JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights

October 2015

Summary
1716 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Phone:
(602) 926-5491
Fax:
(602) 926-5416

September 2015 collections of $838.6 million
were (3.3)% below the prior year, and were
$17.2 million above the enacted budget
forecast.
A decline in overall revenues was expected
due to the one-time nature of FY 2015
Corporate Income Tax gains along with the
phase in of Corporate Income Tax reductions.
The Corporate decline, however, was offset in
part by unexpected gains in the Individual
Income Tax category, leading to a total
forecast gain for the month.

www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

“Year-to-date,
base General
Fund
revenues…are
1.8% above
the prior year,
and are $63.0
million above
forecast.”

Individual Income Tax was $26.4 million above
forecast for the month. This forecast overage
was the result of 12.5% growth in estimated and
final payments above September 2014.
September is one of the four estimated
payment months during the year.
The higher level of September payments may
have been in reaction to tax bills during the
April 2015 tax filing season. Capital gains are
thought to have driven the 13.9% increase in
final payments in FY 2015. To avoid a penalty for
insufficient estimated payments in FY 2016,
taxpayers may be increasing their estimated
payments.
The state’s “core” revenues – withholding and
Sales Tax did not fare as well in September.
Withholding declined by (5.0)% compared to
September 2014. Sales Tax also continued its
slow performance, with growth of 2.8% for the
month. The category has grown at a rate
below 3.0% during 4 of the last 5 months. This
slow growth may be related to the
implementation of the TPT legislation that
became effective in January 2015.
Year-to-date, base General Fund revenues
(excluding Urban Revenue Sharing and Fund
Transfers) are 1.8% above the prior year, and
are $63.0 million above forecast.

In comparison to revenue collections of $838.6
million, September 2015 spending was $725.8
million, which is a decrease of $(53.4) million
from the prior year. The Department of
Administration has made spending data
available for the first time this fiscal year
Fiscal year-to-date, General Fund revenues of
$2.21 billion have been offset by $3.93 billion of
expenditures.
The state’s fiscal health can also be measured
by the operating fund balance. The state pays
its bill out of the operating fund balance, which
consists of the General Fund and certain
dedicated funds. The operating balance as of
mid-October 2015 is $1.6 billion. In addition, the
state’s Budget Stabilization Fund has a balance
of $458.5 million.
October FAC Summary
The Finance Advisory Committee (FAC) met on
October 8, 2015 to update its 4-sector revenue
forecast. The FAC is a 12-member panel of
private and public sector economists and their
views serve as one of the 4 equal inputs into
JLBC’s Consensus Baseline revenue forecast.
The remaining 3 inputs are the JLBC Staff
forecast and 2 University of Arizona (UA)
models. The JLBC Staff provided the FAC with a
presentation on updated FY 2016 – FY 2019
budget projections.
Driven by one-time factors, the state is
projected to have a cash balance of $650
million in FY 2017. Of this amount, $250 million
may be available for ongoing initiatives without
re-creating a long run structural gap where
permanent spending exceeds permanent
revenue.
The cash balance is also subject to several risk
factors. These include the ongoing K-12
litigation and a possible recession, based on
the length of the current economic expansion
compared to the historical averages. For more
information, please see the JLBC Staff Budget
Update and October FAC meeting materials.

Table of Contents
This report has been
prepared for the Arizona
Legislature by the Joint
Legislative Budget
Committee Staff on
October 20, 2015.

Summary
• October FAC Summary...................................... 1
September Revenues ............................................. 2
Monthly Indicators .................................................. 4
JLBC Meeting ........................................................... 7
JCCR Meeting .......................................................... 8
Summary of Recent Agency Reports
• ADOA – Telecommunications Office .............. 8
• AHCCCS – Immigration Verification ................ 9
• DCS – CMDP Integration ..................................... 9

Comm. Colleges – Dual Enrollment .................9
DES – Developmentally Disabled Report ........9
DES – Child Care Expenditure Report ..............9
DHS – Serious Mental Illness Report ............... 10
JLBC Staff – County Flexibility Report ............ 10
DOR – Tax Credit Report ................................. 10
Universities – Research Income ...................... 11
September Spending .......................................... 11
Tracking Arizona’s Recovery ............ Appendix A
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

2

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2015

September Revenues
Table 1

September
Year-to-Date

General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions)
FY 2016
Collections
$ 838.6
$ 2,210.6

Difference From
Budget Forecast
$ 17.2
$ 63.0

Sales Tax collections of $354.6 million were 2.8% above
September of last year and essentially at forecast for the
month.
Table 2 below includes the major categories of the state’s
sales tax, which together account for approximately 90%
of total collections.
The trend of strong year-over-year retail sales tax growth
and declining contracting tax collections continued in
September. The retail category, which makes up close
to 50% of total sales tax collections, increased by 8.3% in
September, whereas the contracting category declined
by (21.1)%. Since the beginning of the January, the
retail tax is up by 10.0% whereas the contracting tax is
down by (17.1)%
The simultaneous increase of retail sales tax collections
and decline of contracting tax collections since the
beginning of 2015 appear to be related to “TPT
Simplification” legislation enacted in 2013, under which
the tax base for building materials changed from
contracting to retail, beginning in 2015.
Tax collections from restaurant and bar sales declined
by (2.5)% in September, the first year-over-year
decrease since February 2011. However, after
accounting for technical adjustments made by the
Department of Revenue last year, the underlying growth
for this sales tax category becomes 4.5%.
Table 2
Sales Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year
Retail
Contracting
Use
Restaurant & Bar
Utilities

September
8.3%
(21.1)%
17.3%
(2.5)%
4.6%

YTD
9.5%
(19.4)%
0.8%
4.2%
(0.2)%

Individual Income Tax net revenues were an estimated
$393.7 million in September, which were $2.5 million
above the prior year and $26.4 million above the forecast
for the month. Year-to-date, revenue has grown 5.0%
over the prior year to a level that is $77.3 million above
the budget forecast.

