Arizona Travel Impacts 1998-2016p Photo courtesy of Mike Mulvahill and the Arizona Office of Tourism June 2017 Prepared for the Arizona Office of Tourism Phoenix, Arizona ARIZONA TRAVEL IMPACTS 1998-2016P Arizona Office of Tourism Primary Research Conducted By: Dean Runyan Associates Portland, Oregon June 2017 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report describes the economic impacts of travel to and through Arizona and the state’s fifteen counties. The estimates of the direct impacts associated with traveler spending in Arizona were produced using the Regional Travel Impact Model (RTIM) developed by Dean Runyan Associates. The estimates for Arizona are generally comparable to the U.S. Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The estimates of spending, earnings, employment and tax receipts are also used as input data to derive estimates of other economic measures, including gross domestic product (GDP) and secondary effects of the travel industry. TWO CONSECUTIVE YEARS OF STRONG GROWTH FOR THE ARIZONA TRAVEL INDUSTRY The Arizona travel industry had its second consecutive year of exceptionally strong growth, following mostly modest increases in spending and related impacts since the recession of 2007 to 2009. 1 2  Spending. Total direct travel spending in Arizona was $21.2 billion in 2016. Non-transportation visitor spending increased by 3.3 percent, following a 5.6 percent increase from 2014 to 2015. Transportation spending decreased overall due to a decline in the price of motor fuel. Over the past two years, travel spending in real (inflation-adjusted) dollars has increased by 3.9 percent per year. Real travel spending increased by 1.8 percent per year during the preceding four year period (2009 through 2013).  Travel Activity. Visitor air travel on domestic flights to Arizona destinations increased by 7 percent in 2016, following a 5.4 percent increase the preceding year.1 Room demand increased by 2.9 percent for the year, following a 4.2 percent increase the preceding year.2  Employment. Direct travel-generated employment was 184,200 in 2016. This represents an addition of 4,700 jobs. Employment has increased by 3.3 percent per year over the past two years.  Secondary Impacts. The re-spending of travel-related revenues by businesses and employees creates secondary impacts. In 2016, the secondary impacts were 158,300 jobs with $6.8 billion in earnings.  GDP. The Gross Domestic Product of the travel industry was $9.2 billion in 2016. The travel industry and the microelectronics industry have been the top two export-oriented industries in the state in recent years. U.S. Department of Transportation Origin and Destination Survey. STR, Inc. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES THE ARIZONA TRAVEL INDUSTRY IS A LEADING EXPORT-ORIENTED INDUSTRY Travel and tourism is one of the most important “export-oriented” industries in Arizona. Spending by visitors generates sales in lodging, food services, recreation, transportation and retail businesses – the “travel industry.” These sales support jobs for Arizona residents and contribute tax revenue to local and state governments. Travel is especially important in the non-metropolitan areas of the state, where manufacturing and traded services are less prevalent. Selected Arizona Export-Oriented Industries, 2016 Note: Preliminary 2016 estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Agriculture includes food and beverage processing industries. THE TRAVEL INDUSTRY GENERATES TAX BENEFITS FOR ARIZONA RESIDENTS In 2016, the travel industry generated $1,186 in local, state and federal tax receipts for each Arizona household.  In 2016, more than ten percent of all local and state tax revenues were generated by the travel industry.  The tax revenue impacts of the Arizona travel industry are relatively more important in non-urban counties (see graph). State Transaction Privilege Taxes Generated By Direct Travel Spending, 2016 FY Maricopa & Pima All Other Counties 0% DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES 5% 10% 15% 20% ARIZONA TRAVEL IMPACTS, 1998-2016P I. U.S. Travel II. Arizona Travel Summary of Arizona Travel Travel Trends Seasonal and Regional Travel Impacts Visitor Origin Arizona Travel Industry Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product of Arizona Export-Oriented Industries Direct, Secondary & Total Impacts III. State and Local Government Revenue Industry Gross Domestic Product and Taxes Arizona Tax Structure Travel Industry Tax Revenue Summary IV. Regional Travel Impacts V. County Travel Impacts Appendices A. B. C. D. E. F 2016 Travel Impact Estimates Key Terms and Definitions Regional Travel Impact Model Travel Industry Accounts Arizona Earnings and Employment by Industry Sector Secondary Impacts Industry Groups DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES page 1 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 13 19 19 20 21 22 25 35 59 60 64 65 66 77 78 PAGE I List of Tables and Figures page I. US Travel Annual Direct Travel Spending in U.S., 2000-2016p Spending by Foreign and Resident Travelers in U.S. Foreign Share of U.S. Internal Travel Overseas Arrivals Relative Value of Selected Foreign Currencies compared to U.S. Dollar U.S. Travel Industry Employment Components of U.S. Travel Industry Employment II. Arizona Travel 5 Direct Travel Impacts, 2000-2016p Arizona Direct Travel Spending, Real and Current Dollars, 2000-2016p Air Passenger Visitor Arrivals to Arizona, US Air Carriers, 2000-2016 Arizona Taxable Lodging Sales, 2000-2016 Regional Shares of Arizona Taxable Lodging Sales, 2016 Taxable Lodging Sales by Region and Quarter, 2016 Arizona Taxable Lodging Sales by Quarter, 2007-2016 Arizona Visitor Spending by Origin of Visitor, 2016p International Visitor Spending in Arizona, 2000-2016p Arizona Travel Industry Gross Domestic Product, 2016p Arizona Gross Domestic Product, 2016 (Selected Export-Oriented Industries) Total Employment and Earnings Generated by Travel Spending in Arizona, 2016p Direct & Secondary Employment Generated by Travel Spending, 2016p (graph) Direct & Secondary Earnings Generated by Travel Spending, 2016p (graph) Direct & Secondary Employment Generated by Travel Spending, 2016p (table) Direct & Secondary Earnings Generated by Travel Spending, 2016p (table) Arizona Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p (detail) III. State and Local Government Revenue 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 15 15 16 16 17 19 Production & Import Taxes as a Percent of Gross Domestic Product Arizona State & Local Government Tax Revenues, 2016-16 FY Arizona Travel Industry State & Local Government Tax Revenues, 2016-16 FY Arizona State & Local Tax Revenues, 2016-16 FY (table) State Transaction Privilege Taxes Generated by Travel Spending, 2016 FY (graph) State Transaction Privilege Taxes Generated by Travel Spending, 2016 FY (table) State and Local Travel-Generated Tax Revenue per Household, 2016 IV. Regional Travel Impacts Regional Impact Summary Tables Regional Impact Detail Tables, 2008-2016p IV. County Travel Impacts 19 20 21 22 22 23 23 25 26-28 29 35 Distribution of Travel-Generated Employment, 2016p Percent of Total Area Employment that is Travel-Generated, 2016p Travel-Generated Employment and Earnings Shares by County, 2016p County Impact Summary Tables County Impact Detail Tables, 2008-2016p PAGE II 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 36 37 38 39-44 45-58 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PREFACE The purpose of this study is to document the economic significance of the travel industry in Arizona from 1998 to 2016. These findings show the level of travel spending by visitors traveling to and within the state, and the impact this spending had on the economy in terms of earnings, employment and tax revenue. Dean Runyan Associates prepared this study for the Arizona Office of Tourism. Dean Runyan Associates has specialized in research and planning services for the travel, tourism and recreation industry since 1984. With respect to economic impact analysis, the firm developed and currently maintains the Regional Travel Impact Model (RTIM), a proprietary computer model for analyzing travel economic impacts at the state, regional and local level. Dean Runyan Associates also has extensive experience in project feasibility analysis, market evaluation, survey research and travel and tourism planning. Many individuals and organizations provided data and assistance for this report. State agencies include the Department of Revenue, Commerce Authority, Gaming Commission and State Parks. Information was also provided by the Eller College of Management at the University of Arizona and the Arizona Hospitality Research and Resource Center, a unit of Alliance Bank Business Outreach Center at Northern Arizona University. Federal agencies that provided essential data for this report include the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, the U.S. Forest Service, and the National Park Service. Special thanks are due to Colleen Floyd, Director of Research, and Kari Roberg, Research Manager for the Arizona Office of Tourism. Without their support and assistance, this report would not have been possible. Dean Runyan Associates 833 SW 11th Ave., Suite 920 Portland, OR 97205 (503) 226-2973 info@deanrunyan.com www.deanrunyan.com DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE III This page intentionally blank I. U.S. TRAVEL DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 1 The national level data in this section focuses on visitor spending trends in current and real dollars, resident and foreign visitor spending in the U.S., and trends in travel-generated employment. The following two graphs are derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts.1 Both graphs show direct tourism output for the United States – spending by resident and foreign visitors. The 2016 values are based on the first three quarters of the year. Annual Direct Travel Spending in U.S. 2000-2016p $1,000 Current Output (Billions) $900 $800 Real $700 $600 $500 $400 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16p Spending by Foreign* and Resident Travelers in U.S. (Current Dollars; Year 2000=100) Output (Year 2000 = 100) 200 Foreign 180 160 140 Resident 120 100 80 60 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16p *Note: Foreign visitor spending does not include expenditures on health and educational services or expenditures by short term seasonal workers. 1 See http://www.bea.gov/industry/index.htm#satellite. PAGE 2 Spending by resident and foreign visitors was $933 billion in 2016 in current dollars. This represents a 3.0 percent increase over 2015. When adjusted for changes in prices (real dollars), spending increased by 2.3 percent from 2015 to 2016 – compared to a 4.7 percent increase for the preceding year. The bottom chart compares the change in current dollar spending by resident and foreign visitors since 2000. In 2016, the increase in spending by resident visitors (4.7 percent) compares to a 2.0 percent decrease in nonresident spending. Visitor spending by nonresidents increased by 5.2 percent from 2014 to 2015. (Note: The nonresident spending estimates for 2014 and 2015 were revised upward from those previously reported in 2015.) DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES The foreign share of U.S. internal travel declined by almost a full percent point from 2015 to 2016 (18.2 percent to 17.2 percent). This has been due to two factors. First, overseas arrivals began to show a decreasing rate of growth in the beginning of 2016 and actually declined in absolute numbers in the most recently reported months. Secondly, the value of foreign currencies has fallen relative to the U.S. dollar. This not only discourages travel to the U.S., but also means that foreigners that do travel to the U.S. have less money to spend on goods and services. Foreign Share of U.S. Internal Travel Spending Overseas Arrivals (Year over Year Percent Change) 20 Year over Year Pct. Chg. 20% 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16p 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 2015-Jan 2015-Jun 2016-Dec 2016-Jun Relative Value of Selected Foreign Currencies compared to U.S. Dollar Monthly Averages, Jan 2015 through Dec 2016 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 Jan 15 Sources: Euro Canada Japan China Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Foreign Share of U.S Internal Travel: Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel & Tourism Satellite Accounts and International Transactions. Overseas Arrivals: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, U.S. Department of Commerce. Relative Value of Selected Foreign Currencies: XE Corporation. (www.xrates.com) Jan 17 PAGE 3 The following two graphs show employment trends since 2000 and the composition of travel industry employment since the recession. The first graph shows that travel-generated employment recovered from the 2008-09 recession by 2013. Since then, however, there has been no significant employment growth in the industry. Leisure and hospitality employment was 3.5 million in 2016 or 65 percent of total travel industry employment, compared to 3.6 million in 2000 or 61 percent of the total. Most of this growth was due to food services employment. However, employment in transportation and other industries declined over the same period from 2.3 million to 1.8 million, mostly due to decreased employment in the airline and related transportation industries. U.S. Travel Industry Employment 6.5 6.0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel & Tourism Satellite Accounts. 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16p Components of U.S. Travel Industry Employment, 20122016p Employment inThousands 4.0 3.5 65.5 % 61.3 % Leisure & Hosp. 3.0 2.5 Transport & Other 2.0 1.5 Source: See above graph. Leisure & hospitality includes accommodations, food services, and arts, entertainment & recreation. Transportation and other includes retail and all other industries. 1.0 00 PAGE 4 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16p DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES II. ARIZONA TRAVEL DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 5 The multi-billion dollar travel industry in Arizona is an important part of the state and local economies. The industry is represented primarily by businesses in the leisure and hospitality sector, transportation, and retail. The money that visitors spend on various goods and services while in Arizona produces business receipts at these firms, which in turn generate earnings and employment for Arizona residents. In addition, state and local governments collect taxes that are generated from visitor spending. Most of these taxes are imposed on the sale of goods and services to visitors, thus avoiding a tax burden on local residents. The economic impacts directly generated by visitor spending also contribute to significant secondary impacts. A portion of the business receipts generated by visitor spending is spent by businesses within Arizona for other goods and services (indirect impacts). Visitor generated earnings are also spent by employees for goods and services produced in Arizona (induced impacts). SUMMARY OF ARIZONA TRAVEL  Total direct travel spending in Arizona was $21.2 billion in 2016. Nontransportation visitor spending increased by 3.3 percent, following a 5.6 percent increase from 2014 to 2015. Transportation spending decreased overall due to a decline in the price of motor fuel. Over the past two years, travel spending in real (inflation-adjusted) dollars has increased by 3.9 percent per year. Real travel spending increased by 1.8 percent per year during the preceding four year period (2009 through 2013).  Lodging sales increased by 5.1 percent in 2016 following a 12.4 percent increase the preceding year. The strong growth in room sales over that past two years has been equally attributable to increased room rates and room demand (STR, Inc.).  Visitor air travel on domestic flights to Arizona destinations increased by 7 percent in 2016, following a 5.4 percent increase the preceding year. Visitor air arrivals to the state were essentially flat from 2009 through 2013.  Direct travel-generated employment was 184,200 in 2016. This represents an addition of 4,700 jobs, an increase of 2.6 percent. Jobs were added in all major sectors of the travel industry. (See detailed employment estimates, page 17.)  The Gross Domestic Product of the travel industry was $9.2 billion in 2016. The travel industry and the microelectronics industry have been the top two exportoriented industries in the state in recent years.  The re-spending of travel-related revenues by businesses and employees creates secondary impacts. In 2016, the secondary impacts were 158,300 jobs with $6.8 billion in earnings. PAGE 6 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES TRAVEL TRENDS The Arizona travel industry had its second consecutive year of strong growth. Nontransportation visitor spending increased by 3.3 percent in 2016, compared to a 5.6 percent increase the preceding year.1 Although total travel spending increased by only 1.9 percent from 2015 to 2016, the lower rate of growth was primarily due to a decline in the price of motor fuel. Earnings, employment and tax revenue have also experienced substantial growth over the past two years. Direct Travel Impacts, 2000-2016p Ave. Annual % Chg. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016p Total (Real 2016$) 17.3 19.6 18.6 20.8 Total (Current $) Other Visitor 13.7 1.7 12.1 16.9 1.9 15.0 17.8 2.0 15.7 Non-transportation 9.4 11.1 Transportation 2.7 3.9 3.9 4.6 15-16p 00-16p 21.2 1.9% 1.3% 21.0 2.6 18.5 21.2 2.6 18.6 1.0% 2.8% 1.9% 3.0% 0.9% 2.7% 11.1 13.4 13.8 3.3% 2.5% 4.6 5.1 4.8 -5.4% 3.7% 5.0 6.2 6.5 4.0% 3.2% Employment (Thousands) Employment 160.7 165.9 155.9 179.5 184.2 2.6% 0.9% Tax Revenue ($Millions) Total (Current $) Local State Federal 1,937 2,332 2,516 2,999 3,093 549 652 698 856 893 534 694 738 839 859 854 987 1,079 1,304 1,341 3.1% 3.0% 4.3% 3.1% 2.3% 3.0% 2.8% 2.9% Spending ($Billions) Earnings ($Billions) Earnings (Current $) Other spending includes resident air travel, travel arrangement and reservation services, and convention and trade show organizers. Non-transportation visitor spending includes accommodations, food services, retail, food stores, and arts, entertainment & recreation. Visitor transportation spending includes private auto, auto rental, other local ground transportation and one-way airfares. Earnings include wages & salaries, earned benefits and proprietor income. Employment includes all full- and part-time employment of payroll employees and proprietors. Local tax revenue includes lodging taxes, sales taxes, auto rental taxes and airport passenger facility charges paid by visitors, and the property tax payments and sales tax payments attributable to the travel industry income of employees and businesses. State tax revenue includes lodging, sales and motor fuel tax payments of visitors, and the income tax and sales tax payments attributable to the travel industry income of businesses and employees. Federal tax revenue includes motor fuel excise taxes and airline ticket taxes paid by visitors, and the payroll and income taxes attributable to the travel industry income of employees and businesses. 1 Statewide travel trends for 1998 through 2016p are shown on pages 32 through 44 of the county section. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 7 Arizona Direct Travel Spending Real and Current Dollars 2000-2016p Travel Spending (Billions) $22 Current $20 Real $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16p Air Passenger Visitor Arrivals to Arizona U.S. Air Carriers, 2000-2016 Visitor Air Arrivals (Millions) 8.5 Sources: STR, Inc., Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation Origin and Destination Survey, and Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-West Urban. Visitor air arrivals to Arizona increased by 7 percent from 2015 to 2016, following a 5.4 percent increase the preceding year. From 2009 through 2013, visitor air arrivals were essentially flat. 