JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights

August 2014

Summary
1716 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Phone:
(602) 926-5491
Fax:
(602) 926-5416

July continued the recent trend of disappointing
General Fund revenue results. With revenues
$(34.5) million below forecast, July marked the
4th consecutive month of failing to meet the
budget projection.
On a brighter note, additional collections slightly
improved the FY 2014 year-end numbers. While
these new FY 2014 estimates have a
corresponding positive effect on future years,
the state still faces significant shortfalls of $(282)
million in the current fiscal year and $(765)
million in FY 2016.

www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

“July marked
the 4th
consecutive
month of
failing to meet
the budget
projection.”

July General Fund revenue collections totaled
$662.2 million. Base revenues, which exclude
one-time adjustments, were (0.7)% below July
2013.
The July revenue decline was due almost
entirely to Corporate Income Tax collections,
which posted a significant decline from the
previous year. This tax category continues to
negatively affect revenue growth, as the
double digit decline posted in July continues a
trend of 4 consecutive months where Corporate
Income Tax collections fell below the prior year.
In comparison to revenue of $662.2 million, July
2014 spending was $2.44 billion which represents
an increase of $210.2 million from the prior year.
The state incurs significant expenses during the
month of July as it makes nearly $1.0 billion of
deferred payments to school districts.
The state’s fiscal health can also be measured
by the operating fund balance. The state pays
its bills out of the operating fund balance, which
consists of the General Fund and certain

dedicated funds. The operating balance as of
mid-August 2014 is $1.0 billion. In addition, the
state’s Budget Stabilization Fund has a balance
of $455.6 million.
FY 2014 Ending Balance Update
Since the publication of the July Monthly Fiscal
Highlights, the state has continued its book
closing process. The updated FY 2014 results are
better than previously reported – revenue
collections were $28 million greater and
expenditures were $(19) million lower than
originally reported – a net improvement of $47
million. Even with these improvements, the state
still has a large shortfall.
 The enacted budget had assumed an FY
2014 ending balance of $596 million. The June
data reported in the July Monthly Fiscal
Highlights translated into an expected FY 2014
ending balance of $530 million. The most
recent data would result in an FY 2014 ending
balance of $577 million.
 The July Monthly Fiscal Highlights had
reported an FY 2015 projected shortfall of
$(366) million. The revised estimates would
leave the state with an FY 2015 shortfall of
$(282) million.
 Given the most recent data, the FY 2016
shortfall is projected to be $(765) million.
 The FY 2015 and FY 2016 estimates include the
$320 million annual cost relating to the K-12
litigation ruling, which requires a “reset” of the
per pupil amount prospectively to adjust for
foregone inflation in prior years. It does not
include “back payments” for K-12 inflation
payments which did not occur in prior years.
(See the July Monthly Fiscal Highlights for
more information).

Table of Contents

This report has been
prepared for the Arizona
Legislature by the Joint
Legislative Budget
Committee Staff on
August 20, 2014.

Summary

 ADOA – Public Safety Communications ........ 9

 FY 2014 Ending Balance Update ......................1

 ADOA – Private Leases Report ......................... 9

 Child Safety Staff Report ....................................2

 DCS – Foster Care Medicaid Report ............... 9

July Revenues ..........................................................3

 Comm. Colleges – Annual Report ................... 9

Monthly Indicators ..................................................5

 DHS – Medical/Dental Program ..................... 10

Summary of Recent Agency Reports

 Public Programs Eligibility Report ................... 10

 AHCCCS – Hospital Assessment........................8

 DPS – GIITEM Fund Report ............................... 10

 AHCCCS – Health Insurance Exchange ........8

July Spending........................................................ 11

 ADOA – Health Insurance Trust Fund ...............8

Tracking Arizona’s Recovery ............. Appendix A

2

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – AUGUST 2014

Summary (Continued)
In terms of future updates, the General Accounting
Office will issue its first report on the estimated FY 2014
ending balance in mid-September. Following that,
future year budget projections will be updated at the
upcoming Finance Advisory Committee (FAC) meeting,
which is scheduled for October 3rd.
Child Safety Staff Report
Pursuant to statute, the Department of Child Safety
(DCS) has submitted the July report on its progress in
hiring child safety staff.
Direct Line Child Safety Staff - The Legislature authorized
DCS to hire 212 additional direct line child safety staff,
consisting of 126 FTE Positions from a FY 2014
supplemental and 86 FTE Positions as part of the
agency’s FY 2015 appropriation. Since January, the
number of direct line child safety staff (caseworkers,
caseworkers in training, and hotline staff) has increased
by 119 FTE Positions. The 119 newly filled FTE Positions are
comprised of 7 case-carrying staff, 7 hotline staff, and
105 staff in training.

Non-Direct Line Child Safety Staff - The Legislature
also authorized DCS to hire 66 additional non-direct
line child safety staff in FY 2014 and 174 additional
non-direct line child safety staff in FY 2015, totaling to
240 additional staff. Since January, non-direct line
child safety staff has grown by 84 to 1,145. In July,
staffing increased by 36 FTE Positions.
Backlog of Non-Active Cases - One of the main
purposes of the Special Session was to reduce the
non-active case backlog. These cases have had no
documentation entered into the DCS computer
system for 60 days or more. The Special Session
legislation requires DCS to report on the disposition of
the backlog as of June 2, 2014.
At the June JLBC meeting, DCS reported that as of
June 2, 2014 there were 13,024 backlog cases. As of
July 31, 2014, there were 10,573 total backlog cases.
The 10,573 figure includes backlog cases added
post-June 2, so it does not specifically address the
disposition of the 13,024 June 2 backlog cases.

Of its 1,406 authorized caseworker positions, DCS filled
1,309 in July, or 93%. (Filled caseworkers also appears as
an economic indicator in Table 6.)

T able 1

Change in the Department of Child Safety
Staff since January 2014
Direct Line Staff
Caseworkers
Hotline Staff 1/
Staff in Training

January
983
70

137
Subtotal - Direct Line
1,190
Non-Direct Line Staff
Asst. Program Managers
36
Unit Superv isors
168
Case Aides
211
OCWI
33
Other Non-Direct Line Staff
613
Subtotal - Non-Direct Line 1,061
Grand Total
2,251

June
982
76

July
990
77

Change
since January
7
7

225

242

105

1,283

1,309

119

34
193
232
36
614
1,109
2,392

36
203
243
38
625 2
1,145
2,454

1/ Excludes 20 temporary staff.
2/ There are an estimated 180 unit secretaries included in this figure.

