JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights

July 2014

Summary
1716 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Phone:
(602) 926-5491
Fax:
(602) 926-5416

www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

“[FY 2014]
General Fund
ongoing
revenues were
2.1% greater
than FY 2013.”

On June 30th, state Fiscal Year 2014 ended. June
results were disappointing, further increasing the
year-to-date revenue shortfall.
While the ending date of the fiscal year was
June 30th, the state continued to process
transactions during the next several weeks until
mid-July before closing the books (known as the
“13th month”). The General Accounting Office
will issue its first report of an estimated FY 2014
ending balance in mid-September.
Even though the state has just now begun the
year-end accounting process, preliminary data
allows us to draw some initial conclusions about
the overall status of FY 2014:
• Year-to-date (YTD) General Fund ongoing
revenues were 2.1% greater than FY 2013.
Adjusting for the estimated cost of tax law
changes, underlying base FY 2014 revenue
growth was approximately 2.8%.
• FY 2014 represented the lowest growth rate
seen since FY 2010, when the state posted a
revenue decline during the Great Recession.
• Total FY 2014 General Fund revenues were
$9.34 billion, which consisted of $8.45 billion
from current FY 2014 collections and an $895
million beginning balance.
• In June alone, revenue collections were $(56)
million below forecast, primarily due to low
Corporate Income and Sales Tax collections.
• Overall, FY 2014 General Fund revenues were
$(113) million below the enacted forecast.
• Total FY 2014 General Fund spending is
projected to be $8.81 billion, which represents
an increase of 2.3% above FY 2013.
• FY 2014 General Fund spending is estimated

to be $(47) million below the budgeted
spending level. This is mostly due to lower than
expected spending in the AHCCCS program.
• The FY 2014 ending balance had previously
been estimated at $596 million. Given the
$(113) million revenue shortfall, along with $47
million of expenditure savings, the FY 2014
ending balance is expected to decline to
$530 million. This would represent a net
decline of $(66) million.
FY 2015 Potential Impacts
• The FY 2015 budget was built on a $596 million
carry forward from FY 2014. Based solely on
the carry forward declining by $(66) million,
the FY 2015 ending balance would decline
from its original estimate of $130 million to an
adjusted estimated of $64 million.
• The lower-than-expected FY 2014 revenue
base could also affect the FY 2015 revenue
collections and FY 2015 ending balance. Even
if the state still reaches its FY 2015 budgeted
growth rate of 5.3%, the lower FY 2014 base
would generate a revenue shortfall of $(113)
million in FY 2015. As a result, the FY 2015
ending balance would further drop from a
$64 million balance to a $(49) million shortfall.
• These estimates do not incorporate the
impact of the preliminary Maricopa County
Superior Court ruling in the K-12 inflation
litigation. As described more fully in a JLBC
Staff Report, the ruling could require the state
to increase its K-12 spending by $317 million in
FY 2015. This funding would “reset” the per
pupil amount prospectively to adjust for
foregone inflation in prior years. It does not
include “back payments” for K-12 inflation
payments which did not occur in prior years.

Table of Contents
Summary

This report has been
prepared for the Arizona
Legislature by the Joint
Legislative Budget
Committee Staff on
July 21, 2014.

• FY 2015 Potential Impacts ..................................1

• AHCCCS – Graduate Medical Education ..... 9

• FY 2016 Potential Impacts ..................................2

• AHCCCS – Safety Net Care Pool Program .... 9

• Other Caveats .....................................................2

• AHCCCS/DHS – Reconciliation Payments ..... 9

• FY 2014 Revenue .................................................2

• DCS – Program Accountability Report ........... 9

• FY 2014 Spending ................................................2

• DES – Report on ATP-Coolidge Campus ...... 10

• Final FY 2014 Estimates .......................................3

• ADE – English Learners Report ........................ 10

• Child Safety Staff Report ....................................3

• Universities – Retention and Graduation ...... 10

June Revenues ........................................................3

• Universities – Performance Funding ............... 10

Monthly Indicators ..................................................6

June Spending ...................................................... 11

Summary of Recent Agency Reports

Tracking Arizona’s Recovery ............. Appendix A

• ADOA – Health and Dental Plan Report .........9

2

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2014

Summary (Continued)
• The K-12 “reset” would further reduce the projected
FY 2015 shortfall from $(49) million to $(366) million.
(See Table 1).
• To keep the FY 2015 budget balanced, base revenue
would have to grow by 9.4% rather than the
budgeted rate of 5.3% to offset the potential $(366)
million shortfall.
FY 2016 Potential Impacts
• The projected FY 2016 balance (after the Special
Session) was a $(237) million shortfall. The elimination
of the assumed $130 million beginning balance and
the $(113) million lower revenue base, would
potentially leave FY 2016 with a shortfall of $(480)
million. If the state were to incur additional expenses
of $320 million relating to the K-12 litigation, the FY
2016 shortfall would increase to $(800) million. These FY
2016 results would occur assuming any FY 2015
shortfall was resolved.
• If a FY 2015 shortfall of $(366) million was not resolved,
the cumulative effect would be a deficit of
approximately $(1.2) billion in FY 2016.
Other Caveats
• The potential FY 2015 and FY 2016 ending balances
retain the budgeted revenue growth rates for those
years. The projected growth rates will be updated at
the Finance Advisory Committee (FAC) meeting,
which is scheduled for October 3rd.
Table 1

Special Session
FY 2014 Results
FY 2014 Results +
K-12 Reset Ruling

While ongoing revenues grew 2.1%, total collections
declined by (7.8)% from the prior year. This reduction was
mostly due to the expiration of the 1-cent sales tax
enacted by Proposition 100 in May 2010.
The total revenue amount of $9.34 billion is $(113) million
below the enacted forecast. (See page 5 for detail).
FY 2014 revenue collections were less than the forecast in
each of the state’s 3 main revenue categories (Sales,
Individual Income and Corporate Income Taxes).
Corporate Income Taxes alone contributed almost $(60)
million to the shortfall. Table 2 displays the performance
of these revenue categories as compared to the
enacted forecast.
Table 2

Growth Rates Compared to
Enacted Forecast By Revenue Category

Ind. Income

($ in Millions)
FY 2015

• $8.45 billion of total FY 2014 collections, which included
one-time transfers.
• $895 million beginning balance carried forward from FY
2013.

Sales*

Potential Ending Balance Estimates

After:

FY 2014 Revenue
Based on preliminary data, the state posted a 2.1%
revenue growth rate during FY 2014. This estimate
excludes Urban Revenue Sharing and one-time revenues.
Including one-time monies, FY 2014 General Fund
revenues totaled $9.34 billion. This amount consisted of:

FY 2016

$130

$(237)

(49)

(480)

(366)

(800)

• None of the stated estimates include “back
payments” for K-12 inflation payments which did not
occur in prior years. The plaintiffs are seeking $250
million annually for 5 years.
• These potential cash balance estimates do not
include the state’s Budget Stabilization Fund, which
currently has a balance of $455.3 million.
The state’s fiscal health can also be measured by the
operating fund balance. The state pays its bills out of
the operating fund balance, which consists of the
General Fund and certain dedicated funds. The ending
FY 2014 operating balance was $2.8 billion, compared
to $3.2 billion a year earlier. Due to large rollover
payments at the beginning of FY 2015, the balance has
fallen to $1.7 billion.

