JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights

April 2014

Summary
1716 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Phone:
(602) 926-5491
Fax:
(602) 926-5416

www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

“The
performance of
the Individual
Income tax
category
remains
uncertain until at
least the middle
of May.”

March General Fund revenue collections
totaled $590.5 million. Base revenues, which
exclude one-time adjustments, were 19.9%
above March 2013. The year-over-year
change excludes the temporary 1-cent sales
tax which expired at the end of May 2013.
The significant increase in March collections
was mostly due to the Individual Income Tax,
which posted an increase of 80% compared
to March 2013. However, in the middle of tax
filing season it is difficult to draw conclusions
about this result, given that return processing
and the timing of taxpayer filings can cause
significant fluctuations in collections in any
given week. While next month’s results for April
may yield more information, the performance
of the Individual Income tax category remains
uncertain until at least the middle of May, at
which time most taxpayer returns have been
processed.
In terms of the state’s other main revenue
categories, Sales and Corporate Income
taxes showed increases over the prior year,
with those revenues categories coming in at
$13.6 million and $11.5 million above the
budget forecast, respectively.
Overall March General Fund collections were
$55.6 million above the January forecast
assumed in the April enacted budget. Yearto-date, overall collections are $39.0 million
above the January forecast, while base
revenues are 4.3% higher than last year.
In comparison to revenue of $590.5 million,
March 2014 spending was $478.2 million,
which is an increase of $114.5 million from the
prior year.

Fiscal year-to-date, General Fund revenues of
$5.96 billion have been offset by $7.07 billion
of expenditures.
The state’s fiscal health can also be measured
by the operating fund balance. The state
pays its bills out of the operating fund
balance, which consists of the General Fund
and certain dedicated funds. The operating
balance is at $2.0 billion as of mid-April 2014.
In addition, the state’s Budget Stabilization
Fund has a balance of $454.1 million.
April FAC Summary
The Finance Advisory Committee (FAC) met
on April 10, 2014 to update its 4-sector
revenue forecast. The FAC is a 15 member
panel of private and public section
economists and their views serve as one of
the 4 equal inputs into JLBC’s Consensus
revenue forecast. The remaining 3 inputs are
the JLBC Staff forecast and 2 University of
Arizona models.
The FAC heard presentations on General Fund
Revenue collections, the U.S. economy, and
state cash flows. The JLBC Staff provided
members with revised FY 2014 - FY 2017 fiscal
estimates based on the updated 4-sector
revenue forecast and the spending plan
outlined in the Conference budget approved
by the Legislature on April 7, 2014. That plan
was slightly altered by the Governor’s vetoes
on April 11, 2014.

Table of Contents
Summary
 April FAC Summary ............................................ 1
 Medicaid Expansion Enrollment ...................... 2
 Monthly Report on Child Safety Staff .............. 2
This report has been
prepared for the Arizona
Legislature by the Joint
Legislative Budget
Committee Staff on
April 21, 2014.

 Classroom Site Fund Report .............................. 2

March Revenues .................................................... 3
Economic Indicators.............................................. 5

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
 ADOA – Public Safety Network Report ......... 10
 Medicaid – FY 2015 Capitation Rates ........... 10
 Attorney General – Incarceration Costs....... 10
 Auditor General – Foster Care Clients .......... 11
 ADE – Budget Status Report ............................ 11

JLBC Meeting .......................................................... 8

March Spending ................................................... 12

JCCR Meeting ......................................................... 9

Tracking Arizona’s Recovery .............Appendix A

2

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – APRIL 2014

Summary (Continued)
During the meeting, FAC panelists generally outlined a
slowly improving economy, with moderate growth
predicted for the next several years.
In comparison to the January forecast, the April 4-sector
projection reduced the FY 2015 base revenue growth
rate from 5.3% to 5.0%. The FY 2016 and FY 2017
estimates were virtually unchanged. (See Table 1) Given
the current year-to-date FY 2014 performance of 4.3%,
the long-term budget projections retained the January
FY 2014 forecast of 4.3%.
Table 1
Comparison of January and April FAC Forecasts

January 4-Sector
April 4-Sector

FY 15

FY 16

FY 17

5.3%
5.0%

5.2%
5.3%

5.6%
5.6%

The net result of the April 4-sector forecast is to reduce
the level of projected revenues by $(33) million in FY
2015 and by $(69) million in FY 2017, compared to the
enacted budget just approved by the Governor and
Legislature (which used the January 4-sector
estimates).
As a result, the enacted budget’s projected FY 2015
ending balance would fall from $139 million to $106
million. Under the 3-year spending plan, the enacted
budget had a projected FY 2017 shortfall of $(469)
million. The April forecast would increase that shortfall to
$(538) million.
Medicaid Expansion Enrollment
On January 1, 2014, Medicaid coverage was expanded
to adults from 100-133% of the federal poverty level (FPL)
and restored to childless adults from 0-100% FPL. From
July 2011 through December 2013, the childless adult
program did not allow new participants. As of April 1,
expansion has resulted in 14,000 new adult enrollees
while restoration has increased the childless adult
program by 112,923 enrollees. The FY 2015 budget
assumes that, by June 2014, expansion would result in
24,000 adult expansion enrollees and a 78,540 increase
in childless adult enrollees. It is assumed that the phasein of new enrollees will continue through December
2014.
Monthly Report on Child Safety Staff - Pursuant to Laws
2014, Chapter 4, DCSFS has submitted the February and
March reports on its progress in hiring child safety staff.
Laws 2014, Chapter 4 appropriated $6.9 million and 192
FTE Positions to hire new child safety staff. With these
added positions, total budgeted child safety staff is
2,667 FTE Positions.

Compared to the 192 new authorized positions, net filled
child safety staff increased by 34 positions in February
and March. Table 2 provides details on the staffing
increase.
Table 2

Filled Child Safety Positions
Change
since January

Total
in March

Caseworkers

23

1,006

Hotline Staff

6

76

Staff in Training

14

151

Non-Caseworkers

(9)

1,085

34

2,318

Total
1/

1/

Excludes 20 temporary staff

Classroom Site Fund Report – The JLBC Staff is required to
annually determine by March 30 of each year the
estimated K-12 Classroom Site Fund (CSF) per pupil
amount for the upcoming budget year. The CSF is
funded from the Proposition 301 0.6¢ sales tax and from
K-12 trust land endowment earnings.
Under these parameters, public schools will receive $295
per weighted pupil from the CSF for FY 2015. The $295
per pupil amount would be slightly lower than the $310
per pupil amount anticipated for FY 2014 because of
higher School Facilities Board debt service costs, the loss
of one-time State Land Department revenues, and
growing student enrollments.
Those factors are expected to more than offset growth
in Proposition 301 sales tax revenues and Treasurer’s
endowment earnings for FY 2015.

