JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights
1716 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Phone:
(602) 926-5491
Fax:
(602) 926-5416

www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

“Year-to-date
… FY 2018
General Fund
revenues are
7.7% above
the prior year
and are $247.4
million above
forecast.”

February 2018

Summary
January 2018 General Fund revenue
collections totaled $1.08 billion, an amount
which was 16.3% above the prior year and
$105.2 million above forecast. The January
forecast gains were mostly due to significant
growth in the Individual Income Tax (IIT)
category.
In the December Monthly Fiscal Highlights,
JLBC Staff noted there could be several
explanations for the recent surge in income
tax payments including: 1) Taxpayers
increasing payments prior to the cap
of State and Local Tax (SALT) deductions
taking place in federal Tax Year 2018; 2)
Capital gains due to the approximate 25%
growth in stock market values during 2017;
and 3) An increase is the profitability of "passthrough" businesses, whose income tax is
mostly paid through quarterly tax payments.
These all remain potential factors in
explaining the recent payment growth, and
may become more apparent after
additional data during the upcoming tax
filing season.
In December, we also suggested the
possibility that the December payment
growth may be a timing issue in terms of the
artificial distinction between payments being
posted in December compared to January.
This turned out not to be the case, as the
state's Income Tax payments grew by 22% in
January compared to the prior year.
Year-to-date, excluding Urban Revenue
Sharing and one-time fund transfers, FY 2018

General Fund revenues are 7.7% above the
prior year and are $247.4 million above
forecast.
Beginning with this February report, the
Monthly Fiscal Highlights compares actual
revenue collections to the Baseline forecast
published last month. The Baseline forecast is
based on the 4-sector consensus estimates
that were presented at the January Finance
Advisory Committee meeting.
In comparison to January revenues of $1.08
billion, January 2018 spending was $786.6
million, which is an increase of $22.6 million
above the prior year.
Fiscal year-to-date, General Fund revenues of
$5.92 billion have been exceeded by $6.61
billion of expenditures.
The operating fund balance consists of the
General Fund and certain dedicated
funds. The operating balance as of midFebruary 2018 is $1.93 billion.
In addition to the state’s operating fund, the
Budget Stabilization Fund (BSF) has a balance
of $455.7 million.
Year-to-Date Results and Implications for the
Budget Forecast
As noted above, year-to-date through
January, the state's revenue collections are
$247 million above forecast. The year-to-date
forecast gain by category is displayed below:

Table of Contents
Summary
• YTD Results and the Budget Forecast ............. 1
• State Appropriations Limit ................................. 2
• Truth in Taxation Report ..................................... 2

January Revenues ................................................. 3
This report has been
prepared for the Arizona
Legislature by the Joint
Legislative Budget
Committee Staff on
February 20, 2018.

Monthly Indicators ................................................. 5
Summary of Recent Agency Reports
• ADOA – Report on Motor Vehicle Fleet ......... 8
• Atty General – Internet Crimes Report ........... 8
• Atty General – Legal Settlements .................... 8

• DCS/ECDHB – Joint Report ................................9
• DCS – Monthly Hiring Report ............................9
• DCS – Semi-Annual Progress Report ..............10
• SBE – Proposed Course Changes ...................10
• Governor – Youth Education Success ...........10
• DOR – Data Center Upgrades ........................11
• Supreme Court – State Aid to Courts ............11

January Spending .................................................12
Arizona Economic Trends .................. Appendix A

2

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2018

Summary (Continued)
Table 1

YTD Results By Revenue Category

Sales Tax
Individual Income
Withholding
Payments
Refunds
Subtotal - IIT
Corporate Income
Insurance Premium
Other
Total

YTD %
Growth
5.8%

YTD $
Gain ($ M)
$46

6.2
29.5
2.4
11.1
(12.4)
(0.3)
12.5
7.7%

63
135
11
209
12
(11)
(9)
$247

Given the magnitude of the forecast gain through 7
months, fiscal year-end revenues will most likely
exceed JLBC's January Baseline forecast for FY 2018,
as well as the Executive forecast (which was only $10
million higher than the JLBC forecast). Determining the
ongoing portion of the forecast gain remains
challenging.
As noted above, several factors may account for the
29.5% growth in Individual Income Tax payments. For
example, the new $10,000 SALT federal deduction cap
does not change a taxpayer's 2017 state tax liability.
The cap, however, may have incentivized taxpayers
to shift their estimated payments from January to
December to avoid the 2018 cap. In that
circumstance, those taxpayers' April 2018 tax return
payments may be less than expected. As a result, a
portion of the IIT payment gain may be offset by
forecast shortfalls in the spring.
Nonetheless, at least some portion of the current
$247 million forecast gain is likely ongoing and could
potentially be incorporated into budget
considerations. While the IIT payment growth has
attracted the most attention, the state's core revenue
categories, Sales Tax and Income Tax withholding,
have performed well year-to-date. Through January,
Sales Tax collections are up 5.8% while withholding has
increased 6.2% above the prior year. In combination,
these 2 categories are currently $109 million above
forecast. These categories tend to be more stable
over time and these gains are more likely to be
ongoing.
The amount of any potential forecast revision will
depend on further analysis of revenue results over the
next several months. We will need to monitor not only
the overall size of the state's forecast gain, but also its
relative mix across revenue categories.

As a starting point, however, we currently believe
that a $109 million ongoing revenue adjustment may
be reasonable. This estimate is not an official forecast
revision, but reflects the reality that current revenues
are outpacing the Baseline forecast.
The next official forecast revision will be presented at
the April Finance Advisory Committee meeting,
based on a revised 4-sector consensus revenue
estimate.
Across FY 2018 and FY 2019, this type of possible
adjustment would increase overall revenues by $218
million ($109 million for each year). If that adjustment
is ultimately used in the budget process, however,
that does not equate to $218 million in available
resources for allocation. The JLBC Baseline had a
shortfall of $(20) million in FY 2018 and $(108) million
shortfall in FY 2019. In that context, the adjustment
would bring the General Fund to a $90 million cash
balance at the end of FY 2019.
Even a $90 million projected FY 2019 balance,
however, creates budgetary challenges. A single
Executive proposal, the $100 million increase in K-12
additional assistance, would use all the available
funds prior to considering any other elements of the
Executive Budget.
State Appropriations Limit Report
JLBC Staff is required to annually report by February
15 on how state spending compares to the
constitutional appropriations limit. The Arizona
Constitution limits the appropriation of certain state
revenues to no more than 7.41% of Arizona personal
income. Total FY 2018 state appropriations (both
General and Other Funds) are $17.25 billion, or 5.78%
of personal income. Under the JLBC Baseline,
projected FY 2019 spending is $17.38 billion, which
would be 5.49% of personal income.
Truth in Taxation (TNT Report)
JLBC Staff recently reported the new Truth in Taxation
(TNT) rates for FY 2019, as required by A.R.S. § 41-1276.
Due to the growth in values for new properties being
lower than expected, the cost of the FY 2019 Basic
State Aid formula will be $3.3 million higher than the
JLBC Baseline. The purpose of TNT is to offset the
annual change in the value of existing property
statewide with proportional Qualifying Tax Rate and
State Equalization Tax Rate changes.

