ARIZONA HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND Forecasting Process & Results FY 2014‐2023 Financial Management Services November 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 1 Background 1 Risk Analysis Panel 2 Model Results 2 Summary 3 Supplementary Information 1. HURF Official Revenue Forecast 2. HURF Revenue Risk Analysis Results by Probability 3. HURF Official Revenue Forecast Distribution 4. Panel Data Values 5. Panel Members Inputs by Independent Variable 6. Independent Variable Historical Values 4 5 6 7‐10 11‐15 16‐20 ARIZONA HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES Introduction This document presents the forecast of expected values for the Arizona Highway User Revenue Fund for the period FY 2014‐2023, as prepared by the Arizona Department of Transportation. Background The State of Arizona taxes motor fuels and collects a variety of fees relating to the registration and operation of motor vehicles in the state. These collections include gasoline and use fuel taxes, motor carrier fees, vehicle license taxes, motor vehicle registration fees, and other miscellaneous fees. These revenues are deposited in the Arizona Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) and are then distributed to the cities, towns and counties of the State and to the State Highway Fund, which is administered by the Department. These taxes and fees represent a source of revenues available to the state for highway related expenses. Since 1986, the Department has estimated Highway Revenues using a comprehensive regression‐ based econometric model. In 1989, the model was updated by Dr. Alberta Charney of the University of Arizona. The model relied on the estimates of certain “independent variables” to predict future tax revenues. Any variability between estimated and actual values could lead to variances in the tax forecast. In order to deal with this variability, the Department introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies upon probability analysis and the independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. This results in a series of forecasts with specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate. In 1997, Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB), working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State University, developed a new forecasting model to incorporate certain economic data generated over the past ten years and evaluate the inclusion of independent variables absent from the 1989 model, to enhance the model’s forecasting accuracy. The new model also took into consideration 1997 legislation which eliminated the weight distance tax on motor carriers, increased weight and use fees for use class vehicles, and changed the point of taxation on fuel. In September 2000 and 2003, HLB reviewed the model and updated the equations. The independent variables contained in the model in 2003 included Arizona Real Income Growth Per Capita, Population Growth, Wage & Salary Employment Growth and Fleet Fuel Efficiency. In 2005, HDR\HLB developed a new forecasting model to incorporate additional economic data that would enhance the model’s forecasting accuracy. The Arizona Real Gross Domestic Product Growth independent variable was added to the model to incorporate the impact of the Arizona economy on the commercial registration activities. In September 2008, HDR\HLB reviewed the forecasting model and added the Arizona Real Gas Price Growth independent variable to improve the model’s forecasting accuracy for changes in Arizona gasoline consumption. In September 2009, HDR\HLB reviewed the forecasting model and added November 2013 1 the West Coast No. 2 