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Arizona Taxable Lodging Sales 2000-2016 $3.5 Taxable Lodging Sales (Billions) In real dollars (adjusted for inflation) Arizona travel spending increased by 1.9 percent over 2015. In current dollars, the increase was 1.0 percent. Gasoline prices declined by 11.6 percent for the year. Room rates (+3.6 percent) were the only source of significant price increase (STR, Inc.). $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Sources: U.S. Department of Transportation Origin and Destination Survey and Dean Runyan Associates. Lodging sales is another indicator of the strength of the travel industry as it reflects the profitability of one of its key sectors. Taxable lodging sales increased by 5.1 percent annually from 2015 to 2016 – following a 12.4 percent increase the preceding year. More than one-half of the recent increase was due to increased room rates, as noted above. Sources: Arizona Department of Revenue and STR, Inc. PAGE 8 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES SEASONAL AND REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACTS Lodging sales are used in this section to document seasonal patterns in the Arizona tourism industry. (Lodging sales are used because travel spending and related impacts are estimated only on a calendar year basis.) Regional Shares of Arizona Taxable Lodging Sales, 2016 West Coast 4.0% North Central 6.0% Northern Tucson & 15.7% Southern 13.1% The pie chart shows the annual distribution of lodging sales by region. The lodging sales of the Phoenix and Central Arizona region are greater than the four other regions combined. Phoenix & Central 61.2% (The Northern Arizona region includes Apache, Coconino and Navajo counties. The West Coast region includes La Paz, Mohave and Yuma counties. The North Central region includes Gila and Yavapai counties. The Phoenix and Central Arizona region includes Maricopa and Pinal counties. The Tucson and Southern Arizona region includes Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Pima and Santa Cruz counties.) Taxable Lodging Sales by Region and Quarter, 2016 Northern West Coast North Central Phoenix & Central Lodging sales are greatest in the first quarter for three of Arizona’s tourism regions – the West Coast, Phoenix and Tucson. By contrast, spring and summer quarters are most important for the Northern and North Central regions. The bottom column chart provides a statewide quarterly breakout of lodging sales in two year increments beginning in 2008. Lodging sales have increased in all four quarters since the prior 2007 peak. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Tucson & Southern 0% Jan-Mar 20% 40% Apr-Jun 60% 80% 100% Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Arizona Taxable Lodging Sales by Quarter, 2007-2016 (Millions) $1,000 $800 Millions The next two graphs provide quarterly breakouts for the regions and the state. $600 $400 $200 $0 Jan-Mar 2008 Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: Arizona Department of Revenue taxable hotel/motel sales. PAGE 9 VISITOR ORIGIN Out-of-state travelers generate more than three-fourths of the visitor impacts in Arizona. Visitors from other states are the largest segment (more than 60 percent of spending), while international travel, including day travel from Mexico, comprises approximately 15 percent of visitor impacts. The share has declined slightly in the past two years due the decreased value of foreign currencies relative to the U.S. dollar. (See bottom graph and pages 2 and 3 of the U.S. travel section.) Arizona Travel Impacts by Origin of Visitor, 2016p Origin Spending Earnings Employment Tax Receipts ($ Million) ($ Billion) ($ Billion) (Thousand) Local/State Federal 4.1 11.6 2.9 18.6 2.6 21.2 1.0 3.7 0.8 5.4 1.0 6.5 33.5 109.3 25.2 168.0 16.1 184.2 347 1,057 265 1,670 24 1,694 202 801 128 1,131 171 1,302 Arizona Other U.S. International All Visitors Other Travel Total Travel Sources: Dean Runyan Associates, International Trade Administration and Bureau of Economic Analysis (U.S. Dept. of Commerce), TNS TravelsAmerica visitor survey, Statistics Canada, Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi and Alberta H. Charney, “Mexican Visitors to Arizona: Visitor Characteristics and Economic Impacts, 2007-08” (Karl Eller College of Business and Public Administration, University of Arizona) and Bureau of Transportation Statistics Border Crossing/Entry Data. International Visitor Spending in Arizona, 2000-2016p International Share Spending in Real (2016) Dollars 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Share $3.2 Spend $3.0 $2.8 $2.6 $2.4 $2.2 $2.0 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16p Sources: See above chart for source of international estimates. See first graph on preceding page for constant dollar estimates. Constant dollar visitor spending does not include “Other Travel.” PAGE 10 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES ARIZONA TRAVEL INDUSTRY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT In concept, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of a particular industry is equal to gross output (sales or receipts) minus intermediate inputs (the goods and services purchased from other industries). GDP is always smaller than output or sales because GDP measures only the “value added” of an industry and does not include the cost of the inputs that are also necessary to produce a good or service. Alternatively, GDP can be thought of as the sum of earnings, indirect business taxes (primarily excise and property taxes) and other operating surplus (including profits). Estimates of travel spending and travel industry GDP are shown in the chart below. Arizona travel industry GDP amounted to $9.2 billion in 2016. Arizona travel industry GDP has represented slightly less than 3.0 percent of total state GDP in recent years. About 60 percent of all travel spending in Arizona is attributed to intermediate inputs and goods resold at retail. Intermediate inputs cover a range of goods and services that are purchased by travel industry businesses for the purpose of creating a product or service for the traveler. For example, lodging establishments purchase cable television services. Restaurants purchase food and beverages from vendors. In both cases, these inputs are classified as the GDP of other industries. In addition, travel spending occurs at many retail establishments where the goods purchased from the retailer are purchased as finished goods from suppliers. These resold goods are also counted as products of other industries. This would include motor fuel, groceries and most of the commodities sold at retail establishments.2 Arizona Travel Industry Gross Domestic Product, 2016p $25 $20 Billions $12.1 Inputs $15 12.1 $2.7 Surplus & Taxes $10 $5 $0 $6.5 Earnings 6.5 6.5 2.7 2.7 Spending ($21.2) GDP ($9.2) Sources: Dean Runyan Associates, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Implan Group, LLC. Details may not add to totals due to rounding. 2 About 38 percent of the $12.1 billion of inputs and goods resold are purchased from other Arizona businesses. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 11 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OF ARIZONA EXPORT-ORIENTED INDUSTRIES Export-oriented industries are those industries that primarily market their products and services to other regions, states or nations. 3 Agriculture, mining, and manufacturing are the best examples of export-oriented industries. Clearly, there are cases in each of these three sectors where the products are sold within the local or regional market. Nonetheless, in general most businesses within these industries depend on export markets. The travel industry is also an export-oriented industry because goods and services are sold to visitors, rather than residents. The travel industry injects money into the local economy, as do the exports of other industries. Exports are not necessarily more important than locally traded goods and services. However, diverse export-oriented industries in any economy are a source of strength – in part because they generate income that contributes to the development of other local services and amenities. Such industries characterize the “comparative advantage” of the local economy within larger regional, national and global markets. A comparison of the GDP’s of the leading export-oriented industries in Arizona is shown below. 2016 GDP of Major Arizona Export Industries Agric./Food Proc. Mining Micro-Electronics Aerospace Travel $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 Gross Domestic Product (Billions) Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Dean Runyan Associates. 2016 estimates for non-travel industries based on 2015 GDP and 2016 earnings and payroll. 3 See also pages 55 of Appendix A and page 67 of Appendix D. PAGE 12 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES DIRECT, SECONDARY AND TOTAL IMPACTS Travel spending within Arizona brings money into many Arizona communities in the form of business receipts. Portions of these receipts are spent within the state for labor and supplies. Employees, in turn, spend a portion of their earnings on goods and services in the state. This re-spending of travel-related revenues creates indirect and induced impacts. To summarize:  Direct impacts represent the employment and earnings attributable to travel expenditures made directly by travelers at businesses throughout the state.  Indirect impacts represent the employment and earnings associated with industries that supply goods and services to the direct businesses (i.e., those that receive money directly from travelers throughout the state).  Induced impacts represent the employment and earnings that result from purchases for food, housing, transportation, recreation, and other goods and services made by travel industry employees, and the employees of the indirectly affected industries. Total Employment and Earnings Generated by Travel Spending in Arizona, 2016p Employment (Thousands) Induced 116.2 Indirect 42.1 Direct 184.2 Earnings (Billions) Induced $4.9 Direct $6.5 Indirect $1.9 Note: Indirect and induced impacts estimated by Dean Runyan Associates with IMPLAN Group, LLC. Total employment was 333,900. The employment multiplier for 2016 is 1.86 (342.5/184.2). Total earnings were $13.3 billion. The earnings multiplier is 2.05 ($13.3/$6.5). DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 13 The impacts in this section are presented in terms of the employment and earnings of eleven major industry groups. These industry groups are similar, but not identical to the business service (or commodity) categories presented elsewhere in this report. (The specific industries that comprise these major groups are listed in Appendix D.) Direct travel impacts, such as those discussed in the first part of this section and the regional and county impacts presented elsewhere in this report are found in the following industry groups:  Accommodations & Food Services  Arts, Entertainment and Recreation  Retail Trade  Transportation As is indicated in the following tables and graphs, the total direct employment and earnings of these four industry groups is identical to the total direct employment and earnings shown in the first part of this section. The only difference is that these industry groups represent industry groupings (firms) rather than commodity or business service groupings. The indirect and induced impacts of travel spending are found in all eleven industry groupings shown in the following tables and graphs. To summarize the primary secondary impacts:  Professional Services (34,100 jobs and $2.1 billion earnings). Legal, medical, educational and other professional services are utilized by travel businesses (indirect effect) and by employees of these firms (induced effect).  Other Services (14,100 jobs and $463 million earnings). Employees of travelrelated businesses purchase services from various providers, such as dry cleaners and repair shops. Similarly, travel businesses utilize a number of service providers, such as laundry, maintenance and business services.  Government (25,500 jobs and $1.5 billion earnings). Employees of travel-related businesses pay fees to attend public educational institutions and to operate motor vehicles.  Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (11,800 jobs and $601 million earnings). Employees and businesses use the services of financial institutions, insurers and real estate businesses. PAGE 14 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Direct and Secondary Employment Generated by Travel Spending in Arizona, 2016p Accomm. & Food Serv. Arts, Entertain., Rec. Transportation Retail Trade Prof. Services Government Other Services Finance, Ins., & Real… Construction Mining & Manufacturing Agric.& Food Processing 0 20 Direct Secondary 40 60 80 100 Direct and Secondary Employment (Thousands) Direct and Secondary Earnings Generated by Travel Spending in Arizona, 2016p Accomm. & Food Serv. Transportation Prof. Services Government Arts, Entertain., Rec. Construction Retail Trade Finance, Ins., & Real Estate Other Services Mining & Manufacturing Agric.& Food Processing Direct Secondary $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 $3.5 Direct and Secondary Earnings (Billions) See notes at end of table on page 20. Detailed estimates are reported in the following table. It should be emphasized that the estimates of indirect and induced impacts reported here apply to the entire state of Arizona and do not necessarily reflect economic patterns for individual counties, regions or subregions within the state. While total economic impacts can be calculated on a county or regional level, such a detailed analysis is not included in this study. In general, geographic areas with lower levels of aggregate economic activity will have smaller secondary impacts within those same geographic boundaries. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 15 Direct & Secondary Visitor-Generated Employment in Arizona, 2016p (thousand jobs) Industry Group Accomm. & Food Serv. Arts, Entertain., Rec. Transportation Retail Trade Prof. Services Government Other Services Finance, Ins., & Real Estate Construction Mining & Manufacturing Agric.& Food Processing All Industries Direct 95.1 41.9 30.8 16.4 184.2 Secondary Indirect Induced 4.2 9.5 6.0 2.5 5.5 4.5 3.2 19.6 8.6 25.5 1.2 24.3 5.6 8.5 4.3 7.5 0.9 10.7 1.6 2.6 1.0 1.0 42.1 116.2 Total 13.8 8.5 9.9 22.9 34.1 25.5 14.1 11.8 11.7 4.1 2.0 158.3 Grand Total 108.9 50.4 40.7 39.2 34.1 25.5 14.1 11.8 11.7 4.1 2.0 342.5 Direct & Secondary Visitor-Generated Earnings in Arizona, 2016p ($ Million) Industry Group Accomm. & Food Serv. Transportation Prof. Services Government Arts, Entertain., Rec. Construction Retail Trade Finance, Ins., & Real Estate Other Services Mining & Manufacturing Agric.& Food Processing All Industries Direct 2,785 1,968 0 0 1,180 0 531 0 0 0 0 6,464 Secondary Indirect Induced 87 197 148 44 623 1,491 101 1,414 235 67 58 674 15 168 210 391 223 240 130 214 38 42 1,869 4,942 Total 285 191 2,114 1,516 302 732 183 601 463 344 81 6,812 Grand Total 3,069 2,160 2,114 1,516 1,481 732 714 601 463 344 81 13,275 Source: Dean Runyan Associates and Minnesota Implan Group. Note: These industry groups are not equivalent to the categories used in the direct impact tables used in this report. See Appendix D. Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Detailed direct travel impacts for 2008 through 2016p are shown on the following page. PAGE 16 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Arizona Direct Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p 2008 2010 2012 2013 2014 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Billion) Destination Spending 16.0 15.7 17.1 17.5 18.2 Other Travel* 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.6 Total Direct Spending 18.1 17.8 19.5 19.9 20.8 Visitor Spending by Type of Traveler Accommodation ($Billion) Hotel, Motel 7.3 7.0 7.7 7.9 8.4 Private Home 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.4 Campground 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 Vacation Home 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Day Travel 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.9 Destination Spending 16.0 15.7 17.1 17.5 18.2 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Billion) Accommodations 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.7 3.0 Food Service 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 Food Stores 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 Local Tran. & Gas 3.2 3.1 3.8 3.7 3.8 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 Retail Sales 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 Visitor Air Tran. 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 Destination Spending 16.0 15.7 17.1 17.5 18.2 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Billion) Accom. & Food Serv. 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 Retail** 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Ground Tran. 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Visitor Air Tran. 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Other Travel* 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 Total Direct Earnings 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.5 5.8 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 83.4 80.1 83.2 86.1 88.7 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 37.4 35.6 36.6 37.3 39.7 Retail** 20.0 16.8 16.6 16.9 17.6 Ground Tran. 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 Visitor Air Tran. 7.9 7.1 7.5 7.2 7.6 Other Travel* 14.4 12.8 14.9 14.3 15.3 Total Direct Employment 166.6 155.9 162.5 165.6 172.7 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 706 698 735 756 787 State Tax Receipts 708 738 825 805 796 Federal Tax Receipts 1,083 1,079 1,057 1,172 1,230 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 2,497 2,516 2,617 2,733 2,814 2015 2016p 18.5 2.6 21.0 18.6 2.6 21.2 8.9 4.4 0.7 0.7 3.7 18.5 9.2 4.4 0.6 0.7 3.6 18.6 3.3 4.2 1.0 3.2 2.3 2.6 1.9 18.5 3.5 4.4 1.0 2.9 2.4 2.6 1.9 18.6 2.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.7 1.0 6.2 2.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.7 1.0 6.5 92.2 95.1 41.3 41.9 18.1 18.4 4.1 4.4 8.1 8.2 15.7 16.1 179.5 184.2 856 893 839 859 1,304 1,341 2,999 3,093 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement & reservation services, and convention & trade organizers. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 17 This page intentionally blank. III. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE This section is concerned with the contribution of the Arizona travel industry to state and local government finance. The first part of the report compares the travel industry to various other sectors of the state economy. The remainder provides an overview of state and local finance and the revenue contribution of the travel industry. INDUSTRY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND TAXES One way to consider the tax contributions of various sectors of the economy is to express the tax payments of businesses to government as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product. The bar chart and accompanying table show these tax payments (taxes on production and imports or TOPI) for a sample of goods-producing and service sectors in the state, including travel. TOPI include most of the taxes paid by the business firm to local, state and federal governments except for income taxes. This includes property taxes, licenses and fees and the sales and excise taxes collected from consumers. It is because of these later taxes that retail trade and travel have relatively high proportions of tax payments in relation to their gross domestic products. Production & Import Taxes as a Percent of Gross Domestic Product Selected Arizona Industry Sectors, 2015 Calendar Year Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Dean Runyan Associates. Construction Health Care Manufacturing *TOPI denotes taxes on production and imports, less subsidies. Retail Travel All Industries 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% GDP & TOPI expressed in $Million. Percent of Gross Domestic Product Construction Health Care Manufacturing Retail Travel All Industries DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES GDP 11,466 22,766 23,223 22,078 9,179 280,790 *TOPI 308 438 762 5,300 1,322 19,234 Percent 2.7% 1.9% 3.3% 24.0% 14.4% 6.8% PAGE 19 The remainder of this report will focus on the travel industry and the specific tax contributions made to state and local government in Arizona. In addition to the taxes on production discussed in the previous section, the tax payments of travel industry employees derived from the income earned from travel industry businesses will be included.1 The three primary sources of tax revenue generated by the travel industry are:  Sales tax receipts generated by visitor spending. This includes local and state sales taxes, lodging taxes, alcoholic beverage taxes, motor vehicle rental taxes and motor fuel taxes.  