JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights

1716 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Phone:
(602) 926-5491
Fax:
(602) 926-5416

www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

“The February
forecast shortfall
was largely due
to higher than
expected
Individual
Income tax
refunds.”

March 2012

Summary
February collections declined from the prior
year, as the state experienced a significant
increase in Individual Income Tax refunds.
February General Fund revenues totaled
$307.9 million. Excluding one-time
adjustments, these base collections were
(23.8)% below last year. Overall collections
were $(49.0) million below the Baseline
forecast in February.
Year-to-date, base revenues are 5.6% higher
than last year. In total, year-to-date General
Fund collections are $(2.5) million below
forecast.
In comparison to monthly revenues of $307.9
million, February 2012 General Fund spending
was $384.8 million, or $(20.1) million below last
year. Fiscal year-to-date, General Fund
revenues of $5.8 billion have been offset by
$6.4 billion in spending.
The February forecast shortfall was largely due
to higher than expected Individual Income
Tax refunds. As the state begins to process
refund checks in February, collections are
largely driven by changes in Individual
Income Tax return activity. Since the amount
of refunds tends to be substantially larger than
withholding and payments, changes in refund
size and processing can cause large
fluctuations in February collections.

The Department of Revenue (DOR) has
indicated that as of early March, the number
of refunds processed year-to-date has
increased by 8% and the average refund has
increased 8.5% over the prior year.
In contrast to Individual Income Tax
collections, sales tax continued to show
positive gains, with base collections 5.7%
above the prior year. Sales tax collections
have increased all but one month this fiscal
year.
Finance Advisory Committee
The Finance Advisory Committee (FAC) will
meet on April 12, 2012 to consider updating its
revenue forecast. The FAC is a 15 member
panel of private and public sector economists
and their views serve as one of the 4 equal
inputs into JLBC’s Consensus Baseline revenue
forecast. The JLBC Staff and 2 University of
Arizona (UA) models are the other 3 inputs.
The UA models have been preliminarily
updated in advance of the FAC meeting.
The UA models are more optimistic for FY
2012, but forecast slower growth in FY 2013.
If the preliminary UA update is averaged with
the existing January FAC and JLBC inputs,
base FY 2012 revenue growth would increase
from 5.3% to 5.9%. The FY 2013 growth rate,
however, would decline from 5.1% to 3.5%.

Table of Contents

This report has been
prepared for the Arizona
Legislature by the Joint
Legislative Budget
Committee Staff on
March 20, 2012.

Summary

Summary of Recent Agency Reports

• Finance Advisory Committee ...........................1

• AHCCCS, DES, & DHS – FY 3013 Preliminary

February Revenues.................................................2

Actuarial Capitation Rate Changes ............... 7

Economic Indicators ..............................................4

• DES – Semi-Annual CPS Report......................... 7
• ADOT – Proposed FTE Positions ......................... 7

February Spending ................................................. 8

2 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2012

February Revenues
Table 1

General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions)

February
Year-to-Date

“The
Department of
Revenue
indicates that
both the
number of
refunds
processed and
the dollar
amount of
refunds
processed
increased in
February
compared to
the prior year.”

FY 2012
Collections
$ 307.9
$ 5,764.7

Sales Tax collections were $359.9 million, or
6.2% above February 2011 and $10.1 million
above the January JLBC Baseline forecast for
the month. Excluding the $72.1 million from the
temporary 1-cent sales tax increase,
collections were $287.8 million, or 5.7% above
February 2011. The temporary 1-cent
continues to grow more than the base tax
because of certain exemptions.
Year-to-date, base sales tax collections are
5.3% above the prior year and are $3.3 million
above forecast.
Table 2 displays the February growth rates for
the largest categories.
Table 2

Sales Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

Retail
Contracting
Utilities
Use
Restaurant & Bar

February
5.5%
12.0%
(1.8)%
1.6%
12.8%

YTD
6.5%
10.0%
0.5%
5.7%
8.3%

Retail and contracting together account for
about 60% of all sales tax revenues. February
retail, which reflects January’s sales, grew by
5.5%. Retail began to grow in December
2010. In recent months, retail growth has
continued to grow, but at a slower rate, due
in part to the stronger base in the prior year.
This trend may continue considering the high
growth rates in February through June of last
year. Contracting collections have been
more volatile, but increased by 12.0% this
month.
Individual Income Tax net revenues were
$(72.6) million in February, or $(124.6) million less
than the prior year. Collections were $(64.5)
million below the JLBC Baseline forecast. Yearto-date, revenues have grown 3.4% and are
$(18.7) million below forecast.
As indicated in Table 3, withholding increased
by 3.7% in February for a year-to-date
increase of 3.2%.

