Arizona Travel Impacts 1998-2014p Photo courtesy of Arizona Office of Tourism June 2015 Prepared for the Arizona Office of Tourism Phoenix, Arizona ARIZONA TRAVEL IMPACTS 1998-2014P Arizona Office of Tourism Primary Research Conducted By: Dean Runyan Associates Portland, Oregon June 2015 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report describes the economic impacts of travel to and through Arizona and the state’s fifteen counties. The estimates of the direct impacts associated with traveler spending in Arizona were produced using the Regional Travel Impact Model (RTIM) developed by Dean Runyan Associates. The estimates for Arizona are generally comparable to the U.S. Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The estimates of spending, earnings, employment and tax receipts are also used as input data to derive estimates of other economic measures, including gross domestic product (GDP) and secondary effects of the travel industry. ANOTHER YEAR OF MODERATE EXPANSION FOR THE ARIZONA TRAVEL INDUSTRY The Arizona travel industry had its strongest year of growth in 2014 in almost a decade. All measures of the industry – spending, employment and visitation were up sharply in 2014. The only decline was in state tax revenue, due to the expiration of the temporary 1 percent tax on May 31, 2013 1 2  Spending. Total direct travel spending in Arizona was $20.9 billion in 2014. This represents a 5.4 percent increase over the preceding year in current dollars. In real dollars (adjusted for inflation) Arizona travel spending increased by 4.9 percent. These spending increases are the strongest since the period immediately preceding the 2008-09 recession.  Travel Activity. Visitor air travel on domestic flights to Arizona destinations increased by 3.9 percent in 2014 – also the strongest growth since the years before the recession.1 Room demand increased by 4.5 percent for the year.2  Employment. Direct travel-generated employment was 171,500 in 2014. This represents an addition of 6,200 jobs, an increase of 3.8 percent. Jobs were added in all major sectors of the travel industry.  Secondary Impacts. The re-spending of travel-related revenues by businesses and employees creates secondary impacts. In 2014, the secondary impacts were 147,000 jobs with $6.2 billion in earnings.  GDP. The Gross Domestic Product of the travel industry was $8.3 billion in 2014. The travel industry and the microelectronics industry have been the top two export-oriented industries in the state in recent years. U.S. Department of Transportation Origin and Destination Survey. STR, Inc. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES THE ARIZONA TRAVEL INDUSTRY IS A LEADING EXPORT-ORIENTED INDUSTRY Travel and tourism is one of the most important “export-oriented” industries in Arizona. Spending by visitors generates sales in lodging, food services, recreation, transportation and retail businesses – the “travel industry.” These sales support jobs for Arizona residents and contribute tax revenue to local and state governments. Travel is especially important in the non-metropolitan areas of the state, where manufacturing and traded services are less prevalent. Selected Arizona Export-Oriented Industries, 2014 Travel $5.9 Micro-Electronics $4.6 Aerospace $3.2 Agric./Food Proc. $1.7 Mining $1.3 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 Earnings in Billions Note: Preliminary 2014 estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Agriculture includes food and beverage processing industries. THE TRAVEL INDUSTRY GENERATES TAX BENEFITS FOR ARIZONA RESIDENTS In 2014, the travel industry generated $1,150 in local, state and federal tax receipts for each Arizona household.  In 2014, more than seven percent of all local and state tax revenues were generated by the travel industry.  The tax revenue impacts of the Arizona travel industry are relatively more important in non-urban counties (see graph). State Transaction Privilege Taxes Generated By Direct Travel Spending, 2014 FY Maricopa & Pima All Other Counties 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES ARIZONA TRAVEL IMPACTS, 1998-2014P I. U.S. Travel II. Arizona Travel Summary of Arizona Travel Travel Trends Seasonal and Regional Travel Impacts Visitor Origin Arizona Travel Industry Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product of Arizona Export-Oriented Industries Direct, Secondary & Total Impacts III. State and Local Government Revenue Industry Gross Domestic Product and Taxes Arizona Tax Structure Travel Industry Tax Revenue Summary IV. Regional Travel Impacts V. County Travel Impacts Appendices A. B. C. D. E. F 2014 Travel Impact Estimates Key Terms and Definitions Regional Travel Impact Model Travel Industry Accounts Arizona Earnings and Employment by Industry Sector Secondary Impacts Industry Groups DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES page 1 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 13 18 18 19 20 21 23 31 53 54 58 59 60 71 72 PAGE I List of Tables and Figures page I. US Travel Annual Direct Travel Spending in U.S., 2000-2014p Spending by Foreign and Resident Travelers in U.S. Foreign Share of U.S. Internal Travel Overseas Arrivals Relative Value of Selected Foreign Currencies compared to U.S. Dollar U.S. Travel Industry Employment Components of U.S. Travel Industry Employment 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 II. Arizona Travel Arizona Travel Trends, 1998-2014p Arizona Direct Travel Spending, Real and Current Dollars Air Passenger Visitor Arrivals to Arizona, US Air Carriers, 2000-2014 Arizona Lodging Sales, 2000-2014 Regional Shares of Arizona Taxable Lodging Sales, 2014 Taxable Lodging Sales by Region and Quarter, 2014 Arizona Taxable Lodging Sales by Quarter, 2008-2014 Arizona Visitor Spending by Origin of Visitor, 2014p International Visitor Spending in Arizona, 2000-2014p Arizona Travel Industry Gross Domestic Product, 2014p Arizona Gross Domestic Product, 2014 (Selected Export-Oriented Industries) Total Employment and Earnings Generated by Travel Spending in Arizona, 2014p Direct & Secondary Employment Generated by Travel Spending, 2014p (graph) Direct & Secondary Earnings Generated by Travel Spending, 2014p (graph) Direct & Secondary Employment Generated by Travel Spending, 2014p (table) Direct & Secondary Earnings Generated by Travel Spending, 2014p (table) Arizona Travel Impacts, 2006-2014p (detail) III. State and Local Government Revenue 18 Production & Import Taxes as a Percent of Gross Domestic Product Arizona State & Local Government Tax Revenues, 2013-14 FY Arizona Travel Industry State & Local Government Tax Revenues, 2013-14 FY Arizona State & Local Tax Revenues, 2013-14 FY (table) State Transaction Privilege Taxes Generated by Travel Spending, 2013 FY (graph) State Transaction Privilege Taxes Generated by Travel Spending, 2013 FY (table) State and Local Travel-Generated Tax Revenue per Household IV. Regional Travel Impacts Regional Impact Summary Tables Regional Impact Detail Tables, 2006-2014p IV. County Travel Impacts 18 19 20 21 21 22 22 23 24-25 26 31 Distribution of Travel-Generated Employment, 2014p Percent of Total Area Employment that is Travel-Generated, 2014p Travel-Generated Employment and Earnings Shares by County, 2014p County Impact Summary Tables County Impact Detail Tables, 2006-2014p PAGE II 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 15 15 16 16 17 32 33 34 35-39 39-52 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PREFACE The purpose of this study is to document the economic significance of the travel industry in Arizona from 1998 to 2014. These findings show the level of travel spending by visitors traveling to and within the state, and the impact this spending had on the economy in terms of earnings, employment and tax revenue. Dean Runyan Associates prepared this study for the Arizona Office of Tourism. Dean Runyan Associates has specialized in research and planning services for the travel, tourism and recreation industry since 1984. With respect to economic impact analysis, the firm developed and currently maintains the Regional Travel Impact Model (RTIM), a proprietary computer model for analyzing travel economic impacts at the state, regional and local level. Dean Runyan Associates also has extensive experience in project feasibility analysis, market evaluation, survey research and travel and tourism planning. Many individuals and organizations provided data and assistance for this report. State agencies include the Department of Revenue, Department of Commerce, Gaming Commission and State Parks. Information was also provided by the College of Business and Public Administration at the University of Arizona and the School of Hotel and Restaurant Management at Northern Arizona University. Federal agencies that provided essential data for this report include the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, the U.S. Forest Service, and the National Park Service. Special thanks are due to Melissa Elkins, Research Manager for the Arizona Office of Tourism. Without her support and assistance, this report would not have been possible. Dean Runyan Associates 833 SW 11th Ave., Suite 920 Portland, OR 97205 (503) 226-2973 info@deanrunyan.com www.deanrunyan.com DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE III This page intentionally blank I. U.S. TRAVEL DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 1 The national level data in this section focuses on visitor spending trends in current and real dollars, resident and foreign visitor spending in the U.S., and trends in travel-generated employment. The following two graphs are derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts.1 Both graphs show direct tourism output for the United States – spending by resident and foreign visitors. Annual Direct Travel Spending in U.S., 2000-14p $1,000 Output (Billions) $900 Real $800 $700 Current $600 $500 $400 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14p Spending by Foreign* and Resident Travelers in U.S. (Current Dollars; Year 2000=100) Output (Year 2000 = 100) 180 Foreign 160 140 Resident 120 100 80 60 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14p *Note: Foreign visitor spending does not include expenditures on health and educational services or expenditures by short term seasonal workers. 1 Spending by resident and foreign visitors was $894 billion in 2014 in current dollars. This represents a 4.5 percent increase over 2013. When adjusted for changes in prices (real dollars), spending increased by 2.5 percent from 2013 to 2014 – compared to a 3.6 percent increase from 2012 to 2013. The bottom chart compares the change in current dollar spending by resident and foreign visitors since 2000. In 2014, the increase in spending by resident visitors (5.1 percent) exceeded the increase in foreign visitor spending (1.0 percent). This is the first time that resident spending growth was greater than foreign since the 2008-09 recesssion. See http://www.bea.gov/industry/index.htm#satellite. PAGE 2 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES The top left chart shows that the foreign share of U.S. internal travel declined in 2014 because of the lower rate of growth of foreign visitor spending (shown in preceding chart).2 However, as the graph on the right indicates, overseas arrivals to the U.S. (34.4 million in 2014) continued to increase – 7.4 percent in 2014, following a 7.6 percent increase in 2013. Rather, much of the explanation for the declining foreign share of internal travel in the U.S. is due to the increasing value of U.S. currency (see bottom left chart). As the value of foreign currencies fall relative to the U.S. dollar, foreign visitors have less money to spend on U.S. goods and services. Foreign Share of U.S. Internal Travel Spending Overseas Arrivals (Millions) 40 18% 35 16% 30 Other Latin America Europe Asia 25 14% 20 12% 15 10% 10 5 8% 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14p 0 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Relative Value of Selected Foreign Currencies compared to U.S. Dollar Monthly Averages, 2014 Sources: Foreign Share of U.S Internal Travel: Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel & Tourism Satellite Accounts and International Transactions. 105 100 China 95 Canada 90 Euro Overseas Arrivals: Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, U.S. Department of Commerce. Relative Value of Selected Foreign Currencies: USForex, Inc. (www.usforex.com) Japan 85 JAN 2 JUN DEC Internal travel does not include spending on international airfares to U.S carriers. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 3 The following two graphs show employment trends since 2000. The first graph shows that travel-generated employment has increased at a steady rate since 2010, although it is still below the level attained prior to the 2008-09 recession. The second graph shows the employment trends of different types of businesses within the travel industry. The only industry that has exhibited substantial growth has been food services. U.S. Travel Industry Employment Employment (Millions) 6.0 5.8 5.6 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel & Tourism Satellite Accounts. 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14p Components of U.S. Travel Industry Employment 7 Employment (Millions) 6 5 4 1.38 1.11 1.07 1.26 1.11 0.98 1.63 1.71 1.83 1 1.39 1.37 1.40 2000 2008 2014p Transportation Rec., Entertain., Shopping 3 2 All other industries Food Services Accommodations 0 PAGE 4 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES II. ARIZONA TRAVEL DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 5 The multi-billion dollar travel industry in Arizona is an important part of the state and local economies. The industry is represented primarily by businesses in the leisure and hospitality sector, transportation, and retail. The money that visitors spend on various goods and services while in Arizona produces business receipts at these firms, which in turn generate earnings and employment for Arizona residents. In addition, state and local governments collect taxes that are generated from visitor spending. Most of these taxes are imposed on the sale of goods and services to visitors, thus avoiding a tax burden on local residents. The economic impacts directly generated by visitor spending also contribute to significant secondary impacts. A portion of the business receipts generated by visitor spending is spent by businesses within Arizona for other goods and services (indirect impacts). Visitor generated earnings are also spent by employees for goods and services produced in Arizona (induced impacts). SUMMARY OF ARIZONA TRAVEL  Total direct travel spending in Arizona was $20.9 billion in 2014. This represents a 5.4 percent increase over the preceding year in current dollars. In real dollars (adjusted for inflation) Arizona travel spending increased by 4.9 percent. These spending increases are the strongest since the period immediately preceding the 2008-09 recession.  Lodging sales increased by 9.1 percent in 2014 following a 4.1 percent increase the preceding year. The growth in room sales was equally attributable to increased room rates and room demand (STR, Inc.).  Visitor air travel on domestic flights to Arizona destinations increased by 3.9 percent in 2014 – also the strongest growth since the years before the recession. Visitor air arrivals to the state were essentially flat from 2010 through 2013.  Direct travel-generated employment was 171,500 in 2014. This represents an addition of 6,200 jobs, an increase of 3.8 percent. Jobs were added in all major sectors of the travel industry. (See detailed employment estimates, page 17.)  The Gross Domestic Product of the travel industry was $8.3 billion in 2014. The travel industry and the microelectronics industry have been the top two exportoriented industries in the state in recent years.  The re-spending of travel-related revenues by businesses and employees creates secondary impacts. In 2014, the secondary impacts were 147,000 jobs with $6.2 billion in earnings. PAGE 6 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES TRAVEL TRENDS The Arizona travel industry had its strongest year of growth in 2014 in almost a decade. All measures of the industry – spending, employment and visitation were up sharply in 2014. Total direct travel spending increased by 5.4 percent (4.9 percent in real dollars, see next page). Employment increased by 3.8 percent, as jobs were added in all industry sectors (see detailed impact table, page 16). The only decline was in state tax revenue due to the expiration of the temporary 1 percent tax on May 31, 2013.1 Arizona Travel Trends, 1998-2014p Spending 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014p Earnings Employment ($Billion) ($Billion) (Thousand) 11.9 12.7 13.7 13.2 13.2 14.1 15.2 16.9 17.9 18.2 18.1 16.6 17.8 18.8 19.5 19.9 20.9 3.4 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.9 153.4 158.5 160.7 152.7 151.9 155.1 159.2 165.9 169.6 169.2 166.6 157.7 156.0 158.8 162.6 165.3 171.5 6.3 3.5 3.8 0.7 Tax Revenue1 ($Million) Local State Federal 481 467 752 521 500 805 549 534 854 514 534 783 524 561 801 556 591 844 589 632 918 652 694 987 705 728 1,054 721 736 1,102 698 709 1,083 667 686 1,045 689 740 1,080 717 803 1,028 725 827 1,058 722 808 1,170 737 798 1,240 Total 1,700 1,826 1,937 1,831 1,887 1,991 2,139 2,332 2,488 2,559 2,491 2,398 2,509 2,548 2,609 2,699 2,774 Annual Percentage Change 13-14p 98-14p 5.4 3.6 2.1 2.7 -1.3 3.4 6.0 3.2 2.8 3.1 Note: Estimates for 2014p are preliminary. These direct travel impacts do not include secondary (indirect and induced) impacts. One-way visitor airfares are included. Total earnings include wage and salary disbursements, other earned income and proprietor income. Employment includes fulland part-time payroll employees and self-employed. 1 State tax revenue would have increased by 3.4 percent had there been no rate change. Local tax revenue would also have increased by 3.4 percent because of revenue sharing. The effect was even more pronounced because of the seasonality of the Arizona travel industry, as the temporary tax expired after the peak travel season in 2013. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 7 Arizona Direct Travel Spending Real and Current Dollars 2000-2014p Travel Spending (Billions) $22 Real $20 Current $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14p In real dollars (adjusted for inflation) Arizona travel spending increased by 4.9 percent over 2013 – compared to a 1.5 percent increase in the preceding year. The only significant price increase was room rates (5.0 percent, STR, Inc). Sources: STR, Inc., Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation Origin and Destination Survey, and Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-West Urban. Air Passenger Visitor Arrivals to Arizona U.S. Air Carriers, 2000-2014 Visitor air arrivals to Arizona increased by 3.9 percent from 2013 to 2014 – the strongest rate of growth since before the recession. Visitor Air Arrivals (Millions) 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 Sources: U.S. Department of Transportation Origin and Destination Survey and Dean Runyan Associates. 