JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights

June 2016

Summary
1716 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Phone:
(602) 926-5491
Fax:
(602) 926-5416

www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

“Base year-todate General
Fund revenues
are 3.7%
above the
prior year, and
are $43.3
million above
the enacted
forecast.”

May General Fund revenues totaled $679.5
million, which was an increase of 4.6% above
the prior year. Collections for the month were
$(17.6) million below the enacted budget
forecast. The modest revenue growth seen in
May is the result of 2 offsetting factors.
The Individual Income Tax grew by 19.6% during
May, based on significant growth in withholding
collections. As reported in the April Monthly
Fiscal Highlights, the Department of Revenue
indicated that $38.3 million of cumulative
Individual Income Tax withholding revenues
were excluded from reporting so far this fiscal
year. This entire amount was recognized in the
May results, causing the strong growth in
Individual Income Tax and bringing collections
in the category to $22.7 million above forecast
for the month.
After recognizing the cumulative withholding
amount, year-to-date withholding collections
are 4.7% above the prior year, a growth rate
which is much more in line with the state’s
employment and wage growth. Previously
withholding growth had been in the 2-3%
range.

causes include the TPT Simplification Law that
went into effect in January 2015, along with the
increasing trend of online sales.
Excluding Urban Revenue Sharing and onetime transfers, base year-to-date General Fund
revenues are 3.7% above the prior year, and
are $43.3 million above the enacted forecast.
In comparison to revenue collections of $679.5
million, May 2016 spending was $624.9 million,
which is an increase of $81.3 million from the
prior year. The spending increase for the month
is the result of including FY 2016 spending
added in the May enacted budget.
Fiscal year-to-date, General Fund revenues of
$8.30 billion have been offset by $8.69 billion of
expenditures.
The state’s fiscal health can also be measured
by the operating fund balance. The state pays
its bills out of the operating fund balance,
which consists of the General Fund and certain
dedicated funds. The operating balance as of
mid-June 2016 is $2.3 billion. In addition, the
state’s Budget Stabilization Fund has a balance
of $460.7 million.

In contrast, Corporate Income Tax collections
declined by (39.6)% during May, ending up
$(22.9) million below forecast. This significant
decline is likely the result of the reduction in the
Corporate Income Tax rate.
In terms of the state’s other “Big 3” major
revenue category, Sales Tax continued its
sluggish growth. During May, the category
grew 3.4% and was $(6.2) million below
forecast. The reasons for the continued slow
growth in the category are unclear – potential

Table of Contents

This report has been
prepared for the Arizona
Legislature by the Joint
Legislative Budget
Committee Staff on
June 20, 2016.

Summary

• ADOA – Report on Private Leases ....................9

May Revenues ........................................................ 2

• Attorney General – Legal Settlements ............9

Monthly Indicators.................................................. 4

• DCS – Monthly Hiring Report........................... 10

JLBC Meeting .......................................................... 7

• ADE – Empowerment Scholarships Accts. ... 11

JCCR Meeting ......................................................... 7

• DPS – Quaterly GIITEM Fund ........................... 11

Summary of Recent Agency Reports

May Spending ...................................................... 12

• ADOA/Treasurer – General Fund Balance ..... 9

Tracking Arizona’s Recovery ............ Appendix A

2

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2016

May Revenues
Table 1

General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions)

May
Year-to-Date

FY 2016
Collections
$ 679.5
$ 8,301.2

Sales Tax collections of $357.6 million were 3.4% above
May of last year but $(6.2) million below forecast for the
month. May collections reflect sales activity that
occurred in April. Year to date, sales tax collections are
up by 2.6% compared to last year and $(51.4) million
below forecast. Table 2 below includes the major
categories of the state’s sales tax, which together
account for approximately 90% of total collections.
Contracting sales tax collections in May increased by
7.2% over the same month in the prior year. This was the
second consecutive year-over-year increase of the
contracting tax since January 2015. In prior months,
contracting growth was being reduced by the 2013 “TPT
Simplification” law that changed the tax base for
building materials from the contracting category to the
retail category, beginning in January 2015.
Retail tax collections increased by 1.8% in May
compared to the same month last year. Year to date,
retail sales tax growth is up by 6.2%. However, retail tax
growth has slowed significantly over the last 6 months.
The slowdown in retail growth is believed to be at least
partly attributable to the aforementioned “TPT
Simplification” law.
Table 2

Sales Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

Retail
Contracting
Use
Restaurant & Bar
Utilities

May
1.8%
7.2%
10.2%
6.5%
(1.8)%

YTD
6.2%
(12.2)%
0.7%
5.9%
1.8%

Difference From
Budget Forecast
$
(17.6)
$
43.3

Difference
From FY 2015
$
30.1
$
432.0

may additionally be explained by an increase in
processing days relative to May 2015.
May estimated and final payments of $23.4 million were
8.0% above last year and $0.9 million above the
forecast. Year-to-date, payments are 10.9% above
those collected during the same period of FY 2015.
April Individual Income Tax refunds totaled $(116.9)
million – this compares to $(77.6) million in May 2015 and
a forecasted amount of $(71.4) million. Year-to-date,
refunds have led to a $(11.1) million loss compared to
the enacted forecast.
Table 3

Individual Income Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

Withholding
Estimated/Final Payments
Refunds

May
28.7%
8.0%
50.7%

YTD
4.7%
10.9%
4.9%

Corporate Income Tax net collections were $38.5 million
in May, which was $(25.3) million less than in the prior
year and $(22.9) million below the forecast. Year to
date, collections are $(77.5) million below prior year
collections. This decrease is probably the result of the
decline in the Corporate Income Tax rate.
The Lottery Commission reports that April ticket sales
were $70.9 million, which is $5.6 million, or 8.5%, above
sales in April 2015. Year-to-date ticket sales are $733.5
million, which is 18.1% above last year’s sales. General
Fund Lottery distributions associated with the April sales
are not expected to occur until June.

Individual Income Tax net revenues of $283.7 million in
May were $46.5 million more than the prior year and $22.7
million above forecast for the month. Year-to-date,
revenue has grown 6.7% over the prior year.

Insurance Premium Tax collections of $40.8 million in May
were $(7.4) million below the prior year and $(2.8) million
below the forecast. Year-to-date, collections are 10.5%
above last year and $18.8 million above forecast.