Difference From
January Forecast
$ (49.0)
$(2.5)

Difference
From FY 2011
$(114.8)
$ 424.4

Estimated Payments grew by 4.0% in February
for a year-to-date increase of 32.3%.
As noted in the Summary, February individual
income tax refunds were extraordinarily high,
both compared to the prior year, and to the
forecast. The Department of Revenue
indicates that both the number of refunds
processed and the dollar amount of refunds
processed increased in February compared
to the prior year.
Table 3

Individual Income Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year
Withholding
Estimated +
Final Payments
Refunds

February
3.7%

YTD
3.2%

4.0%
55.6%

32.3%
22.2%

Corporate Income Tax net collections were
$12.3 million in February, which is $5.3 million
above the prior year. Collections were $6.8
million above the JLBC Baseline forecast. Yearto-date, collections have grown 34.5% and are
$17.1 million above forecast.
The Lottery Commission reports that February
ticket sales were $60.8 million, which is $10.1
million, or 19.9%, above sales in the prior year.
Year-to-date ticket sales are $406.3 million,
which is 8.6% above last year’s sales.
Non-General Fund
Tobacco Tax revenues were $24.6 million in
February. Collections were up 13.7%
compared to the prior year. Year-to-date
collections are down (0.5)%, and are $(0.8)
million below forecast.
Less than 10% of tobacco taxes are deposited
directly into the General Fund. The remainder
primarily goes to AHCCCS and the Department
of Health Services to defray the General Fund
cost of operating those programs, along with
funding the Early Childhood Development
and Health Board.

3 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2012

February Revenues

(Continued)

Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) revenues consist of
gasoline and use fuel (diesel) tax, motor carrier fees
(commercial carriers), vehicle license tax and registration
fees, and various other fees. HURF collections of $108.1
million in February were up $4.5 million, or 4.3%, compared
to February of last year. Year-to-date revenues are flat
compared to the prior year.
Table 4

General Fund Revenue:
Change from Previous Year and January Baseline Forecast
February 2012
Current Month

FY 2012 YTD (Eight Months)

Change From
February 2011

Actual
February 2012

Percent

Amount

Change from
January Forecast
Percent

Amount

February 2011

Actual
February 2012

Amount

January Forecast
Percent

Percent

Amount

Taxes
Sales and Use - Base*
- 1¢ Increase*
Income - Individual
- Corporate
Property
Luxury - Tobacco
- Liquor
Insurance Premium
Estate
Other Taxes

$287,779,634

$15,438,745

$72,088,159

5,616,924

(72,643,496)

(124,624,450)

5.7 %
8.5
--

$5,853,953

$2,418,884,716

$122,819,380

6.2

601,051,477

57,132,972

10.5

3,736,131

0.6

(64,519,442)

794.2

2,076,981,659

68,065,007

3.4

(18,691,928)

(0.9)

6,778,917

121.7

4,223,984

12,347,154

5,318,534

75.7

459,510

53,621

13.2

(50,117)

5.3 %

$3,320,546

0.1 %

367,550,198

94,278,268

34.5

17,123,671

4.9

(9.8)

10,467,241

(1,715,124)

(14.1)

49,736

0.5
(1.3)

2,039,262

54,752

2.8

144,221

7.6

16,638,284

39,691

0.2

(226,233)

1,604,627

442,472

38.1

415,782

35.0

21,141,446

2,291,120

12.2

289,531

1.4

3,060,016

1,674,950

120.9

1,460,081

91.3

162,802,313

(16,025,346)

(9.0)

1,416,789

0.9

--

200,825

(236,547)

(54.1)

(1.9)

362,644

(503,361)

(58.1)

0

0

37,405

3,628

-10.7
(23.8) %

0
(719)

