JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights

June 2014

Summary
1716 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Phone:
(602) 926-5491
Fax:
(602) 926-5416

May General Fund revenue collections
totaled $647.3 million. Base revenues, which
exclude one-time adjustments, were 7.4%
above May 2013. The year-over-year change
excludes the temporary 1-cent sales tax which
expired at the end of May 2013.
Overall May General Fund collections were
$(11.9) million below the enacted budget
forecast. Year-to-date base revenues are 2.1%
higher than FY 2013, and total General Fund
collections through May are $(55.4) million
below forecast.

www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

A decline in individual income tax withholding
was the primary reason for the May forecast
shortfall. Withholding fell by (0.8)% in May.

Operating Financing Requirements
During the past month, the Executive officially
revised the terms of the $1.4 billion operating
debt financing, so as to avoid a mandatory
early repayment.
In order to solve the FY 2010 budget shortfall,
the state raised $1.4 billion through: 1) a
sale/leaseback agreement for existing state
properties; and 2) the issuance of lottery
revenue bonds. Because these transactions
were issued as a tax-exempt deficit financing
mechanism to pay for state operational
expenses, the federal government required
the state to agree to either of the following
requirements:


“Year-to-date
base revenues
are 2.1% higher
than FY 2013,
and total
General Fund
collections
through May are
$(55.4) million
below forecast.”

In comparison to revenue of $647.3 million,
May 2014 spending was $537.5 million, which is
a decrease of $(23.1) million from the prior
year.
Including the state’s FY 2014 beginning
balance, during the fiscal year General Fund
revenues of $8.35 billion have been offset by
$8.22 billion of expenditures.
The state’s fiscal health can also be measured
by the operating fund balance. The state
pays its bills out of the operating fund
balance, which consists of the General Fund
and certain dedicated funds. The operating
balance is at $2.4 billion as of mid-May 2014.
In addition, the state’s Budget Stabilization
Fund has a balance of $455.1 million.



Working Capital Surplus Limitation – Limits
the state’s total cash reserve to 5% of
General Fund spending for that fiscal year.
Beginning with the FY 2015 balance, excess
cash balances would be used for
mandatory retirement of the financing,
which would start in FY 2017.
Investment Yield Restriction – Limits the
investment return on a portion of the
state’s operating balance to
approximately 4%. The state would be
required to restrict the yield on the unpaid
balance, which is still near $1.4 billion.

When the financing was originally issued, the
state agreed to the Working Capital Surplus
limitation. Based on the projected FY 2015
balance, the state would have to start paying

Table of Contents

This report has been
prepared for the Arizona
Legislature by the Joint
Legislative Budget
Committee Staff on
June 20, 2014.

Summary

 AHCCCS – Health Insurance Exchange ....... 10

 Operating Financing Requirements ................1

 DCS – Foster Care Medicaid Report ............. 10

 Child Safety Staff Report ....................................2

 DCS – Program Accountability Report ......... 10

May Revenues .........................................................3

 EEC – Budget Stabilization Fund Report ....... 11

Economic Indicators ..............................................5

 DES – Unemployment Trust Fund Status ........ 11

JLBC Meeting ...........................................................8

 ADE – Budget Status Report............................ 11

JCCR Meeting ..........................................................9

 ADE – Empowerment Scholarship

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
 ADOA – State Surplus Materials Report .........10

Accounts ................................................ 11
May Spending ....................................................... 12
Tracking Arizona’s Recovery ............. Appendix A

2

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2014

Summary (Continued)
back more than $100 million of debt in FY 2017. As a
result, the Executive just completed the conversion to
the Investment Yield Restriction in May 2014. The
selection of this limitation is irrevocable for the duration
of the financing.
Because the state is no longer subject to the mandatory
repayment requirements of the Working Capital Surplus
Limitation, the operating financing is not subject to
prepayment by the state until FY 2020.
Child Safety Staff Report
Pursuant to statute, the Department of Child Safety
(DCS) has submitted the May report on its progress in
hiring child safety staff.

Direct Line Child Safety Staff - The Legislature authorized
DCS to hire 126 additional direct line child safety staff as
part of the agencies’ FY 2014 supplemental
appropriation. Since January, the number of direct line
child safety staff (caseworkers, caseworkers in training,
and hotline staff) has increased by 58 FTE Positions to a
level of 1,248 in May. In the last month, the number of
direct line child safety staff has increased by 5. DCS has
also hired 79 more individuals who will begin their
employment by June and then enter training. DCS has
funding to hire 1,320 total direct line child safety staff in
FY 2014.
Non-Direct Line Child Safety Staff - The Legislature also
authorized DCS to hire 66 non-direct line child safety
staff. Since January, non-direct line child safety staff has
increased by 45 to 1,106. In May, staffing decreased by
(12) FTE Positions.

T a ble 1

Change in the Division of Child Safety & Family Services
Staff since January 2014
Change
Direct Line Staff

March

April

Caseworkers
Hotline Staff 1/
Staff in Training

1,006
76

1,003
75

995
76

12
6

151

165

177

40

Subtotal - Direct Line
Non-Direct Line Staff
Asst. Program Managers
Unit Superv isors
Case Aides
Other Non-Direct Line Staff
Subtotal - Non-Direct Line
Grand Total

1,233

1,243

1,248

58

34
179
221
678

34
183
228
673

1,112
2,345

1,118
2,361

1/ Excludes 20 tempo rary staff
2/ There are an estimated 180 unit secretaries included in this figure.

May

32
182
231
661 2/
1,106
2,354

since January

(4)
14
20
15
45
103

3

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2014

May Revenues
Table 2

General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions)

May
Year-to-Date

FY 2014
Collections
$ 647.3
$ 7,459.4

Difference From
Budget Forecast
$ (11.9)
$ (55.4)

Difference
From FY 2013
$ (57.9)
$ (645.9)

Sales Tax collections of $336.6 million were 4.2% above
May of last year and approximately equal to the forecast
for the month. The year-over-year change amounts
exclude the temporary 1-cent sales tax which expired at
the end of May 2013.

May estimated and final payments were (23.1)% below
last year and $(2.9) million below forecast. Year-todate, payments are down (3.8)% compared to the prior
year, but are $6.1 million above the January forecast.

Year-to-date sales tax collections are 5.7% above the
prior year and are $5.4 million above the January
forecast.

