jhk EVALUATION OF ARIZONA'S FATALITY RATE ANALYSIS OF PROCEDURAL ISSUES Prepared for Arizona Department of Transportation Arizona Transportation Research Center Prepared by JHK & Associates and University of Arizona Department of Civil Engineering February 20, 1987 associates jhk a associates TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1. INTRODUCTION 1 2. VEHICLE CLASSIFICATION STUDY PROCEDURES 3 3. VEHICLE CLASS DESIGNATlONS 6 4. VEHICLE DISTRIBUTION FACTORS B Y ROAD CLASS 5. GASOLINE VERSUS DIESEL FUEL VEHICLES IN THE ARIZONA TRAFFIC POPULATION 6. ADOPTION OF MPC FACTORS 7. REFERENCES 1. INTRODUCTION T h e purpose o f t h i s technical memorandum is t o describe t h e results of a c t i v i t i e s t o resolve t h e five procedural issues contained in Chapter 5 of the Interim R e p o r t d a t e d O c t o b e r 30, 1986. T h e resolution of t h e issues is a prerequisite t o t h e finalization of t h e preferred V M T algorithm and i t s validation. A brief summary of t h e issues i s provided below and a description of the analysis a c t i v i t i e s and major conclusions a r e presented in t h e following c h a p t e r s of the memorandum. VEHICLE CLASSIFICATION STUDY PROCEDURES This issue required t h e review of c u r r e n t ADOT d a t a collection procedures for obtaining vehicle classification data. In particular, the procedure f o r sampling vehicle classification d a t a on various road classes and t h e length of t h e data collection period w a s reviewed. T h e review of c u r r e n t ADOT procedures considered t h e research r e p o r t e d in t h e "Vehicle Classification Procedure Study" and the vehicle classification d a t a currently being collected by ADOT. VEHICLE CLASS DESIGNATIONS This issue required t h e review and definition of vehicle t y p e designations for use in t h e manual collection o f vehicle classification data. The c r i t e r i a used t o designate vehicle types was t o minimize t h e variance in mpg within e a c h roadway class. VEHICLE MIX FACTORS BY ROAD CLASS This issue required t h e development of vehicle mix c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s for e a c h roadway class t o b e used i n t h e VMT procedure. A review was conducted of existing classification d a t a and t h e need f o r collection of supplemental data. T h e informat i o n obtained f r o m a n analysis of t h e s e d a t a is used t o verify o r adjust t h e vehicle mix c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s within a given roadway class. jhk associates GASOLINE VERSUS DIESEL FUEL VEHICLES IN THE ARIZONA TRAFFIC POPULATION This issue involved t h e differentiation of diesel vehicles from gasoline vehicles. When c o l l e c t i n g vehicle classification d a t a , differentiation between gasoline and diesel powered vehicles i s difficult and sometimes impossible. The p e r c e n t a g e s of diesel a n d gasoline powered vehicles within t h e t r a f f i c population w e r e reviewed using Arizona vehicle registration d a t a . ADOPTION OF hIPG FACTORS This issue required t h e adoption of a n information source for mpg d a t a selection of mpg e s t i m a t e s by vehicle class. A review of t h e various mpg sources was conducted t o d e t e r m i n e t h e source most appropriate for use in t h e VMT algorithm. 2. VEHICLE CLASSIFICATION STUDY PROCEDURES REVIEW OF ADOT VEHICLE CLASSIFICATION STUDIES The Arizona D e p a r t m e n t of Transportation (ADOT) has a n ongoing program for collecting d a t a on s t a t e w i d e vehicle classifications. Vehicle classification d a t a a r e periodically collected a t 125 locations distributed throughout t h e s t a t e . Vehicles a r e classified by ADOT i n t o t h e following categories: o Automobiles, station wagons, vans with rear windows and motorcycles. o C a m p e r recreational vehicles and motor homes. o School and Transit buses. o Pickup trucks, pickups with shells or campers, panel trucks and vans without r e a r windows. o Single unit trucks with t w o a x l e dual t i r e s or t h r e e axles. o Tractor-Semi Trailer with three, four, or five axles. o Truck and Trailer with four, five, o r six