$306,772,271

($96,020,824)

Lottery

4,865,440

(1,540,200)

(24.0)

(2,751,757)

License, Fees and Permits

1,624,882

(1,004,015)

(38.2)

(423,433)

--

(6,296)

Sub-Total Taxes

2.1 %

($45,693,340)

(13.0) %

$5,676,080,804

$326,146,060

6.1 %

(36.1)

34,821,180

5,030,270

(20.7)

18,202,173

(761,530)

(4.0)

(63.0)

2,102,217

219,742

11.7

0
(4,628)
$7,013,616

0.0
(1.3)
0.1 %

Other Revenue

Interest
Sales and Services
Other Miscellaneous
Disproportionate Share
Transfers and Reimbursements
Sub-Total Other Revenue
TOTAL BASE REVENUE

3,704
8,962,508
762,862
0
101,199

660,041
379,592
(3,114,726)
0
(483,200)

4.4
(80.3)
-(82.7)

3,095,219
(551,600)
0
(2,699,374)

16.9

52.8

18,357,009

(1,575,542)

(7.9)

(42.0)

22,928,426

6,955,169

43.5

--

0

(27,146,306)

(100.0)

(96.4)

12,214,351

(2,683,129)

(18.0)

16,320,595

(5,102,508)

(23.8) %

(3,337,241)

(17.0) %

108,625,357

$323,092,866

($101,123,332)

(23.8) %

($49,030,581)

(13.2) %

$5,784,706,160

(19,961,324)
$306,184,736

(5,391,362)

(13.4)

(921,183)

(4.8)

(9,633)

(0.5)

(353,364)
3,799,986
0
(6,673,058)

(1.9)
19.9
-(35.3)

(15.5) %

(9,548,613)

(8.1) %

5.6 %

($2,534,997)

(0.0) %

Other Adjustments
Urban Revenue Sharing
Budget Plan Transfers
Tax Recovery Program
Sub-Total Other Adjustments
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE

(35,368,620)

4,131,923

20,132,504

(17,842,039)

0
(15,236,116)
$307,856,750

0

--

0

0.0

(282,948,960)

33,055,384

(47.0)

0

0.0

250,070,313

72,272,232

--

(13,710,116)

898.4 %

($114,833,448)

(27.2) %

-40.6

0

0.0

0

0.0

0

--

12,867,428

12,867,428

--

0

0

0.0 %

(20,011,219)

118,195,044

-- %

0

($49,030,581)

0.0
(0.0) %

(13.7) %

$5,764,694,942

$424,379,781

7.9 %

($2,534,997)

(0.0) %

Non-General Funds
Highway User Revenue Fund

$108,090,648

$4,456,816

4.3 %

$3,524,112

3.4 %

$798,834,888

$279,325

0.0 %

($9,850,352)

(1.2) %

Tobacco Tax (All Funds Total)

$24,551,259

$2,960,396

13.7 %

$6,121,919

33.2 %

$212,927,752

($979,980)

(0.5) %

($803,878)

(0.4) %

__________
* Total February collections including the temporary 1¢ increase approved by the voters in May 2010 were $359.9 million. This amount is $21.1 million, or 6.2%, above February 2011 and $10.1 million, or 2.9%, above
forecast. Year-to-date, total collections including the 1¢ increase were $3,019.9 million. This amount is $180.0 million, or 6.3%, above February 2011 and $7.1 million above forecast.

4 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2012

Economic Indicators
NATIONAL

“As a result of the
annual
benchmarking
revision of
establishment
survey data, the
Department of
Administration
(DOA) reported
in March that

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic
Index increase of 0.6% in January marked the
fourth straight month of growth in the index.
January’s increase, primarily the result of
improvement in the financial climate and
growth in average manufacturing hours
worked, signals continued growth in the next
few months.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer
Confidence Index surged by 9.3 points in
January, to a reading of 70.8. This amount
represents the index’s highest reading in the
last 12 months and a month-over-month
percentage increase of 15.1%. Consumer
optimism was likely bolstered in February by
continued reports of a steadily improving labor
market and a modest upward revision to 2011
gross domestic product. However, gasoline
prices have the potential to dampen
confidence in coming months if they continue
their ascent.

