JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights
1716 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Phone:
(602) 926-5491
Fax:
(602) 926-5416

www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

"Year-todate…FY 2018
General Fund
revenues are
7.2% above
the prior year
and are $257.9
million above
forecast.”

March 2018

Summary
February General Fund revenue collections
were $412.8 million, which was 1.6% above
the prior year and $10.2 million above
forecast.
February is the beginning of the state's tax
filing season, and is typically one of the
smaller overall collection months. This is due
to the minimal amount of tax payments
being processed and significant amount of
refunds being issued.
In addition, the variation in refund activity
can cause significant fluctuations in
Individual Income Tax collections. While
February saw strong Income Tax withholding
growth ($14 million above forecast), this was
entirely offset by a significant increase in
refunds (forecast loss of $32 million).
After also factoring in minimal gains from tax
payments, in total the Individual Income Tax
category declined by (28)% below the prior
year and posted a forecast loss of $(16)
million.
In terms of potential trends over the next
several months, recent data (through midMarch) shows that the number of refunds
issued so far by the state during the filing
season has increased by 4.9%. However,
without information on the average size of
refunds, it is difficult to draw any conclusions
on the level of refund activity over the
remainder of the filing season.
In addition, significant payment activity
usually does not begin to occur until late

March or early April, so little will be known
about that component of Individual Income
Tax for several more weeks.
In terms of the state's other major revenue
categories, Sales Tax collections increased by
8.9% during the month and were $9.0 million
above forecast. The reasons behind the
significant Sales Tax growth are unclear,
however, as information on Sales Tax
categories (such as retail) was not available
from the Department of Revenue at this time.
Year-to-date, excluding Urban Revenue
Sharing and one-time fund transfers, FY 2018
General Fund revenues are 7.2% above the
prior year and are $257.9 million above
forecast.
In comparison to February revenues of $412.8
million, February 2018 spending was $612.1
million, which is a decrease of $(10.6) million
below the prior year.
Fiscal year-to-date, General Fund revenues of
$6.33 billion have been exceeded by $7.23
billion of expenditures.
The operating fund balance consists of the
General Fund and certain dedicated
funds. The operating balance as of midMarch 2018 is $1.78 billion.
In addition to the state’s operating fund, the
Budget Stabilization Fund (BSF) has a balance
of $457 million.

Table of Contents
Summary
February Revenues ................................................ 2
Monthly Indicators ................................................. 4
This report has been
prepared for the Arizona
Legislature by the Joint
Legislative Budget
Committee Staff on
March 20, 2018.

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
• ADOA – Building Renewal Spending .............. 7
• AHCCCS – Report on Arnold v Sarn ................ 7
• AHCCCS – Report on Proposition 206 ............. 7
• AHCCCS/DES/DCS – Capitation Rates .......... 8
• DCS – Foster Care and Medicaid Report ...... 8

• DCS – CHILDS Replacement Project................8
• DCS – Monthly Hiring Report..............................9
• Corrections – IT System Replacement .............9
• ACJC – Anti-Racketeering Fund ......................9
• ADE – School District Overrides .........................9
• Judiciary – Probation Officer Salaries ............10

February Spending ...............................................11
Arizona Economic Trends .................. Appendix A

2

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2018

February Revenues
Table 1

February
Year-to-Date

General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions)
FY 2018
Collections
$ 412.8
$ 6,330.6

Sales Tax collections (preliminary estimate) of $382.6
million were 8.9% above February 2017 and $9.0 million
above the forecast for the month. Year to date,
collections have increased by 6.2% and are $55.3 million
above forecast.
Individual Income Tax net revenues of $47.8 million in
February were $(18.6) million less than in the prior year
and $(15.7) million below the forecast for the month.
Year to date, revenue has grown 10.2% over the prior
year.
As indicated in Table 2, February withholding revenues
increased by 9.6% from last year and were $14.3 million
above the forecast. A portion of the monthly increase
may reflect impacts of increasing the state minimum
wage by $0.50 (to $10.50) on January 1, 2018. Year-todate withholding collections are 6.6% above FY 2017.
February estimated and final payments of $24.7 million
were 16.5% above last year and $2.4 million above the
forecast. Year to date, payments are 29.0% above FY
2017 and $137.6 million above the forecast. As discussed
more in previous issues of the Monthly Fiscal Highlights,
there are several potential reasons for the large year-todate increase in payments, such as a recent federal limit
placed on State and Local Tax deductions and strong
stock market growth in 2017. The primary cause of high
year-to-date payment growth may not be clear until the
April tax season concludes.
February Individual Income Tax refunds totaled $(330.3)
million – this compares to $(277.3) million in February 2017
and a forecasted amount of $(297.9) million. Year to
date, refunds have led to a $(21.4) million revenue
decrease compared to the enacted forecast.
Table 2

Individual Income Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year
February
YTD
Withholding
9.6%
6.6%
Estimated/Final Payments
16.5%
29.0%
Refunds
19.1%
12.6%

Difference From
Enacted Forecast
$ 10.2
$ 257.9

Difference
From FY 2017
$ 6.3
$ 445.7

Corporate Income Tax net collections were $5.4
million in February, which was $7.7 million more than
in the prior year and $8.1 million above the
forecast. Year to date, collections are $(14.2) million
below prior year collections and $20.0 million above
the enacted forecast.
Insurance Premium Tax collections of $5.0 million in
February were (49.8)% below the prior year, but $3.0
million above the forecast. Year to date,
collections are (2.6)% below last year and $(7.6)
million below the forecast.
The Lottery Commission reports that February ticket
sales were $81.2 million, which is $2.8 million, or 3.6%,
above sales in February 2017. Year-to-date sales
are 18.6% above the prior year. In terms of General
Fund collections, year-to-date lottery revenues are
$6.6 million above the prior year and $6.2 million
above the forecast.
Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) collections of
$123.5 million in February were up 6.7% compared
to February of last year and were $4.2 million above
forecast. Year-to-date collections are 3.9% above
last year.
Due to delays in reporting final January revenues for
various revenues sources, DOR has made technical
adjustments to prior month collection figures. For
February, DOR has increased the amount of prior
General Fund revenue collections by $0.3 million,
and the adjustment has been included in the
reported year-to-date results.