Taxes paid by travel industry businesses attributable to travel generated business receipts (property and income taxes).  Taxes paid by travel industry employees attributable to travel generated earnings (sales and property taxes). ARIZONA TAX STRUCTURE The pie chart below, adapted from the Bureau of the Census’ State and Local Government Finance and other data sources, shows the main categories of tax revenue in Arizona. Approximately one-half of all tax revenue is derived from sales and gross receipts taxes. Property taxes, paid primarily by homeowners and businesses to local governments, constitute more than one-fourth of all tax revenue.2 Income taxes constitute about one-fifth of all tax revenue. Arizona State and Local Government Tax Revenues 2015-16 Fiscal Year (Billions) Sales & Gross Receipts $11.2 46% License & Other $1.0 4% Property $7.5 31% Income $4.7 19% Sources: The 2015-16 fiscal year estimates of state and local tax revenues in Arizona were prepared by Dean Runyan Associates from various sources, including the Bureau of the Census (State and Local Government Finance), the Arizona Department of Revenue, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and a selection of annual financial reports for cities and counties. Sales and gross receipts taxes include the state privilege tax, local sales taxes and a variety of selective taxes, such as those on motor fuel and lodging. 1 In effect, this means re-allocating some of the sales and excise payments made by other industries to the travel industry because the payments are ultimately made by consumers that earned their income in the travel industry. 2 Businesses pay 68 percent of all property taxes in Arizona according the Tax Foundation (Fiscal Fact No. 342, November 21, 2012). PAGE 20 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES TRAVEL INDUSTRY TAX REVENUE The distribution of taxes generated by the travel industry for the 2015-16 fiscal year is shown in the following pie chart. The categories are the same as the preceding figure, with the exception that sales tax receipts are also distinguished between those that are generated by visitor spending and those that are generated by the spending of travel industry employees. Arizona Travel Industry State and Local Government Tax Revenues 2015-16 Fiscal Year (Million) Income $130 8% Property $180 10% Other $50 3% Employee Sales $240 14% Visitor Sales $1,130 65% Source: Dean Runyan Associates. “Other” travel-generated tax revenue includes gaming taxes and passenger facility charges for visitors who travel to Arizona airports. Whereas slightly about one-half of all state and local tax revenue in Arizona was attributable to sales tax collections in the 2015-16 fiscal year, 79 percent of all travel industry tax revenue was attributable to sales tax receipts from visitors (65 percent) and the purchases of employees in the travel industry (14 percent). Travel industry state and local tax revenues are compared to total Arizona state and local tax revenues in the following table. Because the travel industry generates a relatively high proportion of sales tax revenues, it is associated with proportionately more tax revenues than would be expected given the size of the industry, as measured by earnings or gross domestic product. Whereas the earnings and GDP of the travel industry are in the range of two and one-half percent of the state totals, travel industry tax revenues represent 7.1 percent of all state and local tax revenues in Arizona (see table, following page). This is consistent with the initial analysis that compared different industries within the state. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 21 Arizona State and Local Tax Revenues 2015-16 Fiscal Year ($Million) Sales & Gross Receipts Income Property License & Other Total Tax Receipts Total $11,200 $4,710 $7,530 $960 $24,400 Travel Generated $1,360 $130 $180 $50 $1,720 Percent Travel 12.2% 2.7% 2.4% 5.6% 7.1% Source: Dean Runyan Associates and Bureau of the Census, State and Local Government Finance. SUMMARY This analysis of the tax revenue generated by the Arizona travel industry can be summarized as follows:  The Arizona travel industry contributes more tax revenue to state and local governments than would be expected based on the size of the industry. Whereas the gross domestic product and employee earnings represent about three percent of the state economy, the travel industry generated 7.1 percent of tax revenue in the 2016 fiscal year.  One percent of all travel-generated tax revenue is attributable to sales and gross receipts taxes.  A majority of these tax revenues are borne by visitors who reside in other states and countries.  The tax impacts of the travel industry are generally greater for the less urbanized counties in the state, as illustrated in the graph below. State Transaction Privilege Taxes Generated By Direct Travel Spending, 2016 FY Source: Arizona Department of Revenue and Dean Runyan Associates. Graph derived from table on following page. Maricopa & Pima All Other Counties 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% The revenue contributions of Arizona’s fifteen counties are detailed in the following two tables. PAGE 22 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES State Transaction Privilege Taxes Generated by Travel Spending, FY 2016 ($Millions) Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham/Greenlee La Paz Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma Arizona Total 15.7 69.4 147.0 29.6 41.3 13.4 3,846.8 131.6 65.5 722.6 153.1 27.5 167.0 124.7 5,555.3 Travel 3.5 9.5 47.8 6.1 2.2 3.1 336.6 15.8 9.9 78.3 18.9 6.6 22.8 16.0 576.9 Percent 22.2% 13.7% 32.5% 20.5% 10.8% 23.4% 8.8% 12.0% 15.2% 10.8% 12.3% 24.0% 13.6% 12.8% 10.4% State and Local Travel-Generated Tax Revenue per Household 2016 Calendar Year Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham/Greenlee La Paz Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma Arizona Tax Revenue (Millions) Local State Total $3.8 $5.8 $9.5 $12.4 $14.0 $26.4 $67.3 $55.8 $123.1 $8.6 $12.5 $21.1 $2.5 $3.2 $5.7 $4.5 $6.1 $10.6 $590.3 $507.4 $1,097.7 $20.6 $24.8 $45.5 $12.6 $14.6 $27.2 $82.8 $114.0 $196.8 $22.8 $30.5 $53.2 $7.3 $9.3 $16.6 $35.5 $34.2 $69.6 $21.9 $26.4 $48.3 $892.9 $858.5 $1,751.4 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Households (Thousands) 23.2 48.5 48.9 22.0 14.9 9.1 1,565.6 84.5 36.4 402.2 138.5 15.0 97.1 67.6 2,573.7 Tax Revenue per Household $410 $540 $2,520 $960 $430 $1,160 $700 $540 $750 $490 $380 $1,110 $720 $710 $680 PAGE 23 This page intentionally blank. IV: REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACTS 1998-2016P NORTHERN ARIZONA WEST COAST ARIZONA NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA PHOENIX & CENTRAL ARIZONA TUCSON & SOUTHERN ARIZONA The Northern Arizona region includes Apache, Coconino and Navajo counties. West Coast Arizona includes La Paz, Mohave and Yuma counties. North Central Arizona includes Gila and Yavapai counties. Phoenix and Central Arizona includes Maricopa and Pinal counties. Tucson and Southern Arizona includes Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Pima and Santa Cruz counties. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 25 2016p Arizona Regional Travel Impacts Travel Spending Total Visitor Northern Arizona West Coast Arizona North Central Arizona Phoenix & Central Arizona Tucson & Southern Arizona Arizona Earnings Related Travel-Generated Impacts Employment Local Taxes State Taxes Total Taxes ($Million) ($Million) ($Million) (jobs) ($Million) ($Million) ($Million) 1,733 1,275 1,042 13,891 3,305 21,245 1,658 1,191 996 10,954 2,756 17,555 500 354 294 4,478 838 6,464 18,340 14,440 11,960 108,110 31,310 184,160 84 47 44 613 105 893 76 57 47 538 141 859 160 104 91 1,151 246 1,751 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. The sum of regional visitor spending is less than statewide visitor spending because a portion of ground transportation is allocated to “other travel” at the regional level. PAGE 26 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Arizona Regional Direct Travel Spending, 1998-2016p ($Millions) Annual Percent Chg. 1998 Northern Arizona Total Spending 919 Visitor Spending 890 Non-transportation 831 Transportation 59 West Coast Arizona Total Spending 795 Visitor Spending 756 Non-transportation 700 Transportation 55 North Central Arizona Total Spending 570 Visitor Spending 543 Non-transportation 512 Transportation 31 Phoenix & Central Arizona Total Spending 7,216 Visitor Spending 5,721 Non-transportation 4,410 Transportation 1,311 Tucson & Southern Arizona Total Spending 2,355 Visitor Spending 2,095 Non-transportation 1,779 Transportation 316 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016p 15-16p 98-16p 1,058 1,017 934 83 998 965 892 73 1,092 1,039 938 101 1,248 1,182 1,037 145 1,386 1,307 1,132 175 1,339 1,266 1,102 164 1,411 1,325 1,131 195 1,483 1,383 1,180 204 1,510 1,408 1,209 200 1,598 1,497 1,294 203 1,653 1,567 1,397 169 1,733 1,658 1,504 154 4.8 5.8 7.6 -9.1 3.6 3.5 3.4 5.5 908 852 775 77 958 900 827 74 1,065 994 888 106 1,233 1,133 985 148 1,280 1,150 970 179 1,263 1,138 970 168 1,335 1,191 991 200 1,353 1,206 1,003 203 1,360 1,211 1,011 200 1,373 1,221 1,027 194 1,287 1,194 1,038 156 1,274 1,190 1,054 136 -1.0 -0.4 1.6 -13.1 2.7 2.6 2.3 5.1 689 655 608 47 694 658 615 43 742 694 633 61 884 819 731 88 915 843 737 107 877 813 715 98 923 850 732 118 973 898 772 126 996 920 797 123 1,024 947 826 121 1,026 975 877 98 1,041 995 911 85 1.5 2.1 3.8 -12.9 3.4 3.4 3.3 5.8 8,362 6,561 5,044 1,517 7,834 6,286 4,864 1,422 9,276 11,136 11,261 11,089 11,863 12,219 12,638 13,264 13,636 13,892 7,346 8,669 8,620 8,614 9,130 9,290 9,582 10,140 10,639 10,955 5,526 6,376 6,228 6,189 6,500 6,641 6,858 7,269 7,783 8,130 1,820 2,293 2,392 2,425 2,630 2,649 2,724 2,870 2,856 2,825 1.9 3.0 4.5 -1.1 3.7 3.7 3.5 4.4 2,718 2,414 2,029 385 2,733 2,360 2,004 356 3,038 2,609 2,154 456 -3.7 -3.6 -2.7 -6.9 1.9 1.5 1.3 2.8 3,406 2,883 2,310 572 3,299 2,719 2,132 587 3,207 2,671 2,112 559 3,267 2,668 2,071 597 3,461 2,771 2,161 609 3,432 2,805 2,206 598 3,503 2,874 2,266 608 3,432 2,861 2,299 562 3,305 2,757 2,236 523 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 27 Arizona Regional Travel-Generated Earnings, 1998-2016p ($ Millions) Annual Percent Chg. Northern Arizona West Coast Arizona North Central Arizona Phoenix & Central Arizona Tucson & Southern Arizona Arizona 1998 257 195 155 2,268 506 3,380 2000 289 216 184 2,627 579 3,895 2002 277 234 188 2,510 603 3,811 2004 300 254 195 2,904 649 4,303 2006 333 291 231 3,404 720 4,979 2008 391 309 246 3,461 712 5,118 2010 375 297 220 3,398 679 4,969 2011 384 300 218 3,588 685 5,176 2012 401 301 231 3,716 744 5,393 2013 414 306 242 3,854 730 5,546 2014 443 323 259 4,020 781 5,827 2015 2016p 471 500 334 354 276 294 4,309 4,478 826 838 6,216 6,464 15-16p 6.2 5.9 6.5 3.9 1.4 4.0 98-16p 3.8 3.4 3.6 3.9 2.8 3.7 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. Arizona Regional Travel-Generated Employment, 1998-2016p (thousands) Annual Percent Chg. Northern Arizona West Coast Arizona North Central Arizona Phoenix & Central Arizona Tucson & Southern Arizona Arizona 1998 16.2 11.8 9.5 87.6 28.1 153.4 2000 16.8 12.1 10.2 91.4 30.2 160.7 2002 15.2 12.9 11.4 82.2 30.2 151.9 2004 15.4 13.0 11.0 88.2 31.6 159.2 2006 15.7 14.5 11.4 95.1 32.9 169.6 2008 16.8 13.7 11.5 94.5 30.1 166.6 2010 16.0 13.2 10.1 88.1 28.5 155.9 2011 16.1 13.3 10.1 90.8 28.4 158.7 2012 16.2 13.2 10.4 93.0 29.7 162.5 2013 16.6 13.1 10.5 95.8 29.5 165.6 2014 17.2 13.5 11.2 100.2 30.6 172.7 2015 2016p 17.6 18.3 14.0 14.4 11.5 12.0 105.2 108.1 31.1 31.3 179.5 184.2 15-16p 4.3 2.8 3.7 2.8 0.5 2.6 98-16p 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.6 1.0 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. Travel-Generated Employment and Earnings as Percent of Total, 2016p Northern Arizona West Coast Arizona North Central Arizona Phoenix & Central Arizona Tucson & Southern Arizona Arizona Total PAGE 28 Employment (thousands) Percent Total Travel Travel 156.2 18.5 11.8% 164.3 14.0 8.5% 120.4 11.7 9.7% 2,616.3 107.4 4.1% 596.7 30.5 5.1% 3,653.9 182.1 5.0% Earnings (Million) Total $6,643 $7,657 $4,552 $142,217 $29,117 $190,186 Travel $505 $344 $287 $4,462 $816 $6,415 Percent Travel 7.6% 4.5% 6.3% 3.1% 2.8% 3.4% Source: Dean Runyan Associates, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total and travel-generated employment estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Northern Arizona Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p 2008 2010 2012 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 1,307 1,266 1,383 Other Travel* 80 73 99 Total Direct Spending 1,386 1,339 1,483 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 803 764 840 Private Home 142 145 161 Campground 49 48 50 Vacation Home 89 89 94 Day Travel 223 220 238 Destination Spending 1,307 1,266 1,383 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 363 344 381 Food Service 304 309 331 Food Stores 78 76 83 Local Tran. & Gas 167 150 190 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 181 176 181 Retail Sales 206 198 205 Visitor Air Tran. 8 13 14 Destination Spending 1,307 1,266 1,383 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 243 231 244 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 83 91 100 Retail** 46 39 40 Visitor Air Tran. 6 6 6 Other Travel* 13 7 11 Total Direct Earnings 391 375 401 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 10.3 9.9 10.0 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 4.1 4.2 4.1 Retail** 1.9 1.6 1.6 Visitor Air Tran. 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other Travel* 0.4 0.2 0.4 Total Direct Employment 16.8 16.0 16.2 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 59.5 60.1 64.1 State Tax Receipts 60.3 61.4 69.5 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 119.8 121.5 133.5 2013 2014 2015 2016p 1,408 102 1,510 1,497 101 1,598 1,567 87 1,653 1,658 75 1,733 863 159 50 95 242 1,408 934 163 49 97 253 1,497 1,007 158 47 97 258 1,567 1,088 157 47 99 267 1,658 398 340 83 186 184 204 13 1,408 439 364 88 187 193 211 15 1,497 494 390 93 153 202 218 17 1,567 546 422 95 138 215 227 16 1,658 254 102 40 5 13 414 268 112 43 7 14 443 284 118 46 8 14 471 301 126 50 9 14 500 10.2 4.3 1.6 0.1 0.4 16.6 10.4 4.6 1.6 0.1 0.5 17.2 10.6 4.6 1.7 0.2 0.5 17.6 11.0 4.9 1.8 0.2 0.4 18.3 64.4 66.2 130.6 70.2 67.4 137.6 77.4 71.9 149.4 83.7 76.2 159.9 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. Northern Arizona includes Apache, Coconino and Navajo counties. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 29 West Coast Arizona Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p 2008 2010 2012 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 1,150 1,138 1,206 Other Travel* 130 126 147 Total Direct Spending 1,280 1,263 1,353 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 259 253 277 Private Home 247 250 265 Campground 125 126 128 Vacation Home 99 99 106 Day Travel 420 410 429 Destination Spending 1,150 1,138 1,206 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 135 124 132 Food Service 245 259 271 Food Stores 128 124 131 Local Tran. & Gas 167 156 191 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 251 251 255 Retail Sales 212 211 214 Visitor Air Tran. 12 12 12 Destination Spending 1,150 1,138 1,206 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 130 136 137 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 106 95 98 Retail** 56 50 49 Visitor Air Tran. 0 1 0 Other Travel* 17 15 16 Total Direct Earnings 309 297 301 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 6.5 6.6 6.4 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 4.6 4.2 4.6 Retail** 2.0 1.8 1.7 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.6 0.5 0.5 Total Direct Employment 13.7 13.2 13.2 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 42.1 42.1 42.7 State Tax Receipts 53.1 55.5 59.7 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 95.2 97.7 102.4 2013 2014 2015 2016p 1,211 148 1,360 1,221 152 1,373 1,194 93 1,287 1,191 84 1,275 267 277 122 106 440 1,211 279 272 120 108 441 1,221 293 259 117 108 416 1,194 306 256 116 110 402 1,191 128 279 135 188 250 219 12 1,211 137 284 138 180 250 218 14 1,221 148 292 135 141 254 209 15 1,194 157 304 130 122 261 203 14 1,191 144 95 50 0 17 306 150 103 52 0 19 323 172 105 52 0 5 334 187 108 52 1 7 354 6.7 4.3 1.7 0.0 0.5 13.1 6.8 4.4 1.7 0.0 0.5 13.5 7.5 4.6 1.7 0.0 0.2 14.0 8.0 4.6 1.7 0.0 0.2 14.4 42.6 57.5 100.1 43.4 55.8 99.2 45.4 56.6 102.0 47.1 57.3 104.4 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. West Coast Arizona includes La Paz, Mohave and Yuma counties. PAGE 30 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES North Central Arizona Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p 2008 2010 2012 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 843 813 898 Other Travel* 71 64 75 Total Direct Spending 915 877 973 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 277 250 293 Private Home 115 118 130 Campground 26 25 27 Vacation Home 38 37 39 Day Travel 388 383 408 Destination Spending 843 813 898 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 139 121 141 Food Service 157 161 176 Food Stores 62 61 66 Local Tran. & Gas 106 97 124 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 268 261 273 Retail Sales 110 111 116 Visitor Air Tran. 0 1 2 Destination Spending 843 813 898 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 107 96 110 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 102 93 89 Retail** 28 24 25 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 9 7 6 Total Direct Earnings 246 220 231 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 4.7 4.2 4.6 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 5.2 4.7 4.6 Retail** 1.2 1.0 1.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.4 0.3 0.2 Total Direct Employment 11.5 10.1 10.4 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 33.2 31.8 33.8 State Tax Receipts 39.3 39.4 44.0 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 72.4 71.1 77.7 2013 2014 2015 2016p 920 77 996 947 78 1,024 975 51 1,026 996 46 1,042 312 130 27 40 411 920 332 131 28 41 415 947 365 128 27 41 413 975 387 126 27 42 413 996 153 183 67 122 277 117 1 920 167 190 70 120 280 118 1 947 192 202 72 97 289 121 1 975 211 211 72 84 295 122 1 996 120 89 25 0 7 242 129 95 26 0 8 259 146 98 28 0 3 276 159 101 29 1 3 294 4.8 4.5 1.0 0.0 0.2 10.5 5.1 4.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 11.2 5.5 4.8 1.1 0.0 0.1 11.5 5.9 4.9 1.1 0.0 0.1 12.0 35.8 43.0 78.8 37.7 42.9 80.6 41.4 45.3 86.8 44.1 46.7 90.8 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. North Central Arizona includes Gila and Yavapai counties. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 31 Phoenix & Central Arizona Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p 2008 2010 2012 2013 2014 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 8,620 8,614 9,290 9,582 10,140 Other Travel* 2,642 2,475 2,928 3,055 3,125 Total Direct Spending 11,261 11,089 12,219 12,638 13,264 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 4,481 4,304 4,695 4,872 5,212 Private Home 2,355 2,492 2,624 2,696 2,828 Campground 289 278 297 304 321 Vacation Home 322 332 357 365 378 Day Travel 1,173 1,208 1,318 1,346 1,401 Destination Spending 8,620 8,614 9,290 9,582 10,140 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 1,680 1,412 1,568 1,642 1,794 Food Service 1,852 1,995 2,156 2,243 2,385 Food Stores 311 318 343 352 375 Local Tran. & Gas 1,111 1,114 1,297 1,313 1,350 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 1,140 1,157 1,205 1,229 1,280 Retail Sales 1,245 1,307 1,368 1,391 1,435 Visitor Air Tran. 1,281 1,311 1,353 1,411 1,520 Destination Spending 8,620 8,614 9,290 9,582 10,140 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 1,258 1,226 1,328 1,396 1,473 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 539 539 587 616 670 Retail** 233 217 227 228 246 Ground Tran. 102 109 119 120 129 Visitor Air Tran. 543 564 602 602 610 Other Travel* 786 743 854 893 892 Total Direct Earnings 3,461 3,398 3,716 3,854 4,020 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 45.0 43.1 45.0 47.2 48.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 18.0 16.8 17.9 18.8 20.0 Retail** 7.3 6.7 6.7 6.8 7.2 Ground Tran. 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.2 Visitor Air Tran. 7.5 6.8 7.2 7.0 7.3 Other Travel* 13.9 12.0 13.3 13.0 14.1 Total Direct Employment 94.5 88.1 93.0 95.8 100.2 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 472.3 466.6 495.3 514.2 535.6 State Tax Receipts 424.3 445.5 502.5 495.4 490.5 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 896.6 912.1 997.8 1,009.5 1,026.1 2015 2016p 10,639 2,997 13,636 10,954 2,937 13,891 5,613 2,918 314 386 1,408 10,639 5,842 2,970 315 397 1,430 10,954 2,025 2,547 394 1,238 1,332 1,485 1,618 10,639 2,115 2,706 399 1,202 1,387 1,522 1,623 10,954 1,572 701 265 139 684 947 4,309 1,648 738 281 149 693 971 4,478 50.1 21.4 7.6 3.3 7.7 15.1 105.2 51.9 21.5 7.9 3.6 7.8 15.4 108.1 586.1 521.5 1,107.6 613.1 537.9 1,150.9 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. Phoenix & Central Arizona includes Maricopa and Pinal counties. PAGE 32 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Tucson & Southern Arizona Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p 2008 2010 2012 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 2,719 2,671 2,771 Other Travel* 580 536 690 Total Direct Spending 3,299 3,207 3,461 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 1,114 1,097 1,118 Private Home 569 575 600 Campground 49 42 46 Vacation Home 56 56 60 Day Travel 932 901 947 Destination Spending 2,719 2,671 2,771 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 428 391 394 Food Service 616 652 682 Food Stores 290 274 289 Local Tran. & Gas 364 355 411 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 209 211 212 Retail Sales 590 584 585 Visitor Air Tran. 223 204 198 Destination Spending 2,719 2,671 2,771 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 383 375 411 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 96 94 93 Retail** 131 117 116 Ground Tran. 25 27 29 Visitor Air Tran. 12 11 9 Other Travel* 65 55 86 Total Direct Earnings 712 679 744 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 16.9 16.4 17.2 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 5.4 5.5 5.4 Retail** 4.8 4.1 4.0 Ground Tran. 0.7 0.7 0.7 Visitor Air Tran. 0.2 0.2 0.2 Other Travel* 2.1 1.6 2.2 Total Direct Employment 30.1 28.5 29.7 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 98.5 97.7 99.4 State Tax Receipts 131.0 136.2 149.2 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 229.5 233.9 248.6 2013 2014 2015 2016p 2,805 627 3,432 2,874 629 3,503 2,861 571 3,432 2,756 549 3,305 1,131 592 45 60 976 2,805 1,169 604 45 61 995 2,874 1,227 599 43 61 931 2,861 1,197 589 42 62 866 2,756 398 699 302 408 211 597 190 2,805 414 724 313 406 214 600 202 2,874 443 760 299 358 220 578 204 2,861 440 756 275 319 217 544 205 2,756 416 93 117 29 8 67 730 444 104 123 31 10 70 781 481 107 123 33 11 71 826 491 107 119 33 12 76 838 17.3 5.4 4.0 0.7 0.1 1.9 29.5 17.9 5.8 4.1 0.8 0.2 1.9 30.6 18.4 5.9 4.0 0.8 0.2 1.8 31.1 18.4 6.1 3.9 0.8 0.2 2.0 31.3 98.6 142.9 241.5 100.3 139.8 240.1 105.6 143.8 249.4 105.0 140.5 245.5 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. Tucson & Southern Arizona includes Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Pima and Santa Cruz counties. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 33 This page intentionally blank. V: COUNTY TRAVEL IMPACTS 1998-2016P APACHE COCONINO MOHAVE NAVAJO YAVAPAI LA PAZ GILA GREENLEE MARICOPA PINAL GRAHAM YUMA PIMA COCHISE SANTA CRUZ DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 35 The analysis of travel impacts at the county level provides a valuable overview of how the economic benefits of travel and tourism are distributed throughout the state. Urban areas, such as Maricopa County, tend to have highly developed travel industry infrastructure consisting of large inventories of amusement and recreation opportunities, commercial accommodations, and well-developed transportation links. Hotel/motel guests are important to these areas and, hence, a large proportion of travel expenditures are spent on overnight lodging. In many of the less urbanized areas of Arizona, however, the economic significance of travel and tourism is actually relatively more important. The infrastructure that serves visitors to Maricopa County also serves local residents. Most of the spending on recreation and food services in Maricopa county is by local residents. This is not the case in most other less urbanized areas of the state – leisure and hospitality businesses are generally much more dependent on visitor spending rather than local residents. In the graph below, the two most populous counties in Arizona, Maricopa and Pima, are compared with the thirteen other counties in the state with respect to their share of total employment – two-thirds of all travel-generated jobs in the state are in the two most populous counties. Distribution of Travel-Generated Employment, 2016p Percent of State Direct Travel-Generated Employment All other 31% Maricopa & Pima 69% Source: Dean Runyan Associates, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total and travel-generated employments estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. PAGE 36 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES However, as a group the less urbanized counties in the state actually have a higher proportion of travel-generated employment in relation to the total employment of the county. This is shown graphically below. Four percent of all employment in Maricopa and Pima counties is travel-generated. By contrast, the proportion is more than double for the other Arizona counties. Percent of Total Area Employment That is Travel-Generated, 2016p Maricopa & Pima All other 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: Dean Runyan Associates, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total and travel-generated employment estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Travel-generated employment in Maricopa and Pima counties constitutes 4.1 percent of all employment in those counties. The comparable figure for other Arizona counties is 9.0 percent. In general, the employment and earnings estimates provided in the preceding figures are probably the best measure at the county level of the relative importance of travel and tourism for local economies. The following table provides estimates for individual counties. Total employment includes all full-time and part-time wage and salary employment and self-employment. Because total employment includes all jobs, regardless of the hours worked, the average annual earnings of the job or the number of individuals employed, this indicator is in some respects less useful than earnings estimates. Nonetheless, the distribution of counties is similar for earnings and employment. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 37 Travel-Generated Employment and Earnings as Percent of Total, 2016p Employment Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham/Greenlee La Paz Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma Arizona Total Total 28,010 50,570 84,420 20,700 17,180 8,160 2,518,950 68,500 43,760 508,740 97,320 20,220 99,730 87,620 3,653,880 Travel 1,700 3,580 12,640 2,920 920 1,350 101,270 6,710 4,000 24,700 6,840 2,110 9,040 6,370 184,160 Earnings (Million) Percent Travel 6.1% 7.1% 15.0% 14.1% 5.4% 16.5% 4.0% 9.8% 9.1% 4.9% 7.0% 10.4% 9.1% 7.3% 5.0% Total $1,103 $2,650 $3,878 $789 $872 $322 $138,063 $2,748 $1,661 $24,595 $4,154 $1,000 $3,763 $4,587 $190,186 Travel $36 $79 $365 $73 $14 $34 $4,310 $165 $98 $693 $168 $53 $221 $155 $6,464 Percent Travel 3.3% 3.0% 9.4% 9.3% 1.6% 10.6% 3.1% 6.0% 5.9% 2.8% 4.1% 5.3% 5.9% 3.4% 3.4% Source: Dean Runyan Associates, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total and travel-generated employment estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Note: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. Direct travel impact estimates for 1998 through 2016p can be found on the following pages. As noted in the appendix to this report, county level estimates are necessarily less reliable than the statewide estimates. Furthermore, estimates for the smallest counties are less reliable than those for larger counties due to survey sample sizes and other data limitations. For this reason, small changes in year-to-year estimates are less important than longer-term trends. PAGE 38 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES 2016p Arizona County Travel Impacts Travel Spending Total Visitor Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham/Greenlee La Paz Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma Arizona Earnings Related Travel-Generated Impacts Employment Local Taxes State Taxes Total Taxes ($Million) ($Million) ($Million) (jobs) ($Million) ($Million) ($Million) 116 307 1,311 279 67 139 13,255 529 305 2,697 636 234 763 606 21,245 105 287 1,264 270 60 136 10,383 490 289 2,183 572 227 725 564 18,617 36 79 365 73 14 34 4,310 165 98 693 168 53 221 155 6,464 1,700 3,580 12,640 2,920 920 1,350 101,270 6,710 4,000 24,700 6,840 2,110 9,040 6,370 184,160 3.8 12.4 67.3 8.6 2.5 4.5 590.3 20.6 12.6 82.8 22.8 7.3 35.5 21.9 892.9 5.8 14.0 55.8 12.5 3.2 6.1 507.4 24.8 14.6 114.0 30.5 9.3 34.2 26.4 858.5 9.5 26.4 123.1 21.1 5.7 10.6 1,097.7 45.5 27.2 196.8 53.2 16.6 69.6 48.3 1,751.4 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. The sum of county visitor spending is less than statewide visitor spending because a portion of county ground transportation is allocated to “other travel” at the county level. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 39 Arizona County Direct Travel Spending, 1998-2016p ($Millions) Annual Percent Chg. Apache Total Spending Visitor Spending Non-transportation Transportation Cochise Total Spending Visitor Spending Non-transportation Transportation Coconino Total Spending Visitor Spending Non-transportation Transportation Gila Total Spending Visitor Spending Non-transportation Transportation Graham/Greenlee Total Spending Visitor Spending Non-transportation Transportation 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016p 15-16p 98-16p 83 78 72 6 104 96 87 9 99 93 85 8 101 92 81 11 122 109 94 15 133 118 100 19 122 108 92 17 127 110 90 20 129 111 91 20 117 100 81 19 119 103 84 19 115 102 88 15 116 105 92 13 0.9 2.8 5.1 -11.3 1.9 1.7 1.4 4.4 227 214 199 15 266 253 230 22 272 257 237 20 312 292 262 30 341 315 274 41 376 346 295 51 370 343 295 47 362 329 276 54 350 317 264 53 343 311 260 51 338 307 258 48 325 302 264 39 307 287 256 32 -5.6 -5.1 -2.9 -17.4 1.7 1.6 1.4 4.2 640 626 585 41 705 685 629 56 667 652 603 49 759 730 662 69 846 813 715 98 945 903 787 116 942 904 790 113 996 952 818 134 1,050 994 853 141 1,088 1,027 888 139 1,172 1,111 967 144 1,236 1,182 1,059 123 1,311 1,264 1,151 113 6.1 7.0 8.7 -7.8 4.1 4.0 3.8 5.8 196 191 180 11 218 212 196 16 214 208 194 14 229 221 202 20 260 251 223 27 260 249 216 33 257 246 216 30 266 253 217 36 279 266 228 38 282 269 232 37 278 266 230 35 278 268 240 28 278 270 246 25 0.1 0.6 2.6 -12.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 4.6 36 33 30 3 44 39 34 5 40 36 32 4 43 37 32 5 62 54 46 8 67 58 47 10 62 53 43 9 70 60 48 12 76 64 52 12 88 77 63 13 92 81 68 13 69 61 52 9 67 60 53 7 -3.3 -1.3 2.3 -22.4 3.4 3.4 3.2 4.6 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. PAGE 40 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Arizona County Direct Travel Spending, 1998-2016p ($Millions) Annual Percent Chg. La Paz Total Spending Visitor Spending Non-transportation Transportation Maricopa Total Spending Visitor Spending Non-transportation Transportation Mohave Total Spending Visitor Spending Non-transportation Transportation Navajo Total Spending Visitor Spending Non-transportation Transportation Pima Total Spending Visitor Spending Non-transportation Transportation 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 105 104 97 7 114 112 103 9 117 115 107 8 122 120 108 12 127 123 108 15 133 129 110 19 128 124 107 17 139 135 113 21 142 138 116 22 144 139 118 22 141 136 116 20 6,994 5,513 4,219 1,295 8,110 6,330 4,837 1,494 7,562 6,033 4,634 1,399 312 288 260 29 354 321 282 39 381 344 307 37 424 387 341 46 520 468 400 68 522 450 371 80 530 461 385 76 545 467 380 87 554 474 384 90 580 497 405 92 581 494 408 87 524 484 416 68 195 186 174 12 249 236 218 18 231 220 204 16 233 217 196 21 281 260 229 31 308 286 246 40 275 254 221 34 289 264 223 41 304 278 236 43 306 281 239 42 307 283 243 40 2,132 2,384 2,722 2,573 2,513 2,595 1,782 1,987 2,241 2,043 2,022 2,051 1,460 1,582 1,736 1,540 1,541 1,542 322 405 504 503 481 509 Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. 2,764 2,129 1,611 519 2,713 2,140 1,631 508 2,784 2,208 1,686 522 1,849 2,127 1,609 1,847 1,319 1,500 290 347 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES 2015 2016p 15-16p 140 136 120 16 98-15p 139 136 122 14 -0.4 0.0 1.9 -13.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 4.2 8,956 10,718 10,734 10,507 11,232 11,594 12,017 12,620 12,995 13,256 7,056 8,301 8,164 8,106 8,586 8,756 9,051 9,585 10,071 10,383 5,270 6,059 5,845 5,756 6,048 6,198 6,416 6,804 7,288 7,621 1,786 2,241 2,318 2,350 2,538 2,557 2,635 2,781 2,783 2,762 2.0 3.1 4.6 -0.7 3.6 3.6 3.3 4.3 529 490 431 59 0.9 1.3 3.6 -12.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 4.0 302 283 250 32 306 289 261 28 1.3 2.2 4.2 -13.2 2.5 2.5 2.3 4.9 2,772 2,240 1,745 495 2,697 2,183 1,714 470 -2.7 -2.5 -1.8 -5.1 2.1 1.7 1.5 2.7 PAGE 41 Arizona County Direct Travel Spending, 1998-2016p ($Millions) Annual Percent Chg. Pinal Total Spending Visitor Spending Non-transportation Transportation Santa Cruz Total Spending Visitor Spending Non-transportation Transportation Yavapai Total Spending Visitor Spending Non-transportation Transportation Yuma Total Spending Visitor Spending Non-transportation Transportation Arizona Total Spending Visitor Spending Non-transportation Transportation 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016p 15-16p 98-16p 222 208 191 16 252 230 207 23 272 252 230 23 321 290 256 34 418 368 316 52 527 456 383 74 582 509 433 76 631 544 452 92 625 535 442 92 621 532 442 89 644 555 465 89 640 568 495 73 636 572 509 63 -0.7 0.7 2.9 -13.9 6.0 5.8 5.6 7.8 242 239 231 8 281 276 264 11 289 285 274 11 300 294 279 15 282 274 254 19 283 273 250 23 263 254 233 21 239 228 206 22 271 260 235 25 288 278 252 25 289 278 254 24 266 257 239 19 234 227 213 14 -12.0 -11.8 -10.8 -24.8 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 3.4 375 352 332 20 471 443 412 31 480 450 421 29 513 473 432 41 623 569 508 61 655 595 521 74 620 566 499 67 657 597 515 82 695 632 544 87 715 651 565 86 746 681 596 85 748 707 637 69 763 725 665 60 2.0 2.6 4.3 -13.2 4.0 4.1 3.9 6.3 377 364 344 20 439 419 390 29 459 441 413 28 519 487 440 47 586 542 478 64 625 570 489 81 606 553 478 76 650 589 498 92 657 594 503 91 635 575 488 87 651 590 504 87 623 575 502 73 606 564 501 63 -2.8 -1.9 -0.2 -13.1 2.7 2.5 2.1 6.7 11,854 13,735 13,216 15,215 17,907 18,142 17,775 18,798 19,489 19,936 20,762 21,034 21,245 10,005 11,500 11,169 12,683 14,686 14,639 14,502 15,165 15,548 15,927 16,678 17,235 17,555 8,232 9,390 9,201 10,140 11,441 11,199 11,088 11,425 11,757 12,081 12,683 13,394 13,835 1,772 2,110 1,968 2,543 3,246 3,439 3,414 3,740 3,791 3,845 3,995 3,841 3,723 1.0 1.9 3.3 -3.1 3.3 3.2 2.9 4.2 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. PAGE 42 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Arizona County Travel-Generated Earnings, 1998-2016p ($ Millions) Annual Percent Chg. Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham/Greenlee La Paz Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma Arizona 1998 20 50 189 50 9 23 2,214 85 48 404 54 44 105 86 3,380 2000 24 56 204 54 10 25 2,568 94 61 463 58 50 129 97 3,895 2002 24 59 195 54 9 26 2,445 104 57 483 65 52 134 104 3,811 2004 23 67 221 57 9 26 2,830 110 56 519 74 54 139 118 4,303 2006 28 73 239 65 14 27 3,310 133 66 582 94 52 166 131 4,979 2008 32 85 284 66 15 29 3,339 136 76 557 122 54 180 144 5,118 2010 31 81 267 56 13 29 3,273 125 77 537 125 49 164 143 4,969 2011 31 78 276 55 14 31 3,460 125 77 549 128 44 164 144 5,176 2012 32 77 284 58 15 31 3,582 124 85 605 134 47 173 146 5,393 2013 29 77 299 61 17 33 3,723 134 86 587 131 49 181 139 5,546 2014 31 79 323 65 18 33 3,884 145 89 631 137 53 194 145 5,827 2015 2016p 33 36 81 79 343 366 69 73 15 13 34 34 4,162 4,311 151 165 94 98 674 692 147 169 57 51 207 221 150 156 6,216 6,464 15-16p 9.5 -1.9 6.6 6.0 -11.4 0.4 3.6 9.3 3.9 2.7 14.9 -11.3 6.7 4.3 4.0 98-16p 3.3 2.6 3.7 2.1 2.4 2.1 3.8 3.7 4.0 3.0 6.6 0.8 4.2 3.4 3.7 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 43 Arizona County Travel-Generated Employment, 1998-2016p Annual Percent Chg. 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016p Apache 1,560 1,640 1,540 1,530 1,610 1,670 1,660 1,640 1,590 1,480 1,540 1,610 1,700 Cochise 3,690 3,870 3,800 3,930 4,130 4,370 4,070 3,910 3,750 3,710 3,750 3,760 3,580 Coconino 11,230 11,190 10,240 10,750 10,730 11,570 10,820 10,950 10,960 11,420 11,890 12,030 12,640 Gila 3,160 3,130 3,230 3,050 3,170 3,010 2,670 2,670 2,660 2,640 2,690 2,740 2,920 Graham/Greenlee 680 700 810 840 1,200 1,230 1,000 1,030 1,090 1,210 1,210 980 920 La Paz 1,510 1,420 1,360 1,290 1,210 1,230 1,200 1,320 1,310 1,380 1,380 1,330 1,350 Maricopa 84,480 88,260 78,370 84,240 90,450 89,200 83,060 85,430 87,480 90,160 94,530 99,180 101,270 Mohave 5,510 5,690 5,960 6,030 7,080 6,400 5,900 5,780 5,560 5,750 6,100 6,450 6,710 Navajo 3,440 3,950 3,430 3,150 3,370 3,590 3,520 3,510 3,650 3,690 3,760 3,940 4,000 Pima 21,320 23,110 23,050 24,230 25,130 22,240 21,440 21,630 22,950 22,600 23,440 24,050 24,700 Pinal 3,160 3,130 3,780 3,980 4,690 5,260 5,050 5,360 5,500 5,660 5,710 6,010 6,840 Santa Cruz 2,440 2,530 2,550 2,560 2,400 2,260 2,000 1,840 1,920 2,020 2,180 2,360 2,110 Yavapai 6,380 7,110 8,140 7,910 8,240 8,450 7,480 7,470 7,730 7,910 8,500 8,790 9,040 Yuma 4,820 4,970 5,600 5,720 6,200 6,110 6,070 6,170 6,340 6,010 6,050 6,260 6,370 Arizona 153,400 160,710 151,880 159,190 169,600 166,570 155,930 158,700 162,500 165,640 172,730 179,490 184,150 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. PAGE 44 15-16p 5.6 -4.7 5.0 6.4 -5.9 1.2 2.1 4.1 1.5 2.7 13.8 -10.5 2.9 1.8 2.6 98-16p 0.5 -0.2 0.7 -0.4 2.4 -0.6 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 4.4 -0.8 2.0 1.6 1.0 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Apache County Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 118.4 108.2 Other Travel* 14.7 13.8 Total Direct Spending 133.1 122.0 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 59.6 49.8 Private Home 34.8 34.6 Campground 7.1 7.0 Vacation Home 12.0 12.1 Day Travel 4.8 4.6 Destination Spending 118.4 108.2 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 26.1 22.2 Food Service 29.3 28.6 Food Stores 9.6 9.3 Local Tran. & Gas 18.7 16.