JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights
1716 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Phone:
(602) 926-5491
Fax:
(602) 926-5416

Summary
September General Fund revenue collections
totaled $800.3 million. Base revenues, which
exclude one-time adjustments, were 2.4%
above September 2012. This year-over-year
change excludes the temporary 1-cent sales
tax which expired at the end of May 2013.
This lower than expected revenue growth was
caused by a significant amount of Corporate
Income Tax refunds processed in early
September. These refunds were the result of
greater tax credit activity, however due to
taxpayer confidentiality, any other information
on the September refunds is unavailable.

www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

“Year-to-date,
General Fund
revenues are
3.8% above the
prior year and
are $(17.4)
million below
forecast.”

October 2013

September revenues fell below the budgeted
amount by $(25.1) million during the month.
Year-to-date, General Fund revenues are 3.8%
above the prior year and are $(17.4) million
below forecast.
In comparison to revenue of $800.3 million,
September 2013 spending was $723.0 million
which is a decline of $(23.9) million from the
prior year. Fiscal year-to-date, General Fund
revenues of $2.19 billion have been offset by
$3.73 billion of expenditures.
The state’s fiscal health can also be measured
by the operating fund balance. The state pays
its bills out of the operating fund balance,
which consists of the General Fund and certain
dedicated funds. The operating balance as of
mid-October 2013 is $1.8 billion. In addition,
the state’s Budget Stabilization Fund has a
balance of $454.4 million.

Granite Mountain Hotshots – Public Benefits
At an interim meeting of the House Committee
on Public Safety, Military, and Regulatory Affairs,
the JLBC Staff presented a Summary of Public
Benefits being distributed to survivors of the
Granite Mountain Hotshot crew who were killed
in the line of duty fighting the Yarnell Hill Fire. In
total, survivors of the 19 firefighters are projected
to receive annual ongoing benefit payments of
$802,600 per year, along with one-time lump
sum benefits totaling $7.0 million. The amount of
public benefits awarded to survivors of each
individual firefighter depends on employment
and family status, as outlined in the JLBC Staff
presentation.
Internet Sales Taxation
At the October 17 meeting of the Joint Task
Force on Income Tax Reform, the JLBC Staff
presented a summary of fiscal issues related to
Internet Sales Taxation and proposed federal
legislation (Marketplace Fairness Act) which
would authorize the state to collect sales tax
from retailers with no physical presence in
Arizona. The presentation reviewed current
research estimating the potential revenue gains
from the taxation of internet retail sales, and the
potential challenges of forecasting the impact
of legislation such as the Marketplace Fairness
Act.
A frequently cited study by the University of
Tennessee has projected that Arizona state and
local sales taxes would increase by $370 million
under the Marketplace Fairness Act (the state
share would be approximately $190 million).

Table of Contents

This report has been
prepared for the Arizona
Legislature by the Joint
Legislative Budget
Committee Staff on
October 21, 2013.

Summary

 ACJC - Anti-Racketeering Revolving Fund .... 8

 Granite Mountain Hotshots Public Benefits .... 1

 ADC - Report on Transition Program Fund ..... 9

 Internet Sales Taxation ....................................... 1

 ADC - Transition Release Program ................... 9

 CPS Funding......................................................... 2

 DES - Annual Child Care Expenditures ............ 9

 October FAC Summary ..................................... 2

 DES - Report on DD Rates .................................. 9

September Revenues ............................................ 2

 DHS - Annual Report on SMI ............................ 10

Economic Indicators .............................................. 5

 JLBC Staff - Credit Card Transactions ........... 10

Summary of Recent Agency Reports

 DOR - Annual Enforcement Goals Report .... 10

 AHCCCS - Report GME Distributions................ 8

 DOT - Annual Report on MVD Wait Times ..... 10

 AHCCCS - Report on DSH Payments ............... 8

 Universities - Performance Funding................ 11

 AHCCCS - Report on SNCP Program .............. 8

September Spending ........................................... 11
Tracking Arizona’s Recovery .............Appendix A

 AG - Report on Incarceration Costs Offset .... 8

2

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2013

Summary

(Continued)

Upon further analysis, that estimate appears to
be significantly overstated. The JLBC Staff will be
doing further work with the Department of
Revenue to refine an in-state estimate of
Arizona’s potential revenue gain.
Child Protective Services (CPS) Funding
At the October 17 meeting of the CPS Oversight
Committee, the JLBC Staff made a presentation
summarizing Child Protective Services Funding.
The presentation outlined the various funding
sources for CPS, and highlighted the $46 million
added to the CPS budget in FY 2013 and the
additional $65 million added to CPS in FY 2014.
October FAC Summary
The Finance Advisory Committee (FAC) met on
October 4, 2013 to update its 4-sector revenue
forecast. The FAC is a 15-member panel of
private and public sector economists and their
views serve as one of the 4 equal inputs into
JLBC’s Consensus Baseline revenue forecast. The
remaining 3 inputs are the JLBC Staff forecast
and 2 University of Arizona (UA) models. The
Consensus forecast provides a perspective on
base revenue, which reflects underlying
economic conditions and does not include
factors such as tax law changes and Urban
Revenue Sharing.
The JLBC Staff provided the FAC with a
presentation on updated FY 2014 – FY 2017

“For the first
quarter of the

are 7.0% above
the prior year
and are $13.1
million above
forecast.”

 The state ended FY 2013 with $201 million
more in the ending balance than
budgeted.
 Year-to-date FY 2014 revenue growth has
been slightly below forecast.
 Using the 4-sector forecast, revenues are
projected to grow by 5.3% to 5.5% annually
between FY 2015 and FY 2017.
 Under these assumptions, the state would
gradually spend down the significant
accumulated General Fund balance, as
ongoing spending is expected to exceed
ongoing revenue through FY 2017.
 The projected FY 2015 ending balance is
$163 million. General Fund shortfalls would
begin in FY 2016, with a projected ending
balance of $(202) million. Excluding the FY
2016 shortfall, the FY 2017 ending balance
is estimated to be $(303) million. The
ending balance estimates exclude the
$454 million Rainy Day Fund.
The FAC also heard presentations on the
current status of the U.S. economy and state
cash flows.
The JLBC Staff has both a Narrative Summary
and a Slideshow Presentation of the updated
budget updates.