axles. o Truck t r a i n s with five or six axles. T h e number of d a t a collection s i t e s by roadway functional class in rural and urban a r e a s i s shown in Table 1 along with t h e number of miles of e a c h functional c l a s s within t h e s t a t e . F o r t h e years 1979 through 1984, 110 of t h e 125 s i t e s were sampled a t l e a s t o n c e e a c h year. These 110 s i t e s were used in a n analysis of vehicle c l a s s distributions by road class. T h e study sample included 103 s i t e s (93.6 percent) on rural roads and seven s i t e s o n urban roadways. F o r t h e rural roadways, 101 (98 percent) of t h e s i t e s a r e l o c a t e d on t h e four most highly sampled functional classifications (principle arterial-interstate, principle arterial-other, minor arterial, and major collector) and a r e e s t i m a t e d t o a c c o u n t for 81 p e r c e n t of t h e rural VMT. T h e distribution of s i t e s and t h e number of samples taken on e a c h of these four rural classifications was sufficient f o r s t a t i s t i c a l analysis. T h e number of s i t e s and s a m p l e s on t h e remaining t h r e e rural roads and on a l l of t h e urban roads was considered inadequate t o r e p r e s e n t t h e s e functional classes f o r statistical analysis (in t h e next issue). Each s i t e was sampled b e t w e e n 10 and 14 t i m e s during t h e study period. T h e s a m p l e periods w e r e t h r e e consecutive hours beginning between 7:00 AM and 2 0 0 PM. A cursory review of t h e sample indicated t h a t a l l t h e samples were obtained on weekdays. This could bias an analysis of vehicle classification if Saturdays a n d Sundays exhibited a significantly different vehicle mix. The existence of such a d i f f e r e n c e c a n n o t b e determined with available information. Table 1 NUMBER O F ADOT VEHICLE CLASSIFICATION SITES, AND MILES OF ROADWAY BY ROADWAY FUNCTIONAL CLASSlFICATlON Rural Hirhways Functional Class #I S i t e s Miles* Urban Highways #/ S i t e s Miles* Principle Arterial--Interstate 28 1,021 3 129 Principle Arterial--Other 27 1,075 3 37 1 Minor A r t e r i a l 39 2,253 1 963 Major Collector 20 4,071 NA NA Minor Collector 2 3,825 NA NA NA 2 Collector NA 924 Local 0 55,065 0 6,437 Total 116 67,313 9 8,824 Source: Highway S t a t i s t i c s 1984, USDOT, FHWA, Washington, D.C., NA = Not Applicable + 1985. A previous study f o r ADOT (1) indicated t h a t t h e hourly variation of vehicle class i s minor and concluded t h a t t h e p e r c e n t of vehicles by class could be considered c o n s t a n t throughout t h e day on rural highways. Therefore, t h e sampling period and t h e r a t e of sampling f o r this study a r e considered m o r e t h a n adequate t o base conclusions regarding vehicle class characteristics. T h e previous study did not e v a l u a t e t h e p o t e n t i a l s h i f t in vehicle mix by day of week. CONCLUSION The c u r r e n t ADOT program t o sample s t a t e w i d e vehicle classification d a t a is adequate as a s o u r c e of vehicle classification information f o r t h e following rural roadway classifications. jhk associates o Principle arterial--interstate o Principle arterial--other o Minor arterial o Major collector Since these classifications are estimated to contain over 80 percent of the rural VMT, current ADOT data provide an adequate database for analyzing and aggregating vehicle classes by rural roadway class. ADOT vehicle classification data are insufficient for performing similar analyses on urban road classes and limited supplemental data should be collected and analyzed a s a part of this study. The current ADQT vehicle classification program should be expanded to include a representative sample of vehicle classification data on urban road classes. 