Month Year April 2024 2020 Periodic Report Emissions Title Inventory: Errata Here Maricopa County Maricopa County Department Air Quality Human Services and Department Planning Analysis Division Name Maricopa County • Air Quality Department • Division Name • April 2024 Page 1 of 11 Commercial Cooking The Maricopa County Air Quality Department (MCAQD) used the 2020 Wagon Wheel Tool, developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), to estimate commercial cooking emissions for the 2020 Periodic Emissions Inventory (PEI) 1. The 2020 Wagon Wheel Tool used data on the number of restaurants in each county from the Dun & Bradstreet Hoovers Database, which classified restaurants into five types: ethnic food, fast food, family, seafood, and steak & barbeque. Then, the tool used data from a 2001 survey of 655 restaurants, conducted for the California Air Resource Board, to estimate the number of cooking devices and the amount of meat cooked on each type of cooking device at each type of restaurant. Finally, the tool used emission factors for each type of meat and cooking device to estimate emissions from commercial cooking. After the PEI reports were made available for public comment, finalized, and published, EPA notified state and local agencies that the 2020 Wagon Wheel Tool overestimated the total amount of meat cooked in the United States, and the resulting emissions from commercial cooking. EPA identified this problem by comparing the total amount of meat cooked in the United States (estimated using the 2020 Wagon Wheel Tool) to estimates of total meat consumption from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2 The 2020 Wagon Wheel Tool predicted that commercial establishments cooked 82,684,929 tons of meat, including steak, hamburger, poultry, pork, seafood, and other meat products, which is more than double the 38,962,024 tons of meat consumed in the U.S. based on USDA data. Meat Type 2020 Wagon Wheel Tool (tons) USDA Meat Consumption Statistics (tons) Steak 10,659,881 Hamburger 21,403,948 Poultry 25,760,847 18,609,197 Pork 5,297,171 8,498,334 Seafood 9,525,427 2,006,500 Other 10,037,655 227,869 Total 82,684,929 38,962,024 9,620,124 EPA. (2017). Nonpoint Emissions Methodologies and Operator Instructions (NEMO) for Commercial Cooking. Seltzer, Karl. (January 17, 2024). Proposed Cooking Emissions Methods: 2023 National Emissions Inventory. Presentation to the Nonpoint Methods Advisory Group. 1 2 Maricopa County • Air Quality Department • Division Name • April 2024 Page 2 of 11 Method Updates Due to the discrepancy between the meat consumption estimates from the 2020 Wagon Wheel Tool and the USDA statistics, EPA developed a method action plan to refine the commercial cooking methods for the 2023 NEI 3. In the new method, EPA will develop scaling factors for each NEI year based on total retail consumption of meat products from the USDA Food Availability Data System. The scaling factors will assume that 65 percent of meat is consumed at home and 35% of meat is consumed in commercial establishments (including restaurants, schools, food trucks, etc.). The scaling factors will adjust the amount of meat prepared, in each county, at each type of restaurant, and on each type of advice, so that the total amount of each type of meat is equal to 65 percent of the amount of each type of meat consumed per USDA statistics. The draft method action plan includes scaling factors that were developed based on 2020 data as an example of how the scaling factor will be developed and applied for the 2023 NEI. Revised 2020 Emissions Estimates The MCAQD evaluated the information provided by EPA and the revised method action plan and determined that it would be beneficial to revise the commercial cooking estimates in the 2020 PEIs for ozone precursors and particulate matter. The original results indicated that commercial cooking was a significant source of emissions, contributing 6% of particulate matter less than 10 microns in diameter (PM10), 18% of particulate matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (PM2.5), 0.3% (520.7 tons) of volatile organic compounds (VOC), and 0.4% (1,454.2 tons) of carbon monoxide (CO). The 2020 PEI estimates need to be as accurate as possible, because the estimates will be used to project 2026 commercial cooking emissions for the serious ozone plan. In addition, the revised National Ambient Air Quality Standards for particulate matter are generating public interest on sources of PM2.5 emissions. To ensure the accuracy of the estimates, the 2020 commercial cooking emissions were recalculated in accordance with the revised method action plan developed by EPA. The revised estimates indicate that commercial cooking contributes 2.2% of PM10, and 7.3% of PM2.5 in Maricopa County. The revised contribution estimate for PM2.5 from commercial cooking is consistent with research that indicates commercial cooking may contribute ~8% of observed PM2.5 in urban areas. 4 The following table shows revised emissions estimates for commercial cooking in Maricopa County. 