As indicated in Table 3, withholding increased by 28.7%
above last year and was $67.3 million above the
forecast. The large monthly increase was primarily
driven by recognition of previously received, but
unreported withholding collections. The Department of
Revenue (DOR) discovered that $38.3 million of
withholding collections were excluded from revenue
reporting from July to April of this fiscal year. DOR
recognized the entire $38.3 million in its May withholding
revenue reporting, which increased year-to-date
withholding growth from 2.4% in April to 4.7% in May. A
portion of the monthly increase in withholding collections

Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) collections of $110.6
million in May were up 2.1% compared to May of last
year and were $2.9 million above forecast. Year-to-date
collections are 5.2% above last year and $21.4 million
above forecast.
Due to the implementation of a new accounting
system, DOR has made technical adjustments to prior
month collection figures. For May, DOR has increased
the amount of prior General Fund revenue collections
by $0.4 million, and the adjustment has been included in
the reported year-to-date results.

3
Table 4

General Fund Revenue:
Change from Previous Year and Budget Forecast
May 2016
Current Month

FY 2016 YTD (Eleven Months)

Change From
Actual

May 2015

May 2016

Amount

Change from
Budget Forecast

Percent

Amount

Actual

Percent

May 2015

May 2016

Amount

Budget Forecast
Percent

Amount

Percent

Taxes
Sales and Use

$357,638,545

$11,854,581

283,732,699

46,493,749

19.6

22,692,462

38,471,115

(25,252,232)

(39.6)

(22,940,615)

(37.4)

475,500,998

Property

2,077,751

(4,091,767)

(66.3)

(2,509,790)

(54.7)

Luxury - Tobacco

1,712,166

(290,224)

(14.5)

3,341,774

291,713

Income - Individual
- Corporate

- Liquor
Insurance Premium
Other Taxes
Sub-Total Taxes

3.4 %

9.6

($6,230,419)

(1.7) %
8.7

$3,947,186,609

$101,138,325

3,592,688,384

225,377,962
(77,497,561)

2.6 %
6.7
(14.0)

(4.3)

32,021,386

1,922,458

6.4

(744,959)

(2.3)

21,864,947

240,731

1.1

466,459

2.2

0

0.0

31,394,810

954,241

3.1

114,221

0.4

18,758,567

4.9

(15.3)

(2,835,244)

(6.5)

403,299,319

38,200,344

10.5

318,430

(198,105)

(38.4)

(295,366)

(48.1)

7,098,455

70,830

1.0

$8,511,054,906

$290,407,329

3.0 %

2.4

(21,251,051)

0.0

(7,402,576)

$21,405,140

(1.3) %

82,733,976

0

40,845,608

$728,138,088

($51,401,656)

($12,118,972)

(1.6) %

3.5 %

(217,932)
$28,457,625

(3.0)
0.3 %

Other Revenue
Lottery
License, Fees and Permits
Interest
Sales and Services
Other Miscellaneous
Disproportionate Share
Transfers and Reimbursements
Sub-Total Other Revenue
TOTAL BASE REVENUE

0

0

2,004,376

35,356

(27,936)
1,830,422
(3,483,125)

(281,013)
202,322

-1.8
-12.4

--

64,972,750

20,063,550

44.7

(555,948)

0

(21.7)

26,855,791

32,411

0.1

(293,667)

--

(96,596)

(5.0)

25,868,588

(3,734,834)

(7,730)

(290,858)

--

(52,940)

(0.2)

20,954,988

13,265,862

0

0

(36.0)

27,078,375

1,142,191

-4.6

---

1,473,868

2,545,843

--

$1,797,605

$8,411,358

-- %

($5,509,709)

(75.4) %

$165,722,762

$22,112,326

15.4 %

$14,809,759

9.8 %

$729,935,692

$29,816,498

4.3 %

($17,628,681)

(2.4) %

$8,676,777,667

$312,519,656

3.7 %

$43,267,384

0.5 %

-(28.7)

(4,309,625)

(2.9)

0

(10,905,699)

172.5

(295,519)

59.2

5,908,850

(828,663)

--

(791,881)

0

0

--

24,156,326

0
(5,091,734)

(17.1)
-(15.8)

Other Adjustments
Urban Revenue Sharing
One-Time Transfers
Sub-Total Other Adjustments
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE

(50,469,528)
0
(50,469,528)

275,114

--

(6)

0

--

0

0.0
--

(555,164,805)
179,597,255

116,473,752

3,026,261

--

(375,567,550)

119,500,014

-- %

184.5

(26)
0
(26)

0.0
0.0

275,114

-- %

(6)

0.0 %

0.0 %

$679,466,165

$30,091,612

4.6 %

($17,628,687)

(2.5) %

$8,301,210,118

$432,019,669

5.5 %

$43,267,358

0.5 %

$110,562,936

$2,300,413

2.1 %

2.7 %

$1,241,399,822

$61,198,684

5.2 %

$21,361,444

1.8 %

Non-General Funds
Highway User Revenue Fund

$2,868,490

4

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2016

Monthly Indicators
NATIONAL

ARIZONA

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau
of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.8% in the
first quarter of 2016. This estimate represents a further
slowdown from weak 1.4% growth in the fourth quarter of
2015. The deceleration relative to the prior quarter was
primarily due to decreases of (6.2)% in business
investment and (1.6)% in federal spending and a
slowdown in consumption growth (from 2.4% to 1.9%).
Declining performance in these categories was partly
offset by increases of 17.2% in household investment and
2.9% in state and local government spending. Based on
the pattern of quarterly growth seen in recent years,
economists expect that the low first quarter reading
could reflect a BEA measurement problem and that
growth will accelerate in the second quarter.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s coincident
index gauges current economic activity in each state.
The index combines 4 indicators: employment, average
hours worked in manufacturing, unemployment rate,
and inflation-adjusted wages.

The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence
Index decreased (2.1) points in May to a level that was
(2.1)% below the May 2015 reading. The monthly
decrease largely reflected pessimism in consumers’ view
of their current employment prospects, but also
represented a declining outlook of the economy 6
months in the future. The greater pessimism reflected in
the index is inconsistent with a May increase measured
by the alternative Consumer Sentiment Index.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Economic Index
increased by 0.6% in April and stands 1.9% above its April
2015 reading. The monthly percentage increase was
the largest since September 2015. Of the index’s 10
components, 9 made positive contributions in April while
1 made a negative contribution. The greatest positive
contributions came from movement in interest rates and
the increased average manufacturing workweek. Those
impacts were partly offset by decreasing consumer
sentiment.
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau
of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Personal Consumption
Expenditure Price Index (PCEPI) increased 0.3% in April,
relative to March. The increase was driven by a 3.8%
monthly increase in energy prices. The overall index
stands 1.1% above the April 2015 level, which is well
below the Federal Reserve Bank’s 2% annual inflation
target. The low measure is largely due to a (8.1)% yearover-year decrease in energy prices. Annual growth in
the core index (all items except food and energy) has
grown by a steadier rate of 1.6% through April.