Corp. Income

Budgeted
5.7%
3.7%
(3.5)%

Prelim. Actual
5.4%
1.9%
(13.1)%

* Without 1-cent increase

FY 2014 Spending
Including an estimated $60.0 million of “13th month”
transactions, FY 2014 spending is projected to total $8.81
billion. (See pages 12/13 for more detail). This amount is
$(47) million less than assumed in the enacted budget.
The lower-than-expected spending level is largely due to
AHCCCS. Other large agencies (such as the Department
of Education), appear to be near budgeted spending
levels.
At 1.5 million members, overall AHCCCS enrollment is
almost 100,000 greater than forecast. The overage,
however, has occurred in populations funded by the
hospital assessment. The General Fund still supports the
state match for the traditional acute care program -- the
lowest income group. That population has grown less
quickly than anticipated.
The impact of the lower than projected FY 2014 spending
on FY 2015 is unclear. Given the relatively brief timeframe
since the significant expansion of the AHCCCS program
(January 2014), there is limited data to determine
whether enrollment will continue to remain below
projections.

3

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2014

Summary (Continued)
Final FY 2014 Estimates
After the end of the “13 month” period, the state’s books
are officially closed. After that period, it will take several
months to confirm year-end adjustments and to officially
determine the state's fiscal year ending balance. The
General Appropriation Act requires the Executive Branch
to provide a preliminary estimate of the FY 2014 ending
balance by September 15, 2014. By law, the Department
of Administration is required to publish its final FY 2014
accounting by December 1, 2014.
Monthly Indicators
The JLBC Staff has added some new measures to its
Monthly Indicators and deleted others (see page 8).
The additions include:
•
•
•
•
•
•

The total unemployment rate which incorporates
discouraged and underemployed workers
Private sector weekly hours and average hourly
wages
Detailed retail sales data (motor vehicle and other
building measures)
National and state park visits
State debt ratings
Department of Child Safety workload measures

National semiconductor billings and natural gas price
measures have been deleted due to technical issues.
Child Safety Staff Report
Pursuant to statute, the Department of Child Safety (DCS)
has submitted the June report on its progress in hiring
child safety staff.
Direct Line Child Safety Staff - The Legislature authorized
DCS to hire 126 additional direct line child safety staff as
part of the agency’s FY 2014 supplemental
appropriation. Since January, the number of direct line

child safety staff (caseworkers, caseworkers in
training, and hotline staff) has increased by 93 FTE.
The level of just case-carrying caseworkers in June –
982 staff – was the same as in January. The number
of staff in training, however, has increased by 88.
In the last month, the number of direct line child
safety staff has increased by 35. DCS has also hired
43 more individuals who will begin their employment
by July and then enter training. Beginning with this
publication, filled caseworkers will be reported
monthly as an economic indicator in Table 8. Of its
1,320 authorized caseworker positions, DCS filled
1,283 in June, or 97%.
Non-Direct Line Child Safety Staff - The Legislature
also authorized DCS to hire 66 non-direct line child
safety staff. Since January, non-direct line child
safety staff has increased by 48 to 1,109. In June,
staffing increased by 3 FTE Positions.
T a ble 3

Change in the Department of Child Safety
Staff since January 2014
Change
Direct Line Staff

January

May

June

Caseworkers
Hotline Staff 1/
Staff in Training

983
70

995
76

982
76

137
Subtotal - Direct Line
1,190
Non-Direct Line Staff
Asst. Program Managers
36
Unit Superv isors
168
Case Aides
211
Other Non-Direct Line Staff
646
Subtotal - Non-Direct Line 1,061
Grand Total
2,251

since January
(1)
6

177

225

88

1,248

1,283

93

32
182
231
661
1,106
2,354

34
193
232
650 2/
1,109
2,392

(2)
25
21
4
48
141

1/ Excludes 20 tempo rary staff
2/ There are an estimated 180 unit secretaries included in this figure.

June Revenues
Table 4

June
Year-to-Date

General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions)
FY 2014
Collections
$ 989.0
$ 8,448.4

Sales Tax collections of $294.6 million were 2.1% above
June of last year and $(16.1) million below the forecast for
the month. The year-over-year change amounts exclude
the temporary 1-cent sales tax which expired at the end
of May 2013.
Total FY 2014 sales tax collections were 5.4% above the
prior year, and $(10.7) million below the forecast.

Difference From
Budget Forecast
$ (55.8)
$ (113.2)

Difference
From FY 2013
$ (68.2)
$ (714.1)

Table 5 displays the June growth rates for the largest sales
tax categories.
Retail and contracting together account for over 60% of
all sales tax revenues. June retail, which reflects May
sales, increased by 4.0%. For FY 2014, the retail category
grew by 7.8%. The overall FY 2014 retail collections
reflect $40 million of one-time reallocations in January
from other sales tax categories. Without that adjustment,
retail would have increased by 6.2%.

4

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2014

June Revenues (Continued)
Contracting has experienced double digit increases
every month through the first 3 quarters of the current
fiscal year, but has tapered off over the last 3 months,
with an April increase of 4.4%, May at 6.4%, and June
negative at (8.5)%. For FY 2014, contracting has
increased by 11.2% over the prior year.
Table 5

Sales Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

Retail
Contracting
Use
Restaurant & Bar

June
4.0%
(8.5)%
(3.0)%
10.2%

YTD
7.8%
11.2%
(8.5)%
5.1%

Individual Income Tax net revenues were $360.7 million in
June, which was $30.1 million above the prior year.
Collections were $2.5 million above the forecast for the
month.
Total FY 2014 revenues have grown by 1.9% and are
$(38.5) million below the forecast for the year. FY 2014
represented the slowest individual income tax growth rate
since FY 2010.
As indicated in Table 6, withholding increased by 11.7%
for the month. The high growth rate may be a timing issue
related to the (0.8)% decline in May. The June increase
brings withholding tax collections for the fiscal year to
3.4% over the prior year. This amount is $(2.6) million
below the forecast.
June estimated and final payments of $104.7 million were
1.1% above last year, and were $(2.4) million below the
forecast. Total FY 2014 payments were $3.7 million above
the forecast and were (3.4)% below FY 2013.
June refunds of $(24.8) million were 1.1% greater than last
year. Total FY 2014 refunds were $(13.6) million greater
than last year, and $(39.6) million greater than the
forecast.
The weak overall growth rate of 1.9% may be attributable
to several factors. The very modest growth in
employment along with relatively flat wages (see the
Monthly Indicators section) limited withholding growth to
3.4%.
In addition, the federal fiscal cliff of January 2013 may
have been steeper than first thought. Both the
anticipated and actual January 2013 federal tax rate
increases may have accelerated more income into tax
year 2012 (FY 2013) than originally believed. This
acceleration would have reduced the corresponding
profit-taking in the following tax year of 2013 (FY 2014),
which may have lead to the (3.4)% decline in estimated
and final tax payments during this past tax filing season.