May refunds were (49.7)% less than last year, resulting in
a $14.9 million forecast gain. Year-to-date, refunds are
1.1% greater than the prior year, and are $37.3 million
higher than the January forecast.

Table 3 displays the May growth rates for the largest sales
tax categories.
Retail and contracting together account for over 60% of
all sales tax revenues. May retail, which reflects April
sales, increased by 7.6%. Year-to-date, retail sales are
up 8.1%.
Contracting has shown double digit increases every
month through the first 3 quarters of the current fiscal
year, but has tapered off over the last 2 months, with an
April increase of 4.4%, and May at 6.4%. Year-to-date,
contracting has increased by 13.5% over the prior year.
Table 3

Sales Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

Retail
Contracting
Use
Restaurant & Bar

May
7.6%
6.4%
(0.5)%
5.6%

YTD
8.1%
13.5%
(8.9)%
4.6%

Individual Income Tax net revenues were $267.3 million in
May, which was $38.1 million above the prior year.
Collections were $(9.3) million below the forecast for the
month. Year-to-date, revenue is $35.2 million above the
prior year, and is $(41.1) million below the January
forecast.
The May increase of 16.6% compared to the prior year
brings the year-to-date increase to a modest 1.1%.
As indicated in Table 4, withholding decreased by (0.8)%
for the month and was $(21.3) million below forecast.
May results further reduce withholding tax collections for
the fiscal year to 2.8% over the prior year. This year-todate amount is $(9.9) million below the January
forecast.

Table 4
Individual Income Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year
Withholding
Estimated +
Final Payments
Refunds

May
(0.8)%

YTD
2.8%

(23.1)%
(49.7)%

(3.8)%
1.1%

Corporate Income Tax net collections were $28.6 million
in May, which is $(2.1) million less than May of the prior
year. Collections have been below the prior year in 6 of
the preceding 11 months of the current fiscal year.
Year-to-date, collections are down (11.0)% compared to
the prior year, and are $(26.3) million below the January
forecast.
Insurance Premium Tax revenues were $42.3 million in
May, which is $1.4 million greater than May of the prior
year and $10.8 million above forecast.
Year-to-date, collections have increased 4.8% compared
to the prior year, and are $5.4 million above the January
forecast.
Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) revenues consist of
gasoline and use fuel (diesel) tax, motor carrier fees
(commercial carriers), vehicle license tax and
registration fees, and various other fees. HURF
collections of $101.6 million in May were up $249,200, or
0.2%, compared to May of last year. Year-to-date
revenues are 2.6% above collections in the prior year,
and are $17.6 million above forecast.

4
Table 5

General Fund Revenue:
Change from Previous Year and January Forecast
May 2014
Current Month

FY 2014 YTD (Eleven Months)

Change From
Actual

May 2013

May 2014

Amount

Change from
January Forecast

Percent

Amount

Actual

Percent

May 2013

May 2014

Amount

January Forecast
Percent

Amount

Percent

Taxes
Sales and Use
Income - Individual
- Corporate

$336,552,864

$13,708,906

267,284,787

38,096,596

28,601,435

(2,133,969)

$3,688,461,200

$198,003,222

16.6

4.2 %

(9,267,759)

(3.4)

3,102,171,808

35,188,324

(6.9)

(7,659,732)

18,388,895

7,212,431

64.5

5,445,466

(16.6)

0

0.0

22,721,891

1,301,341

6.1

1,313,168

15.1

0

0.0

28,909,728

19,974

0.1

3.3

10,764,079

34.2

4.8

Luxury - Tobacco

1,300,000

(259,040)

2,300,000

302,564

42,265,579

1,362,498

0

0

42,120

2,442

$680,686,381

$51,893,565

Other Taxes
Sub-Total Taxes

-6.2
8.3 %

0
(32,880)
($5,711,589)

331,397,995

15,258,814

--

0

0

(43.8)

502,220

(0.8) %

$7,670,734,391

(1,020,517)
$196,710,826

(11.0)

$5,441,136
(41,059,418)

478,180,653

53.3

Estate

1.1

17.0

813,568

(59,252,764)

5.7 %

(21.1)

2,339,596

Insurance Premium

0.0 %

339,596

Property
- Liquor

$145,107

-(67.0)
2.6 %

(26,296,637)

(503,265)
5,371,409
0
(1,022,780)
($51,310,920)

0.1 %
(1.3)
(5.2)
42.1
6.1
(1.7)
1.6
-(67.1)
(0.7) %

Other Revenue
Lottery

7,896,525

(1,304,675)

(14.2)

(1,603,475)

(16.9)

47,103,393

(1,281,907)

(2.6)

(1,683,475)

License, Fees and Permits

1,724,510

(827,871)

(32.4)

(1,275,490)

(42.5)

25,369,400

(920,561)

(3.5)

(2,648,942)

(9.5)

--

5,780

(6,813,476)

(99.9)

(4,006,061)

(99.9)

Interest
Sales and Services
Other Miscellaneous
Disproportionate Share
Transfers and Reimbursements
Sub-Total Other Revenue
TOTAL BASE REVENUE

3,654

581,539

--

3,654

(3.5)

1,808,946

(179,810)

(9.0)

(691,054)

(27.6)

25,293,108

(312,633)

(1.2)

(2,174,448)

(7.9)

607,874

(1,552,373)

(71.9)

(1,892,126)

(75.7)

14,280,550

(10,413,040)

(42.2)

(2,683,266)

(15.8)

0

0

667,223

(1,091,126)

$12,708,732

($4,374,316)

$693,395,113

$47,519,249

-(62.1)

0
(1,332,777)

--

0

(66.6)

16,966,785

(14,210,920)
($33,952,537)

(25.6) %

($6,791,268)

(34.8) %

$129,019,016

7.4 %

($12,502,857)

(1.8) %

$7,799,753,407

0

$162,758,289

-(45.6)

0
(14,181,968)

-(45.5)

(20.8) %

($27,378,160)

(17.5) %

2.1 %

($78,689,080)

(1.0) %

Other Adjustments
Urban Revenue Sharing
One-Time Transfers
Sales Tax - 1¢ Increase
Sub-Total Other Adjustments
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE

(46,709,330)

(514,291,863)

(43,506,493)

9.2

0

0.0

44,279

(20,455,721)

(99.8)

44,279

--

165,724,745

109,224,745

193.3

15,033,184

10.0

533,084

(81,066,056)

(99.3)

533,084

--

8,237,401

(874,418,005)

(99.1)

