JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights

February 2016

Summary
1716 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Phone:
(602) 926-5491
Fax:
(602) 926-5416

January 2016 General Fund revenues of $891.7
million were 4.4% above the prior year, and
were $(5.7) million below the Baseline forecast.
The mixed results were due to slower Sales Tax
growth offset by larger than expected growth
in Individual Income Tax payments.
Beginning with the February report, the Monthly
Fiscal Highlights compares actual revenue
collections to the Baseline consensus forecast
published last month. The Baseline forecast is
based on estimates that were presented at the
January Finance Advisory Committee meeting.

www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

“Year-to-date,
base General
Fund revenues
are 2.9%
above the
prior year.”

January Sales Tax revenues were 0.5% above
the prior year and $(15.7) million below
forecast. After accounting for Department of
Revenue technical adjustments, January Sales
Tax collections were 1.9% above last year.
Based on December sales during the holidays,
January is the state’s largest collections month
for the category. The poor Sales Tax
performance is likely the result of minimal
growth in retail sales, as evidenced by
nationwide reports of weaker than expected
purchasing during the holidays.
The state did, however, see forecast gains in
the Individual Income Tax category. Payments
increased significantly during the month,
posting a 27.5% gain compared to the prior
year. This growth was partially offset by an
increase in refunds, as the state begin
processing returns earlier in 2016 compared to
last tax season. In total, Individual Income Tax
was $12.4 million above forecast.
Year-to-date, base General Fund revenues are
2.9% above the prior year, and as noted above
are $(5.7) million below the Baseline forecast.

In comparison to revenue collections of $891.7
million, January 2016 spending was $569.4
million, which is a decrease of $(113.6) million
from the prior year.
Fiscal year-to-date, General Fund revenues of
$5.39 billion have been offset by $6.37 billion of
expenditures.
The state’s fiscal health can also be measured
by the operating fund balance. The state pays
its bills out of the operating fund balance,
which consists of the General Fund and certain
dedicated funds. The operating balance as of
mid-February 2016 is $2.1 billion. In addition,
the state’s Budget Stabilization Fund has a
balance of $459.7 million.
State Appropriations Limit Report
JLBC Staff is required to annually report by
February 15 on how state spending compares
to the constitutional appropriations limit. The
Arizona Constitution limits the appropriation of
certain state revenues to no more than 7.41%
of Arizona personal income. Total FY 2016 state
appropriations (both General and Other Funds)
are $15.47 billion, or 5.66% of personal income.
Under the JLBC Baseline, projected FY 2017
spending is $15.52 billion, which would be 5.52%
of personal income.
Truth in Taxation (TNT Report)
JLBC Staff recently reported the new Truth in
Taxation (TNT) rates for FY 2017, as required by
A.R.S. § 41-1276. Due to the growth in values
for new properties being higher than expected,
the cost of the FY 2017 Basic State Aid formula
will be $(5.8) million less than the JLBC Baseline.
The purpose of TNT is to offset the annual
change in the value of existing property
statewide with proportional Qualifying Tax Rate
and State Equalization Tax Rate changes.

Table of Contents

This report has been
prepared for the Arizona
Legislature by the Joint
Legislative Budget
Committee Staff on
February 22, 2016.

Summary
 State Appropriations Limit Report .................... 1
 Truth in Taxation Report ..................................... 1
January Revenues .................................................. 2
Monthly Indicators.................................................. 4
Summary of Recent Agency Reports
 ADOA – Debt Repayment Report ................... 7
 AHCCCS/DHS – Reconciliation Payments ..... 7
 DCS – Auditor General Recommendations ... 7
 DCS/ECDHB – Joint Report................................ 7
 DCS – Foster Care Medicaid Report ............... 8

 DCS – Semi-Annual Progress Report ................ 8
 DES – Domestic Violence Appropriation ........ 9
 ADE – Budget Status Report .............................. 9
 ADE – Data System Report ................................ 9
 Supreme Court – State Aid to Courts ............ 10
 PSPRS – Funding Status ..................................... 10
 DOR – Annual Enforcement Goals ................ 11
 ABOR – Report on Articulation ....................... 11

January Spending ................................................ 12
Tracking Arizona’s Recovery ............ Appendix A

2

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2016

January Revenues
Table 1

General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions)

January
Year-to-Date

FY 2016
Collections
$ 891.7
$ 5,390.9

Difference From
Budget Forecast
$
(5.7)
$
(5.7)

Sales Tax collections of $402.1 million were 0.5% above
January of last year but (3.7)% below forecast for the
month. Year to date, sales tax collections are up by 2.6%
compared to last year and $(15.7) million below forecast.
The Department of Revenue reported that technical
adjustments were made to retail TPT and use tax in
January. Absent these adjustments, total sales tax
collections would have increased by 1.9%, year over
year.
Table 2 below includes the major categories of the state’s
sales tax, which together account for approximately 90%
of total collections.
Among the major TPT categories, only retail and utility
sales increased compared to the same month in the
prior year. Absent the aforementioned technical
adjustment, the retail tax would have increased by 5.3%
rather than the reported growth of 4.7%. Similarly, the
use tax was reported to have decreased by (4.1)% in
January. Absent the technical adjustment, however,
use tax would have grown by 10.8%.
Table 2

Sales Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

Retail
Contracting
Use
Restaurant & Bar
Utilities

January
4.7%
(13.8)%
(4.1)%
(1.7)%
2.7%

YTD
8.4%
(17.3)%
(1.6)%
3.8%
2.0%

Individual Income Tax net revenues were $446.4 million in
January, which were $13.1 million more than the prior
year and $12.4 million above forecast for the month.
Year-to-date, revenue has grown 5.0% over the prior
year.
As indicated in Table 3, withholding increased by 2.2%
for the month and was $3.1 million above the forecast.
Year-to-date withholding collections are 2.7% above FY
2015.
January estimated and final payments of $117.2 million
were 27.5% above last year and $26.5 million above the
forecast. Year-to-date, payments are 24.0% above
those collected during the same period of FY 2015.
Strong payment and weak withholding collections yearto-date continues the pattern of collections seen in FY
2015.

