Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan Working Paper 2: Future Conditions August 2015 Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan This report was funded in part through grants from the Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation. The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the data, and for the use or adaptation of previously published material, presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the Arizona Department of Transportation or the Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation. This report does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation. Trade or manufacturers’ names that may appear herein are cited only because they are considered essential to the objectives of the report. The U.S. government and the State of Arizona do not endorse products or manufacturers. Working Paper 2: Future Conditions Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1. STUDY OVERVIEW ......................................................................................................... 1 Study Area Overview .................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Study Process ............................................................................................................................................................................... 3 2. FUTURE SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS ............................................................................. 4 Planned Developments ................................................................................................................................................................ 4 Population, Housing Unit, and Employment Forecasts ................................................................................................................. 5 Traffic Analysis Zones ................................................................................................................................................................... 6 3. FUTURE TRANSPORTATION CONDITIONS ......................................................................... 11 State Route 260 Programmed Improvements ............................................................................................................................ 11 Committed Roadway Network ................................................................................................................................................... 11 Traffic Forecasting Methodology ................................................................................................................................................ 12 Future Traffic Conditions ............................................................................................................................................................ 12 4. FUTURE MULTIMODAL CONDITIONS ................................................................................ 17 Transit ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 17 Bicycle and Pedestrian Needs ..................................................................................................................................................... 18 5. SUMAMRY OF FINDINGS .............................................................................................. 19 Working Paper 2: Future Conditions i Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan LIST OF TABLES Page 2.1: Projected Study Area Population and Housing Units (2015 - 2040) .............................................................................................. 5 2.2: Projected Study Area Employment (2015 – 2040) ........................................................................................................................ 6 3.1: Funded Roadway Improvement Projects .................................................................................................................................... 11 4.1: Persons Below Poverty Level and Persons with No Vehicles ....................................................................................................... 17 LIST OF FIGURES Page 1.1: Study Area .................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 1.2: Study Process ................................................................................................................................................................................ 3 2.1: Potential Growth Areas................................................................................................................................................................. 4 2.2: Projected 2025 Housing Unit Density............................................................................................................................................ 