JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights 1716 W. Adams Phoenix, AZ 85007 Phone: (602) 926-5491 Fax: (602) 926-5416 Summary August revenues showed growth as base General Fund revenues (excluding one-time adjustments) were 8.6% above the prior year. General Fund revenue collections totaled $767.2 million. Sales tax collections increased by 6.8% over the prior year, with significant gains seen in the contracting and retail categories. Individual income tax (IIT) gains were based on withholding growth of 6.9%. www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm “August revenues showed growth as base General Fund revenues (excluding onetime adjustments) were 8.6% above the prior September 2011 Year-to-date, FY 2012 General Fund revenues are $1.53 billion, or 8.5% above FY 2011 excluding one-time adjustments. August General Fund collections were $44.2 million above the enacted budget forecast. Year-to-date, revenues are $79.6 million above the enacted forecast. The Finance Advisory Committee (FAC) will meet October 18th to assess year-long revenue trends based on input from JLBC Staff, the University of Arizona Economic and Business Research Center, and FAC panelists. In comparison to August revenue of $767.2 million, August 2011 General Fund spending was $1.15 billion. August expenditures were $67.7 million higher than the prior year, primarily due to an increase in the state’s share of Medicaid expenses. Fiscal year-to-date, General Fund revenues of $1.53 billion have been offset by $2.82 billion in spending. Updated FY 2011 Ending Balance Pursuant to Section 145 of the General Appropriations Act, the General Accounting Office (GAO) transmitted an estimate of the FY 2011 ending balance to JLBC on September 14th. GAO currently estimates the FY 2011 ending balance will be $3.2 million. This estimate should be considered preliminary, and will be further adjusted as GAO prepares its final ending balance report which is due before December 1, 2011. Proposed Federal Assistance Earlier this month, the President proposed legislation titled the American Jobs Act which would allocate funding nationwide for state and local government assistance, K-12 school building renewal, and several other programs. Arizona would receive the following allocations over the next 2 years from the proposed legislation: • • • • $625.5 million – General state and local government assistance $544.4 million – K-12 school modernization and repairs $116.6 million – Community College modernization and repairs $602.7 million – Highway and transit maintenance and construction Because the legislation has yet to be considered by Congress, these estimates are preliminary and subject to change. year.” Table of Contents This report has been prepared for the Arizona Legislature by the Joint Legislative Budget Committee Staff on September 30, 2011. Summary .................................................................. 1 • AHCCCS – Healthcare Group........................ 10 • Updated FY 2011 Balance Projection ............. 1 • AHCCCS – Systematic Alien Verification...... 10 • Proposed Federal Assistance ........................... 1 • ADEQ – Water Quality Assurance Fund........ 10 August Revenues.................................................... 2 • DHS – Prior Year Reconciliation ...................... 10 Economic Indicators.............................................. 4 • Homeland Security – Funding......................... 10 JLBC Meeting........................................................... 8 • SPB – Reservation Surcharge Fund ................ 11 JCCR Meeting ......................................................... 9 • Secretary of State – Election Systems Fund.. 11 Summary of Recent Agency Reports • Supreme Court – Automation Projects ......... 11 • AHCCCS – GME Residency Positions ............ 10 August Spending .................................................. 13 2 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2011 August Revenues Table 1 General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions) August Year-to-Date “Sales Tax collections were $365.2 million, or 6.8% above August 2010.” FY 2012 Collections $ 767.2 $ 1,532.3 Difference From Forecast $ 44.2 $ 79.6 Difference From FY 2011 $ 118.7 $ 223.9 Sales Tax collections were $365.2 million, or 6.8% above August 2010. Excluding the $71.7 million from the temporary 1-cent increase, collections were $293.5 million, or 5.7% above August 2010. The temporary 1-cent tax grew significantly more than the base tax because last year’s 1-cent collections reflected a 120day exemption for purchases under contract prior to the effective date of the tax. Corporate Income Tax net collections were $32.4 million in August, which is $14.2 million above the prior year. Collections were $19.1 million above the forecast. This large increase was due to over $20 million in one-time audit collections. Without these collections, revenue would have been negative compared to the prior year. Year-to-date, collections are $26.7 million above forecast. Table 2 displays the August growth rates for the largest categories. The Lottery Commission reports that August ticket sales were $48.2 million, which is $5.9 million, or 14.0%, above sales in the prior year. Year-to-date ticket sales are $94.0 million, which is 10.9% above