0
35
32
5
12
84
203

3

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – AUGUST 2014

July Revenues
Table 2

General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions)

July
Year-to-Date

FY 2015
Collections
$ 662.2
$ 662.2

Sales Tax collections of $338.9 million were (0.1)% below
July of last year and $(19.7) million below the forecast for
the month.
July’s sales tax revenue decline was the first since June
2013. Year over year, collections have only decreased
twice over the last 32 months. Table 3 below includes the
major categories of the state’s sales tax, which together
account for approximately 90% of total collections. As
indicated in Table 3, the weakness among the major sales
tax categories was broad based with the exception for
restaurant and bar sales, which increased by 5.3% in July.
Retail sales, which comprise almost 50% of total
collections, increased by 1.1% in July, which was the
weakest performance since June 2012. Starting in the
second quarter of 2014, collections from contracting
activity have steadily declined. This trend was further
reinforced in July when collections from contracting
activity fell by (1.3)%.
Table 3
Sales Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year
Retail
Contracting
Use
Restaurant & Bar
Utilities

July
1.1%
(1.3)%
(10.2)%
5.3%
0.8%

YTD
1.1%
(1.3)%
(10.2)%
5.3%
0.8%

Individual Income Tax net revenues were $308.0 million in
July, which was $1.4 million above the prior year.
Collections were $(1.1) million below the forecast for the
month.
As indicated in Table 4, withholding decreased by (1.0)%
for the month. The decrease in collections is likely a timing
issue related to the number of days in a month that the
Department of Revenue processes withholding collections.
This timing issue may also be the primary driver of low
overall individual income tax collections for the month.
The July withholding collections are $(0.8) million below
the forecast.
July estimated and final payments of $21.4 million were
12.2% above last year, and were $1.5 million above the
forecast.

Difference From
Budget Forecast
$ (34.5)
$ (34.5)

Difference
From FY 2014
$ (93.0)
$ (93.0)

July Individual Income Tax refunds totaled $(17.0) million –
this compares to $(19.0) million in July 2013 and a
forecasted amount of $(18.8) million.
Table 4
Individual Income Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year
Withholding
Estimated +
Final Payments
Refunds

July
(1.0)%

YTD
(1.0)%

12.2%
(10.7)%

12.2%
(10.7)%

Corporate Income Tax net collections were $12.5 million
in July, which was $(12.6) million less than July of the prior
year. This amount represents a decline of (50.0)% from
July 2013. Collections for the month were $(13.1) million
below the forecast. This decline continues an on-going
trend within Corporate Income Tax collections, however,
there is insufficient timely data to gauge any potential
reasons for the decline.
Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) collections of $106.0
million in July were up $1.2 million, or 1.1% compared to
July of last year. July collections were $(0.9) million below
forecast.

4
Table 5

General Fund Revenue:
Change from Previous Year and January Forecast
July 2014
Current Month

FY 2015 YTD (One Months)

Change From
Actual

July 2013

July 2014

Amount

Change from
January Forecast

Percent

Amount

Actual

Percent

July 2013

July 2014

Amount

January Forecast
Percent

Amount

Percent

Taxes
Sales and Use
Income - Individual
- Corporate
Property
Luxury - Tobacco
- Liquor
Insurance Premium
Other Taxes
Sub-Total Taxes

$338,895,000
307,979,480
12,528,493
175,084
1,710,000

($323,789)
1,394,619
(12,553,015)
7,220
(149,472)

(0.1) %
0.5
(50.0)
4.3

($19,659,260)

(5.5) %

$338,895,000

(1,136,300)

(0.4)

307,979,480

(13,149,662)

(51.2)

12,528,493

75,084

75.1

175,084

(8.0)

0

0.0

1,710,000

($323,789)
1,394,619
(12,553,015)
7,220
(149,472)

(0.1) %
0.5
(50.0)
4.3

($19,659,260)

(5.5) %

(1,136,300)

(0.4)

(13,149,662)

(51.2)

75,084

75.1

(8.0)

0

0.0

3,670,000

15

0.0

0

0.0

3,670,000

15

0.0

0

0.0

41,695,140

5,090,533

13.9

510,295

1.2

41,695,140

5,090,533

13.9

510,295

1.2

55,640

4,036

7.8

(79,360)

55,640

4,036

7.8

(79,360)

$706,708,837

($6,529,853)

(0.9) %

($33,439,203)

(58.8)
(4.5) %

$706,708,837

($6,529,853)

(0.9) %

($33,439,203)

(58.8)
(4.5) %

Other Revenue
Lottery
License, Fees and Permits
Interest
Sales and Services
Other Miscellaneous
Disproportionate Share
Transfers and Reimbursements
Sub-Total Other Revenue
TOTAL BASE REVENUE

0
2,293,106
2,327
610,902

0
(76,189)
1,299
(224,397)

3,023,241

2,288,487

0

0

309,047
$6,238,623
$712,947,460

(345,447)

-(3.2)
126.4
(26.9)
311.5
-(52.8)

0
(206,894)
2,327
(389,098)
2,023,241
0
(2,440,953)

--

0

(8.3)

2,293,106

--

2,327

(38.9)

610,902

202.3

0
(76,189)
1,299
(224,397)

3,023,241

2,288,487

--

0

0

(88.8)

309,047

$1,643,753

35.8 %

($1,011,377)

(14.0) %

$6,238,623

($4,886,100)

(0.7) %

($34,450,580)

(4.6) %

$712,947,460

(345,447)

-(3.2)
126.4
(26.9)
311.5
-(52.8)

0
(206,894)
2,327
(389,098)
2,023,241
0
(2,440,953)

-(8.3)
-(38.9)
202.3
-(88.8)

$1,643,753

35.8 %

($1,011,377)

(14.0) %

($4,886,100)

(0.7) %

($34,450,580)

(4.6) %

Other Adjustments
Urban Revenue Sharing

(50,744,644)

(3,994,544)

8.5

(2)

0.0

(50,744,644)

(3,994,544)

8.5

(2)

0.0

One-Time Transfers

0

(81,541,148) (100.0)

0

--

0

(81,541,148) (100.0)

0

--

Sales Tax - 1¢ Increase

0

(2,611,367) (100.0)

0

--

0

(2,611,367) (100.0)

0

--

Sub-Total Other Adjustments
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE

(50,744,644)
$662,202,816

(88,147,059)