Real Diesel Price Growth independent variable to improve the model’s forecasting accuracy for changes in Arizona use fuel (diesel) consumption. In September 2011, the income, gross domestic product, gas price and diesel price variables were converted to nominal dollars at the request of the panel members from the August 2010 RAP panel meeting. The September 2011 RAP panel recommended the Arizona nominal Gross Domestic Product independent variable be eliminated from the model. The current model includes: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Arizona nominal personal income Arizona population Arizona non‐farm employment Arizona fleet fuel efficiency (Not part of RAP Process) Arizona nominal gas price West Coast No. 2 nominal diesel price Risk Analysis Panel The Risk Analysis Process relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economic and financial participants to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In August 2013, a panel of thirteen economic and finance experts representing public, private, and academic sectors submitted their individual estimates of the model’s independent variables and comments on the future economic outlook. The information gathered from the panelists was input into the model to produce a series of forecasts with associated probabilities of occurrence. The panelists’ inputs are reflected in the attached tables at the back of this report. Model Results This year’s panel inputs produced a mean forecast of $14,706.0 million for the period FY 2014‐2023 with a compound growth rate of 3.6 percent. The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2014‐2023 amounts to $14,271.4 million with a compound growth rate of 3.4 percent. The Official Forecast incorporates the 50 percent confidence interval for all revenue categories. The FY 2014 forecast of $1,224.3 million was developed in July 2013 by ADOT staff using time‐series techniques, historical and projected growth rates, and recent legislative changes. FY 2014 Official Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total Ave. CGR November 2013 Mean Forecast $1,238.0 1,281.3 1,337.9 1,391.7 1,447.2 1,499.5 1,550.2 1,600.2 1,652.1 1,707.8 $14,706.0 3.6% Official Forecast $1,224.3 1,255.4 1,302.3 1,351.8 1,400.0 1,448.9 1,499.0 1,545.7 1,596.3 1,647.6 $14,271.4 3.4% Confidence Level 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 2 For comparison purposes, the October 2012 Official Forecast and the November 2013 Official Forecast are shown below: FY 2014‐2023 Comparative Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total Ave. CGR Oct. 12 Official Forecast $1,244.9 1,283.8 1,330.6 1,377.4 1,429.3 1,484.0 1,537.8 1,592.8 1,645.3 1,698.3 $14,624.2 3.5% Nov. 13 Official Forecast $1,224.3 1,255.4 1,302.3 1,351.8 1,400.0 1,448.9 1,499.0 1,545.7 1,596.3 1,647.6 $14,271.4 3.4% Difference ($20.6) (28.4) (28.3) (25.6) (29.3) (35.1) (38.8) (47.1) (49.0) (50.7) ($352.8) Summary The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2014‐2023 totals $14,271.4 million, a decrease of $352.8 million from the October 2012 Official Forecast. The Risk Analysis Process panel members were more pessimistic over the entire forecast period compared to their inputs during the RAP session last year. In addition, there was concern that population and employment growth will not return to levels before the Great Recession and the younger generation was driving less or not at all. On a positive side, the panel members did estimate lower gas and diesel prices throughout most of the forecast period. Supplementary Information The remaining pages of this report present supplementary information on the detailed results of the Risk Analysis