3

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – APRIL 2014

March Revenues
Table 3

General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions)

March
Year-to-Date

FY 2014
Collections
$ 590.5
$ 5,955.6

Sales Tax collections of $326.0 million were 9.3% above
March 2013 and $13.6 million above the forecast for the
month. The year-over-year change amounts exclude the
temporary 1-cent sales tax which expired at the end of
May 2013.
For the first 9 months of the fiscal year, sales tax
collections are 5.9% above the prior year and are $2.5
million above the January forecast.
Table 4 displays the March growth rates for the largest
sales tax categories.
Retail and contracting together account for about 60%
of all sales tax revenues. March retail, which reflects
February sales, increased by 6.6%. Year-to-date, retail
sales are up 8.7%.
Contracting collections have generally been much
more volatile than retail. However, contracting has
shown double digit increases every month during the
current fiscal year.
Table 4
Sales Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year
Retail
Contracting
Use
Restaurant & Bar

March
6.6%
13.5%
11.7%
9.3%

YTD
8.7%
15.4%
(12.9)%
4.2%

Individual Income Tax net revenues were $118.4 million in
March, which was $52.6 million above the prior year.
Collections were $31.8 million above the forecast for the
month. Year-to-date, revenue has grown 5.3% over the
prior year, and is $24.0 million above the January
forecast.
As indicated in Table 5, withholding increased by 9.6%
for the month. The March increase brings withholding
tax collections for the fiscal year to 3.5% over the prior
year. This amount is approximately equal to the January
forecast.
March estimated and final payments were 8.2% above
last year. Year-to-date, payments are up 5.2%
compared to the prior year, and are $7.4 million above
the enacted budget forecast.

Difference From
Budget Forecast
$ 55.6
$ 39.0

Difference
From FY 2013
$ 25.5
$ (358.3)

March refunds were (7.0)% below last year, and were
$22.6 million below forecast. Refunds totaled $(261.8)
million in March, which is $19.8 million less than last year.
The decline in refunds during March 2014 may be more
a function of the timing of processing and taxpayer filing
rather than a change in taxpayer liability.
Year-to-date, refunds are (1.0)% less than the prior year.
Table 5
Individual Income Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year
Withholding
Estimated +
Final Payments
Refunds

March
9.6%
8.2%
(7.0)%

YTD
3.5%
5.2%
(1.0)%

Corporate Income Tax net collections were $78.4 million
in March, which is $3.0 million greater than March of the
prior year. Year-to-date, collections are down (10.6)%
compared to the prior year, and are $9.4 million above
the January forecast.
The Lottery Commission reports that March ticket sales
were $69.1 million, which is $(0.8) million, or (1.2)%, below
sales in the prior year. Year-to-date ticket sales are
$545.5 million, which is 7.9% above last year’s sales.
March lottery revenues were $7.0 million above forecast,
largely due to a technical timing issue relating to the
processing of Lottery Commission profits.
Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) revenues consist of
gasoline and use fuel (diesel) tax, motor carrier fees
(commercial carriers), vehicle license tax and
registration fees, and various other fees. HURF
collections of $103.1 million in March were up $2.8
million, or 2.8%, compared to March of last year. Yearto-date revenues are 2.7% above collections in the prior
year, and are $15.4 million above forecast.

4
Table 6

General Fund Revenue:
Change from Previous Year and January Baseline Forecast
March 2014
Current Month

FY 2014 YTD (Nine Months)

Change From
Actual

March 2013

March 2014

Amount

Change from
January Forecast

Percent

Amount

Actual

Percent

March 2013

March 2014

Amount

January Forecast
Percent

Amount

Percent

Taxes
Sales and Use
Income - Individual
- Corporate
Property
Luxury - Tobacco
- Liquor
Insurance Premium
Estate
Other Taxes
Sub-Total Taxes

$325,993,542

$27,868,076

$2,993,457,227

$167,532,663

118,392,715

52,602,636

80.0

9.3 %

$13,558,054
31,829,111

36.8

4.3 %

2,440,446,629

122,434,343

78,408,428

3,007,999

4.0

11,515,228

17.2

361,474,492

638,691

23,020

3.7

338,691

112.9

11,641,684

(43,001,918)
2,559,310

5.9 %

$2,543,644

0.1 %

5.3

24,032,721

1.0

9,380,040

2.7

28.2

998,255

9.4

(10.6)

1,928,754

(1,420,976)

(42.4)

(1,171,246)

(37.8)

19,301,309

(56,611)

(0.3)

492,586

2.6

2,311,496

(674,557)

(22.6)

(788,504)

(25.4)

24,264,678

177,319

0.7

151,685

0.6

(2,672,502)

(2.9)

248,694,988

28,109,031

12.7

--

0

0

(95.7)

384,839

90,260,498

22,549,089

0

0

41,869

(1,021,344)

33.3
-(96.1)

$617,975,993

$102,933,943

20.0 %

12,485,250

7,466,210

148.8

2,199,312

34,572

1.6

0
(942,799)
$51,666,033

9.1 %

(1,025,052)

$6,099,665,847

$276,729,086

7,577,908

-(72.7)
4.8 %

(2,597,098)
0
(990,161)
$34,011,673

(1.0)
-(72.0)
0.6 %

Other Revenue
Lottery
License, Fees and Permits
Interest

(12,978)

(15,539)

--

Sales and Services

2,066,187

(117,815)

(5.4)

Other Miscellaneous

2,164,888

(1,726,072)

(44.4)

Disproportionate Share
Transfers and Reimbursements
Sub-Total Other Revenue
TOTAL BASE REVENUE

0
289,077

0
(2,719,240)

-(90.4)

6,985,250

127.0

39,206,868

24.0

7,920,000

(400,688)

(15.4)

21,196,868

(616,181)

(2.8)