Difference
From FY 2015
$
37.4
$
176.3

January Individual Income Tax refunds totaled $(27.6)
million – this compares to $(0.7) million in January 2015
and a forecasted amount of $(10.4) million. The
increase in refunds occurred due to a delay that the
Department of Revenue experienced in January 2015 in
issuing tax season refunds.
Table 3

Individual Income Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

Withholding
Estimated/Final Payments
Refunds

January
2.2%
27.5%
N/A%

YTD
2.7%
24.0%
30.5%

Corporate Income Tax net collections were $21.3 million
in January, which was 5.7% more than the prior year.
Collections for the month were $2.3 million above the
forecast. Year to date, collections are $(47.2) million
below prior year collections. This decrease is probably
the result of the decline in the Corporate Income Tax
rate.
The Lottery Commission reports that December ticket
sales were $76.5 million, which is $14.2 million, or 22.8%,
above sales in the prior year. Sales were bolstered by
Powerball ticket revenue, which grew by $6.3 million
above the December 2014 sales. Year-to-date ticket
sales are $380.0 million, which is 12.2% above last year’s
sales. In terms of General Fund collections, year-to-date
lottery revenues have increased by $12.2 million.
Insurance Premium Tax collections of $33.1 million in
January were $(0.7) million below the prior year and
$(1.7) million below the forecast. Year-to-date,
collections are 8.6% above last year.
Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) collections of $114.6
million in January were up 3.9% compared to January of
last year and were $2.9 million above forecast. Year-todate collections are 5.7% above last year.
Due to the implementation of a new accounting
system, DOR has made technical adjustments to prior
month collection figures. For January, DOR has
increased the amount of prior General Fund revenue
collections by $0.1 million, and the adjustment has been
included in the reported year-to-date results.

3
Table 4

General Fund Revenue:
Change from Previous Year and Budget Forecast
January 2016
Current Month

FY 2016 YTD (Seven Months)

Change From
Actual

January 2015

January 2016

Amount

Change from
Baseline Forecast

Percent

Amount

Actual

Percent

January 2015

January 2016

Amount

Baseline Forecast

Percent

Amount

Percent

Taxes
Sales and Use

$402,126,931

$1,963,729

0.5 %

$2,518,664,213

$64,555,605

2.6 %

446,394,828

13,092,103

3.0

12,352,995

2.8

2,535,130,519

120,482,446

5.0

21,343,708

1,144,268

5.7

2,269,805

11.9

278,482,336

Property

2,385,361

136,062

6.0

312,176

15.1

23,285,553

2,374,345

11.4

312,176

1.4

Luxury - Tobacco

1,960,675

(181,354)

(8.5)

(106,938)

(5.2)

14,126,951

82,105

0.6

(106,938)

(0.8)

(4.0)

(1,073,659)

(5.5)

8.6

(1,738,411)

(0.9)

(315,997)

(10.4)

Income - Individual
- Corporate

- Liquor
Insurance Premium
Other Taxes
Sub-Total Taxes

($15,666,548)

(3.7) %

2,694,089

(939,305)

(25.9)

(1,073,659)

(28.5)

18,583,659

33,120,213

(733,471)

(2.2)

(1,738,411)

(5.0)

191,019,525

64,030

(421,060)

(86.8)

(315,997)

(83.2)

2,720,315

$910,089,836

$14,060,971

1.6 %

14,612,975

14,612,975

2,185,684

(1,386,696)

(38.8)

536

(1,306)

913,461

(188,908)
(3,520,851)

($3,966,578)

(0.4) %

(47,204,428)

(776,878)
15,078,113
(593,430)

$5,582,013,071

$153,997,878

(14.5)

(17.9)
2.8 %

($15,666,548)

(0.6) %

12,352,995

0.5

2,269,805

0.8

($3,966,578)

(0.1) %

Other Revenue
Lottery
License, Fees and Permits
Interest
Sales and Services
Other Miscellaneous
Disproportionate Share
Transfers and Reimbursements
Sub-Total Other Revenue
TOTAL BASE REVENUE

(2,317,895)

--

14.3

27,544,450

12,217,850

79.7

(357,118)

(14.0)

17,409,558

(1,695,328)

(8.9)

(70.9)

(437)

(44.9)

10,634

(8,537)

(44.5)

(17.1)

(126,772)

(12.2)

9,581,802

13,577

0.1

(126,772)

(1.3)

--

(3,579,453)

--

18,611,280

3,667,202

24.5

(3,579,453)

(16.1)

--

1,833,547

0

0

4,266,803

1,161,273

$19,661,564

$10,676,487

118.8 %

($1,693,946)

$929,751,400

$24,737,458

2.7 %

($5,660,524)

37.4

0
536,287

-14.4

0

0

1,833,547

7.1

(357,118)

(2.0)

(437)

(3.9)

--

0

(32.2)

536,287

--

18,279,979

(8,697,905)

3.0

(7.9) %

$91,437,702

$5,496,858

6.4 %

($1,693,946)

(1.8) %

(0.6) %

$5,673,450,773

$159,494,736

2.9 %

($5,660,524)

(0.1) %

Other Adjustments
Urban Revenue Sharing
One-Time Transfers
Sub-Total Other Adjustments
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE

(50,469,528)

275,114

--

0

0.0

12,393,700

12,393,700

--

0

0.0

(38,075,828)

12,668,814

-- %

0

0.0 %

$891,675,572

$37,406,272

4.4 %

($5,660,524)

(0.6) %

$114,573,256

$4,324,556

3.9 %

$2,878,809

2.6 %

(353,286,694)
70,775,700
(282,510,994)

1,925,804
14,906,653

-26.7

0

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.0 %

16,832,457

-- %

$5,390,939,779

$176,327,193

3.4 %

($5,660,524)

(0.1) %

$776,139,401

$41,862,499

5.7 %

$2,878,809

0.4 %

Non-General Funds
Highway User Revenue Fund

4

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2016

Monthly Indicators
NATIONAL
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau
of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.7% in the
fourth quarter of 2015. This advance estimate represents
a slowdown from the 2.0% growth in the third quarter of
2015. The deceleration was primarily due to slower
growth in consumption and decreases in business
investment, exports and state and local government
spending. Declining performance in these categories
was partly offset by deceleration in imports and a pickup in federal government spending.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence
Index increased 1.8 points in January, continuing to
reverse part of a (10.0) point drop in October and
November. Economists believe low energy prices and
positive employment reports have helped to offset
negative impacts on consumer confidence from the
volatile stock market performance. While monthly
growth was positive, year-over-year growth decreased
(5.5)% from January 2015.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Economic Index
decreased by (0.2)% in December, its first decrease in 6
months. The index stands 2.7% above its December 2014
reading. Of the index’s 10 components, only 4 made
positive contributions in December while 5 made
negative contributions. The greatest drag on the index
came from decreases in building permits and
manufacturing orders. These impacts were partly offset
by movement in interest rates.
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau
of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Personal Consumption
Expenditure Price Index (PCEPI) decreased (0.1)% in
December, relative to November. The measure stands
at 0.6% above the December 2014 level. The index’s
annual growth has been pulled well below the Federal
Reserve Bank’s 2% annual inflation target, largely due to
a (13.6)% year-over-year decrease in energy prices.
Annual growth in the core index (all items except food
and energy), however, has grown by a steadier 1.4%
through December.
ARIZONA
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s coincident
index gauges current economic activity in each state.
The index combines 4 indicators: employment, average
hours worked in manufacturing, unemployment rate, and
inflation-adjusted wages.