6.0 5.5 5.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Arizona Taxable Lodging Sales 2000-2014 Taxable Lodging Sales (Billions) $2.6 $2.4 $2.2 $2.0 $1.8 $1.6 $1.4 Lodging sales is another indicator of the strength of the travel industry as it reflects the profitability of one of its key sectors. Taxable lodging sales increased by 9.1 percent annually from 2013 to 2014 – following a 4.1 percent increase the preceding year. About one-half of this increase was due to increased room rates. $1.2 $1.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 PAGE 8 Sources: Arizona Department of Revenue and STR, Inc. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES SEASONAL AND REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACTS Lodging sales are used in this section to document seasonal patterns in the Arizona tourism industry. (Lodging sales are used because travel spending and related impacts are estimated only on a calendar year basis.) The pie chart shows the annual distribution of lodging sales by region. The lodging sales of the Phoenix and Central Arizona region are greater than the four other regions combined. (The Northern Arizona region includes Apache, Coconino and Navajo counties. The West Coast region includes La Paz, Mohave and Yuma counties. The North Central region includes Gila and Yavapai counties. The Phoenix and Central Arizona region includes Maricopa and Pinal counties. The Tucson and Southern Arizona region includes Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Pima and Santa Cruz counties.) Regional Shares of Arizona Taxable Lodging Sales, 2014 West Coast 4.1% North Central 5.6% Northern Tucson & 14.0% Southern 15.3% Phoenix & Central 61.0% Taxable Lodging Sales by Region and Quarter, 2014 Northern West Coast North Central Phoenix & Central Lodging sales are greatest in the first quarter for three of Arizona’s tourism regions – the West Coast, Phoenix and Tucson. By contrast, spring and summer quarters are most important for the Northern and North Central regions. The bottom column chart provides a statewide quarterly breakout of lodging sales in two year increments beginning in 2008. (Lodging sales in 2008 were about 5 percent less than the peak year of 2007.) Lodging sales have rebounded in all four quarters. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Tucson & Southern 0% Jan-Mar 20% 40% Apr-Jun 60% 80% Jul-Sep 100% Oct-Dec Arizona Taxable Lodging Sales by Quarter, 2008-2014 (Millions) $1,000 $800 Millions The next two graphs provide quarterly breakouts for the regions and the state. $600 $400 $200 $0 Jan-Mar Apr-Jun 2008 2010 Jul-Sep 2012 Oct-Dec 2014 Source: Arizona Department of Revenue taxable hotel/motel sales. PAGE 9 VISITOR ORIGIN Out-of-state travelers generate more than three-fourths of the visitor impacts in Arizona. Visitors from other states are the largest segment (more than 60 percent of spending), while international travel, including day travel from Mexico, comprises approximately 17 percent of visitor impacts. Arizona Travel Impacts by Origin of Visitor, 2014p Origin Spending Earnings Employment Tax Receipts ($ Million) ($ Billion) ($ Billion) (Thousand) Local/State Federal 3.9 11.2 3.1 18.2 2.7 20.9 0.9 3.3 0.6 4.8 1.0 5.9 31.5 102.9 21.9 156.3 15.3 171.5 318 968 224 1,511 24 1,534 193 765 113 1,071 169 1,240 Arizona Other U.S. International All Visitors Other Travel Total Travel Sources: Dean Runyan Associates, International Trade Administration and Bureau of Economic Analysis (U.S. Dept. of Commerce), TNS TravelsAmerica visitor survey, Statistics Canada, Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi and Alberta H. Charney, “Mexican Visitors to Arizona: Visitor Characteristics and Economic Impacts, 2007-08” (Karl Eller College of Business and Public Administration, University of Arizona) and Bureau of Transportation Statistics Border Crossing/Entry Data. International Visitor Spending in Arizona, 2000-2014p International Share Spending in Real (2014) Dollars 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Share $3.4 Spend $3.2 $3.0 $2.8 $2.6 $2.4 $2.2 $2.0 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14p Sources: See above chart for source of international estimates. See first graph on preceding page for constant dollar estimates. Constant dollar visitor spending does not include “Other Travel.” PAGE 10 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES ARIZONA TRAVEL INDUSTRY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT In concept, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of a particular industry is equal to gross output (sales or receipts) minus intermediate inputs (the goods and services purchased from other industries). GDP is always smaller than output or sales because GDP measures only the “value added” of an industry and does not include the cost of the inputs that are also necessary to produce a good or service. Alternatively, GDP can be thought of as the sum of earnings, indirect business taxes (primarily excise and property taxes) and other operating surplus (including profits). Estimates of travel spending and travel industry GDP are shown in the chart below. Arizona travel industry GDP amounted to $8.3 billion in 2014. Arizona travel industry GDP has represented slightly less than 3.0 percent of total state GDP in recent years. About 60 percent of all travel spending in Arizona is attributed to intermediate inputs and goods resold at retail. Intermediate inputs cover a range of goods and services that are purchased by travel industry businesses for the purpose of creating a product or service for the traveler. For example, lodging establishments purchase cable television services. Restaurants purchase food and beverages from vendors. In both cases, these inputs are classified as the GDP of other industries. In addition, travel spending occurs at many retail establishments where the goods purchased from the retailer are purchased as finished goods from suppliers. These resold goods are also counted as products of other industries. This would include motor fuel, groceries and most of the commodities sold at retail establishments.2 Arizona Travel Industry Gross Domestic Product, 2014p $25 $20 Billions $12.6 Inputs $15 12.6 $2.4 Surplus & Taxes $10 $5 $0 $5.9 Earnings 5.9 5.9 2.4 2.4 Spending ($20.9) GDP ($8.3) Sources: Dean Runyan Associates, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Minnesota Implan Group. Details may not add to totals due to rounding. 2 About 38 percent of the $12.6 billion of inputs and goods resold are purchased from other Arizona businesses. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 11 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OF ARIZONA EXPORT-ORIENTED INDUSTRIES Export-oriented industries are those industries that primarily market their products and services to other regions, states or nations. 3 Agriculture, mining, and manufacturing are the best examples of export-oriented industries. Clearly, there are cases in each of these three sectors where the products are sold within the local or regional market. Nonetheless, in general most businesses within these industries depend on export markets. The travel industry is also an export-oriented industry because goods and services are sold to visitors, rather than residents. The travel industry injects money into the local economy, as do the exports of other industries. Exports are not necessarily more important than locally traded goods and services. However, diverse export-oriented industries in any economy are a source of strength – in part because they generate income that contributes to the development of other local services and amenities. Such industries characterize the “comparative advantage” of the local economy within larger regional, national and global markets. A comparison of the GDP’s of the leading export-oriented industries in Arizona is shown below. 2014 GDP of Major Arizona Export Industries Agric./Food Proc. Mining Micro-Electronics Aerospace Travel $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 Gross Domestic Product (Billions) Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Dean Runyan Associates. 2014 estimates for non-travel industries based on 2013 GDP and 2014 earnings and payroll. 3 See also pages 55 of Appendix A and page 67 of Appendix D. PAGE 12 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES DIRECT, SECONDARY AND TOTAL IMPACTS Travel spending within Arizona brings money into many Arizona communities in the form of business receipts. Portions of these receipts are spent within the state for labor and supplies. Employees, in turn, spend a portion of their earnings on goods and services in the state. This re-spending of travel-related revenues creates indirect and induced impacts. To summarize:  Direct impacts represent the employment and earnings attributable to travel expenditures made directly by travelers at businesses throughout the state.  Indirect impacts represent the employment and earnings associated with industries that supply goods and services to the direct businesses (i.e., those that receive money directly from travelers throughout the state).  Induced impacts represent the employment and earnings that result from purchases for food, housing, transportation, recreation, and other goods and services made by travel industry employees, and the employees of the indirectly affected industries. Total Employment and Earnings Generated by Travel Spending in Arizona, 2014p Employment (Thousands) Induced 108.2 Indirect 39.2 Earnings (Billions) Induced $4.5 Direct 171.5 Direct $5.9 Indirect $1.7 Note: Indirect and induced impacts estimated by Dean Runyan Associates with Minnesota IMPLAN model. Total employment was 319,000. The employment multiplier for 2014 is 1.86 (319.0/171.5). Total earnings were $12.1 billion. The earnings multiplier is 2.05 ($12.1/$5.9). DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 13 The impacts in this section are presented in terms of the employment and earnings of eleven major industry groups. These industry groups are similar, but not identical to the business service (or commodity) categories presented elsewhere in this report. (The specific industries that comprise these major groups are listed in Appendix D.) Direct travel impacts, such as those discussed in the first part of this section and the regional and county impacts presented elsewhere in this report are found in the following industry groups:  Accommodations & Food Services  Arts, Entertainment and Recreation  Retail Trade  Transportation As is indicated in the following tables and graphs, the total direct employment and earnings of these four industry groups is identical to the total direct employment and earnings shown in the first part of this section. The only difference is that these industry groups represent industry groupings (firms) rather than commodity or business service groupings. The indirect and induced impacts of travel spending are found in all eleven-industry groupings shown in the following tables and graphs. To summarize the primary secondary impacts:  Professional Services (32,000 jobs and $1.9 billion earnings). Legal, medical, educational and other professional services are utilized by travel businesses (indirect effect) and by employees of these firms (induced effect).  Other Services (13,000 jobs and $421 million earnings). Employees of travelrelated businesses purchase services from various providers, such as dry cleaners and repair shops. Similarly, travel businesses utilize a number of service providers, such as laundry, maintenance and business services.  Government (24,000 jobs and $1.4 billion earnings). Employees of travel-related businesses pay fees to attend public educational institutions and to operate motor vehicles.  Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (11,000 jobs and $547 million earnings). Employees and businesses use the services of financial institutions, insurers and real estate businesses. PAGE 14 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Direct and Secondary Employment Generated by Travel Spending in Arizona, 2014p Accomm. & Food Serv. Arts, Entertain., Rec. Transportation Retail Trade Prof. Services Government Other Services Finance, Ins., & Real… Construction Mining & Manufacturing Agric.& Food Processing Direct 0 20 Secondary 40 60 80 100 Direct and Secondary Employment (Thousands) Direct and Secondary Earnings Generated by Travel Spending in Arizona, 2014p Accomm. & Food Serv. Transportation Prof. Services Government Arts, Entertain., Rec. Construction Retail Trade Finance, Ins., & Real Estate Other Services Mining & Manufacturing Agric.& Food Processing Direct $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 Secondary $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 Direct and Secondary Earnings (Billions) See notes at end of table on page 20. Detailed estimates are reported in the following table. It should be emphasized that the estimates of indirect and induced impacts reported here apply to the entire state of Arizona and do not necessarily reflect economic patterns for individual counties, regions or subregions within the state. While total economic impacts can be calculated on a county or regional level, such a detailed analysis is not included in this study. In general, geographic areas with lower levels of aggregate economic activity will have smaller secondary impacts within those same geographic boundaries. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 15 Direct & Secondary Visitor-Generated Employment in Arizona, 2014p (thousand jobs) Industry Group Accomm. & Food Serv. Arts, Entertain., Rec. Transportation Retail Trade Prof. Services Government Other Services Finance, Ins., & Real Estate Construction Mining & Manufacturing Agric.& Food Processing All Industries Direct 89 39 29 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 172 Secondary Indirect Induced 4 9 6 2 5 4 3 18 8 24 1 23 5 8 4 7 1 10 1 2 1 1 39 108 Total 13 8 9 21 32 24 13 11 11 4 2 147 Grand Total 101 47 38 37 32 24 13 11 11 4 2 319 Direct & Secondary Visitor-Generated Earnings in Arizona, 2014p ($ Million) Industry Group Accomm. & Food Serv. Transportation Prof. Services Government Arts, Entertain., Rec. Construction Retail Trade Finance, Ins., & Real Estate Other Services Mining & Manufacturing Agric.& Food Processing All Industries Direct 2,451 1,886 0 0 1,058 0 484 0 0 0 0 5,878 Secondary Indirect Induced 79 179 134 40 567 1,356 92 1,286 214 60 53 613 14 153 191 356 203 219 119 195 35 39 1,700 4,495 Total 259 174 1,923 1,378 274 665 167 547 421 313 73 6,195 Grand Total 2,710 2,060 1,923 1,378 1,332 665 650 547 421 313 73 12,073 Source: Dean Runyan Associates and Minnesota Implan Group. Note: These industry groups are not equivalent to the categories used in the direct impact tables used in this report. See Appendix D. Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Detailed direct travel impacts for 2006 through 2014p are shown on the following page. PAGE 16 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Arizona Direct Travel Impacts, 2006-2014p 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014p Total Direct Travel Spending ($Billion) Destination Spending 15.8 16.0 15.7 16.7 17.1 17.4 18.2 Other Travel* 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.7 Total Direct Spending 17.9 18.1 17.8 18.8 19.5 19.9 20.9 Visitor Spending by Type of Traveler Accommodation ($Billion) Hotel, Motel 7.7 7.3 7.0 7.4 7.7 7.9 8.4 Private Home 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 Campground 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Vacation Home 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Day Travel 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.0 Destination Spending 15.8 16.0 15.7 16.7 17.1 17.4 18.2 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Billion) Accommodations 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 Food Service 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 4.0 Food Stores 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 Local Tran. & Gas 2.8 3.2 3.1 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.7 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 Retail Sales 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 Visitor Air Tran. 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 Destination Spending 15.8 16.0 15.7 16.7 17.1 17.4 18.2 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Billion) Accom. & Food Serv. 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 Retail** 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Ground Tran. 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Visitor Air Tran. 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Other Travel* 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 Total Direct Earnings 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.9 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 83.7 83.4 80.2 82.2 83.3 85.9 88.6 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 38.7 37.4 35.6 35.7 36.6 37.3 38.7 Retail** 19.7 20.0 16.9 16.8 16.6 16.8 17.5 Ground Tran. 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 Visitor Air Tran. 8.2 7.9 7.1 7.4 7.5 7.2 7.6 Other Travel* 15.5 14.4 12.8 13.2 14.9 14.3 15.3 Total Direct Employment 169.6 166.6 156.0 158.8 162.6 165.3 171.5 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 705 698 689 717 725 722 737 State Tax Receipts 728 709 740 803 827 808 798 Federal Tax Receipts 1,054 1,083 1,080 1,028 1,058 1,170 1,240 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 2,488 2,491 2,509 2,548 2,609 2,699 2,774 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement & reservation services, and convention & trade organizers. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 17 III. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE This section is concerned with the contribution of the Arizona travel industry to state and local government finance. The first part of the report compares the travel industry to various other sectors of the state economy. The remainder provides an overview of state and local finance and the revenue contribution of the travel industry. INDUSTRY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND TAXES One way to consider the tax contributions of various sectors of the economy is to express the tax payments of businesses to government as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product. The bar chart and accompanying table show these tax payments (taxes on production and imports or TOPI) for a sample of goods-producing and service sectors in the state, including travel. TOPI include most of the taxes paid by the business firm to local, state and federal governments except for income taxes. This includes property taxes, licenses and fees and the sales and excise taxes collected from consumers. It is because of these later taxes that retail trade and travel have relatively high proportions of tax payments in relation to their gross domestic products. Production & Import Taxes as a Percent of Gross Domestic Product Selected Arizona Industry Sectors, 2013 Calendar Year Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Dean Runyan Associates. Construction Health Care Manufacturing *TOPI denotes taxes on production and imports, less subsidies. Retail Travel All Industries 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% GDP & TOPI expressed in $Million. Percent of Gross Domestic Product Construction Health Care Manufacturing Retail Travel All Industries PAGE 18 GDP 12,709 22,285 23,168 20,683 7,660 274,734 *TOPI 293 463 791 4,812 1,241 18,319 Percent 2.3% 2.1% 3.4% 23.3% 16.2% 6.7% DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES The remainder of this report will focus on the travel industry and the specific tax contributions made to state and local government in Arizona. In addition to the taxes on production discussed in the previous section, the tax payments of travel industry employees derived from the income earned from travel industry businesses will be included.1 The three primary sources of tax revenue generated by the travel industry are:  Sales tax receipts generated by visitor spending. This includes local and state sales taxes, lodging taxes, alcoholic beverage taxes, motor vehicle rental taxes and motor fuel taxes.  Taxes paid by travel industry businesses attributable to travel generated business receipts (property and income taxes).  Taxes paid by travel industry employees attributable to travel generated earnings (sales and property taxes). ARIZONA TAX STRUCTURE The pie chart below, adapted from the Bureau of the Census’ State and Local Government Finance and other data sources, shows the main categories of tax revenue in Arizona. Approximately one-half of all tax revenue is derived from sales and gross receipts taxes. Property taxes, paid primarily by homeowners and businesses to local governments, constitute more than one-fourth of all tax revenue.2 Income taxes constitute about one-fifth of all tax revenue. Arizona State and Local Government Tax Revenues 2013-14 Fiscal Year (Billions) Sales & Gross Receipts $10.4 49% Property $6.1 28% Income $4.0 19% License & Other $0.8 4% Sources: The 2013-14 fiscal year estimates of state and local tax revenues in Arizona were prepared by Dean Runyan Associates from various sources, including the Bureau of the Census (State and Local Government Finance), the Arizona Department of Revenue, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and a selection of annual financial reports for cities and counties. Sales and gross receipts taxes include the state privilege tax, local sales taxes and a variety of selective taxes, such as those on motor fuel and lodging. 1 In effect, this means re-allocating some of the sales and excise payments made by other industries to the travel industry because the payments are ultimately made by consumers that earned their income in the travel industry. 2 Businesses pay 68 percent of all property taxes in Arizona according the Tax Foundation (Fiscal Fact No. 342, November 21, 2012). DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 19 TRAVEL INDUSTRY TAX REVENUE The distribution of taxes generated by the travel industry for the 2013-14 fiscal year is shown in the following pie chart. The categories are the same as the preceding figure, with the exception that sales tax receipts are also distinguished between those that are generated by visitor spending and those that are generated by the spending of travel industry employees. Arizona Travel Industry State and Local Government Tax Revenues 2013-14 Fiscal Year (Million) Income $120 8% Property $140 9% Other $50 3% Employee Sales $210 14% Visitor Sales $1,010 66% Source: Dean Runyan Associates. “Other” travel-generated tax revenue includes gaming taxes and passenger facility charges for visitors who travel to Arizona airports. Whereas slightly about one-half of all state and local tax revenue in Arizona was attributable to sales tax collections in the 2013-14 fiscal year, 80 percent of all travel industry tax revenue was attributable to sales tax receipts from visitors (66 percent) and the purchases of employees in the travel industry (14 percent). Travel industry state and local tax revenues are compared to total Arizona state and local tax revenues in the following table. Because the travel industry generates a relatively high proportion of sales tax revenues, it is associated with proportionately more tax revenues than would be expected given the size of the industry, as measured by earnings or gross domestic product. Whereas the earnings and GDP of the travel industry are in the range of two and one-half percent of the state totals, travel industry tax revenues represent 7.2 percent of all state and local tax revenues in Arizona. This is consistent with the initial analysis that compared different industries within the state. PAGE 20 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Arizona State and Local Tax Revenues 2013-14 Fiscal Year ($Million) Travel Generated $1,230 $120 $140 $50 $1,540 Total $4,010 $10,430 $6,090 $840 $21,370 Sales & Gross Receipts Income Property License & Other Total Tax Receipts Percent Travel 30.6% 1.2% 2.3% 5.8% 7.2% Source: Dean Runyan Associates and Bureau of the Census, State and Local Government Finance. SUMMARY This analysis of the tax revenue generated by the Arizona travel industry can be summarized as follows:  The Arizona travel industry contributes more tax revenue to state and local governments than would be expected based on the size of the industry. Whereas the gross domestic product and employee earnings represent about three percent of the state economy, the travel industry generated 7.2 percent of tax revenue in the 2014 fiscal year.  Eighty percent of all travel-generated tax revenue is attributable to sales and gross receipts taxes. The travel industry share of the state total is more than 30 percent. Not only are most travel industry goods and services taxed, but a large share of these commodities (lodging and motor fuel) are taxed at rates that are greater than the general sales tax.  A majority of these tax revenues are borne by visitors who reside in other states and countries.  The tax impacts of the travel industry are generally greater for the less urbanized counties in the state, as illustrated in the graph below. State Transaction Privilege Taxes Generated By Direct Travel Spending, 2014 FY Source: Arizona Department of Revenue and Dean Runyan Associates. Graph derived from table on following page. Maricopa & Pima All Other Counties 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% The revenue contributions of Arizona’s fifteen counties are detailed in the following two tables. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 21 State Transaction Privilege Taxes Generated by Travel Spending, FY 2014 ($Millions) Total Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham/Greenlee La Paz Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma Arizona Travel 15.1 72.3 127.0 33.2 56.5 13.4 3,511.9 128.8 68.5 705.0 144.4 28.0 150.0 120.2 5,174.1 3.2 11.2 38.0 5.8 2.9 3.1 302.0 15.2 9.4 78.9 17.6 8.3 20.0 16.8 532.3 Percent 21.0% 15.5% 29.9% 17.5% 11.9% 22.9% 8.6% 11.8% 13.8% 11.2% 12.2% 29.5% 13.3% 13.9% 10.3% State and Local Travel-Generated Tax Revenue per Household 2014 Calendar Year Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham/Greenlee La Paz Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma Arizona PAGE 22 Tax Revenue (Millions) Local State Total $4.3 $5.2 $9.5 $17.2 $16.9 $34.1 $45.3 $46.8 $92.1 $7.2 $11.7 $18.9 $2.9 $4.1 $7.0 $4.5 $5.9 $10.3 $484.0 $462.1 $946.1 $16.5 $23.6 $40.1 $11.1 $13.6 $24.7 $74.3 $110.8 $185.1 $17.3 $28.0 $45.4 $7.9 $11.0 $18.9 $24.7 $31.2 $55.9 $19.5 $26.7 $46.2 $736.7 $797.6 $1,534.3 Households (Thousands) 23.2 50.8 48.3 22.1 15.0 9.3 1,501.9 85.0 36.1 400.1 128.6 15.5 94.4 67.2 2,497.6 Tax Revenue per Household $410 $670 $1,910 $850 $520 $1,110 $630 $470 $690 $460 $350 $1,220 $590 $690 $610 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES IV: REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACTS 1998-2014P NORTHERN ARIZONA WEST COAST ARIZONA NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA PHOENIX & CENTRAL ARIZONA TICSON & SOUTHERN ARIZONA The Northern Arizona region includes Apache, Coconino and Navajo counties. West Coast Arizona includes La Paz, Mohave and Yuma counties. North Central Arizona includes Gila and Yavapai counties. Phoenix and Central Arizona includes Maricopa and Pinal counties. Tucson and Southern Arizona includes Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Pima and Santa Cruz counties. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 23 2014p Arizona Regional Travel Impacts Travel Spending Total Visitor Northern Arizona West Coast Arizona North Central Arizona Phoenix & Central Arizona Tucson & Southern Arizona Arizona Earnings Related Travel-Generated Impacts Employment Local Taxes State Taxes Total Taxes ($Million) ($Million) ($Million) (jobs) ($Million) ($Million) ($Million) 1,548 1,390 1,024 13,326 3,635 20,923 1,444 1,239 945 10,082 2,994 18,211 431 315 249 4,098 785 5,878 16,770 13,180 10,750 100,150 30,690 171,540 61 40 32 501 102 737 66 56 43 490 143 798 126 97 75 991 245 1,534 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. The sum of regional visitor spending is less than statewide visitor spending because a portion of ground transportation is allocated to “other travel” at the regional level. Arizona Regional Total Travel Spending, 1998-2014p ($ Millions) Annual Percent Chg. Northern Arizona West Coast Arizona North Central Arizona Phoenix & Central Arizona Tucson & Southern Arizona Arizona 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014p 919 1,058 998 1,092 1,248 1,293 1,386 1,261 1,339 1,412 1,484 1,507 1,548 795 908 958 1,065 1,233 1,232 1,280 1,229 1,263 1,332 1,352 1,371 1,390 570 689 694 742 884 914 915 831 876 924 974 992 1,024 7,216 8,362 7,834 9,276 11,136 11,418 11,261 10,155 11,097 11,871 12,219 12,557 13,326 2,355 2,718 2,733 3,038 3,406 3,391 3,299 3,102 3,207 3,266 3,461 3,428 3,635 11,854 13,735 13,216 15,215 17,907 18,247 18,142 16,577 17,781 18,805 19,490 19,855 20,923 13-14p 2.8 1.3 3.2 6.1 6.0 5.4 98-14p 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.9 2.8 3.6 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. PAGE 24 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Arizona Regional Travel-Generated Earnings, 1998-2014p ($ Millions) Annual Percent Chg. Northern Arizona West Coast Arizona North Central Arizona Phoenix & Central Arizona Tucson & Southern Arizona Arizona 1998 257 195 155 2,268 506 3,380 2000 289 216 184 2,627 579 3,895 2002 277 234 188 2,510 603 3,811 2004 300 254 195 2,904 649 4,303 2006 333 292 231 3,405 719 4,981 2007 362 297 246 3,573 733 5,212 2008 392 309 246 3,462 711 5,120 2009 366 308 227 3,290 685 4,876 2010 375 297 221 3,401 679 4,973 2011 385 300 219 3,591 684 5,180 2012 402 301 232 3,714 743 5,393 2013 2014p 414 431 309 315 242 249 3,835 4,098 730 785 5,529 5,878 13-14p 4.1 1.8 3.2 6.9 7.6 6.3 98-14p 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.8 2.8 3.5 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. Arizona Regional Travel-Generated Employment, 1998-2014p (thousands) Annual Percent Chg. Northern Arizona West Coast Arizona North Central Arizona Phoenix & Central Arizona Tucson & Southern Arizona Arizona 1998 16.2 11.8 9.5 87.6 28.1 153.4 2000 16.8 12.1 10.2 91.4 30.2 160.7 2002 15.2 12.9 11.4 82.2 30.2 151.9 2004 15.4 13.0 11.0 88.2 31.6 159.2 2006 15.7 14.5 11.4 95.2 32.8 169.6 2007 16.0 13.8 11.4 96.1 31.9 169.2 2008 16.8 13.7 11.5 94.5 30.1 166.6 2009 15.7 13.6 10.7 88.5 29.2 157.7 2010 16.0 13.2 10.2 88.2 28.5 156.0 2011 16.1 13.2 10.2 90.9 28.4 158.8 2012 16.2 13.2 10.4 93.0 29.7 162.6 2013 2014p 16.6 16.8 13.3 13.2 10.5 10.8 95.4 100.2 29.5 30.7 165.3 171.5 13-14p 1.1 -0.7 1.9 5.0 4.0 3.8 98-14p 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. Travel-Generated Employment and Earnings as Percent of Total, 2014p Northern Arizona West Coast Arizona North Central Arizona Phoenix & Central Arizona Tucson & Southern Arizona Arizona Total Employment (thousands) Percent Total Travel Travel 155.0 16.8 10.8% 156.4 13.2 8.4% 110.2 10.8 9.8% 2,450.0 100.2 4.1% 593.7 30.7 5.2% 3,465.3 171.5 5.0% DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Earnings (Million) Total $6,190 $6,595 $4,056 $131,239 $27,700 $175,779 Travel $431 $315 $249 $4,098 $785 $5,878 Percent Travel 7.0% 4.8% 6.1% 3.1% 2.8% 3.3% Source: Dean Runyan Associates, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total and travel-generated employment estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. PAGE 25 Northern Arizona Travel Impacts, 2006-2014p 2006 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 1,182 1,307 1,266 Other Travel* 66 80 73 Total Direct Spending 1,248 1,386 1,339 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 722 803 764 Private Home 131 142 145 Campground 43 49 48 Vacation Home 82 89 89 Day Travel 204 223 220 Destination Spending 1,182 1,307 1,266 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 316 363 344 Food Service 276 304 309 Food Stores 69 78 76 Local Tran. & Gas 130 167 150 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 173 181 176 Retail Sales 203 206 198 Visitor Air Tran. 15 8 13 Destination Spending 1,182 1,307 1,266 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 199 244 232 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 76 83 91 Retail** 42 46 39 Visitor Air Tran. 8 6 6 Other Travel* 8 13 7 Total Direct Earnings 333 392 375 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 9.4 10.3 9.9 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 4.1 4.1 4.2 Retail** 1.8 1.9 1.6 Visitor Air Tran. 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other Travel* 0.3 0.4 0.2 Total Direct Employment 15.7 16.8 16.0 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 50.7 58.4 57.6 State Tax Receipts 56.0 60.5 61.8 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 106.7 118.9 119.4 2011 2012 2013 2014p 1,327 86 1,412 1,385 99 1,484 1,405 101 1,507 1,444 104 1,548 795 157 50 93 230 1,327 840 161 50 96 239 1,385 860 159 49 96 242 1,405 889 164 48 99 245 1,444 361 315 80 181 177 198 14 1,327 381 331 83 190 181 205 14 1,385 395 340 83 186 183 204 13 1,405 416 352 87 182 186 206 15 1,444 232 99 40 6 8 385 245 100 40 6 11 402 254 102 40 5 13 414 266 103 41 6 14 431 9.9 4.2 1.6 0.1 0.3 16.1 10.0 4.1 1.6 0.1 0.4 16.2 10.2 4.3 1.6 0.1 0.4 16.6 10.4 4.2 1.6 0.1 0.5 16.8 59.5 67.3 126.8 61.3 70.0 131.2 60.7 66.8 127.5 60.7 65.7 126.4 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. Northern Arizona includes Apache, Coconino and Navajo counties. PAGE 26 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES West Coast Arizona Travel Impacts, 2006-2014p 2006 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 1,133 1,150 1,137 Other Travel* 99 130 126 Total Direct Spending 1,233 1,280 1,263 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 289 259 253 Private Home 224 247 250 Campground 112 125 126 Vacation Home 91 99 98 Day Travel 418 420 410 Destination Spending 1,133 1,150 1,137 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 146 135 124 Food Service 240 245 259 Food Stores 120 128 124 Local Tran. & Gas 138 167 156 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 252 251 251 Retail Sales 227 212 211 Visitor Air Tran. 10 12 12 Destination Spending 1,133 1,150 1,137 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 123 130 136 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 103 106 95 Retail** 55 56 50 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 1 Other Travel* 10 17 15 Total Direct Earnings 292 309 297 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 6.7 6.5 6.6 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 5.3 4.6 4.2 Retail** 2.1 2.0 1.8 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.4 0.6 0.5 Total Direct Employment 14.5 13.7 13.2 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 41.5 41.2 41.2 State Tax Receipts 54.0 53.2 55.7 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 95.5 94.4 96.9 2011 2012 2013 2014p 1,189 144 1,332 1,205 147 1,352 1,224 147 1,371 1,239 151 1,390 278 264 133 103 411 1,189 277 265 128 105 429 1,205 266 276 133 106 443 1,224 277 274 123 109 456 1,239 133 266 126 187 259 206 12 1,189 132 271 131 191 255 214 12 1,205 129 280 136 190 256 220 12 1,224 136 287 143 182 252 225 14 1,239 140 94 49 1 16 300 137 98 49 0 16 301 145 97 50 0 17 309 151 94 52 0 18 315 6.8 4.2 1.7 0.0 0.5 13.2 6.4 4.5 1.7 0.0 0.5 13.2 6.7 4.3 1.7 0.0 0.5 13.3 6.8 4.0 1.7 0.0 0.6 13.2 42.1 59.4 101.5 41.8 59.8 101.5 41.2 58.4 99.6 40.5 56.1 96.6 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. West Coast Arizona includes La Paz, Mohave and Yuma counties. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 27 North Central Arizona Travel Impacts, 2006-2016p 2006 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 819 843 812 Other Travel* 64 71 64 Total Direct Spending 884 915 876 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 286 277 250 Private Home 104 115 117 Campground 23 26 25 Vacation Home 35 38 37 Day Travel 371 388 382 Destination Spending 819 843 812 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 136 139 121 Food Service 153 157 161 Food Stores 56 62 61 Local Tran. & Gas 87 106 97 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 271 268 261 Retail Sales 115 110 111 Visitor Air Tran. 1 0 1 Destination Spending 819 843 812 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 96 107 96 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 99 102 93 Retail** 27 28 25 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 9 9 7 Total Direct Earnings 231 246 221 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 4.6 4.7 4.2 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 5.4 5.2 4.7 Retail** 1.1 1.2 1.