September Revenues
Table 1

General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions)

fiscal year, sales
tax collections

budget projections, with the key points of the
presentation summarized below:

September
Year-to-Date

FY 2014
Collections
$ 800.3
$ 2,190.1

Sales Tax collections of $335.8 million were 6.7%
above September 2012 and $4.8 million above
the forecast for the month. The year-over-year
change amounts exclude the temporary 1-cent
sales tax which expired at the end of May 2013.
For the first quarter of the fiscal year, sales tax
collections are 7.0% above the prior year and
are $13.1 million above forecast.
Table 2 displays the September growth rates for
the largest sales tax categories.

Difference From
Budget Forecast
$ (25.1)
$ (17.4)

Difference
From FY 2013
$ (62.8)
$ (113.3)

Retail and contracting together account for
about 60% of all sales tax revenues. September
retail, which reflects August sales, increased by
9.8%. This continues the relatively strong growth
in the retail category, with 4 consecutive months
exceeding 8%.
Contracting collections have generally been
much more volatile than retail. However, the
September increase of 14.3% represents the fifth
consecutive month of double-digit increases
compared to the prior year.

3

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2013

September Revenues
Table 2

Sales Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year
Retail
Contracting
Use
Restaurant & Bar

“The September
increase brings
withholding tax
collections for
the fiscal year to
5.7% over the
prior year.”

September
9.8%
14.3%
10.0%
0.7%

YTD
8.9%
16.9%
6.6%
1.7%

Individual Income Tax net revenues were
$371.8 million in September, which was 12.5%
greater than the prior year. Collections were
$27.3 million above the forecast for the month.
Year-to-date, revenue has grown 6.7% over
the prior year, and is $14.0 million above the
budget forecast.
The September positive forecast variance
was primarily due to the increase in
withholding collections. As indicated in Table
3, withholding was up 11.1% for the month.
This compares to the (1.4)% decrease in
August. The September increase was mainly
due to variances in processing days between
the 2 months. The September increase brings
withholding tax collections for the fiscal year
to 5.7% over the prior year. This amount is
$(9.8) million below the budget forecast.
September estimated and final payments
were 16.0% above last year, and were $(1.8)
million below forecast. Year-to-date,
payments are $(0.6) million below the
forecast.
September refunds were 10.6% above last
year, and were $6.5 million below forecast.
Year-to-date, refunds are $20.6 million below
forecast.
Table 3
Individual Income Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year
Withholding
Estimated +
Final Payments
Refunds

September
11.1%
16.0%
10.6%

YTD
5.7%
16.8%
19.5%

(Continued)

Corporate Income Tax net collections were
$97.9 million in September, which is $(35.0)
million less than September of the prior year.
Collections were $(37.9) million below the
budget forecast. The September shortfall was
largely due to increased tax credit activity.
Year-to-date, collections are down (24.2)%
compared to the prior year, and are $(43.6)
million below the budget forecast.
Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) revenues
consist of gasoline and use fuel (diesel) tax,
motor carrier fees (commercial carriers),
vehicle license tax and registration fees, and
various other fees. HURF collections of $102.8
million in September were up $2.5 million, or
2.5%, compared to September of last year.
Year-to-date revenues are 2.6% above
collections in the prior year, and are $4.9
million above the budget forecast.

4
Table 4

General Fund Revenue:
Change from Previous Year and FY 2014 Enacted Budget Forecast
September 2013
Current Month

FY 2014 YTD (Three Months)

Change From
Actual

September 2012

September 2013

Amount

Change from
Actual

Enacted Forecast

Percent

Amount

Percent

September 2012

September 2013

Amount

Enacted Forecast

Percent

Amount

Percent

Taxes
Sales and Use
Income - Individual
- Corporate
Property
Luxury - Tobacco
- Liquor
Insurance Premium
Estate

$335,831,770

$21,026,238

371,782,566

41,309,188

$4,790,673

1.4 %

12.5

97,909,483
42,361

6.7 %

27,292,988

7.9

(35,014,434)

(26.3)

(37,866,610)

(13,794)

(24.6)

(57,639)

59,697,191

(27.9)

133,534,520

(42,582,375)

(24.2)

(43,565,237)

(24.6)

(57.6)

250,703

(63,472)

(20.2)

(149,297)

(37.3)

149,653

7.2

0

0.0

6,119,472

2,340,000

701,757

42.8

0

0.0

8,119,985

29,042,831

(5,638,924)

(16.3)
--

(17,132,369)

0

40,292

14,489

$839,209,303

$22,534,173

Lottery

3,969,739

820,299

26.0

469,739

License, Fees and Permits

2,054,382

140,519

7.3

154,382

3,175

1,377

76.6

3,175

Sub-Total Taxes

$66,160,142

952,940,524

2,220,000

0

Other Taxes

$1,005,504,442

56.2
2.8 %

0
(34,708)
($23,007,665)

(249,606)

7.0 %
6.7

$13,096,590
14,047,867

1.3 %
1.5

(3.9)

(190,528)

(3.0)

1,010,537

14.2

839,985

11.5

(2,026,101)

(1.8)

(37.1)

111,967,295

--

0

0

(46.3)

292,509

178,584

$2,218,729,449

$82,124,899

13.4

7,287,764

1,228,384

20.3

787,764

12.1

8.1

7,270,259

(149,521)

(2.0)

(29,741)

(0.4)

--

4,210

(351)

(7.7)

(2.7) %

-156.8
3.8 %

(10,907,005)
0
67,509
($26,760,117)

(8.9)
-30.0
(1.2) %

Other Revenue

Interest
Sales and Services
Other Miscellaneous
Disproportionate Share
Transfers and Reimbursements
Sub-Total Other Revenue
TOTAL BASE REVENUE

2,084,196
(734,692)
0

--

(215,093)

(9.4)

(415,804)

(16.6)

4,146,882

(129,732)

(3.0)

(853,118)

(17.1)

(2,742,356)

--

(2,234,692)