Arizona’s coincident index increased by 4.4% compared
to December 2014. Over the same time period, the U.S.
coincident index increased by 3.2%. Currently, Arizona’s
rate of annual coincident index growth is 10th in the
nation. Last year at this time, Arizona’s rate was 32nd
highest among states. See Appendix A – Tracking
Arizona’s Recovery for additional historical information.
Housing
Single-family housing construction is accelerating, while
multi-family construction has peaked. Arizona’s 12month total of single-family building permits is 22,594,
or 28.7% more than a year ago. The comparable
single-family permit growth rate for the entire U.S. is
9.7%. See Appendix A – Tracking Arizona’s Recovery for
historical information.
The 12-month total of multi-family building permits was
increasing strongly compared to last year, but has
recently leveled off. Arizona’s total of 9,124 multifamily building permits is (11.5)% below 2014. Arizona’s
rate of increase is now significantly less than the
comparable multi-family permit growth for the U.S. as a
whole, which is 21.2% above 2014.
Employment
Due to the annual revision of employment date (also
known as “benchmarking”), January’s employment
and unemployment figures will not be released until the
second week of March. For this reason, this month’s
issue of Monthly Fiscal Highlights does not include these
employment statistics.
In December, the Average Weekly Hours worked by
individuals in Arizona’s private sector was 34.4 hours.
This workload is (0.6)% below the December 2014 level.
The Average Hourly Earnings received by these private
sector workers was $23.28, which is (0.9)% below the
average in the prior month. December earnings were
3.5% above the average in December 2014. This
represents the largest year-over-year growth rate in
hourly earnings since January 2010.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases estimates
quarterly for a broader measure of labor
underutilization called the total unemployment rate.
Besides the “regularly” unemployed, the measure also
includes persons who are available to work but
stopped looking for a job (“discouraged workers”), and
persons who had to settle for part-time employment
(“underemployed workers”). The Arizona rate
averaged 12.8% over the 4 quarters of 2015. This rate is

5

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2016

Monthly Indicators (Continued)
(0.8)% below the reading issued for the prior period. The
state’s total unemployment rate reading of 12.8% was
the second highest of any state. The national average
for the measure was 10.4% during 2015.
Tourism
Revenue per available room reached $51.81 in
December, which was 5.1% above the amount in
December 2014. Year-to-date, revenue per available
room is 11.5% above the 2014 year-to-date amount
through December. Ridership during December
through Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport increased 4.8%
above the level in December 2014.
State Agency Data
At the beginning of February 2016, the total AHCCCS
caseload was 1.79 million members. Since the federal
health care expansion in January 2014, the overall
AHCCCS population has grown by 534,100 members.
Total monthly enrollment decreased (0.6)% during
January, the second consecutive monthly decrease.
The overall decrease in January was largely due to
enrollment of Traditional population of lower income
children and their parents. Enrollment in this population
fell (12,900) (1.2%) in January to a level of 1,040,500
members. This drop was accompanied by an
enrollment decrease of (1,700), or (0.9)%, in the
Proposition 204 Parent population.
In January 2014, the state started accepting new
enrollment to the Proposition 204 childless adults
program. In January 2016, the childless adult
population increased by 700, or 0.2%. At 307,200, this
population is 11.4% higher than a year ago.
The state also opted to expand adult Medicaid
coverage to 133% of FPL. Their enrollment increased by
3,700 in January and now totals 83,300 individuals.
Enrollment is 123.0% higher than a year ago. The federal
government is currently paying 100% of this cost.
Based on information the Department of Child Safety
provided for November 2015, reports of child
maltreatment totaled 51,133 over the last 12 months, an
increase of 5.8% over the prior year. There were 18,927
children in out-of-home care as of November 2015, or
11.2% more than in November 2015. Compared to the
prior month, the number of out-of-home children
increased by 0.1%.
There were 21,743 TANF recipients in the state in
February, representing a (4.3)% decrease in monthly
caseloads from January. The year-over-year number of

TANF recipients has declined by (19.2)%. The statutory
lifetime limit on cash assistance is 24 months.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
(SNAP), formerly known as Food Stamps, provides
assistance to low-income households to purchase
food. This January, there were 975,052 food stamp
recipients in the state, representing a (1.3)% decrease
from December caseloads. Compared to January of
last year, food stamp participation declined by (4.5)%.
The Arizona Department of Corrections reported an
inmate population of 42,685 on January 31, 2015. This
was a (0.1)% decrease since December. This was a
1.5% increase since last January.

6

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2016
Table 5

MONTHLY INDICATORS
Indicator
Arizona
Employment
- Regular Unemployment Rate
- Total Unemployment Rate (discouraged/underemployed)
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Unemployment Insurance Recipients
- Non-Farm Employment - Total
Manufacturing
Construction
- Average Weekly Hours, Private Sector
- Average Hourly Earnings, Private Sector
Sales
- Retail Taxable Sales
Motor Vehicles/Misc. Auto
Furniture/Home Furnishings
Building Material/Lawn & Garden
Building
- Residential Building Permits (12-month avg)
Single-family
Multi-family
- Maricopa County/Other, Home Sales (ARMLS)
Single-Family (Pending Sales)
- Maricopa County/Other, Median Home Price (ARMLS)
Single-Family (Pending Sales)
- Phoenix S&P/C Home Price Index (2000 = 100)
- Maricopa Pending Foreclosures
- Greater Phoenix Total Housing Inventory, (ARMLS)
Tourism
- Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers
- National Park Visitors
- State Park Visitors
- Revenue Per Available Hotel Room
General Measures
- Arizona Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Arizona Coincident Index (July 1992 = 100)
- Arizona Leading Index -- 6 month projected growth
- Arizona Personal Income
- Arizona Population
- State Debt Rating
Standards & Poor’s/Moody’s
Outlook
Agency Measures
- AHCCCS Recipients
Acute Care Traditional
Prop 204 Childless Adults
Other Prop 204
Adult Expansion
Kids Care I
Long-Term Care – Elderly & DD
Emergency Services
- Department of Child Safety (DCS)
Annual Reports of Child Maltreatment (12-month total)
DCS Out-of-Home Children
Filled Caseworkers (1406 Budgeted)
- ADC Inmate Growth
- Department of Economic Security
- TANF Recipients
- SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients
- Judiciary Probation Caseload
Non-Maricopa
Maricopa County
United States
- Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2009 dollars, SAAR)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Leading Indicators Index (2010 = 100)
- Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100)
- Personal Consumption Price Index (2009 = 100)

