JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights

January 2016

Summary
1716 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Phone:
(602) 926-5491
Fax:
(602) 926-5416

www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

“For FY 2017,
with General
Fund revenues
of $10.0 billion
and spending
of $9.37 billion,
the budget has
a projected FY
2017 cash
balance of

December 2015 General Fund collections of
$844.0 million were (4.8)% below the prior year,
and were $2.1 million above the enacted
budget forecast. The decline in revenues during
the month was driven by a (45.8)% drop in
Corporate Income Tax collections.

million, which is a decrease of $(22.6) million
from the prior year.

The large decline in the tax category is an
indication that the state may finally be
experiencing the revenue loss from the
corporate tax reductions that began to be
phased in on January 1, 2014 (Tax Year 2014).

The state’s fiscal health can also be measured
by the operating fund balance. The state pays
its bills out of the operating fund balance,
which consists of the General Fund and certain
dedicated funds. The operating balance as of
mid-January 2015 is $2.0 billion. In addition, the
state’s Budget Stabilization Fund has a balance
of $459.4 million.

As noted in prior versions of the Monthly Fiscal
Highlights, while TY 2014 Corporate returns
would typically be filed in April 2015 (FY 2015), it
was assumed that most large Corporate filers
would receive 6-month extensions and file
returns during October 2015. These returns were
then processed by DOR and it appears the
state is now realizing a portion of the revenue
loss from the tax reductions. Evidence of this
processing can be seen in the large increase in
Corporate Income Tax refunds during
December, as refunds increased from $19.4
million in December 2014 to $50.0 million in
December 2015.
The states core revenue categories – Sales Tax
and withholding – had minimal growth during
the month. Sales tax collections increased by
1.1% during December, and withholding
actually declined by (1.1)% for the month.
Year-to-date, base General Fund revenues are
2.9% above the prior year, and are $210.4
million above forecast. Excluding the one-time
tax amnesty, year-to-date revenues are $178.4
million above forecast.
In comparison to revenue collections of $844.0
million, December 2015 spending was $599.0

Fiscal year-to-date, General Fund revenues of
$4.50 billion have been offset by $5.76 billion of
expenditures.

JLBC Baseline Summary
On January 15, the JLBC released its FY 2017
Baseline budget. The Baseline reflects a
consensus economic forecast and statutory
funding formula requirements. In summary:








Given forecasted FY 2016 General Fund
revenues of $9.74 billion and spending of
$9.24 billion, the budget has a projected
FY 2016 cash balance of $499 million.
For FY 2017, with General Fund revenues
of $10.0 billion and spending of $9.37
billion, the budget has a projected FY
2017 cash balance of $625 million.
While the state is projected to have a
significant cash balance for FY 2017, the
structural balance is only estimated to be
$26 million.
The ending balance projections exclude
the state’s Budget Stabilization Fund
reserve of $460 million.

In addition, the JLBC Staff has also published a
comparison of the Baseline with the Executive
Budget.

$625 million.”

Table of Contents

This report has been
prepared for the Arizona
Legislature by the Joint
Legislative Budget
Committee Staff on
January 20, 2016.

Summary
 JLBC Baseline Summary ..................................... 1
December Revenues ............................................. 2
Monthly Indicators.................................................. 4
Summary of Recent Agency Reports
 Attorney General – Legal Settlements ............ 7
 DCS – Foster Care Medicaid Report ............... 7
 DCS – Semi-Annual Progress Report ................ 8
 DCS – Performance Benchmarks ..................... 8
 Comm. Colleges – Revised Annual Report .... 9
 ACJC – Report on State Aid Funds ................ 10

 ADE – Current Year Funding Report .............. 10
 ADE – K-12 Aggregate Expenditure Limit...... 10
 ADE – Override Report ..................................... 10
 JLBC Staff – Public Programs Eligibility ........... 10
 Ombudsman – Annual Report ....................... 11
 SFB – Class B Bonding Report .......................... 11
 SOS – Election Systems Improvement Fund.. 11
 ABOR – Universities Financial Aid ................... 11

December Spending............................................ 12
Tracking Arizona’s Recovery ............ Appendix A

2

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2016

December Revenues
Table 1

General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions)

December
Year-to-Date

FY 2016
Collections
$ 844.0
$ 4,499.1

Difference From
Budget Forecast
$
2.1
$ 210.4

Sales Tax collections of $348.3 million were 1.1% above
December of last year but (1.3)% below forecast for the
month. Year to date, sales tax collections are up by 3.1%
compared to last year and $3.2 million above forecast.
Table 2 below includes the major categories of the state’s
sales tax, which together account for approximately 90%
of total collections.
None of the major TPT categories performed well in
December. The retail sales tax increased by 4.7% in
December, the weakest year-over-year growth since
January 2015. Prime contracting experienced another
month of double-digit decline in December, with
collections decreasing by (19.7)%, year over year.
As has been discussed in prior months, the retail growth
and contracting decline appears to be related to “TPT
Simplification” legislation enacted in 2013. Beginning in
2015, the tax base for building materials changed from
contracting to retail.
Table 2

Sales Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

Retail
Contracting
Use
Restaurant & Bar
Utilities

December
4.7%
(19.7)%
(0.3)%
2.3%
3.7%

YTD
9.2%
(18.1)%
(1.1)%
4.9%
1.9%

Individual Income Tax net revenues were $420.8 million in
December, which were $(0.5) million less than the prior
year and $12.1 million above forecast for the month.
Year-to-date, revenue has grown 5.4% over the prior year
to a level that is $147.3 million above forecast.
As indicated in Table 3, withholding decreased by
(1.1)% for the month and was $(5.4) million below the
forecast. The weak month was likely the result of having
1 less processing day compared to December of 2014.
Year-to-date withholding collections are 2.8% above FY
2015 and $53.2 million above the forecast.
December estimated and final payments of $117.2
million were 41.0% above last year and $44.1 million
above the forecast. Year-to-date, payments are $105.0
million above the budget forecast. Strong payment
and weak withholding collections year-to-date
continues the pattern of collections seen in FY 2015.
December Individual Income Tax refunds totaled $(30.2)
million – this compares to $0.8 million in December 2014

Difference
From FY 2015
$
(42.5)
$
138.8

and a forecasted amount of $(3.5) million. Of the
monthly total, $(23.5) million represents an adjustment
for underreporting of refunds during the prior 4 months.
Year-to-date, refunds have led to a $(10.9) million loss
compared to the enacted forecast.
Table 3

