Arizona Travel Impacts 1998-2012p Photo courtesy of Arizona Office of Tourism June 2013 Prepared for the Arizona Office of Tourism Phoenix, Arizona ARIZONA TRAVEL IMPACTS 1998-2012P Arizona Office of Tourism Primary Research Conducted By: Dean Runyan Associates Portland, Arizona June 2013 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report describes the economic impacts of travel to and through Arizona and the state’s fifteen counties. The estimates of the direct impacts associated with traveler spending in Arizona were produced using the Regional Travel Impact Model (RTIM) developed by Dean Runyan Associates. The estimates for Arizona are generally comparable to the U.S. Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The estimates of spending, earnings, employment and tax receipts are also used as input data to derive estimates of other economic measures, including gross domestic product (GDP) and secondary effects of the travel industry. CONTINUING IMPROVEMENT IN THE ARIZONA TRAVEL INDUSTRY The Arizona travel industry continued its moderate expansion in 2012. Although real spending (adjusted for inflation) and travel-generated employment remain below their pre-recession levels, both spending and employment levels improved – spending for the third consecutive year and employment for the second year. Continuing improvement in the broader economy should foster continued growth in the travel industry. 1  Spending. Total direct travel spending in Arizona was $19.3 billion in 2012. Travel spending increased by 4.6 percent in current dollars compared to 2011. Lodging sales, a primary component in total visitor spending, increased by 4.4 percent for the year – similar to the increases the preceding two years.1 Inflationadjusted (real) travel spending increased by 2.5 percent.  Travel Activity. Visitor air arrivals on domestic flights increased by 0.5 percent, the same rate of increase as the preceding two years. Other indicators of room demand and visitor volume also showed modest increases.  Employment. Travel-generated employment increased by 2.7 percent – an addition of 4,200 jobs. This is the second consecutive year of employment growth in the travel industry since the decline in employment associated with the 2008-2009 recession.  Secondary Impacts. The re-spending of travel-related revenues by businesses and employees supported 139,000 additional jobs outside of the travel industry with earnings of $5.6 billion.  GDP. The Gross Domestic Product of the travel industry was $7.6 billion in 2012. The travel industry and the microelectronics industry have been the top two export-oriented industries in the state in recent years. Taxable lodging sales as reported by the Arizona Department of Revenue. THE ARIZONA TRAVEL INDUSTRY IS A LEADING EXPORT-ORIENTED INDUSTRY Travel and tourism is one of the most important “export-oriented” industries in Arizona. Spending by visitors generates sales in lodging, food services, recreation, transportation and retail businesses – the “travel industry.” These sales support jobs for Arizona residents and contribute tax revenue to local and state governments. Travel is especially important in the non-metropolitan areas of the state, where manufacturing and traded services are less prevalent. Selected Arizona Export-Oriented Industries, 2012p Travel $5.3 Microelectronics $4.6 Aerospace $3.0 Agriculture $1.5 Mining $1.2 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 Earnings in Billions Note: Preliminary 2012 estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Agriculture includes food and beverage processing industries. THE TRAVEL INDUSTRY GENERATES TAX BENEFITS FOR ARIZONA RESIDENTS In 2012, the travel industry generated $1,080 in local, state and federal tax receipts for each Arizona household.  In 2012, more than seven percent of all local and state tax revenues were generated by the travel industry.  The tax revenue impacts of the Arizona travel industry are relatively more important in non-urban counties (see graph). State Transaction Privilege Taxes Generated By Direct Travel Spending, 2012 FY Maricopa & Pima All Other Counties 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Percent Travel-Generated DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES ARIZONA TRAVEL IMPACTS, 1998-2012P I. U.S. Travel II. Arizona Travel Summary of Arizona Travel Travel Trends Visitor Origin Arizona Travel Industry Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product of Arizona Export-Oriented Industries Direct, Secondary & Total Impacts III. State and Local Government Revenue IV. County Travel Impacts Appendices A. B. C. D. E. F 2012 Travel Impact Estimates Key Terms and Definitions Regional Travel Impact Model Travel Industry Accounts Arizona Earnings and Employment by Industry Sector Secondary Impacts Industry Groups DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES page 1 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 17 23 45 46 51 52 53 64 65 PAGE I List of Tables and Figures page I. US Travel Annual Direct Travel Spending in U.S., 2000-2012p Annual U.S. Travel Spending, 2008Q1-2012Q4 International Direct Travel Spending in U.S. Overseas Arrivals to the U.S. U.S. Travel Industry Employment, 2008Q1-2012Q4 U.S. Leisure & Hosp. Sector Average Weekly Hours, 2008-Q1 to 2012-Q4 2 2 3 3 4 4 II. Arizona Travel Arizona Travel Trends, 1998-2012p Arizona Direct Travel Spending, Real and Current Dollars Air Passenger Visitor Arrivals to Arizona, US Air Carriers, 2000-2012 Arizona Lodging Sales, 2009-Q1 to 2012-Q4 Arizona Visitor Spending by Origin of Visitor (2009-2012) International Visitor Spending in Arizona, 2000-2012p Arizona Travel Industry Gross Domestic Product, 2012p Arizona Gross Domestic Product, 2008-11 (Selected Export-Oriented Industries) Total Employment and Earnings Generated by Travel Spending in Arizona, 2012p Direct & Secondary Employment Generated by Travel Spending, 2012p (graph) Direct & Secondary Earnings Generated by Travel Spending, 2012p (graph) Direct & Secondary Employment Generated by Travel Spending, 2012p (table) Direct & Secondary Earnings Generated by Travel Spending, 2012p (table) Arizona Travel Impacts, 2002-2012p (detail) III. State and Local Government Revenue 17 Arizona State & Local Tax Revenue, 2011-12 FY Arizona Travel Industry State & Local Tax Revenues, 2011-12 FY Arizona State & Local Tax Revenues, 2011-12 FY (table) GDP and Tax Payments of Selected Arizona Industries, 2011 Tax Payments as Percent of GDP for Selected Arizona Industries, 2011 State Transaction Privilege Taxes Generated by Travel Spending, 2012 FY IV. County Travel Impacts 17 18 19 20 20 21-22 23 Travel-Generated Earnings Shares, 2012p Travel-Generated Employment and Earnings Shares by County, 2012p County Impact Summary Tables County Impact Detail Tables, 2002-2012p PAGE II 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 14 14 15 15 16 24 25 26-30 31-44 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PREFACE The purpose of this study is to document the economic significance of the travel industry in Arizona from 1998 to 2012. These findings show the level of travel spending by visitors traveling to and within the state, and the impact this spending had on the economy in terms of earnings, employment and tax revenue. Dean Runyan Associates prepared this study for the Arizona Office of Tourism. Dean Runyan Associates has specialized in research and planning services for the travel, tourism and recreation industry since 1984. With respect to economic impact analysis, the firm developed and currently maintains the Regional Travel Impact Model (RTIM), a proprietary computer model for analyzing travel economic impacts at the state, regional and local level. Dean Runyan Associates also has extensive experience in project feasibility analysis, market evaluation, survey research and travel and tourism planning. Many individuals and organizations provided data and assistance for this report. State agencies include the Department of Revenue, Department of Commerce, Gaming Commission and State Parks. Information was also provided by the College of Business and Public Administration at the University of Arizona and the School of Hotel and Restaurant Management at Northern Arizona University. Federal agencies that provided essential data for this report include the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, the U.S. Forest Service, and the National Park Service. Special thanks are due to Melissa Elkins, Research Manager for the Arizona Office of Tourism. Without her support and assistance, this report would not have been possible. Dean Runyan Associates 833 SW 11th Ave., Suite 920 Portland, OR 97205 (503) 226-2973 info@deanrunyan.com www.deanrunyan.com DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE III This page intentionally blank I. U.S. TRAVEL DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 1 The national level data in this section focuses on visitor spending trends in current and real dollars, international visitation to the U.S., and trends in travel-generated employment. The following two graphs are derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts.1 Both graphs show direct tourism output for the United States – spending by domestic and international visitors. Annual Direct Travel Spending in U.S., 2000-12 Tourism Output (Billions) $950 $900 $850 Real $800 $750 Current $700 $650 $600 $550 $500 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Direct Travel Spending in U.S. Real Tourism Output (Billions) 2008-Q1 to 2012-Q4 Annualized Seasonally Adjusted in 2005 Dollars $740 $720 $700 $680 $660 $640 $620 $600 $580 2008 2009 2010 2011 Spending by domestic and international visitors was $865 billion in 2012 in current dollars. This represents a 5.4 percent increase over 2011. When adjusted for changes in prices (constant dollars), spending increased by 2.8 percent – compared to a 6.2 percent increase from 2010 to 2011. In real terms, tourism output has still not recovered from the steep decline in 2008 and 2009. Real travel spending has increased in every quarter since the first quarter of 2009, with the exception of 2012-3Q. The average quarterly rate of increase during this period has been 0.8 percent. The average quarterly rate of decrease from 2008-Q1 to 2009Q2 was 2.8 percent. 2012 Year-Quarter 1 See http://www.bea.gov/industry/index.htm#satellite. PAGE 2 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES The following three graphs are concerned with international travel to the U.S. The first graph is derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts and International Transactions.2 The following two graphs are derived from the monthly international arrival data released by the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries. 3 International Direct Travel Spending in U.S. Amounts in Real Dollars (Billions) International Share of U.S. Internal Travel* $135 International Share Share Spend $125 15% $115 10% $105 $95 5% $85 0% $75 00 02 04 06 08 10 *Airfares for international flights on U.S. air carriers are not included. International Spending (Billion) 20% In real dollars, spending by international visitors in the U.S. increased by 6.6 percent from 2011 to 2012 – the third consecutive year of growth. The international share of U.S. travel spending in 2011 was 14.6 percent – compared to 11 percent in 2003. Overseas Arrivals (Millions) 12p 35 30 Europe Asia 04 06 Other 25 Some of the recent increase in international visitor spending, has been due to favorable exchange rates with respect to the U.S. dollar. Overseas arrivals to the U.S. increased by 5.8 percent in 2011 and by 6.7 percent in 2012. It should also be noted that the increased share of international spending in recent years is in part a function of the relatively modest sluggish growth of domestic travel spending. 20 15 10 5 0 00 50 02 2010 2011 08 10 12p 2012 40 30 20 10 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2 See www.bea.gov/international/index.htm for quarterly international estimates of travel and tourism exports (travel to the U.S. by international visitors). 3 See http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/research/monthly/index.html. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 3 The following two graphs show quarterly employment trends since 2008 for seasonally adjusted data.* Travel-generated employment was at its lowest level in the first quarter of 2010 -- one year after the low point for real travel spending (see graph, page 2). This is why employment is generally a lagging indicator of overall economic activity. One of the reasons for this is that employers often adjust the length of work before making employment decisions. The second graph indicates this -- the average hourly work week was at its low-point in the first quarter of 2009 and began to increase one year before any growth in employment. U.S. Travel Industry Employment Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates 2008-Q1 to 2012-Q4 6.0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel & Tourism Satellite Accounts. Travel industry employment includes the travel-supported component of accommodations, food services, transportation, retail and recreation (including arts and entertainment). 5.9 Millions of Jobs 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 2010-1 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 U.S. Leisure & Hospitality Average Weekly Hours Seasonally Adjusted, 2008-Q1 to 2012-Q4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey. The Leisure and Hospitality sectors include all businesses in recreation (NAICS 71) and accommodation and food services (NAICS 72). 26.2 Average Weekly Hours 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.8 2009-1 25.7 25.6 25.5 *Seasonal adjustment permits quarter to quarter trend analysis. 25.4 25.3 2008 PAGE 4 2009 2010 2011 2012 Nationally, actual employment and hours worked in leisure and hospitality are greatest in the 3rd quarter. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES II. ARIZONA TRAVEL DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 5 The multi-billion dollar travel industry in Arizona is an important part of the state and local economies. The industry is represented primarily by businesses in the leisure and hospitality sector, transportation, and retail. The money that visitors spend on various goods and services while in Arizona produces business receipts at these firms, which in turn generate earnings and employment for Arizona residents. In addition, state and local governments collect taxes that are generated from visitor spending. Most of these taxes are imposed on the sale of goods and services to visitors, thus avoiding a tax burden on local residents. The economic impacts directly generated by visitor spending also contribute to significant secondary impacts. A portion of the business receipts generated by visitor spending is spent by businesses within Arizona for other goods and services (indirect impacts). Visitor generated earnings are also spent by employees for goods and services produced in Arizona (induced impacts). SUMMARY OF ARIZONA TRAVEL  Total direct travel spending in Arizona was $19.3 billion in 2012. This represents a 4.6 percent increase over the preceding year in current dollars. In real dollars (adjusted for inflation) Arizona travel spending increased by 2.5 percent over 2011. Real travel spending is still below its peak prior to the 2007-2009 recession.  Lodging sales, a primary component of visitor spending, increased by 4.4 percent from 2011 to 2012 following a 3.9 percent increase the preceding year and a 4.6 percent increase from 2009 to 2010.  Visitor air travel on domestic flights to Arizona destinations increased by 0.5 percent in 2012, following similar increases the preceding two years. Air travel to Arizona declined by 8 percent per year in 2008 and 2009.  Direct travel-generated employment was 161,300 in 2012. This represents an addition of 4,200, an increase of 2.7 percent. This is the second consecutive year that travel-generated employment has increased since the declines associated with the 2008-2009 recession.  Although neither real (inflation-adjusted) travel spending nor employment has recovered to their pre-recessionary levels, continuing improvement in the overall economy should stimulate the travel industry. The overall pattern in Arizona is similar to U.S. travel (see preceding section).  The Gross Domestic Product of the travel industry was $7.6 billion in 2012. The travel industry and the microelectronics industry have been the top two exportoriented industries in the state in recent years.  The re-spending of travel-related revenues by businesses and employees creates secondary impacts. In 2012, the secondary impacts were 139,000 jobs with $5.6 billion in earnings. PAGE 6 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES TRAVEL TRENDS Total direct travel spending in Arizona was $19.3 billion in 2012. This represents a 4.6 percent increase over the preceding year in current dollars. Lodging sales, a primary component of visitor spending, increased by 4.4 percent. 