Arizona nonfarm
employment
growth in 2010
and 2011 was
marginally higher
than previous
estimates had
indicated.”

ARIZONA
Housing
The number of Maricopa County pending
foreclosures decreased from 18,287 in
January to 17,833 in February. The February
total is (65.3)% below the peak in December
2009 (51,466). See Tracking Arizona’s Recovery
for additional historical information.
Another measure of the health of the Arizona
real estate market is permitting activity.
Single-family housing permits showed a slight
improvement in January 2012. For the 12 month period through January, a total of
10,909 single-family building permits had
been issued statewide, a 2.9% increase from
last year. See Tracking Arizona’s Recovery
for additional historical information.
The performance of the multi-family housing
sector has been significantly better than
single-family housing. For the 12-month
period ending in January, a total of 2,984
multi-family building permits had been issued
in the state, a 101.8% increase from the prior
year. Even with this growth, multi-family
permitting activity still remains (77)% below
the peak of activity in June 2006.

Employment
As a result of the annual benchmarking
revision of establishment survey data, the
Department of Administration (DOA) reported
in March that Arizona nonfarm employment
growth in 2010 and 2011 was marginally
higher than previous estimates had indicated.
By incorporating more comprehensive data
based on unemployment insurance records,
the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
determined that the state added on average
4,700 more jobs per month in both 2010 and
2011 than previously reported. The historical
revision was relatively small compared to
previous years.
The largest positive revision occurred in the
professional and business services sector of
the economy. This industry added on
average 6,200 more jobs per month in 2011
than previously reported. A large portion of
these job gains were attributable to
temporary staffing agencies. In the past,
increases in temporary employment have
typically been followed by an acceleration in
permanent job growth.
The benchmarking process revealed that the
educational and health services sector did
not perform as well in 2011 as previous
estimates had shown. Prior to the March
revision, employer survey data indicated that
private education and health care
employment grew by 4.5% in 2011. The
revised data indicated that the actual 2011
job growth in this sector was (1.6)% less, or
2.9%. In spite of this downward revision, this
industry still remains one of the strongest
engines of job growth in Arizona.
The latest estimate of nonfarm employment
showed that the state shed (34,300) jobs in
January over December in the prior year. Job
losses typically occur in January when the
holiday season comes to an end. The
average job reduction for the month of
January in the prior 10 years was (59,700).
Compared to January 2011, nonfarm
employment is up by 1.6%, or 37,800 jobs.
As of January of 2012, nonfarm employment
was (303,000) jobs below pre-recession levels.
While this figure is somewhat overstated due
to seasonal factors, it still shows that the road
to full recovery is not months but years away.

5 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2012

Economic Indicators

(Continued)

Manufacturing employment shrank by (0.1)%, or (100)
jobs, in January over December. The state typically
loses manufacturing jobs in January. The industry
employed 0.7% more workers in January 2012 than
January 2011. The March benchmark revision revealed
that the manufacturing sector did not grow as quickly in
2011 as previously reported. New, revised data
indicates that manufacturing employment increased by
0.8% in 2011 compared to the previous estimate of 1.9%.
Construction employment also decreased by (100) jobs,
month over month, in January. This was significantly less
than the 10-year average loss for January of (5,700) jobs.
Year over year, construction employment is up by 5.1%.
The March data revision indicates that construction
employment bottomed out in February 2011. Despite
recent gains, construction employment remains (55)%
below peak in June 2006.
The household survey data used to estimate the state’s
unemployment rate was also revised in March. The
historical revision, which covered the period from 2007
to 2011, showed that state’s jobless rate during the
recession was significantly higher than first estimated.
The average unemployment rate in 2010 was on
average 0.5% higher than previously reported. The
corresponding figure for 2011 was 0.3%. This revision in
the unemployment rate data contrasts with the higher
than anticipated overall employment figure as the 2
measures are developed using samples from 2 separate
surveys.
State Agency Data
In March, total AHCCCS caseloads equaled 1.30 million
members, a (1.0)% decrease from the prior month.
Overall AHCCCS caseloads are currently (2.6)% below
March 2011 levels.
The traditional AHCCCS population, which consists
primarily of lower-income children and their parents,
decreased (0.6)% from February and increased 5.3%
from a year ago. The total population in this program is
almost 900,000. This growth has been offset by declines
in other populations. The Proposition 204 childless adult
program has not allowed new participants since July
and this population has declined (86,185) since July to
138,307. Of the decline, (10,757) is attributed to
members who were transferred to the SSI program. As a
whole, the Proposition 204 program has declined (2.8)%
compared to the prior month, and (21.5)% from the prior
year.
There were 39,454 TANF recipients in the state in
February, a monthly caseload decrease of (0.7)% Yearover-year, the number of TANF recipients has declined