Difference
From FY 2015
$
(28.6)
$
41.0

As indicated in Table 3, withholding decreased by
(5.0)% for the month and was $(4.8) million below the
forecast. Year-to-date withholding collections were
$40.2 million above the forecast.
September estimated and final payments of $132.4
million were 12.5% above last year and $27.9 million
above the forecast. Year-to-date, payments are $35.4
million above the budget forecast.
September Individual Income Tax refunds totaled $(12.7)
million – this compares to $(14.8) million in September
2014 and a forecasted amount of $(16.0) million. Yearto-date, lower-than-expected refunds have led to a
$1.7 million gain compared to the enacted forecast.
Table 3

Individual Income Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

Withholding
Estimated +
Final Payments
Refunds

September
(5.0)%
12.5%
(14.4)%

YTD
3.7%
10.8%
(0.9)%

Corporate Income Tax net collections were estimated
to be $88.8 million in September, which was $(28.9)
million less than September of the prior year. Collections
for the month were $(6.2) million below the forecast.
Year to date, net collections are $0.9 million above the
forecast.
Insurance Premium Tax collections of $43.7 million in
September were (0.7)% below the prior year, but $3.8
million above forecast. Year-to-date, collections are
$(3.3) million below forecast.
Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) collections of $110.4
million in September were up $6.3 million, or 6.1%
compared to September of last year. September
collections were $3.4 million above forecast while yearto-date collections are $11.8 million above forecast.

3
Table 4

General Fund Revenue:
Change from Previous Year and Budget Forecast
September 2015
Current Month

FY 2016 YTD (Three Months)

Change From
Actual

September 2014

September 2015

Amount

Change from
Budget Forecast

Percent

Amount

Actual

Percent

September 2014

September 2015

Amount

Budget Forecast

Percent

Amount

Percent

Taxes
Sales and Use
Income - Individual
- Corporate
Property
Luxury - Tobacco
- Liquor
Insurance Premium
Other Taxes
Sub-Total Taxes

$354,595,811

$9,735,831

393,705,665

2,529,087

2.8 %
0.6

$513,165

0.1 %

26,387,335

7.2

$1,056,907,534

$27,851,824

1,025,353,931

49,146,515

5.0

($1,707,116)
77,282,429

(0.2) %
8.2

88,756,178

(28,892,827)

(24.6)

(6,154,930)

(6.5)

123,367,343

68,968

(10,076)

(12.7)

(5,137)

(6.9)

687,246

2,237,813

(1,871,775)

(45.5)

0

0.0

6,268,227

(1,903,394)

(23.3)

117,610

1.9

2,095,152

2,095,152

--

0

0.0

7,117,904

2,158,919

43.5

(366,915)

(4.9)

3,829,137

9.6

128,963,185

(98,975)

(0.1)

(3,338,851)

(2.5)

118,803

(1,443,901)

(92.4)

(1,459,381)

(92.5)

43,689,628

(328,213)

(0.7)

34,039

(663,203)

(95.1)

$885,183,254

($17,406,023)

(1.9) %

(859,226)
$23,710,343

(96.2)
2.8 %

$2,348,784,173

(20,809,513)

2.7 %

392,186

$55,293,662

(14.4)

883,828

0.7

132.9

266,974

63.5

2.4 %

$71,678,578

3.1 %

Other Revenue
Lottery
License, Fees and Permits
Interest
Sales and Services
Other Miscellaneous
Disproportionate Share
Transfers and Reimbursements
Sub-Total Other Revenue
TOTAL BASE REVENUE

0
2,170,980
51,526
1,866,991
(416,596)
0

(7,025,300) (100.0)
461,681

27.0

46,208

868.9

0
74,444

-3.6

0
7,537,991

(7,025,300) (100.0)
1,039,789

16.0

43,510

0
233,479

-3.2

(1,481,204)

(96.6)

51,958

515.0

(1,561,442)

(96.8)

(653,965)

(25.9)

(502,218)

(21.2)

2,498,040

(1,854,964)

(42.6)

(2,044,730)

(45.0)

(1,004,181)

--

(1,875,472)

--

2,006,311

(4,232,537)

(67.8)

(3,388,687)

(62.8)

--

0

(92.0)

1,104,148

(1,112,210)

(62.6) %

$13,198,448

($13,141,713)

2.0 %

$2,361,982,621

0

--

241,335

(1,350,531)

(84.8)

$3,914,237

($9,526,089)

(70.9) %

$889,097,491

($26,932,112)

(2.9) %

0
(2,758,665)
($6,543,115)
$17,167,228

0

$42,151,949

-(50.2)
(49.9) %
1.8 %

0
(1,895,852)
($8,657,232)
$63,021,346

-(63.2)
(39.6) %
2.7 %

Other Adjustments
Urban Revenue Sharing
One-Time Transfers
Sub-Total Other Adjustments
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE

(50,469,528)
0
(50,469,528)
$838,627,963

275,116

--

(1,969,047) (100.0)

(3)

0.0

0

--

(3)

0.0 %

(151,408,583)
0
(151,408,583)

825,347

--

(1,969,047) (100.0)
(1,143,700)

0.8 %

(8)

0.0

0

--

(8)

0.0 %

(1,693,930)

3.5 %

($28,626,042)

(3.3) %

$17,167,225

2.1 %

$2,210,574,038

$41,008,249

1.9 %

$63,021,338

2.9 %

6.1 %

$3,419,117

3.2 %

$331,051,188

$17,222,066

5.5 %

$11,752,264

3.7 %

Non-General Funds
Highway User Revenue Fund

$110,397,584

$6,305,114

4

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2015

Monthly Indicators
NATIONAL
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau
of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.9% in the
second quarter of 2015. This estimate is a noticeable
pick-up from the 0.6% growth in the first quarter of 2015.
The acceleration was primarily due to increased
consumption, exports, state and local government
spending, and fixed investment. These improvements
were partly offset by deceleration in inventory
investment and federal spending.

Arizona’s coincident index increased by 3.0% compared
to August 2014. Over the same time period, the U.S.
coincident index increased by 3.4%. Currently, Arizona’s
rate of annual coincident index growth is 37th in the
nation. Last year at this time, Arizona’s rate was also 37th
highest among states. See Appendix A – Tracking
Arizona’s Recovery for additional historical information.
Housing
The median price of a single family home was $224,900
in September, a 0.4% increase from August. The price is
12.5% higher than September of last year.

The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence
Index grew to 103.0 in September, continuing the August
recovery after having fallen to 91.0 in July. The latest
reading is the highest recorded since January 2015.
Economists think the rebound from prior low readings
may have been driven by decreases in gas prices and
calming of fears over stock market volatility.

Single-family housing construction is accelerating, while
multi-family construction has peaked. Arizona’s 12month total of single-family building permits is 20,785,
or 19.7% more than a year ago. The comparable
single-family permit growth rate for the entire U.S. is
8.0%. See Appendix A – Tracking Arizona’s Recovery for
historical information.

