JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights
1716 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Phone:
(602) 926-5491
Fax:
(602) 926-5416

www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

" Year-to-date,
…General
Fund revenues
are 3.5%
above the
prior year and
are $56.9
million above

November 2016

Summary
October 2016 General Fund revenues were
$740.8 million, which represents an increase of
2.3% above the prior year. Collections during
October were $33.4 million above the
enacted budget forecast.

Year-to-date, excluding Urban Revenue
Sharing and one-time fund transfers, General
Fund revenues are 3.5% above the prior year
and are $56.9 million above the enacted
forecast.

Continuing a trend seen in prior months, the
Sales Tax posted moderate growth, while the
Corporate Income Tax category saw a
double digit percentage decline for the third
month so far during FY 2017.

In comparison to revenue collections of $740.8
million, October 2016 spending was $699.9
million, which is an increase of $5.5 million from
the prior year.

In contrast, Individual Income Tax had the
strongest growth rate of the state's large
revenue categories. Collections increased by
14.2% and were $29.2 million above forecast.
The performance of the Individual Income Tax
was the result of several factors, one of which
was a substantial increase in withholding
revenues. During October, withholding grew
by 13.5%, bringing the year-to-date growth
rate to 8.4% above the prior year.
The year-to-date growth in withholding was
helped by 2 factors: 1) Due to technical
reasons, DOR underreported withholding
receipts during July – March in FY 2016, which
artificially lowered the withholding amount
reported in the beginning of FY 2016; 2) The
state's employment growth has remained
largely steady at approximately 3% over the
past year.

Fiscal year-to-date, General Fund revenues of
$3.01 billion have been offset by $4.32 billion of
expenditures.
The operating fund balance consists of the
General Fund and certain dedicated funds.
The operating balance as of mid-November
2016 is $1.38 billion, while the state's Budget
Stabilization Fund has a current balance
$453.0 million.
ATRA Outlook Conference
At the annual Arizona Tax Research Association
Outlook Conference, JLBC Staff presented a
Revenue and Budget Update which
summarized the most recent revenue and
spending projections, along with fiscal issues for
the upcoming Legislative session.

the enacted

Table of Contents

forecast.”
Summary

This report has been
prepared for the Arizona
Legislature by the Joint
Legislative Budget
Committee Staff on
November 21, 2016.

• ATRA Outlook Conference ............................... 1

• ADE – Aggregate Expenditure Limit ................ 8

October Revenues ................................................. 2

• DHS – IGA/ISA Fund Report ............................... 8

Monthly Indicators.................................................. 4

• JLBC Staff – Agency Relocation Expenses ..... 8

Summary of Recent Agency Reports

• DOR – Income Tax Fraud Prevention .............. 9

• ADOA – Administrative Adjustments ............... 7

• Supreme Court – Probation Services............... 9

• AHCCCS – SAVE Verification Program ........... 7

• Universities – Research Income Report ........... 9

• Attorney General – ISA Fund Reserve ............. 7

• Veteran's Services – Capital Projects ............ 10

• DCS – Monthly Hiring Report ............................. 7

October Spending ................................................ 10

• ADC – Transition Release Program Report ..... 8

Arizona Economic Trends...................Appendix A

2

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – NOVEMBER 2016

October Revenues
Table 1

General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions)

October
Year-to-Date

FY 2017
Collections
$ 740.8
$ 3,018.3

Sales Tax collections of $368.5 million were 4.3% above
October of last year and $4.3 million above the forecast
for the month. Year-to-date, Sales Tax revenues have
increased by 3.5% and are $8.0 million above forecast.
Table 2 below provides additional information on the
major categories of the state’s sales tax, which together
account for approximately 90% of total collections.
Table 2

Sales Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

Retail
Contracting
Use
Restaurant & Bar
Utilities

October
2.0%
6.7%
25.1%
9.0%
(2.9)%

YTD
3.9%
4.0%
(0.1)%
9.0%
0.8%

Individual Income Tax net revenues of $364.3 million in
October were $45.2 million more than the prior year and
$29.2 million above forecast for the month. Year-to-date,
revenue has grown 6.9% over the prior year.
As indicated in Table 3, withholding increased by 13.5%
above last year and was $12.0 million above the
forecast. The monthly increase was, in part, the result of
an additional major processing day compared to
October of 2015. Year-to-date withholding collections
are 8.4% above FY 2016.
October estimated and final payments of $59.4 million
were (22.6)% below last year and $(19.9) million below
the forecast. The monthly decrease in payments may
reflect the one-time nature of final payments received in
October 2015 from taxpayers that took extensions for
filing their 2014 returns. Year to date, payments are
(9.3)% below those collected during the same period of
FY 2016.
October Individual Income Tax refunds totaled $(38.8)
million – this compares to $(60.5) million in October 2015
and a forecasted amount of $(75.9) million. The reasons
for the large monthly decrease in refunds are not well
understood, but may partly reflect timing issues for
processing returns of taxpayers that received extensions
on their 2015 returns. The amount of refunds which
posted in the first week of November were higher than
usual, which suggests at least a modest delay in
processing. Year-to-date refunds have led to a $33.9
million gain compared to the enacted forecast.

Difference From
Budget Forecast
$
33.4
$
56.9

Difference
From FY 2016
$
16.6
$
92.2

Table 3

Individual Income Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year
October
YTD
Withholding
13.5%
8.4%
Estimated/Final Payments
(22.6)%
(9.3)%
Refunds
(35.9)%
(14.7)%
Corporate Income Tax net collections were $30.7 million
in October, which was $(14.7) million less than in the
prior year and $(0.9) million below the forecast. Year to
date, collections are $(52.4) million below prior year
collections. This decrease is probably the result of the
multi-year statutory decline in the Corporate Income Tax
rate and a decline in corporate profits during the last
year.
Insurance Premium Tax collections of $4.1 million in
October were $(5.9) million below the prior year and
$(1.5) million below the forecast. October collections
for Insurance Premium Tax largely consist of late
payments from AHCCCS health plans. Year-to-date,
collections are 7.5% above last year.
The Lottery Commission reports that October ticket sales
were $59.9 million, which is $(0.3) million, or (0.5)%, below
sales in October 2015. Year-to-date ticket sales are
$248.7 million, which is 2.5% above last year’s
sales. Distributions of Lottery revenues for ticket sales in
July through September are expected to be deposited
to the General Fund in November while distributions
associated with October Sales are expected to be
made in January.
Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) collections of $115.3
million in October were up 4.6% compared to October
of last year and were $5.2 million above forecast. Yearto-date collections are 4.4% above last year.
Due to delays in reporting final September revenues for
sales and luxury taxes, DOR has made technical
adjustments to prior month collection figures. For
October, DOR has reduced the amount of prior General
Fund revenue collections by $(6.7) million, and the
adjustment has been included in the reported year-todate results.