(1,421,474)

(6.3)

(12,978)

--

3,239

(4,905,989)

(99.9)

(2,008,602)

(99.8)

916,187
(1,835,112)
0
(1,710,923)

79.7

21,947,536

(45.9)

10,028,605

--

0

(85.5)

16,123,375

(9,199,491)
($18,202,967)

$19,191,737

$2,922,117

18.0 %

$3,941,737

25.8 %

$108,506,491

$637,167,730

$105,856,060

19.9 %

$55,607,770

9.6 %

$6,208,172,339

605,028
(11,664,243)
0

$258,526,120

2.8
(53.8)
--

(20,020)

(0.1)

(3,435,211)

(25.5)

0

(36.3)

(11,025,379)

(14.4) %

($9,990,685)

4.3 %

25.3

$24,020,989

-(40.6)
(8.4) %
0.4 %

Other Adjustments
Urban Revenue Sharing

(420,873,203)

(35,685,173)

9.3

0

0.0

One-Time Transfers

0

0

--

0

--

165,646,297

129,646,297

360.1

14,954,736

9.9

Sales Tax - 1¢ Increase

0

(76,430,417) (100.0)

0

--

2,611,367

(710,740,385)

(99.6)

0

0.0

(80,341,077)

-- %

0

0.0 %

Sub-Total Other Adjustments
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE

(46,709,330)

(46,709,330)

(3,910,660)

9.1

0

0.0

(252,615,539)

$590,458,400

$25,514,983

4.5 %

$55,607,770

10.4 %

$5,955,556,800

$103,083,992

$2,823,529

2.8 %

$1,820,924

1.8 %

$920,679,024

(616,779,261)

-- %

14,954,736

(5.6) %

($358,253,142)

(5.7) %

$38,975,725

0.7 %

2.7 %

$15,399,110

1.7 %

Non-General Funds
Highway User Revenue Fund

$24,362,277

5

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – APRIL 2014

Recent Economic Indicators
NATIONAL

“The [U.S.
Consumer
Confidence]
index now stands
at its highest
mark since
January 2008.”

According to the U.S. Department of
Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, the
U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
increased at an annual rate of 2.6% in the
fourth quarter of 2013. This estimate was a
deceleration from the 4.1% growth in the third
quarter. The slowdown was primarily due to
decreases in federal government spending,
residential investment and inventory
accumulation. The quarterly decrease in
residential investment (housing) was the first
since the third quarter of 2010.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer
Confidence Index increased 5.1% in March and
33% since March 2013. At 82.3, the index now
stands at its highest mark since January 2008.
Improvement in the index’s component that
measures consumer outlook on future
economic well-being more than offset a
decrease in the component measuring
confidence in present circumstances.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Economic
Index increased by 0.5% in February and 4.7%
since February 2013. While 6 of the index’s 10
components decreased during the month,
growth in the remaining 4 generated the strong
overall increase. Improvement in measures of
financial market performance and in building
permit creation led the rise.
Consumer prices, as measured by the U.S.
Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased 0.2% in
March and 1.5% above March 2013 levels.
During the month, core inflation (all items
except food and energy) rose 0.2%, energy
prices fell (0.1)% and food prices rose 0.4%.
Annual inflation measured by the index in the
future is expected to strongly influence the
pace the Federal Reserve Bank reduces their
monetary stimulus to the economy.
ARIZONA
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s
coincident index gauges current economic
activity in each state. The index combines 4
indicators: employment, average hours worked
in manufacturing, unemployment rate, and
inflation-adjusted wages.
In February, 38 out of 50 states had increases in
their coincident indexes. Arizona’s coincident

index increased by 0.2% compared to the prior
month. Year-over-year, the Arizona index is
2.3% above last year, which is the 35rd highest
growth rate in the country. While this is a
significant improvement, Arizona’s index is still
(8.2)% below its peak, which occurred in
August 2007. See Appendix A – Tracking
Arizona’s Recovery for additional historical
information.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia also
publishes a leading index for each state that
forecasts economic conditions for the next 6
months. In addition to the coincident index,
Arizona’s leading index is based on Arizona
housing permits, Arizona initial unemployment
insurance claims, national manufacturing
delivery times, and the interest rate spread
between the 3-month and 10-year Treasury
instruments.
Using a 3-month average, Arizona’s leading
index projects that state GDP will grow at an
annualized rate of 3.4% over the next 6 months.
This is higher than the revised 3.3% growth
projection in January and higher than the 2.7%
projection in February 2013.
Housing
The number of Maricopa County pending
foreclosures decreased from 5,424 in February
to 4,983 in March. The March total is
significantly below the peak in December
2009 (51,466). See Appendix A – Tracking
Arizona’s Recovery.
The total housing inventory in the Greater
Phoenix area increased from 20,729 in March
2013 to 29,939 in March 2014, a 44.4%
increase.
In the Metropolitan Phoenix area, the median
price of a single family home was $195,000 in
February. This represents a (1.0)% decrease
from January, and a 14.7% increase from
February of last year.
Another measure of the health of the Arizona
real estate market is permitting activity. For
the 3-month period through February, an
average of 1,339 single-family building
permits had been issued statewide, a 14.1%
increase from last year. While permitting
activity has seen gains, the current level of
permitting remains far below a more normal
3-month average of 3,000 to 4,000 permits.
See Appendix A – Tracking Arizona’s Recovery.

6

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – APRIL 2014

Recent Economic Indicators (Continued)
Employment
The state gained a total of 15,600 nonfarm
jobs between February and March. The
private sector added a net of 17,100 jobs in
March whereas the government sector lost
(1,500) jobs. The largest contributions to
March’s month-over-month net job gain
came from the following 2 sectors:
professional and business services (+7,300)
and leisure and hospitality (+5,400).

“Compared to
the same month
last year, food
stamp
participation
was down by
(6.0)%.”

