JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights
1716 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Phone:
(602) 926-5491
Fax:
(602) 926-5416

Summary
November General Fund revenue collections
totaled $645.2 million. Base revenues, which
exclude one-time adjustments, were 8.0%
above the prior year.
November revenue growth was driven by the 2
largest revenue categories: Individual Income
and Sales Taxes. Both categories grew by over
8% compared to the prior year.

www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

In terms of Individual Income Taxes, the change
in collections was caused by an abnormally low
amount of refunds in November, as they
declined (78)% from the prior year. Withholding
only grew by 1.9% in November.
Sales Tax collections were helped by growth in
the retail category, which posted its largest
percentage gain (9.2%) in 16 months.

“Year-to-date,
revenues are
4.0% higher than
last year and are
$19.8 million
above the
budget

December 2012

Total November General Fund collections were
$17.7 million above the enacted May budget
forecast. Year-to-date, revenues are 4.0%
higher than last year and are $19.8 million
above the budget forecast.
In comparison to revenue of $645.2 million,
November 2012 General Fund spending was
$540.2 million, or $(20.4) million below last year.
November expenditures were lower than last
year primarily due to decreased enrollment in
the Medicaid program.
Fiscal year-to-date, General Fund revenues of
$3.6 billion have been offset by $4.9 billion in
spending.

forecast.”

The state’s fiscal health can also be measured
by the operating fund balance. The state pays
its bills out of the operating fund balance, which
consists of the General Fund and certain
dedicated funds. As of mid-December 2012,
the operating balance is $1.3 billion.
In addition, the state has $451.8 million in
Budget Stabilization Fund reserves, which
represents an original $450 million deposited as
part of the FY 2013 budget plus $1.8 million of
interest earned.
This edition of the MFH also includes information
on:
•
•
•
•

Potential Fiscal Cliff “Windfall”
Mortgage Settlement Update
JLBC State Funds Report
Income Tax Credit Review Findings

Potential Fiscal Cliff "Windfall"
The possibility of Bush-era tax cuts expiring on
December 31, 2012 may shift some Arizona
individual income tax collections forward
into tax year 2012 that would have otherwise
occurred in future years. Regardless of whether
Congress resolves the "fiscal cliff" prior to
January, investors appear to have already
proactively taken steps to avoid even the
potential of higher tax rates in January. As a
result, investors’ TY 2012 personal income could
increase substantially, which may result in higher
FY 2013 income tax collections in April. This
short-term gain, however, could be offset by
lower than expected income liability in future
years.

Table of Contents

This report has been
prepared for the Arizona
Legislature by the Joint
Legislative Budget
Committee Staff on
December 20, 2012.

Summary ..................................................................1

Summary of Recent Agency Reports

• Potential Fiscal Cliff “Windfall”..........................1

• ADOA – Motor Vehicle Fleet Report ............... 9

• National Mortgage Settlement ........................2

• AHCCCS – Healthcare Group Report........... 10

• State Funds Report..............................................2

• ACJC – Anti-Racketeering Fund ................... 10

• Income Tax Credit Review ................................3

• Mine Inspector – Abandoned Mines ............ 10

November Revenues..............................................3
Economic Indicators ..............................................6

• SFB – Report on Litigation Costs ..................... 10
• Supreme Court – Probation Services ............ 10
• Postsecondary Ed – Loan Forgiveness .......... 11

JLBC Meeting ...........................................................9

• Postsecondary Ed. – Grant Program............. 11

JCCR Meeting..........................................................9

November Spending ........................................... 12
Tracking Arizona’s Recovery.............Appendix A

2

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2012

Summary

“As a result of
[the shift in tax]
activities,
Arizona will likely
receive
increased final
income tax
payments in
April 2013.”

(Continued)

Barring new legislation, the maximum federal
tax rate of 15% applied to long-term capital
gains and qualified dividends will revert to its
higher pre-2003 rate of 20% in January 2013. At
the highest income levels, the federal income
tax rate on certain dividends could increase
from 15% in December to 39.6% in January. (This
excludes the new 3.8% surcharge on investor
income which is being used to help finance
federal health care changes).
While the magnitude of this potential tax year
shifting is difficult to predict in advance, it could
be substantial. The Congressional Budget
Office, for example, has projected that the
nation’s TY 2012 capital gains realizations would
grow by 52% (to $651.2 billion) while TY 2013
realizations would recede (36)% (to $419.7
billion). In addition, numerous companies
appear to be paying significantly higher
dividends in the last quarter of calendar year
2012. According to a market research
company, the amount of nationwide 4th
quarter dividends ($30 billion) is 4 times that
paid in the fourth quarter of 2011.
As a result of these activities, Arizona will likely
receive increased final income tax payments in
April 2013. These increases though, would come
at the expense of revenue collections in future
periods. JLBC Staff is working to quantify these
potential impacts. Some of the short term
benefit of tax shifting could be offset by the
absence of a one-time $60 million individual
income tax payment that was made in January
2011.
National Mortgage Settlement Update
Arizona residents have received more than $880
million in assistance to date through the
National Mortgage Settlement, according to a
recently released report. The settlement is a
result of state and federal investigations that 5
loan servers did not act legally in signing
foreclosure documents, thus acting fraudulently
in services and practices. The total settlement
was $25 billion, of which Arizona’s total share
was $1.3 billion.
The 5 loan servers, Bank of America, CitiBank,
GMAC/Ally, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo,
have released a report on how settlement
money has been allocated within the state.
According to the loan servers, approximately
13,000 Arizona residents have been helped
through the settlement. Of the $880 million,
approximately $762 million represents short sales

approved by lenders. An additional $121 million
reflects assistance for refinancing and modifying
existing underwater mortgages. In 2013, the
banks will be audited to confirm that they are
complying with the terms of the settlement.
These monies are in addition to a $97 million
direct payment from the settlement to the
Attorney General’s office. Along with a $10
million settlement with Bank of America, $57
million will be used as follows:
•
•
•
•
•

$41 million for direct assistance to help keep
residents in their home and consumer
restitution;
$5 million for enforcement and monitoring;
$5 million for housing counseling;
$4 million for legal services; and
$2 million for outreach, marketing, and
education.