7 2.3: Projected 2040 Housing Unit Density............................................................................................................................................ 8 2.4: Projected 2025 Employment Density ............................................................................................................................................ 9 2.5: Projected 2040 Employment Density .......................................................................................................................................... 10 3.1: Scheduled State Route 260 Widening Project ............................................................................................................................. 11 3.2: 2025 No Build Level of Congestion.............................................................................................................................................. 15 3.3: 2040 No Build Level of Congestion.............................................................................................................................................. 16 Working Paper 2: Future Conditions ii Study Overview Chapter 1 Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan STUDY AREA OVERVIEW Covering 673 square miles of land, the Verde Valley is located in the geographic center of Arizona approximately 100 miles north of the Phoenix metropolitan area. Voted by the USA Weekend as “America’s Most Beautiful Place”, the Verde Valley is situated along the scenic Verde River and incorporates portions of the Coconino and Prescott National Forest. Due to the region’s natural, historical, and cultural attractions, the region sustains a thriving tourist industry. Connected by a network of state and local roads, which work together as a single interconnected system, the Verde Valley includes the following communities: • Town of Camp Verde • Town of Clarkdale • City of Cottonwood • Town of Jerome • City of Sedona • Yavapai-Apache Nation • Village of Oak Creek, Cornville, Lake Montezuma, and Verde Village Purpose and Need The primary purpose of this study is to develop a regionally cohesive, long-range transportation plan that serves as a guide for Verde Valley Transportation Planning Organization’s (VVTPO) participating agencies when making future land use and multimodal transportation improvement project decisions. The need for this study stems directly from VVTPO member jurisdiction’s need to determine existing system performance, increase economic vitality, improve community livability, and enhance transportation conditions along the regional transportation routes. The 2009 Verde Valley Multimodal Transportation Study (VVMTS) was originally developed to guide the implementation of transportation improvements in the Verde Valley. Optimistic economic projections and the ability to obtain project funding lead local agencies and the VVTPO to presume that the region would experience significant growth that would require numerous transportation improvements. Due to the slowing of economic growth, dramatic changes in funding availability, and updated local planning studies, it is essential that VVTPO member jurisdictions have an accurate assessment of the performance of major roads in their respective jurisdictions as well as a planning tool for programming the region’s transportation improvements. 1 Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan Figure 1.1: Study Area Working Paper 2: Future Conditions 2 Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan STUDY PROCESS The development of a transportation plan is a technical, collaborative process that involves affected parties within the Verde Valley, including local jurisdictions, regional agencies, stakeholders, and the general public. For this study, six key stages are followed in order to ultimately develop a regionally cohesive, fiscally constrained improvement plan. Throughout the process, the study team will maintain consistent contact with the TAC, and stakeholders and will include extensive public outreach efforts. Figure 1.2 illustrates the process that is utilized for this study. The first working paper, Working Paper 1: Existing Conditions, presented an inventory and analysis of current socioeconomic and transportation conditions in the study area. The existing conditions inventory and analysis presented in Working Paper 1 assists in identifying existing transportation system deficiencies, issues, and needs. The current conditions discussed in Working Paper 1 included: land use, socioeconomic conditions, environmental concerns, roadway system characteristics and conditions, bridge conditions, crash data analysis, traffic volumes and congestion levels, and alternative modes of transportation. The purpose of this future conditions document is to forecast realistic population, housing, and employment growth and to determine this growth’s effect on the area’s transportation system. This document will