JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights 1716 W. Adams Phoenix, AZ 85007 Phone: (602) 926-5491 Fax: (602) 926-5416 Summary November continued the state’s trend of revenue growth this fiscal year as base General Fund collections (excluding one-time adjustments) were 4.2% above the prior year. General Fund revenues totaled $608.9 million. While prior months have shown significant growth in all 3 of the state’s largest tax categories, November’s results were more mixed. Sales tax collections grew a modest 1.2%, compared to Individual Income tax collections which declined for the first time in 15 months. www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm Year-to-date, FY 2012 General Fund revenues are $3.65 billion, or 8.2% above FY 2011 excluding one-time adjustments. November General Fund collections were $4.6 million above the enacted budget forecast. Year-to-date, revenues are $177.5 million above the enacted forecast. “Year-to-date, FY 2012 General Fund revenues are $3.65 billion, or 8.2% above FY 2011.” This report has been prepared for the Arizona Legislature by the Joint Legislative Budget Committee Staff on December 20, 2011. December 2011 In comparison to revenue of $608.9 million, November 2011 General Fund spending was $560.6 million. Fiscal year-to-date, General Fund revenues of $3.65 billion have been offset by $4.76 billion in spending. Final FY 2011 Ending Balance The General Accounting Office released its Annual Financial Report for FY 2011 on December 9. The report showed that the General Fund ending balance for FY 2011 was $3.2 million. The FY 2012 budget originally assumed FY 2011 would end with a shortfall of $(332) million. However, since that shortfall has been eliminated, FY 2012 revenues will no longer be needed to pay off the FY 2011 shortfall. The $332 million along with the balance from FY 2012 (currently $178 million) will constitute the overall balance at the end of the fiscal year. House Appropriations Subcommittee on MultiYear Budgeting At its November 29, 2011 meeting, the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Multi-Year Budgeting heard a JLBC Staff presentation on the state’s use of fund transfers in prior budget years and future year budget projections. When solving the budget shortfalls in FY 2008 FY 2012, fund transfers comprised $1.9 billion, or 14% of total budget solutions. House Appropriations Subcommittee on Debt At its December 8, 2011 meeting, the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Debt heard a presentation from the State Comptroller and a state financial advisor regarding technical details on the early repayment of the state’s operating financing. In addition, JLBC Staff presented information on the state’s outstanding non-General Fund debt. Joint Legislative Income Tax Credit Review Committee (JLITCRC) At its December 7, 2011 meeting, the JLITCRC heard JLBC Staff Presentations regarding 3 income tax credits which were being evaluated according to the criteria outlined in statute, such as: cost, complexity and effectiveness. Statute requires income tax credits to be reviewed according to a given schedule, which is typically every 5 years. The Committee recommended the continuation of the “Angel” Investment Credit and the Corporate Private School Tuition Credit. In addition, the Committee recommended the elimination of the Residential Solar Energy Device Credit. Table of Contents Summary • Final FY 2011 Ending Balance............................1 • House Subcomm. on Multi-Year Budgeting ...1 • House Subcomm. on Debt ................................1 • Income Tax Credit Review Committee...........1 November Revenues..............................................2 Economic Indicators ..............................................4 Summary of Recent Agency Reports • ADOA – Working Capital Surplus......................7 ACJC – Criminal Justice Enhancement Fund 7 ADE – K-12 Aggregate Expenditure Limit ....... 7 Mine Inspector – Abandoned Mines Safety .. 7 ABOR – Loan Forgiveness Program ................. 7 ABOR – University System’s Financial Aid ....... 7 ABOR/Comm Colleges – Articulation ............. 8 November Spending.............................................. 