Arizona Travel Impacts 1998-2013p Photo courtesy of Arizona Office of Tourism May 2014 Prepared for the Arizona Office of Tourism Phoenix, Arizona ARIZONA TRAVEL IMPACTS 1998-2013P Arizona Office of Tourism Primary Research Conducted By: Dean Runyan Associates Portland, Oregon May 2014 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report describes the economic impacts of travel to and through Arizona and the state’s fifteen counties. The estimates of the direct impacts associated with traveler spending in Arizona were produced using the Regional Travel Impact Model (RTIM) developed by Dean Runyan Associates. The estimates for Arizona are generally comparable to the U.S. Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The estimates of spending, earnings, employment and tax receipts are also used as input data to derive estimates of other economic measures, including gross domestic product (GDP) and secondary effects of the travel industry. ANOTHER YEAR OF MODERATE EXPANSION FOR THE ARIZONA TRAVEL INDUSTRY Following the steep decline in travel to Arizona brought on by the 2008-2009 recession, travel activity in the state is showing moderate, but sustained, improvement. Although total travel employment is still below the 2006 peak due to job losses in air transportation and travel arrangement services, employment in the leisure and hospitality sector has recovered.  Spending. Total direct travel spending in Arizona was $19.8 billion in 2013. This represents a 2.7 percent increase over the preceding year in current dollars. Small increases in airfares and lower gasoline prices were the reason for the relatively low increase in current dollar spending. In real dollars (adjusted for inflation) Arizona travel spending increased by 2.3 percent – similar to the increase for 2011-12.  Travel Activity. Visitor air travel on domestic flights to Arizona destinations increased by 0.4 percent in 2013. Room demand, as reported by Smith Travel Research, increased by 1.9 percent for the year.  Employment. Direct travel-generated employment was 163,500 in 2013. This represents an addition of 2,200 jobs, an increase of 1.4 percent.  Secondary Impacts. The re-spending of travel-related revenues by businesses and employees creates secondary impacts. In 2013, the secondary impacts were 141,000 jobs with $5.7 billion in earnings.  GDP. The Gross Domestic Product of the travel industry was $7.7 billion in 2013. The travel industry and the microelectronics industry have been the top two export-oriented industries in the state in recent years. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES THE ARIZONA TRAVEL INDUSTRY IS A LEADING EXPORT-ORIENTED INDUSTRY Travel and tourism is one of the most important “export-oriented” industries in Arizona. Spending by visitors generates sales in lodging, food services, recreation, transportation and retail businesses – the “travel industry.” These sales support jobs for Arizona residents and contribute tax revenue to local and state governments. Travel is especially important in the non-metropolitan areas of the state, where manufacturing and traded services are less prevalent. Selected Arizona Export-Oriented Industries, 2013 Travel $5.4 Microelectronics $4.5 Aerospace $2.9 Agriculture $1.4 Mining $1.2 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 Earnings in Billions Note: Preliminary 2013 estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Agriculture includes food and beverage processing industries. THE TRAVEL INDUSTRY GENERATES TAX BENEFITS FOR ARIZONA RESIDENTS In 2013, the travel industry generated $1,100 in local, state and federal tax receipts for each Arizona household.  In 2013, almost seven percent of all local and state tax revenues were generated by the travel industry.  The tax revenue impacts of the Arizona travel industry are relatively more important in non-urban counties (see graph). State Transaction Privilege Taxes Generated By Direct Travel Spending, 2013 FY Maricopa & Pima All Other Counties 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Percent Travel-Generated DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES ARIZONA TRAVEL IMPACTS, 1998-2013P I. U.S. Travel II. Arizona Travel Summary of Arizona Travel Travel Trends Seasonal and Regional Travel Impacts Visitor Origin Arizona Travel Industry Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product of Arizona Export-Oriented Industries Direct, Secondary & Total Impacts III. State and Local Government Revenue IV. Regional Travel Impacts V. County Travel Impacts Appendices A. B. C. D. E. F 2013 Travel Impact Estimates Key Terms and Definitions Regional Travel Impact Model Travel Industry Accounts Arizona Earnings and Employment by Industry Sector Secondary Impacts Industry Groups DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES page 1 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 13 18 24 32 55 56 61 62 63 74 75 PAGE I List of Tables and Figures page I. US Travel Annual Direct Travel Spending in U.S., 2000-2013p Annual U.S. Travel Spending, 2008Q1-2013Q4 International Direct Travel Spending in U.S. Overseas Arrivals to the U.S. U.S. Travel Industry Employment, 2008Q1-2013Q4 Components of U.S. Travel Industry Employment 2 2 3 3 4 4 II. Arizona Travel Arizona Travel Trends, 1998-2013p Arizona Direct Travel Spending, Real and Current Dollars Air Passenger Visitor Arrivals to Arizona, US Air Carriers, 2000-2013 Arizona Lodging Sales, 2000-2013 Regional Shares of Arizona Taxable Lodging Sales, 2013 Taxable Lodging Sales by Region and Quarter, 2013 Arizona Taxable Lodging Sales by Quarter, 2007-2013 Arizona Visitor Spending by Origin of Visitor, 2013p International Visitor Spending in Arizona, 2000-2013p Arizona Travel Industry Gross Domestic Product, 2013p Arizona Gross Domestic Product, 2012 (Selected Export-Oriented Industries) Total Employment and Earnings Generated by Travel Spending in Arizona, 2013p Direct & Secondary Employment Generated by Travel Spending, 2013p (graph) Direct & Secondary Earnings Generated by Travel Spending, 2013p (graph) Direct & Secondary Employment Generated by Travel Spending, 2013p (table) Direct & Secondary Earnings Generated by Travel Spending, 2013p (table) Arizona Travel Impacts, 2004-2013p (detail) III. State and Local Government Revenue 18 Arizona State & Local Tax Revenue, 2012-13 FY Arizona Travel Industry State & Local Tax Revenues, 2012-13 FY Arizona State & Local Tax Revenues, 2012-13 FY (table) GDP and Tax Payments of Selected Arizona Industries, 2012 Tax Payments as Percent of GDP for Selected Arizona Industries, 2012 State Transaction Privilege Taxes Generated by Travel Spending, 2013 FY IV. Regional Travel Impacts Regional Impact Summary Tables Regional Impact Detail Tables, 2004-2013p IV. County Travel Impacts 18 19 20 21 21 22 24 25-26 27 32 Travel-Generated Earnings Shares, 2013p Travel-Generated Employment and Earnings Shares by County, 2013p County Impact Summary Tables County Impact Detail Tables, 2004-2013p PAGE II 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 15 15 16 16 17 33 34 35-39 40-53 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PREFACE The purpose of this study is to document the economic significance of the travel industry in Arizona from 1998 to 2013. These findings show the level of travel spending by visitors traveling to and within the state, and the impact this spending had on the economy in terms of earnings, employment and tax revenue. Dean Runyan Associates prepared this study for the Arizona Office of Tourism. Dean Runyan Associates has specialized in research and planning services for the travel, tourism and recreation industry since 1984. With respect to economic impact analysis, the firm developed and currently maintains the Regional Travel Impact Model (RTIM), a proprietary computer model for analyzing travel economic impacts at the state, regional and local level. Dean Runyan Associates also has extensive experience in project feasibility analysis, market evaluation, survey research and travel and tourism planning. Many individuals and organizations provided data and assistance for this report. State agencies include the Department of Revenue, Department of Commerce, Gaming Commission and State Parks. Information was also provided by the College of Business and Public Administration at the University of Arizona and the School of Hotel and Restaurant Management at Northern Arizona University. Federal agencies that provided essential data for this report include the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, the U.S. Forest Service, and the National Park Service. Special thanks are due to Melissa Elkins, Research Manager for the Arizona Office of Tourism. Without her support and assistance, this report would not have been possible. Dean Runyan Associates 833 SW 11th Ave., Suite 920 Portland, OR 97205 (503) 226-2973 info@deanrunyan.com www.deanrunyan.com DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE III This page intentionally blank I. U.S. TRAVEL DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 1 The national level data in this section focuses on visitor spending trends in current and real dollars, international visitation to the U.S., and trends in travel-generated employment. The following two graphs are derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts.1 Both graphs show direct tourism output for the United States – spending by domestic and international visitors. Annual Direct Travel Spending in U.S., 2000-13p Tourism Output (Billions) $950 $900 Real $850 $800 $750 Current $700 $650 $600 $550 Spending by domestic and international visitors was $900 billion in 2013 in current dollars. This represents a 4.0 percent increase over 2012. When adjusted for changes in prices (real dollars), spending increased by 3.6 percent – compared to a 2.8 percent increase from 2011 to 2012. $500 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13p Direct Travel Spending in U.S. 2008-Q1 to 2013-Q4 Annualized Seasonally Adjusted in 2005 Dollars Real Tourism Output (Billions) $780 $730 $680 $630 $580 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, real travel spending in the last quarter of 2013 almost attained the previous high recorded in the first quarter of 2007. Real travel spending has increased at a fairly constant pace over the past three years, with the exception of the last two quarters of 2012. Year-Quarter 1 See http://www.bea.gov/industry/index.htm#satellite. PAGE 2 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES The following three graphs are concerned with international travel to the U.S. The first graph is derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts and International Transactions.2 The following two graphs are derived from the monthly international arrival data released by the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries. 3 International Direct Travel Spending in U.S. Amounts in Real Dollars (Billions) International Share of U.S. Internal Travel* $145 International Share Share Spend $135 15% $125 $115 10% $105 $95 5% $85 0% $75 01 03 05 07 09 11 *Airfares for international flights on U.S. air carriers are not included. International Spending (Billion) 20% Spending by international visitors in the U.S. increased by 10.0 percent from 2012 to 2013 in real dollars – the fourth consecutive year of growth. This compares to a 2.4 percent rate of growth in real spending by domestic visitors. (Note: These estimates have been calculated by Dean Runyan Associates.) Overseas Arrivals (Millions) 13 35 Europe 30 Asia Other 25 20 15 The growth and increased share of in international travel spending in the U.S. has been driven by an increase in overseas arrivals over the past four years -- an average annual increase of more than 7.5 percent. The 2009-2013p average annual increase for Asian countries has been almost 13 percent. 10 5 0 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 60 50 09 10 11 12 13 40 30 20 10 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2 See www.bea.gov/international/index.htm for quarterly international estimates of travel and tourism exports (travel to the U.S. by international visitors). Estimates of inflation-adjusted real spending by Dean Runyan Associates. 3 See http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/research/monthly/index.html. Annual and 4th quarter 2013 estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 3 The following two graphs show quarterly employment trends since 2008 for seasonally adjusted data.* The first graph shows that travel-generated employment was at its lowest level in the first quarter of 2010 and has not yet fully recovered. (Employment is typically a lagging indicator of overall economic activity.) The second graph shows the employment trends of different types of businesses within the travel industry. In general, the leisure and hospitality sector has recovered more fully than transportation, retail and other business in the travel industry. This is in part due to the cyclical patterns of these industry sectors and in part due to structural changes. (For example, air transportation now uses fewer employees to transport an equivalent number of passengers.) U.S. Travel Industry Employment Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates 2008-Q1 to 2013-Q4 6.2 Millions of Jobs 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 08 09 10 11 12 13 Components of U.S. Travel Industry Employment Year-Quarter 2008-1 = 100 Travel industry employment includes the leisure and hospitality sector (arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodations and food services). This represents about two-thirds of all travel industry employment. Transportation includes all air and ground transportation goods and services, including motor fuel and travel arrangement. This comprises about onefifth of all travel industry employment. Slightly more than one-tenth of travel industry employment is in retail and other businesses. 105 Leisure & Hospitality Period 08-Q1 = 100 100 Transportation 95 90 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel & Tourism Satellite Accounts. Retail & Other 85 *Seasonal adjustment permits quarter to quarter trend analysis. 80 75 08 PAGE 4 09 10 11 12 13 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES II. ARIZONA TRAVEL DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 5 The multi-billion dollar travel industry in Arizona is an important part of the state and local economies. The industry is represented primarily by businesses in the leisure and hospitality sector, transportation, and retail. The money that visitors spend on various goods and services while in Arizona produces business receipts at these firms, which in turn generate earnings and employment for Arizona residents. In addition, state and local governments collect taxes that are generated from visitor spending. Most of these taxes are imposed on the sale of goods and services to visitors, thus avoiding a tax burden on local residents. The economic impacts directly generated by visitor spending also contribute to significant secondary impacts. A portion of the business receipts generated by visitor spending is spent by businesses within Arizona for other goods and services (indirect impacts). Visitor generated earnings are also spent by employees for goods and services produced in Arizona (induced impacts). SUMMARY OF ARIZONA TRAVEL  Total direct travel spending in Arizona was $19.8 billion in 2013. This represents a 2.7 percent increase over the preceding year in current dollars. Small increases in airfares and lower gasoline prices were the reason for the relatively low increase in current dollar spending. In real dollars (adjusted for inflation) Arizona travel spending increased by 2.3 percent – similar to the increase for 2011-12.  Lodging sales, a primary component of visitor spending, increased by 4.1 percent from 2012 to 2013 following a 3.8 percent increase the preceding year.  Visitor air travel on domestic flights to Arizona destinations increased by 0.4 percent in 2013. Visitor air arrivals to the state are essentially unchanged since the large declines in 2008 and 2009.  Direct travel-generated employment was 163,500 in 2013. This represents an addition of 2,200, an increase of 1.4 percent. Job losses occurred in air transportation, travel arrangement services and convention/trade show support. More than three thousand jobs were added in the leisure and hospitality sector – an increase of almost three percent. (See detailed employment estimates, page 17.)  The Gross Domestic Product of the travel industry was $7.7 billion in 2013. The travel industry and the microelectronics industry have been the top two exportoriented industries in the state in recent years.  The re-spending of travel-related revenues by businesses and employees creates secondary impacts. In 2013, the secondary impacts were 141,000 jobs with $5.7 billion in earnings. PAGE 6 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES TRAVEL TRENDS Following the steep decline in travel to Arizona brought on by the 2008-2009 recession, travel activity in the state is showing moderate, but sustained, improvement. Although total travel employment is still below the 2006 peak due to job losses in air transportation and travel arrangement services, employment in the leisure and hospitality sector has recovered. Total direct travel spending in Arizona was $19.8 billion in 2013. This represents a 2.7 percent increase over the preceding year in current dollars. Lodging sales, a primary component of visitor spending, increased by 4.1 percent. (Arizona Department of Revenue). Spending on motor fuel actually declined due to lower gas prices. This travel spending resulted in 2,200 additional jobs in the travel industry, an increase of 1.4 percent. The leisure and hospitality sector added 3,200 jobs, an increase of 2.7 percent. (See detailed impact table, page 16.) Arizona Travel Trends, 1998-2013p Spending 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013p Earnings Employment ($Billion) ($Billion) (Thousand) 11.8 12.7 13.7 13.2 13.2 14.1 15.2 16.8 17.8 18.1 18.0 16.4 17.5 18.5 19.3 19.8 3.4 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.4 152.7 157.9 160.0 153.2 151.1 154.4 158.5 164.8 168.5 167.9 165.1 156.2 154.3 157.0 161.3 163.5 1.2 3.2 1.4 0.5 Tax Revenue ($Million) Local State Federal 503 463 750 546 497 804 586 533 853 550 526 788 564 545 800 598 575 843 637 615 917 693 669 982 728 698 1,049 749 713 1,095 748 704 1,074 717 671 1,032 727 706 1,063 774 770 1,011 790 799 1,048 786 791 1,153 Total 1,716 1,846 1,973 1,863 1,909 2,016 2,169 2,344 2,475 2,557 2,526 2,420 2,496 2,555 2,638 2,730 Annual Percentage Change 12-13p 98-13p 2.7 3.5 -0.5 3.0 -1.0 3.6 10.0 2.9 3.5 3.1 Note: Estimates for 2013p are preliminary. These direct travel impacts do not include secondary (indirect and induced) impacts. One-way visitor airfares are included. Total earnings include wage and salary disbursements, other earned income and proprietor income. Employment includes full- and part-time payroll employees and self-employed. The decrease in local and state tax revenue in 2013 was due to the expiration of the temporary 1 percent tax on May 31, 2013. If there had not been a tax rate change, local revenues would have increased by 2 percent and state revenues would have increased by 4 percent. The increase in federal taxes was due, in part, to the expiration of the temporary payroll tax reduction on January 1, 2013. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 7 Arizona Direct Travel Spending Real and Current Dollars 2000-2013p Travel Spending (Billions) $22 Real $20 $18 Current $16 $14 $12 $10 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13p In real dollars (adjusted for inflation) Arizona travel spending increased by 2.3 percent over 2012 – close to the 2.7 percent increase in current dollars. Unlike preceding years, there was little change in transportation prices. Sources: Smith Travel Research, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation Origin and Destination Survey, and Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-West Urban. Air Passenger Visitor Arrivals to Arizona U.S. Air Carriers, 2000-2013 Visitor air arrivals to Arizona increased by 0.4 percent from 2012 to 2013. Visitor air arrivals to the state are essentially unchanged since the large declines in 2008 and 2009. Visitor Air Arrivals (Millions) 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 Sources: U.S. Department of Transportation Origin and Destination Survey and Dean Runyan Associates. 5.5 5.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Arizona Taxable Lodging Sales 2000-2013 Taxable Lodging Sales (Billions) $2.6 Taxable lodging sales increased by 4.1 percent annually from 2012 to 2013 – following a 3.8 percent increase the preceding year. $2.4 $2.2 $2.0 $1.8 $1.6 Source: Arizona Department of Revenue. Lodging sales for the second quarter of 2013 were adjusted by Dean Runyan Associates to correct an anomaly in tax payments received. $1.4 $1.2 $1.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 PAGE 8 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES SEASONAL AND REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACTS The pie chart shows the annual distribution of lodging sales by region. The lodging sales of the Phoenix and Central Arizona region are greater than the four other regions combined. (The Northern Arizona region includes Apache, Coconino and Navajo counties. The West Coast region includes La Paz, Mohave and Yuma counties. The North Central region includes Gila and Yavapai counties. The Phoenix and Central Arizona region includes Maricopa and Pinal counties. The Tucson and Southern Arizona region includes Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Pima and Santa Cruz counties.) Regional Shares of Arizona Taxable Lodging Sales, 2013 West Coast 4.2% North Central 5.5% Phoenix & Central 60.6% Taxable Lodging Sales by Region and Quarter, 2013 The next two graphs provide quarterly breakouts for the regions and the state. Lodging sales are greatest in the first quarter for three of Arizona’s tourism regions – the West Coast, Phoenix and Tucson. By contrast, spring and summer quarters are most important for the Northern and North Central regions. Northern Tucson & Southern 14.4% 15.3% Northern West Coast North Central Phoenix & Central Tucson & Southern 0% 20% Jan-Mar Apr-Jun 60% 80% Jul-Sep 100% Oct-Dec Arizona Taxable Lodging Sales by Quarter, 2007 -2013 (Millions) $1,000 $800 Millions The bottom column chart provides a statewide quarterly breakout of lodging sales in two year increments beginning in 2007. (The peak year for lodging sales in the state was 2007. See graph on preceding page.) Lodging sales in 2013 was still below 2007 levels for all four quarters. The deficit for the first quarter (-9.6 percent) was the greatest, while the third quarter (-2.7 percent) was the least. 40% $600 $400 $200 $0 Jan-Mar Apr-Jun 2007 2009 Jul-Sep 2001 Oct-Dec 2013 Source: Arizona Department of Revenue taxable hotel/motel sales. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 9 VISITOR ORIGIN Out-of-state travelers generate more than three-fourths of the visitor impacts in Arizona. Visitors from other states are the largest segment (more than 60 percent of spending), while international travel, including day travel from Mexico, comprises approximately 17 percent of visitor impacts. Arizona Travel Impacts by Origin of Visitor, 2013p Origin Spending Earnings Employment Tax Receipts ($ Million) ($ Billion) ($ Billion) (Thousand) Local/State Federal 3.8 10.8 2.8 17.4 2.4 19.8 0.8 3.1 0.6 4.5 0.9 5.4 30.3 98.8 21.0 150.1 13.5 163.5 327 997 231 1,555 21 1,576 181 717 106 1,005 148 1,153 Arizona Other U.S. International All Visitors Other Travel Total Travel Sources: Dean Runyan Associates, International Trade Administration and Bureau of Economic Analysis (U.S. Dept. of Commerce), TNS TravelsAmerica visitor survey, Statistics Canada, Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi and Alberta H. Charney, “Mexican Visitors to Arizona: Visitor Characteristics and Economic Impacts, 2007-08” (Karl Eller College of Business and Public Administration, University of Arizona) and Bureau of Transportation Statistics Border Crossing/Entry Data. International Visitor Spending in Arizona, 2000-2013p International Share Spending in Real (2013) Dollars 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Share $2.8 Spend $2.7 $2.6 $2.5 $2.4 $2.3 $2.2 $2.1 $2.0 01 03 05 07 09 11 13p Sources: See above chart for source of international estimates. See first graph on preceding page for constant dollar estimates. Constant dollar visitor spending does not include “Other Travel.” PAGE 10 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES ARIZONA TRAVEL INDUSTRY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT In concept, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of a particular industry is equal to gross output (sales or receipts) minus intermediate inputs (the goods and services purchased from other industries). GDP is always smaller than output or sales because GDP measures only the “value added” of an industry and does not include the cost of the inputs that are also necessary to produce a good or service. Alternatively, GDP can be thought of as the sum of earnings, indirect business taxes (primarily excise and property taxes) and other operating surplus (including profits). Estimates of travel spending and travel industry GDP are shown in the chart below. Arizona travel industry GDP amounted to $7.7 billion in 2013. Arizona travel industry GDP represented 2.9 percent of the total Arizona GDP in 2013(preliminary). About 60 percent of all travel spending in Arizona is attributed to intermediate inputs and goods resold at retail. Intermediate inputs cover a range of goods and services that are purchased by travel industry businesses for the purpose of creating a product or service for the traveler. For example, lodging establishments purchase cable television services. Restaurants purchase food and beverages from vendors. In both cases, these inputs are classified as the GDP of other industries. In addition, travel spending occurs at many retail establishments where the goods purchased from the retailer are purchased as finished goods from suppliers. These resold goods are also counted as products of other industries. This would include motor fuel, groceries and most of the commodities sold at retail establishments.1 Arizona Travel Industry Gross Domestic Product, 2013p $20 Billions $15 12.2 $5.4 Earnings $10 $5 $0 $12.2 Inputs $2.3 Surplus & Taxes 5.4 5.4 2.3 2.3 Spending ($19.8) GDP ($7.7) Sources: Dean Runyan Associates, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Minnesota Implan Group. Details may not add to totals due to rounding. 1 About 38 percent of the $12.2 billion of inputs and goods resold are purchased from other Arizona businesses. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 11 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OF ARIZONA EXPORT-ORIENTED INDUSTRIES Export-oriented industries are those industries that primarily market their products and services to other regions, states or nations. 2 Agriculture, mining, and manufacturing are the best examples of export-oriented industries. Clearly, there are cases in each of these three sectors where the products are sold within the local or regional market. Nonetheless, in general most businesses within these industries depend on export markets. The travel industry is also an export-oriented industry because goods and services are sold to visitors, rather than residents. The travel industry injects money into the local economy, as do the exports of other industries. Exports are not necessarily more important than locally traded goods and services. However, diverse export-oriented industries in any economy are a source of strength – in part because they generate income that contributes to the development of other local services and amenities. Such industries characterize the “comparative advantage” of the local economy within larger regional, national and global markets. A comparison of the GDP’s of the leading export-oriented industries in Arizona is shown below. 2013 GDP of Major Arizona Export Industries Agric./Food Proc. Mining Micro-Electronics Aerospace Travel $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 Gross Domestic Product (Billions) Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Dean Runyan Associates. 2013 estimates for non-travel industries based on 2012 GDP and 2013 earnings and payroll. 2 See also pages 57 of Appendix A and page 70 of Appendix D. PAGE 12 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES DIRECT, SECONDARY AND TOTAL IMPACTS Travel spending within Arizona brings money into many Arizona communities in the form of business receipts. Portions of these receipts are spent within the state for labor and supplies. Employees, in turn, spend a portion of their earnings on goods and services in the state. This re-spending of travel-related revenues creates indirect and induced impacts. To summarize:  Direct impacts represent the employment and earnings attributable to travel expenditures made directly by travelers at businesses throughout the state.  Indirect impacts represent the employment and earnings associated with industries that supply goods and services to the direct businesses (i.e., those that receive money directly from travelers throughout the state).  Induced impacts represent the employment and earnings that result from purchases for food, housing, transportation, recreation, and other goods and services made by travel industry employees, and the employees of the indirectly affected industries. Total Employment and Earnings Generated by Travel Spending in Arizona, 2013p Employment (Thousands) Induced 103.2 Indirect 37.4 Earnings (Billions) Induced $4.1 Direct 163.5 Direct $5.4 Indirect $1.6 Note: Indirect and induced impacts estimated by Dean Runyan Associates with Minnesota IMPLAN model. Total employment was 304,000. The employment multiplier for 2013 is 1.85 (304/164). Total earnings were $11.1 billion. The earnings multiplier is 2.05 (($11.08/$5.39). DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 13 The impacts in this section are presented in terms of the employment and earnings of eleven major industry groups. These industry groups are similar, but not identical to the business service (or commodity) categories presented elsewhere in this report. (The specific industries that comprise these major groups are listed in Appendix D.) Direct travel impacts, such as those discussed in the first part of this section and the regional and county impacts presented elsewhere in this report are found in the following industry groups:  Accommodations & Food Services  Arts, Entertainment and Recreation  Retail Trade  Transportation As is indicated in the following tables and graphs, the total direct employment and earnings of these four industry groups is identical to the total direct employment and earnings shown in the first part of this section. The only difference is that these industry groups represent industry groupings (firms) rather than commodity or business service groupings. The indirect and induced impacts of travel spending are found in all eleven-industry groupings shown in the following tables and graphs. To summarize the primary secondary impacts:  Professional Services (30,000 jobs and $1.8 billion earnings). Legal, medical, educational and other professional services are utilized by travel businesses (indirect effect) and by employees of these firms (induced effect).  Other Services (12,000 jobs and $387 million earnings). Employees of travelrelated businesses purchase services from various providers, such as dry cleaners and repair shops. Similarly, travel businesses utilize a number of service providers, such as laundry, maintenance and business services.  Government (23,000 jobs and $1.3 billion earnings). Employees of travel-related businesses pay fees to attend public educational institutions and to operate motor vehicles.  Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (10,000 jobs and $502 million earnings). Employees and businesses use the services of financial institutions, insurers and real estate businesses. PAGE 14 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Direct and Secondary Employment Generated by Travel Spending in Arizona, 2013p Accomm. & Food Serv. Arts, Entertain., Rec. Retail Trade Transportation Prof. Services Government Other Services Finance, Ins., & Real… Construction Mining & Manufacturing Agric.& Food Processing Direct 0 20 Secondary 40 60 80 100 Direct and Secondary Employment (Thousands) Direct and Secondary Earnings Generated by Travel Spending in Arizona, 2013p Accomm. & Food Serv. Transportation Prof. Services Government Arts, Entertain., Rec. Retail Trade Construction Finance, Ins., & Real Estate Other Services Mining & Manufacturing Agric.& Food Processing Direct $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 Secondary $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 Direct and Secondary Earnings (Billions) See notes at end of table on page 20. Detailed estimates are reported in the following table. It should be emphasized that the estimates of indirect and induced impacts reported here apply to the entire state of Arizona and do not necessarily reflect economic patterns for individual counties, regions or subregions within the state. While total economic impacts can be calculated on a county or regional level, such a detailed analysis is not included in this study. In general, geographic areas with lower levels of aggregate economic activity will have smaller secondary impacts within those same geographic boundaries. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 15 Direct & Secondary Visitor-Generated Employment in Arizona, 2013p (thousand jobs) Industry Group Accomm. & Food Serv. Arts, Entertain., Rec. Retail Trade Transportation Prof. Services Government Other Services Finance, Ins., & Real Estate Construction Mining & Manufacturing Agric.& Food Processing All Industries Direct 85 37 15 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 164 Secondary Indirect Induced 4 8 5 2 3 17 5 4 8 23 1 22 5 8 4 7 1 10 1 2 1 1 37 103 Total 12 8 20 9 30 23 12 10 10 4 2 141 Grand Total 98 45 35 35 30 23 12 10 10 4 2 304 Direct & Secondary Visitor-Generated Earnings in Arizona, 2013p ($ Million) Industry Group Accomm. & Food Serv. Transportation Prof. Services Government Arts, Entertain., Rec. Retail Trade Construction Finance, Ins., & Real Estate Other Services Mining & Manufacturing Agric.& Food Processing All Industries Direct 2,309 1,631 0 0 997 458 0 0 0 0 0 5,394 Secondary Indirect Induced 73 165 123 36 520 1,244 85 1,180 196 56 13 140 48 562 175 326 186 201 109 179 32 35 1,560 4,125 Total 238 160 1,764 1,265 252 153 611 502 387 287 67 5,685 Grand Total 2,546 1,791 1,764 1,265 1,249 611 611 502 387 287 67 11,079 Source: Dean Runyan Associates and Minnesota Implan Group. Note: These industry groups are not equivalent to the categories used in the direct impact tables used in this report. See Appendix D. Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Detailed direct travel impacts for 2002 through 2013p are shown on the following page. PAGE 16 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Arizona Direct Travel Impacts, 2004-2013p 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013p Total Direct Travel Spending ($Billion) Destination Spending 13.5 15.7 15.8 15.5 16.4 17.0 17.4 Other Travel* 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 Total Direct Spending 15.2 17.8 18.0 17.5 18.5 19.3 19.8 Visitor Spending by Type of Traveler Accommodation ($Billion) Hotel, Motel 6.4 7.7 7.3 7.0 7.4 7.6 7.9 Private Home 3.0 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 Campground 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 Vacation Home 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Day Travel 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.8 Destination Spending 13.5 15.7 15.8 15.5 16.4 17.0 17.4 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Billion) Accommodations 2.3 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 Food Service 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 Food Stores 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 Local Tran. & Gas 2.1 2.8 3.2 3.0 3.6 3.7 3.7 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 Retail Sales 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 Visitor Air Tran. 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 Destination Spending 13.5 15.7 15.8 15.5 16.4 17.0 17.4 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Billion) Accom. & Food Serv. 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 Retail** 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Ground Tran. 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Visitor Air Tran. 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Other Travel* 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 Total Direct Earnings 4.3 4.9 5.1 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.4 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 78.5 83.4 82.9 79.6 81.5 83.0 85.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 36.4 38.5 37.3 35.3 35.4 36.5 37.1 Retail** 18.3 19.6 19.9 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.7 Ground Tran. 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 Visitor Air Tran. 7.7 8.2 7.8 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.2 Other Travel* 14.2 15.1 14.0 12.4 12.7 14.3 13.5 Total Direct Employment 158.5 168.5 165.1 154.3 157.0 161.3 163.5 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million)*** Local Tax Receipts 637 728 748 727 774 790 786 State Tax Receipts 615 698 704 706 770 799 791 Federal Tax Receipts 917 1,049 1,074 1,063 1,011 1,048 1,153 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 2,169 2,475 2,526 2,496 2,555 2,638 2,730 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. ***Local and State tax revenues include property taxes and taxes attributable to travel industry employees. These tax receipts are not included in the county breakouts. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 17 III. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE This section of the report provides an analysis of the state and local government revenue supported by the travel industry. Most major sources of government revenue, including sales, property and income taxes are included. The pie chart below, adapted from the Bureau of the Census’ State and Local Government Finance and other data sources, shows the main categories of tax revenue in Arizona. About one-half of all state and local tax revenue in Arizona is derived from sales or gross receipts taxes.1 Three-fourths of all sales taxes are collected by the state. The next largest category is property taxes -- paid primarily by homeowners and businesses to local governments.2 All income taxes (80 percent paid by individuals) are collected by the state. Arizona State and Local Government Tax Revenues Property $6.3 27.5% Income $4.5 19.7% 2012-13 Fiscal Year (Billion) License & Other $0.8 3.4% Sales & Gross Receipts $11.3 49.4% Sources: The 2011-12 fiscal year estimates of state and local tax revenues in Arizona were prepared by Dean Runyan Associates from various sources, including the Bureau of the Census (State and Local Government Finance), the Arizona Department of Revenue, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and a selection of annual financial reports for cities and counties. The state transaction privilege tax is designated as a general sales tax. Over 90 percent of all property taxes are local. About 80 percent of all income tax receipts are personal (vs. corporate). Selective sales taxes include taxes on lodging, motor fuel, alcohol, tobacco and public utilities. Other taxes include license taxes. State tax receipts comprise 60 percent of all state and local tax receipts. The primary sources of travel industry tax revenue are:  Sales tax receipts generated by visitor spending. This includes local and state sales taxes, lodging taxes, and motor fuel taxes. Other selective sales taxes (e.g., cigarettes, liquor) were not estimated separately from the general sales tax. 1 The state transaction privilege tax is considered a sales tax in this report. Businesses pay 62 percent of all property taxes in Arizona based on calculations by Dean Runyan Associates from data reported by the Bureau of the Census, State and Local Government Finance and Property Taxes on Business Capital, Ernst and Young (March 2006). 2 PAGE 18 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES  Taxes paid by travel industry employees attributable to travel generated earnings (sales, property and income taxes). The estimates for these taxes were based primarily on the share of travel industry earnings in relation to total personal income in the state.  Taxes paid by travel industry businesses attributable to travel generated business receipts (property and income taxes). The estimates for these taxes were based primarily on the share of travel industry earnings in relation to total earnings in the state. Other business taxes, such as licenses and payroll taxes, were not included. The distribution of taxes generated by the travel industry for the 2012-13 fiscal year is shown in the following pie chart. The categories are the same as the preceding figure, with the exception that sales tax receipts are also distinguished between those that are generated by visitor spending and those that are generated by the spending of travel industry employees. Arizona Travel Industry State and Local Government Tax Revenues 2012-13 Fiscal Year (Million) Income $110 7.1% Employee Sales $220 14.1% Property Other $20 $150 1.3% 9.6% Trav-Gen. Sales $1,060 67.9% Source: Dean Runyan Associates. “Other” travel-generated tax revenue includes gaming taxes. Whereas slightly less than one-half of all state and local tax revenue in Arizona was attributable to sales tax collections in the 2012-13 fiscal year, more than 80 percent of all travel industry tax revenue was attributable to sales tax receipts from visitors (68.2 percent) and the purchases of employees in the travel industry (14.4 percent). More than two-thirds of all tax revenues supported by the travel industry were directly related to visitor spending. Travel industry state and local tax revenues are compared to total Arizona state and local tax revenues in the following table. Because the travel industry generates a relatively high proportion of sales tax revenues, it is associated with proportionately more tax revenues than would be expected given the size of the industry, as measured by earnings or gross domestic product. Whereas the earnings and GDP of the travel industry are in the range of DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 19 3 percent of the state totals, travel industry tax revenues represent almost 7 percent of all state and local tax revenues in Arizona. Arizona State and Local Tax Revenues 2012-13 Fiscal Year ($Million) Sales & Gross Receipts Income Property License & Other Total Tax Receipts Travel Total Generated 11,330 1,280 4,520 110 6,310 150 780 20 22,940 15,560 Percent Travel 11.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 6.8% Source: Dean Runyan Associates and Bureau of the Census, State and Local Government Finance. The tax revenue benefits of the travel industry are also borne out in comparison with other industries. This is illustrated in the table and figure below. The concept of Gross Domestic Product was discussed earlier (page 11; see also appendix A). The tax payment categories are defined as follows:  Indirect Business Taxes (IBT) include all property taxes, licenses, fees and sales taxes paid by the firm to all levels of government. Business income taxes are not included. Overall, sales taxes are the largest component. Even though consumers normally paid these taxes at the point of sale, they are defined as indirect business taxes in terms of GDP. Indirect Business Taxes are an official category of Gross Domestic Product, as defined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  Employee Property and Income Taxes (EPIT) include the state and local property and income taxes paid by employees. These personal tax payments are estimated by Dean Runyan Associates on the basis of industry earnings and tax revenue data. EPIT is not an official category. The tax payments generated by the travel industry in relation to Gross Domestic Product are greater than all industries except retail trade. Retail trade tax payments are especially high, of course, because of sales tax payments. However, in contrast to the travel industry, the sales taxes paid by retail establishments are primarily taxes on residents rather than visitors. PAGE 20 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES GDP and Tax Payments of Selected Arizona Industries 2012 Calendar Year ($Million) Construction Health Care Manufacturing Retail Travel All Industries Indirect Bus. Taxes 300 461 652 3,739 1,301 16,833 GDP 12,857 20,620 21,934 19,911 7,569 266,891 Employee Inc. Sum of Bus. & & Prop. Taxes Employee Taxes 223 523 336 797 306 959 463 4,203 131 1,432 5,853 22,685 Tax Payments as Percent of GDP for Selected Arizona Industries 2012 Calendar Year Construction IBT Health Care EPIT Manufacturing Retail Travel All Industries 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Percent of Gross Domestic Product Table and graph sources: Bureau and Economic Analysis and Dean Runyan Associates. Travel industry and employee income and property tax payments estimated by Dean Runyan Associates. Other GDP and Indirect Business Taxes estimated by Bureau of Economic Analysis. *Travel Industry Business & Employee tax payments of $1,432 million are lower than the estimate on page 19 because business income taxes are not included and because employee sales tax payments are included in the indirect business taxes of other industries (especially retail trade). This is consistent with GDP accounting. It is also important to recognize that the local and state tax revenues generated by travel spending are proportionately more important for non-urban areas. There are two reasons for this. First, the travel industry generally comprises a larger proportion of the economy in non-urban areas. Second, counties and municipalities impose special excise taxes on visitors (lodging, eating and drinking establishments, auto rentals) that are disproportionately borne by visitors, rather than residents. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 21 The first point is illustrated in the chart below, where the percentage of the state transaction privilege tax generated by travel spending for two groups of counties is displayed. Maricopa and Pima counties – the most urbanized counties in the state – generate relatively lower tax impacts from visitor spending than do the less urbanized counties in the state. State Transaction Privilege Taxes Generated By Direct Travel Spending, 2013 FY Maricopa & Pima All Other Counties 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Percent Travel-Generated Source: Dean Runyan Associates and Arizona Department of Revenue. Detailed estimates for each county are also shown. The visitor-related share of local excise taxes would generally be somewhat higher, due to local taxes on lodging, eating and drinking, and auto rentals, as noted above. State Transaction Privilege Taxes Generated by Direct Travel Spending, 2013 FY Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham/Greenlee La Paz Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Percent Travel-Generated Source: Dean Runyan Associates and Arizona Department of Revenue. These estimates represent the total state transaction privilege tax receipts generated by travel spending. Counties and municipalities generally are allocated a portion of these receipts based on resident population. Other county and municipal excise taxes are also imposed on visitors. PAGE 22 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES To summarize this analysis of travel-generated state and local government revenue:  The travel industry accounted for almost seven percent of all state and local tax revenues in Arizona in the 2012-13 fiscal year – more than twice the industry proportion of statewide earnings and gross domestic product.  Most of the travel industry tax receipts are a result of visitor spending rather than taxes on Arizona residents.  The proportion of tax receipts generated by the Arizona travel industry in relation to industry GDP is twice as great as the statewide industry average.  The tax revenues generated by the travel industry are relatively more important for the non-urban areas of the state as compared to the urbanized areas of greater Phoenix and Tucson. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 23 IV: REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACTS 1998-2013P NORTHERN ARIZONA WEST COAST ARIZONA NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA PHOENIX & CENTRAL ARIZONA TICSON & SOUTHERN ARIZONA The Northern Arizona region includes Apache, Coconino and Navajo counties. West Coast Arizona includes La Paz, Mohave and Yuma counties. North Central Arizona includes Gila and Yavapai counties. Phoenix and Central Arizona includes Maricopa and Pinal counties. Tucson and Southern Arizona includes Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Pima and Santa Cruz counties. PAGE 24 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES 2013p Arizona Regional Travel Impacts Travel Spending Total Visitor Northern Arizona West Coast Arizona North Central Arizona Phoenix & Central Arizona Tucson & Southern Arizona Arizona Earnings Related Travel-Generated Impacts Employment Local Taxes State Taxes Total Taxes ($Million) ($Million) ($Million) (jobs) ($Million) ($Million) ($Million) 1,491 1,337 992 12,608 3,384 19,811 1,405 1,205 916 9,565 2,799 ** 404 302 239 3,727 722 5,394 16,260 13,120 10,330 94,350 29,470 163,530 62 47 33 515 130 786 68 59 44 481 140 791 129 106 76 996 270 1,578 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. **The sum of regional visitor spending is less than statewide visitor spending because a portion of ground transportation is allocated to “other travel” at the regional level. See appendix, page 56. Arizona Regional Total Travel Spending, 1998-2013p ($ Millions) Annual Percent Chg. Northern Arizona West Coast Arizona North Central Arizona Phoenix & Central Arizona Tucson & Southern Arizona Arizona 1998 2000 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013p 917 1,057 997 1,091 1,183 1,246 1,289 1,395 1,261 1,336 1,409 1,472 1,491 792 904 952 1,062 1,149 1,228 1,223 1,272 1,220 1,245 1,313 1,337 1,337 568 687 691 739 822 873 909 910 829 874 921 974 992 7,219 8,366 7,842 9,281 10,356 11,076 11,331 11,109 9,977 10,844 11,583 12,081 12,608 2,337 2,703 2,698 3,015 3,300 3,380 3,365 3,274 3,078 3,181 3,238 3,426 3,384 11,832 13,716 13,180 15,188 16,809 17,802 18,118 17,960 16,364 17,479 18,464 19,290 19,811 12-13p 1.3 0.0 1.8 4.4 -1.2 2.7 98-13p 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.8 2.5 3.5 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 25 Arizona Regional Travel-Generated Earnings, 1998-2013p ($ Millions) Annual Percent Chg. Northern Arizona West Coast Arizona North Central Arizona Phoenix & Central Arizona Tucson & Southern Arizona Arizona 1998 257 194 155 2,254 503 3,363 2000 289 215 184 2,610 577 3,874 2002 276 233 187 2,497 599 3,792 2004 300 254 195 2,887 647 4,283 2005 313 265 212 3,095 697 4,583 2006 333 291 230 3,375 717 4,945 2007 361 296 245 3,537 731 5,171 2008 390 309 246 3,420 708 5,073 2009 366 307 227 3,248 683 4,831 2010 375 293 221 3,352 677 4,917 2011 385 295 219 3,537 682 5,117 2012 2013p 398 404 297 302 232 239 3,664 3,727 740 722 5,331 5,394 12-13p 1.5 1.6 3.1 1.7 -2.4 1.2 98-13p 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.4 2.4 3.2 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. Arizona Regional Travel-Generated Employment, 1998-2013p (thousands) Annual Percent Chg. Northern Arizona West Coast Arizona North Central Arizona Phoenix & Central Arizona Tucson & Southern Arizona Arizona 1998 16.2 11.8 9.5 87.2 28.0 152.7 2000 16.8 12.0 10.2 90.8 30.2 160.0 2002 15.2 12.9 11.3 81.6 30.1 151.1 2004 15.4 13.0 10.9 87.7 31.5 158.5 2005 15.8 13.4 11.2 91.7 32.7 164.8 2006 15.7 14.5 11.3 94.2 32.7 168.5 2007 16.0 13.8 11.4 95.0 31.8 167.9 2008 16.8 13.7 11.5 93.2 30.0 165.1 2009 15.7 13.5 10.6 87.2 29.1 156.2 2010 16.0 13.0 10.2 86.7 28.4 154.3 2011 16.1 13.1 10.1 89.3 28.3 157.0 2012 2013p 16.1 16.3 13.1 13.1 10.4 10.3 92.1 94.3 29.6 29.5 161.3 163.5 11-13p 1.1 0.2 -0.7 2.4 -0.4 1.4 98-13p 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. Travel-Generated Employment and Earnings as Percent of Total, 2013p Northern Arizona West Coast Arizona North Central Arizona Phoenix & Central Arizona Tucson & Southern Arizona Arizona Total PAGE 26 Employment (thousands) Percent Total Travel Travel 155.7 16.3 10.4% 153.1 13.1 8.6% 105.5 10.3 9.8% 2,394.3 94.3 3.9% 586.7 29.5 5.0% 3,395.4 163.5 4.8% Earnings (Million) Total $6,112 $6,368 $3,756 $125,654 $27,101 $168,990 Travel $404 $302 $239 $3,727 $722 $5,394 Percent Travel 6.6% 4.7% 6.4% 3.0% 2.7% 3.2% Source: Dean Runyan Associates, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total and travel-generated employment estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Northern Arizona Travel Impacts, 2004-2013p 2004 2006 2008 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 1,039 1,182 1,321 Other Travel* 52 64 74 Total Direct Spending 1,091 1,246 1,395 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 624 722 780 Private Home 111 131 141 Campground 40 43 86 Vacation Home 75 82 89 Day Travel 188 204 225 Destination Spending 1,039 1,182 1,321 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 271 316 362 Food Service 248 276 306 Food Stores 65 69 84 Local Tran. & Gas 95 130 176 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 166 173 182 Retail Sales 188 203 203 Visitor Air Tran. 6 15 8 Destination Spending 1,039 1,182 1,321 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 180 199 243 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 70 76 84 Retail** 37 42 47 Visitor Air Tran. 4 8 6 Other Travel* 9 8 11 Total Direct Earnings 300 333 390 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 9.5 9.4 10.2 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 3.8 4.1 4.2 Retail** 1.7 1.8 1.9 Visitor Air Tran. 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other Travel* 0.3 0.3 0.3 Total Direct Employment 15.4 15.7 16.8 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 46.1 51.5 60.8 State Tax Receipts 51.1 56.6 63.7 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 97.3 108.0 124.5 2010 2011 2012 2013p 1,266 70 1,336 1,327 82 1,409 1,385 87 1,472 1,405 86 1,491 764 145 48 89 220 1,266 795 157 50 93 230 1,327 840 161 50 96 239 1,385 858 158 51 96 241 1,405 344 309 76 150 176 198 13 1,266 361 315 80 181 177 198 14 1,327 381 331 83 190 181 205 14 1,385 396 341 84 183 184 204 13 1,405 231 91 39 6 7 375 231 99 40 6 8 385 244 100 40 5 8 398 251 100 40 5 8 404 9.8 4.2 1.6 0.1 0.2 16.0 9.9 4.2 1.6 0.1 0.2 16.1 10.0 4.1 1.6 0.1 0.2 16.1 10.1 4.3 1.5 0.1 0.3 16.3 58.0 61.8 119.9 61.7 67.6 129.4 64.0 70.5 134.5 61.7 67.7 129.4 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. Northern Arizona includes Apache, Coconino and Navajo counties. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 27 West Coast Arizona Travel Impacts, 2004-2013p 2004 2006 2008 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 994 1,133 1,150 Other Travel* 68 95 122 Total Direct Spending 1,062 1,228 1,272 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 226 289 259 Private Home 189 224 247 Campground 95 112 125 Vacation Home 81 91 99 Day Travel 404 418 420 Destination Spending 994 1,133 1,150 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 113 146 135 Food Service 208 240 245 Food Stores 119 120 128 Local Tran. & Gas 96 138 167 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 223 252 251 Retail Sales 226 227 212 Visitor Air Tran. 9 10 12 Destination Spending 994 1,133 1,150 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 103 123 130 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 87 103 106 Retail** 52 55 56 Visitor Air Tran. 3 0 0 Other Travel* 9 10 16 Total Direct Earnings 254 291 309 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 6.0 6.7 6.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 4.7 5.3 4.6 Retail** 1.9 2.1 2.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.1 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.3 0.4 0.6 Total Direct Employment 13.0 14.5 13.7 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 40.2 44.6 46.7 State Tax Receipts 47.7 54.5 55.4 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 87.9 99.1 102.1 2010 2011 2012 2013p 1,137 108 1,245 1,189 125 1,313 1,205 132 1,337 1,205 132 1,337 253 250 126 98 410 1,137 278 264 133 103 411 1,189 277 265 128 105 429 1,205 266 275 120 106 438 1,205 124 259 124 156 251 211 12 1,137 133 266 126 187 259 206 12 1,189 132 271 131 191 255 214 12 1,205 128 278 135 184 249 218 12 1,205 136 95 50 1 11 293 140 94 49 1 11 295 137 98 49 0 12 297 145 93 49 0 14 302 6.6 4.2 1.8 0.0 0.4 13.0 6.8 4.2 1.7 0.0 0.4 13.1 6.4 4.5 1.7 0.0 0.4 13.1 6.8 4.2 1.7 0.0 0.5 13.1 45.3 55.6 101.0 47.8 59.7 107.5 48.2 60.5 108.8 46.6 59.0 105.5 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. West Coast Arizona includes La Paz, Mohave and Yuma counties. PAGE 28 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES North Central Arizona Travel Impacts, 2004-2012p 2004 2006 2008 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 694 813 843 Other Travel* 45 60 67 Total Direct Spending 739 873 910 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 218 289 277 Private Home 88 105 115 Campground 21 17 26 Vacation Home 31 35 38 Day Travel 336 368 388 Destination Spending 694 813 843 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 102 136 139 Food Service 130 152 157 Food Stores 52 55 62 Local Tran. & Gas 61 86 106 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 244 269 268 Retail Sales 105 114 110 Visitor Air Tran. 0 1 0 Destination Spending 694 813 843 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 79 96 107 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 86 98 102 Retail** 23 27 28 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 7 8 9 Total Direct Earnings 195 230 246 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 4.3 4.6 4.7 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 5.3 5.3 5.2 Retail** 1.0 1.1 1.2 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.4 0.4 0.3 Total Direct Employment 10.9 11.3 11.5 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 24.4 28.8 31.2 State Tax Receipts 31.8 38.5 40.0 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 56.2 67.4 71.2 2010 2011 2012 2013p 812 61 874 851 70 921 899 75 974 916 75 992 250 117 25 37 382 812 261 127 27 39 398 851 293 130 27 40 408 899 309 129 27 40 410 916 121 161 61 97 261 111 1 812 126 166 64 117 263 113 1 851 142 176 66 124 273 116 2 899 151 183 67 120 277 117 1 916 96 93 25 0 7 221 100 87 25 0 6 219 111 89 25 0 6 232 121 85 25 0 8 239 4.2 4.7 1.0 0.0 0.3 10.2 4.3 4.6 1.0 0.0 0.2 10.1 4.6 4.6 1.0 0.0 0.2 10.4 4.8 4.3 1.0 0.0 0.2 10.3 29.9 39.0 68.9 31.8 41.9 73.7 33.5 44.2 77.7 32.9 43.6 76.4 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. North Central Arizona includes Gila and Yavapai counties. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 29 Phoenix & Central Arizona Travel Impacts, 2002-2013p 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 7,346 8,615 8,491 8,416 8,910 9,195 Other Travel* 1,935 2,460 2,619 2,428 2,672 2,886 Total Direct Spending 9,281 11,076 11,109 10,844 11,583 12,081 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 3,953 4,788 4,489 4,306 4,559 4,649 Private Home 1,924 2,227 2,339 2,453 2,573 2,585 Campground 252 210 198 154 177 297 Vacation Home 244 283 322 334 347 356 Day Travel 973 1,107 1,144 1,169 1,255 1,308 Destination Spending 7,346 8,615 8,491 8,416 8,910 9,195 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 1,376 1,742 1,673 1,399 1,507 1,559 Food Service 1,589 1,818 1,828 1,962 2,056 2,143 Food Stores 263 275 294 296 318 342 Local Tran. & Gas 810 1,012 1,081 1,078 1,226 1,289 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 1,081 1,178 1,126 1,139 1,173 1,198 Retail Sales 1,217 1,325 1,233 1,292 1,339 1,360 Visitor Air Tran. 1,011 1,266 1,257 1,250 1,290 1,305 Destination Spending 7,346 8,615 8,491 8,416 8,910 9,195 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 998 1,166 1,248 1,213 1,274 1,320 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 467 533 533 531 537 583 Retail** 204 231 228 212 225 226 Ground Tran. 88 101 95 102 109 111 Visitor Air Tran. 475 565 542 560 607 593 Other Travel* 655 779 774 735 786 831 Total Direct Earnings 2,887 3,375 3,420 3,352 3,537 3,664 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 41.0 44.1 44.6 42.6 44.0 44.8 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 16.9 17.9 17.8 16.6 16.9 17.8 Retail** 6.7 7.1 7.1 6.5 6.6 6.6 Ground Tran. 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 Visitor Air Tran. 7.4 7.8 7.4 6.7 7.0 7.2 Other Travel* 13.1 14.5 13.6 11.8 12.1 13.0 Total Direct Employment 87.7 94.2 93.2 86.7 89.3 92.1 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 406.3 467.1 474.5 465.1 501.6 510.4 State Tax Receipts 359.6 411.6 414.9 418.4 462.8 479.7 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 765.9 878.7 889.5 883.5 964.4 990.2 2013p 9,565 3,043 12,608 4,846 2,692 320 362 1,345 9,565 1,628 2,246 356 1,303 1,230 1,392 1,411 9,565 1,375 625 227 113 551 836 3,727 46.5 18.9 6.8 2.8 6.9 12.4 94.3 514.8 481.1 995.9 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. Phoenix & Central Arizona includes Maricopa and Pinal counties. PAGE 30 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Tucson & Southern Arizona Travel Impacts, 2004-2013p 2004 2006 2008 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 2,609 2,883 2,719 Other Travel* 406 497 555 Total Direct Spending 3,015 3,380 3,274 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 1,075 1,262 1,114 Private Home 468 528 569 Campground 35 67 49 Vacation Home 46 51 56 Day Travel 986 975 932 Destination Spending 2,609 2,883 2,719 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 392 487 428 Food Service 592 658 616 Food Stores 299 287 290 Local Tran. & Gas 286 362 364 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 207 224 209 Retail Sales 663 656 590 Visitor Air Tran. 170 210 223 Destination Spending 2,609 2,883 2,719 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 341 385 383 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 87 98 95 Retail** 134 137 131 Ground Tran. 27 30 25 Visitor Air Tran. 5 10 12 Other Travel* 52 57 63 Total Direct Earnings 647 717 708 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 17.7 18.7 16.9 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 5.8 6.0 5.4 Retail** 5.2 5.1 4.8 Ground Tran. 0.8 0.8 0.7 Visitor Air Tran. 0.1 0.2 0.2 Other Travel* 1.9 1.9 2.0 Total Direct Employment 31.5 32.7 30.0 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 120.0 135.8 134.9 State Tax Receipts 124.5 136.9 130.1 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 244.6 272.7 265.0 2010 2011 2012 2013p 2,671 510 3,181 2,667 571 3,238 2,771 655 3,426 2,799 585 3,384 1,097 575 42 56 901 2,671 1,093 597 45 59 874 2,667 1,118 600 46 60 947 2,771 1,128 590 46 60 974 2,799 391 652 274 355 211 584 204 2,671 388 651 265 393 210 557 203 2,667 394 682 289 411 212 585 199 2,771 397 699 302 403 211 597 190 2,799 375 94 117 27 11 53 677 385 92 113 28 10 55 682 410 93 116 29 9 83 740 416 94 116 29 7 60 722 16.4 5.5 4.1 0.7 0.2 1.5 28.4 16.5 5.4 4.0 0.7 0.2 1.4 28.3 17.2 5.4 4.0 0.7 0.2 2.1 29.6 17.3 5.5 4.0 0.7 0.1 1.8 29.5 128.5 131.4 259.9 130.7 138.2 268.9 134.3 144.3 278.5 130.3 140.0 270.3 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. Tucson & Southern Arizona includes Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Pima and Santa Cruz counties. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 31 V: COUNTY TRAVEL IMPACTS 1998-2013P APACHE COCONINO MOHAVE NAVAJO YAVAPAI LA PAZ GILA GREENLEE MARICOPA PINAL GRAHAM YUMA PIMA COCHISE SANTA CRUZ PAGE 32 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES The analysis of travel impacts at the county level provides a valuable overview of how the economic benefits of travel and tourism are distributed throughout the state. Urban areas, such as Maricopa County, tend to have highly developed travel industry infrastructure consisting of large inventories of amusement and recreation opportunities, commercial accommodations, and well-developed transportation links. Hotel/motel guests are important to these areas and, hence, a large proportion of travel expenditures are spent on overnight lodging. In many of the less urbanized areas of Arizona, however, the economic significance of travel and tourism is actually relatively more important. The infrastructure that serves visitors to Maricopa County also serves local residents. Most of the spending on recreation and food services in Maricopa county is by local residents. This is not the case in most other less urbanized areas of the state – leisure and hospitality businesses are generally much more dependent on visitor spending rather than local residents. In the graph below, the two most populous counties in Arizona, Maricopa and Pima, are compared with the thirteen other counties in the state with respect to their share of total employment – two-thirds of all travel-generated jobs in the state are in the two most populous counties. Distribution of Travel-Generated Employment, 2013p Percent of State Direct Travel-Generated Employment All other 32% Maricopa & Pima 68% Source: Dean Runyan Associates, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total and travel-generated employments estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 33 However, as a group the less urbanized counties in the state actually have a higher proportion of travel-generated employment in relation to the total employment of the county. This is shown graphically below. Four percent of all employment in Maricopa and Pima counties is travel-generated. By contrast, the proportion is more than double in for the other Arizona counties. Percent of Total Area Employment that is Travel-Generated, 2013p Maricopa & Pima All other 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: Dean Runyan Associates, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total and travel-generated employment estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Travel-generate employment in Maricopa and Pima counties constitutes 4.0 percent of all employment in those counties. The comparable figure for other Arizona counties is 8.9 percent. In general, the employment and earnings estimates provided in the preceding figures are probably the best measure at the county level of the relative importance of travel and tourism for local economies. The following table provides estimates for individual counties. Total employment includes all full-time and part-time wage and salary employment and self-employment. Because total employment includes all jobs, regardless of the hours worked, the average annual earnings of the job or the number of individuals employed, this indicator is in some respects less useful than earnings estimates. Nonetheless, the distribution of counties is similar for earnings and employment. PAGE 34 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Travel-Generated Employment and Earnings as Percent of Total, 2013p Employment Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham/Greenlee La Paz Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma Arizona Total Total 30,010 55,770 85,400 21,990 17,130 7,640 2,310,370 62,320 40,330 495,230 83,910 18,590 83,540 83,190 3,395,390 Travel 1,460 3,720 11,210 2,610 1,300 1,440 88,490 5,860 3,590 22,380 5,850 2,080 7,720 5,820 163,530 Earnings (Million) Percent Travel 4.9% 6.7% 13.1% 11.9% 7.6% 18.8% 3.8% 9.4% 8.9% 4.5% 7.0% 11.2% 9.2% 7.0% 4.8% Total $1,090 $2,710 $3,492 $820 $838 $341 $122,230 $2,435 $1,530 $22,588 $3,425 $965 $2,935 $3,592 $168,990 Travel $28 $77 $292 $59 $18 $34 $3,594 $132 $84 $577 $133 $50 $180 $136 $5,394 Percent Travel 2.6% 2.9% 8.4% 7.2% 2.2% 9.9% 2.9% 5.4% 5.5% 2.6% 3.9% 5.1% 6.1% 3.8% 3.2% Source: Dean Runyan Associates, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total and travel-generated employment estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Note: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. Detailed direct travel impact estimates for 1998 through 2013p can be found on the following pages. As noted in the appendix to this report, county level estimates are necessarily less reliable than the statewide estimates. Furthermore, estimates for the smallest counties are less reliable than those for larger counties due to survey sample sizes and other data limitations. For this reason, small changes in year-to-year estimates are less important than longer-term trends. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 35 2013p Arizona County Travel Impacts Travel Spending Total Visitor Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham/Greenlee La Paz Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma Arizona Earnings Related Travel-Generated Impacts Employment Local Taxes State Taxes Total Taxes ($Million) ($Million) ($Million) (jobs) ($Million) ($Million) ($Million) 116 342 1,068 281 87 144 11,984 563 306 2,667 624 287 711 629 19,811 100 311 1,022 269 76 140 9,030 495 282 2,135 535 277 647 570 ** 28 77 292 59 18 34 3,594 132 84 577 133 50 180 136 5,394 1,460 3,720 11,210 2,610 1,300 1,440 88,490 5,860 3,590 22,380 5,850 2,080 7,720 5,820 163,530 4.6 15.2 44.6 8.3 3.5 4.9 492.3 19.3 12.4 100.2 22.5 11.4 24.5 22.4 786.2 5.6 16.1 47.5 12.3 4.2 6.4 451.4 24.7 14.6 107.8 29.7 11.9 31.3 27.8 791.3 10.2 31.4 92.1 20.6 7.6 11.3 943.7 44.0 27.1 207.9 52.2 23.4 55.8 50.2 1,577.5 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. **The sum of county visitor spending is less than statewide visitor spending because a portion of county ground transportation is allocated to “other travel” at the county level. See appendix, page 56. PAGE 36 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Arizona County Total Travel Spending, 1998-2013p ($ Millions) Annual Percent Chg. 1998 2000 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013p Apache 83 104 99 101 115 122 123 147 119 121 126 129 116 Cochise 226 269 271 311 331 340 367 375 352 369 360 350 342 Coconino 639 704 667 758 812 845 885 939 879 940 994 1,039 1,068 Gila 195 218 213 228 248 260 269 260 245 256 265 279 281 Graham/Greenlee 36 44 40 42 49 62 65 67 52 61 70 75 87 La Paz 105 114 117 122 134 127 130 133 130 128 139 143 144 Maricopa 6,997 8,114 7,570 8,960 9,993 10,659 10,851 10,584 9,480 10,257 10,946 11,450 11,984 Mohave 310 351 377 422 459 516 504 515 478 514 527 539 563 Navajo 195 249 231 232 256 280 281 308 262 275 288 305 306 Pima 1,832 2,110 2,098 2,362 2,618 2,697 2,649 2,550 2,380 2,489 2,570 2,730 2,667 Pinal 222 252 272 320 362 417 480 526 497 587 637 631 624 Santa Cruz 242 280 289 299 302 281 284 282 294 262 239 271 287 Yavapai 372 469 477 510 573 613 640 651 584 617 655 695 711 Yuma 377 439 458 518 556 585 590 624 611 604 647 655 629 Arizona 11,832 13,716 13,180 15,188 16,809 17,802 18,118 17,960 16,364 17,479 18,464 19,290 19,811 12-13p -9.4 -2.1 2.8 0.6 15.3 1.1 4.7 4.5 0.5 -2.3 -1.2 6.1 2.3 -4.0 2.7 98-13p 2.3 2.8 3.5 2.4 6.0 2.1 3.7 4.1 3.1 2.5 7.1 1.2 4.4 3.5 3.5 Note: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 37 Arizona County Travel-Generated Earnings, 1998-2013p ($ Millions) Annual Percent Chg. Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham/Greenlee La Paz Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma Arizona 1998 20 50 189 50 8 23 2,200 85 48 401 54 44 105 86 3,363 2000 24 57 204 54 10 25 2,551 94 60 460 58 49 129 97 3,874 2002 24 59 195 54 9 26 2,431 104 57 479 65 52 133 103 3,792 2004 23 67 221 56 9 26 2,814 110 56 517 73 54 139 118 4,283 2005 25 70 228 61 11 28 3,014 116 59 563 81 54 152 120 4,583 2006 27 73 240 65 14 27 3,281 133 66 579 94 52 165 131 4,945 2007 29 82 265 68 15 28 3,425 133 68 580 112 54 177 135 5,171 2008 32 84 282 66 15 29 3,298 136 76 555 122 54 180 144 5,073 2009 31 81 266 63 12 29 3,128 133 69 536 121 54 164 145 4,831 2010 30 80 268 56 13 28 3,226 121 76 535 127 49 165 143 4,917 2011 30 78 277 55 14 31 3,407 120 77 547 130 44 164 144 5,117 2012 2013p 31 28 77 77 281 292 58 59 15 18 31 34 3,528 3,594 120 132 85 84 602 577 135 133 47 50 174 180 146 136 5,331 5,394 12-13p -10.3 1.2 3.7 2.5 21.2 7.1 1.9 10.5 -1.4 -4.1 -1.9 5.8 3.3 -6.8 1.2 98-13p 2.3 3.0 2.9 1.1 5.2 2.5 3.3 3.0 3.8 2.5 6.2 0.8 3.7 3.1 3.2 Note: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. PAGE 38 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Arizona County Travel-Generated Employment, 1998-2013p Annual Percent Chg. 1998 2000 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013p Apache 1,550 1,630 1,530 1,520 1,610 1,590 1,580 1,700 1,640 1,630 1,610 1,560 1,460 Cochise 3,690 3,930 3,800 3,930 4,030 4,110 4,380 4,340 4,120 4,050 3,890 3,740 3,720 Coconino 11,220 11,180 10,240 10,740 10,950 10,750 11,100 11,520 10,900 10,850 10,980 10,870 11,210 Gila 3,150 3,120 3,220 3,040 3,130 3,160 3,120 3,000 2,940 2,660 2,670 2,660 2,610 Graham/Greenlee 40 40 40 40 50 60 70 70 50 60 70 80 90 La Paz 1,500 1,420 1,350 1,290 1,350 1,200 1,220 1,220 1,230 1,200 1,320 1,310 1,440 Maricopa 84,020 87,700 77,850 83,780 87,470 89,530 90,130 87,910 82,280 81,590 83,880 86,520 88,490 Mohave 5,500 5,680 5,950 6,020 6,250 7,070 6,500 6,380 6,170 5,780 5,650 5,450 5,860 Navajo 3,430 3,940 3,420 3,140 3,200 3,360 3,300 3,570 3,190 3,500 3,500 3,650 3,590 Pima 21,230 23,030 22,900 24,140 25,200 25,040 23,810 22,160 21,760 21,360 21,560 22,860 22,380 Pinal 3,160 3,130 3,780 3,960 4,270 4,680 4,880 5,250 4,920 5,110 5,440 5,580 5,850 Santa Cruz 2,430 2,520 2,550 2,560 2,530 2,390 2,330 2,260 2,220 2,000 1,830 1,920 2,080 Yavapai 6,370 7,100 8,120 7,900 8,060 8,180 8,280 8,460 7,710 7,490 7,470 7,750 7,720 Yuma 4,800 4,950 5,590 5,700 5,840 6,200 6,040 6,110 6,130 6,070 6,160 6,330 5,820 Arizona 152,740 160,030 151,110 158,550 164,810 168,460 167,920 165,120 156,230 154,280 156,970 161,270 163,530 Note: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES 11-13p -6.2 -0.5 3.1 -1.8 20.4 9.6 2.3 7.5 -1.7 -2.1 4.9 8.1 -0.3 -8.1 1.4 98-13p -0.4 0.0 0.0 -1.2 5.2 -0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 4.2 -1.1 1.3 1.3 0.5 PAGE 39 Apache County Travel Impacts, 2004-2013p 2004 2006 2008 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 91.5 109.1 132.6 Other Travel* 9.4 12.5 14.4 Total Direct Spending 100.9 121.6 147.0 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 43.9 55.6 36.9 Private Home 27.5 31.4 33.7 Campground 5.8 6.5 43.7 Vacation Home 10.4 11.2 12.0 Day Travel 3.8 4.4 6.2 Destination Spending 91.5 109.1 132.6 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 19.0 22.9 25.4 Food Service 23.4 27.5 31.4 Food Stores 8.0 8.6 15.5 Local Tran. & Gas 10.5 15.0 27.8 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 8.0 8.9 9.9 Retail Sales 22.6 26.2 22.5 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 91.5 109.1 132.6 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 14.5 17.0 19.7 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 3.5 4.0 4.7 Retail** 4.5 5.4 6.7 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.5 0.7 0.8 Total Direct Earnings 23.1 27.2 31.9 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 920 1,020 1,010 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 300 250 330 Retail** 260 280 320 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 40 40 50 Total Direct Employment 1,520 1,590 1,700 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 4.7 5.5 6.1 State Tax Receipts 5.2 6.0 6.9 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 9.9 11.5 13.1 2010 2011 2012 2013p 108.1 13.4 121.5 109.9 16.2 126.1 111.4 17.1 128.5 100.2 16.3 116.4 49.8 34.6 7.0 12.1 4.6 108.1 46.8 38.0 7.5 12.7 4.9 109.9 46.8 39.0 7.7 13.0 5.0 111.4 37.4 37.5 7.6 12.9 4.7 100.2 22.2 28.6 9.3 16.5 8.3 23.2 0.0 108.1 21.1 28.7 9.8 19.8 8.2 22.4 0.0 109.9 21.0 29.4 10.0 20.4 8.3 22.3 0.0 111.4 17.8 27.4 9.6 18.3 7.6 19.4 0.0 100.2 21.3 3.9 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 30.4 21.6 3.6 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 30.4 22.5 3.7 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 31.3 20.0 3.5 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 28.0 1,100 290 210 0 0 20 1,630 1,110 260 210 0 0 20 1,610 1,090 240 200 0 0 20 1,560 1,010 240 180 0 0 30 1,460 5.5 6.1 11.6 5.5 6.4 11.9 5.5 6.5 12.0 4.6 5.6 10.2 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 40 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Cochise County Travel Impacts, 2004-2013p 2004 2006 2008 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 291.9 314.7 345.5 Other Travel* 19.4 25.3 29.2 Total Direct Spending 311.3 340.0 374.7 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 105.2 124.3 144.1 Private Home 51.0 57.2 62.9 Campground 7.8 8.6 9.6 Vacation Home 5.6 6.1 6.6 Day Travel 122.3 118.5 122.3 Destination Spending 291.9 314.7 345.5 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 