3
Table 3

General Fund Revenue:

Change from Previous Year and Budget Forecast
February 2018
Current Month

FY 2018 YTD (Eight Months)

Change From
Actual

February 2017

February 2018

Amount

Change from
Baseline Forecast

Percent

Amount

Actual

Percent

February 2017

February 2018

Amount

Baseline Forecast

Percent

Amount

Percent

Taxes
Sales and Use
Income - Individual
- Corporate

$382,600,000
47,844,156

$31,351,278
(18,598,520)

8.9 %
(28.0)

2.4 %

$182,332,456

3,067,672,064

283,977,766

10.2

6.2 %

$55,333,680
193,638,015

1.8 %
6.7

--

159,932,023

(14,228,954)

(8.2)

19,992,016

14.3

7,735,294

Property

1,869,008

654,984

54.0

1,565,380

515.6

22,261,367

Luxury - Tobacco

1,753,969

(72,470)

(4.0)

0

0.0

14,686,300

2,834,057

384,620

15.7

0

0.0

23,767,202

1,151,673

5.1

1,115,301

4.9

(49.8)

2,993,435

149.0

213,032,689

(5,658,333)

(2.6)

(7,580,705)

(3.4)

--

1,552,006

--

4.2 %

$7,536,169

1.7 %

Insurance Premium

5,002,323

(4,959,898)

Other Taxes

1,678,218

1,652,692

$448,967,333

$18,147,980

Sub-Total Taxes

8,147,158

$3,140,315,042

(24.7)

5,385,603

- Liquor

--

$8,966,078
(15,687,887)

1,435,598
(364,742)

2,891,337

1,507,495

$6,644,558,024

$450,152,960

6.9

(184,844)

(0.8)

(2.4)

(555,091)

(3.6)

108.9
7.3 %

958,809
$262,717,181

49.6
4.1 %

Other Revenue
Lottery
License, Fees and Permits
Interest

0
2,339,756
5,061

Sales and Services

11,427,739

Other Miscellaneous

(6,180,091)

Disproportionate Share
Transfers and Reimbursements
Sub-Total Other Revenue
TOTAL BASE REVENUE

(17,992,300) (100.0)
(163,407)
2,478
435,103
(5,235,047)

--

51,316,237

6,579,894

14.7

6,193,204

(6.5)

(993,869)

(29.8)

26,481,637

1,500,926

6.0

2,868,844

96.0

(221,169)

(97.8)

276,099

179,459

185.7

4.0
553.9

0

1,603,709
(9,117,234)

16.3
--

22,292,763
8,467,190

417,736
(11,400,814)

1.9
(57.4)

0

0

--

0

--

0

0

12,112,088

11,680,925

--

11,387,792

--

30,105,512

9,982,166

(36.4) %

$2,659,229

15.6 %

$138,939,438

$7,259,367

5.5 %

$6,875,733

1.5 %

$10,195,398

2.2 %

$6,783,497,462

$457,412,326

7.2 %

(1,432,326)

2.6

$19,704,553
$468,671,886

($11,272,248)

-49.6

(291,398)

13.7
12.1
(51.3)

(360,850)

(1.6)

(18,770,203)

(68.9)

0
5,493,515
($4,866,888)
$257,850,293

-22.3
(3.4) %
4.0 %

Other Adjustments
Urban Revenue Sharing
One-Time Transfers
Sub-Total Other Adjustments
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE

(56,730,840)
900,000
(55,830,840)

0

(0.0)

900,000

--

0

0.0

(532,326)

1.0 %

0

(0.0) %

(453,846,720)
900,000
(452,946,720)

(11,458,608)
(291,548)
(11,750,156)

2.6
(24.5)

0

(0.0)

0

0.0

2.7 %

0

(0.0) %

$257,850,294

4.2 %

$412,841,046

$6,343,406

1.6 %

$10,195,399

2.5 %

$6,330,550,742

$445,662,170

7.6 %

$123,478,427

$7,751,779

6.7 %

$4,244,821

3.6 %

$959,258,954

$35,720,310

3.9 %

Non-General Funds
Highway User Revenue Fund

($214,425)

(0.0) %

4

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2018

Monthly Indicators
NATIONAL
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau
of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.5% in the
fourth quarter of 2017. This estimate reflects a slow down
from the +3% growth during the prior 2 quarters. The
modest slowdown was primarily due to a decrease in
inventory investment. Declining performance in that
category was partly offset by a pick up in consumption
expenditures, exports, business and residential
investment, and government spending.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence
Index increased by 5.2% to 130.8 in February. The latest
reading is 12.7% above the index in February 2017 and is
at its highest level since November 2000. The increase in
February reflected greater consumer optimism about
near-term economic expectations and improvement in
consumer assessments about current conditions. The
percentage of surveyed individuals that think jobs are
currently plentiful minus the percent that think jobs are
scarce rose from 20.8 % to 24.7% during the month,
which was the highest reading since 2001. Economists
expect the large rise in confidence was partly driven by
higher paychecks resulting from reductions to federal
income tax rates in 2018.
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau
of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Personal Consumption
Expenditure Price Index (PCEPI) increased 0.4% in
January. Monthly growth was widespread, but was led
by 3.0% growth in energy prices. Despite the monthly
increase, the index’s year-over-year growth rate
remained at 1.7% during the month. That rate remains
below the Federal Reserve Bank’s (Fed) 2.0% annual
inflation target. The index for core inflation (all items less
food and energy) was 1.5% above the reading in
January 2017.
Consumer prices, as measured by the U.S. Consumer
Price Index (CPI), increased 0.2% in February and
increased 2.2% above January 2018 prices. The monthly
index increase had a variety of positive contributors
including the indexes for shelter, apparel and motor
vehicle insurance. Core inflation (all items less food and
energy) increased 0.2% for the month, along with
increases in the indexes for household furnishings,
education and personal care. The indexes for
communication, new vehicles and medical care saw
decreases for the month.
The Conference Board's U.S. Leading Economic Index
increased 1.0% in January to 108.1 and stands 6.2%
above its January 2017 reading. The strongest positive
contributor for the month was the building permits index,