8,237,401

--

577,363

(1.2) %

23,270,585

(6.4) %

(46,131,967)
$647,263,146

(3,910,660)

9.1

0

0.0

(105,432,437)

-- %

(340,329,717)

($57,913,188)

(8.2) %

($11,925,494)

(1.8) %

$7,459,423,690

0.2 %

($764,663)

(0.7) %

$1,135,621,101

(808,699,753)

-- %

($645,941,465)

(8.0) %

($55,418,495)

(0.7) %

2.6 %

$17,633,553

1.6 %

Non-General Funds
Highway User Revenue Fund

$101,630,557

$249,151

$28,702,736

5

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2014

Recent Economic Indicators
NATIONAL
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau
of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of (1.0)% in
the first quarter of 2014. This represents the first decrease
in GDP since the first quarter of 2011. The first quarter
estimate was a significant deceleration from the 2.6%
growth in the fourth quarter of 2013. The slowdown was
primarily due to decreases in inventory investment,
nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and state and
local government spending while consumer spending
increased at a small rate. A portion of the slowdown in
the first quarter may be the result of unusually harsh
winter weather and a concentration of inventory
investment in the fourth quarter of 2014.

Arizona’s coincident index increased by 0.2% compared
to the prior month. Since May 2013, the Arizona index
has grown by 2.1%, which ranks 38th in the country. See
Appendix A – Tracking Arizona’s Recovery for additional
historical information.
Housing
The total housing inventory in the Greater Phoenix area
dropped by (2.2)% in May to 28,979. The inventory,
however, is 46.8% higher than last year.
In the Metropolitan Phoenix area, the median price of
a single family home continues to be relatively stable
at $204,900 in April. The price is, however, 13.0% higher
than April of last year.

The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence
Index increased 1.6% in May and 11.7% since May 2013.
The monthly increase restores a portion index’s (2.6)%
decrease in April. Recent gains were primarily driven by
the index’s component that measures consumer views
of current job and economic circumstances.

The housing construction recovery continues to be
slow. The 3-month average of single-family building
permits of 1,461 is a (6.5)% decrease from last year.

The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Economic Index
increased by 0.4% in April and 5.8% since April 2013. Of
the index’s 10 components, 6 increased during the
month while 4 decreased. Improvements in building
permit and credit components lead the increase, more
than making up for slightly negative contributions in the
average workweek, initial unemployment claims,
manufacturing orders, and durable goods orders
components.

On the other hand, the 3-month average of
multi-family building permits has grown significantly
since last year. The 1,310 multi-family building permits is
225% above 2013.

Consumer prices, as measured by the U.S. Consumer
Price Index (CPI), increased 0.4% in May and 2.1%
above May 2013 levels. The monthly increase was the
largest since February of 2013 and included a 0.5% rise in
prices for food, 0.9% in energy, and 0.3% for all other
items. Year-over-year growth in prices have steadily
increased from a reading of 1.1% in February to the 2.1%
current reading. Annual inflation is expected to
continue influencing the pace at which the Federal
Reserve Bank reduces its monetary stimulus to the
economy. The Bank generally aims to maintain annual
inflation of 2% over the medium term.
ARIZONA
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s coincident
index gauges current economic activity in each state.
The index combines 4 indicators: employment, average
hours worked in manufacturing, unemployment rate, and
inflation-adjusted wages.

See Appendix A – Tracking Arizona’s Recovery for
historical information.

Employment
The state’s nonfarm employment growth has
weakened over the last few months and the
Department of Administration’s job report for May
showed further weakening in the labor market.
Employers shed (15,000) jobs between April and May,
the largest month-over-month May job loss since 2009.
Almost 95% (or 14,200) of these job losses occurred in
the government sector, especially among state and
local government employees.
By way of comparison, the average job loss in the prior
10 years was (1,600). The reason for the record large
reduction (available data goes back to 1990) in
government employment is not yet clear. One
plausible explanation is that some of the job losses in
state and local government employment that typically
occur in June may have been shifted to May. Next
month’s employment report may shed further light on
this issue. The private sector, which typically expands its
payrolls in May, shed (800) jobs, the first such job loss in
4 years.
Compared to May 2013, total nonfarm employment
increased by 1.2%, or 31,000 jobs. This was a significant

6

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2014

Recent Economic Indicators (Continued)
deceleration from April’s year-over-year growth rate of
1.7%, or 43,600 net new jobs. May’s year-over-year job
gain was the smallest since July 2011.

The state also opted to expand adult Medicaid
coverage to 133% of FPL. Enrollment increased by 3,470
in June and now totals 19,789 individuals.

As noted earlier, it is likely that at least some of the
large job loss in May is due to a timing issue (state and
local government education employment losses that
typically occur in June were shifted to May). This could
explain why the year-over-year decline in private
sector employment growth in May was less
pronounced than overall nonfarm employment. (Yearover-year private sector employment growth fell from
2.2% in April to 2.0% in May.)

There were 28,966 TANF recipients in the state in April, a
monthly caseload decrease of (1.9)%. Year-over-year,
the number of TANF recipients has declined by (21.4)%.

In terms of specific industries, the construction sector lost
(200) jobs in May over April. For the first time since June
2011, construction employment decreased on a yearover-year basis (-0.2% or (900) jobs). All of the job losses
occurred in residential and non-residential construction.
Heavy construction (which includes road construction)
and specialty trades added jobs. The manufacturing
sector added 1,600 jobs in May over April, the largest
month-over-month increase since February 2007. Year
over year, manufacturing employment increased by
0.6% (or +900 jobs) in May.
Arizona’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell by
(0.1)% in May, going from 6.9% in April to 6.8% in May.
May’s jobless rate of 6.8% was the lowest since August
2008 when the unemployment rate was 6.6%. For the
nation as a whole, the unemployment rate remained
unchanged at 6.3% in May.
State Agency Data
At the beginning of June, the total AHCCCS caseload
was 1.47 million members. Since the federal health
care expansion in January, the overall AHCCCS
population has grown by 211,195 members.
The traditional acute care AHCCCS population of
lower income children and their parents, grew by
15,057 in June to a level of 939,643. This level
represents an increase of 1.6% since last month and
6.0% since last year. This growth, in part, is related to
the January 2014 federal expansion to 133% of the
federal poverty level (FPL).
Since January, childless adults have been again
eligible for coverage. In the last month, the number of
childless adults increased by 18,486. Since December,
the childless adult population has increased by 147,972
to reach a level of 215,742.