34.7 41.6 52.1 Food Service 71.8 77.8 84.1 Food Stores 62.0 57.0 59.5 Local Tran. & Gas 30.2 40.6 50.8 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 20.5 22.0 22.8 Retail Sales 72.8 75.7 76.1 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 291.9 314.7 345.5 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 35.8 39.5 48.8 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 9.5 10.7 11.6 Retail** 19.5 20.1 21.1 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 2.0 2.3 2.6 Total Direct Earnings 66.8 72.6 84.2 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 2,310 2,390 2,540 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 670 700 810 Retail** 860 890 870 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 100 120 120 Total Direct Employment 3,930 4,110 4,340 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 15.0 16.1 18.4 State Tax Receipts 15.0 16.0 17.7 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 30.1 32.1 36.1 2010 2011 2012 2013p 342.4 26.4 368.8 328.7 31.4 360.2 316.6 33.0 349.6 310.6 31.8 342.4 144.3 65.5 9.3 6.6 116.6 342.4 131.7 69.1 10.0 6.9 111.0 328.7 111.8 68.7 10.2 7.1 118.8 316.6 102.9 67.9 10.2 7.0 122.7 310.6 51.9 88.0 55.8 47.2 22.9 76.5 0.0 342.4 47.2 83.4 52.7 53.5 21.7 70.2 0.0 328.7 40.3 80.9 57.2 53.0 20.1 65.1 0.0 316.6 35.9 81.5 60.0 50.2 19.6 63.5 0.0 310.6 48.8 10.9 18.7 0.0 0.0 1.7 80.2 48.9 9.7 17.4 0.0 0.0 1.7 77.7 48.3 9.8 16.7 0.0 0.0 1.8 76.6 49.1 10.0 16.4 0.0 0.0 2.0 77.5 2,470 760 750 0 0 70 4,050 2,420 700 700 0 0 60 3,890 2,370 650 660 0 0 70 3,740 2,370 640 640 0 0 70 3,720 18.3 17.6 36.0 17.5 17.8 35.3 16.3 17.0 33.3 15.2 16.1 31.4 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 41 Coconino County Travel Impacts, 2004-2013p 2004 2006 2008 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 730.4 813.2 902.8 Other Travel* 27.8 31.5 36.7 Total Direct Spending 758.2 844.6 939.4 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 477.6 537.9 602.3 Private Home 42.5 52.0 53.5 Campground 20.0 19.8 24.7 Vacation Home 27.0 29.3 31.6 Day Travel 163.2 174.1 190.6 Destination Spending 730.4 813.2 902.8 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 208.1 240.4 276.7 Food Service 171.7 185.3 205.6 Food Stores 41.0 42.0 48.4 Local Tran. & Gas 62.6 83.8 108.6 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 130.1 133.7 139.8 Retail Sales 110.8 113.4 116.0 Visitor Air Tran. 6.1 14.6 7.7 Destination Spending 730.4 813.2 902.8 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 131.1 141.9 174.4 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 55.8 59.9 65.8 Retail** 22.9 25.0 27.8 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 4.1 7.6 5.8 Other Travel* 7.4 5.4 8.7 Total Direct Earnings 221.3 239.8 282.4 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 6,560 6,280 6,910 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 2,940 3,140 3,170 Retail** 960 1,000 1,090 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 80 150 120 Other Travel* 200 170 230 Total Direct Employment 10,740 10,750 11,520 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 31.5 34.2 41.0 State Tax Receipts 34.5 37.2 42.2 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 66.0 71.4 83.2 2010 2011 2012 2013p 903.7 36.1 939.8 952.3 993.7 42.0 45.2 994.3 1,038.9 1,022.5 45.9 1,068.4 600.0 58.1 23.9 31.7 189.9 903.7 633.4 62.2 25.2 33.2 198.3 952.3 664.9 63.2 26.4 34.0 205.3 993.7 690.4 62.9 26.3 34.3 208.5 1,022.5 271.3 214.8 48.1 100.1 138.0 118.0 13.4 903.7 289.1 219.9 50.5 120.4 139.0 119.6 13.7 952.3 304.5 230.8 52.1 126.9 142.9 122.8 13.7 993.7 320.7 240.6 53.5 123.7 145.9 125.0 13.2 1,022.5 162.2 69.5 24.4 0.0 5.8 5.7 267.6 162.0 77.3 25.1 0.0 6.4 6.4 277.2 169.9 74.5 25.1 0.0 5.4 6.4 281.4 177.2 77.1 25.1 0.0 5.2 7.1 291.7 6,510 6,530 6,620 3,140 3,170 3,000 940 970 960 0 0 0 110 120 100 160 190 190 10,850 10,980 10,870 6,740 3,220 950 0 100 210 11,210 40.8 42.4 83.2 43.9 46.9 90.7 45.4 48.8 94.2 44.6 47.5 92.1 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 42 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Gila County Travel Impacts, 2004-2013p 2004 2006 2008 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 221.4 250.5 248.6 Other Travel* 7.1 9.4 11.0 Total Direct Spending 228.5 260.0 259.6 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 41.7 55.5 42.6 Private Home 30.9 34.8 37.6 Campground 10.4 11.5 12.8 Vacation Home 11.8 12.7 13.6 Day Travel 126.5 136.0 142.0 Destination Spending 221.4 250.5 248.6 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 16.3 21.0 18.0 Food Service 38.4 43.3 43.2 Food Stores 17.9 18.6 20.2 Local Tran. & Gas 19.8 27.3 32.6 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 96.3 106.0 102.2 Retail Sales 32.7 34.4 32.4 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 221.4 250.5 248.6 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 19.4 22.6 23.3 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 28.8 32.8 32.8 Retail** 7.8 8.7 9.0 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.4 0.5 0.6 Total Direct Earnings 56.4 64.6 65.7 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 1,230 1,280 1,190 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 1,440 1,480 1,390 Retail** 350 370 380 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 20 30 30 Total Direct Employment 3,040 3,160 3,000 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 6.9 7.8 8.1 State Tax Receipts 9.5 11.6 11.5 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 16.4 19.4 19.6 2010 2011 2012 2013p 246.3 10.0 256.3 253.5 12.0 265.5 266.7 12.5 279.2 268.8 12.0 280.8 40.7 39.0 12.4 13.4 140.9 246.3 39.6 41.5 13.4 14.0 145.2 253.5 47.4 42.7 13.7 14.3 148.6 266.7 50.3 42.1 13.6 14.4 148.5 268.8 16.9 45.4 20.1 30.3 100.5 33.1 0.0 246.3 16.5 46.1 21.1 36.2 100.3 33.3 0.0 253.5 18.8 49.0 21.7 38.2 104.7 34.3 0.0 266.7 19.7 50.3 21.9 36.7 105.9 34.4 0.0 268.8 22.3 25.2 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 55.9 22.3 23.9 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 54.6 24.6 24.6 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 57.8 27.0 23.8 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 59.2 1,120 1,200 330 0 0 20 2,660 1,100 1,220 330 0 0 20 2,670 1,160 1,160 320 0 0 20 2,660 1,240 1,030 330 0 0 20 2,610 7.9 11.4 19.3 8.3 11.9 20.2 8.7 12.5 21.2 8.3 12.3 20.6 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 43 Graham & Greenlee Counties Travel Impacts, 2004-2013p 2004 2006 2008 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 36.7 54.0 57.7 Other Travel* 5.5 7.5 9.3 Total Direct Spending 42.3 61.5 67.0 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 14.1 27.1 27.1 Private Home 16.1 18.9 21.7 Campground 1.6 1.8 2.0 Vacation Home 0.7 0.7 0.8 Day Travel 4.3 5.5 6.0 Destination Spending 36.7 54.0 57.7 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 4.8 9.1 9.9 Food Service 10.6 14.5 15.4 Food Stores 3.9 4.6 5.2 Local Tran. & Gas 5.2 8.2 10.3 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 3.3 4.4 4.4 Retail Sales 8.9 13.3 12.5 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 36.7 54.0 57.7 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 5.2 7.9 9.2 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 1.8 2.4 2.5 Retail** 2.0 2.9 3.0 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.3 0.4 0.5 Total Direct Earnings 9.3 13.6 15.2 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 440 630 640 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 280 410 430 Retail** 90 130 120 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 20 20 30 Total Direct Employment 830 1,190 1,220 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 1.7 2.5 2.7 State Tax Receipts 2.3 3.1 3.2 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 3.9 5.5 6.0 2010 2011 2012 2013p 52.5 8.4 60.9 59.5 10.2 69.7 64.5 10.8 75.3 76.2 10.5 86.8 21.3 22.5 1.9 0.8 5.9 52.5 25.0 25.0 2.0 0.9 6.6 59.5 29.6 25.1 2.1 0.9 6.8 64.5 40.5 25.4 2.1 0.9 7.3 76.2 7.6 15.2 5.1 9.4 4.1 11.2 0.0 52.5 8.8 16.6 5.6 11.8 4.4 12.4 0.0 59.5 10.6 17.7 5.7 12.4 4.6 13.5 0.0 64.5 15.2 20.5 6.1 12.9 5.2 16.3 0.0 76.2 7.6 2.4 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 12.7 8.2 2.5 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 13.7 9.1 2.7 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 14.9 11.5 3.1 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 18.0 500 380 100 0 0 20 1,000 520 380 110 0 0 20 1,020 570 390 110 0 0 20 1,080 710 460 120 0 0 20 1,300 2.4 3.0 5.4 2.7 3.5 6.2 3.0 3.7 6.7 3.5 4.2 7.6 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 44 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES La Paz County Travel Impacts, 2004-2013p 2004 2006 2008 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 119.6 123.0 129.2 Other Travel* 2.8 3.7 4.2 Total Direct Spending 122.4 126.7 133.4 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 12.5 8.4 6.6 Private Home 11.7 13.2 14.5 Campground 26.2 28.6 31.2 Vacation Home 14.8 15.8 16.7 Day Travel 54.5 57.0 60.1 Destination Spending 119.6 123.0 129.2 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 11.1 10.4 10.1 Food Service 20.9 21.4 22.5 Food Stores 11.1 11.2 12.4 Local Tran. & Gas 11.7 15.3 18.9 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 46.5 46.6 47.7 Retail Sales 18.3 18.0 17.6 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 119.6 123.0 129.2 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 9.0 8.9 9.7 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 12.8 13.4 14.0 Retail** 4.3 4.5 4.8 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.1 0.2 0.2 Total Direct Earnings 26.2 27.0 28.9 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 560 520 520 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 520 470 480 Retail** 200 200 210 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 10 10 10 Total Direct Employment 1,290 1,200 1,220 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 4.1 4.1 4.6 State Tax Receipts 5.1 5.5 5.8 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 9.2 9.6 10.4 2010 2011 2012 2013p 123.9 3.8 127.7 134.7 4.6 139.3 138.0 4.8 142.8 139.8 4.6 144.4 3.9 14.3 30.4 16.3 59.0 123.9 6.9 16.4 31.9 17.0 62.4 134.7 8.3 16.3 32.5 17.5 63.4 138.0 9.9 16.3 32.4 17.6 63.6 139.8 8.5 22.8 12.1 17.1 45.9 17.5 0.0 123.9 9.6 24.6 13.1 21.3 47.8 18.4 0.0 134.7 10.2 25.4 13.3 22.0 48.5 18.6 0.0 138.0 10.9 26.3 13.4 21.3 49.1 18.8 0.0 139.8 10.5 13.6 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 28.5 12.6 14.2 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 31.3 12.5 14.4 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 31.4 14.3 14.9 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 33.6 560 450 180 0 0 10 1,200 650 470 190 0 0 10 1,320 650 480 180 0 0 10 1,310 750 510 170 0 0 10 1,440 4.4 5.7 10.1 4.8 6.3 11.1 4.9 6.5 11.4 4.9 6.4 11.3 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 45 Maricopa County Travel Impacts, 2004-2013p 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 7,056 8,247 8,034 7,902 8,359 8,655 Other Travel* 1,904 2,412 2,550 2,355 2,586 2,795 Total Direct Spending 8,960 10,659 10,584 10,257 10,946 11,450 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 3,928 4,754 4,451 4,271 4,519 4,611 Private Home 1,803 2,071 2,139 2,212 2,317 2,339 Campground 213 167 150 108 127 245 Vacation Home 205 231 254 258 269 275 Day Travel 908 1,025 1,041 1,053 1,129 1,184 Destination Spending 7,056 8,247 8,034 7,902 8,359 8,655 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 1,347 1,705 1,630 1,359 1,464 1,516 Food Service 1,501 1,706 1,687 1,794 1,880 1,970 Food Stores 235 241 252 248 268 292 Local Tran. & Gas 776 960 1,007 1,001 1,133 1,196 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 1,035 1,123 1,059 1,064 1,097 1,124 Retail Sales 1,152 1,246 1,141 1,184 1,228 1,253 Visitor Air Tran. 1,011 1,266 1,257 1,250 1,290 1,305 Destination Spending 7,056 8,247 8,034 7,902 8,359 8,655 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 961 1,119 1,185 1,139 1,198 1,239 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 446 506 499 501 508 552 Retail** 191 214 207 190 202 205 Ground Tran. 88 101 95 102 109 111 Visitor Air Tran. 475 565 542 560 607 593 Other Travel* 653 776 770 733 783 829 Total Direct Earnings 2,814 3,281 3,298 3,226 3,407 3,528 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 38.9 41,570 41,570 39.5 40.8 41.4 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 15.7 16,480 16,570 15.5 15.7 16.4 Retail** 6.1 6,460 6,300 5.7 5.8 5.9 Ground Tran. 2.6 2,770 2,590 2.6 2.7 2.8 Visitor Air Tran. 7.4 7,820 7,450 6.7 7.0 7.2 Other Travel* 13.0 14,430 13,430 11.6 12.0 12.9 Total Direct Employment 83.8 89,530 87,910 81.6 83.9 86.5 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 394.0 451.9 454.4 442.5 477.1 486.8 State Tax Receipts 343.6 391.7 390.2 389.9 431.7 449.0 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 737.6 843.6 844.6 832.3 908.8 935.8 2013p 9,030 2,954 11,984 4,813 2,445 269 281 1,222 9,030 1,586 2,071 306 1,215 1,156 1,286 1,411 9,030 1,301 590 207 113 551 833 3,594 43.0 17.4 6.1 2.8 6.9 12.3 88.5 492.3 451.4 943.7 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations, resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 46 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Mohave County Travel Impacts, 2004-2013p 2004 2006 2008 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 387.0 468.4 450.5 Other Travel* 34.5 47.4 64.3 Total Direct Spending 421.5 515.8 514.7 All Overnight Hotel, Motel 112.2 145.7 112.4 Private Home 118.2 142.0 153.7 Campground 17.2 19.1 21.2 Vacation Home 31.1 35.7 38.3 Day 108.2 126.0 124.8 Destination Spending 387.0 468.4 450.5 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 55.4 71.9 57.8 Food Service 102.1 121.7 118.5 Food Stores 36.0 40.2 42.5 Local Tran. & Gas 46.5 68.3 79.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 78.8 89.3 82.3 Retail Sales 68.3 77.0 69.8 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 387.0 468.4 450.5 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 52.1 63.3 62.6 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 35.7 42.3 41.0 Retail** 16.5 19.9 20.0 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 5.6 7.3 12.5 Total Direct Earnings 110.0 132.8 136.0 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 3,050 3,550 3,200 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 2,120 2,540 2,030 Retail** 610 710 680 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 240 270 470 Total Direct Employment 6,020 7,070 6,380 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 15.8 18.7 18.6 State Tax Receipts 19.7 23.1 22.4 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 35.5 41.8 41.1 2010 2011 2012 2013p 460.5 53.0 513.5 466.3 61.0 527.3 473.4 65.4 538.8 495.3 67.6 562.9 119.0 155.8 20.5 37.7 127.6 460.5 119.5 157.3 22.1 39.4 128.0 466.3 120.0 160.7 22.6 40.4 129.8 473.4 123.7 172.7 22.5 40.5 135.9 495.3 55.3 128.8 43.0 75.5 84.3 73.6 0.0 460.5 56.2 126.3 43.4 87.0 81.7 71.6 0.0 466.3 56.5 129.3 44.0 89.7 82.0 71.8 0.0 473.4 58.2 138.8 46.8 90.5 85.8 75.1 0.0 495.3 62.8 31.8 18.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 120.8 64.9 29.1 17.7 0.0 0.0 8.3 119.9 61.3 32.0 17.3 0.0 0.0 9.2 119.8 65.6 37.9 17.9 0.0 0.0 10.9 132.3 3,220 1,630 630 0 0 310 5,780 3,230 1,500 610 0 0 310 5,650 2,950 1,580 600 0 0 320 5,450 3,080 1,800 610 0 0 360 5,860 18.7 23.0 41.7 19.2 24.1 43.3 19.3 24.4 43.7 19.3 24.7 44.0 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 47 Navajo County Travel Impacts, 2004-2013p 2004 2006 2008 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 217.1 260.0 285.6 Other Travel* 15.2 20.1 22.5 Total Direct Spending 232.3 280.0 308.1 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 102.7 128.5 141.3 Private Home 40.9 48.1 53.9 Campground 14.2 16.4 17.2 Vacation Home 38.0 41.7 45.6 Day Travel 21.4 25.2 27.7 Destination Spending 217.1 260.0 285.6 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 44.1 52.9 60.4 Food Service 53.2 63.4 69.3 Food Stores 16.3 18.0 20.2 Local Tran. & Gas 21.4 31.4 39.7 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 27.5 30.9 32.0 Retail Sales 54.6 63.4 64.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 217.1 260.0 285.6 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 34.1 40.1 48.6 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 10.5 12.3 13.3 Retail** 9.8 11.8 12.7 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 1.2 1.5 1.3 Total Direct Earnings 55.5 65.7 75.8 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 2,050 2,120 2,320 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 590 670 680 Retail** 430 490 510 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 70 80 70 Total Direct Employment 3,140 3,360 3,570 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 10.0 11.8 13.6 State Tax Receipts 11.4 13.3 14.6 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 21.4 25.1 28.2 2010 2011 2012 2013p 254.5 20.0 274.5 264.5 24.0 288.5 279.7 25.1 304.8 282.0 24.3 306.3 114.3 52.3 16.7 45.4 25.8 254.5 115.2 57.0 17.6 47.4 27.3 264.5 128.1 58.4 16.4 48.6 28.2 279.7 130.5 57.3 17.1 49.0 28.2 282.0 50.1 65.5 19.1 33.9 29.6 56.3 0.0 254.5 50.6 66.8 20.1 40.8 29.8 56.3 0.0 264.5 55.2 71.0 20.5 42.8 30.3 59.8 0.0 279.7 57.2 72.6 20.7 41.0 30.5 59.9 0.0 282.0 47.7 18.0 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 76.5 47.5 18.4 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 76.9 52.0 21.9 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 85.2 53.7 19.2 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 84.0 2,240 810 410 0 0 40 3,500 2,240 810 410 0 0 30 3,500 2,290 900 420 0 0 30 3,650 2,340 800 410 0 0 30 3,590 11.7 13.4 25.1 12.3 14.4 26.7 13.0 15.3 28.3 12.4 14.6 27.1 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 48 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Pima County Travel Impacts, 2004-2013p 2004 2006 2008 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 1,987 2,241 2,043 Other Travel* 375 456 506 Total Direct Spending 2,362 2,697 2,550 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 924 1,074 903 Private Home 375 423 451 Campground 25 56 36 Vacation Home 39 43 47 Day Travel 624 645 605 Destination Spending 1,987 2,241 2,043 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 339 420 349 Food Service 471 526 475 Food Stores 128 134 132 Local Tran. & Gas 236 294 279 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 175 188 173 Retail Sales 469 468 411 Visitor Air Tran. 170 210 223 Destination Spending 1,987 2,241 2,043 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 282 319 304 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 71 80 76 Retail** 81 86 79 Ground Tran. 27 30 25 Visitor Air Tran. 5 10 12 Other Travel* 50 54 59 Total Direct Earnings 517 579 555 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 13,790 14,590 12,700 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 4,550 4,550 3,860 Retail** 3,050 3,110 2,870 Ground Tran. 820 830 680 Visitor Air Tran. 130 220 250 Other Travel* 1,800 1,750 1,800 Total Direct Employment 24,140 25,040 22,160 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 91.3 105.7 101.5 State Tax Receipts 95.0 106.3 97.5 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 186.3 211.9 199.0 2010 2011 2012 2013p 2,022 467 2,489 2,051 519 2,570 2,131 600 2,730 2,135 532 2,667 895 452 29 47 598 2,022 908 467 31 49 595 2,051 946 468 33 51 633 2,131 950 459 32 51 643 2,135 316 508 129 278 174 413 204 2,022 320 514 131 306 175 401 203 2,051 330 542 138 321 178 423 199 2,131 332 552 140 315 177 428 190 2,135 297 77 72 27 11 51 535 309 75 72 28 10 53 547 334 76 73 29 9 81 602 336 76 73 29 7 57 577 12,410 12,710 13,320 4,090 4,070 4,080 2,560 2,540 2,520 690 700 730 210 200 180 1,400 1,350 2,030 21,360 21,560 22,860 13,280 4,030 2,500 720 130 1,710 22,380 96.8 99.8 196.6 100.4 106.5 206.9 103.7 111.8 215.5 100.2 107.8 207.9 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations, resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 49 Pinal County Travel Impacts, 2004-2013p 2004 2006 2008 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 290.0 368.1 456.2 Other Travel* 30.2 48.8 69.3 Total Direct Spending 320.2 416.9 525.6 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 25.4 33.8 37.1 Private Home 120.9 156.2 199.9 Campground 39.1 43.3 48.2 Vacation Home 39.5 52.4 67.4 Day Travel 65.1 82.4 103.6 Destination Spending 290.0 368.1 456.2 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 29.1 36.7 42.3 Food Service 87.9 111.7 140.1 Food Stores 28.4 33.3 42.3 Local Tran. & Gas 33.9 51.8 73.7 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 46.1 55.9 66.2 Retail Sales 64.6 78.7 91.6 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 290.0 368.1 456.2 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 37.0 47.2 62.9 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 21.6 27.4 34.1 Retail** 13.3 16.9 21.0 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 1.6 2.6 3.8 Total Direct Earnings 73.4 94.2 121.8 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 2,170 2,500 2,990 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 1,170 1,390 1,270 Retail** 540 670 820 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 80 120 180 Total Direct Employment 3,960 4,680 5,250 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 12.3 15.2 20.1 State Tax Receipts 16.0 20.0 24.7 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 28.3 35.2 44.8 2010 2011 2012 2013p 514.6 72.3 586.8 551.0 86.2 637.1 540.1 91.3 631.4 535.0 88.7 623.6 34.7 241.3 46.6 75.3 116.7 514.6 40.0 256.1 50.2 78.7 126.1 551.0 37.8 246.2 51.4 80.6 124.0 540.1 32.5 246.9 51.2 81.4 123.0 535.0 40.4 168.1 47.4 76.4 74.6 107.6 0.0 514.6 43.4 175.8 50.5 93.4 76.5 111.4 0.0 551.0 43.2 173.0 49.5 93.1 74.2 107.1 0.0 540.1 41.6 175.0 49.8 88.7 73.8 106.0 0.0 535.0 73.4 29.3 21.3 0.0 0.0 2.6 126.7 76.4 28.7 22.4 0.0 0.0 2.6 130.0 80.2 31.4 21.