JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights

1716 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Phone:
(602) 926-5491
Fax:
(602) 926-5416

www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

“April was the
ninth
consecutive
month of yearover-year
growth in base
General Fund
revenue
collections.”

May 2011

Summary
April was the ninth consecutive month of
year-over-year growth in base General Fund
revenue collections. General Fund revenues
totaled $827.0 million. Excluding the
temporary 1-cent sales tax, these collections
were 17.1% above last year.

Fiscal year-to-date, General Fund revenues of
$6.66 billion have been offset by $7.32 billion
in spending.

In our Preliminary April Revenue Update of May
9, 2011, we originally reported April revenues
were 18.5% above last year, but this was
revised downward as the final numbers were
received.

The state began FY 2011 with an operating
balance of $1.5 billion. The divergence of
revenues and spending year-to-date has
caused the operating fund balance to
decline to $950.2 million.

Year to date, FY 2011 General Fund revenues
are $6.66 billion, or 9.2% above FY 2010
without the 1-cent sales tax.

Growth in April Revenues
April collections were largely driven by growth
in individual income tax collections,
specifically estimated and final payments
which were 25.4% greater than the prior year.
These income tax payments likely increased
for two reasons: a reduction in the use of
itemized deductions, along with an increase
in capital gains.

April General Fund collections were $86.1
million above the January budget forecast.
Year-to-date, revenues are $194.6 million
above the January forecast. The recently
enacted budget incorporated $40 million of
that higher revenue level, leaving year-todate collections at $154.6 million above the
enacted budget.
Given preliminary May revenue figures, it
appears likely these gains will be maintained
through the end of the fiscal year.
The FY 2011 enacted budget revisions
presumed a year-end shortfall of $(332)
million. The budget then resolved this shortfall
during FY 2012. If the year-to-date “above
forecast” revenue gain of $155 million is
sustained through the end of June, the FY
2011 shortfall would decline to $(177) million.
In comparison to April revenue of $827.0
million, April 2011 General Fund spending was
$621.7 million. April expenditures were $313.6
million higher than the prior year, primarily due
to differences in the timing of the K-12 rollover
and federal fiscal stabilization fund monies

received last year. Year-to-date, spending
has declined (1.4)%.

The state experienced a significant decline in
the use of itemized deductions compared to
the prior year. This may be caused by the
state’s high foreclosure rate reducing home
ownership, leading to a corresponding
decline in the use of the mortgage interest
deduction. Recent census data indicate that
Arizona homeownership rates have declined
to approximately 66%, from a high of over 73%
during calendar year 2006. This decline is likely
understated, as the Census data excludes
vacant housing from the overall supply of
housing.
Another factor involved in the growth of
payments was an increase in capital gains,
which could be due to both the improved
performance of the stock market in calendar
year 2010 and real estate investment income
involving the purchase and resale of
foreclosed properties.

Table of Contents
This report has been
prepared for the Arizona
Legislature by the Joint
Legislative Budget
Committee Staff on
May 26, 2011.

Summary

Summary of Recent Agency Reports

Growth in April Revenues ......................................1

• Dept. of Commerce – Annual Report ............ 9

April Revenues.........................................................2

• DPS –Photo Enforcement .................................. 9

Economic Indicators ..............................................5

• State Parks Board – Surcharge Fund ............... 9
• DPS – GITEM Quarterly Report .......................... 9

April Spending ...................................................... 10

2

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MAY 2011

April Revenues
Table 1

General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions)

April
Year-to-Date

Year-to-date,
[Individual

FY 2011
Collections
$ 827.0
$ 6,656.6

Contracting. For the past 3 months, Restaurant
& Bar collections have also exceeded
Contracting.

Table 2 displays the April growth rates for the
largest categories.

As indicated in Table 3 below, withholding
grew by 7.7% in April for a year-to-date
increase of 6.0%. For several months this
increase was assumed to be due to changes
in the state withholding rates last July. (See
the August MFH for additional information.)
April refunds, however, have only grown by
0.9%, which seems to indicate that while some
overwithholding may have occurred, overall
liability growth has far outpaced that factor.

Table 2

Sales Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

grown 16.3%
and are $191.2
million above
forecast
through April.”

Difference
From FY 2010
$ 146.5
$ 537.5

Sales Tax collections were $387.9 million in April.
Excluding the $77.1 million from the temporary
1-cent increase, collections were $310.8 million,
or (2.7)% below April 2010. This decline,
however, is due more to technical adjustments
in the prior year than economic conditions. In
April of last year, a one-time $20 million Use Tax
deposit and a large shift of prior collections
from the Retail to the Communications
subcategory overstated General Fund sales
tax collection. Excluding these adjustments,
this April’s collection would have been about a
5.5% increase over the prior year.