3

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2018

January Revenues
Table 2

General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions)

January
Year-to-Date

FY 2018
Collections
$ 1,077.6
$ 5,917.5

Sales Tax collections of $449.0 million were 4.9% above
January 2017 and $2.7 million above the forecast for the
month. Year to date, collections have increased by 5.8%
and are $46.3 million above forecast.
The 5 major categories of the state’s sales tax shown in
Table 3 account for approximately 90% of total
collections. January collections, which reflect December
sales, showed very modest retail growth of 2.8% during the
holiday season. In contrast, restaurant/bar and prime
contracting categories showed strong growth, increasing
year over year by 10.6% and 8.6%, respectively.
Table 3

January
2.8%
8.6%
6.5%
10.6%
1.1%

YTD
4.3%
12.7%
9.4%
6.3%
2.0%

Individual Income Tax net revenues of $632.2 million in
January were $79.1 million more than in the prior year
and $86.7 million above the forecast for the month. Year
to date, revenue has grown 11.1% over the prior year.
As indicated in Table 4, January withholding revenues
increased by 10.1% from last year and were $48.2 million
above the forecast. Collections during the month were
likely helped by an increase in the number of processing
days compared to January 2017. A portion of the
monthly increase may also reflect impacts of increasing
the state minimum wage by $0.50 (to $10.50) on January
1, 2018. Year-to-date withholding collections are 6.2%
above FY 2017.
In addition, the growth in January withholding may have
been helped by employee bonuses. While there is no
specific data on how this impacted withholding
collections, there was anecdotal evidence of employee
bonuses being announced in late December and early
January at companies with a significant employment
presence in Arizona.
January estimated and final payments of $215.9 million
were 22.5% above last year and $29.2 million above the
forecast. Year to date, payments are 29.5% above FY
2017 and $135.2 million above the forecast. As discussed
in the summary section, there are several potential
reasons for the large year-to-date increase in payments,

Difference
From FY 2017
$ 151.0
$ 439.1

such as a recent federal limit placed on State and
Local Tax deductions and strong stock market
growth in 2017. The primary cause of high year-todate payment growth may not be clear until the
April tax season concludes.
January Individual Income Tax refunds totaled
$(10.5) million – this compares to $(10.7) million in
January 2017 and a forecasted amount of $(19.7)
million. Year to date, refunds have led to a $10.9
million revenue increase compared to the enacted
forecast.
Table 4

Sales Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

Retail
Contracting
Use
Restaurant & Bar
Utilities

Difference From
Enacted Forecast
$ 105.2
$ 247.4

Individual Income Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

Withholding
Estimated/Final Payments
Refunds

January
10.1%
22.5%
(1.9)%

YTD
6.2%
29.5%
2.4%

Corporate Income Tax net collections were $8.1
million in January, which was $26.8 million more
than in the prior year and $19.4 million above the
forecast. Year to date, collections are $(22.0) million
below prior year collections and $11.8 million above
the enacted forecast.
Insurance Premium Tax collections of $(0.6) million
in January resulted from refunds processed during
the month. January collections were $(6.9) million
below the prior year and $(9.5) million below the
forecast. Year to date, collections are (0.3)% below
last year.
The Lottery Commission reports that January ticket
sales were $93.9 million, which is $21.0 million, or
28.8%, above sales in January 2017. Ticket revenues
during the month were driven by a high jackpot
available for Powerball and strong Scratcher game
sales. Year-to-date sales are 21.2% above the prior
year. In terms of General Fund collections, year-todate lottery revenues are $24.6 million above the
prior year.
Due to delays in reporting final December revenues
for various revenues sources, DOR has made
technical adjustments to prior month collection
figures. For January, DOR has decreased the
amount of prior General Fund revenue collections
by $(0.1) million, and the adjustment has been
included in the reported year-to-date results.

4
Table 5

General Fund Revenue:

Change from Previous Year and Budget Forecast
January 2018
Current Month

FY 2018 YTD (Seven Months)

Change From
Actual

January 2017

January 2018

Amount

Change from
Baseline Forecast

Percent

Amount

Actual

Percent

January 2017

January 2018

Amount

Baseline Forecast

Percent

Amount

Percent

Taxes
Sales and Use

$449,027,011

$20,775,410

632,238,007

79,054,822

8,134,808

26,836,330

Property

1,870,074

382,449

25.7

Luxury - Tobacco

1,852,560

(63,960)

3,522,793

(114,207)
(6,914,074)

--

Income - Individual
- Corporate

- Liquor
Insurance Premium
Other Taxes
Sub-Total Taxes

(596,330)
958,957

852,788

$1,097,007,881

$120,809,560

24,250,850

24,250,850

4.9 %
14.3
--

$2,746,757
86,650,118
19,395,408

0.6 %
15.9
--

$2,757,686,434

$150,952,570

$46,338,995

1.7 %

3,019,827,909

302,576,286

11.1

209,325,903

7.4

(21,964,248)

(12.4)

11,844,858

8.3

(1,750,224)

(7.9)
(2.4)

154,546,420

1,038,423

124.9

20,392,360

(3.3)

0

0.0

(3.1)

0

0.0

803.2
12.4 %

(9,505,881)
899,380
$101,224,203

5.8 %

780,614

4.0

13,163,130

(61,473)

(0.5)

(324,291)

20,717,082

550,990

2.7

899,237

--

208,030,365

(698,435)

(0.3)

(10,574,140)

(4.8)

--

1,213,119

(145,197)

(10.7)

(593,197)

(32.8)

10.2 %

$6,195,576,819

$431,991,107

7.5 %

$255,167,140

4.5

4.3 %

Other Revenue
Lottery
License, Fees and Permits
Interest

3,452,113

(603,276)

-(14.9)

1,699,732
(963,927)