Arizona’s coincident index increased by 4.1% compared
to April 2015. Over the same time period, the U.S.
coincident index increased by 3.1%. See Appendix A –
Tracking Arizona’s Recovery for additional historical
information.
Housing
Single-family housing construction is accelerating, while
multi-family construction has peaked. Arizona’s 12month total of single-family building permits is 23,882,
or 28.2% more than a year ago. The comparable
single-family permit growth rate for the entire U.S. is
10.7%. See Appendix A – Tracking Arizona’s Recovery
for historical information.
The 12-month total of multi-family building permits was
increasing strongly compared to last year, but has
recently leveled off. Arizona’s total of 8,491 multifamily building permits is (3.8)% less than 2015.
Arizona’s rate of increase is now significantly less than
the comparable multi-family permit growth for the U.S.
as a whole, which is 14.5% above 2015.
Employment
Based on labor data provided the Department of
Administration, the state lost (19,400) nonfarm jobs in
May compared to the prior month. This was more than
6 times the 10-year average net employment loss for
May of (3,100) jobs. Moreover, this was the largest
month-over-month job loss for May since at least 1960.
Two-thirds of the job losses occurred in the government
sector and the remaining one-third in the private
sector. Only 3 of the 11 major employment sectors
added net new jobs in May (manufacturing,
construction, and trade, transportation & utilities).
Compared to the same month in the prior year,
Arizona added 70,700 net new jobs in May, which is a
year-over-year increase of 2.7%. This was the lowest
year-over-year net employment gain since August
2015. The slowdown in job growth in Arizona in May
was not unique to our state. According to the federal
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. nonfarm
employment (not seasonally adjusted) in May grew at
its lowest (year-over-year) rate since February 2014.
The slower-than-expected job growth in May was also
the major reason behind the Federal Reserve Bank’s

5

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2016

Monthly Indicators (Continued)
decision to leave its short-term interest rate unchanged
in June. It remains to be seen whether Arizona and U.S.
nonfarm employment growth will slow further in the
coming months.
The state’s regular unemployment rate increased from
5.5% in April to 5.6% in May. This was also the second
consecutive month with an uptick in the state’s jobless
rate. The U.S. unemployment rate in May fell from 5.0% to
4.7%. The last time the U.S. unemployment rate was 4.7%
was just before the start of the last recession in December
2007.
In April, the Average Weekly Hours worked by
individuals in Arizona’s private sector was 34.3 hours.
This workload is unchanged from the prior month level,
but (1.2)% below the April 2015 level.
The Average Hourly Earnings received by these private
sector workers was $23.93, which is 0.9% above the
average in the prior month. April earnings were 3.8%
above the average in April 2015, the largest rate of
year-over-year growth realized since January 2010.
Tourism
Revenue per available room reached $86.17 in April,
which was 8.3% above the amount in April 2015. Yearto-date, revenue per available room is 2.6% above the
2015 year-to-date amount through April.
National Park visitations in March, as measured by the
National Park Service, decreased (1.3)% from the level
in March 2015. State Park visitations in April, as reported
by Arizona State Parks, decreased (0.5)% from the level
in April 2015.
State Agency Data
At the beginning of June 2016, the total AHCCCS
caseload was 1.8 million members. Since the federal
health care expansion in January 2014, the overall
AHCCCS population has grown by 546,200 members.
Total monthly enrollment increased by 15,400 members,
or 0.9%, during May. The overall May increase was
concentrated primarily in the Traditional population of
low income parents and children. Enrollment in this
population increased 14,700, or 1.4%, in May to a level
of 1,054,500 members. This jump was accompanied by
an enrollment increase of 600, or 0.3%, in the Proposition
204 parent population.
In January 2014, the state started accepting new
enrollment to the Proposition 204 childless adults
program. In May 2016, the childless adult population

increased by 1,500, or 0.5%. At 309,000, this
population is 10.7% higher than a year ago.
The state also opted to expand adult Medicaid
coverage to 133% of FPL. Their enrollment decreased
by (2,800) in May and now totals 83,300 individuals.
Enrollment is 35.4% higher than a year ago. The
federal government is currently paying 100% of this
cost through the end of calendar year 2016.
There were 19,720 TANF recipients in the state in May,
representing a (1.2)% decrease in monthly caseloads
from April. The year-over-year number of TANF
recipients has declined by (17.7)%. The statutory
lifetime limit on cash assistance is 24 months.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
(SNAP), formerly known as Food Stamps, provides
assistance to low-income households to purchase
food. This May, there were 950,056 SNAP recipients in
the state, representing a 0.2% increase from April
caseloads. Compared to May of last year, SNAP
participation declined by (4.6)%.
On May 31, 2016, ADC reported an inmate population
of 42,921. The population increased 0.1% since April,
and 1.1% increase since last year. The FY Criminal
Justice Budget Reconciliation Bill (Laws 2016, Chapter
119) session law provided that if the male inmate
count exceeds the April 2016 level of 38,762 male
inmates by 1,000 at the end of November 2016 that
the department has the authority after JCCR review
to open 1,000 additional male private beds. At the
end of May, ADC reported 38,871 male prisoners.

6

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2016
Table 5

MONTHLY INDICATORS

Indicator
Arizona
Employment
- Regular Unemployment Rate
- Total Unemployment Rate (discouraged/underemployed)
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Unemployment Insurance Recipients
- Non-Farm Employment - Total
Manufacturing
Construction
- Average Weekly Hours, Private Sector
- Average Hourly Earnings, Private Sector
Sales
- Retail Taxable Sales
Motor Vehicles/Misc. Auto
Furniture/Home Furnishings
Building Material/Lawn & Garden
Building
- Residential Building Permits (12-month avg)
Single-family
Multi-family
- Maricopa County/Other, Home Sales (ARMLS)
Single-Family (Pending Sales)
- Maricopa County/Other, Median Home Price (ARMLS)
Single-Family (Pending Sales)
- Phoenix S&P/C Home Price Index (2000 = 100)
- Maricopa Pending Foreclosures
- Greater Phoenix Total Housing Inventory, (ARMLS)
Tourism
- Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers
- National Park Visitors
- State Park Visitors
- Revenue Per Available Hotel Room
General Measures
- Arizona Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Arizona Coincident Index (July 1992 = 100)
- Arizona Leading Index -- 6 month projected growth
- Arizona Personal Income
- Arizona Population
- State Debt Rating
Standards & Poor’s/Moody’s
Outlook
Agency Measures
- AHCCCS Recipients
Acute Care Traditional
Prop 204 Childless Adults
Other Prop 204
Adult Expansion
Kids Care I
Long-Term Care – Elderly & DD
Emergency Services
- Department of Child Safety (DCS)
Annual Reports of Child Maltreatment (12-month total)
DCS Out-of-Home Children
Filled Caseworkers (1406 Budgeted)
- ADC Inmate Growth
- Department of Economic Security
- TANF Recipients
- SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients
- Judiciary Probation Caseload
Non-Maricopa
Maricopa County
United States
- Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2009 dollars, SAAR)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Leading Indicators Index (2010 = 100)
- Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100)
- Personal Consumption Price Index (2009 = 100)