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 8.9 8.3 Retail Sales 25.7 23.3 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 118.4 108.2 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 20.7 21.8 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 4.3 4.0 Retail** 5.8 4.8 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.8 0.5 Total Direct Earnings 31.6 31.0 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 1,050 1,130 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 300 300 Retail** 280 210 Ground Tran. 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 Other Travel* 50 20 Total Direct Employment 1,670 1,660 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 4.0 3.9 State Tax Receipts 5.9 5.9 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 9.9 9.8 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016p 111.5 17.2 128.6 100.0 16.5 116.5 102.9 16.1 119.1 102.2 12.8 114.9 105.0 11.0 116.0 46.8 39.0 7.7 13.0 5.0 111.5 37.1 37.7 7.5 12.9 4.7 100.0 38.5 39.1 7.4 13.1 4.8 102.9 40.3 37.1 7.1 13.0 4.7 102.2 43.1 37.1 6.9 13.4 4.7 105.3 21.0 29.4 10.0 20.4 8.3 22.4 0.0 111.5 17.3 27.4 9.6 18.7 7.6 19.4 0.0 100.0 17.9 28.8 10.1 18.5 7.8 19.9 0.0 102.9 19.1 29.9 10.2 14.7 8.0 20.3 0.0 102.2 21.0 32.0 10.0 13.0 8.0 21.0 0.0 105.0 23.0 3.7 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 31.9 20.8 3.4 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 28.9 21.8 4.0 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 30.8 23.5 4.1 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 32.9 26.0 4.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 36.0 1,110 240 200 0 0 20 1,590 1,050 210 200 0 0 30 1,480 1,090 220 210 0 0 30 1,540 1,150 210 220 0 0 30 1,610 1,240 200 230 0 0 30 1,700 3.8 6.2 10.0 3.2 5.3 8.5 3.3 5.4 8.6 3.5 5.5 9.0 4.0 6.0 10.0 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 45 Cochise County Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 345.5 342.5 Other Travel* 30.3 27.5 Total Direct Spending 375.8 370.0 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 144.1 144.3 Private Home 62.9 65.6 Campground 9.6 9.3 Vacation Home 6.6 6.6 Day Travel 122.3 116.6 Destination Spending 345.5 342.5 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 52.1 51.9 Food Service 84.1 88.0 Food Stores 59.5 55.8 Local Tran. & Gas 50.8 47.2 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 22.8 23.0 Retail Sales 76.1 76.6 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 345.5 342.5 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 49.0 49.0 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 11.7 11.0 Retail** 21.3 18.8 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 2.7 1.7 Total Direct Earnings 84.7 80.6 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 2,550 2,480 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 810 760 Retail** 880 750 Ground Tran. 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 Other Travel* 120 70 Total Direct Employment 4,370 4,070 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 14.7 15.0 State Tax Receipts 15.8 16.7 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 30.5 31.6 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016p 316.6 33.2 349.8 310.8 32.2 343.0 306.7 31.3 338.0 302.4 22.8 325.3 287.0 20.0 307.0 111.8 68.8 10.2 7.0 118.8 316.6 102.4 68.4 10.0 6.9 123.0 310.8 98.5 67.4 9.9 6.9 124.0 306.7 106.2 66.1 9.4 6.9 113.9 302.4 104.5 62.5 9.2 6.9 103.9 287.0 40.2 80.9 57.3 53.0 20.1 65.1 0.0 316.6 35.2 81.4 59.9 51.2 19.6 63.5 0.0 310.8 35.5 81.2 61.7 48.4 19.0 61.1 0.0 306.7 38.4 85.1 57.9 38.7 20.0 62.3 0.0 302.4 39.0 84.0 53.0 32.0 20.0 60.0 0.0 288.0 48.5 9.8 16.8 0.0 0.0 1.7 76.8 48.8 10.0 16.6 0.0 0.0 1.8 77.3 50.2 10.4 17.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 79.5 51.1 11.0 17.4 0.0 0.0 1.1 80.5 50.0 11.0 17.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 79.0 2,380 650 660 0 0 60 3,750 2,340 650 650 0 0 70 3,710 2,360 680 650 0 0 70 3,750 2,370 690 650 0 0 50 3,760 2,210 700 630 0 0 50 3,580 13.1 16.0 29.1 12.2 15.0 27.2 12.0 14.1 26.2 12.6 14.5 27.1 12.0 14.0 26.0 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 46 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Coconino County Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p 2008 2010 2012 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 902.8 903.7 993.5 Other Travel* 42.0 38.0 56.7 Total Direct Spending 944.8 941.7 1,050.2 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 602.3 600.0 664.9 Private Home 53.5 58.1 63.2 Campground 24.7 23.9 26.4 Vacation Home 31.6 31.8 33.9 Day Travel 190.6 189.9 205.2 Destination Spending 902.8 903.7 993.5 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 276.7 271.3 304.5 Food Service 205.6 214.8 230.7 Food Stores 48.4 48.1 52.1 Local Tran. & Gas 108.6 100.1 126.8 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 139.8 138.0 142.9 Retail Sales 116.0 118.1 122.8 Visitor Air Tran. 7.7 13.4 13.7 Destination Spending 902.8 903.7 993.5 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 173.9 161.6 169.3 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 65.7 69.3 74.4 Retail** 27.7 24.3 25.0 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 5.8 5.8 5.5 Other Travel* 10.5 5.8 10.2 Total Direct Earnings 283.6 266.8 284.3 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 6,890 6,480 6,600 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 3,160 3,140 3,000 Retail** 1,090 930 950 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 120 110 100 Other Travel* 300 160 310 Total Direct Employment 11,570 10,820 10,960 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 44.1 45.6 48.9 State Tax Receipts 40.9 42.3 48.4 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 85.0 87.9 97.2 2013 2014 2015 2016p 1,027.5 1,111.1 60.6 60.5 1,088.1 1,171.6 1,181.7 54.5 1,236.2 1,264.0 47.0 1,311.0 695.2 764.3 63.3 65.9 25.9 25.5 34.2 35.0 208.9 220.3 1,027.5 1,111.1 832.3 64.8 24.3 35.3 225.1 1,181.7 906.3 64.1 23.7 36.0 234.3 1,264.5 323.9 363.9 240.5 260.6 53.3 57.2 126.0 128.2 145.8 154.6 124.9 131.1 13.2 15.5 1,027.5 1,111.1 415.8 282.2 60.6 105.7 163.3 137.3 16.8 1,181.7 462.0 308.0 63.0 97.0 174.0 144.0 16.0 1,264.0 192.1 85.2 27.5 0.0 6.5 12.2 323.5 202.2 90.5 30.0 0.0 7.9 12.8 343.3 214.0 98.0 33.0 0.0 9.0 12.0 366.0 6,820 6,990 3,200 3,410 950 990 0 0 100 120 350 390 11,420 11,890 7,020 3,390 1,050 0 150 420 12,030 7,330 3,690 1,110 0 180 330 12,640 61.9 52.1 114.0 67.0 56.0 123.0 179.4 76.8 25.1 0.0 5.4 11.9 298.7 50.4 46.7 97.1 55.8 48.2 104.1 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 47 Gila County Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 248.6 246.4 Other Travel* 11.5 10.6 Total Direct Spending 260.1 257.0 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 42.6 40.7 Private Home 37.6 39.0 Campground 12.8 12.4 Vacation Home 13.6 13.4 Day Travel 142.0 140.9 Destination Spending 248.6 246.4 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 18.0 16.9 Food Service 43.2 45.4 Food Stores 20.2 20.2 Local Tran. & Gas 32.6 30.3 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 102.2 100.5 Retail Sales 32.4 33.1 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 248.6 246.4 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 23.4 22.4 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 32.8 25.2 Retail** 9.0 8.0 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.8 0.5 Total Direct Earnings 65.9 56.1 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 1,190 1,120 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 1,390 1,200 Retail** 380 330 Ground Tran. 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 Other Travel* 40 20 Total Direct Employment 3,010 2,670 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 7.7 7.4 State Tax Receipts 11.3 11.4 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 19.0 18.8 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016p 266.2 12.5 278.7 269.0 12.6 281.6 265.9 12.4 278.3 268.3 9.5 277.8 270.0 8.0 278.0 47.4 42.6 13.7 14.0 148.4 266.2 50.6 42.3 13.4 14.1 148.6 269.0 48.9 41.3 13.2 14.3 148.2 265.9 53.5 40.9 12.6 14.3 147.0 268.3 56.4 40.2 12.3 14.5 146.9 270.3 18.7 48.8 21.6 38.2 104.6 34.2 0.0 266.2 19.6 50.2 21.8 37.3 105.8 34.3 0.0 269.0 20.0 50.3 22.1 35.5 104.4 33.6 0.0 265.9 22.4 53.2 22.8 28.5 107.3 34.1 0.0 268.3 24.0 55.0 23.0 25.0 110.0 34.0 0.0 271.0 24.7 24.6 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 57.7 26.9 25.6 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 61.1 28.5 28.0 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 65.3 30.9 28.8 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 68.8 34.0 30.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.0 1,170 1,150 320 0 0 20 2,660 1,240 1,050 330 0 0 20 2,640 1,300 1,030 330 0 0 20 2,690 1,380 1,000 340 0 0 20 2,740 1,500 1,050 350 0 0 20 2,920 7.6 12.4 20.0 7.6 12.1 19.8 7.7 11.8 19.5 8.2 12.3 20.5 9.0 13.0 22.0 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 48 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Graham & Greenlee Counties Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p 2008 2010 2012 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 57.7 52.6 64.4 Other Travel* 9.8 9.1 11.1 Total Direct Spending 67.5 61.7 75.6 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 27.1 21.3 29.6 Private Home 21.7 22.7 25.1 Campground 2.0 1.9 2.1 Vacation Home 0.8 0.8 0.9 Day Travel 6.0 6.0 6.8 Destination Spending 57.7 52.6 64.4 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 9.9 7.6 10.6 Food Service 15.4 15.2 17.7 Food Stores 5.2 5.2 5.7 Local Tran. & Gas 10.3 9.4 12.4 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 4.4 4.1 4.6 Retail Sales 12.5 11.2 13.5 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 57.7 52.6 64.4 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 9.2 7.6 9.1 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 2.5 2.4 2.7 Retail** 3.0 2.4 2.8 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.7 0.4 0.4 Total Direct Earnings 15.3 12.8 15.0 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 640 500 570 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 420 380 390 Retail** 120 100 110 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 30 20 20 Total Direct Employment 1,230 1,000 1,090 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 2.3 2.0 2.5 State Tax Receipts 3.1 3.0 3.7 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 5.4 5.1 6.2 2013 2014 2015 2016p 76.5 11.0 87.6 80.8 11.1 91.8 60.8 8.5 69.3 60.0 7.0 67.0 40.8 25.4 2.1 0.9 7.3 76.5 44.1 26.0 2.0 0.9 7.7 80.8 27.9 23.5 1.9 0.9 6.5 60.8 27.1 23.4 1.9 0.9 6.4 59.8 15.5 20.4 6.1 13.1 5.1 16.3 0.0 76.5 16.0 22.1 6.5 13.2 5.5 17.5 0.0 80.8 9.9 18.6 5.9 9.0 4.5 13.0 0.0 60.8 9.0 20.0 6.0 7.0 5.0 13.0 0.0 60.0 10.7 2.8 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 17.1 11.0 3.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 18.0 8.9 2.5 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 14.7 8.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.0 660 400 120 0 0 20 1,210 650 410 130 0 0 20 1,210 520 330 110 0 0 20 980 470 320 110 0 0 20 920 3.2 4.0 7.2 3.4 4.1 7.4 2.5 3.3 5.8 2.0 4.0 6.0 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 49 La Paz County Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 129.2 123.9 Other Travel* 4.3 3.9 Total Direct Spending 133.5 127.8 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 6.6 3.9 Private Home 14.5 14.3 Campground 31.2 30.4 Vacation Home 16.7 16.3 Day Travel 60.1 59.0 Destination Spending 129.2 123.9 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 10.1 8.5 Food Service 22.5 22.8 Food Stores 12.4 12.1 Local Tran. & Gas 18.9 17.1 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 47.7 45.9 Retail Sales 17.6 17.5 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 129.2 123.9 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 9.8 10.6 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 14.1 13.6 Retail** 4.9 4.2 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.2 0.1 Total Direct Earnings 28.9 28.5 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 520 560 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 480 450 Retail** 210 180 Ground Tran. 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 Other Travel* 10 10 Total Direct Employment 1,230 1,200 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 4.0 4.0 State Tax Receipts 5.5 5.7 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 9.5 9.7 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016p 137.6 4.8 142.4 139.2 4.7 143.9 136.0 4.6 140.6 136.0 3.6 139.6 136.0 3.0 139.0 8.3 16.4 32.5 17.1 63.3 137.6 10.2 16.4 31.9 17.3 63.5 139.2 8.8 15.6 31.4 17.5 62.8 136.0 10.3 15.6 30.6 17.3 62.1 136.0 11.0 15.3 30.4 17.6 62.0 136.3 10.1 25.3 13.2 22.0 48.4 18.5 0.0 137.6 10.8 26.2 13.3 21.5 48.8 18.6 0.0 139.2 10.6 25.9 13.4 20.2 47.8 18.1 0.0 136.0 11.4 27.4 13.8 16.2 48.8 18.4 0.0 136.0 12.0 28.0 14.0 14.0 50.0 18.0 0.0 136.0 12.5 14.4 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 31.3 13.4 14.8 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 32.6 13.3 15.1 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 32.9 13.6 15.5 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 33.9 13.0 16.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 34.0 650 480 180 0 0 10 1,310 700 500 180 0 0 10 1,380 690 510 170 0 0 10 1,380 670 480 180 0 0 10 1,330 670 490 190 0 0 10 1,350 4.4 6.3 10.7 4.3 6.2 10.6 4.2 5.9 10.1 4.4 6.1 10.5 4.0 6.0 10.0 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 50 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Maricopa County Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p 2008 2010 2012 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 8,164 8,106 8,756 Other Travel* 2,571 2,401 2,838 Total Direct Spending 10,734 10,507 11,594 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 4,444 4,269 4,657 Private Home 2,155 2,255 2,381 Campground 240 231 245 Vacation Home 254 257 278 Day Travel 1,069 1,093 1,195 Destination Spending 8,164 8,106 8,756 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 1,638 1,372 1,526 Food Service 1,712 1,829 1,984 Food Stores 268 271 294 Local Tran. & Gas 1,037 1,038 1,204 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 1,074 1,083 1,132 Retail Sales 1,154 1,201 1,262 Visitor Air Tran. 1,281 1,311 1,353 Destination Spending 8,164 8,106 8,756 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 1,195 1,153 1,248 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 505 510 556 Retail** 212 197 206 Ground Tran. 102 109 119 Visitor Air Tran. 543 564 602 Other Travel* 782 740 851 Total Direct Earnings 3,339 3,273 3,582 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 42.0 40.0 41.7 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 16.8 15.7 16.6 Retail** 6.5 5.9 5.9 Ground Tran. 2.8 2.8 3.0 Visitor Air Tran. 7.5 6.8 7.2 Other Travel* 13.7 11.9 13.2 Total Direct Employment 89.2 83.1 87.5 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 455.3 447.4 475.7 State Tax Receipts 401.0 418.1 473.2 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 856.3 865.4 948.9 2013 2014 2015 2016p 9,051 9,585 2,966 3,035 12,017 12,620 10,071 2,925 12,995 10,383 2,873 13,256 4,839 2,451 253 284 1,223 9,051 5,178 2,568 271 294 1,273 9,585 5,575 2,648 267 299 1,281 10,071 5,803 2,699 269 308 1,304 10,383 1,600 2,070 303 1,224 1,156 1,286 1,411 9,051 1,751 2,200 323 1,261 1,203 1,327 1,520 9,585 1,979 2,348 339 1,165 1,252 1,371 1,618 10,071 2,066 2,499 344 1,139 1,305 1,407 1,623 10,383 1,319 585 207 120 602 890 3,723 1,395 637 224 129 610 889 3,884 1,487 666 241 139 684 944 4,162 1,544 701 256 149 693 968 4,311 43.6 17.5 6.1 3.0 7.0 12.9 90.2 45.0 18.7 6.4 3.2 7.3 14.0 94.5 46.5 20.0 6.7 3.3 7.7 14.9 99.2 47.5 20.0 7.1 3.6 7.8 15.3 101.3 494.9 467.3 962.2 515.9 462.7 978.6 564.7 492.1 1,056.8 590.0 507.0 1,097.0 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations, resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 51 Mohave County Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 450.5 460.6 Other Travel* 71.1 69.2 Total Direct Spending 521.6 529.9 All Overnight Hotel, Motel 112.4 119.0 Private Home 153.7 155.7 Campground 21.2 20.5 Vacation Home 38.3 37.8 Day 124.8 127.6 Destination Spending 450.5 460.6 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 57.8 55.3 Food Service 118.5 128.8 Food Stores 42.5 43.1 Local Tran. & Gas 79.5 75.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 82.3 84.3 Retail Sales 69.8 73.6 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 450.5 460.6 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 62.6 62.8 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 40.9 31.8 Retail** 20.0 18.0 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 12.9 12.5 Total Direct Earnings 136.5 125.1 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 3,190 3,220 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 2,030 1,630 Retail** 680 630 Ground Tran. 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 Other Travel* 490 430 Total Direct Employment 6,400 5,900 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 16.8 16.9 State Tax Receipts 21.9 23.2 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 38.7 40.1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016p 473.6 80.4 554.0 497.1 83.3 580.4 494.5 86.3 580.8 483.6 40.7 524.3 490.0 39.0 529.0 120.0 160.8 22.6 40.4 129.8 473.6 124.7 173.5 22.2 40.6 136.1 497.1 132.6 165.5 21.8 41.3 133.2 494.5 137.2 155.2 20.8 41.5 128.9 483.6 144.9 153.8 20.4 42.0 129.3 490.3 56.5 129.4 44.1 89.7 82.0 71.9 0.0 473.6 58.7 138.7 46.7 92.2 85.7 75.1 0.0 497.1 64.0 139.3 46.5 86.8 84.7 73.2 0.0 494.5 69.3 142.4 46.8 67.7 84.8 72.6 0.0 483.6 75.0 149.0 47.0 59.0 87.0 73.0 0.0 490.0 61.3 32.0 17.3 0.0 0.0 13.1 123.8 66.8 34.5 18.0 0.0 0.0 14.6 133.9 71.6 39.0 18.2 0.0 0.0 16.1 144.9 89.8 39.2 18.8 0.0 0.0 3.1 150.9 100.0 41.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 165.0 2,950 1,580 600 0 0 430 5,560 3,110 1,590 620 0 0 430 5,750 3,290 1,750 610 0 0 450 6,100 3,940 1,790 620 0 0 110 6,450 4,220 1,700 640 0 0 150 6,710 16.5 24.3 40.8 17.5 24.4 41.9 18.1 23.7 41.8 19.3 24.1 43.4 21.0 25.0 46.0 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 52 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Navajo County Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 285.6 254.4 Other Travel* 22.9 21.0 Total Direct Spending 308.5 275.4 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 141.3 114.3 Private Home 53.9 52.4 Campground 17.2 16.7 Vacation Home 45.6 45.2 Day Travel 27.7 25.8 Destination Spending 285.6 254.4 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 60.4 50.1 Food Service 69.3 65.5 Food Stores 20.2 19.1 Local Tran. & Gas 39.7 33.9 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 32.0 29.6 Retail Sales 64.0 56.3 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 285.6 254.4 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 48.8 48.0 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 13.3 17.9 Retail** 12.7 10.1 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 1.3 0.8 Total Direct Earnings 76.1 76.9 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 2,330 2,250 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 680 810 Retail** 510 410 Ground Tran. 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 Other Travel* 70 40 Total Direct Employment 3,590 3,520 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 11.3 10.6 State Tax Receipts 13.5 13.2 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 24.9 23.9 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016p 278.5 25.4 303.9 280.8 24.8 305.7 283.0 24.5 307.4 282.7 19.3 302.1 289.0 17.0 306.0 128.1 58.5 16.4 47.4 28.1 278.5 130.4 57.7 16.8 47.9 28.1 280.8 131.3 58.2 16.2 48.9 28.3 283.0 134.1 55.8 16.1 48.9 27.8 282.7 139.0 55.3 16.3 50.0 28.0 288.6 55.0 70.7 20.4 42.7 30.0 59.6 0.0 278.5 56.5 72.2 20.6 41.7 30.2 59.7 0.0 280.8 57.0 74.3 21.2 40.4 30.3 59.7 0.0 283.0 59.5 77.6 21.8 32.3 30.9 60.7 0.0 282.7 63.0 82.0 22.0 28.0 32.0 62.0 0.0 289.0 52.1 21.7 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.8 85.2 53.5 21.8 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 86.5 54.5 22.8 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.8 89.0 58.7 23.3 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.8 94.3 61.0 24.