3
Table 4

General Fund Revenue:

Change from Previous Year and Budget Forecast
October 2016
Current Month

FY 2017 YTD (Four Months)

Change From
Actual

October 2015

October 2016

Amount

Change from
Budget Forecast

Percent

Amount

Actual

Percent

October 2015

October 2016

Amount

Budget Forecast

Percent

Amount

Percent

Taxes
Sales and Use
Income - Individual
- Corporate

$368,502,768

$15,294,319

364,275,584

45,241,234

4.3 %
14.2

$4,277,539

1.2 %

29,218,882

8.7

$1,459,275,884

$49,159,901

1,436,817,434

92,429,153

3.5 %

$7,976,585

0.5 %

6.9

42,040,846

3.0

30,677,582

(14,705,393)

(32.4)

(919,290)

(2.9)

116,326,107

(52,424,211)

(31.1)

(23,124,761)

(16.6)

Property

4,823,998

(3,018,899)

(38.5)

(1,384,043)

(22.3)

5,588,826

(2,941,318)

(34.5)

(1,346,554)

(19.4)

Luxury - Tobacco

1,924,699

(211,596)

(9.9)

0

0.0

7,644,223

(524,857)

(6.4)

(379,234)

(4.7)

2,745,493

140,420

5.4

0

0.0

9,666,217

(237,305)

(2.4)

(577,899)

- Liquor
Insurance Premium
Other Taxes
Sub-Total Taxes

4,077,218

(5,859,256)

51,545

1,760

$777,078,887

$36,882,589

(59.0)
3.5
5.0 %

(1,499,283)

(26.9)

149,145,430

10,414,484

7.5

(294,601)

(85.1)

1,185,276

1,016,687

603.1

$3,185,649,396

$96,892,535

$29,399,205

3.9 %

3.1 %

15,009,106
(437,221)
$39,160,867

(5.6)
11.2
(26.9)
1.2 %

Other Revenue
Lottery
License, Fees and Permits
Interest
Sales and Services
Other Miscellaneous
Disproportionate Share
Transfers and Reimbursements
Sub-Total Other Revenue
TOTAL BASE REVENUE

0
2,416,186

(12,931,475) (100.0)
(110,171)

(4.4)

0
(473,928)

18,783

15,788

527.2

15,737

1,281,427

649,211

102.7

(99,456)

13,490,195

10,240,519

315.1

0

0

1,125,701

(14,015,533)

$18,332,292

($16,151,661)

$795,411,178

$20,730,928

--

--

0

(16.4)

11,149,913

516.7

(12,931,475) (100.0)
1,487,250

15.4
--

0
540,476

-5.1

120,776

112,799

108,663

897.1

(7.2)

12,970,027

9,827,392

312.7

7,400,055

132.9

12,225,714

--

19,320,199

14,080,495

268.7

14,629,284

311.9

0

--

0

0

(87.2)

9,079,737

819,758

-9.9

0
(4,901,048)

--

(92.6)

(7,692,674)

(35.1)

(46.8) %

$3,975,394

27.7 %

$52,640,652

$13,396,219

34.1 %

$17,777,430

51.0 %

2.7 %

$33,374,599

4.4 %

$3,238,290,048

$110,288,754

3.5 %

$56,938,297

1.8 %

Other Adjustments
Urban Revenue Sharing
One-Time Transfers
Sub-Total Other Adjustments
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE

(55,298,514)
729,948
(54,568,566)

(4,828,986)
729,948
(4,099,038)

9.6

(0)

0.0

--

0

0.0

8.1 %

(0)

0.0 %

(221,194,056)
1,191,548
(220,002,508)

(19,315,945)

(0)

0.0

--

0

0.0

(18,124,397)

9.0 %

0

0.0 %

1,191,548

9.6

$740,842,613

$16,631,890

2.3 %

$33,374,599

4.7 %

$3,018,287,540

$92,164,357

3.1 %

$56,938,297

1.9 %

$115,305,597

$5,106,720

4.6 %

$5,198,634

4.7 %

$460,803,762

$19,553,697

4.4 %

$14,241,126

3.2 %

Non-General Funds
Highway User Revenue Fund

4

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – NOVEMBER 2016

Monthly Indicators
NATIONAL
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau
of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9% in the
third quarter of 2016. This estimate is the highest rate of
growth since the third quarter of 2014 and reflects a
strong pickup from the weak growth of 1.4% in the
second quarter of 2016. The acceleration relative to the
prior quarter was primarily due to growth in inventory
investment, exports and federal government spending.
Improved performance in these categories was partly
offset by a deceleration in consumption spending and
an increase in imports.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence
Index decreased by (4.7)% to 98.6 in October, after
having reached a post-recession high of 104.1 in
September. The monthly decrease reflected
widespread consumer pessimism about current
economic and job circumstances. Economists think the
decrease may have been driven by political uncertainty
in the lead-up to the election and rising fuel prices.
Year-over-year growth for the index fell to (0.5)% in
October.
The Conference Board's U.S. Leading Economic Index
increased by 0.2% in September and stands 0.6% above
its September 2015 reading. Of the index's 10
components, 5 made positive contributions in
September. Building permits registered a particularly
strong positive contribution, and low average weekly
initial claims for unemployment insurance also
contributed positively. Average workweek of production
workers and stock prices negatively contributed, but not
enough to offset the strong performance of positive
contributing components.
Consumer prices, as measured by the U.S. Consumer
Price Index (CPI), increased 0.3% in September and 1.5%
above September 2015 prices, its largest 12-month
increase since October 2014. The monthly increase was
primarily driven by a 5.8% increase in the gasoline index,
and also by a smaller increase in the shelter index.
Energy prices increased 2.9%, with other energy indexes
rising along with the gasoline index. Core inflation (all
items less food and energy) increased 0.1% in
September. Indexes for medical care, motor vehicle
insurance and personal care increased, while indexes
for communication, apparel, used cars and trucks,
recreation and new vehicles declined.
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau
of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Personal Consumption
Expenditure Price Index (PCEPI) grew 0.2% in September,
relative to August. The overall index stands 1.2% above
the September 2015 level. The monthly increase in the
overall measure was largely driven by monthly growth of