1 Most other commodities, including transportation, increased by similar amounts. This travel spending resulted in 4,200 additional jobs in the travel industry, an increase of 2.7 percent. This is the second consecutive year that travel-generated employment has increased. Following the steep decline in travel to Arizona brought on by the 2007-2009 recession, travel activity in the state has shown moderate improvement over the past three years. Although neither real travel spending (see graph, next page) nor employment have recovered to their pre-recessionary levels, continuing improvement in general economic conditions should stimulate the travel industry. The overall pattern in Arizona is similar to the larger U.S. travel industry (see preceding section). Arizona Travel Trends, 1998-2012p Spending 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p Earnings Employment ($Billion) ($Billion) (Thousand) 11.8 12.7 13.7 13.2 13.2 14.1 15.2 16.8 17.8 18.1 18.0 16.4 17.5 18.5 19.3 3.4 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.4 152.7 157.9 160.0 153.2 151.1 154.4 158.5 164.8 168.5 168.0 165.2 156.3 154.3 157.1 161.3 4.2 3.4 2.7 0.4 Tax Revenue ($Million) Local/State Federal Total 966 750 1,717 1,043 804 1,847 1,120 853 1,973 1,078 788 1,865 1,111 800 1,911 1,176 843 2,019 1,254 917 2,171 1,364 982 2,346 1,424 1,049 2,474 1,459 1,095 2,554 1,444 1,074 2,518 1,364 1,033 2,397 1,421 1,057 2,477 1,529 1,008 2,536 1,578 1,051 2,628 Annual Percentage Change 11-12p 98-12p 4.6 3.6 3.2 3.6 4.3 2.4 3.6 3.1 Note: Estimates for 2012p are preliminary. The percentage change for 1998-2012p refers to the average annual percentage change. These direct travel impacts do not include secondary (indirect and induced) impacts. One-way visitor airfares are included. Total earnings include wage and salary disbursements, other earned income and proprietor income. Employment includes full- and part-time payroll employees and self-employed. 1 Taxable lodging sales as reported by Arizona Department of Revenue. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 7 Arizona Direct Travel Spending Real and Current Dollars Travel Spending (Billions) $22 $20 Real $18 Current $16 $14 $12 $10 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12p Air Passenger Visitor Arrivals to Arizona In real dollars (adjusted for inflation) Arizona travel spending increased by 2.6 percent over 2011. In contrast to 2011, there were relatively small annual price increases for lodging and transportation. Real travel spending is still below its peak during 2005 through 2007. Sources: Smith Travel Research, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation Origin and Destination Survey, and Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-West Urban. U.S. Air Carriers, 2000-2012 Visitor Air Arrivals (Millions) 8.5 Visitor air arrivals to Arizona increased by 0.5 percent from 2011 to 2012, the same rate of increase as the preceding two years. 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 Sources: U.S. Department of Transportation Origin and Destination Survey and Dean Runyan Associates. 5.5 5.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Arizona Taxable Lodging Sales 2009-Q1 to 2012-Q4 Hotel/Motel Taxable Sales (Millions) $800 2009 $700 2010 2011 2012 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 Source: Arizona Department of Revenue. $100 $0 PAGE 8 Taxable lodging sales increased by 4.4 percent annually from 2011 to 2012. This follows annual increases of 3.9 percent and 4.6 percent for the preceding two years. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES VISITOR ORIGIN Out-of-state travelers generate more than three-fourths of the visitor impacts in Arizona. Visitors from other states are the largest segment (almost 66 percent of spending), while international travel, including day travel from Mexico, comprises approximately 16 percent of visitor impacts. Arizona Travel Impacts by Origin of Visitor, 2012p Origin Spending Earnings Employment Tax Receipts ($ Million) ($ Billion) ($ Billion) (Thousand) Local/State Federal 3.7 10.6 2.8 17.1 2.2 19.3 0.8 3.1 0.6 4.5 0.9 5.4 29.9 97.4 20.7 148.0 13.4 161.3 328 998 231 1,557 20 1,578 166 657 98 921 130 1,051 Arizona Other U.S. International All Visitors Other Travel Total Travel Sources: Dean Runyan Associates, International Trade Administration and Bureau of Economic Analysis (U.S. Dept. of Commerce), TNS TravelsAmerica visitor survey, Statistics Canada, Vera Pavlakovich-Kochi and Alberta H. Charney, “Mexican Visitors to Arizona: Visitor Characteristics and Economic Impacts, 2007-08” (Karl Eller College of Business and Public Administration, University of Arizona) and Bureau of Transportation Statistics Border Crossing/Entry Data. International Visitor Spending in Arizona, 2000-2012p Spending in Real (2012) Dollars International Share 20% Share $2.8 Spend $2.7 15% $2.6 $2.5 10% $2.4 $2.3 5% $2.2 $2.1 0% $2.0 00 02 04 06 08 10 12p Sources: See above chart for source of international estimates. See first graph on preceding page for constant dollar estimates. Constant dollar visitor spending does not include “Other Travel.” DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 9 ARIZONA TRAVEL INDUSTRY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT In concept, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of a particular industry is equal to gross output (sales or receipts) minus intermediate inputs (the goods and services purchased from other industries). GDP is always smaller than output or sales because GDP measures only the “value added” of an industry and does not include the cost of the inputs that are also necessary to produce a good or service. Alternatively, GDP can be thought of as the sum of earnings, indirect business taxes (primarily excise and property taxes) and other operating surplus (including profits). Estimates of travel spending and travel industry GDP are shown in the chart below. Arizona travel industry GDP amounted to $7.6 billion in 2012. Arizona travel industry GDP represented 2.9 percent of the total Arizona GDP in 2012. About 60 percent of all travel spending in Arizona is attributed to intermediate inputs and goods resold at retail. Intermediate inputs cover a range of goods and services that are purchased by travel industry businesses for the purpose of creating a product or service for the traveler. For example, lodging establishments purchase cable television services. Restaurants purchase food and beverages from vendors. In both cases, these inputs are classified as the GDP of other industries. In addition, travel spending occurs at many retail establishments where the goods purchased from the retailer are purchased as finished goods from suppliers. These resold goods are also counted as products of other industries. This would include motor fuel, groceries and most of the commodities sold at retail establishments.2 Arizona Travel Industry Gross Domestic Product, 2012p $20 $15 Billions 11.7 $5.4 Earnings $10 $5 $0 $11.7 Inputs $2.3 Surplus & Taxes 5.4 5.4 2.3 2.3 Spending ($19.3) GDP ($7.6) Sources: Dean Runyan Associates, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Minnesota Implan Group. Details may not add to totals due to rounding. 2 About 38 percent of the $11.7 billion of inputs and goods resold are purchased from other Arizona businesses. PAGE 10 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OF ARIZONA EXPORT-ORIENTED INDUSTRIES Export-oriented industries are those industries that primarily market their products and services to other regions, states or nations. 3 Agriculture, mining, and manufacturing are the best examples of export-oriented industries. Clearly, there are cases in each of these three sectors where the products are sold within the local or regional market. Nonetheless, in general most businesses within these industries depend on export markets. The travel industry is also an export-oriented industry because goods and services are sold to visitors, rather than residents. The travel industry injects money into the local economy, as do the exports of other industries. Exports are not necessarily more important than locally traded goods and services. However, diverse export-oriented industries in any economy are a source of strength – in part because they generate income that contributes to the development of other local services and amenities. Such industries characterize the “comparative advantage” of the local economy within larger regional, national and global markets. A comparison of the GDP’s of the leading export-oriented industries in Arizona is shown below. Sufficient data for 2012 is not yet available for the comparison industries. As noted, the figures for 2011 are estimated by Dean Runyan Associates. Arizona Gross Domestic Product, 2008-2011 Selected Export-Oriented Industries 2008 2009 2010 2011 Agric./Food Proc. Mining Micro-Electronics Aerospace Travel $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 Gross Domestic Product (Billions) Sources: Dean Runyan Associates and Bureau of Economic Analysis. The travel industry and the microelectronics industry (NAICS 334) have been the leading two export-oriented industries in the state in recent years. 3 See also pages 52 of Appendix A and page 66 of Appendix C. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 11 DIRECT, SECONDARY AND TOTAL IMPACTS Travel spending within Arizona brings money into many Arizona communities in the form of business receipts. Portions of these receipts are spent within the state for labor and supplies. Employees, in turn, spend a portion of their earnings on goods and services in the state. This re-spending of travel-related revenues creates indirect and induced impacts. To summarize:  Direct impacts represent the employment and earnings attributable to travel expenditures made directly by travelers at businesses throughout the state.  Indirect impacts represent the employment and earnings associated with industries that supply goods and services to the direct businesses (i.e., those that receive money directly from travelers throughout the state).  Induced impacts represent the employment and earnings that result from purchases for food, housing, transportation, recreation, and other goods and services made by travel industry employees, and the employees of the indirectly affected industries. Total Employment and Earnings Generated by Travel Spending in Arizona, 2012p Employment (Thousands) Induced 101.8 Indirect 36.9 Earnings (Billions) Induced $4.1 Direct 161.3 Direct $5.4 Indirect $1.5 Note: Indirect and induced impacts estimated by Dean Runyan Associates with Minnesota IMPLAN model. Total employment was 301,000. The employment multiplier for 2012 is 1.86 (300/161). Total earnings were $11.0 billion. The earnings multiplier is 2.05 (($11.0/$5.4). PAGE 12 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES The impacts in this section are presented in terms of the employment and earnings of eleven major industry groups. These industry groups are similar, but not identical to the business service (or commodity) categories presented elsewhere in this report. (The specific industries that comprise these major groups are listed in Appendix D.) Direct travel impacts, such as those discussed in the first part of this section and the regional and county impacts presented elsewhere in this report are found in the following industry groups:  Accommodations & Food Services  Arts, Entertainment and Recreation  Retail Trade  Transportation As is indicated in the following tables and graphs, the total direct employment and earnings of these four industry groups is identical to the total direct employment and earnings shown in the first part of this section. The only difference is that these industry groups represent industry groupings (firms) rather than commodity or business service groupings. The indirect and induced impacts of travel spending are found in all eleven-industry groupings shown in the following tables and graphs. To summarize the primary secondary impacts:  Professional Services (30,000 jobs and $1.8 billion earnings). Legal, medical, educational and other professional services are utilized by travel businesses (indirect effect) and by employees of these firms (induced effect).  Other Services (12,000 jobs and $384 million earnings). Employees of travelrelated businesses purchase services from various providers, such as dry cleaners and repair shops. Similarly, travel businesses utilize a number of service providers, such as laundry, maintenance and business services.  Government (22,000 jobs and $1.3 billion earnings). Employees of travel-related businesses pay fees to attend public educational institutions and to operate motor vehicles.  Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (10,000 jobs and $498 million earnings). Employees and businesses use the services of financial institutions, insurers and real estate businesses. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 13 Direct and Secondary Employment Generated by Travel Spending in Arizona, 2012p Accomm. & Food Serv. Arts, Entertain., Rec. Retail Trade Transportation Prof. Services Government Other Services Finance, Ins., & Real… Construction Mining & Manufacturing Agric.& Food Processing Direct 0 20 Secondary 40 60 80 100 Direct and Secondary Employment (Thousands) Direct and Secondary Earnings Generated by Travel Spending in Arizona, 2012p Accomm. & Food Serv. Transportation Prof. Services Government Arts, Entertain., Rec. Retail Trade Construction Finance, Ins., & Real Estate Other Services Mining & Manufacturing Agric.& Food Processing Direct $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 Secondary $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 Direct and Secondary Earnings (Billions) See notes at end of table on page 20. Detailed estimates are reported in the following table. It should be emphasized that the estimates of indirect and induced impacts reported here apply to the entire state of Arizona and do not necessarily reflect economic patterns for individual counties, regions or subregions within the state. While total economic impacts can be calculated on a county or regional level, such a detailed analysis is not included in this study. In general, geographic areas with lower levels of aggregate economic activity will have smaller secondary impacts within those same geographic boundaries. PAGE 14 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Direct & Secondary Visitor-Generated Employment in Arizona, 2012p (thousand jobs) Industry Group Accomm. & Food Serv. Arts, Entertain., Rec. Retail Trade Transportation Prof. Services Government Other Services Finance, Ins., & Real Estate Construction Mining & Manufacturing Agric.& Food Processing All Industries Direct 83 37 15 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 161 Secondary Indirect Induced 4 8 5 2 3 17 5 4 8 22 1 21 5 7 4 7 1 9 1 2 1 1 37 102 Total 12 7 20 9 30 22 12 10 10 4 2 139 Grand Total 95 45 35 35 30 22 12 10 10 4 2 300 Direct & Secondary Visitor-Generated Earnings in Arizona, 2012p ($ Million) Industry Group Accomm. & Food Serv. Transportation Prof. Services Government Arts, Entertain., Rec. Retail Trade Construction Finance, Ins., & Real Estate Other Services Mining & Manufacturing Agric.& Food Processing All Industries Direct 2,207 1,705 0 0 977 468 0 0 0 0 0 5,357 Secondary Indirect Induced 72 164 122 36 516 1,236 84 1,172 195 55 12 139 48 558 174 324 185 199 108 177 32 35 1,549 4,096 Total 236 159 1,752 1,256 250 152 606 498 384 285 67 5,646 Grand Total 2,443 1,863 1,752 1,256 1,227 620 606 498 384 285 67 11,003 Source: Dean Runyan Associates and Minnesota Implan Group. Note: These industry groups are not equivalent to the categories used in the direct impact tables used in this report. See Appendix D. Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Detailed direct travel impacts for 2002 through 2012p are shown on the following page. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 15 Arizona Direct Travel Impacts, 2002-2012p 2002 2004 2006 2008 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Billion) Destination Spending 11.7 13.5 15.7 15.8 Other Travel* 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.1 Total Direct Spending 13.2 15.2 17.8 18.0 Visitor Spending by Type of Traveler Accommodation ($Billion) Hotel, Motel 5.4 6.4 7.7 7.3 Private Home 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.8 Campground 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 Vacation Home 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Day Travel 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.5 Destination Spending 11.7 13.5 15.7 15.8 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Billion) Accommodations 2.0 2.3 2.8 2.7 Food Service 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.2 Food Stores 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 Local Tran. & Gas 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.2 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.0 Retail Sales 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.3 Visitor Air Tran. 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.5 Destination Spending 11.7 13.5 15.7 15.8 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Billion) Accom. & Food Serv. 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.1 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 Retail** 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Ground Tran. 