JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights 1716 W. Adams Phoenix, AZ 85007 Phone: (602) 926-5491 Fax: (602) 926-5416 www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm “November was the fourth consecutive month of yearover-year growth in General Fund revenue collections.” December 2010 Summary November was the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year growth in General Fund revenue collections. General Fund revenues totaled $577.0 million. Excluding the temporary 1-cent sales tax, these collections were 17.9% above last year. While the November results were clearly positive, 17.9% growth overestimates real economic activity for several reasons. First, the state incurred extraordinarily large Corporate Income Tax refunds in November 2009. While refunds remained higher than normal in November 2010, the revenue loss was significantly less than the historic low of November 2009. Second, individual income tax withholding grew by 8.4% in November, which is not supported by Arizona’s current level of job and wage growth. As we have reported in earlier months, taxpayers appear to be overwithholding since the withholding tables changed in July. Relative to the budget forecast, some of these gains – like the recovery in Corporate collections – were expected. As a result, collections were only above the forecast by $7.2 million in November. For the 5 months year-to-date, revenues are $(34.0) million below forecast. Fiscal year-to-date, General Fund revenues of $3.3 billion have been offset by $4.5 billion in spending. Due to a relatively even cash flow in November, the state's operating fund balance stayed almost unchanged at $488.1 million at the end of November. In comparison, the state was borrowing over $500 million last November. The state pays its bills out of the operating fund balance, which consists of General Fund monies and certain dedicated funds. Final FY 2010 Ending Balance The General Accounting Office released its Annual Financial Report for FY 2010 on December 7th. The report showed that the General Fund ending balance for FY 2010 was $(5.7) million. FY 2010 is the second consecutive year of a negative ending balance, although the FY 2009 shortfall of $(481.7) million was much more substantial. While the state is generally thought to have a balanced budget requirement, the Arizona Constitution does permit the state to address any year-end shortfall in the next fiscal year. As a result, the FY 2010 shortfall will need to be resolved during FY 2011. In comparison, November 2010 General Fund spending was $551.8 million, or $(134.1) million below last year. November expenditures were lower than the prior year primarily due to the timing of Department of Education spending reductions compared to last year. Table of Contents This report has been prepared for the Arizona Legislature by the Joint Legislative Budget Committee Staff on December 22, 2010. Summary Summary of Recent Agency Reports • Final FY 2010 Ending Balance ........................... 1 • DES – Domestic Violence Funding................... 8 November Revenues ............................................. 2 • Governor’s Council on Workforce Policy – Economic Indicators.............................................. 4 JLBC Meeting........................................................... 7 JCCR Meeting ......................................................... 7 Annual Report ..................................................... 8 • DPS – GIITEM Progress......................................... 8 • DPS – Photo Radar.............................................. 8 • DOR – Annual Enforcement Goals .................. 8 November Spending............................................ 10 2 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2010 November Revenues Table 1 November Year-to-Date General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions) FY 2011 Difference From Difference Collections Budget Forecast From FY 2010 $ 577.0 $ 7.2 $ 159.3 $ 3,251.2 $ (34.0) $ 574.9 Sales Tax collections were $353.1 million in November. Excluding the $66.7 million from the temporary 1-cent increase, collections were $286.5 million, or 3.8% above November 2009. November is the second consecutive month to show positive year-over-year growth, which has not happened since August 2007. “Given the relatively flat growth in wages and salaries, however, it is increasingly While positive, collections lagged projections. Including the 1-cent increase, collections were $(5.9) million below the forecast. The year-todate loss is $(94.7) million. Table 2 displays the November growth rates for the largest categories Table 2 Sales Tax Growth Rates Compared to Prior Year likely that taxpayers are over-withholding and some of [the growth in Individual Income Tax collections] will result in higher refunds in April.” Retail Contracting Utilities Use Restaurant & Bar November (0.1)% 3.8% 6.4% 21.2% 5.0% YTD (0.2)% (15.0)% 1.3% 1.5% 2.7% Retail and contracting together account for about 60% of all sales tax revenues. Retail collections were nearly flat compared to November of last year. Contracting was positive compared to November of last year. This is the first positive month for contracting since August 2007. Individual Income Tax net revenues were $266.2 million in November, or 14.9% above the prior year. Collections were $26.4 million above the forecast. Year-to-date, revenues have grown 10.3% and are $58.2 million above forecast through November. As indicated in Table 3 below, withholding tax payments increased by 8.4% in November, making 8 of the past 9 months positive. This increase continues to be difficult to interpret due to changes in the state withholding system. (See the August MFH for additional information.) Given the relatively flat growth in wages and salaries, however, it is increasingly likely that taxpayers are over-withholding and some of those gains will result in higher refunds in April. As a result, the Department of Revenue has further revised the withholding schedule by adding additional lower withholding options. These options will be available beginning January 1, 2011. Table 3 Individual Income Tax Growth Rates Compared to Prior Year Withholding Estimated + Final Payments Refunds November 8.4% (17.7)% (51.9)% YTD 5.1% (2.0)% (24.3)% Corporate Income Tax net collections were $(37.2) million in November, or $39.9 million more than the prior year. Collections were $(16.9) million below the forecast. Most of the growth over the prior November is due to lower refunds, which totaled $(45.6) million. In November of the prior year, refunds totaled $(93.9) million, which was the largest refund month on record (since 1994). Year-to-date through November, revenues are up 189.1% and are $10.0 million above forecast. The Lottery Commission reports that November ticket sales were $46.0 million, which is $3.3 million, or 7.7%, above sales in the prior year. Year-to-date, ticket sales are $215.5 million, which is 2.6% above last year’s sales. The General Fund share of sales has increased significantly more than sales, however, due to changes in the distribution formula. Non-General Fund Tobacco Tax revenues were $28.9 million in November. Collections were up 1.1% compared to the prior year, and were $0.8 million above the budget estimate for the month. Year-to-date collections are down (1.2)% and are $1.3 million above the budget estimate. 3 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2010 November Revenues (Continued) Less than 10% of tobacco taxes are deposited directly into the General Fund. The remainder primarily goes to AHCCCS and the Department of Health Services to defray the General Fund cost of operating those programs, along with funding the Early Childhood Development and Health Board. Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) revenues consist of gasoline and use fuel (diesel) tax, motor carrier fees (commercial carriers), vehicle license tax and registration fees, and various other fees. HURF collections of $96.1 million in November were up $0.9 million or 0.9% compared to November of last year. Year-to-date, revenues have grown 1.2%. Table 4 General Fund Revenue: Change from Previous Year and Enacted Budget Forecast November 2010 Current Month FY 2011 YTD (Five Months) Change From Actual November 2009 November 2010 Amount Change from Actual Forecast Percent Amount Percent November 2009 November 2010 Amount Forecast Percent Amount Percent Taxes Sales and Use w/o 1¢ * Income - Individual - Corporate $286,485,609 $10,491,181 266,193,368 34,587,420 (37,178,120) 39,874,746 3.8 % 14.9 -- $1,410,306,045 ($9,659,966) (0.7) % 26,391,723 $691,617 11.0 0.2 % 1,251,937,167 116,901,449 10.3 58,187,354 (16,913,020) 83.5 142,222,040 93,019,501 189.1 9,960,540 7.5 17.2 5,890,616 1,240,616 26.7 4.9 3,750,758 (653,069) (14.8) 550,758 Luxury - Tobacco 2,540,489 578,921 29.5 (141,511) (5.3) 10,581,779 (555,952) (5.0) (2,728,221) (20.5) 2,315,733 (60,837) (2.6) (346,267) (13.0) 10,552,193 (100,218) (0.9) (1,000,807) (8.7) (780,668) -- (628,059) -- 136,034,663 3,166,144 2.4 7,934,663 6.2 0 (39,278) (100.0) -- 437,372 103,988 31.2 437,372 23,982 (15,380) (39.1) (54.3) 243,548 (16,726) (6.4) (18,952) Insurance Premium Estate Other Taxes Sub-Total Taxes (628,059) $523,503,760 $83,983,036 Lottery 4,566,155 1,506,755 License, Fees and Permits 1,897,646 19.1 % 0 (28,518) $9,576,723 1.9 % $2,968,205,423 $202,520,492 (5.4) (3.9) % Property - Liquor (337,728) ($57,799,696) 7.3 % $16,212,869 -(7.2) 0.5 % Other Revenue Interest (132,566) 49.3 (633,845) (12.2) 17,522,419 5,216,119 42.4 (6.5) (102,354) (5.1) 11,244,892 386,434 3.6 744,892 -- 1,956,254 815,537 71.5 1,956,254 279,253 247,685 784.6 279,253 Sales and Services 2,550,658 1,613,266 172.1 550,658 Other Miscellaneous 2,352,494 (1,468,225) (38.4) Disproportionate Share Transfers and Reimbursements Sub-Total Other Revenue TOTAL BASE REVENUE 0 9,325,852 20,972,058 $544,475,818 0 (3,168,505) (1,401,590) $82,581,446 (2,847,506) -- 0 (25.4) 6,925,852 (3,277,581) (15.8) 7.1 -- 27.5 8,718,468 (2,064,241) (19.1) (2,781,533) (24.2) (54.8) 12,743,995 (8,055,952) (38.7) (11,356,005) (47.1) -- 0 288.6 13,367,053 (6.3) % 4,172,058 24.8 % 65,553,081 17.9 % $13,748,781 2.6 % $3,033,758,504 0 -- 0 (14,768,118) (52.5) 1,367,053 (18,470,220) (22.0) % $184,050,272 6.5 % (13,346,919) $2,865,950 -11.4 (16.9) % 0.1 % Other Adjustments Urban Revenue Sharing 1¢ TPT Increase* Budget Plan Transfers (39,500,543) 12,886,509 -- 66,653,153 66,653,153 -- 5,405,208 (2,805,453) 32,557,817 76,734,208 -- % $577,033,636 $159,315,655 38.1 % Highway User Revenue Fund $96,148,000 $881,000 0.9 % Tobacco Tax (All Funds Total) $28,945,611 $316,330 1.1 % Sub-Total Other Adjustments TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE (34.2) 0 (6,579,053) 0 0.0 (197,502,716) 64,432,545 -- (9.0) 327,907,726 327,907,726 -- 0.0 87,073,008 217,478,017 390,861,174 -- % (36,887,212) (14.5) % 1.3 % $3,251,236,521 $574,911,446 21.5 % ($34,021,262) (1.0) % ($548,000) (0.6) % $490,446,000 $5,943,000 1.2 % ($1,325,000) (0.3) % $774,377 2.7 % $137,215,534 ($1,675,584) (1.2) % $1,339,337 1.0 % $7,169,728 (1.7) 0 0.0 (10.1) (16.8) % (6,579,053) (1,479,096) 0 (36,887,212) 0.0 Non-General Funds __________ * Sales and Use line excludes revenue from the temporary 1¢ increase approved by the voter in May 2010. That revenue is shown under One-Time Revenues. Total November collections including the 1¢ increase were $353.1 million. This amount is $77.1 million, or 28.0%, above November 2009 and $(5.9) million, or (1.6)%, below forecast. Year to date, total collections including the 1¢ increase were $1.74 billion. This amount is $318.2 million, or 22.4%, above November 2009 and $(94.7) million, or (5.2)%, below forecast. 4 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2010 Economic Indicators NATIONAL “November marked the fourth straight month with a year-over-year growth in nonfarm employment. Compared to the same month in the prior year, the The Conference Board’s U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 1.1% in November, the largest gain in 8 months, signaling the economy might be strengthening early next year. A decrease in unemployment claims, improvements in vendor performance, and favorable interest rate spread, along with positive contributions from all but one indicator pushed the index to its highest point in a year. Consumer prices, as measured by the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased by 0.1% in November. Excluding food and energy, core consumer prices rose by 0.1% after being flat for 3 consecutive months. While November producer prices exerted upward pressure on input costs due to rising commodity prices, the continued restraint in consumer prices suggests that there is still considerable slack in the economy. The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) reported that Semiconductor Billings (3-month moving average) in the U.S. were $4.81 billion in October, or essentially at the same level as in the prior month. Year over year, chip sales have grown by 30.7%. The trade association expects sales growth to moderate in 2011 and 2012. state has now ARIZONA added 24,900 jobs (a net gain of 1%).” Employment According to the Arizona Department of Commerce, the state had a net gain of 12,800 nonfarm jobs in November. This represented a 0.5% increase over the prior month. November marked the fourth straight month with a yearover-year growth in nonfarm employment. Compared to the same month in the prior year, the state has now added 24,900 jobs (a net gain of 1%). Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, the state has shed (265,600) jobs, or (9.8)% of its workforce. See Tracking Arizona’s Recovery, for additional historical information. Most of November’s job gain was attributable to the retail sector (8,700), followed by employment services (1,800) and health care services (1,300). The state’s year-over-year growth rate of 1.0% in November exceeded the national average of 0.6%, suggesting that the recovery in Arizona is strengthening. While 6 sectors of the economy have yet to experience year-over- year job gains (manufacturing, financial activities, information, leisure and hospitality, other services, and government), there are still many positive signs, such as the expansion of the retail sector and increased use of temporary employees, which suggest that Arizona’s overall employment situation will continue to improve in the coming months. The state’s unemployment rate fell from 9.5% to 9.4% in November. This marked the second consecutive decline of Arizona’s jobless rate. By way of comparison, the national unemployment rate increased from 9.6% to 9.8% during the same month. The state’s unemployed filed a total of 23,332 initial claims for unemployment insurance in November, a (11.6)% decline over the prior month. Initial claims typically decrease in November due to the seasonal hiring of retail workers. November also marked the lowest level of initial claims since August 2008. Compared to the same month in the prior year, first-time claims in November were down by (18.9)%, the 13th consecutive month with year-over-year declines. Claims peaked in April 2009 when more than 41,000 individuals filed for initial jobless benefits. See Tracking Arizona’s Recovery, for additional historical information. The average weekly hours of production workers in manufacturing industries is a leading indicator since “factory hours” tend to lead the business cycle as employers usually adjust work hours before increasing or decreasing the size of their workforce. According to the Arizona Department of Commerce, preliminary data indicates that the average work week in November was 40.6 hours, a 1.0% increase over the prior month, and a 3.6% improvement since last year. November typically sees a sharp increase in the average work week due to seasonal hiring. Prior to the recession, the average work week for the month of November was 40.8 hours. 5 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2010 Economic Indicators Housing In November, the number of new Maricopa County foreclosure notices declined (16.8)% from October levels to 5,891. The total is the lowest for a single month since 5,339 new notices were recorded in March 2008. “In November, the number of new Maricopa County foreclosure notices declined (16.8)% from October levels to The number of Maricopa County pending foreclosures increased slightly in November. The November total of 41,771 is (18.8)% below the peak in December 2009 (51,466). See Tracking Arizona’s Recovery, for additional historical information. While foreclosure notices and pending foreclosures continue their decline from recent highs, they continue to be a major influence on existing home sales and the respective prices. In the Metropolitan Phoenix area in November, there were a total of 6,845 existing single-family home sales that resulted in a median resale home price of $135,000. Relative to the prior year, the number of sales and prices are down (17.9)% and (5.9)% respectively. Of the existing sales, 30.6%, or 2,095 were foreclosures. 5,891. The total is State Agency Data the lowest for a In December AHCCCS caseloads equaled 1.35 million members, a (0.7)% decrease over the prior month. AHCCCS caseloads are currently (1.4)% below December 2009 levels. The FY 2011 budget funded a projected December 2010 caseload of 1.41 million members. single month since 5,339 new notices were recorded in March 2008.” There were 44,949 TANF recipients in the state in November, a monthly caseload decrease of (0.2)%. Year-over-year, the number of TANF recipients has declined by (48.7)%. This decline is the result of changes to the statutory lifetime limit a person may receive cash assistance. Beginning in July, recipients can only receive benefits for a maximum of 36 months in a lifetime. Previously, the maximum had been 60 months. This change resulted in a caseload decline of approximately (16,000) recipients. The FY 2011 budget assumed caseloads of approximately 70,000 in FY 2011. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as Food Stamps, provides assistance to low-income households to purchase food. In November, there were a total 1.08 million food stamp recipients in the state, a (0.5)% decrease over the prior month. Compared to the same (Continued) month last year, food stamp participation was up by 6.1%. The number of food stamp recipients began increasing steadily in July 2007, after several years in the 550,000 to 575,000 range. The 3-month average count of the Department of Correction’s (ADC) inmate population rose to 40,307 inmates between September and November 2010. Relative to the prior month the population has increased by 25, and compared to a year ago the population has declined by (380) inmates. 6 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2010 Economic Indicators (Continued) Table 5 ECONOMIC INDICATORS Indicator Arizona - Unemployment Rate - Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims - Unemployment Insurance Claimants - Non-Farm Employment - Total Manufacturing Construction - Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing - Contracting Tax Receipts (3-month average) - Retail Sales Tax Receipts (3-month average) - Residential Building Permits (3-month moving average) Single-unit Multi-unit - Greater Phoenix Existing Home Sales Single-Family Townhouse/Condominium - Greater Phoenix Median Home Sales Price Single-Family Townhouse/Condominium - Foreclosure Activity, Maricopa County Foreclosure Notices (Notice of Trustee’s Sales Recorded) Pending Foreclosures (Active Notices) Greater Phoenix S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jan. 2000 = 100) - Arizona Months Supply of Housing, (ARMLS) - Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers - Arizona Average Natural Gas Price ($ per thousand cubic feet) - Arizona Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100) - Arizona Coincident Index (July 1992 = 100) - Arizona Personal Income - Arizona Population - AHCCCS Recipients - TANF Recipients - SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients - ADC Inmate Growth (3-month average) - Probation Caseload (Adult/Juvenile) Non-Maricopa Maricopa County United States - Gross Domestic Product (Chained 2005 dollars, SAAR) - Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100) - Leading Indicators Index (2004 = 100) - U.S. Semiconductor Billings (3-month moving average) - Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100) Time Period Current Value Change From Prior Period Change From Prior Year November November October November November November November Sept-Nov Sept-Nov 9.4% 23,332 73,259 2.45 million 148,700 117,300 40.6 $33.2 million $127.8 million (0.1)% (11.6)% (2.7)% 0.5% 0.4% (2.5)% 1.0% 7.0% (1.2)% 0.1% (18.9)% (30.1)% 1.0% (0.3)% 0.5% 3.6% (6.6)% 0.8% Aug-Oct Aug-Oct 792 164 (6.0)% 15.3% (29.3)% 255.8% November November 6,845 1,025 (15.2)% (15.6)% (17.9)% (12.4)% November November $135,000 $81,000 (2.6)% (4.7)% (5.9)% (23.5)% November November September 5,891 41,771 107.16 (16.8)% 0.5% (1.5)% (17.6)% (17.3)% (1.9)% November October September 6.7 months 3.26 million $5.69 4th Quarter 2010 October 3RD Quarter 2010 July 1, 2009 December November November Sept-Nov 56.3 179.83 $225.4 billion 6.60 million 1,347,631 44,949 1,081,346 40,307 14.7% 0.3% 0.7% N/A (0.7)% (0.2)% (0.5)% 25 inmates N/A 1.0% 3.4% 1.5% (1.4)% (48.7)% 6.1% (380) inmates October October 19,530 26,447 (98) (227) (195) (2,658) 3rd Quarter 2010 (Second Estimate) November November Aug-Oct November $13.3 trillion 2.5% 3.2% 54.1 112.4 $4.81 billion 219.1 8.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% 6.9% 6.2% 30.7% 1.1% (0.2) months 11.7% (7.3)% 1.3 months 2.1% (3.6)% 7 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2010 JLBC Meeting At its December 14, 2010 meeting, the Joint Legislative Budget Committee considered the following issues: Attorney General – Review of Allocation of Settlement Monies – The Committee gave a favorable review of a total of $1,431,400 from 2 settlements: 1) a $250,000 settlement resulting from mediation as part of ongoing Average Wholesale Price litigation with pharmaceutical companies, of which $227,500 will be deposited into the Consumer Protection-Consumer Fraud Revolving Fund and $22,500 will go toward outside counsel compensation; and 2) a $1,181,400 settlement from a consent judgment with Pulte Homes, of which $281,400 is designated to compensate Arizona consumers, $500,000 will be deposited into the Consumer Protection-Consumer Fraud Revolving Fund, $100,000 will fund the publication of new educational materials, and $300,000 will go toward Attorney General costs and investigative expenses. JCCR Meeting At its December 14, 2010 meeting, the Joint Committee on Capital Review considered the following issues: School Facilities Board – Review of Laveen Elementary School District Enrollment Counts – The Committee gave a favorable review of the Laveen Elementary School District project. The Committee favorably reviewed the leasepurchase issuance that will finance this project at its June 2010 meeting. Arizona State University – Review of Student Health Services Center and Other Projects – The Committee favorably reviewed the university’s request to issue a $14.8 million revenue bond to fund new construction and building renewal projects. Of this amount, $10 million will be for the Student Health Services Center new construction and renovation at the Tempe campus, $1.5 million for walkway renovations and lighting improvements at the Tempe campus, and $3.3 million for research and office space renovations at the Downtown campus. Arizona Game and Fish Department – Review of FY 2011Building Renewal and Ben Avery Shooting Facility Projects – The Committee gave a favorable review of the department’s proposed FY 2011 Building Renewal Allocation Plan totaling $506,800 and their request to expend $800,000 for improvements to the Ben Avery Shooting Facility. Arizona Department of Transportation – Review of FY 2011 Building Renewal Allocation Plan – The Committee gave a favorable review to the department’s $1,050,000 FY 2011 Building Renewal Allocation Plan, including $1,000,000 from the State Highway Fund and $50,000 from the State Aviation Fund. Arizona Department of Administration – FY 2011 – FY 2013 Rent Exemptions – The Committee recommended the proposed FY 2011, FY 2012, and FY 2013 semi-annual payment plan for the Office of Pest Management and the quarterly payment plan for the Board of Respiratory Care Examiners. 8 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2010 Summary of Recent Agency Reports Department of Economic Security – Report on Available State and Federal Domestic Violence Funding - Pursuant to a General Appropriation Act Footnote, the Department of Economic Security (DES) is submitting its annual report on state and federal domestic violence funds. There is a total of $24.0 million currently used by 6 state entities for domestic violence services, an increase of $0.1 million, or 0.4%, from FY 2009. (Aaron Galeener) Governor’s Council on Workforce Policy – Report on FY 2010 Annual Report – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 411542, the Governor’s Council on Workforce Policy (GCWP) submitted its annual report on workforce development. The total workforce spending from state, federal, and local sources for FY 2009 was $250 million. Of this total, the Department of Economic Security accounted for $193.5 million, Department of Education for $17.5 million, and Department of Commerce for $39.0 million. Additionally, the Community Colleges are estimating FY 2010 expenditures of $180.7 million. Excluding the community colleges, the largest programs in FY 2009 include the JOBS program, which provides employment and training services to Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) recipients ($27.5 million), Vocational Rehabilitation ($69.5 million), the Workforce Investment Act program ($37.6 million), and the Department of Commerce Job Training program ($38.3 million), which provides incentives to companies to provide training programs. (Eric Billings) Department of Public Safety – Quarterly Report on GIITEM – Pursuant to the General Appropriation Act, the Department of Public Safety (DPS) is required to report quarterly on the Gang and Immigration Intelligence Team Enforcement Mission (GIITEM). In the first quarter of FY 2011, DPS spent or encumbered $2.3 million of the $9.2 million appropriation for the direct DPS immigration staff. In terms of local law enforcement grants, DPS spent $1.3 million of the non-lapsing FY 2010 $2.6 million appropriation. The $2.6 million in new FY 2011 local law enforcement grants will be available for use through FY 2012. (Eric Billings) Department of Public Safety – Quarterly Report on Photo Enforcement – Pursuant to a footnote in the General Appropriation Act, the Department of Public Safety (DPS) is required to report quarterly on the Photo Enforcement program in FY 2011. Since the inception of the program in September 2008, a total of 1,695,625 Notices of Violation (NOVs) and citations have been issued and 452,147, or 26.7%, have been paid. The NOVs and citations issued by the Photo Enforcement Program generated $6.4 million in revenue for the first quarter of FY 2011 and $74.4 million since the program’s inception. The General Fund received no monies in the first quarter, although future transfers are planned, and $39.9 million since the program’s start. During the first quarter of FY 2011, the Photo Enforcement Program issued 30,621 citations that occurred prior to July 15. A total of 912 NOVs were paid during the quarter. DPS ended the photo radar program effective July 15. (Eric Billings) Department of Revenue – Annual Enforcement Goals Report – Pursuant to a General Appropriation Act footnote, the Department of Revenue (DOR) is required to report on their FY 2011 revenue enforcement goals, and to provide an annual progress report to the Committee as to the effectiveness of the department’s overall enforcement and collections program for FY 2010. DOR’s General Fund FY 2011 revenue enforcement goal is $360.9 million, which is $25.6 million, or 7.6%, above FY 2010 actual collections. This figure includes a $49.8 million increase due to a FY 2011 appropriation of $7.5 million to hire approximately 70 temporary collectors and 70 auditors. According to DOR, these targets were based on the assumption that they would not experience further budget reductions. Compared to actual FY 2010 General Fund enforcement revenue, DOR’s FY 2011 goals consist of: • • • An increase in audit revenue of $1.8 million, or 1.6%. An increase in collections revenue of $30.9 million, or 20.9%. A decrease in accounts receivables revenues of $(7.1) million, or (9.7)%. Table 6 compares DOR’s General Fund revenue enforcement goals for FY 2011 to their goals and results for FY 2010. The 3 main categories of enforcement revenue are audit, collections, and accounts receivable. Audit enforcement revenue includes revenue due to DOR’s auditing of taxpayer returns, and finding and licensing unlicensed businesses. Accounts receivable revenue includes taxpayer accounts paid before they would have been moved to collections, which allows DOR’s collectors to work on other accounts. After certain periods of time, unpaid taxpayer accounts are moved from accounts receivable to DOR’s Collections Section. (Eric Billings) 9 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2010 Summary of Recent Agency Reports (Continued) Table 6 DOR's General Fund Enforcement Revenue Goals in FY 2011 Compared to FY 2010 (Net of Duplications) FY 2010 Goals Audit Division Corporate Tax Nexus/Discovery 1/2/ Individual Tax Transaction Privilege Tax Luxury Tax License Compliance Subtotal $ 14,937,100 25,099,200 4,379,400 7,496,100 318,200 12,114,200 64,344,200 FY 2010 Actual $ 35,984,800 21,608,200 7,156,700 30,338,400 1,865,100 17,228,700 114,181,900 FY 2011 Goals $ 35,864,700 25,899,500 8,121,900 18,327,000 1,008,500 26,811,300 116,032,900 Collections 122,208,700 147,341,700 178,180,900 Accounts Receivable 3/ 65,724,800 73,804,000 66,688,000 Total: $252,277,700 $335,327,600 $360,901,800 ____________ 1/ The Nexus program is part of corporate audit, which locates out-of-state businesses with an Arizona business presence that are not paying Arizona corporate income tax. 2/ Discovery revenue is DOR's term for additional revenue attributed to BRITS, which can be traced to specific taxpayers. Beginning in FY 2010, these monies are no longer separated from the Nexus category due to the shift of the administration of BRITS to DOR. 3/ Taxpayer accounts paid before they would have been moved to collections, which allows collectors to work on other accounts. 10 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2010 November Spending FY 2011 Spending November 2010 spending of $551.8 million was $(134.1) million lower than November 2009 (See Table 7). • • • In November, the Arizona Department of Education spending was $(144.2) million lower than the prior year. November expenditures were lower due to ADE soft capital reductions being made earlier in the year compared to last year. University spending was $56.5 million in November, or $(21.8) million lower than the prior year. The decreased expenditure amount reflects a rollover of the monthly payment, which is spread out over the course of the fiscal year. Department of Health Services (DHS) spending was $47.3 million in November or $36.2 more than the prior year. The • higher expenditure amount reflects a transfer to AHCCCS for DHS Medicaid expenditures occurring in a different month last year compared to this year. Department of Economic Security (DES) spending was $8.2 million in November, or $(26.7) less than the prior year. This low expenditure amount reflects technical transfers of agency funds and does not reflect actual expenditures. Table 7 General Fund Spending ($ in Millions) Nov 11 Agency AHCCCS Corrections Economic Security Education Health Services Public Safety School Facilities Board Universities Leaseback Debt Service Other Total 121.4 66.9 8.2 229.1 47.3 1.4 0.2 56.5 20.8 551.8 Change from Nov 10 22.8 8.5 (26.7) (144.2) 36.2 (0.4) 0.1 (21.8) (8.6) (134.1) Year to Date 643.3 367.5 431.9 1,923.7 223.2 27.8 33.2 491.0 52.1 309.4 4,503.1 YTD Change from FY 10 27.4 26.0 (11.9) (42.2) (61.4) (12.3) (48.9) 13.1 52.1 (37.0) (95.1) 11 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2010 Table 8 Agency Department of Administration Department of Admin Sale/Leaseback D/S Office of Administrative Hearings Department of Agriculture AHCCCS Arizona Commission on the Arts Attorney General AZ Capital Post Conviction Public Defender State Board of Charter Schools Board of Chiropractic Examiners Department of Commerce Community Colleges Corporation Commission Department of Corrections Board of Cosmetology AZ Criminal Justice Commission AZ State Schools for the Deaf & Blind Department of Economic Security Department of Education DEMA Department. of Environmental Quality DEQ – WQARF Office of Equal Opportunity State Board of Equalization Board of Executive Clemency Department of Financial Institutions Department of Fire, Life, Bldg Safety Office of the State Forrester Board of Funeral Directors Arizona Geological Survey Government Information Tech. Governor Gov. - OSPB Department of Health Services Arizona Historical Society Prescott Historical Society of AZ Independent Redistricting Comm. Commission on Indian Affairs Department of Insurance Judiciary Supreme Court Superior Court Court of Appeals Department of Juvenile Corrections State Land Department Law Enforcement Merit System General Fund Spending ($ in Thousands) Change from November 11 November 10 1,173.2 (491.9) 41.7 (6.6) 446.0 (76.5) 121,351.6 22,762.2 47.8 (14.7) 1,133.5 206.1 46.9 (28.7) 36.2 226.2 36.5 66,916.8 1,033.0 8,231.0 229,064.6 659.4 9.0 29.1 41.4 144.2 123.5 161.2 33.3 25.6 398.1 130.2 47,305.7 165.9 68.0 10.1 300.5 0.9 (864.3) 4.2 8,463.5 (252.0) 675.3 (26,674.9) (144,182.6) (98.4) (349.4) (18.3) (17.4) (6.3) (39.2) 102.9 161.2 (9.4) (6.8) (763.5) (30.9) 36,165.3 26.2 35.6 (0.7) (36.5) (13.1) 481.7 1,287.5 902.9 3,212.5 416.8 5.1 (168.7) (907.2) (932.5) (1,298.6) (576.9) (0.4) Year-to-Date 11,516.3 52,066.9 459.7 4,658.7 643,296.1 325.5 9,233.2 266.3 YTD Change from FY 10 2,272.8 52,066.9 (54.0) (229.7) 27,435.2 (6.8) (697.9) (35.5) 395.7 2,637.9 66,213.2 256.1 367,543.5 10,079.4 431,896.0 1,923,706.1 4,668.0 0.6 7,000.0 98.9 240.7 469.6 1,427.5 1,339.1 1,362.9 264.0 231.7 3,794.6 969.9 223,232.0 4,029.0 284.8 24.3 2,976.7 18.1 (148.0) 1,012.4 33.3 26,041.0 (252.0) 4.6 462.2 (11,978.7) (42,202.4) 600.1 (2,557.8) (11.6) (96.0) (80.9) (323.6) 123.1 1,362.9 (100.0) (132.5) 11.9 (279.2) 308.5 (61,444.6) 1,663.3 20.4 (25.5) 33.8 (79.6) 12,975.2 36,003.3 7,628.3 27,750.6 1,541.1 35.1 3,124.5 (4,558.4) 755.6 (6,514.5) (5,890.9) (2.1) 12 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2010 Agency Legislature Auditor General House of Representatives Joint Legislative Budget Comm. Legislative Council Senate Department of Liquor Licenses Board of Medical Student Loans Mine Inspector Department of Mines & Mineral Resources Nav. Streams & Adjudication OSHA Board of Osteopathic Examiners Arizona State Parks Board Pioneers’ Home Board of Psychologist Examiners Comm. for Postsecondary Ed. Department of Public Safety Arizona Department of Racing Radiation Regulatory Agency Arizona Rangers Pension Real Estate Department Department of Revenue School Facilities Board Secretary of State Tax Appeals Board Office of Tourism Department of Transportation State Treasurer Universities Board of Regents Arizona State University Northern Arizona University University of Arizona Veterinary Medical Examiners Board Department of Veteran Services Department of Water Resources Department of Weights & Measures Other Grand Total November 10 Change from November 09 1,107.7 711.9 125.5 259.7 487.1 3.3 73.1 18.4 4.9 171.1 25.0 1,434.7 269.4 70.4 1.2 135.9 (434.3) 199.9 1,052.1 16.5 1.4 0 (2.7) (5.1) (27.0) (12.6) (30.8) (72.8) (49.1) 1.3 (18.7) (0.2) 171.1 25.0 (81.8) (370.9) 145.4 97.8 0.1 (64.6) (1,437.9) 122.7 (53.9) 0.2 1.3 (117.8) 419.3 25,400.9 8,551.9 22,135.0 3,253.8 560.6 63.8 42.3 551,829.2 (3,412.9) (8,295.5) (2,823.8) (7,268.9) 2,054.3 (520.7) (16.0) (2,723.7) (134,051.2) Year-to-Date YTD Change from FY 10 8,368.9 5,768.2 1,048.2 2,380.3 4,078.7 3.3 744.1 555.2 744.1 83.6 20,000.0 529.0 25.0 157.7 27,792.9 3,041.1 696.7 5.9 1,615.2 17,978.5 33,150.4 9,434.5 129.8 17.3 0 1,039.7 (38.6) (78.7) (287.1) (46.5) (732.7) (223.4) (78.3) 371.2 3.9 (4.0) (100.0) (1,900.3) 529.0 (275.0) (730.2) (12,327.4) (216.7) (74.6) 0.8 (256.4) (82.7) (48,945.7) 5,189.2 (2.3) (200.0) (15.5) (1,296.0) 10,567.7 217,582.0 73,253.1 189,604.2 7,999.4 2,512.0 537.2 (185.1) 4,503,117.6 (3,687.6) 5,652.3 1,911.2 4,936.5 (250.0) 4,389.9 (5,344.7) (85.0) (21,542.2) (95,149.5)