3.0% in energy prices. Annual growth in the core index
(all items except food and energy) grew by 0.1% during
the month.
ARIZONA
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s coincident
index gauges current economic activity in each state.
The index combines 4 indicators: employment, average
hours worked in manufacturing, unemployment rate,
and inflation-adjusted wages.
Arizona’s coincident index increased by 3.0% compared
to September 2015. Over the same time period, the U.S.
coincident index increased by 2.9%. See Appendix A –
Arizona Economic Trends for additional historical
information.
Housing
Single-family housing construction is increasing. Multifamily construction had previously peaked, but has
recently started to increase again. Arizona’s 12-month
total of single-family building permits is 23,927, or 13.1%
more than a year ago. The comparable single-family
permit growth rate for the entire U.S. is 9.5%. See
Appendix A – Arizona Economic Trends for historical
information.
The 12-month total of multi-family building permits has
started to increase again. Arizona’s total of 10,633
multi-family building permits is 10.1% more than 2015.
Arizona’s rate of increase is now greater than the
comparable multi-family permit growth for the U.S. as a
whole, which is (5.3)% lower than 2015.
Employment
According to information released by the Office of
Economic Opportunity (OEO), the state added 28,000
net new nonfarm jobs in October over September. This
was slightly above the average employment gain for
October in the prior 5 years, which was 26,500.
Compared to the same month in the prior year, the
state added 49,600 nonfarm jobs in October. This
represents a net job growth rate of 1.8%, which is the
smallest such increase since September 2014. Overall,
employment growth has slowed over the last 3 months.
The state’s unemployment rate declined from 5.5% in
September to 5.2% in October. This was the lowest
reading since March 2008 when the jobless rate was
5.0%. The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.9% in
October, a decrease of 0.1% over the prior month.

5

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – NOVEMBER 2016

Monthly Indicators (Continued)
In September, the Average Weekly Hours worked by
individuals in Arizona’s private sector was 34.0 hours.
This workload was (0.3)% below the level during the prior
month and (1.2)% below the level in September 2015.
The Average Hourly Earnings received by private sector
workers was $24.26, which is 0.1% above the average in
the prior month. September earnings were 4.3% above
the average in September 2015. The month
represented the second time since the start of calendar
year 2010 that year-over-year earnings growth
exceeded 4.0%.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases estimates
quarterly for a broader measure of labor underutilization
called the total unemployment rate. Besides the
“regularly” unemployed, the measure also includes
persons who are available to work but stopped looking
for a job (“discouraged workers”), and persons who had
to settle for part-time employment (“underemployed
workers”). The Arizona rate averaged 10.9% from the
third quarter of 2015 through the third quarter of 2016.
This rate is (0.4)% below the reading issued for the prior
period. The state’s 10.9% rate was the ninth highest of
any state, which represented an improvement over the
state's sixth place rank during the prior quarter. The
national average for the measure was 9.8% during the
quarter.
OEO reported that 17,773 initial claims for
unemployment insurance were filed in October, an
increase of 3.8% compared to the same month last
year. This was the first year-over-year increase of initial
jobless claims for the month of October since 2013.
According to OEO, the state had a total of 28,421
claimants receiving unemployment insurance benefits
in October, a decrease of (5.2)% from September. This
figure was (4.4)% below the October 2015 level, and
represented the lowest number of claimants receiving
jobless benefits for the month of October in 10 years.
State Agency Data
At the beginning of November 2016, the total AHCCCS
caseload was 1.9 million members. Since the federal
health care expansion in January 2014, the overall
AHCCCS population has grown by 605,310 members.
Total monthly enrollment increased by 10,735 members,
or 0.6%, during October. Growth over the prior month
was widespread across most AHCCCS populations.
Traditional and Proposition 204 populations of low
income parents and children collectively grew 2,700
(0.2%) during the month.

Laws 2016, Chapter 112 reopened enrollment in the
KidsCare program for children with family incomes
above those in the Traditional population, beginning
September 1, 2016. Following the enrollment freeze in
January 2010, the KidsCare caseload had dropped to
500 members by August 2016. Through November 1,
enrollment in the program reached 9,200, or 3,300
more than the prior month’s enrollment.
In January 2014, the state started accepting new
enrollment to the Proposition 204 childless adults
program. In October 2016, the childless adult
population increased by 2,500, or 0.8%. At 316,800,
this population is 4.4% higher than a year ago.
The state also opted to expand adult Medicaid
coverage to 133% of FPL. Their enrollment increased
by 400 in October and now totals 81,100 individuals.
Enrollment is 6.2% higher than a year ago. The federal
government is currently paying 100% of this cost
through the end of calendar year 2016.
There were 20,063 TANF recipients in the state in
October, representing a (0.7)% monthly caseload
decrease from September. The year-over-year
number of TANF recipients has declined by
(16.2)%. The statutory lifetime limit on cash assistance
is 12 months.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
(SNAP), formerly known as Food Stamps, provides
assistance to low-income households to purchase
food. In October, 975,447 people received food
stamp assistance in the state, representing a (0.3)%
decrease over September caseloads. Compared to
October caseloads last year, the level of food stamp
participation has declined by (2.9)%.
The inmate population was 42,600 as of October 31,
2016. This is a (0.7)% decrease since last October. The
population decreased by (0.2)% since September
2016. Laws 2016, Chapter 119 included a provision
that if the male inmate count exceeds 39,762 by
November 2016, the department may open 1,000
additional private prison beds. As of October 31,
2016, ADC held 38,595 male prisoners.