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Visitor Air Tran. 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 Other Travel* 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 Total Direct Earnings 3.8 4.3 4.9 5.1 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 74.9 78.5 83.5 83.0 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 33.5 36.4 38.5 37.3 Retail** 17.7 18.3 19.6 19.9 Ground Tran. 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.3 Visitor Air Tran. 7.2 7.7 8.2 7.8 Other Travel* 14.5 14.2 15.1 14.0 Total Direct Employment 151.1 158.5 168.5 165.2 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million)*** Local and State 1,111 1,254 1,424 1,444 Federal Tax Receipts 800 917 1,049 1,074 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 1,911 2,171 2,474 2,518 2010 2011 2012p 15.5 2.0 17.5 16.4 2.1 18.5 17.1 2.2 19.3 7.1 3.9 0.5 0.7 3.4 15.5 7.5 4.1 0.5 0.7 3.6 16.4 7.7 4.2 0.7 0.7 3.8 17.1 2.4 3.4 0.8 2.9 2.1 2.4 1.5 15.5 2.5 3.5 0.9 3.5 2.1 2.4 1.5 16.4 2.6 3.6 0.9 3.7 2.1 2.5 1.6 17.1 2.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.8 4.9 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.8 5.1 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.9 5.4 79.3 81.1 35.4 35.7 16.7 16.7 3.4 3.5 7.0 7.3 12.4 12.7 154.3 157.1 82.7 37.3 16.7 3.6 7.6 13.4 161.3 1,421 1,529 1,057 1,008 2,477 2,536 1,578 1,051 2,628 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. ***Local and State tax revenues include property taxes and taxes attributable to travel industry employees. These tax receipts are not included in the county breakouts. PAGE 16 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES III. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE This section of the report provides an analysis of the state and local government revenue supported by the travel industry. Most major sources of government revenue, including sales, property and income taxes are included. The pie chart below, adapted from the Bureau of the Census’ State and Local Government Finance and other data sources, shows the main categories of tax revenue in Arizona. About one-half of all state and local tax revenue in Arizona is derived from sales or gross receipts taxes.1 Three-fourths of all sales taxes are collected by the state. The next largest category is property taxes -- paid primarily by homeowners and businesses to local governments.2 All income taxes (80 percent paid by individuals) are collected by the state. Arizona State and Local Government Tax Revenues Property $7.4 35.5% 2011-12 Fiscal Year (Billion) License & Other $0.8 3.7% Sales & Gross Receipts $9.7 46.5% Income $3.0 14.3% Sources: The 2011-12 fiscal year estimates of state and local tax revenues in Arizona were prepared by Dean Runyan Associates from various sources, including the Bureau of the Census (State and Local Government Finance), the Arizona Department of Revenue, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and a selection of annual financial reports for cities and counties. The state transaction privilege tax is designated as a general sales tax. Over 90 percent of all property taxes are local. About 80 percent of all income tax receipts are personal (vs. corporate). Selective sales taxes include taxes on lodging, motor fuel, alcohol, tobacco and public utilities. Other taxes include license taxes. State tax receipts comprise 60 percent of all state and local tax receipts. The primary sources of travel industry tax revenue are:  Sales tax receipts generated by visitor spending. This includes local and state sales taxes, lodging taxes, and motor fuel taxes. Other selective sales 1 The state transaction privilege tax is considered a sales tax in this report. Businesses pay 62 percent of all property taxes in Arizona based on calculations by Dean Runyan Associates from data reported by the Bureau of the Census, State and Local Government Finance and Property Taxes on Business Capital, Ernst and Young (March 2006). 2 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 17 taxes (e.g., cigarettes, liquor) were not estimated separately from the general sales tax.  Taxes paid by travel industry employees attributable to travel generated earnings (sales, property and income taxes). The estimates for these taxes were based primarily on the share of travel industry earnings in relation to total personal income in the state.  Taxes paid by travel industry businesses attributable to travel generated business receipts (property and income taxes). The estimates for these taxes were based primarily on the share of travel industry earnings in relation to total earnings in the state. Other business taxes, such as licenses and payroll taxes, were not included. The distribution of taxes generated by the travel industry for the 2011-12 fiscal year is shown in the following pie chart. The categories are the same as the preceding figure, with the exception that sales tax receipts are also distinguished between those that are generated by visitor spending and those that are generated by the spending of travel industry employees. Arizona Travel Industry State and Local Government Tax Revenues 2010-12 Fiscal Year (Million) Income $105 6.9% Employee Sales $191 12.5% Property $171 11.2% Other $18 1.2% Trav-Gen. Sales $1,038 68.2% Source: Dean Runyan Associates. “Other” travel-generated tax revenue includes gaming taxes. Whereas slightly less than one-half of all state and local tax revenue in Arizona was attributable to sales tax collections in the 2011-12 fiscal year, 81 percent of all travel industry tax revenue was attributable to sales tax receipts from visitors (68.2 percent) and the purchases of employees in the travel industry (12.5 percent). More than two-thirds of all tax revenues supported by the travel industry was directly related to visitor spending. Travel industry state and local tax revenues are compared to total Arizona state and local tax revenues in the following table. Because the travel industry generates a relatively high proportion of sales tax revenues, it is associated with proportionately PAGE 18 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES more tax revenues than would be expected given the size of the industry, as measured by earnings or gross domestic product. Whereas the earnings and GDP of the travel industry are in the range of 3 percent of the state totals, travel industry tax revenues represent more than 7 percent of all state and local tax revenues in Arizona. Arizona State and Local Tax Revenues 2011-12 Fiscal Year ($Million) Sales & Gross Receipts Income Property License & Other Total Tax Receipts Travel Total Generated 9,710 1,230 2,980 100 7,410 170 780 20 20,880 1,520 Percent Travel 12.7% 3.5% 2.3% 2.3% 7.3% Source: Dean Runyan Associates and Bureau of the Census, State and Local Government Finance. The tax revenue benefits of the travel industry are also borne out in comparison with other industries. This is illustrated in the table and figure below. The concept of Gross Domestic Product was discussed earlier (page 11; see also appendix pages 49-50). The tax payment categories are defined as follows:  Indirect Business Taxes (IBT) include all property taxes, licenses, fees and sales taxes paid by the firm to all levels of government. Business income taxes are not included. Overall, sales taxes are the largest component. Even though consumers normally paid these taxes at the point of sale, they are defined as indirect business taxes in terms of GDP. Indirect Business Taxes are an official category of Gross Domestic Product, as defined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  Employee Property and Income Taxes (EPIT) include the state and local property and income taxes paid by employees. These personal tax payments are estimated by Dean Runyan Associates on the basis of industry earnings and tax revenue data. EPIT is not an official category. The tax payments generated by the travel industry in relation to Gross Domestic Product are greater than all industries except retail trade. Retail trade tax payments are especially high, of course, because of sales tax payments. However, in contrast to the travel industry, the sales taxes paid by retail establishments are primarily taxes on residents rather than visitors. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 19 GDP and Tax Payments of Selected Arizona Industries 2011 Calendar Year ($Million) Construction Health Care Manufacturing Retail Travel All Industries Indirect Bus. Taxes 276 452 596 3,647 1,263 16,145 GDP 11,840 20,215 20,037 19,420 7,301 255,989 Employee Inc. Sum of Bus. & & Prop. Taxes Employee Taxes 226 502 343 795 323 919 476 4,123 133 1,396 5,853 21,998 Tax Payments as Percent of GDP for Selected Arizona Industries 2011 Calendar Year Construction IBT Health Care EPIT Manufacturing Retail Travel All Industries 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Percent of Gross Domestic Product Table and graph sources: Bureau and Economic Analysis and Dean Runyan Associates. Travel industry and employee income and property tax payments estimated by Dean Runyan Associates. Other GDP and Indirect Business Taxes estimated by Bureau of Economic Analysis. *Travel Industry Business & Employee tax payments of $1,396 million are lower than the estimate on page 19 because business income taxes are not included and because employee sales tax payments are included in the indirect business taxes of other industries (especially retail trade). This is consistent with GDP accounting. PAGE 20 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES It is also important to recognize that the local and state tax revenues generated by travel spending are proportionately more important for non-urban areas. There are two reasons for this. First, the travel industry generally comprises a larger proportion of the economy in non-urban areas. Second, counties and municipalities impose special excise taxes on visitors (lodging, eating and drinking establishments, auto rentals) that are disproportionately borne by visitors, rather than residents. The first point is illustrated in the chart below, where the percentage of the state transaction privilege tax generated by travel spending for two groups of counties is displayed. Maricopa and Pima counties – the most urbanized counties in the state – generate relatively lower tax impacts from visitor spending than do the less urbanized counties in the state. State Transaction Privilege Taxes Generated By Direct Travel Spending, 2012 FY Maricopa & Pima All Other Counties 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Percent Travel-Generated Source: Dean Runyan Associates and Arizona Department of Revenue. Detailed estimates for each county are also shown. The visitor-related share of local excise taxes would generally be somewhat higher, due to local taxes on lodging, eating and drinking, and auto rentals, as noted above. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 21 State Transaction Privilege Taxes Generated by Direct Travel Spending, 2012 FY Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham/Greenlee La Paz Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Percent Travel-Generated Source: Dean Runyan Associates and Arizona Department of Revenue. These estimates represent the total state transaction privilege tax receipts generated by travel spending. Counties and municipalities generally are allocated a portion of these receipts based on resident population. Other county and municipal excise taxes are also imposed on visitors. To summarize this analysis of travel-generated state and local government revenue:  The travel industry accounted for more than seven percent of all state and local tax revenues in Arizona in the 2011-12 fiscal year – more than twice the industry proportion of statewide earnings and gross domestic product.  Most of the travel industry tax receipts are a result of visitor spending rather than taxes on Arizona residents.  The proportion of tax receipts generated by the Arizona travel industry in relation to industry GDP is twice as great as the statewide industry average.  The tax revenues generated by the travel industry are relatively more important for the non-urban areas of the state as compared to the urbanized areas of greater Phoenix and Tucson. PAGE 22 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES IV: COUNTY TRAVEL IMPACTS 1998-2012P DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 23 The analysis of travel impacts at the county level provides a valuable overview of how the economic benefits of travel and tourism are distributed throughout the state. Urban areas, such as Maricopa County, tend to have highly developed travel industry infrastructure consisting of large inventories of amusement and recreation opportunities, commercial accommodations, and well-developed transportation links. Hotel/motel guests are important to these areas and, hence, a large proportion of travel expenditures are spent on overnight lodging. In many of the less urbanized areas of Arizona, however, the economic significance of travel and tourism is actually relatively more important. The infrastructure that serves visitors to Maricopa County also serves local residents. Most of the spending on recreation and food services in Maricopa county is by local residents. This is not the case in most other less urbanized areas of the state – leisure and hospitality businesses are generally much more dependent on visitor spending rather than local residents. In the graph below, the two most populous counties in Arizona, Maricopa and Pima, are compared with the thirteen other counties in the state with respect to their share of total employment – two-thirds of all travel-generated jobs in the state are in the two most populous counties. Distribution of Travel-Generated Employment, 2012p Percent of State Direct Travel-Generated Employment All other 33% Maricopa & Pima 67% Source: Dean Runyan Associates, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total and travel-generated employments estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. PAGE 24 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES However, as a group the less urbanized counties in the state actually have a higher proportion of travel-generated employment in relation to the total employment of the county. This is shown graphically below. Four percent of all employment in Maricopa and Pima counties is travel-generated. By contrast, the proportion is more than double in for the other Arizona counties. Percent of Total Area Employment that is Travel-Generated, 2012p Maricopa & Pima All other 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: Dean Runyan Associates, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total and travel-generated employment estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Travelgenerate employment in Maricopa and Pima counties constitutes 4.0 percent of all employment in those counties. The comparable figure for other Arizona counties is 9.2 percent. In general, the employment and earnings estimates provided in the preceding figures are probably the best measure at the county level of the relative importance of travel and tourism for local economies. The following table provides estimates for individual counties. Total employment includes all full-time and part-time wage and salary employment and self-employment. Because total employment includes all jobs, regardless of the hours worked, the average annual earnings of the job or the number of individuals employed, this indicator is in some respects less useful than earnings estimates. Nonetheless, the distribution of counties is similar for earnings and employment. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 25 Travel-Generated Employment and Earnings as Percent of Total, 2012p Employment Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham/Greenlee La Paz Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma Arizona Total Total 30,510 55,540 83,020 21,580 17,050 7,590 2,241,050 61,020 39,660 487,740 80,710 17,770 82,060 82,530 3,307,840 Travel 1,590 3,660 10,870 2,990 980 1,230 86,000 5,950 3,440 22,340 5,590 1,960 8,090 6,660 161,340 Earnings (Million) Percent Travel 5.2% 6.6% 13.1% 13.9% 5.7% 16.2% 3.8% 9.8% 8.7% 4.6% 6.9% 11.0% 9.9% 8.1% 4.9% Total $1,144 $2,843 $3,213 $793 $750 $345 $114,167 $2,277 $1,466 $21,424 $3,423 $790 $2,773 $3,765 $159,173 Travel $32 $75 $282 $64 $14 $30 $3,558 $129 $80 $577 $135 $49 $179 $153 $5,357 Percent Travel 2.8% 2.6% 8.8% 8.1% 1.8% 8.8% 3.1% 5.7% 5.4% 2.7% 4.0% 6.1% 6.5% 4.1% 3.4% Source: Dean Runyan Associates, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total and travel-generated employment estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Note: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. Detailed direct travel impact estimates for 1998 through 2012p can be found on the following pages. As noted in the appendix to this report, county level estimates are necessarily less reliable than the statewide estimates. Furthermore, estimates for the smallest counties are less reliable than those for larger counties due to survey sample sizes and other data limitations. For this reason, small changes in year-toyear estimates are less important than longer-term trends. PAGE 26 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES 2012p Arizona County Travel Impacts Travel Spending Total Visitor Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham/Greenlee La Paz Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma Arizona Earnings Related Travel-Generated Impacts Employment Local Taxes State Taxes Total Taxes ($Million) ($Million) ($Million) (jobs) ($Million) ($Million) ($Million) 127 348 1,045 282 77 146 11,533 536 304 2,665 628 271 699 657 19,318 110 316 1,000 270 66 142 8,758 471 279 2,129 537 260 638 595 ** 32 75 282 64 14 30 3,558 129 80 577 135 49 179 153 5,357 1,590 3,660 10,870 2,990 980 1,230 86,000 5,950 3,440 22,340 5,590 1,960 8,090 6,660 161,340 3.6 10.7 29.7 5.0 1.8 2.9 338.5 10.6 7.9 50.1 11.7 5.0 15.6 14.3 507.2 5.6 14.3 43.3 11.5 3.4 5.8 395.5 21.4 13.2 100.4 26.7 10.0 28.5 26.2 705.7 9.1 25.0 73.0 16.5 5.1 8.7 733.9 32.0 21.1 150.5 38.4 15.0 44.1 40.5 1,212.9 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Property taxes and sales taxes paid by travel industry employees not included in the county estimates due to data limitations. The local and state tax estimates for the state of Arizona (Sections II and III of this report) include property taxes and the sales taxes paid by travel industry employees. **The sum of county visitor spending is less than statewide visitor spending because a portion of county ground transportation is allocated to “other travel” at the county level. See appendix, page 46. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 27 Arizona County Total Travel Spending, 1998-2012p ($ Millions) Annual Percent Chg. 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p Apache 83 104 99 97 101 115 122 123 147 119 120 126 127 Cochise 226 269 271 281 311 331 340 367 375 352 365 361 348 Coconino 639 704 667 713 758 812 845 885 939 879 938 998 1,045 Gila 195 218 213 221 228 248 260 269 260 245 256 269 282 Graham/Greenlee 36 44 40 41 42 49 62 65 67 52 61 69 77 La Paz 105 114 117 121 122 134 127 130 133 130 128 138 146 Maricopa 6,997 8,114 7,570 8,235 8,960 9,993 10,659 10,851 10,584 9,480 10,292 10,912 11,533 Mohave 310 351 377 408 422 459 516 504 515 478 511 528 536 Navajo 195 249 231 229 232 256 280 281 308 262 272 291 304 Pima 1,832 2,110 2,098 2,170 2,362 2,618 2,697 2,649 2,550 2,380 2,481 2,588 2,665 Pinal 222 252 272 285 320 362 417 480 526 497 580 636 628 Santa Cruz 242 280 289 280 299 302 281 284 282 294 261 239 271 Yavapai 372 469 477 497 510 573 613 640 651 584 613 661 699 Yuma 377 439 458 478 518 556 585 590 624 611 603 650 657 Arizona 11,832 13,716 13,180 14,055 15,188 16,809 17,802 18,118 17,960 16,364 17,479 18,467 19,318 11-12p 0.9 -3.4 4.7 5.1 10.9 6.3 5.7 1.4 4.6 3.0 -1.4 13.2 5.8 1.0 4.6 98-12p 3.1 3.1 3.6 2.7 5.9 2.4 3.6 4.0 3.2 2.7 7.7 0.8 4.6 4.1 3.8 Note: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. PAGE 28 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Arizona County Travel-Generated Earnings, 1998-2012p ($ Millions) Annual Percent Chg. Apache Cochise Coconino Gila Graham/Greenlee La Paz Maricopa Mohave Navajo Pima Pinal Santa Cruz Yavapai Yuma Arizona 1998 20 50 189 50 8 23 2,200 85 48 401 54 44 105 86 3,363 2000 24 57 204 54 10 25 2,551 94 60 460 58 49 129 97 3,874 2002 24 59 195 54 9 26 2,431 104 57 479 65 52 133 103 3,792 2003 23 61 206 55 9 26 2,592 110 55 480 66 50 137 108 3,978 2004 23 67 221 56 9 26 2,814 110 56 517 73 54 139 118 4,283 2005 25 70 228 61 11 28 3,014 116 59 563 81 54 152 120 4,583 2006 27 73 240 65 14 27 3,281 133 66 580 94 52 165 131 4,947 2007 29 82 265 68 15 28 3,425 133 68 582 112 54 177 135 5,173 2008 32 84 283 66 15 29 3,298 136 76 556 122 54 180 144 5,075 2009 31 81 267 63 12 29 3,158 133 69 538 121 54 164 145 4,865 2010 30 81 262 60 12 29 3,247 127 71 538 126 50 162 143 4,939 2011 2012p 30 32 76 75 271 282 61 64 13 14 30 30 3,418 3,558 124 129 73 80 548 577 132 135 44 49 168 179 153 153 5,142 5,357 11-12p 5.8 -1.6 3.9 5.5 6.3 2.7 4.1 4.1 9.1 5.3 2.5 9.3 7.0 0.4 4.2 98-12p 3.4 3.0 2.9 1.8 3.9 2.0 3.5 3.0 3.7 2.6 6.8 0.8 3.9 4.2 3.6 Note: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 29 Arizona County Travel-Generated Employment, 1998-2012p ($ Millions) Annual Percent Chg. 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p Apache 1,550 1,630 1,530 1,460 1,520 1,610 1,590 1,580 1,700 1,640 1,620 1,590 1,590 Cochise 3,690 3,930 3,800 3,760 3,930 4,030 4,110 4,380 4,340 4,120 4,070 3,820 3,660 Coconino 11,220 11,180 10,240 10,530 10,740 10,950 10,750 11,110 11,540 10,920 10,590 10,710 10,870 Gila 3,150 3,120 3,220 3,220 3,040 3,130 3,160 3,120 3,000 2,940 2,910 3,050 2,990 Graham/Greenlee 40 40 40 40 40 50 60 70 70 50 60 70 80 La Paz 1,500 1,420 1,350 1,350 1,290 1,350 1,200 1,220 1,230 1,230 1,190 1,230 1,230 Maricopa 84,020 87,700 77,850 80,880 83,780 87,470 89,530 90,130 87,910 82,290 81,630 83,330 86,000 Mohave 5,500 5,680 5,950 6,060 6,020 6,250 7,070 6,500 6,380 6,170 6,090 5,870 5,950 Navajo 3,430 3,940 3,420 3,280 3,140 3,200 3,360 3,300 3,570 3,190 3,250 3,330 3,440 Pima 21,230 23,030 22,900 22,890 24,140 25,200 25,100 23,870 22,220 21,820 21,450 21,580 22,340 Pinal 3,160 3,130 3,780 3,880 3,960 4,270 4,680 4,880 5,250 4,930 5,100 5,550 5,590 Santa Cruz 2,430 2,520 2,550 2,470 2,560 2,530 2,400 2,330 2,270 2,230 2,060 1,870 1,960 Yavapai 6,370 7,100 8,120 8,220 7,900 8,060 8,180 8,280 8,460 7,710 7,340 7,670 8,090 Yuma 4,800 4,950 5,590 5,540 5,700 5,840 6,200 6,040 6,110 6,130 6,060 6,540 6,660 Arizona 152,740 160,030 151,110 154,400 158,550 164,810 168,530 168,000 165,190 156,330 154,300 157,070 161,340 Note: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percentages calculated on unrounded numbers. PAGE 30 11-12p -0.1 -4.0 1.5 -1.9 4.1 -0.2 3.2 1.3 3.2 3.5 0.7 4.8 5.5 1.8 2.7 98-12p 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 2.7 -1.4 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.4 4.2 -1.5 1.7 2.4 0.4 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Apache County Travel Impacts, 2002-2012p 2002 2004 2006 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 92.6 91.5 109.1 Other Travel* 6.5 9.4 12.5 Total Direct Spending 99.1 100.9 121.6 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 48.4 43.9 55.6 Private Home 25.2 27.5 31.4 Campground 5.3 5.8 6.5 Vacation Home 10.0 10.4 11.2 Day Travel 3.7 3.8 4.4 Destination Spending 92.6 91.5 109.1 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 20.1 19.0 22.9 Food Service 23.4 23.4 27.5 Food Stores 7.7 8.0 8.6 Local Tran. & Gas 7.7 10.5 15.0 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 8.2 8.0 8.9 Retail Sales 25.4 22.6 26.2 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 92.6 91.5 109.1 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 15.0 14.5 17.0 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 3.6 3.5 4.0 Retail** 4.7 4.5 5.4 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.4 0.5 0.7 Total Direct Earnings 23.7 23.1 27.2 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 1,050 920 1,020 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 170 300 250 Retail** 280 260 280 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 30 40 40 Total Direct Employment 1,530 1,520 1,590 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 3.3 3.1 3.7 State Tax Receipts 4.5 4.4 5.1 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 7.8 7.5 8.7 2008 2010 2011 2012p 132.6 14.4 147.0 106.9 12.8 119.7 110.4 15.9 126.2 110.3 17.0 127.4 36.9 33.7 43.7 12.0 6.2 132.6 49.3 34.1 6.9 12.1 4.6 106.9 47.4 38.0 7.4 12.6 4.9 110.4 46.0 38.8 7.7 13.0 4.9 110.3 25.4 31.4 15.5 27.8 9.9 22.5 0.0 132.6 22.2 28.5 9.3 15.7 8.3 23.1 0.0 106.9 21.3 28.9 9.9 19.5 8.3 22.6 0.0 110.4 20.9 29.1 9.9 20.1 8.2 22.1 0.0 110.3 19.7 4.7 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.8 31.9 21.3 3.9 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 30.3 21.0 3.8 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 30.0 22.7 4.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 31.8 1,010 330 320 0 0 50 1,700 1,100 290 210 0 0 20 1,620 1,090 270 220 0 0 20 1,590 1,100 270 210 0 0 20 1,590 3.9 5.8 9.7 3.6 5.2 8.8 3.6 5.5 9.1 3.6 5.6 9.1 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 31 Cochise County Travel Impacts, 2002-2012p 2002 2004 2006 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 257.5 291.9 314.7 Other Travel* 14.0 19.4 25.3 Total Direct Spending 271.5 311.3 340.0 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 86.8 105.2 124.3 Private Home 44.3 51.0 57.2 Campground 7.0 7.8 8.6 Vacation Home 5.3 5.6 6.1 Day Travel 114.1 122.3 118.5 Destination Spending 257.5 291.9 314.7 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 28.9 34.7 41.6 Food Service 63.4 71.8 77.8 Food Stores 58.0 62.0 57.0 Local Tran. & Gas 20.2 30.2 40.6 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 18.3 20.5 22.0 Retail Sales 68.7 72.8 75.7 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 257.5 291.9 314.7 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 31.0 35.8 39.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 8.5 9.5 10.7 Retail** 18.0 19.5 20.1 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 1.8 2.0 2.3 Total Direct Earnings 59.3 66.8 72.6 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 2,190 2,310 2,390 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 680 670 700 Retail** 840 860 890 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 100 100 120 Total Direct Employment 3,800 3,930 4,110 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 8.9 9.9 10.9 State Tax Receipts 11.1 12.4 13.2 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 20.0 22.3 24.0 2008 2010 2011 2012p 345.5 29.2 374.7 339.6 25.4 365.0 329.8 31.0 360.7 315.6 32.8 348.4 144.1 62.9 9.6 6.6 122.3 345.5 143.5 64.6 9.1 6.6 115.7 339.6 133.2 68.8 9.9 6.9 110.9 329.8 111.0 68.7 10.2 7.1 118.7 315.6 52.1 84.1 59.5 50.8 22.8 76.1 0.0 345.5 52.1 87.7 55.8 44.9 22.9 76.3 0.0 339.6 47.8 83.9 52.8 52.6 21.9 70.8 0.0 329.8 40.0 80.9 57.3 52.5 20.1 64.9 0.0 315.6 48.8 11.6 21.1 0.0 0.0 2.6 84.2 48.7 11.4 18.9 0.0 0.0 1.7 80.6 46.0 10.7 17.6 0.0 0.0 1.7 75.9 45.1 10.8 17.1 0.0 0.0 1.8 74.7 2,540 810 870 0 0 120 4,340 2,460 790 750 0 0 70 4,070 2,280 770 710 0 0 60 3,820 2,210 710 670 0 0 70 3,660 11.9 14.1 26.0 12.2 14.8 27.1 11.7 15.0 26.7 10.7 14.3 25.0 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 32 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Coconino County Travel Impacts, 2002-2012p 2002 2004 2006 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 651.7 730.4 813.2 Other Travel* 14.9 27.8 31.5 Total Direct Spending 666.7 758.2 844.6 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 422.7 477.6 537.9 Private Home 38.8 42.5 52.0 Campground 18.2 20.0 19.8 Vacation Home 25.0 27.0 29.3 Day Travel 147.1 163.2 174.1 Destination Spending 651.7 730.4 813.2 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 185.5 208.1 240.4 Food Service 153.1 171.7 185.3 Food Stores 36.5 41.0 42.0 Local Tran. & Gas 42.1 62.6 83.8 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 119.9 130.1 133.7 Retail Sales 107.5 110.8 113.4 Visitor Air Tran. 7.2 6.1 14.6 Destination Spending 651.7 730.4 813.2 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 116.9 131.1 141.9 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 51.4 55.8 59.9 Retail** 21.1 22.9 25.0 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 3.7 4.1 7.6 Other Travel* 2.1 7.4 5.4 Total Direct Earnings 195.3 221.3 239.8 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 6,390 6,560 6,280 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 2,720 2,940 3,140 Retail** 940 960 1,000 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 80 80 150 Other Travel* 100 200 170 Total Direct Employment 10,240 10,740 10,750 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 18.1 20.5 22.9 State Tax Receipts 27.0 29.9 32.3 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 45.1 50.4 55.2 2008 2010 2011 2012p 902.8 36.7 939.4 902.6 35.1 937.8 956.6 41.5 998.1 999.7 44.9 1,044.6 602.3 53.5 24.7 31.6 190.6 902.8 600.9 57.5 23.6 31.6 189.0 902.6 637.6 61.9 25.1 33.1 198.9 956.6 670.3 63.1 26.3 34.0 206.0 999.7 276.7 205.6 48.4 108.6 139.8 116.0 7.7 902.8 273.8 215.2 48.2 95.5 138.2 118.3 13.4 902.6 291.6 221.5 50.8 118.6 140.0 120.5 13.7 956.6 307.9 232.1 52.4 126.3 143.7 123.5 13.7 999.7 174.8 65.8 27.8 0.0 5.8 8.7 282.8 162.1 63.7 24.6 0.0 5.9 5.8 262.1 169.6 63.2 25.4 0.0 6.6 6.5 271.3 181.4 61.4 25.8 0.0 6.4 6.9 281.9 6,930 6,500 6,820 3,170 2,880 2,600 1,090 950 980 0 0 0 120 110 120 230 160 190 11,540 10,590 10,710 7,100 2,470 980 0 120 200 10,870 25.4 35.7 61.1 26.2 37.4 63.6 28.3 41.5 69.8 29.7 43.3 73.0 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 33 Gila County Travel Impacts, 2002-2012p 2002 2004 2006 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 208.4 221.4 250.5 Other Travel* 5.0 7.1 9.4 Total Direct Spending 213.4 228.5 260.0 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 38.5 41.7 55.5 Private Home 28.6 30.9 34.8 Campground 9.4 10.4 11.5 Vacation Home 11.1 11.8 12.7 Day Travel 120.8 126.5 136.0 Destination Spending 208.4 221.4 250.5 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 15.0 16.3 21.0 Food Service 36.3 38.4 43.3 Food Stores 16.7 17.9 18.6 Local Tran. & Gas 14.1 19.8 27.3 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 92.6 96.3 106.0 Retail Sales 33.7 32.7 34.4 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 208.4 221.4 250.5 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 18.2 19.4 22.6 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 27.9 28.8 32.8 Retail** 7.5 7.8 8.7 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.3 0.4 0.5 Total Direct Earnings 53.9 56.4 64.6 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 1,290 1,230 1,280 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 1,550 1,440 1,480 Retail** 360 350 370 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 20 20 30 Total Direct Employment 3,220 3,040 3,160 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 3.7 3.9 4.7 State Tax Receipts 6.6 8.4 10.3 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 10.3 12.3 15.0 2008 2010 2011 2012p 248.6 11.0 259.6 246.1 9.5 255.6 257.0 11.7 268.7 269.9 12.4 282.3 42.6 37.6 12.8 13.6 142.0 248.6 40.8 38.5 12.2 13.3 141.2 246.1 41.1 41.5 13.3 14.0 147.1 257.0 48.4 42.6 13.7 14.3 151.0 269.9 18.0 43.2 20.2 32.6 102.2 32.4 0.0 248.6 17.0 45.4 20.1 28.8 101.7 33.1 0.0 246.1 16.8 46.4 21.2 35.6 103.5 33.5 0.0 257.0 18.9 49.0 21.7 37.9 108.1 34.3 0.0 269.9 23.3 32.8 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 65.7 21.3 30.4 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 60.1 21.7 30.5 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 60.7 23.8 31.6 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 64.1 1,190 1,390 380 0 0 30 3,000 1,060 1,500 330 0 0 20 2,910 1,070 1,620 340 0 0 20 3,050 1,130 1,510 330 0 0 20 2,990 4.4 10.0 14.4 4.5 10.3 14.8 4.7 10.9 15.6 5.0 11.5 16.5 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 34 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Graham & Greenlee Counties Travel Impacts, 2002-2012p 2002 2004 2006 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 35.9 36.7 54.0 Other Travel* 4.0 5.5 7.5 Total Direct Spending 39.9 42.3 61.5 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 14.5 14.1 27.1 Private Home 15.2 16.1 18.9 Campground 1.4 1.6 1.8 Vacation Home 0.6 0.7 0.7 Day Travel 4.2 4.3 5.5 Destination Spending 35.9 36.7 54.0 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 4.9 4.8 9.1 Food Service 10.4 10.6 14.5 Food Stores 3.8 3.9 4.6 Local Tran. & Gas 3.8 5.2 8.2 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 3.4 3.3 4.4 Retail Sales 9.6 8.9 13.3 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 35.9 36.7 54.0 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 5.2 5.2 7.9 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 1.8 1.8 2.4 Retail** 2.0 2.0 2.9 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.2 0.3 0.4 Total Direct Earnings 9.3 9.3 13.6 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 470 440 630 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 230 280 410 Retail** 100 90 130 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 10 20 20 Total Direct Employment 800 830 1,190 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 0.9 0.9 1.4 State Tax Receipts 2.0 2.0 2.7 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 2.9 2.9 4.1 2008 2010 2011 2012p 57.7 9.3 67.0 53.1 8.0 61.1 59.0 10.0 69.1 65.8 10.8 76.6 27.1 21.7 2.0 0.8 6.0 57.7 22.2 22.3 1.9 0.8 5.9 53.1 24.8 24.8 2.0 0.9 6.5 59.0 30.7 25.3 2.1 0.9 6.9 65.8 9.9 15.4 5.2 10.3 4.4 12.5 0.0 57.7 8.0 15.4 5.2 9.0 4.1 11.5 0.0 53.1 8.7 16.5 5.6 11.5 4.3 12.3 0.0 59.0 11.0 18.0 5.8 12.5 4.6 13.8 0.0 65.8 9.2 2.5 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 15.2 7.3 2.1 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 12.1 7.9 2.1 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 13.0 8.4 2.2 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 13.8 640 430 120 0 0 30 1,220 480 330 100 0 0 20 930 490 320 110 0 0 20 940 520 320 110 0 0 20 980 1.5 2.8 4.2 1.4 2.7 4.1 1.5 3.1 4.6 1.8 3.4 5.1 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 35 La Paz County Travel Impacts, 2002-2012p 2002 2004 2006 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 115.4 119.6 123.0 Other Travel* 1.9 2.8 3.7 Total Direct Spending 117.3 122.4 126.7 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 13.8 12.5 8.4 Private Home 10.7 11.7 13.2 Campground 24.3 26.2 28.6 Vacation Home 14.1 14.8 15.8 Day Travel 52.5 54.5 57.0 Destination Spending 115.4 119.6 123.0 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 10.7 11.1 10.4 Food Service 20.4 20.9 21.4 Food Stores 10.5 11.1 11.2 Local Tran. & Gas 8.5 11.7 15.3 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 46.0 46.5 46.6 Retail Sales 19.3 18.3 18.