last year’s sales. Table 2 Sales Tax Growth Rates Compared to Prior Year Retail Contracting Utilities Use Restaurant & Bar August 8.4% 14.5% (9.1)% 4.8% 12.4% YTD 7.9% 14.1% 0.2% 13.7% 10.6% Retail and contracting together account for about 60% of all sales tax revenues. Contracting’s large gain this month follows the trend begun in the second half of FY 2011, which grew 7.6% over the same period in the prior year. Individual Income Tax net revenues were $279.6 million in August. Collections were $15.5 million above forecast. Year-to-date, revenues have grown 8.6% and are $27.5 million above forecast through August. As indicated in Table 3, withholding grew by 6.9% in August for a year-to-date increase of 5.8% Table 3 Individual Income Tax Growth Rates Compared to Prior Year Withholding Estimated + Final Payments Refunds August 6.9% 16.4% (10.3)% YTD 5.8% 14.4% (12.4)% Non-General Fund Tobacco Tax revenues were $23.8 million in August. Collections were down (11.0)% compared to the prior year. Year-to-date collections are down (2.2)%. Less than 10% of tobacco taxes are deposited directly into the General Fund. The remainder primarily goes to AHCCCS and the Department of Health Services to defray the General Fund cost of operating those programs, along with funding the Early Childhood Development and Health Board. Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) revenues consist of gasoline and use fuel (diesel) tax, motor carrier fees (commercial carriers), vehicle license tax and registration fees, and various other fees. HURF collections of $97.6 million in August were down $(1.4) million, or (1.5)%, compared to August of last year. Year-to-date revenues have fallen (0.4)%. 3 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2011 Table 4 General Fund Revenue: Change from Previous Year and Enacted April Budget Forecast August 2011 Current Month FY 2012 YTD (Two Months) Change From Actual August 2010 August 2011 Amount Change from Actual Forecast Percent Amount Percent August 2010 August 2011 Amount Forecast Percent Amount Percent Taxes Sales and Use - Base* - 1¢ Increase* Income - Individual - Corporate Property Luxury - Tobacco - Liquor Insurance Premium Estate Other Taxes Sub-Total Taxes $293,482,631 $15,747,723 $600,411,804 $40,962,165 71,743,198 7,531,998 11.7 5.7 % $9,047,821 3,668,538 3.2 % 5.4 147,211,229 18,390,075 14.3 7.3 % $23,401,686 9,503,676 4.1 % 6.9 279,592,728 22,437,407 8.7 15,511,237 5.9 537,695,893 42,773,729 8.6 27,486,871 5.4 32,373,418 14,155,038 77.7 19,124,982 144.4 58,013,942 16,348,893 39.2 26,660,921 85.0 70,217 17,791 33.9 5,438 8.4 296,435 45,315 18.0 26,924 10.0 1,628,923 (71,958) (4.2) (80,983) (4.7) 4,385,340 397,084 10.0 375,921 9.4 2,795,782 687,376 32.6 638,956 29.6 5,934,277 2,065,145 53.4 1,976,289 49.9 (11.1) 75,374,793 (6,036,988) (7.4) (9,593,277) (11.3) -- 220,652 (216,524) (49.5) 220,652 105,078 (26,734) (20.3) 12,010 37,756,828 (2,656,251) (6.6) 0 (437,176) (100.0) 0 56,678 (23,115) (29.0) 10,445 8.7 % (4,701,484) $43,224,950 22.6 6.4 % $1,429,649,443 $114,702,160 8.7 % -12.9 $719,500,403 $57,388,833 $80,071,673 5.9 % Lottery 5,006,040 666,185 15.4 153,324 3.2 5,006,040 666,185 15.4 153,324 3.2 License, Fees and Permits 2,988,384 146,678 5.2 412,548 16.0 4,687,870 (135,471) (2.8) (61,650) (1.3) Other Revenue Interest 2,548 (644,435) (99.6) (497,452) (99.5) 3,319 (644,578) (99.5) (996,681) (99.7) Sales and Services 1,092,617 (336,178) (23.5) (620,498) (36.2) 1,848,554 (755,889) (29.0) (958,541) (34.1) Other Miscellaneous 2,806,133 695,323 32.9 156.2 4,012,788 (77,965) (1.9) 1,920,262 0 0 -- 0 Disproportionate Share Transfers and Reimbursements Sub-Total Other Revenue TOTAL BASE REVENUE 70,468 (187,844) -(72.7) 1,710,924 0 (190,979) -- 0 (73.0) 2,337,214 11,966,190 339,729 2.9 % 967,867 8.8 % 17,895,785 $731,466,593 $57,728,562 8.6 % $44,192,817 6.4 % $1,447,545,228 0 (506,841) (1,454,559) $113,247,601 (17.8) (7.5) % 8.5 % (541,356) 91.8 -(18.8) (484,642) $79,587,031 (2.6) % 5.8 % Other Adjustments Urban Revenue Sharing Budget Plan Transfers (35,368,620) 4,131,923 71,100,415 56,841,334 -398.6 0 0.0 (70,737,240) 0 0.0 155,442,901 8,263,846 102,346,207 -192.8 0 0.0 0 0.0 Budget Legislation 0 0 -- 0 -- 0 0 -- 0 -- Leaseback Proceeds 0 0 -- 0 -- 0 0 -- 0 -- 35,731,795 60,973,257 -- % 0 0.0 % 84,705,661 110,610,053 -- % 0 0.0 % $767,198,388 $118,701,819 18.3 % $44,192,817 6.1 % $1,532,250,889 $223,857,654 17.1 % $79,587,031 5.5 % Sub-Total Other Adjustments TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE Non-General Funds Highway User Revenue Fund $97,604,599 ($1,444,602) (1.5) % ($2,930,340) (2.9) % $198,601,271 ($793,359) (0.4) % ($3,784,279) (1.9) % Tobacco Tax (All Funds Total) $23,822,856 ($2,950,366) (11.0) % ($3,819,923) (13.8) % $52,934,964 ($1,191,484) (2.2) % ($3,026,771) (5.4) % __________ * Total August collections including the temporary 1¢ increase approved by the voters in May 2010 were $365.2 million. This amount is $23.3 million, or 6.8%, above August 2010 and $12.7 million, or 3.6%, above forecast. Year to date, total collections including the 1¢ increase were $747.6 million. This amount is $59.3 million, or 8.6%, above August 2010 and $32.9 million above forecast. 