6

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – NOVEMBER 2016
Table 5

MONTHLY INDICATORS

Indicator
Arizona
Employment
- Regular Unemployment Rate
- Total Unemployment Rate (discouraged/underemployed)
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Unemployment Insurance Recipients
- Non-Farm Employment - Total
Manufacturing
Construction
- Average Weekly Hours, Private Sector
- Average Hourly Earnings, Private Sector
Sales
- Retail Taxable Sales
Motor Vehicles/Misc. Auto
Furniture/Home Furnishings
Building Material/Lawn & Garden
Building
- Residential Building Permits (12-month avg)
Single-family
Multi-family
- Maricopa County/Other, Home Sales (ARMLS)
Single-Family (Pending Sales)
- Maricopa County/Other, Median Home Price (ARMLS)
Single-Family (Pending Sales)
- Phoenix S&P/C Home Price Index (2000 = 100)
- Maricopa Pending Foreclosures
- Greater Phoenix Total Housing Inventory, (ARMLS)
Tourism
- Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers
- National Park Visitors
- State Park Visitors
- Revenue Per Available Hotel Room
General Measures
- Arizona Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Arizona Coincident Index (July 1992 = 100)
- Arizona Leading Index -- 6 month projected growth
- Arizona Personal Income
- Arizona Population
- State Debt Rating
Standards & Poor’s/Moody’s
Outlook
Agency Measures
- AHCCCS Recipients
Acute Care Traditional
Prop 204 Childless Adults
Other Prop 204
Adult Expansion
Kids Care I
Long-Term Care – Elderly & DD
Emergency Services
- Department of Child Safety (DCS)
Annual Reports of Child Maltreatment (12-month total)
DCS Out-of-Home Children
Filled Caseworkers (1406 Budgeted)
- ADC Inmate Growth
- Department of Economic Security
- TANF Recipients
- SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients
- Judiciary Probation Caseload
Non-Maricopa
Maricopa County
United States
- Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2009 dollars, SAAR)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Leading Indicators Index (2010 = 100)
- Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100)
- Personal Consumption Price Index (2009 = 100)

Change From
Prior Period

Change From
Prior Year

Time Period

Current Value

October
3rd Q 2016
October
October
October
October
October
September
September

5.2%
10.9%
17,773
28,421
2,733,400
158,200
139,600
34.0
$24.26

(0.3)%
(0.4)%
6.4%
(5.2)%
1.0%
0.1%
0.3%
(0.3)%
0.1%

(0.7)%
(2.7)%
3.8%
(4.4)%
1.8%
(0.7)%
8.1%
(1.2)%
4.3%

August
August
August

$1.01 billion
$331.1 million
$396.4 million

3.9%
(4.2)%
(5.8)%

5.5%
4.1%
6.1%

September
September

23,927
10,633

(0.1)%
10.8%

13.1%
10.1%

September

5,604

(7.1)%

6.0%

September
August
September
September

$244,900
162.87
3,505
24,087

0.4%
0.6%
(3.6)%
1.7%

8.9%
5.2%
(24.1)%
3.3%

August
July
August
August

3,367,271
1,807,611
184,610
$53.83

(8.8)%
NA
(34.7)%
(5.5)%

4th Q 2016
September
September
2nd Q 2016
July 2015

91.7
222.47
4.8%
$275.3 billion
6,828,065

3.7%
0.6%
3.1%
1.2%
N/A

May
May

AA / Aa2
Stable

N/A
N/A

November 1st

1,863,452
1,090,820
316,763
185,558
81,116
9,184
58,750
121,261

0.6%
0.1%
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
55.4%
0.2%
1.5%

July
July
October
October

48,885
18,183
1,341
42,600

(0.5)%
(0.6)%
20
(0.2)%

October
October

20,063
975,447

(0.7)%
(0.3)%

August
August

18,851
27,783

95
(13)

3rd Q, 2016 (1st
Estimate)
October
September
September
September

(8.2)%
(0.7)%
(5.0)%
5.5%
12.9%
3.0%
(1.0)%
3.3%
1.5%
N/A
N/A
4.3%
3.8%
4.4%
2.1%
6.2%
984.3%
1.9%
4.3%
(4.7)%
(0.2)%
71
(0.7)%
(16.2)%
(2.9)%
534
1,740

$16.7 trillion

1.5%

2.9%

98.6
124.4
241.00
111.1

(4.7)%
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%

(0.5)%
0.6%
1.5%
1.2%

7

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – NOVEMBER 2016

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
Arizona Department of Administration – Report on
Administrative Adjustments – Pursuant to A.R.S § 35-191,
the Arizona Department of Administration (ADOA) is
submitting their report on administrative adjustments.
A.R.S § 35-191 allows administrative adjustments for
goods and services received after the end of the fiscal
year if written documentation is provided by an
agency and approved by ADOA. Statute requires
ADOA to report any approvals for goods or services
ordered in one fiscal year but received beyond August
30 of the following fiscal year. In FY 2017, ADOA did
not grant any approvals for administrative adjustments
for orders for goods or services made in FY 2016 and
received after August 30, 2016. (Rebecca Perrera)
AHCCCS – Report on Systematic Alien Verification for
Entitlements Program – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 36-2903.03,
the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System
(AHCCCS) provided its latest report on the collection
and verification of documentation associated with the
Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE)
program.
AHCCCS, in conjunction with the Department of
Economic Security (DES), performed 179,335
verifications of immigration status in FY 2016. During this
period, AHCCCS and DES referred 49 individuals (35
citizens, 14 non-citizens) for prosecution for fraudulent
schemes, prohibited acts, theft, or forgery. AHCCCS
and DES did not identify any fraudulent documents
utilizing the SAVE program during FY 2016. (Jon Stall)
Attorney General – Report on Interagency Service
Agreements Fund Reserve Appropriation Expenditure
Notification – The FY 2017 General Appropriation Act
(Laws 2016, Chapter 117) appropriates $15.5 million
from the Interagency Service Agreements (ISA) Fund to
the Attorney General in FY 2017 to provide contracted
legal services to state agencies and political
subdivisions. A budget footnote appropriates an
additional $800,000 and 11 FTE Positions in FY 2017 for
new or expanded ISAs that exceed the initial
appropriation. The Attorney General must report to
JLBC when the additional amounts are used.