assess the potential strain on the study area’s transportation system in the future horizon years if no transportation improvements are implemented. The future horizon years for the Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan are 2025 and 2040. Figure 1.2 illustrates the process that is utilized for this study. Figure 1.2: Study Process Working Paper 2: Future Conditions 3 Future Socioeconomic Conditions Chapter 2 Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan This section summarizes the future land use and socioeconomic conditions for the study area. PLANNED DEVELOPMENTS Based on previous planning documents and input received from local officials, planned developments and potential timeframes were identified. Additionally, private lands with the potential for development were also identified. Figure 2.1 illustrates planned development and potential growth areas.  Major Residential Development Areas Figure 2.1: Potential Growth Areas o Verde Santa Fe North (southeast of SR 89A/Cornville Road)– master plan community that could support 2,050 residences and 118 acres of commercial development o Mesquite Hills (southwest of SR89A/Mingus Avenue)– 425 unit residential subdivision o Mountain Gate master plan community (Clarkdale) – buildout o Grey Fox (Main Street Cottonwood) – 99-unit residential subdivision o Potential annexation of State Trust Land by the City of Cottonwood northwest of SR 89A/Cornville Road  Major Commercial and Industrial Growth Areas o Yavapai-Apache Nation commercial development along SR 260 o SR 260 (Cherry Creek Road to Finnie Flat Road) o SR 260 (South of SR 89A) o SR 89A (Clarkdale Parkway to Black Hills Drive) o Commercial and tourist lodging in Sedona Uptown and West Sedona o Clarkdale Metals and Salt River Materials Group Cement Plant expansion o 200 acres south of Sedona Wastewater Treatment Plant for mixed use development. The Dells Land use Work Group is tasked with evaluating options and recommendation for land use at the Wastewater Treatment Plant. 4 Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan POPULATION, HOUSING UNIT, AND EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS Forecasting future socioeconomic conditions allows planners to anticipate changes in future travel demand and to envision potential solutions. Development of rational projections for population, housing units, and employment for each horizon year is vital to the process of forecasting realistic traffic volumes. For this study, the Arizona State Demographer's Office population forecasts are being utilized to estimate future population projects for the 10- and 25-year horizons. The State Demographer’s Office estimates that the Verde Valley study area will have a population of 83,371 by 2025 and a population of 97,124 by 2040. Table 2.1 shows a tabular summary of the historical and projected population and housing units in the study area. Table 2.1: Projected Study Area Population and Housing Units (2015 – 2040) 2015 Estimates 2025 Estimates 2040 Estimates Housing Housing Total Pop. Total Pop. Total Pop. Housing Units Units Units Unincorporated Yavapai County 32,068 16,811 40,210 20,992 47,803 24,956 (Study Area Only) Town of Camp Verde 11,191 4,864 12,789 5,559 14,497 6,301 Town of Clarkdale 4,251 2,136 5,023 2,524 5,848 2,939 City of Cottonwood 11,649 6,066 13,574 7,068 15,633 8,141 Town of Jerome 442 290 442 290 442 290 City of Sedona 10,312 6,545 11,333 7,193 12,901 8,189 Study Area 69,913 36,712 83,371 43,626 97,124 50,816 Source: Arizona Department of Administration – employment and Population Statistics Figures 2.2 and 2.3 illustrate the projected housing unit densities for 2025 and 2040, respectively. As illustrated in the figures, the highest population and housing unit densities will remain in Cottonwood, Sedona, and the Village of Oak Creek. Due to surrounding land being owned by the US National Forest communities are limited to their growth area and many locations will have no housing units. Working Paper 2: Future Conditions 5 Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan Employment Forecasts There are no known sources for future employment projects; however, utilizing planned development data provided by local jurisdictions future employment projections can be developed. Currently, the study area has an employment to population ratio of 0.40 . For this study, it is assumed that this ratio will remain constant for the future horizon years. Based on this assumption the study area is expected to have a total employment of 33,817 by 2025 and an employment of 38,971 by 2040. These total employment numbers were distributed into categories based on the type of services provided by the employer. For this study, the following employment categories were utilized: retail, office, service, industrial, public, elementary/middle/high school, college, lodging, and casino. Employment associated with tourism and services are assumed to continue to dominate employment trends through 2040. Table 2.2 shows a tabular summary of the historical and projected employment within the study area. Figures 2.4 and 2.5 illustrate the projected housing unit densities for 2025 and 2040, respectively. Table 2.2: Projected Study Area Employment (2015 – 2040) 2015 2025 Estimates 2040 Estimates Total Total Employ. Pop. Total Pop. Total Employ. Total Pop. Total Employ. 