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP),
formerly known as Food Stamps, provides assistance to
low-income households to purchase food. In April, there
were a total 1.0 million food stamp recipients in the
state, a 0.1% increase over the prior month. Compared
to the same month last year, food stamp participation
was down by (5.6)%.
The 3-month average count of the Department of
Corrections (ADC) inmate population increased to
41,509 inmates in May 2014. Relative to the prior 3month period, the population has increased by 59
inmates. Compared to a year ago, the population has
increased by 1,178 inmates, or 2.9%.

7

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2014

Recent Economic Indicators

(Continued)

Table 6

ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Indicator
Arizona
- Unemployment Rate (SA)
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Unemployment Insurance Recipients
- Non-Farm Employment - Total
Manufacturing
Construction
- Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing
- Contracting Tax Receipts (3-month average)
- Retail Sales Tax Receipts (3-month average)
- Residential Building Permits (3-month moving average)
Single-family
Multi-family
- Greater Phoenix Home Sales
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Greater Phoenix Median Home Price
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Greater Phoenix S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
(Jan. 2000 = 100)
- Foreclosure Activity, Maricopa County
Pending Foreclosures (Active Notices)
- Greater Phoenix Total Housing Inventory, (ARMLS)
- Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers
- Revenue Per Available Hotel Room
- Arizona Average Natural Gas Price
($ per thousand cubic feet)
- Arizona Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Arizona Coincident Index (July 1992 = 100)
- Arizona Leading Index -- 6 month projected growth rate
- Arizona Personal Income
- Arizona Population
- AHCCCS Recipients
Acute Care Traditional
Prop 204 Childless Adults
Other Prop 204
Adult Expansion
Kids Care I
Kids Care II
Long-Term Care – Elderly & DD
Emergency Services
- TANF Recipients
- SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients
- ADC Inmate Growth (3-month average)
- Probation Caseload
Non-Maricopa
Maricopa County
United States
- Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2009 dollars, SAAR)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Leading Indicators Index (2004 = 100)
- U.S. Semiconductor Billings (3-month moving average)
- Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100)

Time Period

Current Value

Change From
Prior Period

May
April
April
May
May
May
April
March-May
March-May

6.8%
27,528
38,892
2.55 million
156,100
121,700
40.9
$38.4 million
$172.6 million

(0.1) %
33.8%
8.8%
(0.6)%
1.0%
(0.2)%
(0.2)%
3.6%
1.9%

(1.2)%
(0.1)%
(6.1)%
1.2%
0.6%
(0.7)%
(1.7)%
7.8%*
5.9%*

Feb-Apr
Feb-Apr

1,461
1,310

7.4%
19.8%

(6.5)%
224.9%

April
April

7,728
1,392

9.4%
18.4%

(16.3)%
(11.6)%

April
April
March

$204,900
$125,000
144.81

0.2%
(7.2)%
0.5%

13.0%
4.3%
11.1%

May

4,487

(4.4)%

(49.2)%

May
March
March
March

28,979
3.59 million
$99.86
$5.74

(2.2)%
(11.0)%
17.8%
(6.2)%

46.8%
5.3%
10.4%
4.4%

2nd Quarter 2014
April
Feb-Apr
4th Quarter 2013
July 1, 2013
June

April
April
Mar-May

75.1
185.63
2.3%
$247.0 billion
6.63 million
1,469,337
939,643
215,742
158,109
19,789
2,008
0
55,247
78,799
28,966
1,037,497
41,509

April
April

17,541
25,360

(1)
101

1st Quarter 2014
(Second Est.)
May
April
Feb.-Apr.
May

$15.9 trillion

(1.0)%

2.1%

83.0
101.4
$5.0 billion
237.1

1.6%
0.4%
(1.6)%
0.4%

11.7%
5.8%
14.7%
2.1%

* Excludes the temporary 1¢ increase that expired at the end of May 2013.

9.0%
0.2%
(0.4)%
0.7%
N/A
3.1%
1.6%
9.4%
2.2%
17.5%
(3.6)%
(100.0)%
0.3%
4.2%
(1.9)%
0.1%
59 inmates

Change From
Prior Year

7.9%
2.1%
(0.2)%
1.4%
1.2%
15.3%
6.0%
185.2%
6.9%
(72.1)%
(100.0)%
3.0%
16.6%
(21.4)%
(5.6)%
1,178 inmates
(181)
81

8

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2014

JLBC Meeting
At its June 19, 2014 meeting, the Joint Legislative Budget
Committee considered the following issues:
Attorney General – Review of Quarterly Reports on Legal
Settlements – The Committee gave a favorable review
of the $9.1 million allocation of legal settlements for the
third quarter of FY 2014. Of the $9.1 million total, $2.0
million went to the Consumer Protection – Consumer
Fraud (CPCF) Revolving Fund, $1.3 million to the
Restitution Subaccount, and $5.8 million to the
Remediation Subaccount.
Monies in the CPCF Revolving Fund are used to pay for
operations of the Consumer Protection Division. Monies
in the Restitution Subaccount are used to compensate
identifiable entities who suffer economic loss from
consumer fraud. Monies in the Mediation Subaccount
are deposited when there are no identifiable entities
resulting from consumer fraud.
Automobile Theft Authority – Review of the Reimbursable
Program – The Committee gave a favorable review of
the proposal to spend up to $10,000, to be donated by
the National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB), to support
the Arizona Vehicle Theft Task Force in an ongoing
investigation.
AHCCCS/Department of Health Services – Review of
Proposed Transfer – The Committee gave a favorable
review to transfer $13.0 million from AHCCCS to the
Department of Health Services (DHS) for expenditures
associated with Medicaid Behavioral Health Services.
DHS projects June 2014 enrollments will exceed
budgeted enrollments by 2.1%, or 27,400 enrollees. The
$13.0 million is the maximum amount for transfer
permitted under the FY 2015 General Appropriation Act.
Arizona Department of Education – Review of AELAS
Expenditure Plan for FY 2015 – The Committee gave a
favorable review to the Department of Education’s
(ADE) spending plan of $12.0 million for the Arizona
Education and Learning Accountability System.
ADE must still receive approval for spending
components from the Information Technology
Authorization Committee (ITAC) and the Arizona
Strategic Enterprise Technology (ASET).
Department of Public Safety – Review of the GIITEM
Expenditure Plan – The Committee gave a favorable
review to the Department of Public Safety’s spending
plan for the Gang and Immigration Intelligent Team
Enforcement Mission (GIITEM). Monies will be divided
between 4 programs: Detention Liaison Officers
Program, Border County Officers Program, Pima County
Borders Crime Unit, and Border Security and Law
Enforcement Grants.