Process, the Department’s model and the values of the independent variables forecast by the expert panel. While the Official Forecast period is FY 2014‐2023 panel inputs were requested for FY 2014‐2018, 2023, 2028 and 2033. Data displayed for other than the requested years, has been extrapolated. November 2013 3 57.3 $1,210.0 Total 157.8 Registration Other 326.5 Vehicle License Tax 177.2 Use Fuel Tax 37.3 $453.9 Gasoline Tax Motor Carrier Fee 2013 Actual Fiscal Year Percentile $1,224.3 56.3 159.4 335.8 37.6 179.3 $455.9 2014 N/A $1,255.4 58.7 161.8 351.6 39.0 182.4 $461.9 2015 50% $1,302.3 61.0 167.1 371.7 40.5 187.7 $474.3 2016 50% $1,351.8 63.4 171.9 397.0 42.0 192.8 $484.7 2017 50% $1,400.0 65.9 177.2 419.7 43.6 199.1 $494.5 2018 50% $1,448.9 67.7 182.4 444.0 45.5 205.8 $503.5 2019 50% $1,499.0 69.6 187.1 470.2 47.1 212.4 $512.6 2020 50% HURF OFFICIAL REVENUE FORECAST With Category Detail and Confidence Interval By Fiscal Year (Current Dollars in Millions) $1,545.7 71.6 191.4 495.6 48.6 218.7 $519.8 2021 50% $1,596.3 73.5 196.2 523.7 50.4 225.7 $526.8 2022 50% $1,647.7 75.5 201.0 551.0 52.0 232.9 $535.3 2023 50% 1,281.3 1,337.9 1,391.7 1,447.2 1,499.5 1,550.2 1,600.2 1,652.1 1,707.8 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2,246.0 2,162.2 2,087.6 2,015.3 1,935.5 1,856.0 1,765.3 1,677.3 1,571.9 $1,441.5 10% $14,706.0 $18,758.5 $1,238.0 2014 Total Mean Fiscal Year 1,874.3 1,810.0 1,750.1 1,695.2 1,635.3 1,572.4 1,509.9 1,444.7 1,373.8 $1,306.9 30% 1,745.9 1,707.6 1,637.5 1,587.2 1,534.1 1,481.1 1,440.5 1,379.2 1,323.7 $1,264.5 40% $17,113.6 $15,972.5 $15,101.3 2,025.4 1,952.7 1,889.7 1,825.8 1,754.4 1,685.6 1,615.3 1,540.4 1,459.5 $1,365.0 20% 1,540.1 1,496.5 1,454.8 1,410.7 1,368.2 1,326.2 1,281.4 1,239.3 1,197.8 $1,183.4 60% 1,457.1 1,414.5 1,372.6 1,334.7 1,298.7 1,259.6 1,216.5 1,181.3 1,145.5 $1,146.6 70% $14,271.4 $13,498.5 $12,827.1 1,647.6 1,596.3 1,545.7 1,499.0 1,448.9 1,400.0 1,351.8 1,302.3 1,255.4 $1,224.3 50% HURF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS (Current Dollars in Millions) 1,241.6 1,208.2 1,180.5 1,149.4 1,119.2 1,092.2 1,060.8 1,038.8 1,021.8 $1,054.4 90% $12,067.3 $11,166.9 1,352.5 1,316.4 1,282.8 1,252.1 1,218.0 1,185.4 1,150.2 1,117.1 1,089.2 $1,103.7 80% HURF $1,224.3 1,255.4 1,302.3 1,351.8 1,400.0 1,448.9 1,499.0 1,545.7 1,596.3 1,647.7 $14,271.4 DPS/ ESP /1 $119.3 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 $218.3 Net HURF $1,105.0 1,244.4 1,291.3 1,340.8 1,389.0 1,437.9 1,488.0 1,534.7 1,585.3 1,636.7 $14,053.1 DPS Parity Comp. Fund /2 ($2.6) (2.7) (2.8) (3.0) (3.2) (3.4) (3.6) (3.8) (4.0) (4.2) ($33.2) ADOT 50.5% /3 $551.3 621.5 645.1 669.9 694.0 718.6 743.7 767.0 792.4 818.1 $7,021.6 Cities/Towns 27.5% $303.9 342.2 355.1 368.7 382.0 395.4 409.2 422.0 436.0 450.1 $3,864.6 Cities +300K 3% $33.2 37.3 38.7 40.2 41.7 43.1 44.6 46.0 47.6 49.1 $421.6 Counties 19% $210.0 236.4 245.3 254.8 263.9 273.2 282.7 291.6 301.2 311.0 $2,670.1 NOTES: FY 2014 HURF estimate based on July 2013 Forecast. FY 2015‐2023 HURF estimate based on October 2013 Official Forecast. /1. The DPS/ESP includes $1 million for Economic Strength Project (ESP) each year. The DPS transfer in FY 2014 is $120.0 million per Laws 2013, 1st Special Session, Chapter 1, (HB 2001) and $10 million each year thereafter, which is subject to change. The $120.0 million appropriation amount to DPS in FY 2014 has been netted of a $1.7 million reversion from DPS to HURF for unused FY 2012 appropriation. FY 2014 also includes a $651,500 appropriation to MVD for the registration compliance program/3rd Party program and $4,500 to the Automation Projects Fund per Laws 2013, 1st Special Session, Chapter 1 (HB 2001). /2. Per Laws 2005, Chapter 306 (SB 1119), 1.51 percent of the state highway fund share of HURF VLT is transferred to the DPS Parity Compensation Fund. /3 Net of the DPS Parity Compensation Fund transfer and includes transfers per Laws 2011. 