followed by the indexes for stock prices and Institute for
Supply Management (ISM) new orders. Of the index's
10 components, 8 made positive contributions for the
month.
ARIZONA
Housing
Single-family housing construction is increasing. In
January, Arizona’s 12-month total of single-family
building permits was 27,921, or 14.6% more than a year
ago. The comparable single-family permit growth rate
for the entire U.S. was 9.6%.
The 12-month total of multi-family building permits has
been up and down. In January, Arizona’s total of
10,608 multi-family building permits was (3.3)% less than
in 2017. Nationwide multi-family permits were 1.2%
more than in 2017.
Tourism
Revenue per available room was $80.96 in January,
which was 4.6% above the amount in January 2017.
Ridership through Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport during the
month was up 2.7% compared to January 2017.
Employment
As a result of the annual benchmarking revision of
establishment survey data, the Office of Economic
Opportunity (OEO) reported in March that Arizona
added on average 4,500 more jobs per month in 2016
than previous estimates had indicated. The average
monthly revision in 2017 was +21,600 jobs. Based on the
benchmark revision, the state had a net increase of
63,900 (+2.4%) nonfarm jobs in 2017.
The latest estimate of nonfarm employment showed
that the state shed (46,800) jobs in January compared
to December 2017. Job losses typically occur in
January when the holiday season comes to an end.
The average job reduction for the month of January in
the prior 10 years was (56,600). Compared to January
2017, nonfarm employment was up by 2.2%, or 60,200
jobs.
The household survey data used to estimate the state’s
unemployment rate was also recently revised.
January’s seasonally adjusted jobless rate of 4.8% was
0.1% higher than in the prior month. Compared to a
year ago, the unemployment rate is down by (0.4)%.
The U.S. unemployment rate in January was 4.1%.
OEO reported that 14,230 initial claims for
unemployment insurance were filed in February, a
decrease of (5.3)% compared to the same month last
year.

5

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2018

Monthly Indicators (Continued)
According to OEO, the state had a total of 20,475
claimants receiving unemployment insurance benefits
in February, a decrease of (6.1)% from January. This
figure is (12.3)% below the February 2017 level.
In January, the Average Weekly Hours worked by
individuals in Arizona’s private sector was 34.8 hours.
This workload was the same as the level during the prior
month, as well as 0.3% above the level in January 2017.
The Average Hourly Earnings received by private sector
workers was $25.40, which is (0.6)% below the average
in the prior month. Year-over-year growth in earnings
slowed from 6.2% in December to 2.8% in January.
Year-over-year growth dropped below 5.0% for the first
time since June 2017.
State Agency Data
At the beginning of March 2018, the total AHCCCS
caseload was 1.80 million members. Since the federal
health care expansion in January 2014, the overall
AHCCCS population has grown by 536,700 members.
Total monthly enrollment decreased by (13,800) during
February and is (4.0)% lower than a year ago. The
monthly decrease was spread across most populations.
The Traditional and Proposition 204 populations of low
income parents and children comprised the largest part
of the decrease, collectively falling (10,300), or (0.8)%
from the prior month. Parent and child enrollment in the
Traditional and Proposition 204 populations is (5.0)%
lower than a year ago.
Laws 2016, Chapter 112 reopened enrollment in
KidsCare program in September 1, 2016. Following the
enrollment freeze in January 2010, the KidsCare
caseload had dropped to 500 members by August
2016. Through March 1, 2018, enrollment in the program
was 25,200, or 1,500 more than the prior month’s
enrollment.
In January 2014, the state started accepting new
enrollment to the Proposition 204 childless adults
program. In February 2018, the childless adult
population decreased by (2,100), or (0.7)%. At 305,600,
this population is (3.4)% lower than a year ago.
The state also opted to expand adult Medicaid
coverage to 133% of FPL. Their enrollment decreased
by (1,100) in February and now totals 77,100 individuals.
Enrollment is (5.4)% lower than a year ago. The federal
share of this population's cost decreased from 95% to
94% in January 2018.

There were 15,573 TANF recipients in the state in
February, representing a (2.2)% monthly caseload
decrease from January. The year-over-year number
of TANF recipients has declined by (15.0)%. The
statutory lifetime limit on cash assistance is 24 months.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
(SNAP), formerly known as Food Stamps, provides
assistance to low-income households to purchase
food. In February, 846,187 people received food
stamp assistance in the state, representing a (2.3)%
decrease below January. Compared to February
2017, the level of food stamp participation has
declined by (8.7)%.
The inmate population was 41,730 as of February 28,
2018. This is a (0.1)% decrease since January, and a
(1.1)% decrease since last February.
Based on information the Department of Child Safety
provided for January 2018, reports of child
maltreatment totaled 47,407 over the last 12 months,
a decrease of (1.2)% over the prior year. There were
15,117 children in out-of-home care as of December
2017, or (11.9)% less than in December
2016. Compared to the prior month, the number of
out-of-home children decreased by (1.6)%.
According to the most recent information from the
Administrative Office of the Courts, the Maricopa
County probation caseload was 28,527 as of
December 2017. This was an increase of 241 above
the prior month, and a 575 increase since last
December. In addition, the state’s non-Maricopa
County probation caseload was 19,127. This was an
increase of 51 above the prior month, and a 147
increase since last December. These figures represent
standard and intensive probation caseloads,
including both adult and juvenile probation.