The remainder, $50 million, has been set aside
by the Legislature to help balance the FY 2013
budget. Those funds have yet to be transferred
to the General Fund, based on the outcome of
pending litigation. In May 2012, a lawsuit was
filed arguing that the state could not transfer
money from the settlement to the General
Fund. In October 2012, a Superior Court judge
ruled that the State Legislature can decide how
to spend the funds from the settlement. An
appeal has been filed with the Court of Appeals
to overturn the ruling.
State Funds Report
A.R.S. § 41-1273 requires the JLBC Staff to
annually report to the Joint Legislative Budget
Committee (JLBC) on statutorily deleted and
newly created funds, including funds that
changed appropriated status from the prior
fiscal year. Below is a summary of the JLBC
Annual State Funds Report, and the entire report
is available on our website.
During the 2012 legislative session, the state
statutorily made the following fund changes:
•
•
•

Created 7 new funds with FY 2013
expenditures totaling $26.1 million.
Eliminated 5 funds with FY 2012 expenditures
totaling $9.6 million.
Permanently changed 10 Department of
Agriculture funds from appropriated to nonappropriated status. Spending from these
funds sums to $2.6 million in FY 2013.

Total state spending is $27.9 billion in FY 2013.

3

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2012

Summary (Continued)
The largest category of spending is Federal
Funds (34%), followed by the General Fund
(31%), Non-Appropriated Funds (23%), and
Other Appropriated Funds (12%).
Income Tax Credit Review Findings
The Joint Legislative Income Tax Credit Review
Committee (JLITCRC) is statutorily responsible for
an annual review of individual and corporate
income tax credits.
“November
retail, which
reflects
October sales,
increased by

At its December 6, 2012 meeting, the JLITCRC
reviewed the JLBC Staff Report and
Presentations regarding 9 income tax credits
which were being evaluated according to the
criteria outlined in statute, such as: cost,
complexity and effectiveness. Statute requires
income tax credits to be reviewed according to
a given schedule, which is typically every 5
years.

9.2%. This is

The Committee recommended the
continuation of the:

•
•
•
•
•

Family Income Tax Credit
Commercial Solar Energy Device Credit
Military Family Relief Fund Credit
Private School Tuition Credit
Public School Extracurricular Activity Credit

The JLITCRC also recommended new
performance measures for several of these
credits.
In addition, the Committee recommended the
elimination of the:

•
•
•
•

Solar Hot Water Heater Plumbing Stub Outs
and Electric Vehicle Recharge Outlet Credit
Military Reuse Zone Credit
Environmental Technology Facility Credit
School Site Donation Credit.

the largest
percentage
increase in the
retail category

November Revenues
Table 1

in 16 months
(since June,
2011).”

November
Year-to-Date

General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions)
FY 2013
Collections
$ 645.2
$ 3,611.1

Sales Tax collections were $386.4 million, or 8.1%
above November 2011 and $10.5 million above
the budget forecast for the month.
Year-to-date, sales tax collections are 4.6%
above the prior year and are $19.6 million above
forecast.
Table 2 displays the November growth rates for
the largest categories.
Retail and contracting together account for
almost 60% of all sales tax revenues. November
retail, which reflects October sales, increased
by 9.2%. This is the largest percentage increase
in the retail category in 16 months (since June,
2011). As we have noted in prior reports, the
retail category began to grow in December
2010. Retail growth continued through the first

Difference From
Budget Forecast
$ 17.7
$ 19.8

Difference
From FY 2012
$ 36.3
$ (13.5)

part of last fiscal year, but slowed during the last
quarter of FY 2012 due primarily to the high
growth rates in the last quarter of FY 2011.
Table 2

Sales Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

Retail
Contracting
Utilities
Use
Restaurant & Bar

November
9.2%
9.2%
8.1%
14.4%
5.8%

YTD
5.5%
2.5%
4.7%
0.0%
7.2%

Overall, the retail category grew by 5.0% in FY
2012 compared to the prior year. With the
November growth rate of 9.2%, the year-todate growth rate of 5.5% slightly exceeds last

4

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2012

November Revenues

(Continued)

year’s retail growth rate. Contracting collections
have been much more volatile than retail, but
also increased by 9.2% this month. The
November increase brings the year-to-date
increase in contracting to 2.5%.
Individual Income Tax net revenues were $277.8
million in November, or 8.3% more than the prior
year. Collections were $1.9 million, or 0.7%
above the budget forecast. Year-to-date,
revenues have grown 5.3% and are $30.9 million
above forecast.
The modest November increase relative to the
forecast was the net result of a small increase in
withholding tax collections, and significantly
lower than anticipated refunds.
As indicated in Table 3, withholding was up 1.9%
in November. The November increase brings
withholding tax collections for the first 5 months
of the fiscal year up to 3.6%. This amount is
$(6.8) million below the budget forecast.
Total estimated and final payments of $14.8
million were (3.2)% below last year, and were
slightly below forecast. For the first 5 months of
the fiscal year, payments are $(7.0) million
below the forecast.
Refunds of $(4.8) million were $17.0 million less
than last year’s amount. Year-to-date, refunds
are $44.7 million below forecast.
Table 3

Individual Income Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

Withholding
Estimated +
Final Payments
Refunds

November
`1.9%
(3.2)%
(77.8)%

YTD
3.6%
8.5%
(8.1)%

Corporate Income Tax net collections were $(3.2)
million in November, which is $2.6 million above
the prior year’s net collections of $(5.8) million.
Net November corporate income tax collections
are typically negative, as November is not
generally a high gross tax collection month, and
refunds are usually greater than gross payments.
Collections for the month were $8.5 million above
the forecast. Year- to-date, collections are up
4.2% and are $(2.4) million below forecast.
The Lottery Commission reports that November
ticket sales were $72.6 million, which is $21.9

million, or 43.2%, above sales in the prior year.
This increase was fueled by the $550 million
Powerball jackpot. Year-to-date ticket sales are
$271.4 million, which is 13.9% above last year’s
sales. While sales increased, net General Fund
revenues actually declined due to an increase
in the payment of debt service for the Lottery
Revenue Bonds issued in FY 2010.
Non-General Fund
Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) revenues
consist of gasoline and use fuel (diesel) tax,
motor carrier fees (commercial carriers), vehicle
license tax and registration fees, and various
other fees. HURF collections of $96.3 million in
November were up $1.7 million, or 1.8%,
compared to November of last year. Year-todate revenues are approximately equal to
collections in the prior year.