-- %

(2)

0.0 %

(50,744,644)

($93,033,159)

(12.3) %

($34,450,582)

(4.9) %

$662,202,816

1.1 %

($942,147)

(0.9) %

$105,952,748

(88,147,059)

-- %

(2)

0.0 %

($93,033,159)

(12.3) %

($34,450,582)

(4.9) %

1.1 %

($942,147)

(0.9) %

Non-General Funds
Highway User Revenue Fund

$105,952,748

$1,153,831

$1,153,831

5

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – AUGUST 2014

Monthly Indicators
NATIONAL
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau
of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.0% in
the second quarter of 2014. This represents a strong
turnaround from a (2.1)% decrease during the first
quarter of the year. The growth was primarily due to
increases in inventory investment, exports, consumption,
nonresidential fixed investment, state and local
government spending, and residential fixed investment.
Some of the large increase in the second quarter likely
represents a rebound following a harsh winter and other
temporary issues in the first quarter.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence
Index jumped 5.2% in July and 12.2% above a year
earlier. The index now stands at 90.9, the highest
reading since it reached 90.6 in December 2007 (also,
the officially recognized beginning of the Great
Recession). Recent gains were the result of widespread
improvement in optimism about current and future
economic conditions.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Economic Index
increased by 0.3% in June and 6.3% since June 2013. This
month marked the fifth consecutive monthly increase in
the index. Of the index’s 10 components, 6 improved or
remained the same while 4 decreased. Improvements
in financial market components led the increase, more
than making up for another negative monthly
contribution from building permits. Recent building
permit decreases have been concentrated in multifamily units.
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau
of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Personal Consumption
Expenditure Price Index (PCEPI) rose 0.2% in June and
1.6% above June 2013 levels. The year-over-year growth
rate slipped from 1.8% in May, but has still risen sharply
from its rate of 0.8% in February. Purchases of durable
goods lead the growth, increasing 0.4% during the
month. Inflation as tracked by the PCEPI is the Federal
Reserve Bank’s preferred inflation measure for
determining the pace at which monetary stimulus to the
economy is reduced. The Bank generally aims to
maintain annual inflation of 2% over the medium term.
Since the start of 2014, the Bank has reduced its monthly
purchases of bonds, from $85 billion to $25 billion. The
Fed continues to issue short-term loans at nearly 0%
interest rates.
Consumer prices, as measured by the U.S. Consumer
Price Index (CPI), increased 0.1% in July and 2.0% above
July 2013 levels. Prices increased in shelter and food, but

were partially offset by decreases in energy prices. The
decrease in the energy sub-index were spread
throughout all major categories.
ARIZONA
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s coincident
index gauges current economic activity in each state.
The index combines 4 indicators: employment, average
hours worked in manufacturing, unemployment rate,
and inflation-adjusted wages.
Arizona’s coincident index increased by 0.2% compared
to the prior month. Since June 2013, the Arizona index
has increased by only 1.8%. Over the same time period,
the U.S. coincident index which measures economic
growth of the entire country increased by 3.2%. See
Appendix A – Tracking Arizona’s Recovery for additional
historical information.
Housing
The total housing inventory in the Greater Phoenix area
is 34.3% larger than July of last year, suggesting a slower
market. This is also shown by homes being listed longer
before selling. In July 2013, homes were on the market
an average of 64 days. In July 2014, homes were on the
market an average of 86 days.
In the Metropolitan Phoenix area, the median price of
a single family home increased slightly to $211,000 in
June. The price is 11.1% higher than June of last year.
For the country as a whole, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City
Composite index was 9.3% higher than last year. In
previous months, the metro-Phoenix rate of home price
increase was considerably higher than the national
average.
The housing construction recovery continues to be
slow. The 12-month rolling sum of single-family building
permits of 17,651 is only 0.8% larger than last year.
Arizona’s single-family sector is growing more slowly
than the rest of the country. The comparable singlefamily permit growth rate for the entire U.S. is 6.1%
above last year. See Appendix A – Tracking Arizona’s
Recovery for historical information.
On the other hand, the 12-month rolling sum of multifamily building permits has increased significantly since
last year. The 8,498 multi-family building permits is
32.9% above 2013. Arizona’s rate of increase is greater
than the comparable multi-family permit growth for the
U.S. as a whole which is 11.4% above 2013.

6

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – AUGUST 2014

Monthly Indicators (Continued)
Employment

State Agency Data

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases estimates
quarterly for a broader measure of labor underutilization
called the total unemployment rate. Besides the “regularly”
unemployed, the measure also includes persons who are
available to work but stopped looking for a job
(“discouraged workers”), and persons who had to settle for
part-time employment (“underemployed workers”). The
Arizona rate stood at 15.9% for the second quarter of 2014,
which is down (0.2)% from the prior quarter but up 0.2%
from the prior year.

At the beginning of August, the total AHCCCS caseload
was 1.6 million members. Since the federal health care
expansion in January, the overall AHCCCS population
has grown by 294,397 members. The enacted budget
assumed the AHCCCS population would grow by 202,520
member through August 2014.

The state’s regular unemployment rate increased from 6.9%
in June to 7.0% in July. This marked the second consecutive
month with 0.1% increase of the jobless rate. Compared to
the same month in the prior year, however, the state’s
unemployment rate is down by (1.1)%. The U.S.
unemployment rate inched up in July as well, going from
6.1% to 6.2%.
According to the latest employment report released by
the Department of Administration, the state shed (10,400)
Nonfarm jobs in July compared to the prior month. Job
losses are typical in July when schools are in recess. The
net job loss this year, however, was significantly smaller
than average loss of (26,400) jobs for July in the prior 10
years. The largest month-over-month job gains came
from the following service-providing industries: trade,
transportation and utilities (+2,600), professional and
business services (+1,500), and education and health
services (+1,100).

The Proposition 204 childless adult category accounts for
much of this growth above forecast. Since January,
childless adults have been again eligible for coverage. In
August the number of childless adults increased by
13,310, or 5.7% above July. Since December, the childless
adult population has increased by 181,018 to reach a
level of 248,788. This is compared to a budgeted level of
163,108. The state share of the Proposition 204 cost is paid
through a hospital assessment and not the General Fund.
The state also opted to expand adult Medicaid coverage
to 133% of FPL. The 100% - 133% enrollment increased by
2,721 in July and now totals 27,281 individuals enrolled
since January 2014 (versus a budgeted caseload of
32,321). The federal government is currently paying 100%
of this cost.
The traditional acute care AHCCCS population of lower
income children and their parents grew by 16,607 in
August to a level of 970,897 (versus a budgeted caseload
of 969,384). The August level represents an increase of
1.7% since last month and 9.2% since last year.