Pursuant to the footnote, the Attorney General
reports that in FY 2017 it will expend all of the
additional $800,000 as follows:
•

•

•

Expand an existing ISA with the Department of
Child Safety for litigation costs related to the
Tinsley v. McKay case by $500,200 and 3 FTE
Positions (the aggregate cost would be
$1,010,400);
Expand its existing ISA with the Department of
Corrections for litigation costs related to the
Parsons v. Ryan case by $206,400 and 2 FTE
Positions (the aggregate cost would be
$394,700); and
Expand its ISA with the Department of Gaming by
$93,400 and 1 FTE Position (the aggregate cost
would be $282,100). (Eric Billings)

Department of Child Safety – Monthly Report on Hiring
– Pursuant to a FY 2017 General Appropriation Act
footnote, the Department of Child Safety (DCS) has
reported on its progress in hiring and retaining child
safety staff through October 2016. (See Table 6
below.)
The number of direct line child safety staff
(caseworkers, caseworkers in training, caseworkers
awaiting training and hotline staff) was 1,341 in
October 2016, or (65) fewer staff than the number of
funded positions. Most of the difference between
funded positions and filled positions was driven by
lower-than-budgeted staffing of caseworkers, which
was partly offset by higher-than-budgeted staff in
training. Total direct line staff increased by 20 since
September, including 16 caseworkers.
There were also 1,351 non-direct line child safety staff
in October 2016, or (160) fewer staff than the funded
staffing level. The budgeted staffing level is 1,511
excluding Attorney General positions. Total nondirect line positions increased by 2 since September.
(Patrick Moran)
Department of Corrections – Report on Transition
Release Program – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 31-285, the

Table 6
DCS Filled FTE Positions as of October 2016
Caseworkers
Hotline Staff
Staff in Training
Subtotal - Direct Line
Subtotal - Non-Direct Line Staff
Grand Total 1/

____________
1/ Excludes 276.2 Attorney General Staff.

Funded
1,190
76
140
1,406
1,511
2,917

October
970
70
301
1,341
1,351
2,692

Difference
(220)
(6)
161
(65)
(160)
(225)

8

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – NOVEMBER 2016

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
Arizona Department of Corrections (ADC) has
submitted its annual report that details the cost
reductions that are directed to the department from
the Transition Program. The Transition Program, as
established by A.R.S. § 31-281, allows certain inmates
the opportunity to be released 3 months prior to their
release date. Statute requires for each bed day saved
a transfer of at least $17 to the program.
ADC reports that an average of 394 inmates
participated each quarter in the program. In FY 2016,
the department reports that 844 participants
successfully completed the Transition Program and
their term of community supervision while an additional
507 participants completed the Transition Program and
continued their term of community supervision. A total
of 103 participants failed to complete the early
transition release by violating their conditions of
supervision. In total, the program is responsible for
64,886 bed days saved which translates into a savings
of $1.1 million at the statutorily-mandated rate of $17
per day. (Micaela Larkin)
Arizona Department of Education – Report on K-12
Aggregate Expenditure Limit – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15911B, the State Board of Education recently reported
that currently budgeted expenditures for all school
districts collectively statewide for FY 2017 are $(532.3)
million below the Constitution’s aggregate expenditure
limitation (AEL). For FY 2016 the difference was $(813.1)
million. The AEL limits growth in non-exempted
statewide K-12 expenditures for school districts
(excluding charter schools) to the combined rate of
growth for enrollment and inflation, with certain
exceptions. (Steve Schimpp)
Department of Health Services – Annual Report on
Intergovernmental Agreement/Interagency Service
Agreement Funds – Pursuant to the FY 2016 General
Appropriation Act (Laws 2015, Chapter 8, Section 50)
and A.R.S. § 36-108.01E, DHS is required to report
annually on the fund balances, revenues, and
expenditures of its 4 Intergovernmental and
Interagency Service Agreement (IGA/ISA) funds.
These funds include monies that DHS receives from
federal, state, and local public agencies to deliver
behavioral health services, nutrition education in
schools, and teenage pregnancy prevention
programs, among other services.
The Health Services Lottery Fund consists of revenues
from the state lottery for teenage pregnancy
prevention, the Health Start program, and the Women,
Infants, and Children (WIC) program. DHS estimates
that the fund will have revenues equal to $7.4 million

and expenditures equal to $9.2 million, with an ending
balance of $7.2 million in FY 2017. DHS projects the fund
will have revenues of $7.6 million and expenditures of
$9.2 million, with an ending balance of $5.7 million in FY
2018.
The IGA/ISA Fund primarily consists of monies from an
ISA between DHS and the Department of Economic
Security (DES) that requires DHS to provide nutrition
education in public schools using funds from the
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). DHS
states that in FY 2017 this fund is estimated to have $22.8
million in revenues and $16.8 million in expenditures, and
have an ending balance of $6.0 million. DHS projects
revenues and expenditures will be unchanged in FY
2018, with an ending balance of $12.0 million.
The ISA for Behavioral Health Services Fund consists of
state and federal monies that DHS received from the
Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System
(AHCCCS) for the delivery of Medicaid-funded
behavioral health services. The IGA for County
Behavioral Health Services Fund consists of monies
received from Maricopa County and Pima County for
the delivery of behavioral health services to individuals
with a serious mental illness. These funds will have no
revenues or expenditures in FY 2017 because behavioral
health services transferred to AHCCCS beginning July 1,
2016. In FY 2016, the ending balances for these funds
were $44.3 million and $346,300, respectively. (Morgan
Dorcheus)
JLBC Staff – Report on FY 2016 Travel and Relocation
Expenses – A.R.S. § 35-196.01 requires agencies to
annually report relocation expenses for their employees.
As of November 4, 2016, 5 agencies reported spending
a total of $39,862 on these purposes in FY 2016. See
Table 7. (Steve Grunig)
Table 7