Table 6
Individual Income Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year
Withholding
Estimated +
Final Payments
Refunds

June
11.7%
1.1%
1.1%

YTD
3.4%
(3.4)%
1.1%

Corporate Income Tax net collections were $96.9 million in
June, which was $(27.7) million less than June of the prior
year. Collections for the month were $(33.6) million below
the forecast. This decline continues a year-long trend.
Total FY 2014 collections were down (13.1)% compared to
the prior year, and are $(59.9) million below the forecast.
The reasons behind the significant decline in corporate
income tax collections are not well understood. At least
at a national level, corporate profitability remains
positive. The significant corporate tax reductions –
including a rate reduction and 100% sales factor – began
on January 1, 2014. We do not know whether
corporations have begun to reduce their quarterly
payments in anticipation of a lower tax burden in their
April 2015 filing. Corporations may also be taking greater
advantage of tax credits. This information, however,
would not be available for several years.
The Lottery Commission reports that June ticket sales
were $51.0 million, which is $4.3 million, or 8.4%, above
sales in the prior year. Total FY 2014 ticket sales were
$724.0 million, which is 4.5% above last year’s sales.
Miscellaneous revenues of $59.2 million in June were
$(10.5) million below last year, and $(21.9) million below
the forecast. Total FY 2014 collections of $73.4 million were
$(26.6) million below the forecast. The shortfall was
primarily due to a reduced Unclaimed Property deposit
compared to FY 2013. The FY 2014 deposit to the General
Fund of $49.2 million was $(11.7) million less than the $60.9
million FY 2013 deposit.
The Disproportionate Share deposit of $75.4 million was
approved by the federal government on June 30th, but
not received by the state until July 11, 2014. That deposit
has been displayed as FY 2014 revenue. There is currently
a discussion among state financial officials with regard to
the most appropriate fiscal year display of these monies.
Disproportionate share hospital revenues are funds
received from the federal government for hospitals that
serve a disproportionate share of low-income and
Medicaid patients. Revenues earned above a certain
level are retained by the General Fund.
Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) collections of $105.7
million in June were up $2.6 million, or 2.5% compared to
June of last year.
Total FY 2014 revenues are 2.6% above collections in the
prior year, and are $19.2 million above forecast.

5
Table 7

General Fund Revenue:
Change from Previous Year and January Forecast
June 2014
Current Month

FY 2014 YTD (Twelve Months)

Change From
Actual

June 2013

June 2014

Amount

Change from
January Forecast

Percent

Amount

Actual

Percent

June 2013

June 2014

Amount

$3,983,054,519

$204,190,774

January Forecast
Percent

Amount

Percent

Taxes
Sales and Use
Income - Individual
- Corporate

$294,593,319

$6,187,552

360,688,121

30,126,476

96,900,745

(27,692,236)

2.1 %
9.1
(22.2)

($16,096,817)
2,537,747
(33,601,565)

(5.2) %
0.7

3,462,859,929

65,314,800

5.4 %
1.9

(25.7)

575,081,398

(86,945,000)

(13.1)

($10,655,681)
(38,521,671)
(59,898,202)

Property

7,222,292

5,196,249

256.5

4,165,721

136.3

25,611,187

12,408,680

94.0

9,611,187

Luxury - Tobacco

3,356,479

246,615

7.9

0

0.0

26,078,370

1,547,956

6.3

1,313,167

3,021,703

257,275

9.3

0

0.0

31,931,431

277,249

0.9

79,895,897

9,258,974

13.1

5,922,483

8.0

411,293,892

24,517,788

- Liquor
Insurance Premium
Other Taxes
Sub-Total Taxes

29,018

(15,579)

(34.9)
2.9 %

(45,982)

$845,707,574

$23,565,326

($37,118,413)

33,190,100

2,314,575

7.5

4,428,968

3,918,992

787,748

25.2

1,367,334

13,902,362

8,702,593

167.4

1,537,239

(9,751,328)

(86.4)

Other Miscellaneous

59,159,588

(10,534,587)

(15.1)

Disproportionate Share

75,366,153

(2,838,444)

(3.6)

2,835,127

2,933,633

(61.3)
(4.2) %

531,238

(1,036,096)

6.3
(66.1)
2.7 %

(503,266)
11,293,892
(1,068,762)
($88,429,335)

(0.3) %
(1.1)
(9.4)
60.1
5.3
(1.6)
2.8
(66.8)

$8,516,441,965

$220,276,152

(1.0) %

15.4

80,293,493

1,032,668

53.6

29,288,392

7,914,203

132.2

13,908,142

(8,995,205)

(85.4)

26,830,347

(10,063,961)

(27.3)

(11,169,653)

(29.4)

(21,876,596)

(27.0)

73,440,138

(20,947,627)

(22.2)

(26,559,862)

(26.6)

(654,547)

(0.9)

75,366,153

(2,838,444)

(3.6)

(654,547)

(0.9)

19,801,912

(11,277,287)

(36.3)

(12,198,088)

(38.1)

($42,338,347)

Other Revenue
Lottery
License, Fees and Permits
Interest
Sales and Services

Transfers and Reimbursements
Sub-Total Other Revenue
TOTAL BASE REVENUE

$189,909,561
$1,035,617,135

($8,385,810)
$15,179,516

--

1,983,880

233.1

(4.2) %

($15,831,963)

(7.7) %

$318,928,577

1.5 %

($52,950,376)

(4.9) %

$8,835,370,542

(132,813)
1,889,117

$177,937,805

1.3

2,745,493

3.5

(0.5)

(1,281,608)

(4.2)

15.7

3,908,142

39.1

(11.7) %

($45,210,123)

(12.4) %

2.1 %

($133,639,458)

(1.5) %

Other Adjustments
Urban Revenue Sharing
One-Time Transfers
Sales Tax - 1¢ Increase
Sub-Total Other Adjustments
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE

(46,709,330)
79,211
0
(46,630,119)
$988,987,016

(3,910,660)
79,211

9.1
--

(79,516,569) (100.0)

0
(2,820,827)
0

(561,001,193)

(47,417,153)

9.2

0

0.0

(97.3)

0.0

165,803,956

109,303,956

193.5

12,212,356

8.0

--

8,237,401

(953,934,574)

(99.1)

8,237,401

--

20,449,757

(5.0) %

(83,348,018)

-- %

(2,820,827)

6.4 %

(386,959,836)

($68,168,502)

(6.4) %

($55,771,203)

