ARIZONA 2014 Housing At-a-Glance JAN BREWER MICHAEL TRAILOR GOVERNOR DIRECTOR September 2014 Dear Community Partner, The Arizona Department of Housing is pleased to present you with the 2014 Arizona Housing Market At-a-Glance. Arizona continues to recover from the worst recession in our lifetime and the housing recovery that has historically led Arizona’s economic comeback is stalled. The effects of the Great Recession linger on. Arizona’s unemployment rate has declined to approximately 7 percent but that doesn’t address the thousands of Arizonans who are significantly under employed compared to 2006. Additionally 20 percent of Arizona homeowners are still burdened with negative equity. Our At-a-Glance housing affordability chart graphically demonstrates that Arizona’s retail workers, waitpersons and firefighters continue to struggle to afford decent safe housing whether for sale or for rent in most Arizona locations. Likewise, police officers and teachers can only afford to rent in several Arizona locations. If not for affordable housing programs such as the Low Income Housing Tax Credit program these hard working Arizona residents most likely would be living in substandard housing. Thanks to the efforts of Arizona’s affordable housing developers and federal funding for low income housing many hard working Arizonan’s have a decent place to call home and an opportunity to improve their circumstances. Sincerely, Michael Trailor Director 1110 WEST WASHINGTON • SUITE 310 • PHOENIX, AZ 85007 • 602-771-1000 • FAX 602-771-1002 TTY 602-771-1001 • WEBSITE www.azhousing.gov Home of the Arizona Housing Finance Authority 2014 Arizona’s Housing Market . . . a glance. We in Arizona know firsthand just how important housing issues are to our economy, our job market, and our communities. As one of the hardest hit states, we felt the full force of the nationwide housing crisis and economic recession. However, today home values are on the rise, foreclosures are back to normal levels, our distressed inventory has decreased, and permitting is picking up which means more jobs and more people moving to Arizona. Despite these various improvements, nearly one in every five Arizona homeowners is still underwater and stagnant wage growth has impacted home sales in the state. The analyses and tables in this document are based on data available for early 2014 or for 2013 on housing, income, population, employment, and wages by occupation and by industry. To enable equitable comparison and consistency in this report, we have compared communities across the state on affordability reflected in the median home price or fair market rent in each area. Median price refers to the middle of the price range. The information compiled for this report also reveals that median home prices in Arizona’s rural communities range from a relatively low price of $76,600 in Douglas to a high price of $361,732 in the Sedona area. The most expensive among all Arizona rural and urban communities continues to be the Town of Paradise Valley, with a median home sales price of $1,334,467 million. In general, home prices are higher in the urban areas and in communities that attract large numbers of seasonal and recreational tourists. Median home prices have significantly been picking up from the recession; however, they continue to remain below their all time high levels seen in 2006. Affordability has improved; however, while lower prices can improve affordability, they can adversely impact many owners and potential sellers who have seen their limited equity erode. The median housing price for existing homes at the state level and for most of the communities that are included in this study, reached their peak in either 2006 or in 2007. While slower than hoped, the latest trends indicate that home values are improving. From 2010 to 2013, the median price of existing homes increased by 35.8% at the state level. 