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.4 0.4 0.3 Total Direct Employment 11.4 11.5 10.2 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 30.1 30.9 29.6 State Tax Receipts 39.7 39.7 39.7 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 69.8 70.6 69.3 2011 2012 2013 2014p 851 73 924 899 75 974 916 76 992 945 79 1,024 261 127 27 39 398 851 293 130 27 40 408 899 310 130 26 41 410 916 330 132 27 42 415 945 126 166 64 117 263 113 1 851 142 176 66 124 273 116 2 899 150 182 67 122 276 117 1 916 165 191 70 120 281 118 1 945 100 87 25 0 6 219 111 89 25 0 6 232 120 89 25 0 7 242 128 87 26 0 8 249 4.3 4.6 1.0 0.0 0.2 10.2 4.6 4.6 1.0 0.0 0.2 10.4 4.8 4.5 1.0 0.0 0.2 10.5 5.1 4.4 1.0 0.0 0.2 10.8 30.1 42.2 72.3 31.6 44.4 75.9 31.7 43.5 75.2 31.9 42.9 74.8 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. North Central Arizona includes Gila and Yavapai counties. PAGE 28 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Phoenix & Central Arizona Travel Impacts, 2006-2014p 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 8,669 8,620 8,621 9,137 9,290 9,509 Other Travel* 2,468 2,642 2,476 2,734 2,929 3,048 Total Direct Spending 11,136 11,261 11,097 11,871 12,219 12,557 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 4,765 4,481 4,304 4,575 4,695 4,849 Private Home 2,227 2,355 2,495 2,625 2,625 2,696 Campground 269 289 278 293 297 267 Vacation Home 283 322 334 347 356 363 Day Travel 1,124 1,173 1,210 1,296 1,318 1,333 Destination Spending 8,669 8,620 8,621 9,137 9,290 9,509 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 1,742 1,680 1,413 1,522 1,568 1,618 Food Service 1,831 1,852 1,997 2,093 2,156 2,229 Food Stores 285 311 318 340 343 346 Local Tran. & Gas 1,027 1,111 1,115 1,269 1,297 1,299 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 1,186 1,140 1,158 1,193 1,205 1,222 Retail Sales 1,331 1,245 1,309 1,358 1,368 1,384 Visitor Air Tran. 1,266 1,281 1,311 1,363 1,353 1,411 Destination Spending 8,669 8,620 8,621 9,137 9,290 9,509 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 1,171 1,259 1,228 1,291 1,329 1,388 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 537 540 540 546 587 613 Retail** 234 234 218 231 227 226 Ground Tran. 107 102 109 117 119 120 Visitor Air Tran. 565 543 564 612 601 598 Other Travel* 792 786 743 795 852 890 Total Direct Earnings 3,405 3,462 3,401 3,591 3,714 3,835 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 44.3 45.0 43.1 44.6 45.1 46.9 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 18.0 18.1 16.9 17.2 17.9 18.7 Retail** 7.2 7.3 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.8 Ground Tran. 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 Visitor Air Tran. 7.8 7.5 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.0 Other Travel* 14.9 13.9 12.0 12.3 13.3 13.0 Total Direct Employment 95.2 94.5 88.2 90.9 93.0 95.4 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 475.3 465.6 459.9 485.2 488.0 489.5 State Tax Receipts 436.9 425.6 447.1 492.3 503.9 496.4 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 912.1 891.3 907.0 977.5 991.9 985.9 2014p 10,082 3,244 13,326 5,215 2,823 282 373 1,388 10,082 1,779 2,374 368 1,338 1,273 1,430 1,520 10,082 1,461 674 238 127 632 965 4,098 48.3 20.4 7.0 3.1 7.3 14.1 100.2 501.3 490.1 991.5 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. Phoenix & Central Arizona includes Maricopa and Pinal counties. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 29 Tucson & Southern Arizona Travel Impacts, 2006-2014p 2006 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 2,883 2,719 2,671 Other Travel* 523 580 536 Total Direct Spending 3,406 3,299 3,207 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 1,262 1,114 1,097 Private Home 528 569 575 Campground 67 49 42 Vacation Home 51 56 56 Day Travel 975 932 901 Destination Spending 2,883 2,719 2,671 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 487 428 391 Food Service 658 616 652 Food Stores 287 290 274 Local Tran. & Gas 362 364 355 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 224 209 211 Retail Sales 656 590 584 Visitor Air Tran. 210 223 204 Destination Spending 2,883 2,719 2,671 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 385 383 375 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 98 95 94 Retail** 137 131 117 Ground Tran. 30 25 27 Visitor Air Tran. 10 12 11 Other Travel* 59 65 55 Total Direct Earnings 719 711 679 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 18.7 16.9 16.4 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 6.0 5.4 5.5 Retail** 5.1 4.8 4.1 Ground Tran. 0.8 0.7 0.7 Visitor Air Tran. 0.2 0.2 0.2 Other Travel* 2.0 2.1 1.6 Total Direct Employment 32.8 30.1 28.5 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 107.5 101.7 100.6 State Tax Receipts 141.9 130.4 135.7 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 249.4 232.1 236.3 2011 2012 2013 2014p 2,667 599 3,266 2,771 690 3,461 2,803 625 3,428 2,994 641 3,635 1,093 597 45 59 874 2,667 1,118 599 46 60 947 2,771 1,130 591 45 60 976 2,803 1,229 612 45 62 1,047 2,994 388 651 265 393 210 557 203 2,667 394 682 289 411 212 585 198 2,771 397 699 302 408 211 597 190 2,803 433 749 332 418 220 640 202 2,994 385 92 113 28 10 57 684 410 92 116 29 9 86 743 416 92 117 29 7 67 730 444 100 127 30 10 73 785 16.5 5.4 4.0 0.7 0.2 1.5 28.4 17.2 5.4 4.0 0.7 0.2 2.2 29.7 17.3 5.4 4.0 0.7 0.1 1.9 29.5 18.0 5.6 4.3 0.7 0.2 1.8 30.7 99.8 142.1 241.9 102.1 148.7 250.8 98.7 142.9 241.5 102.3 142.8 245.1 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. Tucson & Southern Arizona includes Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Pima and Santa Cruz counties. PAGE 30 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES V: COUNTY TRAVEL IMPACTS 1998-2014P APACHE COCONINO MOHAVE NAVAJO YAVAPAI LA PAZ GILA GREENLEE MARICOPA PINAL GRAHAM YUMA PIMA COCHISE SANTA CRUZ DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 31 The analysis of travel impacts at the county level provides a valuable overview of how the economic benefits of travel and tourism are distributed throughout the state. Urban areas, such as Maricopa County, tend to have highly developed travel industry infrastructure consisting of large inventories of amusement and recreation opportunities, commercial accommodations, and well-developed transportation links. Hotel/motel guests are important to these areas and, hence, a large proportion of travel expenditures are spent on overnight lodging. In many of the less urbanized areas of Arizona, however, the economic significance of travel and tourism is actually relatively more important. The infrastructure that serves visitors to Maricopa County also serves local residents. Most of the spending on recreation and food services in Maricopa county is by local residents. This is not the case in most other less urbanized areas of the state – leisure and hospitality businesses are generally much more dependent on visitor spending rather than local residents. In the graph below, the two most populous counties in Arizona, Maricopa and Pima, are compared with the thirteen other counties in the state with respect to their share of total employment – two-thirds of all travel-generated jobs in the state are in the two most populous counties. Distribution of Travel-Generated Employment, 2014p Percent of State Direct Travel-Generated Employment All other 31% Maricopa & Pima 69% Source: Dean Runyan Associates, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total and travel-generated employments estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. PAGE 32 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES However, as a group the less urbanized counties in the state actually have a higher proportion of travel-generated employment in relation to the total employment of the county. This is shown graphically below. Four percent of all employment in Maricopa and Pima counties is travel-generated. By contrast, the proportion is more than double in for the other Arizona counties. Percent of Total Area Employment that is Travel-Generated, 2014p Maricopa & Pima All other 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: Dean Runyan Associates, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total and travel-generated employment estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Travel-generate employment in Maricopa and Pima counties constitutes 4.1 percent of all employment in those counties. The comparable figure for other Arizona counties is 9.0 In general, the employment and earnings estimates provided in the preceding figures are probably the best measure at the county level of the relative importance of travel and tourism for local economies. The following table provides estimates for individual counties. Total employment includes all full-time and part-time wage and salary employment and self-employment. Because total employment includes all jobs, regardless of the hours worked, the average annual earnings of the job or the number of individuals employed, this indicator is in some respects less useful than earnings estimates. Nonetheless, the distribution of counties is similar for earnings and employment. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 33 Travel-Generated Employment and Earnings as Percent of Total, 2014p Employment Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham/Greenlee La Paz Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma Arizona Total Total 28,320 54,090 86,190 22,910 19,060 8,010 2,365,970 64,530 40,480 500,590 84,020 19,980 87,320 83,830 3,465,310 Travel 1,530 4,010 11,630 2,580 1,230 1,390 94,300 5,870 3,610 23,410 5,850 2,050 8,170 5,920 171,540 Earnings (Million) Percent Travel 5.4% 7.4% 13.5% 11.3% 6.5% 17.4% 4.0% 9.1% 8.9% 4.7% 7.0% 10.3% 9.4% 7.1% 5.0% Total $1,062 $2,614 $3,599 $912 $1,033 $317 $127,765 $2,512 $1,529 $23,132 $3,474 $920 $3,143 $3,766 $175,779 Travel $30 $85 $316 $62 $18 $33 $3,958 $140 $85 $630 $140 $52 $188 $141 $5,878 Percent Travel 2.8% 3.3% 8.8% 6.7% 1.8% 10.4% 3.1% 5.6% 5.6% 2.7% 4.0% 5.6% 6.0% 3.8% 3.3% Source: Dean Runyan Associates, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total and travel-generated employment estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Note: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. Direct travel impact estimates for 1998 through 2014p can be found on the following pages. As noted in the appendix to this report, county level estimates are necessarily less reliable than the statewide estimates. Furthermore, estimates for the smallest counties are less reliable than those for larger counties due to survey sample sizes and other data limitations. For this reason, small changes in year-to-year estimates are less important than longer-term trends. PAGE 34 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES 2014p Arizona County Travel Impacts Travel Spending Total Visitor Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham/Greenlee La Paz Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma Arizona Earnings Related Travel-Generated Impacts Employment Local Taxes State Taxes Total Taxes ($Million) ($Million) ($Million) (jobs) ($Million) ($Million) ($Million) 121 421 1,118 279 91 142 12,683 583 310 2,815 643 307 745 665 20,923 104 389 1,055 267 80 137 9,528 498 285 2,228 554 296 678 604 18,211 30 85 316 62 18 33 3,958 140 85 630 140 52 188 141 5,878 1,530 4,010 11,630 2,580 1,230 1,390 94,300 5,870 3,610 23,410 5,850 2,050 8,170 5,920 171,540 4.3 17.2 45.3 7.2 2.9 4.5 484.0 16.5 11.1 74.3 17.3 7.9 24.7 19.5 736.7 5.2 16.9 46.8 11.7 4.1 5.9 462.1 23.6 13.6 110.8 28.0 11.0 31.2 26.7 797.6 9.5 34.1 92.1 18.9 7.0 10.3 946.1 40.1 24.7 185.1 45.4 18.9 55.9 46.2 1,534.3 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. The sum of county visitor spending is less than statewide visitor spending because a portion of county ground transportation is allocated to “other travel” at the county level. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 35 Arizona County Total Travel Spending, 1998-2014p ($ Millions) Annual Percent Chg. 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014p Apache 83 104 99 101 122 124 133 118 122 127 129 117 121 Cochise 227 266 272 312 341 369 376 353 370 362 350 343 421 Coconino 640 705 667 759 846 887 945 881 941 996 1,050 1,084 1,118 Gila 196 218 214 229 260 269 260 245 257 266 279 280 279 Graham/Greenlee 36 44 40 43 62 66 67 53 61 70 76 87 91 La Paz 105 114 117 122 127 130 133 130 128 139 143 144 142 Maricopa 6,994 8,110 7,562 8,956 10,718 10,936 10,734 9,656 10,507 11,231 11,587 11,932 12,683 Mohave 312 354 381 424 520 510 522 486 530 545 554 579 583 Navajo 195 249 231 233 281 282 308 263 275 289 305 305 310 Pima 1,849 2,127 2,132 2,384 2,722 2,672 2,573 2,401 2,513 2,595 2,764 2,709 2,815 Pinal 222 252 272 321 418 482 527 499 589 640 632 625 643 Santa Cruz 242 281 289 300 282 285 283 295 263 239 271 288 307 Yavapai 375 471 480 513 623 644 655 586 619 658 695 712 745 Yuma 377 439 459 519 586 592 625 612 605 648 655 648 665 Arizona 11,854 13,735 13,216 15,215 17,907 18,247 18,142 16,577 17,781 18,805 19,490 19,855 20,923 13-14p 3.3 22.7 3.1 -0.1 4.6 -1.4 6.3 0.6 1.4 3.9 2.9 6.6 4.5 2.6 5.4 98-14p 2.3 3.9 3.5 2.3 5.9 1.9 3.8 4.0 2.9 2.7 6.9 1.5 4.4 3.6 3.6 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. PAGE 36 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Arizona County Travel-Generated Earnings, 1998-2014p ($ Millions) Annual Percent Chg. Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham/Greenlee La Paz Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma Arizona 1998 20 50 189 50 9 23 2,214 85 48 404 54 44 105 86 3,380 2000 24 56 204 54 10 25 2,568 94 61 463 58 50 129 97 3,895 2002 24 59 195 54 9 26 2,445 104 57 483 65 52 134 104 3,811 2004 23 67 221 57 9 26 2,830 110 56 519 74 54 139 118 4,303 2006 27 73 240 65 14 27 3,311 133 66 581 94 52 166 132 4,981 2007 29 82 265 69 15 28 3,462 134 69 582 112 54 177 135 5,212 2008 31 84 284 66 15 29 3,340 137 76 557 122 54 180 144 5,120 2009 31 81 266 64 12 29 3,169 134 69 538 121 54 163 145 4,876 2010 31 80 268 56 13 28 3,274 125 77 537 127 49 165 143 4,973 2011 31 78 277 55 14 31 3,461 124 77 549 130 44 164 144 5,180 2012 32 76 285 58 15 31 3,579 124 85 605 135 47 174 146 5,393 2013 2014p 29 30 77 85 299 316 61 62 17 18 33 33 3,702 3,958 134 140 86 85 587 630 132 140 49 52 181 188 143 141 5,529 5,878 13-14p 4.6 10.4 5.6 1.3 6.7 1.2 6.9 4.8 -1.3 7.4 5.9 6.5 3.9 -0.8 6.3 98-14p 2.6 3.4 3.3 1.3 4.9 2.2 3.7 3.1 3.6 2.8 6.2 1.0 3.7 3.1 3.5 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 37 Arizona County Travel-Generated Employment, 1998-2014p Annual Percent Chg. 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014p Apache 1,560 1,640 1,540 1,530 1,600 1,590 1,660 1,630 1,640 1,620 1,570 1,480 1,530 Cochise 3,690 3,870 3,800 3,930 4,110 4,380 4,350 4,130 4,050 3,890 3,730 3,700 4,010 Coconino 11,230 11,190 10,240 10,750 10,760 11,100 11,600 10,910 10,860 10,990 11,000 11,430 11,630 Gila 3,160 3,130 3,230 3,050 3,170 3,130 3,010 2,950 2,670 2,680 2,670 2,630 2,580 Graham/Greenlee 40 40 40 40 60 70 70 50 60 70 80 90 90 La Paz 1,510 1,420 1,360 1,290 1,200 1,220 1,220 1,230 1,200 1,320 1,310 1,380 1,390 Maricopa 84,480 88,260 78,370 84,240 90,470 91,230 89,230 83,590 83,100 85,470 87,470 89,680 94,300 Mohave 5,510 5,690 5,960 6,030 7,080 6,520 6,400 6,240 5,900 5,770 5,560 5,750 5,870 Navajo 3,440 3,950 3,430 3,150 3,370 3,330 3,580 3,200 3,520 3,510 3,660 3,690 3,610 Pima 21,320 23,110 23,050 24,230 25,120 23,880 22,230 21,820 21,430 21,620 22,940 22,590 23,410 Pinal 3,160 3,130 3,780 3,980 4,700 4,910 5,270 4,950 5,120 5,440 5,570 5,710 5,850 Santa Cruz 2,440 2,530 2,550 2,560 2,400 2,330 2,270 2,220 2,000 1,840 1,920 2,020 2,050 Yavapai 6,380 7,110 8,140 7,910 8,260 8,290 8,470 7,710 7,490 7,500 7,760 7,920 8,170 Yuma 4,820 4,970 5,600 5,720 6,200 6,070 6,110 6,140 6,070 6,160 6,330 6,130 5,920 Arizona 153,400 160,710 151,880 159,190 169,630 169,240 166,630 157,720 156,040 158,830 162,580 165,310 171,540 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. PAGE 38 13-14p 3.7 8.1 1.8 -1.6 1.9 0.1 5.2 2.1 -1.9 3.6 2.4 1.4 3.1 -3.4 3.8 98-14p -0.1 0.5 0.2 -1.3 4.5 -0.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.6 3.9 -1.1 1.6 1.3 0.7 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Apache County Travel Impacts, 2006-2014p 2006 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 109.1 118.4 108.1 Other Travel* 12.7 14.7 13.8 Total Direct Spending 121.8 133.1 121.9 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 55.6 59.6 49.8 Private Home 31.4 34.8 34.6 Campground 6.5 7.1 7.0 Vacation Home 11.2 12.0 12.1 Day Travel 4.4 4.8 4.6 Destination Spending 109.1 118.4 108.1 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 22.9 26.1 22.2 Food Service 27.5 29.3 28.6 Food Stores 8.6 9.6 9.3 Local Tran. & Gas 15.0 18.7 16.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 8.9 8.9 8.3 Retail Sales 26.2 25.7 23.2 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 109.1 118.4 108.1 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 17.1 20.5 21.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 4.0 4.3 3.9 Retail** 5.4 5.7 4.7 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.7 0.8 0.5 Total Direct Earnings 27.3 31.3 30.7 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 1,020 1,040 1,110 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 250 300 290 Retail** 280 270 210 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 40 50 20 Total Direct Employment 1,600 1,660 1,640 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 5.0 5.4 5.1 State Tax Receipts 5.4 5.7 5.7 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 10.4 11.1 10.8 2011 2012 2013 2014p 109.9 16.6 126.5 111.4 17.2 128.5 100.4 16.4 116.8 104.3 16.4 120.7 46.8 38.0 7.5 12.7 4.9 109.9 46.8 39.0 7.7 13.0 5.0 111.4 37.5 37.7 7.5 12.9 4.7 100.4 39.0 39.7 7.4 13.3 4.9 104.3 21.1 28.7 9.8 19.8 8.2 22.4 0.0 109.9 21.0 29.4 10.0 20.4 8.3 22.3 0.0 111.4 17.8 27.3 9.6 18.7 7.6 19.4 0.0 100.4 18.4 29.1 10.2 18.7 7.9 20.0 0.0 104.3 21.9 3.6 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 30.7 22.8 3.7 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 31.5 20.8 3.4 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 28.8 21.8 3.5 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 30.1 1,130 260 210 0 0 20 1,620 1,100 240 200 0 0 20 1,570 1,050 210 190 0 0 30 1,480 1,090 210 200 0 0 30 1,530 5.0 5.9 10.9 5.0 6.0 11.0 4.3 5.2 9.5 4.3 5.2 9.5 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 39 Cochise County Travel Impacts, 2006-2014p 2006 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 314.7 345.5 342.4 Other Travel* 26.2 30.3 27.5 Total Direct Spending 340.9 375.8 369.8 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 124.3 144.1 144.3 Private Home 57.2 62.9 65.5 Campground 8.6 9.6 9.3 Vacation Home 6.1 6.6 6.6 Day Travel 118.5 122.3 116.6 Destination Spending 314.7 345.5 342.4 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 41.6 52.1 51.9 Food Service 77.8 84.1 88.0 Food Stores 57.0 59.5 55.8 Local Tran. & Gas 40.6 50.8 47.2 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 22.0 22.8 22.9 Retail Sales 75.7 76.1 76.5 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 314.7 345.5 342.4 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 39.5 48.8 48.8 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 10.7 11.6 10.9 Retail** 20.1 21.1 18.7 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 2.4 2.7 1.7 Total Direct Earnings 72.6 84.3 80.1 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 2,390 2,540 2,470 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 700 810 760 Retail** 890 870 750 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 120 120 70 Total Direct Employment 4,110 4,350 4,050 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 14.9 16.6 16.8 State Tax Receipts 14.6 15.5 16.4 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 29.5 32.1 33.2 2011 2012 2013 2014p 328.7 32.8 361.5 316.6 33.2 349.8 311.4 32.0 343.3 389.1 32.0 421.1 131.7 69.1 10.0 6.9 111.0 328.7 111.8 68.7 10.2 7.1 118.8 316.6 103.0 68.3 10.0 7.0 123.0 311.4 159.6 72.3 9.9 7.2 140.1 389.1 47.2 83.4 52.7 53.5 21.7 70.2 0.0 328.7 40.3 80.9 57.2 53.0 20.1 65.1 0.0 316.6 35.9 81.4 59.9 51.1 19.5 63.5 0.0 311.4 56.1 101.2 68.5 57.4 24.0 81.9 0.0 389.1 48.9 9.7 17.4 0.0 0.0 1.7 77.7 48.3 9.8 16.7 0.0 0.0 1.7 76.5 48.8 10.0 16.5 0.0 0.0 1.8 77.1 53.3 9.9 20.