JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights

January 2014

Summary
1716 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Phone:
(602) 926-5491
Fax:
(602) 926-5416

December General Fund revenue collections
totaled $777.2 million. Base revenues, which
exclude one-time adjustments, were (3.1)%
below December 2012 and $(43.7) million
below forecast. The year-over-year change
excludes the temporary 1-cent sales tax which
expired at the end of May 2013.
The December forecast loss occurred mainly
in 2 categories. Individual Income Tax receipts
fell by (6.3)% in the month and were $(10.1)
million below forecast, almost entirely due to
lower than expected withholding collections.

www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

“Year-to-date,
General Fund
revenues are
3.2% above the
prior year and
are $10.4 million
above forecast.”

In addition, Corporate Income Tax revenues
continued the poor performance seen so far
this year – with December collections declining
by (10.8)% and coming in at $(27.3) million
below forecast. This marks the third month of
significant double-digit declines in the
Corporate Income Tax so far in FY 2014.

$2.2 billion as of mid-January 2014. In addition,
the state’s Budget Stabilization Fund has a
balance of $453.3 million.
JLBC Baseline Summary
In mid-January the JLBC released its FY 2015
Baseline budget. The Baseline reflects a
consensus economic forecast and statutory
funding formula requirements. In summary:






Year-to-date, General Fund revenues are 3.2%
above the prior year and are $10.4 million
above forecast.
In comparison to revenue of $777.2 million,
December 2013 spending was $532.9 million
which is a decrease of $(28.9) million from the
prior year.
Fiscal year-to-date, General Fund revenues of
$4.26 billion have been offset by $5.47 billion of
expenditures.
The state’s fiscal health can also be measured
by the operating fund balance. The state pays
its bills out of the operating fund balance,
which consists of the General Fund and certain
dedicated funds. The operating balance is at







Given forecasted FY 2015 General Fund
revenues of $9.36 billion and spending of
$9.04 billion, the budget has a projected
FY 2015 balance of $327 million.
Under the 3-year budget projections, there
would be an ending shortfall of $(17) million
in FY 2016 and $(383) million in FY 2017, prior
to any debt buyback or Highway User
Revenue Fund (HURF) shift proposal.
Under the current terms of the state’s 2010
$1.5 billion debt financing, the state must
begin to buy back that debt if its reserves
reach a certain level. Based on FY 2015
balances, the required FY 2017 buyback is
estimated at $210 million.
The 2-year legislative proposal to eliminate
the use of HURF for Department of Public
Safety (DPS) Highway Patrol expenses in FY
2015 and FY 2016 would have a General
Fund cost of $238 million.
After adjustments for the debt buy back
and HURF proposal, the FY 2016 projected
shortfalls are $(256) million in FY 2016 and
$(593) million in FY 2017.
The ending balance projections exclude
the state’s Budget Stabilization Fund
reserve.

Table of Contents

This report has been
prepared for the Arizona
Legislature by the Joint
Legislative Budget
Committee Staff on
January 21, 2014.

Summary
 JLBC Baseline Summary ..................................... 1
December Revenues ............................................. 2
Economic Indicators .............................................. 4
Summary of Recent Agency Reports
 AHCCC/DHS – Reconciliation Payments ........ 7
 AHCCCS – Safety Net Care Pool Program ..... 7
 ACJC – State Aid to County Attorneys ........... 7
 DES – Domestic Violence Funding .................. 8
 DES – TANF Grant Diversion Program ............... 8
 DES – Foster Care Medicaid Report ................. 8
 DES – Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund .... 8

 DES – Unemployment Tax Notes ...................... 8
 ADE – K-12 Aggregate Expenditure Limit ....... 8
 CPE – Teacher Loan Forgiveness Program .... 8
 CPE – Postsecondary Education Grants ........ 9
 PSPRS – Funding Status ...................................... 9
 ABOR/ACC – Report on Articulation............... 9
 ABOR – Financial Aid Report .......................... 10
 SFB – Report on Funding Estimates ................ 10
 Supreme Court – State Aid Report ................ 10
 Public Programs Eligibility Report ................... 10

December Spending ........................................... 11
Tracking Arizona’s Recovery............. Appendix A

2

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2014

December Revenues
Table 1

General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions)

December
Year-to-Date

FY 2014
Collections
$ 777.2
$ 4,259.6

Sales Tax collections of $327.1 million were 6.0% above
December 2012 and $2.8 million above the forecast for
the month. The year-over-year change amounts exclude
the temporary 1-cent sales tax which expired at the end of
May 2013.
For the first half of the fiscal year, sales tax collections are
6.7% above the prior year and are $18.8 million above
forecast.
Specific sales tax category information was not available
from the Department of Revenue as of the publication
date of this document.
Individual Income Tax net revenues were $384.2 million in
December, which was (6.3)% below the prior year.
Collections were $(10.1) million below the forecast for the
month. Year-to-date, revenue has grown 3.4% over the
prior year, and is $25.2 million above the budget forecast.
As indicated in Table 2, withholding decreased by (6.6)%
for the month. The December decrease brings
withholding tax collections for the fiscal year down to a
1.7% over the prior year. This amount is $(46.6) million
below the budget forecast.
December estimated and final payments were (3.8)%
below last year, and were $(1.8) million below the
forecast for the month. Year-to-date, payments are
$17.0 million above the forecast.
December refunds were 31.3% above last year, but were
still $1.3 million below forecast. Year-to-date, refunds are
$54.9 million below forecast.
Table 2
Individual Income Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

Withholding
Estimated +
Final Payments
Refunds

December
(6.6)%
(3.8)%
31.3%

YTD
1.7%
15.5%
6.6%

Difference From
Budget Forecast
$ (43.6)
$ 10.4

Difference
From FY 2013
$ (110.5)
$ (238.4)

Corporate Income Tax net collections were $84.7 million in
December, which is $(10.3) million less than December of
the prior year. Collections were $(27.3) million below the
budget forecast.
Year-to-date, collections are down (14.8)% compared to
the prior year, and are $(48.8) million below the budget
forecast.
The Lottery Commission reports that December ticket sales
were $71.3 million, which is $18.4 million, or 34.7%, above
sales in the prior year. Year-to-date ticket sales are $349.6
million, which is 7.8% above last year’s sales.
Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) revenues consist of
gasoline and use fuel (diesel) tax, motor carrier fees
(commercial carriers), vehicle license tax and registration
fees, and various other fees. HURF collections of $102.1
million in December were up $286,200, or 0.3%, compared
to December of last year. Year-to-date revenues are 2.5%
above collections in the prior year, and are $9.0 million
above the budget forecast.