Agency
Corrections, State Department of
Game and Fish Department, Arizona
Governor, Office of the
Arizona State Schools for the Deaf
and the Blind
Public Safety, Department of
Total

FY 2016 Travel
Expense
$10,515
2,630
4,853
6,172
15,692
$39,862

Department of Revenue - Report on Individual Income
Tax Fraud Prevention - Pursuant to Laws 2016, Chapter
117, on or before November 1, 2016, the Department of

9

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – NOVEMBER 2016

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
Revenue is required to report the results of private
fraud prevention investigation services during FY 2016,
including the total number of fraudulent returns
prevented and the total dollar amount of fraudulent
returns prevented. Funds are used to contract with a
vendor to provide investigation services to identify
potentially fraudulent Individual Income Tax returns
and prevent fraudulent refunds from being sent by the
department. The department reports that the fraud
prevention efforts stopped 41,186 returns from being
sent to filers totaling $78.5 million in FY 2016. (Jeremy
Gunderson)
Supreme Court – Report on Adult Probation Services
Fund and the Juvenile Probation Fund – Pursuant to a
General Appropriation Act footnote and A.R.S. § 12262, the Administrative Office of the Courts (AOC) is
required to report to the JLBC on the FY 2016 actual, FY
2017 estimated, and FY 2018 requested amounts of the
following: 1) the number of authorized and filled case
carrying and non-case carrying probation positions by
county; 2) the total receipts and expenditures by
county and fund source for each of the probation
Special Line Items (SLI), including the Personal Services
expended from each revenue source of each
account; and 3) the amount of monies from the
probation SLIs that the AOC does not distribute as
direct aid to counties. The figures in this report are for
all counties except Maricopa as the state does not
pay any of the county’s costs of probation.
Adult Standard Probation
Adult Standard Probation county expenditures
statewide for probation officers were $37.4 million in FY
2016, of which $11.9 million were General Fund monies
and $3.9 million were non-General Fund state
expenditures. The remaining $21.6 million were county
expenditures. These monies funded 231.4 authorized
case carrying positions and 391.3 authorized non-case
carrying positions. Of these positions, 207.0 case
carrying and 324.6 non-case carrying positions were
filled. AOC estimates total expenditures of $39.2 million
in FY 2017 and $41.6 million in FY 2018.
AOC reports Adult Standard Probation SLI expenditures
of $15.8 million in FY 2016 which included $11.6 million
in General Fund and $4.2 million in other appropriated
funds. All of these monies were distributed to county
probation departments for probation officer costs. The
AOC also reports expenditures of $467,200 from the
Interstate Compact SLI which were distributed to
Yavapai and Pima Counties.

Adult Intensive Probation
AOC reports statewide Adult Intensive Probation county
expenditures for probation officers of $10.1 million in FY
2016, of which $8.6 million were General Fund monies
and $1.5 million were non-General Fund state
expenditures. These monies funded 105.5 authorized
case carrying positions and 64.4 authorized non-case
carrying positions. Of these positions, 101.5 case
carrying and 53.6 non-case carrying positions were
filled. AOC estimates total expenditures of $10.4 million
in both FY 2017 and FY 2018.
AOC reports Adult Intensive Probation SLI expenditures
of $10.2 million in FY 2016, of which $8.6 million were
General Fund monies and $1.6 million were other
appropriated funds. All of these monies were
distributed to county probation departments for
probation officer costs.
Juvenile Standard Probation
The statewide total for Juvenile Standard Probation
county expenditures for probation officers was $16.5
million in FY 2016, of which $3.2 million were General
Fund monies. The remaining $13.3 million were county
expenditures. These monies funded 56.7 authorized
case carrying positions and 369.1 authorized non-case
carrying positions. Of these positions, 51.4 case carrying
and 366.8 non-case carrying positions were filled. AOC
estimates total expenditures of $18.2 million in both FY
2017 and FY 2018.
AOC reports Juvenile Standard Probation SLI
expenditures of $3.4 million in General Fund monies in FY
2016. All of these monies were distributed to county
probation departments for probation officer costs.
Juvenile Intensive Probation
AOC reports statewide Juvenile Intensive Probation
county expenditures for probation officers of $4.8 million
in FY 2016, all of which were General Fund monies.
These monies funded 45.3 authorized case carrying
positions and 33.1 authorized non-case carrying
positions. Of these positions, 45.3 case carrying and 27.1
non-case carrying positions were filled. AOC estimates
total expenditures of $4.9 million in both FY 2017 and FY
2018.
AOC reports Juvenile Intensive Probation SLI General
Fund expenditures of $5.3 million in FY 2016. All of these
monies were distributed to county probation
departments for probation officer costs. (Eric Billings)
Universities – Report on University Research Infrastructure
Income – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-1670, Arizona State
University (ASU), Northern Arizona University (NAU), and
the University of Arizona (UA) are required to submit an
annual report on the amount of the previous year’s
income from licensure and royalty payments and the
sale or transfer of intellectual property developed by

10

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – NOVEMBER 2016

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
the university, and to deposit a portion of that income
into the state General Fund. These payments were
required in exchange for the General Fund paying the
debt service on $483 million in 2003 research building
construction.
While not defined in statute, the universities consider
income to be gross royalty and licensure revenues net
of legal fees, associated operating expenses, and
distributions made to the inventors.
In terms of FY 2016 gross royalty revenues, ASU reported
$10.8 million of licensing and royalty revenues, NAU
reported $5,290 of licensing and royalty revenues, and
UA reported $2.0 million of licensure, royalty and
assignment revenues.
In terms of net income, NAU and UA both reported a
loss in FY 2016. ASU reported a net income of $603,000
in FY 2016. ASU did not deposit any portion of these
monies into the General Fund, however, citing a $40.3
million cumulative loss from prior years they believe

should offset the FY 2016 income. Statute does not
provide, however, for offsetting annual income with
prior year losses. (Matt Beienburg)
Department of Veterans’ Services – Report on Capital
Projects – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 41-610, the Department of
Veterans’ Services is required to submit an annual report
on capital projects for which they have requested
federal monies in the past 12 months. The department
has not received any additional monies for construction
of veterans' cemeteries or federal match monies for
veterans' home construction in the past 12 months. The
department reports it has been awarded monies for 2
veteran cemetery projects which are continued from
last year, as well as 2 pending applications for veterans'
homes. The FY 2015 and FY 2017 budgets appropriated
$9.2 million and $10.0 million, respectively from the
General Fund for the state's portion of the construction
cost. The state is responsible for paying the ongoing
operational costs of cemeteries and 35% of the
construction costs of veterans’ homes. (Morgan
Dorcheus)

October Spending
October 2016 General Fund spending was $699.9
million, which represents an increase of $5.5 million
above October 2015. (See Tables 8 & 9). Year-todate, General Fund spending is $4.32 billion, or
$(298.1) million below the prior year.
•

Year-to-date, Department of Education spending
has increased by $43.5 million, due to increased
enrollment and inflation funding.