The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Economic Index
increased by 0.1% in August, returning the index to
positive monthly growth after flat growth in July. The
index stands 4.4% above its August 2014 reading. Of the
index’s 10 components, 5 made positive contributions, 1
was neutral, and 4 made negative contributions.
Movement in interest rates was once again the largest
positive contributor to the index. Increased
unemployment claims, decreases in manufacturing
orders and stock market performance provided the
majority of drag on the index.

The 12-month total of multi-family building permits was
increasing strongly compared to last year, but has
recently leveled off. Arizona’s total of 9,386 multifamily building permits is 2.8% above 2014. Arizona’s
rate of increase is now less than the comparable multifamily permit growth for the U.S. as a whole, which is
17.8% above 2014.

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau
of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Personal Consumption
Expenditure Price Index (PCEPI) was flat in August,
relative to July. The measure stands at just 0.3% above
the August 2014 level. The index’s annual growth has
been pulled well below the Federal Reserve Bank’s 2%
annual inflation target, largely due to a (16.2)% yearover-year decrease in energy prices. Annual growth in
the core index (all items except food and energy),
however, has grown by a steadier 1.3% through August.
ARIZONA
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s coincident
index gauges current economic activity in each state.
The index combines 4 indicators: employment, average
hours worked in manufacturing, unemployment rate, and
inflation-adjusted wages.

Employment
The state added a net total 28,800 nonfarm jobs from
August to September. The comparable 10-year
average net job increase is 23,600.
Compared to the same month in the prior year,
Arizona added 58,100 net new jobs in September,
which resulted in a year-over-year growth rate of 2.3%.
The year-over-year job gains in September were
concentrated to the following 3 sectors of the
economy: education and health services (+11,300),
leisure and hospitality (+11,300) and professional and
business services (+10,100), and.
The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate
remained unchanged at 6.3% in in September.
Compared to the same month last year, the
unemployment rate is down by (0.3)%. The U.S. jobless
rate was 5.1% in September, the same as in the prior
month.
In August, the Average Weekly Hours worked by
individuals in Arizona’s private sector was 35.1 hours.
This workload is 2.3% above the August 2014 level and
represents the largest year-over-year rate of growth

5

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2015

Monthly Indicators (Continued)
since July 2010. The Average Hourly Earnings received
by these private sector workers was $23.38, which is 1.6%
above the average in the prior month. August earnings
were 2.7% above the average in August 2014, which
represents the largest year-over-year rate of growth
since November 2013.
The U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic
Analysis quarterly releases estimates of annual Personal
Income received in each state. This measure includes
wages and salaries, proprietors’ income, dividends,
interest, rent, and various supplements to income while
excluding capital gains, contributions for government
social insurance, and pension benefit payments. In the
second quarter of 2015, Arizona personal income
increased at an annual rate of 4.2%, to $264.8 billion.
Tourism
Revenue per available room reached $51.34 in August,
which was 5.5% above the amount in August 2014.
Year to date, revenue per available room is 13.4%
above the 2014 year-to-date amount through August.
Ridership during August through Phoenix Sky Harbor
Airport increased 6.0% above the level in August 2014.
State Agency Data
At the beginning of October 2015, the total AHCCCS
caseload was 1.77 million members. Since the federal
health care expansion in January 2014, the overall
AHCCCS population has grown by 514,200 members.
Total monthly enrollment increased 0.8% during
September.
Enrollment in the Traditional program decreased (4.9)%
while enrollment of Proposition 204 parents and children
increased 47.6%. A total of 72,000 Proposition 204
parent and child enrollees were determined to have
been incorrectly enrolled in the Traditional program in
prior months. The large percentage changes in
Traditional and Proposition 204 parent and child
enrollment in September reflect the reclassification of
enrollees in their correct program.
In January 2014, the state started accepting new
enrollment to the Proposition 204 childless adults
program. In September 2015, the childless adult
population increased by 5,500, or 1.9%. At 298,800, this
population is 12.1% higher than a year ago.
The state also opted to expand adult Medicaid
coverage to 133% of FPL. Their enrollment increased by
1,800 in September and now totals 73,300 individuals.
Enrollment is 144% higher than a year ago. The federal
government is currently paying 100% of this cost.

In FY 2015, reports of child maltreatment, as reported
by the Department of Child Safety, increased by
12.6% over the prior fiscal year, going from 45,368 in
FY 2014 to 51,073 in FY 2015. For June 2015, the
department reports 18,059 children in out-of-home
care, or growth of 1.2% from the prior month. Out-ofhome children at the end of FY 2015 were up by 9.1%
compared to the end of FY 2014.
There were 24,301 TANF recipients in the state in
August, representing a 2.3% increase in monthly
caseloads over July. The year-over-year number of
TANF recipients has declined by (20.0)%. The
statutory lifetime limit on cash assistance is 24
months.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
(SNAP), formerly known as Food Stamps, provides
assistance to low-income households to purchase
food. This August, there were 1,009,668 food stamp
recipients in the state, representing a 1.0% increase
over July caseloads. Compared to the same month
last year, food stamp participation declined by
(4.6)%.
The Arizona Department of Corrections (ADC)
reported an inmate population of 42,798 on
September 30, 2015. This was a 0.8% increase from
August 2015, and increased 1.7% over last
September.

6

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2015
Table 5

MONTHLY INDICATORS

Indicator
Arizona
Employment
- Regular Unemployment Rate
- Total Unemployment Rate (discouraged/underemployed)
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Unemployment Insurance Recipients
- Non-Farm Employment - Total
Manufacturing
Construction
- Average Weekly Hours, Private Sector
- Average Hourly Earnings, Private Sector
Sales
- Retail Taxable Sales
Motor Vehicles/Misc. Auto
Furniture/Home Furnishings
Building Material/Lawn & Garden
Building
- Residential Building Permits (12-month avg)
Single-family
Multi-family
- Maricopa County/Other, Home Sales (ARMLS)
Single-Family (Pending Sales)
- Maricopa County/Other, Median Home Price (ARMLS)
Single-Family (Pending Sales)
- Phoenix S&P/C Home Price Index (2000 = 100)
- Maricopa Pending Foreclosures
- Greater Phoenix Total Housing Inventory, (ARMLS)
Tourism
- Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers
- National Park Visitors
- State Park Visitors
- Revenue Per Available Hotel Room
General Measures
- Arizona Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Arizona Coincident Index (July 1992 = 100)
- Arizona Leading Index -- 6 month projected growth
- Arizona Personal Income
- Arizona Population
- State Debt Rating
Standards & Poor’s/Moody’s
Outlook
Agency Measures
- AHCCCS Recipients
Acute Care Traditional
Prop 204 Childless Adults
Other Prop 204
Adult Expansion
Kids Care I
Long-Term Care – Elderly & DD
Emergency Services
- Department of Child Safety (DCS)
Annual Reports of Child Maltreatment (12-month total)
DCS Out-of-Home Children
Filled Caseworkers (1406 Budgeted)
- ADC Inmate Growth
- Department of Economic Security
- TANF Recipients
- SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients
- Judiciary Probation Caseload
Non-Maricopa
Maricopa County
United States
- Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2009 dollars, SAAR)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Leading Indicators Index (2010 = 100)
- Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100)
- Personal Consumption Price Index (2009 = 100)