3
Table 3

General Fund Revenue:
Change from Previous Year and FY 2014 Enacted Budget Forecast
December 2013
FY 2014 YTD (Six Months)

Current Month
Change From
Actual

December 2012

December 2013

Amount

Change from
Actual

Enacted Forecast

Percent

Amount

Percent

December 2012

December 2013

Amount

Enacted Forecast
Percent

Amount

Percent

Taxes
Sales and Use
Income - Individual
- Corporate

$327,109,813

$18,485,098

$1,985,422,957

$124,319,793

384,210,008

(25,971,560)

(6.3)

(10,064,534)

(2.6)

1,919,644,214

62,514,738

3.4

25,246,011

1.3

84,742,313

(10,260,596)

(10.8)

6.7 %

$18,846,916

1.0 %

(43,668,197)

(14.8)

(48,782,023)

(16.2)

2,133,147

28.0

1,343,429

16.0

(24.4)

251,641,552

(243,125)

(8.1)

9,743,429

(2,237,447)

(64.5)

(846,208)

(40.7)

12,908,722

(194,105)

(1.5)

508,722

4.1

1,954,605

(1,773,479)

(47.6)

(1,185,395)

(37.8)

15,412,993

(439,690)

(2.8)

(487,007)

(3.1)

12,180,601

(3,803,760)

(23.8)

(4,459,199)

(26.8)

131,279,386

(206,128)

(0.2)

(10,243,714)

(7.2)

--

0

(71.6)

240,332

Luxury - Tobacco

1,233,792

Estate

0.9 %

(27,276,857)

2,756,875

Insurance Premium

$2,838,561

6.7

Property
- Liquor

6.0 %

0

173,984

0

-(30.7)

0

Sub-Total Taxes

$814,209,309

($25,397,190)

Lottery

1,283,454

(4,341,086)

(77.2)

(4,716,546)

(78.6)

15,286,868

(1,761,332)

(10.3)

(3,213,132)

(17.4)

License, Fees and Permits

2,246,478

(452,357)

(16.8)

(353,522)

(13.6)

14,718,342

(637,721)

(4.2)

(281,658)

(1.9)

--

11,841

(804)

(6.4)

11,841

$4,326,293,585

$144,459,443

3.5 %

(209,668)

--

(9,430)

(4.8) %

(0.0)

0

21,302

($41,290,455)

(115)

--

Other Taxes

(3.0) %

(53,698)

0

($13,777,334)

(46.6)
(0.3) %

Other Revenue

Interest

1,535

67

4.6

1,535

--

Sales and Services

1,075,204

(253,038)

(19.1)

(424,796)

(28.3)

7,817,557

(353,935)

(4.3)

(1,682,443)

(17.7)

Other Miscellaneous

1,586,911

(804,813)

5.8

5,763,816

(8,297,342)

(59.0)

(4,436,184)

(43.5)

Disproportionate Share
Transfers and Reimbursements
Sub-Total Other Revenue
TOTAL BASE REVENUE

(33.6)

86,911

0

0

--

0

1,499,101

2,748,949

--

999,101

$7,692,683

($3,102,278)

(28.7) %

($4,407,317)

$821,901,992

($28,499,468)

(3.4) %

($45,697,772)

--

0

0

15,148,753

2,194,629

(36.4) %

$58,747,177

($8,856,505)

(5.3) %

$4,385,040,762

199.8

$135,602,938

-16.9

0
2,648,753

-21.2

(13.1) %

($6,952,823)

(10.6) %

3.2 %

($20,730,157)

(0.5) %

Other Adjustments
Urban Revenue Sharing

(46,709,330)

One-Time Transfers

0

Sales Tax - 1¢ Increase

0

Sub-Total Other Adjustments
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE

(46,709,330)
$775,192,662

(3,910,660)
0
(78,080,670)

9.1

40,770

(0.1)

(280,745,213)

(23,953,193)

--

0

--

150,691,561

114,691,561

318.6

26,691,561

(100.0)

0

--

2,611,367

(464,736,300)

(99.4)

2,611,367

(81,991,330)

-- %

40,770

(0.1) %

(127,442,285)

($110,490,798)

(12.5) %

($45,657,002)

(5.6) %

$4,257,598,477

0.3 %

($731,561)

(0.7) %

$606,696,214

9.3

(244,613)

0.1
21.5
--

(373,997,932)

-- %

29,058,315

(18.6) %

($238,394,994)

(5.3) %

$8,328,158

0.2 %

2.5 %

$8,982,991

1.5 %

Non-General Funds
Highway User Revenue Fund

$102,061,776

$286,195

$14,900,943

4

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2014

Recent Economic Indicators
NATIONAL

“(GDP)
increased at an
annual rate of
4.1% in the third
quarter of
2013…the largest
rate of growth
since the fourth
quarter of 2011.”

According to the U.S. Department of
Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, the
U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
increased at an annual rate of 4.1% in the third
quarter of 2013. This revised estimate represents
the largest rate of growth since the fourth
quarter of 2011. The acceleration was largely
due to increases in inventory investment,
personal consumption, and fixed investment.
Federal government spending was the only
major component of GDP that decreased
during the quarter.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer
Confidence Index increased 8.5% in December
and 17.1% since December 2012. The latest
reading reversed the negative trend
experienced during the prior 3 months and
marks the largest monthly increase since June
2013. The increase was largely due to an
improved job market outlook, as the percent of
respondents that expect more job opportunities
in coming months increased from 13.1% to
17.1%.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Economic
Index grew by 0.8% in November, the largest
monthly percentage increase since April 2013.
This represents a continuation of the strong
index growth seen in recent months, with the
exception of a brief interruption in October.
During the month, improving conditions in
jobless claims, manufacturing orders, and
several measures of financial markets more
than offset negative contributions to the index
from worsening consumer confidence and
building permit creation.
Consumer prices, as measured by the U.S.
Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased 0.3% in
December and 1.5% above December 2012
prices. Energy prices drove the majority of the
monthly growth, increasing 2.1% over
November prices. Core inflation (all items
except food and energy) only increased 0.1%
during the month. Annual inflation measured
by the index in the future is expected to
strongly influence the pace the Federal Reserve
Bank reduces their monetary stimulus to the
economy.
ARIZONA
The U.S. Census Bureau released new state
population estimates last month. According to