32,068 5,413 40,210 6,371 47,803 7,531 11,191 4,251 11,649 442 10,312 69,913 4,869 1,205 9,112 295 8,649 29,543 12,789 5,023 13,574 442 11,333 83,371 5,564 1,437 10,618 322 9,505 33,817 14,497 5,848 15,633 442 12,901 97,124 6,307 1,690 12,228 395 10,820 38,971 Unincorporated Yavapai County (Study Area Only) Town of Camp Verde Town of Clarkdale City of Cottonwood Town of Jerome City of Sedona Study Area TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES For this study, a regional travel demand model was utilized to estimate current traffic volumes and to forecast future traffic conditions for the 2025 and 2040 horizon years. Population, housing units, and employment categories were inventoried for each Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) in the study area. TAZs are geographic subdivisions of the study area bounded by roads, political boundaries, natural and man-made geographical constraints (such as rivers, washes, etc.). The model included a total of 206 TAZs within the study area. Working Paper 2: Future Conditions 6 Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan Figure 2.2: Projeced 2025 Housing Unit Density Working Paper 2: Future Conditions 7 Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan Figure 2.3: Projeced 2040 Housing Unit Density Working Paper 2: Future Conditions 8 Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan Figure 2.4: Projeced 2025 Employment Density Working Paper 2: Future Conditions 9 Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan Figure 2.5: Projeced 2040 Employment Density Working Paper 2: Future Conditions 10 Future Transportation Conditions Chapter 3 Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan This section presents future traffic volume projections and the analysis of traffic capacity deficiencies. Future traffic volume projections are based on the 2025 and 2040 socioeconomic conditions and existing transportation system conditions. STATE ROUTE 260 PROGRAMMED IMPROVEMENTS ADOT is currently in the beginning phases of upgrading a nine-mile segment of SR 260 from a two-lane roadway to a fourlane, divided highway between Thousand Trails Road and I-17 in Camp Verde (mile posts 209.08-218.39). When complete, SR 260 will be a continuous four-lane divided highway between I-17 and Cottonwood and will include seven roundabouts. Key project elements include:  Construction of seven full-access roundabout intersections at Thousand Trails Road, Coury Drive, MP 214, MP 215, Cherry Creek Road, Horseshoe Bend Road, and Wilshire Drive.  Each roundabout is approximately 35 feet larger in diameter than the Cottonwood, Clarkdale and Sedona roundabouts and will allow a WB-67 truck (semi-trucks with 53 foot trailers) to stay in their dedicated lane while traveling through the roundabout. Figure 3.1: Scheduled State Route 260 Widening Project Source: ADOT Multimodal Planning Division COMMITTED ROADWAY NETWORK Currently, several roadway projects have been funded and programmed for completion. To identify potential future traffic capacity deficiencies, a roadway network of committed improvements were developed for analysis against projected 2025 and 2040 socioeconomic conditions. In the following traffic condition analysis section, this committed network is utilized to assess how well the reigon’s roadway network performs in 2025 and 2040. Table 3.1 outlines the funded roadway improvements included in the committed roadway network Table 3.1: Funded Roadway Improvement Projects Project Location Improvement SR 260 (Thousand Trails Road to I-17) Widen to four-lanes with 7 roundabouts (see section above) Mingus Avenue (Willard Street to 10th Street) One lane each direction, center-turn lane, sidewalks, bike lanes Mingus Avenue (10th Street to SR 89A) One lane each direction, center-turn lane, sidewalks, bike lanes SR 260/ Industrial Drive Construct roundabout 11 Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHODOLOGY The primary purpose of forecasting traffic volumes is to estimate the additional travel demand added to existing roadways and to forecast congestion levels due to projected population and employment growth. In addition, this analysis provides valuable insight into potential transportation solutions. A regional travel demand model was utilized to estimate future traffic conditions. Travel demand models are utilized to estimate travel conditions based on population, employment, and roadway network characteristics. These travel demand models utilize trip generations to estimate how many trips are created and attracted between homes and activity centers. Steps to develop a travel demand model include:  Develop a roadway network of committed improvements (network includes characteristics such as the number of lanes, posted speed limits, functional classification, etc.)  