4 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2011 Economic Indicators NATIONAL “Compared to the same month in the prior year, consumer prices were up by 3.8%, the largest such increase since September 2008.” The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence Index fell by (14.7) points, or (25.2)%, in August to 44.5, the lowest level since April 2009. The latest reading indicates that consumer confidence slipped back to recessionary levels in August, as households’ outlook on business conditions, employment, and personal finances worsened considerably. Econometric research has shown that large changes in consumer sentiments (in the range of 20% to 30%) tend to have a noticeable impact on retail sales and consumer spending. The Conference Board’s U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose by 0.3% in August, to 116.2. Increases in the money supply and a favorable interest rate spread contributed positively to the index, while a decrease in stock prices and a fall in consumer expectations pulled it back. Absent the advance of the financial components, the index would have fallen by (0.7)% in August. The advance of the index over the last 4 months would not have occurred without the strong positive contributions from the financial indicators. Consumer prices, as measured by the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased by 0.4% in August. The CPI increase was driven by higher energy, food, clothing, and shelter prices. Compared to the same month in the prior year, consumer prices were up by 3.8%, the largest such increase since September 2008. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, increased by 0.2%. Year over year, core inflation is up by 2.0%. While core inflation remains contained, it should be noted that the year-over-year rate has been trending up since the beginning of calendar year 2011. ARIZONA The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s coincident index gauges current economic activity in each state. The index combines 4 indicators: employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, unemployment rate, and inflation-adjusted wages. Arizona was 1 of 26 states for which the coincident index increased in August. From July to August, Arizona’s index increased by 0.4% compared to an increase of 0.1% for the nation as a whole. July’s Arizona index was 1.7% above last year. While Arizona's index has improved compared to the same time period last year, the index remains (13.0)% below its peak reading in August 2007. Only 4 other states (Florida, Idaho, Michigan, and Nevada) have had a larger decline than Arizona. By way of comparison, the national coincident index has declined (4.5)% since its historical peak in January 2008. See Tracking Arizona’s Recovery for additional historical information. Employment According to the Employment and Population Statistics Unit (EPSU) of the Department of Administration, the state added 52,800 nonfarm jobs in August over July. Job gains typically occur in August when students resume their classes in public schools. The job gain this August was significantly larger than the average August workforce increase of 34,900 in the prior 10 years. Most of the monthly net job gain (almost 85%) was attributable to state and local public education. According to EPSU, this figure was probably overstated due to the fact that schools started earlier this year. This suggests that the monthly job gains from public education will be smaller than normal in September. In August, the state had 40,700, or 1.7%, more persons on the payrolls than 1 year ago. August marked the 8th straight month with year-over-year gains in employment. The 1.7% gain in August was the best performance since March 2007. However, as noted earlier, this figure may have been overstated due to an earlier start of the school year than previously. Private sector employment, which makes up almost 85% of all nonfarm jobs, added 12,400 jobs in August over July. This was the largest August private net job gain in 5 years. Year over year, private sector employment has grown by 2.0%, or 39,300 positions. Most of these gains have occurred in the service sector, especially the health care industry, and to a lesser extent, the leisure and hospitality industry. The construction sector grew by 1,000 jobs in August over July, twice the gain typically reported for this month. August marked the second straight month with a year-over-year gain (1.3%) in construction employment after 5 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2011 Economic Indicators 54 consecutive months with year-over-year losses. Construction employment makes up 4.8% of nonfarm employment today compared to 9.5% during the height of the housing boom in July 2006. The manufacturing industry continued to add jobs in August and now employs 2.6%, or 3,900 more workers than one year ago. All subsectors of the industry except for aerospace have expanded their payrolls. “To return to prerecession employment levels, the state would have to add 327,000 jobs, which would take years to accomplish at the current rate of job gains.” While nonfarm employment has grown, year over year, in the last 8 months, the net gains have been small compared to prior periods of recovery. The average net gain thus far in CY 2011 is 12,000 jobs, or 0.5% over last year. To return to pre-recession employment levels, the state would have to add 327,000 jobs, which would