Time Period

Current Value

Change From
Prior Period

Change From
Prior Year

December
4th Q 2015
December
August
December
December
December
December
December

5.8%
12.8%
16,020
29,157
2,709,500
156,900
132,300
34.40
$23.28

(0.2)%
(0.8)%
2.1%
(23.0)%
0.6%
(0.1)%
(1.6)%
(0.6)%
(0.9)%

(0.8)%
(1.9)%
(6.5)%
(32.2)%
2.5%
0.4%
5.0%
(0.6)%
3.5%

November
November
November

$976.0 million
$303.1 million
$387.3 million

5.1%
(11.5)%
8.6%

15.0%
(2.0)%
16.1%

December
December

22,594
9,124

1.8%
(6.8)%

28.7%
(11.5)%

December

3,884

(26.3)%

8.9%

December

$229,900

0.0%

12.8%

November
December
December

156.47
4,261
22,897

0.3%
(2.8)%
(8.1)%

5.9%
(26.0)%
(8.2)%

December
September
November
December

3.71 million
1,382,544
176,658
$51.81

4.8%
(24.3)%
(12.0)%
(19.5)%

(0.7)%
12.4%
6.9%
5.1%

1st Q 2016
December
December
3rd Q 2015
July 2015

81.6
223.38
7.0%
$269.5 billion
6,828,065

May
May

0.5%
0.6%
0.1%
1.4%
N/A

3.2%
4.4%
3.5%
5.2%
1.5%

AA / Aa2
Stable

N/A
N/A

N/A
N/A

February 1st

1,792,244
1,040,482
307,162
187,935
82,315
730
57,662
114,958

(0.6)%
(1.2)%
0.2%
(0.9)%
4.7%
(5.8)%
(0.1)%
0.1%

13.4%
9.4%
11.4%
13.9%
123.0%
(56.2)%
2.0%
23.7%

Nov. 2015
November
December
January

51,133
18,927
1,309
42,685

0.0%
0.1%
N/A
(0.1)%

January
January

21,743
975,052

(4.3)%
(1.3)%

November
November

18,579
27,441

105
47

603
1,183

$16.4 trillion

1.8%

0.7%

98.1
123.7
237.8
109.7

1.9%
(0.2)%
(0.1)%
(0.1)%

(5.5)%
2.7%
0.7%
0.6%

4th Q, 2015 (1st
Estimate)
January
December
December
December

5.8%
11.2%
(35)
1.5%
(19.2)%
(4.5)%

7

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2016

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
Arizona Department of Administration – Report on
Repayment of State Debt and Obligations – Pursuant
to A.R.S. § 41-726, the Arizona Department of
Administration (ADOA) is required to report on the
amount of potential savings if the state repays the
balance of any outstanding long-term General Fund
financing obligations, under the following repayment
scenarios: $50 million, $100 million, $150 million, and
$200 million. Under the 4 repayment scenarios, ADOA
reported the following net lifetime savings in debt
service payments:

$50 million repayment – $22.4 million

$100 million repayment – $46.4 million

$150 million repayment – $68.5 million

$200 million repayment – $89.0 million
(Josh Hope)
AHCCCS/Department of Health Services - Report on
Reconciliation Payments - Pursuant to the FY 2016
General Appropriation Act (Laws 2015, Chapter 8), the
Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System
(AHCCCS) and the Department of Health Services
(DHS) submitted their reports on reconciliation
payments and penalties received and deposited
during the first 6 months of FY 2016. AHCCCS reports
that during that 6-month period they deposited $4.0
million into the General Fund and used $7.8 million to
offset Federal Medicaid Authority expenditures from
reconciliation payments and penalties/sanctions. DHS
reports that $1.5 million from the General Fund and
$2.9 million from Federal Medicaid Authority in
payments was returned from penalties/sanctions.
AHCCCS and DHS limit financial risks and profits for
health plans and Regional Behavioral Health
Authorities (RBHAs) for most Medicaid populations (the
maximum percentage of loss and profit varies by
Medicaid population). Reconciliation payments are
made to health plans/RBHAs or the agency if losses or
profits exceed the set level. A penalty, or sanction,
may be assessed against health plans/RBHAs for the
failure to demonstrate compliance with their
contractual responsibilities.
Pursuant to A.R.S. § 35-142.01, AHCCCS and DHS are
required to deposit monies received for reconciliation
payments and penalties received into the General
Fund or the fund from which the appropriation was
originally made. (Jon Stall)
Department of Child Safety – Report on
Implementation of Auditor General Recommendations
– Laws 2013, 1st Special Session, Chapter 10 instructed

the Auditor General to submit a report addressing (1)
expenditures for transportation as part of children
support services and (2) emergency and residential
placements. The Auditor General made 9
recommendations for transportation services in March
2014 and 7 recommendations for emergency and
residential placements in October 2014.
Subsequent to the Auditor General’s recommendations
and pursuant to a footnote in the FY 2016 General
Appropriation Act, the Department of Child Safety
(DCS) is reporting on its progress in implementing the
Auditor General’s recommendations to improve
transportation services and reduce the use of
emergency and residential placements.
According to DCS, of the 9 Auditor General
recommendations for transportation services, 4 had
been implemented; another 4 transportation
recommendations are in the process of being
implemented, and 1 concerning supervisory review
prior to payment had not been implemented but was
being addressed in a different manner.
Of the 7 Auditor General recommendations for
emergency and residential placements, 1 had been
implemented. Another 5 are in the process of being
implemented, and DCS did not plan to implement the
final recommendation concerning foster care receiving
homes. Many of these recommendations are in the
process of being implemented as part of DCS’ Title IV-E
waiver focused on reducing the length of stay for
children in emergency and residential placements.
(Ben Beutler)
Department of Child Safety – DCS/ECDHB Joint Report –
The FY 2016 Human Services Budget Reconciliation Bill
(Laws 2015, Chapter 18) requires the Department of
Child Safety (DCS) and the Early Childhood
Development and Health Board (ECDHB) to report on
their collaborative efforts to address child welfare issues
of common concern, specifically the level of
coordination among DCS, ECDHB, and community
groups to promote the well-being of children and
families that are identified in reports of abuse or
neglect. Below is a summary of the major efforts listed
in the report:




Enhanced Collaboration: ECDHB has trained DCS
caseworkers on ECDHB-funded resources in their
communities that support families with young
children, such as child care, home visitation and
parenting education.
Office of Prevention and Family Services: DCS
recently hired a new prevention administrator to

8

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2016

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
oversee this office tasked with operating a number
of programs and services that strengthen
communities and families. ECDHB is committed to
working with the new prevention administrator to
strengthen and develop prevention policies and
programs.