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 135.3 74.4 35.0 20.5 0.0 0.0 2.8 132.7 3,060 1,140 780 0 0 130 5,110 3,250 1,230 830 0 0 130 5,440 3,350 1,330 770 0 0 130 5,580 3,480 1,470 760 0 0 140 5,850 22.7 28.5 51.2 24.5 31.1 55.6 23.7 30.7 54.4 22.5 29.7 52.2 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 50 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Santa Cruz County Travel Impacts, 2004-2013p 2004 2006 2008 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 293.7 273.5 272.9 Other Travel* 5.7 8.0 9.5 Total Direct Spending 299.4 281.5 282.4 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 31.0 36.3 39.0 Private Home 25.6 29.0 33.1 Campground 1.0 1.1 1.3 Vacation Home 1.0 1.2 1.3 Day Travel 235.1 206.0 198.2 Destination Spending 293.7 273.5 272.9 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 13.0 15.6 16.9 Food Service 39.3 39.6 41.1 Food Stores 105.1 91.8 92.9 Local Tran. & Gas 15.1 19.1 23.2 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 8.5 9.1 9.3 Retail Sales 112.6 98.5 89.5 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 293.7 273.5 272.9 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 17.8 18.5 21.1 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 4.2 4.7 5.1 Retail** 31.3 28.0 27.3 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.3 0.5 0.6 Total Direct Earnings 53.6 51.7 54.0 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 1,110 1,070 1,000 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 260 330 340 Retail** 1,160 970 900 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 20 30 30 Total Direct Employment 2,560 2,390 2,260 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 12.0 11.6 12.3 State Tax Receipts 12.2 11.6 11.7 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 24.3 23.1 23.9 2010 2011 2012 2013p 253.6 8.8 262.4 227.9 10.6 238.5 259.8 11.1 270.9 276.9 10.6 287.5 36.2 34.9 1.2 1.3 180.0 253.6 28.0 36.2 1.3 1.3 161.1 227.9 31.0 38.0 1.4 1.4 188.2 259.8 35.0 37.5 1.4 1.3 201.7 276.9 15.5 41.2 83.7 20.7 9.1 83.3 0.0 253.6 11.9 36.9 76.1 22.2 8.0 72.8 0.0 227.9 12.8 41.4 88.5 24.9 8.5 83.6 0.0 259.8 14.0 44.7 95.2 24.9 9.0 89.0 0.0 276.9 20.8 4.2 23.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 48.8 18.4 4.0 20.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 43.6 19.1 4.3 23.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 46.8 20.0 5.2 24.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 49.5 970 290 720 0 0 20 2,000 870 300 650 0 0 20 1,830 900 290 710 0 0 20 1,920 940 390 720 0 0 20 2,080 11.0 11.0 22.0 10.0 10.4 20.5 11.3 11.8 23.0 11.4 11.9 23.4 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 51 Yavapai County Travel Impacts, 2004-2013p 2004 2006 2008 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 472.9 562.5 594.6 Other Travel* 37.5 50.1 56.1 Total Direct Spending 510.4 612.7 650.6 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 176.4 233.0 234.4 Private Home 56.9 69.8 77.0 Campground 10.8 5.4 13.0 Vacation Home 19.0 21.9 24.2 Day Travel 209.8 232.4 246.0 Destination Spending 472.9 562.5 594.6 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 85.8 115.0 121.3 Food Service 91.5 108.8 113.7 Food Stores 34.2 36.9 41.5 Local Tran. & Gas 41.0 58.9 73.6 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 147.7 162.6 166.3 Retail Sales 72.4 79.9 77.8 Visitor Air Tran. 0.2 0.5 0.4 Destination Spending 472.9 562.5 594.6 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 59.9 73.5 83.8 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 56.8 65.5 68.9 Retail** 15.3 17.8 19.1 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.1 0.2 0.3 Other Travel* 6.4 7.8 8.0 Total Direct Earnings 138.6 164.9 180.1 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 3,050 3,280 3,530 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 3,880 3,840 3,850 Retail** 630 740 780 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 10 Other Travel* 340 320 300 Total Direct Employment 7,900 8,180 8,460 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 17.5 21.0 23.1 State Tax Receipts 22.3 26.9 28.6 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 39.8 47.9 51.6 2010 2011 2012 2013p 565.9 51.4 617.3 597.1 58.2 655.3 632.4 62.3 694.7 647.4 63.5 710.9 209.7 78.3 12.6 23.9 241.4 565.9 221.3 85.3 13.2 25.0 252.3 597.1 245.6 87.6 13.8 25.6 259.8 632.4 258.9 87.2 13.8 26.1 261.5 647.4 104.4 115.7 40.6 66.5 160.4 77.5 0.8 565.9 109.7 120.0 43.1 81.0 163.0 79.4 1.0 597.1 122.8 127.2 44.5 85.7 168.4 81.9 1.9 632.4 131.1 132.5 45.4 83.3 171.1 83.0 1.0 647.4 73.7 68.0 16.5 0.0 0.3 6.3 164.8 77.9 63.2 17.1 0.0 0.3 5.6 164.2 86.1 64.6 17.2 0.0 0.4 6.1 174.2 94.0 61.4 17.1 0.0 0.3 7.2 180.0 3,050 3,550 650 0 10 240 7,490 3,190 3,420 670 0 10 190 7,470 3,440 3,440 670 0 10 190 7,750 3,590 3,260 660 0 10 210 7,720 21.9 27.6 49.6 23.5 29.9 53.5 24.9 31.6 56.5 24.5 31.3 55.8 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 52 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Yuma County Travel Impacts, 2004-2013p 2004 2006 2008 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 487.4 541.8 569.9 Other Travel* 30.7 43.6 53.7 Total Direct Spending 518.0 585.4 623.6 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 101.0 134.5 140.2 Private Home 58.8 68.4 78.6 Campground 51.6 64.5 72.5 Vacation Home 35.1 39.5 43.7 Day Travel 240.8 234.9 234.9 Destination Spending 487.4 541.8 569.9 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 46.9 63.2 66.8 Food Service 85.2 97.4 103.8 Food Stores 71.5 68.8 72.9 Local Tran. & Gas 38.1 54.7 68.4 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 97.3 115.8 121.1 Retail Sales 139.2 132.4 124.4 Visitor Air Tran. 9.2 9.6 12.4 Destination Spending 487.4 541.8 569.9 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 42.1 50.4 58.1 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 38.3 47.2 50.7 Retail** 30.8 31.0 31.5 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 2.9 0.2 0.3 Other Travel* 3.5 2.6 3.3 Total Direct Earnings 117.6 131.5 143.8 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 2,380 2,650 2,800 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 2,040 2,280 2,060 Retail** 1,120 1,150 1,110 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 60 10 10 Other Travel* 100 110 130 Total Direct Employment 5,700 6,200 6,110 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 20.3 21.8 23.4 State Tax Receipts 22.9 25.8 27.2 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 43.2 47.6 50.6 2010 2011 2012 2013p 552.8 51.1 603.8 587.7 59.1 646.8 593.3 62.0 655.3 569.9 59.3 629.2 130.3 79.8 74.8 44.5 223.5 552.8 151.2 90.3 79.2 46.5 220.6 587.7 149.2 87.5 72.9 47.6 236.0 593.3 132.3 85.9 65.5 47.7 238.6 569.9 60.1 107.3 69.1 63.1 120.9 120.1 12.3 552.8 67.3 114.7 69.1 79.0 129.2 116.1 12.3 587.7 65.1 116.2 73.4 79.2 124.1 123.5 11.8 593.3 58.5 113.3 74.7 72.1 114.4 124.5 12.5 569.9 62.4 50.0 27.5 0.0 0.7 2.7 143.2 62.9 50.3 27.1 0.0 0.8 2.9 144.0 63.6 51.9 27.7 0.0 0.2 2.4 145.9 65.6 40.3 27.2 0.0 0.3 2.6 136.0 2,860 2,140 960 0 10 90 6,070 2,910 2,190 930 0 20 100 6,160 2,840 2,480 920 0 10 90 6,330 2,950 1,870 890 0 10 90 5,820 22.2 26.9 49.1 23.7 29.3 53.1 24.0 29.7 53.7 22.4 27.8 50.2 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 53 This page intentionally blank. APPENDICES APPENDIX A 2013 TRAVEL IMPACT ESTIMATES APPENDIX B KEY TERMS AND DEFINITIONS APPENDIX C REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACT MODEL APPENDIX D TRAVEL INDUSTRY ACCOUNTS APPENDIX E ARIZONA EARNINGS AND EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY SECTOR APPENDIX F INDUSTRY GROUPS DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 55 APPENDIX A 2013 TRAVEL IMPACT ESTIMATES This appendix provides a brief overview of the methodology, terminology and limitations of the travel impact and visitor volume estimates. REVISIONS TO 2013 REPORT There were no major methodological revisions in this year’s report. There were some small revisions to the estimates for the years 2010 through 2012. In addition:  There is a new section on regional travel impacts that are comparable to the county and statewide estimates.  State and local taxes are now reported separately at the statewide level. They are also comparable to the state and local taxes for the counties and regions. In the past, estimates of local property taxes and the sales tax payments of travel industry employees were reported only at the state level. These tax revenues are now also allocated to counties and regions. DIRECT IMPACTS The estimates of the direct impacts associated with traveler spending in Arizona were produced using the Regional Travel Impact Model (RTIM) developed by Dean Runyan Associates. The input data used to detail the economic impacts of the Arizona travel industry were gathered from various local, state and federal sources. Travel impacts consist of estimates of travel spending and the employment, earnings, and state and local taxes generated by this spending. These estimates are also broken out by type of traveler accommodation and by the type of business in which the expenditures occur. GROUND TRANSPORTATION ESTIMATES County and regional level estimates of destination or visitor spending include only a portion of the ground transportation expenditures for travel that occur in the county. The remaining portion is included in “other travel” as it represents transportation costs for travel to another destination within Arizona. State level estimates of visitor spending include all of these expenditures for ground transportation. SECONDARY (INDIRECT AND INDUCED) IMPACTS Direct impacts are reported for all counties within Arizona. Secondary employment and earnings impacts over and above direct impacts are reported at the state level only for the year 2013. These indirect and induced impacts are generated from the direct impacts produced by the RTIM, discussed above, and an input-output model PAGE 56 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES of the Arizona economy prepared by the Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. Indirect impacts represent the purchases of goods and services from other firms by businesses that directly receive expenditures from travelers. Hotels, for example, purchase maintenance services from independent contractors. Induced impacts represent the purchase of goods and services by employees whose earnings are in part derived from travel expenditures. The sum of the direct, indirect and induced impacts equals the total impact of all spending by visitors in the state. The “multiplier” refers to the ratio of the total impacts to the direct impacts for employment or earnings. A description of the methodology used to estimate secondary impacts can be found in the Appendix. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES Preliminary estimates for 2013 were prepared at the state, regional and county level. These estimates take advantage of the most current available data. However, because full-year data was not available in all cases, these estimates are subject to subsequent revision as additional information relating to travel and its economic impact in 2013 becomes available. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT An estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Arizona travel industry based on the RTIM direct travel impacts is also provided in this report. The GDP of an industry is equal to gross output (sales or receipts) minus intermediate inputs (the goods and services purchased from other industries). GDP is always less than output or sales because GDP measures only the “value added” of an industry and does not include the cost of the inputs that are also necessary to produce a good or service. GDP is a useful concept because it permits comparisons of the economic contributions of different industries. The relationship between spending and gross domestic product is illustrated in the figure below. Examples of inputs are the food or accounting services that restaurants purchase from suppliers. “Goods resold” are the commodities that retail establishments purchase from manufacturers or wholesale trade businesses and resell with a markup. These inputs or goods are not counted as the GDP of the restaurant or retail industry because their value was created in other industries (agriculture, accounting, manufacturing). DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 57 Relationship Between Spending and Gross Domestic Product Inputs/Goods Resold Operating Surplus Indirect Taxes Labor Income Spending GDP It is for this reason that “travel spending” – as measured from surveys of visitors – is not the best measure of the travel industry’s real economic contribution. This is because some visitor spending is actually counted as the GDP of other industries (e.g., agriculture, accounting, manufacturing). Furthermore, these other industries may or may not be located within the geographic area of interest. If the farm were located within the region of interest, then the GDP of the local farm would be included as an indirect or secondary effect. If not (e.g., a manufacturing firm in another state or country), then that portion of GDP is not counted. The preceding graph also shows the three main components of GDP. For most industries, labor income (essentially equivalent to earnings in this report) is the primary component of GDP. This is true of the travel industry. A second component is the tax payments that businesses make to government, such as sales, excise and property taxes. In the case of excise taxes, businesses are essentially a collection agency for the government. The final component, operating surplus, represents the income and payments (e.g., dividends, interest) to other stakeholders of the firm. The concept of GDP also illustrates that with small geographic units of analysis (e.g., counties), earnings, employment, and tax revenues are the best measures of the economic value of the travel industry to the local economy. Small area measures of GDP are less reliable and much of the operating surplus may leak out of the local economy anyway. Indirect effects are also generally less in smaller economies. PAGE 58 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES COMPARISON WITH OTHER EXPORT-ORIENTED INDUSTRIES Export-oriented industries are those industries that primarily market their products and services to other regions, states or nations. Agriculture, extractive industries, and manufacturing are the best examples of goods producing export-oriented industries. Many professional services (e.g., engineering, architecture, law) are also traded in export markets. The travel industry is also an export-oriented industry because goods and services are sold to visitors, rather than residents. The travel industry injects money into the local economy, as do the exports of other industries. Exports are not necessarily more important than locally traded goods and services. However, diverse export-oriented industries in any economy are a source of strength – in part because they generate income that contributes to the development of other local services and amenities. Such industries characterize the “comparative advantage” of the local economy within larger regional, national and global markets. For the purposes of this report, we have defined five major export-oriented industries in Arizona.  Aerospace. This industry comprises establishments engaged in aerospace product and parts manufacturing.  Microelectronics. This industry includes establishments that manufacture computers, communications equipment and similar products and components that utilize integrated circuits. This is the largest manufacturing subsector (NAICS 334).  Food. The food group encompasses parts of two major industry categories: agriculture, and food manufacturing or processing.  Mining. This industry is comprised primarily of copper mining companies.  Travel. A portion of the transportation, retail, leisure, and hospitality industries as estimated in this report. Comparisons with these industries are more meaningful for the travel industry than comparisons with non-export oriented industries (e.g., health care, retail trade, government) where industry growth is largely a function of population and demographic factors. See Appendix C for a list of Arizona industries. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 59 INTERPRETATION OF IMPACT ESTIMATES Users of this report should be aware of several issues regarding the interpretation of the impact estimates contained herein:  The estimates contained in this report are based on the most current data available and supersede all previous estimates of travel impacts.  The estimates in this report are expressed in current dollars unless otherwise noted.  The employment estimates in this report are estimates of the total number of full and part-time jobs directly generated by travel spending, rather than the number of individuals employed. Both payroll and self-employment are included in these estimates. Caution should therefore be used in comparing these estimates with other employment data series.  