JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights

July 2016

Summary
1716 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Phone:
(602) 926-5491
Fax:
(602) 926-5416

The state’s Fiscal Year 2016 ended on June
30th. The results reported in this Monthly Fiscal
Highlights should be considered preliminary as
the state will continue its book closing process
over the next several months.

million. Given higher than projected revenues
of $25 million, being offset by higher than
expected spending of $28 million, the JLBC
Staff is currently estimating the FY 2016 ending
balance to be $222 million.

Given the information received so far, the
following summarizes the status of FY 2016:

The enacted May budget had a projected FY
2017 ending balance of $66 million. Given that
the preliminary FY 2016 results were close to
target, the FY 2017 balance projection remains
unchanged at this time.




www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

“At the end of
the Regular



Session, FY
2016 was
projected to
have an
ending
balance of
$225 million…
the JLBC Staff
is currently
estimating the
FY 2016 ending
balance to be
$222 million.”
This report has been
prepared for the Arizona
Legislature by the Joint
Legislative Budget
Committee Staff on
July 20, 2016.



June General Fund collections were $(18)
million below forecast, mostly due to
modest forecast losses in the Individual
and Corporate Income Tax categories.
Total FY 2016 General Fund revenues were
5.0% above the prior year and $25 million
above the enacted budget forecast.
Excluding Urban Revenue Sharing and
one-time fund transfers, General Fund
collections increased by 3.2% during the
year.
Total FY 2016 General Fund revenues were
$9.77 billion. This amount consists of $9.45
billion from current FY 2016 revenue
collections and a $312 million beginning
balance carried forward from FY 2015.
Based on preliminary spending data from
ADOA, FY 2016 General Fund spending is
estimated to be $9.54 billion, which is an
increase of 3.0% above FY 2015 and $28
million greater than anticipated. Agency
“revertments” appear to be less than
expected.

Each year, the enacted budget assumes a
certain level of unspent agency appropriations.
If the level of unspent appropriations, known as
“revertments” is less than anticipated, the
budgeted spending level can be exceeded.
At the end of the Regular Session, FY 2016 was
projected to have an ending balance of $225

The official determination of the state’s fiscal
year ending balance will take several
months. The General Appropriation Act
requires the Executive Branch to provide a
preliminary estimate of the FY 2016 ending
balance by September 15, 2016. By law, the
Department of Administration is required to
publish its final FY 2016 accounting by
December 1, 2016.
Operating Fund Balance
The state’s fiscal health can also be measured
by the operating fund balance. The state pays
its bills out of the operating fund balance,
which consists of the General Fund and certain
dedicated funds. The ending FY 2016
operating balance was $2.7 billion, compared
to $2.5 billion a year earlier. As of mid-July, the
operating fund balance has fallen to $1.6
billion, primarily due to large K-12 rollover
payments made in the beginning of the fiscal
year.
In addition, the current Budget Stabilization
Fund (BSF) balance is $423 million. This balance
has declined from its previous levels of
approximately $460 million due to the
temporary use of BSF monies. Section 114 of the
FY 2017 General Appropriation Act authorized

Table of Contents
Summary
 FY 2016 Revenue................................................. 2
 FY 2016 Spending................................................ 3
 JLBC Staff News................................................... 3
June Revenues........................................................ 3
Monthly Indicators.................................................. 6
Summary of Recent Agency Reports
 ADOA – Employee Health Insurance Fund .... 9
 ADOA – Health and Dental Plan Standards .. 9

 AHCCCS/DHS – Reconciliation Payments ......9
 ADC – Health Care Vendor Report .................9
 DES – ATP Coolidge Placements ......................9
 ADE – English Language Learners. .................10
 DHS – Report on Arnold v Sarn. .......................10
 Ombudsman – Annual Report. .......................10
 Universities – Performance Funding ...............11

June Spending .......................................................11
Tracking Arizona’s Recovery ............ Appendix A

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JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2016

Summary (Continued)
a bridge loan for both DCS and DES and allowed each
of these agencies to use up to $35 million of BSF monies
to provide funding for reimbursement grants. This funding
is required to be paid back by September 1, 2016.
FY 2016 Revenue
FY 2016 General Fund revenues increased by $449
million, or 5.0% above FY 2015. Excluding Urban Revenue
Sharing and one-time fund transfers, General Fund
collections increased by 3.2% during the year.
The FY 2016 revenue results were mixed across the state’s
major revenue categories. Collections were lower than
forecasted in the Sales and Corporate Income Tax
categories, while Individual Income Tax was higher than
projected. Of the total forecast overage of $25 million,
$64 million was attributable to the Individual Income Tax,
being offset by loss of $(45) million in Sales Tax, and $(33)
million in the Corporate Income Tax category. Table 1
displays the performance of these revenue categories
as compared to the enacted forecast.
Table 1

Growth Rates and Collections Compared to
Enacted Forecast By Revenue Category
Budgeted
4.0%

Prelim.
Actual
2.9%

Individual Income

3.8%

5.5%

$64 M

Corporate Income

(8.9)%

(13.9)%

$(33) M

Sales

Above
Forecast
$(45) M

Sales Tax
During FY 2016, the Sales Tax category posted a modest
growth of 2.9% and a forecast loss of $(45) million, the
largest loss of any of the state’s revenue categories.
(This is a preliminary estimate based on currently
available sales tax data from the Department of
Revenue.) The FY 2016 growth rate was the lowest since
FY 2011, when sales tax collections increased by 1.9%.
The reasons for the lower-than-expected sales tax
growth in FY 2016 are difficult to determine with
available data.
However, a recent report from the Nelson A. Rockefeller
Institute of Government indicates that Arizona is only one
of many states nationwide that have experienced a
slowing trend in the growth of sales tax revenues. The
report attributes this trend at least in part to consumers’
increased use of electronic commerce, under which
some online retail sales transactions go untaxed. The
report’s authors did not attempt to quantify the lost tax
dollars from online sales.
Another explanation for the slower growth in sales tax
collections is that consumers appear to have become