--

3,081,868

(2,291,597)

(42.6)

(618,132)

(16.7)

--

0

0

(12.5)

1,767,954

507,446

0

437,293

(817,495)

$7,814,093

($2,812,749)

$847,023,396

4,210

$19,721,424

-(65.2)

0
(62,707)

(26.5) %

($2,085,907)

(21.1) %

$23,558,937

2.4 %

($25,093,572)

(2.9) %

$2,242,288,386

($835,371)
$81,289,528

-40.3

0
267,954

-17.9

(3.4) %

($441,063)

(1.8) %

3.8 %

($27,201,180)

(1.2) %

Other Adjustments
Urban Revenue Sharing

40,770

(0.1)

Budget Plan Transfers

0

0

--

0

--

85,786,473

Sales Tax - 1¢ Increase

0

(78,565,390) (100.0)

0

--

2,611,367

Sub-Total Other Adjustments
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE

(46,709,330)

(46,709,330)
$800,314,066

(3,910,660)

9.1

(82,476,050)

-- %

($62,754,626)

(7.3) %

40,770
($25,052,802)

(0.1) %

(140,617,223)

(52,219,384)

(3.0) %

$2,190,069,002

1.5 %

$306,900,159

(12,221,213)
49,786,473
(232,120,047)

9.5

(366,923)

138.3

7,541,148

(98.9)

2,611,367

(194,554,788)

-- %

($113,265,260)

(4.9) %

9,785,591
($17,415,589)

0.3
9.6
-(15.8) %
(0.8) %

Non-General Funds
Highway User Revenue Fund

$102,824,363

$2,510,283

2.5 %

$1,507,143

$7,858,870

2.6 %

$4,868,457

1.6 %

5

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2013

Recent Economic Indicators
NATIONAL

“The Conference
Board’s U.S.
Consumer
Confidence
Index decreased
(2.6)% in
September… it
may not yet
include changes
due to the
federal
government
shutdown.”

The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer
Confidence Index decreased (2.6)% in
September, but was 16.5% above the prior
year’s measure. The monthly decrease was
thought to be the result of a lowered job
outlook and recent performance of equity
markets. As the latest reading was taken for
September, it may not yet include changes
due to the federal government shutdown.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Economic
Index grew by 0.7% in August and by 4.2%
above the reading in August 2012. August’s
growth follows on strong growth of 0.5% in July.
The measure’s improvement in August was
largely due to improvement in labor and
financial market components of the index.
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA)
reported that Semiconductor Billings (3-month
moving average) in the Americas increased
2.5% in August, to $5.15 billion. This reading
represented the fourth consecutive month of
growth in billings and the largest year-over-year
growth (23.3%) since February 2011.
Semiconductors are Arizona’s largest
international export industry.
Due to the federal government shutdown,
updated figures are not available for several
national economic indicators usually covered
in the Monthly Fiscal Highlights.
ARIZONA
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s
coincident index gauges current economic
activity in each state. The index combines 4
indicators: employment, average hours worked
in manufacturing, unemployment rate, and
inflation-adjusted wages.
In August, 40 out of 50 states had increases in
their coincident indexes. Arizona’s coincident
index increased by 0.2% compared to the prior
month. Year-over-year, the Arizona index is 2.3%
above last year, which is the thirty-first highest
growth rate in the country. While this is a
significant improvement, Arizona’s index is still
(9.8)% below its peak, which occurred in August
2007. See Appendix A – Tracking Arizona’s
Recovery for additional historical information.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia also
publishes a leading index for each state that

forecasts economic conditions for the next 6
months. In addition to the coincident index,
Arizona’s leading index is based on Arizona
housing permits, Arizona initial unemployment
insurance claims, national manufacturing
delivery times, and the interest rate spread
between the 3-month and 10-year Treasury
instruments.
Using a 3-month average, Arizona’s leading
index projects that state GDP will grow at an
annualized rate of 3.4% over the next 6 months.
This is higher than the revised 3.3% growth
projection in July and higher than the 2.6%
projection in August 2012.
Housing
The number of Maricopa County pending
foreclosures decreased from 6,881 in August
to 6,526 in September. The September total is
significantly below the peak in December
2009 (51,466). See Appendix A – Tracking
Arizona’s Recovery.
The total housing inventory in the greater
Phoenix area increased from 22,862 in
September 2012 to 23,384 in September 2013,
a 2.3% increase.
In the Metropolitan Phoenix area, the median
price of a single family home was $192,000 in
August. This represents a (1.1)% decrease
from July, and a 28.0% increase from August
of last year.
Another measure of the health of the Arizona
real estate market is permitting activity. For
the 3-month period through August, a total of
1,700 single-family building permits had been
issued statewide, a 9.8% increase from last
year. While permitting activity has seen gains,
the current level of permitting remains far
below a more normal 3-month average of
3,000 to 4,000 permits. See Appendix A –
Tracking Arizona’s Recovery.
The multi-family housing sector has also seen
gains, with the 3-month period ending in
August resulting in a total of 352 multi-family
building permits being issued in the state.
However, this figure remains well below the
peak of activity in April 2007.

6

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2013

Recent Economic Indicators (Continued)
State Agency Data

“At the
beginning of
October, total
AHCCCS
caseloads
equaled 1.27
million members,
a (0.9)%
decrease from
the prior month.
Overall, AHCCCS
caseloads are
currently (1.0)%
below October
2012 levels.”