Individual Income Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

Withholding
Estimated/Final Payments
Refunds

December
(1.1)%
41.0%
N/A%

YTD
2.8%
22.7%
11.1%

Corporate Income Tax net collections were $67.8 million
in December, which was (45.8)% less than the prior year.
Collections for the month were $(30.1) million below the
forecast. The weak month is thought to result from
delayed use of tax reductions that first became
available in tax year 2014. Year to date, collections are
$35.3 million above forecast.
Insurance Premium Tax collections of $19.1 million in
December were $7.5 million above the prior year and
$6.0 million above the forecast. Year-to-date,
collections are $10.0 million above forecast.
Tax Amnesty – Pursuant to Laws 2015, Chapter 10, the
Department of Revenue operated a Tax Amnesty
program between September 1 and October 31.
During that period, taxpayers who owed money to DOR
could avoid all penalties and interest by voluntarily
reporting and paying the back taxes. In total, $47.0
million was collected from the program, which was
$32.0 million more than budgeted. Table 4 below shows
the portion of collections in each category from
amnesty. In Table 5, amnesty collections are reported
with the regular collections for each category.
Table 4

Tax Amnesty Collections By Category
$ in M
Sales Tax
$ 15.1
Individual Income Tax
11.0
Corporate Income Tax
20.9
Total
$47.0
Due to the implementation of a new accounting
system, DOR has made technical adjustments to prior
month collection figures. For December, DOR has
deducted $(0.5) million from prior General Fund revenue
collections, and the adjustment has been included in
the reported year-to-date results.

3
Table 5

General Fund Revenue:
Change from Previous Year and Budget Forecast
December 2015
Current Month

FY 2016 YTD (Six Months)

Change From
Actual

December 2014

December 2015

Amount

Change from
Budget Forecast

Percent

Amount

Actual

Percent

December 2014

December 2015

Amount

Budget Forecast

Percent

Amount

Percent

Taxes
Sales and Use
Income - Individual

$348,345,894

$3,900,941

1.1 %

($4,668,434)

420,765,658

(494,200)

(0.1)

12,091,804

67,786,467

(57,214,078)

(45.8)

(30,075,332)

Property

7,720,506

(4,902,826)

(38.8)

Luxury - Tobacco

1,769,671

(185,269)

(9.5)

- Corporate

- Liquor
Insurance Premium
Other Taxes
Sub-Total Taxes

3,049,645

77,192

19,119,526

7,469,486

320,593

(61,332)

$868,877,959

($51,410,086)

(1.3) %
3.0

$2,116,900,367

$62,954,961

3.1 %

2,088,735,691

107,390,343

5.4

0.2 %
7.6

(15.8)

35,321,984

15.9

12.0

7,380,502

54.6

(30.7)

257,138,628

2,067,096

36.6

20,900,193

0

0.0

11,682,455

(220,361)

(1.9)

198,965

1.7

2.6

0

0.0

15,887,197

160,054

1.0

(241,916)

(1.5)

64.1

5,983,732

45.6

157,899,311

15,811,584

11.1

(16.1)
(5.6) %

(31,307)
($14,632,441)

(8.9)
(1.7) %

2,656,285
$4,671,800,126

(48,348,696)

$3,235,631
147,290,024

2,238,283

(172,370)
$139,813,799

(6.1)
3.1 %

10,003,779
(81,507)
$203,107,463

6.8
(3.0)
4.5 %

Other Revenue
Lottery
License, Fees and Permits
Interest
Sales and Services
Other Miscellaneous
Disproportionate Share
Transfers and Reimbursements
Sub-Total Other Revenue
TOTAL BASE REVENUE

0

(4,662,000) (100.0)

3,055,874

(225,762)

(6.9)

597

(3,799)

(86.4)

0
249,790
(3,799)

-8.9
(86.4)

12,931,475

(2,395,125)

(15.6)

15,223,874

(308,631)

(2.0)

(1,056)

(0.0)

10,098

(7,231)

(41.7)

(7,231)

(41.7)

4,086,049

2,689,879

192.7

2,753,272

206.6

8,668,341

202,484

2.4

11,943,416

9,175,547

331.5

10,170,861

573.8

20,929,175

7,188,053

52.3

0

0

6,550,751

1,632,079

$25,636,687

$8,605,944

$894,514,646

($42,804,142)

-33.2

0
3,550,751

-118.4

0

0

14,013,176

(9,859,178)
($5,179,629)

50.5 %

$16,720,876

187.5 %

$71,776,139

(4.6) %

$2,088,435

0.2 %

$4,743,576,265

$134,634,170

-(41.3)

2,294,285

(238,103)
9,262,972
0
(3,986,824)

21.6

(2.7)
79.4
-(22.1)

(6.7) %

$7,324,042

11.4 %

2.9 %

$210,431,504

4.6 %

Other Adjustments
Urban Revenue Sharing
One-Time Transfers
Sub-Total Other Adjustments
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE

(50,469,528)
0
(50,469,528)
$844,045,118

275,114

--

(3)

0

--

0

--

(3)

0.0 %

275,114
($42,529,028)

-- %

0.0

(302,817,167)
58,382,000
(244,435,167)

1,650,690
2,512,953

-4.5

4,163,643

-- %

(17)
0
(16)

0.0
0.0
0.0 %

(4.8) %

$2,088,432

0.2 %

$4,499,141,098

$138,797,813

3.2 %

$210,431,488

4.9 %

5.8 %

$4,530,459

4.2 %

$661,566,146

$37,537,944

6.0 %

$22,933,443

3.6 %

Non-General Funds
Highway User Revenue Fund

$111,964,767

$6,114,385

4

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2016

Monthly Indicators
NATIONAL

ARIZONA

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau
of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the
third quarter of 2015. This estimate represents a
slowdown from the 3.9% growth in the second quarter of
2015. The deceleration was primarily due to a reduction
in inventory investment and slower growth in
consumption, state and local government spending,
residential and non-residential investment and exports.
Declining performance in these categories was partly
offset by deceleration in imports.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s coincident
index gauges current economic activity in each state.
The index combines 4 indicators: employment, average
hours worked in manufacturing, unemployment rate,
and inflation-adjusted wages.

The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence
Index increased 3.9 points in December, reversing part
of a (10.0) point drop over the 2 prior months. The
monthly increase involved a widespread reversal from
the negative employment and economic outlook in
prior months. Economists think that the index’s
improvement was driven by recent positive job reports
and continued decreases in gas prices. Year-over-year
growth increased 3.7% since December 2014.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Economic Index
increased by 0.4% in November, following a 0.6%
increase in the prior month. The index stands 3.4%
above its November 2014 reading. Of the index’s 10
components, only 5 made positive contributions in
November. Overall growth in the index was driven
primarily by positive building permits data and
movement in interest rates. These contributions were
partly offset by negative data on initial unemployment
insurance claims and manufacturing orders.
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau
of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Personal Consumption
Expenditure Price Index (PCEPI) was flat in November,
relative to October. The measure stands at just 0.4%
above the November 2014 level. The index’s annual
growth has been pulled well below the Federal Reserve
Bank’s (Fed) 2% annual inflation target, largely due to a
(15.8)% year-over-year decrease in energy prices.
Annual growth in the core index (all items except food
and energy), however, has grown by a steadier 1.3%
through November. The Fed’s recent decision to begin
increasing short-term interest rates indicates that the
bank is focusing more on the measure of core inflation
than the overall measure.