24,572,194

91.9

6,193,204

13.7

1,664,333

7.4

3,862,713

19.0

271,038

176,981

188.2

4,636

81,626

--

(70,229)

(20.6)

1,588,290

1,649,245

--

1,068,556

205.6

10,865,024

(17,367)

(0.2)

(1,964,559)

(15.3)

Other Miscellaneous

3,917,360

3,721,560

--

918,638

30.6

14,403,449

(6,409,599)

(30.8)

(9,896,800)

(40.7)

0

0

--

0

4,123,673

2,566,332

$37,336,922

$31,666,337

558.4 %

$3,963,447

11.9 %

$118,991,053

$18,287,783

18.2 %

$1,134,344,803

$152,475,897

15.5 %

$105,187,650

10.2 %

$6,314,567,872

$450,278,890

7.7 %

Transfers and Reimbursements
Sub-Total Other Revenue
TOTAL BASE REVENUE

164.8

1,460,660

(97.9)

51,316,237
24,141,881

Sales and Services
Disproportionate Share

(220,211)

7.5
(21.8)

-54.8

0
17,993,424

0
(1,698,759)

-(8.6)

0
(5,894,278)
($7,769,949)
$247,397,191

-(24.7)
(6.1) %
4.1 %

Other Adjustments
Urban Revenue Sharing
One-Time Transfers
Sub-Total Other Adjustments
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE

(56,730,840)
0
(56,730,840)

(1,432,326)
0
(1,432,326)

2.6

0

0.0

--

0

--

2.6 %

0

0.0 %

(397,115,880)
0
(397,115,880)

(10,026,282)

2.6

0

(0.0)

0

--

2.9 %

0

(0.0) %

$247,397,191

4.4 %

(1,191,548) (100.0)
(11,217,830)

$1,077,613,963

$151,043,571

16.3 %

$105,187,650

10.8 %

$5,917,451,992

$439,061,060

8.0 %

$121,124,818

$2,167,713

1.8 %

$49,514

0.0 %

$835,780,527

$27,968,531

3.5 %

Non-General Funds
Highway User Revenue Fund

($4,459,246)

(0.5) %

5

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2018

Monthly Indicators
NATIONAL
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau
of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6% in the
fourth quarter of 2017. This estimate reflects a slow down
from the +3% growth during the prior 2 quarters. The
modest slowdown was primarily due to a decrease in
inventory investment. Declining performance in that
category was partly offset by a pick up in consumption
expenditures, exports, business investment, and
government spending.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence
Index increased by 1.9% to 125.4 in January. The
increase helped the index recover a portion of the (4.3)%
loss incurred during the prior month. The latest reading is
12.4% above the index in January 2017. The increase in
January reflected greater consumer optimism about
near-term economic expectations, partly offset by a
reduced assessment of current conditions. Economists
expect the monthly increase may have represented a
reversal of a temporary decrease in the prior month
caused by the then uncertain outcome of federal tax
law changes.
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau
of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Personal Consumption
Expenditure Price Index (PCEPI) increased 0.1% in
December. Monthly growth was driven by core inflation
(all items less food and energy), which rose 0.2% during
the month. Despite the monthly increase, the index’s
year-over-year growth rate decreased from 1.8% in
November to 1.7% during the month. That rate remains
below the Federal Reserve Bank’s (Fed) 2.0% annual
inflation target. The index for core inflation (all items less
food and energy) was 1.5% above the reading in
December 2016.
Consumer prices, as measured by the U.S. Consumer
Price Index (CPI), increased 0.5% in January and
increased 2.1% above January 2017 prices. The monthly
index increase had a wide variety of positive contributors
including the indexes for gasoline, shelter, apparel,
medical care and food. Core inflation (all items less
food and energy) increased 0.3% for the month, along
with increases in the indexes for motor vehicle insurance
and personal care. The indexes for airline fares and new
vehicles saw decreases for the month.
The Conference Board's U.S. Leading Economic Index
increased 0.6% in December to 107.0 and stands 5.7%
above its December 2016 reading. The Board has
changed the base year of the index from 2010 to 2016.
The strongest positive contributor for the month was
once again the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)

new orders index, followed by the indexes for money
supply and stock prices. The average weekly initial
claims index had a negligible impact on the index,
compared to last month's negative contribution. Of
the index's 10 components, 9 made positive
contributions for the month.
ARIZONA
Housing
Single-family housing construction is increasing. In
December, Arizona’s 12-month total of single-family
building permits was 27,466, or 13.3% more than a year
ago. The comparable single-family permit growth rate
for the entire U.S. was 9.7%.
The 12-month total of multi-family building permits has
been up and down. In December, Arizona’s total of
10,016 multi-family building permits was (12.0)% less
than in 2016. Nationwide multi-family permits were
2.0% more than in 2016.
Tourism
Revenue per available room was $58.69 in December,
which was 5.5% above the amount in December 2016.
Ridership through Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport during the
month was up 1.7% compared to December 2016.
Employment
Due to the annual revision of employment date (also
known as “benchmarking”), January’s employment
and unemployment figures will not be released until the
second week of March. For this reason, this month’s
issue of Monthly Fiscal Highlights does not include these
employment statistics.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases estimates
quarterly for a broader measure of labor
underutilization called the total unemployment rate.
Besides the “regularly” unemployed, the measure also
includes persons who are available to work but
stopped looking for a job (“discouraged workers”), and
persons who had to settle for part-time employment
(“underemployed workers”).
The Arizona rate averaged 9.5% during the 4 quarters
of 2017. This rate is (0.4)% below the reading issued for
the prior period. The state’s 9.5% rate was the ninth
highest of any state. The national average for the
measure was 8.5% during the quarter.
In December, the Average Weekly Hours worked by
individuals in Arizona’s private sector was 34.9 hours.
This workload was the same as the level during the prior
month, as well as 1.5% above the level in December
2016.