1st Regular Session, Chapter 28 (SB 1616) which transfers the state highway fund share of HURF VLT difference between the two‐year registration and the five‐year registration to the state general fund. Laws 2010, 7th Special Session, Chapter 12, (HB 2012) an amount equal to 90 percent of the fees collected under 28‐4802 (A) and 60 percent of the fees collected under 28‐4802 (B) shall be transferred from the state highway fund share of HURF VLT to the state general fund. Fiscal Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total HURF OFFICIAL REVENUE FORECAST DISTRIBUTION (Current Dollars in Millions) PANELIST DATA VALUES AZ Nominal Income Growth Arizona Population Growth Arizona Non‐Farm Employ. Growth AZ Nominal Gas Price Growth West Coast Nominal Diesel Price Growth 6.39% 3.52% 5.05% 1.98% 0.78% 1.41% 2.94% 1.28% 2.25% 4.51% ‐9.21% ‐1.53% 3.30% ‐9.90% ‐2.28% 6.93% 3.85% 5.38% 2.39% 1.10% 1.77% 3.46% 1.47% 2.66% 5.99% ‐8.82% ‐0.06% 5.03% ‐8.75% ‐0.62% 7.35% 3.96% 5.64% 2.63% 1.23% 1.96% 4.08% 1.36% 2.96% 9.63% ‐8.58% 1.22% 9.22% ‐7.94% 1.07% 7.56% 4.01% 5.83% 2.77% 1.26% 2.05% 4.25% 1.50% 3.03% 11.78% ‐7.62% 2.26% 11.31% ‐6.71% 2.38% 7.54% 3.73% 5.67% 2.79% 1.25% 2.11% 4.06% 1.32% 2.91% 12.47% ‐7.73% 2.61% 12.22% ‐6.84% 2.54% 7.00% 2.57% 4.89% 2.95% 0.91% 1.88% 3.93% 0.57% 2.48% 15.23% ‐11.77% 1.73% 16.24% ‐10.96% 2.28% 6.83% 2.19% 4.52% 2.89% 0.73% 1.72% 3.88% 0.08% 2.29% 17.18% ‐13.91% 1.68% 18.28% ‐13.63% 1.95% 6.95% 1.95% 4.50% 2.86% 0.64% 1.64% 3.96% ‐0.17% 2.16% 18.71% ‐15.84% 1.69% 20.20% ‐15.11% 2.09% FY 2014 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2015 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2016 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2017 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2018 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2023 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2028 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2033 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. November 2013 7 Arizona Nominal Personal Income Growth 10.0% 8.0% Growth Rate 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% ‐2.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2022 2023 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Arizona Population Growth 6.0% 5.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% ‐1.0% ‐2.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Fiscal Year Median November 2013 Lower 10% Upper 10% 8 Arizona Non‐Farm Employment Growth 8.0% 6.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% ‐2.0% ‐4.0% ‐6.0% ‐8.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2022 2023 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Arizona Nominal Gas Price Growth 30.0% 20.0% Growth Rate 10.0% 0.0% ‐10.0% ‐20.0% ‐30.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Fiscal Year Median November 2013 Lower 10% Upper 10% 9 West Coast No. 2 Nominal Diesel Price Growth 30.0% 20.0% Growth Rate 10.0% 0.0% ‐10.0% ‐20.0% ‐30.