Time Period

Current Value

Change From
Prior Period

Change From
Prior Year

September
2nd Q 2015
August
July
September
September
September
August
August

6.3%
13.8%
17,420
29,157
2.63 million
155,200
131,400
35.1
$23.38

0.0%
(0.5)%
(24.3)%
(23.0)%
1.1%
(1.1)%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%

(0.3)%
(2.1)%
(5.8)%
(32.2)%
2.3%
(0.7)%
6.1%
2.3%
2.7%

July
July
July

$945.5 million
$328.6 million
$393.6 million

(6.6)%
1.3%
5.5%

11.1%
(1.8)%
26.5%

July
July

20,785
9,386

3.5%
4.0%

19.7%
2.8%

September

5,287

(2.1)%

10.6%

September

$224,900

0.4%

12.5%

July
August
August

154.03
4,634
22,432

0.7%
(4.5)%
(1.9)%

4.6%
(25.4)%
(17.1)%

August
July
August
August

3.67 million
1,548,311
194,241
$51.34

(6.2)%
(0.6)%
(24.0)%
(5.3)%

6.0%
(13.6)%
10.0%
5.5%

3rd Q 2015
August
August
nd
2 Q 2015
July 2014

84.3
217.85
1.0%
$264.7 billion
6.73 million

6.6%
0.0%
(0.6)%
4.4%
N/A

17.7%
3.0%
(2.3)%
4.2%
1.5%

May ‘15

AA / Aa2
Stable

N/A
N/A

N/A
N/A

October 1st

1,772,342
1,042,671
298,765
184,190
73,265
882
57,513
115,056

0.8%
(4.9)%
1.9%
47.6%
2.5%
(4.9)%
0.4%
1.5%

10.7%
5.6%
12.1%
9.2%
144.1%
(54.7)%
2.6%
28.0%

June 2015
June
July
September

51,073
18,059
1,286
42,798

0.6%
1.2%
23
0.8%

12.6%
9.1%
5
1.7%

August
August

24,301
1,009,668

2.3%
1.0%

(20.0)%
(4.6)%

May
May

18,296
26,833

127
(42)

797
1,821

$16.3 trillion

3.9%

2.7%

103.0
123.7
237.9
109.8

1.7%
0.1%
(0.1)%
0.0%

15.7%
4.4%
0.2%
0.3%

May ‘15

2nd Q, 2015
(3rd Estimate)
September
August
August
August

7

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2015

JLBC Meeting
At its September 24, 2015 meeting, the Joint Legislative
Budget Committee considered the following issues:
Department of Child Safety – Review of FY 2016 ICAC
Expenditure Plan – The Committee gave a favorable
review of the FY 2016 $350,000 expenditure plan for
Internet Crimes Against Children (ICAC) with a provision
that the Arizona Internet Crimes Against Children Task
Force via DCS report any funding reallocations above
$50,000.
Department of Child Safety – Review of Fourth Quarter
Benchmarks – The Committee accepted the DCS report
with no comment that outlined fourth quarter
benchmarks for assessing the progress of increasing the
number of FTE Positions and in reducing the number of
backlog cases.
Department of Child Safety – Review of IFS FY 2016
Expenditure Plan – The Committee gave favorable
review of the FY 2016 $8.5 million expenditure plan for
Intensive Family Services (IFS). The Committee added
provisions indicating that a favorable review expires
with federal approval or disapproval of the Title IV-E
waiver and recommended that the department release
a Request for Proposal (RFP) prior to the final approval
of the Title IV-E waiver.
Department of Corrections – Review of FY 2015 Bed
Capacity Report – The Committee gave a favorable
review of the bed capacity report detailing the bed
capacity changes in FY 2015 and the proposed
changes in FY 2016.
Arizona Department of Administration – Consider
Approval of Maximum Lodging and Per Diem
Reimbursement Rates – The Committee approved the
use of the federal lodging reimbursement rate and per
diem rate, less $10, as the state rates effective
October 1, 2015. The Committee added the following
provisions:
1)
2)

3)

Committee approval does not constitute an
endorsement of additional appropriations to cover
higher reimbursement costs;
ADOA may continue to grant waivers for
reimbursement above the state’s maximum rate but
should not delegate any waiver authority to
agencies; and
ADOA shall submit for review its written guidelines
for reviewing and approving lodging rate waivers
by November 30, 2015.

Arizona Department of Administration/Department of
Education – Review of Automation Projects Fund
Expenditure Reallocation – The Committee gave a
favorable review of a reallocation of the FY 2016
Arizona Education Learning and Accountability System
appropriation, which allows ADE to shift $400,000 from
the Program Support Office to Centralized Education
Data Services.
Arizona Department of Administration/Department of
Revenue – Review of Data Capture Contingency
Expenditure Plan – The Committee gave a favorable
review of the use of $459,000 of contingency monies
from the Automation Projects Fund to improve DOR’s
ability to analyze more tax return data electronically.
The Committee added a provision requiring DOR to
submit an expenditure plan to the Committee for review
prior to spending the project’s remaining contingency
funding of $106,800.
Attorney General – Review of Quarterly Reports on Legal
Settlements – The Committee gave a favorable review
of the AG’s allocation of legal settlements among the
various funds. In the fourth quarter of FY 2015, the AG
deposited $353,900 to the Consumer Protection –
Consumer Fraud Revolving Fund, $81,000 to the
Restitution Subaccount, and $9,400 to the Remediation
Subaccount.
JLBC Staff – Review of Agency Legal Services Charges –
The Committee gave favorable review of the fund
source reports for the AG legal services charges. The
charges total $1.8 million, the same amount as last year.
Board of Behavioral Health Services – Testimony on
Proposed Licensing Rules – The Committee accepted
the Board’s testimony on proposed licensing rules
without comment.
AHCCCS/Department of Health Services/Department of
Economic Security/Department of Child Safety – Review
of Proposed Capitation Rate Changes – The Committee
gave favorable review of AHCCCS’ proposed
capitation rate changes for the state’s Medicaid
system. In the aggregate, the proposed rates are
expected to save $(9.7) million relative to the FY 2016
General Fund budgeted amounts.
Department of Environmental Quality – Review of Safe
Drinking Water Expenditure Plan – The Committee gave
a favorable review of the FY 2016 $1.8 million
expenditure plan for the Safe Drinking Water Program.