(5.3) %

$8,448,410,706

1.5 %

$1,241,332,487

(892,047,771)

-- %

($714,109,967)

(7.8) %

($113,189,702)

(1.3) %

Non-General Funds
Highway User Revenue Fund

$105,711,387

$2,605,672

2.5 %

$1,574,615

$31,308,408

2.6 %

$19,208,167

1.6 %

6

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2014

Monthly Indicators
NATIONAL
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau
of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of (2.9)% in
the first quarter of 2014. This represents the first decrease
in GDP since the first quarter of 2011. The latest estimate
was a significant deceleration from the 2.6% growth in
the fourth quarter of 2013. The slowdown was primarily
due to decreases in inventory investment, nonresidential
fixed investment, exports, and state and local
government spending while consumer spending
increased at a small rate. A portion of the slowdown in
the first quarter is likely the result of unusually harsh winter
weather and a concentration of inventory investment in
the fourth quarter of 2014.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence
Index increased 3.6% in June and 3.8% since June 2013.
The latest reading of 85.2 represents the index’s highest
level since January 2008. Recent gains were primarily
driven by improvement in consumers’ view of current
business conditions. The view of current job prospects
and short-term expectations about the economy also
improved since last month.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Economic Index
increased by 0.5% in May and 5.9% since May 2013. Of
the index’s 10 components, 9 improved or remained the
same while 1 decreased. Improvements in components
for credit, production workers’ average hours and initial
unemployment insurance claims led the increase, more
than making up for a strongly negative contribution from
building permits.
Beginning this month, the MFH will track consumer prices
as measured by the U.S. Personal Consumption
Expenditure Price Index (PCEPI). According to the
PCEPI, prices rose 0.2% in May and 1.8% above May 2013
levels. The year-over-year growth rate has risen sharply
from its rate of 0.8% in February. The MFH has
traditionally reported national prices by tracking the U.S.
Consumer Price Index. Inflation as tracked by the PCEPI
however, is the Federal Reserve Bank’s preferred inflation
measure for determining the pace at which monetary
stimulus to the economy is reduced. The Bank generally
aims to maintain annual inflation of 2% over the medium
term. Since the start of 2014, the Bank has reduced its
monthly purchases of mortgage-backed securities, from
$85 billion to $35 billion. The Fed continues to issue shortterm loans at nearly 0% interest rates.
ARIZONA
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s coincident
index gauges current economic activity in each state.
The index combines 4 indicators: employment, average

hours worked in manufacturing, unemployment rate,
and inflation-adjusted wages.
Arizona’s coincident index was unchanged compared
to the prior month. Since May 2013, the Arizona index
has increased by 1.7%, which ranks only 41st in the
nation. See Appendix A – Tracking Arizona’s Recovery
for additional historical information.
Housing
The total housing inventory in the Greater Phoenix area
decreased by (4.4)% in June to 27,708. The inventory,
however, is 42.0% larger than last year.
In the Metropolitan Phoenix area, the median price of
a single family home remained stable at $205,000 in
May. The price is 10.8% higher than May of last year.
However, this rate of price increase is markedly slower
than it has been in previous months. For example, the
year-over-year price increase was 25.9% in May 2013.
The housing construction recovery continues to be
slow. The 12-month rolling sum of single-family building
permits of 17,663 is only 2.9% larger than last year. The
housing sector continues to restrain Arizona’s overall
economic growth. See Appendix A – Tracking Arizona’s
Recovery for historical information.
On the other hand, the 12-month rolling sum of multifamily building permits has increased significantly since
last year. The 8,085 multi-family building permits is
27.6% above 2013. In Arizona and the rest of the
country, individuals who might otherwise purchase
homes have become renters. This has provided a
boost to the multi-family sector.
Employment
The Department of Administration’s job report for June
shows very modest improvement in the state’s nonfarm
employment, following several months of decelerating
growth in the state’s labor market. Compared to June
2013, total nonfarm employment increased by 1.7%, or
42,800 jobs. This year-over-year job growth restores
most of the reduction of jobs in May when growth sunk
to 1.2%, or 31,000 jobs.
While employers shed (39,500) jobs between May and
June, the state has on average lost (44,000) jobs in
June over the last 10 years. The state typically loses
jobs in June with the end of the school year. Almost
90% (36,000) of the month’s reduction occurred in the
government sector, all of which was due to decreases
in state and local education employment.
Government sector job losses during the month were
less than the average (39,400) lost over the 10 prior
months of June.

7

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2014

Monthly Indicators (Continued)
In terms of specific industries, the professional and
business services sector gained 3,900 jobs while the
financial activities sector gained 2,200 jobs from May to
June. While employment in education and health fell
(5,500) from May to June, the sector’s year-over-year
employment increased by 15,200 jobs (4.1%).
Arizona’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose
by 0.1% in June, going from 6.8% in May to 6.9% in June.
The monthly increase was the first in 12 months, when
the rate rose from 8.0% in May 2013 to 8.1% in June 2013.
For the nation as a whole, the unemployment rate
dropped (0.2)% to 6.1% in June.
Starting this month, the MFH includes a broader measure
of labor underutilization called the total unemployment
rate. Besides the “regularly” unemployed, the measure
also includes persons who are available to work but
stopped looking for a job because they do not expect
to find one (“discouraged workers”), and persons who
had to settle for part-time employment since they could
not find a full-time job (“underemployed workers”). The
total unemployment rate in the first quarter of 2014 was
16.1%, which is 0.5% above the rate during the first
quarter of 2013.
Beginning this month, the MFH will also track 2 new
measures of typical worker experience of the labor
market. In May, the Average Weekly Hours worked by
individuals in Arizona’s private sector was 34.3 hours. This
workload is (1.2)% below that seen during May 2013.
The Average Hourly Earnings received by these private
sector workers was $22.79 in May 2014, which is the
same average experienced a year prior in May 2013.
The U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of
Economic Analysis quarterly releases estimates of
annual Personal Income received in each state. This
measure includes wages and salaries, proprietors’
income, dividends, interest, rent, and various
supplements to income while excluding capital gains,
contributions for government social insurance, and
pension benefit payments. Personal income in Arizona
increased at an annual rate of 3.6% in the first quarter
of 2014, up from a rate of 2.5% in the fourth quarter of
2013. Estimates are not adjusted for inflation.
Tourism
Starting this month, the JLBC will begin tracking
National Park and State Park visitations in addition to
total Sky Harbor air passengers and average revenue
per hotel room rates.
National Park visitations, as measured by the National
Park Service, increased 2.6% in April but decreased
(7.8)% from April 2013. In total, 965,980 national park
visitors were reported in April 2014, with total visits of 3
million since the start of the calendar year.