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Fiscal Year Median November 2013 Lower 10% Upper 10% 10 Arizona Nominal Personal Income Growth 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 6.85% 7.60% 8.10% 8.54% 8.30% Lower 10% 3.50% 3.95% 4.63% 4.87% 3.85% Median 5.15% 6.22% 6.86% 7.05% 6.45% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 5.50% 6.00% 6.00% 6.20% 6.50% Lower 10% 4.00% 4.50% 4.50% 4.60% 4.70% Median 4.80% 5.00% 5.00% 5.30% 5.50% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 7.00% 7.70% 8.10% 8.00% 7.90% Lower 10% 4.00% 4.50% 4.50% 5.00% 4.50% Median 5.80% 6.10% 6.30% 6.50% 6.20% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 6.80% 7.00% 7.80% 8.40% 8.20% Lower 10% 3.80% 4.40% 4.40% 4.30% 4.00% Median 5.40% 6.00% 6.50% 6.70% 6.50% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 6.50% 7.07% 7.45% 8.09% 8.33% Lower 10% 3.57% 4.13% 4.43% 4.72% 4.77% Median 5.03% 5.60% 5.94% 6.40% 6.55% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 7.23% 7.83% 8.03% 8.21% 8.01% Lower 10% 3.97% 4.57% 4.00% 4.00% 3.50% Median 5.60% 5.70% 5.50% 5.50% 5.00% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 7.00% 7.60% 7.90% 8.20% 8.40% Lower 10% 2.00% 2.30% 3.00% 3.10% 3.00% Median 5.00% 5.60% 6.00% 6.20% 6.20% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 5.00% 5.20% 5.50% 5.60% 5.60% Lower 10% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% Median 4.50% 4.60% 4.60% 4.60% 4.50% Panelist 9 Upper 10% 6.00% 6.80% 8.00% 8.20% 8.40% Lower 10% 4.00% 4.60% 4.80% 4.80% 4.60% Median 5.00% 5.50% 6.00% 6.50% 6.50% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 6.50% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% Lower 10% 3.97% 4.50% 4.70% 4.80% 4.50% Median 5.70% 6.10% 6.20% 6.30% 6.30% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 7.19% 6.79% 6.60% 6.28% 5.91% Lower 10% 0.79% 0.39% 0.20% ‐0.12% ‐0.49% Median 3.99% 3.59% 3.40% 3.08% 2.71% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 6.50% 7.00% 8.03% 8.00% 8.01% Lower 10% 3.97% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% Median 5.00% 5.00% 6.00% 6.50% 6.50% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 5.00% 5.50% 6.00% 6.50% 6.50% Lower 10% 4.20% 4.20% 4.30% 4.00% 3.50% Median 4.70% 4.90% 5.00% 5.10% 4.80% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. November 2013 2023 2028 2033 8.45% 6.20% 6.50% 4.00% 3.88% 4.00% 6.73% 5.00% 5.50% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 4.80% 4.80% 4.80% 7.20% 7.00% 7.00% 2.80% 2.40% 2.20% 5.40% 5.00% 4.80% 7.45% 8.12% 8.58% 3.01% 2.59% 2.13% 5.23% 5.36% 5.36% 7.12% 7.28% 7.53% 2.88% 2.32% 1.87% 4.50% 4.00% 4.00% 8.00% 8.20% 8.50% 1.00% 0.70% 0.00% 4.90% 4.50% 4.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.50% 4.30% 4.30% 7.10% 7.30% 7.50% 2.90% 2.30% 1.90% 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 5.00% 4.50% 4.50% 5.20% 5.20% 5.20% ‐1.20% ‐1.20% ‐1.20% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 7.00% 6.50% 6.50% 3.00% 2.00% 1.50% 5.00% 4.80% 4.70% 6.00% 5.50% 5.50% 2.00% 1.00% 1.00% 4.50% 4.00% 4.00% 11 Arizona Population Growth 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2023 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 2.25% 2.75% 2.95% 3.10% 3.30% 3.80% Lower 10% 0.80% 0.95% 1.25% 1.20% 1.25% 1.40% Median 1.50% 1.85% 2.10% 2.35% 2.45% 2.05% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 1.70% 2.10% 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% Lower 10% 1.00% 1.40% 1.60% 1.70% 1.70% 1.60% Median 1.40% 1.80% 2.00% 2.00% 2.10% 2.00% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 2.30% 2.60% 2.80% 3.00% 3.00% 2.90% Lower 10% 0.50% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 0.50% Median 1.40% 1.80% 1.90% 2.00% 2.00% 1.70% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 1.60% 2.20% 2.40% 2.60% 2.70% 2.70% Lower 10% 0.80% 1.10% 1.30% 1.40% 1.40% 0.60% Median 1.30% 1.80% 2.10% 2.20% 2.20% 2.00% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 1.93% 2.33% 2.56% 2.70% 2.65% 2.85% Lower 10% 0.75% 1.21% 1.42% 1.55% 1.52% 0.65% Median 1.34% 1.77% 1.99% 2.13% 2.08% 1.75% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 