Arizona’s coincident index increased by 3.7% compared
to November 2014. Over the same time period, the U.S.
coincident index increased by 3.1%. Currently, Arizona’s
rate of annual coincident index growth is 17th in the
nation. Last year at this time, Arizona’s rate was 33rd
highest among states. See Appendix A – Tracking
Arizona’s Recovery for additional historical information.
Housing
Single-family housing construction is accelerating, while
multi-family construction has peaked. Arizona’s 12month total of single-family building permits is 22,184,
or 27.1% more than a year ago. The comparable
single-family permit growth rate for the entire U.S. is
10.0%. See Appendix A – Tracking Arizona’s Recovery
for historical information.
The 12-month total of multi-family building permits was
increasing strongly compared to last year, but has
recently leveled off. Arizona’s total of 9,794 multifamily building permits is (4.3)% below 2014. Arizona’s
rate of increase is now significantly less than the
comparable multi-family permit growth for the U.S. as a
whole, which is 19.0% above 2014.
In November, the Average Weekly Hours worked by
individuals in Arizona’s private sector was 34.8 hours.
This workload is equal to the November 2014 level.
The Average Hourly Earnings received by these private
sector workers was $23.49, which is 0.8% above the
average in the prior month. November earnings were
3.0% above the average in November 2014. This
represents the largest year-over-year growth rate in
hourly earnings in the past 2 years.
The U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of
Economic Analysis quarterly releases estimates of
annual Personal Income received in each state. This
measure includes wages and salaries, proprietors’
income, dividends, interest, rent, and various
supplements to income while excluding capital gains,
contributions for government social insurance, and
pension benefit payments. In the third quarter of 2015,
Arizona personal income increased year-over-year by
5.3%, to $269.5 billion.

5

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2016

Monthly Indicators (Continued)
According to the U.S. Census, Arizona’s population was
estimated to be 6.83 million as of July 1, 2015. This was a
net increase of 1.5%, or 99,300 persons over July 1, 2014.
An estimated 64%, or equivalently, 63,300 of the
population increase was attributable to net migration.
By way of comparison, the Employment and Population
Statistics Unit of the Arizona Department of
Administration estimates that Arizona’s population was
6.76 million on July 1, 2015.
Tourism
Revenue per available room reached $64.39 in
November, which was 7.5% above the amount in
November 2014. Year-to-date, revenue per available
room is 12.0% above the 2014 year-to-date amount
through November. Ridership during November through
Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport increased 4.0% above the
level in November 2014.
State Agency Data
At the beginning of January 2016, the total AHCCCS
caseload was 1.80 million members. Since the federal
health care expansion in January 2014, the overall
AHCCCS population has grown by 544,200 members.
Total monthly enrollment decreased (0.2)% during
December, the first monthly decrease since February
2015. The overall decrease in December was partly due
to enrollment of Traditional population of lower income
children and their parents. Enrollment in this population
fell (2,700) in December to a level of 1,053,300
members. The February level represents a decrease of
(0.3)% since last month. This decrease was partly offset
by an enrollment increase of 2,100, or 1.1%, in the
Proposition 204 Parent population.
In January 2014, the state started accepting new
enrollment to the Proposition 204 childless adults
program. In December 2015, the childless adult
population decreased by (2,100), or (0.7)%. At 306.500,
this population is 9.8% higher than a year ago.
The state also opted to expand adult Medicaid
coverage to 133% of FPL. Their enrollment increased by
800 in December and now totals 79,600 individuals.
Enrollment is 118.8% higher than a year ago. The federal
government is currently paying 100% of this cost.
According to data the Department of Child Safety
published for October 2015, reports of child
maltreatment totaled 51,130 over the last 12 months, an
increase of 6.5% over the prior year. Reports of child
maltreatment were lower in September and October
2015 compared to each of the same months in the prior

year. There were 18,927 children in out-of-home care
as of October 2015, or 10.1% more than in October
2014. Compared to the prior month, the number of
out-of-home children increased by 1.4%.
The Department of Economic Security (DES) reported
that there were 23,243 TANF recipients in the state in
January, representing a monthly caseload decrease
of (2.2)% from December. The year-over-year number
of TANF recipients has declined by (20.2)%. The
statutory lifetime limit on cash assistance is 24 months.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
(SNAP), formerly known as Food Stamps, provides
assistance to low-income households to purchase
food. In January, there were a total of 988,067 food
stamp recipients in the state, a (0.8)% decrease over
the prior month. Compared to January caseloads last
year, the level of food stamp participation has
declined by (4.9)%.
As of December 31, 2015, ADC reported an inmate
population of 42,722. The population dropped by 72,
and this was a (0.2)% decrease since November. This
was a 1.3% increase since December 2014. ADC
reported 42,183 inmates at the end of December
2014.

6

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2016
Table 6

MONTHLY INDICATORS
Indicator
Arizona
Employment
- Regular Unemployment Rate
- Total Unemployment Rate (discouraged/underemployed)
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Unemployment Insurance Recipients
- Non-Farm Employment - Total
Manufacturing
Construction
- Average Weekly Hours, Private Sector
- Average Hourly Earnings, Private Sector
Sales
- Retail Taxable Sales
Motor Vehicles/Misc. Auto
Furniture/Home Furnishings
Building Material/Lawn & Garden
Building
- Residential Building Permits (12-month avg)
Single-family
Multi-family
- Maricopa County/Other, Home Sales (ARMLS)
Single-Family (Pending Sales)
- Maricopa County/Other, Median Home Price (ARMLS)
Single-Family (Pending Sales)
- Phoenix S&P/C Home Price Index (2000 = 100)
- Maricopa Pending Foreclosures
- Greater Phoenix Total Housing Inventory, (ARMLS)
Tourism
- Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers
- National Park Visitors
- State Park Visitors
- Revenue Per Available Hotel Room
General Measures
- Arizona Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Arizona Coincident Index (July 1992 = 100)
- Arizona Leading Index -- 6 month projected growth
- Arizona Personal Income
- Arizona Population
- State Debt Rating
Standards & Poor’s/Moody’s
Outlook
Agency Measures
- AHCCCS Recipients
Acute Care Traditional
Prop 204 Childless Adults
Other Prop 204
Adult Expansion
Kids Care I
Long-Term Care – Elderly & DD
Emergency Services
- Department of Child Safety (DCS)
Annual Reports of Child Maltreatment (12-month total)
DCS Out-of-Home Children
Filled Caseworkers (1406 Budgeted)
- ADC Inmate Growth
- Department of Economic Security
- TANF Recipients
- SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients
- Judiciary Probation Caseload
Non-Maricopa
Maricopa County
United States
- Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2009 dollars, SAAR)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Leading Indicators Index (2010 = 100)
- Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100)
- Personal Consumption Price Index (2009 = 100)