5

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2012

Table 4

General Fund Revenue:
Change from Previous Year and Enacted May Budget Forecast
November 2012
Current Month

FY 2013 YTD (Five Months)

Change From
Actual

November 2011

November 2012

Amount

Change from
Actual

Budget Forecast

Percent

Amount

Percent

November 2011

November 2012

Amount

Budget Forecast

Percent

Amount

Percent

Taxes
Sales and Use - Base*
- 1¢ Increase*
Income - Individual
- Corporate

$308,743,822

$22,446,653

77,630,387

6,658,529

9.4

277,808,006

21,298,524

8.3

(3,169,579)

2,663,501

7.8 %

--

$3,871,757

$1,552,478,449

$63,072,300

9.4

389,266,998

21,924,442

1,923,556

0.7

1,446,947,908

8,465,660

(72.8)

200,306,840

6,662,285

4.2 %

$659,509

0.0 %

6.0

18,955,851

5.1

73,366,487

5.3

30,875,993

2.2

8,057,191

4.2

(2,416,225)

(1.2)

Property

2,815,878

(512,193)

(15.4)

(19.5)

5,027,391

(825,887)

(14.1)

(1,347,609)

(21.1)

Luxury - Tobacco

2,222,710

(2,539,812)

(53.3)

0

0.0

10,466,498

(1,803,141)

(14.7)

(798,762)

(7.1)

705,998

37.0

0

0.0

12,039,815

1,102,562

10.1

399,223

(101,447)

(32.7)

(79.1)

115,501,153

(8,050,253)

(6.5)

--

0

(200,825)

(100.0)

(33.8)

209,715

(17,589)

(7.7)

- Liquor
Insurance Premium
Estate
Other Taxes
Sub-Total Taxes

2,612,698
208,825
0

0

39,698

1,609

$668,912,445

$50,621,362

-4.2
8.2 %

(684,122)

1.3 %

(791,175)
0
(20,302)
$19,427,659

3.0 %

$3,732,244,767

$156,625,287

4.4 %

(7,498,847)

3.4
(6.1)

0
(90,285)
$38,738,848

-(30.1)
1.0 %

Other Revenue
Lottery

2,723,540

License, Fees and Permits

2,590,816

Interest

2,845

(1,461,400)
643,973
(5,726)

(34.9)

(31.9)

11,423,660

(7,276,500)

(38.9)

33.1

90,816

3.6

12,657,228

1,558,314

14.0

(342,772)

(2.6)

(66.8)

(7,155)

(71.6)

(64.8)

(38,823)

(77.6)

(790,034)

(39.5)

6,843,250

82.1

11,669,434

Sales and Services

1,209,966

34,942

3.0

Other Miscellaneous

3,642,391

1,979,008

119.0

Disproportionate Share
Transfers and Reimbursements
Sub-Total Other Revenue
TOTAL BASE REVENUE

0
8,610,986

0
(688,299)

-(7.4)

$18,780,544

$502,498

2.7 %

$687,692,988

$51,123,859

8.0 %

(1,276,460)

1,642,391
0
(1,389,014)
($1,729,456)
$17,698,202

11,177

--

0

(13.9)

8,996,422

(8.4) %

$51,601,171

2.6 %

$3,783,845,937

(20,574)
236,693
(3,456,038)
0
(2,449,366)
($11,407,471)
$145,217,815

(6,576,340)

(36.5)

3.6

(5,156,750)

(43.0)

(22.8)

(3,830,566)

(24.7)

-(21.4)
(18.1) %
4.0 %

0
(3,003,578)
($18,948,829)
$19,790,018

-(25.0)
(26.9) %
0.5 %

Other Adjustments
Urban Revenue Sharing
Budget Plan Transfers
Sub-Total Other Adjustments
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE

(42,798,670)
321,236
(42,477,434)

(7,430,050)

21.0

0

0.0

(213,993,350)

(37,150,250)

21.0

0

(7,419,001)

(95.8)

0

0.0

41,207,551

(108,731,670)

(72.5)

0

(172,785,799)

(158,749,348)

-- %

0

(0.0) %

($13,531,532)

(0.4) %

$19,790,019

0.6 %

(14,849,051)

53.7 %

0

(0.0) %

$645,215,555

$36,274,809

6.0 %

$17,698,203

2.8 %

$3,611,060,139

$96,346,811

$1,734,720

1.8 %

$599,375

0.6 %

$490,019,690

0.0
0.0

Non-General Funds
Highway User Revenue Fund

$6,261

0.0 %

($5,873,901)

(1.2) %

* Total November collections including the temporary 1¢ increase approved by the voters in May 2010 were $386.4 million. This amount is $29.1 million, or 8.1%, above November 2011 and $10.5 million, or 2.8%, above
forecast.

6

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2012

Recent Economic Indicators
NATIONAL

“Consumer
prices, as
measured by the
U.S. Consumer
Price Index (CPI),
decreased by
(0.3)% in
November…the
first monthly
decrease since
May.”

According to the U.S. Department of
Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, the
U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the
third quarter of calendar 2012 increased at an
annual rate of 2.7%. This growth represents an
upward revision from the preliminary estimate
of 2% and a further acceleration from the 1.3%
rate estimated for the second quarter of 2012.
Improvement in the rate was mainly caused by
increases in residential fixed investment, Federal
spending, and inventory investment.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Economic
Index increased by 0.2% in October to a
reading of 96. The latest reading is 2.3% above
that in October 2011. For the first time since
March 2012, the index realized a consecutive
month of growth. Only four of the index’s 10
components increased during the month
though, with the main drivers of overall growth
being increased capital good orders and
favorable consumer interest rates.
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA)
reported that Semiconductor Billings (3-month
moving average) in the Americas increased
8.1% in October to $4.79 billion. The month’s
reading was the highest since June 2011 and
also marked the first month of year over year
growth since that time.
Consumer prices, as measured by the U.S.
Consumer Price Index (CPI), decreased by
(0.3)% in November and grew by 1.8% above
the prior year. This latest reading represents the
first monthly decrease since May. During
November, a 0.2% increase in core inflation (all
prices except for food and energy) was more
than offset by a (7.4)% decrease in gasoline
prices.
ARIZONA
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s
coincident index gauges current economic
activity in each state. The index combines 4
indicators: employment, average hours worked
in manufacturing, unemployment rate, and
inflation-adjusted wages.
In October, 41 out of 50 states had increases in
their coincident indexes. Arizona’s coincident
index increased by 0.2% compared to the prior
month. Year-over-year, the Arizona index is 2.7%