•

Prior to FY 2017, DHS used to administer the state’s
Medicaid Behavioral Health program. Beginning in

FY 2017, this responsibility has been shifted to
AHCCCS. Due to this shift, DHS will no longer be
making its beginning of the year Medicaid
transfer, causing DHS spending to decline by
$(449.3) million year-to-date compared to FY 2016.
•

The decline in Universities' spending year-to-date is
a technical timing issue relating to the distribution
of funds to the University system. Excluding
additional monies for the rollover repayment
(which occurred at the of FY 2016), the Universities
received a net increase in funding for FY 2017.

Table 8
General Fund Spending ($ in Millions)
Change From
Oct 16

YTD Change

Oct 15

Year-to-Date

from FY 16

Agency
AHCCCS

170.4

50.7

595.6

169.2

Corrections

72.5

(12.6)

359.9

(16.6)

Child Safety

19.4

(35.4)

122.6

(10.4)

Economic Security

15.8

(8.7)

451.5

63.2

Education

285.1

17.0

1,983.6

43.5

Health Serv ices

7.0

(14.0)

33.7

(449.3)

Public Safety

9.3

0.7

40.4

3.8

School Facilities Board

0.1

(0.1)

170.8

9.1

Univ ersities

55.7

18.8

226.1

(127.2)

Leaseback Debt Serv ice

0.0

0.0

84.1

0.0

Other

64.6

(10.9)

246.9

16.6

Total

699.9

5.5

4,315.2

(298.1)

11

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – NOVEMBER 2016

Table 9

General Fund Spending
($ in Thousands)
Agency
Dept. of Admin./Automation Projects Fund
ADOA – Sale/Leaseback Debt Service
Office of Administrative Hearings
Commission of African-American Affairs
Department of Agriculture
AHCCCS
Attorney General
State Board of Charter Schools
Department of Child Safety
AZ Commerce Authority
Community Colleges
Corporation Commission
Department of Corrections
AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind
Office of Economic Opportunity
Department of Economic Security
State Board of Education
Department of Education
DEMA
Office of Equal Opportunity
State Board of Equalization
Board of Executive Clemency
Department of Financial Institutions
Department of Fire, Bldg and Life Safety
Department of Forestry and Fire Management
Department of Gaming
Governor/OSPB
Department of Health Services
Arizona Historical Society
Prescott Historical Society of AZ
Department of Housing
Independent Redistricting Comm.
Department of Insurance
Judiciary
Supreme/Superior Court
Court of Appeals
Department of Juvenile Corrections

19,411.1

Change from
Oct 15
(4,557.9)
4.8
2.0
(255.8)
50,716.6
963.6
(81.8)
(35,390.5)

1,791.7
12,835.9
45.1
72,478.5
2,869.0
19.5
15,788.3
(20.6)
285,052.6
1,025.4
18.2
135.0
57.1
344.9
582.8
472.4
6,989.4
490.9
57.9
76.9
96.6
366.8

(416.6)
(227.1)
(7.7)
(12,555.8)
(1,393.8)
19.5
(8,748.9)
(101.0)
17,049.9
(1,387.6)
1.8
79.3
(88.9)
123.5
(147.0)
40.6
(149.9)
(14,042.5)
(173.4)
(6.7)
76.9
8.1
(323.7)

7,241.8
25,348.8
195.1
359,918.1
10,501.8
19.5
451,454.9
321.8
1,983,594.9
3,214.9
70.0
301.1
214.3
1,045.1
(3.6)
2,558.8
1,779.5
2,923.7
33,670.1
1,302.1
287.6
321.5
390.3
1,526.6

(1,591.4)
(104.6)
(21.2)
(16,561.8)
(1,284.6)
19.5
63,178.8
(85.2)
43,459.1
(145.8)
20.6
41.5
(159.2)
(55.3)
(760.5)
450.0
(14.9)
(302.2)
(449,323.5)
(149.2)
(31.2)
321.5
110.7
(460.0)

21,285.8
1,388.6
1,065.6

1,853.1
(33.1)
(1,099.7)

43,144.6
4,913.2
9,085.0

2,458.6
(130.5)
(1,533.4)

Oct 16
1,696.7
75.1
8.9
748.3
170,419.8
2,533.1
62.3

Year-to-Date

YTD Change
from FY 16

18,447.3
84,117.4
324.9
40.6
3,162.0
595,581.4
8,230.4
308.0
122,629.2

9,007.0
2.8
10.7
1.4
(46.3)
169,207.6
1,056.9
(98.6)
(10,435.1)

12

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – NOVEMBER 2016

Table 9 (Continued)

Agency
State Land Department
Legislature
Auditor General
House of Representatives
Joint Legislative Budget Comm.
Legislative Council
Senate
Mine Inspector
Nav. Streams & Adjudication
Arizona State Parks Board
Phoenix Convention Center
Comm. for Postsecondary Ed.
Department of Public Safety
Public Safety Personnel Retirement System
Radiation Regulatory Agency
Real Estate Department
Department of Revenue
School Facilities Board
Secretary of State
Tax Appeals Board
Office of Tourism
Governor's Office on Tribal Relations
Universities
Board of Regents
Arizona State University
Northern Arizona University
University of Arizona
Department of Veteran Services
Department of Water Resources
Water Infrastructure Finance Authority
Department of Weights & Measures
Other - JP Salaries Distribution
Other
Total