1.87% 2.37% 2.57% 2.67% 2.67% 2.93% Lower 10% 0.73% 1.23% 1.30% 0.80% 0.80% 0.80% Median 1.30% 1.80% 2.00% 2.10% 2.10% 1.80% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 2.00% 2.60% 2.90% 3.00% 3.10% 3.20% Lower 10% 0.80% 0.90% 1.10% 1.10% 1.00% 0.60% Median 1.40% 1.80% 2.00% 2.00% 2.10% 1.70% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 2.00% 2.20% 2.20% 2.30% 2.40% 2.50% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.50% 1.50% Lower 10% Median 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.00% Panelist 9 Upper 10% 2.10% 2.40% 2.70% 3.00% 3.00% 3.50% Lower 10% 0.70% 1.20% 1.40% 1.50% 1.50% 0.70% Median 1.50% 1.80% 2.10% 2.40% 2.50% 2.00% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 1.80% 2.20% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% Lower 10% 0.73% 1.30% 1.40% 1.50% 1.50% 1.00% Median 1.30% 1.70% 1.90% 1.90% 1.90% 1.70% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 2.63% 3.08% 3.25% 3.63% 3.66% 3.67% Lower 10% 0.83% 1.18% 1.25% 1.23% 1.26% 1.27% Median 1.73% 2.08% 2.15% 2.13% 2.16% 2.17% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Lower 10% 0.73% 1.00% 1.00% 1.53% 1.00% 0.67% Median 1.50% 2.00% 2.30% 2.50% 2.50% 1.80% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 1.50% 1.70% 2.00% 2.20% 2.00% 2.50% Lower 10% 0.70% 0.80% 1.00% 0.90% 0.80% 0.50% Median 1.20% 1.30% 1.50% 1.50% 1.40% 1.80% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. November 2013 2028 2033 3.90% 3.85% 1.60% 1.50% 2.20% 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% 1.50% 1.50% 1.90% 1.80% 2.70% 2.50% 0.50% 0.50% 1.60% 1.50% 2.60% 2.50% 0.40% 0.40% 1.60% 1.50% 2.92% 3.00% 0.29% 0.20% 1.60% 1.60% 2.91% 2.81% 0.80% 0.80% 1.60% 1.50% 3.50% 3.60% 0.50% 0.20% 1.50% 1.30% 2.20% 2.20% 1.20% 1.20% 1.80% 1.80% 3.50% 3.50% 0.30% 0.20% 1.80% 1.60% 2.20% 2.20% 0.50% 0.19% 1.50% 1.50% 3.64% 3.50% 1.24% 1.10% 2.14% 2.00% 2.70% 2.70% 0.29% 0.19% 1.60% 1.50% 2.50% 2.50% 0.40% 0.30% 1.50% 1.40% 12 Arizona Non‐Farm Employment Growth 2014 Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2015 2016 2017 2018 2023 2028 2033 2.85% 3.40% 0.80% 1.10% 2.20% 2.90% 3.85% 4.55% 4.88% 4.65% 4.88% 5.10% 1.30% 1.50% 1.70% 0.90% 0.80% 1.10% 3.00% 3.20% 3.50% 3.20% 3.50% 3.60% 2.50% 2.60% 1.50% 1.80% 2.00% 2.30% 2.80% 3.00% 3.00% 2.80% 2.80% 2.80% 1.90% 2.00% 2.00% 1.80% 1.80% 1.80% 2.60% 2.70% 2.50% 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% 3.80% 4.10% 1.00% 1.00% 2.40% 2.80% 3.80% 4.00% 4.00% 4.30% 4.30% 4.30% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 2.90% 3.00% 3.00% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 3.00% 3.80% 1.40% 1.80% 2.30% 3.00% 4.50% 4.80% 5.00% 4.10% 3.80% 3.80% 2.00% 2.00% 1.60% 1.20% 0.50% 0.50% 3.50% 3.80% 3.60% 2.70% 2.40% 2.10% 4.15% 4.89% 1.48% 2.27% 2.82% 3.58% 5.28% 4.66% 4.15% 3.69% 4.14% 4.81% 2.13% 2.05% 1.62% 0.32% ‐0.13% ‐0.80% 3.70% 3.36% 2.89% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.95% 3.55% 1.05% 1.00% 2.00% 2.60% 4.70% 5.00% 4.60% 4.60% 4.75% 4.80% ‐2.00% ‐0.50% 0.00% ‐2.00% ‐2.00% ‐1.00% 2.70% 2.80% 3.20% 2.50% 2.30% 2.00% 2.70% 3.90% 1.00% 1.10% 2.20% 2.50% 4.70% 4.80% 4.80% 4.90% 5.20% 5.30% 1.00% 1.10% 1.00% 0.80% ‐0.50% ‐2.00% 2.80% 3.20% 3.00% 3.00% 2.80% 2.50% 2.50% 2.70% 1.80% 1.80% 2.00% 2.20% 2.90% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 1.80% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 1.50% 2.40% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.30% 2.00% 2.90% 3.50% 1.40% 1.70% 2.50% 2.50% 4.70% 5.00% 4.60% 5.50% 5.00% 5.00% 1.90% 2.20% 1.80% 0.40% ‐0.20% ‐0.80% 2.70% 2.80% 2.80% 2.80% 2.60% 2.50% 2.80% 3.55% 1.80% 2.00% 2.20% 2.60% 4.80% 5.00% 5.00% 4.70% 4.50% 4.50% 2.20% 2.20% 2.00% 0.00% ‐0.50% ‐0.50% 3.20% 3.20% 3.20% 2.50% 2.30% 2.00% 2.38% 2.19% 0.38% 0.19% 2.28% 2.09% 2.52% 1.89% 1.76% 1.31% 1.03% 1.03% 0.52% ‐0.11% ‐0.24% ‐0.69% ‐1.27% ‐1.27% 2.42% 1.79% 1.66% 1.21% 0.63% 0.63% 2.70% 3.55% 1.50% 1.70% 2.50% 3.00% 4.50% 5.00% 4.00% 4.00% 3.50% 3.50% 2.00% 2.00% 1.70% 1.70% 0.00% 0.00% 3.50% 3.50% 3.00% 2.70% 2.50% 2.30% 3.00% 3.30% 1.50% 1.70% 2.20% 2.50% 4.00% 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 1.90% 2.00% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% ‐1.00% 3.