JLBC - Monthly Fiscal Highlights

1716 W. Adams
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Phone:
(602) 926-5491
Fax:
(602) 926-5416

Summary
November General Fund revenue collections
were $492.7 million, or (13.7)% below
November 2007. November collections were
$(131.4) million below forecast.

Revenues would need to grow by 6.1% for the
entire year to meet the budget forecast.
Given the decline of (9.8)% in the first 5 months,
revenues will fall significantly short of forecast.
As reported previously, the FY 2009 General
Fund shortfall is estimated to be $(1.2) billion.
The shortfall estimate will be updated when the
Finance Advisory Committee meets again in
mid-January.

For the first 5 months of FY 2009, General Fund
collections are down (9.8)% when compared
to last year (excluding Urban Revenue Sharing
and one-time transfers). The year-to-date
shortfall through the first 5 months of the fiscal
year is $(573.7) million. (See Table 1 and page
2 for more information).
www.azleg.gov/jlbc.htm

“November
collections were
$(131.4) million
below forecast”.

December 2008

Economic Indicators – The job market in
Arizona continues to weaken (see page 3).
The state shed (83,100) jobs year-over-year in
November. This figure represents a decline of
(3.1)%, the largest year-over-year reduction of
the Arizona work force since July 1975.
Personal income in the 3rd quarter of 2008 grew
by 2.2% compared to the same time period
last year. The personal income growth rate has
not been so low since 1954.

The state’s two largest revenues categories
experienced double digit percent declines:
• November sales tax collections were down
(13.3)% compared to November 2007 and
were $(67.5) million short of the monthly
forecast. November marked the 11th
consecutive month of year-over-year
reductions. The November results, which
reflect October sales, were not surprising.
Since the steep decline in the national
economy in mid-September, consumer
confidence has dropped substantially. The
November numbers reflect the first full
month of collections since the downturn
accelerated.

JLBC/JCCR Meetings – The Monthly Fiscal
Highlights include a summary of the December
JLBC meeting (page 7). There was no JCCR
meeting in December.

• November individual income tax collections
were down (14.8)% compared to
November 2007 and were $(50.1) million
below forecast.

Table of Contents
November Revenues ............................................. 2
Economic Indicators.............................................. 3
JLBC Meeting Summary

This report has been
prepared for the Arizona
Legislature by the Joint
Legislative Budget
Committee Staff on
December 31, 2008.

•
•
•
•
•

ADOA – Emergency Telecommunications .... 7
Commerce – 21st Century Fund ....................... 7
ADEQ –Water Quality Permit Processing ........ 7
DOR – Data Center Expenditure Plan............. 7
DOR – FY 2009 Enforcement Goals.................. 7

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
• ADOA/GITA – Business Intelligence Software 7

•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

ADC – Report on Bed Plan ............................... 7
DES – Domestic Violence Funding................... 8
ADE – K-12 Excess Utilities................................... 8
DEQ – Particulate Enforcement ....................... 8
State Mine Inspector – Abandoned
Mines Expenditures and Contributions ........... 8
DPS/ADC – Combat Gang Activity................. 8
SFB – Report on Funding Estimates .................. 8
ABOR/ACC – Report on Articulation .............. 9
ABOR – Credit Hour Student Counts .............. 9
ABOR – Loan Forgiveness Program ................. 9
ABOR – University System’s Financial Aid........ 9

2

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2008

November Revenues
Table 1

November General Fund Revenues
Compared to Enacted Forecast and FY 2008 Collections
($ in Millions)
FY 2009
Difference From
Difference
Collections
June ‘08 Forecast
From FY 2008
November
$492.7
$(131.4)
$(78.5)
Year-to-Date
$3,375.9
$(573.7)
$(178.1)
Sales Tax collections were $317.5 million in
November. These revenues were down
(13.3)% compared to last November, and were
$(67.5) million below forecast. Table 2 displays
the November growth rates for the largest
categories.
“Sales Tax
collections
were…down
(13.3)%
compared to last
November, and
were $(67.5)
million below
forecast”.