Compared to the same month in the prior year, the state
added a net total of 59,400 nonfarm jobs in July, the
largest year-over-year gain since December 2012. July’s
net increase of 2.4% marked the first time the state’s
employment growth rate exceeded 2% since January of
this year.

In the last 12 months, there were 44,820 reports of child
maltreatment, as reported by the Department of Child
Safety. This level increased by 1.7% over the prior year. For
May 2014, the department reports 16,468 children in outof-home care, an increase of 2.2% from the prior month.
Out-of-home children in May 2014 were up by 12.5%
compared to the same month in the prior year.

It is still too early, however, to know whether July’s higher
job growth is sustainable. The job gains through the first 7
months of 2014 are almost exclusively coming from the
private service-providing sectors of the Arizona economy.

For July 2014, the inmate population of the Arizona
Department of Corrections (ADC) increased to 41,926.
The inmate population increased 0.4% since June 2014.
Since July 2013, the inmate population increased 3.2%.

Employment growth in the goods-producing industries,
which primarily consist of the manufacturing and
construction sectors, is essentially flat for the comparable
period. Moreover, year-over-year job growth in the
goods-producing sectors has declined for 7 consecutive
months. It is difficult to envision a return to a sustained
growth rate in excess of 2% without the job losses in
manufacturing and construction over the last few months
being reversed.
In July, the Average Weekly Hours worked by individuals in
Arizona’s private sector was 34.2 hours. This workload is
(0.9)% below that seen during July 2013. The Average
Hourly Earnings received by these private sector workers
was $22.94, which is (0.3)% below the average in July 2013.

There were 28,781 TANF recipients in the state in June,
representing a (2.1)% monthly caseloads decrease from
May. The year-over-year number of TANF recipients has
declined by (19.9)%. The statutory lifetime limit on cash
assistance is 24 months. The decline in TANF enrollment
leaves program participation well below the budgeted
level of 36,263 recipients.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP),
formerly known as Food Stamps, provides assistance to
low-income households to purchase food. In June, 1.0
million people received food stamp assistance in the
state, representing a 0.4% increase over May caseloads.
Compared to June caseloads last year, the level of food
stamp participation has declined by (5.3)%.

7

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – AUGUST 2014
Table 6

MONTHLY INDICATORS

Indicator
Arizona
Employment
- Regular Unemployment Rate
- Total Unemployment Rate (discouraged/underemployed)
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Unemployment Insurance Recipients
- Non-Farm Employment - Total
Manufacturing
Construction
- Average Weekly Hours, Private Sector
- Average Hourly Earnings, Private Sector
Sales
- Retail Taxable Sales
Motor Vehicles/Misc. Auto
Furniture/Home Furnishings
Building Material/Lawn & Garden
Building
- Residential Building Permits (12-month avg)
Single-family
Multi-family
- Greater Phoenix Home Sales
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Greater Phoenix Median Home Price
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Phoenix S&P/C Home Price Index (2000 = 100)
- Maricopa Pending Foreclosures
- Greater Phoenix Total Housing Inventory, (ARMLS)
Tourism
- Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers
- National Park Visitors
- State Park Visitors
- Revenue Per Available Hotel Room
General Measures
- Arizona Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Arizona Coincident Index (July 1992 = 100)
- Arizona Leading Index -- 6 month projected growth
- Arizona Personal Income
- Arizona Population
- State Debt Rating
Standards & Poor’s/Moody’s
Outlook
Agency Measures
- AHCCCS Recipients
Acute Care Traditional
Prop 204 Childless Adults
Other Prop 204
Adult Expansion
Kids Care I
Kids Care II
Long-Term Care – Elderly & DD
Emergency Services
- Department of Child Safety (DCS)
Annual Reports of Child Maltreatment (12-month total)
DCS Out-of-Home Children
Filled Caseworkers (1,406 Budgeted)
- ADC Inmate Growth
- Department of Economic Security
- TANF Recipients
- SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients
- Judiciary Probation Caseload
Non-Maricopa
Maricopa County
United States
- Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2009 dollars, SAAR)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Leading Indicators Index (2004 = 100)
- Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100)
- Personal Consumption Price Index (2009 = 100)

Change
From
Prior Period

Time Period

Current
Value

July
2nd Q 2014
June
June
July
July
July
July
July

7.0%
15.9%
23,093
42,214
2.51 million
156,500
120,000
34.2
$22.94

May
May
May

$859.7 million
$297.0 million
$351.4 million

(10.1)%
(9.5)%
7.2%

5.5%
5.3%
46.3%

June
June

17,651
8,498

(0.1)%
5.1%

0.8%
32.9%

June
June

7,624
1,169

(3.9)%
(8.6)%

(11.3)%
(7.3)%

June
June
May
July
July

$211,000
$128,000
146.01
6,351
26,928

2.9%
0.8%
0.4%
(1.9)%
(2.8)%

11.1%
2.4%
8.2%
(36.6)%
34.3%

May
April
March
June

3.59 million
965,980
304,575
$51.64

0.0%
2.6%
27.8%
(17.7)%

3.4%
(7.8)%
(2.1)%
5.2%

3rd Q 2014
June
June
st
1 Q 2014
July 2013

71.6
187.47
1.6%
$249.0 billion
6.63 million

(4.7)%
0.2%
0.3%
3.6%
N/A

(1.2)%
1.8%
(1.0)%
4.0%
1.2%

Dec 09/July 10

AA- / Aa3
Positive

N/A
N/A

August

1,552,539
970,897
248,788
163,775
27,281
1,990
0
55,573
84,235

2.6%
1.7%
5.7%
2.6%
11.1%
(1.1%)
0.0%
0.2%
2.4%

21.7%
9.2%
240.2%
11.0%
(71.5)%
(100.0)%
3.2%
24.2%

May 2014
May
July
June

44,820
16,468
1,309
41,926

(5.9)%
2.2%
26
0.4%

1.7%
12.5%
122
3.2%

June
June

28,781
1,047,897

(2.1)%
0.4%

(19.9)%
(5.3)%

May
May

17,499
25,012

Nov 13

Change From
Prior Year

0.1%
(0.2)%
5.0%
7.3%
(0.4)%
(0.1)%
(0.9)%
(2.0)%
0.2%

(42)
(348)