Court Teams Program: The focus of this program is
to improve how the courts, child welfare, and child
serving organizations work together to protect
infants in the child welfare system from further
harm.

Child Care Funding: ECDHB anticipates providing
$30.0 million of matching dollars to draw down
about $37.1 million of matching federal monies in
federal fiscal year (FFY) 2016. The $30.0 million
would provide child care scholarships to children.
ECDHB helps about 16,600 children annually with
child care and preschool scholarships.

Building Awareness of the Impact of Abuse or
Neglect on Young Children: ECDHB sponsors an
annual Child Abuse Prevention Conference, which
featured national experts and workshops aimed at
preventing child maltreatment and improving
Arizona’s child protective system.

Healthy Families Arizona: This is a home visitation
program that is designed to strengthen families
during the first 5 years of a child’s life. Although
DCS administers the program, it is funded jointly by
ECDHB and DCS. In FY 2015, 4,911 families were
served statewide.

ECDHB Community-Based Parenting Education:
These educational sessions increase parental
knowledge of child development and parenting
skills, improve parent and child interactions and
decrease rates of child maltreatment. In FY 2015,
6,925 parents and caregivers completed the series
of voluntary classes.

ECDHB Birth to 5 Helpline: Staffed by nurses and
early childhood development experts, the helpline
answers parenting questions from caregivers with a
child 5 or younger.
(Ben Beutler)
Department of Child Safety – Quarterly Report on Foster
Care Medicaid – Pursuant to Laws 2013, Chapter 220,
the Department of Child Safety (DCS) is required to
report on foster care and Medicaid eligibility.
During the second quarter of FY 2016, DCS reports the
following trends on foster care and Medicaid eligibility:
1. There were 17,362 children eligible for Medicaid in
foster care at the end of the second quarter, up
6.5% from 16,291 at the end of the first quarter of
FY 2016.
2. The percentage of foster care children eligible for

3.

4.

Medicaid increased from 94% at the end of the first
quarter of FY 2016 to 97% at the end of the second
quarter of FY 2016.
The amount of non-Medicaid behavioral health
group home expenditures used by DCS to
supplement Medicaid behavioral health placement
services was $971,800 in the second quarter of FY
2016.
The amount of non-Medicaid behavioral health
evaluation/counseling expenditures used by DCS to
supplement Medicaid behavioral health services
was $54,600 in the second quarter of FY 2016. (Ben
Beutler)

Department of Child Safety (DCS) – Semi-Annual
Progress Report – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 8-818, DCS has
submitted its semi-annual financial and program
accountability report covering the period of July 2015
through December 2015.
According to the report, out-of-home placements
increased by 3.8% from 18,219 in July to 18,912 in
December. Caseloads are above the department’s
goals and caseworker turnover was approximately
36.2%. Employee satisfaction remained the same at a
3.5 rating on a 5 point scale. The contents of this report,
covering the first 6 months of FY 2016, are summarized
below.








The Training Academy had 351 new caseworkers in
training as of December 2015. During the time
period from July 2015 to December 2015, 74
caseworkers graduated from the Training
Academy, or (25) fewer graduates than in the
previous 6-month period.
DCS reports that annualized caseworker turnover
during July - December 2015 was 36.2%, up from a
35.4% annualized rate in the last report. The 36.2%
turnover figure did not include caseworkers
promoted to a non-caseworker position within DCS,
unlike previous reports which included internal
promotion in the turnover figure.
The percent of Office of Administrative Hearings
decisions affirming DCS case findings increased
from 66.7% to 73.2%. The percent of complaints
validated by the Ombudsman increased from
22.7% to 25.8%.
The number of congregate care placements
increased from 2,535 to 2,693, a 6.2% increase. DCS
also reports that from June to December the
number of children aged 0-3 in shelter care grew
from 44 to 49, the number of children aged 0-6 in
group homes increased from 84 to 87, and the
number of children in shelter care for more than 21
days decreased from 916 to 830.

9

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2016

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)


As of December 2015, workload per caseworker
remains considerably higher than the revised
caseload goals established during the May 2014
Special Session, with investigations at 25 (goal: 13),
in-home cases at 43 (goal: 33), and out-of-home
children at 30 (goal: 20). There may be a technical
issue with the investigations caseworker workload
estimate, which is currently being resolved.

programs). ADE’s current $(12.2) million shortfall
estimate is subject to further revision as additional data
become available. (Steve Schimpp)
Department of Education – Report on Education
Learning and Accountability System – Pursuant to a
General Appropriation Act footnote, the Arizona
Department of Education (ADE) must contract with an
independent third-party vendor to provide additional
oversight on the development of ADE’s Education
Learning and Accountability System (ELAS). The vendor
is required to submit quarterly reports that evaluate and
assess the project’s feasibility, estimated expenditures,
technology approach and scope throughout the life of
the project. The vendor’s most recent quarterly review
was issued on January 29, 2016.

Table 6 provides a historical view of workload by
caseworker responsibility since 2008; it also displays
how much workload exceeds the caseload
standard in the “percent above workload
standard” line. (Ben Beutler)
Department of Economic Security – Report on Domestic
Violence Appropriation Adjustment – Pursuant to a FY
2016 General Appropriation Act footnote the
Department of Economic Security notified the Joint
Legislative Budget Committee that the department
plans to expend up to $280,000 above the $2,220,000
appropriated from the Domestic Violence Shelter Fund
in FY 2016. The additional expenditures will be used to
increase emergency shelter services. In FY 2015,
Domestic Violence Shelter Fund revenues were
$2,549,000 and FY 2016 revenues are projected to be
$2,523,500. (Tom Ritland)

As described in the prior review, delays in vendor
certification and the development process have led
ADE to pursue a “dual system,” in which the new
Arizona Education Data Standards (AzEDS) platform
runs parallel to the existing SAIS framework, which will
continue to make school payments in FY 2016.
The January review states that ADE is in the final stages
of implementing and testing the dual system option for
district data submission. It observes that “initial
comparisons between the SAIS and AzEDS data
submission streams shows a higher number for
headcount but lower numbers for ADM coming through
the AzEDS data stream.”