3. VEHICLE CLASS DESlGNATlONS METHODOLOGY S t a t i s t i c a l analyses w e r e performed on the ADOT vehicle classification d a t a b a s e described in t h e previous chapter. Analyses were performed only on the vehicle classification distributions f o r t h e foIlowing rural classes of roadway. o Principle arterials-interstate o Principle arterials--other o Minor a r t e r i a l s o Major collectors ADOT d a t a w e r e not available in sufficient numbers t o allow t h e analysis for other rural classes o r urban highways. The vehicle classifications t h a t were analyzed included the eight classes currently used in ADOT vehicle classification studies ( r e f e r t o the list of vehicle t y p e s in C h a p t e r 2). The o b j e c t i v e of t h e analysis was t o d e t e r m i n e if s e l e c t e d classes of vehicles c a n b e combined t o r e d u c e t h e number of vehicle classes in t h e VMT algorithm. T h e c r i t e r i a used t o establish the vehicle types t o be used in t h e VhlT algorithm were: o Physical c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s m u s t allow f o r t h e visual discrimination of vehicle types. o Vehicle t y p e designations should conform t o t h e existing classification s c h e m e t o allow t h e use of existing d a t a and existing d a t a collection procedures, if feasible. o o o Vehicle classes should represent significant portions of t h e vehicle population. T h e r e should be significantly different fuel consumption characteristics b e t w e e n vehicle classes. Vehicle classes should a t t e m p t t o minimize t h e variance of fuel consumption c h a a c t e r i s t i c s within a particular road class. CONCLUSION T h e analysis resulted in t h e aggregation of t h e following four classes of vehicles. jhk o a associates Automobiles including: passenger cars, s t a t i o n wagons, vans with rear windows and motorcycles. o Light t r u c k s including: pickup trucks, pickups with shells o r campers, panel trucks, and vans without r e a r windows. o Medium trucks including: c a m p e r recreational vehicles, mobile homes, school a n d t r a n s i t buses, and single unit t r u c k s with t w o axle dual t i r e s or t h r e e axles. o Heavy t r u c k s including: tractor-semi trailer with three, four or five axles, truck a n d trailer with four, five, or six axles, and t r a i n s with f i v e or six axles. T h e following c o m m e n t s a r e provided a s justification f o r aggregation of t h e a b o v e vehicle classes. o T h e automobile classification exhibits t h e l a r g e s t within group variation in vehicle mpg. This is due t o t h e large variation in vehicle mpg for passenger c a r s of d i f f e r e n t types, and due t o t h e combining of vans with r e a r windows and motorcycles into t h e "single vehicle" classification. Vans with r e a r windows exhibit vehicle and rnpg c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t h a t a r e similar t o those of light t r u c k s and therefore should logically be grouped i n t o the light t r u c k classification. However, t h e existing ADOT vehicle classification s c h e m e is based on t h e travel function (or purpose of vehicle utilization) and physical characteristics of t h e vehicle. Hence, vans with r e a r windows, which a r e typically used for carrying passengers, a r e grouped with o t h e r passenger vehicles. T h e proportion of vans within the automobile group is unknown, and could n o t be disaggregated from the ADOT data. The proportion of motorcycles within t h e ADOT d a t a is also unknown. However, a previous ADOT study (1) collected vehicle classification d a t a with motorcycles as a s e p a r a t e group. This study indicated t h a t motorcycles a c c o u n t e d f o r a maximum of 1.5 p e r c e n t and a minimum of 0.6 p e r c e n t of t h e vehicles on rural roads, with a mean value of 1.1 percent. Thus, t h e influence of motorcycle mpg c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s is not significant within t h e automobile classification on rural roads. Furthermore, t h e bias produced by motorcycles may b e o f f s e t somewhat by t h e inclusion of t h e vans with r e a r windows in t h i s group ( t h e proportion of vans in this c l a s s i s a l s o very small). o Pickup trucks with c a m p e r s a r e grouped with c a m p e r recreational vehicles in t h e ADOT classification schedule. A D 0 7 procedures require d a t a c o l l e c t o r s t o c o u n t pickups with c a m p e r s i n t h e classification with