above last year, which is the 22nd highest growth
rate in the country. While this is a significant
improvement, Arizona’s index is still (11.1)%
below its peak, which occurred in August 2007.
See Appendix A – Tracking Arizona’s Recovery
for additional historical information.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia also
publishes a leading index for each state that
forecasts economic conditions for the next 6
months. In addition to the coincident index,
Arizona’s leading index is based on Arizona
housing permits, Arizona initial unemployment
insurance claims, national manufacturing
delivery times, and the interest rate spread
between the 3-month and 10-year Treasury
instruments.
Using a 3-month average, Arizona’s leading
index projects that state GDP will grow at an
annualized rate of 3.4% over the next 6 months.
This is unchanged from the revised 3.4% growth
projection in September and higher than the
3.1% projection in October 2011.
Housing
The number of Maricopa County pending
foreclosures decreased from 13,458 in October
to 11,973 in November. This represents the sixth
consecutive monthly decrease in this measure.
The November total is significantly below the
peak in December 2009 (51,466). See
Appendix A – Tracking Arizona’s Recovery.
The total housing inventory in the Greater
Phoenix area decreased from 26,798 in
November 2011 to 23,232 in November 2012, a
(13.3)% decrease. This continues the decline in
inventory that started in January 2011.
As the supply of housing has declined, the price
has increased. In the Metropolitan Phoenix
area, the median price of a single family home
was $157,000 in October. This represents a 4.7%
increase from September, and a 25.7% increase
from October of last year.
Another measure of the health of the Arizona
real estate market is permitting activity. For the
3-month period through October, a total of
1,352 single-family building permits had been
issued statewide, a 44.2% increase from last
year. This level of activity is comparable to the
amount of permitting seen in September 2008,
a month which marked the beginning of the
rapid decline in the state’s housing market. Still,

7

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2012

Recent Economic Indicators
the current level of permitting remains far below
a more normal 3-month average of 3,000 to
4,000 permits. See Appendix A – Tracking
Arizona’s Recovery.
The performance of the multi-family housing
sector is similar to that of single-family housing.
For the 3-month period ending in October, a
total of 509 multi-family building permits had
been issued in the state. This figure represents a
level similar to October 2008. Multi-family
permitting activity remains (65.2)% below the
peak of activity in April 2007.
State Agency Data
“Overall
AHCCCS
caseloads are
currently (5.2)%
below
December 2011
levels.”

At the beginning of December, total AHCCCS
caseloads equaled 1.27 million members, a
(0.3%) decrease from the prior month. Overall
AHCCCS caseloads are currently (5.2)% below
December 2011 levels. The traditional AHCCCS
population, which consists primarily of lower
income children and their parents, decreased
(0.4)% from last month and (1.4)% from a year
ago. The total population in this program is
almost 900,000.
The childless adult program has not allowed
new participants since July 2011. This population
has declined (134,861) since then to 89,631. Of
the decline, (11,938) is attributed to members
who were transferred to the SSI program. As a
whole, the Proposition 204 program has
declined (1.8)% compared to the prior month,
and (25.9)% from the prior year.
KidsCare provides coverage for children with
incomes above those in the traditional
population. Its enrollment has declined since a
freeze was implemented in January 2010.
Enrollment declined (2.4)% compared to the
prior month and (38.1)% from the prior year.
Beginning on May 1, 2012, AHCCCS began a
new program, entitled KidsCare II, which
provides coverage for children up to 175% of
the Federal Poverty Level. The state match is
provided by voluntary payments from political
subdivisions. As of the beginning of December,
22,015 children were enrolled in KidsCare II.
There were 42,022 TANF recipients in the state in
October, a monthly caseload increase of 2.2%.
Year-over-year, the number of TANF recipients
has increased by 3.6%. This marks the second
month of year-over-year growth in the TANF

(Continued)

program since November 2009. Since that time,
the State reduced the lifetime limit a person
may receive cash assistance, first to 36 months
and then further to 24 months. Previously, the
maximum had been 60 months. The
appropriation for TANF cash assistance in the FY
2013 budget funds a caseload of
approximately 36,200 recipients in FY 2013.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
(SNAP), formerly known as Food Stamps,
provides assistance to low-income households
to purchase food. In October, there were a
total 1.1 million food stamp recipients in the
state, a 1.5% increase over the prior month.
Compared to the same month last year, food
stamp participation was about the same. The
number of SNAP recipients began increasing
steadily in July 2007, after several years in the
550,000 to 575,000 range.
The 3-month average count of the Department
of Corrections (ADC) inmate population
increased to 40,039 inmates in October 2012.
Relative to the prior 3-month period, the
population has increased by 64 inmates.
Compared to a year ago, the population has
declined by (18) inmates.

8

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2012

Recent Economic Indicators

(Continued)

Table 5

ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Indicator
Arizona
- Unemployment Rate (SA)
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Unemployment Insurance Recipients
- Non-Farm Employment - Total
Manufacturing
Construction
- Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing
- Contracting Tax Receipts (3-month average)
- Retail Sales Tax Receipts (3-month average)
- Residential Building Permits (3-month moving average)
Single-family
Multi-unit
- Greater Phoenix Home Sales
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Greater Phoenix Median Home Price
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Greater Phoenix S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
(Jan. 2000 = 100)
- Foreclosure Activity, Maricopa County
Pending Foreclosures (Active Notices)
- Greater Phoenix Total Housing Inventory, (ARMLS)
- Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers
- Revenue Per Available Hotel Room
- Arizona Average Natural Gas Price
($ per thousand cubic feet)
- Arizona Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Arizona Coincident Index (July 1992 = 100)
- Arizona Leading Index -- 6 month projected growth rate
- Arizona Personal Income
- Arizona Population
- AHCCCS Recipients
Acute Care Traditional
Spend Down
Prop 204 Childless Adults
Other Prop 204
Kids Care
Kids Care II
Long-Term Care – Elderly & DD
Emergency Services
- TANF Recipients
- SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients
- ADC Inmate Growth (3-month average)
- Probation Caseload
Non-Maricopa
Maricopa County
United States
- Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2005 dollars, SAAR)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Leading Indicators Index (2004 = 100)
- U.S. Semiconductor Billings (3-month moving average)
- Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100)
*Adjusted for 1¢ sales tax