3 4 EPA. (2024). Method Action Plan for Commercial Cooking. id. Maricopa County • Air Quality Department • Division Name • April 2024 Page 3 of 11 Annual Emissions (tons/year) Source Category CO VOC PM10 PM2.5 Conveyorized Charbroilers 46.4 14.5 66.5 66.5 Underfired Charbroilers 184.5 61.3 435.7 435.7 Deep-Fat Fryers 52.8 14.7 586.8 586.8 Flat Griddles 17.1 11.6 199.9 199.9 Clamshell Griddles 3.9 0.1 7.9 7.9 Total Commercial Cooking 304.6 102.2 1,296.8 1,296.8 Percent of Total Emissions 0.1% 0.1% 2.2% 7.3% Other Nonpoint Categories While updating the total emissions to include the revised estimates for commercial cooking, MCAQD discovered two linking errors in the spreadsheet where total emissions from all source categories were calculated. These errors were related to the residential wood combustion and fabricated metal categories. Residential Wood Combustion The following table shows original and revised emissions estimates for residential wood combustion in Maricopa County. Annual Emissions (tons/year) PEI for Ozone Precursors Original VOC NOX CO 1,798.6 187.1 11,193.6 PEI for Particulate Matter PM10 PM2.5 NOX 1,666.1 1,620.5 186.1 Maricopa County • Air Quality Department • Division Name • April 2024 SOX 33.9 NH3 91.7 Page 4 of 11 Annual Emissions (tons/year) PEI for Ozone Precursors Revised PEI for Particulate Matter VOC NOX CO 1,784.0 185.5 11,102.5 PM10 PM2.5 NOX SOX 1,660.8 1,615.3 185.5 NH3 33.8 91.4 Fabricated Metals The following table shows original and revised emissions estimates for fabricated metal products manufacturing in Maricopa County. Annual Emissions (tons/year) PEI for Ozone Precursors VOC NOX PEI for Particulate Matter CO PM10 PM2.5 NOX SOX NH3 Original 7.2 8.3 1.6 30.4 12.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 Revised 7.2 1.2 0.3 30.4 12.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 Updated Emissions by Source Category The following table shows the original emissions estimates for point sources, nonroad mobile sources, onroad mobile sources, and biogenic sources, along with revised estimates for nonpoint sources and total emissions. Annual Emissions (tons/year) Ozone Precursors Particulate Matter and Precursors VOC NOX CO PM10 PM2.5 NOX SOX NH3 Point 1,117.6 4,001.0 1,706.7 772.9 649.2 4,001.0 139.6 232.3 Nonpoint 49,737.0 5,417.2 72,990.6 38,791.9 12,657.8 5,417.2 752.3 23,952.3 Nonroad Mobile 7,363.6 13,569.5 110,385.0 Maricopa County • Air Quality Department • Division Name • April 2024 1,102.2 1,056.3 13,569.5 294.4 25.3 Page 5 of 11 Annual Emissions (tons/year) Ozone Precursors VOC NOX Particulate Matter and Precursors CO PM10 Onroad Mobile 12,225.3 18,604.8 170,377.8 17,010.2 Biogenic 79,213.2 1,934.0 4,989.1 0.0 PM2.5 NOX 3,312.8 18,604.8 0.0 1,934.0 SOX NH3 78.6 1,120.4 0.0 0.0 Total 149,656.7 43,526.4 360,449.2 57,677.2 17,676.1 43,526.5 1,264.9 25,330.3 Emissions Maricopa County • Air Quality Department • Division Name • April 2024 Page 6 of 11 Emissions by Source Category VOC Emissions by Source Type 9.2% 13.5% 8.2% 4.9% 4.2% 1.9% 0.7% 1.0% 0.6% 1.2% 1.3% 52.9% Biogenic Consumer and Commercial Products Wildfires Onroad Nonroad Solvent Use Volatile Organic Liquid Storage and Transport Miscellaneous Nonpoint Sources Residential wood combustion Industrial Processes Point Sources Asphalt Application Stationary Fuel Combustion - Natural Gas Commercial Cooking (Revised) Stationary Fuel Combustion - Distillate Oil Waste Disposal Stationary Fuel Combustion - LPG Maricopa County • Air Quality Department • Division Name • April 2024 Page 7 of 11 NOX Emissions by Source Type 9.2% 0.6% 5.1% 31.2% 4.4% 3.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 2.6% 42.7% Onroad Nonroad Point Sources Stationary Fuel Combustion - Natural Gas Biogenic Stationary Fuel Combustion - Distillate Oil Wildfires Stationary Fuel Combustion - LPG Residential wood combustion Industrial Processes Miscellaneous Nonpoint Sources Waste Disposal Maricopa County • Air Quality Department • Division Name • April 2024 Page 8 of 11 PM10 Emissions by Source Type 14.3% 10.7% 1.3% 10.1% 2.9% 0.2% 2.2% 0.1% 26.7% 1.9% 29.5% Onroad Miscellaneous Nonpoint Sources Industrial Processes Wildfires Agriculture Residential wood combustion Commercial Cooking (Revised) Nonroad Point Sources Stationary Fuel Combustion - Distillate Oil Waste Disposal Maricopa County • Air Quality Department • Division Name • April 2024 Page 9 of 11 PM2.5 Emissions by Source Type 9.1% 7.3% 6.2% 6.0% 12.7% 0.6% 5.6% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% 18.7% 29.7% Wildfires Onroad Miscellaneous Nonpoint Sources Residential wood combustion Commercial Cooking (Revised) Industrial Processes Nonroad Agriculture Point Sources Stationary Fuel Combustion - Distillate Oil Waste Disposal Stationary Fuel Combustion - Natural Gas Maricopa County • Air Quality Department • Division Name • April 2024 Page 10 of 11 Title Goes Here Title Goes Here Title Goes Here 1 445 $12,000 2 345 $23,002 3 21 $21,421 4 323 $21,098 5 445 $5,623 6 124 $8,921 7 845 $18,234 Subheading • • • • • • Bulleted list item Bulleted list item Bulleted list item Bulleted list item Bulleted list item Bulleted list item Subheading • • • • • • Bulleted list item Bulleted list item Bulleted list item Bulleted list item Bulleted list item Bulleted list item Subheading • • • • • • Bulleted list item Bulleted list item Bulleted list item Bulleted list item Bulleted list item Bulleted list item Maricopa County Air Quality Department Planning and Analysis Maricopa.gov/AQ Maricopa County • Air Quality Department • Division Name • April 2024 Page 11 of 11