Arizona Department of Administration/Department of
Environmental Quality – Review of Phase 2 Web Portal –
The Committee gave a favorable review to the
spending plan with certain provisions.
The $6.8 million will be used for myDEQ Phase 2, an
automation project covering 22 business services
previously done on paper.
Department of Child Safety – Review of Transition
Funding Expenditure Plan – The Committee gave a
favorable review to $3.6 million in transition funding for
the Department of Child Services (DCS) in the first
quarter. While originally budgeted as a one-time
expense, this funding would support 40 permanent
administrative FTE Positions and on-going software
licensing costs, with the following provisions:
1) DCS receive any necessary ADOA approvals for
information technology expenses.
2) DCS submit a listing of all 99 administrative FTE
Positions transferred from DES and a listing of all 40
new FTE Positions.
3) The favorable review does not reflect Committee
endorsement of a particular staffing level.
Department of Child Safety – Review of Quarterly
Benchmarks and Expenditure Plan – The Committee
gave a favorable review to DCS’s quarterly benchmark
and expenditure plan. The plan estimates that all of the
budgeted 1,406 caseworker positions will be filled by the
end of the first quarter of FY 2015. DCS also plans to
determine by December 2014 whether the 13,000
backlog cases as of June 2 will need further
investigation. Backlog cases are defined as those with
no case action in the last 60 days. DCS plan to finish any
investigation on these cases by the end of FY 2015.
Department of Child Safety – Review of FY 2015 Intensive
Family Services Expenditure Plan – The Committee gave
a favorable review to DCS’s Intensive Family Services
Expenditure plan, with the condition that DCS update
the Committee on the Request for Information and
Request for Proposals process regarding its service
delivery mechanism. DCS will spend this year’s funds in
the same manner as in FY 2014 by supplementing inhome services.
Attorney General – Review of Allocation of Settlement
Monies – State v. GlaxoSmithKlin, LLC. – The Committee
gave a favorable review to the Attorney General’s
allocation plan for the $3.1 million settlement in the State
v. GlaxoSmithKline, LLC case. An amount of $650,000 of
the settlement will be put into the CPCF Revolving Fund
and the remaining $2.4 million will be spent on
childhood obesity prevention efforts via a competitive
grants process.

9

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2014

JCCR Meeting
At its June 19, 2014 meeting, the Joint Committee on
Capital Review considered the following issues:
Arizona Department of Administration – Review of FY
2015 Building Renewal Allocation Plan – The
Committee gave a favorable review to the Arizona
Department of Administration (ADOA) proposed
Building Renewal Plan totaling $11.8 million. The
favorable review included the provision that ADOA
report on actual FY 2015 spending by project and
appropriation source on December 31, 2014, June 30,
2015, and June 30, 2016. The plan will fund a variety of
projects including fire alarm repairs, HVAC repairs, new
roofing, and demolition.
Arizona Department of Corrections – Review of FY 2015
Building Renewal Allocation Plan – The Committee
gave a favorable review to the Arizona Department of
Corrections proposed Building Renewal plan totaling
$8,464,3000. The plan will fund a variety of projects
including replacing obsolete locking and control
systems, converting evaporative coolers to air
conditioning, and work on 2 wells.
Arizona Exposition and State Fair Board – Review of
Capital Improvement Expenditures -The Committee
gave a favorable review to the Arizona Exposition and
State Fair’s proposed plan for 9 capital improvement
projects totaling $731,000. The plan will fund a variety
of projects including fire alarm repairs, asphalt and
sidewalk improvements, and new roofing.
East Valley Institute of Technology – Consider Approval
of Proposed JTED Lease – The Committee approved
the East Valley Institute of Technology (EVIT) proposal
to lease 3 Career and Technical Training buildings from
the Apache Junction Unified School District.
Arizona State University – Review of System Revenue
Bond Refund and Building Acquisition - The Committee
gave a favorable review to Arizona State University’s
(ASU) request to issue a $15.7 million revenue bond to
refund a privately-issued revenue bond for Las Casas
Residence Hall-West campus and to acquire the
property.
Northern Arizona University – Review of Indirect
Financing Project - The Committee gave a favorable
review to Northern Arizona University’s plan to enter
into a ground lease agreement for a new Student and
Academic Services Building at its Flagstaff campus.
The project would be built by a 3rd party and is
estimated to cost $38.8 million.

Arizona Department of Transportation – Review of
Vehicle Wash Systems Project – The Committee gave
a favorable review to the Arizona Department of
Transportation’s $2.4 million expenditure plan for 6 new
vehicle wash system buildings.
Arizona State University - Review of Indirect Financing
for New Washington, DC Facility – The Committee
gave a favorable review to ASU’s request to enter into
a master lease agreement with the ASU Foundation
for a multi-use office building in Washington, DC. The
total cost for the project is approximately $11.5 million.

10

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2014

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
Arizona Department of Administration – Report on State
Surplus Materials Revolving Fund Excess Revenue –
Pursuant to a FY 2014 General Appropriation Act footnote,
all State Surplus Materials Revolving Fund revenues
received by the Arizona Department of Administration
(ADOA) in excess of the $2.4 million appropriation from
the State Surplus Materials Revolving Fund in FY 2014 are
appropriated to ADOA. Prior to expending the additional
State Surplus Materials Revolving Fund receipts, ADOA is
required to report the intended use of the monies to the
Joint Legislative Budget Committee.
Monies appropriated to the State Surplus Property Sales
Proceeds line item are used to reimburse agencies for the
sale of surplus materials and are funded out of the State
Surplus Materials Revolving Fund. ADOA has reported that
an additional $575,000 from the State Surplus Materials
Revolving Fund will be used in FY 2014 to reimburse
agencies for the sale of surplus materials, and that current
revenues to the fund can sustain the increased amount of
reimbursements.
In addition, last year ADOA reported that the Surplus
Property Management Program experienced an increase
in proceeds from the sale of materials and that the Surplus
Materials Revolving Fund would receive $325,000 above
the appropriated amount in FY 2013. ADOA has reported
that it was only necessary for the program to utilize
$238,000 of the projected $325,000 increase in
expenditure authority in FY 2013. (Ben Henderson)
AHCCCS – Report on Health Insurance Exchange
Interaction and Eligibility Modifications – Pursuant to an FY
2014 General Appropriation Act, the Arizona Health Care
Cost Containment System (AHCCCS) is required to report
on the progress made on their automation interaction
with the Federally-Facilitated Marketplace (health
insurance exchange) and eligibility modifications as part
of the Affordable Care Act (ACA).
This is the third quarterly report regarding AHCCCS’
enrollment system, known as Health-e-Arizona Plus
(HEAplus). As of June 11, 2014, AHCCCS reports that it
continues to meet the requirements to obtain enhanced
federal funding for their eligibility requirements. In
addition, AHCCCS reports that it continues to complete
the transferring of accounts of applicants with incomes
too high for AHCCCS to the federal exchange in order to
be evaluated for the Premium Tax Credit (PTC) program
which offers federal subsidies for purchase through the
Federally-Facilitated Marketplace (FFM).
AHCCCS further reports that they continue to refine IT
processes and are waiting on federal government
coordination before completing remaining changes. To
date, a couple of known issues include:
1.