Time Period

Current Value

Change From
Prior Period

Change From
Prior Year

May
1st Q 2016
April
May
May
May
May
April
April

5.6%
11.7%
24,381
31,255
2,698,400
159,600
136,100
34.3
$23.93

0.1%
(1.1)%
37.6%
9.8%
(0.7)%
1.3%
1.1%
0.0%
0.9%

(0.5)%
(2.6)%
0.4%
(3.9)%
2.7%
1.6%
7.2%
(1.2)%
3.8%

February
February
February

$900.6 million
$321.7 million
$340.9 million

(8.8)%
(24.4)%
(4.2)%

3.2%
(5.7)%
6.5%

April
April

23,882
8,491

0.3%
(6.4)%

28.2%
(3.8)%

April

6,542

(3.5)%

(7.8)%

April

$236,000

0.5%

6.2%

March
April
April

157.60
4,146
27,015

0.3%
(1.0)%
(2.4)%

5.6%
(25.8)%
4.3%

March
March
April
April

4.3 million
1,114,134
259,046
$86.17

26.4%
70.9%
(30.6)%
(26.8)%

1.5%
(1.3)%
(0.5)%
8.3%

2nd Q 2016
April
April
2015
July 2015

80.0
226.04
3.0%
$266.8 billion
6,828,065

(2.0)%
0.0%
(2.1)%
N/A
N/A

1.1%
4.1%
(2.3)%
4.6%
1.5%

May
May

AA / Aa2
Stable

N/A
N/A

N/A
N/A

June 1st

1,804,368
1,054,521
308,994
182,877
83,337
595
58,210
115,834

0.9%
1.4%
0.5%
0.3%
(3.2)%
(4.2)%
0.4%
1.1%

8.3%
4.8%
10.7%
15.9%
35.4%
(43.4)%
2.0%
11.7%

Feb. 2016
February
May
May

50,692
19,044
1,327
42,921

(0.4)%
1.0%
33
0.1%

2.7%
9.2%
0
1.1%

May
May

19,720
950,056

(1.2)%
0.2%

(17.7)%
(4.6)%

February
February

18,609
27,517

15
(2)

517
888

$16.5 trillion

2.0%

0.8%

92.6
123.9
238.9
110.3

(2.2)%
0.6%
0.4%
0.3%

(2.1)%
1.9%
1.1%
1.1%

1st Q, 2016
(2nd Estimate)
May
April
April
April

7

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2016

JLBC Meeting
At its June 16, 2016 meeting, the Joint Legislative
Budget Committee considered the following issues:
Arizona Department of Corrections – Review of Per
Diem Rate Change for Year 4 of Inmate Health Care
Contracted Services – The Committee gave a
favorable review of the Arizona Department of
Corrections’ (ADC) expenditure plan to increase the
inmate health care per diem from $11.60 to $12.06 at a
total FY 2017 cost of $2.7 million. The adjustment costs
$4.9 million. The FY 2017 budget funds $2.7 million for
this increase through accrued savings from the
Kingman refinancing, along with the lower-than
budgeted population growth and Medicaid savings
providing the other $2.2 million.
Arizona Department of Administration/Arizona
Department of Education – Review of AELAS
Expenditure Plan (Automation Projects Fund) – The
Committee gave a favorable review of an expenditure
plan of $7.3 from the Automation Projects Fund for the
Arizona Education Learning and Accountability System
(AELAS). The favorable review included numerous
provisions, including reporting requirements.
Secretary of State – Review of Election Services Line
Item Transfers – The Committee gave a favorable
review of a transfer of $712,000 from the Election
Services line item to the agency’s operating budget
during FY 2017. SOS requested review of the transfer in
order to fund various election activities that were not
included in the restrictions for the Election Services line
item.
Department of Public Safety – Review of Border Strike
Force Expenditure Plans – The Committee gave a
favorable review of the Department of Public Safety’s
(DPS) expenditure plan for the newly-created Border

Strike Task Force ongoing and one-time line items.
The Committee deferred reviewing the local support
line item. The favorable review included numerous
provisions with reporting requirements.
Department of Public Safety – Review of the
Expenditure Plan for the GIITEM Border Security and
Law Enforcement Subaccount – The Committee
gave a favorable review of DPS’ $2.9 FY 2017
expenditure plan for the Gang and Immigration
Intelligent Team Enforcement Mission (GIITEM). The
expenditure plan includes distributions to all 15
county sheriffs, 6 municipalities, and the Arizona
Department of Corrections.
Arizona Department of Administration/Department of
Child Safety – Review of CHILDS (Automation Projects
Fund) – The Committee gave a favorable review of
the Department of Child Safety’s (DCS) $300,000
expenditure plan from the Automation Projects Fund
for the Children’s Information Library and Data
Source (CHILDS) replacement project to develop
multiple Requests for Proposal (RFPs). The favorable
review included numerous provisions with reporting
requirements.
Department of Child Safety – Review of Contractor
Award for Backlog Privatization – The Committee
gave a favorable review of the DCS’ FY 2016
expenditure plan and a portion of the agency’s FY
2017 expenditure plan for awards to a contractor to
resolve backlog cases. The remaining amounts from
the FY 2017 appropriation will be reviewed upon DCS
submission of the complete set of awards. The FY
2017 budget included $2.7 million from the General
Fund for backlog privatization in each of FY 2016 and
FY 2017. The favorable review included provisions
with reporting requirements.

JCCR Meeting
At its June 16 meeting, the Joint Committee on Capital
Review considered the following issues:
Arizona Department of Corrections – Review of FY 2017
Building Renewal Allocation Plan – The Committee gave
a favorable review to the ADC proposed Building
Renewal plan totaling $5.5 million, which primarily funds
structural repairs, replacement of obsolete and
unreliable locking systems, and the replacement of
evaporative cooling at certain medical units. In
addition, the plan funds a variety of equipment
replacements and upgrades in units across the state.