Table 2

Table 4

Sales Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

Retail
Contracting
Utilities
Use
Restaurant & Bar

Oct
(15.1)%
(19.9)%
1.3%
(15.5)%
(6.0)%

YTD
(9.7)%
(18.3)%
6.1%
(3.4)%
(5.2)%

As noted in previous months, retail and contracting together account for two-thirds of all
sales tax revenues. The retail sector decreased
by (15.1)% and contracting fell by (19.9)%.
For October (the latest available subcategory
data), taxable sales in the retail category are
down (8.4)% from the prior year. The largest
subcategory within retail is the General
Merchandise and Miscellaneous Retail
category, which is down (3.1)%. The largest
subcategory decline is in Motor Vehicles,
which represents over 21.5% of the total, and is
down (28.9)% compared to the prior year.
Taxable retail sales by category are shown in
Table 3. (Eric Jorgensen)
Table 3

Individual Income Tax collections were $200.3
million in November, or (14.8)% below last year.
November collections were $(50.1) million less
than forecast. Table 4 displays November and
year-to-date growth rates for individual
categories.
Individual Income Tax Growth Rates
Compared to Prior Year

Withholding
Estimated +
Final Payments
Refunds

November
(6.3)%
(28.6)%

YTD
(1.9)%
(19.7)%

(26.4)%

6.9%

There were 2 fewer processing days in
November this year than in the same month
last year. December has 2 more processing
days, and based on preliminary numbers, it
appears that some of the revenue loss from
last month will be made up in December.
(Hans Olofsson)
Corporate Income Tax gross collections were
$(2.5) million less than refunds in November.
Total net collections were $(5.7) million below
forecast for the month. Although November is
not a large collection month for corporate
income tax, the monthly decrease brings the
category to $(115.5) million below forecast for
the first 5 months of the fiscal year. (Martin
Lorenzo)

October Taxable Retail Sales by Subcategory

General/Misc. Merchandise
Motor Vehicles/Misc. Auto.
Bldg Materials and Supplies
Food and Liquor Stores
Furniture, Home Furnishings
Clothing and Accessories
Manufacturing
Other Subcategories
Total

% of
Total Sales
30.1%
21.5%
7.5%
7.3%
6.9%
5.8%
5.6%
15.3%
100.0%

% Change
Over FY 2008
(3.1)%
(28.9)%
(11.6)%
(0.7)%
(12.1)%
(10.1)%
(5.4)%
9.2%
(8.4)%

3

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2008

November Revenues

“The U.S.

The Lottery Commission reports that ticket sales
for the month of November were (10.7)% lower
than November of last year. Year-to-date,
ticket sales are down (3.3)% compared to last
year. Based on Laws 2008, Chapter 287, the

(Continued)

General Fund is expected to receive a total of
$57 million in lottery revenue distributions in
FY 2009. Through November, a total of $22.5
million has been deposited into the General
Fund.

Consumer Price
Index fell by

Economic Indicators

(1.7)% in
November, the
largest decline in
the 61-year
history of the
index”.

NATIONAL
The final estimate of 3rd quarter Gross
Domestic Product growth was (0.5)%, the
same as the preliminary estimate released last
month. The advance estimate of 4th quarter
GDP growth will be released at the end of
January and is expected to show a sizeable
contraction of the U.S. economy. The
consensus forecast among the 50 panelists of
the National Blue Chip publication is a 4th
quarter decline of (4.1)%.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer
Confidence Index for December fell to the
lowest level since the survey began in 1967.
At a reading of 38.0, the index was (15.0)%
below the level reported for the prior month
and (58.1)% less than a year ago. Consumer
confidence has deteriorated rapidly since the
onset of the financial crises in September.
The Conference Board’s U.S. Index of Leading
Economic Indicators declined by (0.4)% in
November. Year-over-year, the index is down
(3.7)%. Six of the 10 components that make up
the composite index declined during the
month. Most of the negative pressure on the
index came from rising jobless claims and
falling stock prices and building permits. The
only significant positive contributors to the
index were money supply and the interest rate
spread. These 2 components have shown
large increases in each of the last 3 months
due to recent efforts by the Federal Reserve
Board to restore liquidity to financial markets.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index fell by (1.7)% in
November, the largest decline in the 61-year
history of the index. The record large decline
last month was mainly attributable to a (17.0)%
reduction in energy prices. Gasoline prices
alone fell by (29.5)% in November. The core
CPI, which excludes food and energy prices,
was unchanged.