(1.1)%
0.2%
4.1%
1.8%
2.4%
0.3%
(4.9)%
(0.9)%
(0.3)%

N/A
N/A

(249)
(316)

2nd Q, 2014

$16.0 trillion

2.4%

4.0%

July
June
July
June

90.9
102.2
237.9
109.0

5.2%
0.3%
0.1%
0.2%

12.2%
6.3%
2.0%
1.6%

8

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – AUGUST 2014

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
AHCCCS – Report on the FY 2014 Hospital Assessment –
Pursuant to A.R.S. § 36-2901.08, the Arizona Health Care
Cost Containment System (AHCCCS) is required to
establish an assessment on hospital revenue, discharges,
or bed days for the purpose of funding the state match
portion of the Medicaid expansion (adults from 100%-133%
of the Federal Poverty Level) and the entire Proposition
204 population beginning January 1, 2014. In addition, a
FY 2014 General Appropriation Act footnote requires
AHCCCS to report on the amount each hospital
contributed to the assessment and the amount of
estimated payments each hospital received from
coverage funded by the assessment. This is the first report
on the hospital assessment.

funding for their eligibility requirements. In addition,
AHCCCS reports that as of July 28, 2014, it received
148,942 applicants from the health insurance exchange
and that the applicants were processed as follows:

The assessment is calculated by multiplying the number of
discharges reported on each hospital’s 2011 Medicare
Cost Report by the hospital’s per-inpatient discharge rate.
In FY 2014, the average discharge rate for all providers
was approximately $93. From January 1, 2014 to June 30,
2014, AHCCCS collected $75.2 million in assessments from
72 hospitals. Table 1 below lists how much each peer
hospital contributed since the assessment was enacted.

AHCCCS further reports that they continue to refine IT
processes and are waiting on federal government
coordination before completing remaining IT changes.
To date, a couple known issues include:







1.

T a ble 7
F Y 2 0 14
H o s pit a l P ro v ide r P e e r G ro up ( # o f ho s pit a ls ) 1/
Urban A cute P ro viders (28)

C o nt ribut io ns
$

Critical A ccess Ho spital (CA H) P ro viders (10)
No n-CA H Rural A cute P ro viders (14)
Lo ng-Term Care P ro vider (8)
Large P sychiatric P ro vider (4)
P ediatric-Intensive General A cute Ho spitals (2)
M edium P ediatric Intensive General A cute Ho spitals (6)
T o tal

45,682,900
916,200

% Of T o tal
60.8%
1.2%

9,083,700

12.1%

89,000

0 .1%

509,000

0.7%

5,723,400

7.6%

13,189,000
$ 7 5 ,19 3 ,2 0 0

17.5%
10 0 .0 %

1/ In FY 2014, 72 ho spitals participated in the ho spital assessment.

Due to reporting lags between providers and AHCCCS
health plan contractors, payments can take upwards of 36 months before paid claims appear in AHCCCS’
database. Because of this lag, AHCCCS will report the FY
2014 estimated payments each hospital received from
coverage funded by the assessment by December 31,
2014.
(Andrew Smith)
AHCCCS – Report on Health Insurance Exchange
Interaction and Eligibility Modifications – Pursuant to an FY
2014 General Appropriation Act footnote, the Arizona
Health Care Cost Containment System (AHCCCS) is
required to report on the progress made on their
automation interaction with the Federally-Facilitated
Marketplace (health insurance exchange) and eligibility
modifications as part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA).
This is the fourth quarterly report regarding AHCCCS’
enrollment system, known as Health-e-Arizona Plus
(HEAplus). As of August 11, 2014, AHCCCS reports that it
has met all requirements to obtain enhanced federal

2.

51,540 applicants, or 34.6%, were approved for
AHCCCS coverage;
28,417 applicants, or 19.1%, were denied coverage;
43,795 applicants, or 29.4%, were previously enrolled
in AHCCCS;
18,170 applicants, or 12.2%, were duplicates and
were not processed; and
7,020 applicants, or 4.7%, are pending receipt due
to additional information from the applicants.

The integration of the security check for state
workers, community assisters, and state vendors has
not yet been integrated with the federal exchange
since the federal exchange has not made testing of
the integration available. During the interim,
AHCCCS and the Department of Economic Security
are using an alternative process.
The federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid
Services (CMS) has not developed a process for the
coordination of decision notices or eligibility
appeals between the Federally-Facilitated
Marketplace (FFM) and AHCCCS. Implementation
is expected in 2015.
(Andrew Smith)

Arizona Department of Administration – Report on the
Financial Status of the Special Employee Insurance Trust
Fund – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 38-654G, the Arizona
Department of Administration (ADOA) is submitting their
required annual actuarial report on the financial status
of the Health Insurance Trust Fund (HITF). The actuarial
assumptions used to develop HITF projections include
healthcare trends (cost, utilization, and severity of
services), enrollment trends, and revenue projections
including legislative fund transfers. The plan had an
inflation and utilization trend of 2.7% in plan year (PY)
2013. ADOA reported that the plan is actuarial sound
for PY 2013 and 2014. Compared to the FY 2013
balance of $324.6 million, the projected HITIF balance is
$327.1 million at the end of FY 2014 and $280.0 million at
the end of FY 2015. ADOA’s reserve strategy consists of
fully funding incurred but not reported (IBNR) liabilities
and funding a contingency reserve of approximately
15% of annual expenses. Although there is no industry
standard for public employee plans, ADOA’s reserve
strategy is consistent with other state’s practices.
(Rebecca Perrera)