8 • • • • • • 2 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2011 November Revenues Table 1 General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions) November Year-to-Date “Year-to-date, [Individual Income Tax] revenues have grown 9.7% and are $85.6 million above forecast through November.” FY 2012 Collections $ 608.9 $ 3,652.9 Sales Tax collections were $357.3 million, or 1.2% above November 2010 and $(4.9) million below forecast. Excluding the $71.0 million from the temporary 1-cent increase, collections were $286.3 million, or (0.1)% below November 2010. The temporary 1-cent tax continues to grow more than the base tax because of certain exemptions for purchases under contract prior to the effective date of the tax. Year-to-date, base sales tax collections are 5.6% above the prior year and are $42.1 million above forecast. Table 2 displays the November growth rates for the largest categories. Table 2 Sales Tax Growth Rates Compared to Prior Year Retail Contracting Utilities Use Restaurant & Bar November 7.2% (5.2)% (10.2)% (22.5)% 4.9% YTD 7.9% 11.6% (0.1)% 0.8% 7.5% Retail and contracting together account for about 60% of all sales tax revenues. Retail continues to post significant gains over the previous year. Contracting’s decline this month is the first since December 2010. Individual Income Tax net revenues were $256.5 million in November, or (3.6)% below the prior year. Collections were $(16.5) million below forecast. Year-to-date, revenues have grown 9.7% and are $85.6 million above forecast through November. As indicated in Table 3, withholding declined by (2.5)% in November for a year-to-date increase of 4.1%. This month’s decrease may be due to a timing issue. While this November had the same number of processing days as the previous year, it had 1 less Monday. Mondays represent 40% of withholding collections. While the table shows large Difference From Forecast $ 4.6 $ 177.5 Difference From FY 2011 $ 31.9 $ 406.6 increases in both Payments and Refunds, collections for November in these categories are small on a total dollar basis. Table 3 Individual Income Tax Growth Rates Compared to Prior Year Withholding Estimated + Final Payments Refunds November (2.5)% 30.5% 43.1% YTD 4.1% 20.8% (24.9)% Corporate Income Tax net collections were $(5.8) million in November, which is $31.3 million above the prior year. The negative monthly collection amount is due to refunds exceeding payments. Collections were $22.1 million above the forecast. Year-to-date, collections have grown 35.2% and are $53.3 million above forecast. Tax Amnesty – Pursuant to Laws 2011, Chapter 28, the Department of Revenue operated a Tax Recovery program between September 1 and October 1. During that period, taxpayers who owed money to DOR could avoid some penalties by voluntarily reporting and paying the back taxes. In total, $12.9 million was collected from the program, which was $(9.1) million less than budgeted. Previously, these recovery collections were reported with the regular collections for each category. Table 4 shows the collections by category. Year-to-date collections for each category have been adjusted to reflect the additional information. Table 4 Tax Recovery Collections by Category Sales Tax Individual Income Tax Corporate Income Tax Total $ in M $ 2.8 6.1 4.0 $12.9 3 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2011 November Revenues (Continued) The Lottery Commission reports that November ticket sales were $50.7 million, which is $4.6 million, or 10.0%, above sales in the prior year. Year-to-date ticket sales are $238.2 million, which is 10.5% above last year’s sales. AHCCCS and the Department of Health Services to defray the General Fund cost of operating those programs, along with funding the Early Childhood Development and Health Board. Non-General Fund Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) revenues consist of gasoline and use fuel (diesel) tax, motor carrier fees (commercial carriers), vehicle license tax and registration fees, and various other fees. HURF collections of $94.6 million in November were down $(1.5) million, or (1.6)%, compared to November of last year. Year-to-date revenues are down (0.1)%. Tobacco Tax revenues were $24.6 million in November. Collections were down (14.9)% compared to the prior year. Year-to-date collections are down (1.2)%, and are $(0.4) million below forecast. Less than 10% of tobacco taxes are deposited directly into the General Fund. The remainder primarily goes to Table 5 General Fund Revenue: Change from Previous Year and Enacted April Budget Forecast November 2011 Current Month FY 2012 YTD (Five Months) Change From Actual November 2010 November 2011 Amount Change from Actual Forecast Percent Amount Percent November 2010 November 2011 Amount Forecast Percent Amount Percent Taxes Sales and Use - Base* - 1¢ Increase* Income - Individual - Corporate $286,297,169 ($188,440) $70,971,858 