ARIZONA
The state of the Arizona economy has
worsened considerably over the last 6
months. The deterioration of economic
conditions is no longer limited to the real
estate and construction sectors. Signs of
economic malaise can be found in most
areas of the state’s economy as evidenced
by both new employment and personal
income statistics.
The Arizona Department of Commerce
reported that the state lost (83,100) or (3.1)%
of nonfarm jobs in November compared to
the same month last year. In only 4 months
out of the last 48 years did the state record a
larger job loss (in percentage terms) than in
November. Those job losses occurred
between April and July of 1975.
This month’s release of construction sector
employment shows that the year-over-year
loss improved from (17.3)% in October to
(16.5)% in November. The year-over-year
losses appear to be bottoming out as these
figures have stayed largely unchanged over
the last 4 months.
While the manufacturing sector is also being
affected by the deteriorating economy, the
job losses are nowhere near the levels
recorded during the last recession in 2001.
Year-over-year job losses since the start of the
current recession (December 2007) have
never exceeded (4,400) compared to
(21,300) during the 2001/2002 recession. The
industry shed 500 jobs from October to
November. Its work force is now (1.9)%
smaller than this time last year.
Unlike the 1990/1991 and 2001 recessions, the
service-providing sectors of the Arizona
economy have been far more negatively
impacted this time. The state did not

4

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2008

Economic Indicators
experience any year-over-year job losses in its
service-providing industries during the
1990/1991 recession and the losses never
exceeded (5,900) during the 2001 recession.
By way of comparison, the job loss in
November totaled (44,200) and appears to
be accelerating.

“The state’s
unemployment
rate increased to
6.3% from 6.1% in
the prior month.
The last time the
state
experienced
such a high
unemployment
rate was in
August 1994.”

November was the 7th consecutive month
with rising unemployment. The state’s
unemployment rate increased to 6.3% from
6.1% in the prior month. The last time the state
experienced such a high unemployment rate
was in August 1994. The nation’s
unemployment rate in October was 6.5%.
The Department of Commerce reported that
30,663 initial claims for unemployment
insurance were recorded in November, an
increase of 104.2% over last year. This was the
largest year-over-year increase in initial jobless
claims (in percentage terms) since the fall of
1974.
The federal Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) has recently released state personal
income figures for the third quarter of 2008.
Quarter over quarter, Arizona personal
income declined at a seasonally adjusted
annual rate of (0.3)%. Year-over-year,
personal income grew by 2.2%, the 48th
slowest growth rate in the nation after Florida
and Connecticut. The last time Arizona
experienced a lower year-over-year growth
rate was in the first quarter of 1954. Only
Arizona and Utah had negative wage growth
in the quarter-over-quarter percent personal
income data.
There was ample evidence of continued
weakness in the housing market and related
permitting activity in November. Between
August and October, the number of
authorized building permits statewide (3month moving average) totaled 1,620,
including 1,130 single-family residential
building permits and 490 multi-family building
permits. Compared to the prior month,
permitting activity in the single family and
multi-family segments have decreased by
(21.1)% and (10.0)%, respectively. Year-overyear, authorized permits in the single family
segment are down by (50.6)%, while permits in
the more volatile multi-family segment are
down by (37.9)%. According to the U.S.
Census Bureau, 16,370 single-family permits

(Continued)

were issued statewide in the first 10 months of
the current year. Calendar year 2008 is
expected to have the lowest number of
single-family permits since at least 1991.
While the number of permits have fallen,
housing sales continue to recover. According
to the National Association of Realtors,
Arizona was one of only 4 states in the nation
that recorded an increase in existing homes
sales in October. The increase in these states
(Arizona, California, Nevada, and Virginia)
can be attributed to the large volume of
foreclosed homes for sale in these markets.
Housing data for November released by ASU’s
Realty Studies shows that foreclosures
continue to constitute an increasing share of
the total sales of existing homes in Greater
Phoenix. According to Realty Studies, 47.9%
of all single-family homes resold in November
were foreclosures. The same figure last year
was 30.2%.
The total number of single-family homes
resold in November was 6,465, including 3,370
traditional sales and 3,095 foreclosures. The
year-over-year increase for traditional home
sales was 30.6% compared to 177.6% for
foreclosed properties.
The number of foreclosure sales continue to
place downward pressure on housing prices.
Based on the November report, the Greater
Phoenix single-family median resale home
price was $162,000 for traditional homes and
$155,100 for foreclosed properties. Year-overyear, the median resale price has fallen by
(34.9)% for traditional single-family units and
(26.8)% for foreclosed properties. The
negative impact on the pricing of nonforeclosed homes from the increasing number
of foreclosures can be inferred from ASU’s
data. In terms of the median price per square
foot, traditional homes now command
approximately the same sale price as
foreclosed properties. In May, traditional
homes cost 18% more than comparable
foreclosed properties.
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index is a
measure of the change in housing prices
based on repeat sales. According to the
most recent release of this index, Phoenix
home prices declined year-over-year by
(32.7)% in October. By way of comparison,
the average price decline for the 20