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 85.1 2,420 700 700 0 0 70 3,890 2,370 650 660 0 0 60 3,730 2,340 650 650 0 0 70 3,700 2,520 630 780 0 0 70 4,010 15.8 16.5 32.3 14.6 15.8 30.4 13.9 14.8 28.7 17.2 16.9 34.1 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 40 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Coconino County Travel Impacts, 2006-2014p 2006 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 813.2 902.8 903.7 Other Travel* 32.6 42.0 37.8 Total Direct Spending 845.8 944.8 941.5 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 537.9 602.3 600.0 Private Home 52.0 53.5 58.1 Campground 19.8 24.7 23.9 Vacation Home 29.3 31.6 31.7 Day Travel 174.1 190.6 189.9 Destination Spending 813.2 902.8 903.7 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 240.4 276.7 271.3 Food Service 185.3 205.6 214.8 Food Stores 42.0 48.4 48.1 Local Tran. & Gas 83.8 108.6 100.1 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 133.7 139.8 138.0 Retail Sales 113.4 116.0 118.0 Visitor Air Tran. 14.6 7.7 13.4 Destination Spending 813.2 902.8 903.7 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 142.0 174.5 162.3 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 59.9 65.8 69.5 Retail** 25.0 27.8 24.4 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 7.6 5.8 5.8 Other Travel* 5.4 10.5 5.8 Total Direct Earnings 240.0 284.3 267.8 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 6,290 6,910 6,510 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 3,140 3,170 3,140 Retail** 1,000 1,090 940 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 150 120 110 Other Travel* 180 300 160 Total Direct Employment 10,760 11,600 10,860 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 35.3 41.4 41.6 State Tax Receipts 37.9 41.4 42.9 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 73.2 82.7 84.6 2011 2012 2013 2014p 952.3 993.7 1,024.1 44.0 56.6 60.4 996.3 1,050.3 1,084.5 1,054.8 63.2 1,118.0 633.4 62.2 25.2 33.2 198.3 952.3 664.9 691.7 63.2 63.2 26.4 25.9 34.0 34.4 205.3 208.9 993.7 1,024.1 717.1 65.5 25.5 35.4 211.4 1,054.8 289.1 219.9 50.5 120.4 139.0 119.6 13.7 952.3 304.5 320.6 230.8 240.4 52.1 53.3 126.9 126.0 142.9 145.8 122.8 124.9 13.7 13.2 993.7 1,024.1 339.8 248.5 55.2 122.9 147.8 125.3 15.5 1,054.8 162.1 77.3 25.1 0.0 6.4 6.5 277.3 170.0 74.5 25.1 0.0 5.5 10.2 285.3 179.4 76.9 25.3 0.0 5.4 11.9 298.8 190.8 79.4 25.8 0.0 6.5 13.1 315.6 6,530 6,620 6,820 3,170 3,000 3,210 970 960 950 0 0 0 120 100 100 200 310 350 10,990 11,000 11,430 7,010 3,180 940 0 120 380 11,630 43.6 47.3 90.8 44.6 49.1 93.7 45.0 47.5 92.4 45.3 46.8 92.1 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 41 Gila County Travel Impacts, 2006-2014p 2006 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 250.5 248.6 246.3 Other Travel* 9.9 11.5 10.6 Total Direct Spending 260.4 260.1 257.0 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 55.5 42.6 40.7 Private Home 34.8 37.6 39.0 Campground 11.5 12.8 12.4 Vacation Home 12.7 13.6 13.4 Day Travel 136.0 142.0 140.9 Destination Spending 250.5 248.6 246.3 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 21.0 18.0 16.9 Food Service 43.3 43.2 45.4 Food Stores 18.6 20.2 20.1 Local Tran. & Gas 27.3 32.6 30.3 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 106.0 102.2 100.5 Retail Sales 34.4 32.4 33.1 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 250.5 248.6 246.3 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 22.7 23.4 22.4 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 32.8 32.8 25.2 Retail** 8.7 9.0 8.0 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.6 0.8 0.5 Total Direct Earnings 64.8 65.9 56.1 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 1,280 1,190 1,120 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 1,480 1,390 1,200 Retail** 370 380 330 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 30 40 20 Total Direct Employment 3,170 3,010 2,670 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 7.9 7.6 7.3 State Tax Receipts 11.8 11.3 11.4 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 19.7 18.9 18.7 2011 2012 2013 2014p 253.5 12.3 265.8 266.7 12.5 279.2 267.2 12.5 279.7 267.0 12.5 279.4 39.6 41.5 13.4 14.0 145.2 253.5 47.4 42.7 13.7 14.3 148.6 266.7 50.3 42.3 12.1 14.4 148.1 267.2 49.9 42.1 11.9 14.8 148.2 267.0 16.5 46.1 21.1 36.2 100.3 33.3 0.0 253.5 18.8 49.0 21.7 38.2 104.7 34.3 0.0 266.7 19.4 50.0 21.5 36.8 105.3 34.2 0.0 267.2 20.1 50.7 22.0 35.4 104.9 33.8 0.0 267.0 22.3 23.9 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 54.7 24.7 24.6 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 57.9 26.7 25.5 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 60.8 27.5 25.5 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 61.5 1,110 1,220 330 0 0 20 2,680 1,170 1,160 320 0 0 20 2,670 1,230 1,040 330 0 0 20 2,630 1,270 970 330 0 0 20 2,580 7.2 11.9 19.1 7.5 12.4 19.9 7.5 12.1 19.5 7.2 11.7 18.9 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 42 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Graham & Greenlee Counties Travel Impacts, 2006-2014p 2006 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 54.0 57.7 52.5 Other Travel* 7.8 9.8 9.0 Total Direct Spending 61.9 67.5 61.5 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 27.1 27.1 21.3 Private Home 18.9 21.7 22.5 Campground 1.8 2.0 1.9 Vacation Home 0.7 0.8 0.8 Day Travel 5.5 6.0 5.9 Destination Spending 54.0 57.7 52.5 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 9.1 9.9 7.6 Food Service 14.5 15.4 15.2 Food Stores 4.6 5.2 5.1 Local Tran. & Gas 8.2 10.3 9.4 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 4.4 4.4 4.1 Retail Sales 13.3 12.5 11.2 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 54.0 57.7 52.5 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 7.9 9.2 7.6 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 2.4 2.5 2.4 Retail** 2.9 3.0 2.4 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.5 0.7 0.4 Total Direct Earnings 13.7 15.3 12.8 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 630 640 500 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 410 430 380 Retail** 130 120 100 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 30 30 20 Total Direct Employment 1,200 1,230 1,000 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 2.1 2.2 2.0 State Tax Receipts 3.0 3.1 3.0 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 5.1 5.4 5.0 2011 2012 2013 2014p 59.5 10.8 70.3 64.5 11.1 75.6 76.4 11.0 87.5 80.5 11.0 91.5 25.0 25.0 2.0 0.9 6.6 59.5 29.6 25.1 2.1 0.9 6.8 64.5 40.6 25.5 2.1 0.9 7.4 76.4 43.9 26.0 2.0 0.9 7.7 80.5 8.8 16.6 5.6 11.8 4.4 12.4 0.0 59.5 10.6 17.7 5.7 12.4 4.6 13.5 0.0 64.5 15.2 20.5 6.1 13.1 5.2 16.3 0.0 76.4 15.8 22.1 6.5 13.2 5.5 17.5 0.0 80.5 8.2 2.5 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 13.9 9.1 2.7 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 15.0 10.7 2.8 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 17.1 11.4 3.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 18.3 520 380 110 0 0 20 1,030 570 390 110 0 0 20 1,090 660 410 120 0 0 20 1,210 670 410 130 0 0 20 1,230 2.2 3.4 5.6 2.4 3.7 6.1 2.9 4.0 6.9 2.9 4.1 7.0 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 43 La Paz County Travel Impacts, 2006-2014p 2006 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 123.0 129.2 123.9 Other Travel* 3.8 4.3 3.9 Total Direct Spending 126.8 133.5 127.8 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 8.4 6.6 3.9 Private Home 13.2 14.5 14.3 Campground 28.6 31.2 30.4 Vacation Home 15.8 16.7 16.3 Day Travel 57.0 60.1 59.0 Destination Spending 123.0 129.2 123.9 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 10.4 10.1 8.5 Food Service 21.4 22.5 22.8 Food Stores 11.2 12.4 12.1 Local Tran. & Gas 15.3 18.9 17.1 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 46.6 47.7 45.9 Retail Sales 18.0 17.6 17.5 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 123.0 129.2 123.9 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 8.9 9.7 10.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 13.4 14.0 13.6 Retail** 4.5 4.8 4.2 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.2 0.2 0.1 Total Direct Earnings 27.0 28.9 28.5 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 520 520 560 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 470 480 450 Retail** 200 210 180 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 10 10 10 Total Direct Employment 1,200 1,220 1,200 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 3.9 4.3 4.2 State Tax Receipts 5.4 5.5 5.6 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 9.4 9.7 9.9 2011 2012 2013 2014p 134.7 4.7 139.4 138.0 4.8 142.8 139.4 4.6 144.0 137.4 4.6 142.0 6.9 16.4 31.9 17.0 62.4 134.7 8.3 16.3 32.5 17.5 63.4 138.0 9.9 16.4 31.9 17.6 63.6 139.4 8.8 15.9 31.4 18.1 63.2 137.4 9.6 24.6 13.1 21.3 47.8 18.4 0.0 134.7 10.2 25.4 13.3 22.0 48.5 18.6 0.0 138.0 10.8 26.2 13.3 21.5 48.8 18.7 0.0 139.4 10.8 26.3 13.5 20.4 48.1 18.3 0.0 137.4 12.6 14.2 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 31.3 12.5 14.4 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 31.4 13.3 14.8 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 32.6 13.7 14.9 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 33.0 650 470 190 0 0 10 1,320 650 480 180 0 0 10 1,310 700 500 180 0 0 10 1,380 700 500 170 0 0 10 1,390 4.6 6.2 10.8 4.6 6.3 10.9 4.7 6.2 10.9 4.5 5.9 10.3 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 44 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Maricopa County Travel Impacts, 2006-2014p 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 8,301 8,164 8,106 8,586 8,750 8,974 Other Travel* 2,418 2,571 2,401 2,645 2,837 2,959 Total Direct Spending 10,718 10,734 10,507 11,231 11,587 11,932 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 4,731 4,444 4,269 4,535 4,657 4,817 Private Home 2,071 2,155 2,254 2,369 2,379 2,449 Campground 226 240 231 243 245 217 Vacation Home 231 254 258 269 275 281 Day Travel 1,042 1,069 1,093 1,170 1,194 1,210 Destination Spending 8,301 8,164 8,106 8,586 8,750 8,974 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 1,706 1,638 1,372 1,479 1,525 1,577 Food Service 1,719 1,712 1,829 1,917 1,983 2,055 Food Stores 252 268 271 289 294 296 Local Tran. & Gas 975 1,037 1,038 1,175 1,204 1,209 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 1,130 1,074 1,083 1,116 1,131 1,148 Retail Sales 1,252 1,154 1,201 1,246 1,261 1,278 Visitor Air Tran. 1,266 1,281 1,311 1,363 1,353 1,411 Destination Spending 8,301 8,164 8,106 8,586 8,750 8,974 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 1,123 1,196 1,154 1,215 1,248 1,311 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 509 506 510 517 556 581 Retail** 217 213 197 209 206 205 Ground Tran. 107 102 109 117 119 120 Visitor Air Tran. 565 543 564 612 601 598 Other Travel* 789 782 740 792 850 887 Total Direct Earnings 3,311 3,340 3,274 3,461 3,579 3,702 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 41.8 41,990 40,070 41.4 41.7 43.4 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 16.6 16,780 15,720 16.0 16.5 17.4 Retail** 6.6 6,480 5,900 5.9 5.9 6.0 Ground Tran. 2.9 2,770 2,780 2.9 3.0 3.0 Visitor Air Tran. 7.8 7,470 6,770 7.0 7.2 7.0 Other Travel* 14.8 13,730 11,860 12.2 13.2 12.9 Total Direct Employment 90.5 89,230 83,100 85.5 87.5 89.7 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 462.7 450.1 442.1 466.7 469.8 472.1 State Tax Receipts 417.2 402.1 419.1 462.0 474.0 467.9 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 879.9 852.3 861.1 928.7 943.9 940.0 2014p 9,528 3,155 12,683 5,182 2,563 233 289 1,261 9,528 1,737 2,189 315 1,248 1,197 1,321 1,520 9,528 1,383 636 217 127 632 963 3,958 44.8 18.9 6.2 3.1 7.3 13.9 94.3 484.0 462.1 946.1 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations, resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 45 Mohave County Travel Impacts, 2006-2014p 2006 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 468.4 450.5 460.5 Other Travel* 51.2 71.1 69.2 Total Direct Spending 519.6 521.6 529.7 All Overnight Hotel, Motel 145.7 112.4 119.0 Private Home 142.0 153.7 155.8 Campground 19.1 21.2 20.5 Vacation Home 35.7 38.3 37.7 Day 126.0 124.8 127.6 Destination Spending 468.4 450.5 460.5 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 71.9 57.8 55.3 Food Service 121.7 118.5 128.8 Food Stores 40.2 42.5 43.0 Local Tran. & Gas 68.3 79.5 75.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 89.3 82.3 84.3 Retail Sales 77.0 69.8 73.6 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 468.4 450.5 460.5 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 63.3 62.6 62.8 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 42.3 41.0 31.8 Retail** 19.9 20.0 18.0 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 7.6 12.9 12.5 Total Direct Earnings 133.1 136.5 125.1 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 3,550 3,200 3,220 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 2,540 2,030 1,630 Retail** 710 680 630 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 290 490 430 Total Direct Employment 7,080 6,400 5,900 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 17.6 16.5 16.6 State Tax Receipts 23.3 22.0 23.2 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 40.9 38.5 39.8 2011 2012 2013 2014p 466.3 78.2 544.5 473.4 80.4 553.8 496.4 83.0 579.4 497.8 85.1 582.9 119.5 157.3 22.1 39.4 128.0 466.3 120.0 160.7 22.6 40.4 129.8 473.4 124.0 173.6 22.2 40.6 136.1 496.4 132.0 167.7 21.8 41.8 134.4 497.8 56.2 126.3 43.4 87.0 81.7 71.6 0.0 466.3 56.5 129.3 44.0 89.7 82.0 71.8 0.0 473.4 58.1 138.7 46.7 92.1 85.7 75.1 0.0 496.4 63.5 140.5 47.0 87.6 85.4 73.8 0.0 497.8 64.9 29.1 17.7 0.0 0.0 12.8 124.5 61.3 32.0 17.3 0.0 0.0 13.1 123.8 66.8 34.5 18.0 0.0 0.0 14.6 133.9 71.8 35.1 17.9 0.0 0.0 15.5 140.3 3,240 1,500 610 0 0 430 5,770 2,950 1,580 600 0 0 430 5,560 3,110 1,590 620 0 0 430 5,750 3,280 1,520 610 0 0 450 5,870 16.5 24.2 40.7 16.3 24.3 40.6 16.7 24.5 41.1 16.5 23.6 40.1 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 46 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Navajo County Travel Impacts, 2006-2014p 2006 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 260.0 285.6 254.5 Other Travel* 20.7 22.9 20.9 Total Direct Spending 280.6 308.5 275.4 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 128.5 141.3 114.3 Private Home 48.1 53.9 52.3 Campground 16.4 17.2 16.7 Vacation Home 41.7 45.6 45.4 Day Travel 25.2 27.7 25.8 Destination Spending 260.0 285.6 254.5 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 52.9 60.4 50.1 Food Service 63.4 69.3 65.5 Food Stores 18.0 20.2 19.1 Local Tran. & Gas 31.4 39.7 33.9 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 30.9 32.0 29.6 Retail Sales 63.4 64.0 56.3 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 260.0 285.6 254.5 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 40.3 48.7 48.0 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 12.3 13.3 18.0 Retail** 11.8 12.7 10.1 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 1.5 1.3 0.8 Total Direct Earnings 65.9 76.0 76.8 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 2,130 2,330 2,250 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 670 680 810 Retail** 490 510 410 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 80 70 40 Total Direct Employment 3,370 3,580 3,520 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 10.5 11.6 10.9 State Tax Receipts 12.7 13.5 13.2 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 23.2 25.1 24.1 2011 2012 2013 2014p 264.5 24.9 289.4 279.7 25.4 305.1 280.7 24.7 305.3 285.0 24.6 309.5 115.2 57.0 17.6 47.4 27.3 264.5 128.1 58.4 16.4 48.6 28.2 279.7 130.7 57.6 15.2 49.1 28.1 280.7 132.5 58.7 14.7 50.6 28.5 285.0 50.6 66.8 20.1 40.8 29.8 56.3 0.0 264.5 55.2 71.0 20.5 42.8 30.3 59.8 0.0 279.7 57.0 72.2 20.4 41.4 29.9 59.8 0.0 280.7 57.9 75.0 21.2 40.4 30.2 60.2 0.0 285.0 47.7 18.4 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 77.3 52.3 21.9 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.8 85.5 53.4 21.8 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 86.4 53.7 20.2 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.8 85.3 2,250 810 410 0 0 40 3,510 2,300 900 420 0 0 40 3,660 2,330 900 410 0 0 40 3,690 2,340 820 420 0 0 40 3,610 11.0 14.1 25.0 11.7 14.9 26.6 11.4 14.1 25.6 11.1 13.6 24.7 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 47 Pima County Travel Impacts, 2006-2014p 2006 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 2,241 2,043 2,022 Other Travel* 481 530 491 Total Direct Spending 2,722 2,573 2,513 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 1,074 903 895 Private Home 423 451 452 Campground 56 36 29 Vacation Home 43 47 47 Day Travel 645 605 598 Destination Spending 2,241 2,043 2,022 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 420 349 316 Food Service 526 475 508 Food Stores 134 132 129 Local Tran. & Gas 294 279 278 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 188 173 174 Retail Sales 468 411 413 Visitor Air Tran. 210 223 204 Destination Spending 2,241 2,043 2,022 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 319 304 297 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 80 76 77 Retail** 86 79 72 Ground Tran. 30 25 27 Visitor Air Tran. 10 12 11 Other Travel* 56 61 52 Total Direct Earnings 581 557 537 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 14,590 12,700 12,410 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 4,550 3,860 4,090 Retail** 3,110 2,870 2,560 Ground Tran. 840 690 700 Visitor Air Tran. 220 250 210 Other Travel* 1,820 1,860 1,450 Total Direct Employment 25,120 22,230 21,430 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 82.1 74.5 73.9 State Tax Receipts 113.3 101.1 105.7 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 195.4 175.6 179.6 2011 2012 2013 2014p 2,051 544 2,595 2,130 635 2,764 2,138 572 2,709 2,228 587 2,815 908 467 31 49 595 2,051 946 467 33 51 633 2,130 951 460 32 51 644 2,138 992 477 31 53 675 2,228 320 514 131 306 175 401 203 2,051 330 542 138 321 178 423 198 2,130 332 552 140 318 177 428 190 2,138 348 580 150 322 182 445 202 2,228 309 75 72 28 10 54 549 334 76 73 29 9 84 605 337 75 73 29 7 65 587 359 83 77 30 10 70 630 12,710 13,320 13,340 4,070 4,080 4,060 2,540 2,520 2,500 710 740 740 200 180 130 1,400 2,110 1,820 21,620 22,940 22,590 13,830 4,300 2,630 750 170 1,730 23,410 74.8 112.3 187.1 77.4 118.2 195.6 74.0 112.9 186.9 74.3 110.8 185.1 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations, resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 48 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Pinal County Travel Impacts, 2006-2014p 2006 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 368.1 456.2 514.6 Other Travel* 50.1 70.9 74.6 Total Direct Spending 418.2 527.2 589.1 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 33.8 37.1 34.7 Private Home 156.2 199.9 241.3 Campground 43.3 48.2 46.6 Vacation Home 52.4 67.4 75.3 Day Travel 82.4 103.6 116.7 Destination Spending 368.1 456.2 514.6 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 36.7 42.3 40.4 Food Service 111.7 140.1 168.1 Food Stores 33.3 42.3 47.4 Local Tran. & Gas 51.8 73.7 76.4 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 55.9 66.2 74.6 Retail Sales 78.7 91.6 107.6 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 368.1 456.2 514.6 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 47.2 62.9 73.4 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 27.4 34.1 29.3 Retail** 16.9 21.0 21.3 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 2.8 4.0 2.7 Total Direct Earnings 94.4 122.1 126.8 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 2,510 2,990 3,060 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 1,390 1,270 1,140 Retail** 670 820 780 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 140 200 130 Total Direct Employment 4,700 5,270 5,120 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 12.6 15.5 17.8 State Tax Receipts 19.6 23.5 28.0 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 32.2 39.0 45.8 2011 2012 2013 2014p 551.0 88.7 639.7 540.1 91.5 631.6 535.5 89.3 624.7 554.1 89.0 643.1 40.0 256.1 50.2 78.7 126.1 551.0 37.8 246.2 51.4 80.6 124.0 540.1 32.5 247.5 50.5 81.6 123.4 535.5 33.1 260.1 49.6 84.1 127.2 554.1 43.4 175.8 50.5 93.4 76.5 111.4 0.0 551.0 43.2 173.0 49.5 93.1 74.2 107.1 0.0 540.1 41.4 174.7 49.6 90.1 73.7 105.9 0.0 535.5 42.7 184.7 52.2 89.4 76.3 108.9 0.0 554.1 76.4 28.7 22.4 0.0 0.0 2.6 130.1 80.3 31.4 21.