6

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2018
Table 4

Indicator
Arizona
Employment
- Regular Unemployment Rate
- Total Unemployment Rate
(discouraged/underemployed)
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Unemployment Insurance Recipients
- Non-Farm Employment - Total
Manufacturing
Construction
- Average Weekly Hours, Private Sector
- Average Hourly Earnings, Private Sector
Sales
- Retail Taxable Sales
Motor Vehicles/Misc. Auto
Furniture/Home Furnishings
Building Material/Lawn & Garden
Building
- Residential Building Permits (12month avg) Single-family
Multi-family
- Maricopa County/Other, Home Sales
(ARMLS) Single-Family (Pending
Sales)
- Maricopa County/Other, Median Home Price
(ARMLS) Single-Family (Pending Sales)
- Phoenix S&P/C Home Price Index (2000 = 100)
- Maricopa Pending Foreclosures
- Greater Phoenix Total Housing Inventory, (ARMLS)
Tourism
- Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers
- National Park Visitors
- State Park Visitors
- Revenue Per Available Hotel Room
General Measures
- Arizona Leading Index -- 6 month projected growth
- Arizona Personal Income
- Arizona Population
- State Debt Rating
Standards & Poor’s/Moody’s
Outlook
Agency Measures
- AHCCCS Recipients
Acute Care Traditional
Prop 204 Childless Adults
Other Prop 204
Adult Expansion
Kids Care I
Long-Term Care – Elderly & DD
Emergency Services
- Department of Child Safety (DCS)
Annual Reports of Child Maltreatment (12-month
total)
DCS Out-of-Home Children
Filled Caseworkers (1406 Budgeted)
- ADC Inmate Growth
- Department of Economic Security
- TANF Recipients
- SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients
- Judiciary Probation Caseload
Non-Maricopa
Maricopa County
United States
- Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2009 dollars, SAAR)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Leading Indicators Index (2016 = 100)
- Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100)
- Personal Consumption Price Index (2009 = 100)

MONTHLY INDICATORS

Change From
Prior Period

Change From
Prior Year

Time Period

Current Value

January
4th Q 2017

4.8%
9.5%

0.1%
(0.4)%

(0.4)%
(1.3)%

February
February
January
January
January
January
January

14,230
20,475
2,791,400
168,800
148,900
34.8
$25.40

(23.2)%
(6.1)%
(1.8)%
(0.6)%
(1.5)%
0.0%
(0.6)%

(5.3)%
(12.3)%
2.2%
4.9%
8.8%
0.3%
2.8%

April
April
April

$1,117 million
$342.9 million
$463.6 million

15.3%
4.1%
26.6%

5.4%
4.3%
9.3%

January
January

27,921
10,608

January

5,313

January
December
January
January

$269,000
173.82
3,030
21,664

January
December
February
January

1.7%
5.9%

14.6%
(3.3)%

42.2%

(0.1)%

1.3%
0.2%
(0.6)%
8.3%

12.1%
5.6%
(5.5)%
(11.0)%

3,585,024
792,536
280,299
$80.96

(3.7)%
(14.3)%
0.8%
37.9%

2.7%
22.7%
7.8%
4.6%

0.6%
$290.2 billion
7,016,270

(5.9)%
0.7%
N/A

(2.3)%
2.4%
1.6%

May
May

AA / Aa2
Stable

N/A
N/A

N/A
N/A

March 1st

1,795,009
1,030,826
305,584
181,739
77,098
25,154
61,298
113,308

(0.8)%
(0.8)%
(0.7)%
(0.8)%
(1.4)%
6.3%
0.4%
(1.8)%

(4.0)%
(6.6)%
(3.4)%
5.2%
(5.4)%
65.1%
3.9%
(6.2)%

January
December

47,407
15,117

February
February

1,305
41,730

(2)
(0.1)%

(39)
(1.1)%

February
February

15,573
846,187

(2.2)%
(2.3)%

(15.0)%
(8.7)%

January
January

19,127
28,527

December
3rd Q 2017
July 2017

4th Q, 2017 (2nd
Estimate)
February
January
February
January

(0.1)%
(1.6)%

51
241

(1.2)%
(11.9)%

147
575

$17.3 trillion

2.5%

2.5%

130.8
108.1
249.6
114.1

5.2%
1.0%
0.2%
0.4%

12.7%
6.2%
2.2%
1.7%

7

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2018

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
Arizona Department of Administration – Report on
Building Renewal Spending – Pursuant to an FY 2018
Capital Outlay Bill (Laws 2017, Chapter 306) footnote,
the Arizona Department of Administration (ADOA)
reported the status of all building renewal projects
and building renewal expenditures. As of December
31, 2017, ADOA has spent $22.3 million of its $27.0
million FY 2017 building renewal appropriation. The
majority of FY 2017 projects are complete with the
remaining projects in progress encumbering an
additional $3.9 million. In addition, ADOA has spent
$2.5 million of its $8.3 million FY 2018 building renewal
appropriation. The majority of FY 2018 projects are in
progress encumbering an additional $2.2 million.
(Rebecca Perrera)
Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System –
Report on Arnold v. Sarn – Pursuant to an FY 2018
General Appropriation Act (Laws 2017, Chapter 305)
footnote, the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment
System (AHCCCS) reported on its implementation of
the Arnold v. Sarn joint agreement. The state has
been a longstanding defendant in the Arnold v. Sarn
litigation concerning the level of services provided to
the Seriously Mentally Ill (SMI) population in Maricopa
County. In January 2014, a joint agreement was filed
with the court to terminate the lawsuit, and the
agreement received court approval in February
2014.
The agreement requires availability of certain
behavioral health services for individuals with a
serious mental illness in Maricopa County ("class
members"). These services include assertive
community treatment teams, peer support services,
supported employment, supportive housing, and
crisis services. AHCCCS continues to comply with
these service capacity requirements. The agency is
also working with a consultant to ensure that services
are delivered in accordance with best practices
prescribed by the federal Substance Abuse and
Mental Health Services Administration.