Time Period

Current Value

Change From
Prior Period

Change From
Prior Year

November
3rd Q 2015
November
August
November
November
November
November
November

6.0%
13.6%
15,685
29,157
2.70 million
157,000
133,300
34.80
$23.49

(0.0)%
(0.2)%
(8.4)%
(23.0)%
1.1%
0.6%
1.2%
1.2%
0.8%

(0.6)%
(1.5)%
(2.2)%
(32.2)%
2.5%
0.4%
5.5%
0.0%
3.0%

November
November
November

$976.0 million
$303.1 million
$387.3 million

5.1%
(11.5)%
8.6%

15.0%
(2.0)%
16.1%

November
November

22,184
9,794

2.3%
0.8%

27.1%
(4.3)%

November

5,267

14.8%

24.0%

November

$230,000

2.2%

11.7%

October
November
November

155.95
4,383
24,918

0.5%
(2.5)%
1.1%

5.7%
(25.0)%
(9.1)%

November
September
November
November

3.54 million
1,297,996
176,658
$64.39

(4.5)%
(23.0)%
(12.0)%
(11.7)%

4.0%
5.5%
6.9%
7.5%

3rd Q 2015
November
November
3rd Q 2015
July 2015

84.3
221.46
7.0%
$269.5 billion
6,828,065

6.6%
0.4%
0.5%
1.4%
N/A

17.7%
3.7%
3.2%
5.2%
1.5%

May
May

AA / Aa2
Stable

N/A
N/A

N/A
N/A

January 1st

1,802,325
1,053,347
306,466
189,588
79,595
775
57,734
114,820

(0.2)%
(0.3)%
(0.7)%
1.1%
1.1%
(6.2)%
0.2%
(1.9)%

13.1%
9.5%
9.8%
14.8%
118.8%
(58.6)%
2.1%
23.8%

Oct. 2015
October
December
December

51,130
18,927
1,279
42,722

(0.2)%
1.4%
N/A
(0.2)%

December
December

23,243
988,067

(2.2)%
(0.8)%

November
November

18,579
27,441

105
47

603
1,183

$16.4 trillion

2.1%

2.0%

96.5
124.6
238.1
109.8

4.2%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%

3.7%
3.4%
0.4%
0.4%

3rd Q, 2015
(3rd Estimate)
December
November
November
November

6.5%
10.1%
(65)
1.3%
(20.2)%
(4.9)%

7

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2016

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
Attorney General – Quarterly Reports on Legal
Settlements – A.R.S. § 41-191.01B, 41-192J, 44-1531.01D,
and 44-1531.02D requires the Attorney General (AG) to
report quarterly to the JLBC on the receipts to and
disbursements from the Antitrust Enforcement
Revolving Fund, the Consumer Protection - Consumer
Fraud (CPCF) Revolving Fund and the Consumer
Restitution and Remediation Revolving Fund (including
its 2 subaccounts), as well as deposits made to the
General Fund.
In the second quarter of FY 2016, the AG deposited a
total of $7.9 million into various consumer accounts. Of
that amount, $3.6 million was deposited to the CPCF
Revolving Fund, $53,200 to the Restitution Subaccount,
and $4.3 million to the Remediation Subaccount. No
monies from legal settlements were deposited to the
Antitrust Enforcement Revolving Fund or the General
Fund. Only the $4.3 million deposit to the Remediation
Subaccount requires JLBC review prior to expenditure.
Deposits to the CPCF Revolving Fund
The AG deposited $3.6 million to the CPCF Revolving
Fund in the second quarter of FY 2016. Of that
amount, $2.0 million was a settlement with Standard
and Poor’s Financial Services, LLC (S&P) and $1.5
million was from a settlement with Amgen. Monies
deposited into the CPCF Revolving Fund may be used
for any purpose permitted by statute.
S&P
The AG sued S&P, as did several other states and the
federal government, for misrepresenting to investors its
financial rating of structure finance securities, such as
subprime mortgage-backed bonds. After 2 years of
litigation, Arizona received a $21.5 million settlement.
The FY 2016 budget transferred $16.0 million of the
legal settlement to the General Fund. Of the
remaining $5.5 million, the AG allocated $2 million to
the CPCF Revolving Fund for attorneys’ fees and and
$3.5 million into the Remediation Subaccount for other
programs. (See Deposits to Consumer Remediation
Subaccount below for more information.)
Amgen
The AG sued Amgen, a pharmaceutical company, as
did 47 other states, for improperly marketing 2 drugs,
Aransep and Enbrel, in violation of the Arizona
Consumer Fraud Act. Arizona received $2.3 million as
part of a $71.0 million multi-state settlement. The AG
allocated approximately $1.5 million to the CPCF
Revolving Fund for health-related consumer protection

investigations, litigation and law enforcement efforts.
The remaining $782,500 was deposited into the
Remediation Subaccount for other programs. (See
Deposits to Consumer Remediation Subaccount below
for more information.)
Deposits to the Consumer Restitution Subaccount
The AG deposited $53,200 in the second quarter of FY
2016 to the Restitution Subaccount to compensate
specific entities for economic loss resulting from
consumer fraud. Of that amount, $52,300 came from
legal settlements and the remainder came from interest
income.
Deposits to the Consumer Remediation Subaccount
The AG deposited $4.3 million in the second quarter of
FY 2016 to the Remediation Subaccount to rectify
violations of consumer protection laws. Of that
amount, $3.5 million came from a settlement with S&P,
$782,500 came from a settlement with Amgen, and the
remaining $16,500 resulted from interest income. An
expenditure plan must be reviewed by the JLBC before
any funds are spent from this account. Those reviews
have not yet occurred. (Details of the 2 settlements
below can be found in the Deposits to the CPCF
Revolving Fund section above.)
S&P
Of the $3.5 million from S&P, AG proposes to spend $3.0
million on homeless assistance programs and $500,000
on consumer fraud education efforts.
Amgen
The AG proposes to spend the entirety of the $782,500
on health care or pharmaceutical education programs
to be administered by the AG.(Matt Gress)
Department of Child Safety – Quarterly Report on Foster
Care Medicaid – Pursuant to Laws 2013, Chapter 220,
the Department of Child Safety (DCS) is required to
report on foster care and Medicaid eligibility.
During the first quarter of FY 2016, DCS reports the
following trends on foster care and Medicaid eligibility:
1.

2.

There were 16,291 children eligible for Medicaid in
foster care at the end of the first quarter, up 0.4%
from 16,230 at the end of the fourth quarter of FY
2015.
The percentage of foster care children eligible for
Medicaid declined from 95% at the end of the
fourth quarter of FY 2015 to 94% at the end of the
first quarter of FY 2016.