more cautious in their discretionary spending in the postGreat Recession period, especially as it relates to “bigticket” items. In addition, national data indicates that
consumers are increasingly spending their income on
services, which are not generally subject to state sales
taxation.
Apart from national trends with respect to consumer
behavior, there are also other conditions unique to
Arizona. As an example, the 2013 “TPT Simplification”
legislation may have had a net negative impact on
Arizona sales tax growth in FY 2016. Among other
provisions, the “TPT Simplification” law, which became
effective in January 2015, shifted the taxation of
materials used in smaller building projects from prime
contracting to retail. As a result, contracting tax
collections declined whereas retail sales tax collections
increased. It is not clear, however, whether the increase
in retail collections were enough to offset the (10)%
decline of the contracting tax.
Individual Income Tax
Individual Income Tax grew by 5.5% in FY 2016 and
ended up $64 million above the enacted budget
forecast. Most of this forecast overage related to
Individual Income Tax withholding, which grew by 4.0%,
the fastest growth rate since FY 2011.
Individual Income Tax payments, which are largely
driven by capital gains, increased 8.9% during FY
2016. While this level of increase represents a healthy
growth rate for this revenue source, it is notably lower
than some of the double digit increases seen in the last
several years.
Growth in payments slowed in the second half of FY
2016. The growth rate fell from 24.0% during the first 7
months of the fiscal year through January 2016 to 1.0%
during the last 5 months. A portion of the payment
growth earlier in the fiscal year may represent a
carryover of strong gains from Tax Year 2014. Those
gains generated higher income tax payments in April
2015, which may have in turn have caused taxpayers to
increase their estimated payments through the end of
the calendar year.
In calendar year (CY) 2015, the S&P 500 posted its first
annual loss since the recession during CY 2008. As a
result, April 2016 final payments did not grow as
quickly. Those lower April 2016 payments may have led
to lower June 2016 estimated payments, which were
(9.8)% below last year.
Overall FY 2016 payment growth can also be explained
by one-time revenues from the September 2015 tax
amnesty and fiduciary income.

3

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2016

Summary (Continued)
Corporate Income Tax
The category posting the second largest forecast loss
was the Corporate Income Tax, which declined by
(13.9)% for the year and came in at $(33.2) million
below the enacted budget forecast in FY 2016. As
JLBC Staff has noted in prior Monthly Fiscal Highlights,
the reasons for fluctuations in this tax category are
difficult to determine without access to timely
corporate tax return data. However, one factor in the
significant decrease is the decline in the Corporate
Income Tax rate that is being phased in through Tax
Year (TY) 2017.
Even states with stable corporate tax rates, however,
are seeing declines in their tax collections. These losses
are being attributed to lower corporate profitability.
While we lack Arizona-specific data, national beforetax profits have been declining.
The federal Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and IHS
Global Insight, an economic consulting firm, report that
national corporate profits declined (year over year) in
each of the last 3 quarters. The decline in corporate
profits followed the record high levels reported by BEA
for the second and third calendar year quarters of
2015.

As a result, Arizona’s FY 2016 corporate collections
decline can probably be attributed to both the
effects of previously enacted corporate tax
reductions and an overall decline in corporate
profitability.
FY 2016 Spending
Total FY 2016 General Fund spending is projected to
be $9.54 billion, which represents an increase of 3.0%
above FY 2015. This spending level is $28 million
above the amount assumed in the enacted budget.
Each year during the budget process, the projected
spending levels assume a certain level of
“revertments”, which are appropriations to agencies
which remain unspent. To the extent that the
amount of agency revertments is less than assumed,
the actual level of spending can exceed the
amount contained in budget estimates. Based on
available data, it appears the above-budgeted
spending is the result of lower-than-expected
revertments.
JLBC Staff News
In staff news, Bob Hull has retired after almost 40
years of service at the JLBC. Congratulations to Bob!

June Revenues
Table 2

June
Year-to-Date

General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions)
FY 2016
Collections
$ 1,152.0
$ 9,453.1

Sales Tax collections during June are estimated to be
$368.0 million and 6.3% above June of last year.
Revenues for the category are projected to be $6.6
million above the forecast for the month. Total FY 2016
sales tax revenue increased by 2.9%, which was the
lowest growth rate since FY 2011 when collections
increased by 1.9%. Total FY 2016 sales tax revenue of
$4.32 billion was $(44.8) million below forecast.
As shown in Table 3, among the 5 major sales tax
categories, which together make up 90% of total
collections, only the contracting category performed
well in June. While contracting tax revenue increased
(year over year) by 18.5%, all the other tax categories
grew by 0% to 1.8%.

Difference From
Budget Forecast
$
(18.2)
$
25.0

Difference
From FY 2015
$
16.6
$
448.6

Table 3
Sales Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year
June
YTD
Retail
0.1%
5.6%
Contracting
18.5%
(10.0)%
Use
1.8%
0.8%
Restaurant & Bar 1.7%
5.5%
Utilities
0.0%
1.7%

Individual Income Tax net revenues of $375.2 million in
June were $(18.8) million less than the prior year and
$(19.0) million below forecast for the month.
Total FY 2016 revenues have grown by 5.5% and are $63.8
million above the forecast for the year. As indicated in
Table 4, withholding decreased (3.0)% in June. The
monthly decrease brings withholding tax collections for

4

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2016

June Revenues (Continued)
the fiscal year to 4.0% over the prior year. This amount is
$64.2 million above the forecast for the year.
June estimated and final payments of $119.1 million
were (8.6)% below last year, and were $(11.6) million
below the forecast. Total FY 2016 payments were $12.1
million above the forecast and 8.9% above FY 2015.
June Individual Income Tax refunds totaled $(40.3) million
– this compares to $(41.9) million in June 2015. In total
during FY 2016, refunds increased compared to the prior
year, which has resulted in a loss of $(12.5) million
compared to the enacted forecast.
Table 4

Individual Income Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year
June
Withholding
(3.0)%
Estimated/Final Payments
(8.6)%
Refunds
(3.8)%

YTD
4.0%
8.9%
4.6%

Corporate Income Tax net collections were $95.0 million
in June, which was (13.6)% lower than June 2015.
Collections for the month were $(12.0) million below the
enacted forecast. Total FY 2016 collections of $570.5
million were (13.9)% below the prior year and $(33.2)
million below forecast. This decrease is probably the
result of the decline in the Corporate Income Tax rate
along with lower corporate profitability.
The Lottery Commission reports that June ticket sales
were $66.4 million, which is $6.5 million, or 10.8%, above
sales in June 2015. Total FY 2016 ticket sales were $870.9
million, which is 16.1% above last year’s sales. As of the
publication of this document, Lottery had yet to
complete year-end processing of General Fund
proceeds from ticket sales. The JLBC Staff projects that
FY 2016 General Fund revenue from Lottery proceeds will
be $10.9 million above prior year revenue and $11.4
million above the enacted forecast.
Insurance Premium Tax collections of $87.3 million in June
were $2.8 million above the prior year and $8.0 million
above the forecast. Total FY 2016 revenues are 9.1%
above last year and $26.7 million above forecast.
Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) collections of $115.4
million in June were up $5.1 million, or 4.6% compared to
June of last year. Total FY 2016 revenues were $66.3 million
above collections in the prior year and $25.0 million
above forecast. Above forecast HURF collections are likely
the result of the decline in gas prices during FY 2016,
which tends to increase gas consumption and collections
of the state’s fixed price-per-gallon gas tax.