The agreement also limits the census of class
members at the Arizona State Hospital (ASH) to 55
members. AHCCCS reports that there are currently
55 members receiving treatment at ASH. (Patrick
Moran)
Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System –
Report on Proposition 206 – Pursuant to an FY 2018
General Appropriation Act (Laws 2017, Chapter 305)
footnote, the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment
System (AHCCCS) reported on the impact of
Proposition 206 minimum wage increases on
contracted providers for the Arizona Long Term Care
System (ALTCS). ALTCS includes persons who are
elderly or physically disabled (EPD) that are funded
within AHCCCS' budget as well as persons with an
intellectual or developmental disability (DD) that are
funded within the Department of Economic Security's
(DES) budget.
The network adequacy study was conducted by a
consultant contracted with AHCCCS. The main
findings of the study were as follows:
•

•

AHCCCS estimates that the annual cost of providing
Arnold v. Sarn services is approximately $58 million,
including $28 million from the General Fund. The
General Fund amounts consists of:
•
•
•
•

$4.9 million for Assertive Community Treatment
teams
$0.5 million for Peer Support Services
$0.6 million for Supported Employment
$21.6 million for Supported Housing, which
consists of $11.2 million for rental subsidies and
$10.4 million for support services

•

Based on measures of client access to care
currently used by AHCCCS, the initial minimum
wage increased to $10.00 in January 2017 "has
not had a significant direct impact to date on
access to services." The existing indicators
include cases where certain in-home services
were requested but not delivered within the
timeframe requested ("critical service gaps"),
lack of after-hours availability of providers,
member grievances associated with lack of
provider availability, and provider terminations or
reduction in services due to provider rates. The
consultant reported that each of these indicators
suggested the access to care issues remained
rare after initial implementation of Proposition
206 minimum wage increases.
The consultant did find, however, that Proposition
206 and Proposition 414 "have added fiscal stress
to providers." For EPD providers, wages for direct
care workers increased by 9.4% for home and
community-based services (HCBS), 12.4% for
assisted living facilities, and 5.2% for nursing
facilities. DD providers experienced similar
increases ranging from 6.1% to 8.6% for HCBS.
Many EPD and DD providers also reported high
turnover and challenges in filling vacancies.
There are differences in utilization of services and
distance from providers across regions that predated Proposition 206. The consultant
recommended that these differences be used as
the baseline to analyze the effects of Proposition
206 going forward.

8

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2018

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
The consultant made recommendations to AHCCCS in
evaluating and addressing Proposition 206 costs in the
future, including improved verification of self-reported
data from health plans, developing a new measure to
serve as a "leading" indicator of access to care issues,
ongoing analysis of utilization trends, value-based
payments to providers that successfully lower turnover,
and conducting additional provider surveys. (Patrick
Moran)
AHCCCS, DES, & DCS – Report on Preliminary Actuarial
Estimates for FY 2019 Capitation Rate Changes –
Pursuant to FY 2018 General Appropriation Act
footnotes, the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment
System (AHCCCS) submitted a report on preliminary
Medicaid capitation rate increases for contract year
(CYE) 2019. Their submission includes information for
AHCCCS, the Department of Economic Security (DES),
and the Department of Child Safety (DCS).
In their report, AHCCCS provided information on
components of potential CYE 2019 capitation rate
changes. The report does not include a projection of
overall capitation rate growth. Potential changes
include:
•

•
•

•
•

Administrative savings resulting from competitive
bidding of contracts for integrated physical and
behavioral health services. Since release of this
report, AHCCCS awarded the contracts to 7
integrated managed care organizations for
coverage from FY 2019 through FY 2023. The
winning bids do appear to result in some
administrative savings and the JLBC Staff is working
with AHCCCS to estimate those savings.
Increases based on medical expense and utilization
trends. The agency's actuaries will continue to
analyze trends through the summer of 2018.
Modifications to rate differentials for hospitals,
nursing facilities, integrated clinics and other
providers that meet requirements under a valuebased performance program. In the long run,
AHCCCS expects that the rate differential program
will incentivize provider behavior that reduces
capitation rate growth.
Rate increases for home and community based
services for added labor costs of federal regulations
implemented in recent years.
Annualization of mid-year rate increases for the long
term care program to reimburse providers for
added costs of increasing the minimum wage on
January 1, 2018 under Proposition 206 and
Proposition 414. The mid-year increase previously
received a favorable review at the JLBC meeting
held on January 9, 2018.

(Continued)

Annualization of other mid-year rate increases
favorably reviewed at the January 9, 2018 JLBC
meeting, including increases for medication
assisted treatment, a rebase of inpatient hospital
reimbursement, and newborn screening.
(Jon Stall)
•

Department of Child Safety – Quarterly Report on
Foster Care and Medicaid – Laws 2013, Chapter 220,
as amended by Laws 2016, Chapter 273, requires the
Department of Child Safety (DCS) to report on foster
care and Medicaid eligibility. During the second
quarter of FY 2018, DCS reports the following data in
foster care and Medicaid eligibility:
1.

2.

3.

There were 14,481 children eligible for Medicaid in
foster care at the end of the second quarter,
which represents approximately 96% of children in
out-of-home care.
The amount of non-Medicaid expenditures for
behavioral health inpatient facilities and
behavioral health residential facilities was
$1,006,500 in the second quarter of FY 2018.
The amount of non-Medicaid behavioral health
counseling/psychiatric services expenditures was
$142,200 in the second quarter of FY 2018. (Patrick
Moran)

Department of Child Safety – Third-Party Report on
CHILDS Replacement Project – Pursuant to an FY 2015
General Appropriation Act footnote, the Department
of Child Safety (DCS) provided an independent thirdparty assessment of the status of the Children’s
Information Library and Data Source (CHILDS)
Replacement Project for the second quarter of FY
2018.
The vendor concluded that overall the CHILDS
replacement project continues to be positioned for
success. The report includes evaluations of several
indicators of plan viability, including plan
completeness, timeline, and staffing levels and skill
sets. Of the 10 metrics gauging plan viability, the
vendor concluded that 8 metrics indicated “strong
health" and 2 metrics indicated "moderate health."
The report also includes evaluations of project
management practice, such as communication risks
to the project, project scope, and resource
management. The vendor concluded that the
project management exhibited strong health on 7 of 9
measures and moderate health on the remaining 2
measures.
The report noted that DCS is still finalizing its
procurement of a "technical integrator" for the