1 2014 General Trends in Arizona’s Housing Market . . . a glance. Arizona Home Prices vs. Median Income Home prices are once again on the rise, approaching their peak levels; however, median household income has remained stagnant over the last decade. • From 2005 to 2013, the median sales price of homes in Arizona increased only by 3.1 percent. 2 • Median home values are still down 5.1 percent from the height of the housing market in 2006. • From 2011 to 2013 median home values have increased by 40 percent. _________________________________________________________________________________________ For census data by Arizona counties on median home values and median household income for the years 2000, 2010 and 2012 see Table 5 in the Appendices. $ 300,000 $ 250,000 $240,000 $260,000 $ 100,000 $177,900 $214,200 $182,200 $169,000 $146,000 $140,600 2001 2002 $54,900 $53,300 $51,900 $47,800 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 $58,800 $61,600 $61,500 $58,500 2007 $60,800 $60,400 $54,400 $53,300 $52,700 $49,700 2000 $209,900 $156,500 $143,900 $ 50,000 $0 $247,500 $240,000 $ 200,000 $ 150,000 $246,000 2011 2012 Statewide Median Home Price Statewide Median Family Income Source: U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, Monthly Interest Rate Survey, Housing Price Index 2013 2014 General Trends in Arizona’s Housing Market . . . a glance. Arizona Home Prices vs. Other States Based on the House Price Index (HPI) by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), housing price appreciation in Arizona was ranked number four nationally for the first quarter of 2014. In 2009, Arizona’s housing appreciation rate was ranked as one of the worst in the nation. This turnaround is a clear indication of a significant improvement in Arizona’s housing market since the height of the recession. 3 STATE ANNUAL PRICE INCREASE OR DECREASE RANKING Nevada 20.96% 1 District of Columbia 19.78% 2 California 15.78% 3 Arizona 14.72% 4 Florida 10.65% 5 Georgia 10.23% 6 Oregon 9.71% 7 Colorado 9.34% 8 Michigan 8.77% 9 Hawaii 8.45% 10 Texas 8.19% 11 North Dakota 7.90% 12 Wyoming 7.23% 13 Utah 7.22% 14 South Dakota 6.96% 15 U.S. Average 6.60% – Data Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), First Quarter, 2014. 2014 General Trends in Arizona’s Housing Market . . . a glance. Median Home Prices - 2013 Median home prices in Arizona rural communites range from a low price of $76,600 in Douglas to a high price of $361,732 in the Sedona area. For cities and towns in Maricopa County, the lowest median price of $97,598 was reported for Sun City, and the highest median price of $1,334,367 for Paradise Valley. While the first two bar charts below show the 2013 median home prices for selected rural communities, the third bar chart is exclusively for jurisdictions in Maricopa County. In general, home prices are much higher in urban communities and those that attract tourists, or have a relatively higher percentage of seasonal, recreational, or occasional use homes. High-Price Housing Areas e fre re Ca $ 166,691 $ 168,942 $ 169,397 $ 170,263 $ 183,339 $ 192,247 $ 192,620 $ 217,512 $ 233,583 $ 249,327 $ 255,517 $ 264,032 $ 309,740 $ 361,732 $ 538,057 $ 600,000 $ 500,000 $ 400,000 $ 300,000 $ 200,000 $ 100,000 $0 a x y y y p tt ta rg on rde gstaff son arana oeni on Cit eto alle alle bu Vis sco ny Ve Pay Sed M Pin icken tt V avasu ierra Pre Oro V ld Ca Ph Fla ue o q c S s H W Go Tan Pre Lake Low-Price Housing Areas $ 76,600 $ 79,900 $ 92,500 $ 96,732 $ 97,598 $ 107,746 $ 112,479 $ 113,740 $ 114,213 $ 114,450 $ 80,000 $ 114,500 $ 116,679 $ 120,537 $ 100,000 $ 130,000 $ 120,000 $ 124,000 $ 