Due to the implementation of a new accounting
system, DOR has made technical adjustments to prior
month collection figures. For June, DOR has decreased
the amount of prior General Fund revenue collections
by $(66,100), and the adjustment has been included in
the reported year-to-date results. June Luxury Tax
numbers represent forecasted amounts since actual
amounts have not yet been reported.

5
Table 5

General Fund Revenue:
Change from Previous Year and Budget Forecast
June 2016
Current Month

FY 2016 YTD (Twelve Months)

Change From
Actual
June 2016

June 2015
Amount

Change from
Budget Forecast

Percent

Amount

Actual

Percent

June 2015

June 2016

Amount

Budget Forecast
Percent

Amount

Percent

Taxes
Sales and Use
Income - Individual
- Corporate

$368,000,000

$21,754,449

$4,315,186,609

$122,892,773

375,217,930

(18,815,643)

(4.8)

6.3 %

(18,989,862)

$6,615,662

(4.8)

1.8 %

3,967,919,501

206,575,507

95,046,699

(14,957,761)

(13.6)

(11,997,952)

(11.2)

570,547,697

(882,005)

(11.9)

(92,455,323)

2.9 %
5.5
(13.9)

($44,785,994)

(1.0) %

63,757,301

1.6

(33,249,003)

(5.5)

(1,626,964)

(4.1)

Property

6,519,150

102,202

1.6

38,540,536

2,024,660

5.5

Luxury - Tobacco

2,369,612

348,071

17.2

0

0.0

24,595,891

950,135

4.0

827,791

3.5

2,319,112

(341,511)

(12.8)

0

0.0

33,273,265

172,074

0.5

(326,435)

(1.0)

7,950,513

10.0

490,576,281

41,029,527

9.1

7,677,089

137,229

1.8

$9,448,316,868

$281,326,583

10,876,477

- Liquor
Insurance Premium
Other Taxes
Sub-Total Taxes

87,276,962

2,829,183

3.4

578,634

66,400

13.0
(1.0) %

(21,879)
($17,325,523)

(3.6)

$937,328,099

($9,014,610)

(1.8) %

12,000,000

(9,187,073)

(43.4)

(12,798,876)

(51.6)

76,972,750

3,302,267

(980,359)

(22.9)

(1,089,262)

(24.8)

30,158,057

3.1 %

26,709,081
(239,811)
$11,065,966

5.8
(3.0)
0.1 %

Other Revenue
Lottery
License, Fees and Permits

16.5

11,357,450

17.3

(3.0)

(1,881,143)

(5.9)
(1.7)

Interest

13,346,122

3,415,310

34.4

Sales and Services

10,814,293

(1,456,528)

(11.9)

Other Miscellaneous

73,446,008

3,226,704

Disproportionate Share

93,866,311

6,044,405

6.9

Transfers and Reimbursements

17,635,248

(1,396,118)

(7.3)

$224,410,248

($333,657)

(0.1) %

($4,122,749)

(1.8) %

$390,133,010

$21,778,669

5.9 %

$10,687,010

2.8 %

$1,161,738,347

($9,348,267)

(0.8) %

($21,448,272)

(1.8) %

$9,838,449,878

$303,105,252

3.2 %

$21,752,975

0.2 %

Sub-Total Other Revenue
TOTAL BASE REVENUE

4.6

67,611

(947,947)

(742,011)
17,948,322
11
(7,508,544)

0.5

13,338,392

3,124,453

30.6

(227,908)

(6.4)

36,682,881

(1,509,468)

(4.0)

400,181

1.1

32.3

94,400,996

16,492,566

21.2

13,638,696

16.9

0.0

93,866,311

(29.9)

44,713,622

6,044,405
(12,301,817)

6.9
(21.6)

11
(12,600,278)

0.0
(22.0)

Other Adjustments
Urban Revenue Sharing
One-Time Transfers
Sub-Total Other Adjustments
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE

(50,469,521)

275,113

--

40,699,300

25,699,300

171.3

(9,770,222)

25,974,412

-- %

$1,151,968,126

$16,626,145

1.5 %

$115,352,316

$5,114,670

4.6 %

0

0.0

(605,634,326)

3,278,855

8.8

220,296,555

142,173,052

3,278,855

(25.1) %

(385,337,771)

145,474,426

-- %

3,278,829

(0.8) %

($18,169,417)

3,301,374

-182.0

(26)
3,278,855

0.0
1.5

(1.6) %

$9,453,112,106

$448,579,678

5.0 %

$25,031,804

0.3 %

3.3 %

$1,356,752,138

$66,313,354

5.1 %

$25,019,313

1.9 %

Non-General Funds
Highway User Revenue Fund

$3,657,869

6

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2016

Monthly Indicators
NATIONAL

ARIZONA

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau
of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.1% in the
first quarter of 2016. This estimate represents a modest
slowdown from weak 1.4% growth in the fourth quarter of
2015. The deceleration relative to the prior quarter was
primarily due to decreases in business investment and
federal spending and a slowdown in consumption
growth. Declining performance in these categories was
partly offset by increases in household investment and
state and local government spending. Based on the
pattern of quarterly growth seen in recent years,
economists expect that the low first quarter reading
could reflect a BEA measurement problem and that
growth will accelerate in the second quarter.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s coincident
index gauges current economic activity in each state.
The index combines 4 indicators: employment, average
hours worked in manufacturing, unemployment rate,
and inflation-adjusted wages.

The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence
Index increased 5.6 points in June, which represents the
largest single month increase since August 2015. The
monthly increase reflected improved optimism in both
consumers’ views of current employment prospects and
the outlook of the economy 6 months in the future. The
latest monthly survey was completed prior to Britain’s
vote to leave the European Union.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Economic Index
decreased by (0.2)% in May, but still stands 1.2% above
its May 2015 reading. The monthly percentage
decrease reverses some of the 0.6% increase in April. Of
the index’s 10 components, 7 made positive
contributions in May. The greatest positive contributions
came from movement in interest rates. Positive impacts
were partly offset by increases in initial claims for
unemployment insurance.
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau
of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Personal Consumption
Expenditure Price Index (PCEPI) increased 0.2% in May,
relative to April. The increase was driven by a 1.4%
monthly increase in energy prices. The overall index
stands 0.9% above the May 2015 level, which is well
below the Federal Reserve Bank’s 2% annual inflation
target. The low measure is largely due to a (10.9)% yearover-year decrease in energy prices. Annual growth in
the core index (all items except food and energy) has
grown by a steadier rate of 1.6% through May.