State Park visitations, as reported by Arizona State Parks,
increased 27.8% in March, decreased (2.1)% from March
2013. In total there were 304,575 visitors to state parks in
March, with total visits of 705,443 since the start of the
calendar year.
State Agency Data
At the beginning of July, the total AHCCCS caseload was
1.5 million members. Since the federal health care
expansion in January, the overall AHCCCS population
has grown by 255,620 members.
The traditional acute care AHCCCS population of lower
income children and their parents, grew by 14,647 in July
to a level of 954,290. This level represents an increase of
1.6% since last month and 7.3% since last year.
Since January, childless adults have been again eligible
for coverage. In the last month, the number of childless
adults increased by 19,736. Since December, the
childless adult population has increased by 167,708 to
reach a level of 235,478.
The state also opted to expand adult Medicaid coverage
to 133% of FPL. Enrollment increased by 4,771 in July and
now totals 24,560 individuals.
The Monthly Indicator section is being expanded this
month to include Department of Child Safety measures.
As of April 2014, the Department of Child Safety received
44,596 reports of child maltreatment in the last 12 months,
which was an increase of 1.8% over the prior year. There
were 16,107 children in out-of-home care in April 2014, or
2.3% more children than in March 2014. Year-over-year,
the number of out-of-home children grew by 10.8%.
For June 2014, the Department of Corrections (ADC)
inmate population increased to 41,778 inmates. The
inmate population was virtually unchanged May 2014,
and the inmate population increased 2.7% since June
2013.
There were 29,406 TANF recipients in the state in May,
representing a 1.5% increase in monthly caseloads over
April. This was the first monthly caseload increase since
August 2013. However, the year-over-year number of
TANF recipients has declined by (20)%. The statutory
lifetime limit on cash assistance is 24 months.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP),
formerly known as Food Stamps, provides assistance to
low-income households to purchase food. This May,
there were 1.0 million food stamp recipients in the state,
representing a 0.6% increase over April caseloads.
Compared to the same month last year, however, SNAP
participation has declined by (5.3)%.

8

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2014
Table 8

MONTHLY INDICATORS

Indicator
Arizona
Employment
- Regular Unemployment Rate
- Total Unemployment Rate (discouraged/underemployed)
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Unemployment Insurance Recipients
- Non-Farm Employment - Total
Manufacturing
Construction
- Average Weekly Hours, Private Sector
- Average Hourly Earnings, Private Sector
Sales
- Retail Taxable Sales
Motor Vehicles/Misc. Auto
Furniture/Home Furnishings
Building Material/Lawn & Garden
Building
- Residential Building Permits (12-month avg)
Single-family
Multi-family
- Greater Phoenix Home Sales
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Greater Phoenix Median Home Price
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Phoenix S&P/C Home Price Index (2000 = 100)
- Maricopa Pending Foreclosures
- Greater Phoenix Total Housing Inventory, (ARMLS)
Tourism
- Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers
- National Park Visitors
- State Park Visitors
- Revenue Per Available Hotel Room
General Measures
- Arizona Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Arizona Coincident Index (July 1992 = 100)
- Arizona Leading Index -- 6 month projected growth
- Arizona Personal Income
- Arizona Population
- State Debt Rating
Standards & Poor’s/Moody’s
Outlook
Agency Measures
- AHCCCS Recipients
Acute Care Traditional
Prop 204 Childless Adults
Other Prop 204
Adult Expansion
Kids Care I
Kids Care II
Long-Term Care – Elderly & DD
Emergency Services
- Department of Child Safety (DCS)
Annual Reports of Child Maltreatment (12-month total)
DCS Out-of-Home Children
Filled Caseworkers (1320 Budgeted)
- ADC Inmate Growth
- Department of Economic Security
- TANF Recipients
- SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients
- Judiciary Probation Caseload
Non-Maricopa
Maricopa County
United States
- Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2009 dollars, SAAR)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Leading Indicators Index (2004 = 100)
- Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100)
- Personal Consumption Price Index (2009 = 100)

Change
From
Prior Period

Time Period

Current
Value

June
1st Q 2014
May
June
June
June
June
May
May

6.9%
16.1%
22,003
42,214
2.51 million
156,500
121,500
34.3
$22.79

May
May
May

$859.7 million
$297.0 million
$351.4 million

(10.1)%
(9.5)%
7.2%

5.5%
5.3%
46.3%

May
May

17,663
8,085

(0.8)%
(1.2)%

2.9%
27.6%

May
May

7,935
1,279

2.7%
(8.1)%

(19.4)%
(20.5)%

May
May
April
June
June

$205,000
$127,000
145.42
6,476
27,708

0.0%
1.6%
0.4%
(4.7)%
(4.4)%

10.8%
4.1%
9.8%
(40.5)%
42.0%

April
April
March
May

3.59 million
965,980
304,575
$62.77

(10.9)%
2.6%
27.8%
(37.1)%

5.3%
(7.8)%
(2.1)%
8.9%

2nd Q 2014
May
May
st
1 Q 2014
July 2013

75.1
187.09
1.1%
$249.0 billion
6.63 million

9.0%
0.0%
(0.2)%
3.6%
N/A

7.9%
1.7%
(1.3)%
4.0%
1.2%

Dec 09/July 10

AA- / Aa3
Positive

N/A
N/A

N/A
N/A

July

1,513,762
954,290
235,478
159,675
24,560
2,012
0
55,458
82,289

3.0%
1.6%
9.1%
1.0%
24.1%
0.2%
0.0%
0.4%
4.4%

April 2014
April
June
June

44,596
16,107
1,283
41,778

0.3%
2.3%
35
.01%

1.8%
10.8%
43
2.7%

May
May

29,406
1,043,993

1.5%
0.6%

(20.0)%
(5.3)%

May
May

17,499
25,012

Nov 13

Change From
Prior Year

0.1%
0.1%
(20.1)%
7.3%
(1.5)%
0.6%
(0.3)%
(0.3)%
(0.8)%

(42)
(348)

(1.2)%
0.5%
(2.4)%
1.8%
1.7%
0.4%
(3.2)%
(1.2)%
0.0%

18.0%
7.3%
216.0%
8.2%
(71.5)%
(100.0)%
3.1%
20.8%

(249)
(316)