8

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2015

JCCR Meeting
At its September 24, 2015 meeting, the Joint Committee
on Capital Review considered the following issues:
Arizona State University – Review of Sun Devil Stadium
Renovation Phase 2 – The Committee gave a favorable
review of $107.0 million in system revenue bond
issuances over the next year to fund the second phase
of a 3-part renovation of Sun Devil Stadium. The
favorable review includes the standard university
financing provisions.
Arizona Department of Corrections – Review of
Reallocation of FY 2016 Building Renewal Allocation
Plan – The Committee gave a favorable review to the
reallocation of $2.4 million in projected savings resulting
from reducing the scope of the project and postponing
the original projects in the approved FY 2016 Building
Renewal Plan. The $2.4 million will be used to meet
immediate needs, including structural repairs at ASPC –
Eyman Running Unit, gas line replacement at ASPC –
Tucson, and water line replacement at ASPC – Florence
Central Unit. The favorable review includes a provision
that requires ADC to continue to report any change in
the building renewal spending plan to the JLBC Staff.
Department of Public Safety – Review of Proposed
Microwave System Upgrades – The Committee gave a
favorable review to the DPS proposed microwave
system upgrades for $2.0 million that will establish 2 new
tower sites creating 3 new transmission paths and make
additional upgrades to 1 existing tower site that will
allow for increased bandwidth across 2 transmission
paths. The projects will allow for the completion of the
western loop of the microwave system by the end of FY
2017.

Arizona Department of Transportation – Review of FY
2016 Building Renewal Allocation Plan – The Committee
gave a favorable review to ADOT’s FY 2016 $3.4 million
Building Renewal Allocation Plan. ADOT has allocated
$3.2 million from the State Highway Fund among 72
projects. ADOT has also allocated $204,900 from the
State Aviation Fund for 13 projects. The favorable
review includes a provision requiring ADOT to report any
project reallocations above $100,000 to the JCCR.
Arizona Exposition and State Fair Board – Review of
Sewer Line and Transformer Expenditures – The
Committee gave a favorable review to the Board’s
sewer line repairs and transformer replacement with a
total cost of $155,000. After taking into account an item
reviewed at the June 2015 JCCR meeting, $620,000 of
the $1.0 million appropriated in FY 2016 to the Board for
capital improvements remains. The favorable review
includes a provision requiring a return to JCCR prior to
expending any of these funds for other projects.
Coconino Association for Vocations, Industry and
Technology – Consider Approval of Proposed JTED
Leases – The Committee approved CAVIAT’s plan to
lease a 750 square foot classroom from FredoniaMoccasin Unified School District and a 650 square foot
classroom from the Williams Unified School District in
order to establish “leased centralized JTED campus”
programs at those 2 school districts.

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
Arizona Department of Administration – Report on the
Telecommunications Program Office - Pursuant to A.R.S.
§ 41-712, the Arizona Department of Administration
(ADOA) is required to submit an annual report on the
Telecommunication Program Office (TPO), including the
current rate structure of telecommunications charges,
and payments made by all AZNet 2 participants for FY
2015 and FY 2016. AZNet 2 participants pay a variety of
fees for different purposes, including a third-party vendor
to operate and maintain the system, a separate thirdparty vendor who aggregates an agency’s bills and
manages expenses, as well as an amount paid to TPO
for their administration of the system as a whole. In FY
2015, total charges paid by all entities were $42.4 million.
In FY 2016, the estimated total charges paid by all
entities is $43.3 million.

Pursuant to A.R.S. § 41-713, ADOA is additionally
submitting their annual report on the
Telecommunication Fund, which includes the sources
and uses of received monies, for FY 2015, as well as
estimates for FY 2016. The Telecommunication Fund
primarily consists of monies paid by agencies, as well
as other AZNet 2 participants, to TPO to administer the
system as a whole. In FY 2015, the
Telecommunication Fund received $1.8 million from
AZNet 2 participants to administer the system. In FY
2016, the Telecommunication Fund is estimated to
receive $1.8 million from AZNet 2 participants to
administer the system. (Rebecca Perrera)

9

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2015

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
AHCCCS – Report on Systematic Alien Verification for
Entitlements Program - Pursuant to A.R.S. § 36-2903.03, the
Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System (AHCCCS)
provided its latest report on the collection and verification
of documentation associated with the Systematic Alien
Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) program.
AHCCCS, in conjunction with the Department of Economic
Security (DES), verified the immigration status of 83,829
individuals in FY 2015. During this period, AHCCCS and DES
referred 32 individuals (29 citizens, 3 non-citizens) for
prosecution for fraudulent schemes, prohibited acts, theft,
or forgery. AHCCCS and DES did not identify any
fraudulent documents utilizing the SAVE program during FY
2015. (Jon Stall)
Department of Child Safety – Report on CMDP Integration Pursuant to Laws 2013, Chapter 220, the Arizona Health
Care Cost Containment System (AHCCCS), the
Department of Child Safety (DCS) and the Department of
Health Services (DHS) have reported on the methods for
delivering medical, dental and behavioral health services
to foster children who qualify for the Comprehensive
Medical and Dental program (CMDP).
The agencies recommend that the state transition to an
integrated CMDP contracted network model beginning on
October 1, 2019. Under this proposal, all aspects of CMDP
would be consolidated into DCS, and DCS would contract
directly with behavioral and physical health professionals
to build its own provider network. This new proposal
contrasts with the existing CMDP delivery model where
DCS contracts for the physical health portion of CMDP and
DHS contracts for the behavioral health component.
Besides integration of CMDP into DCS, the proposed CMDP
contracted network model differs from the existing CMDP
delivery mechanism in 2 main ways. First, the proposed
contracted network model would allow DCS to contract
for specialty healthcare services, rather than be limited to
the AHCCCS registered healthcare providers and AHCCCS
fee for service rates. Second, the proposed contracted
network model would not contract with a private
managed care organization (e.g., a Regional Behavioral
Health Authority) to administer or build a provider network
for CMDP behavioral health.
Because DCS will essentially operate its own health plan
under this proposal, the report estimates the cost for DCS
to develop the required infrastructure to be in the tens of
millions of dollars. (Ben Beutler)
Arizona Community Colleges – Report on Dual Enrollment
Threshold - Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-1821.01, the Arizona
Community Colleges are required to report by October 1
of each year if dual enrollment by high school freshman
and sophomore students at a community college are in