Arizona’s coincident index increased by 3.7% compared
to May 2015. Over the same time period, the U.S.
coincident index increased by 3.0%. See Appendix A –
Tracking Arizona’s Recovery for additional historical
information.
Housing
Single-family housing construction is accelerating, while
multi-family construction has peaked. Arizona’s 12month total of single-family building permits is 23,908,
or 25.1% more than a year ago. The comparable
single-family permit growth rate for the entire U.S. is
11.4%. See Appendix A – Tracking Arizona’s Recovery
for historical information.
The 12-month total of multi-family building permits was
increasing strongly compared to last year, but has
recently leveled off. Arizona’s total of 9,258 multifamily building permits is 8.1% more than 2015.
Arizona’s rate of increase is now similar to the
comparable multi-family permit growth for the U.S. as a
whole, which is 7.6% above 2015.
Employment
As of this writing, the Arizona Department of
Administration had not published state employment
and unemployment figures for the month of June.
In May, the Average Weekly Hours worked by
individuals in Arizona’s private sector was 35.0 hours.
This workload was the highest amount measured since
August 2015 and is 1.2% above the May 2015 level.
The Average Hourly Earnings received by these private
sector workers was $23.68, which is (1.0)% below the
average in the prior month. May earnings were 3.1%
above the average in May 2015, and represent the
third consecutive month of 3.0% growth or more.
The U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of
Economic Analysis quarterly releases estimates of
annual Personal Income received in each state. This
measure includes wages and salaries, proprietors’
income, dividends, interest, rent, and various
supplements to income while excluding capital gains,
contributions for government social insurance, and
pension benefit payments. In the first quarter of 2016,
Arizona personal income increased year-over-year by

7

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2016

Monthly Indicators (Continued)
4.8%, to $274.7 billion. Income from wages and salaries
grew by 5.7% on a year-over-year basis, which was the
highest rate of increase since the fourth quarter of 2012.
Tourism
Revenue per available room was $71.30 in May, which
was 6.9% above the amount in May 2015. Year-to-date,
revenue per available room is 3.3% above the 2015
year-to-date amount through May. Ridership during
May through Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport was flat
compared to May 2015.
State Agency Data
At the beginning of July 2016, the total AHCCCS
caseload was 1.8 million members. Since the federal
health care expansion in January 2014, the overall
AHCCCS population has grown by 549,900 members.
Total monthly enrollment increased by 3,600 members,
or 0.2%, during June. The overall June increase was
concentrated in the Traditional population of low
income parents and children. Enrollment in this
population increased 8,800, or 0.8%, in June. At a
combined level of 1,245,500 members, the Traditional
and Proposition 204 parent populations were 4.7%
higher than a year ago.
In January 2014, the state started accepting new
enrollment to the Proposition 204 childless adults
program. In June 2016, the childless adult population
decreased by (1,900), or (0.6)%. At 307,100, this
population is 8.9% higher than a year ago.
The state also opted to expand adult Medicaid
coverage to 133% of FPL. Their enrollment decreased
by (3,100) in June and now totals 80,300 individuals.
Enrollment is 22.7% higher than a year ago. The federal
government is currently paying 100% of this cost through
the end of calendar year 2016.
There were 20,163 TANF recipients in the state in June,
representing a 2.2% increase from May. The year-overyear number of TANF recipients has declined by (14.5)%.
The statutory lifetime limit on cash assistance was 24
months in June, but that limit changes to 12 months
starting in July 2016.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP),
formerly known as Food Stamps, provides assistance to
low-income households to purchase food. In June,
961,650 people received food stamp assistance in the
state, representing a 1.2% increase over May caseloads.
Compared to June caseloads last year, the level of
food stamp participation has declined by (3.7)%.

ADC reported an inmate population of 42,960 as of
June 30, 2016. The population increased by 0.1%
since May, and 0.6% since last June. The FY Criminal
Justice Budget Reconciliation Bill (Laws 2016, Chapter
119) session law provided that if the male inmate
count exceeds the April 2016 level of 38,762 male
inmates by 1,000 at the end of November 2016 that
the department has the authority after visiting the
JCCR to open 1,000 additional male private beds. At
the end of June, ADC reported 112 more male
prisoners than in April 2016.
As of April 2016, the Department of Child Safety
received 49,673 reports of child maltreatment in the
last 12 months, which was a decrease of (1.6)% over
the prior year. There were 18,861 children in out-ofhome care in April 2016, or (0.3)% fewer children than
in March 2016. Year-over-year, the number of out-ofhome children is up by 5.9%.

8

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2016
Table 6

MONTHLY INDICATORS
Indicator
Arizona
Employment
- Regular Unemployment Rate
- Total Unemployment Rate (discouraged/underemployed)
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Unemployment Insurance Recipients
- Non-Farm Employment - Total
Manufacturing
Construction
- Average Weekly Hours, Private Sector
- Average Hourly Earnings, Private Sector
Sales
- Retail Taxable Sales
Motor Vehicles/Misc. Auto
Furniture/Home Furnishings
Building Material/Lawn & Garden
Building
- Residential Building Permits (12-month avg)
Single-family
Multi-family
- Maricopa County/Other, Home Sales (ARMLS)
Single-Family (Pending Sales)
- Maricopa County/Other, Median Home Price (ARMLS)
Single-Family (Pending Sales)
- Phoenix S&P/C Home Price Index (2000 = 100)
- Maricopa Pending Foreclosures
- Greater Phoenix Total Housing Inventory, (ARMLS)
Tourism
- Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers
- National Park Visitors
- State Park Visitors
- Revenue Per Available Hotel Room
General Measures
- Arizona Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Arizona Coincident Index (July 1992 = 100)
- Arizona Leading Index -- 6 month projected growth
- Arizona Personal Income
- Arizona Population
- State Debt Rating
Standards & Poor’s/Moody’s
Outlook
Agency Measures
- AHCCCS Recipients
Acute Care Traditional
Prop 204 Childless Adults
Other Prop 204
Adult Expansion
Kids Care I
Long-Term Care – Elderly & DD
Emergency Services
- Department of Child Safety (DCS)
Annual Reports of Child Maltreatment (12-month total)
DCS Out-of-Home Children
Filled Caseworkers (1,406 Budgeted)
- ADC Inmate Growth
- Department of Economic Security
- TANF Recipients
- SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients
- Judiciary Probation Caseload
Non-Maricopa
Maricopa County
United States
- Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2009 dollars, SAAR)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Leading Indicators Index (2010 = 100)
- Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100)
- Personal Consumption Price Index (2009 = 100)