4,318,705 6.5 1,153,609 1.7 256,509,482 (9,683,886) (3.6) (16,529,199) 22,057,231 (5,833,080) Property 3,328,071 Luxury - Tobacco 4,762,522 - Liquor Insurance Premium Estate Other Taxes Sub-Total Taxes 1,906,700 310,272 31,345,040 (422,687) 2,222,032 (409,032) 938,331 0 0 38,089 14,107 $618,291,083 $28,134,170 (0.1) % -(11.3) 87.5 (17.7) --58.8 4.8 % ($6,083,302) (588,068) 2,208,551 (2.1) % $1,489,406,151 $79,100,107 367,342,555 39,434,829 12.0 5.6 % $42,122,324 20,453,952 2.9 % 5.9 (6.1) 1,373,581,421 121,644,232 9.7 85,588,696 6.6 (79.1) 192,249,650 50,027,565 35.2 53,310,172 38.4 (15.0) 5,853,278 (37,338) (0.6) (331,769) (5.4) 86.5 6,006,883 (2,034,406) (25.3) (2,077,077) (25.7) (462,215) (19.5) 10,530,787 2,294,326 27.9 2,105,169 25.0 254,137 452.7 123,551,406 (12,483,258) (9.2) (14,672,850) (10.6) 220,825 (216,547) (49.5) 220,825 227,304 (16,245) (6.7) 16,434 0 11,577 $2,022,321 -43.7 0.3 % $3,568,970,260 $277,713,265 1,177,740 8.4 % $186,735,876 -7.8 5.5 % Other Revenue Lottery 4,184,940 (381,215) (8.3) (22.7) 18,700,160 License, Fees and Permits 1,946,843 49,197 2.6 39,579 2.1 11,098,914 (145,979) (1.3) 8,571 (270,682) (96.9) (491,429) (98.3) 31,751 (1,924,503) (98.4) (2,468,249) (98.7) Sales and Services 1,175,024 (1,375,634) (53.9) (385,728) (24.7) 6,606,557 (2,111,911) (24.2) (1,754,572) (21.0) Other Miscellaneous 1,663,383 (689,111) (29.3) 767,173 85.6 15,125,472 2,381,477 18.7 7,210,205 91.1 -- 0 0 0 (0.3) 3,854,856 70.8 (12.8) % 2,558,333 16.3 % 63,008,642 4.2 % $4,580,654 0.7 % $3,631,978,902 Interest Disproportionate Share Transfers and Reimbursements Sub-Total Other Revenue TOTAL BASE REVENUE 0 9,299,285 18,278,046 $636,569,129 0 (26,567) (2,694,012) $25,440,158 (1,226,118) -- 11,445,788 (1,921,265) (2,544,441) $275,168,824 6.7 -(14.4) (3.9) % 8.2 % (1,390,905) 395,279 (6.9) 3.7 0 (2,083,486) (91,728) $186,644,148 -(15.4) (0.1) % 5.4 % Other Adjustments Urban Revenue Sharing Budget Plan Transfers Tax Recovery Program Sub-Total Other Adjustments TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE (35,368,620) 4,131,923 7,740,237 2,335,029 0 (27,628,383) $608,940,746 0 -43.2 0 0.0 (176,843,100) 20,659,615 0 0.0 184,939,221 97,866,214 -112.4 0 0.0 0 0.0 -- 0 -- 12,867,428 12,867,428 -- (9,132,572) (41.5) 6,466,952 -- % 0 0.0 % 20,963,549 131,393,257 -- % (9,132,572) (30.3) % $31,907,110 5.5 % $4,580,654 0.8 % $3,652,942,451 $406,562,081 12.5 % $177,511,576 5.1 % Non-General Funds Highway User Revenue Fund $94,612,091 ($1,536,084) (1.6) % ($2,978,306) (3.1) % $490,013,429 ($432,859) (0.1) % ($7,789,553) (1.6) % Tobacco Tax (All Funds Total) $24,622,431 ($4,323,181) (14.9) % ($3,548,803) (12.6) % $135,504,312 ($1,711,222) (1.2) % ($371,885) (0.3) % __________ * Total November collections including the temporary 1¢ increase approved by the voters in May 2010 were $357.3 million. This amount is $4.1 million, or 1.2%, above November 2010 and $(4.9) million, or (1.4)%, below forecast. Year-to-date, total collections including the 1¢ increase were $1,856.7 million. This amount is $118.5 million, or 6.8%, above November 2010 and $62.6 million above forecast. 4 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2011 Economic Indicators NATIONAL “American consumers are beginning to move out of recession mode. It will likely take considerable time, however, before consumer confidence returns to prerecession levels since Americans still face many hurdles, especially related to housing and loss of household wealth.” The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence Index surged by 15.1 points in November, to a reading of 56.0, the highest level since July. The month-over-month percentage increase of 36.9% was the largest such gain since April 2009. Consumer optimism appears to be on the rise as job prospects are slowly improving. With the unemployment rate falling for 3 consecutive months, real disposable income increasing, and gasoline prices retreating, American consumers are beginning to move out of recession mode. It will likely take considerable time, however, before consumer confidence returns to prerecession levels since Americans still face many hurdles, especially related to housing and loss of household wealth. Consumer prices, as measured by the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), was unchanged in November, following prior month’s (0.1)% decline. Compared to the same month in the prior year, consumer prices were up by 3.4%. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, increased by 0.2% in November. Year-over-year, core inflation is up by 2.2%. The latest CPI reading suggests that inflation pressures are easing. This is primarily due to a smaller increase in food prices in recent months coupled with a slight decline in energy prices. ARIZONA The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s coincident index gauges current economic activity in each state. The index combines 4 indicators: employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, unemployment rate, and inflation-adjusted wages. Most states nationwide saw an increase in their coincident index in October, with Arizona posting moderate growth compared to other states. In October, Arizona’s coincident index increased by 0.3% compared to the prior year. Year over year, the Arizona index is 2.3% above last year, the largest gain since May 2007. While this is a significant improvement, Arizona’s index is still (12.5)% below its peak, which occurred in August 2007. See Tracking Arizona’s Recovery for additional historical information. Housing In November, the number of new Maricopa County foreclosure notices decreased (4.9)% from October levels to 4,140. The number of Maricopa County pending foreclosures decreased from 22,901 in October to 20,962 in November. The October total is (59.3)% below the peak in December 2009 (51,466). See Tracking Arizona’s Recovery for additional historical information. While the decline in the number of pending foreclosures is a positive development in the Maricopa County real estate market, the region continues to see declining home prices. In the Phoenix Metropolitan area in November, there were a total of 7,105 existing single-family home sales that resulted in a median resale home price of $126,000. Compared to the prior year, the number of sales have increased 3.8%, while prices are (6.7)% lower. Of the existing sales in the area, a significant portion (29.2%) were foreclosures. This is an improvement from the worst of the recession, where over half of existing home sales were foreclosures. The decline is partially due to lenders agreeing to short sales rather than foreclosing properties. The exchanging of these 2 transaction types has a minimal impact on the real estate market, as evidence suggests the housing market is still weighed down by a large volume of distressed sales. Another measure of the health of the Arizona real estate market is permitting activity. It appears that single-family housing permits will decline for the sixth consecutive year in 2011. Through October, a total of 9,086 singlefamily building permits had been issued statewide, a (7.0)% decrease from last year. While the single-family sector appears to still be struggling, the multi-family housing sector seems to be more healthy, in part due to declining apartment vacancy rates. As of October, multi-family building permits for a total of 2,116 units had been issued in the state, a 62% increase from the prior year. While this growth is significant, multi-family permitting activity still remains approximately 80% below the peak of activity in June 2006. 5 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2011 Economic Indicators (Continued) Employment According to the Employment and Population Statistics Unit (EPSU) of the Arizona Department of Administration, the state added 10,200 nonfarm jobs in November over October. This was a month-over-month gain of 0.4%, or (0.2)% below the average growth rate for November over the prior 10 years. The retail sector led job gains in November with 12,800 additional employees on their payrolls. These are mostly seasonal jobs related to holiday shopping. The construction sector was the biggest loser in November with the shedding of (6,200) jobs. While construction employment typically declines in November, this year’s job loss was more than 3 times the average decline in the last 10 years. It also marked the first month-over-month job loss since February. The reason for the unusually large construction employment decline last month is not clear at this point. The state’s employers had 45,800, or 1.9%, more individuals on the payrolls in November than 1 year ago. November was the 11th consecutive month with yearover-year gains in employment. The average nonfarm employment gain for the first 11 months of 2011 was 0.9%, or 22,200 jobs. See Tracking Arizona’s Recovery for additional historical information. At 8.7%, the state’s unemployment rate in November fell below 9.0% for the first time since February 2009. This improvement is in line with the national unemployment rate, which has also declined in each of the last 3 months. Arizona’s jobless rate