1st Q, 2014

$15.8 trillion

(2.9)%

1.5%

June
May
May
May

85.2
101.7
237.1
108.7

3.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%

3.8%
5.9%
2.1%
1.8%

9

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2014

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
Arizona Department of Administration - Report on
Performance Standards for Health and Dental Plans Pursuant to A.R.S. § 38-658B, the Arizona Department of
Administration (ADOA) submitted its reports on
performance standards for health and dental plans during
calendar year 2013. For 2013, health plans missed
anywhere from 1 to 8 performance measures in at least 1
month and dental plans missed 0 to 2 performance
measures. The number of performance measures varied
by vendor. In total, vendors paid $301,000 in penalties
during 2013 for missed standards in 2012. In comparison,
vendors paid $315,000 in penalties last year. (Rebecca
Perrera)
AHCCCS – Report on Graduate Medical Education
Residency Positions – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 36-2903.01, the
Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System (AHCCCS)
has submitted its annual report on the number of
residency positions funded by local, county, or tribal
governments. The agency indicates that these
contributions in FY 2013 provided partial funding for 1,503
residency positions at the following 11 hospitals: Maricopa
Medical Center, Kingman Regional Medical Center,
Tucson Medical Center, Banner Good Samaritan, Phoenix
Children’s Hospital, St. Joseph’s, Scottsdale HealthcareOsborne, Scottsdale Healthcare-Shea, University Medical
Center, University Medical Center-South Campus, and
Yuma Regional Medical Center.
The positions were funded by local contributions of $54.8
million and a federal match of $106.8 million, resulting in
$161.6 million total funding. (Andrew Smith)
AHCCCS – Report on Safety Net Care Pool Distribution
Notification – A FY 2014 General Appropriation Act allows
the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System
(AHCCCS) Administration to spend above the
appropriated level of $166 million for the Safety Net Care
Pool (SNCP) program, but requires AHCCCS to report if the
distributions exceed $166 million. In April 2014, AHCCCS
reported it would distribute $479.7 million in FY 2014
towards SNCP funding for hospitals. AHCCCS is now
reporting $488.0 million in total distributions, an $8.3 million
increase of funds from its last report.
The SNCP program uses voluntary monies from political
subdivisions to draw down Federal Funds at a 2:1 match.
The funds are then distributed to participating hospitals.
The SNCP program expired for all hospitals on January 1,
2014, excluding Phoenix Children’s Hospital (PCH) which
was granted a special waiver to continue its SNCP
program through December 31, 2014.
The additional $8.3 million SNCP distribution in FY 2014
consists of $3.0 million in Political Subdivision Funds from
the University of Arizona (the state match) and $5.3 million
in Federal Funds. AHCCCS will submit a final report on all

SNCP payments once final distributions are processed.
(Andrew Smith)
AHCCCS/Department of Health Services - Report on
Reconciliation Payments - Pursuant to the FY 2014
General Appropriation Act (Laws 2013, 1st Special
Session, Chapter 1), the Arizona Health Care Cost
Containment System (AHCCCS) and the Department of
Health Services (DHS) submitted their reports on
reconciliation payments and penalties received during
FY 2014. AHCCCS reports that during that 12-month
period they deposited $18.9 million into the General
Fund and used $47.9 million to offset Federal Medicaid
Authority expenditures from reconciliation payments
and penalties/sanctions. DHS reported that the total
amount of Medicaid reconciliation payments and
penalties in FY 2014 was $17.7 million. DHS will provide
more detailed payment information later this month.
DHS did not report on the breakout of those monies
between General Fund deposits and Federal
expenditure offsets.
AHCCCS and DHS limit financial risks and profits for
health plans and Regional Behavioral Health Authorities
(RBHAs) for most Medicaid populations (the maximum
percentage of loss and profit varies by Medicaid
population). Reconciliation payments are made to
health plans/RBHAs or the agency if losses or profits
exceed the set level. A penalty, or sanction, may be
assessed against health plans/RBHAs for the failure to
demonstrate compliance with their contractual
responsibilities.
Pursuant to A.R.S. § 35-142.01, AHCCCS and DHS are
required to deposit monies received for reconciliation
payments and penalties received into the General Fund
or the fund from which the appropriation was originally
made. (Andrew Smith)
Department of Child Safety (DCS) - Semi-Annual Report
on DCS - Pursuant to A.R.S. § 8-818, DCS has submitted
its semi-annual financial and program accountability
report covering the period of July 2013 through
December 2013. According to the report, turnover for
DCS case managers was approximately 21.9%.
Employee satisfaction decreased from 3.6 to a 3.4 rating
on a 5 point scale. The highlights of this report, covering
the first 6 months of FY 2014, are summarized below.
•

•

DCS reports that annualized case manager
turnover during July - December 2013 was 21.9%,
down from a 27.9% annualized rate in the last
report.
The percent of dependency cases denied or
dismissed in the last 6 months increased to 0.40%
from 0.14% in the previous 6 months, while the
percent of Office of Administrative Hearing’s
decisions affirming case findings decreased from

10

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2014

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
78.4% to 72.8%. The percent of complaints validated
by the Ombudsman increased from 20.3% to 25.6%.
•
The number of children in out-of-home family
placements increased from 11,684 in June to 12,005
in December, a 2.7% increase. The number of
congregate care placements decreased from 2,081
to 2,027, a (2.6)% decrease. DCS also reports that
from June to December the number of children
aged 0-3 in shelter care declined from 42 to 38, the
number of children aged 0-6 in group homes grew
from 50 to 58, and the number of children in shelter
care for more than 21 days grew from 772 to 868.
(Ben Beutler)
Department of Economic Security - Report on Arizona
Training Program at Coolidge (ATP-C) Campus and Other
Placements - A footnote in the FY 2014 General
Appropriation Act requires the Department of Economic
Security (DES) to report on placements of
developmentally-disabled (DD) clients into state-owned
Intermediate Care Facilities for Persons with Intellectual
Disabilities (ICF-ID) or at the ATP-C campus in FY 2014. DES
reports that there were no new permanent placements at
the ATP-C campus, but that there was 1 new placement
into a state-operated ICF-ID in Phoenix in FY 2014. Private
facilities did not respond to a request for placement due
to significant medical and behavioral needs of the
person. (Tom Ritland)
Department of Education – Report on Federal Monies for
English Learners – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-756.10,
paragraph 3, the Department of Education (ADE)
recently submitted a report that includes an itemized list
of all federal monies received by the department for
English language learners in FY 2014. ADE received $15.5
million in federal Title III (Language Instruction for Limited
English Proficient and Immigrant Students) funding for FY
2014. Of that amount, approximately $14.4 million was
distributed directly to school districts and charter schools.
The remaining $1.1 million was used for state
administration, technical assistance, and to meet federal
set-aside requirements for immigrant education. Also
during FY 2014, school districts and charter schools
received $5.0 million in reallocated program monies from
FY 2013. (Steve Schimpp)
Arizona Board of Regents – Report on University Retention
and Graduation Rates – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-1626, the
Arizona Board of Regents (ABOR) is required to submit an
annual report on retention and graduation rates at each
university campus. Prior to 2013, ABOR reported retention
and graduation rates based on the federal government’s
definition, which tracks the outcomes of first-time, fulltime, degree-seeking students after 1 year for retention
rates and after 6 years for graduation rates.
ABOR reports that this methodology captures less than
half of Arizona students who are making progress toward

a degree. The federal definition excludes outcomes of
students who begin at an Arizona university, but transfer
to another in-state or out-of-state institution to continue
their education.
•

•

Fall 2013 retention rates reflect the percentage of
first-time, full-time, degree-seeking students who
initially enrolled in fall 2012 and who re-enrolled in
the same university in fall 2013.
o Arizona State University (ASU) 84%; Northern
Arizona University (NAU) 72%; and the University
of Arizona (UA) 82%.
Six-year graduation rates reflect the percentage of
first-time, full-time, degree-seeking students who
received their degree within 6 years of their initial
fall enrollment at the same university. The 2014
report shows the percentage of students who
enrolled in fall 2007 who graduated from the same
university within 6 years.
o ASU 59%; NAU 49%; UA 61%.