by (6.8)%. This decline is the result of changes to the
statutory lifetime limit a person may receive cash
assistance. The FY 2011 budget reduced the lifetime limit
to 36 months. The FY 2012 budget further reduces this
limit to 24 months. Previously, the maximum had been 60
months. The FY 2012 budget assumed caseloads of
approximately 36,000 in FY 2012.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP),
formerly known as Food Stamps, provides assistance to
low-income households to purchase food. In February,
there were a total 1.1 million food stamp recipients in
the state, a (1.2)% decrease over the prior month.
Compared to the same month last year, food stamp
participation was up by 8.5%. The number of food stamp
recipients began increasing steadily in July 2007, after
several years in the 550,000 to 575,000 range.
The 3-month average count of the Department of
Correction’s (ADC) inmate population decreased to
39,901 inmates between December 2011 and February
2012. Relative to the prior 3-month period, the population
has decreased by (64) inmates. Compared to a year
ago, the population has declined by (162) inmates.

6 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2012

Economic Indicators

(Continued)

Table 5

ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Indicator
Arizona
- Unemployment Rate (SA)
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Unemployment Insurance Claimants
- Non-Farm Employment - Total
Manufacturing
Construction
- Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing
- Contracting Tax Receipts (3-month average)
- Retail Sales Tax Receipts (3-month average)
- Residential Building Permits (3-month moving average)
Single-family
Multi-unit
- Greater Phoenix Home Sales
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Greater Phoenix Median Home Price
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Greater Phoenix S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
(Jan. 2000 = 100)
- Foreclosure Activity, Maricopa County
Pending Foreclosures (Active Notices)
- Greater Phoenix Total Housing Inventory, (ARMLS)
- Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers
- Arizona Average Natural Gas Price
($ per thousand cubic feet)
- Arizona Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Arizona Coincident Index (July 1992 = 100)
- Arizona Leading Index -- 6 month projected growth rate
- Arizona Personal Income
- Arizona Population
- AHCCCS Recipients
Acute Care Traditional
Spend Down
Prop 204 Childless Adults
Other Prop 204
Kids Care
Long-Term Care – Elderly & DD
Emergency Services
- TANF Recipients
- SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients
- ADC Inmate Growth (3-month average)
- Probation Caseload (Adult/Juvenile)
Non-Maricopa
Maricopa County
United States
- Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2005 dollars, SAAR)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Leading Indicators Index (2004 = 100)
- U.S. Semiconductor Billings (3-month moving average)
- Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100)
*Adjusted for 1¢ sales tax

Time Period

Current Value

Change From
Prior Period

Change From
Prior Year

January
January
January
January
January
January
January
Dec-Feb
Dec-Feb

8.7%
26,870
56,418
2.41 million
149,400
112,000
40.3
$33.2 million
$158.9 million

(0.3)%
25.7%
2.3%
(1.4)%
(0.1)%
(0.1)%
(3.6)%
(3.6)%
0.6%

(1.2)%
(7.7)%
(18.4)%
1.6%
0.7%
5.1%
0.0%
7.4%*
4.5%*

Nov-Jan
Nov-Jan

815
314

4.5%
19.8%

34.2%
114.8%

January
January

7,926
1,219

(0.2)%
2.4%

(4.8)%
(7.7)%

January
January
December

$120,500
$70,000
101.91

(3.6)%
(10.6)%
0.8%

(8.5)%
(17.6)%
(1.2)%

February
February
January
December

17,833
23,736
3.20 million
$5.01

(2.5)%
(5.2)%
(5.0)%
(8.6)%

(54.5)%
(41.6)%
(1.5)%
(24.5)%

1st Quarter 2012
December
Oct-Dec
3rd Quarter 2011
July 1, 2011
March

February
February
Dec-Feb

69.5
178.48
1.6%
$232.2 billion
6.48 million
1,303,625
890,414
138,307
153,653
11,647
52,028
57,576
39,454
1,137,136
39,901