excess of 25% of the high school students enrolled in
dual enrollment at that college.
Glendale Community College (GCC) had 852 high
school freshmen and sophomore dual enrollment
students in the 2014-2015 school year, which was 26.2%
of their total dual enrollment of 3,246. GCC states that
the increased enrollments were in specific courses that
the high schools promoted and encouraged
underclassmen high school students to take. To ensure
compliance in the future, GCC will monitor the
enrollment of freshman and sophomore high school
students on a weekly basis to ensure compliance with
the state statute. (Tom Ritland)
Department of Economic Security – Report on
Reimbursement Rates for Developmental Disabilities
Programs - Pursuant to A.R.S. § 36-2959, the Department
of Economic Security (DES) has provided its annual
study of Medicaid reimbursement rates to service
providers in the Developmental Disabilities program.
The study states that the provider rates in FY 2016 are
generally adequate and appropriate, but also notes
that there are serious rate deficiencies for some services
based on a recent rate rebase study.
The rebase study highlighted that 5 of the top 10
services by total funding, including Habilitation, Day
Treatment, Attendant Care, Respite Care, and Group
Home Room and Board, had adopted rates below 80%
of the benchmark rate. However, the report concludes
that the division’s rates are adequate and appropriate
according to federal standards that require a sufficient
number, mix, and geographic distribution of providers
and services to serve enrolled members. (Tom Ritland)
Department of Economic Security – Report on Annual
Child Care Expenditures - A.R.S. § 46-810 requires the
Department of Economic Security (DES) to provide an
annual child care report to the Committee. The FY 2015
report shows that the average number of children
served increased to 25,834, or 8.7% above FY 2014; the
number of families served increased by 9.7%. Across
categories, the number of children served in the Low
Income Working category (including those in special
circumstances) increased by 23.9%, child welfarerelated placements increased by 10.0%, the number of
Temporary Assistance for Needy Families-related
children decreased by (6.8)%, while the number of
children receiving transitional child care decreased by
(6.7)%. DES conducted 6 releases of the waiting list in FY
2015, contributing to the increase in Low Income
Working clients served.
The amount spent by DES on child care subsidies
increased to $110.3 million, or 9.3% above FY 2014. The
average monthly subsidy paid per child increased 0.5%

10

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2015

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
to $355.94. The total amount of co-payments collected
increased by 12.1% over FY 2014 to $5.7 million. (Tom
Ritland)
Department of Health Services – Annual Report on
Individuals with a Serious Mental Illness (SMI) - Pursuant
to A.R.S. § 36-3415, the Arizona Department of Health
Services (DHS) is required to report annually on
behavioral health demographics, utilization and
expenditures.
DHS states that enrollment of members with a SMI
diagnosis in Arizona’s public behavioral health system
in FY 2015 increased by 4% to 41,876. The share of the
population that resided in Maricopa County
comprised 48%, or 19,957 members, of the total SMI
population. The percentage of enrolled SMI members
eligible for Medicaid increased from 78% in the
previous year to 81% in FY 2015.
Compared to last year, FY 2015 annual per capita
expenditures increased from $8,000 to $11,100 for
Medicaid-eligible members and increased from $3,600
to $3,900 for Non-Medicaid-eligible members. DHS
attributes the discrepancy in expenditures between
the 2 groups to the benefit package available to NonMedicaid-eligible members, which is more limited than
what is used by Medicaid-eligible members. DHS
reports that the annual per capita expenditure rate
outside of Maricopa County increased from $5,000 in
FY 2014 to $6,500 in FY 2015 and the rate increased
from $9,100 to $13,300 inside Maricopa County.
According to DHS, expenditure figures in this report
only include service encounter data, meaning that
certain expenditures, such as administrative costs, are
excluded from the report. Total capitation
expenditures for behavioral health services for the SMI
population are estimated to be $19,100 annually per
capita.
The most widely used services by members during FY
2015 were case management, medical and treatment
services. Of all members, 98% used case
management services, 83% received medical services,
and 69% received treatment services. Additionally,
27% of members accessed at least once during FY
2015 hospital, in-home, or mobile crisis intervention
services that stabilize or prevent a sudden or
potentially dangerous behavioral health episode.
(Patrick Moran)
JLBC Staff – County Flexible Revenue Report - The FY
2016 Revenue Budget Reconciliation Bill (BRB) (Laws
2015, Chapter 10) as amended by Laws 2015, Chapter
323 permits counties with a population of fewer than
200,000 to meet any FY 2016 fiscal obligation from any
source of county revenue, including countywide

special taxing jurisdictions. Counties with a population
of more than 200,000 but fewer than 900,000 may use
up to $1,000,000 from any source of county revenue,
including countywide special taxing jurisdictions, to
meet any FY 2016 fiscal obligation. The FY 2016
Revenue BRB requires counties to report on their use
either of these provisions.
Of the 13 eligible counties, 7 reported using the
flexibility:
•
•
•

•
•
•
•

Apache County: $400,000 from the Juvenile Jail
Fund to the Sheriff’s Office to maintain deputies;
Cochise County: $23,000 from the Library District to
the Heavy Fleet Management Fund to hire a
mechanic;
Coconino County: $634,800 from the Jail District to
the General Fund to cover Public Safety Personnel
Retirement System costs and Adult Probation Pretrial Services;
La Paz County: $992,500 from Vehicle License Tax
disbursements to the General Fund to cover the
structural deficit;
Navajo County: $1,200,000 from 2 special taxing
districts to the General Fund for general
expenditures;
Pinal County: $1,000,000 from the Flood
Management District to the General Fund for debt
payments; and
Yuma County: $10,200 from the Library District for
the cleaning and maintenance of the South
County facility.

The following 6 eligible counties did not utilize this
provision: Gila, Graham, Greenlee, Mohave, Santa
Cruz, and Yavapai Counties. (Josh Hope)
Department of Revenue – Report on Individual Income
Tax Credits - Pursuant to a footnote in Laws 2015,
Chapter 8, the Arizona Department of Revenue is
required to report by September 30, 2015 on the
amounts of individual income tax credits used in FY
2015. The agency reports that 1,673,303 claimants used
a total $323.9 million in individual income tax credits in
FY 2015. Of the total amount used, $298.9 million
resulted from 6 credits while 31 other credits comprised
the remaining $25.0 million in usage. The number of
claims and dollar impacts of credits are listed in Table 6,
below. (Jon Stall)

11

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2015

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
Table 6

Universities – Report on University Research
Infrastructure Income - Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-1670,
Arizona State University (ASU), Northern Arizona
University (NAU), and the University of Arizona (UA) are
required to submit an annual report on the amount of
the previous year’s income from licensure and royalty
payments and the sale or transfer of intellectual
property developed by the university, and to deposit a
portion of that income into the state General Fund.
ASU, NAU and UA made no deposits in FY 2015, as they
report no net income from licensure and royalty
payments, or the sale or transfer of intellectual
property, in FY 2015. The universities define this income
as being their income net of expenses instead of gross
income.