8

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2016

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
3.

4.

The amount of non-Medicaid behavioral health
group home expenditures used by DCS to
supplement Medicaid behavioral health
placement services was $1.5 million in the first
quarter of FY 2016.
The amount of non-Medicaid behavioral health
evaluation/counseling expenditures used by DCS
to supplement Medicaid behavioral health
services was $176,983 in the first quarter of FY 2016.
(Ben Beutler)







Department of Child Safety (DCS) – Semi-Annual
Progress Report – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 8-818, DCS has
submitted its semi-annual financial and program
accountability report covering the period of January
2015 through June 2015.

The semi-annual report was statutorily due on August 1,
2015 but was not received until December 23, 2015.
According to the report, out-of-home placements
increased by 4.8% from 17,383 in January to 18,213 in
June. Caseloads are above the department’s goals
and turnover for case managers was approximately
35.4%. Employee satisfaction decreased to a 3.5 rating
on a 5 point scale. The contents of this report,
covering the last 6 months of FY 2015, are summarized
below.


DCS reports that annualized caseworker turnover
during January - June 2015 was 35.4%, up from a
25.7% annualized rate in the last report.
The percent of Office of Administrative Hearings
decisions affirming DCS case findings decreased
from 79.4% to 66.7%. The percent of complaints
validated by the Ombudsman decreased from
26.5% to 21.9%.
The number of congregate care placements
increased from 2,319 to 2,535, a 9.3% increase. DCS
also reports that from June to December the number
of children aged 0-3 in shelter care grew from 37 to
44, the number of children aged 0-6 in group homes
increased from 68 to 84, and the number of children
in shelter care for more than 21 days increased from
898 to 916.
As of June 2015, workload per caseworker remains
considerably higher than the revised caseload goals
established during the May 2014 Special Session, with
investigations at 18 (goal: 13), in-home cases at 44
(goal: 33), and out-of-home children at 30 (goal: 20).
Table 7 provides a historical view of workload by
caseworker responsibility since 2008; it also displays
how much workload exceeds the caseload
standard in the “percent above workload standard”
line. (Ben Beutler)

Department of Child Safety (DCS) – Report on
Performance Benchmarks – Pursuant to a footnote in
Laws 2014, 2nd Special Session, Chapter 2, the
Department of Child Safety (DCS) has submitted its
second quarter report on the backlog, hiring, and
expenditures.

The Training Academy had 197 new caseworkers
in training as of June 2015. During the time period
from January 2015 to June 2015, 99 caseworkers
graduated from the Training Academy, or (165)
fewer graduates than in the previous 6-month
period.

Table 7
Caseworker Workload

Investigations
In-Home Cases
Out-of-Home Children
Percent Above Workload Standard
Total Case-Carrying Caseworkers
Caseworkers Required by Standard

Dec.
2008
15
28
24

Dec.
2009
15
27
23

Dec.
2010
15
30
25

Dec.
2011
15
32
27

Dec.
2012
15
33
36

Dec.
2013
16
47
25

Dec.
2014
16
42
29

June
2015
18
44
30

9%
818
890

9%
761
829

15%
764
879

22%
781
955

48%
750
1,107

28%
983
1,263

37%
1,019
1,397

44%
1,025
1,473

9

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2016

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
Second Quarter Benchmark - Filled FTE Positions
As outlined in Table 8 below, DCS had 1,279 filled direct
line staff in the second quarter, or (127) FTE Positions
below its benchmark of 1,406.
Second Quarter Benchmark - Reducing the Backlog
In June 2014, DCS set benchmarks for reducing the
backlog. As shown in Table 9 below, DCS activated all
13,024 backlog cases, but 1,715 cases had relapsed
into inactivity as of December 2015. In total, DCS had
14,392 backlog cases as of December 2015 (including
12,677 post-June 2 cases), more than the benchmark of
1,000.
Expenditures on Personal Services
DCS spent $33.9 million on salaries including overtime
for 2,673 FTE Positions in the second quarter of FY 2016.
Second Quarter Benchmark - Expenditures to Reduce
the Backlog
DCS was appropriated $23.1 million from the General
Fund and $5.9 million from Federal Funds for a total of
$29.0 million in FY 2015 for the elimination of the June 2
backlog. Consistent with the Executive’s May 2014
Special Session proposal and the Legislature’s 3-year
spending plan, the FY 2016 budget for backlog
elimination was reduced to $12.4 million General Fund
and $3.9 million from Federal Funds, totaling $16.3
million. DCS anticipates that the cost of placement
services for backlog cases will exceed appropriated

backlog resources by $2.7 million in FY 2016. In the
second quarter of FY 2016, DCS spent $2.8 million on
backlog reduction for support services and
placements. The expenditure figure does not include
the cost of caseworker overtime to investigate backlog
cases. (Ben Beutler)
Arizona Community Colleges – Annual Report – Pursuant
to A.R.S. § 15-1427, the Arizona Community Colleges are
required to report by December 1 of each year on their
progress during the previous year. Their FY 2015 report
was summarized in the December issue of the Monthly
Fiscal Highlights, but they recently submitted revised
data, which includes the following updated summary
information on the state system:







304,770 students (headcount) were enrolled for
credit, resulting in a Full-Time Student Equivalent
count of 120,833.
91.7% of enrolled students resided within the
district, while 8.3% did not reside within the district
or had an unknown residency status.
Total number of instructors employed was 10,525,
of which 2,538 (24.1%) were full-time and 7,987
(75.9%) were part-time.
Total operating revenues were $1.6 billion (this
amount excludes bond proceeds and fund
balance which total $126.0 million).
Total expenditures were $1.7 billion. (Tom Ritland)

Table 8

Progress in Hiring Caseworkers by Quarter
Actuals
Direct Line Staff Type
Case-Carrying Caseworkers
Caseworkers in Training
Hotline Staff
Total

Benchmark
1,190
140
76
1,406

June 30, 2015
1,025
164
74
1,263

Sept. 30, 2015
972
212
71
1,255

Dec. 14, 2015
947
257
75
1,279

Table 9

Progress Reducing the Backlog by Quarter
Actuals
Remaining Backlog Cases
Total Backlog Cases
Relapsed June 2, 2014 Backlog Cases
Post-June 2, 2014 Backlog Cases