6

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2018

Monthly Indicators (Continued)
The Average Hourly Earnings received by private sector
workers was $25.54, which is (0.2)% below the average
in the prior month. Year-over-year growth in earnings
accelerated from 5.2% in November to 6.2% in
December. Year-over-year growth remained above
5.0% for the sixth consecutive month.
State Agency Data
At the beginning of February 2018, the total AHCCCS
caseload was 1.81 million members. Since the federal
health care expansion in January 2014, the overall
AHCCCS population has grown by 550,700 members.
Total monthly enrollment decreased by (33,900) during
January and is (3.3)% lower than a year ago. The
monthly decrease was spread across most populations.
The Traditional and Proposition 204 populations of low
income parents and children comprised the largest part
of the decrease, collectively falling (22,400), or (1.8)%.
Laws 2016, Chapter 112 reopened enrollment in
KidsCare program in September 1, 2016. Following the
enrollment freeze in January 2010, the KidsCare
caseload had dropped to 500 members by August
2016. Through February 1, 2018, enrollment in the
program was 23,700, or (1,100) less than the prior
month’s enrollment.
The state also opted to expand adult Medicaid
coverage to 133% of FPL. Their enrollment decreased
by (2,100) in January and now totals 78,200 individuals.
Enrollment is (4.5)% lower than a year ago. The federal
share of this population's cost decreased from 95% to
94% in January 2018.
There were 15,927 TANF recipients in the state in
January, representing a (5.7)% monthly caseload
decrease from December. The year-over-year number
of TANF recipients has declined by (14.3)%. The
statutory lifetime limit on cash assistance is 24 months.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP),
formerly known as Food Stamps, provides assistance to
low-income households to purchase food. In January,
865,751 people received food stamp assistance in the
state, representing a (2.0)% decrease over December
caseloads. Compared to January caseloads last year,
the level of food stamp participation has declined by
(8.0)%.
The inmate population was 41,763 as of January 31,
2017. This is a (0.4)% decrease since December, and a
(1.1)% decrease since last January.

Based on information the Department of Child Safety
provided for December 2017, reports of child
maltreatment totaled 47,424 over the last 12 months,
a decrease of (1.8)% over the prior year. There were
15,360 children in out-of-home care as of November
2017, or (11.8)% less than in November
2016. Compared to the prior month, the number of
out-of-home children decreased by (2.6)%.
According to the most recent information from the
Administrative Office of the Courts, the Maricopa
County probation caseload was 28,286 as of
December 2017. This was an increase of 3 above the
prior month, and a 487 increase since last December.
In addition, the state’s non-Maricopa County
probation caseload was 19,076. This was a decrease
of (74) below the prior month, and a 141 increase
since last December. These figures represent standard
and intensive probation caseloads, including both
adult and juvenile probation.

7

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2018
Table 6

MONTHLY INDICATORS

Indicator
Arizona
Employment
- Regular Unemployment Rate
- Total Unemployment Rate (discouraged/underemployed)
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Unemployment Insurance Recipients
- Non-Farm Employment - Total
Manufacturing
Construction
- Average Weekly Hours, Private Sector
- Average Hourly Earnings, Private Sector
Sales
- Retail Taxable Sales
Motor Vehicles/Misc. Auto
Furniture/Home Furnishings
Building Material/Lawn & Garden
Building
- Residential Building Permits (12-month avg)
Single-family
Multi-family
- Maricopa County/Other, Home Sales (ARMLS)
Single-Family (Pending Sales)
- Maricopa County/Other, Median Home Price (ARMLS)
Single-Family (Pending Sales)
- Phoenix S&P/C Home Price Index (2000 = 100)
- Maricopa Pending Foreclosures
- Greater Phoenix Total Housing Inventory, (ARMLS)
Tourism
- Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers
- National Park Visitors
- State Park Visitors
- Revenue Per Available Hotel Room
General Measures
- Arizona Leading Index -- 6 month projected growth
- Arizona Personal Income
- Arizona Population
- State Debt Rating
Standards & Poor’s/Moody’s
Outlook
Agency Measures
- AHCCCS Recipients
Acute Care Traditional
Prop 204 Childless Adults
Other Prop 204
Adult Expansion
Kids Care I
Long-Term Care – Elderly & DD
Emergency Services
- Department of Child Safety (DCS)
Annual Reports of Child Maltreatment (12-month total)
DCS Out-of-Home Children
Filled Caseworkers (1406 Budgeted)
- ADC Inmate Growth
- Department of Economic Security
- TANF Recipients
- SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients
- Judiciary Probation Caseload
Non-Maricopa
Maricopa County
United States
- Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2009 dollars, SAAR)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Leading Indicators Index (2016 = 100)
- Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100)
- Personal Consumption Price Index (2009 = 100)

Change From
Prior Period

Change From
Prior Year

Time Period

Current Value

December
4th Q 2017
December
December
December
December
December
December
December