9

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – AUGUST 2014

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
Arizona Department of Administration – Report on State
Expenditures for the National Public Safety Broadband
Network Initiative – Following September 11, 2001, the
National 9/11 Commission recommended the
establishment of a nationwide, interoperable public
safety communications network to provide solutions to
communications challenges facing first responders. In
response, Congress passed legislation in 2012 creating the
National Public Safety Broadband Network (NPSBN)
initiative in an effort to build a nationwide, standardsbased, high-speed data network by reserving a part of
the electromagnetic spectrum specifically for public
safety, the 700 MHz broadband spectrum, or the “D
Block.”
More than $7 billion has been allocated for the NPSBN
initiative, with a majority of funding being raised through
the sale of rights to transmit signals over specific bands of
the electromagnetic spectrum that were surrendered by
television broadcasters during the transition from analog
to digital television. Part of the $7 billion allocated for this
initiative includes a grant program for state and local
governments, the State and Local Implementation Grant
Program (SLIGP). Approximately $118 million in formulabased grants were available to assist regional, state,
local, and tribal government entities in preparing for the
implementation of the NPSBN initiative.
Arizona was awarded $2.9 million through the SLIGP
formula in August 2013. The $2.9 million grant will be spent
in 2 phases, each approximately $1.5 million. The first
phase will be dedicated to education and outreach,
while the second phase will be devoted to gathering
relevant data. One requirement of the grant is that
Arizona and local governments additionally contribute at
least $745,200 in in-kind contributions to the project.
At its October 29, 2013 meeting, the JLBC required ADOA
to provide quarterly reports on the progress of SLIGP
expenditures. ADOA’s grant budget for FY 2014 was
$616,500, or 21% of the entire grant award. However, the
actual spending was significantly lower than the budget,
at $227,000. Approximately $2.4 million remains available
from the grant. Funds were used to complete county
level outreach. Specifically, ADOA conducted 14 fourhour sessions covering all 15 counties with 322 attendees
representing 220 local, county, and state agencies. In
addition, ADOA conducted briefings with 5 regional
wireless cooperatives and participated in 18 public safety
and public service events and conferences. For FY 2015,
AZNET plans to continue its education and outreach
efforts including briefing local jurisdictions, developing
and implementing a tribal version of the county briefings,
and developing and implementing a non-public safety
stakeholder program. (Rebecca Perrera)
Arizona Department of Administration – Report on Private
Leases – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 41-792D, the Arizona
Department of Administration (ADOA) is biennially
required to submit a report on all approved office leases

that exceeded the Lease Cost Review Board’s (LCRB)
estimated average cost per square foot for privatelyowned office space during the prior 2 years. ADOA
approved 54 leases in FY 2013 and 50 leases in FY 2014.
Eight of the leases approved in FY 2014 exceeded the
LCRB’s $19.40 average cost per square foot for
privately-leased space. (Rebecca Perrera)
Department of Child Safety (DCS) - Quarterly Foster
Care Medicaid Report - Pursuant to Laws 2013, Chapter
220, DCS is required to report on foster care and
Medicaid eligibility. These reports are required
quarterly until December 31, 2015.
During the fourth quarter of FY 2014, DCS reports the
following trends on foster care and Medicaid eligibility:
1. There were 15,141 children eligible for Medicaid in
foster care at the end of the fourth quarter, up from
14,391 at the end of the third quarter.
2. The percentage of foster care children eligible for
Medicaid dropped slightly from 98% at the end of
the third quarter to 97% at the end of the fourth
quarter.
3. The amount of non-Medicaid behavioral health
group home expenditures used by DCS to
supplement Medicaid behavioral health
placement services was $1.5 million in the fourth
quarter compared to $2.2 million in the third
quarter. The fourth quarter expenditure amount is
likely understated because of the year-end closing
process.
4. The amount of non-Medicaid behavioral health
evaluation/counseling expenditures used by DCS
to supplement Medicaid behavioral health services
declined from $140,400 in the third quarter to
$82,500 in the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter
expenditure amount is likely understated because
of the year-end closing process. (Ben Beutler)
Arizona Community Colleges – Annual Report – Pursuant
to A.R.S. § 15-1427, the Arizona Community Colleges
are required to report by December 1 of each year on
their progress during the previous year. They have just
submitted their FY 2013 report, which includes the
following summary information on the state system:
 335,755 students (headcount) were enrolled for
credit, resulting in a Full-Time Student Equivalent
count of 133,988.
 90% of enrolled students resided within the district,
while 10% did not reside within the district.
 Total number of instructors employed was 11,173, of
which 2,616 (23%) were full-time and 8,557 (77%)
were part-time.
 Total operating revenues were $1.6 billion (this
amount excludes bond proceeds and fund balance
which total $272.5 million).
 Total expenditures were $1.8 billion.
(Tom Ritland)

10

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – AUGUST 2014

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
Department of Health Services – Quarterly Report on
Individuals in the Comprehensive Medical and Dental
Program (CMDP) - Pursuant to Laws 2013, Chapter 220,
the Department of Health Services (DHS) is required to
report on the financial and program accountability trends
of CMDP, the foster care medical program. This report is
required quarterly until December 31, 2015.
DHS administers behavioral health services for CMDP
clients. In its third quarter FY 2014 report, DHS reports that
56%, or 9,954 of 17,928 children in CMDP, received
behavioral health services, which represents a 5% decline
from 61% in the second quarter of FY 2014. The service
utilization level ranged between 52% and 80% across the
6 geographic service areas, with Maricopa County and
Pima County service areas experiencing the lowest rate
of usage. From July 1, 2013 to March 31, 2014, almost 72%
of all children in CMDP had received behavioral health
services.
The most widely used services by CMDP members during
the third quarter of FY 2014 were support services
(including case management), treatment services, and
rehabilitation services. Of all members served, 97% used
support services, 75% used treatment services, and 15%
received rehabilitation services. The most expensive
service per capita was residential services. DHS states
that 84 CMDP members received nearly $900,000 in
residential services during the third quarter ($10,373 per
capita). Residential services consist of treatment at
facilities that provide 24-hour supervision from an on-site
or on-call behavioral health professional for CMDP
members who do not require on-site medical services or
who need protective oversight. (Matt Gress)
Public Programs Eligibility Report - As enacted in the 2006
election, Proposition 300 limits participation in certain
state programs to citizens, legal residents, or other persons
lawfully present in the United States, and requires semiannual reports to the Joint Legislative Budget Committee.
Below is a summary of the reports:
Universities - At the 3 universities, 135,909 students
registered for the spring 2014 semester. Of the total
students registered, the universities were able to verify the
legal immigration status of 126,595 students. Additionally,
the universities reported that 11,910 of these students did
not require verification because they have either not
requested or received in-state tuition or state supported
financial aid. The universities reported that a total of 21
students were unverifiable due to their inability to provide
the requisite documentation.