20.9%
0.0%
(0.6)%
0.2%
N/A
(1.0)%
(0.6)%
(100.0)%
(4.9)%
(0.8)%
(4.1)%
0.5%
1.5%
(0.7)%
(1.2)%
(64) inmates

10.7%
1.7%
(0.3)%
4.3%
1.1%
(2.6)%
5.3%
(100.0)%
(37.5)%
2.1%
(44.7)%
2.2%
31.2%
(6.8)%
8.5%
(162) inmates

January
January

18,417
25,630

(213)
(7)

(1,110)
(482)

4th Quarter 2011
(2nd Estimate)
February
January
Oct-Dec
January

$13.4 trillion

3.0%

1.7%

70.8
94.9
$4.36 billion
227.51

15.1%
0.6%
(4.9)%
0.2%

(1.7)%
(4.6)%
2.9%

7 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2012

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
AHCCCS, DES, & DHS – Report on Preliminary Actuarial
Estimates for FY 2013 Capitation Rate Changes – Pursuant
to FY 2012 General Appropriation Act footnotes,
AHCCCS has submitted a report on preliminary Medicaid
capitation rate increases for contract year (CY) 2013.
Their submission includes information for AHCCCS, the
Department of Economic Security (DES), and the
Department of Health Services (DHS).
In their report, AHCCCS provided information on
components of potential CY 2013 capitation rate
increases:
•
•

•

AHCCCS estimates that utilization increases will
increase capitation rates by an average of 2% in CY
2013 across the 3 agencies.
Any increases in provider rates will lead to an increase
in capitation rates. The Executive budget includes a
recommended 3% provider rate increase for certain
provider types. Statute requires that inpatient hospital
tiered per diem rates and the hospital outpatient fee
schedule are adjusted annually for inflation.
The federal government requires that primary care
physicians be reimbursed at 100% of the Medicare
rates in 2013 and 2014. AHCCCS estimates this will
cost a total of $150 million to $200 million on an
annualized basis. AHCCCS did not provide a General
Fund cost. However, the Executive budget estimates
this will result in a $6.3 million General Fund cost in FY
2013 if the federal Affordable Care act is not ruled
unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, with most of
the cost of this policy assumed to be borne by the
federal government. (Amy Upston)

Department of Economic Security (DES) - Semi-Annual
Report on CPS - Pursuant to A.R.S. § 8-818, DES has
submitted its semi-annual financial and program
accountability report. According to the report, out-ofhome placements increased from 11,082 in June to
11,502 in December. Caseloads are above the
department’s goals and turnover for Child Protective
Services (CPS) case managers was approximately 26.3%.
Employee satisfaction is stable at a 3.6 rating out of 5.0.
The highlights of this report, covering the first 6 months of
FY 2012, are summarized below.
• The CPS Training Academy had 164 new case
managers in training as of December 2011.
• As of December 2011, the number of filled positions
was 855 of 1,043 authorized and funded positions,
excluding those in training. This figure is 29 higher than
last April. Considering only filled positions, caseloads
per worker remain considerably higher than caseload
goals, with investigations at 15 (goal: 10), in-home at 32
(goal: 19), and out-of-home at 27 (goal: 16).
• DES reports that annualized case manager turnover
during June - December 2011 was 26.3%, up from a