this information, the population in Arizona as of
July 1, 2013 was 6,626,624, a net increase of
75,475, or 1.2%, from July 1, 2012. This was
somewhat lower than the 1.3% population
growth estimate in the previous year.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s
coincident index gauges current economic
activity in each state. The index combines 4
indicators: employment, average hours
worked in manufacturing, unemployment rate,
and inflation-adjusted wages.
In November, 46 out of 50 states had increases
in their coincident indexes. Arizona’s
coincident index increased by 0.3% compared
to the prior month. Year-over-year, the Arizona
index is 2.4% above last year, which is the 33rd
highest growth rate in the country. While this is
a significant improvement, Arizona’s index is still
(8.8)% below its peak, which occurred in
August 2007. See Appendix A – Tracking
Arizona’s Recovery for additional historical
information.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia also
publishes a leading index for each state that
forecasts economic conditions for the next 6
months. In addition to the coincident index,
Arizona’s leading index is based on Arizona
housing permits, Arizona initial unemployment
insurance claims, national manufacturing
delivery times, and the interest rate spread
between the 3-month and 10-year Treasury
instruments.
Using a 3-month average, Arizona’s leading
index projects that state GDP will grow at an
annualized rate of 2.6% over the next 6 months.
This is higher than the revised 2.5% growth
projection in October and lower than the 3.5%
projection in November 2012.
Housing
The number of Maricopa County pending
foreclosures decreased from 6,065 in
November to 5,974 in December. The
December total is significantly below the
peak in December 2009 (51,466). See
Appendix A – Tracking Arizona’s Recovery.
The total housing inventory in the Greater
Phoenix area increased from 21,095 in
December 2012 to 25,360 in December 2013,
a 20.2% increase.

5

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2014

Recent Economic Indicators (Continued)
In the Metropolitan Phoenix area, the median
price of a single family home was $200,000 in
November. This represents no change from
October, and a 23.1% increase from
November of last year.
Another measure of the health of the Arizona
real estate market is permitting activity. For
the 3-month period through November, a
total of 1,291 single-family building permits
had been issued statewide, a 2.2% increase
from last year. While permitting activity has
seen gains, the current level of permitting
remains far below a more normal 3-month
average of 3,000 to 4,000 permits. See
Appendix A – Tracking Arizona’s Recovery.
“As part of
Medicaid
expansion and
restoration that
began January
1, 2014, the
[childless adult]
program again
allowed new
participants.
Since the
December MFH,
the population
has increased by
29,064 to reach a
level of 96,834.”

In the 3-month period ending in November, a
total of 131 multi-family building permits were
issued in the state. This figure remains well
below the peak of activity in April 2007.
State Agency Data
At the beginning of January, total AHCCCS
caseloads remained at 1.26 million members.
Overall, AHCCCS caseloads are currently
(0.8)% below January 2013 levels. The
traditional acute care AHCCCS population,
which consists primarily of lower income
children and their parents, decreased by
(2.8)% since last month while decreasing
(3.3)% since last year. The total population in
this program is approximately 855,000.
From July 2011 through December 2013, the
childless adult program did not allow new
participants. As part of Medicaid expansion
and restoration that began January 1, 2014,
the program again allowed new participants.
Since the December MFH, the population has
increased by 29,064 to reach a level of
96,834. As a whole, the Proposition 204
program has increased 12.6% compared to
the prior month, and 2.5% from the prior year.
Medicaid expansion also resulted in the
creation of a new member population
consisting of adults from 100% to 133% of the
Federal Poverty Level (FPL). At the beginning
of January, 1,369 individuals had enrolled
under this new population. Federal
requirements that took effect January 1, 2014
may have also increased January caseloads
of children and of those previously eligible but
not enrolled. Caseload amounts for those
groups are unknown though, as they are not
reported separately from existing populations.

KidsCare I provides coverage for 5,583
children with incomes above those in the
traditional population. Its enrollment has
declined since a freeze was implemented in
January 2010. Enrollment declined (32.6)%
from the prior year.
Beginning on May 1, 2012, AHCCCS began a
new program, entitled KidsCare II. The state
match is provided by voluntary payments
from political subdivisions. As of the beginning
of January, 37,101 children were enrolled in
KidsCare II. KidsCare II expires on January 31,
2014. On January 1, 2014, children in both
KidsCare I and KidsCare II up to 133% of the
FPL began transferring to the traditional acute
care program.
There were 34,566 TANF recipients in the state
in November, a monthly caseload decrease
of (3.4)%. Year-over-year, the number of TANF
recipients has declined by (15.5)%. The
statutory lifetime limit on cash assistance is 24
months.
The appropriation for TANF cash assistance in
the FY 2014 budget funds an average
monthly caseload of approximately 34,346
recipients in FY 2014. The 34,566 TANF
recipients include 1,691 tribal recipients. These
recipients belong to tribes that operate their
own TANF program but contract with the
state for program administration, meaning
there were 32,875 state-funded TANF
recipients in November.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance
Program (SNAP), formerly known as Food
Stamps, provides assistance to low-income
households to purchase food. In November,
there were a total 1.1 million food stamp
recipients in the state, a (2.3)% decrease over
the prior month. Compared to the same
month last year, food stamp participation was
down by (3.9)%. The number of SNAP
recipients began increasing steadily in July
2007, after several years in the
550,000 to 575,000 range.
The 3-month average count of the
Department of Corrections (ADC) inmate
population increased to 41,009 inmates in
December 2013. Relative to the prior 3-month
period, the population has increased by 70
inmates. Compared to a year ago, the
population has increased by 924 inmates.

6

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2014

Recent Economic Indicators

(Continued)

Table 4

ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Indicator
Arizona
- Unemployment Rate (SA)
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Unemployment Insurance Recipients
- Non-Farm Employment - Total
Manufacturing
Construction
- Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing
- Contracting Tax Receipts (3-month average)
- Retail Sales Tax Receipts (3-month average)
- Residential Building Permits (3-month moving average)
Single-family
Multi-unit
- Greater Phoenix Home Sales
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Greater Phoenix Median Home Price
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Greater Phoenix S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
(Jan. 2000 = 100)
- Foreclosure Activity, Maricopa County
Pending Foreclosures (Active Notices)
- Greater Phoenix Total Housing Inventory, (ARMLS)
- Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers
- Revenue Per Available Hotel Room
- Arizona Average Natural Gas Price
($ per thousand cubic feet)
- Arizona Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Arizona Coincident Index (July 1992 = 100)
- Arizona Leading Index -- 6 month projected growth rate
- Arizona Personal Income
- Arizona Population
- AHCCCS Recipients
Acute Care Traditional
Prop 204 Childless Adults
Other Prop 204
Adult Expansion
Kids Care I
Kids Care II
Long-Term Care – Elderly & DD
Emergency Services
- TANF Recipients
- SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients
- ADC Inmate Growth (3-month average)
- Probation Caseload
Non-Maricopa
Maricopa County
United States
- Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2009 dollars, SAAR)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Leading Indicators Index (2004 = 100)
- U.S. Semiconductor Billings (3-month moving average)
- Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100)