At the beginning of October, total AHCCCS
caseloads equaled 1.27 million members, a
(0.9)% decrease from the prior month.
Overall, AHCCCS caseloads are currently
(1.0)% below October 2012 levels. The
traditional acute care AHCCCS population,
which consists primarily of lower income
children and their parents, decreased by
(0.7)% since last month while decreasing
(0.9)% from a year ago. The total population
in this program is almost 900,000.
The childless adult program has not allowed
new participants since July 2011 but will allow
new participants again beginning on January
1, 2014. Since July 2011, the population has
declined (153,648) to 70,844. As a whole, the
Proposition 204 program has declined (1.0)%
compared to the prior month, and (11.2)%
from the prior year.
KidsCare I provides coverage for 5,762
children with incomes above those in the
traditional population. Its enrollment has
declined since a freeze was implemented in
January 2010. Enrollment declined (14.9)%
compared to the prior month and (35.4)%
from the prior year. AHCCCS has indicated
that the large decrease from the prior month
is likely the combination of premium nonpayment and shifts to the traditional program.
Beginning on May 1, 2012, AHCCCS began a
new program, entitled KidsCare II. The state
match is provided by voluntary payments
from political subdivisions. As of the beginning
of October, 39,560 children were enrolled in
KidsCare II. KidsCare II expires on December
31, 2013. At that time, children in both
KidsCare I and KidsCare II up to 133% of the
Federal Poverty Level will transfer to the
traditional acute care program.
There were 37,725 TANF recipients in the state
in August, a monthly caseload increase of
3.1%. Year-over-year, the number of TANF
recipients has declined by (10.6)%. The
statutory lifetime limit on cash assistance is 24
months.
The appropriation for TANF cash assistance in
the FY 2014 budget funds an average
monthly caseload of approximately 34,346
recipients in FY 2014. The 37,725 TANF

recipients includes 1,722 tribal recipients.
These recipients belong to tribes that operate
their own TANF program but contract with the
state for program administration, meaning
there were 36,003 state-funded TANF
recipients in August.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance
Program (SNAP), formerly known as Food
Stamps, provides assistance to low-income
households to purchase food. In August, there
were a total 1.1 million food stamp recipients
in the state, a 0.8% increase over the prior
month. Compared to the same month last
year, food stamp participation was down by
(0.8)%. The number of SNAP recipients began
increasing steadily in July 2007, after several
years in the 550,000 to 575,000 range.

7

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2013

Recent Economic Indicators

(Continued)

Table 5

ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Indicator
Arizona
- Unemployment Rate (SA)
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Unemployment Insurance Recipients
- Non-Farm Employment - Total
Manufacturing
Construction
- Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing
- Contracting Tax Receipts (3-month average)
- Retail Sales Tax Receipts (3-month average)
- Residential Building Permits (3-month moving average)
Single-family
Multi-unit
- Greater Phoenix Home Sales
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Greater Phoenix Median Home Price
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Greater Phoenix S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
(Jan. 2000 = 100)
- Foreclosure Activity, Maricopa County
Pending Foreclosures (Active Notices)
- Greater Phoenix Total Housing Inventory, (ARMLS)
- Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers
- Revenue Per Available Hotel Room
- Arizona Average Natural Gas Price
($ per thousand cubic feet)
- Arizona Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Arizona Coincident Index (July 1992 = 100)
- Arizona Leading Index -- 6 month projected growth rate
- Arizona Personal Income
- Arizona Population
- AHCCCS Recipients
Acute Care Traditional
Prop 204 Childless Adults
Other Prop 204
Kids Care I
Kids Care II
Long-Term Care – Elderly & DD
Emergency Services
- TANF Recipients
- SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients
- ADC Inmate Growth (3-month average)
- Probation Caseload
Non-Maricopa
Maricopa County
United States
- Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2005 dollars, SAAR)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Leading Indicators Index (2004 = 100)
- U.S. Semiconductor Billings (3-month moving average)
- Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100)

Time Period

Current Value

Change From
Prior Period

Change From
Prior Year

August
September
September
August
August
August
August
July-Sept
July-Sept

8.3%
18,652
40,828
2.49 million
154,900
125,200
41.7
$43.2 million
$157.3 million

0.3 %
(9.0)%
(8.7)%
1.6%
(1.1)%
(1.5)%
1.0%
(2.2)%
(1.7)%

0.0%
3.5%
(13.6)%
2.0%
(0.8)%
4.7%
1.7%
16.9%*
8.9%*

Jun-Aug
Jun-Aug

1,700
352

(4.7)%
(39.3)%

9.8%
14.5%

August
August

8,113
1,188

(9.3)%
(4.5)%

(12.0)%
(5.6)%

August
August
July

$192,000
$118,000
139.36

(1.1)%
(4.1)%
1.5%

28.0%
31.1%
18.9%

September

6,526

(5.2)%

(55.3)%

September
August
August
July

23,384
3.31 million
$45.68
$4.46

9.4%
(0.7)%
0.2%
(8.6)%

2.3%
(2.7)%
6.5%
7.7%

3rd Quarter 2013
August
June-Aug
2nd Quarter 2013
July 1, 2012
October

August
August
Jun-Aug

72.5
182.38
3.4%
$243.1 billion
6.55 million
1,273,584
887,906
70,844
147,981
5,762
39,560
54,221
67,310
37,725
1,118,512
40,677

4.2%
0.2%
0.2%
1.5%
N/A
(0.9)%
(0.9)%
(1.7)%
(0.6)%
(14.9)%
0.7%
0.2%
(1.4)%
3.1%
0.8%
70 inmates

N/A
2.3%
0.8%
2.6%
1.3%
(1.0)%
(0.7)%
(26.5)%
(1.5)%
(35.4)%
101.4%
2.3%
5.1%
(10.6)%
(0.8)%
827 inmates

August
August

17,708
25,108

(51)
(131)

(394)
(375)

2nd Quarter 2013
(3rd Estimate)
September
August
June-August
August

$15.7 trillion

2.5%

1.6%

79.7
96.6
$5.15 billion
233.5

(2.6)%
0.7%
2.5%
0.1%

16.5%
4.2%
23.3%
1.5%

* Excludes the temporary 1¢ increase that expired at the end of May 2013.