4.5%
9.5%
14,339
20,478
2,815,500
167,700
142,500
34.9
$25.54

0.2%
(0.4)%
(7.7)%
(10.5)%
0.2%
1.8%
0.4%
0.0%
(0.2)%

(0.5)%
(1.3)%
(7.8)%
(13.6)%
1.5%
3.5%
6.3%
1.5%
6.2%

April
April
April

$1,117 million
$342.9 million
$463.6 million

15.3%
4.1%
26.6%

5.4%
4.3%
9.3%

December
December

27,466
10,016

0.4%
(6.6)%

13.3%
(12.0)%

December

3,736

(29.3)%

(31.3)%

December
November
December
December

$265,550
173.46
3,048
20,009

0.2%
(0.1)%
5.5%
(8.4)%

8.4%
5.6%
(7.9)%
(11.2)%

December
November
December
December

3,721,252
924,653
176,182
$58.69

3.4%
(28.6)%
(22.0)%
(21.1)%

1.7%
18.8%
20.1%
5.5%

December
3rd Q 2017
July 2017

0.6%
$290.2 billion
7,016,270

(5.9)%
0.7%
N/A

(2.3)%
2.4%
1.6%

May
May

AA / Aa2
Stable

N/A
N/A

N/A
N/A

February 1st

1,808,856
1,039,590
307,730
183,234
78,162
23,656
61,055
115,429

(1.8)%
(1.7)%
(1.7)%
(2.6)%
(2.7)%
(4.5)%
0.1%
(2.6)%

(3.3)%
(5.1)%
(3.3)%
0.6%
(4.5)%
71.8%
3.6%
(4.2)%

December
November
January
January

47,424
15,360
1,308
41,763

(0.3)%
(2.6)%
(13)
(0.4)%

(1.8)%
(11.8)%
(28)
(1.1)%

January
January

15,927
865,751

(5.7)%
(2.0)%

December
December

19,076
28,286

4th Q, 2017 (1st
Estimate)
January
December
January
December

(74)
3

(14.3)%
(8.0)%
141
487

$17.3 trillion

2.5%

2.6%

125.4
107.0
249.3
113.6

1.9%
0.6%
0.5%
0.1%

12.4%
5.7%
2.1%
1.7%

8

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2018

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
Arizona Department of Administration – Report on
Motor Vehicle Fleet – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 41-803R,
the Arizona Department of Administration reported
on the FY 2017 year-end inventory of state-owned
alternative fuel vehicles. Of the 12,286 state
vehicles, 5,169 or 42% are subject to the alternative
fuel vehicle requirements. (Law enforcement and
certain other vehicles are exempt.)
Of the 5,169 state vehicles subject to the alternative
fuel vehicle requirements, 3,749, or 73% are
alternative fuel vehicles. This percentage is the
same as the prior year and exceeds the 40% target
established by statute. Statute also requires 90% of
the state vehicles in Maricopa County to be
capable of using alternative fuels. The state reports
that 81% of its Maricopa County vehicles are
alternative fuel vehicles. This is a decrease of (1)%
from the prior year.
A.R.S. § 41-803G additionally requires that 75% of
new vehicle purchases in Maricopa and Pima
Counties be capable of using alternative fuels for
models year 2001 or later. Of the 1,522 eligible
vehicles purchased in these counties in 2017, 92%
were capable of using alternative fuels.
Notwithstanding the number of vehicles capable of
using alternative fuel, only 1.7% of the state fleet’s
fuel budget was spent on alternative fuels.
(Rebecca Perrera)
Attorney General – Quarterly Report on Internet
Crimes Against Children Enforcement Fund
Expenditures – A.R.S. § 41-199 requires the Attorney
General (AG) to report quarterly on expenditures
from the Internet Crimes Against Children (ICAC)
Enforcement Fund and progress made towards
ICAC goals. The ICAC Enforcement Fund receives
an annual deposit of $900,000 in revenues from
lottery games that are sold from a vending machine
in age-restricted areas. Monies in the fund are
utilized to support the ICAC Task Force, housed
within the Phoenix Police Department, which works
with federal, state, and local law enforcement to
investigate technology-facilitated sexual
exploitation of children.
Through the second quarter of FY 2018, $225,000 in
lottery revenues have been deposited into the ICAC
Enforcement Fund. A total of $133,100 was
expended in the second quarter of FY 2018 to help
pay for the operating costs of the ICAC Task Force.
These expenditures are in addition to $295,500
expended in the previous quarter, bringing total FY
2018 expenditures to $428,600.

The FY 2018 expenditure plan for the ICAC
Enforcement Fund allocates monies to fund 4
positions within the Phoenix Police Department;
equipment costs including cameras, computers,
subscriptions to forensic tools, and other information
technology equipment; and law enforcement
training.
As of December 31, 2017, the ICAC Enforcement
Fund had a fund balance of $1,864,300 and
encumbrances of $766,900. (Sam Beres)
Attorney General – Quarterly Reports on Legal
Settlements – Statute requires the Attorney General
(AG) to report quarterly to the JLBC on the receipts
to, and disbursements from, the Antitrust
Enforcement Revolving Fund, the Consumer
Protection - Consumer Fraud (CPCF) Revolving Fund
and the Consumer Restitution and Remediation
Revolving Fund (including its 2 subaccounts), as well
as deposits made to the General Fund.
In the second quarter of FY 2018, the AG deposited a
total of $853,400 into various consumer accounts. Of
that amount, $721,400 was deposited into the
Antitrust Enforcement Revolving Fund, $46,900 was
deposited into the CPCF Revolving Fund, $58,900 into
the Consumer Restitution Subaccount, and $26,200
into the Consumer Remediation Subaccount. No
monies were deposited into the General Fund this
quarter. Only the $26,200 deposit to the Consumer
Remediation Subaccount requires JLBC review prior
to expenditure.
Deposits to the Antitrust Enforcement Revolving Fund
The AG deposited $721,400 in the second quarter of
FY 2018 to the appropriated Antitrust Enforcement
Revolving Fund to pay for antitrust enforcement
expenses undertaken by the AG. This amount was
derived from legal settlement with Cephalon, Inc.,
which the AG had accused of engaging in illegal
practices to protect the monopoly status of its sleep
disorder drug Provigil. The AG's investigation
determined that Cephalon's practices delayed the
release time of generic drugs intended to compete
with Provigil.
Deposits to the CPCF Revolving Fund
The AG deposited $46,900 in the second quarter of
FY 2018 to the appropriated CPCF Revolving Fund,
which may be used for any purpose permitted by
statute. This amount was derived from small legal
settlements under $250,000 in value.
Deposits to the Consumer Restitution Subaccount
The AG deposited $58,900 in the second quarter of
FY 2018 to the non-appropriated Consumer

9

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2018

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
Restitution Subaccount to compensate specific entities
for economic loss resulting from consumer fraud. The
full amount of these deposits came from small legal
settlements under $250,000 in value and interest
income.
Deposits to the Consumer Remediation Subaccount
The AG deposited $26,200 of interest income in the
second quarter of FY 2018 to the partially-appropriated
Consumer Remediation Subaccount to rectify
violations of consumer protection laws. An
expenditure plan must be reviewed by the JLBC before
any of these funds are spent from this account. That
review has not yet occurred. (Sam Beres)
Department of Child Safety – DCS/ECDHB Joint Report –
Pursuant to a provision in the FY 2018 Human Services
Budget Reconciliation Bill (Laws 2017, Chapter 311), the
Department of Child Safety (DCS) and the Early
Childhood Development and Health Board (ECDHB)
reported on the level of coordination among DCS,
ECDHB, and community groups to promote the wellbeing of children and families that are identified in
reports of abuse or neglect. The systemic collaborative
efforts include:
•

•

Court Teams Program: ECDHB funds teams that
are intended to improve how the courts, child
welfare, and child serving organizations work
together to protect infants and toddlers in the child
welfare system from further harm. The agencies
estimate that a total of 6,000 infants and toddlers
were impacted by the court teams in FY 2017.
Child Care Funding and Quality Improvement:
ECDHB provided $30.0 million of matching dollars
to draw down $37.6 million of matching federal
monies in federal fiscal year (FFY) 2017. These
monies provide child care scholarships to lowincome families to reduce instances of abuse or
neglect associated with children being cared for in
unsafe environments. ECDHB also reports that the
number of child care providers with at least a 3star quality rating increased from 25% in FY 2013 to

(Continued)

71% in FY 2017, which it attributes to its Quality First
initiative.
•

Early Childhood Mental Health Consultations
(ECMHC): ECDHB operates the ECMHC program,
which provides children with socio-emotional and
behavioral issues, including DCS-involved children,
with consultation from trained mental health
professionals to reduce the incidence of poor
classroom behaviors and lower expulsion rates
from preschool and child care. The program also
provides training to teachers of children with
socio-emotional or behavioral issues. In FY 2017,
433 child and preschool providers received a
consultation from the program in an effort to
prevent child expulsions and 199 children were
referred to services to address their behavioral
health needs.