Arizona Department of Administration/Arizona
Department of Corrections – Review of Lease-Purchase
Refinancing for Kingman – The Committee gave
favorable review of the refinancing agreement of the
Kingman private prison facility. The agreement is
expected to generate cost savings of $8.7 million per
year on an ongoing basis or $77.5 million in total. The
$8.7 M ongoing savings will be allocated as follows: 1)
ASP Kingman Adjustment - $2.5 million increase in the
per diem rate to the vendor to be used for increased
salaries, along with food price increases and health
care inflation; 2) $2.7 million of funding for the ADC

8

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2016

JCCR Meeting (Continued)
health-care adjustment in the corresponding JLBC
agenda item; 3) $1.6 million to open the Northern
Regional Community Corrections Center; and 4) $1.9
million remains unallocated. The favorable review
included a standard debt financing provision along
with a requirement that ADC seek review before the
expenditure of the unallocated monies.
Arizona Department of Administration – Review of FY
2017 Building Renewal Allocation Plan – The
Committee gave a favorable review of the ADOA
proposed Building Renewal Plan totaling $27.0 million,
with the following exceptions:
1) Review of the $500,000 of the $4.2 million
allocation for the 1740 West Adams renovation. Of
this amount, $350,000 funds demolition and
abatement and $150,000 funds architectural and
engineering design for major building systems. The
remaining $3,700,000 for the renovation of 1740
West Adams would be deferred until ADOA
receives review from the Committee on their
tenant relocation report.
2) No review of the $120,000 allocation for the repair
of the 1938 Works Progress Administration Civic
Building until certain legal requirements are met.
Statute does not permit ADOA to spend the
$120,000 until matching funds from the City of
Phoenix are received. When ADOA and the
Arizona Exposition and State Fair Board
subsequently request review of the 1938 WPA Civic
Building Project, they shall include information on
how total project funds will be spent and if the
repairs will be sufficient to make the building
operational.
The favorable review also included standard building
renewal provisions. The plan will fund a variety of
projects including fire alarm repairs, building
renovation, new roofing, parking lot repairs, and HVAC
replacement.
Arizona Exposition and State Fair Board – Review of the
FY 2016 Capital Improvement Expenditures – The
Committee gave favorable review of 6 capital projects
with a total cost of $291,000 in FY 2016. The review also
includes the provision that the State Fair report to the
JCCR if any proposed project exceeds the estimated
cost by 20% and requires notification for emergency
use of the State Fair’s building renewal appropriation.
Arizona Game and Fish Department – Review of FY
2017 Building Renewal Allocation Plan – The
Committee gave a favorable review of 3 capital
projects with a total cost of $243,100 in FY 2017. The
review includes a provision that requires Game and
Fish to seek JCCR review of any remaining funds from
the FY 2017 building renewal appropriation prior to
expenditure, in accordance with A.R.S. § 41-1252 A(4).

Department of Emergency and Military Affairs –
Review of Proposed Expenditures from the Military
Installment Fund – The Committee gave favorable
review of DEMA’s plan to expend $1.4 million from the
Military Installment Fund for 4 land purchases near
existing military facilities. The favorable review
includes the following provisions: 1) DEMA will adjust
the land purchases prices as necessary so that no
purchase exceeds the appraised value; and 2) DEMA
shall seek JCCR review if any proposed purchase
prices increases by more than 10%. The Committee
deferred review of land purchases near DavisMonthan Air Force Base and Fort Huachuca in order
to obtain more information.
Arizona State Parks Board – Review of Buckskin
Sanitary District Lease and Easement – The
Committee gave a favorable review of Arizona State
Parks Board’s (ASP) proposed lease and easement
agreement with the Buckskin Sanitary District. ASP will
provide a no cost 40-year land lease and easement
to the district for construction of the new sanitation
facilities that will be used for all district customers,
including 2 state parks. This arrangement is expected
to save ASP $1.3 million over the next 20-years due to
reduced wastewater treatment costs.
Arizona Department of Transportation – Review of DeIcer Buildings Project – The Committee gave
favorable review of the Arizona Department of
Transportation’s (ADOT) $2.3 million expenditure plan
for construction of 4 de-icer buildings using the State
Highway Fund. The FY 2016 Capital Outlay Bill
appropriated this amount for 5 buildings.
Arizona Department of Transportation – Review of
Vehicle Wash Systems Project – The Committee gave
favorable review of ADOT’s $2.3 million expenditure
plan to purchase 6 new vehicle wash systems using
the State Highway Fund. The FY 2015 Capital Outlay
Bill appropriated $3.0 million from the State Highway
Fund in FY 2015 for this purpose.
Arizona State University – Review of Sun Devil Stadium
Renovation Phase 3 – The Committee gave favorable
review to Arizona State University’s (ASU) request of
$75.7 million in University System revenue bond
issuances to fund the third and final phase of the
renovation of Sun Devil Stadium. The total cost of
Phase 3 is $96.0 million, consisting of $75.7 million from
the revenue bonds and $20.3 million of gift revenue.
The favorable review included standard university
financing provisions.
Arizona State University – Review of Biodesign C
Building Financing Project – The Committee gave a
favorable review to ASU’s request of $120.0 million in
University System revenue bond issuances to fund

9

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2016

JCCR Meeting (Continued)
construction of the Biodesign C building. The debt
service payments will be funded by indirect cost
recovery and tuition revenues. The favorable review
included standard university financing provisions.
Arizona State University – Review of Building Renewal
and Renovation Projects – The Committee gave a
favorable review to ASU’s request of $40.0 million in
University System revenue bond issuances to fund the
following 3 projects at all ASU campuses: building
renewal and campus infrastructure, classroom
renovations, and research laboratory renovations.
The debt service will be funded by tuition revenues.
The favorable review included standard university
financing options.
In addition, the review includes a provision that by
November 30, 2016, the Arizona Board of Regents
(ABOR), shall report to the Committee for a review of
their policy of determining the appropriate level of
each University’s financial liquidity and cash reserves.
The report shall include the following:
1. Metrics used to measure each University’s days
cash on hand
2. Current levels of days cash on hand
3. Benchmarks used to develop the cash reserve
policies.
4. The potential future use of cash reserves to finance
capital projects in place of using debt financing
University of Arizona – Review of Health Sciences
Innovation Building – The Committee gave a
favorable review to the University of Arizona’s (UA)

request of $165.0 million in University System revenue
bond issuances to fund construction of the 212,000
square foot Health Sciences Innovation Building. The
debt service payments will be funded by University of
Arizona Health Science (UAHS) fund and other local
funds. The favorable review included standard
university financing provisions.
University of Arizona – Review of Health Sciences
Alvernon Way Project – The Committee gave a
favorable review to UA’s request of $9.3 million in
University System revenue bond issuances to purchase
and renovate real property at 655 N. Alvernon Way in
Tucson to be used for UA programs previously located in
the Banner University Medical Center. The debt service
payments will be funded by University of Arizona Health
Science (UAHS) funds and other local funds. The
favorable review included standard university financing
provisions.
University of Arizona – Review of Phoenix Medical
Campus Lease – The Committee gave a favorable
review to UA’s request of $23.3 million in University
System revenue bond issuances to purchase previously
leased Phoenix Medical Campus buildings. The debt
service payments will be funded with University
revenues. The favorable review included standard
university financing options, along with a requirement
that ABOR report report to the Committee for a review
of their policy of determining the appropriate level of
each University’s financial liquidity and cash reserves
(same as the ASU provision noted previously).