Oct 16

Change from
Oct 15

Year-to-Date

YTD Change
from FY 16

1,385.7

634.6

3,671.9

422.6

1,469.2
1,048.0
186.6
537.5
589.8
151.7
17.9
9,348.0
291.9
408.7
5,201.3
90.5
1,578.8
50.5
11.0

(11.8)
(262.1)
21.2
(51.9)
102.9
(30.1)
(0.6)
667.5
(28.2)
10.3
(1,921.5)
(74.5)
455.2
25.2
(2,488.6)
(0.3)

6,625.3
4,228.0
841.1
1,947.7
2,987.4
435.0
52.5
20,449.0
696.3
40,382.7
6,000.0
835.8
1,095.9
12,016.5
170,830.6
12,520.8
112.5
1,777.6
28.0

10.2
(609.4)
46.0
(369.4)
377.5
(7.4)
5.6
(272.8)
(2.1)
3,798.6
79.6
92.2
(12,088.1)
9,129.7
8,774.6
1.3
(3,199.7)
12.6

1,325.5
24,676.2
8,432.8
21,311.5
468.8
926.2
153.3
699,931.5

895.5
8,048.6
2,605.9
7,231.3
48.6
(9.5)
(89.3)
(9.4)
76.0
5,510.8

8,440.0
98,704.8
33,696.0
85,246.2
1,993.2
3,702.5
500.0
335.4
17.5
4,315,177.3

1,323.3
(58,380.9)
(20,106.4)
(50,004.7)
208.7
62.2
500.0
(380.1)
(101.7)
(25.7)
(298,111.5)

JLBC
Jul-15

3

JLBC
Jul 15
Jul 16

Jan 16

35,000

Jul 14

8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jul 16

Jan 16

Jul 15

Jan 15

2,200
Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jan 10

Jul 09

Jan 09

Jul 08

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jan 07

Jul 06

Jan 06

Jul 05

Jan 05

Jul 04

Jan 04

Jul 03

Jan 03

Jul 02

Jan 02

Jul 01

Jan 01

Thousands of Jobs
2,300

Jan 14

Jan 01
Jul 01
Jan 02
Jul 02
Jan 03
Jul 03
Jan 04
Jul 04
Jan 05
Jul 05
Jan 06
Jul 06
Jan 07
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 14
Jan 15
Jul 15
Jan 16
Jul 16

Year Over Year Growth (%)

2,400

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jan 10

Jul 09

Jan 09

Jul 08

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jan 07

4.3% Y/Y Growth
(September 2016)

Jul 06

$19

Jan 06

$20

Jul 05

$24.26 / Hour
(September 2016)

Jan 05

$23

Jul 04

$25

Jan 04

Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector

Jul 03

$22

Total Monthly Claims for UI Benefits

Jul-16

Jan-16

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

JLBC

Jan 03

Jan 11
July 11

1

Jul 02

Jan 10
July 10

2……Total Non-Farm Employment
3……Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector
4……Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
5……State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
6……State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting
Category
7……Residential Building Permits
8……Economic Activity Index

Jan 02

Jan 09
July 09

November 2016
Appendix A

Jul 01

Jan 01

Jul-16

Jan-16

12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%

Jan-15

Jan 08
July 08

$21

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 11

July 10

Jan 07
July 07

$ / Hour

Page:

Jan 10

July 09

Jan 09

July 08

Jan 08

July 07

Jan 07

Year Over Year Growth (%)

Arizona Economic Trends

Total Non-Farm Employment

2,800

2,700

2,600

2,500

$22.73 / Hour
(Octoberjobs
2014)
2,733,400
(October 2016)

2,100

1.8% Y/Y Growth
(October 2016)

2

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

$24

45,000

40,000

30,000

17,773 Claims
(October 2016)

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

Not seasonally adjusted

4

JLBC
12-Month Moving Sum

0

7

JLBC
Source: Coincident Index – Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Combines four state-level indicators
(employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary
disbursements) to summarize current economic conditions.
Jul 16

Jan 16

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 16

Jan 16

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 11

July 10

Jan 10

July 09

Jan 09

July 08

Jan 08

July 07

Jan 07

July 06

Year Over Year Growth (%)

Jul 16

Jul 14

Jul 16

Jan 16

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 11

July 10

Jan 10

July 09

Jan 09

July 08

Jan 08

July 07

Jan 07

July 06

Jul 16

Jan 16

Jul 15

Jan 15

$ in Millions
$50

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

140

Jul 09

150

10,000

Jan 10

160

20,000

Jul 08

30,000

Jan 09

40,000

Jan 08

Single Family Unit - 23,927 Permits
Multi-Family Unit - 10,633 Permits
(Sept. 2016)

Jul 07

80,000
210

Jul 06

220

Jan 07

230

90,000

Jul 05

100,000

Jan 06

Residential Building Permits

Jan 05

70,000

JLBC

Jul 04

5

Jul 03

Jul 15
Jan 16

2.0% Y/Y Growth
(October 2016)
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

Jan 04

Jul 14
Jan 15

* Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

$100

Jul 02

Jul 13

Jan 11
July 11

$185.3 million
(October 2016)

Jan 03

50,000
Jan 13

Jan 10
July 10

$150

Jul 01

60,000
Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 11

July 10

July 09

Jan 09

July 08

Jan 08

July 07

Jan 07

July 06

$ in Millions
$175

Jan 02

* January 2014 estimate adjusted downward by $30 million to reflect onetime category shift.

Coincident Index Value

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax
Jan 10

July 09

Jan 09

July 08

Jan 08

July 07

20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
* Jan 14

JLBC
Jan 07

July 06

Year Over Year Growth (%)
$125

Jan 01

Jan 01
Jul 01
Jan 02
Jul 02
Jan 03
Jul 03
Jan 04
Jul 04
Jan 05
Jul 05
Jan 06
Jul 06
Jan 07
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 14
Jan 15
Jul 15
Jan 16
Jul 16

Building Permits

State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting Category

$225
$100

$200
$75

$36.5 million
(October 2016)

$25

$0

6.7% Y/Y Growth
(October 2016)

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

6

Economic Activity Index
222.5 Index Value
(September 2016)

200

190

180

170

8