Department of Education – Budget Status Report –
Pursuant to a General Appropriation Act footnote and
A.R.S. § 35-131D, the Arizona Department of Education
(ADE) recently provided an update regarding its
budget status for FY 2016. In that report, ADE estimates
that it will experience a $(12.2) million net funding
surplus for formula programs for FY 2016. This consists of
an estimated $(0.9) million shortfall for Basic State Aid
and estimated $(11.3) million shortfall for Additional
State Aid (the Homeowner’s Rebate and 1% Cap

The review notes that ADE “has already identified some
root-cause errors for these discrepancies and is pursuing
the remedies.” However, it also concludes that “some
differences will remain due to cleaner, more timely and
accurate data through the AzEDS approach,” and it
expects that the AzEDS ADM calculations will be

Table 6
Caseworker Workload
Dec.
2008
15
28
24

Dec.
2009
15
27
23

Dec.
2010
15
30
25

Dec.
2011
15
32
27

Dec.
2012
15
33
36

Dec.
2013
16
47
25

Dec.
2014
16
42
29

Dec.
2015
25
43
30

Percent Above Workload Standard
Total Case-Carrying Caseworkers

9%
818

9%
761

15%
764

22%
781

48%
750

28%
983

37%
1,019

54%
953

Caseworkers Required by Standard

890

829

879

955

1,107

1,263

1,397

1,466

Investigations
In-Home Cases
Out-of-Home Children

10

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2016

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
“generally lower” where there are discrepancies. The
review attributes the differences to the elimination of
duplicate students, corrections to the business rules,
and more timely reporting of enrollment information
under AzEDS.
Due to the impact that changes in ADM counts would
have on districts, the review suggests that “it may
become necessary to adjust funding algorithms to
avoid disruptive funding allocations to Arizona districts
and schools.”
In addition, the review cautions that some districts may
be “unable or unwilling” to move from the current SAIS
data submission approach to AzEDs. Consequently, it
suggests that the dual data submission approach
“may need to become a longer-term strategy, rather
than a temporary” one.
The review also observes that the legislative decision to
adopt current year funding requires the reallocation of
resources and will contribute to delays in the
development of the ADM Calculation Engine (ACE).
The October 2015 review had previously identified
inadequate levels of help desk support available for
the rollout of the Opt-IN SSIS initiative. The current
report notes that the situation “has improved,” but that
the need remains to further re-engineer the help desk
process.
The current review concludes with the commendation,
“Arizona has climbed into the top tier of state
education departments with regard to data collection
and potential for data-informed instruction supported
by state systems.” As in the past, however, the review
cautions that “funding to adequately sustain the
components of AELAS beyond this fiscal year seems to
be in question” and warns that inadequate support for
AELAS will adversely affect the system. (Matt
Beienburg)
Supreme Court – Report on Criminal Case Proceedings,
Enforcement of Court Orders, and State Aid to Courts
Fund Expenditures – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 12-102.01D,
the Supreme Court is required to report annually to the
JLBC on the progress of criminal case processing
projects and the enforcement of court orders including
the collection of court ordered fees, fines, penalties,
sanctions and forfeitures. Additionally, pursuant to
A.R.S. § 12-102.02D, the Supreme Court is required to
report annually to the JLBC on the expenditure of
monies from the State Aid to the Courts Fund for the
prior fiscal year and the progress made in improving
criminal case processing.

Since 2003, the Supreme Court has contracted with an
outside vendor to increase compliance with court orders,
resulting in total collections of $45.1 million from
backlogged cases in FY 2015, or 2.0% above FY 2014.
Additionally, the Supreme Court utilizes a debt setoff
program to match outstanding criminal fines or fees to
outstanding tax and governmental liabilities. Tax and
lottery interceptions in the debt setoff program were
$15.0 million in FY 2015, or (5.1)% below FY 2014.
Expenditures from the State Aid to the Courts Fund were
$2.4 million in FY 2015. These monies were disbursed to
Superior and Justice Courts for the processing of criminal
cases.
The Supreme Court reported that criminal case
processing was enhanced by using State Aid to the
Courts Fund monies for computers, a case management
system, early resolution and deferred incarceration
programs, staff training, pre-sentence investigators,
judges, pre-trial services, indigent defense, probation and
domestic violence staff, clerks, court commissioners,
administrative positions, support staff, interpreters, security
staff, computer programmers, supplemental funding to
driving under the influence (DUI) and drug courts, and
the enhancement of electronic data sharing. (Eric
Billings)
Public Safety Personnel Retirement System (PSPRS) –
Report on Shared Cost Structure, Funding Status and Rate
of Return - Pursuant to A.R.S. § 38-848.02, PSPRS is required
to report annually on the shared cost structure of the
employees and employers, the funding status and the
rate of return for the system. Besides administering its own
system, PSPRS is also responsible for the Correctional
Officers Retirement Plan (CORP) as well as the Elected
Officials’ Retirement Plan (EORP). Table 7 shows the
contribution rates, funded status and rate of return for FY
2017, based on valuation data from June 30, 2015.
In PSPRS and CORP, there is significant variation in the
actuarial status of individual employer groups, therefore
the employer contribution rates and funded statuses
have been shown in the aggregate. Individual employer
contribution rates and funded ratios are available on the
PSPRS website.
A 7-year smoothing period is used to calculate the
investment rate of return. This smoothing technique is a
tool used to reduce short-term volatility of assets by
deferring a portion of gains and losses over time. This
smoothing process is used under the condition that the
maximum deferred gain or loss remains within 20% of
market value. Table 7 shows 1-year market-based
returns, in addition to the 7-year smoothing technique.
(Josh Hope)

11

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2016

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
Table 7

PSPRS Annual Report
PSPRS

CORP

EORP

FY 17 Contribution Rates 1/
Employer 2/
Employee

42.61%
11.65% 4/

18.71%
8.41% 5/

23.50% 3/
13.00%

Funded Status 1/ 2/ 6/

49.0%

57.3%

38.8%

Rate of Return
1-year market value basis
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
7-year smoothing basis
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
____________
1/ Based on June 30, 2015 valuation.
2/ Employer contribution rates and funded statuses for
PSPRS and CORP are shown in the aggregate, as there is
significant variation in the actuarial status between
individual employer groups.
3/ Pursuant to A.R.S. § 38-810, a fixed employer contribution
rate of 23.5% began January 1, 2014.
4/ As stipulated in A.R.S. § 38-843E.
5/ Pursuant to A.R.S. § 38-891H and I, the employee rate is
7.96% for full-time dispatchers and 8.41% for all others.
6/ Funded status is adjusted to exclude retiree health.

Department of Revenue – Report on Annual
Enforcement Goals – Pursuant to 2 General
Appropriation Act footnotes, the Department of
Revenue (DOR) is required to report on their FY 2016
revenue enforcement goals, and to provide an annual
progress report to the Committee on the effectiveness
of the department’s overall enforcement and
collections program for FY 2015. In FY 2015, DOR’s total
enforcement goal was $466.7 million but they actually
collected $540.5 million. DOR’s FY 2016 goal for total
enforcement collections totals $465.3 million.
DOR’s General Fund FY 2016 revenue enforcement
goal is $297.6 million, which is $43.4 million, or 12.7%
below FY 2015 actual collections. Compared to actual
FY 2015 General Fund enforcement revenue, DOR’s FY
2016 goals consist of:




A decrease in audit revenue of $(32.2) million, or
(34.3)%.
A decrease in collections revenue of $(8.3) million,
or (5.0)%
A decrease in accounts receivables revenue of
$(2.8) million, or (3.5)%.