Benchmark
1,000
0
1,000

June 30, 2015
14,946
3,139
11,807

Sept. 30, 2015
14,558
2,253
12,305

Dec. 14, 2015
14,392
1,715
12,677

10

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2016

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
Arizona Criminal Justice Commission – Report on State
Aid to County Attorneys Fund and the State Aid to
Indigent Defense Fund – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 41-2409E,
the Arizona Criminal Justice Commission (ACJC) is
required to report on expenditures for the prior fiscal
year from the State Aid to County Attorneys Fund and
State Aid to Indigent Defense Fund by January 8 of
each year.
In FY 2015, the State Aid to County Attorneys Fund
received revenues totaling $735,100 and had an
ending balance of $1.2 million. ACJC did not distribute
State Aid to Indigent Defense Fund revenues to
counties in FY 2015, as they were appropriated for
other non-Indigent Defense areas.
ACJC reports that county attorneys, out of their
$973,600 appropriation, reported expenditures of
$813,100 in FY 2015. Of that total, $741,400 was spent
on salary and benefits, $1,800 on equipment, $18,500
on other expenditures, $25,800 for contractual services,
$24,500 on case management software, and $1,200 on
travel.
ACJC reports that counties used the monies in 3 main
areas: additional staffing, technological purchases,
and training and travel expenses. Training and travel
expenses funded witness travel and staff attendance
at educational seminars and conferences.
ACJC also states that no prosecuting agencies
reported case processing times that met the Supreme
Court guidelines, however, some agencies did report
meeting the felony case processing standard for 180day adjudication. (Krista MacGahan)
Arizona Department of Education – Report on Current
Year Funding – The FY 2016 K-12 Education BRB
required the department to notify school districts by
December 15, 2015 on how it plans to implement
current year Average Daily Membership (ADM)
funding in FY 2017 and report the estimated fiscal
impact by district. ADE recently released the required
report, which is based on ADM data from FY 2015. It
estimates that current year ADM funding would have
resulted in a net state savings of $(24.2) million in FY
2015 if it had been in effect for that year. The $(24.2)
million estimate, however, assumes that both the Base
Support Level (BSL) and District Additional Assistance
(DAA) would be funded on a current year basis. The
policy intent was to fund only the BSL on current year
ADM in order to eliminate the BSL “hold harmless.”
Without the DAA increase the department’s estimated
net state aid savings would be $(30.7) million. The
actual savings for this issue will depend on final ADM
counts for FY 2017, which will not be known until after
the end of FY 2017. (Steve Schimpp)

Arizona Department of Education – Report on K-12
Aggregate Expenditure Limit – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15911B, the State Board of Education recently reported that
currently budgeted expenditures for all school districts
collectively statewide for FY 2016 are $(813.1) million
below the Constitution’s aggregate expenditure
limitation (AEL). For FY 2015 the difference was $(593.5)
million. The $(813.1) million figure does not reflect an
estimated $203.4 million in additional funding that school
districts (excluding charter schools) potentially will receive
in FY 2016 under Proposition 123. That funding, if received
and budgeted for FY 2016, would cause statewide school
district expenditures to be below the AEL by an estimated
$(609.7) million rather than $(813.1) million for FY 2016.
The AEL limits growth in non-exempted statewide K-12
expenditures for school districts (excluding charter
schools) to the combined rate of growth for enrollment
and inflation, with certain exceptions. (Steve Schimpp)
Arizona Department of Education – Override Report –
Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-249.04, the Arizona Department of
Education (ADE) recently reported FY 2016 data on
school district budget overrides. Overrides permit school
districts to generate and spend additional monies from
local property taxes if approved by voters. The ADE
report indicates that 91 districts statewide have
Maintenance and Operation (M&O) overrides pursuant
to A.R.S. § 15-481 in FY 2016, 5 have “Special Program”
overrides pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-482, and 23 have
“District Additional Assistance” overrides pursuant to
A.R.S. § 15-481. The total amounts budgeted for overrides
for FY 2016 include $402.2 million for both types of M&O
overrides combined and $61.0 million for District
Additional Assistance overrides. (Steve Schimpp)
JLBC Staff – Public Programs Eligibility Report – As enacted
in the 2006 election, Proposition 300 limits participation in
certain state programs to citizens, legal residents, or other
persons lawfully present in the United States, and requires
semi-annual reports to the Joint Legislative Budget
Committee. Below is a summary of the reports:
Universities – At the 3 universities, 163,254 students
registered for the fall 2015 semester. Of the total students
registered, the universities were able to verify the legal
immigration status of 149,943 students. Additionally, the
universities reported that 17,040 of these students did not
require verification because they have either not
requested, or received in-state tuition or state supported
financial aid. The universities reported that no students
were unverifiable due to their inability to provide the
requisite documentation.
Department of Economic Security – The department
reported that 10,903 applications were received for child
care assistance during the reporting period of June 1,
2015 to November 30, 2015. Of this number, 15 were

11

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2016

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
denied because criteria for citizenship or legal
residency were not met.
Community Colleges – Statewide, the Community
Colleges reported a total of 227,139 students classified
as in-state for the fall 2015 semester. They reported 395
students who were not entitled to be classified as instate because of a lack of lawful immigration status.
Additionally, 94,951 students applied for financial aid.
Of those who applied, the community colleges
reported that 76 were not entitled to any aid because
they were not lawfully present in the United States.
Department of Education – The department reported
that 12,386 people applied for instruction in Arizona
Adult Education during the reporting period of June 1,
2015 to December 1, 2015. Of this amount, 735 were
denied instruction because they failed to provide
evidence of citizenship or legal residence in the United
States. The Arizona Adult Education program is
currently funded with Federal Funds and had been
funded by a combination of federal and state funds
previously. (Matt Beienburg)
Ombudsman-Citizens Aide Office – Annual Report –
Pursuant to A.R.S. § 41-1376, the Ombudsman-Citizens
Aide is to submit an annual written report by January 1
summarizing their activities during the previous fiscal
year (FY), and semiannually present this report before
Legislative Council. The Ombudsman-Citizens Aide
issued an annual report for FY 2015 dated December
28, 2015. The FY 2015 annual report cites examples of
cases in the office’s 3 focus areas: general complaints
about state agencies, Department of Child Safety
cases, and public access cases. There were 5,009 total
cases in FY 2015 including 3,394 involving coaching,
1,295 needing assistance, and 320 requesting
investigations. Of the 320 requests for investigations,
235 were completed, 8 are ongoing, 39 were
discontinued or the complaint was withdrawn, and the
Ombudsman declined to investigate 38. (Bob Hull)
School Facilities Board (SFB) – Annual Report on Class B
Bond Approvals - Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-2002, SFB is
required to annually report to JLBC by December 31 on
all Class B bond approvals by school districts in that
year. Each school district is required to report Class B
bond approvals to SFB by December 1 of each year.
SFB submitted its annual report to JLBC on December
31, 2015. However, due to a lack of school district
reporting, the data contained in the SFB submission was
incomplete. Based on the JLBC Staff estimates, there
were 14 districts with Class B bond approvals in 2015 for
a total of $937.1 million. (Josh Hope)