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 135.4 77.4 31.5 20.6 0.0 0.0 2.7 132.2 78.2 37.4 21.5 0.0 0.0 2.8 139.9 3,250 1,230 830 0 0 130 5,440 3,350 1,330 770 0 0 120 5,570 3,540 1,280 770 0 0 130 5,710 3,490 1,430 800 0 0 130 5,850 18.6 30.2 48.8 18.2 29.9 48.0 17.3 28.6 45.9 17.3 28.0 45.4 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 49 Santa Cruz County Travel Impacts, 2006-2014p 2006 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 273.5 272.9 253.6 Other Travel* 8.4 10.1 9.1 Total Direct Spending 282.0 283.0 262.7 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 36.3 39.0 36.2 Private Home 29.0 33.1 34.9 Campground 1.1 1.3 1.2 Vacation Home 1.2 1.3 1.3 Day Travel 206.0 198.2 180.0 Destination Spending 273.5 272.9 253.6 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 15.6 16.9 15.5 Food Service 39.6 41.1 41.2 Food Stores 91.8 92.9 83.7 Local Tran. & Gas 19.1 23.2 20.7 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 9.1 9.3 9.1 Retail Sales 98.5 89.5 83.3 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 273.5 272.9 253.6 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 18.5 21.1 20.8 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 4.7 5.1 4.2 Retail** 28.0 27.3 23.6 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.6 0.7 0.3 Total Direct Earnings 51.8 54.1 48.9 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 1,070 1,000 970 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 330 340 290 Retail** 970 900 720 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 30 30 20 Total Direct Employment 2,400 2,270 2,000 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 8.4 8.4 8.0 State Tax Receipts 10.9 10.6 10.5 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 19.3 19.0 18.5 2011 2012 2013 2014p 227.9 10.9 238.8 259.8 11.1 270.9 277.4 10.7 288.1 296.5 10.6 307.1 28.0 36.2 1.3 1.3 161.1 227.9 31.0 38.0 1.4 1.4 188.2 259.8 35.1 37.7 1.3 1.3 201.9 277.4 32.7 36.6 1.3 1.4 224.5 296.5 11.9 36.9 76.1 22.2 8.0 72.8 0.0 227.9 12.8 41.4 88.5 24.9 8.5 83.6 0.0 259.8 14.0 44.7 95.2 25.4 9.0 89.0 0.0 277.4 13.4 46.4 107.1 24.9 8.5 96.1 0.0 296.5 18.4 4.0 20.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 43.6 19.1 4.3 23.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 46.8 19.7 4.4 24.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 48.7 20.7 4.2 26.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 51.8 870 300 650 0 0 20 1,840 900 290 710 0 0 20 1,920 930 330 740 0 0 20 2,020 960 290 780 0 0 20 2,050 7.0 10.0 16.9 7.7 11.1 18.7 7.9 11.1 19.0 7.9 11.0 18.9 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 50 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Yavapai County Travel Impacts, 2006-2014p 2006 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 568.9 594.6 565.9 Other Travel* 54.3 60.0 53.5 Total Direct Spending 623.1 654.5 619.4 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 230.8 234.4 209.7 Private Home 69.6 77.0 78.3 Campground 11.8 13.0 12.6 Vacation Home 21.9 24.2 23.9 Day Travel 234.7 246.0 241.4 Destination Spending 568.9 594.6 565.9 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 114.9 121.3 104.4 Food Service 109.4 113.7 115.7 Food Stores 37.8 41.5 40.6 Local Tran. & Gas 60.2 73.6 66.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 165.5 166.3 160.4 Retail Sales 80.6 77.8 77.5 Visitor Air Tran. 0.5 0.4 0.8 Destination Spending 568.9 594.6 565.9 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 73.7 83.8 73.8 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 66.4 68.9 68.0 Retail** 18.1 19.1 16.5 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.2 0.3 0.3 Other Travel* 8.1 8.3 6.1 Total Direct Earnings 166.4 180.4 164.6 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 3,290 3,530 3,050 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 3,880 3,850 3,550 Retail** 750 780 650 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 10 10 Other Travel* 340 310 240 Total Direct Employment 8,260 8,470 7,490 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 22.3 23.3 22.3 State Tax Receipts 27.9 28.4 28.3 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 50.1 51.7 50.6 2011 2012 2013 2014p 597.1 60.6 657.7 632.3 62.9 695.2 648.7 63.7 712.4 678.1 66.5 744.7 221.3 85.3 13.2 25.0 252.3 597.1 245.6 87.6 13.8 25.6 259.8 632.3 259.3 87.7 13.5 26.1 262.1 648.7 280.1 89.4 14.7 26.9 267.1 678.1 109.7 120.0 43.1 81.0 163.0 79.4 1.0 597.1 122.8 127.2 44.5 85.7 168.4 81.9 1.8 632.3 131.1 132.5 45.3 84.9 170.9 83.0 1.0 648.7 144.8 139.9 47.6 84.4 176.0 84.7 0.8 678.1 78.0 63.2 17.1 0.0 0.3 5.7 164.3 86.1 64.6 17.2 0.0 0.4 5.9 174.1 93.1 63.5 17.2 0.0 0.3 6.7 180.8 100.7 61.1 17.8 0.0 0.3 7.9 187.8 3,190 3,420 670 0 10 210 7,500 3,440 3,440 670 0 10 200 7,760 3,590 3,470 670 0 10 190 7,920 3,840 3,460 690 0 10 180 8,170 22.9 30.4 53.2 24.1 32.0 56.0 24.3 31.4 55.7 24.7 31.2 55.9 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 51 Yuma County Travel Impacts, 2006-2014p 2006 2008 2010 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 541.8 569.9 552.8 Other Travel* 44.5 54.7 52.6 Total Direct Spending 586.3 624.6 605.4 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 134.5 140.2 130.3 Private Home 68.4 78.6 79.8 Campground 64.5 72.5 74.8 Vacation Home 39.5 43.7 44.5 Day Travel 234.9 234.9 223.5 Destination Spending 541.8 569.9 552.8 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 63.2 66.8 60.1 Food Service 97.4 103.8 107.3 Food Stores 68.8 72.9 69.1 Local Tran. & Gas 54.7 68.4 63.1 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 115.8 121.1 120.9 Retail Sales 132.4 124.4 120.1 Visitor Air Tran. 9.6 12.4 12.3 Destination Spending 541.8 569.9 552.8 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 50.4 58.1 62.4 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 47.2 50.7 50.0 Retail** 31.0 31.5 27.5 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.2 0.3 0.7 Other Travel* 2.6 3.4 2.8 Total Direct Earnings 131.5 143.9 143.3 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 2,650 2,800 2,860 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 2,280 2,060 2,140 Retail** 1,150 1,110 960 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 10 10 10 Other Travel* 110 130 100 Total Direct Employment 6,200 6,110 6,070 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 19.9 20.4 20.4 State Tax Receipts 25.3 25.8 26.8 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 45.2 46.2 47.2 2011 2012 2013 2014p 587.7 60.7 648.5 593.2 62.1 655.4 588.2 59.7 647.9 603.9 60.8 664.7 151.2 90.3 79.2 46.5 220.6 587.7 149.2 87.5 72.9 47.6 236.0 593.2 132.5 86.3 78.7 47.8 242.9 588.2 136.2 90.7 69.7 49.2 258.0 603.9 67.3 114.7 69.1 79.0 129.2 116.1 12.3 587.7 65.1 116.2 73.4 79.2 124.1 123.5 11.7 593.2 60.0 115.4 76.5 76.6 121.4 125.8 12.5 588.2 61.6 120.7 82.4 74.4 118.6 132.6 13.6 603.9 62.9 50.3 27.1 0.0 0.8 3.0 144.1 63.6 51.9 27.7 0.0 0.3 2.3 145.8 64.7 47.3 27.9 0.0 0.3 2.4 142.6 65.2 43.7 29.7 0.0 0.3 2.6 141.4 2,910 2,190 930 0 20 100 6,160 2,840 2,480 920 0 10 90 6,330 2,900 2,220 920 0 10 90 6,130 2,860 2,000 970 0 10 90 5,920 21.0 29.0 50.0 20.9 29.2 50.1 19.8 27.7 47.6 19.5 26.7 46.2 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 52 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES APPENDICES APPENDIX A 2014 TRAVEL IMPACT ESTIMATES APPENDIX B KEY TERMS AND DEFINITIONS APPENDIX C REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACT MODEL APPENDIX D TRAVEL INDUSTRY ACCOUNTS APPENDIX E ARIZONA EARNINGS AND EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY SECTOR APPENDIX F INDUSTRY GROUPS DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 53 APPENDIX A 2014 TRAVEL IMPACT ESTIMATES This appendix provides a brief overview of the methodology, terminology and limitations of the travel impact and visitor volume estimates. DIRECT IMPACTS The estimates of the direct impacts associated with traveler spending in Arizona were produced using the Regional Travel Impact Model (RTIM) developed by Dean Runyan Associates. The input data used to detail the economic impacts of the Arizona travel industry were gathered from various local, state and federal sources. Travel impacts consist of estimates of travel spending and the employment, earnings, and state and local taxes generated by this spending. These estimates are also broken out by type of traveler accommodation and by the type of business in which the expenditures occur. GROUND TRANSPORTATION ESTIMATES County and regional level estimates of destination or visitor spending include only a portion of the ground transportation expenditures for travel that occur in the county. The remaining portion is included in “other travel” as it represents transportation costs for travel to another destination within Arizona. State level estimates of visitor spending include all of these expenditures for ground transportation. SECONDARY (INDIRECT AND INDUCED) IMPACTS Direct impacts are reported for all counties within Arizona. Secondary employment and earnings impacts over and above direct impacts are reported at the state level only for the year 2013. These indirect and induced impacts are generated from the direct impacts produced by the RTIM, discussed above, and an input-output model of the Arizona economy prepared by the Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. Indirect impacts represent the purchases of goods and services from other firms by businesses that directly receive expenditures from travelers. Hotels, for example, purchase maintenance services from independent contractors. Induced impacts represent the purchase of goods and services by employees whose earnings are in part derived from travel expenditures. The sum of the direct, indirect and induced impacts equals the total impact of all spending by visitors in the state. The “multiplier” refers to the ratio of the total impacts to the direct impacts for employment or earnings. A description of the methodology used to estimate secondary impacts can be found in the Appendix. PAGE 54 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES Preliminary estimates for 2014 were prepared at the state, regional and county level. These estimates take advantage of the most current available data. However, because full-year data was not available in all cases, these estimates are subject to subsequent revision as additional information relating to travel and its economic impact in 2014 becomes available. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT An estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Arizona travel industry based on the RTIM direct travel impacts is also provided in this report. The GDP of an industry is equal to gross output (sales or receipts) minus intermediate inputs (the goods and services purchased from other industries). GDP is always less than output or sales because GDP measures only the “value added” of an industry and does not include the cost of the inputs that are also necessary to produce a good or service. GDP is a useful concept because it permits comparisons of the economic contributions of different industries. The relationship between spending and gross domestic product is illustrated in the figure below. Examples of inputs are the food or accounting services that restaurants purchase from suppliers. “Goods resold” are the commodities that retail establishments purchase from manufacturers or wholesale trade businesses and resell with a markup. These inputs or goods are not counted as the GDP of the restaurant or retail industry because their value was created in other industries (agriculture, accounting, manufacturing). Relationship Between Spending and Gross Domestic Product Inputs/Goods Resold Operating Surplus Indirect Taxes Labor Income Spending DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES GDP PAGE 55 It is for this reason that “travel spending” – as measured from surveys of visitors – is not the best measure of the travel industry’s real economic contribution. This is because some visitor spending is actually counted as the GDP of other industries (e.g., agriculture, accounting, manufacturing). Furthermore, these other industries may or may not be located within the geographic area of interest. If the farm were located within the region of interest, then the GDP of the local farm would be included as an indirect or secondary effect. If not (e.g., a manufacturing firm in another state or country), then that portion of GDP is not counted. The preceding graph also shows the three main components of GDP. For most industries, labor income (essentially equivalent to earnings in this report) is the primary component of GDP. This is true of the travel industry. A second component is the tax payments that businesses make to government, such as sales, excise and property taxes. In the case of excise taxes, businesses are essentially a collection agency for the government. The final component, operating surplus, represents the income and payments (e.g., dividends, interest) to other stakeholders of the firm. The concept of GDP also illustrates that with small geographic units of analysis (e.g., counties), earnings, employment, and tax revenues are the best measures of the economic value of the travel industry to the local economy. Small area measures of GDP are less reliable and much of the operating surplus may leak out of the local economy anyway. Indirect effects are also generally less in smaller economies. COMPARISON WITH OTHER EXPORT-ORIENTED INDUSTRIES Export-oriented industries are those industries that primarily market their products and services to other regions, states or nations. Agriculture, extractive industries, and manufacturing are the best examples of goods producing export-oriented industries. Many professional services (e.g., engineering, architecture, law) are also traded in export markets. The travel industry is also an export-oriented industry because goods and services are sold to visitors, rather than residents. The travel industry injects money into the local economy, as do the exports of other industries. Exports are not necessarily more important than locally traded goods and services. However, diverse export-oriented industries in any economy are a source of strength – in part because they generate income that contributes to the development of other local services and amenities. Such industries characterize the “comparative advantage” of the local economy within larger regional, national and global markets. For the purposes of this report, we have defined five major export-oriented industries in Arizona. PAGE 56 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES  Aerospace. This industry comprises establishments engaged in aerospace product and parts manufacturing.  Microelectronics. This industry includes establishments that manufacture computers, communications equipment and similar products and components that utilize integrated circuits. This is the largest manufacturing subsector (NAICS 334).  Food. The food group encompasses parts of two major industry categories: agriculture, and food manufacturing or processing.  Mining. This industry is comprised primarily of copper mining companies.  Travel. A portion of the transportation, retail, leisure, and hospitality industries as estimated in this report. Comparisons with these industries are more meaningful for the travel industry than comparisons with non-export oriented industries (e.g., health care, retail trade, government) where industry growth is largely a function of population and demographic factors. See Appendix C for a list of Arizona industries. INTERPRETATION OF IMPACT ESTIMATES Users of this report should be aware of several issues regarding the interpretation of the impact estimates contained herein:  The estimates contained in this report are based on the most current data available and supersede all previous estimates of travel impacts.  The estimates in this report are expressed in current dollars unless otherwise noted.  The employment estimates in this report are estimates of the total number of full and part-time jobs directly generated by travel spending, rather than the number of individuals employed. Both payroll and self-employment are included in these estimates. Caution should therefore be used in comparing these estimates with other employment data series.  In general, estimates of small geographic areas (e.g., rural counties) are less reliable than estimates for regions or metropolitan counties. Trend analysis and comparisons of counties with relatively low levels of travel related economic activity should therefore be interpreted cautiously.  The estimates of travel impacts published in this report will necessarily differ somewhat from estimates generated from different models, methodologies and data sources. Nonetheless, it should be emphasized that all credible estimates of direct travel impacts at the state level, including those of Dean Runyan Associates, are of similar magnitude. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 57 APPENDIX B KEY TERMS AND DEFINITIONS Commodity: A classification of a product or service, such as lodging or food service. An establishment or industry may produce more than one commodity. Direct Impacts: Employment, earnings and tax receipts directly generated by travel spending, as distinguished from secondary and total impacts. Earnings: Earnings include wage and salary disbursements, other earned income or benefits, and proprietor income. Only the earnings attributable to travel expenditures are included. Employment: Industry employment (jobs) associated with travel-generated earnings. Includes both full-time and part-time positions, and salaried or self-employed individuals. Employment is reported as an average for a time period, typically annual. (Unless otherwise noted, the employment estimates refer to establishment or industry employment at place of work, not the employment status or residence of the individual.) Federal Taxes: Federal taxes include the motor fuel excise tax, airline ticket taxes, and personal income and payroll taxes. Industry: A classification of business or government establishments based on their primary technological process. (See NAICS Appendix table.) Local Taxes: Lodging, sales and auto rental taxes imposed by cities, counties and other regional tax jurisdictions in Arizona. These taxes are levied on sales to visitors and the spending of employees attributable to travel industry earnings. Passenger Facility Charges attributable to visitors (a fee imposed on airline tickets) are included in counties with airports. Property tax payments attributable to travel industry businesses and employees and a portion of tribal contributions from gaming to local governments are also included. Other spending: Other spending includes spending by residents on ground and air transportation for travel to other destinations, spending on travel arrangement services, and convention/ trade shows. Private Home: Unpaid overnight accommodations of friends and relatives. Receipts: Travel expenditures less the sales and excise taxes paid by the consumer. State Taxes: Lodging, sales, motor fuel, and business and personal income taxes imposed by the state of Arizona. These taxes are levied on sales to visitors and the spending of employees attributable to travel industry earnings. A portion of tribal contributions from gaming to state government is also included Total Impacts: The sum of Direct and Secondary impacts. Travel spending: The sum of visitor and other spending related to travel. Visitor spending: All spending on goods & services by visitors at the destination. Also referred to as destination spending. PAGE 58 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES APPENDIX C REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACT MODEL PRIMARY DATA SOURCES Room Demand, Visitor Surveys, Population, Inventory/Use of Campsites & Second Homes, Visitor air arrivals Visitor Volume (Travel Party Days by Type of Accommodation) ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF TRAVEL Accommodation Sales, Visitor Surveys, Airfares Note: Receipts equals Spending less POS Taxes Ratio of Earnings to Receipts for relevant Industry Average Annual Earnings per job for relevant industry DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Visitor Spending Point of Sale Taxes (Type of Accommodation and Type of Commodity) (Sales and Excise Taxes associated with Visitor Spending) Business Receipts (not reported) Business Taxes (Taxes on business income or receipts) Earnings (By Industry) Employment (By Industry) Personal Taxes (Local, state and federal income and payroll taxes) Note: Most estimates of taxes are based on implicit tax rates applied to visitor spending, business receipts, and employee earnings. Lodging tax receipts reflect actual tax collections. PAGE 59 APPENDIX D TRAVEL INDUSTRY ACCOUNTS: A COMPARISON OF THE REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACT MODEL AND TRAVEL & TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNTS An economic account is a method for displaying inter-related information about a set of economic activities. A travel industry account is a method to report different types of related information about the purchase of goods and services by visitors. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which now provides annual and quarterly estimates of travel and tourism at the national level, describes a Travel and Tourism Satellite Account (TTSA) as “present(ing) a rearrangement of information from the National Income and Product Accounts, from the industry accounts, and from other sources so that travel and tourism activities can be analyzed more completely than is possible in the structure of the traditional national economic accounts.”1 Similarly, the RTIM has been developed by Dean Runyan Associates to estimate travel spending, earnings, employment, and tax receipts at the state, county, and regional levels. These initial findings can, in turn, be used as input data for deriving estimates of other economic measures, such as value-added and indirect effects. This appendix provides an overview of the Regional Travel Impact Model (RTIM) and travel and tourism satellite accounts (TTSAs). Although there is no single or absolute form of a TTSA, the one developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will be the basis of the analysis here. The definitions, framework, and estimating methods used for the U.S. BEA TTSA follow, as closely as is practicable, the guidelines for similar travel satellite accounts that were developed by the World Tourism Organization (WTO) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The primary focus is on the direct impacts of visitor spending. Visitors are defined as persons that stay overnight away from home, or travel more than fifty miles oneway on a non-routine trip. Only the expenditures related to specific trips are counted as visitor spending. Other travel related expenditures such as the consumption of durable goods (e.g., recreational vehicles or sporting equipment) or the purchase of vacation homes are not considered. While such a definition of the travel industry (i.e., the trip related expenditures of visitors) is conservative, it is also in keeping with the notion of the travel industry as being an export-oriented industry for specific local communities. That is, visitors are important to regions because they inject money into the local economy. This focus on the export-oriented nature of the travel industry for local communities becomes blurred if the industry is defined so as to include non-trip related expenditures. 1 Peter D. Kuhbach, Mark A. Planting, and Erich H. Strassner, “U.S. Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts for 1998-2003,” Survey of Current Business 84 (September 2004): 43-59. PAGE 60 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PRIMARY CONCEPTS, CATEGORIES & DATA REQUIREMENTS There are three primary types of information that are measured and/or estimated in a travel industry account. The first is a measure of the travel industry in terms of both the characteristics of the business firms that sell travel goods and services and the characteristics of consumers that purchase travel industry goods and services. The second is a measure of the demand segments that consume travel industry goods and services. For example, the distinction between business and leisure travel is a measure of demand segments. The third is a measure of the components of economic output associated with the travel industry. The employee earnings generated by visitor spending is one such component. Travel-generated tax receipts are another. These three categories of information represent different aspects of the accounting ledger – they represent different ways of viewing or analyzing the travel industry. The bulk of this paper will discuss these three types of information in terms of their conceptual foundations, the data requirements, and some of the more salient issues that users of this information should be aware of. There will also be some discussion of indirect and induced effects in that these effects can be reasonably estimated from the direct travel industry accounts. These secondary (versus direct) effects describe the relationship of the travel industry to other sectors of the larger economy. The intent of this discussion will be to provide a general overview of the process of constructing travel industry accounts and the underlying similarity between the RTIM and a TTSA. More technical issues are generally placed in footnotes. TRAVEL INDUSTRY Defining the travel industry is probably the most critical and data intensive effort involved in developing a travel industry account. It is an exercise in matching supply (sellers of goods and services) with demand (the travelers that purchase those particular goods and services). It is complicated by the fact that no single industrial classification scheme provides a valid measure of the travel industry.2 There are only three significant industrial classifications (Accommodations [NAICS 721], Scheduled Passenger Air Transportation [NAICS 481111] and Travel Arrangement and Reservation Services [NAICS 5615]) that primarily sell travel industry goods and services.3 Firms in other industries (retail, recreation, transportation) provide goods and services to both travelers and other types of consumers. Because of this, most satellite accounts, as well as the RTIM, incorporate at least some information about the expenditures of visitors in order to define the supply of 2 The North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) is the current standard in the United States. 3 Even these industries are not purely travel. For example, the accommodations industry provides services to local residents (food service and meeting rooms). Passenger airlines also ship cargo on the same planes that carry passengers. Fortunately, it is usually possible to make adjustments for these non-travel components through the use of additional data. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 61 visitor industry firms. For example, if there is an estimate of visitor-days and an estimate of how much the average visitor spends on food services per day, then an estimate of visitor spending on food services can be calculated. In most cases, this will be only a fraction of all food service sales in that residents are a larger market for most restaurants.4 The industry sectors that are usually matched to visitor spending in this way are: accommodations (NAICS 721), food service (722), arts, entertainment and recreation (71), and retail trade (44-45). A portion of transportation business is also part of the travel industry for obvious reasons. In the case of the transportation sector, the definition and measurement of the travel industry component is more complicated because most transportation spending by visitors involves travel to and from the destination, rather than travel at or within the destination market. This is not an issue if the geographic scope of the travel industry market includes the origin and destination of travel. National travel industry accounts thus include all domestic passenger air transportation in the travel industry. The issue is more complicated at the state or regional level, however. Suppose, for example, that the focus of a travel industry account is the state of Arizona. How should the purchase of a round trip airline ticket by a Chicago resident traveling to Phoenix be treated in that only some of the economic impact of this spending will occur in Arizona? A reasonable approach would be to allocate only a portion of this spending (and related payroll, taxes, etc.) to Arizona and ignore the remainder for the purpose of creating a travel industry account for Arizona. However, if this procedure were followed for every state, the sum of the state accounts would be less than the national travel account. The state accounts would be additive if outbound air travel from each state were included. However, this is methodologically inconsistent with the construction of a national account, which does not include outbound travel as a component of domestic tourism demand. The approach used in the RTIM is to make a distinction between the visitor industry, that includes only visitor demand, and the travel industry, which includes visitor demand and that portion of outbound travel that can be attributed to the resident economy. For example, the passenger air transportation employment in Arizona can be divided between three groups of travelers: inbound, outbound, and pass-through. Only that employment attributable to inbound travel is part of the Arizona visitor industry. Employment attributable to outbound and pass-through travelers is included with the larger travel industry.5 4 The proportion can vary enormously among regions and localities, however. In many popular visitor destinations, the primary market for food service will be visitors. It should also be noted that even with reliable visitor survey data, there is still the issue of how to translate spending on food service commodities to the supply of food service by industry. As indicated in the footnote above, food service is also supplied by the accommodation industry. 5 The same issue arises with travel agencies and reservation services (NAICS 5615). Most of these services are probably related to outbound travel and are treated as such in the RTIM. PAGE 62 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES The following two tables display the specific industries that are included in the travel industry for the BEA’s national TTSA and the RTIM. Although not identical, the industries are equivalent with only a few exceptions.6 Bureau of Economic Analysis Tourism Industries Distribution of Travel-Generated Compensation in United States, 2007 Accommodation & Food Services Traveler accommodations Food services and drinking places 38.1% 21.5% 16.6% Transportation Air transportation Rail transportation Water transportation Interurban bus transportation Interurban charter bus transportation Urban transit systems & other tran. Taxi service Automotive equipment rental & leasing Automotive repair services Parking lots and garages Toll highways 23.3% 15.4% 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 2.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% Recreation Scenic and sightseeing transportation Motion pictures and performing arts Spectator sports Participant sports Gambling All other recreation and entertainment 11.2% 0.4% 1.1% 2.3% 2.4% 3.0% 2.0% Retail & Nondurable Goods Production Petroleum refineries Industries producing nondurable PCE commodities, excluding petroleum refineries Wholesale trade & tran. services Gasoline service stations Retail trade services, excluding gasoline service stations 16.2% 0.6% 4.4% 4.2% 1.3% 5.8% Travel Arrangement 7.3% All other industries 2.2% Total Tourism Compensation 100.0% Source: Adapted from Eric S. Griffith and Steven L. Zemanek, “U.S. Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts for 2005-2008,” Survey of Current Business (June 2009): 37, table 6. 6 The major exception is that the BEA includes the production of consumer non-durables that are sold through retail outlets. This is not a major component and would be even less so at the level of the state. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 63 RTIM Travel Impact Industries Matched to NAICS Travel Impact Industry NAICS Industry (code) Accommodation & Food Services Accommodation (721) Food Services and Drinking Places (722) Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Performing Arts, Spectator Sports (711) Museums (712) Amusement, Gambling (713) Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation (487) Retail Food & Beverage Stores (445) Gasoline Stations (447) Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (448) Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores (451) General Merchandise Stores (452) Miscellaneous Store Retailers (453) Ground Transportation Interurban and rural bus transportation (4852) Taxi and Limousine Service (4853) Charter Bus Industry (4855) Passenger Car Rental (532111) Parking Lots and Garages (812930) Air Transportation Scheduled Air Passenger Transportation (481111) Support Activities for Air Transportation (4881) Administrative/Support Services Travel Arrangement and Reservation Services (5615) Convention and Trade Show Organizers (56192) Source: Dean Runyan Associates PAGE 64 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES DEMAND SEGMENTS The distinction between inbound and outbound travel has already been discussed in the previous section and in terms of the concepts of the visitor industry and the travel industry. Three other types of demand segments that are related exclusively to the visitor industry will be discussed here. The first two demand categories are reported by the BEA in their national TTSA. They are: leisure versus business travel, and resident versus non-resident travel. The third demand category is typically reported in the RTIM: type of traveler accommodation. These three demand categories will be discussed in turn. The distinction between leisure versus business travel is useful for several reasons. Economists like to distinguish between personal consumption expenditures on the one hand and business expenditures on the other. Indeed, this distinction is central for the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). Those in the travel industry are more likely to be interested in this distinction because leisure travelers represent a more “marketable” segment because their travel choices are less determined by economic and business factors. Futhermore, business and leisure travelers tend to have different spending profiles. The availability of this information in either a state or regional TTSA or RTIM is essentially dependent on the availability of survey data (as it is at the national level). It should be noted, however, that such estimates are considerably less reliable for smaller geographic areas because of the limitations of survey data. Even at the state level, year-to-year changes in the composition of this demand segment should be interpreted in conjunction with other data. The distinction between resident versus non-resident travel is fundamental to a national TTSA because it mirrors the distinction between the domestic economy and international transactions. Non-resident travel in the United States is considered an export in the official international transaction accounts.7 The distinction is obviously also important because it is based on different political, legal, and currency regimes – factors that in themselves influence travel behavior. At the level of the state or region, the distinction between resident and nonresident travel is less important, although it is often reported.8 There are at least two reasons why this distinction is less useful at state and regional levels. First, there is considerably less of an economic rationale for distinguishing resident and non-resident travel at the level of the state, or any other political jurisdiction within the United States, than there is at the national level. States do not maintain interstate trade balance sheets that chart the flow of goods and services across state boundaries. From an economic point of view, the administration of the tax system is the primary, if only, reason for this distinction. In the case of travel and tourism, 7 Conversely, the spending of U.S. visitors in other countries is treated as an import in the international transaction accounts. 