Time Period

Current Value

Change From
Prior Period

Change From
Prior Year

May
1st Q 2016
May
May
May
May
May
May
May

5.6%
11.7%
20,319
31,255
2,698,400
159,600
136,100
35.0
$23.68

0.1%
(1.1)%
(16.7)%
9.8%
(0.7)%
1.3%
1.1%
2.0%
(1.0)%

(0.5)%
(2.6)%
6.3%
(3.9)%
2.7%
1.6%
7.2%
1.2%
3.1%

May
May
May

$1.01 billion
$333.9 million
$440.2 million

(4.3)%
1.6%
3.7%

5.7%
6.1%
(0.9)%

May
May

23,908
9,258

0.1%
9.0%

25.1%
8.1%

May

7,038

7.6%

13.8%

May

$240,000

1.7%

9.1%

April
May
May

158.73
3,839
25,849

0.7%
(7.4)%
(4.3)%

5.5%
(28.6)%
5.1%

May
March
April
May

3.7 million
1,114,134
259,046
$71.30

0.0%
70.9%
(30.6)%
(17.3)%

0.0%
(1.3)%
(0.5)%
6.9%

2nd Q 2016
May
May
st
1 Q 2016
July 2015

80.0
225.51
0.8%
$274.7 billion
6,828,065

(2.0)%
0.0%
(1.7)%
1.1%
N/A

1.1%
3.7%
(3.9)%
4.8%
1.5%

May
May

AA / Aa2
Stable

N/A
N/A

N/A
N/A

July 1st

1,808,006
1,063,327
307,117
182,205
80,265
549
58,287
116,256

0.2%
0.8%
(0.6)%
(0.4)%
(3.7)%
(7.7)%
0.1%
0.4%

6.2%
2.1%
8.9%
22.8%
22.7%
(45.4)%
2.1%
8.5%

April 2016
April
June
June

49,673
18,861
1,355
42,960

(1.0)%
(0.3)%
28
0.1%

(1.6)%
5.9%
92
0.6%

June
June

20,163
961,650

2.2%
1.2%

(14.5)%
(3.7)%

May
May

18,525
27,689

(42)
(45)

229
856

$16.5 trillion

2.1%

1.1%

98.0
123.7
239.4
110.4

6.1%
(0.2)%
0.2%
0.2%

(1.8)%
1.2%
1.1%
0.9%

1st Q, 2016 (3rd
Estimate)
June
May
May
May

9

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2016

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
Arizona Department of Administration – Report on the
Financial Status of the Special Employee Insurance
Trust Fund – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 38-654G, the Arizona
Department of Administration (ADOA) is submitting
their required annual actuarial report on the financial
status of the Health Insurance Trust Fund (HITF). The
actuarial assumptions used to develop HITF projections
include healthcare trends (cost, utilization, and severity
of services), enrollment trends, and revenue projections
including legislative fund transfers. ADOA reported
that the plan is actuarial sound for Plan Year (PY) 2015
and 2016. For PY 2016, ADOA assumes an inflation and
utilization trend of 4.1% which consists of medical costs
increasing by 2.7 %, pharmaceutical costs increasing
by 9.4%, and enrollment increasing by 1.2%.
Compared to the FY 2015 balance of $339.8 million,
the projected HITF balance is $323.4 million at the end
of FY 2016 and $182.2 million at the end of FY 2017. In
addition, the FY 2017 General Appropriation Act
requires a $78.9 million transfer from HITF in FY 2017.
ADOA’s reserve strategy consists of fully funding
incurred but not reported (IBNR) liabilities and funding
a contingency reserve of approximately 15% of annual
expenses. (Rebecca Perrera)
Arizona Department of Administration - Report on
Performance Standards for Health and Dental Plans Pursuant to A.R.S. § 38-658B, the Arizona Department of
Administration (ADOA) submitted its reports on
performance standards for health and dental plans
during calendar year 2015. For 2015, health plans
missed anywhere from 0 to 6 performance measures in
at least 1 month and dental plans missed 0 to 1
performance measure. The number of performance
measures varied by vendor. Vendors are required to
submit corrective action plans after failing to meet
performance standards. In total, vendors paid
$581,200 in penalties during 2016 for missed standards
in 2015. In comparison, vendors paid $211,000 in
penalties last year. (Rebecca Perrera)
AHCCCS/Department of Health Services – Report on
Reconciliation Payments – Pursuant to the FY 2016
General Appropriation Act (Laws 2015, Chapter 8), the
Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System
(AHCCCS) and the Department of Health Services
(DHS) submitted their reports on reconciliation
payments and penalties received and deposited
during FY 2016. AHCCCS reports that during that 12month period they deposited $14.6 million into the
General Fund and $13.1 million into the Hospital
Assessment Fund, and used $89.2 million to offset
Federal Medicaid Authority expenditures from
reconciliation payments and penalties/sanctions. DHS
reports that $1.6 million from the General Fund and $3.1
million from Federal Medicaid Authority in payments
was returned from penalties/sanctions.

AHCCCS and DHS limit financial risks and profits for
health plans and Regional Behavioral Health
Authorities (RBHAs) for most Medicaid populations
(the maximum percentage of loss and profit varies by
Medicaid population). Reconciliation payments are
made by health plans/RBHAs to the state if profits
exceed the set level. A penalty, or sanction, may be
assessed against health plans/RBHAs for the failure to
demonstrate compliance with their contractual
responsibilities. Beginning in FY 2017, Laws 2015,
Chapters 19 and 195 transfer the administration of
state contracts with RHBAs from DHS to AHCCCS.
Pursuant to A.R.S. § 35-142.01, AHCCCS and DHS are
required to deposit monies received for reconciliation
payments and penalties received into the General
Fund or the fund from which the appropriation was
originally made. (Jon Stall)
Department of Corrections – Report on Health Care
Credits Taken Against Payments To Health Care
Vendor – The state can seek Medicaid
reimbursement for the costs of outside medical care
for eligible inmates. To receive reimbursement, the
care is paid by the Arizona Health Care Cost
Containment System (AHCCCS). The Department of
Corrections (ADC) pays the state match portion, and
AHCCCS covers the federal portion. Since ADC
already pays for all health care of inmates in state
facilities in the inmate health care services contract,
the total dollar amount of Medicaid expenditures is
offset on subsequent invoices by the vendor. The
savings to the department is the federal portion.
A.R.S. § 35-142.01 allows the department in the
current fiscal year to take credit against payments for
the total expenditures paid for hospitalization and
outside medical care from the current fiscal year or
previous years. The statute requires a report by July 1
for the credits taken for the previous fiscal year.
For FY 2016, the department took $10.7 million in
credits. This is a 23% increase over last year. The
department paid $1.5 million for the state match, and
received $9.2 million in net savings. Of the total
credited amount, $1,400 was for services rendered in
FY 2014, $3.8 million was for services rendered in FY
2015, and $6.9 million was for services rendered in FY
2016.
As of June 2016, ADC reported $9.3 million in credits
for services rendered in FY 2015. Of the credited
amount, $5.4 million was credited in FY 2015 and $3.8
million in FY 2016. (Micaela Larkin)
Department of Economic Security – Report on Arizona
Training Program at Coolidge (ATP-C) Campus and
Other Placements – A footnote in the FY 2016 General
Appropriation Act requires the Department of