is now (0.9) percentage points below last year. While November’s release of unemployment data suggests that the Arizona economy is slowly mending, analysts at EPSU also cautioned that the jobless rate could fluctuate up and down over the coming months as previously discouraged workers resume their job search. State Agency Data In December, total AHCCCS caseloads equaled 1.34 million members, a (1.3)% decrease over the prior month. Overall AHCCCS caseloads are currently (0.9)% below December 2010 levels. The traditional AHCCCS population, which consists primarily of lower-income children and their parents, was down (0.4)% from November but up 5.5% from a year ago. The total population in this program is almost 900,000. This growth has been offset by declines in other populations. The Proposition 204 childless adult program has not allowed new participants since July and this population has declined (53,328) since July 1 to 164,390. Of the decline, (10,202) is attributed to members who were transferred to the SSI program. The Proposition 204 program has declined (7.4)% compared to the prior month, and (26.1)% from the prior year. There were 38,313 TANF recipients in the state in November, a monthly caseload increase of 0.4%. Year over-year, the number of TANF recipients has declined by (14.8)%. This decline is the result of changes to the statutory lifetime limit a person may receive cash assistance. The FY 2011 budget reduced the lifetime limit to 36 months. The FY 2012 budget further reduces this limit to 24 months. Previously, the maximum had been 60 months. The FY 2012 budget assumed caseloads of approximately 36,000 in FY 2012. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as Food Stamps, provides assistance to low-income households to purchase food. In November, there were a total 1.1 million food stamp recipients in the state, a (0.1)% decrease over the prior month. Compared to the same month last year, food stamp participation was up by 8.2%. The number of food stamp recipients began increasing steadily in July 2007, after several years in the 550,000 to 575,000 range. The 3-month average count of the Department of Correction’s (ADC) inmate population decreased to 40,057 inmates between September and November 2011. Relative to the prior 3-month period, the population has decreased by (30) inmates. Compared to a year ago the population has declined by (248) inmates. 6 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2011 Economic Indicators (Continued) Table 6 ECONOMIC INDICATORS Indicator Arizona - Unemployment Rate (SA) - Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims - Unemployment Insurance Claimants - Non-Farm Employment - Total Manufacturing Construction - Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing - Contracting Tax Receipts (3-month average) - Retail Sales Tax Receipts (3-month average) - Residential Building Permits (3-month moving average) Single-family Multi-unit - Greater Phoenix Existing Home Sales Single-Family Townhouse/Condominium - Greater Phoenix Median Resale Home Price Single-Family Townhouse/Condominium - Greater Phoenix S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jan. 2000 = 100) - Foreclosure Activity, Maricopa County Foreclosure Notices (Notice of Trustee’s Sales Recorded) Pending Foreclosures (Active Notices) - Greater Phoenix Total Housing Inventory, (ARMLS) - Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers - Arizona Average Natural Gas Price ($ per thousand cubic feet) - Arizona Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100) - Arizona Coincident Index (July 1992 = 100) - Arizona Personal Income - Arizona Population - AHCCCS Recipients Acute Care Traditional Spend Down Prop 204 Childless Adults Other Prop 204 Kids Care Long-Term Care – Elderly & DD Emergency Services - TANF Recipients - SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients - ADC Inmate Growth (3-month average) - Probation Caseload (Adult/Juvenile) Non-Maricopa Maricopa County United States - Gross Domestic Product (Chained 2005 dollars, SAAR) - Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100) - Leading Indicators Index (2004 = 100) - U.S. Semiconductor Billings (3-month moving average) - Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100) *Adjusted for 1¢ sales tax Time Period Current Value Change From Prior Period Change From Prior Year November October October November November November October Sept-Nov Sept-Nov 8.7% 25,249 63,965 2.45 million 152,400 112,500 40.5 $36.5 million $137.9 million (0.3)% 17.3% (1.2)% 0.4% (0.3)% (5.2)% (0.7)% 