5

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2008

Economic Indicators
metropolitan areas in the index was (18.0)%.
Additionally, October marked the third
consecutive month in which Phoenix led the
nation in home price declines. Home prices in
Phoenix, as reflected by the index, are now
comparable to levels recorded in June 2004.
Based on MLS data, it is estimated that the
month’s supply of housing increased from 9.8
months in October to 11.4 months in
November. While this remains a high figure, it
nonetheless constitutes (4.1) fewer months
than in November 2007. In a normal market
there is typically no more than 4 to 5 months’
supply of housing on the MLS.
“The last time the
airport
experienced a
larger
comparable
year-over-year
decline in air
passenger traffic
was in August
2002.”

Total passenger traffic recorded in October at
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport was
(9.6)% below the same month in the prior
year. Year-to-date, a total of 33.8 million
passengers have entered and exited aircraft
at Sky Harbor. This figure represents a decline
of (5.0)% relative to the first 10 months of 2007.
The last time the airport experienced a larger
comparable year-over-year decline in air
passenger traffic was in August 2002.
The state posted a surprisingly large
population gain in 2008. The Census Bureau
reported that Arizona’s population grew to an
estimated 6,500,180 in 2008, an increase of
146,759 or 2.3% from 2007. While this growth
rate is the lowest since 1991, it still remains the
second fastest in the nation.
AHCCCS caseloads in December increased by
1.4%, or 16,230 members, to 1,152,698. At
current levels, the AHCCCS caseloads are 6.7%
above December 2007 levels. The FY 2009
budget funded a projected caseload growth
of 2.6%, or a total of 1,189,224 members.
There were a reported 83,702 TANF recipients
in the state in October, an increase of 2.4%
from the prior month. Year-over-year,
caseload is down (1.0)%. The FY 2009
budget assumes the TANF caseload will grow
by 2.5%.
The Department of Corrections’ (ADC) inmate
population increased by an average of 125
inmates per month between September and
November. ADC now has an average
population of 39,426 inmates, or 1,796 more
inmates than in the same period last year.
(Hans Olofsson, Martin Lorenzo)

(Continued)

6

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2008

Economic Indicators

(Continued)

Table 5

ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Indicator
Arizona
- Unemployment Rate
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Non-Farm Employment – Total
Manufacturing
Construction
- Contracting Tax Receipts (3-month average)
- Retail Sales Tax Receipts (3-month average)
- Residential Building Permits (3-month moving average)
Single-unit
Multi-unit
- Greater Phoenix Existing Home Sales
Single-Family, Traditional Sales
Single-Family, Foreclosed Sales
Townhouse/Condominium, Traditional Sales
Townhouse/Condominium, Foreclosed Sales
- Greater Phoenix Median Home Sales Price
Single-Family, Traditional Sales
Single-Family, Foreclosed Sales
Townhouse/Condominium, Traditional Sales
Townhouse/Condominium, Foreclosed Sales
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jan. 2000 = 100)
- Months Supply of Housing, SA (ARMLS)
- Phoenix Sky Harbor Air Passengers
- Arizona Average Natural Gas Price
($ per thousand cubic feet)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Business Leaders Confidence Index
- Arizona Personal Income
- Arizona Population
- AHCCCS Recipients
- TANF Recipients
- DOC Inmate Growth (3-month average)
United States
- Real Gross Domestic Product
(seasonally adjusted annual growth rate)
- Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
- Leading Indicators Index (2004 = 100)
- U.S. Semiconductor Billings (3-month moving average)
- Consumer Price Index, SA (1982-84 = 100)

