Paleoclimate Modeling and the
Drivers of Early Neolithic Expansion
in Mediterranean Europe

Sean M. Bergin
Alexandra E. Miller
School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Arizona State University

The Early Neolithic in the West
Mediterranean

Human Behavioral Responses
to Environmental Stimuli
- Periods of subsistence instability, likely correlate with
periods of climatic instability and variability.
- Extremely variable climatic conditions would inhibit the
success of early neolithic settlement, especially in new
areas.
- Hunter-gatherers are more likely to adopt new resources in
times of resource stability.

Climate Modeling

In the west Mediterranean, nineteen individual climate
stations were modeled for precipitation, and twelve stations
were modeled for temperature.

Some Initial Conclusions
- Temperature and precipitation are relatively static
during the introduction of agropastoral systems.
- This climatic stability would have benefited
colonizers in unfamiliar regions, and may have
encouraged indigenous adoption of resources.
- Initial analysis of local climatic conditions does
indicate changes in September precipitation which
is likely a result of changing storm frequency

Acknowledgements
We would like to thank:
C. Michael Barton
Reid Bryson
Katie McInaney DeWall
Mark Summers
Christina Bergin