0.3% 0.8% (0.9)% (4.3)% (12.7)% 1.9% 3.4% 0.5% 0.5% 10.0%* 8.0%* Aug-Oct Aug-Oct 938 409 (3.0)% (37.5)% 18.4% 56.4% November November 7,215 1,075 (1.5)% 4.9% 3.8% 4.9% November November September $126,000 $80,825 100.22 0.9% 4.6% (0.2)% (6.7)% (0.2)% (6.5)% November November November October September 4,140 20,962 26,798 3.33 million $5.41 (4.9)% (8.5)% (1.7)% 8.5% (17.7)% (29.7)% (49.8)% (40.9)% 2.3% (4.9)% 4th Quarter 2011 October 2nd Quarter 2011 April 1, 2010 December November November Sept-Nov 57.5 179.27 $232.8 billion 6.39 million 1,336,141 895,209 8 164,390 156,762 13,536 51,741 54,495 38,313 1,153,368 40,057 6.5% 0.3% 1.2% N/A (1.3)% (0.4)% (87.7)% (7.4)% (0.4)% (4.9)% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% (0.1)% (30) inmates 2.1% 2.3% 5.5% N/A (0.9)% 5.5% (99.9)% (26.1)% 3.3% (43.6)% 2.2% 21.5% (14.8)% 8.2% (248) inmates October/Sept. October/sept. 18,797 25,849 (108) (108) (822) (623) 3rd Quarter 2011 (2nd Estimate) November October Aug-Oct November $13.3 trillion 2.0% 1.5% 56.0 117.4 $4.67 billion 226.72 36.9% 0.9% 1.3% 0.0% (3.1)% 6.6% (2.5)% 3.4% 7 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2011 Summary of Recent Agency Reports Arizona Department of Administration – Report on Working Capital Surplus – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 41-707, the Arizona Department of Administration (ADOA) reported on the FY 2011 working capital surplus requirements for tax-exempt deficit financing entered into by the state after January 1, 2009. Since this date, the state has entered into 3 deficit financing agreements: 2 transactions involving the sale/leaseback of state properties totaling $1.0 billion and lottery revenue bonds totaling $450 million. Because the state used tax-exempt debt financing to eliminate a budget shortfall, the federal government essentially requires the state to purchase tax-exempt securities if the year-end General Fund balance (or “working capital”) exceeds 5% through FY 2014. After FY 2014, the state would be required to repay the sale/leaseback issuance. Working capital is defined as the fiscal year ending balance in the following funds: the state General Fund, the Budget Stabilization Fund, and any Department of Revenue clearing accounts. For each of the 3 tax-exempt financing agreements entered into since January 1, 2009, ADOA found that no working capital surplus existed for FY 2011. This means the state will not currently be required to begin purchasing tax-exempt securities. (Jack Brown) Arizona Criminal Justice Commission – Report on Criminal Justice Enhancement Fund – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 412401C, the Arizona Criminal Justice Commission has provided its annual report on Criminal Justice Enhancement Fund (CJEF) monies distributed to law enforcement agencies. CJEF consists of a 47% assessment on certain fines, penalties, and forfeitures imposed and collected by the courts. In FY 2011, CJEF revenues totaled $43.7 million and the total funds available for the fiscal year, including the beginning balance and adjustments, was $63.3 million. In FY 2011, CJEF revenues decreased by (4.6)% from FY 2010; CJEF expenditures totaled $36.8 million and fund transfers totaled $4.6 million. (James Alcantar) Arizona Department of Education – Report on K-12 Aggregate Expenditure Limit – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15911B, the State Board of Education reported on October 27, 2011 that currently budgeted expenditures for all school districts collectively statewide for FY 2012 are $(1.5) billion below the Constitution’s aggregate expenditure limitation (AEL). For FY 2011 the difference was $(637.0) million. The change is largely due to the erroneous inclusion of charter school enrollment in calculation of the AEL limit (which is compared with district-only expenditures). Without that error the difference would be approximately $(872.8) million. The AEL limits growth in statewide K-12 expenditures to the combined rate of growth for enrollment and inflation, with certain exceptions. (Steve Schimpp) State Mine Inspector – Report on Abandoned Mines Safety Fund Expenditures and Contributions – The State Mine Inspector is required by A.R.S. § 27-131 to establish a program to address public safety hazards at abandoned mines. A.R.S. § 27-131 created the Abandoned Mines Safety Fund (AMSF) to fund the program. The Mine Inspector must submit an annual report to JLBC on or before December 1 detailing the contributions to the AMSF, and the expenditures by the fund during the preceding fiscal year. For FY 2011, the State Mine Inspector has recently reported that the AMSF had no new revenue. The State Mine Inspector secured 59 mine sites during FY 2011, at a total cost of $43,000. The Mine Inspector has completed preliminary planning for an additional 26 mine sites in FY 2012, with an estimated cost of $23,900. The Mine Inspector financed these activities through the fund’s carry-forward balance. (Brett Searle) Arizona Board of Regents – Report on Loan Forgiveness Program – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-1782, the Arizona Board of Regents (ABOR) recently reported on the progress of the Mathematics, Science, and Special Education (MSSE) Teacher Loan Forgiveness Program. The program allows ABOR to grant up to 5-year loans to eligible in-state students who agree to a service commitment to teach in a public school. For the 2010-2011 academic year, there were 58 recipients. This total includes 35 loan renewals and 23 new recipients. Of the MSSE recipients, 19 are studying mathematics education, 6 are studying science education, and 33 are studying special education. As of July 2011, 76% of participating students had graduated and were either teaching or seeking employment. A total of $357,967 was dispersed to students under the loan forgiveness program in FY 2011. Effective July 1, 2011, the program was transferred to the Arizona Commission for Postsecondary Education by Laws 2010, Chapter 332. (Breanne Bushu) Arizona Board of Regents – Report on University System’s Financial Aid – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-1650, the Arizona Board of Regents is required to submit an annual report on financial aid. Highlights from the FY 2011 report include: • • Approximately $1.7 billion in total financial aid was provided to students. Of this amount, $863.1 million (49.8%) came from federal sources, $558.4 million (32.2%) came from 8 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2011 Summary of Recent Agency Reports state institutional sources, $310.7 million (17.9%) came from private sources, and $2.4 million (0.1%) came from state scholarships, grants and loans. (The private sources amount includes $16.2 million Arizona Financial Aid Trust, which is a combination of both state and institutional sources of aid.) • A total of 115,477 students received aid, including 91,715 undergraduate students and 23,762 graduate students. • Of the undergraduate students receiving aid, 20,808 received non-need-based gift aid, 52,949 received need-based gift aid, and 45,016 were awarded miscellaneous types of non-gift aid (i.e. work study). Some students received multiple types of aid. • The average aid package was $10,788, which includes both need and non-need-based aid. • 53.8% of undergraduate students and 56.7% of graduate students have debt. • Upon graduation, the average undergraduate student debt was $21,158, while the average graduate student debt was $44,918. (Leatta McLaughlin) (Continued) Arizona Board of Regents/Arizona Community Colleges – Report on Articulation – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-1824, the Arizona Board of Regents (ABOR) and the community colleges are required to submit an annual report by December 15 of their progress on both articulation and meeting statewide postsecondary education needs. This year’s progress in implementing the transfer model and support systems include: • 8,250 community college students completed the Arizona General Education Curriculum, which satisfies lower division general education requirements at the universities. This is a 23% increase over last year. However, the rate at which students transfer from community colleges to universities has remained relatively flat in recent years. • The Academic Program Articulation Steering Committee, which addresses curriculum and communication between K-12 and postsecondary education, held its first meetings in 2011. • As required by Laws 2010, 2nd Regular Session, Chapter 242, ABOR and the community colleges have developed a shared numbering system which will be fully implemented in January 2012. (Marge Zylla) November Spending November 2011 General Fund spending was $560.6 million. November expenditures were $8.7 million greater than the prior year. • In November, Universities spending was $(8.1) million less than the prior year. The universities received a $198 million lump sum reduction in FY 2012, which will be spread out throughout the fiscal year. FY 2012 Spending November 2011 spending of $560.6 million was $8.7 million more than November 2010 (See Table 7). Table 7 General Fund Spending ($ in Millions) November 11 Agency AHCCCS Corrections Economic Security Education Health Services Public Safety School Facilities Board Universities Leaseback Debt Service Other Total 119.8 85.9 7.0 251.7 11.9 2.2 0.2 48.4 0.0 33.5 560.6 Change from November 10 (1.6) 19.0 (1.2) 22.6 (35.4) 0.8 (0.1) (8.1) 0.0 12.7 8.7 Year to Date 689.9 399.7 427.4 1,937.5 421.7 32.7 132.9 422.7 49.1 36.6 4,757.1 YTD Change from FY 11 46.6 32.2 (4.5) 13.8 198.5 4.9 99.7 (68.3) 49.1 15.7 254.0 9 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2011 Table 8 General Fund Spending ($ in Thousands) Agency Department of Administration Department of Admin Sale/Leaseback D/S Office of Administrative Hearings Department of Agriculture AHCCCS Attorney General AZ Capital Post Conviction Public Defender State Board of Charter Schools Department of Commerce/AZ Commerce Authority Community Colleges Corporation Commission Department of Corrections AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind Department of Economic Security Department of Education DEMA Department. of Environmental Quality DEQ – WQARF Office of Equal Opportunity State Board of Equalization Board of Executive Clemency Department of Financial Institutions Department of Fire, Life, Bldg Safety Office of the State Forester Arizona Geological Survey Government Information Tech. Governor Gov. - OSPB Department of Health Services Arizona Historical Society Prescott Historical Society of AZ Independent Redistricting Comm. Commission on Indian Affairs Department of Insurance Judiciary Supreme Court Superior Court Court of Appeals Department of Juvenile Corrections State Land Department Law Enforcement Merit System Legislature Auditor General House of Representatives November 11 980.9 91.3 895.0 119,792.7 1,013.5 53.4 66.6 2,625.0 53.1 85,910.9 2,488.6 6,987.7 251,702.2 (38.1) 16.1 45.4 72.9 280.2 120.1 281.3 74.1 560.9 207.3 11,868.4 274.9 65.6 416.9 4.2 486.4 1,285.8 1,219.5 1,425.5 4,709.9 32.3 7.2 1,877.9 1,286.9 Change from November 10 (192.4) 49.5 448.9 (1,558.9) (120.0) 6.5 30.4 2,398.8 16.7 18,994.1 1,455.6 (1,243.3) 22,637.7 (697.5) 7.0 16.3 31.5 135.9 (3.4) 120.1 40.8 (25.6) 162.8 77.1 (35,437.3) 109.0 (2.4) 416.9 (5.9) 185.9 804.1 (38.0) 522.7 1,497.4 (384.5) 2.1 770.1 575.0 Year-to-Date 9,440.3 49,050.7 367.8 3,891.1 689,865.9 7,674.7 241.3 341.7 13,125.0 34,288.7 235.0 399,731.4 10,053.9 427,407.7 1,937,541.0 3,580.9 7,000.0 81.5 334.2 386.0 1,270.2 906.6 2,762.1 423.0 (3.1) 3,175.4 911.4 421,739.0 1,641.3 284.8 1,617.7 27.5 2,418.0 6,373.1 36,015.6 6,255.4 22,203.3 580.1 23.7 7,760.7 5,193.1 YTD Change from FY 11 (2,076.1) (3,016.2) (91.9) (767.6) 46,569.7 (1,558.5) (25.0) (54.0) 10,487.1 (31,934.5) (21.1) 32,187.9 (25.5) (4,488.3) 13,834.9 (1,087.1) (0.6) (17.5) 93.5 (83.7) (157.3) (432.5) 1,399.2 158.9 (234.9) (619.3) (58.5) 198,507.0 (2,387.7) 0.0 1,617.7 3.2 (558.8) (6,602.1) 12.3 (1,372.8) (5,547.3) (961.0) (11.4) (608.2) (575.1) 10 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2011 Agency Joint Legislative Budget Comm. Legislative Council Senate Board of Medical Student Loans Mine Inspector Department of Mines & Mineral Resources Nav. Streams & Adjudication OSHA Arizona State Parks Board Pioneers’ Home Comm. for Postsecondary Ed. Department of Public Safety Arizona Department of Racing Radiation Regulatory Agency Arizona Rangers Pension Real Estate Department Department of Revenue School Facilities Board Secretary of State Tax Appeals Board Department of Transportation State Treasurer Universities Board of Regents Arizona State University Northern Arizona University University of Arizona Department of Veteran Services Department of Water Resources Department of Weights & Measures Other Grand Total November 11 211.9 508.6 874.1 107.0 8.9 47.1 2,217.1 197.2 74.3 205.1 5,323.1 188.0 863.6 25.0 1.3 90.5 Change from November 10 86.4 248.9 387.0 33.8 (18.4) 4.0 (124.0) 782.4 (72.2) 3.9 (1.2) 69.2 5,757.3 (11.9) (187.5) 8.5 (0.0) 47.5 3,963.8 19,169.4 8,369.1 16,872.6 1,156.2 730.7 118.8 560,565.9 3,544.5 (6,231.5) (182.8) (5,262.5) (2,097.5) 170.0 55.0 (76.1) 8,736.5 Year-to-Date 880.0 2,693.6 3,480.9 20.5 530.1 75.2 831.2 698.4 32,671.5 2,625.2 740.3 1,181.2 26,685.7 132,884.6 4,496.8 130.4 14.1 332.2 10,314.0 186,422.2 62,652.9 163,292.7 3,918.3 2,594.1 460.7 243.4 4,757,087.9 YTD Change from FY 11 (168.2) 313.3 (597.9) (188.2) (25.2) (744.1) (8.4) (20,000.0) 302.2 540.7 4,878.6 (415.9) 43.6 (5.9) (434.1) 8,707.2 99,734.2 (4,937.6) 0.6 (3.2) (17.8) (253.8) (31,159.8) (10,600.2) (26,311.5) (4,081.1) 82.1 (76.5) (100.5) 253,969.5