Audit enforcement revenue includes revenue due to
DOR’s auditing of taxpayer returns, and finding and
licensing unlicensed businesses. Accounts receivable
revenue includes taxpayer accounts paid before they
would have been moved to collections, which allows
DOR’s collectors to work on other accounts. After
certain periods of time, unpaid taxpayer accounts are
moved from accounts receivable to DOR’s Collections
section. (Jeremy Gunderson)

Arizona Board of Regents/Arizona Community Colleges
– Report on Articulation – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-1824,
the Arizona Board of Regents (ABOR) and the
community colleges are required to submit an annual
report by December 15 of their progress on both
articulation and meeting statewide postsecondary
education needs.
This year’s progress in implementing the transfer model
and support systems include:
During the 2014-2015 academic year, 10,696
community college students transferred to the
public university system. This is an increase of 16.2%
from the 2009-2010 academic year.

53.5% of new transfer students had 60 or more
credit hours transferred to a university in 2014-2015
versus 46.1% in 2009-2010.

54.1% of transfer students completed an associate’s
degree prior to transfer in 2013-2014 versus 45.3% in
2009-2010.

Ethnic minorities accounted for 41.6% of new
community college transfers in 2014-2015.
(Tom Ritland)


12

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2016

January Spending
January 2016 General Fund spending of $569.4 million was
$(113.6) million less than January 2015. Year to date,
spending is $6.37 billion, or $(133.7) million below last year.
(See Tables 8 & 9).


Year to date, the Department of Education has spent
$50.0 million more than the prior year.



Due to technical reporting issues with the newlycreated Department of Child Safety (DCS) in FY 2015,
the figures reported below for DCS and the Department
of Economic Security do not accurately reflect changes
in spending levels from the prior year.



Even after accounting for issues relating to DCS, the
significant decline in DES spending year-to-date is
due to technical timing issues relating to the
disbursement of Medicaid matching funds.



During FY 2016, Universities spending has declined by
$(66.3) million. This is related to changes enacted in
the FY 2016 budget, which contained a $(99.0)
million spending reduction for the Universities system.

Table 8
General Fund Spending ($ in Millions)
Change From

YTD Change

Jan 16

Jan 15

Year-to-Date

from FY 15

AHCCCS

121.1

7.1

775.2

(39.3)

Corrections

80.0

1.3

612.8

43.6

Child Safety

23.0

21.8

237.7

157.8
(218.8)

Agency

Economic Security

4.7

(102.7)

408.5

Education

224.2

(20.7)

2,696.0

50.0

Health Serv ices

12.8

(2.9)

529.0

(3.7)

Public Safety

15.2

0.4

55.0

1.9

School Facilities Board

0.1

(0.0)

162.0

5.9

Univ ersities

43.3

(8.6)

474.8

(66.3)

Leaseback Debt Serv ice

0.0

0.0

84.1

(0.0)

Other

45.0

(9.3)

333.8

(64.8)

Total

569.4

(113.6)

6,368.9

(133.7)

13

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2016

Table 9

General Fund Spending
($ in Thousands)
Agency

Jan 16

Change from
Jan 15

Year-to-Date

YTD Change
from FY 15

Dept. of Admin./Automation Projects Fund
ADOA – Sale/Leaseback Debt Service
Office of Administrative Hearings
Commission of African-American Affairs
Department of Agriculture
AHCCCS
Attorney General
State Board of Charter Schools

1,325.3
88.8
17.0
671.0
121,080.4
1,581.2
84.6

506.2
(0.5)
15.6
222.2
7,056.2
(1,160.9)
26.1

12,863.9
84,114.6
514.7
70.6
4,970.8
775,173.8
11,956.9
641.4

(27,419.3)
(7.1)
(22.0)
69.1
243.6
(39,312.2)
(852.8)
125.9

Department of Child Safety
AZ Commerce Authority
Community Colleges
Corporation Commission
Department of Corrections
County Funding
AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind
Department of Economic Security
State Board of Education
Department of Education
DEMA
DEQ – WQARF
Office of Equal Opportunity
State Board of Equalization
Board of Executive Clemency
Department of Financial Institutions
Department of Fire, Bldg and Life Safety
State Forester
Department of Gaming
Arizona Geological Survey
Governor/OSPB
Department of Health Services
Arizona Historical Society
Prescott Historical Society of AZ
Independent Redistricting Comm.
Commission of Indian Affairs
Department of Insurance
Judiciary
Supreme/Superior Court
Court of Appeals
Department of Juvenile Corrections

23,034.7
2,208.3
12,503.6
23.1
80,017.7
1,583.4
4,657.4
67.8
224,163.2
774.7
18.5
27.6
59.2
209.8
246.5
570.3
116.4
595.7
12,810.7
266.8
61.3
297.2
0.8
330.8

21,823.4
(4,354.8)
(29.1)
1,285.9
(302.6)
(102,702.1)
67.8
(20,718.5)
(1,664.7)
5.1
2.7
(2.8)
(17.5)
65.4
289.4
(2.0)
(157.9)
(2,948.2)
35.6
(5.1)
200.8
(9.7)
(141.7)

237,724.6
15,608.1
38,462.8
286.6
612,832.5
6,000.5
16,266.6
408,515.8
656.6
2,696,007.7
4,993.5
7,000.0
104.3
358.3
546.1
1,783.5
1,253.4
3,248.2
1,794.4
605.6
5,633.4
529,006.7
2,070.1
499.4
916.6
20.8
2,982.4

157,826.5
(14,763.0)
(66.6)
43,614.9
(1,650.0)
2,994.4
(218,802.7)
656.6
50,021.2
(445.8)
16.7
11.5
(10.8)
4.1
(3.6)
1,206.1
1,794.4
11.5
(915.4)
(3,710.1)
37.0
87.7
269.6
(18.9)
(208.9)

9,827.6
1,055.3
1,468.9

(597.5)
(42.8)
(1,765.6)

54,505.4
8,172.8
15,426.5

(2,723.7)
31.3
(7,876.1)

14

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – FEBRUARY 2016

Table 9 (Continued)