Time Period

Current Value

Change From
Prior Period

Change From
Prior Year

November
November
November
November
November
Sep-Nov
Sep-Nov

6.3%
30,363
2.61 million
177,600
179,600
$62.0 million
$141.0 million

0.2%
(1.0)%
0.1%
(0.3)%
(1.5)%
(2.4)%
(2.3)%

2.2%
104.2%
(3.1)%
(1.9)%
(16.5)%
(18.9)%
(9.7)%

Aug-Oct
Aug-Oct

1,130
490

(21.1)%
(10.0)%

(50.6)%
(37.9)%

November
November
November
November

3,370
3,095
305
265

(24.5)%
(17.4)%
(38.4)%
(25.4)%

30.6%
177.6%
(53.8)%
253.3%

November
November
November
November
October
November
October
September

$162,000
$155,100
$162,000
$115,835
135.18
11.4 months
3.1 million
$6.50

(7.4)%
(2.9)%
0.1%
(3.0)%
(3.3)%
1.6 months
11.1%
(13.7)%

(34.9)%
(26.8)%
(24.6)%
(21.7)%
(32.7)%
(4.1) months
(9.6)%
(6.6)%

2nd Quarter 2008
4th Quarter 2008
3rd Quarter 2008
July 1, 2008
December
October
Sept-Nov

73.4
42.4
$214.8 billion
6.50 million
1,152,698
83,702
39,426

(8.0)%
10.1%
(0.3)%
146,759
1.4%
2.4%
125 inmates

(31.0)%
(0.2)%
2.2%
2.3%
6.7%
(1.0)%
1,796 inmates

3rd Quarter 2008

$11.7 trillion

(0.5)%

0.7%

December
November
Aug-Oct
November

38.0
99.0
$3.21 billion
213.06

(15.0)%
(0.4)%
0.0%
(1.7)%

(56.5)%
(3.7)%
(16.9)%
1.0%

7

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2008

JLBC Meeting
At its December 19, 2008 meeting, the Joint
Legislative Budget Committee considered the
following issues:
Department of Administration – Review of
Emergency Telecommunication Fund
Expenditure Plan – The Chairman decided to
take no action regarding ADOA’s
expenditure plan due to budget concerns.
Monies from the fund are used to improve
and maintain 911 services at the county and
city level. The FY 2009 expenditure plan
included $7.5 million for wireless services and
$20.8 million for wire service expenditures. The
fund balance is $20.7 million and some of
these monies could be transferred to the
General Fund to resolve the budget shortfall.
Department of Commerce – Review of
Memorandum of Understanding for the
Arizona 21st Century Fund – As with the prior
item, the Chairman decided to take no
action regarding the Department of
Commerce’s Memorandum of Understanding
(MOU) with Science Foundation Arizona
(SFAz). In FY 2009, the Arizona 21st Century
Fund was appropriated $22.5 million. The
budget shortfall may require the Legislature to
reconsider the funding level of this program.

Department of Environmental Quality – Review
of Water Quality Permit Processing Times – The
Committee gave a favorable review to the
Department of Environmental Quality’s (DEQ)
processing times for water quality permits. Of
the 45 permit types listed, on average DEQ
met the Licensing Timeframe (LTF) for all but 2
permit types.
Department of Revenue – Review of FY 2009
Data Center Expenditure Plan – The
Committee gave a favorable review of the
Department of Revenue’s (DOR) request for
FY 2009 data center expenditure plan. Under
this plan, DOR estimates expenditures of $1.2
million for contracting out data center
services which is $480,000 less than the
annualized cost of the prior contract.
Department of Revenue – Review of FY 2009
General Fund Revenue Enforcement Goals –
The Committee gave a favorable review of
the enforcement goals of the Department of
Revenue (DOR). DOR’s General Fund
revenue enforcement goal for FY 2009 is
$361.3 million, which is $(29.4) million, or (7.5)%,
below their FY 2008 actual collections. The
reduction reflects the difficulty in maintaining
enforcement revenues during an economic
downturn.