Rather than using the federal definition, ABOR utilizes a
metric entitled the Success and Progress Rate, which
shows the outcomes of the same cohort of students
who graduated at any higher education institution, in
addition to those students who are still enrolled in
higher education after 6 years. The 2014 report shows
the percentage of students who enrolled in an Arizona
University in fall 2007 who either graduated from the
same university within 6 years, graduated from another
university within 6 years, or are still enrolled in higher
education, as shown below:
•
ASU 81%; NAU 77%; UA 86%.
(Art Smith)
Universities – Performance Funding Report – Pursuant to
a footnote in the FY 2015 General Appropriation Act
(Laws 2014, Chapter 18, Section 94), the Arizona Board
of Regents (ABOR) is to report to the Joint Legislative
Budget Committee (JLBC) by July 1, 2014 on the final
allocation of performance funding for each university.
ABOR received $5.0 million in FY 2015 for a
performance-based funding model. According to
ABOR, they allocated $2.7 million to Arizona State
University, $1.1 million to Northern Arizona University,
and $1.2 million to the University of Arizona. These
amounts are the same as the FY 2014 performance
funding allocations. (Art Smith)

11

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2014

June Spending
June 2014 General Fund spending of $532.4 million was
$(87.8) million lower than June 2013. Year-to-date,
spending is $8.81 billion. The individual agency estimates
do not include “13th month” expenditures. Once this
adjustment is made, Department of Health Services
spending will increase significantly.
(See Tables 9 & 10).

•

Year-to-date, the Department of Education has spent
$212.2 million more than the prior year due to
increased enrollment, increased per-pupil costs, and
school district charter conversions. The enacted
budget included a $47.0 million supplemental to the
department in FY 2014 due to increased funding
requirements.

•

Department of Economic Security expenditures are
$68.1 million greater through June. The agency
received significant funding increases in FY 2014 for
child safety staff and services.

Table 9
General Fund Spending ($ in Millions)
Change From

YTD Change

June 14

June 13

Year-to-Date

from FY 13

AHCCCS

141.4

(13.9)

1,220.7

(54.1)

Corrections

84.6

(0.1)

956.6

20.3

Economic Security

3.3

(2.1)

695.4

68.1

Agency

Education

227.9

(59.6)

3,673.0

212.2

Health Serv ices

(5.6)

(20.4)

542.0

(39.1)

1.9

(0.5)

50.5

7.1

School Facilities Board

0.1

(0.0)

191.6

17.9

Univ ersities

44.2

8.6

735.5

31.9

Public Safety

Leaseback Debt Serv ice

0.0

0.0

84.1

0.0

Other

34.7

(0.0)

604.7

77.0

Total

532.4

(87.8)

8,754.2

341.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

(200.0)

60.0

N/A

60.0

N/A

592.4

(87.8)

8,814.2

141.4

Budget Stabilization
Fund Deposit
Estimated "13th Month"
Expenditures
Grand Total

12

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2014

Table 10

General Fund Spending
($ in Thousands)
Agency
Dept. of Admin./Automation Projects Fund
ADOA – Sale/Leaseback Debt Service
Office of Administrative Hearings
Department of Agriculture
AHCCCS
Attorney General
AZ Capital Post Conviction Public
Defender
State Board of Charter Schools
AZ Commerce Authority
Community Colleges
Corporation Commission
Department of Corrections
County Funding
AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind
Department of Economic Security
Department of Education
DEMA
DEQ – WQARF
Office of Equal Opportunity
State Board of Equalization
Board of Executive Clemency
Department of Financial Institutions
Department of Fire, Bldg and Life Safety
State Forester
Arizona Geological Survey
Governor/OSPB
Department of Health Services
Arizona Historical Society
Prescott Historical Society of AZ
Independent Redistricting Comm.
Commission of Indian Affairs
Department of Insurance
Judiciary
Supreme/Superior Court
Court of Appeals
Department of Juvenile Corrections

June 14
672.3
64.1
886.8
141,399.0
1,709.1
-

Change from
June 13
(370.4)
(5.5)
66.9
(13,887.4)
(1,227.3)
(0.1)

Year-to-Date
36,517.8
84,119.8
862.2
8,194.9
1,220,713.6
22,012.6
-

YTD Change
from FY 13
8,411.0
34.4
311.7
(54,073.7)
(1,234.1)
(4.4)

42.9

(18.1)

779.2

15.3

2,625.0
42.1
84,563.3
867.4
3,283.1
227,851.0
1,657.6
4.7
38.1
56.4
284.1
140.3
211.7
70.5
656.3
(5,562.7)
242.1
97.3
66.3
2.8
415.9

(8.9)
(55.9)
713.0
(2,137.2)
(59,555.8)
1,066.3
(17.1)
(10.9)
(16.2)
1.4
82.7
1.0
4.5
(660.9)
(20,358.9)
47.8
48.6
(164.8)
(1.3)
(18.0)

31,500.0
69,513.4
511.0
956,589.9
7,150.5
22,021.9
695,433.6
3,672,975.6
8,383.4
7,000.0
188.5
508.9
809.0
3,001.5
1,912.9
7,349.1
941.4
8,825.7
542,035.2
3,152.4
758.2
1,299.3
53.7
5,275.4

580.6
(89.0)
20,333.7
7,150.5
992.3
68,106.1
212,181.8
707.1
10.9
1.9
(11.6)
65.8
189.9
243.1
69.7
(499.1)
(39,085.1)
90.5
87.7
(1,289.4)
1.4
312.5

3,610.3
1,154.2
3,783.7

(999.2)
(94.5)
(71.2)

94,540.2
14,060.2
39,547.3

677.3
201.6
(1,380.3)

13

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JULY 2014

Table 10 (Continued)

Agency
State Land Department
Law Enforcement Merit System
Legislature
Auditor General
House of Representatives
Joint Legislative Budget Comm.
Legislative Council
Senate
Mine Inspector
Nav. Streams & Adjudication
State Board of Nursing
Occupational Safety and Health Review
Phoenix Convention Center
Pioneers’ Home
Comm. for Postsecondary Ed.
Department of Public Safety
Public Safety Personnel Retirement System
Arizona Department of Racing
Radiation Regulatory Agency
Real Estate Department
Department of Revenue
School Facilities Board
Secretary of State
Tax Appeals Board
Office of Tourism
Department of Transportation
Commission on Uniform State Laws
Universities
Board of Regents
Arizona State University
Northern Arizona University
University of Arizona
Department of Veteran Services
Department of Water Resources
Department of Weights & Measures
Other - JP Salaries Distribution
Other - Dept. of Corrections Capital
Other
Total
Budget Stabilization Fund Deposit
Estimated "13th Month" Expenditures
Grand Total