Agency
State Land Department
Legislature
Auditor General
House of Representatives
Joint Legislative Budget Comm.
Legislative Council
Senate
Mine Inspector
Nav. Streams & Adjudication
Occupational Safety and Health Review
Arizona State Parks Board
Phoenix Convention Center
Pioneers’ Home
Comm. for Postsecondary Ed.
Department of Public Safety
Public Safety Personnel Retirement System
Arizona Department of Racing
Radiation Regulatory Agency
Real Estate Department
Department of Revenue
Rio Nuevo Distribution
School Facilities Board
Secretary of State
Tax Appeals Board
Office of Tourism
Department of Transportation
Universities
Board of Regents
Arizona State University
Northern Arizona University
University of Arizona
Department of Veteran Services
Department of Water Resources
Water Infrastructure Finance Authority
Department of Weights & Measures
Other - JP Salaries Distribution
Other
Total

Jan 16

Change from
Jan 15

Year-to-Date

YTD Change
from FY 15

722.5

(146.2)

6,438.9

(836.4)

1,520.2
1,021.7
204.8
399.0
643.6
76.0
8.0
698.4
15,177.3
368.6
153.7
(624.4)
85.4
645.4
17.5
1,422.1
-

(34.0)
(180.4)
30.7
(190.9)
(17.5)
(1.8)
(1.8)
(185.8)
436.9
(80.0)
143.3
(0.9)
114.2
(16.7)
(81.9)
(0.5)
1.3
-

11,584.4
7,882.6
1,351.5
3,753.9
4,363.8
657.3
72.0
2.5
275.3
20,449.0
1,396.8
55,041.9
6,000.0
1,183.9
1,493.7
23,425.7
161,962.9
6,041.7
163.2
6,399.4
-

(133.8)
581.4
51.8
(1,866.6)
(322.0)
(28.6)
(27.1)
1.6
275.3
(1,018.0)
1,948.0
(1,869.6)
208.2
(28.2)
(5,805.8)
5,885.5
(2,178.6)
(1.5)
(1,994.0)
-

6,786.1
16,627.6
5,826.9
14,080.3
325.6
924.6
253.9
220.3
8.5
569,439.2

442.3
(4,931.6)
(1,488.6)
(2,586.1)
(19.5)
(70.4)
140.8
220.3
(26.0)
(113,552.2)

19,056.3
206,968.4
71,283.1
177,491.6
2,966.0
6,066.7
816.6
728.5
41.8
6,368,948.8

(3,226.1)
(34,521.4)
(10,420.4)
(18,102.9)
300.5
(163.4)
(1,000.0)
30.9
307.2
3.3
(133,737.7)

JLBC
Jul 14

3

JLBC
Jul 14
Jul 15

Jan 15

35,000

Jul 13

8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jan 14

2,200
Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jan 10

Jul 09

Jan 09

Jul 08

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jan 07

Jul 06

Jan 06

Jul 05

Jan 05

Jul 04

Jan 04

Jul 03

Jan 03

Jul 02

Jan 02

Jul 01

Jan 01

Thousands of Jobs
2,300

Jan 13

Jan 05
Jul 05
Jan 06
Jul 06
Jan 07
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 09
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 14
Jan 15
Jul 15

Jan 02
Jul 02
Jan 03
Jul 03
Jan 04
Jul 04

Jan 01
Jul 01

Year Over Year Growth (%)

2,400

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jan 10

Jul 09

Jan 09

Jul 08

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jan 07

3.5% Y/Y Growth
(December 2015)

Jul 06

$19

Jan 06

$20

Jul 05

$23.28 / Hour
(December 2015)

Jan 05

$23

Jul 04

$25

Jan 04

Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector

Jul 03

$22

Total Monthly Claims for UI Benefits

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

JLBC

Jan 03

Jan 11
July 11

1

Jul 02

Jan 10
July 10

2……Total Non-Farm Employment
3……Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector
4……Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
5……State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
6……State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting
Category
7……Residential Building Permits
8……Economic Activity Index

Jan 02

Jan 09
July 09

February 2016
Appendix A

Jul 01

Jan 01

Jul-15

12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%

Jan-15

Jan 08
July 08

$21

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 11

July 10

Jan 07
July 07

$ / Hour

Page:

Jan 10

July 09

Jan 09

July 08

Jan 08

July 07

Jan 07

Year Over Year Growth (%)

Tracking Arizona’s Recovery

Total Non-Farm Employment

2,800

2,700

2,600

2,500

$22.73 / Hour
(Octoberjobs
2014)
2,709,500
(December 2015)

2,100

2.5% Y/Y Growth
(December 2015)

2

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

$24

45,000

40,000

30,000

16,020 Claims
(December 2015)

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

Not seasonally adjusted

4

State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category

State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting Category
$100

$225
$75

$ in Millions

$175

$150

$25

$238.3 million
(January 2016)

5

Jul 15

Jan 16

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jan 12

Jan 11

July 11

Jan 10

July 10

Jan 09

July 09

Jan 08

July 08

Jan 07

Jul 15

Jan 16

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jan 11

July 11

Jan 10

July 10

Jan 09

Jan 08

Economic Activity Index
240

100,000

223.4 Index Value
(December 2015)

230

90,000

220

80,000

Coincident Index Value

70,000
60,000

Single Family Unit- 22,594 Permits
Multi-Family Unit- 9,124 Permits
(Dec. 2015)

50,000
40,000
30,000

210
200
190
180
170
160

20,000

150

10,000

7

JLBC

Source: Coincident Index – Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Combines four state-level indicators
(employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary
disbursements) to summarize current economic conditions.

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jul 11

Jan 12

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jul 09

Jan 10

Jan 09

Jul 08

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jul 06

Jan 07

Jul 05

Jan 06

Jul 04

Jan 05

Jul 03

Jan 04

Jan 03

Jul 02

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jul 09

Jan 10

Jul 08

Jan 09

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jul 06

Jan 07

Jul 05

Jul 04

Jan 05

Jul 03

Jan 04

Jan 03

Jul 02

Jan 02

Jul 01

Jan 01

Jan 06

12-Month Moving Sum

Jan 02

Jan 01

140

0

Jul 01

Building Permits

6

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

Residential Building Permits

JLBC

July 09

JLBC

July 07

July 06

(13.8)% Y/Y Growth
(January 2016)
July 08

Jul 15

* January 2014 estimate adjusted downward by $30 million to reflect onetime category shift.

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

Jan 16

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jan 11

July 11

Jan 10

July 10

Jan 09

July 09

Jan 08

July 08

* Jan 14

JLBC

July 07

Jan 07

4.7 % Y/Y Growth
(January 2016)

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

July 07

Year Over Year Growth (%)

Jul 15

$0

Jan 16

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

* Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jan 12

Jan 11

July 11

Jan 10

July 10

Jan 09

July 09

Jan 08

July 08

Jan 07

July 06

20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
July 06

Year Over Year Growth (%)

July 07

$100

Jan 07

$125

$37.0 million
(January 2016)

$50

July 06

$ in Millions

$200

8