Time Period

Current Value

Change From
Prior Period

Change From
Prior Year

November
December
December
November
November
November
November
Sep-Nov
Sep-Nov

7.8%
18,554
34,824
2.56 million
154,500
124,400
40.9
$42.3 million
$155.7 million

(0.4) %
4.5%
(1.0)%
1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
0.7%
(1.2)%
1.5%

(0.2)%
1.2%
(8.6)%
1.9%
(1.0)%
4.5%
1.2%
15.8%*
7.6%*

Sep-Nov
Sep-Nov

1,291
131

(10.9)%
(25.4)%

2.2%
(63.3)%

November
November

5,846
961

(17.0)%
(9.6)%

(27.0)%
(18.6)%

November
November
October

$200,000
$119,900
144.49

0.0%
0.0%
0.9%

23.1%
19.9%
18.1%

December

5,974

(1.5)%

(42.9)%

December
November
November
October

25,360
3.22 million
$55.81
$4.24

(5.5)%
(2.7)%
(8.6)%
(3.9)%

20.2%
(2.5)%
8.9%
(5.1)%

4th Quarter 2013
November
Sep-Nov
3rd Quarter 2013
July 1, 2013
January

November
November
Oct-Dec

66.9
184.00
2.6%
$246.5 billion
6.63 million
1,259,050
854,716
96,834
143,982
1,369
5,583
37,101
54,561
64,904
34,566
1,084,695
41,009

November
November

17,535
24,576

3rd Quarter 2013
(3rd Estimate)
December
November
Sept.-Nov.
December

$15.8 trillion

4.1%

1.9%

78.1
98.3
$6.0 billion
234.6

8.5%
0.8%
4.2%
0.3%

17.1%
5.2%
18.6%
1.5%

* Excludes the temporary 1¢ increase that expired at the end of May 2013.

(7.7)%
0.3%
0.2%
0.9%
N/A
0.1%
(2.8)%
42.9%
0.9%
N/A
(9.7)%
(8.6)%
0.1%
(2.6)%
(3.4)%
(2.3)%
70 inmates
149
(449)

(6.2)%
2.4%
(0.9)%
4.5%
1.2%
(0.8)%
(3.3)%
11.7%
(2.8)%
N/A
(32.6)%
43.6%
2.3%
3.0%
(15.5)%
(3.9)%
924 inmates
(376)
(719)

7

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2014

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
AHCCCS/Department of Health Services - Report on
Reconciliation Payments - Pursuant to the FY 2014 General
Appropriation Act (Laws 2013, 1st Special Session, Chapter
1), the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System
(AHCCCS) and the Department of Health Services (DHS)
submitted their reports on reconciliation payments and
penalties received during the first 6 months of FY 2014.
AHCCCS reports that during that 6-month period they
deposited $18.8 million into the General Fund and used
$47.6 million to offset Federal Medicaid Authority
expenditures from reconciliation payments and
penalties/sanctions. DHS reports that $22,800 from the
General Fund and $46,900 from Federal Medicaid
Authority in payments were returned from
penalties/sanctions.
AHCCCS and DHS limit financial risks and profits for health
plans and Regional Behavioral Health Authorities (RBHAs)
for most Medicaid populations (the maximum percentage
of loss and profit varies by Medicaid population).
Reconciliation payments are made to health plans/RBHAs
if losses exceed the set level or to the agency if profits
exceed the set level. A penalty, or sanction, may be
assessed against health plans/RBHAs for the failure to
demonstrate compliance with their contractual
responsibilities.

42,289 children covered through the KidsCare II program
and 3,735 additional persons covered through the
childless adult program. More detail on FY 2014 year-todate payments and coverage is provided in the table
below.
While 4 other cities requested to expand the SNCP
program using state match monies from a hospital
assessment, they did not receive approval from the
federal government. (Amy Upston)
Table 5

FY 2014 SNCP and Coverage Expansion
(YTD through November; $ in Millions)
State
Match

Federal
Match

Original SNCP Agreement
$49.4
$106.8
City of Phoenix SNCP
Agreement
43.7
83.6
Sub-total SNCP Payments to
Hospitals
93.1
190.4
KidsCare II and Childless
9.9
32.4
Adult Coverage Expansion
Grand Total 1/
$103.0 $222.8
____________
1/ Numbers do not add due to rounding.

Total
Funds
$156.2
127.3
283.5
42.3
$325.9

Previously, the agencies retained monies from
reconciliation payments and penalties. The FY 2013
Health and Welfare Budget Reconciliation Bill (Laws 2012,
Chapter 299, Section 1) required, as permanent law, that
AHCCCS and DHS deposit monies received for
reconciliation payments and penalties received into the
General Fund or the fund from which the appropriation
was originally made. (Amy Upston)

Arizona Criminal Justice Commission – Report on State Aid
to County Attorneys Fund and the State Aid to Indigent
Defense Fund – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 41-2409E, the Arizona
Criminal Justice Commission (ACJC) is required to report
on expenditures for the prior fiscal year from the State Aid
to County Attorneys Fund and State Aid to Indigent
Defense Fund by January 8 of each year.

AHCCCS – Report on Safety Net Care Pool Program –
Pursuant to an FY 2014 General Appropriation Act
footnote, the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment
System (AHCCCS) reported on the monies received from
local government hospital assessments for the Safety Net
Care Pool (SNCP) program through November 30, 2013.
The SNCP program funds unreimbursed costs incurred by
hospitals in caring for uninsured and AHCCCS recipients.
Local governments or public universities provide the state
match, and the voluntary contributions receive an
approximate 2:1 match from the federal government. As
a federal condition of participating in the program, some
of the monies must be used for coverage expansion of the
KidsCare and the childless adult population.

ACJC reports that county attorneys reported expenditures
of $1.2 million in FY 2013. Of that total, $1.1 million was
spent on salary and benefits, $37,100 on other
expenditures, $19,200 on equipment, $8,200 for
contractual services, $3,000 on case management
software, and $200 on travel.