8

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2013

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
AHCCCS – Report on Graduate Medical Education
Distributions – Pursuant to an FY 2014 General
Appropriation Act footnote, the Arizona Health Care
Cost Containment System (AHCCCS) is required to notify
the JLBC before expending any Graduate Medical
Education (GME) monies in excess of $160.2 million in FY
2014. AHCCCS reports that they intend to distribute
$186.5 million in total funds in FY 2014. The GME program
reimburses hospitals with GME programs for the
additional costs of treating AHCCCS members with
graduate medical students. Statute allows local,
county, and tribal governments, along with public
universities, to provide the state match for GME, and
entities may designate the recipients of such funds. The
voluntary contributions receive an approximate 2:1
match from the Federal government. (Amy Upston)
AHCCCS – Report on Disproportionate Share Hospital
Payment Distributions – Pursuant to an FY 2014 General
Appropriation Act footnote, the Arizona Health Care
Cost Containment System (AHCCCS) is required to notify
the JLBC before expending any Disproportionate Share
Hospital (DSH) payments from the voluntary match
portion of the program in excess of $28.5 million in FY
2014. AHCCCS reports that they intend to distribute
$43.3 million in total funds in FY 2014 for voluntary DSH
payments. The DSH program provides supplementary
payments to hospitals that serve a large, or
disproportionate, number of low-income patients. The
FY 2014 budget appropriated $3.0 million from the
General Fund ($9.3 million in total funds) to private
hospitals for DSH payments. The FY 2014 Health and
Welfare Budget Reconciliation Bill also continues to
allow local, county, and tribal governments, along with
public universities, to provide state match for additional
DSH payments, and entities may designate the
recipients of such funds. The voluntary contributions
receive an approximate 2:1 match from the Federal
government. (Amy Upston)
AHCCCS – Report on Safety Net Care Pool Program –
Pursuant to an FY 2014 General Appropriation Act
footnote, the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment
System (AHCCCS) reported on the monies received
from local government hospital assessments for the
Safety Net Care Pool (SNCP) program in FY 2013. The
SNCP program funds unreimbursed costs incurred by
hospitals in caring for uninsured and AHCCCS recipients.
Local governments or public universities provide the
state match, and the voluntary contributions receive an
approximate 2:1 match from the federal government.
As a federal condition of participating in the program,
some of the monies must be used for coverage
expansion of the KidsCare and the childless adult
population.

In April 2012, AHCCCS received federal approval to
establish the SNCP program. The program was
expanded a year later using monies collected from a
City of Phoenix hospital assessment. AHCCCS reports
that these payments resulted in an additional $376.3
million in total fund distributions to hospitals in FY 2013 and
$48.8 million in total funds expended for coverage
expansion. In June 2013, this resulted in an additional
36,026 children covered through KidsCare II program and
1,588 additional persons covered through the childless
adult program. More detail is provided in the table
below.
In addition to the Phoenix hospital assessment, 4 other
cities (Casa Grande, Globe, Mesa, and Tucson) have
requested to expand the SNCP program using state
match monies from a hospital assessment. At the time of
this writing, AHCCCS is still awaiting approval from the
federal government to expand the program using
additional assessment monies. (Amy Upston)
Table 6

FY 2013 SNCP and Coverage Expansion
($ in Millions)
State
Match

Original SNCP Agreement
City of Phoenix SNCP
Agreement
Total Safety Net Care Pool
Payments to Hospitals
KidsCare II and Childless Adult
Coverage Expansion
Grand Total

Federal
Match

Total
Funds

$72.6

$158.8

$231.5

49.7

95.1

144.8

122.3

254.0

376.3

11.0

37.8

48.8

$133.3

$291.7

$425.0

Attorney General – Report on Incarceration Costs Offset
by Monetary Judgments – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 31-238, the
Office of the Attorney General (OAG) is required to
report semiannually on the use of monetary judgments
awarded to inmates to offset the costs of incarceration.
From January 1, 2013 to June 30, 2013, the state did
exercise its right to offset the costs of incarcerating
inmates under this statute. In Shepler v. State of Arizona,
the inmate’s cost of incarceration exceeded $296,000.
The OAG served the inmate’s attorney an Offer of
Judgment in the amount of $2,500, which was accepted.
(Matt Gress)
Arizona Criminal Justice Commission - Report on AntiRacketeering Revolving Fund - Pursuant to A.R.S. § 132314.01, the Arizona Criminal Justice Commission (ACJC)
is required to report by September 30 each year on the
Anti-Racketeering Revolving Fund (ARRF) by compiling
Attorney General, department, and agency reports into
a single comprehensive report of sources and
expenditures.

9

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2013

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
In FY 2013, ARRF received revenues totaling $42.1 million
and had expenditures totaling $24.8 million. Seizures by
investigating and prosecuting agencies were highest in
Maricopa County in FY 2013 at $21.4 million. Agencies
participating in Maricopa County cases also accounted for
the highest expenditure total for FY 2013 with $17 million in
ARRF monies spent.
ARRF consists of monies derived from seized property and
assets that result from judgments pursuant to antiracketeering statutes. Once a settlement or conviction is
reached, the Attorney General disperses the monies to the
involved state and local investigative and prosecutorial
agencies. Additionally, assets seized as part of a federal
investigation are deposited into the fund and used in
accordance with state and federal guidelines. Monies in
the ARRF are used to help fund the investigation and
prosecution of any offense defined as racketeering
pursuant to Arizona statutes. (Krista MacGahan)
Department of Corrections - Report on Transition Program
Fund – Pursuant to the FY 2014 General Appropriation Act
(Laws 2013, 1st Special Session, Chapter 1), the State
Department of Corrections (ADC) is required to submit a
report on or before October 1, 2013 on the uses of the
Transition Program Fund (TPF) established by A.R.S. § 31-284,
so as to allow the Legislature to consider returning the use
of these monies to the intended statutory purpose in the FY
2015 budget. Fund revenue consists of 5% of gross wages
earned by non-DUI inmates and from cost savings resulting
from the implementation of the Transition Program.
Beginning in FY 2012, the appropriation was increased by
$2,750,000 and legislative authorization has allowed the
fund to be used for operating expenditures.
For FY 2013, the fund started with a balance of $1,175,100.
The fund generated $1,006,600 in revenue from non-DUI
inmate wages, $897,100 from the Transition Program cost
savings, and $533,300 from the one-time transfer of all
revenues, expenditures, and fund balances from the
Transition Services Fund, which was merged into the TPF.
ADC reported that they used $1,758,300 for operating
expenses for offender operations and community
correction services. ADC utilized $1,146,900 for the
Transition Program, including payments to a private vendor
for case management and programming. ADC reports 447
inmates completed the Transition Program and their early
supervised lease for a savings of 50,589 bed days. At the
end of FY 2013, the TPF balance was $706,900.
For FY 2014, the $1,866,600 in fund revenue will consist of
$1,006,600 from non-DUI inmate wages and $860,000 from
the cost savings from the Transition Program. The FY 2014
budget reduced the amount available to be allocated for
operating expenditures to $1.2 million. ADC allocates a
total of $1.2 million for operating expenditures in the report.
In addition, the fund will also expend $1,300,000 for the