In general, estimates of small geographic areas (e.g., rural counties) are less reliable than estimates for regions or metropolitan counties. Trend analysis and comparisons of counties with relatively low levels of travel related economic activity should therefore be interpreted cautiously.  The estimates of travel impacts published in this report will necessarily differ somewhat from estimates generated from different models, methodologies and data sources. Nonetheless, it should be emphasized that all credible estimates of direct travel impacts at the state level, including those of Dean Runyan Associates, are of similar magnitude. PAGE 60 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES APPENDIX B KEY TERMS AND DEFINITIONS Commodity: A classification of a product or service, such as lodging or food service. An establishment or industry may produce more than one commodity. Direct Impacts: Employment, earnings and tax receipts directly generated by travel spending, as distinguished from secondary and total impacts. Earnings: Earnings include wage and salary disbursements, other earned income or benefits, and proprietor income. Only the earnings attributable to travel expenditures are included. Employment: Industry employment (jobs) associated with travel-generated earnings. Includes both full-time and part-time positions, and salaried or self-employed individuals. Employment is reported as an average for a time period, typically annual. (Unless otherwise noted, the employment estimates refer to establishment or industry employment at place of work, not the employment status or residence of the individual.) Federal Taxes: Federal taxes include the motor fuel excise tax, airline ticket taxes, and personal income and payroll taxes. Industry: A classification of business or government establishments based on their primary technological process. (See NAICS Appendix table.) Local Taxes: Lodging, sales and auto rental taxes imposed by cities, counties and other regional tax jurisdictions in Arizona. These taxes are levied on sales to visitors and the spending of employees attributable to travel industry earnings. Passenger Facility Charges attributable to visitors (a fee imposed on airline tickets) are included in counties with airports. Property tax payments attributable to travel industry businesses and employees are also included. Other spending: Other spending includes spending by residents on ground and air transportation for travel to other destinations, spending on travel arrangement services, and convention/ trade shows. Private Home: Unpaid overnight accommodations of friends and relatives. Receipts: Travel expenditures less the sales and excise taxes paid by the consumer. State Taxes: Lodging, sales, motor fuel, and business and personal income taxes imposed by the state of Arizona. These taxes are levied on sales to visitors and the spending of employees attributable to travel industry earnings. Total Impacts: The sum of Direct and Secondary impacts. Travel spending: The sum of visitor and other spending related to travel. Visitor spending: All spending on goods & services by visitors at the destination. Also referred to as destination spending. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 61 APPENDIX C REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACT MODEL PRIMARY DATA SOURCES Room Demand, Visitor Surveys, Population, Inventory/Use of Campsites & Second Homes, Visitor air arrivals Visitor Volume (Travel Party Days by Type of Accommodation) ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF TRAVEL Accommodation Sales, Visitor Surveys, Airfares Note: Receipts equals Spending less POS Taxes Ratio of Earnings to Receipts for relevant Industry Average Annual Earnings per job for relevant industry PAGE 62 Visitor Spending Point of Sale Taxes (Type of Accommodation and Type of Commodity) (Sales and Excise Taxes associated with Visitor Spending) Business Receipts (not reported) Business Taxes (Taxes on business income or receipts) Earnings (By Industry) Employment (By Industry) Personal Taxes (Local, state and federal income and payroll taxes) Note: Most estimates of taxes are based on implicit tax rates applied to visitor spending, business receipts, and employee earnings. Lodging tax receipts reflect actual tax collections. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES APPENDIX D TRAVEL INDUSTRY ACCOUNTS: A COMPARISON OF THE REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACT MODEL AND TRAVEL & TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNTS An economic account is a method for displaying inter-related information about a set of economic activities. A travel industry account is a method to report different types of related information about the purchase of goods and services by visitors. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which now provides annual and quarterly estimates of travel and tourism at the national level, describes a Travel and Tourism Satellite Account (TTSA) as “present(ing) a rearrangement of information from the National Income and Product Accounts, from the industry accounts, and from other sources so that travel and tourism activities can be analyzed more completely than is possible in the structure of the traditional national economic accounts.”1 Similarly, the RTIM has been developed by Dean Runyan Associates to estimate travel spending, earnings, employment, and tax receipts at the state, county, and regional levels. These initial findings can, in turn, be used as input data for deriving estimates of other economic measures, such as value-added and indirect effects. This appendix provides an overview of the Regional Travel Impact Model (RTIM) and travel and tourism satellite accounts (TTSAs). Although there is no single or absolute form of a TTSA, the one developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will be the basis of the analysis here. The definitions, framework, and estimating methods used for the U.S. BEA TTSA follow, as closely as is practicable, the guidelines for similar travel satellite accounts that were developed by the World Tourism Organization (WTO) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The primary focus is on the direct impacts of visitor spending. Visitors are defined as persons that stay overnight away from home, or travel more than fifty miles oneway on a non-routine trip. Only the expenditures related to specific trips are counted as visitor spending. Other travel related expenditures such as the consumption of durable goods (e.g., recreational vehicles or sporting equipment) or the purchase of vacation homes are not considered. While such a definition of the travel industry (i.e., the trip related expenditures of visitors) is conservative, it is also in keeping with the notion of the travel industry as being an export-oriented industry for specific local communities. That is, visitors are important to regions because they inject money into the local economy. This focus on the export-oriented nature of the travel industry for local communities becomes blurred if the industry is defined so as to include non-trip related expenditures. 1 Peter D. Kuhbach, Mark A. Planting, and Erich H. Strassner, “U.S. Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts for 1998-2003,” Survey of Current Business 84 (September 2004): 43-59. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 63 PRIMARY CONCEPTS, CATEGORIES & DATA REQUIREMENTS There are three primary types of information that are measured and/or estimated in a travel industry account. The first is a measure of the travel industry in terms of both the characteristics of the business firms that sell travel goods and services and the characteristics of consumers that purchase travel industry goods and services. The second is a measure of the demand segments that consume travel industry goods and services. For example, the distinction between business and leisure travel is a measure of demand segments. The third is a measure of the components of economic output associated with the travel industry. The employee earnings generated by visitor spending is one such component. Travel-generated tax receipts are another. These three categories of information represent different aspects of the accounting ledger – they represent different ways of viewing or analyzing the travel industry. The bulk of this paper will discuss these three types of information in terms of their conceptual foundations, the data requirements, and some of the more salient issues that users of this information should be aware of. There will also be some discussion of indirect and induced effects in that these effects can be reasonably estimated from the direct travel industry accounts. These secondary (versus direct) effects describe the relationship of the travel industry to other sectors of the larger economy. The intent of this discussion will be to provide a general overview of the process of constructing travel industry accounts and the underlying similarity between the RTIM and a TTSA. More technical issues are generally placed in footnotes. TRAVEL INDUSTRY Defining the travel industry is probably the most critical and data intensive effort involved in developing a travel industry account. It is an exercise in matching supply (sellers of goods and services) with demand (the travelers that purchase those particular goods and services). It is complicated by the fact that no single industrial classification scheme provides a valid measure of the travel industry.2 There are only three significant industrial classifications (Accommodations [NAICS 721], Scheduled Passenger Air Transportation [NAICS 481111] and Travel Arrangement and Reservation Services [NAICS 5615]) that primarily sell travel industry goods and services.3 Firms in other industries (retail, recreation, transportation) provide goods and services to both travelers and other types of consumers. Because of this, most satellite accounts, as well as the RTIM, incorporate at least some information about the expenditures of visitors in order to define the supply of 2 The North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) is the current standard in the United States. 3 Even these industries are not purely travel. For example, the accommodations industry provides services to local residents (food service and meeting rooms). Passenger airlines also ship cargo on the same planes that carry passengers. Fortunately, it is usually possible to make adjustments for these non-travel components through the use of additional data. PAGE 64 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES visitor industry firms. For example, if there is an estimate of visitor-days and an estimate of how much the average visitor spends on food services per day, then an estimate of visitor spending on food services can be calculated. In most cases, this will be only a fraction of all food service sales in that residents are a larger market for most restaurants.4 The industry sectors that are usually matched to visitor spending in this way are: accommodations (NAICS 721), food service (722), arts, entertainment and recreation (71), and retail trade (44-45). A portion of transportation business is also part of the travel industry for obvious reasons. In the case of the transportation sector, the definition and measurement of the travel industry component is more complicated because most transportation spending by visitors involves travel to and from the destination, rather than travel at or within the destination market. This is not an issue if the geographic scope of the travel industry market includes the origin and destination of travel. National travel industry accounts thus include all domestic passenger air transportation in the travel industry. The issue is more complicated at the state or regional level, however. Suppose, for example, that the focus of a travel industry account is the state of Arizona. How should the purchase of a round trip airline ticket by a Chicago resident traveling to Phoenix be treated in that only some of the economic impact of this spending will occur in Arizona? A reasonable approach would be to allocate only a portion of this spending (and related payroll, taxes, etc.) to Arizona and ignore the remainder for the purpose of creating a travel industry account for Arizona. However, if this procedure were followed for every state, the sum of the state accounts would be less than the national travel account. The state accounts would be additive if outbound air travel from each state were included. However, this is methodologically inconsistent with the construction of a national account, which does not include outbound travel as a component of domestic tourism demand. The approach used in the RTIM is to make a distinction between the visitor industry, that includes only visitor demand, and the travel industry, which includes visitor demand and that portion of outbound travel that can be attributed to the resident economy. For example, the passenger air transportation employment in Arizona can be divided between three groups of travelers: inbound, outbound, and pass-through. Only that employment attributable to inbound travel is part of the Arizona visitor industry. Employment attributable to outbound and pass-through travelers is included with the larger travel industry.5 4 The proportion can vary enormously among regions and localities, however. In many popular visitor destinations, the primary market for food service will be visitors. It should also be noted that even with reliable visitor survey data, there is still the issue of how to translate spending on food service commodities to the supply of food service by industry. As indicated in the footnote above, food service is also supplied by the accommodation industry. 5 The same issue arises with travel agencies and reservation services (NAICS 5615). Most of these services are probably related to outbound travel and are treated as such in the RTIM. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 65 The following two tables display the specific industries that are included in the travel industry for the BEA’s national TTSA and the RTIM. Although not identical, the industries are equivalent with only a few exceptions.6 Bureau of Economic Analysis Tourism Industries Distribution of Travel-Generated Compensation in United States, 2007 Accommodation & Food Services Traveler accommodations Food services and drinking places 38.1% 21.5% 16.6% Transportation Air transportation Rail transportation Water transportation Interurban bus transportation Interurban charter bus transportation Urban transit systems & other tran. Taxi service Automotive equipment rental & leasing Automotive repair services Parking lots and garages Toll highways 23.3% 15.4% 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 2.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% Recreation Scenic and sightseeing transportation Motion pictures and performing arts Spectator sports Participant sports Gambling All other recreation and entertainment 11.2% 0.4% 1.1% 2.3% 2.4% 3.0% 2.0% Retail & Nondurable Goods Production Petroleum refineries Industries producing nondurable PCE commodities, excluding petroleum refineries Wholesale trade & tran. services Gasoline service stations Retail trade services, excluding gasoline service stations 16.2% 0.6% 4.4% 4.2% 1.3% 5.8% Travel Arrangement 7.3% All other industries 2.2% Total Tourism Compensation 100.0% Source: Adapted from Eric S. Griffith and Steven L. Zemanek, “U.S. Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts for 2005-2008,” Survey of Current Business (June 2009): 37, table 6. 6 The major exception is that the BEA includes the production of consumer non-durables that are sold through retail outlets. This is not a major component and would be even less so at the level of the state. PAGE 66 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES RTIM Travel Impact Industries Matched to NAICS Travel Impact Industry NAICS Industry (code) Accommodation & Food Services Accommodation (721) Food Services and Drinking Places (722) Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Performing Arts, Spectator Sports (711) Museums (712) Amusement, Gambling (713) Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation (487) Retail Food & Beverage Stores (445) Gasoline Stations (447) Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (448) Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores (451) General Merchandise Stores (452) Miscellaneous Store Retailers (453) Ground Transportation Interurban and rural bus transportation (4852) Taxi and Limousine Service (4853) Charter Bus Industry (4855) Passenger Car Rental (532111) Parking Lots and Garages (812930) Air Transportation Scheduled Air Passenger Transportation (481111) Support Activities for Air Transportation (4881) Administrative/Support Services Travel Arrangement and Reservation Services (5615) Convention and Trade Show Organizers (56192) Source: Dean Runyan Associates DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 67 DEMAND SEGMENTS The distinction between inbound and outbound travel has already been discussed in the previous section and in terms of the concepts of the visitor industry and the travel industry. Three other types of demand segments that are related exclusively to the visitor industry will be discussed here. The first two demand categories are reported by the BEA in their national TTSA. They are: leisure versus business travel, and resident versus non-resident travel. The third demand category is typically reported in the RTIM: type of traveler accommodation. These three demand categories will be discussed in turn. The distinction between leisure versus business travel is useful for several reasons. Economists like to distinguish between personal consumption expenditures on the one hand and business expenditures on the other. Indeed, this distinction is central for the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). Those in the travel industry are more likely to be interested in this distinction because leisure travelers represent a more “marketable” segment because their travel choices are less determined by economic and business factors. Futhermore, business and leisure travelers tend to have different spending profiles. The availability of this information in either a state or regional TTSA or RTIM is essentially dependent on the availability of survey data (as it is at the national level). It should be noted, however, that such estimates are considerably less reliable for smaller geographic areas because of the limitations of survey data. Even at the state level, year-to-year changes in the composition of this demand segment should be interpreted in conjunction with other data. The distinction between resident versus non-resident travel is fundamental to a national TTSA because it mirrors the distinction between the domestic economy and international transactions. Non-resident travel in the United States is considered an export in the official international transaction accounts.7 The distinction is obviously also important because it is based on different political, legal, and currency regimes – factors that in themselves influence travel behavior. At the level of the state or region, the distinction between resident and nonresident travel is less important, although it is often reported.8 There are at least two reasons why this distinction is less useful at state and regional levels. First, there is considerably less of an economic rationale for distinguishing resident and non-resident travel at the level of the state, or any other political jurisdiction within the United States, than there is at the national level. States do not maintain interstate trade balance sheets that chart the flow of goods and services across state boundaries. From an economic point of view, the administration of the tax system is the primary, if only, reason for this distinction. In the case of travel and tourism, 7 Conversely, the spending of U.S. visitors in other countries is treated as an import in the international transaction accounts. 