Federal exchange data continues to have defects
and deficiencies causing bottlenecks in processing
HEAplus account transfers. AHCCCS will provide a
summary in the next quarterly report on the status of

2.

these reconciliations as account transfers have only
been occurring on a limited basis since January 22,
2014.
The integration of the security check for state
workers, community assisters, and state vendors has
not yet been integrated with the federal exchange
since the federal exchange has not made testing of
the integration available. During the interim,
AHCCCS and DES are using an alternative process.
(Andrew Smith)

Department of Child Safety (DCS) – Foster Care
Medicaid Report/Quarterly Report on Individuals in the
Comprehensive Medical and Dental Program (CMDP) Pursuant to Laws 2013, Chapter 220, DCS is required to
report on foster care and Medicaid eligibility. These
reports are required quarterly until December 31, 2015.
During the third quarter of FY 2014, DCS reports the
following trends on foster care and Medicaid eligibility:
1. There were 14,391 children eligible for Medicaid in
foster care at the end of the third quarter, up from
13,309 at the end of the second quarter.
2. The percentage of foster care children eligible for
Medicaid grew from 97% at the end of the second
quarter to 98% at the end of the third quarter.
3. The amount of non-Medicaid behavioral health
group home expenditures used by DCS to
supplement Medicaid behavioral health placement
services was $1.8 million in the third quarter
compared to $1.9 million in the second quarter.
4. The amount of non-Medicaid behavioral health
evaluation/counseling expenditures used by DCS to
supplement Medicaid behavioral health services
declined from $164,000 in the second quarter to
$127,300 in the third quarter. (Ben Beutler)
Department of Child Safety (DCS) - Monthly Financial
and Program Accountability Report - Pursuant to Laws
2013, Chapter 1, DCS has submitted the April financial
and program accountability report. According to the
report, out-of-home placements increased from 15,337
in January 2014 to 15,538 in February 2014. Caseloads
are above the department’s goals, and turnover for
DCS case managers for the month was 1.6%. The
highlights of this report are summarized below.






The DCS training academy had 118 new DCS case
managers in training as of February, or (19) fewer
than in January.
DCS reports that monthly case manager turnover
during February was 1.6%, down from a 3.2% rate in
January.
In addition to the 3,512 continuing in-home cases,
an increase of 66 year over year, there were 1,939
new in-home cases in February, a decrease of (111)
year over year. The number of closed in-home
cases in February was 1,743, compared to 1,615 for
the same month in 2013.
There were 1,359 new out-of-home children in
February, a decrease of (14) year over year. The
total number of continuing out-of-home children

11

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2014

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)



increased to 14,179 in February from 12,785 for the
same month in 2013. The number of children who left
DCS care in February was 1,158, which is down by
(152) year over year.
The ratio of filled supervisor positions to filled DCS
case manager positions remained at 1:7 in January
and February. (Ben Beutler)

Economic Estimates Commission – Report on the Budget
Stabilization Fund – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 35-144F, the
Economic Estimates Commission (EEC) is annually
required to calculate the amount of monies that may be
deposited to or withdrawn from the Budget Stabilization
Fund (BSF). The EEC estimate is calculated based on a
formula that compares the growth rate of real adjusted
Arizona personal income in the most recent calendar
year to the average in the last 7 calendar years
(hereafter referred to as the “trend” growth rate).
Since the calendar year 2013 growth rate exceeded the
trend growth rate by 1.23%, EEC reported on May 29, 2014
that the formula calls for a BSF deposit of $112.2 million at
the end of FY 2014. EEC calculations under the formula,
however, do not result in any automatic deposits or
withdrawals, as they must be authorized by legislative
action. In practice, the formula has only served as a
general guideline and has rarely been used to determine
the actual deposit or withdrawal.
The FY 2015 budget does not include an appropriation of
these monies into the BSF. The BSF, however, does have a
balance of about $455 million as the result of large
deposits in FY 2012 and FY 2013. As session law, Laws
2014, Chapter 9 (SB 1487) appropriates $1 million of BSF
interest income to the Arizona Commission on the Arts in
FY 2015. (Hans Olofsson)
Department of Economic Security - Report on the Status
of the Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund - Pursuant to
A.R.S. § 23-665.13B, the Department of Economic Security
(DES) has provided a quarterly status report on the
Unemployment Insurance (UI) Trust Fund, including UI
revenue, fund outlays, the ending balance, interest
charges on the UI tax anticipation notes, and any
outstanding federal debt. During the 1st quarter of
calendar year (CY) 2014, DES reports that the UI Trust Fund
had a beginning balance of $23.6 million, revenues of
$53.6 million, and fund outlays of $74.2 million, resulting in
a $2.9 million ending balance, a decrease of $(0.9) million
from its previous estimate of $3.8 million.
During the recession, Arizona was 1 of 33 states to borrow
from the U.S. Department of Labor to fund unemployment
benefits. After borrowing the Federal Funds, the state
established a UI special assessment on employers for CY
2011 and CY 2012 only. Despite the additional revenue
from the special assessment, the state was unable to
repay all outstanding federal loans by November 10,
2012, resulting in a 0.3% federal unemployment tax (FUTA)
increase for CY 2012, which equaled an average extra
charge of $21 per employee.