Income Tax]
revenues have

Difference From
Jan. Forecast
$ 86.1
$ 194.6

Retail
Contracting
Utilities
Use
Restaurant & Bar

April
36.2%
8.4%
(2.5)%
(58.1)%
3.3%

YTD
6.0%
(6.6)%
0.6%
(10.0)%
3.2%

Retail and contracting together account for
about 60% of all sales tax revenues. This
month’s large swing in Retail (as well as a large
swing in Use Tax) is explained by the prior year
adjustment discussed above. Contracting had
another strong month compared to April of last
year; however, losses earlier in the year
continue to weigh down the year-to-date
growth.
Historically, Contracting has been the second
largest category. Since FY 2007, however,
Contracting revenues have declined by over
60%. FY 2010 was the first time in at least the
past 20 years that Contracting slipped from the
second position, falling just short of Utilities.
Since the start of FY 2011, Utilities collections
have exceeded Contracting 6 of the 10
months, making the year-to-date Utilities
collections $34.9 million, or 11.0% greater than

Including the 1-cent increase, year-to-date
collections were $20.9 million above the
forecast.
Individual Income Tax net revenues were
$306.0 million in April. Collections were $118.8
million above the forecast. Year-to-date,
revenues have grown 16.3% and are $191.2
million above forecast through April.

The most significant April growth occurred in
quarterly and final payments which grew by
25.4% in April compared to last year. Year-todate, these payments are up 12.7%
compared to the prior year.
While the detailed data will not be available
for some time, this year’s increase appears to
be related to lower itemized deductions and
significantly higher capital gains.
Based on DOR data, itemized deductions are
down by (26)% compared to the same period
(January through April) last year. This may be
due to a decline in the use of the mortgage
interest deduction (which historically
comprises 40% to 45% of total deductions).
The state’s high foreclosure rate may be
reducing home ownership and eliminating
the mortgage interest deduction for some
taxpayers.
Capital gains appear to be another factor
behind April’s surge in tax payments. One
source of this growth may be real estate

3

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MAY 2011

April Revenues

“The improved
performance of

investors realizing a significant amount of profit
from reselling foreclosed properties at higher
prices.

of Health Services to defray the General Fund
cost of operating those programs, along with
funding the Early Childhood Development
and Health Board.

In addition, the improved performance of the
stock market during calendar 2010 may have
generated substantial capital gains, which in
turn raised the level of April tax payments. The
Investment Company Institute, a national
association of investment companies serving
over 90 million shareholders, reports an almost 3fold increase in mutual fund capital gains
distributions in 2010 compared to the prior year.

Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) revenues
consist of gasoline and use fuel (diesel) tax,
motor carrier fees (commercial carriers),
vehicle license tax and registration fees, and
various other fees. HURF collections of $110.7
million in April were up $0.9 million or 0.8%
compared to April of last year. Year-to-date,
revenues have grown 1.5%.

Federal income tax data also shows a
significant increase in estimated and final tax
payments, which further suggests a nationwide
trend of increasing capital gains being reported
by taxpayers.
Table 3

Individual Income Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

the stock market
during calendar
2010 may have

(Continued)

Withholding
Estimated +
Final Payments
Refunds

April
7.7%
25.4%
0.9%

YTD
6.0%
12.7%
(7.3)%

generated
substantial
capital gains,
which in turn
raised the level
of April tax
payments.”

Corporate Income Tax net collections were $83.9
million in April, or $22.4 million above the prior
year. Collections were $(12.9) million below the
forecast. Year-to-date through April, revenues
are up 50.6% and (3.1)% below forecast.
The Lottery Commission reports that April ticket
sales were $51.5 million, which is $(0.3) million, or
(0.6)%, below sales in the prior year. Year-todate, ticket sales are $485.9 million, which is
6.2% above last year’s sales. The General Fund
share of sales has increased significantly more
than overall sales, however, due to changes in
the distribution formula.
Non-General Fund
Tobacco Tax revenues were $30.1 million in
April. Collections were down (0.6)% compared
to the prior year, but were $2.8 million above
the budget estimate for the month. Year-todate collections are down (3.3)% and are $2.4
million above the budget estimate.
Less than 10% of tobacco taxes are deposited
directly into the General Fund. The remainder
primarily goes to AHCCCS and the Department

4

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MAY 2011
Table 4

General Fund Revenue:
Change from Previous Year and January Budget Forecast
April 2011
Current Month

FY 2011 YTD (Ten Months)

Change From
April 2010

Actual
April 2011

Percent

Amount

Change from
Forecast
Percent

Amount

April 2010

Actual
April 2011

Amount

Forecast
Percent

Percent

Amount

Taxes
Sales and Use w/o 1¢ *
Income - Individual
- Corporate
Property
Luxury - Tobacco
- Liquor
Insurance Premium
Estate
Other Taxes
Sub-Total Taxes

$310,811,250

($8,474,395)

306,040,868

94,606,424

44.7

118,774,466

63.4

83,904,743

22,375,447

36.4

(12,906,068)

917,314

(1,172)

(2.7) %

($14,860,108)