140,000 $ 60,000 ake fl ow Sn ms llia Wi r be He El M ge ira n rs an de hts rto an eig ingm me a Gr lH K s So e x a C Dre be am Ch be Glo ity ico lidge n C Rio R o Co Su y Elo las ug Do ls le ek Hil da Cre tts ain ve Sco ount Ca F Source: Zillow rt be Gil ler nd a Ch ria o Pe ix pe ise ear en dy rpr Tem Pho Su o Go sa Me $ 116,679 a le ge ale op da ira ric on El M Ma Av nd Gle $ 139,572 $ 100,000 $ 152,260 $ 164,688 $ 168,228 $ 169,683 $ 170,263 $ 190,906 $ 200,586 $ 229,774 $ 309,983 $ 368,686 $ 200,000 $ 383,538 $ 309,740 $ 300,000 $ 201,708 Major Cities in Metro Phoenix $ 400,000 $ 237,129 $ 361,732 4 2014 Workforce Housing Affordability . . . a glance. Police Officers, Teachers, Nurses and Firefighters The following table shows the ability of a police officer to own a median price home in selected communities. Similar details for other occupations such as firefighter, teacher, retail worker, and waiter/waitress are presented in Table 1 in the Appendices. • One Income Earner per Household: A police officer would be able to afford buying a house in nine of the 13 communities in Arizona, assuming he/she is the only income earner in the household. Just four years ago, only five out of the 13 were affordable. • Two Income Earners per Household: A police officer, with the financial help of another income earner in the household, would be able to afford buying a house in 13 out of the 13 following jurisdictions. One Income Earner Per Household Two Income Earners Per Household Hourly Wage Needed to Buy a Median Price House Median Hourly Wage of a Police Officer Affordability Status Hourly Wage of a Police Officer and Another Income Earner* Affordability Status Sedona $44.21 $27.39 Not Affordable $46.56 Affordable Flagstaff $32.27 $24.86 Not Affordable $42.26 Affordable Pinetop-Lakeside $26.58 $20.82 Not Affordable $35.39 Affordable Payson $23.50 $20.79 Not Affordable $35.34 Affordable Phoenix $20.81 $31.37 Affordable $53.33 Affordable Sierra Vista $20.37 $22.37 Affordable $38.03 Affordable Tucson $18.08 $26.44 Affordable $44.95 Affordable Yuma $17.05 $24.07 Affordable $39.12 Affordable Casa Grande $13.96 $26.64 Affordable $45.29 Affordable Kingman $13.75 $24.07 Affordable $40.92 Affordable Rio Rico $11.82 $22.06 Affordable $37.50 Affordable Douglas $9.36 $22.37 Affordable $38.03 Affordable State Average $22.10 $27.00 Affordable $45.90 Affordable Selected Areas * Assuming that the hourly wage or income of the second income earner in the household is 70 percent of the police officer’s income. Source: Zillow; Elliott D. Pollack & Co. 5 2014 Workforce Housing Affordability . . . a glance. Renting a Two Bedroom Apartment in Selected Counties Rental households comprise more than one-third of the total occupied homes in Arizona according to Census 2010 (34 percent) and American Community Survey 2008-2012 (34.5 percent). The following graph shows the amount a household must earn to afford a two bedroom rental unit at the area’s Fair Market Rent, based on the generally accepted affordability standards of paying no more than 30 percent of one’s income for housing costs. The median hourly wage used in this analysis is that of Retail Sales Workers in the corresponding country. Similar details for other selected occupations are presented in Table 1 in the Appendices. 