Aside from these system-level collaborations, DCS and
ECDHB collaborate in other programs as well. For
example, the Healthy Families Arizona program, which
is a home visitation program for families during the first
5 years of a child’s life, is funded jointly by ECDHB,
DCS, and the Department of Health Services (DHS). In
FY 2017, 4,460 families were served statewide. (Patrick
Moran)
Department of Child Safety – Monthly Report on Hiring
– Pursuant to a FY 2018 General Appropriation Act
footnote, the Department of Child Safety (DCS)
reported on its progress in hiring and retaining child
safety staff through January 2018. (See Table 7
below.)
The number of direct line child safety staff
(caseworkers, caseworkers in training, caseworkers
awaiting training and hotline staff) was 1,308 in
January, or (98) fewer staff than the number of funded
positions. Most of the difference between funded
positions and filled positions was driven by lower-thanbudgeted staffing of caseworkers, which was partly

Table 7
DCS Filled FTE Positions as of January 2018
Caseworkers
Hotline Staff
Staff in Training
Subtotal - Direct Line
Subtotal - Non-Direct Line Staff
Grand Total 1/

____________
1/ Excludes 276.2 Attorney General Staff.

Funded
1,190
76
140
1,406
1,511
2,917

January
1,056
66
186
1,308
1,403
2,711

Difference
(134)
(10)
46
(98)
(108)
(206)

10

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2018

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
offset by higher-than-budgeted staff in training. Total
direct line staff decreased by (13) since December.
There were also 1,403 non-direct line child safety staff in
January, or (108) fewer staff than the funded staffing
level. The budgeted staffing level is 1,511 excluding
Attorney General positions. Total non-direct line positions
increased by 3 compared to December. (Patrick Moran)
Department of Child Safety (DCS) – Semi-Annual Progress
Report – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 8-818, DCS has submitted its
semi-annual financial and program accountability report
covering the period of July 2017 through December 2017.
The contents of this report, covering the first 6 months of
FY 2018, are summarized below.
•

•

•

•
•

The Training Academy had 331 new caseworkers in
training as of December 2017. During the time
period from July 2017 to December 2017, 342
caseworkers graduated from the Training Academy,
or 113 more graduates than in the previous 6-month
period. Employee satisfaction with the training
academy was 4.26 on a five-point scale.
Caseworker workload was 22% above the workload
standard, compared to 36% in December of last
year (see Table 8). Caseworker turnover averaged
approximately 35% over the 6-month period.
The number of dependency cases that were denied
or dismissed by the courts was 0.4%. The percent of
Office of Administrative Hearings decisions affirming
DCS case findings was 85.72%. The percent of
complaints validated by the Ombudsman was
24.74%.
The number of children in licensed foster homes,
kinship care, or other family-style placements was
11,833 as of December 2017.
The number of congregate care placements was
2,267. There were 568 of these children in shelter
care for at least 3 weeks. As of December 2017,
there were 2 children aged 0-3 in shelter care and
the number of children age 0 to 6 in group homes
declined from 68 in June 2017 to 55. (Patrick Moran)

Table 8

Investigations
In-Home Cases
Out-of-Home Children
Percent Above Workload
Standard
Total Case-Carrying
Caseworkers
Caseworkers Required by
Standard

State Board of Education – Report on Proposed
Changes to Minimum Course of Study and
Competency Requirements – Pursuant to A.R.S. §
15-203A12 and 13, the State Board of Education
(SBE) must report on the fiscal impact of any
proposed changes to the minimum course of study
or competency requirements for the promotion of
students from grades 3, 8, and 12.
Based on input from the Arizona Department of
Education (ADE) and school district and charter
representatives, SBE anticipates no fiscal impact
resulting from the following proposed changes:
•

•

•

•
•

Re-naming the "Foreign or native American
Language" subject area to "World and Native
Languages’ subject and making it optional
rather than mandatory.
Including computer science, economics, career
and technical education (CTE), or science and
arts classes as options for mathematics credit in
place of Algebra II.
Eliminate a requirement that special education
courses be notated on a student's transcript (to
comply with federal law related to student
privacy).
Requiring social studies instruction to include
civics.
Additional labeling/technical changes.

Regarding the foreign language requirement, SBE
reports that districts have expressed difficulty in filling
teacher positions for second languages and prefer
to focus more on English language arts,
mathematics, and science. (Matt Beienburg)
Office of the Governor – Report on Donations to the
Youth Education Success Fund – Pursuant to Laws
2016, Chapter 248, the Office of the Governor
reported the receipt of $172,020 in philanthropic
donations to the Youth Education Success Fund to
improve education outcomes for foster youth.