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
ADOA/Treasurer – Report on Reconciliation of General
Fund Balance for FY 2015 – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 41-172A
and A.R.S. § 35-131F the Office of the State Treasurer
and the Arizona Department of Administration (ADOA)
are required to submit reports reconciling any
difference between agencies in the year-end General
Fund balance. ADOA and the Treasurer currently
report FY 2015 year-end General Fund balances
(including dedicated subaccounts and excluding
claims payable) of $701.9 million and $702.4 million,
respectively. The difference leaves an unreconciled
General Fund balance of $475,000. ADOA and the
Treasurer report that they will continue to try to isolate
the source of the difference. (Eric Billings)
Arizona Department of Administration – Report on
Private Leases – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 41-792D, the
Arizona Department of Administration (ADOA) is
biennially required to submit a report on all approved
office leases that exceeded the Lease Cost Review

Board’s (LCRB) estimated average cost per square foot
for privately-owned office space during the prior 2
years. ADOA approved 55 leases in FY 2015 and 51
leases in FY 2016. Ten of the leases approved in FY 2016
exceeded the LCRB’s $19.90 average cost per square
foot for privately-leased space. (Rebecca Perrera)
Attorney General – Quarterly Reports on Legal
Settlements – A.R.S. § 41-191.02B, 41-192J, 44-1531.01D,
and 44-1531.02D requires the Attorney General (AG) to
report quarterly to the JLBC on the receipts to and
disbursements from the Antitrust Enforcement Revolving
Fund, the Consumer Protection - Consumer Fraud
(CPCF) Revolving Fund and the Consumer Restitution
and Remediation Revolving Fund (including its 2
subaccounts), as well as deposits made to the General
Fund.
In the third quarter of FY 2016, the AG deposited a total
of $340,000 into various consumer accounts. Of that

10

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2016

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
2016 to the non-appropriated Restitution Subaccount to
compensate specific entities for economic loss resulting
from consumer fraud. Of that amount, $61,600 came
from small legal settlements and the remainder came
from interest income.

amount, $3,000 was deposited into the Antitrust
Enforcement Revolving Fund, $254,400 to the CPCF
Revolving Fund, $61,900 to the Restitution Subaccount,
and $20,700 to the Remediation Subaccount. An
additional $544,400 was deposited into the General
Fund. Only the $20,700 deposit to the Remediation
Subaccount requires JLBC review prior to expenditure.

Deposits to the Consumer Remediation Subaccount
The AG deposited $20,700 in the third quarter of FY 2016
to the partially-appropriated Remediation Subaccount
to rectify violations of consumer protection laws. These
revenues were interest income on the fund balance.
An expenditure plan must be reviewed by the JLBC
before any funds are spent from this account. Those
reviews have not yet occurred.

Deposits to the Antitrust Enforcement Revolving Fund
The AG deposited $3,000 in the third quarter of FY 2016
to the appropriated Antitrust Enforcement Revolving
Fund to pay for antitrust enforcement expenses
undertaken by the AG. The entire $3,000 in revenues
to the fund came from legal settlements.

Deposits to the General Fund
The AG deposited $544,400 in the third quarter of FY
2016 to the General Fund. These revenues were the
result of a settlement that the AG reached with the
cities of Hildale, Utah and Colorado City, Arizona as part
of the Cooke lawsuit. (Details of the lawsuit can be
found in the Deposits to the CPCF Revolving Fund
section above.) (Eric Billings)

Deposits to the CPCF Revolving Fund
The AG deposited $254,400 in the third quarter of FY
2016 to the appropriated CPCF Revolving Fund, which
may be used for any purpose permitted by statute.
The amount was derived from a settlement that the
AG reached with the defendants in the Cooke lawsuit.
The AG brought suit in federal court against the cities
of Hildale, Utah and Colorado City, Arizona claiming
that the cities had denied utilities and other
governmental services to citizens as a result of their
non-affiliation with the Fundamentalist Church of Jesus
Christ of Latter-Day Saints.

Department of Child Safety (DCS) — Monthly Report on
Hiring — Pursuant to a FY 2017 General Appropriation
Act footnote, DCS has reported on its progress in hiring
and retaining child safety staff through May 2016. (See
Table 6 below)

Deposits to the Consumer Restitution Subaccount
The AG deposited $61,900 in the third quarter of FY

Table 6
Change in the Department of Child Safety
Staff since January 2016

Direct Line Staff
Caseworkers
Hotline Staff
Staff in Training
Subtotal - Direct Line
Non-Direct Line Staff
Asst. Program Managers
Unit Superv isors
Case Aides
OCWI
Contracts and Procurement
Child Safety Support Admin.
CMDP Administration
Inspections Bureau
Other Non-Direct Line Staff
Subtotal - Non-Direct Line
Grand Total

January
2016
935
74

May
2016
970
76

Change thru
January 2016
35
2

286

281

(5)

1,295

1,327

32

40
217
280
75
17
54
56
35
621

40
216
256
84
18
86
79
56
546

0
(1)
(24)
9
1
32
23
21
(75)

1,395
2,690

1,381
2,708

(14)
18

11

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2016

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
Direct Line Child Safety Staff – Since January 2016, the
number of direct line child safety staff (caseworkers,
caseworkers in training, caseworkers awaiting training
and hotline staff) increased by 32 to 1,327. The
budgeted staffing level is 1,406. The number of staff
directly working cases increased by 35 FTE Positions to
970. The monthly turnover rate for direct line staff
declined from January to May, going from 2.8% in
January 2016 to 2.2% in May 2016. From April to May,
the number of direct line staff grew by 33.
Non-Direct Line Child Safety Staff - Since January 2016,
non-direct line child safety staff has decreased by (14)
to 1,381. The budgeted staffing level is 1,417 excluding
Attorney General positions. One of the most significant
changes in filled positions was associated with case
aides, which declined by (24) potions from January.
The turnover rate for non-direct line staff increased
from a January 2016 turnover rate of 1.9% to a May
2016 turnover rate of 2.4%. From April to May, the
number of non-direct line staff decreased by (53).
Department of Education – Report on Empowerment
Scholarship Accounts – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-2403G,
the Arizona Department of Education (ADE) provided
an estimate of how much it will cost to fund
Empowerment Scholarship Accounts (ESAs) for FY 2017.
In its report, ADE estimates that it will cost $37.0 million
to fund ESAs in FY 2017, which would be $10.0 million
above its current estimate for FY 2016. ADE likewise
estimates that program enrollment will grow by 1,498
students in FY 2017, increasing from 2,502 students in FY
2016 to 4,000 in FY 2017. The net cost of the ESA
program above what participating students would
receive through Basic State Aid if they were not ESA
participants is unknown because an unknown portion
of ESA recipients would attend private schools rather
than public schools apart from the program. Those
students would not generate offsetting Basic State Aid
costs for the program. (Steve Schimpp)
Department of Public Safety – Quarterly Report on the
GIITEM Fund – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 41-1724, the
Department of Public Safety (DPS) is required to report
quarterly on Gang and Immigration Intelligence Team
Enforcement Mission (GIITEM) Fund expenditures. In FY
2016, the GIITEM Fund was appropriated $2.6 million in
General Fund monies for grants to local law
enforcement agencies to help with border security.
During the third quarter of FY 2016 DPS expended
$452,700 primarily for the final payments of the
statutory $1.6 million and $500,000 distributions to the
Maricopa County Sheriff and Pinal County Sheriff,
respectively. These expenditures bring the year-todate total to $2.2 million.