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 115.4 119.6 123.0 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 8.8 9.0 8.9 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 12.7 12.8 13.4 Retail** 4.2 4.3 4.5 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.1 0.1 0.2 Total Direct Earnings 25.7 26.2 27.0 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 600 560 520 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 540 520 470 Retail** 200 200 200 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 10 10 10 Total Direct Employment 1,350 1,290 1,200 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 2.4 2.5 2.5 State Tax Receipts 3.7 4.4 4.8 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 6.1 6.9 7.3 2008 2010 2011 2012p 129.2 4.2 133.4 124.3 3.6 127.9 133.4 4.5 137.9 141.8 4.7 146.5 6.6 14.5 31.2 16.7 60.1 129.2 4.4 14.2 30.5 16.2 59.0 124.3 5.3 16.4 32.3 17.0 62.4 133.4 10.6 16.3 33.2 17.4 64.3 141.8 10.1 22.5 12.4 18.9 47.7 17.6 0.0 129.2 8.7 22.9 12.1 16.3 46.7 17.6 0.0 124.3 9.1 24.2 13.0 20.6 48.2 18.2 0.0 133.4 10.8 25.9 13.3 22.1 50.7 18.9 0.0 141.8 9.8 14.0 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 28.9 10.0 14.3 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 28.7 10.7 14.5 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 29.7 10.5 15.3 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 30.5 520 480 210 0 0 10 1,230 530 470 180 0 0 10 1,190 550 480 190 0 0 10 1,230 530 500 190 0 0 10 1,230 2.5 4.9 7.5 2.5 5.1 7.6 2.7 5.5 8.2 2.9 5.8 8.7 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 36 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Maricopa County Travel Impacts, 2002-2012p 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 6,033 7,056 8,247 8,034 7,968 8,342 Other Travel* 1,536 1,904 2,412 2,550 2,324 2,570 Total Direct Spending 7,570 8,960 10,659 10,584 10,292 10,912 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 3,304 3,928 4,754 4,451 4,342 4,516 Private Home 1,541 1,803 2,071 2,139 2,209 2,307 Campground 222 213 167 150 107 126 Vacation Home 186 205 231 254 258 268 Day Travel 781 908 1,025 1,041 1,053 1,125 Destination Spending 6,033 7,056 8,247 8,034 7,968 8,342 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 1,157 1,347 1,705 1,630 1,397 1,465 Food Service 1,284 1,501 1,706 1,687 1,811 1,878 Food Stores 208 235 241 252 250 267 Local Tran. & Gas 614 776 960 1,007 989 1,118 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 916 1,035 1,123 1,059 1,075 1,098 Retail Sales 1,069 1,152 1,246 1,141 1,195 1,226 Visitor Air Tran. 785 1,011 1,266 1,257 1,250 1,290 Destination Spending 6,033 7,056 8,247 8,034 7,968 8,342 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 822 961 1,119 1,185 1,141 1,189 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 394 446 506 499 496 496 Retail** 173 191 214 207 193 203 Ground Tran. 76 88 101 95 105 112 Visitor Air Tran. 395 475 565 542 571 623 Other Travel* 572 653 776 770 741 795 Total Direct Earnings 2,431 2,814 3,281 3,298 3,247 3,418 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 36.2 38,870 41,570 41.6 39.6 40.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 13.6 15,700 16,480 16.6 15.3 15.3 Retail** 5.8 6,120 6,460 6.3 5.8 5.8 Ground Tran. 2.5 2,640 2,770 2.6 2.7 2.8 Visitor Air Tran. 7.0 7,420 7,820 7.4 6.7 7.0 Other Travel* 12.8 13,030 14,430 13.4 11.6 11.9 Total Direct Employment 77.9 83,780 89,530 87.9 81.6 83.3 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 242 282 329 313 311 327 State Tax Receipts 258 296 338 329 344 377 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 500 578 667 642 655 703 2012p 8,758 2,775 11,533 4,676 2,368 245 275 1,194 8,758 1,541 1,981 293 1,197 1,134 1,260 1,351 8,758 1,228 551 210 114 623 832 3,558 41.3 16.2 5.8 2.9 7.2 12.5 86.0 338 395 734 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations, resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 37 Mohave County Travel Impacts, 2002-2012p 2002 2004 2006 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 344.0 387.0 468.4 Other Travel* 32.8 34.5 47.4 Total Direct Spending 376.8 421.5 515.8 All Overnight Hotel, Motel 103.1 112.2 145.7 Private Home 101.0 118.2 142.0 Campground 15.6 17.2 19.1 Vacation Home 27.9 31.1 35.7 Day 96.5 108.2 126.0 Destination Spending 344.0 387.0 468.4 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 46.9 55.4 71.9 Food Service 90.4 102.1 121.7 Food Stores 31.2 36.0 40.2 Local Tran. & Gas 30.7 46.5 68.3 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 72.3 78.8 89.3 Retail Sales 65.8 68.3 77.0 Visitor Air Tran. 6.7 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 344.0 387.0 468.4 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 45.4 52.1 63.3 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 32.8 35.7 42.3 Retail** 14.9 16.5 19.9 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 2.5 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 8.3 5.6 7.3 Total Direct Earnings 103.8 110.0 132.8 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 2,940 3,050 3,550 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 2,050 2,120 2,540 Retail** 600 610 710 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 60 0 0 Other Travel* 300 240 270 Total Direct Employment 5,950 6,020 7,070 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 8.0 9.0 10.9 State Tax Receipts 15.2 17.0 20.0 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 23.2 26.0 30.9 2008 2010 2011 2012p 450.5 64.3 514.7 459.8 51.4 511.2 467.9 60.2 528.1 470.8 64.7 535.5 112.4 153.7 21.2 38.3 124.8 450.5 120.9 154.0 20.2 37.5 127.2 459.8 121.8 156.6 21.9 39.3 128.2 467.9 119.5 159.4 22.6 40.3 129.0 470.8 57.8 118.5 42.5 79.5 82.3 69.8 0.0 450.5 56.4 129.4 43.1 72.2 84.8 73.9 0.0 459.8 57.2 127.1 43.6 85.5 82.4 72.0 0.0 467.9 56.6 128.6 43.8 88.4 81.8 71.5 0.0 470.8 62.6 41.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 136.0 61.5 38.8 18.2 0.0 0.0 8.2 126.8 60.9 37.0 17.9 0.0 0.0 8.2 124.1 57.7 45.0 17.6 0.0 0.0 8.9 129.2 3,200 2,030 680 0 0 470 6,380 3,150 1,990 630 0 0 310 6,090 3,040 1,910 620 0 0 310 5,870 2,770 2,250 610 0 0 320 5,950 9.7 18.9 28.6 10.3 20.3 30.6 10.6 21.2 31.8 10.6 21.4 32.0 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 38 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Navajo County Travel Impacts, 2002-2012p 2002 2004 2006 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 220.2 217.1 260.0 Other Travel* 10.8 15.2 20.1 Total Direct Spending 231.0 232.3 280.0 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 114.2 102.7 128.5 Private Home 36.9 40.9 48.1 Campground 13.1 14.2 16.4 Vacation Home 35.4 38.0 41.7 Day Travel 20.6 21.4 25.2 Destination Spending 220.2 217.1 260.0 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 45.8 44.1 52.9 Food Service 53.5 53.2 63.4 Food Stores 15.5 16.3 18.0 Local Tran. & Gas 15.8 21.4 31.4 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 27.7 27.5 30.9 Retail Sales 61.8 54.6 63.4 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 220.2 217.1 260.0 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 35.0 34.1 40.1 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 10.6 10.5 12.3 Retail** 10.3 9.8 11.8 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 1.0 1.2 1.5 Total Direct Earnings 57.0 55.5 65.7 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 2,260 2,050 2,120 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 610 590 670 Retail** 490 430 490 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 60 70 80 Total Direct Employment 3,420 3,140 3,360 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 6.5 6.1 7.3 State Tax Receipts 9.8 9.7 11.4 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 16.2 15.8 18.6 2008 2010 2011 2012p 285.6 22.5 308.1 252.6 19.2 271.8 267.3 23.5 290.8 279.4 24.9 304.4 141.3 53.9 17.2 45.6 27.7 285.6 113.6 51.6 16.6 45.2 25.6 252.6 117.8 57.0 17.8 47.3 27.5 267.3 128.0 58.0 16.5 48.6 28.3 279.4 60.4 69.3 20.2 39.7 32.0 64.0 0.0 285.6 50.2 65.3 19.0 32.2 29.7 56.1 0.0 252.6 51.6 67.6 20.2 40.3 30.3 57.2 0.0 267.3 55.5 70.8 20.5 42.3 30.6 59.7 0.0 279.4 48.6 13.3 12.7 0.0 0.0 1.3 75.8 47.8 12.7 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 71.3 49.3 12.7 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 73.2 53.6 14.8 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.7 79.9 2,320 680 510 0 0 70 3,570 2,240 570 410 0 0 30 3,250 2,330 550 420 0 0 30 3,330 2,370 610 430 0 0 30 3,440 7.9 12.1 20.0 7.0 11.5 18.6 7.4 12.6 20.0 7.9 13.2 21.1 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 39 Pima County Travel Impacts, 2002-2012p 2002 2004 2006 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 1,782 1,987 2,241 Other Travel* 316 375 456 Total Direct Spending 2,098 2,362 2,697 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 808 924 1,074 Private Home 328 375 423 Campground 23 25 56 Vacation Home 36 39 43 Day Travel 587 624 645 Destination Spending 1,782 1,987 2,241 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 308 339 420 Food Service 412 471 526 Food Stores 116 128 134 Local Tran. & Gas 188 236 294 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 159 175 188 Retail Sales 465 469 468 Visitor Air Tran. 134 170 210 Destination Spending 1,782 1,987 2,241 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 251 282 320 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 65 71 80 Retail** 78 81 86 Ground Tran. 24 27 30 Visitor Air Tran. 5 5 10 Other Travel* 56 50 54 Total Direct Earnings 479 517 580 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 12,900 13,790 14,630 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 3,960 4,550 4,550 Retail** 3,050 3,050 3,120 Ground Tran. 800 820 830 Visitor Air Tran. 140 130 220 Other Travel* 2,040 1,800 1,750 Total Direct Employment 22,900 24,140 25,100 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 41.1 45.0 53.9 State Tax Receipts 78.2 86.1 95.0 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 119.4 131.1 148.9 2008 2010 2011 2012p 2,043 506 2,550 2,023 458 2,481 2,074 515 2,588 2,129 536 2,665 903 451 36 47 605 2,043 900 450 29 47 597 2,023 927 467 31 49 599 2,074 947 467 32 51 633 2,129 349 475 132 279 173 411 223 2,043 320 509 129 272 175 414 204 2,023 328 521 132 306 178 404 203 2,074 331 540 137 318 179 422 200 2,129 304 76 80 25 12 59 556 300 76 73 28 11 51 538 307 76 73 29 11 53 548 329 76 75 30 11 57 577 12,740 12,510 12,650 3,860 4,040 4,070 2,880 2,590 2,580 680 710 730 250 210 200 1,800 1,390 1,340 22,220 21,450 21,580 13,250 4,180 2,580 750 200 1,380 22,340 47.3 85.5 132.8 47.0 90.3 137.4 49.3 97.2 146.4 50.1 100.4 150.5 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations, resident air travel, travel arrangement services, and convention and trade shows. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 40 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Pinal County Travel Impacts, 2002-2012p 2002 2004 2006 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 252.2 290.0 368.1 Other Travel* 19.8 30.2 48.8 Total Direct Spending 272.1 320.2 416.9 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 24.7 25.4 33.8 Private Home 102.7 120.9 156.2 Campground 35.4 39.1 43.3 Vacation Home 33.6 39.5 52.4 Day Travel 55.8 65.1 82.4 Destination Spending 252.2 290.0 368.1 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 26.5 29.1 36.7 Food Service 76.5 87.9 111.7 Food Stores 24.7 28.4 33.3 Local Tran. & Gas 22.5 33.9 51.8 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 41.4 46.1 55.9 Retail Sales 60.7 64.6 78.7 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 252.2 290.0 368.1 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 32.5 37.0 47.2 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 19.3 21.6 27.4 Retail** 11.9 13.3 16.9 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 1.4 1.6 2.6 Total Direct Earnings 65.2 73.4 94.2 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 2,030 2,170 2,500 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 1,150 1,170 1,390 Retail** 520 540 670 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 80 80 120 Total Direct Employment 3,780 3,960 4,680 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 5.7 6.4 7.9 State Tax Receipts 12.0 13.8 17.2 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 17.8 20.2 25.2 2008 2010 2011 2012p 456.2 69.3 525.6 511.2 69.1 580.3 551.9 84.5 636.4 537.1 90.7 627.8 37.1 199.9 48.2 67.4 103.6 456.2 34.6 240.0 46.0 75.0 115.7 511.2 42.2 255.2 49.8 78.5 126.1 551.9 36.7 244.8 51.3 80.6 123.8 537.1 42.3 140.1 42.3 73.7 66.2 91.6 0.0 456.2 40.6 168.1 47.4 72.8 74.8 107.6 0.0 511.2 44.3 176.5 50.5 91.6 77.3 111.7 0.0 551.9 42.8 172.1 49.3 91.9 74.5 106.6 0.0 537.1 62.9 34.1 21.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 121.8 66.7 35.7 21.5 0.0 0.0 2.6 126.4 70.9 36.1 22.6 0.0 0.0 2.5 132.1 72.8 38.6 21.4 0.0 0.0 2.6 135.4 2,990 1,270 820 0 0 180 5,250 2,790 1,400 790 0 0 130 5,100 3,010 1,570 840 0 0 130 5,550 3,020 1,650 790 0 0 130 5,590 9.5 20.7 30.2 11.1 24.7 35.9 12.1 27.1 39.2 11.7 26.7 38.4 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 41 Santa Cruz County Travel Impacts, 2002-2012p 2002 2004 2006 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 284.8 293.7 273.5 Other Travel* 3.9 5.7 8.0 Total Direct Spending 288.7 299.4 281.5 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 26.3 31.0 36.3 Private Home 22.6 25.6 29.0 Campground 0.9 1.0 1.1 Vacation Home 0.9 1.0 1.2 Day Travel 234.0 235.1 206.0 Destination Spending 284.8 293.7 273.5 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 11.3 13.0 15.6 Food Service 36.5 39.3 39.6 Food Stores 100.6 105.1 91.8 Local Tran. & Gas 10.6 15.1 19.1 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 7.6 8.5 9.1 Retail Sales 118.2 112.6 98.5 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Destination Spending 284.8 293.7 273.5 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 16.3 17.8 18.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 3.8 4.2 4.7 Retail** 31.2 31.3 28.1 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Travel* 0.2 0.3 0.5 Total Direct Earnings 51.5 53.6 51.8 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 1,050 1,110 1,070 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 270 260 330 Retail** 1,210 1,160 970 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 10 20 30 Total Direct Employment 2,550 2,560 2,400 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 5.4 5.4 5.2 State Tax Receipts 10.0 10.2 9.6 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 15.4 15.6 14.8 2008 2010 2011 2012p 272.9 9.5 282.4 252.1 8.4 260.6 228.6 10.4 239.0 259.6 11.0 270.6 39.0 33.1 1.3 1.3 198.2 272.9 35.6 34.5 1.2 1.3 179.6 252.1 28.9 36.1 1.3 1.3 161.0 228.6 31.2 37.6 1.4 1.4 188.1 259.6 16.9 41.1 92.9 23.2 9.3 89.5 0.0 272.9 15.4 41.0 83.7 19.7 9.1 83.2 0.0 252.1 12.3 37.2 76.1 21.9 8.1 73.0 0.0 228.6 12.9 41.4 88.5 24.6 8.5 83.6 0.0 259.6 21.2 5.1 27.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 54.1 21.0 4.8 23.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 50.1 18.6 4.2 21.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 44.4 19.1 5.3 23.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 48.6 1,000 340 900 0 0 30 2,270 980 330 730 0 0 20 2,060 880 320 660 0 0 20 1,870 910 310 720 0 0 10 1,960 5.1 9.4 14.5 4.9 9.4 14.3 4.5 8.9 13.4 5.0 10.0 15.0 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 42 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Yavapai County Travel Impacts, 2002-2012p 2002 2004 2006 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 449.8 472.9 562.5 Other Travel* 27.5 37.5 50.1 Total Direct Spending 477.3 510.4 612.7 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 173.5 176.4 233.0 Private Home 49.7 56.9 69.8 Campground 10.0 10.8 5.4 Vacation Home 17.0 19.0 21.9 Day Travel 199.6 209.8 232.4 Destination Spending 449.8 472.9 562.5 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 83.4 85.8 115.0 Food Service 87.0 91.5 108.8 Food Stores 31.7 34.2 36.9 Local Tran. & Gas 29.0 41.0 58.9 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 144.1 147.7 162.6 Retail Sales 74.6 72.4 79.9 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.2 0.5 Destination Spending 449.8 472.9 562.5 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 57.7 59.9 73.