Secretary of State - Report on the Election Systems
Improvement Fund – Pursuant to a General
Appropriation Act footnote and A.R.S. § 41-129C, the
Secretary of State (SOS) submitted a report on the
expenditures from the Election Systems Improvement
Fund to implement the Help America Vote Act. The
expenditures in FY 2015 were $1.7 million and are
projected to be $2.9 million in FY 2016 and $2.5 million in
FY 2017. SOS reports that FY 2015 expenditures were
used as follows: 33.2% for voter registration, 2.7% on
voter accessibility, 20% for administration, 44% on voter
education, and 0.1% for telecommunication and
training. A similar distribution is expected to continue
for FY 2016 and FY 2017. (Krista MacGahan)
Arizona Board of Regents – Report on University System’s
Financial Aid – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-1650, the Arizona
Board of Regents is required to submit an annual report
on financial aid. Highlights from the FY 2015 report
include:









Approximately $2.2 billion in total financial aid was
provided to students.
Of this amount, $986.3 million (44.8%) came from
federal sources, $744.5 million (33.8%) came from
tuition and other sources, $467.9 million (21.3%)
came from private sources and the Arizona
Financial Aid Trust (AFAT) (AFAT distributed $20.7
million of both state General Fund and institutional
monies in FY 2015), and $1.2 million (0.1%) came
from state scholarships, grants and loans.
A total of 139,487 students received aid, including
113,288 undergraduate students and 26,199
graduate students.
Of the undergraduate students receiving aid,
27,566 received non-need-based gift aid, 61,414
received need-based gift aid, and 51,949 were
awarded miscellaneous types of non-gift aid (i.e.
work study). Some students received multiple types
of aid.
The average aid package for undergraduate
students was $11,852, which includes both need
and non-need-based aid.
60.3% of undergraduate students and 53.1% of
graduate students have debt. Upon graduation,
the average undergraduate student debt was
$23,470, while the average graduate student debt
was $49,526. (Matt Gress)

12

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2016

December Spending
December 2015 General Fund spending of $599.0 million
was $(22.6) million less than December 2014. Year to date,
spending is $5.76 billion, or $(60.5) million below last year.
(See Tables 10 & 11).


Year to date, the Department of Education has spent
$70.7 million more than the prior year.



Due to technical reporting issues with the newlycreated Department of Child Safety (DCS) in FY 2015,
the figures reported below for DCS and the Department
of Economic Security do not accurately reflect changes
in spending levels from the prior year.



Even after accounting for issues relating to DCS, the
significant decline in DES spending year-to-date is
due to technical timing issues relating to the
disbursement of Medicaid matching funds.



During FY 2016, Universities spending has declined by
$(57.7) million. This is related to changes enacted in
the FY 2016 budget, which contained a $(99.0)
million spending reduction for the Universities system.

Table 10
General Fund Spending ($ in Millions)
Change From

YTD Change

Dec 15

Dec 14

Year-to-Date

from FY 15

AHCCCS

155.2

(16.1)

654.1

(46.4)

Corrections

78.1

4.9

532.8

42.3

Child Safety

9.5

(69.2)

176.0

97.3

Economic Security

2.0

71.6

402.3

(117.7)

Education

272.3

(4.6)

2,471.8

70.7

Health Serv ices

14.0

2.3

516.2

(0.8)

Public Safety

1.6

0.6

39.9

1.5

School Facilities Board

0.1

(0.0)

161.9

5.9

Univ ersities

36.6

(9.4)

431.5

(57.7)

Agency

Leaseback Debt Serv ice

0.0

0.0

84.1

(0.0)

Other

29.6

(2.7)

291.1

(55.6)

Total

599.0

(22.6)

5,761.7

(60.5)

13

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2016

Table 11

General Fund Spending
($ in Thousands)
Agency

Dec 15

Change from
Dec 14

Year-to-Date

YTD Change
from FY 15

Dept. of Admin./Automation Projects Fund
ADOA – Sale/Leaseback Debt Service
Office of Administrative Hearings
Commission of African-American Affairs
Department of Agriculture
AHCCCS
Attorney General
State Board of Charter Schools

694.6
40.4
7.4
624.8
155,201.7
1,622.1
73.5

(3,130.3)
(1.2)
7.4
148.1
(16,110.0)
605.2
8.7

11,538.6
84,114.6
425.8
53.6
4,299.8
654,093.3
10,375.7
556.8

(27,925.5)
(7.1)
(21.6)
53.6
21.3
(46,368.4)
308.1
99.8

Department of Child Safety
AZ Commerce Authority
Community Colleges
Corporation Commission
Department of Corrections
County Funding
AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind
Department of Economic Security
State Board of Education
Department of Education
DEMA
DEQ – WQARF
Office of Equal Opportunity
State Board of Equalization
Board of Executive Clemency
Department of Financial Institutions
Department of Fire, Bldg and Life Safety
State Forester
Department of Gaming
Arizona Geological Survey
Governor/OSPB
Department of Health Services
Arizona Historical Society
Prescott Historical Society of AZ
Independent Redistricting Comm.
Commission of Indian Affairs
Department of Insurance
Judiciary
Supreme/Superior Court
Court of Appeals
Department of Juvenile Corrections

9,498.8
2,775.0
253.6
24.7
78,119.7
2.5
1,868.1
2,003.5
76.8
272,322.4
490.2
7,000.0
18.2
23.5
55.4
255.0
128.4
296.9
122.4
1,216.8
13,957.9
143.2
63.8
172.7
2.5
340.6

(69,188.0)
(1,703.1)
(18.3)
4,886.9
2.5
1,285.7
71,627.7
76.8
(4,623.1)
(326.4)
7,000.0
5.4
(1.2)
(1.0)
42.5
27.1
53.8
74.0
64.0
2,338.0
(41.3)
11.1
69.1
(4.4)
27.1

175,971.0
15,900.0
25,959.2
263.6
532,814.8
6,000.5
14,683.2
402,301.3
588.8
2,471,844.5
4,218.8
7,000.0
85.8
330.6
486.9
1,573.6
1,006.9
2,677.8
1,794.4
489.2
5,037.6
516,196.0
1,803.3
438.1
619.4
20.1
2,651.6

97,284.1
(10,408.1)
(37.4)
42,329.0
(1,650.0)
3,297.1
(117,657.8)
588.8
70,739.7
1,218.9
11.6
8.8
(8.0)
21.6
(69.0)
916.6
1,794.4
13.5
(757.5)
(761.9)
1.4
92.8
68.8
(9.2)
(67.2)

1,904.3
1,001.6
1,689.2

324.2
13.6
(1,142.6)

44,677.8
7,117.5
13,957.5

(2,126.2)
74.0
(6,110.5)

14

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2016

Table 11 (Continued)