FY 2015 Individual Income Tax Credits
($ in millions)

Credits:
Income Taxes Paid to
Other States
School Tuition
Organizations (STO-1)
Public School
Extracurriculars
Prop 301 Sales Tax Credit
Contributions to Charities
School Tuition
Organizations (STO -2)
Other Credits
Total Value of Credits

# of
Claims
53,608

Annual
Cost
$113.9

82,550

57.1

147,457

40.1

635,989

32.4

109,658

29.6

35,811

25.8

608,230

25.0

1,673,303

$323.9

In terms of FY 2015 gross royalty revenues, ASU reported
$1.1 million of licensing and royalty revenues, NAU
reported $74,900 of licensing and royalty revenues and
UA reported $3.9 million of licensure, royalty and
assignment revenues. (Matt Gress)

September Spending
September 2015 General Fund spending of $725.8 million
was $(53.4) million less than September 2014. Year to
date, spending is $3.93 billion, or $(16.1) million below
last year. (See Tables 7 & 8).
•

Year to date, the Department of Education has spent
$49.3 million more than the prior year.

•

Due to technical reporting issues with the newly
created Department of Child Safety (DCS) in FY 2015,

the figures reported below for DCS and the
Department of Economic Security do not
accurately reflect changes in spending levels from
the prior year.
•

During FY 2016, Universities spending has declined
by $(30.0) million. This is related to changes
enacted in the FY 2016 budget, which contained a
$(99.0) million spending reduction for the
Universities system.

Table 7
General Fund Spending ($ in Millions)
Change From

YTD Change

Sept 15

Sept 14

Year-to-Date

from FY 15

AHCCCS

40.1

(97.7)

306.7

(28.2)

Corrections

111.2

30.6

291.4

50.3

Child Safety

41.7

41.7

89.0

89.0
(130.0)

Agency

5.8

(3.2)

359.0

Education

Economic Security

228.8

(3.6)

1,672.1

49.3

Health Serv ices

21.6

6.6

462.0

(13.7)

Public Safety

2.1

(2.0)

27.9

1.3

School Facilities Board

0.2

(0.1)

161.5

10.4
(30.0)

Univ ersities

236.2

(19.7)

316.3

Leaseback Debt Serv ice

0.0

0.0

84.1

(0.0)

Other

38.1

(6.0)

156.1

(14.5)

Total

725.8

(53.4)

3,926.1

(16.1)

12

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2015

Table 8

General Fund Spending
($ in Thousands)
Agency
Dept. of Admin./Automation Projects Fund
ADOA – Sale/Leaseback Debt Service
Office of Administrative Hearings
Commission of African-American Affairs
Department of Agriculture
AHCCCS
Attorney General
State Board of Charter Schools
Department of Child Safety
AZ Commerce Authority
Community Colleges
Corporation Commission
Department of Corrections
County Funding
AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind
Department of Economic Security
State Board of Education
Department of Education
DEMA
DEQ – WQARF
Office of Equal Opportunity
State Board of Equalization
Board of Executive Clemency
Department of Financial Institutions
Department of Fire, Bldg and Life Safety
State Forester
Department of Gaming
Arizona Geological Survey
Governor/OSPB
Department of Health Services
Arizona Historical Society
Prescott Historical Society of AZ
Independent Redistricting Comm.
Commission of Indian Affairs
Department of Insurance
Judiciary
Supreme/Superior Court
Court of Appeals
Department of Juvenile Corrections

Sept 15
989.3
113.0
18.7
979.8
40,145.0
2,154.5
106.0
41,730.4
2,625.0
185.8
71.7
111,245.7
2,785.9
5,831.2
109.4
228,776.0
511.9
13.7
45.5
94.7
452.7
161.1
565.7
85.2
1,046.5
21,557.1
234.4
82.8
84.2
1.5
516.0

Change from
Sept 14
(2,183.7)
42.3
18.7
28.4
(97,668.2)
724.0
(46.1)
41,730.4
(494.0)
27.4
30,593.7
764.4
(3,211.7)
109.4
(3,556.4)
134.9
(7,000.0)
(3.5)
3.7
38.2
235.9
(61.4)
282.1
39.8
(201.3)
6,625.9
40.0
30.2
29.4
(3.0)
145.4

Year-to-Date
3,185.7
84,114.6
243.8
32.2
2,204.2
306,670.6
5,603.9
262.5
89,002.6
7,875.0
12,492.0
163.5
291,445.6
7,523.5
358,956.6
326.6
1,672,133.1
965.1
33.0
203.9
227.6
879.1
609.9
1,566.6
1,794.4
198.5
2,603.7
461,961.7
786.9
254.1
191.0
4.1
1,296.1

YTD Change
from FY 15
(6,303.7)
(7.1)
3.6
32.2
(31.5)
(28,223.8)
190.5
5.6
89,002.6
(4,709.3)
29.0
50,343.8
1,349.9
(129,961.0)
326.6
49,308.8
(546.1)
(7,000.0)
(10.5)
17.4
(43.7)
97.1
(16.0)
659.6
1,794.4
52.9
36.6
(13,655.4)
(290.4)
69.6
2.9
(11.3)
96.5

2,877.4
1,527.7
2,294.2

1,069.7
118.5
(904.7)

21,253.3
3,622.0
8,453.1

(2,276.0)
171.8
(1,233.1)

13

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2015

Table 8 (Continued)

Agency
State Land Department
Legislature
Auditor General
House of Representatives
Joint Legislative Budget Comm.
Legislative Council
Senate
Mine Inspector
Nav. Streams & Adjudication
Occupational Safety and Health Review
Arizona State Parks Board
Phoenix Convention Center
Pioneers’ Home
Comm. for Postsecondary Ed.
Department of Public Safety
Public Safety Personnel Retirement System
Arizona Department of Racing
Radiation Regulatory Agency
Real Estate Department
Department of Revenue
Rio Nuevo Distribution
School Facilities Board
Secretary of State
Tax Appeals Board
Office of Tourism
Department of Transportation
Universities
Board of Regents
Arizona State University
Northern Arizona University
University of Arizona
Department of Veteran Services
Department of Water Resources
Water Infrastructure Finance Authority
Department of Weights & Measures
Other - JP Salaries Distribution
Other
Total