Additionally, the GIITEM Border Security and Law
Enforcement Subaccount received $537,400 in criminal
fine and fee revenues in the third quarter of FY 2016,
bringing the year-to-date revenue total to $1.6 million.
DPS expended $182,900 in the third quarter for grants to
9 local law enforcement agencies and the Arizona
Department of Corrections for detention liaison officers,
GIITEM Border District positions, and other border
security purposes. (Eric Billings)

12

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2016

May Spending
May 2016 General Fund spending of $624.9 million
was $81.3 million above May 2015. The spending
increase for the month is the result of including FY
2016 spending added in the May enacted budget.
Year to date, spending is $8.69 billion, or $(11.4)
million below last year. (See Tables 7 & 8).

•

Year to date, the Department of Education has
spent $71.6 million more than the prior year. This
spending increase is expected to grow in June as
the disbursements enacted by Proposition 123
occur.

•

Universities’ spending increased by $81.4 million
during May. The enacted budget included a onetime $200 million spending increase for the
Universities’ to eliminate their payment deferral. A
portion of this allocation occurred in May.

Table 7
General Fund Spending ($ in Millions)
Change From

YTD Change

May 16

May 15

Year-to-Date

from FY 15

(36.1)

Agency
AHCCCS

89.2

(1.7)

1,079.6

Corrections

84.3

18.0

954.7

74.8

Child Safety

18.3

18.3

372.9

131.4
(125.4)

Economic Security

32.1

15.9

471.5

Education

225.4

(36.5)

3,659.5

71.6

Health Serv ices

11.1

(10.0)

587.8

(15.3)

Public Safety

1.8

0.2

88.3

1.6

School Facilities Board
Univ ersities

0.3

0.2

190.6

1.6

127.9

81.4

713.9

(11.9)

Leaseback Debt Serv ice

0.0

0.0

84.1

(0.0)

Other

34.5

(4.5)

490.6

(103.7)

Total

624.9

81.3

8,693.5

(11.4)

13

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2016

Table 8

General Fund Spending
($ in Thousands)
Agency
Dept. of Admin./Automation Projects Fund
ADOA – Sale/Leaseback Debt Service
Office of Administrative Hearings
Commission of African-American Affairs
Department of Agriculture
AHCCCS
Attorney General
State Board of Charter Schools
Department of Child Safety
AZ Commerce Authority
Community Colleges
Corporation Commission
Department of Corrections
County Funding
AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind
Department of Economic Security
State Board of Education
Department of Education
DEMA
DEQ – WQARF
Office of Equal Opportunity
State Board of Equalization
Board of Executive Clemency
Department of Financial Institutions
Department of Fire, Bldg and Life Safety
State Forester
Department of Gaming
Arizona Geological Survey
Governor/OSPB
Department of Health Services
Arizona Historical Society
Prescott Historical Society of AZ
Independent Redistricting Comm.
Commission of Indian Affairs
Department of Insurance
Judiciary
Supreme/Superior Court
Court of Appeals
Department of Juvenile Corrections

May 16
4,690.5
70.4
17.3
771.7
89,206.2
1,965.8
69.3
18,349.5
2,208.3
1,406.8
35.6
84,286.3
686.9
32,129.3
100.3
225,425.9
785.5
13.5
35.0
60.1
270.2
168.3
351.4
69.7
1,117.2
11,093.9
217.0
63.3
119.2
5.9
355.3

Change from
May 15
3,808.7
12.5
11.0
80.3
(1,675.4)
296.5
1.8
18,349.5
(416.7)
1,406.8
(10.3)
18,014.2
(1,342.0)
15,902.4
68.9
(36,518.2)
301.2
4.2
1.3
(1.4)
(0.4)
96.3
(232.3)
11.5
(918.2)
(10,000.5)
2.3
6.7
80.5
4.8
(29.8)

Year-to-Date
25,148.1
84,114.6
798.0
117.9
7,606.5
1,079,619.8
20,579.1
974.3
372,871.2
24,516.3
52,830.6
542.9
954,718.1
6,000.5
21,966.4
471,511.1
1,108.7
3,659,492.0
10,031.7
7,000.0
177.8
489.2
832.0
2,727.1
2,020.1
7,426.5
1,794.4
883.2
9,433.4
587,755.4
2,972.0
832.2
1,656.3
46.8
4,627.2

YTD Change
from FY 15
(42,300.2)
(7.1)
(10.5)
88.9
327.0
(36,132.3)
405.4
139.6
131,375.5
(4,583.7)
(19,228.3)
(10.0)
74,756.1
(1,650.0)
2,402.4
(125,378.9)
1,077.3
71,637.8
2,201.1
44.4
30.7
(0.3)
(62.5)
238.4
511.3
1,794.4
23.5
(1,200.5)
(15,343.9)
(1.5)
80.1
753.7
(0.8)
(190.2)

10,879.1
1,199.9
1,693.9

401.5
12.5
(1,989.4)

88,141.6
12,960.3
22,177.6

(3,994.4)
(57.0)
(14,724.6)

14

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2016

Table 8 (Continued)

Agency
State Land Department
Legislature
Auditor General
House of Representatives
Joint Legislative Budget Comm.
Legislative Council
Senate
Mine Inspector
Nav. Streams & Adjudication
Occupational Safety and Health Review
Arizona State Parks Board
Phoenix Convention Center
Pioneers’ Home
Comm. for Postsecondary Ed.
Department of Public Safety
Public Safety Personnel Retirement System
Arizona Department of Racing
Radiation Regulatory Agency
Real Estate Department
Department of Revenue
Rio Nuevo Distribution
School Facilities Board
Secretary of State
Tax Appeals Board
Office of Tourism
Department of Transportation
Universities
Board of Regents
Arizona State University
Northern Arizona University
University of Arizona
Department of Veteran Services
Department of Water Resources
Water Infrastructure Finance Authority
Department of Weights & Measures
Other - JP Salaries Distribution
Other
Total