To repay the federal loan by September 2013, DES
issued $200 million in UI tax anticipation notes. By
paying off the federal loan, the state will avoid (a) the
continuation of the 0.3% FUTA rate increase from CY
2012 and (b) an additional 0.3% FUTA rate increase in
CY 2014.
After the planned repayment of the UI Tax Anticipation
Notes in the 2nd quarter of CY 2014, DES is now
projecting a negative UI Trust Fund balance of $(26.5)
million in the 1st quarter of CY 2015. (Tom Ritland)
Department of Education – Budget Status Report –
Pursuant to A.R.S. § 35-131D, the Arizona Department of
Education (ADE) recently provided an update
regarding its budget status for FY 2014. In that report,
ADE estimates that it will experience a $3.1 million
funding surplus for formula programs for FY 2014. (Laws
2014, Chapter 18 provided ADE with $47 million in
supplemental funding for FY 2014 in order to prevent it
from experiencing a Basic State Aid shortfall in the
current year.) ADE’s final actual formula costs through
the end of FY 2014 will not be known until the final (June
30th) state aid payment for the year has been
completed. (Steve Schimpp)
Department of Education – Report on Empowerment
Scholarship Accounts – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-2403G,
the Arizona Department of Education (ADE) provided
an estimate of how much it will cost to fund
Empowerment Scholarship Accounts (ESAs) for FY 2015.
In its report, ADE estimates that it will cost $16.5 million
to fund ESAs in FY 2015, which would be $6.3 million
above its current estimate for FY 2014. ADE likewise
estimates that program enrollment will grow by 910
students in FY 2015, increasing from 761 students in FY
2014 to 1,671 in FY 2015. The net cost of the ESA
program above what participating students would
receive through Basic State Aid if they were not ESA
participants is unknown because an unknown portion
of ESA recipients would attend private schools rather
than public schools apart from the program. Those
students would not generate offsetting Basic State Aid
costs for the program.
In its report, ADE notes that statute (A.R.S. 15-2402C)
authorizes it to retain up to 4% of ESA funding
(estimated at $660,000 for FY 2015) for ESA
administrative costs, but that the FY 2015 budget gives
it authority to spend only $200,000 of those monies.
ADE indicates that it will need to spend more than
$200,000 on ESA administration in FY 2015 due to
expanding caseloads, the need for an automated
data system for accountability purposes, and a new
law that requires ADE to contract with an independent
3rd party to determine whether individual students are
eligible to spend ESA monies on special education
services. ADE’s current ESA report therefore requests an
increase in the amount of retained monies that are
appropriated for use for ADE’s ESA administrative costs
for FY 2015. (Steve Schimpp)

12

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2014

May Spending
May 2014 General Fund spending of $537.5 million was
$(23.1) million lower than May 2013. Year-to-date,
spending is $8.22 billion, which is $229.2 million or 2.9%
above last year.



Year-to-date, the Department of Education has spent
$271.7 million more than the prior year due to
increased enrollment, increased per-pupil costs, and
school district charter conversions. The enacted
budget included a $47.0 supplemental to the
Department in FY 2014 due to increased funding
requirements.



Department of Economic Security expenditures are
$70.2 million greater through May. The agency
received significant funding increases in FY 2014 for
child safety staff and services.

(See Tables 7 & 8).

Table 7
General Fund Spending ($ in Millions)
Change From

YTD Change

May 14

May 13

Year-to-Date

from FY 13

AHCCCS

83.5

(36.7)

1,079.3

(40.2)

Corrections

74.6

(22.1)

872.0

20.4

Economic Security

7.5

11.2

692.2

70.2

Education

259.9

20.0

3,445.1

271.7

Health Serv ices

31.8

14.3

547.6

(18.7)

Public Safety

2.2

0.1

48.6

7.6

School Facilities Board

(1.3)

(1.5)

191.5

18.0

Univ ersities

41.6

1.5

691.3

23.2

Agency

Leaseback Debt Serv ice

0.0

0.0

84.1

0.0

Other

37.7

(9.9)

570.0

77.0

Total

537.5

(23.1)

8,221.7

429.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

(200.0)

537.5

(23.1)

8,221.7

229.2

Budget Stabilization
Fund Deposit
Grand Total

13

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2014

Table 8

General Fund Spending
($ in Thousands)
Agency
Dept. of Admin./Automation Projects Fund
ADOA – Sale/Leaseback Debt Service
Office of Administrative Hearings
Department of Agriculture
AHCCCS
Attorney General
AZ Capital Post Conviction Public
Defender
State Board of Charter Schools
AZ Commerce Authority
Community Colleges
Corporation Commission
Department of Corrections
County Funding
AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind
Department of Economic Security
Department of Education
DEMA
DEQ – WQARF
Office of Equal Opportunity
State Board of Equalization
Board of Executive Clemency
Department of Financial Institutions
Department of Fire, Bldg and Life Safety
State Forester
Arizona Geological Survey
Governor/OSPB
Department of Health Services
Arizona Historical Society
Prescott Historical Society of AZ
Independent Redistricting Comm.
Commission of Indian Affairs
Department of Insurance
Judiciary
Supreme/Superior Court
Court of Appeals
Department of Juvenile Corrections

May 14
4,654.2
63.1
566.0
83,528.0
3,634.3
-

Change from
May 13
3,225.4
(10.6)
(291.4)
(36,741.9)
959.5
-

Year-to-Date
61,039.3
84,119.8
798.1
7,308.0
1,079,314.6
20,303.5
-

YTD Change
from FY 13
33,352.7
39.9
244.7
(40,186.3)
(6.9)
(4.4)

42.4

(45.5)

736.3

33.4

2,625.0
42.0
74,646.1
494.7
7,490.6
259,905.8
124.2
1.0
28.4
78.9
239.5
109.6
1,190.3
53.9
618.8
31,829.5
215.5
49.8
127.3
2.2
351.6

(22.0)
(22,130.8)
(2,043.5)
11,150.1
20,026.2
(323.5)
(86.9)
(12.0)
(19.1)
(105.6)
(8.7)
(1,219.6)
(39.5)
(480.9)
14,250.8
(72.3)
(15.5)
(494.5)
(3.4)
(204.5)

28,875.0
69,513.4
468.9
872,026.6
7,150.5
21,154.5
692,150.5
3,445,124.6
6,725.8
7,000.0
183.7
470.8
752.6
2,717.3
1,772.7
7,137.4
870.9
8,169.4
547,597.9
2,910.3
660.9
1,233.0
50.9
4,859.5