23.4% annualized rate in the last report.
• The percent of CPS dependency cases denied or
dismissed in the last 6 months remained at the same
level (0.0%) as the previous 6 months, while the percent
of Office of Administrative Hearing’s decisions affirming
CPS case findings increased from 88.0% to 89.0%. The
percent of complaints validated by the Ombudsman
decreased from 2.9% to 2.1% (5 of 242 complaints).
• The number of children in out-of-home family
placements increased from 9,118 in June to 9,262 in
December, while the number of congregate care
placements increased from 1,438 to 1,592. DES also
reports that from June to December the number of
children aged 0-3 in shelter care decreased from 24 to
20, the number of children aged 0-6 in group homes
increased from 14 to 27, and the number of children in
shelter care for more than 21 days increased from 433
to 747. The December numbers are labeled as
preliminary. (Ben Beutler)
Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) - New FullTime Equivalent Positions from Proposed Rules - A.R.S. §
41-1055 requires that agencies notify the Joint Legislative
Budget Committee on the number of full-time
employees (FTE) necessary to implement and enforce a
rule before the rule is approved by the Governor’s
Regulatory Review Council. In accordance with this
requirement, ADOT has submitted notification that
proposed rulemaking for Highway Traffic Control Devices
will require 2 new FTE Positions.
ADOT has authority in A.R.S. § 28-7311 to establish a logo
sign program along rural, interstate, and urban highway
exits. Beginning July 1, 2012, the department will cease
its practice of administering the program through a
contractor and administer the program itself. ADOT
anticipates this change will generate about $2.3 million
minus the maintenance, employee, and program
administrative costs of $443,000 for the State Highway
Fund.
The Arizona Department of Administration has approved
ADOT’s proposal to hire 2 new FTE Positions to assist with
the production and accounting activities necessary to
implement and administer the logo sign program at a
cost of about $143,000 annually. (Ben Beutler)

8 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2012

February Spending
February 2012 General Fund spending was $384.8 million.

•

FY 2012 Spending
February 2012 spending of $384.8 million was $(20.1)
million less than February 2011 (See Table 6).
•

In February, Universities spending was $(15.6) million
less than the prior year. The universities received a
$198 million lump sum reduction in FY 2012, which will
be spread out throughout the fiscal year.

•

Department of Health Services spending decreased
by $(29.6) million from the previous year to $10.0
million. This decline was primarily due to changes in
the timing of a transfer for the Medicaid state match
for the Behavioral Health program.
The Department of Education spent $117.6 million, or
$54.7 million more than the previous year due to the
timing of formula payments.

Table 6
General Fund Spending ($ in Millions)

February 12
Agency
AHCCCS
Corrections
Economic Security
Education
Health Services
Public Safety
School Facilitie Board
Universities
Leaseback Debt Service
Other
Total

115.4
66.8
7.2
117.6
10.0
1.5
0.1
42.5
0.0
23.7
384.8

Change
from
February 11
(8.7)
9.7
0.1
54.7
(29.6)
0.1
(33.6)
(15.6)
0.0
2.8
(20.1)

Year to
Date

YTD
Change
from FY 11

1,063.6
610.0
490.9
2,598.0
453.0
38.5
163.6
555.5
49.1
339.4
6,361.6

49.3
18.0
27.7
13.6
72.9
5.1
96.6
(108.9)
3.0
(90.0)
87.3

9 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2012
Table 8

Agency
Department of Administration
Department of Admin Sale/Leaseback D/S
Office of Administrative Hearings
Department of Agriculture
AHCCCS
Attorney General
AZ Capital Post Conviction Public
Defender
State Board of Charter Schools
Department of Commerce/AZ Commerce
Authority
Community Colleges
Corporation Commission
Department of Corrections
AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind
Department of Economic Security
Department of Education
DEMA
Department. of Environmental Quality
DEQ – WQARF
Office of Equal Opportunity
State Board of Equalization
Board of Executive Clemency
Department of Financial Institutions
Department of Fire, Life, Bldg Safety
Office of the State Forester
Arizona Geological Survey
Government Information Tech.
Governor
Gov. - OSPB
Department of Health Services
Arizona Historical Society
Prescott Historical Society of AZ
Independent Redistricting Comm.
Commission on Indian Affairs
Department of Insurance
Judiciary
Supreme Court
Superior Court
Court of Appeals
Department of Juvenile Corrections
State Land Department
Law Enforcement Merit System
Legislature
Auditor General
House of Representatives

General Fund Spending
($ in Thousands)
Change from
February 12
February 11
610.4
(457.3)
62.8
19.4
161.9
(296.8)
115,371.2
(8,698.2)
1,148.4
1,042.2
54.4
2.1
50.8
2,625.0
36.5
66,784.2
1,520.7
7,228.3
117,575.3
428.8
11.9
20.1
51.3
174.2
113.6
187.3
50.8
508.6
142.0
10,030.6
190.2
47.2
481.2
3.4
343.4
753.0
1,452.1
995.8
3,085.7
21.4
4.8
1,329.6
1,002.0