6 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Coconino Maricopa Mohave La Paz Apache State Average $ 15.00 $ 9.58 $ 14.79 $ 9.60 $ 14.02 $ 10.18 $ 13.69 $ 9.96 $ 13.06 $ 10.52 $ 13.02 $ 9.15 $ 13.02 $ 9.20 Graham Greenlee $ 15.75 $ 10.46 Navajo Santa Cruz $ 16.85 $ 9.92 Gila Cochise $ 17.79 $ 10.28 Yavapai Yuma $ 17.79 $ 9.73 Pinal Pima $ 20.50 $ 9.70 $ 10.22 $ 8.56 $ 9.95 Hourly Wage Needed to Rent Median Hourly Wage Paid $ 12.50 $ 12.04 $ 12.04 $ 9.92 Source: Zillow; Elliott D. Pollack & Company; HUD Fair Market Rent, FY 2012 & FY 2013 $ 17.11 Population and Employment Growth 2006 – 2013 The economic recession and the housing crisis took its toll on Arizona effecting both employment and population growth within the state. From 2008 to 2010, statewide employment decreased by 293,300 jobs. While the state’s unemployment rate still trails the national average, the latest numbers do show that the Arizona job market is recovering. Additionally, the number of people moving to the state is also starting to pick up. Most of the economic recovery, in terms of employment and population has occurred in the urban areas of the state. Statewide employment has increased by 129,100 jobs since 2010. Of the total increase, 122,400 jobs, 94.8 percent were attributed to employment growth in the urban areas. The remaining 6,700 jobs (5.2 percent), during that span went to rural areas. During the 2006-2013 period, population of the state increased by 464,645 people. Over two-thirds (68.3 percent of 317,516 persons) became residents of urban areas. The remaining 31.7 percent (147,129 persons) chose to live in one of the 13 rural counties of Arizona. 7,000,000 POPULATION 6,000,000 6,116,409 6,274,981 6,368,649 6,389,081 6,401,569 6,438,178 6,498,569 6,581,054 4,730,671 4,792,861 4,805,410 4,805,226 4,829,451 4,875,085 4,940,905 4,623,389 1,493,020 1,544,310 1,575,788 1,583,671 1,596,343 1,608,727 1,623,484 1,640,149 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 2006 3,000,000 2007 2,639,300 2,679,400 EMPLOYMENT 2,500,000 2,000,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2,622,500 2,432,600 2,386,100 2,412,100 2012 2013 2,463,500 2,515,200 2,162,900 2,191,500 2,135,400 2,034,300 1,994,000 2,019,600 2,065,400 2,116,400 476,400 487,900 487,100 398,300 392,100 392,500 398,100 398,800 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 100,000 2006 2007 Arizona Population 2008 2009 2010 Urban Population 2011 2012 2013 Rural Population “Source: Office of Employment & Population Statistics, State Demographer’s Office; U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics“ 7 Appendices Table 1: Housing Affordability for Home Buyers and Renters for Common Occupations in Selected Arizona Communities 2012 8 Hourly Median Wage City/Town County Bullhead City Casa Grande Chambers Coolidge Douglas Eloy Flagstaff Florence Globe Kingman Lake Havasu City Lakeside Mesa Parker Phoenix Pine Pinetop Prescott Rio Rico Safford Sedona Show Low Sierra Vista Snowflake Somerton Tucson Williams Yuma Mohave Pinal Apache Pinal Cochise Pinal Coconino Pinal Gila Mohave Mohave Navajo Maricopa La Paz Maricopa Gila Navajo Yavapai Santa Cruz Graham Yavapai/Coconino Navajo Cochise Navajo Yuma Pima Coconino Yuma Median Home Price* $121,902 $82,775 $165,800 $75,000 $68,823 $72,761 $243,896 $109,135 $137,692 $101,054 $148,508 $194,800 $145,615 $99,793 $145,569 $180,000 $199,260 $236,717 $90,548 $124,765 $323,454 $158,599 $167,731 $107,400 $76,174 $133,881 $120,000 $129,479 Hourly Wage Needed to Buy $14.90 $10.12 $20.26 $9.17 $8.41 $8.89 $29.81 $13.34 $16.83 $12.35 $18.15 $23.81 $17.80 $12.20 $17.79 $22.00 $24.35 $28.93 $11.07 $15.25 $39.53 $19.38 $20.50 $13.13 $9.31 $16.36 $14.67 $15.82 2 BDRM APT Monthly Rent** $768.00 $870.00 $614.00 $870.00 $704.00 $870.00 $887.00 $870.00 $750.00 $768.00 $768.00 $691.00 $870.00 $678.00 $870.00 $750.00 $691.00 $798.00 $666.00 $613.00 $798.00 $691.00 $704.00 $691.00 $732.00 $860.00 $887.00 $732.00 ASSUMPTIONS Down payment 5.0% Interest rate 4.5% Loan term in years 30 Annual property tax 1.00% Annual home insurance premium 0.35% Annual PMI premium 0.50% % of income devoted to mortgage payment 30% Source: Zillow; Elliott D. Pollack & Co. Hourly Wage Needed to Rent $14.77 $16.73 $11.81 $16.73 $13.54 $16.73 $17.06 $16.73 $14.42 $14.77 $14.77 $13.29 $16.73 $13.04 $16.73 $14.42 $13.29 $15.35 $12.81 $11.79 $15.35 $13.29 $13.54 $13.29 $14.08 $16.54 $17.06 $14.08 Police Officer $23.37 $26.59 $20.09 $26.59 $21.75 $26.59 $24.16 $26.59 $21.17 $23.37 $23.37 $21.25 $31.10 $21.93 $31.10 $21.17 $21.25 $26.77 $21.42 $25.99 $26.77 $21.25 $21.75 $21.25 $23.15 $26.25 $24.16 $23.15 Teacher $16.27 $18.22 $16.98 $18.22 $19.16 $18.22 $19.42 $18.22 $17.02 $16.27 $16.27 $17.15 $19.27 $18.26 $19.27 $17.02 $17.15 $16.68 $18.48 $18.51 $16.68 $17.15 $19.16 $17.15 $16.97 $17.57 $19.42 $16.97 Retail Worker Nurse $10.43 $11.00 $10.28 $11.00 $9.46 $11.00 $9.52 $11.00 $10.44 $10.43 $10.43 $10.72 $9.77 $9.14 $9.77 $10.44 $10.72 $10.28 $9.33 $10.33 $10.28 $10.72 $9.46 $10.72 $9.34 $9.72 $9.52 $9.34 $31.63 $35.89 $31.73 $35.89 $31.66 $35.89 $35.45 $35.89 $31.31 $31.63 $31.63 $33.04 $35.06 $26.77 $35.06 $31.31 $33.04 $35.66 $31.37 $27.83 $35.66 $33.04 $31.66 $33.04 $33.99 $33.88 $35.45 $33.99 Firefighter $14.11 $16.03 $19.70 $16.03 $15.49 $16.03 $21.11 $16.03 $12.95 $14.11 $14.11 $13.87 $22.17 $8.98 $22.17 $12.95 $13.87 $17.43 $17.36 $9.26 $17.43 $13.87 $15.49 $13.87 $19.27 $18.21 $21.11 $19.27 Waitperson $8.54 $8.80 $8.60 $8.80 $8.67 $8.80 $8.88 $8.80 $8.60 $8.54 $8.54 $8.63 $8.75 $8.58 $8.75 $8.60 $8.63 $8.89 $9.22 $8.53 $8.89 $8.63 $8.67 $8.63 $8.58 $8.77 $8.88 $8.58 Can afford to buy Can afford to buy or rent Cannot afford to buy or rent Can afford to only rent Total of All Occupations $16.45 $14.85 $18.25 $14.85 $17.60 $14.85 $28.61 $14.85 $19.11 $16.45 $16.45 $16.88 $20.43 $18.93 $20.43 $19.11 $16.88 $22.06 $15.74 $17.02 $22.06 $16.88 $17.60 $16.88 $14.83 $18.90 $28.61 $14.83 2013 Hourly Median Wage City/Town County Bullhead City Casa Grande Chambers Coolidge Douglas Eloy Flagstaff Florence Globe Kingman Lake Havasu City Lakeside Mesa Parker Phoenix Pine Pinetop Prescott Rio Rico Safford Sedona Show Low Sierra Vista Snowflake Somerton Tucson Williams Yuma Mohave Pinal Apache Pinal Cochise Pinal Coconino Pinal Gila Mohave Mohave Navajo Maricopa La Paz Maricopa Gila Navajo Yavapai Santa Cruz Graham Yavapai/Coconino Navajo Cochise Navajo Yuma Pima Coconino Yuma Median Home Price* $141,071 $114,213 $114,500 $92,500 $76,600 $79,900 $264,032 $132,105 $107,746 $112,479 $168,942 $142,272 $168,228 $147,000 $170,263 $182,391 $217,512 $255,517 $96,732 $130,769 $361,732 $167,488 $166,691 $130,000 $114,450 $147,942 $124,000 $139,471 Hourly Wage Needed to Buy $17.24 $13.96 $13.99 $11.30 $9.36 $9.76 $32.27 $16.15 $13.17 $13.75 $20.65 $17.39 $20.56 $17.97 $20.81 $22.29 $26.58 $31.23 $11.82 $15.98 $44.21 $20.47 $20.37 $15.89 $13.99 $18.08 $15.15 $17.05 2 BDRM APT Monthly Rent $769.00 $925.00 $626.00 $925.00 $712.00 $925.00 $1,066.00 $925.00 $729.00 $769.00 $769.00 $679.00 $925.00 $677.00 $925.00 $729.00 $679.00 $819.00 $677.00 $650.00 $819.00 $679.00 $712.00 $679.00 $780.00 $876.00 $1,066.00 $780.00 ASSUMPTIONS Down payment 5.0% Interest rate 4.5% Loan term in years 30 Annual property tax 1.00% Annual home insurance premium 0.35% Annual PMI premium 0.50% % of income devoted to mortgage payment 30% Source: Zillow; Elliott D. Pollack & Co. Hourly Wage Needed to Rent $14.79 $17.79 $12.04 $17.79 $13.69 $17.79 $20.50 $17.79 $14.02 $14.79 $14.79 $13.06 $17.79 $13.02 $17.79 $14.02 $13.06 $15.75 $13.02 $12.50 $15.75 $13.06 $13.69 $13.06 $15.00 $16.85 $20.50 $15.00 Police Officer $24.07 $26.64 $20.69 $26.64 $22.37 $26.64 $24.86 $26.64 $20.79 $24.07 $24.07 $20.82 $31.37 $22.38 $31.37 $20.79 $20.82 $27.39 $22.06 $25.18 $27.39 $20.82 $22.37 $20.82 $23.01 $26.44 $24.86 $23.01 Teacher $16.49 $18.13 $17.56 $18.13 $18.25 $18.13 $18.64 $18.13 $17.31 $16.49 $16.49 $16.83 $19.23 $18.16 $19.23 $17.31 $16.83 $17.57 $18.35 $18.22 $17.57 $16.83 $18.25 $16.83 $16.83 $17.39 $18.64 $16.83 Retail Worker $9.60 $10.28 $9.95 $10.28 $9.69 $10.28 $9.70 $10.28 $10.18 $9.60 $9.60 $10.52 $9.73 $9.20 $9.73 $10.18 $10.52 $10.46 $9.15 $10.22 $10.46 $10.52 $9.69 $10.52 $9.58 $9.92 $9.70 $9.58 Nurse $31.12 $34.79 $32.23 $34.79 $28.51 $34.79 $36.51 $34.79 $31.55 $31.12 $31.12 $33.70 $34.93 $27.57 $34.93 $31.55 $33.70 $35.85 $32.31 $28.66 $35.85 $33.70 $28.51 $33.70 $34.82 $31.91 $36.51 $34.82 Firefighter Waitperson $14.44 $16.43 $13.78 $16.43 $17.02 $16.43 $21.13 $16.43 $19.14 $14.44 $14.44 $13.95 $22.56 $9.05 $22.56 $19.14 $13.95 $14.47 $17.88 $9.54 $17.47 $13.95 $17.02 $13.95 $21.76 $17.99 $21.13 $21.76 Can afford to buy Can afford to buy or rent Cannot afford to buy or rent Can afford to only rent $8.69 $8.77 $8.55 $8.77 $8.78 $8.77 $9.05 $8.77 $8.62 $8.69 $8.69 $8.63 $8.82 $8.68 $8.82 $8.62 $8.63 $8.87 $8.82 $8.79 $8.87 $8.63 $8.78 $8.63 $8.69 $8.75 $9.05 $8.69 Total of All Occupations $17.99 $17.39 $16.24 $17.39 $17.08 $17.39 $31.74 $17.39 $20.44 $17.99 $17.99 $18.85 $23.54 $13.12 $23.54 $20.44 $18.85 $24.42 $15.73 $16.59 $24.42 $18.85 $17.08 $18.85 $16.32 $20.62 $31.74 $16.32 Appendices Table 2: Employment Growth and Housing Affordability by Industry - Arizona Can Afford to Buy Median Priced House Can Afford to Rent 2-BDRM Apartment Employment 2006 Employment 2013 9,900 13,300 3,400 26% $45,178 $21.72 NO YES Construction 240,300 122,900 -117,400 -96% $47,526 $22.85 YES YES Manufacturing 185,700 155,200 -30,500 -20% $69,060 $33.20 YES YES Wholesale Trade 105,700 97,500 -8,200 -8% $67,088 $32.25 YES YES Retail Trade 322,100 299,400 -22,700 -8% $29,229 $14.05 NO NO Transportation & Warehousing 84,300 84,000 -300 0% $47,162 $22.67 YES YES Information (Publishing, motion pictures and videos, radio and TV stations, and telecommunications) 43,400 41,500 -1,900 -5% $61,379 $29.51 YES YES 133,200 137,900 4,700 3% $67,351 $32.38 YES YES 51,900 47,200 -4,700 -10% $45,229 $21.74 NO YES Professional & Business Services (Legal services, management services, computer services, accounting services, engineering services, payroll services) 395,100 371,900 -23,200 -6% $50,637 $24.34 YES YES Educational Services (Businesses that provide educational services to schools, colleges, and universities plus specialized schools such as computer training, language schools, flight training, cosmetology) 43,400 57,000 13,600 24% $40,657 $19.55 NO YES Health Care & Social Assistance 250,700 316,700 66,000 21% $48,068 $23.11 YES YES Leisure & Hospitality 266,700 274,500 7,800 3% $20,627 $9.92 NO NO Other Services (Auto repair shops, barber shops, other repair shops) 98,200 87,100 -11,100 -13% $31,551 $15.17 NO NO Government - Federal, State and Local (All government employees including teachers, police) 408,500 409,400 900 0% $55,388 $26.63 YES YES 2,639,100 2,515,500 -123,600 -5% $45,923 $22.08 NO YES Industry Mining Finance & Insurance Real Estate Rental & Leasing TOTAL Source: Zillow; Elliott D. Pollack & Co. Employment Change 2006-2013 Percent Median Hourly Wage - AZ Employment Change 2006-2013 Numbers Average Annual Pay 10 Appendices Table 3: Employment Growth and Housing Affordability by Industry - Urban Arizona Can Afford to Buy Median Priced House Can Afford to Rent 2-BDRM Apartment Employment 2006 Employment 2013 4,300 6,400 2,100 33% $50,627 $24.34 YES YES Construction 208,000 108,200 -99,800 -92% $50,261 $24.16 YES YES Manufacturing 168,000 140,100 -27,900 -20% $70,077 $33.69 YES YES Wholesale Trade 96,600 89,700 -6,900 -8% $68,631 $33.00 YES YES 271,400 252,500 -18,900 -7% $30,714 $14.77 NO NO Transportation & Warehousing 74,300 73,400 -900 -1% $49,138 $23.62 YES YES Information (Publishing, motion pictures and videos, radio and TV stations, and telecommunications) 39,200 37,400 -1,800 -5% $63,428 $30.49 YES YES 