Time Period

Current Value

Change From
Prior Period

Change From
Prior Year

October
November
November
October
October
October
October
Sep-Nov
Sep-Nov

8.1%
19,147
39,623
2.48 million
152,700
122,500
40.7
$36.5 million
$144.7 million

(0.1) %
(16.6)%
(13.0)%
0.5%
0.6%
1.7%
0.0%
0.9%
1.8%

(1.1)%
(10.3)%
(32.3)%
1.9%
0.8%
3.0%
1.0%
(0.0)%*
4.9%*

Aug-Oct
Aug-Oct

1,352
509

(7.1)%
4.9%

44.2%
98.8%

October
October

8,748
1,260

12.0%
14.6%

21.2%
22.9%

October
October
September

$157,000
$94,000
120.65

4.7%
4.4%
1.1%

25.7%
21.6%
20.4%

November
November
October
September
September

11,973
23,232
3.37 million
$49.48
$4.04

(11.0)%
2.3%
14.4%
1.6%
(7.1)%

(42.9)%
(13.3)%
1.4%
16.0%
(25.3)%

2nd Quarter 2012
October
Aug-Oct
2nd Quarter 2012
July 1, 2011
December

October
October
Sep-Nov

68.6
180.91
3.4%
$235.1 billion
6.48 million
1,266,727
882,915
89,631
148,328
8,379
22,015
53,190
62,269
42,022
1,137,786
40,039

(1.3)%
0.2%
0.0%
1.3%
N/A
(0.3)%
(0.4)%
(3.6)%
(0.6)%
(2.4)%
27.0%
0.2%
(0.9)%
2.2%
1.5%
64 inmates

32.2%
2.7%
0.3%
3.6%
1.1%
(5.2)%
(1.4)%
(100.0)%
(45.5)%
(5.4)%
(38.1)%
2.8%
14.3%
3.6%
0.0%
(18) inmates

October
October

18,133
25,463

155
69

(614)
(276)

3rd Quarter 2012
(2nd Estimate)
November
October
Aug. – Sept.
November

$13.6 trillion

2.7%

2.5%

73.7
95.9
$4.79 billion
231.03

0.8%
0.6%
8.1%
(0.3)%

33.5%
2.9%
2.6%
1.8%

9

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2012

JLBC Meeting
At its December 18, 2012 meeting, the Joint Legislative
Budget Committee considered the following issues:

Committee, however, did have considerable discussion
about the Advisory Commission’s future role.

School Facilities Board – Consider Approval of Index for
School Facilities Board (SFB) Construction Costs – The
Committee approved a 0% adjustment in the cost-persquare-foot factors used in SFB funding formulas based
on the 3 years worth of cost data. In 3 of 4 cost indices,
net construction prices have declined since 2008.

Department of Administration – Review of Emergency
Telecommunication Services Revolving Fund
Expenditure Plan – The Committee gave a favorable
review of the $5.5 million wireless portion of the
Emergency Telecommunications Services Revolving
Fund expenditure plan.

Department of Administration – Review of the Arizona
Public Safety Communication Advisory Commission –
The Committee gave a favorable review of the FY 2012
annual report of expenditures and progress for the
statewide interoperability design project. The

Attorney General – Review of Allocation of Settlement
Monies – The Committee gave a favorable review to the
allocation plan from the $2 million consent judgment
with Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc. The settlement will
be deposited into the Consumer Fraud Revolving Fund.

JCCR Meeting
At its December 18, 2012 meeting, the Joint Committee
on Capital Review considered the following issues:
Arizona State University – Review of Building
Infrastructure and Renovations Bond Projects – The
Committee gave a favorable review of $35 million in
Lottery bond issuances to fund $15 million in
infrastructure upgrades, $10 million in classroom
renovations, and $10 million in research laboratory
renovations.
University of Arizona – Review of Environment and
Natural Resources Building Project – The Committee
gave a favorable review of $73.5 million in Lottery bond
issuances to fund construction of an Environment and
Natural Resources classroom and research building
(ENR2).
University of Arizona – Review of Cancer Center Project -

The Committee gave a favorable review of a $73.2
million bond issuance to fund a $100 million cancer
center on the Phoenix Biomedical Campus. The facility
will be operated by St. Joseph’s Hospital of the Dignity
Health Corporation. St. Joseph’s will be responsible for
the annual debt service, which is estimated to be $3.8
million. U of A will also receive one-third of the net
annual operating income above a certain baseline. This
provision is expected to generate $5 million annually.
Arizona Department of Transportation – Review of FY
2013 Building Renewal Allocation Plan – The Committee
gave a favorable review of ADOT’s $1.1 million FY 2013
Building Renewal Allocation Plan.
Arizona Department of Administration – Consider
Recommending FY 2013 Rent Exemptions – The
Committee recommended 3 technical rent exemptions.

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
Arizona Department of Administration – Report on Motor
Vehicle Fleet – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 41-803R, the Arizona
Department of Administration reported on the FY 2012
year-end inventory of state-owned alternative fuel
vehicles. Of the 12,338 state vehicles, 4,781, or 38.8% are
subject to the alternative fuel vehicle requirements.
(Law enforcement and certain other vehicles are
exempt.)
Of the 4,781 state vehicles subject to the alternative fuel
vehicle requirements, 3,461, or 72.4% are alternative fuel

vehicles. This is an increase of 2.8% from the prior year
and exceeds the 40% target established by statute.
Statute also requires 90% of the state vehicles in
Maricopa County to be capable of using alternative
fuels. The state reports that 84.6% of its Maricopa
County vehicles are alternative fuel vehicles. This is an
increase of 1.9% from the prior year.
Notwithstanding the quantity of vehicles capable of
using alternative fuel, only 1.5% of the fuel budget for
the 6 largest state fleets was for alternative fuels. (Brett
Searle)