8 The issues discussed with regard to the reliability of survey data for leisure versus business travel also applies to this category DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 65 the evaluation of the tax impacts of resident versus nonresident travel might also be important.9 Second, travel is behaviorally defined by length of distance from home (usually at least 50 miles one-way), trip purpose (non-routine), and/or the use of an overnight accommodation away from home. Rarely is domestic travel defined by virtue of crossing a geographic boundary.10 The operators of tourist attractions in local communities are generally less interested in the origin of visitors than in the revenue that they generate for their businesses. In terms of the economic impacts at the local level, the distinction between in-state residents, out-of-state residents and international visitors may not be relevant other than for the purpose of marketing. However, other geographic characteristics of the visitor (e.g., distance traveled, the specific area of origin) are generally more useful measures of the visitor market than whether the visitor is a resident or nonresident. Finally, the distinction among different types of traveler accommodations is generally reported in the RTIM. Typically, these categories are:  Visitors who stay in hotels, motels, B&Bs., and similar lodging facilities  Visitors who stay at campsites  Visitors who stay in the private homes of friends or relatives  Visitors who stay in vacation or second homes  Visitors who do not stay in overnight accommodations on their trip away from home (day visitors). These distinctions can be useful because estimates of economic impacts are often used for different purposes. The total of all accommodation types, of course, is an estimate of the total magnitude of the visitor industry. Visitors who stay in commercial lodging such as hotels and motels are most likely to have the greatest economic impact on a person-day basis. These visitors are also more likely to be influenced by marketing efforts. In urban areas, a large proportion will represent business travel. In other words, the type of accommodation category can be used in conjunction with other types of data to analyze the market characteristics of visitors. 9 Nonresident visitors who pay taxes in their destination state represent an unambiguous gain for the state. This effect is less clear for resident travelers within the state. 10 In essence, state level travel impact estimates really represent an aggregation of smaller geographic units, such as counties or regions. Populous states with large landmasses (e.g., California or Texas) will have a higher proportion of resident travel than small states (e.g., Rhode Island or Delaware). PAGE 66 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES COMPONENTS OF INDUSTRY OUTPUT Because both the RTIM and the TTSA are empirically linked to NAICS industry accounts, it is possible to provide estimates of different components of economic output. The major economic components most often estimated are:11  Travel spending (Gross Output)  Value-added (Gross Product)  Earnings (labor income)  Indirect business taxes (sales, excise, property taxes & fees). The relationship of these components is shown below. As indicated, the valueadded of a particular industry (the bar on the right) is equal to gross output (travel spending) minus the intermediate inputs used by travel industry businesses to produce the good or service. Restaurants, for example, prepare and serve the food products that are purchased from suppliers. Airlines purchase or lease airplanes from other firms. These intermediate inputs are not counted as part of the valueadded of the travel industry. They are counted as value-added in other industries (e.g., agriculture, aerospace manufacturing). Components of Industry Output Inputs/Goods Resold Operating Surplus Indirect Taxes Labor Income Output (Spending) Value-Added The distinction between gross output and value-added is probably even more important at the state or regional level. This is because the intermediate inputs that are purchased from other industries are even more likely to be purchased from businesses located in different regions or states. For example, the economic impact 11 There are some small differences between the BEA TTSA and the RTIM in what these components include. The BEA allocates proprietor income to Operating Surplus, the RTIM allocates it to Labor Income. The RTIM does not have an estimate of property taxes in indirect taxes. Overall, property taxes on businesses are a relatively small proportion of indirect taxes. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 67 of air passenger travel in the state of Hawaii should not include the purchase of airplanes manufactured in other parts of the world. Travel industry value-added is a more meaningful measure of the true economic impact of visitor spending in Hawaii because a portion of the economic impact of visitor spending in the state will actually occur elsewhere.12 Value-added can also be viewed in terms of the distribution or payout of industry receipts, exclusive of those paid to other firms for intermediate inputs. Some of the receipts are distributed to labor as wages, benefits, and proprietor income. Some receipts are paid to government as indirect taxes. These taxes are called “indirect” because most of them are actually paid by consumers in the form of sales or excise taxes.13 The remainder leaves gross operating surplus. Out of gross operating surplus various payments are made in the form of dividends, interest, and other payments, or retained by the firm. The sum of these three broad categories of payments is equal to travel industry value-added. To summarize: Value-added = Spending less intermediate goods & services, or Value-added = Labor Income plus indirect business taxes plus gross operating surplus. The RTIM is similar to the TTSA in that it also provides estimates of these components of economic output. Travel spending, earnings, and tax impacts are generally provided at the state or regional level. Value-added is generally reported at the state-level only (sometimes referred to as Travel Industry Gross State Product). At the level of the state, travel industry value-added or GSP is an important measure – more economically meaningful than travel spending.14 For smaller geographic areas, however, the rationale for reporting value-added is less clear. First, there are real data limitations and data costs in deriving these estimates. Second, the most important components of value added for the travel industry are earnings and tax receipts. Because the travel industry is relatively labor intensive and because a large proportion of travel industry goods and services are subject to excise and sales taxes, these two components of value-added (labor income and indirect taxes) are relatively high for the travel industry. The local effects of gross operating surplus are generally less important and certainly much more difficult to assess than are earnings and tax impacts. The relevance of earnings and tax receipts is also in keeping the export-oriented emphasis of the travel industry: earnings and tax receipts are more likely to stay in the local economy than is operating surplus. 12 It should also be noted the value of the intermediate inputs used by travel industry firms will not necessarily disappear if the travel industry stops buying them. Aerospace firms will shift their production to other users (e.g., military). Agriculture will seek new markets for their products. 13 Other taxes included here are property taxes, business franchise taxes, and other fees. Income taxes are not included, because they are paid out of operating surplus. 14 It is also possible to compare different industries with respect to their value-added. It is more difficult and less useful to compare industries on the basis of sales. PAGE 68 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES INDIRECT, INDUCED AND SECONDARY EFFECTS To this point, the discussion of travel industry accounts has referred only to the direct output components. That is, the ripple effects of the re-spending of travel industry receipts throughout the larger economy have not been analyzed. The structure of both the TTSA and the RTIM permit such analysis.  Indirect effects refer to the intermediate inputs used to produce the final product or service, providing that those inputs are themselves produced within the designated geographic area.  Induced effects refer to the purchase of goods and services by employees that are attributable to direct and indirect impacts. These induced impacts are derived from economic data that describe the purchasing patterns of households. For example, employees of all the designated export-oriented industries will spend their income on food, household durables, health care, and so on.  The sum of indirect and induced impacts is sometimes referred to as the secondary effect. These secondary impacts may be as great or greater than the direct impact alone.  The ratio of the total effects (direct plus either indirect, induced, or secondary) to the direct effects is the multiplier. The BEA reports the indirect components of economic output. This is equivalent to domestic travel spending less the goods and services imported from abroad to meet domestic demand. For travel, these imports would include souvenirs manufactured in China and petroleum extracted in Saudi Arabia. The indirect output multiplier for 2002 was 1.76. The ratio of domestic travel spending to travel industry value-added was 1.88. The difference reflects the intermediate inputs for travel imported from abroad. At the state level, these indirect output multipliers are typically lower because relatively more of the intermediate inputs are purchased from outside of the state. At the county or metropolitan level, the multipliers are generally even lower for the same reason. Furthermore, the estimates are usually less reliable because of the data limitations of the regional input-output model used to estimate the indirect effects. The BEA does not report induced effects – the effect of household spending of the direct and indirect labor income. Typically, these induced effects will be larger than the indirect effects at the state or regional level, in part because they are based on both the direct and indirect components.15 As with indirect effects, the induced effects will also tend to be lower for smaller economic areas and the reliability of the estimates will be less. 15 The induced effects can be estimated with the Implan model maintained by the Minnesota Implan Group. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 69 Secondary effects should be interpreted cautiously. These effects describe the relationship of economic transactions at a point in time. These relationships will not necessarily remain constant with a change in direct economic output. This is because all economic resources have alternative uses. Because of this, it is often difficult to determine the effect of an increase or decrease in visitor spending on the larger economic system over time. THE REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACT MODEL AND TRAVEL & TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNTS COMPARED This appendix has provided an overview of Dean Runyan Associates RTIM and the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ domestic TTSA. These travel industry accounts are similar in terms of how they define the travel industry and the measures of the industry that are reported. The differences stem largely from their different levels of analysis – the BEA provides estimates at the national level only, while the RTIM’s are typically constructed on a state or regional level. Because of this geographic focus, the RTIM provides a distinction between the visitor industry and the travel industry. The RTIM also provides measures of all of the components of economic output and secondary effects at the state or large region level. At smaller units of analysis, however, the emphasis is on earnings and tax receipts generated by travel spending as these are the most reliable and meaningful measures of the economic impact of travel at the local level. PAGE 70 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES APPENDIX E Arizona Earnings and Employment by Industry Sector, 2013 Earnings Industry Sector Primarily Export-Oriented Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and related Mining Manufacturing **Travel Primarily Non Export-Oriented Construction Utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Real estate and rental and leasing Management of companies and enterprises Administrative and waste services Other services, except public administration Government and government enterprises Mixed Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Professional and technical services Educational services Health care and social assistance Leisure and Hospitality Arizona Total** ($Billion) 16.4 1.3 1.4 13.6 5.5 Percent Employment of Total (Thousand) 9.7% 0.8% 0.9% 8.1% Percent of Total 3.2% 237 44 24 168 164 7.0% 1.3% 0.7% 5.0% 4.8% 86.4 9.7 1.6 8.6 12.6 5.1 2.9 10.0 6.3 29.8 51.0% 5.7% 0.9% 5.1% 7.4% 3.0% 1.7% 5.9% 3.7% 17.6% 1,812 175 12 111 363 221 34 277 177 442 53.4% 5.2% 0.4% 3.3% 10.7% 6.5% 1.0% 8.2% 5.2% 13.0% 66.7 5.3 3.5 12.4 13.5 2.9 20.8 8.3 169.5 39.3% 3.1% 2.0% 7.3% 8.0% 1.7% 12.3% 4.9% 100.0% 1,343 98 53 214 211 71 367 329 3,392 39.6% 2.9% 1.6% 6.3% 6.2% 2.1% 10.8% 9.7% 100.0% **Travel is not included in the sub and grand totals because it is also represented in other sectors (primarily leisure and hospitality, transporation, and retail trade). DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 71 APPENDIX F Industry Groups Accomm. & Food Serv. Eating & Drinking Hotels and Lodging Places Agric. & Food Proc. Agricultural- Forestry- Fishery Services Animal and Marine Fats and Oils Blended and Prepared Flour Bottled and Canned Soft Drinks & Water Bread- Cake- and Related Products Canned and Cured Sea Foods Canned Fruits and Vegetables Canned Specialties Cattle Feedlots Cereal Preparations Cheese- Natural and Processed Chewing and Smoking Tobacco Chewing Gum Chocolate and Cocoa Products Cigarettes Cigars Commercial Fishing Condensed and Evaporated Milk Confectionery Products Cookies and Crackers Cotton Cottonseed Oil Mills Creamery Butter Dairy Farm Products Dehydrated Food Products Distilled Liquor- Except Brandy Dog- Cat- and Other Pet Food Feed Grains Flavoring Extracts and Syrups- N.E.C. Flour and Other Grain Mill Products Fluid Milk Food Grains Food Preparations- N.E.C Forest Products Forestry Products Frozen Fruits- Juices and Vegetables Frozen Specialties Fruits Grass Seeds PAGE 72 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Agric. & Food Proc. Greenhouse and Nursery Products Hay and Pasture Hogs- Pigs and Swine Ice Cream and Frozen Desserts Landscape and Horticultural Services Macaroni and Spaghetti Malt Malt Beverages Manufactured Ice Meat Packing Plants Miscellaneous Crops Miscellaneous Livestock Oil Bearing Crops Other Meat Animal Products Pickles- Sauces- and Salad Dressings Potato Chips & Similar Snacks Poultry and Eggs Poultry Processing Prepared Feeds- N.E.C Prepared Fresh Or Frozen Fish Or Seafood Ranch Fed Cattle Range Fed Cattle Rice Milling Roasted Coffee Salted and Roasted Nuts & Seeds Sausages and Other Prepared Meats Sheep- Lambs and Goats Shortening and Cooking Oils Soybean Oil Mills Sugar Sugar Crops Tobacco Tobacco Stemming and Redrying Tree Nuts Vegetable Oil Mills- N.E.C Vegetables Wet Corn Milling Wines- Brandy- and Brandy Spirits Arts, Entertain., Rec. Amusement and Recreation Services- N.E.C. Bowling Alleys and Pool Halls Commercial Sports Except Racing Membership Sports and Recreation Clubs Motion Pictures Other Nonprofit Organizations Racing and Track Operation Theatrical Producers- Bands Etc. Water Transportation DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 73 Construction Maintenance and Repair Oil and Gas Wells Maintenance and Repair Other Facilities Maintenance and Repair- Residential New Farm Structures New Government Facilities New Highways and Streets New Industrial and Commercial Buildings New Mineral Extraction Facilities New Residential Structures New Utility Structures Finance, Real Estate Banking Credit Agencies Insurance Agents and Brokers Insurance Carriers Owner-occupied Dwellings Real Estate Security and Commodity Brokers Government Commodity Credit Corporation Federal Electric Utilities Federal Government - Military Federal Government - Non-Military Local Government Passenger Transit Other Federal Government Enterprises Other State and Local Govt Enterprises State & Local Government - Education State & Local Government - Non-Education State and Local Electric Utilities U.S. Postal Service Misc. Manf. Includes all utilities, mining and manfacturing industries not elsewhere classified Misc. Services Advertising Beauty and Barber Shops Computer and Data Processing Services Detective and Protective Services Domestic Services Electrical Repair Service Equipment Rental and Leasing Funeral Service and Crematories Laundry- Cleaning and Shoe Repair Miscellaneous Personal Services Miscellaneous Repair Shops Other Business Services Personnel Supply Services Photofinishing- Commercial Photography Portrait and Photographic Studios Services To Buildings Watch- Clock- Jewelry and Furniture Repair PAGE 74 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Prof. Services Accounting- Auditing and Bookkeeping Business Associations Child Day Care Services Colleges- Universities- Schools Doctors and Dentists Elementary and Secondary Schools Engineering- Architectural Services Hospitals Job Trainings & Related Services Labor and Civic Organizations Legal Services Management and Consulting Services Nursing and Protective Care Other Educational Services Other Medical and Health Services Religious Organizations Research- Development & Testing Services Residential Care Social Services- N.E.C. Retail Trade Apparel & Accessory Stores Building Materials & Gardening Food Stores Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Retail Wholesale Trade Transportation Air Transportation Arrangement Of Passenger Transportation Automobile Parking and Car Wash Automobile Rental and Leasing Automobile Repair and Services Automotive Dealers & Service Stations Local- Interurban Passenger Transit Motor Freight Transport and Warehousing Railroads and Related Services Transportation Services DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 75