In April 2012, AHCCCS received federal approval to
establish the SNCP program. The program was expanded
a year later using monies collected from a City of Phoenix
hospital assessment. The agency reports these payments
resulted in an additional $283.5 million in total fund
distributions to hospitals and $42.3 million in total funds
expended for coverage expansion, through November
30, 2013. In November 2013, this resulted in an additional

In FY 2013, the State Aid to County Attorneys Fund
received revenues totaling $973,600 and had an ending
balance of $1.9 million. The State Aid to Indigent Defense
Fund did not receive revenues in FY 2013.

ACJC reports that counties used the monies in 3 main
areas: additional staffing, technological purchases, and
training and travel expenses. Training and travel expenses
funded witness travel and staff attendance at
educational seminars and conferences.
ACJC also states that no prosecuting agencies reported
case processing times that met the Supreme Court
guidelines. (Krista MacGahan)

8

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2014

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
Department of Economic Security - Report on Available
State and Federal Domestic Violence Funding - Pursuant
to a General Appropriation Act Footnote, the
Department of Economic Security (DES) submitted its
annual report on state and federal domestic violence
funds. A total of $23.5 million was used by 6 state entities
for domestic violence services in FY 2013, a (0.6)%
decline in spending from FY 2012, reflecting reduced
federal funding. (Ben Beutler)
Department of Economic Security - Report on Temporary
Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) Grant Diversion
Program - Pursuant to A.R.S. § 46-298, the Department of
Economic Security (DES) has provided the 2013 annual
report on the TANF Grant Diversion Program. The
program’s purpose is to divert applicants from long-term
TANF cash assistance by offering immediate, one-time
assistance to resolve a financial crisis. In FY 2013, 8,991
applicant households chose the grant diversion option
and were diverted from long-term assistance. A total of
5,342 households obtained employment within 90 days of
receiving assistance under the diversion program during
the 12-month period of April 2012 through March 2013.
Through December 2012, the most recent month for
which complete data is available, 506 of 4,367
households, or 12%, reapplied for long-term assistance
within 180 days of their participation in the diversion
program. Complete data for FY 2012 indicates 2,384 of
the total 16,599 households receiving diversion payments,
or 14%, reapplied within 180 days. In December 2011, the
department implemented a policy that restricted
qualified applicants of the grant diversion option to one
diversion payment in a single year. (Ben Beutler)
Department of Economic Security - Foster Care Medicaid
Report - Pursuant to Laws 2013, Chapter 220, Section 7B,
the Department of Economic Security (DES) has provided
its quarterly report on foster care and Medicaid eligibility.
There were 13,940 children eligible for Medicaid in foster
care in November, or 97% of all children in foster care.
The number of new Medicaid-eligible children for
November was 964, while 12,980 children continued to be
eligible for Medicaid from the previous month. The
number of Medicaid-eligible children who had their cases
closed in November was 960. The amount of nonMedicaid expenditures by service type used by DES to
supplement the behavioral health services was not
provided. (Ben Beutler)
Department of Economic Security - Report on the Status
of the Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund - Pursuant to
A.R.S. § 23-665.13B, the Department of Economic Security
(DES) has provided a quarterly status report on the
Unemployment Insurance (UI) Trust Fund, including UI
revenue, fund outlays, the ending balance, interest
charges on the UI tax anticipation notes, and any
outstanding federal debt. During the 3rd quarter of
calendar year 2013, DES estimates that the UI Trust Fund
had a beginning balance of $(111.4) million, revenues of

$273.6 million including $201.2 million of bond proceeds,
and fund outlays of $101.5 million, resulting in a $60.7
million ending balance. (Ben Beutler)
Department of Economic Security - Report on
Unemployment Insurance Tax Anticipation Notes Pursuant to A.R.S. § 23-665.13A, the Department of
Economic Security (DES) has provided the finalized debt
issuance information for its unemployment insurance (UI)
tax anticipation notes, including the principal amount,
interest rate, the debt service schedule, the length of
term, the interest to be paid over the life of the loan, and
the status of the bonds as taxable or non-taxable. The
finalized UI debt issuance amounts are the following:






Principal amount - $200 million
Interest rate - 1.5%
Debt service schedule/length of term - $200 million
principle payment on bonds is due in 2 separate May
2014 payments
Interest at full maturity - $1.9 million
Bond status - non-taxable

During the recession, Arizona was 1 of 33 states to borrow
from the U.S. Department of Labor to fund
unemployment benefits. After borrowing the Federal
Funds, the state established a UI special assessment on
employers for calendar year (CY) 2011 and CY 2012 only.
Despite the additional revenue from the special
assessment, the state was unable to repay all outstanding
federal loans by November 10, 2012, resulting in a 0.3%
FUTA tax increase for CY 2012, or an additional UI tax
against employers of $21 per employee. The $200 million
in revenue from the recently issued UI tax anticipation
notes was used to repay the state’s federal loan in
September 2013. By paying off the federal loan, the state
will avoid (a) the continuation of the 0.3% FUTA rate
increase from CY 2012 and (b) an additional 0.3% FUTA
rate increase in CY 2014, resulting in a combined (0.6)%
FUTA rate savings of $42 per employee in CY 2014. (Ben
Beutler)
Arizona Department of Education – Report on K-12
Aggregate Expenditure Limit – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15911B, the State Board of Education reported on October
31, 2013 that currently budgeted expenditures for all
school districts collectively statewide for FY 2014 are
$(593.9) million below the Constitution’s aggregate
expenditure limitation (AEL). For FY 2013 the difference
was $(678.5) million. The AEL limits growth in statewide K12 expenditures to the combined rate of growth for
enrollment and inflation, with certain exceptions. (Steve
Schimpp)
Commission for Postsecondary Education – Report on
Math, Science, and Special Education Teacher Loan
Forgiveness Program – A.R.S. § 15-1782 requires the
Commission for Postsecondary Education to report
annually on its Math, Science, and Special Education
Teacher Loan Forgiveness (MSSE) program.