10

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2012

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
AHCCCS - Report on Healthcare Group - Pursuant to
A.R.S. § 36-2912AA, the Arizona Health Care Cost
Containment System (AHCCCS) submitted its financial
report for Healthcare Group (HCG) for FY 2012. The
agency reports that HCG’s operating income was $5.4
million for FY 2012. HCG began FY 2012 with total
unpaid prior year obligations and other liabilities of $6.8
million. As of June 30, 2012, total liability was $2.8 million,
with net assets of $2.2 million, its highest net asset
position since FY 2004.
Pursuant to A.R.S. § 36-2912Z, AHCCCS reports that, as of
September 2012, total statewide HCG medical plan
enrollment was 6,893, with participating members from
2,356 employers. This is a decline of (991) participating
members (12.6% decline) and (456) employers (16.2%
decline) from a year ago. AHCCCS believes that
discontinued outreach has contributed to the declining
enrollment. (Amy Upston)
Arizona Criminal Justice Commission - Report on AntiRacketeering Revolving Fund - Pursuant to A.R.S. § 132314.01, the Arizona Criminal Justice Commission (ACJC)
is required to report by September 30 each year on the
Anti-Racketeering Revolving Fund (ARRF). ACJC
compiles the Attorney General reports and the reports
of all departments and agencies into a single
comprehensive report of sources and expenditures.
In FY 2012, ARRF received revenues totaling $43 million
and had expenditures totaling $21.4 million. Seizures by
investigating and prosecuting agencies were highest in
Maricopa County in FY 2012 at $22.7 million. Agencies
participating in Maricopa County cases also accounted
for the highest expenditure total for FY 2012 with $14.2
million in ARRF monies spent.
ARRF consists of monies derived from seized property
and assets that result from judgments pursuant to antiracketeering statutes. Once a settlement or conviction
is reached, the Attorney General disperses the monies to
the involved state and local investigative and
prosecutorial agencies. Additionally, assets seized as
part of a federal investigation are deposited to the Fund
and used in accordance with state and federal
guidelines. Monies in the ARRF are used to help fund the
investigation and prosecution of any offense defined as
racketeering pursuant to Arizona statutes. (Krista
MacGahan)
State Mine Inspector – Report on Abandoned Mines
Safety Fund Expenditures and Contributions –The State
Mine Inspector is required by A.R.S. § 27-131 to establish
a program to address public safety hazards at
abandoned mines. A.R.S. § 27-131 created the

(Continued)

Abandoned Mines Safety Fund (AMSF) to fund the
program. The Mine Inspector must submit an annual
report to JLBC on or before December 1 detailing the
contributions to the AMSF, and the expenditures by the
fund during the preceding fiscal year.
For FY 2011, the State Mine Inspector recently reported
that the AMSF had no new revenue. The State Mine
Inspector secured 59 mine sites during FY 2011, at a total
cost of $43,000. The Mine Inspector completed
preliminary planning for an additional 26 mine sites in FY
2012, with an estimated cost of $23,900. The Mine
Inspector financed these activities through the fund’s
carry-forward balance. (Brett Searle)
School Facilities Board - Report on Costs for Current and
Potential Litigation – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-2041L, the
School Facilities Board (SFB) is required to annually report
on the costs associated with current and potential
litigation against the agency. The litigation account
was created to pay for attorney fees, expert witness fees
and other costs associated with litigation in which SFB
pursues the recovery of damages for construction or
design defects.
The agency is not currently in litigation and does not
expect there to be the potential for litigation in pursuing
the recovery of damages for deficiencies corrections.
The account currently has a zero balance. (Andrew
Hartsig)
Supreme Court – Report on Adult Probation Services
Fund and the Juvenile Probation Fund – Pursuant to a
General Appropriation Act footnote, the Administrative
Office of the Courts (AOC) is required to report to the
JLBC on the FY 2012 actual, FY 2013 estimated, and FY
2014 requested amounts of the following: 1) the number
of authorized and filled, case carrying and non-case
carrying, probation positions by county; 2) the total
receipts and expenditures by county and fund source
for each of the probation Special Line Items (SLI),
including the Personal Services expended from each
revenue source of each account; 3) the amount of
monies from the probation SLIs that the AOC does not
distribute as direct aid to counties.
Adult Standard Probation
Adult Standard Probation county expenditures
statewide for probation officers were $34.5 million in FY
2012, of which $12.3 million were General Fund monies.
These monies funded 245.5 authorized case carrying
positions and 389.6 authorized non-case carrying
positions. Of these positions, 233.8 case carrying and
284.4 non-case carrying positions were filled. AOC
estimates total expenditures of $34.2 million in FY 2013

11

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2012

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
and $35.6 million in FY 2014.
AOC reports Adult Standard Probation SLI expenditures
of $13.5 million in General Fund monies in FY 2012, of
which $2.0 million were for other services including
$726,211 for administration. The remaining $11.5 million
was distributed to counties.
Adult Intensive Probation
AOC reports statewide Adult Intensive Probation county
expenditures for probation officers of $9.1 million in FY
2012, of which $8.4 million were General Fund monies.
These monies funded 103.1authorized case carrying
positions and 64.6 authorized non-case carrying
positions. Of these positions, 101.5 case carrying and
56.3 non-case carrying positions were filled. AOC
estimates total expenditures of $9.2 million in FY 2013
and $9.3 million in FY 2014.
AOC reports Adult Intensive Probation SLI expenditures
of $10.7 million in General Fund monies in FY 2012, of
which $2.4 million were for other services including
$688,161 for administration and $683,822 for the Adult
Probation Enterprise Tracking System. The remaining
$8.3 million was distributed to counties.
Juvenile Standard Probation
The statewide total for Juvenile Standard Probation
county expenditures for probation officers were $19.8
million in FY 2012, of which $3.7 million were General
Fund monies. These monies funded 79.5 authorized
case carrying positions and 353.7 authorized non-case
carrying positions. Of these positions, 76.9 case carrying
and 349.7 non-case carrying positions were filled. AOC
estimates total expenditures of $21.1 million in FY 2013
and $21.9 million in FY 2014.
AOC reports Juvenile Standard Probation SLI
expenditures of $4.6 million in General Fund monies in FY
2012, of which $605,518 were for other services including
$284,536 for administration and $234,871 for Juvenile Online Tracking System (JOLTS) Automation. The remaining
$4.0 million was distributed to counties.
Juvenile Intensive Probation
AOC reports statewide Juvenile Intensive Probation
county expenditures for probation officers of $5.4 million
in FY 2012, all of which were General Fund monies.
These monies funded 57.5 authorized case carrying
positions and 39.0 authorized non-case carrying
positions. Of these positions, 52.2 case carrying and 35.1
non-case carrying positions were filled. AOC estimates
total expenditures of $5.4 million in FY 2013 and $5.6
million in FY 2014.
AOC reports Juvenile Intensive Probation SLI General