Caseworker Workload
Dec.
2008
15
28
24

Dec.
2009
15
27
23

Dec.
2010
15
30
25

Dec.
2011
15
32
27

Dec.
2012
15
33
36

Dec.
2013
16
47
25

Dec.
2014
16
42
29

Dec.
2015
25
43
30

Dec.
2016
18
39
28

Dec.
2017
17
33
25

9%

9%

15%

22%

48%

28%

37%

54%

36%

22%

818

761

764

781

750

983

1,019

953

975

975

890

829

879

955

1,107

1,263

1,397

1,466

1,329

1,185

11

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2018

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
Chapter 248 appropriates $500,000 to the Office of the
Governor to be used as matching funds for philanthropic
donations to the Youth Education Success Fund,
provided that an accounting of the donations be made
to the JLBC by the Office of the Governor. The
donations were determined to have qualified for
matching funds. As a result, the reported donations will
be matched with $172,020 in General Fund monies.
After including donations from earlier this year, an
additional $177,980 in General Fund monies is available
to match additional donations received. The donations
and General Fund matching monies are in addition to
the $1,000,000 appropriation from the General Fund for
deposit in the Youth Education Success Fund also
provided in Chapter 248. (Patrick Moran)
Arizona Department of Revenue – Report on Data
Center Equipment Upgrade – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 18104A1(g), the Department of Revenue (DOR) submitted
a quarterly report from Gartner Inc. on the status of the
department's data center equipment upgrade project.
Gartner Inc. reported that, in addition to receiving a
favorable review of phase 2 of the project from the
Committee, DOR engaged in the following activities
during the reporting period:
•
Troubleshooting the jumbo frame networking.
•
Installing new fiber cabling at the Monroe Street
data center.
•
Planning for application migration.
•
Working on the final stages of dependency
mapping. (Sam Beres)
Supreme Court – Report on Criminal Case Proceedings,
Enforcement of Court Orders, and State Aid to Courts
Fund Expenditures – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 12-102.01D, the
Supreme Court reported to the JLBC on the progress of
criminal case processing projects and the enforcement
of court orders including the collection of court ordered
fees, fines, penalties, sanctions and forfeitures.
Additionally, pursuant to A.R.S. § 12-102.02D, the
Supreme Court reported to the JLBC on the expenditure
of monies from the State Aid to the Courts Fund for the
prior fiscal year and the progress made in improving
criminal case processing.
Since 2003, the Supreme Court has contracted with an
outside vendor to increase compliance with court
orders, resulting in total collections of $44.9 million from
backlogged cases in FY 2017, or (3.6)% below FY 2016.
Additionally, the Supreme Court utilizes a debt setoff
program to match outstanding criminal fines or fees to
outstanding tax and governmental liabilities. Tax and
lottery interceptions in the debt setoff program were
$14.3 million in FY 2017, or (4.7)% below FY 2016.

Expenditures from the State Aid to the Courts Fund
were $2.9 million in FY 2017. These monies were
disbursed to Superior and Justice Courts for the
processing of criminal cases.
The Supreme Court reported that criminal case
processing was enhanced by using State Aid to the
Courts Fund monies for computer equipment, video
conferencing equipment, case management
systems, early resolution and deferred incarceration
programs, and staff. (Geoffrey Paulsen)

12

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2018

January Spending
January 2018 General Fund spending was $786.6
million, which is an increase of $22.6 million above
January 2017. (See Tables 9 & 10).
•

Year-to-date, Department of Education (ADE)
spending has increased by $40.2 million
compared to the prior year.

•

School Facilities Board spending has increased by
$90.3 million so far during FY 2018 compared to
the prior year. The agency received additional
funding for the construction of 6 schools in the
FY 2018 budget.

Table 9
General Fund Spending ($ in Millions)
YTD Change

Change From
Jan 18

Jan 17

Year-to-Date

from FY 17

AHCCCS

154.9

(39.0)

1,123.9

59.5

Corrections

118.5

34.5

660.8

56.6

Child Safety

32.7

(11.9)

219.1

(13.6)

Agency

Economic Security

12.1

6.6

516.6

48.0

Education

273.8

(25.1)

2,845.2

40.2

Health Serv ices

8.9

2.0

56.5

2.6

Public Safety

17.2

0.7

65.8

4.4

School Facilities Board

50.6

50.4

261.5

90.3

Univ ersities

58.1

(2.6)

412.6

12.5

Leaseback Debt Serv ice

0.0

0.0

84.1

(0.0)

Other

59.8

7.0

362.6

8.3

Total

786.6

22.6

6,608.7

308.8

13

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2018

Table 10

General Fund Spending
($ in Thousands)
Agency

January 18

Change from
January 17

Year-to-Date

YTD Change
from FY 17

Dept. of Admin./Automation Projects Fund
ADOA – Sale/Leaseback Debt Service
Office of Administrative Hearings
Commission of African-American Affairs
Department of Agriculture
AHCCCS
Attorney General
State Board of Charter Schools
Department of Child Safety

2,000.6
134.6
13.6
1,051.6
154,856.6
2,429.9
114.3
32,741.5

(1,613.3)
40.7
5.4
308.7
(38,958.1)
836.8
42.5
(11,874.2)

24,383.9
84,115.1
590.9
82.1
5,961.9
1,123,859.4
15,000.4
631.0
219,088.9

(1,583.9)
(2.3)
67.8
16.0
446.5
59,544.2
1,629.8
41.6
(13,571.1)

AZ Commerce Authority
Community Colleges
Corporation Commission
Department of Corrections
County Funding
AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind
Office of Economic Opportunity
Department of Economic Security
State Board of Education
Department of Education
DEMA
DEQ – WQARF
Office of Equal Opportunity
State Board of Equalization
Board of Executive Clemency
Department of Financial Institutions
Department of Fire, Bldg and Life Safety
Department of Forestry and Fire Management
Department of Gaming
Governor/OSPB
Department of Health Services
Arizona Historical Society
Prescott Historical Society of AZ
Department of Housing
Independent Redistricting Comm.
Department of Insurance
Judiciary
Supreme/Superior Court
Court of Appeals
Department of Juvenile Corrections

1,791.7
12,721.8
76.6
118,518.6
3,788.8
49.5
12,114.5
59.7
273,753.6
481.8
19.4
35.2
84.1
237.7
1,046.7
1,558.1
8,911.7
265.6
81.4
(2.9)
0.0
643.1

(300.0)
(919.3)
32.8
34,452.8
2,646.6
49.5
6,615.8
(11.9)
(25,076.9)
(497.4)
(7.9)
12.7
27.3
24.5
409.3
(75.0)
791.3
2,047.1
(88.2)
19.9
(71.2)
(83.5)
317.4

10,900.2
40,625.0
1,350.5
660,823.6
15,650.7
14,826.6
295.8
516,617.8
638.7
2,845,180.6
5,982.2
2,823.6
115.0
367.1
593.0
1,216.8
6,180.8
1,779.5
7,462.3
56,538.2
1,499.3
502.8
246.0
0.8
3,322.8

(300.0)
1,081.6
775.2
56,610.3
1,650.2
942.1
(442.4)
47,960.0
85.2
40,171.6
336.4
(9.5)
(14.7)
130.7
(445.6)
2.4
2,195.3
(75.0)
1,665.9
2,574.5
(488.4)
36.0
(274.6)
(717.2)
521.4

10,082.8
1,626.9
3,302.4

405.9
593.7
968.9

58,067.6
8,690.6
13,016.8

1,250.7
725.7
(616.7)

14

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2018

Table 10 (Continued)

Agency
State Land Department
Legislature
Auditor General
House of Representatives
Joint Legislative Budget Comm.
Legislative Council
Senate
Mine Inspector
Nav. Streams & Adjudication
Phoenix Convention Center
Comm. for Postsecondary Ed.
Department of Public Safety
Public Safety Personnel Retirement System
Radiation Regulatory Agency
Real Estate Department
Department of Revenue
School Facilities Board
Secretary of State
Tax Appeals Board
Office of Tourism
Department of Transportation
Governor's Office on Tribal Relations
Universities
Board of Regents
Arizona State University
Northern Arizona University
University of Arizona
Department of Veteran Services
Department of Water Resources
Department of Weights & Measures
Other - State Treasurer/JP Salaries
Other - ADOT Capital
Other
Total