9

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2018

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
project, which represents a delay of 6 months compared
to DCS' original project schedule. (Patrick Moran)
Department of Child Safety – Monthly Report on Hiring –
Pursuant to an FY 2018 General Appropriation Act
footnote, the Department of Child Safety (DCS) reported
on its progress in hiring and retaining child safety staff
through February 2018. (See Table 5 below.)
The number of direct line child safety staff (caseworkers,
caseworkers in training, caseworkers awaiting training
and hotline staff) was 1,305 in February, or (101) fewer
staff than the number of funded positions. Most of the
difference between funded positions and filled positions
was driven by lower-than-budgeted staffing of
caseworkers, which was partly offset by higher-thanbudgeted staff in training. Total direct line staff
decreased by (2) since January.
There were also 1,411 non-direct line child safety staff in
February, or (100) fewer staff than the funded staffing
level. The budgeted staffing level is 1,511 excluding
Attorney General positions. Total non-direct line positions
increased by 8 compared to January. (Patrick Moran)
Arizona Department of Corrections – Third-Party Report
on Adult Inmate Management System (AIMS)
Replacement – Pursuant to an FY 2017 General
Appropriation Act footnote, the Arizona Department of
Corrections (ADC) provided quarterly updates of the
AIMS Replacement project for the period ending
November 30, 2017. The third-party reviewer continues to
report a stable fiscal status and cooperation between
the vendor and department. The review described
challenges with the sentence calculation module and
data conversion. The department and vendor have
dedicated additional staff to addressing the module
development and data error issues. The review
suggested areas where the vendor and staff should focus
their validation efforts. As of February 2018, ADC projects
activating the system by June 30, 2018. (Micaela Larkin)

Arizona Criminal Justice Commission – Report on
Anti-Racketeering Revolving Fund – Pursuant to
A.R.S. §13-2314.01 and §13-2314.03, the Arizona
Criminal Justice Commission (ACJC) is required to
report quarterly on the activities of the Arizona AntiRacketeering Revolving Fund (ARRF). ACJC is
required to compile quarterly expenditures of the
Attorney General, department, agency, county
attorney, and political subdivision reports into a
single comprehensive report of sources and
expenditures as well as report on forfeiture orders.
In the second quarter of FY 2018, the ARRF received
revenues totaling $11.5 million and had
expenditures totaling $5.2 million. Revenues for
investigating and prosecuting agencies were
highest in Maricopa County at $7.2 million.
Agencies participating in Maricopa County cases
also accounted for the highest expenditure total in
the quarter with $2.1 million in ARRF monies spent.
ARRF consists of monies derived from seized
property and assets that result from judgments
pursuant to anti-racketeering statutes. Once a
settlement or conviction is reached, the Attorney
General disperses the monies to the involved state
and local investigative and prosecutorial agencies.
Additionally, assets seized as part of a federal
investigation are deposited into the fund and used
in accordance with state and federal guidelines.
Monies in ARRF are used to help fund the
investigation and prosecution of any offense
defined as racketeering pursuant to Arizona
statutes. (Josh Hope)
Department of Education – Override Report –
Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-249.04, the Arizona
Department of Education (ADE) has reported FY
2018 data on school district budget overrides.
Overrides permit school districts to generate and
spend additional monies from local property taxes if
approved by voters. The ADE report indicates that
94 districts statewide have Maintenance and

Table 5
DCS Filled FTE Positions as of February 2018
Caseworkers
Hotline Staff
Staff in Training
Subtotal - Direct Line
Subtotal - Non-Direct Line Staff
Grand Total 1/

____________
1/ Excludes 276.2 Attorney General Staff.

Funded
1,190
76
140
1,406
1,511
2,917

February
1,072
63
170
1,305
1,411
2,716

Difference
(118)
(13)
30
(101)
(100)
(201)

10

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2018

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
Operation (M&O) overrides pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-481 in
FY 2018, 2 have “Special Program” overrides pursuant to
A.R.S. § 15-482, and 25 have “District Additional
Assistance” overrides pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-481. The
total amounts budgeted for overrides for FY 2018 include
$492.0 million for both types of M&O overrides combined
and $83.4 million for District Additional Assistance
overrides. (Steve Schimpp)
Judiciary – Report on Probation Officer Pay Adjustments
– Pursuant to an FY 2018 General Appropriation Act
footnote, the Administrative Office of the Courts (AOC)
reported on the county-approved salary adjustments
provided to probation officers since the last report on
September 30, 2016.
According to the AOC, 9 of the 15 Arizona counties
increased the salary range from FY 2017 to FY 2018 for at
least one of their probation job categories. The
increases ranged from 3% to 21%.
The AOC reports that the General Fund allocation to
counties for probation and drug courts increased $2.4
million in FY 2017, or 8% overall (see Table 6 for details).
The report indicates that the number of state-funded
Adult Probation officers increased from 259.8 in FY 2016
to 275.8 in FY 2017, or 6.2%. The number of Juvenile
Probation officers decreased from 70.2 to 66.4, or (5.3)%.
These numbers include both case-carrying and noncase-carrying officers.
AOC reports that the average statewide salary for Adult
Probation officers decreased from $46,200 in FY 2016 to
$45,800 in FY 2017. The average statewide salary for
Juvenile Probation officers increased from $46,200 in FY
2016 to $46,800 in FY 2017. These salaries include both
case-carrying and non-case-carrying officers. (Geoffrey
Paulsen)

Table 6

FY 2017 General Fund Allocation by
County 1/
County
Apache
Cochise
Coconino
Gila
Graham
Greenlee
La Paz
Maricopa
Mohave
Navajo
Pima
Pinal
Santa Cruz
Yavapai
Yuma
Total

Change
over 2016
$ (6,410)
436,256
183,181
24,067
120,239
28,705
16,562
(124,900)
126,887
(19,969)
925,452
257,516
38,083
397,497
4,134
$2,407,300

%
Change
(0.9)
34.0
8.5
3.7
12.7
8.1
6.0
(69.0)
6.5
(1.5)
10.8
7.5
4.9
12.2
0.1
8.0

____________
1/ Includes Standard and Intensive Probation,
Interstate Compact and Drug Court
Allocations

11

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2018

February Spending
February 2018 General Fund spending was $612.1
million, which is a decrease of $(10.6) million below
February 2017. (See Tables 7 & 8).
•

Year-to-date, Department of Education (ADE)
spending has increased by $76.6 million
compared to the prior year.