June 14
1,484.7
-

Change from
June 13
1,445.9
(5.5)

Year-to-Date
12,375.3
-

YTD Change
from FY 13
11,170.7
(69.0)

(385.4)
909.5
160.5
418.4
605.4
103.8
48.8
0.4
1,873.1
1.2
66.1
348.1
4,734.9
117.5
798.3
18.3
(2.3)
-

(184.5)
(16.5)
26.9
(21.4)
(14.7)
(6.7)
40.9
(1.0)
(21.8)
(452.1)
(31.8)
5.8
23.0
(827.5)
(24.4)
(393.5)
1.4
(1,221.2)
(2.3)
-

17,041.5
12,500.8
2,025.7
6,357.1
8,330.3
1,185.5
206.8
150.0
2.3
20,449.0
1,605.1
1,396.8
50,484.5
5,000.0
1,985.1
1,465.4
2,587.1
45,527.6
191,649.4
11,461.3
261.0
8,112.9
4.1
75.0

1,328.8
650.3
146.5
(360.4)
300.4
38.9
88.1
150.0
1.3
14,854.0
464.6
7,127.7
5,000.0
(28.1)
37.0
20.8
2,120.9
17,944.0
(4,776.2)
4.9
2,477.4
(16.9)
75.0

320.8
19,639.0
6,562.5
17,694.4
351.6
2,041.8
157.5
158.9
3,242.2
2.7
532,408.5
60,000.0
592,408.5

221.4
4,125.3
638.3
3,648.9
43.8
188.5
86.2
64.0
2,555.5
2.7
(87,753.5)
N/A
(87,753.5)

21,890.7
326,259.1
109,245.0
278,086.3
5,140.8
11,896.8
1,283.6
1,000.8
28,436.0
135.4
8,754,152.3
60,000.0
8,814,152.3

(15,298.3)
28,976.6
7,659.8
10,523.8
(232.5)
1,027.3
(219.5)
(53.9)
27,126.8
64.2
341,435.1
(200,000.0)
N/A
141,435.1

Tracking Arizona’s Recovery
July 2014
Appendix A
Slide:
2……Total Non-Farm Employment
3……Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector
4……Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
5……State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
6……State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting
Category
7……Residential Building Permits
8……Economic Activity Index

1

JLBC

Total Non-Farm Employment
2,800

Thousands of Jobs

2,700

2,513,700 jobs
(June 2014)

2,600

2,500

2,400

2,300

2,200

JLBC

Not seasonally adjusted

2011 2012

JUL

JAN

JAN

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

2010

JAN

JUL

2009

JAN

JUL

2008

JAN

JUL

2007

JAN

JUL

2006

JAN

JUL

2005

JAN

JUL

2004

JAN

JUL

2003

JAN

JUL

2002

JAN

JUL

2001

JAN

JAN

2,100

2013 2014

2

2001

JLBC

2002

2003

2004 2005

2006

2007 2008

Not seasonally adjusted

2009

2010

2011 2012

JUL

JAN

30,000

JAN

35,000

JUL

Jul-13

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jan 07

2013

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr 12

Jan 12

Oct 11

July 11

Apr 11

Jan 11

Oct 10

July 10

Apr 10

Jan 10

Oct 09

July 09

Apr 09

Jan 09

Oct 08

July 08

Apr 08

Jan 08

Oct 07

July 07

Apr 07

$21

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr 12

Jan 12

Oct 11

July 11

Apr 11

Jan 11

Oct 10

July 10

Apr 10

Jan 10

Oct 09

July 09

Apr 09

Jan 09

Oct 08

July 08

Apr 08

Jan 08

Oct 07

July 07

Apr 07

Jan 07

Year Over Year Growth (%)

9%
7%

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JLBC

JUL

JAN

Total Monthly Claims for UI Benefits

$ / Hour

Average Hourly Earnings – Private Sector
$25

$24

$23

$22

$22.79 / Hour
(May 2014)

$20

$19

11%

0% Y/Y Growth
(May 2014)

5%
3%

1%
-1%

-3%

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

3

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

45,000

40,000

22,003 Claims
(May 2014)

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

2014

4

Jan 07

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

Jul-13

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

$75

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr 12

Jan 12

Oct 11

July 11

Apr 11

Jan 11

Oct 10

July 10

Apr 10

Jan 10

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

Oct 09

July 09

Apr 09

Jan 09

Oct 08

July 08

Apr 08

Jan 08

Oct 07

July 07

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr 12

Jan 12

Oct 11

July 11

Apr 11

Jan 11

Oct 10

July 10

Apr 10

Jan 10

Oct 09

July 09

Apr 09

Jan 09

Oct 08

July 08

Apr 08

Jan 08

Oct 07

July 07

Apr 07

Jan 07

Oct 06

July 06

Year Over Year Growth (%)

Apr-14

*Jan-14

JLBC

Apr 07

July 06
Oct 06
Jan 07
Apr 07
July 07
Oct 07
Jan 08
Apr 08
July 08
Oct 08
Jan 09
Apr 09
July 09
Oct 09
Jan 10
Apr 10
July 10
Oct 10
Jan 11
Apr 11
July 11
Oct 11
Jan 12
Apr 12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

Oct 06

$ in Millions

July 06
Oct 06
Jan 07
Apr 07
July 07
Oct 07
Jan 08
Apr 08
July 08
Oct 08
Jan 09
Apr 09
July 09
Oct 09
Jan 10
Apr 10
July 10
Oct 10
Jan 11
Apr 11
July 11
Oct 11
Jan 12
Apr 12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
* Jan-14
Apr-14

$125

Apr-13

JLBC
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%

July 06

Year Over Year Growth (%)

$ in Millions

State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
$225

$200

$175

$150

$171.7 million
(June 2014)

$100

4.0% Y/Y Growth
(June 2014)

* January 2014 collections reflect the reclassification of approximately $40
million of revenue from other tax categories to retail collections

5

State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting Category
$100

$41.2 million
(June 2014)

$50

$25

$0

(8.5)% Y/Y Growth
(June 2014)

6

Residential Building Permits
100,000

Building Permits

90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000

Single Family Unit - 17,663 Permits
Multi-Family Unit - 8,085 Permits
(May 2014)

50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2010

JUL

JAN

JAN

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

2009

2008

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2007

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2006

2005

JLBC

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JAN

0

2012

2011

2013

7

12-Month Moving Sum

Economic Activity Index
210

187.1 Index Value
(May 2014)

Coincident Index Value

200
190
180
170
160
150

2001

JLBC

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

JAN

JUL

JAN

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2004

JAN

JUL

2003

JAN

JUL

2002

JAN

JAN

JUL

JAN

140

2013

Source: Coincident Index – Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Combines four state-level indicators
(employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary
disbursements) to summarize current economic conditions.

2014

8

2014