Defining Sustainable Scenarios of Development in San Martin, Peru
Executive Summary
April 26th, 2019
Shelbie Draper

The San Martin region in Peru is one of the richest and most biodiverse areas of the
country in terms of agriculture. This region is particularly known for it’s coffee production,
which relies on very specific environmental conditions. Deforestation and climate change have
been the two largest triggers that have left farmers with only three options to continue farming in
a way that sustains them and their families: crop diversification, transition into a new profession
or the use of unsustainable farming techniques. This project is attempting to address some of the
problems that current coffee farmers in San Martin have been struggling with for the past few
years in a way that can promote sustainable farming practices. Through a collaborative workshop
using scenario development, it will be possible to inform stakeholders within the San Martin
coffee region (farmers, local businesses, governmental agencies amongst others) about a
plausible transition into greener methods of farming that will allow them to continue with coffee
as the main source of agricultural production while also incentivizing new economic
opportunities for the region.
Scenario analysis is the process of creating and analyzing different future possibilities
through current trends, data, and values, the creation of a business as usual scenario will be used
to show the projected future of coffee farmers in San Martin should they continue to farm
unsustainably. It does this by using found x- and y- values of a graph to build a scenario in each
the four quadrants that correspond to the increase or decrease of the axes. One of my roles is to
construct the axes before the workshop so that the stakeholders can develop the scenarios based
off of them. The scenarios created will give glimpses into the future, more specifically the future
should they continue to live and act as they do now. The hope is that this should lead them to
understanding that sustainable farming techniques that are adaptive and responsive to the
environment is the most viable solution and will contribute to the development of healthy
communities.
The National Coffee Plan was released in November 2018 by the Peruvian government. This
plan lays out goals and possible strategies the government would like coffee regions to follow in
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order to achieve sustainable coffee crops that allow for healthy communities and a reduction in
poverty. The National Coffee Plan is the guide in the scenario development to create policy
change in accordance with the Peruvian government.
My project is thus the planning and background work that will allow the workshop to take
place at the end of May in Peru. In order for a scenario workshop to be held, information and
preparation has to be done. Because a two-day workshop is not enough time to build scenarios
from scratch, I had to develop the axes needed to start the scenario creation. I also needed to plan
the agenda for the workshop and how the National Coffee Plan will help guide the scenarios
towards policy creation and future action.
For this project, I am working as a student partner with Conservation International, an
organization dedicated to protecting nature for the benefit of humanity. These farmers are the
major stakeholders as they are hoping to maintain coffee farming as their way of life. They value
their family traditions and providing food and opportunity to their children. These values, along
with the recognition that something is wrong in the region in which they farm in regard to the use
of land and the inability to continue using it freely, has brought Conservation International into
San Martin. My role is to prepare for this workshop. In order to do this, I have compiled a
literature review of macro trends in the area as well as past work done by Conservation
International. I also created a list of stakeholders that have been invited to the workshop, their
role and importance, and compiled a list of questions that were used to interview them
beforehand. This was for the purpose of seeing the values of the farmers. I then used the
compiled values and trends of the region to assign two values to the axes of a quadrant-method,
scenario build. This will be used during the workshop to build scenarios with the stakeholders
from each of the quadrants. Since the National Coffee Plan is the guiding policy maker, I also
had to identify key strategies within the document that would lead the workshop beyond scenario
creation into real change for the people of San Martin. The pre-constructed axes will help shape
the scenarios with the stakeholders towards policy change that can help develop a sustainable
future. Finally, I helped construct the agenda for the workshop. This is the schedule that will be
used and followed during the two-day workshop to organize the event and proceedings a s a
whole, as well as establishes the process of creating scenarios with the stakeholders, building off
of my work done before the event itself.
Overall, the final deliverable of the project is a workshop for all of stakeholders involved in
the coffee production within the region of San Martin. Through the workshop all parties can
come together and provide their input for ways in which sustainability can be applied to the
coffee growing methods in practice at the moment. This project has shown the possibility of
workshop creation in another country, as well as the development of the scenario process
beforehand. The quadrant method and scenario creation have not yet been used in San Martin
and this is an excellent opportunity to create a sustainable future in the region. Stakeholder
engagement to this extent and the participation of different groups in the same room will also be
the first in the area.

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Despite several setbacks in the date of the workshop, it has been officially set and will move
forward. My recommendations to the client included addressing the new work plan for a further
workshop date, as well as setting the clear objectives for the workshop. Some modification will
also need to be made to the schedule to ensure the process of scenario creation is done in the
correct order and agrees with each team member. Before the workshop, scripts and exact roles
should also be given to each group and its members. In order to wrap up the workshop, assurance
of future work in the area and continued support needs to be given. The scale of this project can
also increase so that other coffee regions in Peru can work towards the National Coffee Plan.
After the workshop, the work can, and will be, extended by other students. A strategy for
plans following the workshop will need to be constructed and continued monitoring of the
situation in the region as well as planning for any upcoming endeavors towards a more
sustainable future for those in San Martin. Contact information can be given to any student
interested, and a relationship with Conservation International has been formed.

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