11.9
2,517.9
(64.2)
9,730.4
1,176.6
105.1
54,687.1
(7.0)
3.0
2.3
8.0
19.0
(7.9)
(8.4)
(45.8)
(34.2)
258.3
(2.0)
(29,590.6)
10.7
(116.1)
481.2
(10.3)
41.1
430.1
72.7
107.5
(69.7)
(121.8)
0.2
189.8
201.4

Year-to-Date
11,309.2
49,050.7
556.4
5,000.9
1,063,627.0
11,350.1
409.7
493.8
21,000.0
51,433.0
354.3
610,031.7
14,265.9
490,853.9
2,598,014.0
4,533.4
7,000.0
116.5
409.1
541.5
1,806.2
1,240.6
3,412.9
590.9
(3.1)
3,081.1
1,251.3
452,988.1
2,225.3
476.2
3,042.1
31.3
3,510.3
9,667.5
47,365.6
9,190.5
31,679.7
722.0
37.8
11,705.0
8,081.1

YTD Change from
FY 11
(3,214.9)
(3,016.2)
(107.5)
(937.9)
49,296.1
(436.9)
(66.7)
(31.7)
18,186.6
(47,886.8)
(82.4)
17,981.9
(768.5)
27,720.4
13,630.3
(3,214.6)
(0.6)
(12.8)
(41.2)
(78.2)
(144.0)
(283.0)
1,455.7
91.2
(345.3)
(1,700.4)
(89.4)
72,874.1
(2,376.1)
(63.3)
3,042.1
(13.7)
(551.7)
(5,668.5)
(72.3)
(1,529.1)
(6,548.7)
(1,619.3)
(13.2)
(572.2)
(367.1)

10 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MARCH 2012

Agency
Joint Legislative Budget Comm.
Legislative Council
Senate
Board of Medical Student Loans
Mine Inspector
Department of Mines & Mineral Resources
Nav. Streams & Adjudication
OSHA
Arizona State Parks Board
Pioneers’ Home
Comm. for Postsecondary Ed.
Department of Public Safety
Arizona Department of Racing
Radiation Regulatory Agency
Arizona Rangers Pension
Real Estate Department
Department of Revenue
School Facilities Board
Secretary of State
Tax Appeals Board
Department of Transportation
State Treasurer
Universities
Board of Regents
Arizona State University
Northern Arizona University
University of Arizona
Department of Veteran Services
Department of Water Resources
Department of Weights & Measures
Other
Grand Total

Change from
February 11

Year-to-Date

174.4
322.3
707.9
71.3
6.8
60.9
1,514.8
33.3
44.0
162.5
2,391.3
65.4
679.8
16.1
7.5
133.6

26.7
(4.7)
95.9
13.5
(14.0)
1.9
(106.4)
(60.2)
(96.7)
35.0
22.5
(939.4)
(33,571.0)
107.9
(0.7)
(3.9)
73.1

1,329.3
3,588.9
5,567.8
20.5
740.4
103.7
1,568.2
1,396.8
38,490.4
2,734.3
1,033.0
1,627.6
32,760.2
163,586.4
6,444.6
180.4
31.8
2,083.6

(160.7)
208.8
(410.1)
(323.3)
(58.3)
(807.1)
2.0
(20,000.0)
583.7
786.4
5,051.7
(697.0)
1.7
(8.3)
(426.2)
3,279.7
96,558.1
(4,864.1)
(4.0)
(4.7)
229.7

27.4
19,169.4
6,431.6
16,872.6
638.9
517.0
82.1
32.4
384,822.4

(2,272.0)
(6,196.8)
(2,120.3)
(5,262.5)
(1,542.9)
327.6
1.4
(235.6)
(20,133.4)

15,734.1
243,930.3
81,947.8
213,910.4
5,633.1
3,328.9
709.5
679.4
6,361,614.5

(19.7)
(49,819.6)
(16,961.2)
(42,098.9)
(3,597.0)
(1,457.7)
(62.7)
(31.3)
87,314.1

February 12

YTD Change from
FY 11