580.6
(80.1)
20,389.6
7,150.5
279.4
70,243.3
271,737.6
(359.2)
28.1
12.9
4.6
64.4
107.2
242.1
65.3
161.8
(18,726.2)
42.6
39.1
(1,124.6)
2.7
330.4

10,327.3
1,073.0
2,555.2

(1,000.6)
(581.6)
(1,345.7)

90,929.8
12,906.0
35,763.6

1,676.5
296.1
(1,309.1)

14

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2014

Table 8 (Continued)

Agency
State Land Department
Law Enforcement Merit System
Legislature
Auditor General
House of Representatives
Joint Legislative Budget Comm.
Legislative Council
Senate
Mine Inspector
Nav. Streams & Adjudication
State Board of Nursing
Occupational Safety and Health Review
Phoenix Convention Center
Pioneers’ Home
Comm. for Postsecondary Ed.
Department of Public Safety
Public Safety Personnel Retirement System
Arizona Department of Racing
Radiation Regulatory Agency
Real Estate Department
Department of Revenue
School Facilities Board
Secretary of State
Tax Appeals Board
Office of Tourism
Department of Transportation
Commission on Uniform State Laws
Universities
Board of Regents
Arizona State University
Northern Arizona University
University of Arizona
Department of Veteran Services
Department of Water Resources
Department of Weights & Measures
Other - JP Salaries Distribution
Other
Total
Budget Stabilization Fund Deposit
Grand Total

May 14
932.1
-

Change from
May 13
644.8
(8.7)

Year-to-Date
10,890.7
-

YTD Change
from FY 13
9,724.8
(63.5)

1,446.9
946.5
151.4
374.7
634.1
79.6
17.9
150.0
5.5
2,184.4
65.1
176.8
1,095.6
(1,341.2)
791.5
17.1
-

(480.4)
(522.7)
(56.5)
(131.3)
(331.0)
(43.7)
4.5
150.0
(47.8)
(0.1)
146.2
(2.8)
(12.0)
(59.5)
(3,361.7)
(1,494.3)
(122.8)
(10.3)
(556.4)
(1.1)
-

17,426.9
11,591.3
1,865.2
5,938.7
7,724.9
1,081.7
157.9
150.0
2.3
20,449.0
1,604.7
1,396.8
48,611.3
5,000.0
1,983.9
1,399.3
2,239.0
40,792.7
191,531.9
10,662.9
242.7
8,112.9
6.4
75.0

1,513.3
666.8
119.7
(339.1)
315.1
45.6
47.2
150.0
2.3
14,854.0
486.5
7,579.8
5,000.0
3.7
31.2
(2.2)
2,948.4
17,968.3
(4,382.7)
3.5
3,698.5
(14.5)
75.0

(118.7)
19,640.4
6,562.5
15,498.4
463.9
903.1
129.5
26.6
1.6
537,503.4
537,503.4

(984.8)
2,259.2
638.3
(381.4)
(149.2)
(486.7)
20.5
(7.0)
(1.8)
(23,078.2)
(23,078.2)

21,569.9
306,620.1
102,682.5
260,391.9
4,789.2
9,855.0
1,126.1
841.9
132.8
8,221,743.8
8,221,743.8

(15,519.7)
24,851.3
7,021.5
6,874.9
(276.3)
838.8
(305.7)
(117.9)
61.5
429,188.6
(200,000.0)
229,188.6

Total Non-Farm Employment

Tracking Arizona’s Recovery
June 2014
Appendix A

2,800

2,700

Thousands of Jobs

Slide:
2……Total Non-Farm Employment
3……Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
4……State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
5……State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting
Category
6……Single Family Building Permits
7……Maricopa County Pending Foreclosures
8……Coincident Index

2,600

2,500

2,400

2,300

2,200

JLBC

2002

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011 2012

JUL

JAN

JAN

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2005

JLBC

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

JAN

JUL

2003 2004

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2001

1

JAN

JAN

2,100

2013 2014

2

Not seasonally adjusted

State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
$225

40,000
35,000

$200

$ in Millions

30,000
25,000
20,000

$150

15,000

$125

2005

2006

2007

2010

2011

2012 2013 2014

3

Apr-14

* Jan-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Apr-13

Jul-12

Apr 12

Oct 11
Jan 12

Jan 11

Apr 11

July 11

Oct 10

July 10

Jan 10

Oct 09

Apr 10

Apr 09

July 09

Jan 09

Oct 08

Apr 08

July 08

Oct 07
Jan 08

July 07

Apr 07

JUL

JAN

JAN

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2008 2009

Not seasonally adjusted

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2004

JAN

JUL

2003

JAN

JUL

2002

JAN

JUL

JAN

JAN

2001

Jan 07

$100

Oct 06

10,000
5,000

JLBC

$175

July 06

Total Monthly Claims for UI Benefits

45,000

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

JLBC

* January 2014 collections reflect the reclassification of approximately $40
million of revenue from other tax categories to retail collections

4

State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting Category

Single Family Building Permits
100,000

$100

Single Family Building Permits

90,000

$ in Millions

$75

$50

$25

80,000

70,000
60,000

50,000
40,000

30,000
20,000

2001
Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

JLBC

5

2003

2004

2005

JLBC

2006

2007 2008

2009

2010

2012

JUL

JAN

JAN

JUL

JAN

2011

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2002

2014

2013

6

12-Month Moving Sum

Maricopa County Pending Foreclosures

Economic Activity Index
210

50,000

200

Coincident Index Value

60,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

190
180
170
160
150

2003

2004

2006

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

An initial notice of trustee sale has been recorded but final sale has not yet occurred

2013

2001

JLBC

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2012

JAN

JUL

JAN

JAN

2011

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JUL

JAN

2014

7

JAN

140

JAN

JUL

JAN

JULY

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JUL

2007

JAN

JAN

JUL

JUL

2005

JAN

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JUL

2002

JAN

JAN

0

JLBC

JAN

JUL

JAN

0
JAN

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jan 12

Apr 12

Oct 11

July 11

Jan 11

Oct 10

Apr 11

Jan 10

July 10

Oct 09

Apr 10

Jan 09

Apr 09

July 09

Oct 08

Jan 08

Apr 08

July 08

Oct 07

July 07

Jan 07

Oct 06

Apr 07

July 06

10,000
$0

2013

Source: Coincident Index – Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Combines four state-level indicators
(employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary
disbursements) to summarize current economic conditions.

2014

8