(4.6) %

$2,894,569,059

$37,105,050

2,310,392,453

324,618,406

16.3

1.3 %

191,238,016

9.0

137,207,698

50.6

(12,870,710)

(3.1)

(13.3)

408,423,368

(0.1)

117,314

14.7

13,756,480

(226,038)

(1.6)

341,129

14.3

20,760,416

(550,066)

(2.6)

2,732,746

702,712

34.6

$8,785,634

222,413

0.3 %

1.6

(2,823,768)

(12.0)
14.2

2,921,397

792,325

37.2

(58,236)

(2.0)

24,884,383

1,002,415

4.2

3,097,995

41,029,360

157,035

0.4

(770,640)

(1.8)

314,315,675

7,110,130

2.3

1,183,819

0.4

0

25,833

(100.0)

--

437,372

78,377

21.8

0

0.0

(12,579)

(14.2)

(37.8)

2,063,150

668,343

47.9

808,177

64.4

$5,989,602,356

$507,014,315

76,144
$748,433,822

$110,171,629

17.3 %

0
(46,356)
$90,591,501

13.8 %

9.2 %

$189,641,577

3.3 %

Other Revenue
Lottery

7,320,740

3,170,440

76.4

46.4

42,774,189

12,658,989

42.0

5,942,559

License, Fees and Permits

1,715,461

(1,087,876)

(38.8)

(784,539)

(31.4)

22,918,522

593,268

2.7

1,959,378

9.3

--

(288,722)

(99.6)

1,889,579

1,351,640

251.3

(1,530,422)

(44.7)

Interest
Sales and Services
Other Miscellaneous
Disproportionate Share
Transfers and Reimbursements
Sub-Total Other Revenue
TOTAL BASE REVENUE

1,278
1,456,488
(501,231)
0
120,035

45,106

2,320,740

16.1

(259,897)

(15.1)

(43,512)

(2.9)

23,265,585

(707,226)

(3.0)

3,345,918

16.8

(1,433,873)

--

(2,201,231)

--

18,733,007

(9,623,678)

(33.9)

(4,109,156)

(18.0)

0
(54,618)

-(31.3)

10,112,771

379,282

3.9 %

$758,546,593

$110,550,911

17.1 %

--

27,146,306

27,146,306

(3,379,965)

0

(96.6)

15,219,639

(18,860,704)

(4,377,229)

(30.2) %

151,946,827

12,558,596

9.0 %

12.8 %

$6,141,549,183

$519,572,911

9.2 %

$86,214,272

-(55.3)

0
(12,760,434)
(7,152,156)
$182,489,421

0.0
(45.6)
(4.5) %
3.1 %

Other Adjustments
Urban Revenue Sharing

(39,500,543)

12,886,509

--

1¢ TPT Increase*

77,108,546

77,108,546

--

Budget Plan Transfers

30,890,463

(54,011,318)

Leaseback Proceeds

0

0

68,498,466

35,983,737

110.7 %

$827,045,059

$146,534,648

21.5 %

Highway User Revenue Fund

$110,715,000

$870,000

Tobacco Tax (All Funds Total)

$30,057,747

($187,675)

Sub-Total Other Adjustments
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE

0
(75,566)

(63.6)

0

--

0
(75,566)

0.0

(395,005,431)

128,865,090

--

0

0.0

(0.1)

691,673,987

691,673,987

--

12,146,458

1.8

0.0

218,335,809

(67,152,680)

(23.5)

0

0.0

0

(735,419,300)

(100.0)

0

--

--

(0.1) %

515,004,365

17,967,096

3.6 %

12,146,458

2.4 %

$86,138,706

11.6 %

$6,656,553,548

$537,540,007

8.8 %

$194,635,879

3.0 %

0.8 %

$11,031,642

11.1 %

$1,007,855,000

$15,122,000

1.5 %

$12,040,369

1.2 %

(0.6) %

$2,815,324

10.3 %

$271,582,902

($3,313,567)

(1.2) %

$2,408,806

0.9 %

Non-General Funds

__________
* Sales and Use line excludes revenue from the temporary 1¢ increase approved by the voters in May 2010. That revenue is shown under One-Time Revenues. Total April collections including the 1¢ increase were
$387.9 million. This amount is $68.6 million, or 21.5%, above April 2010 and $(14.9) million, or (3.7)%, below forecast. Year to date, total collections including the 1¢ increase were $3.59 billion. This amount is $728.8
million, or 25.5%, above April 2010 and $20.9 million, or 0.6%, above forecast.

5

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MAY 2011

Economic Indicators
NATIONAL

“April marked
the 4th
consecutive
month with yearover-year growth
in payroll
employment.
There were
10,800 or 0.4%
more payroll
jobs in the state
in April than one
year ago.”