•

School Facilities Board spending has increased by
$48.7 million so far during FY 2018 compared to
the prior year. The agency received additional
funding for the construction of 6 schools in the
FY 2018 budget.

Table 7
General Fund Spending ($ in Millions)
Change From

YTD Change

Feb 18

Feb 17

Year-to-Date

from FY 17

AHCCCS

157.1

54.3

1,280.9

113.9

Corrections

79.3

(7.5)

740.1

49.1

Child Safety

17.4

(18.4)

239.8

(28.6)

5.2

(12.8)

523.8

37.1

262.2

36.4

3,107.4

76.6

Agency

Economic Security
Education
Health Serv ices

6.8

2.6

63.3

5.2

Public Safety

2.4

(1.2)

68.2

3.3

School Facilities Board

0.1

(41.6)

261.6

48.7

Univ ersities

58.2

8.6

470.8

21.0

Leaseback Debt Serv ice

0.0

0.0

84.1

(0.0)

Other

23.4

(31.0)

387.9

(22.8)

Total

612.1

(10.6)

7,227.9

303.5

12

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2018

Table 8

General Fund Spending
($ in Thousands)
Agency
Dept. of Admin./Automation Projects Fund
ADOA – Sale/Leaseback Debt Service
Office of Administrative Hearings
Commission of African-American Affairs
Department of Agriculture
AHCCCS
Attorney General
State Board of Charter Schools
Department of Child Safety
AZ Commerce Authority
Community Colleges
Corporation Commission
Department of Corrections
County Funding
AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind
Office of Economic Opportunity
Department of Economic Security
State Board of Education
Department of Education
DEMA
DEQ – WQARF
Office of Equal Opportunity
State Board of Equalization
Board of Executive Clemency
Department of Financial Institutions
Department of Fire, Bldg and Life Safety
Department of Forestry and Fire Management
Department of Gaming
Governor/OSPB
Department of Health Services
Arizona Historical Society
Prescott Historical Society of AZ
Department of Housing
Independent Redistricting Comm.
Department of Insurance
Judiciary
Supreme/Superior Court
Court of Appeals
Department of Juvenile Corrections

1,394.8
31.5
8.9
605.6
157,086.1
1,701.0
79.8
17,387.4
1,791.7
252.2
65.3
79,291.7
850.8
31.2
5,227.7
89.5
262,201.8
1,714.5
12.8
25.7
55.1
146.7
514.0
641.0
6,776.9
202.1
57.1
336.8

Change from
February 17
17.3
(34.0)
(10.9)
36.3
54,320.8
57.0
12.3
(18,429.0)
44.1
(11.4)
29.3
(7,488.7)
(1,615.1)
31.2
(12,843.4)
32.7
36,383.7
1,753.3
3.5
(0.9)
14.1
(50.5)
114.4
254.5
2,645.1
(7.1)
(2.3)
(60.3)
(40.6)
(93.9)

2,417.1
1,113.0
(259.7)

139.3
89.3
(1,115.0)

February 18

Year-to-Date

YTD Change
from FY 17

25,778.7
84,115.1
622.4
91.0
6,567.4
1,280,945.5
16,701.5
710.8
239,833.7
14,483.6
40,877.2
1,415.8
740,115.3
15,650.7
15,677.5
327.0
523,826.4
728.2
3,107,382.4
7,696.7
2,823.6
127.9
392.7
648.1
1,363.5
6,694.8
1,779.5
8,103.3
63,315.1
1,701.4
559.9
246.0
0.8
3,659.6

(1,566.5)
(2.3)
33.8
5.1
482.9
113,865.1
1,686.8
53.9
(28,642.7)
44.1
1,070.2
804.5
49,121.7
1,650.2
(672.9)
(449.2)
37,097.4
117.9
76,555.4
2,089.6
(6.1)
(15.7)
144.8
(496.1)
2.4
2,309.6
(75.0)
1,920.4
5,219.6
(495.6)
33.7
(334.9)
(757.7)
427.5

60,484.7
9,803.6
12,757.1

1,389.9
815.0
(1,731.8)

13

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2018

Table 8 (Continued)

Agency
State Land Department
Legislature
Auditor General
House of Representatives
Joint Legislative Budget Comm.
Legislative Council
Senate
Mine Inspector
Nav. Streams & Adjudication
Phoenix Convention Center
Comm. for Postsecondary Ed.
Department of Public Safety
Public Safety Personnel Retirement System
Radiation Regulatory Agency
Real Estate Department
Department of Revenue
School Facilities Board
Secretary of State
Tax Appeals Board
Office of Tourism
Department of Transportation
Governor's Office on Tribal Relations
Universities
Board of Regents
Arizona State University
Northern Arizona University
University of Arizona
Department of Veteran Services
Department of Water Resources
Department of Weights & Measures
Other - State Treasurer/JP Salaries
Other - ADOT Capital
Other
Total

February 18
612.8

Change from
February 17
8.3

Year-to-Date
7,585.2

YTD Change
from FY 17
819.7

1,624.1
1,178.2
205.6
450.7
788.6
80.6
9.0
2,405.4
0.3
156.2
2,269.7
102.7
795.3
8.9
0.6
0.6