Transition Program. This will leave the TPF with a balance
of $31,300 at the end of FY 2014. (Micaela Larkin)
Department of Corrections - Report on Transition Release
Program – Pursuant to A.R.S § 31-285, the State
Department of Corrections (ADC) is required to submit
an annual report that details the cost reductions to the
department from an inmate early release Transition
Program and the number of participants who did not
receive an early release under the Transition Program.
Statute requires ADC to contract with a private or
nonprofit entity to provide eligible drug offenders with
transition services. The ADC Transition Release Program
allows eligible inmates in the Transition Program to be
released 3 months earlier than the inmate’s earliest
release date.
In FY 2013, the department reports that 840 participants
successfully completed the Transition Program and their
term of community supervision while an additional 447
participants completed the Transition Program and
continued their term of community supervision. A total
of 68 participants failed to complete the early transition
release by violating their conditions of supervision. In
total, the program is responsible for 50,589 bed days
saved which translates into a savings of $860,013.
(Micaela Larkin)
Department of Economic Security - Report on Annual
Child Care Expenditures - A.R.S. § 46-810 requires the
Department of Economic Security (DES) to provide an
annual child care report to the Committee. The FY 2013
report shows that the average number of children
served decreased to 25,696, or (7.7)% below FY 2012; the
number of families served decreased by (7.2)%. Across
categories, the number of children served in the Low
Income Working category (including those in special
circumstances) decreased (18.5)%, CPS-related
placements increased by 9.0%, and the number of
Temporary Assistance for Needy Families-related
children decreased by (10.4)%, while the number of
children receiving transitional child care decreased by
(10.1)%.
The amount spent by DES on child care subsidies
decreased to $107.1 million, or (7.4)% below FY 2012.
The average monthly subsidy paid per child increased
0.4% to $347.25. The total amount of co-payments
decreased (17.3)% from FY 2012 to $5.8 million. (Ben
Beutler)
Department of Economic Security - Report on
Reimbursement Rates for Developmental Disabilities
Programs - Pursuant to A.R.S. § 36-2959, the Department
of Economic Security (DES) has provided its annual study
of Medicaid reimbursement rates to service providers in
the Developmental Disabilities program. The study
states that the provider network meets the test of

10

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2013

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
maintaining a sufficient number and mix of providers.
The study further states that the FY 2014 rates are
adequate and appropriate. (Tom Ritland)
Department of Health Services - Annual Report on
Individuals with a Serious Mental Illness – Pursuant to
A.R.S. § 36-3415, as added by Laws 2013, 2nd Session,
Chapter 299, the Arizona Department of Health Services
(DHS) is required to report annually on behavioral health
demographics, utilization and expenditures. The DHS
report focuses on members with a Serious Mental Illness
(SMI), including demographics, service utilization and
expenditures, medical necessity oversight practices,
tracking of high cost beneficiaries, mortality trends,
placement trends, program integrity, and access to
services.
DHS states that of the 39,621 members with an SMI
diagnosis enrolled in Arizona’s public behavioral health
system in FY 2013, 51% resided in Maricopa County. Of
enrolled SMI members, 73% were Medicaid-eligible. In
FY 2013, the annual per capita expenditure was $10,600
for Medicaid-eligible members and $2,900 for NonMedicaid-eligible members. DHS attributes the
discrepancy to the benefit package available to the
latter group, which is more limited than what is used by
Medicaid-eligible members. DHS reports that the annual
per capita expenditure rate outside of Maricopa
County was $5,700 compared to $11,200 inside
Maricopa County.
The most widely used services by members during FY
2013 were case management, pharmacy/medications,
and peer support. Of all members, 98% used case
management services, 70% were prescribed
medications, and 33% relied on peer support services.
Additionally, 17% of members accessed at least once
during FY 2013 hospital, in-home, or mobile crisis
intervention services that stabilize or prevent a sudden
or potentially dangerous behavioral health episode.
(Matt Gress)
JLBC Staff – FY 2013 Reports on Credit Card Transactions
–A.R.S. § 35-142 requires agencies that accept credit
cards to annually report the number and dollar amount
of those transactions, compared to the number and
dollar amount of all transactions. Statute also requires
information on the total dollar amounts of any discount,
processing, or convenience fees paid. Lastly, each
agency must issue a cost benefit report when its
percentage of electronic transactions exceeds 30%.
Unchanged from FY 2012, no agency issued a cost
benefit report to accompany its FY 2013 transaction
report.
Credit card transaction volumes varied widely among
the agencies that submitted reports. The total number
of transactions and their respective dollar amounts may
have been understated for both FY 2012 and FY 2013

due to reporting issues. In FY 2013, the total number of
transactions processed by these agencies was 2.2
million, of which electronic transactions totaled 1.0
million. The total dollar amount of all transactions was at
least $715.0 million. Electronic transactions accounted
for $530.4 million of that total. The amount of discount
and processing fees were $1.7 million. Convenience
charges that totaled $474,475 offset those fees. (Matt
Gress)
Department of Revenue – Annual Enforcement Goals
Report – Pursuant to 2 General Appropriation Act
footnotes, the Department of Revenue (DOR) is required
to report on their FY 2014 revenue enforcement goals,
and to provide an annual progress report to the
Committee on the effectiveness of the department’s
overall enforcement and collections program for FY
2013.
In FY 2013, DOR’s enforcement goal was $488.5 million,
but they actually collected $504.0 million. DOR’s FY 2014
goal for enforcement collections totals $488.8 million.
DOR’s General Fund FY 2014 revenue enforcement goal
is $381.2 million, which is $26.5 million, or 7.5%, above FY
2013 actual collections. Compared to actual FY 2013
General Fund enforcement revenue, DOR’s FY 2014
goals consist of:

An increase in audit revenue of $1.5 million, or
1.7%.