(Continued)

Fund expenditures of $8.9 million in FY 2012. Of this
amount, $3.0 million were for other services including
$441,466 for administration and $364,550 for JOLTS
Automation. The remaining $5.9 million was distributed
to counties. (Eric Billings)
Commission for Postsecondary Education – Report on
Math, Science, and Special Education Teacher Loan
Forgiveness Program – A.R.S. § 15-1782 requires the
Commission for Postsecondary Education to report
annually on its Math, Science, and Special Education
Teacher Loan Forgiveness (MSSE) program.
The MSSE program provides forgivable loans to eligible
students attending any regionally or nationally
accredited institution in Arizona (public or private) that
agree to a service commitment to teach in an Arizona
public K-12 school. The program was created in 2007.
In FY 2012 the MSSE program had 36 applicants and
disbursed 33 loans. This total includes 13 new loans and
20 renewals. The total disbursement was $159,068. Of
the 33 recipients, 20 are studying mathematics, 8 are
studying science, 4 are studying special education, and
1 is studying elementary education. Eight recipients
attend private postsecondary institutions and 25 attend
public universities. At the conclusion of FY 2012, 195
students have participated in the MSSE program. FY
2013 will be the first year the Commission begins
collecting the 5 year teacher retention data. (Tom
Ritland)
Commission for Postsecondary Education – Report on
Postsecondary Education Grant Program – A.R.S. § 151855 requires the Commission for Postsecondary
Education to report annually on its Postsecondary
Education Grant (PEG) program.
The PEG program provides grants to students attending
private postsecondary institutions. The program was
launched in March 2007 and received funding through
FY 2010. In that year, a total of $2.2 million was
disbursed to 1,400 grantees representing 20 private
postsecondary schools. The PEG application process
was temporarily suspended by the Executive for several
months in FY 2010. According to the commission, there
was a waiting list of 2,627 unfunded PEG students at the
end of FY 2010 due to budget reductions. (Tom Ritland)

12

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2012

November Spending
November 2012 General Fund spending of $540.2 million
was $(20.4) million lower than November 2011. Year-todate, spending is $4.9 billion, or $122.1 million above last
year.

Fund funding for the agency, as well as
increased charter school enrollment.
•

Department of Economic Security spending in
November was $2.8 million, or $(4.2) million less
than the prior year. The low expenditure amount
reflects operating transfers among agency
funds and does not reflect actual expenditures.

•

AHCCCS spent $(20.1) million less than
November 2011, due to lower enrollment in both
the Traditional and Proposition 204 Medicaid
programs.

FY 2013 Spending
November 2012 spending of $540.2 million was $(20.4)
million lower than November 2011 (See Tables 6 & 7).
•

The Department of Education spent $20.7 million
more than November 2011. The higher
expenditure amount reflects higher General

Table 6
General Fund Spending ($ in Millions)

Agency
AHCCCS
Corrections
Economic Security
Education
Health Services
Public Safety
School Facilities
Board
Universities
Leaseback Debt
Service
Other
Total
Budget Stabilization
Fund Deposit
Grand Total

Nov 12

Change from
Nov 11

99.7
76.8
2.8
272.4
14.3
1.3
0.8

(20.1)
(9.1)
(4.2)
20.7
2.5
(0.9)
0.7

558.1
383.5
436.5
1,921.7
482.4
14.7
142.6

(131.8)
(16.2)
9.1
(15.8)
60.7
(17.9)
9.7

43.4
0.0

(5.0)
0.0

416.1
84.1

(6.5)
35.1

28.7
540.2

(5.0)
(20.4)

239.5
4,679.2

(4.3)
(77.9)

0.0
540.2

0.0
(20.4)

Year to Date

YTD Change
from FY 12

200.0

200.0

4,879.2

122.1

13

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2012

Table 7

General Fund Spending
($ in Thousands)
Agency
Department of Administration
Department of Admin Sale/Leaseback D/S
Office of Administrative Hearings
Department of Agriculture
AHCCCS
Arts, AZ Commission on the
Attorney General
AZ Capital Post Conviction Public
Defender
State Board of Charter Schools
AZ Commerce Authority
Community Colleges
Corporation Commission
Department of Corrections
AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind
Department of Economic Security
Department of Education
DEMA
DEQ – WQARF
Office of Equal Opportunity
State Board of Equalization
Board of Executive Clemency
Department of Financial Institutions
Department of Fire, Life, Bldg Safety
Office of the State Forester
Arizona Geological Survey
Government Information Tech.
Governor
Gov. - OSPB
Department of Health Services
Arizona Historical Society
Prescott Historical Society of AZ
Independent Redistricting Comm.
Commission on Indian Affairs
Department of Insurance
Judiciary
Supreme Court
Superior Court
Court of Appeals
Department of Juvenile Corrections

November 12

Change from
November 11

Year-to-Date

YTD Change
from FY 12

2,079.6
85.1
614.2
99,735.6
2,209.6
-

1,098.8
(6.2)
(280.7)
(20,057.1)
1,196.1
(53.4)

14,019.1
84,119.8
427.6
3,629.7
558,061.1
9,311.2
4.1

4,578.8
35,069.1
59.8
(261.4)
(131,804.7)
(10.4)
1,636.5
(237.2)

53.6
2,625.0
49.6
76,788.3
466.9
2,767.2
272,394.0
424.4
34.0
67.7
215.6
25.3
399.8
184.6
487.5
125.1
14,340.3
222.1
47.2
126.5
2.4
345.1

(13.0)
(3.6)
(9,122.6)
(2,021.7)
(4,220.5)
20,691.8
462.5
(16.1)
(11.3)
(5.2)
(64.6)
(94.8)
118.5
110.5
(73.4)
(82.2)
2,471.9
(52.8)
(18.4)
(290.4)
(1.8)
(141.3)

345.1
13,125.0
32,096.3
239.7
383,497.0
10,220.6
436,512.2
1,921,715.9
3,460.7
7,000.0
55.0
316.7
326.7
1,202.1
883.5
1,957.3
455.2
2,644.9
791.6
482,421.9
1,560.5
299.7
627.4
24.9
2,169.7