Department of Economic Security - The department
reported that 6,193 applications were received for
child care assistance during the reporting period of
December 1, 2013 to May 31, 2014. Of this number, 8
were denied because criteria for citizenship or legal
residency were not met.
Community Colleges - Statewide, the Community
Colleges reported a total of 220,275 students classified
as in-state for the spring 2014 semester. They reported
370 students who were not entitled to be classified as
in-state because of a lack of lawful immigration status.
Additionally, 87,805 students applied for financial aid.
Of those who applied, the community colleges
reported that 62 were not entitled to any aid because
they were not lawfully present in the United States.
Department of Education – The department reported
that 10,126 people applied for instruction in Arizona
Adult Education during the reporting period of
December 1, 2013 to June 1, 2014. Of this amount, 442
were denied instruction because they failed to provide
evidence of citizenship or legal residence in the United
States. The Arizona Adult Education program is funded
with a combination of state and Federal Funds. (Krista
MacGahan)
Department of Public Safety – Quarterly Report on the
GIITEM Fund – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 41-1724, the
Department of Public Safety (DPS) is required to report
quarterly on Gang and Immigration Intelligence Team
Enforcement Mission (GIITEM) Fund expenditures. In FY
2014, the GIITEM Fund was appropriated $2.6 million in
General Fund monies for grants to local law
enforcement agencies to help with border security.
During the fourth quarter of FY 2014 DPS expended
$213,000 in GIITEM Immigration Enforcement Grant
monies bringing the year-to-date total to $2.2 million.
These monies were distributed to the Pinal County
Sheriff’s Office, per statute, and to several other local
grant recipients to support operational costs.
Additionally, the GIITEM Border Security and Law
Enforcement Subaccount received $647,900 in criminal
fine and fee revenues in the fourth quarter of FY 2014
bringing the year-to-date total to $2.4 million. DPS
expended $1.2 million in the fourth quarter bringing the
year-to-date total to $2.2 million. The monies were
granted to 17 local law enforcement agencies and the
Arizona Department of Corrections for border security
purposes. (Eric Billings)

11

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – AUGUST 2014

July Spending
July 2014 General Fund spending of $2.44 billion was
$210.2 million greater than July 2013. The significant
amount of July expenditures relate to timing issues in the
Department of Education and the Department of
Economic Security.
(See Tables 8 & 9).



Department of Education spent $1.2 billion in July 2014,
as the Department distributed $1.0 billion of state aid
payments deferred from the prior fiscal year as part of
the state’s on-going K-12 rollover.



Department of Economic Security/Department of Child
Safety expenditures were $478.1 million in July, as the
Department of Economic Security made transfers for
the Medicaid state match for the developmentally
disabled program.

Table 8
General Fund Spending ($ in Millions)
Change From

YTD Change

July 14

July 13

Year-to-Date

from FY 14

124.9

14.1

124.9

14.1

Agency
AHCCCS
Corrections

82.3

8.2

82.3

8.2

Economic Security/Chlld Safety

478.1

66.2

478.1

66.2

Education

1,246.3

88.0

1,246.3

88.0

Health Serv ices

119.2

14.8

119.2

14.8

Public Safety

23.0

14.5

23.0

14.5

School Facilities Board

150.8

(1.5)

150.8

(1.5)

Univ ersities

44.6

4.6

44.6

4.6

Leaseback Debt Serv ice

84.1

0.0

84.1

0.0

Other

84.1

1.3

84.1

1.3

2,437.4

210.2

2,437.4

210.2

Total

12

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – AUGUST 2014

Table 9

General Fund Spending
($ in Thousands)
Agency
Dept. of Admin./Automation Projects Fund
ADOA – Sale/Leaseback Debt Service
Office of Administrative Hearings
Department of Agriculture
AHCCCS
Attorney General
State Board of Charter Schools
AZ Commerce Authority
Community Colleges
Corporation Commission
Department of Corrections
AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind
Dept. of Econ. Security/Dept. of Child Safety
Department of Education
DEMA
Office of Equal Opportunity
State Board of Equalization
Board of Executive Clemency
Department of Financial Institutions
Department of Fire, Bldg and Life Safety
State Forester
Arizona Geological Survey
Governor/OSPB
Department of Health Services
Arizona Historical Society
Prescott Historical Society of AZ
Independent Redistricting Comm.
Commission of Indian Affairs
Department of Insurance
Judiciary
Supreme/Superior Court
Court of Appeals
Department of Juvenile Corrections

July 14
522.2
84,123.7
65.0
698.9
124,900.7
2,320.1
44.8
2,625.0
16,521.5
43.2
82,266.0
1,667.2
478,118.7
1,246,254.4
793.0
13.9
110.7
66.1
182.9
83.7
350.4
58.6
600.6
119,154.2
300.5
67.6
34.7
5.1
366.7

Change from
July 13
(1,720.1)
3.9
3.4
94.5
14,118.9
805.9
(11.6)
617.7
1.3
8,181.6
(66.1)
66,216.3
87,971.1
30.9
(3.8)
1.0
8.6
(187.5)
(42.1)
100.9
(5.3)
(41.6)
14,764.1
(6.0)
(0.4)
(136.4)
1.0
(27.6)

Year-to-Date
522.2
84,123.7
65.0
698.9
124,900.7
2,320.1
44.8
2,625.0
16,521.5
43.2
82,266.0
1,667.2
478,118.7
1,246,254.4
793.0
13.9
110.7
66.1
182.9
83.7
350.4
58.6
600.6
119,154.2
300.5
67.6
34.7
5.1
366.7

YTD Change
from FY 14
(1,720.1)
3.9
3.4
94.5
14,118.9
805.9
(11.6)
617.7
1.3
8,181.6
(66.1)
66,216.3
87,971.1
30.9
(3.8)
1.0
8.6
(187.5)
(42.1)
100.9
(5.3)
(41.6)
14,764.1
(6.0)
(0.4)
(136.4)
1.0
(27.6)

14,736.7
1,027.8
3,338.9

(1,326.4)
15.6
164.6

14,736.7
1,027.8
3,338.9

(1,326.4)
15.6
164.6

13

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – AUGUST 2014

Table 9 (Continued)

Agency
State Land Department
Legislature
Auditor General
House of Representatives
Joint Legislative Budget Comm.
Legislative Council
Senate
Mine Inspector
Nav. Streams & Adjudication
Phoenix Convention Center
Pioneers’ Home
Comm. for Postsecondary Ed.
Department of Public Safety
Arizona Department of Racing
Radiation Regulatory Agency
Real Estate Department
Department of Revenue
School Facilities Board
Secretary of State
Tax Appeals Board
Office of Tourism
Universities
Board of Regents
Arizona State University
Northern Arizona University
University of Arizona
Department of Veteran Services
Department of Water Resources
Department of Weights & Measures
Other
Total