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 55.5 56.8 65.5 Retail** 14.8 15.3 17.8 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.0 0.1 0.2 Other Travel* 5.5 6.4 7.8 Total Direct Earnings 133.5 138.6 164.9 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 3,330 3,050 3,280 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 3,840 3,880 3,840 Retail** 650 630 740 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 0 0 0 Other Travel* 310 340 320 Total Direct Employment 8,120 7,900 8,180 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 10.5 10.9 13.6 State Tax Receipts 17.3 19.5 23.7 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 27.8 30.4 37.3 2008 2010 2011 2012p 594.6 56.1 650.6 562.9 49.7 612.6 603.7 57.4 661.0 637.6 61.6 699.2 234.4 77.0 13.0 24.2 246.0 594.6 208.7 77.3 12.6 23.8 240.5 562.9 225.6 85.4 13.3 25.0 254.4 603.7 248.9 87.2 14.0 25.6 261.9 637.6 121.3 113.7 41.5 73.6 166.3 77.8 0.4 594.6 104.4 115.3 40.5 63.2 161.3 77.3 0.8 562.9 111.4 121.2 43.4 79.9 166.8 80.0 1.0 603.7 124.1 127.6 44.5 85.1 172.3 82.1 1.8 637.6 83.8 68.9 19.1 0.0 0.3 8.0 180.1 73.7 65.4 16.6 0.0 0.3 6.3 162.2 78.0 66.3 17.4 0.0 0.3 5.6 167.6 85.8 69.6 17.6 0.0 0.4 5.9 179.3 3,530 3,850 780 0 10 300 8,460 3,040 3,400 650 0 10 230 7,340 3,200 3,590 680 0 10 190 7,670 3,470 3,730 680 0 10 190 8,090 14.0 24.6 38.7 13.4 24.6 37.9 14.5 27.0 41.5 15.6 28.5 44.1 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 43 Yuma County Travel Impacts, 2002-2012p 2002 2004 2006 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 441.0 487.4 541.8 Other Travel* 17.4 30.7 43.6 Total Direct Spending 458.4 518.0 585.4 Visitor Spending by Type of Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel 80.2 101.0 134.5 Private Home 49.0 58.8 68.4 Campground 45.6 51.6 64.5 Vacation Home 32.2 35.1 39.5 Day Travel 233.9 240.8 234.9 Destination Spending 441.0 487.4 541.8 Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 38.8 46.9 63.2 Food Service 77.0 85.2 97.4 Food Stores 66.8 71.5 68.8 Local Tran. & Gas 25.9 38.1 54.7 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 87.7 97.3 115.8 Retail Sales 143.0 139.2 132.4 Visitor Air Tran. 1.8 9.2 9.6 Destination Spending 441.0 487.4 541.8 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 36.9 42.1 50.4 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 34.8 38.3 47.2 Retail** 30.1 30.8 31.0 Ground Tran. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Visitor Air Tran. 0.4 2.9 0.2 Other Travel* 1.3 3.5 2.6 Total Direct Earnings 103.4 117.6 131.5 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 2,220 2,380 2,650 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 2,110 2,040 2,280 Retail** 1,190 1,120 1,150 Ground Tran. 0 0 0 Visitor Air Tran. 10 60 10 Other Travel* 60 100 110 Total Direct Employment 5,590 5,700 6,200 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 10.8 11.7 13.1 State Tax Receipts 16.9 19.4 22.1 Total Direct Gov't Revenue 27.7 31.0 35.3 2008 2010 2011 2012p 569.9 53.7 623.6 553.1 49.5 602.6 592.4 57.9 650.3 595.4 61.4 656.8 140.2 78.6 72.5 43.7 234.9 569.9 131.9 79.1 74.9 44.3 222.9 553.1 155.8 89.2 80.3 46.4 220.8 592.4 151.4 86.3 74.5 47.6 235.7 595.4 66.8 103.8 72.9 68.4 121.1 124.4 12.4 569.9 61.0 107.6 69.1 60.3 122.6 120.2 12.3 553.1 68.9 115.3 69.1 77.5 133.0 116.4 12.3 592.4 65.8 115.8 73.2 78.1 127.3 123.3 12.0 595.4 58.0 50.7 31.5 0.0 0.3 3.3 143.7 62.1 50.0 27.7 0.0 0.7 2.7 143.3 68.2 53.3 27.4 0.0 0.9 2.9 152.6 69.2 51.8 28.3 0.0 0.8 3.0 153.2 2,790 2,060 1,110 0 10 130 6,110 2,840 2,140 970 0 10 90 6,060 3,150 2,330 950 0 20 90 6,540 3,060 2,550 940 0 20 100 6,660 13.3 22.7 36.0 13.2 23.6 36.8 14.3 26.0 40.3 14.3 26.2 40.5 Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes ground transportation to other Arizona destinations and travel arrangement services. **Retail includes gasoline. PAGE 44 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES APPENDICES APPENDIX A 2012 TRAVEL IMPACT ESTIMATES APPENDIX B KEY TERMS AND DEFINITIONS APPENDIX C REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACT MODEL APPENDIX D TRAVEL INDUSTRY ACCOUNTS APPENDIX E ARIZONA EARNINGS AND EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY SECTOR APPENDIX F INDUSTRY GROUPS DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 45 APPENDIX A 2012 TRAVEL IMPACT ESTIMATES This appendix provides a brief overview of the methodology, terminology and limitations of the travel impact and visitor volume estimates. REVISIONS TO 2012 REPORT There are three revisions of note in this year’s report:  All spending and related impacts were revised to reflect new survey data and a new methodology.  “Other travel” now includes convention and trade show impacts (for Maricopa and Pima county only) and a portion of ground transportation expenditures, as well as resident air travel and travel arrangement services.  There were revisions relating to estimates of federal travel-generated tax revenue for air travel. DIRECT IMPACTS The estimates of the direct impacts associated with traveler spending in Arizona were produced using the Regional Travel Impact Model (RTIM) developed by Dean Runyan Associates. The input data used to detail the economic impacts of the Arizona travel industry were gathered from various local, state and federal sources. Travel impacts consist of estimates of travel spending and the employment, earnings, and state and local taxes generated by this spending. These estimates are also broken out by type of traveler accommodation and by the type of business in which the expenditures occur. GROUND TRANSPORTATION ESTIMATES The methodology for estimating and allocation ground transportation expenditures has been revised in this report. County level estimates of destination or visitor spending include now only a portion of the ground transportation expenditures for travel that occur in the county. The remaining portion is included in “other travel” as it represents transportation costs for travel to another destination within Arizona. State level estimates of visitor spending include all of these expenditures for ground transportation. SECONDARY (INDIRECT AND INDUCED) IMPACTS Direct impacts are reported for all counties within Arizona. Secondary employment and earnings impacts over and above direct impacts are reported at the state level only for the year 2012. These indirect and induced impacts are generated from the direct impacts produced by the RTIM, discussed above, and an input-output model PAGE 46 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES of the Arizona economy prepared by the Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. Indirect impacts represent the purchases of goods and services from other firms by businesses that directly receive expenditures from travelers. Hotels, for example, purchase maintenance services from independent contractors. Induced impacts represent the purchase of goods and services by employees whose earnings are in part derived from travel expenditures. The sum of the direct, indirect and induced impacts equals the total impact of all spending by visitors in the state. The “multiplier” refers to the ratio of the total impacts to the direct impacts for employment or earnings. A description of the methodology used to estimate secondary impacts can be found in the Appendix. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES Preliminary estimates for 2012 were prepared at the state and county level. These estimates take advantage of the most current available data. However, because fullyear data was not available in all cases, these estimates are subject to subsequent revision as additional information relating to travel and its economic impact in 2012 becomes available. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT An estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Arizona travel industry based on the RTIM direct travel impacts is also provided in this report. The GDP of an industry is equal to gross output (sales or receipts) minus intermediate inputs (the goods and services purchased from other industries). GDP is always less than output or sales because GDP measures only the “value added” of an industry and does not include the cost of the inputs that are also necessary to produce a good or service. GDP is a useful concept because it permits comparisons of the economic contributions of different industries. The relationship between spending and gross domestic product is illustrated in the figure below. Examples of inputs are the food or accounting services that restaurants purchase from suppliers. “Goods resold” are the commodities that retail establishments purchase from manufacturers or wholesale trade businesses and resell with a markup. These inputs or goods are not counted as the GDP of the restaurant or retail industry because their value was created in other industries (agriculture, accounting, manufacturing). DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 47 Relationship Between Spending and Gross Domestic Product Inputs/Goods Resold Operating Surplus Indirect Taxes Labor Income Spending GDP It is for this reason that “travel spending” – as measured from surveys of visitors – is not the best measure of the travel industry’s real economic contribution. This is because some visitor spending is actually counted as the GDP of other industries (e.g., agriculture, accounting, manufacturing). Furthermore, these other industries may or may not be located within the geographic area of interest. If the farm were located within the region of interest, then the GDP of the local farm would be included as an indirect or secondary effect. If not (e.g., a manufacturing firm in another state or country), then that portion of GDP is not counted. The preceding graph also shows the three main components of GDP. For most industries, labor income (essentially equivalent to earnings in this report) is the primary component of GDP. This is true of the travel industry. A second component is the tax payments that businesses make to government, such as sales, excise and property taxes. In the case of excise taxes, businesses are essentially a collection agency for the government. The final component, operating surplus, represents the income and payments (e.g., dividends, interest) to other stakeholders of the firm. The concept of GDP also illustrates that with small geographic units of analysis (e.g., counties), earnings, employment, and tax revenues are the best measures of the economic value of the travel industry to the local economy. Small area measures of GDP are less reliable and much of the operating surplus may leak out of the local economy anyway. Indirect effects are also generally less in smaller economies. PAGE 48 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES COMPARISON WITH OTHER EXPORT-ORIENTED INDUSTRIES Export-oriented industries are those industries that primarily market their products and services to other regions, states or nations. Agriculture, extractive industries, and manufacturing are the best examples of goods producing export-oriented industries. Many professional services (e.g., engineering, architecture, law) are also traded in export markets. The travel industry is also an export-oriented industry because goods and services are sold to visitors, rather than residents. The travel industry injects money into the local economy, as do the exports of other industries. Exports are not necessarily more important than locally traded goods and services. However, diverse export-oriented industries in any economy are a source of strength – in part because they generate income that contributes to the development of other local services and amenities. Such industries characterize the “comparative advantage” of the local economy within larger regional, national and global markets. For the purposes of this report, we have defined five major export-oriented industries in Arizona.  Aerospace. This industry comprises establishments engaged in aerospace product and parts manufacturing.  Microelectronics. This industry includes establishments that manufacture computers, communications equipment and similar products and components that utilize integrated circuits. This is the largest manufacturing subsector (NAICS 334).  Food. The food group encompasses parts of two major industry categories: agriculture, and food manufacturing or processing.  Mining. This industry is comprised primarily of copper mining companies.  Travel. A portion of the transportation, retail, leisure, and hospitality industries as estimated in this report. Comparisons with these industries are more meaningful for the travel industry than comparisons with non-export oriented industries (e.g., health care, retail trade, government) where industry growth is largely a function of population and demographic factors. See Appendix C for a list of Arizona industries. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 49 INTERPRETATION OF IMPACT ESTIMATES Users of this report should be aware of several issues regarding the interpretation of the impact estimates contained herein:  The estimates contained in this report are based on the most current data available and supersede all previous estimates of travel impacts.  The estimates in this report are expressed in current dollars unless otherwise noted.  The employment estimates in this report are estimates of the total number of full and part-time jobs directly generated by travel spending, rather than the number of individuals employed. Both payroll and self-employment are included in these estimates. Caution should therefore be used in comparing these estimates with other employment data series.  In general, estimates of small geographic areas (e.g., rural counties) are less reliable than estimates for regions or metropolitan counties. Trend analysis and comparisons of counties with relatively low levels of travel related economic activity should therefore be interpreted cautiously.  The estimates of travel impacts published in this report will necessarily differ somewhat from estimates generated from different models, methodologies and data sources. Nonetheless, it should be emphasized that all credible estimates of direct travel impacts at the state level, including those of Dean Runyan Associates, are of similar magnitude. PAGE 50 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES APPENDIX B KEY TERMS AND DEFINITIONS Commodity: A classification of a product or service, such as lodging or food service. An establishment or industry may produce more than one commodity. Direct Impacts: Employment, earnings and tax receipts directly generated by travel spending, as distinguished from secondary and total impacts. Earnings: Earnings include wage and salary disbursements, other earned income or benefits, and proprietor income. Only the earnings attributable to travel expenditures are included. Employment: Industry employment (jobs) associated with travel-generated earnings. Includes both full-time and part-time positions, and salaried or self-employed individuals. Employment is reported as an average for a time period, typically annual. (Unless otherwise noted, the employment estimates refer to establishment or industry employment at place of work, not the employment status or residence of the individual.) Federal Taxes: Federal taxes include the motor fuel excise tax, airline ticket taxes, and personal income and payroll taxes. Industry: A classification of business or government establishments based on their primary technological process. (See NAICS Appendix table.) Local Taxes (counties only): Lodging, sales and auto rental taxes imposed by cities, counties and other regional tax jurisdictions in Arizona. Passenger Facility Charges attributable to visitors (a fee imposed on airline tickets) are included in counties with airports. Property taxes are not included. Local and State Taxes (state): All local and state taxes reported for counties plus property taxes attributable to travel industry businesses and employees and sales and income taxes attributable to travel industry employees. Other spending: Other spending includes spending by residents on ground and air transportation for travel to other destinations, spending on travel arrangement services, and convention/ trade shows. Private Home: Unpaid overnight accommodations of friends and relatives. Receipts: Travel expenditures less the sales and excise taxes paid by the consumer. State Taxes (counties only): Lodging, motor fuel, and business and personal income taxes imposed by the state of Arizona. Total Impacts: The sum of Direct and Secondary impacts. Travel spending: The sum of visitor and other spending related to travel. Visitor spending: All spending on goods & services by visitors at the destination. Also referred to as destination spending. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 51 APPENDIX C REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACT MODEL PRIMARY DATA SOURCES Room Demand, Visitor Surveys, Population, Inventory/Use of Campsites & Second Homes, Visitor air arrivals Visitor Volume (Travel Party Days by Type of Accommodation) ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF TRAVEL Accommodation Sales, Visitor Surveys, Airfares Note: Receipts equals Spending less POS Taxes Ratio of Earnings to Receipts for relevant Industry Average Annual Earnings per job for relevant industry PAGE 52 Visitor Spending Point of Sale Taxes (Type of Accommodation and Type of Commodity) (Sales and Excise Taxes associated with Visitor Spending) Business Receipts (not reported) Business Taxes (Taxes on business income or receipts) Earnings (By Industry) Employment (By Industry) Personal Taxes (Local, state and federal income and payroll taxes) Note: Most estimates of taxes are based on implicit tax rates applied to visitor spending, business receipts, and employee earnings. Lodging tax receipts reflect actual tax collections. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES APPENDIX D TRAVEL INDUSTRY ACCOUNTS: A COMPARISON OF THE REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACT MODEL AND TRAVEL & TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNTS An economic account is a method for displaying inter-related information about a set of economic activities. A travel industry account is a method to report different types of related information about the purchase of goods and services by visitors. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which now provides annual and quarterly estimates of travel and tourism at the national level, describes a Travel and Tourism Satellite Account (TTSA) as “present(ing) a rearrangement of information from the National Income and Product Accounts, from the industry accounts, and from other sources so that travel and tourism activities can be analyzed more completely than is possible in the structure of the traditional national economic accounts.”1 Similarly, the RTIM has been developed by Dean Runyan Associates to estimate travel spending, earnings, employment, and tax receipts at the state, county, and regional levels. These initial findings can, in turn, be used as input data for deriving estimates of other economic measures, such as value-added and indirect effects. This appendix provides an overview of the Regional Travel Impact Model (RTIM) and travel and tourism satellite accounts (TTSAs). Although there is no single or absolute form of a TTSA, the one developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will be the basis of the analysis here. The definitions, framework, and estimating methods used for the U.S. BEA TTSA follow, as closely as is practicable, the guidelines for similar travel satellite accounts that were developed by the World Tourism Organization (WTO) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The primary focus is on the direct impacts of visitor spending. Visitors are defined as persons that stay overnight away from home, or travel more than fifty miles oneway on a non-routine trip. Only the expenditures related to specific trips are counted as visitor spending. Other travel related expenditures such as the consumption of durable goods (e.g., recreational vehicles or sporting equipment) or the purchase of vacation homes are not considered. While such a definition of the travel industry (i.e., the trip related expenditures of visitors) is conservative, it is also in keeping with the notion of the travel industry as being an export-oriented industry for specific local communities. That is, visitors are important to regions because they inject money into the local economy. This focus on the export-oriented nature of the travel industry for local communities becomes blurred if the industry is defined so as to include non-trip related expenditures. 1 Peter D. Kuhbach, Mark A. Planting, and Erich H. Strassner, “U.S. Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts for 1998-2003,” Survey of Current Business 84 (September 2004): 43-59. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 53 PRIMARY CONCEPTS, CATEGORIES & DATA REQUIREMENTS There are three primary types of information that are measured and/or estimated in a travel industry account. The first is a measure of the travel industry in terms of both the characteristics of the business firms that sell travel goods and services and the characteristics of consumers that purchase travel industry goods and services. The second is a measure of the demand segments that consume travel industry goods and services. For example, the distinction between business and leisure travel is a measure of demand segments. The third is a measure of the components of economic output associated with the travel industry. The employee earnings generated by visitor spending is one such component. Travel-generated tax receipts are another. These three categories of information represent different aspects of the accounting ledger – they represent different ways of viewing or analyzing the travel industry. The bulk of this paper will discuss these three types of information in terms of their conceptual foundations, the data requirements, and some of the more salient issues that users of this information should be aware of. There will also be some discussion of indirect and induced effects in that these effects can be reasonably estimated from the direct travel industry accounts. These secondary (versus direct) effects describe the relationship of the travel industry to other sectors of the larger economy. The intent of this discussion will be to provide a general overview of the process of constructing travel industry accounts and the underlying similarity between the RTIM and a TTSA. More technical issues are generally placed in footnotes. TRAVEL INDUSTRY Defining the travel industry is probably the most critical and data intensive effort involved in developing a travel industry account. It is an exercise in matching supply (sellers of goods and services) with demand (the travelers that purchase those particular goods and services). It is complicated by the fact that no single industrial classification scheme provides a valid measure of the travel industry.2 There are only three significant industrial classifications (Accommodations [NAICS 721], Scheduled Passenger Air Transportation [NAICS 481111] and Travel Arrangement and Reservation Services [NAICS 5615]) that primarily sell travel industry goods and services.3 Firms in other industries (retail, recreation, transportation) provide goods and services to both travelers and other types of consumers. Because of this, most satellite accounts, as well as the RTIM, incorporate at least some information about the expenditures of visitors in order to define the supply of 2 The North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) is the current standard in the United States. 3 Even these industries are not purely travel. For example, the accommodations industry provides services to local residents (food service and meeting rooms). Passenger airlines also ship cargo on the same planes that carry passengers. Fortunately, it is usually possible to make adjustments for these non-travel components through the use of additional data. PAGE 54 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES visitor industry firms. For example, if there is an estimate of visitor-days and an estimate of how much the average visitor spends on food services per day, then an estimate of visitor spending on food services can be calculated. In most cases, this will be only a fraction of all food service sales in that residents are a larger market for most restaurants.4 The industry sectors that are usually matched to visitor spending in this way are: accommodations (NAICS 721), food service (722), arts, entertainment and recreation (71), and retail trade (44-45). A portion of transportation business is also part of the travel industry for obvious reasons. In the case of the transportation sector, the definition and measurement of the travel industry component is more complicated because most transportation spending by visitors involves travel to and from the destination, rather than travel at or within the destination market. This is not an issue if the geographic scope of the travel industry market includes the origin and destination of travel. National travel industry accounts thus include all domestic passenger air transportation in the travel industry. The issue is more complicated at the state or regional level, however. Suppose, for example, that the focus of a travel industry account is the state of Arizona. How should the purchase of a round trip airline ticket by a Chicago resident traveling to Phoenix be treated in that only some of the economic impact of this spending will occur in Arizona? A reasonable approach would be to allocate only a portion of this spending (and related payroll, taxes, etc.) to Arizona and ignore the remainder for the purpose of creating a travel industry account for Arizona. However, if this procedure were followed for every state, the sum of the state accounts would be less than the national travel account. The state accounts would be additive if outbound air travel from each state were included. However, this is methodologically inconsistent with the construction of a national account, which does not include outbound travel as a component of domestic tourism demand. The approach used in the RTIM is to make a distinction between the visitor industry, that includes only visitor demand, and the travel industry, which includes visitor demand and that portion of outbound travel that can be attributed to the resident economy. For example, the passenger air transportation employment in Arizona can be divided between three groups of travelers: inbound, outbound, and pass-through. Only that employment attributable to inbound travel is part of the Arizona visitor industry. Employment attributable to outbound and pass-through travelers is included with the larger travel industry.5 4 The proportion can vary enormously among regions and localities, however. In many popular visitor destinations, the primary market for food service will be visitors. It should also be noted that even with reliable visitor survey data, there is still the issue of how to translate spending on food service commodities to the supply of food service by industry. As indicated in the footnote above, food service is also supplied by the accommodation industry. 5 The same issue arises with travel agencies and reservation services (NAICS 5615). Most of these services are probably related to outbound travel and are treated as such in the RTIM. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 55 The following two tables display the specific industries that are included in the travel industry for the BEA’s national TTSA and the RTIM. Although not identical, the industries are equivalent with only a few exceptions.6 Bureau of Economic Analysis Tourism Industries Distribution of Travel-Generated Compensation in United States, 2007 Accommodation & Food Services Traveler accommodations Food services and drinking places 38.1% 21.5% 16.6% Transportation Air transportation Rail transportation Water transportation Interurban bus transportation Interurban charter bus transportation Urban transit systems & other tran. Taxi service Automotive equipment rental & leasing Automotive repair services Parking lots and garages Toll highways 23.3% 15.4% 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 2.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% Recreation Scenic and sightseeing transportation Motion pictures and performing arts Spectator sports Participant sports Gambling All other recreation and entertainment 11.2% 0.4% 1.1% 2.3% 2.4% 3.0% 2.0% Retail & Nondurable Goods Production Petroleum refineries Industries producing nondurable PCE commodities, excluding petroleum refineries Wholesale trade & tran. services Gasoline service stations Retail trade services, excluding gasoline service stations 16.2% 0.6% 4.4% 4.2% 1.3% 5.8% Travel Arrangement 7.3% All other industries 2.2% Total Tourism Compensation 100.0% Source: Adapted from Eric S. Griffith and Steven L. Zemanek, “U.S. Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts for 2005-2008,” Survey of Current Business (June 2009): 37, table 6. 6 The major exception is that the BEA includes the production of consumer non-durables that are sold through retail outlets. This is not a major component and would be even less so at the level of the state. PAGE 56 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES RTIM Travel Impact Industries Matched to NAICS Travel Impact Industry NAICS Industry (code) Accommodation & Food Services Accommodation (721) Food Services and Drinking Places (722) Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Performing Arts, Spectator Sports (711) Museums (712) Amusement, Gambling (713) Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation (487) Retail Food & Beverage Stores (445) Gasoline Stations (447) Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (448) Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores (451) General Merchandise Stores (452) Miscellaneous Store Retailers (453) Ground Transportation Interurban and rural bus transportation (4852) Taxi and Limousine Service (4853) Charter Bus Industry (4855) Passenger Car Rental (532111) Parking Lots and Garages (812930) Air Transportation Scheduled Air Passenger Transportation (481111) Support Activities for Air Transportation (4881) Administrative/Support Services Travel Arrangement and Reservation Services (5615) Convention and Trade Show Organizers (56192) Source: Dean Runyan Associates DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 57 DEMAND SEGMENTS The distinction between inbound and outbound travel has already been discussed in the previous section and in terms of the concepts of the visitor industry and the travel industry. Three other types of demand segments that are related exclusively to the visitor industry will be discussed here. The first two demand categories are reported by the BEA in their national TTSA. They are: leisure versus business travel, and resident versus non-resident travel. The third demand category is typically reported in the RTIM: type of traveler accommodation. These three demand categories will be discussed in turn. The distinction between leisure versus business travel is useful for several reasons. Economists like to distinguish between personal consumption expenditures on the one hand and business expenditures on the other. Indeed, this distinction is central for the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). Those in the travel industry are more likely to be interested in this distinction because leisure travelers represent a more “marketable” segment because their travel choices are less determined by economic and business factors. Futhermore, business and leisure travelers tend to have different spending profiles. The availability of this information in either a state or regional TTSA or RTIM is essentially dependent on the availability of survey data (as it is at the national level). It should be noted, however, that such estimates are considerably less reliable for smaller geographic areas because of the limitations of survey data. Even at the state level, year-to-year changes in the composition of this demand segment should be interpreted in conjunction with other data. The distinction between resident versus non-resident travel is fundamental to a national TTSA because it mirrors the distinction between the domestic economy and international transactions. Non-resident travel in the United States is considered an export in the official international transaction accounts.7 The distinction is obviously also important because it is based on different political, legal, and currency regimes – factors that in themselves influence travel behavior. At the level of the state or region, the distinction between resident and nonresident travel is less important, although it is often reported.8 There are at least two reasons why this distinction is less useful at state and regional levels. First, there is considerably less of an economic rationale for distinguishing resident and non-resident travel at the level of the state, or any other political jurisdiction within the United States, than there is at the national level. States do not maintain interstate trade balance sheets that chart the flow of goods and services across state boundaries. From an economic point of view, the administration of the tax system is the primary, if only, reason for this distinction. In the case of travel and tourism, 7 Conversely, the spending of U.S. visitors in other countries is treated as an import in the international transaction accounts. 8 The issues discussed with regard to the reliability of survey data for leisure versus business travel also applies to this category PAGE 58 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES the evaluation of the tax impacts of resident versus nonresident travel might also be important.9 Second, travel is behaviorally defined by length of distance from home (usually at least 50 miles one-way), trip purpose (non-routine), and/or the use of an overnight accommodation away from home. Rarely is domestic travel defined by virtue of crossing a geographic boundary.10 The operators of tourist attractions in local communities are generally less interested in the origin of visitors than in the revenue that they generate for their businesses. In terms of the economic impacts at the local level, the distinction between in-state residents, out-of-state residents and international visitors may not be relevant other than for the purpose of marketing. However, other geographic characteristics of the visitor (e.g., distance traveled, the specific area of origin) are generally more useful measures of the visitor market than whether the visitor is a resident or nonresident. Finally, the distinction among different types of traveler accommodations is generally reported in the RTIM. Typically, these categories are:  Visitors who stay in hotels, motels, B&Bs., and similar lodging facilities  Visitors who stay at campsites  Visitors who stay in the private homes of friends or relatives  Visitors who stay in vacation or second homes  Visitors who do not stay in overnight accommodations on their trip away from home (day visitors). These distinctions can be useful because estimates of economic impacts are often used for different purposes. The total of all accommodation types, of course, is an estimate of the total magnitude of the visitor industry. Visitors who stay in commercial lodging such as hotels and motels are most likely to have the greatest economic impact on a person-day basis. These visitors are also more likely to be influenced by marketing efforts. In urban areas, a large proportion will represent business travel. In other words, the type of accommodation category can be used in conjunction with other types of data to analyze the market characteristics of visitors. 