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 98.0 2,300 890 420 0 0 40 3,650 2,330 900 410 0 0 40 3,690 2,350 940 420 0 0 40 3,760 2,420 1,040 440 0 0 40 3,940 2,450 1,040 460 0 0 40 4,000 11.4 14.9 26.3 10.9 14.2 25.0 11.1 13.8 24.9 12.1 14.3 26.3 13.0 15.0 28.0 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 53 Pima County Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p 2008 2010 2012 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 2,043 2,022 2,129 Other Travel* 530 491 635 Total Direct Spending 2,573 2,513 2,764 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 903 895 946 Private Home 451 452 468 Campground 36 29 33 Vacation Home 47 47 50 Day Travel 605 598 633 Destination Spending 2,043 2,022 2,129 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 349 316 330 Food Service 475 508 542 Food Stores 132 129 138 Local Tran. & Gas 279 278 321 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 173 174 178 Retail Sales 411 413 423 Visitor Air Tran. 223 204 198 Destination Spending 2,043 2,022 2,129 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 304 298 334 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 76 77 76 Retail** 79 72 73 Ground Tran. 25 27 29 Visitor Air Tran. 12 11 9 Other Travel* 61 52 84 Total Direct Earnings 557 537 605 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 12,700 12,420 13,330 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 3,860 4,090 4,080 Retail** 2,880 2,560 2,520 Ground Tran. 690 700 740 Visitor Air Tran. 250 210 180 Other Travel* 1,860 1,450 2,110 Total Direct Employment 22,240 21,440 22,950 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 73.0 72.5 75.9 State Tax Receipts 101.5 106.0 118.5 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 174.5 178.5 194.4 2013 2014 2015 2016p 2,140 573 2,713 2,208 576 2,784 2,240 532 2,772 2,183 514 2,697 953 460 32 51 644 2,140 994 474 31 52 657 2,208 1,053 473 30 52 631 2,240 1,033 469 30 53 598 2,183 333 552 140 318 177 428 190 2,140 349 576 146 321 181 433 202 2,208 379 611 146 292 186 423 204 2,240 378 610 139 265 185 402 205 2,184 337 75 73 29 8 65 587 360 85 77 31 10 67 631 393 88 79 33 11 69 674 407 88 78 33 12 74 692 13,340 13,810 4,060 4,350 2,510 2,610 740 750 130 170 1,820 1,750 22,600 23,440 14,290 4,440 2,610 800 170 1,750 24,050 14,630 4,640 2,550 800 180 1,900 24,700 82.4 115.6 198.0 83.0 114.0 197.0 75.1 112.9 187.9 76.9 111.0 187.9 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations, resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 54 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Pinal County Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 456.2 508.7 Other Travel* 70.9 73.3 Total Direct Spending 527.2 582.0 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 37.1 34.7 Private Home 199.9 237.3 Campground 48.2 46.6 Vacation Home 67.4 74.8 Day Travel 103.6 115.4 Destination Spending 456.2 508.7 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 42.3 40.3 Food Service 140.1 166.0 Food Stores 42.3 46.8 Local Tran. & Gas 73.7 75.6 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 66.2 73.7 Retail Sales 91.6 106.2 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 456.2 508.7 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 62.8 72.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 34.0 28.9 Retail** 20.9 21.0 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 4.0 2.7 Total Direct Earnings 121.8 125.1 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 2,980 3,030 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 1,260 1,120 Retail** 810 770 Ground Tran. 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 Other Travel* 200 130 Total Direct Employment 5,260 5,050 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 17.0 19.3 State Tax Receipts 23.3 27.4 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 40.3 46.7 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016p 534.7 90.4 625.1 531.8 89.0 620.7 554.5 89.5 644.0 567.8 72.6 640.4 572.0 64.0 636.0 37.8 243.2 51.4 79.5 122.8 534.7 33.3 245.0 50.5 80.5 122.4 531.8 33.4 260.1 49.6 84.2 127.3 554.5 38.1 269.2 47.3 86.2 127.0 567.8 38.9 270.8 46.3 89.4 126.2 571.6 42.9 171.1 49.0 92.3 73.5 105.9 0.0 534.7 41.7 173.3 49.2 89.4 73.1 105.0 0.0 531.8 43.0 184.7 52.3 89.4 76.3 108.9 0.0 554.5 46.8 199.0 55.2 73.1 79.9 113.8 0.0 567.8 49.0 208.0 55.0 63.0 82.0 115.0 0.0 572.0 79.4 31.0 20.7 0.0 0.0 2.6 133.7 76.8 31.1 20.3 0.0 0.0 2.7 131.0 78.1 33.6 22.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 136.6 84.8 35.4 23.9 0.0 0.0 3.0 147.1 104.0 37.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 169.0 3,310 1,310 760 0 0 120 5,500 3,510 1,270 760 0 0 130 5,660 3,470 1,300 800 0 0 140 5,710 3,650 1,350 870 0 0 140 6,010 4,340 1,470 880 0 0 140 6,840 19.7 29.3 49.0 19.3 28.1 47.3 19.7 27.8 47.6 21.4 29.5 50.8 23.0 30.0 53.0 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 55 Santa Cruz County Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 272.9 253.6 Other Travel* 10.1 9.1 Total Direct Spending 283.0 262.7 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 39.0 36.2 Private Home 33.1 34.9 Campground 1.3 1.2 Vacation Home 1.3 1.3 Day Travel 198.2 180.0 Destination Spending 272.9 253.6 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 16.9 15.5 Food Service 41.1 41.2 Food Stores 92.9 83.8 Local Tran. & Gas 23.2 20.7 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 9.3 9.1 Retail Sales 89.5 83.3 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 272.9 253.6 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 21.1 20.8 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 5.1 4.2 Retail** 27.3 23.6 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.7 0.3 Total Direct Earnings 54.1 48.8 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 1,000 970 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 340 290 Retail** 900 720 Ground Tran. 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 Other Travel* 30 20 Total Direct Employment 2,260 2,000 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 8.4 8.2 State Tax Receipts 10.6 10.5 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 19.1 18.7 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016p 260.0 11.2 271.2 277.7 10.8 288.5 278.2 10.5 288.6 257.5 8.3 265.8 227.0 7.0 234.0 31.0 38.2 1.4 1.3 188.2 260.0 35.1 38.0 1.3 1.3 201.9 277.7 32.6 36.0 1.3 1.3 206.9 278.2 39.2 35.8 1.3 1.3 179.9 257.5 32.8 33.3 1.2 1.3 158.0 226.7 12.8 41.5 88.6 25.0 8.5 83.7 0.0 260.0 14.0 44.8 95.3 25.5 9.0 89.1 0.0 277.7 13.4 44.4 98.9 23.9 8.4 89.1 0.0 278.2 16.4 45.4 88.3 18.6 9.4 79.3 0.0 257.5 14.0 42.0 78.0 14.0 9.0 70.0 0.0 227.0 19.1 4.3 23.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 46.9 19.8 4.4 24.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 48.7 22.3 5.2 25.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 53.3 27.7 5.9 23.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 57.5 25.0 5.0 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.0 900 290 710 0 0 20 1,920 930 330 740 0 0 20 2,020 1,040 390 730 0 0 20 2,180 1,220 440 680 0 0 20 2,360 1,110 400 580 0 0 20 2,110 7.9 11.1 18.9 8.1 11.1 19.1 8.0 10.6 18.6 8.2 10.4 18.5 7.0 9.0 16.0 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 56 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Yavapai County Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 594.6 566.4 Other Travel* 60.0 53.6 Total Direct Spending 654.5 620.0 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 234.4 209.7 Private Home 77.0 78.6 Campground 13.0 12.6 Vacation Home 24.2 23.9 Day Travel 246.0 241.6 Destination Spending 594.6 566.4 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 121.3 104.4 Food Service 113.7 115.8 Food Stores 41.5 40.7 Local Tran. & Gas 73.6 66.6 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 166.3 160.5 Retail Sales 77.8 77.6 Visitor Air Tran. 0.4 0.8 Destination Spending 594.6 566.4 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 83.5 73.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 68.8 67.9 Retail** 19.0 16.4 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.3 0.3 Other Travel* 8.3 6.1 Total Direct Earnings 179.8 164.3 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 3,520 3,040 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 3,840 3,540 Retail** 770 650 Ground Tran. 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 10 10 Other Travel* 310 240 Total Direct Employment 8,450 7,480 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 25.5 24.4 State Tax Receipts 28.0 28.0 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 53.4 52.3 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016p 631.9 62.8 694.7 650.8 64.1 714.9 680.9 65.3 746.2 706.6 41.6 748.2 725.0 38.0 763.0 245.6 87.5 13.8 25.4 259.6 631.9 261.6 87.8 13.5 25.8 262.0 650.8 282.8 89.6 14.7 26.7 267.1 680.9 311.4 87.3 14.6 27.0 266.3 706.6 330.6 86.3 14.8 27.7 266.1 725.5 122.7 127.1 44.4 85.7 168.3 81.8 1.8 631.9 133.3 132.4 45.3 84.9 170.9 83.0 1.0 650.8 147.4 139.9 47.6 84.4 176.0 84.7 0.8 680.9 169.7 149.2 49.6 68.5 182.0 87.0 0.7 706.6 187.0 156.0 49.0 59.0 186.0 87.0 1.0 725.0 85.8 64.4 17.1 0.0 0.4 5.9 173.5 93.1 63.4 17.1 0.0 0.3 6.7 180.5 100.6 67.2 18.2 0.0 0.3 7.4 193.8 114.9 69.7 19.6 0.0 0.5 2.4 207.1 125.0 72.0 20.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 221.0 3,430 3,430 660 0 10 200 7,730 3,590 3,460 660 0 10 190 7,910 3,810 3,790 690 0 10 200 8,500 4,110 3,840 720 0 10 100 8,790 4,370 3,820 730 0 10 110 9,040 26.2 31.6 57.8 28.1 30.9 59.0 30.0 31.1 61.1 33.2 33.1 66.3 35.0 34.0 69.0 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 57 Yuma County Travel Impacts, 2008-2016p 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 569.9 553.0 Other Travel* 54.7 52.6 Total Direct Spending 624.6 605.7 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 140.2 130.3 Private Home 78.6 79.9 Campground 72.5 74.8 Vacation Home 43.7 44.5 Day Travel 234.9 223.5 Destination Spending 569.9 553.0 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 66.8 60.1 Food Service 103.8 107.3 Food Stores 72.9 69.1 Local Tran. & Gas 68.4 63.2 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 121.1 120.9 Retail Sales 124.4 120.1 Visitor Air Tran. 12.4 12.3 Destination Spending 569.9 553.0 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 58.0 62.4 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 50.7 50.0 Retail** 31.4 27.4 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.3 0.7 Other Travel* 3.4 2.8 Total Direct Earnings 143.7 143.2 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 2,790 2,850 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 2,060 2,140 Retail** 1,110 960 Ground Tran. 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 10 10 Other Travel* 130 100 Total Direct Employment 6,110 6,070 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 21.4 21.3 State Tax Receipts 25.6 26.7 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 47.0 47.9 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016p 594.5 62.3 656.7 575.1 60.2 635.3 590.4 60.8 651.2 574.7 48.6 623.3 564.0 42.0 606.0 149.2 87.7 72.9 48.2 236.3 594.5 131.9 86.7 68.0 48.5 240.0 575.1 137.7 90.8 66.9 49.5 245.4 590.4 145.8 88.6 65.3 49.6 225.4 574.7 150.6 87.2 64.9 50.4 211.0 564.1 65.2 116.5 73.5 79.4 124.4 123.7 11.7 594.5 59.0 113.8 75.1 74.2 115.6 124.9 12.5 575.1 62.1 119.2 78.4 73.2 117.6 126.4 13.6 590.4 67.2 122.4 74.3 57.5 120.6 117.6 15.0 574.7 70.0 126.0 70.0 49.0 124.0 111.0 14.0 564.0 63.7 52.0 27.7 0.0 0.3 2.3 145.9 63.7 45.5 27.5 0.0 0.3 2.5 139.4 64.6 48.5 29.1 0.0 0.3 2.6 145.2 68.7 49.9 28.5 0.0 0.4 2.0 149.5 73.0 52.0 28.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 156.0 2,840 2,490 920 0 10 90 6,340 2,850 2,160 900 0 10 90 6,010 2,830 2,190 930 0 10 90 6,050 2,940 2,340 890 0 10 80 6,260 3,060 2,360 850 0 10 80 6,370 21.9 29.1 50.9 20.8 27.0 47.7 21.1 26.3 47.4 21.6 26.5 48.1 22.0 26.0 48.0 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 58 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES APPENDICES APPENDIX A 2016 TRAVEL IMPACT ESTIMATES APPENDIX B KEY TERMS AND DEFINITIONS APPENDIX C REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACT MODEL APPENDIX D TRAVEL INDUSTRY ACCOUNTS APPENDIX E ARIZONA EARNINGS AND EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY SECTOR APPENDIX F INDUSTRY GROUPS DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 59 APPENDIX A 2016 TRAVEL IMPACT ESTIMATES This appendix provides a brief overview of the methodology, terminology and limitations of the travel impact and visitor volume estimates. DIRECT IMPACTS The estimates of the direct impacts associated with traveler spending in Arizona were produced using the Regional Travel Impact Model (RTIM) developed by Dean Runyan Associates. The input data used to detail the economic impacts of the Arizona travel industry were gathered from various local, state and federal sources. Travel impacts consist of estimates of travel spending and the employment, earnings, and state and local taxes generated by this spending. These estimates are also broken out by type of traveler accommodation and by the type of business in which the expenditures occur. GROUND TRANSPORTATION ESTIMATES County and regional level estimates of destination or visitor spending include only a portion of the ground transportation expenditures for travel that occur in the county. The remaining portion is included in “other travel” as it represents transportation costs for travel to another destination within Arizona. State level estimates of visitor spending include all of these expenditures for ground transportation. SECONDARY (INDIRECT AND INDUCED) IMPACTS Direct impacts are reported for all counties within Arizona. Secondary employment and earnings impacts over and above direct impacts are reported at the state level only for the year 2016. These indirect and induced impacts are generated from the direct impacts produced by the RTIM, discussed above, and an input-output model of the Arizona economy prepared by the Implan Group, LLC. Indirect impacts represent the purchases of goods and services from other firms by businesses that directly receive expenditures from travelers. Hotels, for example, purchase maintenance services from independent contractors. Induced impacts represent the purchase of goods and services by employees whose earnings are in part derived from travel expenditures. The sum of the direct, indirect and induced impacts equals the total impact of all spending by visitors in the state. The “multiplier” refers to the ratio of the total impacts to the direct impacts for employment or earnings. A description of the methodology used to estimate secondary impacts can be found in the Appendix. PAGE 60 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES Preliminary estimates for 2016 were prepared at the state, regional and county level. These estimates take advantage of the most current available data. However, because full-year data was not available in all cases, these estimates are subject to subsequent revision as additional information relating to travel and its economic impact in 2016 becomes available. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT An estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Arizona travel industry based on the RTIM direct travel impacts is also provided in this report. The GDP of an industry is equal to gross output (sales or receipts) minus intermediate inputs (the goods and services purchased from other industries). GDP is always less than output or sales because GDP measures only the “value added” of an industry and does not include the cost of the inputs that are also necessary to produce a good or service. GDP is a useful concept because it permits comparisons of the economic contributions of different industries. The relationship between spending and gross domestic product is illustrated in the figure below. Examples of inputs are the food or accounting services that restaurants purchase from suppliers. “Goods resold” are the commodities that retail establishments purchase from manufacturers or wholesale trade businesses and resell with a markup. These inputs or goods are not counted as the GDP of the restaurant or retail industry because their value was created in other industries (agriculture, accounting, manufacturing). Relationship Between Spending and Gross Domestic Product Inputs/Goods Resold Operating Surplus Indirect Taxes Labor Income Spending DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES GDP PAGE 61 It is for this reason that “travel spending” – as measured from surveys of visitors – is not the best measure of the travel industry’s real economic contribution. This is because some visitor spending is actually counted as the GDP of other industries (e.g., agriculture, accounting, manufacturing). Furthermore, these other industries may or may not be located within the geographic area of interest. If the farm were located within the region of interest, then the GDP of the local farm would be included as an indirect or secondary effect. If not (e.g., a manufacturing firm in another state or country), then that portion of GDP is not counted. The preceding graph also shows the three main components of GDP. For most industries, labor income (essentially equivalent to earnings in this report) is the primary component of GDP. This is true of the travel industry. A second component is the tax payments that businesses make to government, such as sales, excise and property taxes. In the case of excise taxes, businesses are essentially a collection agency for the government. The final component, operating surplus, represents the income and payments (e.g., dividends, interest) to other stakeholders of the firm. The concept of GDP also illustrates that with small geographic units of analysis (e.g., counties), earnings, employment, and tax revenues are the best measures of the economic value of the travel industry to the local economy. Small area measures of GDP are less reliable and much of the operating surplus may leak out of the local economy anyway. Indirect effects are also generally less in smaller economies. COMPARISON WITH OTHER EXPORT-ORIENTED INDUSTRIES Export-oriented industries are those industries that primarily market their products and services to other regions, states or nations. Agriculture, extractive industries, and manufacturing are the best examples of goods producing export-oriented industries. Many professional services (e.g., engineering, architecture, law) are also traded in export markets. The travel industry is also an export-oriented industry because goods and services are sold to visitors, rather than residents. The travel industry injects money into the local economy, as do the exports of other industries. Exports are not necessarily more important than locally traded goods and services. However, diverse export-oriented industries in any economy are a source of strength – in part because they generate income that contributes to the development of other local services and amenities. Such industries characterize the “comparative advantage” of the local economy within larger regional, national and global markets. For the purposes of this report, we have defined five major export-oriented industries in Arizona. PAGE 62 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES  Aerospace. This industry comprises establishments engaged in aerospace product and parts manufacturing.  Microelectronics. This industry includes establishments that manufacture computers, communications equipment and similar products and components that utilize integrated circuits. This is the largest manufacturing subsector (NAICS 334).  Food. The food group encompasses parts of two major industry categories: agriculture, and food manufacturing or processing.  