10

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2016

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
Economic Security (DES) to report on placements of
developmentally-disabled (DD) clients into stateowned Intermediate Care Facilities for Individuals with
Intellectual Disabilities (ICF-IID) or at the ATP-C campus
in FY 2016. DES reports that there were 3 new
permanent placements into a state-operated ICF-IID in
Phoenix in FY 2016. These members were admitted to
the Phoenix ICF-IID after no skilled nursing facilities
would accept them due to their individual medical
issues. There were no new placements into any other
state-run ICF-IID or the ATP-C campus in FY 2016. (Tom
Ritland)
Department of Education – Report on Federal Monies
for English Learners – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-756.10,
paragraph 3, the Department of Education (ADE)
recently submitted a report that includes an itemized
list of all federal monies received by the department
for English language learners in FY 2016. ADE received
$14.1 million in federal Title III (Language Instruction for
Limited English Proficient and Immigrant Students)
funding for FY 2016. Of that amount, approximately
$13.4 million was distributed directly to school districts
and charter schools. The remaining $0.7 million was
used for state administration, technical assistance, and
to meet federal set-aside requirements for immigrant
education. (Steve Schimpp)
Department of Health Services – Report on Arnold v.
Sarn – Pursuant to a FY 2016 General Appropriation Act
footnote, the Department of Health Services (DHS) has
submitted the report for the third and fourth quarter of
FY 2016 on implementing the Arnold v. Sarn joint
agreement.
The state has been a longstanding defendant in the
Arnold v. Sarn litigation concerning the level of services
provided to the Seriously Mentally Ill (SMI) population.
In January 2014, both parties filed a joint agreement
with the court to terminate the lawsuit. The
agreement, which received court approval in
February 2014, requires expansion of certain services
by June 2016. These services include Assertive
Community Treatment (ACT), Peer Support, Supported
Employment, and Supportive Housing.
DHS has met the requirements for expanding capacity
for each of these service categories. Laws 2015,
Chapters 19 and 195 transferred behavioral health
services to the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment
System (AHCCCS). As a result, AHCCCS is now
responsible for ensuring adequate capacity of Arnold
v. Sarn services in FY 2017 and in subsequent years and
will submit this report in FY 2017.
Assertive Community Treatment (ACT): The joint
agreement requires DHS to establish 8 additional ACT
teams. ACT teams include more than 10 specialized

health care professionals that provide communitybased services that are tailored to the client’s needs.
DHS has added 2 teams since December 2015,
increasing the total number of ACT teams to 23. Since
the beginning of FY 2015, DHS has added a total of 8
ACT teams. DHS estimates that the cost per team
added is approximately $1.5 million, resulting in a Total
Fund cost of $11.6 million to add 8 teams, including $8.7
million from the General Fund.
Peer Support: The joint agreement requires DHS to
provide peer support services to an additional 1,500 SMI
clients. Peer support services are delivered in individual
and group settings by individuals who have personal
experience with mental illness, substance abuse, and
recovery. DHS has added a total of 2,212 clients since
the beginning of FY 2015, increasing the total number of
Class Members receiving peer support services to 4,535.
DHS estimates that the cost per client for such services is
approximately $1,100, resulting in a Total Fund cost of
$2.4 million for adding the 2,212 SMI clients, including
$1.8 million from the General Fund.
Supported Employment: The joint agreement requires
DHS to provide supported employment services to an
additional 750 SMI clients. Supported employment
services include assistance in attaining employment, job
coaching, transportation, specialized job training and
individually tailored supervision. DHS has added 819
clients since the beginning of FY 2015, increasing the
total number of Class Members receiving supported
employment services to 1,292. DHS estimates that the
cost per client for such services is approximately $1,600,
resulting in a Total Fund cost of $1.3 million for adding
the 819 clients, including $1 million from the General
Fund.
Supportive Housing: The joint agreement requires DHS
to provide supported housing services to an additional
1,200 SMI clients. Supportive housing includes financial
assistance such as rental subsidies as well as support
services to help clients obtain and maintain housing.
DHS has added 2,805 clients since the beginning of FY
2015, increasing the total number of Class Members
receiving supportive housing services to 5,350. DHS
estimates that the cost per client for such services is
approximately $26,300, resulting in a Total Fund cost of
$73.7 million to add the 2,805 clients, including $62.6
million from the General Fund. (Patrick Moran)
Ombudsman-Citizens Aide Office – Annual Report –
Pursuant to A.R.S. § 41-1376, the Ombudsman-Citizens
Aide is required to submit an annual report by January 1
summarizing their activities during the previous fiscal
year (FY), and semiannually present this report before
Legislative Council. The Ombudsman-Citizens Aide
issued an annual report for Calendar Year (CY) 2015
dated June 30, 2016. The CY 2015 annual report cites

11

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2016

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
examples of cases in the office’s 3 focus areas:
general complaints about state agencies, Department
of Child Safety cases, and public access cases. There
were 4,967 total cases in CY 2015 including 3,170
involving coaching, 1,412 needing assistance, and 385
requesting investigations. Of the 385 requests for
investigations, 250 were completed, 6 are ongoing, 68
were discontinued or the complaint was withdrawn,
and the Ombudsman declined to investigate 61. (Bob
Hull)

Universities – Report on Performance Funding – Pursuant
to a footnote in the FY 2017 General Appropriation Act
(Laws 2016, Chapter 117, Section 101), the Arizona
Board of Regents (ABOR) is to report to the Joint
Legislative Budget Committee (JLBC) by July 1, 2016 on
the final allocation of performance funding for each
university. ABOR received $5.0 million in FY 2017 for a
performance-based funding model. According to
ABOR, they allocated $2.7 million to Arizona State
University, $1.1 million to Northern Arizona University, and
$1.2 million to the University of Arizona. These amounts
are the same as the FY 2015 and FY 2016 performance
funding allocations. (Matt Beienburg)

June Spending
June 2016 General Fund spending of $828.9 million
was $276.5 million above June 2015. The spending
increase for the month is partly due to technical
factors as well as the result of payments to eliminate
the Universities, DCS and DCS “rollovers”. The
elimination of these deferred payments was
authorized as part of the May enacted budget.