9

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2014

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
The MSSE program provides forgivable loans to eligible
students attending any regionally or nationally
accredited institution in Arizona (public or private) that
agree to a service commitment to teach in an Arizona
public K-12 school. The program was created in 2007.
In FY 2013 the MSSE program had 63 applicants and
disbursed 46 loans. This total includes 34 new loans and
12 renewals. The total disbursement was $277,045. Of
the 46 recipients, 17 are studying mathematics, 4 are
studying science, 20 are studying special education, and
5 are studying elementary education. Eleven recipients
attend private postsecondary institutions and 35 attend
public universities.
FY 2013 was the first year that the commission has
collected retention data. At the conclusion of FY 2013,
229 students have participated in the MSSE program. Of
those, 35 are still enrolled in a postsecondary institution,
14 are in the 12-month grace period, 55 are teaching in a
public K-12 school in Arizona, 65 had their loan forgiven
for completing their teaching service, 16 are in
repayment, 3 have paid their loan balance in full, and 41
may potentially be placed in repayment. (Tom Ritland)

contribution rates, funded status and rate of return for FY
2015, based on valuation data from June 30, 2013.
In PSPRS and CORP, there is significant variation in the
actuarial status of individual employer groups, therefore
the employer contribution rates and funded statuses
have been shown in the aggregate. Individual
employer contribution rates and funded ratios are
available on the PSPRS website.
A 7-year smoothing period is used to calculate the
investment rate of return. This smoothing technique is a
tool used to reduce short-term volatility of assets by
deferring a portion of gains and losses over time. This
smoothing process is used under the condition that the
maximum deferred gain or loss remains within 20% of
market value. Table 1 shows 1-year market-based
returns, in addition to the 7-year smoothing technique.
(Ben Henderson)
Table 6

Commission for Postsecondary Education – Report on
Postsecondary Education Grant Program – A.R.S. § 151855 requires the Commission for Postsecondary
Education (ACPE) to report annually on its Postsecondary
Education Grant (PEG) program.

Public Safety Personnel Retirement System (PSPRS) –
Report on Shared Cost Structure, Funding Status and Rate
of Return - Pursuant to A.R.S. § 38-848.02, PSPRS is required
to report annually on the shared cost structure of the
employees and employers, the funding status and the
rate of return for the system. Besides administering its
own system, PSPRS is also responsible for the Correctional
Officers Retirement Plan (CORP) as well as the Elected
Officials’ Retirement Plan (EORP). Table 6 shows the

FY 15 Contribution Rates 1/
Employer 2/
Employee

PSPRS

CORP

EORP

32.54%
11.05%4/

14.46%
8.41% 5/

23.50% 3/
13.00%

Funded Status 1/ 2/

57.1%

66.9%

55.5%

Rate of Return
1-year market value basis
10.9%
11.0%
10.8%
7-year smoothing basis
3.4%
3.8%
2.9%
____________
1/ Based on June 30, 2013 valuation.
2/ Employer contribution rates and funded statuses for
PSPRS and CORP are shown in the aggregate, as there
is significant variation in the actuarial status between
individual employer groups.
3/ Pursuant to A.R.S. § 38-810, a fixed employer
contribution rate of 23.5% begins January 1, 2014.
4/ As stipulated in A.R.S. § 38-843E
5/ Pursuant to A.R.S. § 38-891H and I, the employee rate is
7.96% for full-time dispatchers and 8.41% for all others.

The PEG program provides grants to students attending
private postsecondary institutions. The program was
launched in March 2007 and received funding through
FY 2010. In FY 2010, a total of $2.2 million was disbursed to
1,400 grantees representing 20 private postsecondary
schools. Funding was eliminated after FY 2010 and the
program continues to be suspended.
Since its inception, 4,084 students received a PEG loan.
Of those recipients, 2,300 have already graduated with a
baccalaureate degree and 640 are currently enrolled
and working on completing their degree. The remaining
1,144 promissory note holders are reported as not
enrolled or attending the last institution on file at the time
of their last grant award. ACPE is currently searching to
locate these students for inquiry regarding their
enrollment or graduation status. Those who fail to meet
the requirements of the forgivable loan must enter into
the PEG repayment program. (Tom Ritland)

PSPRS Annual Report

Arizona Board of Regents/Arizona Community Colleges
– Report on Articulation – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-1824,
the Arizona Board of Regents (ABOR) and the
community colleges are required to submit an annual
report by December 15 of their progress on both
articulation and meeting statewide postsecondary
education needs.
This year’s progress in implementing the transfer model
and support systems include:




During the 2012-2013 academic year, 10,315
community college students transferred to the
public university system. This is an increase of 25%
from the 2006-2007 academic year.
59% of new transfer students had 60 or more credit
hours transferred to a university in 2012-2013 versus
43% in 2006-2007.

10

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2014

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)



53% of transfer students completed an associate’s
degree prior to transfer in 2011-2012 versus 41% in
2006-2007.
Ethnic minorities accounted for 38% of new
community college transfers in 2012-2013. (Tom
Ritland)

Arizona Board of Regents – Report on University System’s
Financial Aid – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-1650, the Arizona
Board of Regents is required to submit an annual report
on financial aid. Highlights from the FY 2013 report
include:


Approximately $1.9 billion in total financial aid was
provided to students.

Of this amount, $913.5 million (47.5%) came from
federal sources, $632.7 million (32.9%) came from
tuition and other sources, $365.1 million (19.0%)
came from private sources, and $10.9 million (0.6%)
came from state scholarships, grants and loans.

A total of 123,901 students received aid, including
100,057 undergraduate students and 23,844
graduate students.

Of the undergraduate students receiving aid, 22,771
received non-need-based gift aid, 57,617 received
need-based gift aid, and 49,612 were awarded
miscellaneous types of non-gift aid (i.e. work study).
Some students received multiple types of aid.

The average aid package was $11,216, which
includes both need and non-need-based aid.

41.4% of undergraduate students and 41.1% of
graduate students have debt.

Upon graduation, the average undergraduate
student debt was $22,758, while the average
graduate student debt was $49,850.
(Art Smith)
School Facilities Board – Report on Funding Estimates –
Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-2002, the School Facilities Board
(SFB) is required to report by December 1 on the
estimated amounts necessary in FY 2015 and FY 2016 for
the Emergency Deficiencies Correction and New School
Facilities Programs.
In both FY 2015 and FY 2016, SFB estimates no funds will
be available for the Emergency Deficiencies Correction
Program.
In FY 2015, SFB estimates a total funding requirement of
$1.4 million for New School Construction. This amount
would fund 9,720 square feet of additional space in the
Thatcher District. The project’s total cost is $1.5 million,
however, an estimated $100,000 will be spent in FY 2014.
SFB estimates that 2 districts would qualify for new school
construction in FY 2016, for a total cost of $14.2 million.
Funding for these projects would then be appropriated
in FY 2017 and FY 2018. The first project would cost $12.8
million and would fund additional K-8 space in the
Laveen Elementary District. The second project would
cost $1.0 million and would fund a new K-6 school for
the Pima Unified School District. SFB estimates that site