Compared to March 2013, nonfarm
employment was up by 1.9%, or 47,400 jobs.
This was the second month of year-over-year
growth below 2% following January’s job gain
of 2.3%. The largest year-over-year net job
gains came from the following industries:
education and health services (+11,900), trade,
transportation and utilities (+11,400), and
financial activities (+8,900). Notably, the
construction industry’s year-over-year net job
increase of 2,900 was the smallest since
February 2012.
The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment
rate remained unchanged at 7.3% in March.
Compared to same month last year, the
jobless rate has decreased by (0.7)%. The U.S.
unemployment rate was 6.7% in both February
and March.
State Agency Data
At the beginning of April, total AHCCCS
caseloads increased to 1.38 million members.
Overall, AHCCCS caseloads are currently
8.5% above April 2013 levels.
The traditional acute care AHCCCS
population, which consists primarily of lower
income children and their parents, grew by
26,891 to a level of 903,802. This level
represents an increase of 3.1% since last
month and 2.0% since last year. This growth, in
part, may be related to the federal health
care expansion. When applying for
Affordable Care Act coverage, households
may have discovered that they were instead
eligible for the traditional Medicaid program.
From July 2011 through December 2013, the
childless adult program did not allow new
participants. As part of Medicaid expansion
and restoration that began January 1, 2014,
the program again allowed new participants.
Since the December MFH, the population has
increased by 112,923 to reach a level of
180,693. As a whole, the Proposition 204

program has increased 9.5% compared to the
prior month, and 45.8% from the prior year.
Medicaid expansion also resulted in the
creation of a new member population
consisting of adults from 100% to 133% of the
Federal Poverty Level (FPL). At the beginning
of April, 14,000 individuals had enrolled under
this new population.
KidsCare I provides coverage for 2,098
children with incomes above those in the
traditional population. Its enrollment has
declined since a freeze was implemented in
January 2010. Enrollment in the program has
declined (72.5)% from the prior year, though a
portion of that decrease is the result of
transferring 3,300 children that became
eligible for the Traditional acute care
program on January 1, 2014.
There were 30,815 TANF recipients in the state
in February, a monthly caseload decrease of
(2.7)%. Year-over-year, the number of TANF
recipients has declined by (18.1)%. The
statutory lifetime limit on cash assistance is 24
months.
The appropriation for TANF cash assistance in
the FY 2014 budget funds an average
monthly caseload of approximately 34,346
recipients in FY 2014.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance
Program (SNAP), formerly known as Food
Stamps, provides assistance to low-income
households to purchase food. In February,
there were a total 1.04 million food stamp
recipients in the state, a (1.0)% decrease over
the prior month. Compared to the same
month last year, food stamp participation was
down by (6.0)%. The number of SNAP
recipients began increasing steadily in July
2007, after several years in the 550,000 to
575,000 range. Total SNAP participation
peaked in October 2011, when 1.14 million
persons were receiving benefits. Since then,
participation has declined as economic
conditions have improved.
The 3-month average count of the
Department of Corrections (ADC) inmate
population increased to 41,371 inmates in
March 2014. Relative to the prior 3-month
period, the population has increased by 114
inmates. Compared to a year ago, the
population has increased by 1,286 inmates,
an increase of 3.2%.

7

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – APRIL 2014

Recent Economic Indicators

(Continued)

Table 7

ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Indicator
Arizona
- Unemployment Rate (SA)
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Unemployment Insurance Recipients
- Non-Farm Employment - Total
Manufacturing
Construction
- Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing
- Contracting Tax Receipts (3-month average)
- Retail Sales Tax Receipts (3-month average)
- Residential Building Permits (3-month moving average)
Single-family
Multi-unit
- Greater Phoenix Home Sales
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Greater Phoenix Median Home Price
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Greater Phoenix S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
(Jan. 2000 = 100)
- Foreclosure Activity, Maricopa County
Pending Foreclosures (Active Notices)
- Greater Phoenix Total Housing Inventory, (ARMLS)
- Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers
- Revenue Per Available Hotel Room
- Arizona Average Natural Gas Price
($ per thousand cubic feet)
- Arizona Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Arizona Coincident Index (July 1992 = 100)
- Arizona Leading Index -- 6 month projected growth rate
- Arizona Personal Income
- Arizona Population
- AHCCCS Recipients
Acute Care Traditional
Prop 204 Childless Adults
Other Prop 204
Adult Expansion
Kids Care I
Long-Term Care – Elderly & DD
Emergency Services
- TANF Recipients
- SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients
- ADC Inmate Growth (3-month average)
- Probation Caseload
Non-Maricopa
Maricopa County
United States
- Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2009 dollars, SAAR)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Leading Indicators Index (2004 = 100)
- U.S. Semiconductor Billings (3-month moving average)
- Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100)

Time Period

Current Value

Change From
Prior Period

February
March
March
March
March
March
February
Jan-Mar
Jan-Mar

7.3%
20,574
35,748
2.57 million
154,400
122,900
40.3
$37.6 million
$187.8 million

(0.2) %
16.5%
3.1%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
2.3%
(3.7)%
(1.6)%

(0.7)%
11.1%
(3.3)%
1.9%
(0.5)%
2.4%
(0.7)%
13.9%*
10.4%*

Dec-Feb
Dec-Feb

1,339
1,006

7.7%
52.3%

14.1%
33.7%

February
February

5,398
963

0.8%
6.5%

(26.6)%
(20.8)%

February
February
January

$195,000
$121,900
144.18

(1.0)%
3.1%
(0.2)%

14.7%
12.9%
13.8%

March

4,983

(8.1)%

(51.1)%

March
Februrary
February
January

29,939
3.15 million
$84.77
$5.09

0.9%
(6.4)%
36.3%
(0.2)%

44.4%
2.9%
10.2%
14.9%

1st Quarter 2014
February
Dec-Feb
4th Quarter 2013
July 1, 2013
April

February
February
Jan-Mar

68.9
185.16
3.4%
$247.0 billion
6.63 million
1,377,653
903,802
180,693
150,249
14,000
2,098
54,922
71,889
30,815
1,035,519
41,371

January
January

17,517
24,932

17,517
24,932

4th Quarter 2013
(Third Estimate)
March
February
Dec.-Feb.
March

$15.9 trillion

2.6%

2.6%

82.3
99.8
$5.3 billion
235.6

5.1%
0.5%
(5.6)%
0.2%

33.0%
4.7%
18.0%
1.5%

* Excludes the temporary 1¢ increase that expired at the end of May 2013.

3.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.7%
N/A
5.7%
3.1%
15.7%
4.7%
141.1%
(2.1)%
0.4%
11.3%
(2.7)%
(1.0)%
114 inmates

Change From
Prior Year

N/A
2.3%
0.7%
1.4%
1.2%
8.5%
2.0%
128.6%
1.6%
(72.5)%
3.1%
8.9%
(18.1)%
(6.0)%
1,286 inmates
17,517
24,932

8

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – APRIL 2014

JLBC Meeting
At its April 10, 2014 meeting, the Joint Legislative Budget
Committee considered the following issues:
Arizona Department of Administration – Review of
Emergency Telecommunication Services Revolving Fund
(ETSF) Expenditure Plan – The Committee gave a
favorable review of the $5.7 million wireless portion of the
ETSF expenditure plan. The proposal would assist local
governments which have yet to meet Geographic
Information System Standards and subsequently have not
been deployed into Phase II.
Phase I requires local public safety answering facilities to
be able to identify the phone number of the caller
whereas Phase II additionally requires the public safety
answering facilities to identify the specific location of a
911 caller.
Arizona Department of Administration – Consider Approval
of Employer Sanctions Enforcement Distributions – The
Committee approved the Department of Administration’s
(ADOA) request to distribute $300,500 of the $513,200 FY
2014 appropriation for the enforcement of immigrationrelated employer sanctions. The approval included the
following provisions:
1)
2)

If a county attorney or sheriff not currently scheduled
to receive any monies subsequently requests FY 2014
funding, ADOA may provide those funds.
Any unused funds revert back to the General Fund.

The FY 2014 General Appropriation Act appropriated $1.2
million to ADOA for County Attorney Immigration
Enforcement Special Line Item with a footnote specifying
that of the $1.2 million amount, $700,000 shall be
allocated to Maricopa County. The remaining amount is
to be distributed by ADOA to all other county sheriffs and
county attorneys for enforcement of immigration-related
employer sanctions.
Arizona Department of Economic Security – Review of
Contingency Funding Expenditure Plan – The Committee
gave a favorable review of the Department of Economic
Security’s (DES) spending plan for the expenditure of
monies from the Contingency Funding line item.
Through a footnote in the FY 2014 General Appropriation
Act, $10.5 million in the Contingency Funding line item is
designated for unanticipated shortfalls in Child Protective
Services (CPS). The department plans to use the
Contingency Funding for CPS Emergency and Residential
Placement to address a portion of DES’ projected $14.7
million shortfall for these placements.
Arizona Department of Economic Security – Review of
Intensive Family Services Implementation – The Committee
acknowledged reviewing the department’s expenditure
plan for the current fiscal year with the provision that the
department report by June 1, 2014 on how it plans to

expend the Intensive Family Services funds in FY 2015.
With input from the House and Senate as well as the
Child Protective Services Reform Workgroup, the
Committee would then provide further guidance on
whether the FY 2015 appropriation is to be expended
for a new program or integrated into existing services.
The FY 2014 General Appropriation Act appropriated
$5 million from the General Fund to a new Intensive
Family Services line item.
Arizona Department of Education – Review of Sunnyside
Unified Payments – The Committee gave a favorable
review to the Department of Education’s plan to
provide the Sunnyside Unified School District in Pima
County with $1.9 million in corrected Basic State Aid
funding due to a recent settlement in the Arizona Tax
Court regarding property taxes paid in prior years by
the Raytheon Company.
Arizona Department of Environmental Quality – Review
of Vehicle Emissions Contract Modifications – The
Committee gave a favorable review of modifications
to the Vehicle Emissions Inspection (VEI) contract with
private vendor Gordon Darby Arizona Testing, Inc.
Based on the vendor experience over the past year,
the department and the vendor propose operation
process and testing requirement changes relating to
the following items: Gas Cap Replacement, Catalyst
Efficiency Test, Special Vehicle Test Lane, Station
Signage, Repair Industry Effectiveness, Liquid Leak
Inspections, Diesel Testing in the Tucson Metro area and
Wavier/Referee technicians and inspectors.
AHCCCS/Department of Health Services – Review of
Revised Capitation Rate Changes for Acute Care and
Behavioral Health Services – The Committee gave a
favorable review of capitation rates associated with
the integration of Acute and Behavioral Health Care
for the Seriously Mentally Ill residing in Maricopa County
effective April 1, 2014, with the following provisions:
1)
2)

DHS report to the Committee by May 1, 2014 on
the reasons for not using a reinsurance program.
AHCCCS report to the Committee on the status of
its discussions with the federal government
concerning childless adult cost sharing provisions.

9

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – APRIL 2014

JCCR Meeting
At its April 8 and 10, 2014 meetings, the Joint Committee
on Capital Review considered the following issues:
University of Arizona – Review of Phase 1 of McKale
Memorial Center Improvements – The Committee gave a
favorable review to the University of Arizona’s $12.5 million
bond issuance to fund Phase 1 of the McKale Memorial
Center Improvements with the standard university
financing provisions. The total project cost is $25 million,
with $12.5 million being paid in cash and the other $12.5
million being paid with a system revenue bond, which will
be paid from gift revenues raised by the athletic
department.
Northern Arizona University – Review of Aquatics and
Tennis Project and Code and Safety Renovations – The
Committee gave a favorable review to NAU’s $57 million
revenue bond issuance. Of that amount, $44.5 million will
fund construction of a new aquatics and tennis facility
with the remaining $12.5 million going to fund code and
safety renovations on the NAU Flagstaff campus. The
renovations will impact 24 buildings and include upgrades
to sprinklers, new smoke detectors and strobe compliance
for alarm systems. The favorable review includes the
standard university financing provisions along with a
provision that the aquatic center retain the name
‘Douglas J. Wall Aquatics Center’.
Arizona State University – Review of Center for Law and
Society Project and Psychology Building Renovations – The
Committee gave a favorable review of ASU’s $136.7
million system revenue bond issuance to fund the
construction of a new Center for Law and Society at the
ASU Downtown Phoenix Campus and renovations to the
Psychology building at the ASU Tempe Campus. The total
cost for the Center for Law and Society will be $129 million
with $114 million funded with system revenue bonds and
$15 million paid in gift proceeds. The Psychology Building
renovations are expected to cost $22.7 million, to be paid
entirely from system revenue bond proceeds. The
Committee gave a favorable review of the project with
the standard university financing provisions along with an
additional provision that ASU shall provide a report to
JCCR by December 31, 2014 on the projected fund
sources for the law school debt service for each fiscal
year through FY 2020.
Arizona Department of Transportation – Review of De-Icer
Building Project – The Committee gave a favorable review
of ADOT’s $2.3 million expenditure plan for 5 de-icer
buildings with the provision that ADOT report any project
reallocations above $100,000 to the Committee. The
buildings will house chemicals, bulk sand and cinders to
be used during winter months to de-ice highways. The 5
de-icer buildings will be located in Alpine, Fort Rock, Oak
Creek, Payson and Safford.

Arizona State Lottery Commission – Review of FY 2014
Building Renewal Allocation Plan – The Committee
gave a favorable review of the State Lottery
Commission’s expenditure plan of $90,300 from the
State Lottery Fund to fund building renewal of the
Commission’s Phoenix facility with the provision that the
agency subsequently provides its specific expenditure
plan to the JLBC staff. The renewal plan consists of
repairs to fix existing rain water leaks, potential water
damage and floor repairs.
Arizona Department of Administration – Consider
Recommending FY 2014 Partial Rent Exemption – The
Committee recommended a technical rent exemption
for the State Real Estate Department.
School Facilities Board (SFB) – Review of LeasePurchasing Refinancing – The Committee gave a
favorable review to the School Facilities Board’s
proposal to use existing statutory authority (Laws 2013,
1st Special Session, Chapter 3) for a second refinancing
proposal with additional debt service savings of $8.4
million. The favorable review included the provision that
SFB submit a final debt service schedule associated
with the refinancing agreement. The Committee had
already reviewed a refinancing proposal by SFB in
October 2013 to reduce its debt service payments by
$5.2 million

10

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – APRIL 2014

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
Arizona Department of Administration – Report on State
Expenditures for the National Public Safety Broadband
Network Initiative - Following September 11, 2001, the
National 9/11 Commission recommended the
establishment of a nationwide, interoperable public safety
communications network to provide solutions to
communications challenges facing first responders. In
response, Congress passed legislation in 2012 creating the
National Public Safety Broadband Network (NPSBN)
initiative in an effort to build a nationwide, standardsbased, high-speed data network by reserving a part of
the electromagnetic spectrum specifically for public
safety, the 700 MHz broadband spectrum, or the “D
Block.”
More than $7 billion has been allocated for the NPSBN
initiative, with a majority of funding being raised through
the sale of rights to transmit signals over specific bands of
the electromagnetic spectrum that were surrendered by
television broadcasters during the transition from analog
to digital television. Part of the $7 billion allocated for this
initiative includes a grant program for state and local
governments, the State and Local Implementation Grant
Program (SLIGP). Approximately $118 million in formulabased grants were available to assist regional, state, local,
and tribal government entities in preparing for the
implementation of the NPSBN initiative.
Arizona was awarded $3.0 million through the SLIGP
formula in August 2013, however sequestration delayed
the distribution of funds until November 2013. The $3.0
million grant will be spent in 2 phases, each about $1.5
million. The first phase will be dedicated to education and
outreach, while the second phase will be devoted to
gathering relevant data. One requirement of the grant is
that Arizona and local governments additionally
contribute at least $745,200 in in-kind contributions to the
project.
The Arizona Department of Administration (ADOA) has
reported that the $3.0 million grant includes $2.2 million for
6 FTE Positions, including 3 FTE Positions for program
contract staff, and an additional 3 FTE Positions working
part-time as vendors and contractors for the project. In
addition, $449,000 would be spent on travel, $213,000
would be spent on program support services and web
development, and $104,000 would be spent on
equipment and supplies.
At its October 29, 2013 meeting, the JLBC required ADOA
to provide quarterly reports on the progress of SLIGP
expenditures. ADOA has reported that $105,200 has been
spent as of December 31, 2013. This amount was used to
identify 850 first responder agencies in more than 1,400
locations in the state, in addition to various secondary
agencies that support first responders, such as
transportation, public works, and public health agencies.

Funds were additionally used to make presentations to
Arizona’s regional wireless cooperatives, and to begin
planning 145 meetings for education and outreach to
other stakeholders, including:

15 county meetings

78 local meetings

22 tribal meetings

30 association and other meetings
(Ben Henderson)
AHCCCS, DES, & DHS – Report on Preliminary Actuarial
Estimates for FY 2015 Capitation Rate Changes –
Pursuant to FY 2014 General Appropriation Act
footnotes, AHCCCS has submitted a report on
preliminary Medicaid capitation rate increases for
contract year (CY) 2015. Their submission includes
information for AHCCCS, the Department of Economic
Security (DES), and the Department of Health Services
(DHS).
In their report, AHCCCS provided information on
components of potential CY 2015 capitation rate
changes. With one exception, the enacted FY 2015
budget provides funding for these issues:






Average increases of 2-3% based on medical
expense trends, utilization trends, and reinsurance
changes. AHCCCS’ actuaries though, did not
update estimates for trends occurring since fall of
2013.
A federally mandated increase in primary care
provider rates through December 31, 2014 to
comply with the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and a
legislatively mandated 9% increase in ground
ambulance rates.
An approximate 1.3% increase for a nationwide
health insurer fee included in the ACA.

The enacted FY 2015 budget included 2% capitation
rate funding growth for the developmentally disabled
population served by DES. The budget specified this
growth would include a 2% provider rate increase. The
2% capitation adjustment, however, may be insufficient
to fund both the provider rate increase and higher
utilization trends. (Jon Stall)
Attorney General – Report on Incarceration Costs
Offset by Monetary Judgments – Pursuant to A.R.S. §
31-238, the Office of the Attorney General (OAG) is
required to report semiannually on the use of monetary
judgments awarded to inmates to offset the costs of
incarceration. From June 30, 2013 to January 1, 2014,
the state did not exercise its right to offset the costs of
incarcerating inmates under this statute, since no
monetary judgments were awarded during this time
period. The agency

11

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – APRIL 2014

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
does, however, indicate that it believes the existing
statute results in reduced negotiated settlement
amounts, and also discourages the filing of frivolous
lawsuits. (Matt Gress)
Auditor General - Report on Transportation Services for
Foster Care Clients - The FY 2014 Health and Welfare
Budget Reconciliation Bill instructs the Auditor General
to submit a report addressing expenditures for
transportation as part of Children Support Services,
including the types of funded services provided along
with cost details for those services. In FY 2013, the
Department of Economic Security (DES) paid $14.6
million to vendors that provided transportation services
to child protective services (CPS) clients, or 84% more
than FY 2011. In comparison, children in out-of-home
care increased by 32% from FY 2011 to FY 2013.
In order to evaluate transportation services and ensure
that this system provides the necessary data to evaluate
the appropriateness and cost-effectiveness of
contracting for these services, the Auditor General
recommends that DES develop and implement a
performance measurement system. For example, DES’
transportation contracts include performance
expectations regarding the timeliness of pickups,
acceptance of referrals, and driver no shows. DES,
however, does not require providers to report whether
these performance expectations have been met. DES
has agreed to implement the Auditor General’s
recommendation to implement a performance
measurement system for transportation services.
The Auditor General also recommends additional
internal controls to ensure proper payments to
transportation providers, such as written policies and
procedures, prepayment review, and supervisory
review. DES disagrees with the Auditor General’s
recommendation of implementing prepayment and
supervisory reviews; instead, DES proposes to increase
the number of post-payment reviews for transportation
services.
The largest category of transportation expenditures was
contracted taxies and shuttle services ($13.5 million)
followed by ambulances ($774,000), bus passes
($261,500), reimbursements to non-contracted providers
and foster care parents ($97,000), and car seats
($3,900).
The Auditor General contacted the other CPS agencies
in the western states and asked how they provided
transportation services to CPS clients. Of the 5 states
that responded, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, and Utah
indicated that they do not contract for transportation
services for their CPS clients. The fifth state, Washington,
stated that it contracts with individuals to supervise
parent-child visitation, and these contracts include
reimbursement for transporting clients to and from visits.

This is the second of 3 audits on Children Support
Services. The final report on emergency and residential
placement will be published in October 2014. (Ben
Beutler)
Department of Education – Budget Status Report –
Pursuant to A.R.S. § 35-131D, the Arizona Department of
Education (ADE) recently provided an update regarding
its budget status for FY 2014. In that report, ADE
estimates that it will experience a $(51.8) million net
funding shortfall for formula programs for FY 2014. The
estimated shortfall includes a $(62.2) million Basic State
Aid shortfall and $10.4 million Homeowner’s Rebate
surplus. The current report does not yet reflect a $4.8
million increase in State Equalization Tax Rate (SETR)
revenues that are anticipated for FY 2014, which
would reduce the reported shortfall to $47.0 million. The
recently enacted budget appropriated $47.0 million in
supplemental funding to ADE to address this projected
shortfall. ADE’s final formula costs for FY 2014 will not be
known until later in the year due to ongoing data
updates and corrections. (Steve Schimpp)

12

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – APRIL 2014

March Spending
March 2014 General Fund spending of $478.2 million
was $114.5 million greater than March 2013. Year-todate, spending is $7.1 billion, or $181.5 million above last
year.



Year-to-date, the Department of Education has spent
$291.2 million more than the prior year due to
increased enrollment, increased per-pupil costs, and
school district charter conversions.

(See Tables 8 & 9).



Department of Economic Security expenditures are
$61.0 million greater through March due to increased
funding levels for the agency in FY 2014.

Table 8
General Fund Spending ($ in Millions)
Change From

YTD Change

Mar 14

Mar 13

Year-to-Date

from FY 13

AHCCCS

86.2

(42.3)

987.6

(47.4)

Corrections

68.7

(0.7)

693.4

22.6

Economic Security

3.3

(1.5)

591.8

61.0

Education

217.8

144.1

2,954.6

291.2

Health Serv ices

13.8

(0.6)

498.7

(39.3)

Public Safety

1.7

0.5

23.7

2.3

School Facilities Board

0.1

(0.0)

188.4

15.8

Univ ersities

43.7

4.3

604.5

20.8

Agency

Leaseback Debt Serv ice

0.0

0.0

84.1

0.0

Other

42.9

10.7

441.9

54.5

Total

478.2

114.5

7,068.7

381.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

(200.0)

478.2

114.5

7,068.7

181.5

Budget Stabilization
Fund Deposit
Grand Total

13

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – APRIL 2014

Table 9

General Fund Spending
($ in Thousands)
Agency
Dept. of Admin./Automation Projects Fund
ADOA – Sale/Leaseback Debt Service
Office of Administrative Hearings
Department of Agriculture
AHCCCS
Attorney General
AZ Capital Post Conviction Public
Defender
State Board of Charter Schools
AZ Commerce Authority
Community Colleges
Corporation Commission
Department of Corrections
County Funding
AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind
Department of Economic Security
Department of Education
DEMA
DEQ – WQARF
Office of Equal Opportunity
State Board of Equalization
Board of Executive Clemency
Department of Financial Institutions
Department of Fire, Bldg and Life Safety
State Forester
Arizona Geological Survey
Governor/OSPB
Department of Health Services
Arizona Historical Society
Prescott Historical Society of AZ
Independent Redistricting Comm.
Commission of Indian Affairs
Department of Insurance
Judiciary
Supreme/Superior Court
Court of Appeals
Department of Juvenile Corrections

Mar 14
4,209.9
56.0
546.5
86,199.8
1,470.4
-

Change from
Mar 13
3,626.6
27.3
23.0
(42,274.6)
(188.8)
-

Year-to-Date
33,342.6
84,119.8
637.5
5,713.2
987,606.8
15,155.0
-

YTD Change
from FY 13
12,409.5
24.9
167.3
(47,425.1)
(908.1)
(4.4)

40.6

(11.6)

613.6

53.4

2,625.0
1,841.6
36.3
68,664.5
932.6
3,325.0
217,757.8
1,354.4
1.0
20.9
78.8
234.8
157.4
193.4
268.4
346.8
13,788.1
198.7
51.8
59.7
3.3
361.4

1,765.1
(22.4)
(664.3)
499.5
(1,519.8)
144,147.5
708.8
1.0
0.8
15.1
(40.9)
112.9
(109.7)
257.4
(245.2)
(612.0)
21.4
5.0
(473.7)
(0.7)
18.0

23,625.0
52,719.5
352.9
693,384.8
7,150.5
16,326.5
591,797.0
2,954,613.6
5,778.9
7,000.0
139.5
410.6
612.2
2,156.2
1,475.9
2,433.2
729.6
6,895.3
498,726.2
2,395.2
511.5
1,014.6
39.8
3,885.2

1,330.0
(83.3)
22,605.2
7,150.5
352.4
61,018.1
291,249.7
(266.1)
84.0
13.8
22.6
63.2
200.2
(1,851.1)
84.8
521.5
(39,261.2)
26.1
8.2
(610.2)
2.0
303.3

9,794.4
1,039.9
3,066.7

(157.0)
35.3
67.2

68,398.2
10,211.3
28,770.7

955.3
296.3
(1,534.3)

14

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – APRIL 2014

Table 9 (Continued)

Agency
State Land Department
Law Enforcement Merit System
Legislature
Auditor General
House of Representatives
Joint Legislative Budget Comm.
Legislative Council
Senate
Mine Inspector
Nav. Streams & Adjudication
Occupational Safety and Health Review
Phoenix Convention Center
Pioneers’ Home
Comm. for Postsecondary Ed.
Department of Public Safety
Public Safety Personnel Retirement System
Arizona Department of Racing
Radiation Regulatory Agency
Real Estate Department
Department of Revenue
School Facilities Board
Secretary of State
Tax Appeals Board
Office of Tourism
Department of Transportation
Commission on Uniform State Laws
Universities
Board of Regents
Arizona State University
Northern Arizona University
University of Arizona
Department of Veteran Services
Department of Water Resources
Department of Weights & Measures
Other - JP Salaries Distribution
Other
Total
Budget Stabilization Fund Deposit
Grand Total

Mar 14
901.1
-

Change from
Mar 13
852.6
(5.8)

Year-to-Date
8,374.1
-

YTD Change
from FY 13
7,621.9
(49.4)

1,414.1
1,049.0
147.8
383.6
697.2
87.3
26.9
(0.3)
1,673.9
48.8
139.2
4,842.1
97.9
747.8
18.3
2,068.5
1.4
-

51.9
33.2
7.2
18.2
(0.7)
3.3
18.5
(214.5)
494.4
(3.2)
(1.0)
(75.6)
1,962.7
(7.0)
75.7
0.5
1,870.5
1.3
-

13,860.8
9,114.9
1,493.0
5,013.7
6,072.9
877.4
113.7
2.3
20,449.0
1,179.7
1,396.8
23,682.1
5,000.0
1,875.9
1,076.2
1,821.3
37,262.1
188,386.3
8,787.3
199.7
6,336.2
5.1
56.7

1,171.3
666.6
99.9
(401.1)
301.9
62.7
25.2
2.3
14,854.0
308.1
0.1
2,280.1
5,000.0
(1.4)
5.8
84.3
7,186.4
15,843.5
(4,707.5)
6.1
2,844.3
(14.4)
56.7

897.6
19,640.4
6,562.5
16,596.4
370.1
877.6
93.7
114.9
4.0
478,227.2
478,227.2

720.6
2,259.2
638.3
725.6
30.3
79.0
(3.4)
61.1
(63.8)
114,540.2
114,540.2

19,317.9
267,339.2
89,557.4
228,297.2
3,732.6
7,702.5
871.9
691.7
11.4
7,068,701.3
7,068,701.3

(11,804.0)
20,332.9
5,744.9
6,530.6
(213.1)
876.3
(123.1)
(18.7)
(56.4)
381,515.6
(200,000.0)
181,515.6

Total Non-Farm Employment

Tracking Arizona’s Recovery
April 2014
Appendix A

2,800

2,700

Thousands of Jobs

Slide:
2……Total Non-Farm Employment
3……Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
4……State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
5……State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting
Category
6……Single Family Building Permits
7……Maricopa County Pending Foreclosures
8……Coincident Index

2,600

2,500

2,400

2,300

2,200

JLBC

2002

2003 2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

JUL

JAN

JAN

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2005

JLBC

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2001

1

JAN

JAN

2,100

2013 2014

2

Not seasonally adjusted

State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
$225

40,000
35,000

$200

$ in Millions

30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000

$150

$125

2005

2011

2012 2013 2014

3

* Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Jan 12

Apr 12

Oct 11

July 11

Jan 11

Apr 11

Oct 10

Apr 10

July 10

Jan 10

Oct 09

Apr 09

July 09

Jan 09

Oct 08

July 08

Apr 08

Jan 08

Oct 07

July 07

Apr 07

JUL

JAN

JAN

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

2010

JAN

JUL

2008 2009

Not seasonally adjusted

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2007

JAN

JUL

2006

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2004

JAN

JUL

2003

JAN

JUL

2002

JAN

JUL

JAN

JAN

2001

Jan 07

$100

Oct 06

10,000
5,000

JLBC

$175

July 06

Total Monthly Claims for UI Benefits

45,000

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

JLBC

* January 2014 collections reflect the reclassification of approximately $40
million of revenue from other tax categories to retail collections

4

State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting Category

Single Family Building Permits
100,000

$100

Single Family Building Permits

90,000

$50

$25

70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000

30,000
20,000

Jan-14

2001
Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

JLBC

5

2003

2004

2005

JLBC

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

JUL

JAN

JAN

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2002

2013 2014

2011 2012

6

12-Month Moving Sum

Maricopa County Pending Foreclosures

Economic Activity Index
210

50,000

200

Coincident Index Value

60,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

190
180
170
160
150

2003

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

An initial notice of trustee sale has been recorded but final sale has not yet occurred

2013

7

2001

JLBC

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Source: Coincident Index – Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Combines four state-level indicators
(employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary
disbursements) to summarize current economic conditions.

JAN

JUL

JAN

JULY

JUL

JAN

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JUL

JAN

2014

JAN

140

JAN

JUL

JAN

JULY

JAN

JUL

JUL

JAN

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JUL

2005

JAN

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JUL

2002

JAN

JAN

0

JLBC

JAN

JUL

0
JAN

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan 12

Apr 12

Oct 11

Jan 11

Apr 11

July 11

Oct 10

July 10

Jan 10

Apr 10

Oct 09

July 09

Jan 09

Apr 09

Oct 08

July 08

Jan 08

Oct 07

Apr 08

July 07

Jan 07

Oct 06

Apr 07

10,000
July 06

$0

80,000

JAN

$ in Millions

$75

2013

2014

8