Agency
State Land Department
Legislature
Auditor General
House of Representatives
Joint Legislative Budget Comm.
Legislative Council
Senate
Mine Inspector
Nav. Streams & Adjudication
Occupational Safety and Health Review
Arizona State Parks Board
Phoenix Convention Center
Pioneers’ Home
Comm. for Postsecondary Ed.
Department of Public Safety
Public Safety Personnel Retirement System
Arizona Department of Racing
Radiation Regulatory Agency
Real Estate Department
Department of Revenue
Rio Nuevo Distribution
School Facilities Board
Secretary of State
Tax Appeals Board
Office of Tourism
Department of Transportation
Universities
Board of Regents
Arizona State University
Northern Arizona University
University of Arizona
Department of Veteran Services
Department of Water Resources
Water Infrastructure Finance Authority
Department of Weights & Measures
Other - JP Salaries Distribution
Other
Total

Dec 15

Change from
Dec 14

Year-to-Date

YTD Change
from FY 15

651.8

(77.3)

5,716.4

(690.2)

1,507.9
1,103.8
170.5
569.5
590.5
71.6
9.9
0.9
1,646.0
0.0
156.1
(186.9)
85.4
776.7
17.5
-

(84.7)
65.5
1.8
(342.6)
(95.4)
(1.8)
(1.0)
0.9
(8.5)
569.8
(0.9)
(30.0)
(5,645.4)
(13.0)
104.9
(0.8)
-

10,064.2
6,860.9
1,146.7
3,355.0
3,720.1
581.3
64.1
2.5
275.3
20,449.0
698.4
39,864.7
6,000.0
815.3
1,339.9
24,050.1
161,877.4
5,396.2
145.6
4,977.3
-

(99.9)
761.7
21.1
(1,675.7)
(304.5)
(26.8)
(25.4)
1.6
275.3
(832.2)
1,511.2
(1,789.7)
64.9
(27.3)
(5,920.1)
5,902.1
(2,096.7)
(0.9)
(1,995.3)
-

22.0
16,627.6
5,826.9
14,080.3
434.5
727.8
23.1
4.4
7.6
599,017.9

(378.0)
(4,931.6)
(1,488.6)
(2,586.1)
97.0
(71.3)
(75.0)
4.4
7.6
(22,571.9)

12,270.2
190,340.8
65,456.2
163,411.4
2,640.4
5,142.1
562.7
508.3
33.3
5,761,733.7

(3,668.4)
(29,589.8)
(8,931.8)
(15,516.8)
320.1
(93.0)
(1,000.0)
(109.9)
86.9
29.3
(60,461.6)

JLBC
Jul 14

3

JLBC
Jul 13
Jul 14
Jul 15

Jan 15

35,000

Jan 14

Jul 12
Jul 13

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jan 14

8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
Jan 13

Jul 12

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

2,200

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jan 10

Jul 09

Jan 09

Jul 08

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jan 07

Jul 06

Jan 06

Jul 05

Jan 05

Jul 04

Jan 04

Jul 03

Jan 03

Jul 02

Jan 02

Jul 01

Jan 01

Thousands of Jobs
2,300

Jan 13

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jan 10

Jul 09

Jan 09

Jul 08

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jan 07

Jul 06

Jan 06

Jul 05

Jan 05

Jul 04

Jan 04

Jul 03

Jan 03

Jul 02

Jan 02

Jul 01

Jan 01

Year Over Year Growth (%)

2,400

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jan 10

Jul 09

Jan 09

Jul 08

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jan 07

3.0% Y/Y Growth
(November 2015)

Jul 06

$19

Jan 06

$20

Jul 05

$23.49 / Hour
(November 2015)

Jan 05

$23

Jul 04

$25

Jan 04

Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector

Jul 03

$22

Total Monthly Claims for UI Benefits

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

JLBC

Jan 03

Jan 11
July 11

1

Jul 02

Jan 10
July 10

2……Total Non-Farm Employment
3……Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector
4……Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
5……State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
6……State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting
Category
7……Residential Building Permits
8……Economic Activity Index

Jan 02

Jan 09
July 09

January 2016
Appendix A

Jul 01

Jan 01

Jul-15

Jan-15

12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%

Jan 14

Jan 08
July 08

$21

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 11

July 10

Jan 07
July 07

$ / Hour

Page:

Jan 10

July 09

Jan 09

July 08

Jan 08

July 07

Jan 07

Year Over Year Growth (%)

Tracking Arizona’s Recovery

Total Non-Farm Employment

2,800

2,700

2,600

2,500

$22.73 / Hour
(Octoberjobs
2014)
2,698,000
(November 2015)

2,100

2.5% Y/Y Growth
(November 2015)

2

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

$24

45,000

40,000

30,000

15,658 Claims
(November 2015)

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

Not seasonally adjusted

4

State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category

State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting Category
$100

$225
$75

$ in Millions

$175

$150

$25

$192.7 million
(December 2015)

* January 2014 estimate adjusted downward by $30 million to reflect onetime category shift.

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

5

Jul 15

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jan 12

Jan 11

July 11

Jan 10

July 10

Jan 09

July 09

Jan 08

July 08

Jan 07

Jul 15

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jan 11

July 11

Jan 10

July 10

Jan 09

July 09

Jan 08

Economic Activity Index
240

100,000

221.5 Index Value
(November 2015)

230

90,000

220

80,000

Coincident Index Value

70,000
60,000

Single Family Unit- 22,184 Permits
Multi-Family Unit- 9,794 Permits
(Nov. 2015)

50,000
40,000
30,000

210
200
190
180
170
160

20,000

150

10,000

7

JLBC

Source: Coincident Index – Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Combines four state-level indicators
(employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary
disbursements) to summarize current economic conditions.

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jul 09

Jan 10

Jul 08

Jan 09

Jul 07

Jan 08

Jul 06

Jan 07

Jul 05

Jan 06

Jul 04

Jan 05

Jul 03

Jan 04

Jan 03

Jul 02

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jul 11

Jan 12

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jul 09

Jan 10

Jul 08

Jan 09

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jul 06

Jan 07

Jul 05

Jul 04

Jan 05

Jul 03

Jan 04

Jan 03

Jul 02

Jan 02

Jul 01

Jan 01

Jan 06

12-Month Moving Sum

Jan 02

Jan 01

140

0

Jul 01

Building Permits

6

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

Residential Building Permits

JLBC

July 08

JLBC

July 07

(19.7)% Y/Y Growth
(December 2015)
July 07

Year Over Year Growth (%)

Jul 15

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jan 11

July 11

Jan 10

July 10

Jan 09

July 09

Jan 08

July 08

* Jan 14

JLBC

July 07

Jan 07

4.7 % Y/Y Growth
(December 2015)

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

July 06

$0

Jul 15

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

* Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jan 12

Jan 11

July 11

Jan 10

July 10

Jan 09

July 09

Jan 08

July 08

Jan 07

July 06

20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
July 06

Year Over Year Growth (%)

July 07

$100

Jan 07

$125

$37.1 million
(December 2015)

$50

July 06

$ in Millions

$200

8