July 14
792.0

Change from
July 13
26.8

Year-to-Date
792.0

YTD Change
from FY 14
26.8

1,456.0
961.6
171.2
965.8
658.4
106.5
9.1
20,449.0
414.6
99.0
22,953.9
1,779.5
254.9
168.5
4,008.4
150,815.3
653.1
16.9
3,185.9

110.7
(8.2)
21.6
271.0
15.5
10.1
0.3
46.2
99.0
14,549.3
(1.7)
10.1
(556.4)
(1,496.8)
(54.6)
(0.8)
3,021.1

1,456.0
961.6
171.2
965.8
658.4
106.5
9.1
20,449.0
414.6
99.0
22,953.9
1,779.5
254.9
168.5
4,008.4
150,815.3
653.1
16.9
3,185.9

110.7
(8.2)
21.6
271.0
15.5
10.1
0.3
46.2
99.0
14,549.3
(1.7)
10.1
(556.4)
(1,496.8)
(54.6)
(0.8)
3,021.1

268.2
20,396.7
7,315.5
16,666.4
422.1
850.2
67.4
4.0
2,437,373.4

175.5
2,008.0
1,244.7
1,204.6
(42.2)
14.2
(18.4)
4.0
210,180.1

268.2
20,396.7
7,315.5
16,666.4
422.1
850.2
67.4
4.0
2,437,373.4

175.5
2,008.0
1,244.7
1,204.6
(42.2)
14.2
(18.4)
4.0
210,180.1

Tracking Arizona’s Recovery
August 2014
Appendix A
Slide:
2……Total Non-Farm Employment
3……Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector
4……Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
5……State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
6……State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting
Category
7……Residential Building Permits
8……Economic Activity Index

1

JLBC

Total Non-Farm Employment
2,800

2,507,800 jobs
(July 2014)

Thousands of Jobs

2,700

2,600

2,500

2,400

2,300

2,200

JLBC

2008

Not seasonally adjusted

2009

2010

2011 2012

JUL

JAN

JAN

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2007

JAN

JUL

2006

JAN

JUL

2005

JAN

JUL

2004

JAN

JUL

2003

JAN

JUL

2002

JAN

JUL

2001

JAN

JAN

2,100

2013 2014

2

2001

JLBC

2002

2003

2004 2005

2006

2007 2008

Not seasonally adjusted

2009

2010

2011 2012

JAN

JUL

JAN

30,000

JUL

35,000
Jan-13

2013

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan 07

Apr-14
Jul-14

Oct-13
Jan-14

Apr-13
Jul-13

Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13

Jan 12
Apr 12

July 11
Oct 11

Oct 10
Jan 11
Apr 11

Apr 10
July 10

Oct 09
Jan 10

Jan 09
Apr 09
July 09

July 08
Oct 08

Jan 08
Apr 08

Apr 07
July 07
Oct 07

$21

JAN

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr 12

Jan 12

Oct 11

July 11

Apr 11

Jan 11

Oct 10

July 10

Apr 10

Jan 10

Oct 09

July 09

Apr 09

Jan 09

Oct 08

July 08

Apr 08

Jan 08

Oct 07

July 07

Apr 07

Jan 07

Year Over Year Growth (%)

9%
7%

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JLBC

JUL

JAN

Total Monthly Claims for UI Benefits

$ / Hour

Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector
$25

$24

$23

$22

$22.94 / Hour
(July 2014)

$20

$19

11%

(0.3)% Y/Y Growth
(July 2014)

5%
3%

1%
-1%

-3%

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

3

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

45,000

40,000

23,093 Claims
(June 2014)

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

2014

4

Jan 07

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

Jul-13

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

$75

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr 12

Jan 12

Oct 11

July 11

Apr 11

Jan 11

Oct 10

July 10

Apr 10

Jan 10

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

Oct 09

July 09

Apr 09

Jan 09

Oct 08

July 08

Apr 08

Jan 08

Oct 07

July 07

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr 12

Jan 12

Oct 11

July 11

Apr 11

Jan 11

Oct 10

July 10

Apr 10

Jan 10

Oct 09

July 09

Apr 09

Jan 09

Oct 08

July 08

Apr 08

Jan 08

Oct 07

July 07

Apr 07

Jan 07

Oct 06

July 06

Year Over Year Growth (%)

Jul-14

Apr-14

*Jan-14

JLBC

Apr 07

July 06
Oct 06
Jan 07
Apr 07
July 07
Oct 07
Jan 08
Apr 08
July 08
Oct 08
Jan 09
Apr 09
July 09
Oct 09
Jan 10
Apr 10
July 10
Oct 10
Jan 11
Apr 11
July 11
Oct 11
Jan 12
Apr 12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

Oct 06

$ in Millions

July 06
Oct 06
Jan 07
Apr 07
July 07
Oct 07
Jan 08
Apr 08
July 08
Oct 08
Jan 09
Apr 09
July 09
Oct 09
Jan 10
Apr 10
July 10
Oct 10
Jan 11
Apr 11
July 11
Oct 11
Jan 12
Apr 12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
* Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14

$125

Apr-13

JLBC
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%

July 06

Year Over Year Growth (%)

$ in Millions

State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
$225

$200

$175

$150

$166.5 million
(July 2014)

$100

1.1% Y/Y Growth
(July 2014)

* January 2014 collections reflect the reclassification of approximately $40
million of revenue from other tax categories to retail collections

5

State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting Category
$100

$43.4 million
(July 2014)

$50

$25

$0

(1.3)% Y/Y Growth
(July 2014)

6

Residential Building Permits
100,000

Building Permits

90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000

Single Family Unit - 17,651 Permits
Multi-Family Unit - 8,498 Permits
(June 2014)

50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005 2006

JLBC

2007

2012

JUL

JAN

JAN

JULY

JUL

2011

JAN

JUL

2010

JAN

JUL

2009

JAN

JUL

2008

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JAN

0

2013

2014

7

12-Month Moving Sum

Economic Activity Index
210

187.5 Index Value
(June 2014)

Coincident Index Value

200
190
180
170
160
150

2001

JLBC

2004

2005

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Coincident Index – Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Combines four state-level indicators
(employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary
disbursements) to summarize current economic conditions.

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JUL

2009

JAN

JUL

2008

JAN

JUL

2007

JAN

JUL

2006

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2003

JAN

JUL

2002

JAN

JAN

JUL

JAN

140

2014

8