Mining. This industry is comprised primarily of copper mining companies.  Travel. A portion of the transportation, retail, leisure, and hospitality industries as estimated in this report. Comparisons with these industries are more meaningful for the travel industry than comparisons with non-export oriented industries (e.g., health care, retail trade, government) where industry growth is largely a function of population and demographic factors. See Appendix C for a list of Arizona industries. INTERPRETATION OF IMPACT ESTIMATES Users of this report should be aware of several issues regarding the interpretation of the impact estimates contained herein:  The estimates contained in this report are based on the most current data available and supersede all previous estimates of travel impacts.  The estimates in this report are expressed in current dollars unless otherwise noted.  The employment estimates in this report are estimates of the total number of full and part-time jobs directly generated by travel spending, rather than the number of individuals employed. Both payroll and self-employment are included in these estimates. Caution should therefore be used in comparing these estimates with other employment data series.  In general, estimates of small geographic areas (e.g., rural counties) are less reliable than estimates for regions or metropolitan counties. Trend analysis and comparisons of counties with relatively low levels of travel related economic activity should therefore be interpreted cautiously.  The estimates of travel impacts published in this report will necessarily differ somewhat from estimates generated from different models, methodologies and data sources. Nonetheless, it should be emphasized that all credible estimates of direct travel impacts at the state level, including those of Dean Runyan Associates, are of similar magnitude. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 63 APPENDIX B KEY TERMS AND DEFINITIONS Commodity: A classification of a product or service, such as lodging or food service. An establishment or industry may produce more than one commodity. Direct Impacts: Employment, earnings and tax receipts directly generated by travel spending, as distinguished from secondary and total impacts. Earnings: Earnings include wage and salary disbursements, other earned income or benefits, and proprietor income. Only the earnings attributable to travel expenditures are included. Employment: Industry employment (jobs) associated with travel-generated earnings. Includes both full-time and part-time positions, and salaried or self-employed individuals. Employment is reported as an average for a time period, typically annual. (Unless otherwise noted, the employment estimates refer to establishment or industry employment at place of work, not the employment status or residence of the individual.) Federal Taxes: Federal taxes include the motor fuel excise tax, airline ticket taxes, and personal income and payroll taxes. Industry: A classification of business or government establishments based on their primary technological process. (See NAICS Appendix table.) Local Taxes: Lodging, sales and auto rental taxes imposed by cities, counties and other regional tax jurisdictions in Arizona. These taxes are levied on sales to visitors and the spending of employees attributable to travel industry earnings. Passenger Facility Charges attributable to visitors (a fee imposed on airline tickets) are included in counties with airports. Property tax payments attributable to travel industry businesses and employees and a portion of tribal contributions from gaming to local governments are also included. Other spending: Other spending includes spending by residents on ground and air transportation for travel to other destinations, spending on travel arrangement services, and convention/ trade shows. Private Home: Unpaid overnight accommodations of friends and relatives. Receipts: Travel expenditures less the sales and excise taxes paid by the consumer. State Taxes: Lodging, sales, motor fuel, and business and personal income taxes imposed by the state of Arizona. These taxes are levied on sales to visitors and the spending of employees attributable to travel industry earnings. A portion of tribal contributions from gaming to state government is also included Total Impacts: The sum of Direct and Secondary impacts. Travel spending: The sum of visitor and other spending related to travel. Visitor spending: All spending on goods & services by visitors at the destination. Also referred to as destination spending. PAGE 64 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES APPENDIX C REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACT MODEL PRIMARY DATA SOURCES Room Demand, Visitor Surveys, Population, Inventory/Use of Campsites & Second Homes, Visitor air arrivals Visitor Volume (Travel Party Days by Type of Accommodation) ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF TRAVEL Accommodation Sales, Visitor Surveys, Airfares Note: Receipts equals Spending less POS Taxes Ratio of Earnings to Receipts for relevant Industry Average Annual Earnings per job for relevant industry DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Visitor Spending Point of Sale Taxes (Type of Accommodation and Type of Commodity) (Sales and Excise Taxes associated with Visitor Spending) Business Receipts (not reported) Business Taxes (Taxes on business income or receipts) Earnings (By Industry) Employment (By Industry) Personal Taxes (Local, state and federal income and payroll taxes) Note: Most estimates of taxes are based on implicit tax rates applied to visitor spending, business receipts, and employee earnings. Lodging tax receipts reflect actual tax collections. PAGE 65 APPENDIX D TRAVEL INDUSTRY ACCOUNTS: A COMPARISON OF THE REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACT MODEL AND TRAVEL & TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNTS An economic account is a method for displaying inter-related information about a set of economic activities. A travel industry account is a method to report different types of related information about the purchase of goods and services by visitors. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which now provides annual and quarterly estimates of travel and tourism at the national level, describes a Travel and Tourism Satellite Account (TTSA) as “present(ing) a rearrangement of information from the National Income and Product Accounts, from the industry accounts, and from other sources so that travel and tourism activities can be analyzed more completely than is possible in the structure of the traditional national economic accounts.”1 Similarly, the RTIM has been developed by Dean Runyan Associates to estimate travel spending, earnings, employment, and tax receipts at the state, county, and regional levels. These initial findings can, in turn, be used as input data for deriving estimates of other economic measures, such as value-added and indirect effects. This appendix provides an overview of the Regional Travel Impact Model (RTIM) and travel and tourism satellite accounts (TTSAs). Although there is no single or absolute form of a TTSA, the one developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will be the basis of the analysis here. The definitions, framework, and estimating methods used for the U.S. BEA TTSA follow, as closely as is practicable, the guidelines for similar travel satellite accounts that were developed by the World Tourism Organization (WTO) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The primary focus is on the direct impacts of visitor spending. Visitors are defined as persons that stay overnight away from home, or travel more than fifty miles oneway on a non-routine trip. Only the expenditures related to specific trips are counted as visitor spending. Other travel related expenditures such as the consumption of durable goods (e.g., recreational vehicles or sporting equipment) or the purchase of vacation homes are not considered. While such a definition of the travel industry (i.e., the trip related expenditures of visitors) is conservative, it is also in keeping with the notion of the travel industry as being an export-oriented industry for specific local communities. That is, visitors are important to regions because they inject money into the local economy. This focus on the export-oriented nature of the travel industry for local communities becomes blurred if the industry is defined so as to include non-trip related expenditures. 1 Peter D. Kuhbach, Mark A. Planting, and Erich H. Strassner, “U.S. Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts for 1998-2003,” Survey of Current Business 84 (September 2004): 43-59. PAGE 66 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PRIMARY CONCEPTS, CATEGORIES & DATA REQUIREMENTS There are three primary types of information that are measured and/or estimated in a travel industry account. The first is a measure of the travel industry in terms of both the characteristics of the business firms that sell travel goods and services and the characteristics of consumers that purchase travel industry goods and services. The second is a measure of the demand segments that consume travel industry goods and services. For example, the distinction between business and leisure travel is a measure of demand segments. The third is a measure of the components of economic output associated with the travel industry. The employee earnings generated by visitor spending is one such component. Travel-generated tax receipts are another. These three categories of information represent different aspects of the accounting ledger – they represent different ways of viewing or analyzing the travel industry. The bulk of this paper will discuss these three types of information in terms of their conceptual foundations, the data requirements, and some of the more salient issues that users of this information should be aware of. There will also be some discussion of indirect and induced effects in that these effects can be reasonably estimated from the direct travel industry accounts. These secondary (versus direct) effects describe the relationship of the travel industry to other sectors of the larger economy. The intent of this discussion will be to provide a general overview of the process of constructing travel industry accounts and the underlying similarity between the RTIM and a TTSA. More technical issues are generally placed in footnotes. TRAVEL INDUSTRY Defining the travel industry is probably the most critical and data intensive effort involved in developing a travel industry account. It is an exercise in matching supply (sellers of goods and services) with demand (the travelers that purchase those particular goods and services). It is complicated by the fact that no single industrial classification scheme provides a valid measure of the travel industry.2 There are only three significant industrial classifications (Accommodations [NAICS 721], Scheduled Passenger Air Transportation [NAICS 481111] and Travel Arrangement and Reservation Services [NAICS 5615]) that primarily sell travel industry goods and services.3 Firms in other industries (retail, recreation, transportation) provide goods and services to both travelers and other types of consumers. Because of this, most satellite accounts, as well as the RTIM, incorporate at least some information about the expenditures of visitors in order to define the supply of 2 The North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) is the current standard in the United States. 3 Even these industries are not purely travel. For example, the accommodations industry provides services to local residents (food service and meeting rooms). Passenger airlines also ship cargo on the same planes that carry passengers. Fortunately, it is usually possible to make adjustments for these non-travel components through the use of additional data. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 67 visitor industry firms. For example, if there is an estimate of visitor-days and an estimate of how much the average visitor spends on food services per day, then an estimate of visitor spending on food services can be calculated. In most cases, this will be only a fraction of all food service sales in that residents are a larger market for most restaurants.4 The industry sectors that are usually matched to visitor spending in this way are: accommodations (NAICS 721), food service (722), arts, entertainment and recreation (71), and retail trade (44-45). A portion of transportation business is also part of the travel industry for obvious reasons. In the case of the transportation sector, the definition and measurement of the travel industry component is more complicated because most transportation spending by visitors involves travel to and from the destination, rather than travel at or within the destination market. This is not an issue if the geographic scope of the travel industry market includes the origin and destination of travel. National travel industry accounts thus include all domestic passenger air transportation in the travel industry. The issue is more complicated at the state or regional level, however. Suppose, for example, that the focus of a travel industry account is the state of Arizona. How should the purchase of a round trip airline ticket by a Chicago resident traveling to Phoenix be treated in that only some of the economic impact of this spending will occur in Arizona? A reasonable approach would be to allocate only a portion of this spending (and related payroll, taxes, etc.) to Arizona and ignore the remainder for the purpose of creating a travel industry account for Arizona. However, if this procedure were followed for every state, the sum of the state accounts would be less than the national travel account. The state accounts would be additive if outbound air travel from each state were included. However, this is methodologically inconsistent with the construction of a national account, which does not include outbound travel as a component of domestic tourism demand. The approach used in the RTIM is to make a distinction between the visitor industry, that includes only visitor demand, and the travel industry, which includes visitor demand and that portion of outbound travel that can be attributed to the resident economy. For example, the passenger air transportation employment in Arizona can be divided between three groups of travelers: inbound, outbound, and pass-through. Only that employment attributable to inbound travel is part of the Arizona visitor industry. Employment attributable to outbound and pass-through travelers is included with the larger travel industry.5 4 The proportion can vary enormously among regions and localities, however. In many popular visitor destinations, the primary market for food service will be visitors. It should also be noted that even with reliable visitor survey data, there is still the issue of how to translate spending on food service commodities to the supply of food service by industry. As indicated in the footnote above, food service is also supplied by the accommodation industry. 5 The same issue arises with travel agencies and reservation services (NAICS 5615). Most of these services are probably related to outbound travel and are treated as such in the RTIM. PAGE 68 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES The following two tables display the specific industries that are included in the travel industry for the BEA’s national TTSA and the RTIM. Although not identical, the industries are equivalent with only a few exceptions.6 Bureau of Economic Analysis Tourism Industries Distribution of Travel-Generated Compensation in United States, 2007 Accommodation & Food Services Traveler accommodations Food services and drinking places 38.1% 21.5% 16.6% Transportation Air transportation Rail transportation Water transportation Interurban bus transportation Interurban charter bus transportation Urban transit systems & other tran. Taxi service Automotive equipment rental & leasing Automotive repair services Parking lots and garages Toll highways 23.3% 15.4% 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 2.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% Recreation Scenic and sightseeing transportation Motion pictures and performing arts Spectator sports Participant sports Gambling All other recreation and entertainment 11.2% 0.4% 1.1% 2.3% 2.4% 3.0% 2.0% Retail & Nondurable Goods Production Petroleum refineries Industries producing nondurable PCE commodities, excluding petroleum refineries Wholesale trade & tran. services Gasoline service stations Retail trade services, excluding gasoline service stations 16.2% 0.6% 4.4% 4.2% 1.3% 5.8% Travel Arrangement 7.3% All other industries 2.2% Total Tourism Compensation 100.0% Source: Adapted from Eric S. Griffith and Steven L. Zemanek, “U.S. Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts for 2005-2008,” Survey of Current Business (June 2009): 37, table 6. 6 The major exception is that the BEA includes the production of consumer non-durables that are sold through retail outlets. This is not a major component and would be even less so at the level of the state. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 69 RTIM Travel Impact Industries Matched to NAICS Travel Impact Industry NAICS Industry (code) Accommodation & Food Services Accommodation (721) Food Services and Drinking Places (722) Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Performing Arts, Spectator Sports (711) Museums (712) Amusement, Gambling (713) Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation (487) Retail Food & Beverage Stores (445) Gasoline Stations (447) Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (448) Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores (451) General Merchandise Stores (452) Miscellaneous Store Retailers (453) Ground Transportation Interurban and rural bus transportation (4852) Taxi and Limousine Service (4853) Charter Bus Industry (4855) Passenger Car Rental (532111) Parking Lots and Garages (812930) Air Transportation Scheduled Air Passenger Transportation (481111) Support Activities for Air Transportation (4881) Administrative/Support Services Travel Arrangement and Reservation Services (5615) Convention and Trade Show Organizers (56192) Source: Dean Runyan Associates PAGE 70 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES DEMAND SEGMENTS The distinction between inbound and outbound travel has already been discussed in the previous section and in terms of the concepts of the visitor industry and the travel industry. Three other types of demand segments that are related exclusively to the visitor industry will be discussed here. The first two demand categories are reported by the BEA in their national TTSA. They are: leisure versus business travel, and resident versus non-resident travel. The third demand category is typically reported in the RTIM: type of traveler accommodation. These three demand categories will be discussed in turn. The distinction between leisure versus business travel is useful for several reasons. Economists like to distinguish between personal consumption expenditures on the one hand and business expenditures on the other. Indeed, this distinction is central for the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). Those in the travel industry are more likely to be interested in this distinction because leisure travelers represent a more “marketable” segment because their travel choices are less determined by economic and business factors. Futhermore, business and leisure travelers tend to have different spending profiles. The availability of this information in either a state or regional TTSA or RTIM is essentially dependent on the availability of survey data (as it is at the national level). It should be noted, however, that such estimates are considerably less reliable for smaller geographic areas because of the limitations of survey data. Even at the state level, year-to-year changes in the composition of this demand segment should be interpreted in conjunction with other data. The distinction between resident versus non-resident travel is fundamental to a national TTSA because it mirrors the distinction between the domestic economy and international transactions. Non-resident travel in the United States is considered an export in the official international transaction accounts.7 The distinction is obviously also important because it is based on different political, legal, and currency regimes – factors that in themselves influence travel behavior. At the level of the state or region, the distinction between resident and nonresident travel is less important, although it is often reported.8 There are at least two reasons why this distinction is less useful at state and regional levels. First, there is considerably less of an economic rationale for distinguishing resident and non-resident travel at the level of the state, or any other political jurisdiction within the United States, than there is at the national level. States do not maintain interstate trade balance sheets that chart the flow of goods and services across state boundaries. From an economic point of view, the administration of the tax system is the primary, if only, reason for this distinction. In the case of travel and tourism, 7 Conversely, the spending of U.S. visitors in other countries is treated as an import in the international transaction accounts. 