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
Department of Administration/Government
Information Technology Agency (ADOA/GITA)
– Report on Business Intelligence Software –
Pursuant to Laws 2008, Chapter 285, ADOA
and GITA have surveyed state agencies to
determine their current and future usage of
business intelligence software (BI). BI software
automatically aggregates and summarizes
large amounts of data for management
purposes. For example, some states use BI to
track welfare recipients across multiple
programs or agencies to reduce the
incidence of fraud. ADOA and GITA received
responses from 42 of the 95 agencies
surveyed. Of those agencies responding, 22
reported current use of BI software at some
level. Currently, no agency has plans to
implement BI agencywide. (Dan Hunting)

State Department of Corrections – Report on
Bed Plan – The State Department of
Corrections (ADC) has provided a report to
JLBC Staff with updated information related
to their bed plan. Laws 2007, Chapter 261
authorized the Arizona Department of
Administration to contract for 2,000 new
private prison beds, as well as the
construction of 4,000 new public beds. The
latter is to be funded via a 20-year, $200
million lease-purchase agreement.
2,000 Private Beds
In November, Management and Training
Corporation secured financing to build and
operate 2,000 new private prison beds
located in Kingman, AZ. Arizona inmates are
anticipated to begin being transferred to the
facility in January 2010.

8

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2008

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
4,000 Public Beds
In September, construction began on the
4,000 state beds. They include: 1,000 female
beds in Perryville, 1,000 male beds in Tucson,
and 2,000 male beds in Yuma. Construction is
anticipated to be completed February 2010.
Provisional Beds
Beyond the private and public beds, ADC is
also renting temporary provisional beds.
Recent updates are as follows:
•

•

The ADC Procurement Office continues to
evaluate and discuss responses to an RFP
issued for 1,200 beds. To generate
additional savings in the Provisional Beds
Special Line Item, ADC has slowed the
opening of these beds.
ADC has begun increasing the number of
filled beds at the Hinton, Oklahoma
facility from 916 beds to an anticipated
1,980 beds. The occupancy of all 1,980
beds is anticipated to occur by January
2009. (Martin Lorenzo)

Department of Economic Security – Report on
Domestic Violence Funding – Pursuant to a
General Appropriation Act Footnote, the
Department of Economic Security (DES) is
submitting its annual report on state and
federal domestic violence funds. There is a
total of $26.1 million currently used by 6 state
entities for domestic violence services, an
increase of $2.9 million (12%) from FY 2007.
The primary recipient of increased monies
was DES.
(Jay Chilton)
Arizona Department of Education – Report on
K-12 Excess Utilities – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15910.03, the Arizona Department of Education
(ADE) recently submitted a report on school
district “excess utilities.” Total statewide
school district utility costs were $262 million for
FY 2008, of which $86 million was funded
through excess utilities. These data are
incomplete, however, as 89 school districts
did not submit reports to ADE for FY 2008.
(Steve Schimpp)
Department of Environmental Quality – Report
on Particulate Enforcement – Pursuant to
Laws 2007, Chapter 292, Section 23, Maricopa
County and cities within the county are
required to report on efforts to reduce
particulate pollution. The county and 11 of 23

(Continued)

cities have submitted reports to JLBC as of
December 24. Reports were not received
from Carefree, El Mirage, Fountain Hills,
Gilbert, Goodyear, Guadalupe, Litchfield
Park, Peoria, Queen Creek, Scottsdale,
Tolleson, and Youngtown. The submissions
show that a total of 16 miles of streets and 41
miles of alleys have been paved or stabilized
since the last reports were issued in June.
There were a total of 1,554 violations. (Dan
Hunting)
State Mine Inspector – Report on Abandoned
Mines Safety Fund – The State Mine Inspector
is required by A.R.S. § 27-131 to establish a
program to locate, inventory, classify, and
eliminate public safety hazards at
abandoned mines.
For FY 2008, the State Mine Inspector has
recently reported that the AMSF had
revenues of $85,700. The State Mine Inspector
secured 32 mines covering 11 mine sites
during FY 2008, at a total cost of $13,800. The
Mine Inspector has completed preliminary
planning for an additional 68 projects across
13 mine sites, with an estimated cost of
$104,000. (Jack Brown)
Department of Public Safety/State Department
of Corrections – Report on Collaborative
Efforts and Procedures to Combat Gang
Activity – Laws 2008, Chapter 285 specifies
the State Department of Corrections (ADC)
shall work with the Department of Public
Safety’s (DPS) Gang and Immigration
Intelligence Team Enforcement Mission
(GIITEM) to combat gang activity. Highlights
of this report are as follows:
•