Allocate projected socioeconomic conditions and land use categories to specific Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZ)  Generate existing vehicle trips based on land use conditions  Distribute vehicle trips to TAZs  Assign the vehicle trips to the street network  Validate model utilizing existing traffic count data A technical memo will be developed that describes the structure of the travel demand model, model parameters, model input and output data, and model validation. FUTURE TRAFFIC CONDITIONS Estimations of traffic conditions were developed based on projected socioeconomic conditions presented in Chapter 2. The future forecasts presented in this section represent traffic volumes for the committed roadway network (No-Build scenario). This analysis helps evaluate how roadways perform if no roadway improvements are made for each of the 2025 and 2040horizon years. Similar to the existing level of congestion, roadway performance is expressed in terms of Level of Service (LOS). In general for rural areas, LOS A and B represent little to no congestion, or that the roadway is “below capacity”. Heavy congestion refers to a roadway that are nearing or above the capacity levels of a roadway. Road segments that have the highest traffic volumes are not necessarily the most congested, as some segments can carry higher amounts of traffic because they have more lanes. Project 2025 Traffic Conditions Figure 3.2 displays the projected 2025 daily traffic volumes and the congestion levels for the committed roadway network, if no other roadway improvements are made (No-Build). Roadways that are reaching capacity levels and may experience congestion include:  At or Above Capacity (LOS E & LOS F) o SR 179 (Chapel Road to Ranger Road) o SR 179 (at the I-17 interchange) o Beaver Creek Road (South of I-17) o Cornville Road (East of SR 89A) o Jacks Canyon Road (East of SR 179) Working Paper 2: Future Conditions o Montezuma Castle Highway (North of Finnie Flat Road and South of I-17) o Montezuma Castle Highway/Main Street/Finnie Flat Road o Lake Montezuma Avenue/Beaver Creek Road (I-17 to Rimrock Airport) o Verde Valley School Road (West of SR 179) 12 Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan  Near Capacity (LOS C & LOS D) o I-17 (Middle Verde Road to Cornville Road) o SR 89A: Cement Plant Road to Black Hills Drive, Main St to SR 179 o SR 179: Beaverhead Flat Road to Wild Horse Mesa Drive, Verde Valley School Road to Chapel Road o SR 260: SR 89A to Western Drive, north of I-17 o Beaver Creek Road (East of Montezuma Lake Road) o Bell Rock Boulevard (West of SR 179) o Black Hills Drive o Camino Real (south of SR 89A) o Cliffside Trail o Coffee Pot Road o Cornville Road (Beaverhead Flat Road to east of SR 89A) o Dry Creek Road o Finnie Flat Road o Fir Street (West of Camino Real) o Jacks Canyon Road (East of SR 179) o Main Street (Camp Verde) o Main Street (Cottonwood): north of SR 89A o Mingus Avenue: west of SR 89A, Main Street to Cornville Road o Montezuma Castle Hwy o Sixth Street (Mingus Avenue to Cottonwood Drive) o Twelfth Street (south of 89A) o Montezuma Lake Road (East and West of Beaver Creek Road) o Page Springs Road  Below Capacity (LOS A & LOS B): All other roadways perform at a LOS of B or greater Project 2040 Traffic Conditions Figure 3.3 displays the projected 2040 daily traffic volumes and the congestion levels for the committed roadway network, if no other roadway improvements are made (No-Build). Roadways that are reaching capacity levels and may experience congestion include:  At or Above Capacity (LOS E & LOS F) o SR 89A (North of Black Hills Drive) o SR 179 (Intersection with I-17) o SR 179 (SR 89A to Bell Rock Blvd) o Beaver Creek Road o Black Hills Drive (west of SR 89A) o Camino Real (south of Fir Street) o Cornville Road (east of SR 89A) o Dry Creek Road (north of SR 89A)  Near Capacity (LOS C & LOS D) o I-17: south of General Crook Trail, SR 260 to Cornville Road o SR 89A: Clarkdale Parkway to Mingus Avenue, east of Mingus Avenue to SR 179, north of SR 179 o SR 179: I-17 to Bell Rock Boulevard, south of SR 89A o SR 260: west of Verde Park Drive, I-17 to SR 89A o Aspen Way (south of SR 260) o Bell Rock Blvd (west of SR 179) o Black Hills Drive (west of Gale Avenue) o Boot Hill Road Working Paper 2: Future Conditions o Jacks Canyon Road (east of SR 179) o Lake Montezuma Avenue/Beaver Creek Road (I-17 to Rimrock Airport) o Montezuma Castle Highway (Portions of Roadway) o