The Conference Board’s U.S. Index of Leading
Economic Indicators fell by (0.3)% in April, and
marked the first such decline since June 2010.
April’s positive contributions from the three
financial components of the index (money
supply, interest rate spread, and stock market
performance), along with consumer
expectations, were more than offset by an
increase in initial jobless claims, a slower pace
of supplier deliveries, and a decrease in
building permits. Although April represented
the first decline of the index in the last 10
months, analysts generally believe that the
significant increase in payroll employment
over the last 4 months suggests that the
economy is continuing to expand.
Consumer prices, as measured by the U.S.
Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose by 0.4% in
April, following a 0.5% increase in both
February and March. These price increases
come on top of the 0.4% CPI increases in
December and January. The rise in consumer
prices over the last 5 months is primarily due to
energy and food. In April alone, higher
gasoline prices accounted for half of the
monthly CPI increase of 0.4%. Although higher
energy and food prices are being passed
through to consumers, core inflation, which
excludes these items, remains muted.
Compared to 12 months prior, core inflation
has risen by 1.3%. Any price pressure in the
short term is expected to come from higher
commodity prices as opposed to rising labor
costs.
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA)
reported that Semiconductor Billings (3-month
moving average) in the U.S. were $4.69 billion
in March, a 1.7% gain over the prior month and
a year-over-year increase of 18.2%. According
to SIA, the growth in semiconductor sales in the
first quarter of 2011 was primarily due to
increased consumer and business demand for
high-quality electronic products and the
increased application of integrated circuits
throughout most industries. The fallout from
Japan’s natural disaster in March does not
appear to have materially affected
semiconductor sales.
ARIZONA
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s
coincident index gauges current economic
activity in each state. The index combines 4
indicators: employment, average hours

worked in manufacturing, unemployment rate,
and inflation-adjusted wages.
Arizona’s coincident index rose for the 8th
consecutive month in April. The month-overmonth increase was 0.4%, which matched the
national average. When compared to the
same month in the prior year, Arizona’s
coincident index was up by 1.3%, which was
significantly below the national average of
2.8%. The Arizona coincident index is currently
more than (13)% below its peak reading in
August of 2007, almost 3 times the national
average decline for the comparable period.
See Tracking Arizona’s Recovery for additional
historical information.
As described in more detail below, April’s
release of economic data showed a mixed
picture for the state, with some indicators
improving while others were worsening. For
example, payroll employment increased and
the unemployment rate declined at the same
time as unemployment insurance (both firsttime and continued) claims rose. In addition,
after two consecutive quarters of improved
consumer sentiments, the latest survey
conducted in May suggests that Arizona
residents are once again becoming less
confident about the state of the economy.
Employment
According to most recent Arizona Workforce
Employment Report, the state added 17,200
nonfarm jobs in April. This represents a monthover-month increase of 0.7%, or almost twice
the average gain for April in the 10-year
period prior to the last recession. All but one
of the state’s major industry sectors (financial
activities) expanded their payrolls in April.
April marked the 4th consecutive month with
year-over-year growth in payroll employment.
There were 10,800, or 0.4% more, payroll jobs
in the state in April than one year ago. This
increase in nonfarm employment is entirely
due to the private sector, which added
18,200 jobs between April 2010 and April 2011
at the same time as the government sector
reduced its workforce by (7,400) positions.
Most of the gains in the private sector are for
service-related jobs, especially in the health
care and accommodation and food services
industries.
The construction sector added 3,900 jobs in
April, the largest monthly gain since June
2007. A few more months of data will be

6

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MAY 2011

Economic Indicators
required before we will know whether April
marked the beginning of a turnaround in the
construction industry, or merely represented a
statistical anomaly, as construction
employment tends to fluctuate. The
construction sector as a whole employed
(2,000) fewer persons in April 2011 than one
year ago.
The turnaround in the manufacturing sector
appears to be on a more solid footing. The
industry has seen employment gains in 6 of
the last 7 months. There were 1,700, or 1.1%,
more manufacturing jobs in the state in April
2011 than in the same month last year. All the
subsectors of the industry, with the exception
for aerospace production, have expanded
their payrolls over the last 12 months.
“Arizona’s
seasonally
adjusted
unemployment
rate fell for the
second
consecutive
month. The
state’s jobless
rate of 9.3% in
April was the
lowest since April
2009.”

Although the state’s job market appears to
be on the mend following the deepest and
longest recession in post-war era, there is still
significant ground to be made up. The state
had (302,400) fewer jobs last month then at
the outset of the recession in December 2007.
This represents a net job loss of (11.1)%. See
Tracking Arizona’s Recovery for additional
historical information.
Besides the job gains reported from the April
payroll survey, there were also good news from
the household survey, as it showed that
Arizona’s seasonally adjusted unemployment
rate fell for the second consecutive month.
The state’s jobless rate of 9.3% in April was the
lowest since April 2009. The unemployment
rate has been trending down ever since it
peaked at 10.4% in December 2009.
The goods news related to payroll employment
and unemployment in April was to some extent
tempered by increased claims for
unemployment insurance. First, April had the
largest number of first-time claims for jobless
benefits since July 2010. The federal Bureau of
Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that 29,838
Arizona residents filed initial claims for
unemployment insurance in April, a 29.5%
increase over the prior month. While this was a
significant increase, it should be noted that
April historically has a large increase in first-time
claims. The average monthly increase for
April in the 10-year period prior to the recession
was about 5,000. Moreover, even with the
large increase in April, initial claims remain
(6.2)% below last year’s level.
Claims peaked in April 2009 when more than
41,000 individuals filed for initial jobless
benefits. See Tracking Arizona’s Recovery, for

(Continued)

additional historical information.
In addition to the increase in first-time claims for
unemployment insurance, April also saw an
increase in the total number of claimants
receiving jobless benefits. BLS reported that
the state’s Unemployment Compensation
Fund paid out benefits to a total of 65,434
persons in April, a 4.3% increase over March.
While this figure was below that reported for
the same month in the previous two years, it still
remained more than 100% above prerecession levels. This suggests that the state’s
labor market is still far from a full recovery.
Another factor that may slow the state’s
recovery is declining consumer confidence.
The Behavior Research Center reported that its
May survey showed that consumer confidence
fell to 51.9 in May from January’s reading of
62.8. Most of this decline was due to a
decidedly more pessimistic outlook over the
next 6 months. A smaller percentage of the
survey respondents expected employment
opportunities and family income to improve in
May compared to January. Plans of making a
new car purchase within the next 6 months fell
markedly. Rising gas prices and a still sluggish
job market are believed to be largely
responsible for the more pessimistic outlook
among consumers. If this trend continues in
the coming months, it could result in less
consumer spending and thus a slower
economic recovery than desirable.
Housing
In April, the number of new Maricopa County
foreclosure notices decreased (22.4)% from
March levels to 4,418. The number of
Maricopa County pending foreclosures
decreased in April. The April total of 32,203 is
(37.4)% below the peak in December 2009
(51,466). See Tracking Arizona’s Recovery for
additional historical information.
While foreclosure notices and pending
foreclosures continue their decline from
recent highs, they continue to be a major
influence on existing home sales and the
respective prices. In the Metropolitan Phoenix
area in April, there were a total of 10,265
existing single-family home sales that resulted
in a median resale home price of $125,000.
Relative to the prior year, the number of sales
is up 0.1%, while prices are (15.5)% lower. Of
the existing sales, 36.5%, or 3,745 were
foreclosures.
The number of new single family building
permits averaged 915 for the 3-month period

7

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MAY 2011

Economic Indicators
ending in April. This was a 14.3% increase over
the previous 3-month period (through March),
but was (24.0)% below the same period last
year.
State Agency Data
In May AHCCCS caseloads equaled 1.35
million members, a 0.8% increase over the prior
month. AHCCCS caseloads are currently
(0.8)% below May 2010 levels. Total enrollment
reached its peak in June 2010 and has
generally trended downward since then.
“In April, there
were a total 1.1
million food
stamp recipients
in the state.”

There were 41,781 TANF recipients in the state
in April, a monthly caseload increase of
(0.9)%. Year-over-year, the number of TANF
recipients has declined by (45.2)%. This
decline is the result of changes to the
statutory lifetime limit a person may receive
cash assistance. Beginning in July 2010,
recipients could only receive benefits for a
maximum of 36 months in a lifetime. The FY
2012 budget further reduces this limit to 24
months. Previously, the maximum had been
60 months. The FY 2011 budget assumed
caseloads of approximately 70,000 in FY 2011.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance
Program (SNAP), formerly known as Food
Stamps, provides assistance to low-income
households to purchase food. In April, there
were a total 1.1 million food stamp recipients
in the state, a 1.2% increase over the prior
month. Compared to the same month last
year, food stamp participation was up by
2.6%. The number of food stamp recipients
began increasing steadily in July 2007, after
several years in the 550,000 to 575,000 range.
The 3-month average count of the Department
of Correction’s (ADC) inmate population
declined to 40,131 inmates between March
and May 2011. Relative to the prior period, the
population has increased by 61 inmates, and
compared to a year ago the population has
declined by (376) inmates.

(Continued)

8

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MAY 2011

Economic Indicators

(Continued)

Table 5

ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Indicator
Arizona
- Unemployment Rate (SA)
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Unemployment Insurance Claimants
- Non-Farm Employment - Total
Manufacturing
Construction
- Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing
- Contracting Tax Receipts (3-month average)
- Retail Sales Tax Receipts (3-month average)
- Residential Building Permits (3-month moving average)
Single-family
Multi-unit
- Greater Phoenix Existing Home Sales
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Greater Phoenix Median Resale Home Price
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Foreclosure Activity, Maricopa County
Foreclosure Notices (Notice of Trustee’s Sales Recorded)
Pending Foreclosures (Active Notices)
Greater Phoenix S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
(Jan. 2000 = 100)
- Arizona Months Supply of Housing, (ARMLS)
- Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers
- Arizona Average Natural Gas Price
($ per thousand cubic feet)
- Arizona Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Arizona Coincident Index (July 1992 = 100)
- Arizona Personal Income
- Arizona Population
- AHCCCS Recipients
- TANF Recipients
- SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients
- ADC Inmate Growth (3-month average)
- Probation Caseload (Adult/Juvenile)
Non-Maricopa
Maricopa County
United States
- Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2005 dollars, SAAR)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Leading Indicators Index (2004 = 100)
- U.S. Semiconductor Billings (3-month moving average)
- Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100)
*Adjusted for 1¢ sales tax

Time Period

Current Value

Change From
Prior Period

Change From
Prior Year

April
April
April
April
April
April
April
Feb-Apr
Feb-Apr

9.3%
29,838
65,434
2.41 million
149,800
109,500
40.7
$30.0 million
$143.4 million

(0.2)%
29.5%
4.3%
0.7%
0.5%
3.7%
0.5%
(3.7)%
(5.3)%

(0.8)%
(6.2)%
(25.1)%
0.4%
1.1%
(1.8)%
3.6%
10.8%*
18.1%*

Feb-Apr
Feb-Apr

915
186

14.3%
(5.6)%

(24.0)%
69.4%

April
April

10,265
1,675

(7.1)%
(6.2)%

0.1%
(0.3)%

April
April

$125,000
$85,000

(3.0)%
0.0%

(15.5)%
(16.7)%

April
April
February

4,418
32,203
100.81

(22.4)%
(9.3)%
(0.7)%

(37.5)%
(31.2)%
(8.4)%

April
February
February

3.7 months
2.98 million
$6.23

2nd Quarter 2011
April
4th Quarter 2010
April 1, 2010
May
April
April
Mar-May

51.9
180.02
$226.7 billion
6.39 million
1,348,143
41,781
1,080,247
40,131

(17.4)%
0.4%
1.1%
N/A
0.8%
(0.9)%
1.2%
61 inmates

4.6%
1.3%
3.3%
N/A
(0.8)%
(45.2)%
2.6%
(376) inmates

March
March

19,265
26,319

188
253

(413)
(2,160)

1st Quarter 2011
(Advance Estimate)
April
April
Jan-Mar
April

$13.4 trillion

2.3%

1.8%

65.4
114.0
$4.69 billion
224.43

2.5%
(0.3)%
1.7%
0.4%

13.3%
5.0%
18.2%
3.1%

(0.1) months
(8.7)%
(3.3)%

(0.8) months
2.6%
(14.0)%

9

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MAY 2011

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
Department of Commerce – Annual
Report on the Healthy Forest
Enterprise Incentives Program –
Pursuant to A.R.S. § 41-1516 I the
Department of Commerce is
required to report on the Healthy
Forest Enterprise Incentives Program
regarding the: 1) quantity and
measured weight of qualifying
forest products reported; 2) number
of new full-time employees hired in
qualified employment positions; 3)
number of all full-time employees
employed in qualified employment
positions. In calendar year 2010 the
total weight of qualified harvest,
processed or transported forest
products was 144,977 tons.
Additionally, none of the
companies participated in the tax
credit portion of the program.
The Healthy Forest Enterprise
Incentives Program allows
businesses primarily engaged in the
harvesting, initial processing or
transporting of forest products in
Arizona to exempt qualified
purchases from Use and Transaction
Privilege Taxes, a 50% reduction in
the Use Fuel Tax, a reduction in the
assessment ratio of personal and
real property from 25% to 5% and
an income tax credit of up to $3,000
per employee on new jobs created.
(Eric Billings)
Department of Public Safety –
Quarterly Report on Photo
Enforcement – Pursuant to a
footnote in the General
Appropriation Act, the Department
of Public Safety (DPS) is required to
report quarterly on the Photo
Enforcement program in FY 2011.
Since the inception of the program
in September 2008, a total of
1,695,625 Notices of Violation
(NOVs) and citations have been
issued and 453,587, or 26.8%, have
been paid.
DPS ended the Photo Radar
Program effective July 15. During
the third quarter of FY 2011, 1,440
citations that were issued prior to

July 15 were paid.
The NOVs and citations issued by
the Photo Enforcement Program
generated $507,500 in revenue for
the third quarter of FY 2011 and
$77.8 million since the program’s
inception. The General Fund
received $3.0 million in the third
quarter, which includes balances
from revenue in prior quarters, and
$47.1 million since the program’s
start. (Eric Billings)
State Parks Board – Report on
Reservation Surcharge Fund
Revenue – Pursuant to a FY 2011
General Appropriation Act
footnote, the State Parks Board is
submitting a report on Reservation
Surcharge Fund revenue in excess
of its appropriation of $207,600 and
the intended use of these
additional monies. The footnote
stipulates that during FY 2011, all
Reservation Surcharge Fund
receipts received by the Parks
Board in excess of $207,400 are
appropriated to the fund.
However, prior to expenditure of
any excess revenue, the Parks
Board must report the intended use
of these monies to the JLBC.
The State Parks Board estimates that
the Reservation Surcharge Fund will
generate additional receipts of
about $192,400, or $400,000 in total
revenue, due to the
implementation of a new electronic
reservation system. Since the new
system is also creating additional
expenses, the Parks Board intends to
use the additional revenues for
administering and maintaining the
reservation system. The Parks Board
expects to spend $289,900 from the
fund, plus transfer $102,400 to the
General Fund for a required fund
sweep. (Art Smith)
Department of Public Safety –
Quarterly Report on GIITEM –
Pursuant to the General
Appropriation Act, the Department
of Public Safety (DPS) is required to
report quarterly on the Gang and

Immigration Intelligence Team
Enforcement Mission (GIITEM).
Through the third quarter of FY 2011,
DPS spent or encumbered $6.1
million of the $9.2 million
appropriation for the direct DPS
immigration staff. In terms of local
law enforcement grants, DPS spent
$2.3 million of the non-lapsing FY
2010 $2.6 million appropriation and
$467,100 of the $2.6 million FY 2011
appropriation for a total of $2.7
million. The $2.6 million in new FY
2011 local law enforcement grants
will be available for use through FY
2012.
The $2.7 million has been distributed
as follows in Table 6: (Eric Billings)
Table 6
FY 2011 GIITEM Local Illegal Immigration
Enforcement Grant Expenditures
State Organization
Maricopa County Sheriff

$1,200,000

Pima County Sheriff

500,000

Phoenix Police Department

390,500

Other Agencies

398,000

Support

163,000

Total

$2,651,500

10

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MAY 2011

April Spending
“April 2011
spending of
$621.7 million
was $313.6
million higher

April 2011 General Fund spending was $621.7
million. April expenditures were higher than
the prior year in part due to differences in the
timing of the K-12 rollover and federal
stabilization act monies received last year.

•

FY 2011 Spending
April 2011 spending of $621.7 million was
$313.6 million higher than April 2010 (See
Table 7).

•

than April 2010.”

•

In April, the Arizona Department of
Education spending was $251.1 million
higher than the prior year. April
expenditures were higher compared to
the prior year due to differences in the
timing of the K-12 rollover and federal
stabilization act monies received last
year.
University spending was $56.2 million in
April, or $55.3 million higher than the prior

year. The increased expenditure amount
reflects the rollover being spread out over
the course of the fiscal year.
Department of Public Safety (DPS)
spending was $5.7 million higher than
April of the prior year. The increased
expenditures amount is due to DPS frontloading their General Fund expenditures
in the prior year since they were unable
to access Highway Fund monies until later
in the year because of the delayed
implementation of the Criminal Justice
Budget Reconciliation Bill.

Table 7
General Fund Spending ($ in Millions)

Agency
AHCCCS
Corrections
Economic
Security
Education
Health Services
Public Safety
School Facilities
Board
Universities
Leaseback Debt
Service
Other
Total

April 11

Change
from
April 10

Year to
Date

28.2
84.6
24.4

8.8
1.4
(6.9)

1,172.0
735.9
517.0

95.8
15.8
6.7

339.6
10.2
2.3
0.2

251.1
(2.7)
5.7
(0.4)

3,020.2
412.2
37.3
67.3

(128.0)
(56.4)
(1.4)
(37.3)

56.2
-

55.3
-

777.5
52.1

(5.5)
52.1

76.0
621.7

1.3
313.6

524.4
7,315.9

(45.0)
(103.2)

YTD Change
from FY 10

11

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MAY 2011

Table 8

Agency
Department of Administration
Department of Admin Sale/Leaseback D/S
Office of Administrative Hearings
Department of Agriculture
AHCCCS
Arizona Commission on the Arts
Arizona Exposition and State Fair Board
Attorney General
AZ Capital Post Conviction Public
Defender
State Board of Charter Schools
Board of Chiropractic Examiners
Department of Commerce
Community Colleges
Corporation Commission
Department of Corrections
Board of Cosmetology
AZ Criminal Justice Commission
AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind
Department of Economic Security
Department of Education
DEMA
Department. of Environmental Quality
DEQ – WQARF
Office of Equal Opportunity
State Board of Equalization
Board of Executive Clemency
Department of Financial Institutions
Department of Fire, Bldg, Life Safety
Office of the State Forrester
Board of Funeral Directors
Arizona Geological Survey
Government Information Tech.
Governor
Gov. - OSPB
Department of Health Services
Arizona Historical Society
Prescott Historical Society of AZ
Independent Redistricting Comm.
Commission on Indian Affairs
Department of Insurance
Judiciary
Supreme Court
Superior Court
Court of Appeals
Department of Juvenile Corrections

General Fund Spending
($ in Thousands)
Change from
April 11
April 10
1,603.3
(806.3)
136.4
(6.9)
523.4
27.2
28,211.4
8,811.9
51.1
(86.7)
1,088.1
(129.6)
70.7
(34.2)

Year-to-Date
17,788.4
52,066.9
801.7
7,112.2
1,171,992.6
546.5
13,882.4
598.7

45.0
121.3
33,106.6
44.0
84,627.2
3,691.9
24,443.1
339,642.8
534.3
8.7
22.0
48.1
153.2
107.0
1,550.4
28.4
26.1
377.1
152.6
10,238.0
168.6
51.5
3.7
3.9
356.2

7.2
69.7
(27.6)
1,429.5
813.5
(6,910.8)
251,051.0
(763.0)
(613.4)
(4.4)
(82.4)
9.9
(9.5)
27.4
1,550.4
(30.8)
(11.1)
190.3
14.9
(2,739.3)
(153.8)
19.3
3.7
0.6
(70.3)

597.1
3,017.9
132,426.3
511.3
735,872.9
19,782.3
517,045.6
3,020,178.9
8,989.4
0.6
7,000.0
147.2
489.9
730.3
2,252.9
1,749.1
3,546.6
569.6
407.3
5,257.4
1,566.9
412,182.2
4,939.9
615.3
4.4
50.4
4,763.1

(2.2)
(148.0)
549.7
25.9
15,751.9
(252.0)
4.6
1,596.7
6,964.7
(128,039.4)
747.6
(4,740.2)
(23.0)
(91.7)
(67.6)
(389.6)
(158.6)
3,546.6
(100.0)
(96.3)
18.7
(846.1)
(117.8)
(56,368.9)
1,419.5
40.5
(21.7)
(29.9)
(159.1)

1,255.2
9,768.3
1,251.8
3,005.0

205.2
(764.5)
(235.0)
(1,004.2)

17,266.4
65,572.2
12,557.5
43,415.6

2,670.9
(8,490.4)
527.5
(11,357.5)

YTD Change from
FY 10
1,850.7
52,066.9
(13.3)
(222.2)
95,755.1
(247.6)
(400.0)
(1,636.8)
20.1

12

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – MAY 2011

Agency
State Land Department
Law Enforcement Merit System
Legislature
Auditor General
House of Representatives
Joint Legislative Budget Comm.
Legislative Council
Senate
Department of Liquor Licenses
Board of Medical Student Loans
Mine Inspector
Department of Mines & Mineral Resources
Nav. Streams & Adjudication
OSHA
Arizona State Parks Board
Pioneers’ Home
Board of Psychologist Examiners
Comm. for Postsecondary Ed.
Department of Public Safety
Arizona Department of Racing
Radiation Regulatory Agency
Arizona Rangers Pension
Real Estate Department
Department of Revenue
School Facilities Board
Secretary of State
Tax Appeals Board
Office of Tourism
Department of Transportation
State Treasurer
Universities
Board of Regents
Arizona State University
Northern Arizona University
University of Arizona
Veterinary Medical Examiners Board
Department of Veteran Services
Department of Water Resources
Department of Weights & Measures
Other
Grand Total

April 11
502.9
5.2

Change from
April 10
(582.6)
(7.8)

Year-to-Date
2,976.6
60.2

YTD Change from
FY 10
(8,749.2)
(7.1)

1,091.7
858.6
115.0
287.4
630.5
81.8
6.0
86.4
609.9
2,263.1
144.5
283.2
131.0
6,806.8
220.6
1,747.9
15.6
14.0
-

44.2
(0.3)
(27.9)
(6.2)
31.1
29.0
(23.7)
(213.9)
86.4
(293.2)
5,673.1
(294.1)
65.1
(1.3)
(1.7)
2,953.4
(425.4)
983.0
(6.9)
4.0
(192.1)

14,430.9
10,155.1
1,718.2
3,938.7
7,201.8
3.3
360.7
945.0
815.8
112.6
20,000.0
1,267.6
25.0
1,220.8
37,333.5
3,685.3
1,314.5
8.3
2,339.8
38,118.1
67,314.5
13,860.1
215.4
51.4
-

1,960.1
(349.9)
(228.9)
(321.9)
(229.0)
(744.4)
(441.2)
(123.1)
185.0
0.5
(14.4)
(2,114.2)
1,267.6
(275.0)
(2,110.2)
(1,367.1)
(819.8)
25.1
(3.4)
(347.0)
7,718.9
(37,316.2)
2,427.4
(5.3)
(200.0)
(1.4)
(2,236.9)

80.8
25,400.9
8,551.9
22,135.0
1,161.1
362.0
74.3
1,476.4
621,660.7

(90.0)
25,400.9
7,893.6
22,135.0
392.8
(691.2)
(92.5)
1,092.9
313,581.5

16,636.6
344,586.5
116,012.9
300,279.4
10,460.6
5,551.9
907.4
3,711.9
7,315,916.3

(3,455.7)
(648.2)
(868.3)
(553.9)
(250.0)
2,761.6
(8,467.5)
(138.0)
(16,743.4)
(103,246.7)