•

ADC and DPS have finalized an
Interagency Service Agreement which
enables DPS to fund 85% of the personnel
costs for 3 new ADC investigators and 2
new GangNet (the GIITEM gang member
database) data entry positions.
ADC is in the process of authorizing
GIITEM personnel remote access to select
ADC systems and databases. (Martin
Lorenzo)

School Facilities Board – Report on Funding
Estimates – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-2002, the
School Facilities Board (SFB) is required to
report the estimated amounts necessary in FY
2010.

9

JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2008

Summary of Recent Agency Reports
In FY 2010, SFB estimates a total
funding requirement of $493.6
million, including $265.7 million for
the New School Facilities Program
and $227.9 million for the Building
Renewal Program. The new
construction estimate assumes the
current building moratorium is lifted
in FY 2010. The Building Renewal
amount is based on the current
statutory formula, which was
suspended in FY 2009 in favor of a
$20.0 million discretionary grant
program. (Leatta McLaughlin)
Arizona Board of Regents/Arizona
Community Colleges – Report on
Articulation – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 151824, the Arizona Board of Regents
and the community colleges are
required to submit an annual report
of their progress on both articulation
and meeting statewide
postsecondary education needs by
December 15.This year’s progress in
implementing the transfer model
and support systems include:
•

•

•

More than 5,200 community
college students completed the
Arizona General Education
Curriculum, which satisfies lower
division general education
requirements at the universities.
This is a 4% increase over last
year and a 160% increase over
2002 (when tracking first
began).
A new statewide Web site was
launched in August 2008.
Redesigning the website was
one of the recommendations in
the study of Arizona’s
articulation system completed
in 2007.
Test score acceptance was
standardized among
community colleges and
universities for the majority of
Advanced Placement and
College Level Examination
Program exams. Students who
take these exams may receive
college credit if they achieve a
predetermined score.
(Leah Kritzer)

Arizona Board of Regents – Report on
Credit Hour Threshold FTE Student
Counts – Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-1626,
the Arizona Board of Regents (ABOR)
is required to report on the number
of students that met or exceeded
the undergraduate credit hour
threshold. ABOR reports that 291 fulltime equivalent (FTE) students were
over the 150 credit hour threshold in
the fall 2008 semester. (Leah Kritzer)
Arizona Board of Regents – Report on
Loan Forgiveness Program – Pursuant
to A.R.S. § 15-1782, the Arizona Board
of Regents (ABOR) recently reported
on the progress of the Mathematics,
Science, and Special Education
Teacher Loan Forgiveness Program.
The program allows ABOR to grant
up to 5-year forgivable loans to instate students who agree to teach in
a public school.
For the spring 2008 semester, there
were 76 recipients. In fall 2008, 42 of
these recipients renewed their loan
in addition to 56 new loan recipients,
for a total of 98 students receiving
loans. Teacher retention data is not
yet applicable, since the program
began in spring 2008. (Leah Kritzer)
Arizona Board of Regents – Report on
University System’s Financial Aid –
Pursuant to A.R.S. § 15-1650, the
Arizona Board of Regents is required
to submit an annual report on
financial aid. Highlights from the FY
2008 report include:
•
•

•
•

Approximately $1.06 billion in
total financial aid was provided
to students.
Of this amount, $450.5 million
(42.5%) came from federal
sources, $391.7 million (37.1%)
came from state institutional
sources, $204.7 million (19.4%)
came from private sources, and
$10.1 (1.0%) came from state
scholarships, grants and loans.
A total of 94,625 students
received aid.
Of those students, 19,191
received non-need-based gift

(Continued)

•
•
•

aid, 31,785 received needbased gift aid, and 27,106 were
awarded miscellaneous types
of non-gift aid (i.e. work study).
The average aid package was
$8,808, which includes both
need and non-need-based aid.
53% of undergraduate students
and 53.7% of graduate students
have debt.
Upon graduation, the average
undergraduate student debt
was $17,572, while the average
graduate student debt was
$34,288.
(Leah Kritzer)