take years to accomplish at the current rate of job gains. See Tracking Arizona’s Recovery for additional historical information. The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell from 9.4% to 9.3% in August, returning it to the same level as in June. The jobless rate has been largely unchanged in the previous 5 months. August marked the 30th consecutive month with an unemployment rate of 9% or higher. During the deep recession in the early 1980s, the state experienced 17 straight months with a jobless rate at or above 9%. The U.S. unemployment rate remained at 9.1% in August. The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that 25,368 Arizona residents filed initial claims for unemployment insurance in August, a decline of (2,591), or (9.3)%, claims over the prior month. This reduction in initial claims was due to seasonal factors. Historically, the month of August has an average decline of (19.9)%. The average number of claims for August in the 10-year period prior to the start of the last recession was 15,970. Initial claims in August were (7.7)% below last year’s level. Claims peaked in April 2009 when more than 41,000 individuals filed for initial jobless benefits. See Tracking Arizona’s Recovery, for additional historical information. Housing In August, the number of new Maricopa County foreclosure notices increased 26.8% from July levels to 5,318. The number of (Continued) Maricopa County pending foreclosures decreased from 24,393 in July to 23,752 in August. The August total is (53.8)% below the peak in December 2009 (51,466). See Tracking Arizona’s Recovery for additional historical information. While pending foreclosures continue their decline from recent highs, they continue to be a major influence on existing home sales and the respective prices. In the Metropolitan Phoenix area in August, there were a total of 9,250 existing single-family home sales that resulted in a median resale home price of $122,400. Relative to the prior year, the number of sales is up 5.2%, while prices are (12.3)% lower. Of the existing sales, 30.9%, or 2,860 were foreclosures. State Agency Data The FY 2012 budget included significant changes to the eligibility of several AHCCCS populations for services. Because of these changes, the economic indicators section will now include an expanded report of AHCCCS caseloads across several populations. In September, total AHCCCS caseloads equaled 1.38 million members, a (0.4)% decrease over the prior month. Overall AHCCCS caseloads are currently 2.0% above September 2010 levels. In terms of specific categories, the spend down and the KidsCare populations saw significant declines from the prior year of (73.7)% and (42.4)%, respectively. These declines are due to enrollment freezes for the programs, as the spend down program has been frozen since May 2011, while the KidsCare program has had an enrollment freeze since January 2010. The Proposition 204 childless adult category has declined (4.9)% from the prior month as new enrollment under this category stopped in early July. Some of this decline results from members being transferred to other Medicaid categories. Since July 1, AHCCCS reports that 9,100 Proposition 204 childless adult members were transferred to the SSI program. There were 37,793 TANF recipients in the state in August, a monthly caseload decrease of (8.5)%. Year-over-year, the number of TANF recipients has declined by (24.7)%. This 6 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2011 Economic Indicators decline is the result of changes to the statutory lifetime limit a person may receive cash assistance. The FY 2011 budget reduced the lifetime limit to 36 months. The FY 2012 budget further reduces this limit to 24 months. Previously, the maximum had been 60 months. The FY 2012 budget assumed caseloads of approximately 36,000 in FY 2012. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as Food Stamps, provides assistance to low-income households to purchase food. In August, there were a total 1.1 million food stamp recipients in the state, a 1.9% increase over the prior month. Compared to the same month last year, food stamp participation was up by 7.2%. The number of food stamp recipients began increasing steadily in July 2007, after several years in the 550,000 to 575,000 range. The 3-month average count of the Department of Correction’s (ADC) inmate population decreased to 40,146 inmates between July and September 2011. Relative to the prior 3month period, the population has decreased by (34) inmates. Compared to a year ago the population has declined by (231) inmates. (Continued) 7 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2011 Economic Indicators (Continued) Table 5 ECONOMIC INDICATORS Indicator Arizona - Unemployment Rate (SA) - Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims - Unemployment Insurance Claimants - Non-Farm Employment - Total Manufacturing Construction - Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing - Contracting Tax Receipts (3-month average) - Retail Sales Tax Receipts (3-month average) - Residential Building Permits (3-month moving average) Single-family Multi-unit - Greater Phoenix Existing Home Sales Single-Family Townhouse/Condominium - Greater Phoenix Median Resale Home Price Single-Family Townhouse/Condominium - Foreclosure Activity, Maricopa County Foreclosure Notices (Notice of Trustee’s Sales Recorded) Pending Foreclosures (Active Notices) Greater Phoenix S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jan. 2000 = 100) - Greater Phoenix Total Housing Inventory, (ARMLS) - Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers - Arizona Average Natural Gas Price ($ per thousand cubic feet) - Arizona Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100) - Arizona Coincident Index (July 1992 = 100) - Arizona Personal Income - Arizona Population - AHCCCS Recipients Acute Care Tradtional Spend Down Prop 204 Childless Adults Other Prop 204 KidsCare Long-Term Care – Elderly & DD Emergency Services - TANF Recipients - SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients - ADC Inmate Growth (3-month average) - Probation Caseload (Adult/Juvenile) Non-Maricopa Maricopa County United States - Gross Domestic Product (Chained 2005 dollars, SAAR) - Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100) - Leading Indicators Index (2004 = 100) - U.S. Semiconductor Billings (3-month moving average) - Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100) *Adjusted for 1¢ sales tax Time Period Current Value Change From Prior Period Change From Prior Year August August June August August August August Jun-Aug Jun-Aug 9.3% 27,959 69,087 2.39 million 151,300 113,700 40.5 $34.5 million $142.1 million (0.1)% (9.3)% 2.1% 2.3% 0.1% 0.9% 2.8% 1.2% (3.9)% (0.6)% (7.7)% (21.3)% 1.7% 2.6% 1.3% 2.0% 11.2%* 9.6%* Jun-Aug Jun-Aug 1,004 368 3.6% 54.6% 9.7% 347.0% August August 9,250 1,275 7.2% 10.4% 5.2% (12.1)% August August $122,400 $78,825 (3.8)% (1.5)% (12.3)% (8.2)% August August July 5,318 23,752 100.54 26.8% (2.6)% (0.1)% (29.6)% (42.5)% (8.8)% August July June 26,983 3.63 million $6.24 (2.5)% 1.7% 3.1% (39.1)% 9.2% 5.1% 3rd Quarter 2011 August 1st Quarter 2011 April 1, 2010 September August August July-Sept 54.0 178.15 $229.9 billion 6.39 million 1,378,004 892,199 1,553 206,478 159,243 15,752 51,418 51,361 37,793 1,145,189 40,146 4.0% 0.4% 1.8% N/A (0.4)% 0.7% (45.3)% (4.9)% 0.0% (5.5)% 0.1% 3.2% (8.5)% 1.9% (34) inmates 10.0% 1.7% 4.3% N/A 2.0% 5.3% (73.7)% (5.8)% 4.6% (42.4)% 2.0% 6.0% (24.7)% 7.2% (231) inmates May May 18,990 26,184 (37) (73) (936) (1,645) 2nd Quarter 2011 (2nd Estimate) August August Mar-May August $13.3 trillion 1.0% 1.5% 44.5 116.2 $4.52 billion 226.27 (25.2)% 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% (16.4)% 6.5% 3.2% 3.8% 8 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2011 JLBC Meeting At its September 28, 2011 meeting, the Joint Legislative Budget Committee considered the following issues: AHCCCS/Department of Health Services/ Department of Economic Security - Review of Proposed Capitation Rate Changes – The Committee gave a favorable review of AHCCCS’s proposed capitation rate changes and benefit limitations for the state’s Medicaid system. Arizona Board of Regents - Review of FY 2012 Tuition Revenues - The Committee approved the Arizona Board of Regents’ plans to use tuition revenue amounts greater than the amount appropriated by the Legislature and all non-appropriated tuition and fee revenue for FY 2012. Attorney General - Review of Allocation of Settlement Monies - The Committee gave a favorable review of a $1.4 million settlement resulting from a settlement with GlaxoSmithKline related to substandard drug manufacturing practices by a subsidiary which has since ceased operations. The settlement will be deposited in the Consumer Fraud Revolving Fund. Department of Health Services - Consider Approval of Nursing Care Facilities Survey The Committee approved the awarding of a contract of $400,000 for a contractor to conduct a quality improvement study of statewide nursing care facilities, to be paid for from the Nursing Care Institution Resident Protection Revolving Fund. 9 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2011 JCCR Meeting At its September 28, 2011 meeting, the Joint Committee on Capital Review considered the following issues: Arizona Department of Administration – Review of FY 2012 Building Renewal Allocation Plan – The Committee gave a favorable review of the Department of Administration’s $6.5 million FY 2012 Building Renewal Allocation Plan, which consists of the following uses: $905,000 for fire and life safety projects, $2.7 million for major building services projects, $736,000 for building shell projects, $1,128,000 for infrastructure projects, $28,000 for energy conservation projects, and $400,000 for building interior projects. The remaining $624,000 will be allocated for project management, construction insurance, and contingency. Arizona Department of Administration Consider Recommending FY 2011 and FY 2012 Rent Exemptions – The Committee recommended, upon request of the Department of Administration, a partial rent exemption for the Department of Economic Security and a corresponding $1,900 increase for AHCCCS in FY 2011. For FY 2012, the Committee recommended 2 partial rent exemptions for the Commission for the Deaf and Hard of Hearing and the Department of Insurance, totaling $45,800. State Department of Corrections – Review of FY 2012 Building Renewal Allocation Plan – The Committee gave a favorable review to the Department of Corrections’ $4.6 million FY 2012 Building Renewal Allocation Plan to be spent as follows: $1.7 million for upgrading locking systems, $2.3 million for perimeter electric security systems, and $320,000 for well and water systems. The remainder will be allocated for preventative maintenance projects, an emergency contingency reserve, and risk management premiums. Arizona Department of Transportation – Review of the FY 2012 Building Renewal Allocation Plan – The Committee gave a favorable review to the Department of Transportation’s $1.1 million FY 2012 Building Renewal Allocation Plan, including $1.0 million from the State Highway Fund for 68 projects and $50,000 from the State Aviation Fund for 4 projects. Arizona Game and Fish Department – Review of FY 2009 Yuma Office and FY 2012 Property and Dam Maintenance Projects – The Committee gave a favorable review of the department’s $954,000 Yuma Office remodel/expansion expenditures, $500,000 of spending on property maintenance. The committee also gave approval to expend partial funding of $100,000 from the FY 2012 appropriation for dam maintenance projects. Arizona State University – Review of 6 Bond Projects – The Committee gave a favorable review of $99.7 million in bond issuances. These projects would be supported with student fees, tuition, and lottery proceeds. The largest project is a $57.1 million expansion of the Business School on the Main campus. 10 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2011 Summary of Recent Agency Reports AHCCCS – Report on Graduate Medical Education Residency Positions – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 36-2903.01, the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System (AHCCCS) has submitted its annual report on the number of new residency positions funded by local, county, or tribal governments. The agency indicates that these contributions in FY 2010 provided partial funding for an additional 803 residency positions at 5 hospitals. The positions were funded by local contributions of $20.6 million and a federal match of $65.1 million, resulting in $85.8 million total new funding. (Aaron Galeener) AHCCCS - Report on Healthcare Group Pursuant to A.R.S. § 36-2912AA, the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System (AHCCCS) submitted its financial report for Healthcare Group (HCG) for the period January 1, 2011 to March 31, 2011. The agency reports that HCG’s net operating income was $1.8 million for the 3rd quarter of FY 2011. HCG began FY 2011 with total unpaid prior year obligations and other liabilities of $12.4 million. As of September 30, 2010, total liability was $10.5 million. Pursuant to A.R.S. § 36-2912Z, AHCCCS reports that, as of March 2011, total statewide HCG medical plan enrollment was 8,564, with participating members from 3,116 employers. This is a decline of (1,856) participating members (17.8% decline) and (778) employers (20.0% decline) from the start of the fiscal year. AHCCCS believes that the worsening economy and discontinued outreach has contributed to the declining enrollment. (Aaron Galeener) AHCCCS – Report on Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements Program – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 36-2903.03, the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System (AHCCCS) provided its latest report on the collection and verification of documentation associated with the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) program. AHCCCS, in conjunction with the Department of Economic Security (DES), verified the immigration status of 10,296 individuals between January 1, 2011 and March 30, 2011. During this period, AHCCCS and DES referred 9 individuals for prosecution for fraudulent schemes, theft, forgery, and selling prescription medicines. (Aaron Galeener) Department of Environmental Quality – Report on Water Quality Assurance Revolving Fund for FY 2011 – Pursuant to a General Appropriation Act footnote, the Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) is required to report annually by September 1 to the Joint Legislative Budget Committee (JLBC) on the progress of activities in the Water Quality Assurance Revolving Fund (WQARF) Program. The WQARF Program is similar to the federal Superfund program in that it is designed to remediate contaminated groundwater at specified sites. Based on the report, FY 2011 expenditures were $9.0 million. Unexpended funds at the end of FY 2011 totaled $7.2 million. According to the report, there were 36 sites on the WQARF Registry. Sites on the registry have not changed since 2004. The report contained no information regarding the expected duration or total remediation costs for these sites. In response to lowered funding, DEQ issued stop work directives to WQARF contractors on January 30, 2009 for all site activities not related to the operation and maintenance of soil and groundwater treatment systems. In FY 2012, program expenditures for 26 sites that remain active are projected to be $6.8 million. (James Alcantar) Department of Health Services – Report on Prior Year Reconciliation and Penalty Monies as State Match for Medicaid Behavioral Health Services – Pursuant to a FY 2012 General Appropriation Act footnote, the Department of Health Services (DHS) has submitted a report on reconciliation payments and penalty fees that were used to draw down federal monies for Medicaid behavioral health services in FY 2011. DHS reports that revenue from reconciliation payments and penalty fees totaled $45.3 million, which was deposited into the agency’s IGA/ISA Fund. These monies were used as state match for Medicaid behavioral health services and drew down $112.2 million in federal monies for a total of $157.6 million in FY 2011. (Art Smith) Arizona Department of Homeland Security – Report on Homeland Security Funding – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 41-4255, the Arizona Department of Homeland Security has 11 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2011 Summary of Recent Agency Reports submitted an annual report detailing grant allocations and expenditures for Homeland Security Grants from Federal Fiscal Year (FFY) 2007 through FFY 2010. The report indicates that $40.6 million of the $40.8 million FFY 2007 allocation has been expended. Information for FFY 2008 - FFY 2010 is included in Table 6 below. The state was allocated and the Arizona Department of Homeland Security awarded $53.3 million in homeland security grants for FFY 2010. The department reported total expenditures of $9.6 million, leaving $43.7 million unexpended. State agencies were awarded $14.0 million, of which $6.4 million has been expended. Local governments were awarded $39.3 million, of which $3.2 million has been expended. The largest local grantee was the City of Phoenix ($6.6 million). The largest state grantee was the Department of Emergency and Military Affairs (DEMA) ($6.6 million). The largest individual grant of $6.6 million went to DEMA for the personnel costs for those directly involved in emergency management activities and to support related operational costs. FFY 2010 represented a decrease from the amount received in FFY 2009 but an increase from the amount received in FFY 2008. While Arizona received $53.3 million in FFY 2010, the state received $57.8 million in FFY 2009 and $50.5 million in FFY 2008, respectively. Of the funds received, 73.6% have been expended for FFY 2009, and 88.1% have been expended for FFY 2008. (Eric Billings) State Parks Board – Report on Reservation Surcharge Fund Revenue – Pursuant to a FY 2012 General Appropriation Act footnote, (continued) the State Parks Board is submitting a report on Reservation Surcharge Fund revenue in excess of its appropriation of $206,400 and the intended use of these additional monies. The State Parks Board estimates that the Reservation Surcharge Fund will generate additional receipts of about $293,600, or $500,000 in total revenue, due to the implementation of a new electronic reservation system. Since the new system is also creating additional expenses, the Parks Board intends to use the additional revenues for administering and maintaining the reservation system. The Parks Board expects to spend $395,000 from the fund, plus transfer $105,000 to the General Fund for a required fund sweep. (Art Smith) Secretary of State - Report on the Election Systems Improvement Fund – Pursuant to 2011 and 2012 General Appropriation Act footnotes, the Secretary of State submitted a report on the expenditures from the Election Systems Improvement Fund to implement the Help America Vote Act. The expenditures in FY 2010 were $2.3 million, and in FY 2011 were $3.6 million and are projected to be $3.5 million in FY 2012. The Secretary of State reports that expenditures are used as follows: 83% for voter registration, 9% for administration, 5% on poll workers, and 3% for telecommunications purposes. (Ben Beutler) Supreme Court – Report on Current and Future Automation Projects – Pursuant to a General Appropriation Act footnote, the Administrative Office of the Courts (AOC) has provided its FY 2012 report to the JLBC on current and future automation projects coordinated by the AOC. The AOC estimates Table 6 Awards and Expenditures by Homeland Security Grant Recipients State Awards Local Government Awards Total Awards FFY 2008 $13,530,300 37,006,000 $50,536,300 FFY 2009 $14,025,400 43,752,200 $57,777,600 FFY 2010 $13,985,100 39,268,600 $53,253,700 State Expenditures Local Government Expenditures Total Expenditures $12,603,200 31,937,700 $44,540,900 $10,392,100 32,157,100 $42,549,200 $6,388,400 3,245,100 $ 9,633,500 Percentage of Total Awards Currently Expended 88.1% 73.6% 18.1% 12 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2011 Summary of Recent Agency Reports total state automation expenditures in FY 2012 will be approximately $19.8 million. Of this amount, approximately $9.1 million, or 46%, will be spent on 5 new projects, $6.0 million, or 30%, will be spent on shared infrastructure, and $4.7 million, or 24%, will be spent on ongoing automation support in FY 2012. Of the 5 new projects, the larger projects include: • Updating the limited jurisdiction case management system for statewide utilization ($4.0 million) • Further development of electronic filing ($3.6 million) • Updating and enhancing the Juvenile OnLine Tracking System (JOLTS) ($1.2 million) (James Alcantar) (continued) 13 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2011 August Spending “August 2011 August 2011 General Fund spending was $1.15 billion. August expenditures were higher than the prior year in part due to an increase in the state’s share of Medicaid expenses. spending of FY 2012 Spending $1.15 billion was $67.7 million August 2011 spending of $1.15 billion was $67.7 million higher than August 2010 (See Table 7). higher than • August 2010.” • • The Department of Health Services spent $135.7 million in August, which is $120.0 million more than the previous year. This increase is due to an increase in the state’s share of Medicaid payments as well as the timing of the Medicaid payments. School Facilities Board spent $0.1 million in July, or $31.9 million less than the prior year, due to the timing of debt service payments. AHCCCS spending was $147.1 million in August, which is an increase of $41.1 million from the prior year. Federal Medicaid monies decreased, which caused the state’s share of Medicaid services to increase. Table 7 General Fund Spending ($ in Millions) August 11 Agency AHCCCS Corrections Economic Security Education Health Services Public Safety School Facilities Board Universities Leaseback Debt Service Other Total Change from August 10 Year-toDate 308.0 180.4 356.2 YTD Change from FY 11 147.1 104.8 3.7 41.1 6.3 11.5 (0.7) 25.5 37.9 665.9 135.7 2.1 0.1 (4.2) 120.0 0.6 (31.9) 1,328.0 236.4 22.7 132.6 47.9 0.0 (12.3) 0.0 86.5 52.1 (28.8) 52.1 39.5 1,146.8 (63.4) 67.7 113.9 2,816.8 (108.7) 232.4 35.5 118.9 0.7 100.0 14 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2011 Table 8 Agency Department of Administration Department of Admin Sale/Leaseback D/S Office of Administrative Hearings Department of Agriculture AHCCCS Arizona Commission on the Arts Attorney General AZ Capital Post Conviction Public Defender State Board of Charter Schools Dept. of Comm./AZ Commerce Authority Community Colleges Corporation Commission Department of Corrections AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind Department of Economic Security Department of Education DEMA Department. of Environmental Quality DEQ – WQARF Office of Equal Opportunity State Board of Equalization Board of Executive Clemency Department of Financial Institutions Department of Fire, Life, Bldg Safety Office of the State Forester Arizona Geological Survey Government Information Tech. Governor Gov. - OSPB Department of Health Services Arizona Historical Society Prescott Historical Society of AZ Independent Redistricting Comm. Commission on Indian Affairs Department of Insurance Judiciary Supreme Court Superior Court Court of Appeals Department of Juvenile Corrections State Land Department Law Enforcement Merit System Legislature Auditor General House of Representatives Joint Legislative Budget Comm. General Fund Spending ($ in Thousands) Change from August 11 August 10 2,022.9 (56,617.9) 68.1 27.6 966.1 464.7 147,101.3 41,052.5 (36.7) 2,131.8 903.7 38.2 (6.7) Year-to-Date 2,135.9 52,066.9 141.5 1,850.8 307,980.0 4,747.9 99.1 49.7 2,625.0 35.9 104,773.7 2,451.4 3,710.0 665,908.4 1,440.1 10.8 31.6 59.7 165.8 114.0 336.5 52.9 428.3 133.2 135,684.8 221.9 43.7 385.5 4.6 337.5 -313.5 1,481.8 924.1 4,120.8 26.3 4.3 0.0 2,555.9 (61.1) 6,305.9 969.4 11,467.5 (4,174.9) 309.4 (23.0) (6.7) (233.2) 15.2 17.3 14.8 21.8 (46.9) (936.9) 12.8 120,035.8 (2,615.1) 8.6 385.5 (5.9) (2.7) (10,000.9) (203.6) (1,165.8) 1,386.7 (113.3) 1.4 175.5 5,250.0 17,144.3 88.9 180,380.6 4,975.0 356,249.4 1,328,020.9 2,508.8 28.2 151.6 130.3 612.1 507.7 621.2 108.5 1,110.1 338.7 236,364.4 574.3 109.7 616.1 8.7 1,172.4 3,235.4 17,466.6 2,895.1 10,005.4 158.0 7.6 (3.9) 4,999.3 (15,962.3) (54.2) 25,461.1 1,436.6 37,922.3 35,499.3 359.6 (22.2) 64.1 (215.8) 7.7 284.1 (23.5) 28.6 (121.5) (816.0) 26.3 118,878.0 (2,549.1) 22.7 616.1 (1.8) (854.9) (8,086.6) 450.7 (2,028.6) (7,493.6) (607.8) (10.3) 1,180.5 838.8 184.9 (24.1) 133.6 (258.7) 3,333.4 2,131.6 394.6 (1,697.7) 319.5 (247.3) YTD Change from FY 11 (58,391.4) 52,066.9 (130.6) (1,416.0) (790.2) (88.1) 2,221.7 (18.5) 15 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – SEPTEMBER 2011 Agency Legislative Council Senate Board of Medical Student Loans Mine Inspector Department of Mines & Mineral Resources Nav. Streams & Adjudication OSHA Arizona State Parks Board Pioneers’ Home Comm. for Postsecondary Ed. Department of Public Safety Arizona Department of Racing Radiation Regulatory Agency Arizona Rangers Pension Real Estate Department Department of Revenue School Facilities Board Secretary of State Tax Appeals Board Department of Transportation State Treasurer Universities Board of Regents Arizona State University Northern Arizona University University of Arizona Department of Veteran Services Department of Water Resources Department of Weights & Measures Other Grand Total August 11 784.0 551.5 80.2 27.4 109.6 2,143.2 262.1 83.1 452.2 5,141.1 76.4 858.5 16.7 4.3 7,036.1 4,596.7 19,228.1 5,947.3 18,110.2 307.1 493.2 97.2 1,146,814.3 Change from August 10 273.4 71.0 (128.0) (110.0) (73.7) 22.5 33.9 633.3 30.2 75.7 (1.2) (215.7) (333.5) (31,918.3) (3,076.7) 5.8 1.4 7,117.5 Year-to-Date 1,569.6 1,427.7 288.0 48.8 655.8 22,695.9 419.1 391.0 657.5 11,945.2 132,551.3 2,175.1 72.7 7.2 7,036.1 (716.4) (4,966.8) (2,604.7) (4,024.8) (2,066.4) 48.9 28.8 67,662.1 4,902.2 35,926.7 11,894.5 33,745.1 1,009.8 1,145.5 191.4 116.5 2,816,770.2 YTD Change from FY 11 (32.2) (1,009.5) (128.0) (82.5) (111.1) 35.8 (20,000.0) 449.5 719.9 (260.3) (5.9) (2.4) (514.8) 1,729.9 99,790.5 (2,649.5) (5.1) (4.3) 6,984.6 (586.8) (12,463.1) (5,209.4) (10,524.9) (2,587.3) (88.5) 42.8 116.5 232,385.9