conditions for both projects would be a total of $400,000.
SFB estimates that the Lease-to-Own Debt Service will be
$170.2 million and $173.7 million in FY 2015 and FY 2016,
respectively. These amounts incorporate $(5.2) million in
savings achieved through a refinancing agreement that
was favorably reviewed by the Joint Committee on Capital
Review (JCCR) in October 2013.
SFB did not request to transfer any monies from the New
School Facilities Fund to the Emergency Deficiencies
Correction Fund in FY 2015 or FY 2016, due to the lack of
excess monies in the New School Facilities Fund. (Ben
Henderson)
Supreme Court – Report on Criminal Case Proceedings,
Enforcement of Court Orders, and State Aid to Courts Fund
Expenditures – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 12-102.01D, the Supreme
Court is required to report annually to the JLBC on the
progress of criminal case processing projects and the
enforcement of court orders including the collection of
court ordered fees, fines, penalties, sanctions and
forfeitures. Additionally, pursuant to A.R.S. § 12-102.02D, the
Supreme Court is required to report annually to the JLBC on
the expenditure of monies from the State Aid to the Courts
Fund for the prior fiscal year and the progress made in
improving criminal case processing.
During FY 2013, the Supreme Court contracted with several
outside vendors to increase compliance with court orders,
resulting in total collections of $43.4 million from
backlogged cases. Additionally, the Supreme Court utilizes
a debt setoff program to match outstanding criminal fines
or fees to outstanding tax and governmental liabilities. Tax
and lottery interceptions in the debt setoff program
declined by (15.6)% year-over-year with collections of $15.7
million in CY 2013.
Expenditures from the State Aid to the Courts Fund were
$2.6 million in FY 2013. These monies were disbursed to
Superior and Justice Courts for the processing of criminal
cases.
The Supreme Court reported that criminal case processing
was enhanced across counties through the utilization of
State Aid to the Courts Fund monies for presentence
investigators, judges, probation and domestic violence
staff, clerks, court commissioners, administrative positions,
supplemental funding to driving under the influence (DUI)
and drug courts, and the enhancement of electronic data
sharing. (Eric Billings)
Public Programs Eligibility Report - As enacted in the 2006
election, Proposition 300 limits participation in certain state
programs to citizens, legal residents, or other persons
lawfully present in the United States, and requires semiannual reports to the Joint Legislative Budget Committee.
Below is a summary of the reports:
Universities - At the 3 universities, 143,975 students registered
for the fall 2013 semester. Of the total students registered,
the universities were able to verify the legal immigration

11

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2014

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
status of 134,547 students. Additionally, the universities
reported that 12,344 of these students did not require
verification because they have either not requested, or
received in-state tuition or state supported financial aid.
The universities reported that a total of 23 students were
unverifiable due to their inability to provide the requisite
documentation.
Department of Economic Security - The department
reported that 7,295 applications were received for child
care assistance during the reporting period of June 1,
2013 to November 30, 2013. Of this number, 17 were
denied because criteria for citizenship or legal residency
were not met.
Community Colleges - Statewide, the Community
Colleges reported a total of 243,815 students classified
as in-state for the fall 2013 semester. They reported 395

students who were not entitled to be classified as instate because of a lack of lawful immigration status.
Additionally, 105,337 students applied for financial aid.
Of those who applied, the community colleges reported
that 126 were not entitled to any aid because they
were not lawfully present in the United States.
Department of Education – The department reported
that 14,004 people applied for instruction in Arizona
Adult Education during the reporting period of June 1,
2013 to December 1, 2013. Of this amount, 525 were
denied instruction because they failed to provide
evidence of citizenship or legal residence in the United
States. The Arizona Adult Education program is funded
with a combination of state and Federal Funds. (Krista
MacGahan)

December Spending
December 2013 General Fund spending of $532.9 million
was $(28.9) million lower than December 2012. Year-todate, spending is $5.5 billion, or $18.6 million above last
year.



The Department of Education spent $91.6 million
more year-to-date due to increased per-student
funding for the agency as part of the FY 2014
budget.

(See Tables 7 & 8).



Department of Economic Security expenditures are
$70.6 million greater through December due to
increased funding levels for the agency in FY 2014.

Table 7
General Fund Spending ($ in Millions)
Change From

YTD Change

Dec 13

Dec 12

Year-to-Date

from FY 13

AHCCCS

125.0

(0.8)

686.0

2.1

Corrections

73.6

1.0

469.4

13.4

Agency

Economic Security

9.6

6.4

510.3

70.6

Education

229.9

(51.4)

2,294.7

91.6

Health Serv ices

14.1

0.3

460.5

(35.7)

Public Safety

0.8

(0.8)

17.3

1.0

School Facilities Board

0.1

(0.0)

157.6

14.9

Univ ersities

44.0

5.1

469.2

14.1

Leaseback Debt Serv ice

0.0

0.0

84.1

0.0

Other

35.8

11.3

317.0

46.6

Total

532.9

(28.9)

5,466.1

218.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

(200.0)

532.9

(28.9)

5,466.1

18.6

Budget Stabilization
Fund Deposit
Grand Total

12

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2014

Table 8

General Fund Spending
($ in Thousands)
Agency
Dept. of Admin./Automation Projects Fund
ADOA – Sale/Leaseback Debt Service
Office of Administrative Hearings
Department of Agriculture
AHCCCS
Attorney General
AZ Capital Post Conviction Public
Defender
State Board of Charter Schools
AZ Commerce Authority
Community Colleges
Corporation Commission
Department of Corrections
County Funding
AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind
Department of Economic Security
Department of Education
DEMA
DEQ – WQARF
Office of Equal Opportunity
State Board of Equalization
Board of Executive Clemency
Department of Financial Institutions
Department of Fire, Bldg and Life Safety
State Forester
Arizona Geological Survey
Governor/OSPB
Department of Health Services
Arizona Historical Society
Prescott Historical Society of AZ
Independent Redistricting Comm.
Commission of Indian Affairs
Department of Insurance
Judiciary
Supreme/Superior Court
Court of Appeals
Department of Juvenile Corrections

Dec 13
5,616.5
56.0
509.3
125,009.1
714.1
-

Change from
Dec 12
5,057.8
53.1
279.1
(820.8)
(999.5)
-

Year-to-Date
24,516.9
84,119.8
448.3
4,301.9
685,961.1
10,537.5
-

YTD Change
from FY 13
9,939.1
17.8
442.0
2,070.1
(487.4)
(4.1)

31.1

(19.0)

432.2

36.9

2,625.0
217.6
35.6
73,570.1
719.2
9,577.9
229,918.9
798.8
9.7
4.0
44.5
222.8
141.4
196.9
45.6
669.9
14,059.5
183.0
60.0
107.4
1.7
393.4