10 JLBC – MONTHLY FISCAL HIGHLIGHTS – DECEMBER 2008

State of Arizona
General Fund Revenue:

Change from Previous Year and Enacted Forecast
November 2008
Current Month

FY 2009 YTD (Five Months)

Change From
November 2007

Actual
November 2008

Percent

Amount

Change from
Forecast
Percent

Amount

November 2007

Actual
November 2008

Forecast

Percent

Amount

Percent

Amount

Taxes
Sales and Use

317,474,089

($48,610,068)

Income - Individual

200,335,179

(34,873,123)

- Corporate

(13.3) %
(14.8)

($67,462,611)
(50,147,521)

$1,698,495,193

($167,780,712)

(20.0)

(17.5) %

1,313,410,176

(93,366,415)

(6.6)

(9.0) %

($269,122,007)
(173,945,424)

(13.7) %
(11.7)

(2,488,394)

154,820

(5.9)

(5,735,394)

--

193,202,202

(100,776,406)

(34.3)

(115,549,098)

(37.4)

Property

3,452,620

(387,175)

(10.1)

(2,513,680)

(42.1)

5,766,902

(14,133)

(0.2)

(2,922,398)

(33.6)

Luxury

5,214,958

(284,192)

(5.2)

(36,342)

(0.7)

24,627,380

(335,260)

(1.3)

--

127,155,322

Insurance Premium

226,955

604,652

Estate

100,117

74,101

284.8

100,117

38,959

(5,316)

(12.0)

(13,541)

$524,354,483

($83,326,301)

Other Taxes
Sub-Total Taxes

--

(13.7) %

226,955

($125,582,017)

6,588,682

5.5

(709,920)
15,928,522

--

104,313

(156,465)

(60.0)

104,313

(25.8)

225,066

(16,880)

(7.0)

(37,434)

$3,362,986,554

($355,857,589)

(19.3) %

(9.6) %

($546,253,446)

(2.8)
14.3
-(14.3)
(14.0) %

Other Revenue
Lottery

8,132,300

License, Fees and Permits

3,275,005

(18,170)

Interest

1,376,336

(6,260,277)

(82.0)

(3,325,464)

Sales and Services

3,274,661

(602,901)

(15.5)

(1,433,439)

--

(2,215,905)

Other Miscellaneous
Disproportionate Share
Transfers and Reimbursements
Sub-Total Other Revenue
TOTAL BASE REVENUE

(318,205)

5,924,600

(1,716,890)

0

0

13,284,198

11,050,234

29,024,295
$553,378,778

8,376,596
($74,949,705)

268.4
(0.6)

-494.6

0
(518,795)

0
1,704,398

0.0

22,518,700

(13.7)

14,653,969

(938,669)

(70.7)

7,966,655

(30.4)

15,190,030

--14.7

8,784,181

64.0

0

0.0

(6.0)

(6,247,331)

(39,104,329)

(83.1)

(11,363,645)

(58.8)

(1,974,228)

(11.5)

(7,170,870)

(32.1)

19,432,556

8,344,915

75.3

8,531,756

78.3

0

0

20,834,765

5,023,878

-31.8

0
5,254,965

(29.9)

-33.7

40.6 %

(5,789,205)

(16.6) %

100,596,675

(19,864,252)

(16.5) %

(10,995,125)

(9.9) %

(11.9) %

($131,371,222)

(19.2) %

$3,463,583,229

($375,721,841)

(9.8) %

($557,248,571)

(13.9) %

Other Adjustments
Urban Revenue Sharing
Budget Plan Transfers
Sub-Total Other Adjustments
TOTAL REVENUE

(60,639,783)
0
(60,639,783)
$492,738,995

(3,594,872)
0

6.3
--

(3,594,872)

6.3 %

($78,544,577)

(13.7) %

0
0
0
($131,371,222)

0.0
-0.0 %
(21.0) %

(303,198,915)

(17,974,362)

215,546,792

215,546,792

(87,652,123)
$3,375,931,106

197,572,430
($178,149,411)

6.3
--

0
(16,404,600)

0.0
(7.1)

(69.3) %

(16,404,600)

23.0 %

(5.0) %

($573,653,171)

(14.5) %