January 18
1,031.4

Change from
January 17
333.2

2,390.2
1,650.6
253.3
656.5
1,107.1
120.6
12.1
823.4
17,220.5
23.8
258.4
2,444.4
50,569.5
1,450.1
45.4
1,422.4
0.9
2.1
22.7
26,688.2
9,051.1
22,384.2
609.3
1,555.7
183.5
62.5
786,635.4

Year-to-Date

YTD Change
from FY 17

6,972.4

811.5

923.9
577.9
59.2
30.8
391.9
45.1
3.8
127.7
662.4
(176.2)
94.3
640.4
50,364.8
(1,149.2)
27.2
142.2
0.9
(4.4)

13,190.5
8,318.5
1,496.5
3,951.4
5,496.7
725.9
78.6
22,499.0
1,646.8
65,812.3
6,000.0
646.6
1,575.9
17,453.3
261,536.1
9,393.5
181.9
6,400.8
29.0
16.3

1,938.2
979.9
148.0
(86.6)
521.5
65.6
4.0
2,050.0
254.8
4,440.4
(581.4)
21.4
364.9
90,337.0
(9,504.1)
29.2
213.6
28.3
(19.2)

(6,345.8)
2,020.2
614.7
1,072.6
138.7
732.7
(0.8)
(130.4)
314.2
22,588.9

5,559.4
186,817.7
63,357.5
156,903.5
3,369.8
9,474.1
(1.0)
670.8
125.0
6,608,731.6

(13,716.1)
14,092.5
4,352.4
7,722.7
71.3
3,405.6
(1.8)
(21.1)
(1,500.0)
425.0
308,771.4

JLBC
Jul-16

6.2% Y/Y Growth
(December 2017)

Jan 09

3

JLBC
100%

Jul 05
Jul 06

Jul 15
Jul 16
Jul 17

Jan 17

35,000

Jan 16

40,000

Jul 14

8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%

Jan 15

2,300

Jan 14

Jan 01
Jul 01
Jan 02
Jul 02
Jan 03
Jul 03
Jan 04
Jul 04
Jan 05
Jul 05
Jan 06
Jul 06
Jan 07
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 14
Jan 15
Jul 15
Jan 16
Jul 16
Jan 17
Jul 17

Thousands of Jobs
2,400

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jan 10

Jul 09

Jan 09

Jul 08

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jan 07

$20

Jan 06

$25.54 / Hour
(December 2017)

Jul 04

$23

Jan 05

$24

Jul 03

$25

Jan 04

$27

Jul 02

Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector

Jan 03

JLBC

Jan 02

1

Jan 01
Jul 01
Jan 02
Jul 02
Jan 03
Jul 03
Jan 04
Jul 04
Jan 05
Jul 05
Jan 06
Jul 06
Jan 07
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 14
Jan 15
Jul 15
Jan 16
Jul 16
Jan 17
Jul 17

2……Total Non-Farm Employment
3……Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector
4……Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
5……State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
6……State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting
Category
7……Residential Building Permits
Year Over Year Growth (%)

Page:

Jul 01

$26

Total Monthly Claims

February 2018
Appendix A

Jan 01
Jul 01
Jan 02
Jul 02
Jan 03
Jul 03
Jan 04
Jul 04
Jan 05
Jul 05
Jan 06
Jul 06
Jan 07
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 14
Jan 15
Jul 15
Jan 16
Jul 16
Jan 17
Jul 17

$19

Jan 01

Jul-17

Jan-17

Jul-16

Jan-16

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 11

July 10

Jan 10

July 09

Year Over Year Growth (%)

Jul-17

Jan-17

Jan 08
July 08

$21

Jul-15

Jan 07
July 07

$ / Hour
$22

Jan-16

12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%

Jan-15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 11

July 10

Jan 10

July 09

Jan 09

July 08

Jan 08

July 07

Jan 07

Year Over Year Growth (%)

Arizona Economic Trends

Total Non-Farm Employment

2,900

2,800

2,700

2,600

2,500

$22.73 / Hour
(Octoberjobs
2014)
2,815,500
(December 2017)

2,200

2,100

1.5% Y/Y Growth
(December 2017)

2

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

45,000

30,000

14,339 Claims
(December 2017)

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000
5,000

150%

(7.8)% Y/Y Growth
(December 2017)

50%

0%

-50%

4

Jan 01
Jul 01
Jan 02
Jul 02
Jan 03
Jul 03
Jan 04
Jul 04
Jan 05
Jul 05
Jan 06
Jul 06
Jan 07
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 14
Jan 15
Jul 15
Jan 16
Jul 16
Jan 17
Jul 17

Building Permits

JLBC
Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

60,000

50,000

12-Month Moving Sum
Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 11

July 10

Jan 10

July 09

Jan 09

July 08

Jan 08

July 07

Jul 14

Single Family Unit
Multi-Family Unit

Jul 16

* January 2014 estimate adjusted downward by $30 million to reflect one-time
category shift.

2.8% Y/Y Growth
(January 2018)

5

Residential Building Permits

100,000

90,000

80,000

70,000

- 27,466 Permits

40,000

- 10,016 Permits
(December 2017)

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

7

JLBC
Jan 08

Jan 09

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

Jan 18

Jul 17

Jan 17

Jul 16

Jan 16

Jan 07

Jan 08

Jan 18

Jul 17

Jan 17

Jul 16

Jan 16

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 11

July 10

Jan 10

July 09

Jan 09

July 08

$ in Millions
$50

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 11

July 10

Jan 10

July 09

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
July 07

$100

July 06

$257.7 million
(January 2018)

July 08

Jul 17
Jan 18

$175

July 07

Jul 16
Jan 17

$200

Jan 07

Jul 15
Jan 16

$ in Millions
$225

July 06

Year Over Year Growth (%)

Jan 18

Jul 17

Jan 17

Jul 14
Jan 15

$125

Jan 16

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 11

July 10

Jan 10

July 09

Jan 09

July 08

Jan 08

July 07

Jan 07

July 06

* Jan 14

20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
* Jan 14

JLBC
Jan 07

July 06

Year Over Year Growth (%)

State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting Category

$250
$100

$75

$40.9 million
(January 2018)

$150
$25

$0

8.6% Y/Y Growth
(January 2018)

6