8 The issues discussed with regard to the reliability of survey data for leisure versus business travel also applies to this category DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 71 the evaluation of the tax impacts of resident versus nonresident travel might also be important.9 Second, travel is behaviorally defined by length of distance from home (usually at least 50 miles one-way), trip purpose (non-routine), and/or the use of an overnight accommodation away from home. Rarely is domestic travel defined by virtue of crossing a geographic boundary.10 The operators of tourist attractions in local communities are generally less interested in the origin of visitors than in the revenue that they generate for their businesses. In terms of the economic impacts at the local level, the distinction between in-state residents, out-of-state residents and international visitors may not be relevant other than for the purpose of marketing. However, other geographic characteristics of the visitor (e.g., distance traveled, the specific area of origin) are generally more useful measures of the visitor market than whether the visitor is a resident or nonresident. Finally, the distinction among different types of traveler accommodations is generally reported in the RTIM. Typically, these categories are:  Visitors who stay in hotels, motels, B&Bs., and similar lodging facilities  Visitors who stay at campsites  Visitors who stay in the private homes of friends or relatives  Visitors who stay in vacation or second homes  Visitors who do not stay in overnight accommodations on their trip away from home (day visitors). These distinctions can be useful because estimates of economic impacts are often used for different purposes. The total of all accommodation types, of course, is an estimate of the total magnitude of the visitor industry. Visitors who stay in commercial lodging such as hotels and motels are most likely to have the greatest economic impact on a person-day basis. These visitors are also more likely to be influenced by marketing efforts. In urban areas, a large proportion will represent business travel. In other words, the type of accommodation category can be used in conjunction with other types of data to analyze the market characteristics of visitors. 9 Nonresident visitors who pay taxes in their destination state represent an unambiguous gain for the state. This effect is less clear for resident travelers within the state. 10 In essence, state level travel impact estimates really represent an aggregation of smaller geographic units, such as counties or regions. Populous states with large landmasses (e.g., California or Texas) will have a higher proportion of resident travel than small states (e.g., Rhode Island or Delaware). PAGE 72 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES COMPONENTS OF INDUSTRY OUTPUT Because both the RTIM and the TTSA are empirically linked to NAICS industry accounts, it is possible to provide estimates of different components of economic output. The major economic components most often estimated are:11  Travel spending (Gross Output)  Value-added (Gross Product)  Earnings (labor income)  Indirect business taxes (sales, excise, property taxes & fees). The relationship of these components is shown below. As indicated, the valueadded of a particular industry (the bar on the right) is equal to gross output (travel spending) minus the intermediate inputs used by travel industry businesses to produce the good or service. Restaurants, for example, prepare and serve the food products that are purchased from suppliers. Airlines purchase or lease airplanes from other firms. These intermediate inputs are not counted as part of the valueadded of the travel industry. They are counted as value-added in other industries (e.g., agriculture, aerospace manufacturing). Components of Industry Output Inputs/Goods Resold Operating Surplus Indirect Taxes Labor Income Output (Spending) Value-Added The distinction between gross output and value-added is probably even more important at the state or regional level. This is because the intermediate inputs that are purchased from other industries are even more likely to be purchased from businesses located in different regions or states. For example, the economic impact 11 There are some small differences between the BEA TTSA and the RTIM in what these components include. The BEA allocates proprietor income to Operating Surplus, the RTIM allocates it to Labor Income. The RTIM does not have an estimate of property taxes in indirect taxes. Overall, property taxes on businesses are a relatively small proportion of indirect taxes. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 73 of air passenger travel in the state of Hawaii should not include the purchase of airplanes manufactured in other parts of the world. Travel industry value-added is a more meaningful measure of the true economic impact of visitor spending in Hawaii because a portion of the economic impact of visitor spending in the state will actually occur elsewhere.12 Value-added can also be viewed in terms of the distribution or payout of industry receipts, exclusive of those paid to other firms for intermediate inputs. Some of the receipts are distributed to labor as wages, benefits, and proprietor income. Some receipts are paid to government as indirect taxes. These taxes are called “indirect” because most of them are actually paid by consumers in the form of sales or excise taxes.13 The remainder leaves gross operating surplus. Out of gross operating surplus various payments are made in the form of dividends, interest, and other payments, or retained by the firm. The sum of these three broad categories of payments is equal to travel industry value-added. To summarize: Value-added = Spending less intermediate goods & services, or Value-added = Labor Income plus indirect business taxes plus gross operating surplus. The RTIM is similar to the TTSA in that it also provides estimates of these components of economic output. Travel spending, earnings, and tax impacts are generally provided at the state or regional level. Value-added is generally reported at the state-level only (sometimes referred to as Travel Industry Gross State Product). At the level of the state, travel industry value-added or GSP is an important measure – more economically meaningful than travel spending.14 For smaller geographic areas, however, the rationale for reporting value-added is less clear. First, there are real data limitations and data costs in deriving these estimates. Second, the most important components of value added for the travel industry are earnings and tax receipts. Because the travel industry is relatively labor intensive and because a large proportion of travel industry goods and services are subject to excise and sales taxes, these two components of value-added (labor income and indirect taxes) are relatively high for the travel industry. The local effects of gross operating surplus are generally less important and certainly much more difficult to assess than are earnings and tax impacts. The relevance of earnings and tax receipts is also in keeping the export-oriented emphasis of the travel industry: earnings and tax receipts are more likely to stay in the local economy than is operating surplus. 12 It should also be noted the value of the intermediate inputs used by travel industry firms will not necessarily disappear if the travel industry stops buying them. Aerospace firms will shift their production to other users (e.g., military). Agriculture will seek new markets for their products. 13 Other taxes included here are property taxes, business franchise taxes, and other fees. Income taxes are not included, because they are paid out of operating surplus. 14 It is also possible to compare different industries with respect to their value-added. It is more difficult and less useful to compare industries on the basis of sales. PAGE 74 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES INDIRECT, INDUCED AND SECONDARY EFFECTS To this point, the discussion of travel industry accounts has referred only to the direct output components. That is, the ripple effects of the re-spending of travel industry receipts throughout the larger economy have not been analyzed. The structure of both the TTSA and the RTIM permit such analysis.  Indirect effects refer to the intermediate inputs used to produce the final product or service, providing that those inputs are themselves produced within the designated geographic area.  Induced effects refer to the purchase of goods and services by employees that are attributable to direct and indirect impacts. These induced impacts are derived from economic data that describe the purchasing patterns of households. For example, employees of all the designated export-oriented industries will spend their income on food, household durables, health care, and so on.  The sum of indirect and induced impacts is sometimes referred to as the secondary effect. These secondary impacts may be as great or greater than the direct impact alone.  The ratio of the total effects (direct plus either indirect, induced, or secondary) to the direct effects is the multiplier. The BEA reports the indirect components of economic output. This is equivalent to domestic travel spending less the goods and services imported from abroad to meet domestic demand. For travel, these imports would include souvenirs manufactured in China and petroleum extracted in Saudi Arabia. The indirect output multiplier for 2002 was 1.76. The ratio of domestic travel spending to travel industry value-added was 1.88. The difference reflects the intermediate inputs for travel imported from abroad. At the state level, these indirect output multipliers are typically lower because relatively more of the intermediate inputs are purchased from outside of the state. At the county or metropolitan level, the multipliers are generally even lower for the same reason. Furthermore, the estimates are usually less reliable because of the data limitations of the regional input-output model used to estimate the indirect effects. The BEA does not report induced effects – the effect of household spending of the direct and indirect labor income. Typically, these induced effects will be larger than the indirect effects at the state or regional level, in part because they are based on both the direct and indirect components.15 As with indirect effects, the induced effects will also tend to be lower for smaller economic areas and the reliability of the estimates will be less. 15 The induced effects can be estimated with the Implan model maintained by the Minnesota Implan Group. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 75 Secondary effects should be interpreted cautiously. These effects describe the relationship of economic transactions at a point in time. These relationships will not necessarily remain constant with a change in direct economic output. This is because all economic resources have alternative uses. Because of this, it is often difficult to determine the effect of an increase or decrease in visitor spending on the larger economic system over time. THE REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACT MODEL AND TRAVEL & TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNTS COMPARED This appendix has provided an overview of Dean Runyan Associates RTIM and the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ domestic TTSA. These travel industry accounts are similar in terms of how they define the travel industry and the measures of the industry that are reported. The differences stem largely from their different levels of analysis – the BEA provides estimates at the national level only, while the RTIM’s are typically constructed on a state or regional level. Because of this geographic focus, the RTIM provides a distinction between the visitor industry and the travel industry. The RTIM also provides measures of all of the components of economic output and secondary effects at the state or large region level. At smaller units of analysis, however, the emphasis is on earnings and tax receipts generated by travel spending as these are the most reliable and meaningful measures of the economic impact of travel at the local level. PAGE 76 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES APPENDIX E Arizona Earnings and Employment by Industry Sector, 2015 Earnings Industry Sector Primarily Export-Oriented Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and related Mining Manufacturing **Travel Primarily Non Export-Oriented Construction Utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Real estate and rental and leasing Management of companies and enterprises Administrative and waste services Other services, except public administration Government and government enterprises Mixed Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Professional and technical services Educational services Health care and social assistance Leisure and Hospitality Arizona Total** ($Billion) 17.7 1.8 1.5 14.3 6.2 Percent Employment of Total (Thousand) 9.8% 1.0% 0.9% 7.9% Percent of Total 3.4% 242 48 22 172 180 6.8% 1.4% 0.6% 4.8% 5.1% 90.9 9.5 1.6 9.1 13.9 4.9 3.3 11.4 6.7 30.6 50.3% 5.2% 0.9% 5.0% 7.7% 2.7% 1.8% 6.3% 3.7% 16.9% 1,868 180 13 113 391 207 37 296 187 444 52.7% 5.1% 0.4% 3.2% 11.0% 5.8% 1.0% 8.4% 5.3% 12.5% 72.2 5.8 4.2 13.2 14.3 3.1 22.4 9.2 180.7 39.9% 3.2% 2.3% 7.3% 7.9% 1.7% 12.4% 5.1% 100.0% 1,433 109 58 221 222 79 388 356 3,543 40.4% 3.1% 1.6% 6.2% 6.3% 2.2% 10.9% 10.1% 100.0% **Travel is not included in the sub and grand totals because it is also represented in other sectors (primarily leisure and hospitality, transporation, and retail trade). DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 77 APPENDIX F Industry Groups Accomm. & Food Serv. Eating & Drinking Hotels and Lodging Places Agric. & Food Proc. Agricultural- Forestry- Fishery Services Animal and Marine Fats and Oils Blended and Prepared Flour Bottled and Canned Soft Drinks & Water Bread- Cake- and Related Products Canned and Cured Sea Foods Canned Fruits and Vegetables Canned Specialties Cattle Feedlots Cereal Preparations Cheese- Natural and Processed Chewing and Smoking Tobacco Chewing Gum Chocolate and Cocoa Products Cigarettes Cigars Commercial Fishing Condensed and Evaporated Milk Confectionery Products Cookies and Crackers Cotton Cottonseed Oil Mills Creamery Butter Dairy Farm Products Dehydrated Food Products Distilled Liquor- Except Brandy Dog- Cat- and Other Pet Food Feed Grains Flavoring Extracts and Syrups- N.E.C. Flour and Other Grain Mill Products Fluid Milk Food Grains Food Preparations- N.E.C Forest Products Forestry Products Frozen Fruits- Juices and Vegetables Frozen Specialties Fruits Grass Seeds PAGE 78 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Agric. & Food Proc. Greenhouse and Nursery Products Hay and Pasture Hogs- Pigs and Swine Ice Cream and Frozen Desserts Landscape and Horticultural Services Macaroni and Spaghetti Malt Malt Beverages Manufactured Ice Meat Packing Plants Miscellaneous Crops Miscellaneous Livestock Oil Bearing Crops Other Meat Animal Products Pickles- Sauces- and Salad Dressings Potato Chips & Similar Snacks Poultry and Eggs Poultry Processing Prepared Feeds- N.E.C Prepared Fresh Or Frozen Fish Or Seafood Ranch Fed Cattle Range Fed Cattle Rice Milling Roasted Coffee Salted and Roasted Nuts & Seeds Sausages and Other Prepared Meats Sheep- Lambs and Goats Shortening and Cooking Oils Soybean Oil Mills Sugar Sugar Crops Tobacco Tobacco Stemming and Redrying Tree Nuts Vegetable Oil Mills- N.E.C Vegetables Wet Corn Milling Wines- Brandy- and Brandy Spirits Arts, Entertain., Rec. Amusement and Recreation Services- N.E.C. Bowling Alleys and Pool Halls Commercial Sports Except Racing Membership Sports and Recreation Clubs Motion Pictures Other Nonprofit Organizations Racing and Track Operation Theatrical Producers- Bands Etc. Water Transportation DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 79 Construction Maintenance and Repair Oil and Gas Wells Maintenance and Repair Other Facilities Maintenance and Repair- Residential New Farm Structures New Government Facilities New Highways and Streets New Industrial and Commercial Buildings New Mineral Extraction Facilities New Residential Structures New Utility Structures Finance, Real Estate Banking Credit Agencies Insurance Agents and Brokers Insurance Carriers Owner-occupied Dwellings Real Estate Security and Commodity Brokers Government Commodity Credit Corporation Federal Electric Utilities Federal Government - Military Federal Government - Non-Military Local Government Passenger Transit Other Federal Government Enterprises Other State and Local Govt Enterprises State & Local Government - Education State & Local Government - Non-Education State and Local Electric Utilities U.S. Postal Service Misc. Manf. Includes all utilities, mining and manfacturing industries not elsewhere classified Misc. Services Advertising Beauty and Barber Shops Computer and Data Processing Services Detective and Protective Services Domestic Services Electrical Repair Service Equipment Rental and Leasing Funeral Service and Crematories Laundry- Cleaning and Shoe Repair Miscellaneous Personal Services Miscellaneous Repair Shops Other Business Services Personnel Supply Services Photofinishing- Commercial Photography Portrait and Photographic Studios Services To Buildings Watch- Clock- Jewelry and Furniture Repair PAGE 80 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Prof. Services Accounting- Auditing and Bookkeeping Business Associations Child Day Care Services Colleges- Universities- Schools Doctors and Dentists Elementary and Secondary Schools Engineering- Architectural Services Hospitals Job Trainings & Related Services Labor and Civic Organizations Legal Services Management and Consulting Services Nursing and Protective Care Other Educational Services Other Medical and Health Services Religious Organizations Research- Development & Testing Services Residential Care Social Services- N.E.C. Retail Trade Apparel & Accessory Stores Building Materials & Gardening Food Stores Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Retail Wholesale Trade Transportation Air Transportation Arrangement Of Passenger Transportation Automobile Parking and Car Wash Automobile Rental and Leasing Automobile Repair and Services Automotive Dealers & Service Stations Local- Interurban Passenger Transit Motor Freight Transport and Warehousing Railroads and Related Services Transportation Services DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 81