May 16
642.0

Change from
May 15
(403.1)

Year-to-Date
9,823.2

YTD Change
from FY 15
(1,035.5)

(285.2)
978.7
161.8
382.9
650.4
88.2
8.2
1,835.2
0.6
194.2
618.2
343.4
1,089.0
-

(1,755.0)
(4.9)
(0.4)
17.4
34.4
(9.4)
(2.0)
(168.0)
154.3
(1.1)
(68.0)
(24.6)
(3,608.2)
240.2
473.3
3.2

16,731.9
12,789.0
2,083.7
5,654.7
7,259.6
1,040.9
110.0
2.5
417.8
20,449.0
1,396.8
88,278.1
6,000.0
1,595.3
2,252.0
28,447.1
190,602.6
12,372.6
224.9
7,103.7
7.1

(1,969.5)
389.4
(11.9)
(1,806.7)
(834.1)
(15.4)
(57.9)
1.6
417.8
(1,603.1)
1,577.8
(1,931.6)
183.5
(49.7)
(13,387.1)
1,632.8
(570.9)
(17.9)
(2,000.0)
6.1

687.7
107,133.2
5,951.9
14,080.3
586.8
1,049.4
4.2
75.9
(0.0)
624,933.5

(226.1)
85,574.0
(1,363.6)
(2,586.1)
(34.9)
(296.2)
996.2
(87.2)
(55.3)
(19.5)
81,258.7

21,241.0
363,929.5
94,965.7
233,812.6
5,136.9
10,186.6
1,062.2
1,158.0
136.8
8,693,511.0

(3,687.0)
36,202.9
(16,000.0)
(28,447.5)
566.2
(527.1)
(3.8)
(146.9)
232.1
(97.2)
(11,391.4)

JLBC
Jan 11

Jul 14

Jul-15

3

JLBC
Jul 14

Jul 15
Jan 16

35,000

Jan 15

8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%

Jul 13

Jan 16

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jan 14

2,200

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jan 10

Jul 09

Jan 09

Jul 08

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jan 07

Jul 06

Jan 06

Jul 05

Jan 05

Jul 04

Jan 04

Jul 03

Jan 03

Jul 02

Jan 02

Jul 01

Jan 01

Thousands of Jobs
2,300

Jan 14

Jan 01
Jul 01
Jan 02
Jul 02
Jan 03
Jul 03
Jan 04
Jul 04
Jan 05
Jul 05
Jan 06
Jul 06
Jan 07
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 14
Jan 15
Jul 15
Jan 16

Year Over Year Growth (%)

2,400

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jan 10

Jul 09

Jan 09

Jul 08

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jan 07

3.8% Y/Y Growth
(April 2016)

Jul 06

$19

Jan 06

$20

Jul 05

$23.93 / Hour
(April 2016)

Jan 05

$23

Jul 04

$25

Jan 04

Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector

Jul 03

$22

Total Monthly Claims for UI Benefits

Jan-16

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

JLBC

Jul 02

Jan 11
July 11

1

Jan 03

Jan 10
July 10

2……Total Non-Farm Employment
3……Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector
4……Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
5……State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
6……State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting
Category
7……Residential Building Permits
8……Economic Activity Index

Jan 02

Jan 09
July 09

June 2016
Appendix A

Jul 01

Jan 01

Jan-16

Jan 08
July 08

$21

Jan-15

12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 07
July 07

$ / Hour

Page:

July 10

Jan 10

July 09

Jan 09

July 08

Jan 08

July 07

Jan 07

Year Over Year Growth (%)

Tracking Arizona’s Recovery

Total Non-Farm Employment

2,800

2,700

2,600

2,500

$22.73 / Hour
(Octoberjobs
2014)
2,698,400
(May 2016)

2,100

2.7% Y/Y Growth
(May 2016)

2

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

$24

45,000

40,000

30,000

24,381 Claims
(April 2016)

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

Not seasonally adjusted

4

State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category

State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting Category
$100

$225
$75

$ in Millions

$175

$150

$25

$188.5 million
(May 2016)

* January 2014 estimate adjusted downward by $30 million to reflect onetime category shift.

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

5

Jul 15

Jan 16

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jan 12

Jan 11

July 11

Jan 10

July 10

Jan 09

July 09

July 08

Jan 07

Jan 08

Jul 15

Jan 16

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jan 11

July 11

Jan 10

Jan 09

July 09

Jan 08

July 10

6

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

Economic Activity Index

Residential Building Permits
100,000

240

90,000

230

226.0 Index Value
(April 2016)

220

80,000

Coincident Index Value

Building Permits

July 08

JLBC

July 07

7.2% Y/Y Growth
(May 2016)
July 07

Year Over Year Growth (%)

Jul 15
Jul 15

Jan 16

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jan 11

July 11

Jan 10

July 10

Jan 09

July 09

Jan 08

July 08

* Jan 14

JLBC

July 07

Jan 07

1.8% Y/Y Growth
(May 2016)

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

July 06

$0

Jan 16

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

* Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jan 12

Jan 11

July 11

Jan 10

July 10

Jan 09

July 09

Jan 08

July 08

July 07

20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
July 06

Year Over Year Growth (%)

July 06

Jan 07

$100

Jan 07

$125

$35.6 million
(May 2016)

$50

July 06

$ in Millions

$200

70,000
60,000

Single Family Unit - 23,882 Permits
Multi-Family Unit - 8,491 Permits

50,000

(April 2016)
40,000
30,000

210
200
190
180
170

160

20,000
150

10,000

7

JLBC

Jul 15

Source: Coincident Index – Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Combines four state-level indicators
(employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary
disbursements) to summarize current economic conditions.

Jan 16

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jul 11

Jan 12

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jul 09

Jan 10

Jul 08

Jan 09

Jul 07

Jan 08

Jul 06

Jan 07

Jan 06

Jul 05

Jul 04

Jan 05

Jul 03

Jan 04

Jan 03

Jul 02

Jan 02

Jul 15

Jan 16

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jul 11

Jan 12

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jul 09

12-Month Moving Sum

Jan 10

Jan 09

Jul 08

Jul 07

Jan 08

Jul 06

Jan 07

Jan 06

Jul 05

Jul 04

Jan 05

Jul 03

Jan 04

Jul 02

Jan 03

Jan 02

Jul 01

Jan 01

JLBC

Jul 01

Jan 01

140

0

8