(32.8)
(10.3)
1,038.8
(1,211.0)
6,429.6
(51,425.0)
225.6
9.7
(18.4)
(4.6)
22.5
128.5
11.1
35.7
65.7
259.5
6.1
12.8
(0.5)
(0.8)
60.6

15,750.0
32,932.0
244.5
469,431.3
7,150.5
11,565.6
510,301.1
2,294,699.3
3,463.5
7,000.0
97.9
328.2
418.9
1,484.1
1,053.5
1,593.0
355.7
5,348.3
460,502.3
1,753.6
361.0
804.5
29.7
2,789.1

(1,911.9)
(41.1)
13,403.0
7,150.5
(585.2)
70,640.5
91,639.5
(570.5)
42.9
(10.8)
43.0
81.7
157.1
(550.2)
(109.4)
1,307.5
(35,719.7)
16.2
14.0
69.1
2.3
286.6

1,765.7
912.9
2,891.7

280.0
(84.5)
(112.2)

46,027.3
6,934.1
19,767.9

893.4
94.8
(1,475.0)

13

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JANUARY 2014

Agency
State Land Department
Law Enforcement Merit System
Legislature
Auditor General
House of Representatives
Joint Legislative Budget Comm.
Legislative Council
Senate
Mine Inspector
Nav. Streams & Adjudication
Occupational Safety and Health Review
Phoenix Convention Center
Pioneers’ Home
Comm. for Postsecondary Ed.
Department of Public Safety
Public Safety Personnel Retirement System
Arizona Department of Racing
Radiation Regulatory Agency
Real Estate Department
Department of Revenue
School Facilities Board
Secretary of State
Tax Appeals Board
Office of Tourism
Department of Transportation
Commission on Uniform State Laws
Universities
Board of Regents
Arizona State University
Northern Arizona University
University of Arizona
Department of Veteran Services
Department of Water Resources
Department of Weights & Measures
Other - JP Salaries Distribution
Other
Total
Budget Stabilization Fund Deposit
Grand Total

Dec 13
834.4
-

Change from
Dec 12
804.7
(5.4)

Year-to-Date
6,028.7
-

YTD Change
from FY 13
5,480.5
(33.1)

1,532.7
925.4
152.5
430.8
592.7
77.2
8.1
1.9
370.8
753.5
5,000.0
(0.4)
147.7
4,536.1
97.6
669.9
17.1
485.3
0.2
-

209.3
52.8
7.7
69.2
(121.2)
(17.8)
(0.4)
1.9
319.8
(817.8)
5,000.0
(60.7)
(2.1)
1,808.4
(10.2)
(630.9)
(0.0)
53.7
0.2
-

9,511.4
5,915.4
996.1
3,672.2
3,937.3
617.7
59.6
2.3
20,449.0
811.4
698.4
17,275.8
5,000.0
1,789.8
747.6
1,320.8
29,541.2
157,559.8
6,700.4
144.5
2,925.8
1.2
55.7

908.2
535.0
85.2
(431.8)
214.7
5.6
(3.1)
2.3
14,854.0
222.2
973.6
5,000.0
(0.7)
18.6
103.5
8,058.5
14,865.9
(4,119.8)
3.6
263.7
(17.6)
55.7

1,175.8
19,640.4
6,562.5
16,596.4
380.6
760.9
83.6
532,943.4
532,943.4

1,464.5
2,259.2
646.5
725.6
160.8
21.2
(48.5)
(13.1)
(28,885.8)
(28,885.8)

12,378.3
208,417.9
69,869.9
178,508.0
2,594.7
5,140.4
592.1
371.8
0.4
5,466,140.3
5,466,140.3

(7,590.0)
13,555.2
3,829.9
4,353.8
(43.2)
638.1
(98.4)
(9.3)
0.4
218,563.9
(200,000.0)
18,563.9

Total Non-Farm Employment

Tracking Arizona’s Recovery
January 2014
Appendix A

2,800

2,700

Thousands of Jobs

Slide:
2……Total Non-Farm Employment
3……Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
4……State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
5……State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting
Category
6……Single Family Building Permits
7……Maricopa County Pending Foreclosures
8……Coincident Index

2,600

2,500

2,400

2,300

2,200

2001

1

JLBC

2002

2003

2004

2006

2009

2011

JUL

JAN

JULY

JUL

2010

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2008

JAN

JUL

2007

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2005

JLBC

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JAN

2,100

2012 2013

2

Not seasonally adjusted

State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
$225

40,000

$200

35,000

$ in Millions

Total Monthly Claims for UI Benefits

45,000

30,000
25,000

$175

$150

20,000
15,000

$125

2005

2006

2008

2009

2010

2011

Oct-13

Jul-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan 12

Apr 12

Oct 11

July 11

Jan 11

Oct 10

Apr 11

Apr 10

July 10

Jan 10

Oct 09

Apr 09

July 09

Jan 09

Oct 08

Jan 08

Apr 08

July 08

Oct 07

July 07

Jan 07

Apr 07

JUL

JAN

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2007

Not seasonally adjusted

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2004

JAN

JUL

2003

JAN

JUL

2002

JAN

JUL

JAN

JAN

2001

JLBC

Oct 06

$100
5,000

July 06

10,000

2012 2013

3

JLBC

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

4

State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting Category

Single Family Building Permits
100,000

$100

Single Family Building Permits

90,000

$50

$25

70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000

2001
Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

JLBC

5

2003

2004

JLBC

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

JUL

JAN

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2005

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2002

2013

6

12-Month Moving Sum

Maricopa County Pending Foreclosures

Economic Activity Index
210

50,000

200

Coincident Index Value

60,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

190
180
170
160
150

2003

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

An initial notice of trustee sale has been recorded but final sale has not yet occurred

2012

2001

7

JLBC

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2012

Source: Coincident Index – Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Combines four state-level indicators
(employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary
disbursements) to summarize current economic conditions.

JUL

JAN

JULY

JUL

2011

JAN

JUL

2010

JAN

JUL

2009

JAN

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JUL

JAN

2013

JAN

140

JUL

JAN

JAN

2011

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JUL

2004

JAN

JAN

JUL

JUL

2002

JAN

JAN

0

JLBC

JAN

JUL

0
JAN

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan 12

Oct 11

Apr 12

July 11

Jan 11

Oct 10

Apr 11

July 10

Jan 10

Apr 10

Oct 09

July 09

Jan 09

Apr 09

Oct 08

Jan 08

Apr 08

July 08

Oct 07

Jan 07

July 07

Oct 06

Apr 07

10,000
July 06

$0

80,000

JAN

$ in Millions

$75

2013

8