Montezuma Castle Highway/Main Street/Finnie Flat Road o Page Springs Road (north of Cornville Road) o Verde Valley School Road (west of SR 179) o Camino Real (south of SR 89A) o Cliffside Trail o Coffee Pot Drive o Cornville Road (Tissaw Rd to Beaverhead Flat Road) o Dry Creek Road o Finnie Flat Road o Fir Street (west of Camino Real) o Forest Road 618 o Jacks Canyon Road (east of SR 179) 13 Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan o Main Street (Camp Verde) o Main Street (Cottonwood): north of SR 89A, west of Willard Street o Mingus Avenue: west of SR89A, Twelfth Street to SR 89A) o Montezuma Castle Highway o Montezuma Lake Road (South of Beaver Creek Road) o Page Springs Road o Sixth Street (Cottonwood): south of SR 89A to Mingus Avenue o Soldiers Pass Road o Tissaw Road (south of Cornville Road) o Twelfth Street (south of SR 89A) o Verde Valley School Rd (west of SR 179) o Yuma Road (east of SR89A)  Below Capacity (LOS A & LOS B): All other roadways perform at a LOS of B or greater Working Paper 2: Future Conditions 14 Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan Figure 3.2: 2025 Nobuild Level of Congestion Working Paper 2: Future Conditions 15 Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan Figure 3.3: 2040 Nobuild Level of Congestion Working Paper 2: Future Conditions 16 Future Multimodal Conditions Chapter 4 Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan This Chapter presents a summary of future multimodal conditions and needs for the Study Area based on projected future socioeconomic conditions and stakeholder input. TRANSIT Successful transit systems open economic opportunities for local residents and businesses, link neighboring destinations, and generally enhance the quality of life for residents and enhance economic vitality of rural communities. Transit services in the Verde Valley region have been fairly successful and are well liked by the residents and businesses in the region. Transit service within Verde Valley is currently provided by the Cottonwood Area Transit (CAT), Verde Lynx, and the Yavapai-Apache Transit System. Several stakeholders expressed the need for additional transit services in the region to support current and future demand. Per the Transportation Research Board’s (TRB) Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) Report 161, the number of people needing passenger transportation is primarily based on the number of persons residing in households with incomes below the poverty level and persons residing in households with no vehicles. Data was extracted from the 20092013 American Community Survey (ACS) for each of the population groups. According to the 2009-2013ACS, there are currently 10,601 persons (17% of total population) residing in households with incomes below the poverty level and 2,113 persons (3.5% of total population) residing in households with no vehicles. Based on future population and housing unit projections presented in Chapter 2, these estimates are expected to increase resulting in the need for additional transit service. Table 4.1 summarizes the transit dependent population groups for current and future years. Comprehensive Transit Feasibility and Transit Implementation studies are needed to identify exact transit needs in the region. Table 4.1: Persons Below Poverty Level and Persons with No Vehicles Year Persons Below Poverty Level Persons in Households with No Vehicles Year 2015 10,601 2,113 Year 2025 13,086 2,612 Year 2040 15,197 3052 Summary of Transit Needs Identified by Stakeholders Stakeholders provided the following feedback related to transit service needs and concerns: • Cottonwood Area Transit is currently analyzing the demand for expansion of fixed transit service to Cornville and extending Lynx service to the Village of Oak Creek. • Yavapai-Apache Transit has proposed expansion of service to include service to Lake Montezuma. • As development occurs on SR 260, safe bus pull-outs are needed. Stakeholders also commented that new commercial developments along the route should be considered for usage as bus stop locations. 17 Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan • Stakeholders commented that the following areas should be evaluated for transit service: o Cornville – fixed route service between Cottonwood and Cornville would enhance mobility choices to area residents as well as provide a tourist connection between the Verde Valley Wine Trail and Cottonwood. As development occurs on Cornville Road, the need for additional modal choices will increase. o Lake Montezuma – regional transit service is needed between Lake Montezuma and commercial and medical services. Expansion of the Yavapai-Apache Transit routes to include fixed stops in Lake Montezuma would provide area residents with access to commercial and medical service. o Village of Oak Creek – fixed route service between