Year to date, the Department of Education has
spent $114.3 million more than the prior year. This
spending growth is in part due to the funding
increase associated with Proposition 123.



In FY 2016, year-to-date Schools Facilities Board
spending increased by $50.9 million, due to
increased funding for building renewal, debt
service, and monies which are now being used for
the newly-created Public School Credit
Enhancement Program.



Universities’ spending increased by $98.3 million
during FY 2016. This is the result of 2 offsetting
factors: 1) The original FY 2016 budget contained
a $(99.0) million spending reduction; 2) The May
enacted budget included a one-time $200 million
spending increase for the Universities’ to eliminate
their payment deferral.

Year to date, spending is $9.54 billion, or $286.2 million
above last year. This level of spending was $28 million
above the amount assumed in the enacted budget.
(See Tables 7 & 8).


Department of Corrections spending increased by
$59.0 million during FY 2016. This spending is the
result of several operating funding increases: 1)
Retirement contribution rate increase; 2) Funding
for inmate health care inflation adjustments; and
3) Annualization of the cost of opening new prison
beds.
Table 7

General Fund Spending ($ in Millions)
Change From
June 16

YTD Change

June 15

Year-to-Date

from FY 15

(30.8)

Agency
AHCCCS

117.9

5.3

1,197.6

Corrections

82.5

(15.7)

1,037.2

59.0

Child Safety

25.9

(33.5)

414.3

113.4

Economic Security

42.6

100.5

519.9

(19.1)

Education

285.9

42.6

3,945.4

114.3

Health Serv ices

18.0

6.3

605.8

(9.1)

Public Safety

2.7

1.6

91.0

3.2

School Facilities Board

40.0

49.3

230.6

50.9

Univ ersities

155.8

110.2

869.7

98.3

0.0

0.0

84.1

(0.0)

Leaseback Debt Serv ice
Other

57.6

9.9

547.9

(93.9)

Total

828.9

276.5

9,543.5

286.2

12

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2016

Table 8

General Fund Spending
($ in Thousands)
Agency

June 16

Change from
June 15

Year-to-Date

YTD Change
from FY 15

Dept. of Admin./Automation Projects Fund
ADOA – Sale/Leaseback Debt Service
Office of Administrative Hearings
Commission of African-American Affairs
Department of Agriculture
AHCCCS
Attorney General
State Board of Charter Schools

6,077.1
63.7
8.8
634.0
117,934.4
3,141.5
72.1

(267.5)
9.7
(2.5)
(338.6)
5,329.8
(86.8)
8.6

31,064.4
84,114.6
861.7
126.7
8,240.6
1,197,554.2
23,720.5
1,046.3

(42,728.5)
(7.1)
(0.8)
86.3
(11.6)
(30,802.5)
318.6
148.2

Department of Child Safety
AZ Commerce Authority
Community Colleges
Corporation Commission
Department of Corrections
County Funding
AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind
Department of Economic Security
State Board of Education
Department of Education
DEMA
DEQ – WQARF
Office of Equal Opportunity
State Board of Equalization
Board of Executive Clemency
Department of Financial Institutions
Department of Fire, Bldg and Life Safety
State Forester
Department of Gaming
Arizona Geological Survey
Governor/OSPB
Department of Health Services
Arizona Historical Society
Prescott Historical Society of AZ
Independent Redistricting Comm.
Commission of Indian Affairs
Department of Insurance
Judiciary
Supreme/Superior Court
Court of Appeals
Department of Juvenile Corrections

25,937.9
2,283.3
2,686.2
66.1
82,454.4
1,155.7
42,639.3
86.5
285,885.8
4,409.9
9.5
54.5
77.1
202.4
187.3
1,318.5
53.7
655.8
18,020.3
185.2
65.8
103.6
10.8
442.2

(33,455.5)
(416.7)
2,686.2
8.6
(15,746.5)
(505.9)
100,507.8
(86.5)
42,614.0
4,155.4
(45.4)
10.2
(0.2)
(16.5)
31.8
(530.0)
(28.3)
(402.0)
6,269.9
3.0
8.1
70.0
3.9
(22.3)

414,294.3
26,800.0
54,255.1
609.0
1,037,172.5
6,000.5
23,122.1
519,887.9
1,195.3
3,945,377.7
14,441.6
7,000.0
187.4
543.7
909.1
2,929.6
2,207.5
8,745.0
1,794.4
936.9
10,089.2
605,775.7
3,157.2
898.0
1,759.9
57.6
5,069.5

113,405.2
(5,000.0)
(17,803.8)
(1.4)
59,009.6
(1,650.0)
1,896.5
(19,133.6)
990.8
114,251.8
6,356.5
(1.0)
40.9
(0.5)
(79.0)
270.2
(18.7)
1,794.4
(4.8)
(1,602.4)
(9,074.0)
1.5
88.2
823.7
3.0
(212.5)

2,589.1
1,340.2
3,491.7

(1,049.6)
9.3
(516.1)

90,730.7
14,300.5
25,669.2

(5,044.0)
(47.7)
(15,240.7)

13

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2016

Table 8 (Continued)

Agency
State Land Department
Legislature
Auditor General
House of Representatives
Joint Legislative Budget Comm.
Legislative Council
Senate
Mine Inspector
Nav. Streams & Adjudication
State Board of Nursing
Occupational Safety and Health Review
Arizona State Parks Board
Phoenix Convention Center
Pioneers’ Home
Comm. for Postsecondary Ed.
Department of Public Safety
Public Safety Personnel Retirement System
Arizona Department of Racing
Radiation Regulatory Agency
Real Estate Department
Department of Revenue
Rio Nuevo Distribution
School Facilities Board
Secretary of State
Tax Appeals Board
Office of Tourism
Department of Transportation
Universities
Board of Regents
Arizona State University
Northern Arizona University
University of Arizona
Department of Veteran Services
Department of Water Resources
Water Infrastructure Finance Authority
Department of Weights & Measures
Other - JP Salaries Distribution
Other - ADOT Capital
Other
Total