54.5
(77.4)
45.3
(96.4)
45.9
6.0
(2.9)
(1,172.2)
0.3
10.2
(364.2)
(41,626.5)
(26.1)
(25.0)
(36.4)
2.0

14,814.6
9,496.7
1,702.1
4,402.1
6,285.3
806.4
87.6
22,499.0
1,646.8
68,217.7
6,000.0
646.9
1,732.1
19,723.0
261,638.8
10,188.8
190.9
6,400.8
29.6
16.9

1,992.7
902.5
193.3
(182.9)
567.5
71.6
1.0
2,050.0
254.8
3,268.3
(581.1)
31.6
0.7
48,710.5
(9,530.2)
4.2
213.6
(8.1)
(17.2)

76.1
26,688.3
9,051.1
22,384.2
403.0
858.1
86.4
612,086.6

4,866.0
2,003.9
614.7
1,072.6
12.6
142.4
20.7
(30,000.0)
(219.7)
(10,566.2)

5,635.5
213,506.0
72,408.5
179,287.7
3,772.7
10,332.2
(1.0)
757.1
125.0
7,227,948.1

(8,850.1)
16,096.4
4,967.1
8,795.3
83.8
3,548.0
(1.8)
(0.4)
(31,500.0)
(56.7)
303,543.4

JLBC
Jul-16

Jul-17

Jan 01
Jul 01
Jan 02
Jul 02
Jan 03
Jul 03
Jan 04
Jul 04
Jan 05
Jul 05
Jan 06
Jul 06
Jan 07
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 14
Jan 15
Jul 15
Jan 16
Jul 16
Jan 17
Jul 17
Jan 18

2.8% Y/Y Growth
(January 2018)

Jan 09

$19

Jan 01
Jul 01
Jan 02
Jul 02
Jan 03
Jul 03
Jan 04
Jul 04
Jan 05
Jul 05
Jan 06
Jul 06
Jan 07
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 14
Jan 15
Jul 15
Jan 16
Jul 16
Jan 17
Jul 17
Jan 18

Jan-18

Jul-17

Jan-17

Jul-16

Jan-16

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 11

July 10

Jan 10

July 09

Year Over Year Growth (%)

Jan-18

12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%

Jan-17

Jan 08
July 08

$21

Jan-16

Jan 07
July 07

$ / Hour
$22

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 11

July 10

Jan 10

July 09

Jan 09

July 08

Jan 08

July 07

Jan 07

Year Over Year Growth (%)
$26

$25

$24

$23

$25.40 / Hour
(January 2018)
Total Monthly Claims

1

JLBC

Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector

$27

$20

3

JLBC

40,000

35,000

30,000

100%

Jul 01

Jul 15

Jul 16

Jan 18

Jul 17

Jan 17

2,200

Jan 16

2,300

Jul 14

2,400

Jan 15

8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jan 10

Jul 09

Jan 09

Jul 08

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jan 07

Jul 06

Jan 06

Jul 05

Jan 05

Jul 04

Jan 04

Jul 03

Jan 03

Jul 02

Jan 02

Page:
Thousands of Jobs

March 2018
Appendix A

Jan 01

Jan 01
Jul 01
Jan 02
Jul 02
Jan 03
Jul 03
Jan 04
Jul 04
Jan 05
Jul 05
Jan 06
Jul 06
Jan 07
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 14
Jan 15
Jul 15
Jan 16
Jul 16
Jan 17
Jul 17
Jan 18

2……Total Non-Farm Employment
3……Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector
4……Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
5……State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
6……State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting
Category
7……Residential Building Permits
Year Over Year Growth (%)

Arizona Economic Trends

Total Non-Farm Employment

2,900

2,800

2,700

2,600

2,500

$22.73 / Hour
(Octoberjobs
2014)
2,791,400
(January 2018)

2,100

2.2% Y/Y Growth
(January 2018)

2

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

45,000

14,230 Claims
(February 2018)

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000
5,000

150%

(5.3)% Y/Y Growth
(February 2018)

50%

0%

-50%

4

Jan 01
Jul 01
Jan 02
Jul 02
Jan 03
Jul 03
Jan 04
Jul 04
Jan 05
Jul 05
Jan 06
Jul 06
Jan 07
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 14
Jan 15
Jul 15
Jan 16
Jul 16
Jan 17
Jul 17
Jan 18

Building Permits

JLBC
Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

60,000

50,000

12-Month Moving Sum
Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 11

July 10

Jan 10

July 09

Jan 09

July 08

Jan 08

July 07

Jul 14

Jul 16

* January 2014 estimate adjusted downward by $30 million to reflect one-time
category shift.

2.8% Y/Y Growth
(January 2018)

5

Residential Building Permits

100,000

90,000

80,000

70,000

Single Family Unit - 27,921 Permits
Multi-Family Unit - 10,608 Permits
(January 2018)

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

7

JLBC
Jan 08

Jan 09

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

Jan 18

Jul 17

Jan 17

Jul 16

Jan 16

Jan 07

Jan 08

Jan 18

Jul 17

Jan 17

Jul 16

Jan 16

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 11

July 10

Jan 10

July 09

Jan 09

July 08

$ in Millions
$50

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 11

July 10

Jan 10

July 09

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
July 07

$100

July 06

$257.7 million
(January 2018)

July 08

Jul 17
Jan 18

$175

July 07

Jul 16
Jan 17

$200

Jan 07

Jul 15
Jan 16

$ in Millions
$225

July 06

Year Over Year Growth (%)

Jan 18

Jul 17

Jan 17

Jul 14
Jan 15

$125

Jan 16

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 11

July 10

Jan 10

July 09

Jan 09

July 08

Jan 08

July 07

Jan 07

July 06

* Jan 14

20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
* Jan 14

JLBC
Jan 07

July 06

Year Over Year Growth (%)

State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting Category

$250
$100

$75

$40.9 million
(January 2018)

$150
$25

$0

8.6% Y/Y Growth
(January 2018)

6