Sedona and the Village of Oak Creek may mitigate traffic congestion on SR 179 and will provide additional modal choices between the two communities. o Verde Lakes – transit service would be beneficial for area residents between Verde Lakes and shopping and medical services in Cottonwood and Camp Verde. o Camp Verde – as development occurs on SR 260, Finnie Flat Road, and Montezuma Castle Highway, the area may require increased transit services to provide transportation choices to area residents. o Sedona - a circulator route within Sedona would provide area residents and tourists with alternative methods of accessing activity centers. BICYCLE AND PEDESTRIAN NEEDS As residential and economic development occurs, the need for alternative modes of transportation will increase. As a major outdoor recreational area in the State, increased economic development and tourism to the Verde Valley area may increase the need for additional pedestrian trails, sidewalks, bike lanes, and trailheads. The addition of new sidewalks, bike lanes, multi-use paths, trails and trailheads may increase vehicular traffic on roadways and may require additional signage, parking areas, and roadway safety improvements. The Verde Valley Regional Trails Concept Plan identified a network of trailheads and trails; however, the trail alignments and trailhead locations were not authorized or approved when the report was completed. Current and future bicycle and pedestrian facility deficiencies in the study area include:  Limited sidewalks and bike lanes within Clarkdale, Sedona, Camp Verde, Village of Oak Creek, Verde Village, Lake Montezuma, and Cornville.  Lack of regional multiuse trails linking communities – particularly Camp Verde and the Yavapai-Apache Nation, Cornville Road and Cottonwood, Clarkdale and Cottonwood.  Development along Cornville Road will increase the need for additional sidewalk, bicycle, and trail connectivity between activity centers from Cornville to Cottonwood.  Limited street crossing opportunities particularly across high-volume roads such as SR 89A in Cottonwood and Clarkdale. As residential and commercial development occurs on SR 89A, the need for safe pedestrian crossings will be needed.  Increased traffic volumes, coupled with high vehicle speeds, on SR 260 may create unsafe pedestrian and bicycle usage. A buffered multi-use path linking Cottonwood and Camp Verde would increase pedestrian safety along SR 260.  Recreational trails for residents of Camp Verde, Clarkdale, Cottonwood, Cornville, Lake Montezuma, and Verde Village.  Regional trails that connect neighboring communities – particularly Lake Montezuma and Cornville, Camp Verde and Lake Montezuma, Clarkdale and Jerome, Clarkdale and Cottonwood, and Verde Village, Cottonwood, and Cornville. Working Paper 2: Future Conditions 18 Summary of Findings Chapter 5 Verde Valley Master Transportation Plan Following is a summary of findings from the future conditions analysis:  Major growth area corridors within the region include: SR 260, SR 89A (Clarkdale to Cottonwood), Finnie Flat Road, and east of Cottonwood. Population projections for the region estimate that the study area will have a population of 97,124 by 2040. Additionally, the region’s employment is expected to add additional jobs in tourism, industrial, and commercial sectors. This increase in population and employment, coupled with additional tourist traffic, will significantly affect the current roadway network’s performance.  Traffic volumes on SR 179 from Verde Valley School Road to SR 89A are expected to steadily increase from 2015 to 2040. An alternative route connecting the Village of Oak Creek to West Sedona may alleviate congestion.  As development occurs on Cornville Road, congestion levels increase causing the roadway to reach capacity. Widening the roadway or constructing an alternative route to Sedona and Camp Verde may reduce congestion on the roadway and improve safety.  Projected residential growth in Lake Montezuma creates severe congestion issues by 2040. Alternative routes or roadway improvements are needed to reduce congestion and improve motorist safety.  Intersection improvements along SR 89A in Cottonwood and Sedona and on SR 260 in Cottonwood and Camp Verde are needed. Improving the corridor intersections and establishing access management guidelines will improve congestion and traffic circulation.  SR 260 and SR 89A throughout the study area near capacity by 2040. Alternative routes and alternative modes of transportation area needed to improve traffic circulation.  Sidewalk and bike lane connectivity within communities is needed to allow residents and tourist to easily access activity centers.  Public transit options and other non-motorized modes of transportation need to be expanded to include residential areas in Cornville, Lake Montezuma, Camp Verde, and the Village of Oak Creek. 19