June 16

Change from
June 15

Year-to-Date

YTD Change
from FY 15

2,580.2

932.5

12,403.4

(103.0)

1,872.7
894.0
178.1
589.1
687.1
139.6
10.8
5.2
2,744.6
0.2
309.3
2,251.0
10,000.0
40,018.8
2,476.8
37.9
42.7

1,734.8
(49.1)
(34.7)
199.3
94.5
43.7
(10.3)
(66.4)
3.9
1,649.0
(82.8)
(55.3)
81.5
(2,363.8)
3,042.0
49,307.9
1,550.5
17.2
42.7

18,604.6
13,683.0
2,261.8
6,243.8
7,946.7
1,180.4
120.8
2.5
423.0
20,449.0
1,396.8
91,022.7
6,000.0
1,595.5
2,561.3
30,698.1
10,000.0
230,621.4
14,849.3
262.8
7,103.7
49.7

(234.7)
340.3
(46.6)
(1,607.4)
(739.6)
28.3
(68.2)
(150.0)
1.6
351.4
(1,599.2)
3,226.8
(2,014.4)
128.2
31.8
(15,750.9)
3,042.0
50,940.7
979.6
(0.8)
(2,000.0)
49.7

9,575.1
16,747.5
36,446.7
93,010.1
873.8
1,622.2
130.8
115.0
1,200.0
828,903.8

9,574.7
(4,809.6)
29,131.2
76,343.7
227.5
526.6
(23.5)
110.6
1,200.0
(23.1)
276,504.7

30,816.1
380,677.0
131,412.4
326,822.7
6,010.7
11,808.9
1,193.0
1,272.9
1,200.0
136.8
9,543,477.1

5,887.7
31,393.4
13,131.2
47,896.2
793.6
(0.5)
(3.8)
(170.4)
342.7
1,200.0
(121.2)
286,175.6

JLBC
Jan 11

Jul 14

Jul-15

3

JLBC
Jul 14
Jul 15
Jan 16

35,000

Jan 15

8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%

Jul 13

Jan 16

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jan 14

2,200

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jan 10

Jul 09

Jan 09

Jul 08

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jan 07

Jul 06

Jan 06

Jul 05

Jan 05

Jul 04

Jan 04

Jul 03

Jan 03

Jul 02

Jan 02

Jul 01

Jan 01

Thousands of Jobs
2,300

Jan 14

Jan 01
Jul 01
Jan 02
Jul 02
Jan 03
Jul 03
Jan 04
Jul 04
Jan 05
Jul 05
Jan 06
Jul 06
Jan 07
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 14
Jan 15
Jul 15
Jan 16

Year Over Year Growth (%)

2,400

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jan 10

Jul 09

Jan 09

Jul 08

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jan 07

3.1% Y/Y Growth
(May 2016)

Jul 06

$19

Jan 06

$20

Jul 05

$23.68 / Hour
(May 2016)

Jan 05

$23

Jul 04

$25

Jan 04

Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector

Jul 03

$22

Total Monthly Claims for UI Benefits

Jan-16

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

JLBC

Jul 02

Jan 11
July 11

1

Jan 03

Jan 10
July 10

2……Total Non-Farm Employment
3……Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector
4……Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
5……State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
6……State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting
Category
7……Residential Building Permits
8……Economic Activity Index

Jan 02

Jan 09
July 09

July 2016
Appendix A

Jul 01

Jan 01

Jan-16

Jan 08
July 08

$21

Jan-15

12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 07
July 07

$ / Hour

Page:

July 10

Jan 10

July 09

Jan 09

July 08

Jan 08

July 07

Jan 07

Year Over Year Growth (%)

Tracking Arizona’s Recovery

Total Non-Farm Employment

2,800

2,700

2,600

2,500

$22.73 / Hour
(Octoberjobs
2014)
2,698,400
(May 2016)

2,100

2.7% Y/Y Growth
(May 2016)

2

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

$24

45,000

40,000

30,000

20,319 Claims
(May 2016)

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

Not seasonally adjusted

4

State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category

State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting Category
$100

$225
$75

$ in Millions

$175

$150

$25

$191.8 million
(June 2016)

* January 2014 estimate adjusted downward by $30 million to reflect onetime category shift.

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

5

Jul 15

Jan 16

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jan 12

Jan 11

July 11

Jan 10

July 10

Jan 09

July 09

July 08

Jan 07

Jan 08

Jul 15

Jan 16

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jan 11

July 11

Jan 10

Jan 09

Jan 08

July 10

6

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

Economic Activity Index

Residential Building Permits
100,000

240

90,000

230

225.5 Index Value
(May 2016)

220

80,000

Coincident Index Value

Building Permits

July 09

JLBC

July 07

July 06

18.5% Y/Y Growth
(June 2016)
July 08

Jul 15

Jan 16

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jan 11

July 11

Jan 10

July 10

Jan 09

July 09

Jan 08

July 08

* Jan 14

JLBC

July 07

Jan 07

0.1% Y/Y Growth
(June 2016)

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

July 07

Year Over Year Growth (%)

Jul 15

$0

Jan 16

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

* Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jan 12

Jan 11

July 11

Jan 10

July 10

Jan 09

July 09

Jan 08

July 08

July 07

20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
July 06

Year Over Year Growth (%)

July 06

Jan 07

$100

Jan 07

$125

$40.5 million
(June 2016)

$50

July 06

$ in Millions

$200

70,000
60,000

Single Family Unit - 23,908 Permits
Multi-Family Unit - 9,258 Permits

50,000

(May 2016)
40,000
30,000

210
200
190
180
170

160

20,000
150

10,000

7

JLBC

Jul 15

Source: Coincident Index – Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Combines four state-level indicators
(employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary
disbursements) to summarize current economic conditions.

Jan 16

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jul 11

Jan 12

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jul 09

Jan 10

Jan 09

Jul 08

Jul 07

Jan 08

Jul 06

Jan 07

Jan 06

Jul 05

Jul 04

Jan 05

Jul 03

Jan 04

Jan 03

Jul 02

Jan 02

Jul 15

Jan 16

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jul 09

12-Month Moving Sum

Jan 10

Jul 08

Jan 09

Jul 07

Jan 08

Jul 06

Jan 07

Jan 06

Jul 05

Jul 04

Jan 05

Jul 03

Jan 04

Jul 02

Jan 03

Jan 02

Jul 01

Jan 01

JLBC

Jul 01

Jan 01

140

0

8