other pickups and v a n s without r e a r windows. Hence, t h e designation of this vehicle t y p e in t h e light t r u c k category. T h e light t r u c k s satisfy a11 of t h e c r i t e r i a f o r designation as a s e p a r a t e vehicle classification. o C a m p e r recreational vehicles and motor h o m e s a r e , in general, single unit t r u c k s with modified bodies. These vehicles generally have t h e weight and o p e r a t i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of single unit t r u c k s as well. Therefore, i t was logical to a g g r e g a t e t h i s vehicle type i n t o t h e medium truck classification. This s a m e reasoning w a s applied t o t h e grouping of t r a n s i t a n d school buses i n t o t h e medium t r u c k classification. jhk o 6. associatcs A review o f the available fuel consumption characteristics (see discussion of mpg values) indicated that above a weight of approximately 19,000 pounds, large trucks exhibit very similar mph characteristics regardless o f t h e other physical differences in the vehicles. Therefore, tractor-semi trailers, truck and trailers, and truck trains may be aggregated into a "heavy truck" classification. jhk associates 4, VEHICLE DISTRlBUTION FACTORS BY ROAD CLASS The analysis of vehicle distributions concentrated on t h e four rural functional classifications f o r which t h e r e w e r e sufficient data. These are: o Principle Arterial--Interstate o Principle Arterial--Other o Minor A r t e r i a l o Major Collector Statistical analyses were conducted t o t e s t f o r differences in vehicle mix between roadway functional classifications. CONCLUSlONS The analysis produced t h e following conclusions: o Vehicle distributions f o r rural i n t e r s t a t e s and rural non-interstates (aggregated) were significantly different. o Vehicle distributions f o r t h e rural non-interstates were significantly different, due primarily t o t h e large vehicle classification sample size available f o r analysis. Practically, however, t h e distributions do not differ substantially when t h e p e r c e n t a g e of vehicle types a r e compared across road class. Table 2 shows t h e percentages of the vehicle types identified in t h e preceeding c h a p t e r f o r t h e t h r e e classes of rural non-interstates. Table 2 VEHICLE CLASS DISTRIBUTIONS FOR RURAL NON-INTERSTATES Rural Road C l a s s Auto - Principle-Other Major Arterial Major Collector Average 56.8 56.2 59.3 57.2 Vehicle Class Light Truck Medium Truck 8.0 30.5 8.3 33.2 5.9 31.9 7.6 31.8 Heavy Truck 4.7 2.3 2.9 3.5 A sensitivity analysis f o r t h e r u r a l non-interstate group was performed t o e s t i m a t e weighted rnpg using a n a v e r a g e (combined--over t h e rural noni n t e r s t a t e s ) percentage versus t h e individual p e r c e n t a g e s f o r e a c h road class. T h e weighted mpg's produced in t h i s analysis differed by 0.3 mpg o r by 1.6 percent. This relatively small difference justifies t h e aggregation of rural non-interstates despite t h e observed s t a t i s t i c a l difference. o T h e vehicle distribution on rural i n t e r s t a t e s was very stable over t h e six y e a r study period with very small fluctuations a b o u t t h e mean in the p e r c e n t vehicles by vehicle type. Vehicle distributions on rural noni n t e r s t a t e s showed a similar t i m e stability. Adjustments in vehicle distribution t r e n d s over t i m e is n o t warranted. o T h e vehicle distribution by month of y e a r by roadway functional classification i s significantly different. All vehicle classes w e r e shown t o f l u c t u a t e significantly with t h e exception of medium-duty trucks. Aggregation of t h e d a t a i n t o t h e "rural interstate" and "rural non-interstate" classes verifies this finding. T h e distribution of vehicle mix displayed in t h e s e f i g u r e s suggest4 seasonal variations in t h e s e characteristics. o Vehicle mix differences on rural roadways by region within t h e S t a t e was shown t o be statistically significant. However, d u e t o t h e large database used in t h e analysis, practical significance (particularly, where