126,300 131,100 4,800 4% $68,979 $33.16 YES YES 46,500 43,400 -3,100 -7% $48,317 $23.23 YES YES Professional & Business Services (Legal services, management services, computer services, accounting services, engineering services, payroll services) 368,900 349,300 -19,600 -6% $52,306 $25.15 YES YES Educational Services (Businesses that provide educational services to schools, colleges, and universities plus specialized schools such as computer training, language schools, flight training, cosmetology) 45,400 59,600 14,200 24% $42,062 $20.22 NO YES Health Care & Social Assistance 206,000 263,900 57,900 22% $50,180 $24.13 YES YES Leisure & Hospitality 221,100 230,500 9,400 4% $22,401 $10.77 NO NO Other Services (Auto repair shops, barber shops, other repair shops) 86,200 76,700 -9,500 -12% $32,666 $15.70 NO NO Government - Federal, State and Local (All government employees including teachers, police) 305,500 309,000 3,500 1% $59,392 $28.55 YES YES 2,267,700 2,171,200 -96,500 -4% $48,302 $23.22 YES YES Industry Mining Retail Trade Finance & Insurance Real Estate Rental & Leasing TOTAL Source: Zillow; Elliott D. Pollack & Co. Employment Change 2006-2013 Percent Median Hourly Wage - AZ Employment Change 2006-2013 Numbers Average Annual Pay 11 Appendices Table 4: Employment Growth and Housing Affordability by Industry - Rural Arizona Median Hourly Wage - AZ Can Afford to Buy Median Priced House Can Afford to Rent 2-BDRM Apartment $48,271 $23.21 YES YES -17% $34,847 $16.75 NO YES -1,300 -17% $41,070 $19.75 YES YES 46,900 -3,800 -8% $39,435 $18.96 YES YES 10,000 10,600 600 6% $25,703 $12.36 NO NO Transportation & Warehousing 4,200 4,100 -100 -2% $42,566 $20.46 YES YES Information (Publishing, motion pictures and videos, radio and TV stations, and telecommunications) 6,900 6,800 -100 -1% $34,099 $16.39 NO YES Finance & Insurance 5,400 3,800 -1,600 -42% $50,905 $24.47 YES YES Real Estate Rental & Leasing 26,200 22,600 -3,600 -16% $25,147 $12.09 NO NO Professional & Business Services (Legal services, management services, computer services, accounting services, engineering services, payroll services) -2,000 -2,600 -600 23% $35,055 $16.85 NO YES Educational Services (Businesses that provide educational services to schools, colleges, and universities plus specialized schools such as computer training, language schools, flight training, cosmetology) 44,700 52,800 8,100 15% $31,035 $14.92 NO YES Health Care & Social Assistance 45,600 44,000 -1,600 -4% $47,502 $22.84 YES YES Leisure & Hospitality 12,000 10,400 -1,600 -15% $15,391 $7.40 NO NO Other Services (Auto repair shops, barber shops, other repair shops) 103,000 100,400 -2,600 -3% $23,883 $11.48 NO NO Government - Federal, State and Local (All government employees including teachers, police) 371,400 344,300 -27,100 -8% $0 $0.00 YES YES TOTAL 737,200 681,700 -55,500 -8% $34,703 $16.68 NO YES Rural Employment 2006 Rural Employment 2013 Rural Employment Change 2006-2013 Numbers Rural Employment Change 2006-2013 Percentage Mining 32,300 14,700 -17,600 -120% Construction 17,700 15,100 -2,600 Manufacturing 9,100 7,800 Wholesale Trade 50,700 Retail Trade Industry 12 Source: Zillow; Elliott D. Pollack & Co. Average Annual Pay Appendices Table 5: 2000, 2010 and 2012 Median Home Value and Household Income Data for Arizona Counties Median Home Value Median Household Income % Increase 20002010 % Increase 20102012 County 2000 2010 2012 Apache $41,700 $56,100 $86,200 35% Cochise $88,200 $138,700 $140,700 Coconino $142,500 $233,800 Gila $100,100 Graham Median Home Value % Increase 20002010 % Increase 20102012 % Net Increase 20002010 % Net Increase 20102012 2000 2010 2012 54% $23,344 $30,744 $33,867 32% 10% 3% 43% 57% 1% $32,105 $45,213 $43,252 41% -4% 16% 6% $214,300 64% -8% $38,256 $42,130 $45,640 