An increase in collections revenue of $53.3
million, or 33.1%.

A decrease in accounts receivables revenues of
$(28.4) million, or (26.6)%.
Audit enforcement revenue includes revenue due to
DOR’s auditing of taxpayer returns, and finding and
licensing unlicensed businesses. Accounts receivable
revenue includes taxpayer accounts paid before they
would have been moved to collections, which allows
DOR’s collectors to work on other accounts. After
certain periods of time, unpaid taxpayer accounts are
moved from accounts receivable to DOR’s Collections
Section. (Eric Billings)
Arizona Department of Transportation – Annual Report
on Motor Vehicle Division Wait Times – A FY 2013 General
Appropriation Act footnote requires the Arizona
Department of Transportation to report to the Legislature
annually on customer wait times in Motor Vehicle
Division field offices and vehicle registration renewal by
mail turnaround times. In metropolitan areas, the
average customer wait time from receiving a ticket until
arriving at the counter increased from 26.2 minutes in FY
2012 to 31.6 minutes in FY 2013. In non-metropolitan
areas, the average customer wait time increased from
13.9 minutes in FY 2012 to 14.9 minutes in FY 2013. ADOT
partially attributes the increase in wait times to the
introduction of the Photo First project, which is a fraud

11

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2013

Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued)
prevention measure requiring all drivers’ license and
identification card customers to take a photo upon
arrival to an MVD office, increasing the number of
photos taken by 30%. Average customer wait times in
metropolitan areas ranged from 16.8 minutes in the
Apache Junction office to 42.3 minutes in the Glendale
office in FY 2013.
The average turnaround time for vehicle registration
renewal by mail decreased by (31.3)% from 1.6 days in
FY 2012 to 1.1 in FY 2013. (Ben Beutler)

Joint Legislative Budget Committee (JLBC) by July 1,
2013 on the final allocation of performance funding for
each university. ABOR received a new allocation of $5.0
million in FY 2014 for a performance-based funding
model. According to ABOR, they allocated $2.7 million
to Arizona State University, $1.1 million to Northern
Arizona University, and $1.2 million to the University of
Arizona. These allocations are based on a performance
funding model recently adopted by ABOR, which
includes the following: 1) incremental degrees awarded,
2) incremental completed student credit hours, and 3)
incremental external research and public service dollars
brought into the university system. (Art Smith)

Universities – Performance Funding Report – Pursuant to
a footnote in the FY 2014 General Appropriation Act
(Laws 2013, 1st Special Session, Chapter 1, Section 95),
the Arizona Board of Regents (ABOR) is to report to the

September Spending
September 2013 General Fund spending of $723.0 million
was $(23.9) million lower than September 2013. Year-todate, spending is $3.7 billion, or $(114.2) million below
last year.
(See Tables 7 & 8).



The Department of Education spent $45.7 million more
year-to-date due to increased per-student funding for
the agency as part of the FY 2014 budget.



Department of Economic Security expenditures are
$36.7 million greater through September due to
increased funding levels for the agency in FY 2014.

Table 7
General Fund Spending ($ in Millions)
Change From

YTD Change

Sept 13

Sept 12

Year-to-Date

from FY 13

AHCCCS

104.9

(16.9)

323.2

(14.7)

Corrections

73.4

1.7

227.9

11.8

Agency

Economic Security

7.8

15.8

419.6

36.7

Education

233.0

(37.0)

1,602.4

45.7

Health Serv ices

15.9

2.6

414.8

(36.2)

Public Safety

1.9

0.1

11.9

1.3

School Facilities

0.1

(0.7)

152.8

11.2

246.5

(2.3)

330.8

8.0

0.0

0.0

84.1

0.0

...Board
Univ ersities
Leaseback Debt
Serv ice
Other

39.6

12.8

162.6

22.0

Total

723.0

(23.9)

3,730.2

85.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

(200.0)

723.0

(23.9)

3,730.2

(114.2)

Budget Stabilization
Fund Deposit
Grand Total

12

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2013

Table 8

General Fund Spending
($ in Thousands)
Agency
Department of Administration
ADOA Sale/Leaseback Debt Service
Office of Administrative Hearings
Department of Agriculture
AHCCCS
Arts, AZ Commission on the
Attorney General
AZ Capital Post Conviction Public
Defender
State Board of Charter Schools
AZ Commerce Authority
Community Colleges
Corporation Commission
Department of Corrections
AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind
Department of Economic Security
Department of Education
DEMA
DEQ – WQARF
Office of Equal Opportunity
State Board of Equalization
Board of Executive Clemency
Department of Financial Institutions
Department of Fire, Bldg and Life Safety
State Forester
Arizona Geological Survey
Governor/OSPB
Department of Health Services
Arizona Historical Society
Prescott Historical Society of AZ
Independent Redistricting Comm.
Commission of Indian Affairs
Department of Insurance
Judiciary
Supreme/Superior Court
Court of Appeals
Department of Juvenile Corrections

Sept 13
10,183.5
92.6
575.2
104,861.7
1,601.2
-

Change from
Sept 12
9,566.8
10.9
(33.0)
(16,890.0)
144.3
(0.0)

Year-to-Date
13,958.0
84,119.8
238.8
2,213.0
323,219.5
6,449.5
-

YTD Change
from FY 13
7,165.2
19.8
135.0
(14,726.9)
835.6
(4.1)

9.8

(41.4)

250.3

42.2

2,625.0
222.4
35.4
73,402.4
1,087.5
7,775.1
233,023.4
451.0
14.5
51.0
47.4
320.6
131.5
204.4
56.4
656.6
15,926.7
231.7
49.7
175.3
3.3
351.7

(43.0)
(6.3)
1,721.9
(833.6)
15,767.6
(36,967.0)
59.1
3.6
1.3
10.6
120.7
111.0
(11.4)
(12.2)
87.1
2,564.0
32.3
(45.2)
(11.1)
4.4
31.6