t h e use o f f u e l efficiency d a t a is concerned) was n o t achieved. The evaluation of t h e regional variation in vehicle mix ws performed t o d e t e r m i n e if t h e application of a s t a t e w i d e 'Impg" value f o r a defined roadway class was appropriate or if significant regional differences in vehicle class existed t o result in s p e c i f i c "mpg" values by region of state. Regional boundaries used were identical t o those used in t h e previous ADOT study "Vehicle Classification P r o c e d u r e Study" (FHWAfAZ84/195,1I). T h e vehicle mix c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s by region a r e displayed in T a b l e s 3 and 4 f o r rural i n t e r s t a t e s and rural non-interstates, respectively. o Statistically significant differences in vehicle mix w e r e observed by region and season of y e a r f o r t h e aggregation of "rural interstates" and ''rural noni n t e r s t a t e " classifications. These differences, however, were not significant f o r f u e l efficiency calculations. T h e characteristics a r e displayed in Tables 5 and 6. Seasonal designations w e r e a s follows: Winter: December, January, February Spring: March, April, May Summer: June, Suly, August Fall: September, October, November Based on t h e s e findings, vehicle mix sampling should t a k e into account t h e seasonal and regional variation within t h e s t a t e . However, t h e e f f e c t of t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s on fuel efficiency (mpg) i s not considered significant. Similar type analyses will b e conducted on t h e urban roadway classifications following completion of t h e d a t a collection e f f o r t on urban roadways. Table 3 VEHICLE MIX (%) BY REGION FOR INTERSTATE HIGHWAYS Region Light Truck Medium Truck Heavy Truck Weighted MPG - Auto - 1 56.5 14.9 9.4 19.2 16.7 2 56.4 18.8 9.5 15.4 17.1 3 58.8 - 17.3 8.1 15.7 17.3 57.7 17.1 8.8 16.4 17.1 TOTAL Table 4 t,,;,,,. VEHICLE MIX Region I (%) BY REGION FOR4INTERSTATE HIGHWAYS Functional Class Principal ArterialOther Minor Arterial Major Collector Light Truck Medium Truck Heavy Truck Weighted MPG 54.9 3 1.6 8.5 4.9 -- 53.7 62.9 35.1 29.1 8.5 5.8 2.6 2.2 -- Auto -- 18.6 Principal ArterialOther Minor Arterial Major Collector 58.6 24.0 8.7 8.7 59.1 56.8 30.3 8.4 34.6 5.8 2.2 2.7 -- --- 18.8 Principal ArterialOther hlinor Arterial Major Collector TOTAL 58.0 31.0 7.3 3.6 -- 51.9 58.8 57.4 38.8 31.5 31.8 7.1 6.0 2.2 --- 7.6 3.5 18.8 - 3.6 - - - Table 5 VEHICLE MIX BY REGION AND SEASON FOR INTERSTATE ROADWAYS Region Season I Winter Spring Summer Fall TOTAL Winter Spring Summer Fal I TOTAL Winter Spring Summer Fall TOTAL Auto Light Truck - Medium Truck - Heavy Truck - Total - Table 6 VEHICLE MIX BY REGION AND SEASON FOR NON-INTERSTATE ROADWAYS Region Season 1 Winter Spring Summer Fall TOTAL Winter Spring Summer Fall TOTAL Winter Spring Summer Fall TOTAL Auto Light Truck Medium Truck Heavy Truck 31 .O 33.1 29.0 37.8 32.4 30.6 30.5 29.7 31.1 30.5 29.3 33.3 32.1 36.3 32.3 6.8 8.4 8.0 8.2 8.0 8.4 7.9 6.8 7.9 7.8 6.7 7.4 6.9 7.0 3.3 4.0 3.1 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.5 2.9 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.6 3.0 4.2 3.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - 7.0 jhk associates 5. GASOLINE VERSUS DIESEL FUEL VEHICLES IN THE ARIZONA TRAFFIC POPULATION METHODOLOGY The analysis of fuel t y p e usage by vehicle distributions concentrated on three major vehicle types. They were: o L i g h t d u t y vehicles (typically passenger cars). o Light d u t y t r u c k s (truck-type vehicles having gross vehicle weights of 8,500 pounds o r less). o Heavy duty vehicles (truck-type vehicles having gross vehicle weights g r e a t e r t h a n 8,500 pounds). I t should b e noted t h a t t h e s e classes a r e comparable t o t h e ADOT vehicle classification s c h e m e s defined earlier, i.e., light duty vehicles consist of all autotype vehicles, light duty trucks r e l a t e t o the light truck class, and heavy duty vehicles c o m p r i s e t h e medium a n d heavy duty truck classes. Comparisons of r e c e n t (7/13/86) Arizona vehicle registration d a t a were conducted to d e t e r m i n e t h e p e r c e n t a g e of gasoline fuel versus diesel fuel type usage between vehicle classes. A similar comparison f o r validation purposes was conducted on 1985 (6/30/85) Arizona registration statistics. Table 7 summarizes the comparisons. CON CL US1ONS The findings indicate t h a t Jow percentages of diesel fuel use exist among light duty vehicles a n d light duty trucks. Approximately 1.50 t o 2.00 percent of vehicles registered i n Arizona in t h e s e classes a r e diesel fuel users. T h e i m p a c t of this small p e r c e n t a g e of diesel fuel users o n t h e fuel efficiency (mpg) characteristics of these vehicle c l a s s e s would be e x p e c t e d t o b e statistically insignificant and, therefore, may b e e x e m p t e d f r o m use in t h e VMT model calculations. However, f o r t h e heavy d u t y vehicles (comprising t h e medium and heavy duty truck types), diesel f u e l use i s significant. S t a t e w i d e 1986 registration d a t a indicates t h a t o v e r one-third of t h e vehicles in this class a r e diesel fuel users. While t h e vehicle r e g i s t r a t i o n data d o e s n o t readily s e p a r a t e diesel use by medium-duty or heavy-duty t r u c k , a similar p e r c e n t a g e mix (diesel vs. gasoline) i s proposed f o r both jhk types. associates For model purposes, a two-thirds "gasoline" and one-third "diesel1' fuel use percentage split is proposed. As annual figures a r e avaiIable from the Motor Vehicles Division, t h i s split should be checked and revised a s necessary. Table 7 DIESEL VERSUS GASOLlNE FUEL TYPE USAGE AMONG ARIZONA-REGISTERED VEHICLES Vehicle Type P l a c e of Registration Light Duty Vehicles Maricopa County Pima County Yuma County Statewide t i g h t Duty Trucks Maricopa County Pima County Yuma County Statewide Heavy Duty Maricopa Vehicles County Pima County Yuma County Statewide Total Vehicles DieselUse Vehicles Sb Diesel Total Vehicles DieselO/b Use Vehicles Diesel - jhk a associates 6. ADOPTION OF MPC FACTORS METHODOLOGY The analysis of t h i s issue included a l i t e r a t u r e review of various sources of fuel efficiency (mpg) d a t a f o r t h e vehicle classes described in t h e earlier portions of this report. In addition, adjustment f a c t o r s t o r e f l e c t environmental impacts, vehicle type and age, driving habits (urban vs. rural), and o t h e r a r e a s were researched t o fully identify reliable base 'Irnpg'' estimates. CONCLUSIONS The analysis of this issue resulted in the following key conclusions: o The key source of base "mpg" d a t a for passenger vehicles (autos) i s d a t a published annually by t h e EPA. These d a t a a r e based primariiy on new vehicle testing. Adjustment f a c t o r s f o r vehicle population a g e , on-road use (urban vs. rural driving percentage), a n d regional/seasonal type i m p a c t s have been developed in key research e f f o r t s conducted over t h e years. o T h e key source of base "mpg" d a t a for t h e t r u c k classifications (i.e., light, medium, and heavy) i s d a t a published by United S t a t e s D e p a r t m e n t of : inventory and C o m m e r c e in i t s annual c e n s u s of ~ r a n s ~ o r t a t i o nTruck Use Survey. D a t a a r e available on a national and individual s t a t e basis and is supplied by t h e trucking industry as a requisite f o r highway user t a x purposes. T h e d a t a i s essentially pro-rated based on fuel efficiency ranges. T h e use of individual state-registered d a t a limits t h e regional/seasonal a d j u s t m e n t needs. Furthermore, t h e d a t a a c c o u n t s f o r ~ n - ~ o ausage d and vehicle a g e considerations. F o r use in t h e V M T model, "mpg" c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a r e similar for Arizona-registered t r u c k s and n o n - ~ r i z o n a r e g i s t e r e d t r u c k s travelling within t h e S t a t e . jhk a usocirtcs 7. REFERENCES 1. Matthias,.3.S. and A.G. Dean, "Vehicle Classification Procedure Study," Arizona Department o f Transportation Report No. FHWAIAZ-841195, I, Final Report, June, 1984 2. Highway Statistics 1984, USDOT, FH WA, Washington, D.C., 1985.