3.4
(2.5)
4.7
(16,234.4)
166.8
9,104.5
(15,825.1)
(120.2)
(26.4)
(17.5)
(59.2)
(68.1)
(23.1)
(804.8)
32.3
3.1
(537.6)
(112.6)
60,682.9
(80.7)
14.9
(990.3)
(2.6)
(248.3)

970.3
1,758.6
1,024.8
3,189.7

(315.5)
539.1
(400.7)
(1,520.2)

7,784.5
35,863.8
5,841.9
18,239.1

1,411.4
(151.8)
(413.6)
(3,964.2)

14

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2012

Agency
State Land Department
Law Enforcement Merit System
Legislature
Auditor General
House of Representatives
Joint Legislative Budget Comm.
Legislative Council
Senate
Mine Inspector
Nav. Streams & Adjudication
Pioneers’ Home
Comm. for Postsecondary Ed.
Department of Public Safety
Arizona Department of Racing
Radiation Regulatory Agency
Real Estate Department
Department of Revenue
School Facilities Board
Secretary of State
Tax Appeals Board
OOffice of Tourism
Department of Transportation
Universities
Board of Regents
Arizona State University
Northern Arizona University
University of Arizona
Department of Veteran Services
Department of Water Resources
Department of Weights & Measures
Other
Total
Budget Stabilization Fund Deposit
Grand Total

November 12

Change from
November 11

Year-to-Date

YTD Change
from FY 12

31.9
5.2

(0.4)
(2.0)

518.6
27.7

(61.6)
4.1

1,333.3
816.6
134.4
394.2
573.6
88.8
7.4
38.5
1,293.2
64.8
154.6
2,394.7
840.9
1,304.0
17.6
497.9
2.9

(544.6)
(470.3)
(77.6)
(114.4)
(300.5)
(18.1)
(1.6)
(8.6)
(923.9)
(197.2)
(9.5)
(50.5)
(2,928.3)
652.9
440.4
(7.4)
497.9
1.5

7,279.8
4,507.8
766.1
3,742.4
3,008.6
517.2
54.2
538.3
698.4
14,731.0
1,790.5
668.7
1,067.5
18,755.0
142,586.2
9,519.3
123.8
2,230.5
18.8

(480.9)
(685.3)
(113.9)
1,048.8
(472.3)
(12.9)
(21.0)
(292.9)
(17,940.6)
(834.7)
(71.6)
(113.7)
(7,930.7)
9,701.6
5,022.5
(6.6)
2,230.5
4.7

4,211.6
17,381.2
5,925.8
15,870.7
393.4
726.0
101.1
1,715.4
540,179.7
540,179.7

247.8
(1,788.1)
(2,443.3)
(1,001.8)
(762.8)
(4.6)
(17.7)
1,624.8
(20,386.1)
(20,386.1)

20,257.0
177,481.5
60,124.0
158,283.5
2,418.0
3,762.6
558.4
1,863.1
4,679,150.1
200,000.0
4,879,150.1

9,943.0
(8,940.8)
(2,529.0)
(5,009.1)
(1,500.3)
1,168.5
97.7
(891.9)
(77,937.3)
200,000.0
122,062.7

Contents
Slide:
3……Total Non‐Farm Employment

Tracking Arizona’s Recovery

4……Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
5……State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category
6……State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting
Category
7……Single Family Building Permits
8……Maricopa County Pending Foreclosures
9……Coincident Index

Appendix A
December 2012

JLBC

2

JLBC

Total Non‐
Non‐Farm Employment

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
45,000

Total Monthly Claims for UI Benefits

2,800

Thousands of Jobs

2,700

2,600

2,500

2,400

2,300

2,200

40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000

JLBC

2002

2003

2004

2005

Not seasonally adjusted

2010

2001

2002

2003

2005

2009

2010

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2008

JAN

JUL

2007

JAN

JUL

2006

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2004

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

2009

JAN

JUL

2008

JAN

JUL

2007

JAN

JUL

2006

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JAN

2001

JAN

JAN

5,000
2,100

2011

2011

3

JLBC

Not seasonally adjusted

4

State Sales Tax Collections – Retail Category

State Sales Tax Collections – Contracting Category
$100

$225

$200

$ in Millions

$ in Millions

$75

$175

$150

$50

$25

5

Jul‐12

Oct‐12

Jan 12

Apr 12

Oct 11

July 11

Jan 11

Apr 11

Oct 10

July 10

Jan 10

Apr 10

Oct 09

July 09

Jan 09

Apr 09

Oct 08

July 08

Jan 08

Apr 08

Oct 07

July 07

Jan 07

Apr 07

Oct 06

July 06

Jul‐12

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

JLBC

$0

Oct‐12

Jan 12

Apr 12

Oct 11

July 11

Jan 11

Apr 11

Oct 10

July 10

Jan 10

Apr 10

Oct 09

July 09

Jan 09

Apr 09

Oct 08

July 08

Jan 08

Apr 08

Oct 07

July 07

Jan 07

Apr 07

Oct 06

$100

July 06

$125

Excludes temporary 1 ¢ sales tax

JLBC

6

Maricopa County Pending Foreclosures

Single Family Building Permits
100,000

60,000

Single Family Building Permits

90,000

50,000

80,000
70,000

40,000
60,000
50,000

30,000

40,000

20,000

30,000
20,000

10,000

10,000

JLBC

2003

2004

2005

2006

12‐Month Moving Sum

2008

2009

2010

2002

2011

7

JLBC

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2010

An initial notice of trustee sale has been recorded but final sale has not yet occurred

JULY

JAN

JUL

JUL

2009

JAN

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JUL

JAN

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JUL

JAN

JAN

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JUL

2007

JAN

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JUL

JAN

JAN

JUL

JUL

2002

JAN

JAN

JUL

JAN

2001

JAN

0

0

2011

8

Economic Activity Index
210

Coincident Index Value

200
190
180
170
160
150

JLBC

2003

2004

2005

2006

2010

Source: Coincident Index – Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Combines four state‐level
indicators (employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage
and salary disbursements) to summarize current economic conditions.

JULY

JUL

JAN

JUL

2009

JAN

JUL

2008

JAN

JUL

2007

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

JAN

JUL

2002

JAN

JUL

2001

JAN

JAN

140

2011

9