8 The issues discussed with regard to the reliability of survey data for leisure versus business travel also applies to this category PAGE 68 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES the evaluation of the tax impacts of resident versus nonresident travel might also be important.9 Second, travel is behaviorally defined by length of distance from home (usually at least 50 miles one-way), trip purpose (non-routine), and/or the use of an overnight accommodation away from home. Rarely is domestic travel defined by virtue of crossing a geographic boundary.10 The operators of tourist attractions in local communities are generally less interested in the origin of visitors than in the revenue that they generate for their businesses. In terms of the economic impacts at the local level, the distinction between in-state residents, out-of-state residents and international visitors may not be relevant other than for the purpose of marketing. However, other geographic characteristics of the visitor (e.g., distance traveled, the specific area of origin) are generally more useful measures of the visitor market than whether the visitor is a resident or nonresident. Finally, the distinction among different types of traveler accommodations is generally reported in the RTIM. Typically, these categories are:  Visitors who stay in hotels, motels, B&Bs., and similar lodging facilities  Visitors who stay at campsites  Visitors who stay in the private homes of friends or relatives  Visitors who stay in vacation or second homes  Visitors who do not stay in overnight accommodations on their trip away from home (day visitors). These distinctions can be useful because estimates of economic impacts are often used for different purposes. The total of all accommodation types, of course, is an estimate of the total magnitude of the visitor industry. Visitors who stay in commercial lodging such as hotels and motels are most likely to have the greatest economic impact on a person-day basis. These visitors are also more likely to be influenced by marketing efforts. In urban areas, a large proportion will represent business travel. In other words, the type of accommodation category can be used in conjunction with other types of data to analyze the market characteristics of visitors. 9 Nonresident visitors who pay taxes in their destination state represent an unambiguous gain for the state. This effect is less clear for resident travelers within the state. 10 In essence, state level travel impact estimates really represent an aggregation of smaller geographic units, such as counties or regions. Populous states with large landmasses (e.g., California or Texas) will have a higher proportion of resident travel than small states (e.g., Rhode Island or Delaware). DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 69 COMPONENTS OF INDUSTRY OUTPUT Because both the RTIM and the TTSA are empirically linked to NAICS industry accounts, it is possible to provide estimates of different components of economic output. The major economic components most often estimated are:11  Travel spending (Gross Output)  Value-added (Gross Product)  Earnings (labor income)  Indirect business taxes (sales, excise, property taxes & fees). The relationship of these components is shown below. As indicated, the valueadded of a particular industry (the bar on the right) is equal to gross output (travel spending) minus the intermediate inputs used by travel industry businesses to produce the good or service. Restaurants, for example, prepare and serve the food products that are purchased from suppliers. Airlines purchase or lease airplanes from other firms. These intermediate inputs are not counted as part of the valueadded of the travel industry. They are counted as value-added in other industries (e.g., agriculture, aerospace manufacturing). Components of Industry Output Inputs/Goods Resold Operating Surplus Indirect Taxes Labor Income Output (Spending) Value-Added The distinction between gross output and value-added is probably even more important at the state or regional level. This is because the intermediate inputs that are purchased from other industries are even more likely to be purchased from businesses located in different regions or states. For example, the economic impact 11 There are some small differences between the BEA TTSA and the RTIM in what these components include. The BEA allocates proprietor income to Operating Surplus, the RTIM allocates it to Labor Income. The RTIM does not have an estimate of property taxes in indirect taxes. Overall, property taxes on businesses are a relatively small proportion of indirect taxes. PAGE 70 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES of air passenger travel in the state of Hawaii should not include the purchase of airplanes manufactured in other parts of the world. Travel industry value-added is a more meaningful measure of the true economic impact of visitor spending in Hawaii because a portion of the economic impact of visitor spending in the state will actually occur elsewhere.12 Value-added can also be viewed in terms of the distribution or payout of industry receipts, exclusive of those paid to other firms for intermediate inputs. Some of the receipts are distributed to labor as wages, benefits, and proprietor income. Some receipts are paid to government as indirect taxes. These taxes are called “indirect” because most of them are actually paid by consumers in the form of sales or excise taxes.13 The remainder leaves gross operating surplus. Out of gross operating surplus various payments are made in the form of dividends, interest, and other payments, or retained by the firm. The sum of these three broad categories of payments is equal to travel industry value-added. To summarize: Value-added = Spending less intermediate goods & services, or Value-added = Labor Income plus indirect business taxes plus gross operating surplus. The RTIM is similar to the TTSA in that it also provides estimates of these components of economic output. Travel spending, earnings, and tax impacts are generally provided at the state or regional level. Value-added is generally reported at the state-level only (sometimes referred to as Travel Industry Gross State Product). At the level of the state, travel industry value-added or GSP is an important measure – more economically meaningful than travel spending.14 For smaller geographic areas, however, the rationale for reporting value-added is less clear. First, there are real data limitations and data costs in deriving these estimates. Second, the most important components of value added for the travel industry are earnings and tax receipts. Because the travel industry is relatively labor intensive and because a large proportion of travel industry goods and services are subject to excise and sales taxes, these two components of value-added (labor income and indirect taxes) are relatively high for the travel industry. The local effects of gross operating surplus are generally less important and certainly much more difficult to assess than are earnings and tax impacts. The relevance of earnings and tax receipts is also in keeping the export-oriented emphasis of the travel industry: earnings and tax receipts are more likely to stay in the local economy than is operating surplus. 12 It should also be noted the value of the intermediate inputs used by travel industry firms will not necessarily disappear if the travel industry stops buying them. Aerospace firms will shift their production to other users (e.g., military). Agriculture will seek new markets for their products. 13 Other taxes included here are property taxes, business franchise taxes, and other fees. Income taxes are not included, because they are paid out of operating surplus. 14 It is also possible to compare different industries with respect to their value-added. It is more difficult and less useful to compare industries on the basis of sales. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 71 INDIRECT, INDUCED AND SECONDARY EFFECTS To this point, the discussion of travel industry accounts has referred only to the direct output components. That is, the ripple effects of the re-spending of travel industry receipts throughout the larger economy have not been analyzed. The structure of both the TTSA and the RTIM permit such analysis.  Indirect effects refer to the intermediate inputs used to produce the final product or service, providing that those inputs are themselves produced within the designated geographic area.  Induced effects refer to the purchase of goods and services by employees that are attributable to direct and indirect impacts. These induced impacts are derived from economic data that describe the purchasing patterns of households. For example, employees of all the designated export-oriented industries will spend their income on food, household durables, health care, and so on.  The sum of indirect and induced impacts is sometimes referred to as the secondary effect. These secondary impacts may be as great or greater than the direct impact alone.  The ratio of the total effects (direct plus either indirect, induced, or secondary) to the direct effects is the multiplier. The BEA reports the indirect components of economic output. This is equivalent to domestic travel spending less the goods and services imported from abroad to meet domestic demand. For travel, these imports would include souvenirs manufactured in China and petroleum extracted in Saudi Arabia. The indirect output multiplier for 2002 was 1.76. The ratio of domestic travel spending to travel industry value-added was 1.88. The difference reflects the intermediate inputs for travel imported from abroad. At the state level, these indirect output multipliers are typically lower because relatively more of the intermediate inputs are purchased from outside of the state. At the county or metropolitan level, the multipliers are generally even lower for the same reason. Furthermore, the estimates are usually less reliable because of the data limitations of the regional input-output model used to estimate the indirect effects. The BEA does not report induced effects – the effect of household spending of the direct and indirect labor income. Typically, these induced effects will be larger than the indirect effects at the state or regional level, in part because they are based on both the direct and indirect components.15 As with indirect effects, the induced effects will also tend to be lower for smaller economic areas and the reliability of the estimates will be less. 15 The induced effects can be estimated with the Implan model maintained by the Minnesota Implan Group. PAGE 72 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Secondary effects should be interpreted cautiously. These effects describe the relationship of economic transactions at a point in time. These relationships will not necessarily remain constant with a change in direct economic output. This is because all economic resources have alternative uses. Because of this, it is often difficult to determine the effect of an increase or decrease in visitor spending on the larger economic system over time. THE REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACT MODEL AND TRAVEL & TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNTS COMPARED This appendix has provided an overview of Dean Runyan Associates RTIM and the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ domestic TTSA. These travel industry accounts are similar in terms of how they define the travel industry and the measures of the industry that are reported. The differences stem largely from their different levels of analysis – the BEA provides estimates at the national level only, while the RTIM’s are typically constructed on a state or regional level. Because of this geographic focus, the RTIM provides a distinction between the visitor industry and the travel industry. The RTIM also provides measures of all of the components of economic output and secondary effects at the state or large region level. At smaller units of analysis, however, the emphasis is on earnings and tax receipts generated by travel spending as these are the most reliable and meaningful measures of the economic impact of travel at the local level. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 73 APPENDIX E Arizona Earnings and Employment by Industry Sector, 2012 Earnings Industry Sector Primarily Export-Oriented Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and related Mining Manufacturing **Travel Primarily Non Export-Oriented Construction Utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Real estate and rental and leasing Management of companies and enterprises Administrative and waste services Other services, except public administration Government and government enterprises Mixed Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Professional and technical services Educational services Health care and social assistance Leisure and Hospitality Arizona Total** ($Billion) 16.2 1.2 1.4 13.6 5.3 Percent Employment of Total (Thousand) 9.9% 0.7% 0.8% 8.3% Percent of Total 3.3% 229 42 19 167 161 6.8% 1.3% 0.6% 5.0% 4.8% 83.4 9.1 1.6 8.7 12.4 4.5 2.6 9.3 5.9 29.3 51.1% 5.5% 1.0% 5.4% 7.6% 2.8% 1.6% 5.7% 3.6% 18.0% 1,796 165 13 111 361 232 31 266 175 442 53.7% 4.9% 0.4% 3.3% 10.8% 7.0% 0.9% 7.9% 5.2% 13.2% 63.8 5.2 3.3 11.2 13.1 2.9 20.2 8.0 163.4 39.1% 3.2% 2.0% 6.8% 8.0% 1.8% 12.4% 4.9% 100.0% 1,318 96 49 212 208 71 361 321 3,343 39.4% 2.9% 1.5% 6.3% 6.2% 2.1% 10.8% 9.6% 100.0% **Travel is not included in the sub and grand totals because it is also represented in other sectors (primarily leisure and hospitality, transporation, and retail trade). PAGE 74 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES APPENDIX F Industry Groups Accomm. & Food Serv. Eating & Drinking Hotels and Lodging Places Agric. & Food Proc. Agricultural- Forestry- Fishery Services Animal and Marine Fats and Oils Blended and Prepared Flour Bottled and Canned Soft Drinks & Water Bread- Cake- and Related Products Canned and Cured Sea Foods Canned Fruits and Vegetables Canned Specialties Cattle Feedlots Cereal Preparations Cheese- Natural and Processed Chewing and Smoking Tobacco Chewing Gum Chocolate and Cocoa Products Cigarettes Cigars Commercial Fishing Condensed and Evaporated Milk Confectionery Products Cookies and Crackers Cotton Cottonseed Oil Mills Creamery Butter Dairy Farm Products Dehydrated Food Products Distilled Liquor- Except Brandy Dog- Cat- and Other Pet Food Feed Grains Flavoring Extracts and Syrups- N.E.C. Flour and Other Grain Mill Products Fluid Milk Food Grains Food Preparations- N.E.C Forest Products Forestry Products Frozen Fruits- Juices and Vegetables Frozen Specialties Fruits Grass Seeds DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 75 Agric. & Food Proc. Greenhouse and Nursery Products Hay and Pasture Hogs- Pigs and Swine Ice Cream and Frozen Desserts Landscape and Horticultural Services Macaroni and Spaghetti Malt Malt Beverages Manufactured Ice Meat Packing Plants Miscellaneous Crops Miscellaneous Livestock Oil Bearing Crops Other Meat Animal Products Pickles- Sauces- and Salad Dressings Potato Chips & Similar Snacks Poultry and Eggs Poultry Processing Prepared Feeds- N.E.C Prepared Fresh Or Frozen Fish Or Seafood Ranch Fed Cattle Range Fed Cattle Rice Milling Roasted Coffee Salted and Roasted Nuts & Seeds Sausages and Other Prepared Meats Sheep- Lambs and Goats Shortening and Cooking Oils Soybean Oil Mills Sugar Sugar Crops Tobacco Tobacco Stemming and Redrying Tree Nuts Vegetable Oil Mills- N.E.C Vegetables Wet Corn Milling Wines- Brandy- and Brandy Spirits Arts, Entertain., Rec. Amusement and Recreation Services- N.E.C. Bowling Alleys and Pool Halls Commercial Sports Except Racing Membership Sports and Recreation Clubs Motion Pictures Other Nonprofit Organizations Racing and Track Operation Theatrical Producers- Bands Etc. Water Transportation PAGE 76 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Construction Maintenance and Repair Oil and Gas Wells Maintenance and Repair Other Facilities Maintenance and Repair- Residential New Farm Structures New Government Facilities New Highways and Streets New Industrial and Commercial Buildings New Mineral Extraction Facilities New Residential Structures New Utility Structures Finance, Real Estate Banking Credit Agencies Insurance Agents and Brokers Insurance Carriers Owner-occupied Dwellings Real Estate Security and Commodity Brokers Government Commodity Credit Corporation Federal Electric Utilities Federal Government - Military Federal Government - Non-Military Local Government Passenger Transit Other Federal Government Enterprises Other State and Local Govt Enterprises State & Local Government - Education State & Local Government - Non-Education State and Local Electric Utilities U.S. Postal Service Misc. Manf. Includes all utilities, mining and manfacturing industries not elsewhere classified Misc. Services Advertising Beauty and Barber Shops Computer and Data Processing Services Detective and Protective Services Domestic Services Electrical Repair Service Equipment Rental and Leasing Funeral Service and Crematories Laundry- Cleaning and Shoe Repair Miscellaneous Personal Services Miscellaneous Repair Shops Other Business Services Personnel Supply Services Photofinishing- Commercial Photography Portrait and Photographic Studios Services To Buildings Watch- Clock- Jewelry and Furniture Repair DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 77 Prof. Services Accounting- Auditing and Bookkeeping Business Associations Child Day Care Services Colleges- Universities- Schools Doctors and Dentists Elementary and Secondary Schools Engineering- Architectural Services Hospitals Job Trainings & Related Services Labor and Civic Organizations Legal Services Management and Consulting Services Nursing and Protective Care Other Educational Services Other Medical and Health Services Religious Organizations Research- Development & Testing Services Residential Care Social Services- N.E.C. Retail Trade Apparel & Accessory Stores Building Materials & Gardening Food Stores Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Retail Wholesale Trade Transportation Air Transportation Arrangement Of Passenger Transportation Automobile Parking and Car Wash Automobile Rental and Leasing Automobile Repair and Services Automotive Dealers & Service Stations Local- Interurban Passenger Transit Motor Freight Transport and Warehousing Railroads and Related Services Transportation Services PAGE 78 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES