JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights

March 2014

Summary
1716 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Phone:
(602) 926-5491
Fax:
(602) 926-5416

February General Fund revenue collections
totaled $289.1 million. Base revenues, which
exclude one-time adjustments, were 5.4%
above February 2013. The year-over-year
change excludes the temporary 1-cent sales
tax which expired at the end of May 2013.
Each of the state’s 3 main revenue categories
(Sales, Individual Income, and Corporate
Income Taxes) showed increases over the
prior year. However Sales and Individual
Income Taxes were both below the Baseline
forecast for the month, while Corporate
Income Tax was above forecast.

www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

“Overall
February
General Fund
collections were
$2.5 million
above the
Baseline
forecast. Yearto-date, overall
collections are

Overall February General Fund collections
were $2.5 million above the Baseline forecast.
Year-to-date, overall collections are $(16.0)
million below the forecast, while base
revenues are 2.8% higher than last year.

Medicaid Expansion Enrollment
On January 1, 2014, Medicaid coverage was
expanded to adults from 100-133% of the
federal poverty level (FPL) and restored to
childless adults from 0-100% FPL. From July
2011 through December 2013, the childless
adult program did not allow new participants.
As of March 1, expansion has resulted in 5,806
new adult enrollees while restoration has
increased the childless adult program by
88,383 enrollees. The FY 2015 Baseline
assumes that, by June 2014, expansion would
result in 24,000 adult expansion enrollees and
a 76,000 increase in childless adult enrollees.
It is assumed that the phase-in of new
enrollees will continue through December
2014.

In comparison to revenue of $289.1 million,
February 2014 spending was $510.6 million,
which is an increase of $147.5 million from the
prior year.
Fiscal year-to-date, General Fund revenues of
$5.37 billion have been offset by $6.59 billion
of expenditures.
The state’s fiscal health can also be measured
by the operating fund balance. The state
pays its bills out of the operating fund
balance, which consists of the General Fund
and certain dedicated funds. The operating
balance is at $2.1 billion as of mid-March 2014.
In addition, the state’s Budget Stabilization
Fund has a balance of $454.1 million.

$(16.0) million
below the
forecast.”

Table of Contents
This report has been
prepared for the Arizona
Legislature by the Joint
Legislative Budget
Committee Staff on
March 20, 2014.

Summary

Summary of Recent Agency Reports

February Revenues ................................................ 2

 DES – Report on Transfer of TANF to SSBG ...... 7

Economic Indicators .............................................. 4

February Spending ................................................. 7
Tracking Arizona’s Recovery .............Appendix A

2

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2014

February Revenues
Table 1

General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions)

February
Year-to-Date

FY 2014
Collections
$ 289.1
$ 5,365.8

Sales Tax collections of $314.4 million were 1.9% above
February 2013 and $(6.2) million below the forecast for the
month. The year-over-year change amounts exclude the
temporary 1-cent sales tax which expired at the end of
May 2013.
For the first 8 months of the fiscal year, sales tax
collections are 5.5% above the prior year and are $(11.0)
million below forecast.
Table 2 displays the February growth rates for the largest
sales tax categories.
Retail and contracting together account for about 60%
of all sales tax revenues. February retail, which reflects
January sales, increased by only 2.4%. Year-to-date,
retail sales are up 9.0%.
Contracting collections have generally been much
more volatile than retail. However, contracting has
shown double digit increases every month during the
current fiscal year.
Table 2
Sales Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year
Retail
Contracting
Use
Restaurant & Bar

February
2.4%
15.0%
(13.3)%
5.0%

YTD
9.0%
15.6%
(15.0)%
3.5%

Individual Income Tax net revenues were $(31.9) million in
February, which was $14.7 million above the prior year.
The negative amount primarily reflects refund payments
associated with income tax returns filed in February.
Collections were $(2.5) million below the forecast for the
month. Year-to-date, revenue has grown 3.1% over the
prior year.
As indicated in Table 3, withholding increased by 6.9%
for the month. The February increase brings withholding
tax collections for the fiscal year to 2.7% over the prior
year. This amount is $(3.2) million below the Baseline
forecast.
February estimated and final payments were 20.8%
above last year. Year-to-date, payments are up 4.8%

Difference From
Budget Forecast
$ 2.5
$ (16.0)

Difference
From FY 2013
$ (50.4)
$ (383.1)

compared to the prior year, and are $1.3 million above
the Baseline forecast.
February refunds were 2.3% above last year, and were
$(8.8) million below forecast. Year-to-date, refunds are
2.6% greater than the prior year.
Table 3
Individual Income Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year
Withholding
Estimated +
Final Payments
Refunds

February
6.9%

YTD
2.7%

20.8%
2.3%

4.8%
2.6%

Corporate Income Tax net collections were $15.1 million
in February, which is $2.2 million greater than February of
the prior year. Year-to-date, collections are down (14.0)%
compared to the prior year, and are $(2.1) million below
the Baseline forecast.
The Lottery Commission reports that February ticket sales
were $66.8 million, which is $10.9 million, or 19.6%, above
sales in the prior year. Year-to-date ticket sales are
$476.4 million, which is 9.4% above last year’s sales.
Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) revenues consist of
gasoline and use fuel (diesel) tax, motor carrier fees
(commercial carriers), vehicle license tax and
registration fees, and various other fees. HURF
collections of $103.7 million in February were down $(0.3)
million, or (0.2)%, compared to February of last year.
Year-to-date revenues are 2.7% above collections in the
prior year, and are $13.6 million above the Baseline
forecast.
One-Time Transfers were $14.9 million in February. This
amount reflects “reconciliation payments” from
AHCCCS health care plans, which occur when the
plans’ profits exceed the statutory limit of 3%. This
amount was not included in the Baseline forecast.

Table 4

General Fund Revenue
Change from Previous Year and January Baseline Forecast
February 2014
Current Month

FY 2014 YTD (Eight Months)

Change From
Actual

February 2013

February 2014

Amount

Change from
Actual

Baseline Forecast

Percent

Amount

Percent

February 2013

February 2014

Amount

Baseline Forecast
Percent

Amount

Percent

Taxes
Sales and Use
Income - Individual
- Corporate
Property
Luxury - Tobacco
- Liquor
Insurance Premium
Estate
Other Taxes
Sub-Total Taxes

$314,431,338

$5,796,728

1.9 %

($6,240,022)

$2,667,463,685

$139,664,587

(31,870,667)

14,650,445

--

(2,493,057)

8.5

2,322,053,914

69,831,707

3.1

(7,796,390)

(0.3)

15,142,632

2,203,118

17.0

3,383,514

28.8

283,066,064

(46,009,917)

(14.0)

(2,135,188)

(0.7)

345,847

77,239

28.8

45,847

15.3

11,002,993

2,536,290

30.0

659,564

6.4

1,400,000

(69,044)

(4.7)

0

0.0

16,985,980

977,790

6.1

1,277,257

8.1

3,100,000

90,802

3.0

0

0.0

22,992,204

1,890,898

9.0

1,979,211

9.4

5,047,014

1,011,319

25.1

2,967,314

142.7

158,434,490

5,559,942

3.6

75,404

0.0

0
29,512
$307,625,676

0
(292)
$23,760,315

-(1.0)
8.4 %

0
(45,488)
($2,381,892)

(1.9) %

--

0

(60.7)

342,970

(0.8) %

$5,482,342,301

0
(3,708)
$174,447,590

5.5 %

-(1.1)
3.3 %

($11,014,410)

0
(47,362)
($17,001,913)

(0.4) %

-(12.1)
(0.3) %

Other Revenue
Lottery
License, Fees and Permits
Interest
Sales and Services
Other Miscellaneous
Disproportionate Share
Transfers and Reimbursements
Sub-Total Other Revenue
TOTAL BASE REVENUE

0

(4,991,580)

(100.0)

(5,500,000)

(100.0)

26,721,618

111,698

0.4

1,684,334

(27,867)

(1.6)

(515,666)

(23.4)

18,997,556

(650,754)

(3.3)

(1,020,787)

(5.1)

(4,890,450)

(99.7)

(1,995,624)

(99.2)

2,853

701

32.6

--

16,217

10,539,793

929,694

9.7

(460,207)

(4.2)

19,881,350

656,270

69,962

11.9

56,270

9.4

7,863,717

0

0

333,175

(3,230,127)

$13,216,424

($7,249,218)

$320,842,100

$16,511,097

-(90.6)

2,853

0
(3,666,825)

722,844
(9,938,171)

--

0

(91.7)

15,834,297

(6,480,251)
($21,125,084)

(35.4) %

($10,083,576)

(43.3) %

$89,314,754

5.4 %

($12,465,468)

(3.7) %

$5,571,657,056

0

$153,322,507

3.8
(55.8)
-(29.0)

934,750

3.6

(936,206)

(4.5)

(1,600,099)

(16.9)

0
(9,314,456)

-(37.0)

(19.1) %

($13,932,422)

(13.5) %

2.8 %

($30,934,334)

(0.6) %

Other Adjustments
Urban Revenue Sharing
One-Time Transfers
Sales Tax - 1¢ Increase
Sub-Total Other Adjustments
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE

(46,709,330)

(3,910,660)

14,949,735

14,949,735

0
(31,759,595)

(77,970,099)

9.1

(374,163,873)

(31,774,513)

--

14,949,735

(0)

0.0
--

165,646,297

129,646,297

360.1

(100.0)

0

--

2,611,367

(634,309,968)

(99.6)

(66,931,024)

-- %

14,949,735

(32.0) %

(205,906,210)

$289,082,505

($50,419,927)

(14.9) %

$2,484,267

0.9 %

$5,365,750,846

$103,713,041

($257,740)

(0.2) %

($1,297,448)

(1.2) %

$817,595,032

9.3

(536,438,185)

-- %

($383,115,678)

$21,538,748

(0)

0.0

14,954,736

9.9

0

0.0

14,954,735

(6.8) %

(6.7) %

($15,979,599)

(0.3) %

2.7 %

$13,578,186

1.7 %

Non-General Funds
Highway User Revenue Fund

4

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2014

Recent Economic Indicators
ARIZONA

NATIONAL

“The quarterly
decrease in
residential
investment
(housing) was
the first since the
third quarter of
2010.”

According to the U.S. Department of
Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, the
U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
increased at an annual rate of 2.4% in the
fourth quarter of 2013. This estimate was a
downward revision of the preliminary 3.2%
figure and a further deceleration from the 4.1%
growth in the third quarter. The deceleration
was due to decreases in federal government
spending and residential investment and a
slowdown in inventory accumulation. The
quarterly decrease in residential investment
(housing) was the first since the third quarter of
2010.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer
Confidence Index decreased (1.6)% in February
but grew 14.9% since February 2013. The
component of the index that measures
optimism about current circumstances
increased by 5.7% since January, but the
component that looks at confidence in the
near future dropped by (6.3)%.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Economic
Index resumed its growth, increasing by 0.3% in
January, following a pause in December. Of
the index’s 10 components, 6 improved during
the month. During the month, improvement in
several measures of financial markets and in
initial unemployment claims more than offset
negative contributions to the index from
worsening consumer confidence, building
permit creation, and orders of manufactured
goods.
Consumer prices, as measured by the U.S.
Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased 0.1% in
February and 1.1% above February 2013 prices.
A 0.4% increase in food prices drove more than
half of the monthly increase. Falling gasoline
prices more than offset oil and natural gas
increases and pulled the overall energy index
down during the month. Annual inflation
measured by the index in the future is expected
to strongly influence the pace the Federal
Reserve Bank reduces their monetary stimulus
to the economy.

Housing
The number of Maricopa County pending
foreclosures decreased from 5,698 in January
to 5,424 in February. The February total is
significantly below the peak in December
2009 (51,466). See Appendix A – Tracking
Arizona’s Recovery.
The total housing inventory in the Greater
Phoenix area increased from 21,718 in
February 2013 to 29,661 in February 2014, a
36.6% increase.
In the Metropolitan Phoenix area, the median
price of a single family home was $196,900 in
January. This represents a (4.0)% decrease
from December, and a 20.8% increase from
January of last year.
Another measure of the health of the Arizona
real estate market is permitting activity. For
the 3-month period through January, a total
of 1,244 single-family building permits had
been issued statewide, an 8.0% increase from
last year. While permitting activity has seen
gains, the current level of permitting remains
far below a more normal 3-month average of
3,000 to 4,000 permits. See Appendix A –
Tracking Arizona’s Recovery.
Employment
As a result of the annual benchmarking
revision of establishment survey data, the
Department of Administration (DOA) reported
in March that Arizona nonfarm employment
growth in 2012 and 2013 was marginally
higher than previous estimates had indicated.
By incorporating more comprehensive data
based on unemployment insurance records,
the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
determined that the state added, on
average, 3,200 and 6,000 more jobs per
month in 2012 and 2013, respectively, than
previously reported. On an average annual
basis, the job growth in 2013 was 0.1% higher
than previously estimated. Overall, the state
had a net increase of 51,700 (+2.1%) nonfarm
jobs in 2013, which was only marginally higher
than the 51,400 net job gain in 2012.

5

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2014

Recent Economic Indicators (Continued)

“As part of
Medicaid
expansion and

The latest estimate of nonfarm employment
showed that the state shed (42,200) jobs in
January over December in the prior year. Job
losses typically occur in January when the
holiday season comes to an end. The
average job reduction for the month of
January in the prior 10 years was (57,900).
Compared to January 2013, nonfarm
employment was up by 2.2%, or 55,400 jobs.

[childless adult]

The household survey data used to estimate
the state’s unemployment rate was also
revised in March. The historical revision, which
essentially covered the period from October
2012 through October 2013, was relatively
small. The state’s seasonally adjusted jobless
rate fell from 7.6% in December to 7.5% in
January. The U.S. unemployment rate in
January was significantly lower at 6.6%.

program again

State Agency Data

allowed new

At the beginning of March, total AHCCCS
caseloads increased to 1.30 million members.
Overall, AHCCCS caseloads are currently
3.2% above March 2013 levels. The traditional
acute care AHCCCS population, which
consists primarily of lower income children
and their parents remained the same since
last month while decreasing (0.5)% since last
year. The total population in this program is
approximately 877,000.

restoration that
began January
1, 2014, the

participants.
Since the
December MFH,
the population
has increased by
88,383 to reach a
level of 156,153.”

From July 2011 through December 2013, the
childless adult program did not allow new
participants. As part of Medicaid expansion
and restoration that began January 1, 2014,
the program again allowed new participants.
Since the December MFH, the population has
increased by 88,383 to reach a level of
156,153. As a whole, the Proposition 204
program has increased 8.2% compared to the
prior month, and 30.7% from the prior year.
Medicaid expansion also resulted in the
creation of a new member population
consisting of adults from 100% to 133% of the
Federal Poverty Level (FPL). At the beginning
of March, 5,806 individuals had enrolled under
this new population.
KidsCare I provides coverage for 2,143
children with incomes above those in the
traditional population. Its enrollment has
declined since a freeze was implemented in
January 2010. Enrollment in the program has
declined (72.1)% from the prior year, though a
portion of that decrease is the result of

transferring 3,300 children that became
eligible for the Traditional acute care
program on January 1, 2014.
There were 31,683 TANF recipients in the state
in January, a monthly caseload decrease of
(5.0)%. Year-over-year, the number of TANF
recipients has declined by (17.9)%. The
statutory lifetime limit on cash assistance is 24
months.
The appropriation for TANF cash assistance in
the FY 2014 budget funds an average
monthly caseload of approximately 34,346
recipients in FY 2014. The 31,683 TANF
recipients includes 1,675 tribal recipients.
These recipients belong to tribes that operate
their own TANF program but contract with the
state for program administration, meaning
there were 30,008 state-funded TANF
recipients in January.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance
Program (SNAP), formerly known as Food
Stamps, provides assistance to low-income
households to purchase food. In January,
there were a total 1.0 million food stamp
recipients in the state, a (1.7)% decrease over
the prior month. Compared to the same
month last year, food stamp participation was
down by (5.6)%. The number of SNAP
recipients began increasing steadily in July
2007, after several years in the 550,000 to
575,000 range.
The 3-month average count of the
Department of Corrections (ADC) inmate
population increased to 41,258 inmates in
February 2013. Relative to the prior 3-month
period, the population has increased by 131
inmates. Compared to a year ago, the
population has increased by 1,212 inmates.

6

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2014

Recent Economic Indicators

(Continued)

Table 5

ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Indicator
Arizona
- Unemployment Rate (SA)
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Unemployment Insurance Recipients
- Non-Farm Employment - Total
Manufacturing
Construction
- Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing
- Contracting Tax Receipts (3-month average)
- Retail Sales Tax Receipts (3-month average)
- Residential Building Permits (3-month moving average)
Single-family
Multi-unit
- Greater Phoenix Home Sales
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Greater Phoenix Median Home Price
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Greater Phoenix S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
(Jan. 2000 = 100)
- Foreclosure Activity, Maricopa County
Pending Foreclosures (Active Notices)
- Greater Phoenix Total Housing Inventory, (ARMLS)
- Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers
- Revenue Per Available Hotel Room
- Arizona Average Natural Gas Price
($ per thousand cubic feet)
- Arizona Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Arizona Coincident Index (July 1992 = 100)
- Arizona Leading Index -- 6 month projected growth rate
- Arizona Personal Income
- Arizona Population
- AHCCCS Recipients
Acute Care Traditional
Prop 204 Childless Adults
Other Prop 204
Adult Expansion
Kids Care I
Long-Term Care – Elderly & DD
Emergency Services
- TANF Recipients
- SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients
- ADC Inmate Growth (3-month average)
- Probation Caseload
Non-Maricopa
Maricopa County
United States
- Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2009 dollars, SAAR)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Leading Indicators Index (2004 = 100)
- U.S. Semiconductor Billings (3-month moving average)
- Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100)

Time Period

Current Value

Change From
Prior Period

January
January
January
January
January
January
January
Dec-Feb
Dec-Feb

7.5%
23,110
35,396
2.53 million
153,600
121,200
39.2
$39.0 million
$190.9 million

(0.1) %
24.6%
1.6%
(1.6)%
(1.0)%
(2.4)%
(4.4)%
(4.2)%
0.5%

Nov-Jan
Nov-Jan

1,244
661

(4.5)%
13.8%

8.0%
(8.6)%

January
January

5,356
904

(18.8)%
(14.3)%

(22.8)%
(17.8)%

January
January
December

$196,900
$118,250
144.48

(4.0)%
(1.5)%
(0.3)%

20.8%
16.5%
15.3%

February

5,424

(4.8)%

(48.8)%

February
December
January
December

29,661
3.53 million
$62.19
$5.10

4.2%
9.6%
11.4%
(1.2)%

1st Quarter 2014
December
Oct-Dec
3rd Quarter 2013
July 1, 2013
March

January
January
Dec-Feb

68.9
184.50
3.2%
$246.5 billion
6.63 million
1,303,787
876,911
156,153
143,486
5,806
2,143
54,714
64,574
31,683
1,046,459
41,258

3.0%
0.2%
0.5%
0.9%
N/A
2.2%
0.0%
18.6%
0.1%
90.8%
-6.4%
0.1%
0.6%
(5.0)%
(1.7)%
131 inmates

N/A
2.4%
0.3%
4.5%
1.2%
3.2%
(0.5)%
91.2%
(2.8)%
(72.1)%
2.8%
1.3%
(17.9)%
(5.6)%
1,212 inmates

January
January

17,517
24,932

15
37

(355)
(141)

4th Quarter 2013
(Second Estimate)
February
January
Nov.-Jan.
February

$15.9 trillion

2.4%

2.5%

78.1
99.5
$5.6 billion
235.2

(1.6)%
0.3%
(3.5)%
0.1%

14.9%
5.7%
17.3%
1.1%

* Excludes the temporary 1¢ increase that expired at the end of May 2013.

Change From
Prior Year
(0.5)%
(7.3)%
(9.2)%
2.2%
(0.7)%
4.3%
(1.8)%
13.6%*
11.5%*

36.6%
4.0%
6.6%
6.3%

7

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2014

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
Department of Economic Security – Report on the Transfer
of TANF to SSBG – Pursuant to a FY 2014 General
Appropriation Act footnote, the Department of Economic
Security (DES) has submitted a FY 2014 expenditure plan
for the transfer of $20.0 million from the Temporary
Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) Block Grant to the
Social Services Block Grant (SSBG) in the following line
items:




The transfer to SSBG provides additional funding
flexibility to DES. The federal government caps the
amount of TANF Block Grant monies that can be
transferred to the SSBG at 10% of the base TANF Block
Grant to the state. The $20.0 million request is 10% of
the base. Once deposited in SSBG, the monies are
spent on the Children Services program in the line items
listed above. Should any changes be made to the
amounts allocated in the expenditure plan, DES will
notify JLBC. (Ben Beutler)

$4.8 million - Children Support Services
$10.8 million - CPS Emergency and Residential
Placement
$4.4 million - Foster Care Placement

February Spending
February 2014 General Fund spending of $510.6 million
was $147.5 million greater than February 2013. Year-todate, spending is $6.6 billion, or $67.0 million above last
year.



Department of Economic Security expenditures are
$62.5 million greater through February due to increased
funding levels for the agency in FY 2014.

(See Tables 6 & 7).


Year-to-date, the Department of Education has
spent $147.1 million more than the prior year due to
increased enrollment, as well increased per-pupil
costs as the result of school district charter
conversions.
Table 6
General Fund Spending ($ in Millions)
Change From

YTD Change

Feb 14

Feb 13

Year-to-Date

from FY 13

AHCCCS

113.3

4.0

901.4

(5.2)

Corrections

73.9

2.7

624.7

23.3

Economic Security

8.6

7.4

588.5

62.5

Education

225.2

132.2

2,736.9

147.1

Health Serv ices

13.9

0.9

484.9

(38.6)

Public Safety

2.1

0.6

22.0

1.8

School Facilities Board

0.1

(0.0)

188.3

15.9

Univ ersities

42.8

(0.2)

560.8

16.5

Agency

Leaseback Debt Serv ice

0.0

0.0

84.1

0.0

Other

30.7

(0.1)

398.9

43.7

Total

510.6

147.5

6,590.5

267.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(200.0)

510.6

147.5

6,590.5

67.0

Budget Stabilization
Fund Deposit
Grand Total

8

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2014

Table 7

General Fund Spending
($ in Thousands)
Agency
Dept. of Admin./Automation Projects Fund
ADOA – Sale/Leaseback Debt Service
Office of Administrative Hearings
Department of Agriculture
AHCCCS
Attorney General
AZ Capital Post Conviction Public
Defender
State Board of Charter Schools
AZ Commerce Authority
Community Colleges
Corporation Commission
Department of Corrections
County Funding
AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind
Department of Economic Security
Department of Education
DEMA
DEQ – WQARF
Office of Equal Opportunity
State Board of Equalization
Board of Executive Clemency
Department of Financial Institutions
Department of Fire, Bldg and Life Safety
State Forester
Arizona Geological Survey
Governor/OSPB
Department of Health Services
Arizona Historical Society
Prescott Historical Society of AZ
Independent Redistricting Comm.
Commission of Indian Affairs
Department of Insurance
Judiciary
Supreme/Superior Court
Court of Appeals
Department of Juvenile Corrections

Feb 14
3,708.2
63.1
90.4
113,341.7
1,481.8
-

Change from
Feb 13
(1,018.4)
11.1
(394.0)
4,016.3
(57.0)
(0.3)

Year-to-Date
29,132.7
84,119.8
581.5
5,166.7
901,407.0
13,684.6
-

YTD Change
from FY 13
8,782.9
(2.4)
144.3
(5,150.6)
(719.3)
(4.4)

53.7

3.2

573.0

65.0

2,625.0
1,817.0
36.2
73,919.4
1,903.7
8,625.5
225,163.6
373.4
12.8
22.4
53.2
220.6
138.8
389.8
55.2
717.8
13,934.0
212.5
49.5
94.8
2.8
341.6

1,605.8
(8.8)
2,699.2
(237.3)
7,370.2
132,231.7
34.6
12.8
5.0
(7.0)
6.7
(9.4)
187.1
9.4
(337.9)
906.8
4.9
(15.2)
63.3
(0.5)
6.0

21,000.0
50,878.0
316.7
624,720.3
7,150.5
15,393.9
588,472.0
2,736,855.8
4,424.5
7,000.0
138.6
389.8
533.4
1,921.3
1,318.5
2,239.8
461.2
6,548.6
484,938.0
2,196.5
459.8
955.0
36.4
3,523.8

(435.1)
(60.9)
23,269.5
7,150.5
(147.0)
62,537.9
147,102.2
(974.9)
83.0
13.0
7.5
104.0
87.3
(1,741.4)
(172.6)
766.7
(38,649.1)
4.7
3.3
(136.6)
2.8
285.3

2,085.1
1,051.4
3,043.1

(395.0)
31.3
42.0

58,603.9
9,171.3
25,704.0

1,112.3
261.0
(1,601.5)

9

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2014

Table 7 (Continued)

Agency
State Land Department
Law Enforcement Merit System
Legislature
Auditor General
House of Representatives
Joint Legislative Budget Comm.
Legislative Council
Senate
Mine Inspector
Nav. Streams & Adjudication
Occupational Safety and Health Review
Phoenix Convention Center
Pioneers’ Home
Comm. for Postsecondary Ed.
Department of Public Safety
Public Safety Personnel Retirement System
Arizona Department of Racing
Radiation Regulatory Agency
Real Estate Department
Department of Revenue
School Facilities Board
Secretary of State
Tax Appeals Board
Office of Tourism
Department of Transportation
Commission on Uniform State Laws
Universities
Board of Regents
Arizona State University
Northern Arizona University
University of Arizona
Department of Veteran Services
Department of Water Resources
Department of Weights & Measures
Other - JP Salaries Distribution
Other
Total
Budget Stabilization Fund Deposit
Grand Total

Feb 14
661.0
-

Change from
Feb 13
589.2
(5.0)

Year-to-Date
7,473.1
-

YTD Change
from FY 13
6,769.3
(43.6)

1,447.8
1,109.0
157.6
393.6
690.4
89.3
17.9
0.6
610.4
2,146.0
1.0
50.7
160.5
1,669.9
97.8
704.0
19.1
815.8
1.1
1.0

24.1
8.0
(38.3)
36.7
(12.3)
40.1
9.0
(39.0)
0.1
617.1
1.0
0.3
11.7
(834.1)
(6.3)
0.7
1.7
561.7
0.6
1.0

12,446.7
8,065.9
1,345.2
4,630.1
5,375.8
790.1
86.8
2.3
20,449.0
1,180.0
1,396.8
22,008.2
5,000.0
1,875.9
1,027.4
1,682.1
32,420.0
188,288.4
8,039.5
181.4
4,267.7
3.7
56.7

1,119.4
633.4
92.7
(419.3)
302.6
59.4
6.6
2.3
14,854.0
522.6
0.1
1,785.7
5,000.0
1.8
6.7
159.9
5,223.7
15,850.5
(4,783.2)
5.6
973.8
(15.7)
56.7

20.8
19,640.4
6,562.5
16,596.4
353.0
799.1
83.6
50.7
7.0
510,586.4
510,586.4

(3,808.1)
2,259.2
638.3
725.6
12.6
33.1
(10.7)
(111.4)
7.0
147,480.0
147,480.0

18,420.4
247,698.8
82,994.9
211,700.8
3,362.5
6,824.9
778.2
576.8
7.5
6,590,474.1
6,590,474.1

(12,524.6)
18,073.7
5,106.5
5,805.0
(243.4)
797.3
(119.7)
(79.8)
7.5
266,975.4
(200,000.0)
66,975.4

Total Non-Farm Employment

Tracking Arizona’s Recovery
March 2014
Appendix A

2,800

2,700

Thousands of Jobs

Slide:
2……Total Non-Farm Employment
3……Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
4……State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
5……State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting
Category
6……Single Family Building Permits
7……Maricopa County Pending Foreclosures
8……Coincident Index

2,600

2,500

2,400

2,300

2,200

JLBC

2002

2003 2004

2006

2007

2009

2010

2012

JUL

JAN

JAN

JULY

JUL

2011

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2008

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2005

JLBC

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2001

1

JAN

JAN

2,100

2013

2

Not seasonally adjusted

State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
$225

40,000
35,000

$200

$ in Millions

30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000

$150

$125

2011

2012 2013

Oct-13

* Jan-14

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr 12

Jan 12

Oct 11

July 11

Jan 11

Apr 11

Oct 10

July 10

Jan 10

Oct 09

Apr 10

Apr 09

July 09

Jan 09

Oct 08

Apr 08

July 08

Jan 08

Oct 07

July 07

Apr 07

JUL

JAN

JAN

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

2010

JAN

JUL

2008 2009

Not seasonally adjusted

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2007

JAN

JUL

2006

JAN

JUL

2005

JAN

JUL

2004

JAN

JUL

2003

JAN

JUL

2002

JAN

JUL

JAN

JAN

2001

Jan 07

$100

Oct 06

10,000
5,000

JLBC

$175

July 06

Total Monthly Claims for UI Benefits

45,000

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

3

JLBC

* January 2014 collections reflect the reclassification of approximately $40
million of revenue from other tax categories to retail collections

4

State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting Category

Single Family Building Permits
100,000

$100

Single Family Building Permits

90,000

$50

$25

70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000

2001
Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

JLBC

5

2003

JLBC

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011 2012

JUL

JAN

JAN

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2005

JAN

JUL

2004

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2002

2013

6

12-Month Moving Sum

Maricopa County Pending Foreclosures

Economic Activity Index
210

50,000

200

Coincident Index Value

60,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

190
180
170
160
150

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

An initial notice of trustee sale has been recorded but final sale has not yet occurred

2012

2001

7

JLBC

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2012

Source: Coincident Index – Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Combines four state-level indicators
(employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary
disbursements) to summarize current economic conditions.

JUL

JAN

JULY

JUL

2011

JAN

JUL

2010

JAN

JUL

2009

JAN

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JUL

JAN

2013

JAN

140

JAN

JUL

JAN

JULY

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JUL

JAN

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JUL

JAN

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JUL

2002

JAN

JAN

0

JLBC

JAN

JUL

0
JAN

Jul-13

Jan-14

Oct-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jan 12

Oct 11

Apr 12

July 11

Jan 11

Oct 10

Apr 11

July 10

Jan 10

Oct 09

Apr 10

July 09

Jan 09

Oct 08

Apr 09

July 08

Jan 08

Oct 07

Apr 08

July 07

Jan 07

Oct 06

Apr 07

10,000
July 06

$0

80,000

JAN

$ in Millions

$75

2013

8