7,875.0
16,338.5
120.9
227,909.2
5,406.1
419,591.2
1,602,412.1
1,637.2
46.9
190.7
237.7
878.2
562.6
794.1
181.0
2,049.9
414,750.8
1,076.9
167.7
518.3
10.2
1,450.6

(223.4)
(0.5)
11,778.3
(1,056.9)
36,708.9
45,725.2
459.9
(7,000.0)
(1.8)
(10.9)
26.8
224.3
52.9
(202.1)
1.6
253.1
(36,153.7)
58.1
(13.9)
169.7
(4.0)
165.3

2,033.8
996.3
2,996.8

253.9
1.9
(372.2)

23,317.8
3,402.4
9,566.9

1,057.6
72.4
(946.0)

13

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2013

Agency
State Land Department
Law Enforcement Merit System
Legislature
Auditor General
House of Representatives
Joint Legislative Budget Comm.
Legislative Council
Senate
Mine Inspector
Nav. Streams & Adjudication
Phoenix Convention Center
Pioneers’ Home
Comm. for Postsecondary Ed.
Department of Public Safety
Arizona Department of Racing
Radiation Regulatory Agency
Real Estate Department
Department of Revenue
School Facilities Board
Secretary of State
Tax Appeals Board
Office of Tourism
Department of Transportation
Commission on Uniform State Laws
Universities
Board of Regents
Arizona State University
Northern Arizona University
University of Arizona
Department of Veteran Services
Department of Water Resources
Department of Weights & Measures
Other - JP Salaries Distribution
Other
Total
Budget Stabilization Fund Deposit
Grand Total

Sept 13
658.4
-

Change from
Sept 12
581.4
(5.1)

Year-to-Date
2,428.3
-

YTD Change
from FY 13
2,291.0
(15.1)

1,393.4
864.9
142.1
1,010.8
574.2
90.9
9.6
24.5
1,865.4
29.7
177.2
5,049.8
108.0
2,818.8
17.6
163.5
0.3
8.7

147.2
(89.5)
7.6
616.8
27.3
20.9
(0.0)
25.5
58.6
(21.8)
34.2
2,796.3
(659.7)
(85.6)
1.7
(514.5)
(3.3)
8.7

4,443.9
2,692.3
475.7
2,082.2
1,791.7
344.9
27.5
20,449.0
437.5
44.0
11,914.6
1,779.5
404.1
769.5
16,583.9
152,807.2
4,225.2
84.7
485.6
0.5
55.7

501.6
255.2
55.3
650.5
194.0
21.1
(7.5)
14,854.0
(44.1)
(44.0)
1,253.8
64.9
316.5
4,370.5
11,216.0
(2,369.9)
3.6
(822.1)
(12.4)
55.7

5,107.2
109,009.8
37,057.3
95,336.6
396.6
791.7
107.2
21.9
723,030.4
723,030.4

308.6
(1,358.8)
636.7
(1,839.5)
84.9
102.0
(15.4)
21.9
(23,886.1)
(23,886.1)

6,024.2
145,878.7
50,182.3
128,718.9
1,292.0
2,423.4
278.5
85.6
3,730,152.9
3,730,152.9

716.8
3,159.6
1,910.1
2,176.9
100.5
366.5
(12.6)
(22.6)
85,791.3
(200,000.0)
(114,208.7)

Tracking Arizona’s Recovery

Total Non-Farm Employment
2,800

October 2013
Appendix A

2,700

Thousands of Jobs

Slide:
2……Total Non-Farm Employment
3……Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
4……State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
5……State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting
Category
6……Single Family Building Permits
7……Maricopa County Pending Foreclosures
8……Coincident Index

2,600

2,500

2,400

2,300

2,200

2001

1

JLBC

2005

2006

2007

2008

2010

2011

JUL

JAN

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2009

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JUL

JAN

2004

2012 2013

2

Not seasonally adjusted

State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
$225

45,000
40,000

$200
35,000

$ in Millions

30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000

$175

$150

$125

2006

2007

Not seasonally adjusted

2008

2009

2010

2011

Jul-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan 12

Apr 12

Oct 11

July 11

Jan 11

Apr 11

Oct 10

Apr 10

July 10

Jan 10

Oct 09

Apr 09

July 09

Jan 09

Oct 08

July 08

Jan 08

Apr 08

Oct 07

July 07

Jan 07

JUL

JAN

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2005

JAN

JUL

2004

JAN

JUL

2003

JAN

JUL

2002

JAN

JUL

JAN

JAN

2001

Apr 07

$100

5,000

Oct 06

10,000

July 06

Total Monthly Claims for UI Benefits

2003

JLBC

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

JLBC

2002

JAN

JUL

JAN

JAN

2,100

2012 2013

3

JLBC

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

4

State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting Category

Single Family Building Permits
100,000

$100

Single Family Building Permits

90,000

$50

$25

70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000

Jul-13

JLBC

5

2002

JLBC

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2011

JUL

JAN

JULY

JUL

2010

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2004

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2003

2012 2013

6

12-Month Moving Sum

Maricopa County Pending Foreclosures

Economic Activity Index
210

50,000

200

Coincident Index Value

60,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

190
180
170
160
150

2003

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

An initial notice of trustee sale has been recorded but final sale has not yet occurred

2012

7

2001

JLBC

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Source: Coincident Index – Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Combines four state-level indicators
(employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary
disbursements) to summarize current economic conditions.

JUL

JAN

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JUL

JAN

2013

JAN

140

JUL

JAN

JULY

JAN

JUL

JUL

JAN

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JUL

2004

JAN

JAN

JUL

JUL

2002

JAN

JAN

0

JLBC

JAN

JUL

JUL

2001
Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

JAN

0
JAN

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan 12

Oct 11

Apr 12

July 11

Jan 11

Apr 11

Oct 10

Jan 10

Apr 10

July 10

Oct 09

July 09

Jan 09

Oct 08

Apr 09

July 08

Jan 08

Apr 08

Oct 07

Jan 07

July 07

Oct 06

Apr 07

10,000
July 06

$0

80,000

JAN

$ in Millions

$75

2013

8