10% 8% 54% -17% $164,400 $124,800 64% -24% $30,917 $38,315 $38,847 24% 1% 40% -25% $80,900 $124,800 $127,100 54% 2% $29,668 $42,152 $46,129 42% 9% 12% -8% Greenlee $62,700 $65,800 $79,300 5% 21% $39,384 $48,696 $49,692 24% 2% -19% 18% La Paz $86,500 $106,000 $95,600 23% -10% $25,839 $34,528 $36,053 34% 4% -11% -14% Maricopa $129,200 $180,800 $161,600 40% -11% $45,358 $50,410 $51,432 11% 2% 29% -13% Mohave $95,300 $143,100 $118,400 50% -17% $31,521 $36,456 $34,445 16% -6% 35% -12% Navajo $77,000 $133,700 $98,300 74% -26% $28,569 $40,623 $34,298 42% -16% 31% -11% Pima $114,600 $173,200 $153,500 51% -11% $36,758 $44,274 $44,762 20% 1% 31% -12% Pinal $93,900 $123,500 $110,100 32% -11% $35,856 $50,110 $50,515 40% 1% -8% -12% Santa Cruz $94,700 $156,400 $136,800 65% -13% $29,710 $34,378 $36,396 16% 6% 49% -18% $138,000 $188,600 $177,900 37% -6% $34,901 $40,274 $44,035 15% 9% 21% -15% $85,100 $131,800 $109,200 55% -17% $32,182 $42,240 $39,485 31% -7% 24% -11% $121,300 $168,800 $151,500 39% -10% $40,558 $46,789 $47,826 15% 2% 24% -12% Yavapai Yuma State of Arizona Census 3-Year Estimate Census 5-Year Estimate Source: Zillow; Elliott D. Pollack & Co. 13 2014 Workforce Housing Affordability . . . a glance. Population Growth 2006 – 2013 Arizona population 14 Urban growth population Rural growth population growth 2006 6,116,409 2007 6,274,981 158,572 4,730,671 107,282 1,544,310 51,290 2008 6,368,649 93,668 4,792,861 62,190 1,575,788 31,478 2009 6,389,081 20,432 4,805,410 12,549 1,583,671 7,883 2010 6,401,569 12,488 4,805,226 -184 1,596,343 12,672 2011 6,438,178 36,609 4,829,451 24,225 1,608,727 12,384 2012 6,498,569 60,391 4,875,085 45,634 1,623,484 14,757 2013 6,581,054 82,485 4,940,905 65,820 1,640,149 16,665 4,623,389 1,493,020 “Source: Office of Employment & Population Statistics, State Demographer’s Office; U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics“ Employment Growth 2006 – 2013 Arizona employment Urban growth employment Rural growth employment growth 2006 2,639,300 2007 2,679,400 40,100 2,191,500 28,600 487,900 11,500 2008 2,622,500 -56,900 2,135,400 -56,100 487,100 -800 2009 2,432,600 -189,900 2,034,300 -101,100 398,300 -88,800 2010 2,386,100 -46,500 1,994,000 -40,300 392,100 -6,200 2011 2,412,100 26,000 2,019,600 25,600 392,500 400 2012 2,463,500 51,400 2,065,400 45,800 398,100 5,600 2013 2,515,200 51,700 2,116,400 51,000 398,800 700 2,162,900 476,400 “Source: Office of Employment & Population Statistics, State Demographer’s Office; U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics“ 15 2014 Arizona’s Housing Market ... a glance. Sources Arizona Department of Housing Arizona Office of Employment & Populations Statistics, State Demographer’s Office Elliott D. Pollack & Company U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Census Bureau U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency Zillow Title II of the Americans with Disabilities Act prohibits discrimination on the basis of disability in the programs of a public agency. Individuals with disabilities who need the information contained in this publication in an alternate format may contact the Arizona Department of Housing at (602) 771-1000 or our TTY number (602) 771-1001 to make their needs known. Requests should be made as soon as possible to allow sufficient time to arrange for the accommodation. Arizona Department of Housing 1110 W. Washington, Suite 310 Phoenix, AZ 85007 (602) 771-1000 www.azhousing.gov The goal of the Arizona Department of Housing is to alleviate many of the issues raised in this document through strategic public investment and technical assistance. If you would like additional information, please contact: Michael Trailor, Director Arizona Department of Housing (602) 771-1000 michael.trailor@azhousing.gov