9 Nonresident visitors who pay taxes in their destination state represent an unambiguous gain for the state. This effect is less clear for resident travelers within the state. 10 In essence, state level travel impact estimates really represent an aggregation of smaller geographic units, such as counties or regions. Populous states with large landmasses (e.g., California or Texas) will have a higher proportion of resident travel than small states (e.g., Rhode Island or Delaware). DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 59 COMPONENTS OF INDUSTRY OUTPUT Because both the RTIM and the TTSA are empirically linked to NAICS industry accounts, it is possible to provide estimates of different components of economic output. The major economic components most often estimated are:11  Travel spending (Gross Output)  Value-added (Gross Product)  Earnings (labor income)  Indirect business taxes (sales, excise, property taxes & fees). The relationship of these components is shown below. As indicated, the valueadded of a particular industry (the bar on the right) is equal to gross output (travel spending) minus the intermediate inputs used by travel industry businesses to produce the good or service. Restaurants, for example, prepare and serve the food products that are purchased from suppliers. Airlines purchase or lease airplanes from other firms. These intermediate inputs are not counted as part of the valueadded of the travel industry. They are counted as value-added in other industries (e.g., agriculture, aerospace manufacturing). Components of Industry Output Inputs/Goods Resold Operating Surplus Indirect Taxes Labor Income Output (Spending) Value-Added The distinction between gross output and value-added is probably even more important at the state or regional level. This is because the intermediate inputs that are purchased from other industries are even more likely to be purchased from businesses located in different regions or states. For example, the economic impact 11 There are some small differences between the BEA TTSA and the RTIM in what these components include. The BEA allocates proprietor income to Operating Surplus, the RTIM allocates it to Labor Income. The RTIM does not have an estimate of property taxes in indirect taxes. Overall, property taxes on businesses are a relatively small proportion of indirect taxes. PAGE 60 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES of air passenger travel in the state of Hawaii should not include the purchase of airplanes manufactured in other parts of the world. Travel industry value-added is a more meaningful measure of the true economic impact of visitor spending in Hawaii because a portion of the economic impact of visitor spending in the state will actually occur elsewhere.12 Value-added can also be viewed in terms of the distribution or payout of industry receipts, exclusive of those paid to other firms for intermediate inputs. Some of the receipts are distributed to labor as wages, benefits, and proprietor income. Some receipts are paid to government as indirect taxes. These taxes are called “indirect” because most of them are actually paid by consumers in the form of sales or excise taxes.13 The remainder leaves gross operating surplus. Out of gross operating surplus various payments are made in the form of dividends, interest, and other payments, or retained by the firm. The sum of these three broad categories of payments is equal to travel industry value-added. To summarize: Value-added = Spending less intermediate goods & services, or Value-added = Labor Income plus indirect business taxes plus gross operating surplus. The RTIM is similar to the TTSA in that it also provides estimates of these components of economic output. Travel spending, earnings, and tax impacts are generally provided at the state or regional level. Value-added is generally reported at the state-level only (sometimes referred to as Travel Industry Gross State Product). At the level of the state, travel industry value-added or GSP is an important measure – more economically meaningful than travel spending.14 For smaller geographic areas, however, the rationale for reporting value-added is less clear. First, there are real data limitations and data costs in deriving these estimates. Second, the most important components of value added for the travel industry are earnings and tax receipts. Because the travel industry is relatively labor intensive and because a large proportion of travel industry goods and services are subject to excise and sales taxes, these two components of value-added (labor income and indirect taxes) are relatively high for the travel industry. The local effects of gross operating surplus are generally less important and certainly much more difficult to assess than are earnings and tax impacts. The relevance of earnings and tax receipts is also in keeping the export-oriented emphasis of the travel industry: earnings and tax receipts are more likely to stay in the local economy than is operating surplus. 12 It should also be noted the value of the intermediate inputs used by travel industry firms will not necessarily disappear if the travel industry stops buying them. Aerospace firms will shift their production to other users (e.g., military). Agriculture will seek new markets for their products. 13 Other taxes included here are property taxes, business franchise taxes, and other fees. Income taxes are not included, because they are paid out of operating surplus. 14 It is also possible to compare different industries with respect to their value-added. It is more difficult and less useful to compare industries on the basis of sales. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 61 INDIRECT, INDUCED AND SECONDARY EFFECTS To this point, the discussion of travel industry accounts has referred only to the direct output components. That is, the ripple effects of the re-spending of travel industry receipts throughout the larger economy have not been analyzed. The structure of both the TTSA and the RTIM permit such analysis.  Indirect effects refer to the intermediate inputs used to produce the final product or service, providing that those inputs are themselves produced within the designated geographic area.  Induced effects refer to the purchase of goods and services by employees that are attributable to direct and indirect impacts. These induced impacts are derived from economic data that describe the purchasing patterns of households. For example, employees of all the designated export-oriented industries will spend their income on food, household durables, health care, and so on.  The sum of indirect and induced impacts is sometimes referred to as the secondary effect. These secondary impacts may be as great or greater than the direct impact alone.  The ratio of the total effects (direct plus either indirect, induced, or secondary) to the direct effects is the multiplier. The BEA reports the indirect components of economic output. This is equivalent to domestic travel spending less the goods and services imported from abroad to meet domestic demand. For travel, these imports would include souvenirs manufactured in China and petroleum extracted in Saudi Arabia. The indirect output multiplier for 2002 was 1.76. The ratio of domestic travel spending to travel industry value-added was 1.88. The difference reflects the intermediate inputs for travel imported from abroad. At the state level, these indirect output multipliers are typically lower because relatively more of the intermediate inputs are purchased from outside of the state. At the county or metropolitan level, the multipliers are generally even lower for the same reason. Furthermore, the estimates are usually less reliable because of the data limitations of the regional input-output model used to estimate the indirect effects. The BEA does not report induced effects – the effect of household spending of the direct and indirect labor income. Typically, these induced effects will be larger than the indirect effects at the state or regional level, in part because they are based on both the direct and indirect components.15 As with indirect effects, the induced effects will also tend to be lower for smaller economic areas and the reliability of the estimates will be less. 15 The induced effects can be estimated with the Implan model maintained by the Minnesota Implan Group. PAGE 62 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Secondary effects should be interpreted cautiously. These effects describe the relationship of economic transactions at a point in time. These relationships will not necessarily remain constant with a change in direct economic output. This is because all economic resources have alternative uses. Because of this, it is often difficult to determine the effect of an increase or decrease in visitor spending on the larger economic system over time. THE REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACT MODEL AND TRAVEL & TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNTS COMPARED This appendix has provided an overview of Dean Runyan Associates RTIM and the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ domestic TTSA. These travel industry accounts are similar in terms of how they define the travel industry and the measures of the industry that are reported. The differences stem largely from their different levels of analysis – the BEA provides estimates at the national level only, while the RTIM’s are typically constructed on a state or regional level. Because of this geographic focus, the RTIM provides a distinction between the visitor industry and the travel industry. The RTIM also provides measures of all of the components of economic output and secondary effects at the state or large region level. At smaller units of analysis, however, the emphasis is on earnings and tax receipts generated by travel spending as these are the most reliable and meaningful measures of the economic impact of travel at the local level. DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 63 APPENDIX E Arizona Earnings and Employment by Industry Sector, 2011 Earnings Industry Sector Primarily Export-Oriented Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and related Mining Manufacturing **Travel Primarily Non Export-Oriented Construction Utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Real estate and rental and leasing Management of companies and enterprises Administrative and waste services Other services, except public administration Government and government enterprises Mixed Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Professional and technical services Educational services Health care and social assistance Leisure and Hospitality Arizona Total** ($Billion) Percent Employment of Total (Thousand) 16.1 1.6 1.2 13.3 5.1 10.1% 1.0% 0.7% 8.4% Percent of Total 3.2% 223 42 20 161 157 6.9% 1.3% 0.6% 5.0% 4.9% 81.1 8.8 1.6 8.3 12.6 4.2 2.2 9.0 5.7 28.7 51.1% 5.5% 1.0% 5.2% 7.9% 2.7% 1.4% 5.7% 3.6% 18.1% 1,724 159 12 109 356 196 30 258 163 440 53.4% 4.9% 0.4% 3.4% 11.0% 6.1% 0.9% 8.0% 5.1% 13.6% 61.7 5.0 2.9 10.7 12.8 2.7 19.9 7.7 158.9 38.8% 3.1% 1.8% 6.7% 8.1% 1.7% 12.5% 4.9% 100.0% 1,280 92 47 203 209 70 349 310 3,228 39.7% 2.8% 1.5% 6.3% 6.5% 2.2% 10.8% 9.6% 100.0% **Travel is not included in the sub and grand totals because it is also represented in other sectors (primarily leisure and hospitality, transporation, and retail trade). PAGE 64 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES APPENDIX F Industry Groups Accomm. & Food Serv. Eating & Drinking Hotels and Lodging Places Agric. & Food Proc. Agricultural- Forestry- Fishery Services Animal and Marine Fats and Oils Blended and Prepared Flour Bottled and Canned Soft Drinks & Water Bread- Cake- and Related Products Canned and Cured Sea Foods Canned Fruits and Vegetables Canned Specialties Cattle Feedlots Cereal Preparations Cheese- Natural and Processed Chewing and Smoking Tobacco Chewing Gum Chocolate and Cocoa Products Cigarettes Cigars Commercial Fishing Condensed and Evaporated Milk Confectionery Products Cookies and Crackers Cotton Cottonseed Oil Mills Creamery Butter Dairy Farm Products Dehydrated Food Products Distilled Liquor- Except Brandy Dog- Cat- and Other Pet Food Feed Grains Flavoring Extracts and Syrups- N.E.C. Flour and Other Grain Mill Products Fluid Milk Food Grains Food Preparations- N.E.C Forest Products Forestry Products Frozen Fruits- Juices and Vegetables Frozen Specialties Fruits Grass Seeds DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 65 Agric. & Food Proc. Greenhouse and Nursery Products Hay and Pasture Hogs- Pigs and Swine Ice Cream and Frozen Desserts Landscape and Horticultural Services Macaroni and Spaghetti Malt Malt Beverages Manufactured Ice Meat Packing Plants Miscellaneous Crops Miscellaneous Livestock Oil Bearing Crops Other Meat Animal Products Pickles- Sauces- and Salad Dressings Potato Chips & Similar Snacks Poultry and Eggs Poultry Processing Prepared Feeds- N.E.C Prepared Fresh Or Frozen Fish Or Seafood Ranch Fed Cattle Range Fed Cattle Rice Milling Roasted Coffee Salted and Roasted Nuts & Seeds Sausages and Other Prepared Meats Sheep- Lambs and Goats Shortening and Cooking Oils Soybean Oil Mills Sugar Sugar Crops Tobacco Tobacco Stemming and Redrying Tree Nuts Vegetable Oil Mills- N.E.C Vegetables Wet Corn Milling Wines- Brandy- and Brandy Spirits Arts, Entertain., Rec. Amusement and Recreation Services- N.E.C. Bowling Alleys and Pool Halls Commercial Sports Except Racing Membership Sports and Recreation Clubs Motion Pictures Other Nonprofit Organizations Racing and Track Operation Theatrical Producers- Bands Etc. Water Transportation PAGE 66 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES Construction Maintenance and Repair Oil and Gas Wells Maintenance and Repair Other Facilities Maintenance and Repair- Residential New Farm Structures New Government Facilities New Highways and Streets New Industrial and Commercial Buildings New Mineral Extraction Facilities New Residential Structures New Utility Structures Finance, Real Estate Banking Credit Agencies Insurance Agents and Brokers Insurance Carriers Owner-occupied Dwellings Real Estate Security and Commodity Brokers Government Commodity Credit Corporation Federal Electric Utilities Federal Government - Military Federal Government - Non-Military Local Government Passenger Transit Other Federal Government Enterprises Other State and Local Govt Enterprises State & Local Government - Education State & Local Government - Non-Education State and Local Electric Utilities U.S. Postal Service Misc. Manf. Includes all utilities, mining and manfacturing industries not elsewhere classified Misc. Services Advertising Beauty and Barber Shops Computer and Data Processing Services Detective and Protective Services Domestic Services Electrical Repair Service Equipment Rental and Leasing Funeral Service and Crematories Laundry- Cleaning and Shoe Repair Miscellaneous Personal Services Miscellaneous Repair Shops Other Business Services Personnel Supply Services Photofinishing- Commercial Photography Portrait and Photographic Studios Services To Buildings Watch- Clock- Jewelry and Furniture Repair DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 67 Prof. Services Accounting- Auditing and Bookkeeping Business Associations Child Day Care Services Colleges- Universities- Schools Doctors and Dentists Elementary and Secondary Schools Engineering- Architectural Services Hospitals Job Trainings & Related Services Labor and Civic Organizations Legal Services Management and Consulting Services Nursing and Protective Care Other Educational Services Other Medical and Health Services Religious Organizations Research- Development & Testing Services Residential Care Social Services- N.E.C. Retail Trade Apparel & Accessory Stores Building Materials & Gardening Food Stores Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Retail Wholesale Trade Transportation Air Transportation Arrangement Of Passenger Transportation Automobile Parking and Car Wash Automobile Rental and Leasing Automobile Repair and Services Automotive Dealers & Service Stations Local- Interurban Passenger Transit Motor Freight Transport and Warehousing Railroads and Related Services Transportation Services PAGE 68 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES