JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights

1716 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Phone:
(602) 926-5491
Fax:
(602) 926-5416

www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

“Year-to-date,
revenues are
$7.2 million
above forecast.”

June 2010

Summary
May General Fund revenues totaled $485.1
million and continued the positive gain in
collections that began last month. Excluding
revenue sharing and adjustments, base
revenues grew by 5.6% above the May 2009
level. The May increase follows a 4.1%
increase in April. See Tables 1 and 5 for more
details on May General Fund revenues.

Budget Projections – In April, JLBC Staff
projected a FY 2010 shortfall of $(150) million
and a FY 2011 shortfall of $(368) million to
$(1.2) billion. (See the June 3rd JLBC Staff
Budget Status Update for a slideshow
presentation of this issue). These estimates will
next be updated in July after Fiscal Year-end
2010 revenue numbers become available.

May revenues exceeded the forecast by
$42.5 million. Year-to-date, revenues are
(11.0)% below FY 2009, but are $7.2 million
above the forecast. The last time the State
was above the year-to-date forecast in May
was FY 2006.

The potential FY 2011 shortfall consisted of
approximately 3 different $400 million
elements:

May 2010 General Fund spending was $257.1
million. May expenditures were higher than
the prior year in part due to technical
revisions. Without this technical change,
spending would have declined $(95.4) million.
Year-to-date spending is ($1.2) billion less than
the prior year.
Fiscal year-to-date, General Fund revenues
are $6.60 billion compared to spending of
$7.68 billion for a shortfall of $(1.08) billion. This
shortfall is less than April’s $(1.30) billion.
Budget News
This Monthly Fiscal Highlight includes
information on budget projections, state
borrowing, the asset sale/leaseback and a
new federal health insurance regulation
grant.

•

Revenue shortfall. With the growth in April
and May revenues, however, the revenue
shortfall seems less likely to occur at this
time. The higher revenue growth would
also potentially eliminate any FY 2010
shortfall.

•

No extended enhanced federal match
rate. Contingent upon Congressional
approval, these extra federal funds would
help pay for the continuation of the
Proposition 204 program through the end
of FY 2011. As of this writing, Congress has
yet to approve these funds. The most
recent U.S. House omnibus bill did not
include the provision. While the U.S.
Senate Majority leadership is supportive of
the extension, the bill is still being
filibustered in the Senate as concerns grow
over the federal deficit. The most recent
version of the legislation would potentially
reduce the State’s share of additional
funding by one-third.

Table of Contents
Summary

Summary of Recent Agency Reports

• Budget News……………..…............................... 1

• AHCCCS – Report on SAVE Program .............. 9
• Economic Estimates Commission - BSF ........... 9

May Revenues ........................................................ 3
This report has been
prepared for the Arizona
Legislature by the Joint
Legislative Budget
Committee Staff on June
24, 2010

Economic Indicators .............................................. 6
JCCR Meeting Summary
• SFB – $100 Million Lease-Purchase ................... 9
• Game & Fish – Shooting Range ....................... 9

May Spending....................................................... 10

2

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2010

Summary

(continued)

Table 1

May
Year-to-Date
•

“In the last week,
the operating
balance has had
a positive
balance of over
$600 million.”

General Fund Revenues ($ in Millions)
FY 2010
Difference From
Difference
Collections
Budget Forecast
From FY 2009
$ 485.1
$42.5
$ 27.3
$6,604.1
$ 7.2
$ (234.4)

Failure of the November ballot propositions
concerning “First Things First” and the Land
Conservation Fund. These 2 ballot
propositions would: 1) Repeal First Things
First and transfer the agencies remaining
fund balance to the General Fund and
shift the ongoing tobacco tax revenues to
the General Fund; 2) Transfer any
unexpended monies in the Land
Conservation Fund to the General Fund.

Since April, a new potential shortfall issue has
developed. The Arizona Department of
Education (ADE) recently provided an update
regarding its FY 2010 budget status. ADE
estimates that it will experience a $(31) million
net funding shortfall for formula programs for
FY 2010. That estimate would be $(80) million,
however, apart from a $49 million adjustment
for federal “State Fiscal Stabilization Fund”
monies budgeted for FY 2011 that ADE
instead used to address a portion of its FY
2010 funding shortfall.

State Borrowing – In the beginning of June,
the Treasurer continued daily borrowing in
order to pay state obligations. Since then, the
overall financial picture has subsequently
improved and daily borrowing has not been
necessary. The improved cash flow was due
to a combination of increased revenues
related to cash deposits from the recent
lottery securitization and asset
sale/leaseback, along with decreased
spending due to payments being deferred to
the next fiscal year.
In the last week, the operating balance has
had a positive balance of over $600 million.
Based on informal discussions with the
Treasurer’s Office and the General
Accounting Office, the state’s positive
operating balance is expected to continue
until September. At that time, the state is
projected to run a negative balance as $1.3
billion in rollover payments to K-12, the
Universities, and other agencies come due.

ADE’s FY 2011 General Fund budget was
reduced by $(93) million with the intent that
$93 million of stabilization funds would offset
that reduction. With $49 million being used in
FY 2010, only $44 million will be backfilled in FY
2011. All education related stabilization funds
have been allocated.

On June 9, the State Loan Commission met to
discuss 2 items related to overnight borrowing:
an extension of the existing borrowing
agreement with Bank of America, and setting
the interest rate the state would pay on
overnight borrowing. The Commission took no
action on either item.

In FY 2011, ADE’s budget could face a
shortfall of up to $130 million. This shortfall
estimate is speculative and will ultimately
depend on final FY 2010 student counts and
preliminary FY 2011 student counts, which will
not be available until this fall. The estimate
includes:

Without some action by the Commission, the
state will not have the authority for any
overnight borrowing after the start of the new
fiscal year. In September, there will be at
least 3 options to deal with the projected
negative operating balance: sign a new
commercial lending contract, resume
borrowing from internal funds, or issue IOUs.

•
•
•

$31 million carryover shortfall from FY 2010.
$49 million stabilization fund shortfall in FY
2011, due to using these funds to address
the FY 2010 shortfall.
$50 million for incorporating the higher
than expected FY 2010 base into the FY
2011 formula. The other $30 million of the
$80 million FY 2010 shortfall is anticipated
to be one-time.

See the JLBC Staff Analysis of State Borrowing
for additional information.
Asset Sale/Leaseback and Lottery Revenue
Bonds – In late May, the State completed the
issuance of $450 million of lottery revenue
bonds at a yield of approximately 4.27%. In
early June, the state completed the issuance
of an additional $300 million of certificates of

3

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2010

Summary

(continued)

participation for the asset sale/ leaseback of
state properties at a yield of 4.38%. Funds
from these issuances are anticipated to be
deposited into the General Fund before the
end of FY 2010, as assumed by the budget.
Health Insurance Regulation Grants - The
Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act
(PPACA) requires states to provide increased
oversight of health insurance plans. On June
8th, the federal government announced the
availability of $51.0 million in grants to help
states review health insurance premium

increases, provide information to the federal
government, and establish centers to analyze
and distribute information to the public. The
state would receive $1.0 million if its
application is approved and would not have
to provide matching funds. In future years,
the federal government will make an
additional $199.0 million available to states.

May Revenues

“Contracting
continued its
poor
performance,
with a (19.2)%
decrease
compared to
May of last year,
while the retail
category was
almost flat
compared to last
year, decreasing
by (0.1)%.”

Sales Tax collections were $277.3 million in
May. Collections were down (0.6)% compared
to last May and were $(10.7) million below the
forecast. As noted last month, April broke a
string of 26 consecutive months of year-overyear reductions. However, April’s increase was
at least partially due to the collection of sales
tax which was due in prior months. Adjusting
for the prior months’ collections, April revenues
were about equal to April of last year. May
collections continue that trend, with collections
approximately equal to May of the prior year.
Table 2 displays the May growth rates for the
largest categories.
Table 2

May
(0.1)%
(19.2)%
(2.0)%
4.6%
4.3%

Individual Income Tax net revenues were
$160.0 million in May. Collections were $48.8
million above the forecast. Year-to-date
collections are down by (6.2)%.
As indicated in Table 3 below, withholding tax
payments increased by 5.1% in May, the fourth
consecutive month of increase after 16 months
of declines.
Table 3

Sales Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

Retail
Contracting
Utilities
Use
Restaurant & Bar

data) compared to the prior year. The motor
vehicle category is down (4.6)% through April.
The Motor Vehicle category continues to
improve each month from the (33)% decline
for all of FY 2009 (see Table 4 below).

Individual Income Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

YTD
(7.4)%
(38.3)%
0.5%
(9.6)%
(1.2)%

As noted in previous months, retail and
contracting together account for about 30% of
all sales tax revenues. Contracting continued
its poor performance, with a (19.2)% decrease
compared to May of last year, while the retail
category was almost flat compared to last
year, decreasing by (0.1)%.
Within the retail category, General
Merchandise and Miscellaneous Retail are
down (2.5)% through April (the latest available

Withholding
Estimated +
Final Payments
Refunds

May
5.1%
(53.5)%

YTD
(2.3)%
(22.5)%

(41.1)%

(8.4)%

The May positive variance from the forecast is
due primarily to reduced refunds for the
month, which were down more than (40)%
compared to the prior year. This May gain,
combined with the large gain from April noted
last month, brings the total gain relative to the
forecast for refunds to $82.7 million for the year.
Year-to-date, for this year’s tax filing season,
(January through May), estimated and final
payments are down over (18)% compared to

4

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2010

May Revenues
Table 4

(Continued)

April Taxable Retail Sales by Subcategory

General/Misc. Merchandise
Motor Vehicles/Misc. Auto.
Bldg Materials and Supplies
Food and Liquor Stores
Furniture, Home Furnishings
Clothing and Accessories
Manufacturing
Other Subcategories
Total

“Year-to-date,
total HURF
collections of
$1.09 billion are
down $(51.5)
million or (4.5)%
compared to last
year.”

% of Total
31.2%
20.0%
7.4%
7.5%
6.9%
5.8%
5.5%
15.7%
100.0%

% Change
From ’09 YTD
(2.5)%
(4.6)%
(6.7)%
(5.7)%
(11.0)%
(6.5)%
(17.4)%
(20.8)%
(8.4)%

the same period in the prior year. However,
this decrease is more than offset by a
decrease in refunds for the same period of
over (11)%.

Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) revenues
consist of gasoline and use fuel (diesel) tax,
motor carrier fees (commercial carriers),
vehicle license tax and registration fees, and
various other fees.

Corporate Income Tax net collections were
$51.4 million in May. This amount was $11.3
million above the forecast for the month.
Approximately $10.0 million of May collections
were erroneously included in May collections
due to a technical error and were removed
the first week of June. The $11.3 positive
forecast variance reflects an adjustment for
that technical correction. Year-to-date,
corporate collections are (34.9)% below last
year.

HURF collections of $99.1 million in May were
up $6.0 million or 6.5% compared to May of last
year. However, May 2009 HURF collections
were reduced due to a technical correction.
Adjusting for this correction, May 2010
collections were approximately equal to May
of the prior year. Year-to-date, total HURF
collections of $1.09 billion are down $(51.5)
million or (4.5)% compared to last year.

The Lottery Commission reports that May
ticket sales were $49.7 million, which is 7.2%
above sales last year. Year-to-date, ticket
sales are $60.9 million or 13.7% above last
year. While ticket sales have increased,
distributions to state beneficiaries are down
$(3.2) million. As we have noted in previous
months, it appears that sales have increased
as prize payouts have increased (which
reduces payments to state beneficiaries).
Non-General Funds
Tobacco Tax revenues were $29.8 million in
May. Collections were up 7.5% compared to
the prior year. Year-to-date collections are
down by (11.7)%.
Less than 10% of tobacco taxes are deposited
directly into the General Fund. The remainder
primarily goes to AHCCCS and the
Department of Health Services (DHS) to defray
the General Fund cost of operating those
programs.

5

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2010

Table 5

State of Arizona
General Fund Revenue:

Change from Previous Year and Enacted Budget Forecast
May 2010
Current Month

FY 2010 YTD (Eleven Months)

Change From
Actual

May 2009

May 2010

Percent

Amount

Change from
Actual

Forecast
Amount

Percent

May 2009

May 2010

Amount

Forecast
Percent

Amount

Percent

Taxes
Sales and Use

$277,349,504

($1,540,274)

$3,134,813,513

($365,861,920)

(10.5) %

($24,773,999)

159,976,798

61,433,098

62.3

48,841,444

43.9

2,145,750,846

(142,593,300)

(6.2)

23,418,254

51,427,886

2,495,782

5.1

11,254,127

28.0

322,643,556

(172,976,682)

(34.9)

18,327,535

6.0

Property

2,744,174

334,289

13.9

1,533,174

126.6

16,726,693

1,913,193

12.9

2,149,466

14.7

Luxury - Tobacco

2,605,560

346,211

15.3

(209,440)

(7.4)

23,916,044

(3,384,132)

(12.4)

(2,956,665)

(11.0)

2,342,499

98,141

4.4

32,499

1.4

26,224,466

(325,370)

(1.2)

(983,541)

(3.6)

(6.8)

333,153,455

2,493,653

0.8

4,222,162

--

358,995

148,623

70.6

25,611

7.7

(27.6)

1,415,797

287,538

25.5

813,888

135.2

Income - Individual
- Corporate

- Liquor
Insurance Premium
Estate
Other Taxes
Sub-Total Taxes

25,947,909
0
20,990
$522,415,320

(4,359,806)
0
(28,481)
$58,778,960

(0.6) %

($10,706,639)

(14.4)

(1,887,091)

--

0

(57.6)

(8,010)

12.7 %

$48,850,064

(3.7) %

10.3 %

$6,005,003,365

($680,298,397)

(10.2) %

(71.5)

31,000,000

(2,007,500)

(6.1)

16.8

23,959,990

(6,572,862)

(21.5)

464,961

(19,056,070)

(97.6)

$20,242,711

(0.8) %
1.1

1.3

0.3 %

Other Revenue
Lottery
License, Fees and Permits
Interest
Sales and Services
Other Miscellaneous
Disproportionate Share
Transfers and Reimbursements
Sub-Total Other Revenue
TOTAL BASE REVENUE

884,800

(2,170,700)

(71.0)

1,634,736

(685,380)

(29.5)

(9,323,188)

--

(72,977)

--

(3,900,215)

(94.2)

24,212,595

(15,763,644)

(39.4)

(5,210,295)

(17.7)

7.0

31,567,897

(9,961,639)

(24.0)

(4,106,768)

(11.5)

--

0

(18,727,942)

(100.0)

(79.2)

34,250,056

(72,977)
239,785

(3,161,628)

(93.0)

3,211,212

(2,821,712)

(46.8)

0
169,713
6,067,269
$528,482,589

0
(3,278,591)
(21,441,199)
$37,337,761

(2,215,200)
234,736

211,212

--

0

(95.1)

(645,287)

(77.9) %
7.6 %

(6,387,731)

*

$42,462,333

534,775

(37,600)
2,116,662
(709,576)

0

1.6

(51.3) %

145,455,499

(71,554,882)

(33.0) %

8.7 %

$6,150,458,864

($751,853,279)

(10.9) %

(5,071,582)

(0.1)
9.7
(60.4)

-(12.9)

(13,019,159)

(8.2) %

$7,223,552

0.1 %

*

Other Adjustments
Urban Revenue Sharing
Budget Plan Transfers
Leaseback Proceeds
Sub-Total Other Adjustments
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUE

(52,387,052)

8,252,731

8,987,236

(18,277,701)

0
(43,399,816)

0
(10,024,970)

--

0

0.0

(576,257,577)

90,780,039

(67.0)

0

0.0

294,475,725

(308,719,295)

-(51.2)

(2)

0.0

0

0.0

--

0

--

735,419,300

735,419,300

--

30.0 %

0

0.0 %

453,637,448

517,480,044

-- %

0

$42,462,333

9.6 %

$6,604,096,312

($234,373,235)

(3.4) %

$7,223,550

0.1 %

(2)

0.0
(0.0) %

$485,082,773

$27,312,791

6.0 %

Highway User Revenue Fund

$99,106,000

$6,029,000

6.5 %

($4,668,000)

(4.5) %

$1,091,839,000

($51,512,000)

(4.5) %

($47,726,000)

(4.2) %

Tobacco Tax (All Funds Total)

$29,804,808

$2,083,376

7.5 %

$5,675,031

23.5 %

$304,038,476

($40,138,860)

(11.7) %

$10,173,251

3.5 %

Non-General Funds

* After accounting for a $10 million technical adjustment in Corporate Income Taxes, the May adjusted growth rate is 5.6%, and the year-to-date decline is (11.0)%.

6

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2010

Economic Indicators
NATIONAL

“Year-over-year,
total nonfarm
employment was
down by (0.7)%,
or (16,600) jobs.
This was the
slowest rate of
decline since
February 2008.”

Consumer prices, as measured by the U.S.
Consumer Price Index (CPI), decreased by
(0.2)% in May, following April’s (0.1)% decline.
The drop in consumer prices was primarily due
to falling gasoline prices. The core CPI, which
excludes food and energy prices, inched up
0.1% in May and is now 1.0% above last year’s
level, the lowest rate of core inflation since the
mid-1960s.
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA)
reported that Semiconductor Billings (3-month
moving average) in the U.S. reached $3.94
billion in April, a 3.1% improvement from the
prior month and a 48.9% increase over April
2009 levels. April experienced the largest
amount of semiconductor sales since
November 2006.
ARIZONA
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s
coincident index gauges current economic
activity in each state. The index combines 4
indicators: employment, average hours
worked in manufacturing, unemployment rate,
and inflation-adjusted wages.
The state coincident index for Arizona
advanced for the fifth consecutive month in
May with a month-over-month increase of
0.4%. Under the Philadelphia Federal Reserve
Bank’s rule-of-thumb, 3 consecutive months of
increases of the index tend to signal that the
economy has turned a corner and is beginning
to recover. As seen in the graph, the Arizona
coincident index reached a trough in
December 2009. See Tracking Arizona’s
Recovery, for additional historical information.

220
(July 1992 = 100)

The Conference Board’s U.S. Index of Leading
Economic Indicators rose by 0.4% in May. The
modest increase comes on the heels of an
upward revision for April. Most of the small gain
was attributable to an increase in money
supply and a favorable spread between shortand long-term interest rates. At a reading of
109.9, the index has improved by close to 10%
over the last 12 months.

Arizona Coincident Economic Activity Index
230

210

200

190
Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Employment
According to latest release of employment
data by Arizona Department of Commerce,
the state added 3,400 nonfarm payroll jobs in
May. However, absent the additional 9,600
federal workers added to the payrolls in May
(most of whom were hired for the 2010
Census), the state would have experienced a
net job loss of (6,200). The average job loss for
the month of May in the prior 10 years was
(100).
Six of the 10 industries that comprise private
sector employment shed jobs in May, with
most of those losses concentrated to
professional and business services and the
leisure and hospitality industry.
Year-over-year, total nonfarm employment
was down by (0.7)%, or (16,600) jobs. This was
the slowest rate of decline since February 2008.
Year-over-year job losses peaked in June 2009
when there were reportedly (217,200), or
(8.4)%, fewer people on the payrolls than in the
previous year. Since the onset of the recession
in December 2007, the state has lost (287,500)
jobs, which constitutes a (10.6)% reduction of
the workforce.
While nonfarm employment has yet to reach its
trough (on a year-over-year basis), available
data suggests that this will occur within the
coming few months. See Tracking Arizona’s
Recovery, for additional historical information.
The average weekly hours of production
workers in manufacturing industries is a leading
indicator since “factory hours” tend to lead
the business cycle as employers usually adjust
work hours before increasing or decreasing
the size of their workforce. According to the
Arizona Department of Commerce,
preliminary data indicates that the average

7

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2010

Economic Indicators

“…the number of
foreclosure
notices - the
initial step in the
foreclosure
process –
totaled 6,471, a
(8.4)% decrease
from the prior
month and a
(24.9)%
decrease from a
year ago.”

work week in May was 40.3 hours, the best
reading since December 2008. This leading
indicator has improved in each of the last 3
months and was (as of May) 2.8% above last
year’s level, the largest year-over-year
increase since January 2007. This
improvement suggests that the
manufacturing sector is likely to begin adding
people to their payrolls in the coming months.
The state’s unemployment rate was 9.6% in
May, a 0.1% increase over the prior month.
This measure has remained essentially
unchanged over the last 4 months. The
state’s jobless rate has more than doubled
since it reached a record-low 3.7% during the
second quarter of 2007.
The Department of Commerce reported that
27,535 initial claims for unemployment
insurance were filed in May. At this level,
there were (4,271), or (13.4)%, fewer claims
than in the prior month. The reduction in
claims was mostly attributable to seasonal
factors. To provide some perspective, the prerecession average decline for the month of
May was (16.6)%. May marked the seventh
consecutive month with a year-over-year
decline in claims. Initial jobless claims peaked
in April 2009 when more than 41,000
individuals filed for benefits. See Tracking
Arizona’s Recovery, for additional historical
information.
Housing
Foreclosure related data continued to
improve in May. In Maricopa County, the
number of foreclosure notices - the initial step
in the foreclosure process – totaled 6,471, a
(8.4)% decrease from the prior month and a
(24.9)% decrease from a year ago. The
number of pending foreclosures decreased
(3.9)% from the prior month to 44,997.
Pending foreclosures peaked at 51,466 in
December 2009. At their current levels, initial
foreclosure notices and pending foreclosures
are at their lowest levels since July 2008 and
May 2009, respectively. See Tracking Arizona’s
Recovery, for additional historical information.
Statewide, an average of 1,153 single-family
residential building permits were issued per
month between March and May. At this
level, activity is (4.2)% below the previous
period but 16.1% above levels a year ago.
Over the last year, a total of 14,268 singlefamily permits have been issued.

(Continued)

State Agency Data
Participation in income driven programs
declined somewhat over the prior month, but
still remains significantly above last year.
In June, AHCCCS caseloads equaled 1.36
million members, a 0.2% increase over the prior
month. AHCCCS caseloads are currently 8.5%
above June 2009 levels. Total enrollment has
stayed essentially unchanged since December
2009. The FY 2010 budget funded a projected
June caseload growth of 14.4%, for a total of
1,435,445 members.
There were 74,187 TANF recipients in the
state in April, a monthly caseload decrease
of (3.0)%. Year-over-year, the number of
TANF recipients has declined by (12.1)%. The
FY 2010 budget assumed that the June 2010
TANF caseload would be 84,287.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance
Program (SNAP), formerly known as Food
Stamps, provides assistance to low-income
households to purchase food. In April, there
were a total 1.02 million food stamp
recipients in the state, a decrease of (1.9)%
over the prior month. Compared to the
same month last year, food stamp
participation was up by 29.3%. The number
of food stamp recipients began increasing
steadily in July 2007, after several years in the
550,000 to 575,000 range.
The Department of Correction’s (ADC) inmate
population 3-month average count totaled
40,584 inmates between March and May 2010.
During this period, population growth
averaged 77 inmates per month. Fiscal yearto-date, however, population growth has
increased at an average rate of only 18
inmates per month.
In counties other than Maricopa County (who
funds all of their probation programs), the
state and counties share the costs of
probation programs. Based on adult and
juvenile probation data from February and
April, respectively, the non-Maricopa
probation caseload was 19,616 individuals –
122 less probationers than the prior month
and 614 probationers less than a year ago. In
Maricopa County, there were 28,881
probationers during the period, 51 less than
the prior month and 808 less than a year ago.

8

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2010

Economic Indicators

(Continued)

Table 6

ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Indicator
Arizona
- Unemployment Rate
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Unemployment Insurance Claimants
- Non-Farm Employment – Total
Manufacturing
Construction
- Average Weekly Hours, Manufacturing
- Contracting Tax Receipts (3-month average)
- Retail Sales Tax Receipts (3-month average)
- Residential Building Permits (3-month moving average)
Single-unit
Multi-unit
- Greater Phoenix Existing Home Sales
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Greater Phoenix Median Home Sales Price
Single-Family
Townhouse/Condominium
- Foreclosure Activity, Maricopa County
Foreclosure Notices (Notice of Trustee’s Sales Recorded)
Pending Foreclosures (Active Notices)
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jan. 2000 = 100)
- Months Supply of Housing, (ARMLS)
- Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers
- Arizona Average Natural Gas Price
($ per thousand cubic feet)
- Arizona Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Arizona Coincident Index (July 1992 = 100)
- Arizona Personal Income
- Arizona Population
- AHCCCS Recipients
- TANF Recipients
- SNAP (Food Stamps) Recipients
- ADC Inmate Growth (3-month average)
- Probation Caseload (Adult/Juvenile)
Non-Maricopa
Maricopa County
United States
- Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2005 dollars, SAAR)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Leading Indicators Index (2004 = 100)
- U.S. Semiconductor Billings (3-month moving average)
- Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100)

Time Period

Current Value

Change From
Prior Period

Change From
Prior Year

May
May
May
May
May
May
May
Mar-May
Mar-May

9.6%
27,535
84,120
2.43 million
147,800
115,000
40.3
$29.1 million
$126.6 million

0.1%
(13.4)%
(3.7)%
0.1%
(0.2)%
1.6%
2.5%
7.5%
4.3%

0.4%
(21.0)%
(20.5)%
(0.7)%
(3.7)%
(12.1)%
2.8%
(29.1)%
(5.7)%

Mar-May
Mar-May

1,153
112

(4.2)%
2.1%

16.1%
167.5%

May
May

9,660
1,510

(5.8)%
(9.6)%

(3.2)%
39.2%

May
May

$145,000
$103,000

(2.0)%
1.0%

7.4%
(10.4)%

May
May
March
May
April
March

6,471
44,997
109.52
6.8 months
3.31 million
$7.41

(8.4)%
(3.9)%
(0.5)%
0.2 months
(4.3)%
2.3%

(24.9)%
0.5%
2.5%
0.7 months
0.4%
(9.5)%

2nd Quarter 2010
May
1st Quarter 2010
July 1, 2009
June
April
April
Mar-May

49.6
200.25
$220.0 billion
6.60 million
1,362,618
74,187
1,022,647
40,584

(1.2)%
0.4%
1.1%
N/A
0.2%
(3.0)%
(1.9)%
77 inmates

NA
(0.4)%
1.0%
1.5%
8.5%
(12.1)%
29.3%
404 inmates

Feb/Apr
Feb/Apr

19,616
28,881

(122)
(51)

(614)
(808)

1st Quarter 2010
(Second Estimate)
May
May
Feb-Apr
May

$13.2 trillion

3.0%

2.5%

63.3
109.9
$3.94 billion
217.2

9.7%
0.4%
3.4%
(0.2)%

15.5%
9.7%
48.9%
2.0%

9

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2010

JCCR Meeting
At its June 16, 2010 meeting, the Joint
Committee on Capital Review considered the
following issues:
School Facilities Board – Review of $100 Million
Lease-Purchase Issuance – The Committee
gave a favorable review of the leasepurchase issuance of $100 million in Qualified
School Construction Bonds. In addition, the
Committee gave a favorable review of 9 new
school construction projects, with the
provision that the School Facilities Board not
release funds for the construction of the
Laveen Elementary School District and Liberty
Elementary School District projects until the
Committee reviews the districts’ enrollment
counts in relation to their capacity.

enrollment forecasts for these districts, the
Committee requested additional student
count information once these figures are
made available in the fall.
Arizona Game and Fish Department – Review
of Remaining Ben Avery Shooting Facility
Improvements – The Committee favorably
reviewed the department’s request to
expend $460,700 in remaining funds for the
Ben Avery Shooting Facility project. A total of
$950,000 was appropriated for this project, of
which $489,300 was favorably reviewed by
the Committee at its November 2009
meeting.

These 2 districts were projected to be over
capacity in FY 2012 and FY 2013, respectively.
In order to assess the accuracy of the

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
AHCCCS – Report on Systematic Alien
Verification for Entitlements Program –
Pursuant to A.R.S. § 36-2903.03, the Arizona
Health Care Cost Containment System
(AHCCCS) provided its quarterly report on the
collection and verification of documentation
associated with the Systematic Alien
Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) program.
AHCCCS, in conjunction with the Department
of Economic Security (DES), verified the
immigration status of 36,284 individuals
between October 1, 2009 and December 31,
2009. During this period, AHCCCS and DES
did not identify any fraudulent documents
using the SAVE program. (Amy Upston)
Economic Estimates Commission – Report on
the Budget Stabilization Fund – Pursuant to
A.R.S. § 35-144F, the Economic Estimates
Commission (EEC) is annually required to
calculate the amount of monies that may be
deposited to or withdrawn from the Budget
Stabilization Fund (BSF). The EEC estimate is
calculated based on a formula that
compares the growth rate of real adjusted
Arizona personal income in the most recent
calendar year to the average in the last 7

calendar years (hereafter referred to as the
“trend” growth rate).
The formula recommends a BSF withdrawal
whenever the annual adjusted personal
income growth rate is both less than the trend
growth rate and 2%. According to a EEC
report issued May 27, 2010, the calendar year
2009 growth rate was (7.19)% compared to
the trend growth rate of 4.68%. Since both
requirements for a fund withdrawal were met,
the BSF formula recommends that $768.7
million be transferred to the General Fund in
FY 2010. This transfer cannot be
implemented, however, since the $(2.8)
million withdrawal authorized by Laws 2010,
7th Special Session, Chapter 1 brought the BSF
balance to $0. (Hans Olofsson)

10

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2010

May Spending
reflects a rollover of the monthly
payment, as was done in May of 2009.
Year to date University spending is $785.2
million, or $(46.8) million below FY 2009.

FY 2010 Spending
May 2010 spending of $257.1 million was $4.2
million higher than May 2009. For the year-todate, spending of $7.7 billion is ($1.2) billion
below 2009 (See Table 7).

•

The Arizona Department of Education
(ADE) has spent $3.2 billion year-to-date
in 2010, or $(487.0) million less than 2009.
In May, ADE spending was $(65.6) million
lower than the prior year. May
expenditures were lower than the prior
year due to ADE using $49.0 million in
Fiscal Stabilization Fund monies to offset
the General Fund Basic State Aid
payment to charter schools. Additionally,
ADE did not make $20 million in payments
to school districts because it had
exhausted its FY 2010 General Fund
appropriation.

•

Spending in AHCCCS and DHS is a
combined ($16.3) million less in May than
in 2009. This is generally consistent with
the FY 2010 budget assumption that
caseload growth in Medicaid spending in
those agencies would be offset by
varying degrees by enhanced federal
match from the federal stimulus
legislation.

•

University spending was $2.1 million in
May. The low expenditure amount

•

SFB spending is $99.7 million greater in
May than in 2009. This is due to the
repayment of a temporary General Fund
loan being accounted for as negative
spending in May of 2009.

Table 7
General Fund Spending ($ in Millions)

May 10
Agency
AHCCCS
Corrections
Economic Security
Education
Health Services
Public Safety
School Facilities Board
Universities
Other
Total

$114.2
59.4
17.4
21.9
8.5
1.7
0.1
2.1
31.8
$257.1

Change from
May 09
$(28.8)
(13.2)
14.9
(65.6)
(3.1)
(0.2)
99.7
2.8
(2.3)
$ 4.2

Year to
Date

YTD
Change
from FY 09

$1,190.4
779.6
527.5
3,170.1
477.1
40.4
104.7
785.2
601.2
$7,676.2

$(233.5)
(40.9)
(192.6)
(486.6)
(89.7)
(13.5)
16.5
(46.8)
(111.2)
$(1,198.3)

11

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2010

Table 8

Agency
Department of Administration
Office of Administrative Hearings
Department of Agriculture
AHCCCS
Arizona Commission on the Arts
Arizona Exposition and State Fair
Board
Attorney General
AZ Capital Post Conviction Public
Defender
State Board of Charter Schools
State Bd. of Chiropractic Exam.
Department of Commerce
Community Colleges
Corporation Commission
Department of Corrections
AZ Criminal Justice Commission
AZ State Board of Cosmetology
AZ St. Schools for the Deaf & Blind
Dept. of Economic Security
Department of Education
DEMA
Dept. of Environmental Quality
DEQ-WQARF
Office of Equal Opportunity
State Board of Equalization
Board of Executive Clemency
Dept. of Financial Institutions
Department of Fire, Life, Bldg Safety
State Board of Funeral Directors
Arizona Geological Survey
Government Information Tech.
Governor
Gov. - OSPB
Department of Health Services
Arizona Historical Society
Prescott Historical Society of AZ
Independent Redistricting Comm.
AZ Commission of Indian Affairs
Department of Insurance
Judiciary
Supreme Court
Superior Court
Court of Appeals
Dept. of Juvenile Corrections
State Land Department
Law Enforcement Merit System

General Fund Spending
($ in Thousands)
Change from
May 10
May 09
1,573.8
1,909.3
62.4
3.8
442.5
(87.2)
114,243.2
(28,764.2)
26.8
(54.4)
-

Year-to-Date
17,846.9
877.3
7,776.9
1,190,480.7
820.9
400.0

797.4
28.3

(273.4)
(10.9)

16,316.6
606.8

42.8
753.2
37.3
59,541.6
2,023.3
17,405.3
21,883.7
513.6
328.9
10.4
22.3
35.8
138.3
116.5
33.3
25.0
416.1
112.8
8,547.0
159.0
35.7
2.7
310.7

8.9
543.4
95.9
(13,218.7)
726.3
14,861.3
(65,594.9)
(546.9)
(408.4)
(18.2)
3.2
(24.6)
(21.1)
(67.8)
(83.0)
(16.9)
(27.8)
(40.9)
(3,072.9)
22.6
7.7
(7.5)
2.7
92.3

642.1
148.0
3,221.4
132,426.3
522.7
779,662.6
(4.6)
252.0
20,208.9
527,486.2
3,170,102.0
8,755.5
5,069.6
7,000.0
180.6
603.9
833.7
2,780.7
2,024.2
100.0
699.3
413.6
6,464.5
1,797.5
477,098.1
3,679.4
610.5
26.1
83.0
5,233.0

1,199.2
10,279.6
926.8
3,337.4
(1,563.6)
3.6

177.6
(1,128.1)
(64.9)
(956.7)
(2,198.7)
(1.9)

15,798.0
84,338.9
12,956.7
58,110.5
10,162.1
70.9

YTD Change from
FY ‘09
(6,004.6)
(176.8)
(1,778.3)
(233,518.8)
(594.3)
400.0
(2,813.8)
(92.3)
(139.1)
148.0
(23,038.3)
(3,309.5)
(3,479.9)
(40,852.1)
(1,190.2)
252.0
(1,832.7)
(192,550.6)
(486,589.0)
(1,764.1)
(440.3)
(6,000.0)
(23.8)
32.7
(138.0)
(339.2)
(775.4)
100.0
(138.5)
(968.1)
400.3
(134.7)
(89,720.4)
(197.6)
(17.0)
(201.1)
(108.8)
(917.9)
1,363.4
(3,938.1)
340.7
(7,854.1)
(5,084.8)
(0.7)

12

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – JUNE 2010

Agency
Legislature
Auditor General
House of Representatives
Joint Legislative Budget Comm.
Legislative Council
AZ Library and Archives
Senate
Dpt. of Liquor Licenses
Board of Medical Student Loans
Mine Inspector
Dpt. of Mines & Mineral Resources
Nav. Streams & Adjudication
State Board of Nursing
OSHA
Arizona State Parks Board
Personnel Board
Comm. for Postsecondary Ed.
State Board of Psychologist Exam.
Department of Public Safety
Arizona Department of Racing
Radiation Regulatory Agency
Arizona Rangers Pension
Real Estate Department
Department of Revenue
School Facilities Board
Secretary of State
Tax Appeals Board
Office of Tourism
Department of Transportation
State Treasurer
Universities
Board of Regents
Arizona State University
Northern Arizona University
University of Arizona
Department of Veteran Services
AZ State Veterinary Medical
Examining Board
Department of Water Resources
Dept. of Weights & Measures
Other
Grand Total

May 10

Change from
May 09

Year-to-Date

YTD Change from
FY ‘09

1,145.6
809.6
135.3
273.4
396.6
594.7
(45.5)
154.2
6.8
(1,900.0)
86.7
1,737.6
163.7
66.8
1.2
141.3
2,113.9
70.5
601.7
15.8
153.4

48.5
(107.4)
(15.0)
(36.4)
119.6
(43.6)
(182.9)
(139.3)
71.1
(11.9)
(1.0)
(342.3)
(17.8)
(17.1)
(211.7)
110.8
70.3
(13.4)
(1,267.4)
99,671.3
406.3
(1.7)
4.1
(7.9)

13,616.4
11,314.6
2,082.3
4,534.1
5,850.4
8,025.5
747.7
801.9
1,022.6
785.1
118.8
14.4
20,214.2
3,417.8
300.0
40,438.2
4,668.9
1,356.2
12.8
2,828.1
32,513.2
104,701.2
6,580.7
236.6
200.0
52.8
2,390.3

(2,042.2)
(409.6)
(171.2)
(7,474.5)
(340.6)
(63.1)
(2,857.8)
(199.1)
(368.9)
(103.4)
(144.9)
(95.4)
14.4
(3,122.4)
(305.9)
(679.7)
300.0
(13,518.2)
2,546.5
(245.2)
0.3
(609.9)
(28,450.9)
16,455.8
475.0
(9.5)
(112.2)
(5.2)
21.2

321.3
491.7
1,327.8
1,090.2
-

993.7
491.7
1,327.8
622.0
-

20,413.6
345,234.6
117,372.9
302,161.2
8,789.2
250.0

1,959.1
(23,293.1)
(6,616.8)
(18,873.4)
2,048.9
250.0

780.4
68.3
2,071.1
257,062.3

(709.7)
(12.8)
2,013.9
4,241.3

14,799.8
1,113.7
22,526.3
7,676,170.1

5,138.1
(175.6)
(3,535.6)
(1,198,300.8)