Sept 15
1,042.4

Change from
Sept 14
137.8

Year-to-Date
2,498.2

YTD Change
from FY 15
(722.6)

2,145.8
1,617.2
294.5
534.7
868.7
107.1
11.9
0.7
610.4
2,070.9
64.0
250.7
6,898.2
161.1
1,149.5
16.9
2.3
-

640.6
654.1
86.4
(129.9)
262.3
47.4
2.5
0.7
(5.5)
610.4
(2,024.1)
5.1
(142.3)
1,471.4
(54.7)
(1,957.8)
(33.9)
(1,297.7)
-

5,134.1
3,527.3
629.7
1,727.7
2,123.0
260.6
28.4
1.6
272.8
20,449.0
698.4
27,903.7
6,000.0
436.1
605.3
16,981.8
161,535.9
2,622.5
85.9
2,488.6
-

718.7
738.0
87.0
(419.2)
272.0
(69.8)
(27.1)
0.7
272.8
(479.5)
1,309.3
6,000.0
(1,779.5)
34.2
(152.5)
2,830.9
10,362.2
(2,062.2)
0.8
(1,997.7)
-

546.2
109,107.3
36,321.7
90,212.1
561.1
1,110.1
117.1
2.8
725,845.4

(7,513.9)
(5,352.2)
(1,488.6)
(5,384.1)
263.7
316.4
33.9
(55.0)
(53,408.4)

6,686.7
140,458.1
47,975.5
121,170.6
1,364.2
2,704.6
290.8
274.4
3,926,075.9

(2,981.8)
(14,794.9)
(4,465.9)
(7,758.4)
246.7
294.1
(1,000.0)
48.8
92.7
(4.0)
(16,133.6)

JLBC
Jul 14

3

JLBC
Jul 13
Jul 14
Jul 15

Jan 15

30,000

Jan 14

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
Jul 12

Jan 12

Jul 12

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

2,200

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jan 10

Jul 09

Jan 09

Jul 08

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jan 07

Jul 06

Jan 06

Jul 05

Jan 05

Jul 04

Jan 04

Jul 03

Jan 03

Jul 02

Jan 02

Jul 01

Jan 01

Thousands of Jobs
2,300

Jan 13

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jan 10

Jul 09

Jan 09

Jul 08

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jan 07

Jul 06

Jan 06

Jul 05

Jan 05

Jul 04

Jan 04

Jul 03

Jan 03

Jul 02

Jan 02

Jul 01

Jan 01

Year Over Year Growth (%)

2,400

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jan 10

Jul 09

Jan 09

Jul 08

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jan 07

2.7% Y/Y Growth
(August 2015)

Jul 06

$19

Jan 06

$20

Jul 05

$23.38 / Hour
(August 2015)

Jan 05

$23

Jul 04

$25

Jan 04

Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector

Jul 03

$22

Total Monthly Claims for UI Benefits

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

JLBC

Jan 03

Jan 11
July 11

1

Jul 02

Jan 10
July 10

2……Total Non-Farm Employment
3……Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector
4……Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
5……State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
6……State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting
Category
7……Residential Building Permits
8……Economic Activity Index

Jan 02

Jan 09
July 09

October 2015
Appendix A

Jul 01

Jan 01

Jul-15

Jan-15

Jan 08
July 08

$21

Jan 14

12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

July 11

Jan 11

July 10

Jan 07
July 07

$ / Hour

Page:

Jan 10

July 09

Jan 09

July 08

Jan 08

July 07

Jan 07

Year Over Year Growth (%)

Tracking Arizona’s Recovery

Total Non-Farm Employment

2,800

2,700

2,600

2,500

$22.73 / Hour
(Octoberjobs
2014)
2,633,200
(September 2015)

2,100

2.3% Y/Y Growth
(September 2015)

2

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

$24

45,000

40,000

35,000

17,420 Claims
(August 2015)

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

Not seasonally adjusted

4

State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category

State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting Category
$100

$225
$75

$ in Millions

$175

$150

$25

$176.4 million
(September 2015)

5

* January 2014 estimate adjusted downward by $30 million to reflect onetime category shift.

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

Jul 15

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jan 12

Jan 11

July 11

Jan 10

July 10

Jan 09

July 09

Jan 08

July 08

Jan 07

Jul 15

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jan 11

July 11

Jan 10

July 10

Jan 09

July 09

Jan 08

Economic Activity Index
240

100,000

217.9 Index Value
(August 2015)

230

90,000

220

80,000

Coincident Index Value

70,000
60,000

Single Family Unit- 20,785 Permits
Multi-Family Unit - 9,386 Permits
(August 2015)

50,000
40,000
30,000

210
200
190
180
170
160

20,000

150

10,000

7

JLBC

Source: Coincident Index – Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Combines four state-level indicators
(employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary
disbursements) to summarize current economic conditions.

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jul 09

Jan 10

Jul 08

Jan 09

Jan 08

Jul 07

Jul 06

Jan 07

Jan 06

Jul 05

Jan 05

Jul 04

Jul 03

Jan 04

Jan 03

Jul 02

Jul 15

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jan 12

Jul 11

Jan 11

Jul 10

Jul 09

Jan 10

Jul 08

Jan 09

Jul 07

Jan 08

Jul 06

Jan 07

Jul 05

Jul 04

Jan 05

Jul 03

Jan 04

Jan 03

Jul 02

Jan 02

Jul 01

Jan 01

Jan 06

12-Month Moving Sum

Jan 02

Jan 01

140

0

Jul 01

Building Permits

6

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

Residential Building Permits

JLBC

July 08

JLBC

July 07

(21.1)% Y/Y Growth
(September 2015)
July 07

Year Over Year Growth (%)

Jul 15

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

Jan 13

Jul 12

Jan 12

Jan 11

July 11

Jan 10

July 10

Jan 09

July 09

Jan 08

July 08

* Jan 14

JLBC

July 07

Jan 07

8.3% Y/Y Growth
(September 2015)

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

July 06

$0

Jul 15

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 13

* Jan 14

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jan 12

Jan 11

July 11

Jan 10

July 10

Jan 09

July 09

Jan 08

July 08

Jan 07

July 06

20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
July 06

Year Over Year Growth (%)

July 07

$100

Jan 07

$125

$33.9 million
(September 2015)

$50

July 06

$ in Millions

$200

8