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 2.00% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. November 2013 13 Arizona Nominal Gas Price Growth 2014 Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2015 2016 2017 2018 2023 2028 2033 ‐0.24% 2.06% 8.72% 11.32% ‐12.56% ‐10.26% ‐9.12% ‐6.52% ‐6.40% ‐4.10% ‐0.20% 2.40% 11.52% 15.38% 17.10% 19.53% ‐6.32% ‐11.38% ‐14.10% ‐16.13% 2.60% 2.00% 1.50% 1.70% ‐0.24% 2.06% 8.72% 11.32% ‐12.56% ‐10.26% ‐9.12% ‐6.52% ‐6.40% ‐4.10% ‐0.20% 2.40% 11.52% 15.38% 17.10% 19.53% ‐6.32% ‐11.38% ‐14.10% ‐16.13% 2.60% 2.00% 1.50% 1.70% 8.00% 9.00% 9.00% 8.00% ‐10.00% ‐10.00% ‐9.00% ‐6.00% ‐1.00% ‐0.50% 0.00% 1.00% 11.70% 15.50% 17.00% 19.40% ‐6.50% ‐11.50% ‐14.00% ‐16.00% 2.60% 2.00% 1.50% 1.70% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 12.00% 12.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% ‐10.00% ‐12.00% ‐10.00% ‐10.00% ‐10.00% ‐20.00% ‐20.00% ‐20.00% ‐5.00% ‐1.00% 0.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.00% ‐0.13% 1.03% 5.46% 11.63% ‐6.71% ‐5.10% ‐5.46% ‐6.70% ‐3.42% ‐2.04% 2.10% 2.47% 10.61% 14.93% 22.15% 22.32% ‐5.82% ‐11.05% ‐18.27% ‐18.43% 2.39% 1.94% 1.94% 1.94% 0.24% 2.06% 8.72% 11.32% ‐12.56% ‐10.26% ‐9.12% ‐6.52% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00% 11.52% 15.38% 15.00% 15.00% ‐6.32% ‐11.38% ‐14.10% ‐16.13% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.70% 2.50% 4.00% 10.00% 11.50% ‐6.50% ‐8.00% ‐8.50% ‐8.00% 1.00% 1.50% 1.90% 2.50% 11.70% 14.00% 20.00% 25.00% ‐9.00% ‐12.00% ‐15.00% ‐20.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 5.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% ‐5.00% ‐5.00% ‐5.00% ‐5.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% ‐5.00% ‐5.00% ‐10.00% ‐20.00% 1.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.50% ‐0.20% 2.10% 8.70% 11.30% ‐12.60% ‐10.30% ‐9.10% ‐6.50% ‐6.40% ‐4.10% ‐0.20% 2.40% 11.50% 15.40% 17.10% 19.50% ‐6.30% ‐11.40% ‐14.10% ‐16.10% 2.60% 2.00% 1.50% 1.70% 5.00% 5.00% 8.00% 10.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 20.00% ‐10.00% ‐10.00% ‐12.00% ‐12.00% ‐12.00% ‐15.00% ‐15.00% ‐15.00% 0.00% 2.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.50% 22.74% 21.56% 19.91% 19.71% 20.09% 12.01% 12.84% 13.00% ‐12.26% ‐13.42% ‐15.09% ‐15.29% ‐14.91% ‐22.99% ‐22.16% ‐22.00% 7.74% 6.58% 4.91% 4.71% 5.09% ‐2.99% ‐2.16% ‐2.00% 1.00% 3.00% 7.00% 10.00% ‐5.00% ‐5.00% ‐5.00% ‐5.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 25.00% 25.00% ‐5.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 13.00% 15.00% ‐4.00% ‐5.00% ‐5.00% ‐5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 5.00% 4.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% ‐7.00% ‐10.00% ‐10.00% ‐10.00% 5.00% 4.00% 5.00% 4.00% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. November 2013 14 West Coast No. 2 Nominal Diesel Price Growth 2014 Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2015 2016 2017 2018 2023 2028 2033 ‐0.25% 2.05% ‐12.55% ‐10.25% ‐6.40% ‐4.10% 8.86% 11.46% 11.66% 15.60% 17.36% 19.83% ‐9.26% ‐6.66% ‐6.46% ‐11.60% ‐14.36% ‐16.43% ‐0.20% 2.40% 2.60% 2.00% 1.50% 1.70% ‐0.25% 2.05% ‐12.55% ‐10.25% ‐6.40% ‐4.10% 8.86% 11.46% 11.66% 15.60% 17.36% 19.83% ‐9.26% ‐6.66% ‐6.46% ‐11.60% ‐14.36% ‐16.43% ‐0.20% 2.40% 2.60% 2.00% 1.50% 1.70% 8.00% 9.00% ‐10.00% ‐10.00% ‐1.00% ‐0.50% 9.00% ‐9.00% 0.00% 8.00% 11.70% 15.50% 17.00% 19.40% ‐6.00% ‐6.50% ‐11.50% ‐14.50% ‐16.50% 1.00% 2.60% 2.00% 1.50% 1.70% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 12.00% 12.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% ‐10.00% ‐12.00% ‐10.00% ‐10.00% ‐10.00% ‐20.00% ‐20.00% ‐20.00% ‐5.00% ‐1.00% 0.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.50% 3.50% 4.00% ‐0.25% 2.04% ‐12.62% ‐10.19% ‐6.43% ‐4.07% 8.08% 11.68% 11.62% 15.98% 21.99% 23.33% ‐8.44% ‐6.79% ‐6.44% ‐11.88% ‐18.19% ‐19.33% ‐0.18% 2.45% 2.59% 2.05% 1.90% 2.00% 0.24% 2.06% ‐12.56% ‐10.26% 0.00% 0.00% 8.72% 11.32% 11.52% 15.38% 15.00% 15.00% ‐9.12% ‐6.52% ‐6.32% ‐11.38% ‐14.10% ‐16.13% 0.00% 1.00% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.70% 5.00% 6.00% ‐11.00% ‐10.00% 1.50% 2.00% 9.00% 12.00% 12.50% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% ‐8.00% ‐7.50% ‐8.50% ‐11.00% ‐15.00% ‐20.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% Not Provided ‐0.20% 2.10% ‐12.60% ‐10.30% ‐6.40% ‐4.10% 8.90% 11.50% 11.70% 15.60% 17.40% 19.80% ‐9.30% ‐6.70% ‐6.50% ‐11.60% ‐14.40% ‐16.40% ‐0.20% 2.40% 2.60% 2.00% 1.50% 1.70% 5.00% 5.00% 8.00% 10.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 20.00% ‐10.00% ‐10.00% ‐12.00% ‐12.00% ‐12.00% ‐15.00% ‐15.00% ‐15.00% 0.00% 2.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.50% Not Provided 1.00% ‐5.00% 0.00% 3.00% ‐5.00% 0.00% 7.00% 10.00% 10.00% 20.00% 25.00% 25.00% ‐5.00% ‐5.00% ‐5.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.00% 12.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.00% 2.00% 2.00% 0.00% ‐1.00% ‐5.00% ‐10.00% ‐10.00% 5.00% 7.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 6.00% 5.00% 5.00% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. November 2013 15 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA NOMINAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 15.4% 14.4% 10.0% 10.0% 12.7% 15.6% 18.3% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 16.9% 15.0% 9.8% 7.8% 11.9% 12.0% 9.9% 8.6% 7.8% 7.3% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 6.0% 5.3% 6.0% 6.9% 8.8% 9.4% 8.6% 8.5% 9.3% 8.2% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 8.3% 7.5% 4.5% 4.4% 7.2% 10.0% 10.3% 7.7% 4.6% ‐1.3% 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ‐2.2% 3.4% 4.3% 4.4% BEA for FY 1973‐2012, Western Blue Chip, June 2013 for FY 2013* and FY 2014, and ADOT staff for FY 2015‐33. Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA ‐ GRAPHED 22.0% 22% 22.0% 20.0% 20% 20.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18% 16.0% 16% 16.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14% 12.0% 12.0% 12% 10.0% 10.0% 10% 8.0% 8.0% 8% 6.0% 6.0% 6% 4.0% 4.0% 4% 2.0% 2.0% 2% 0.0% 0.0% 0% -2.0% -2.0% -2% -4.0% -4.0% -4% -6.0% -6.0% -6% 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 87 88 89 90 91 9292 9393 9494 9696 97 98 04 05 0605 0706 0807 0908 1009 11 10 12 12 13 73 7374 7475 7576 7677 7778 78 7979 8080 8181 8282 8383 8484 8585 8686 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 93 94 9595 9797 9899 98 9900 99 0001 00 0102 01 0203 02 03 03 04 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 11 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA ‐ ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2013 Historical Min. Max. ‐2.2% 4.4% ‐2.2% 10.3% ‐2.2% 18.3% Mean 1.7% 4.8% 8.6% Std. Dev. 3.2% 4.2% 4.3% 80% Range Lower Upper ‐1.9% 4.4% ‐1.4% 10.0% 4.4% 15.0% 16 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 3.3% 5.6% 5.9% 5.8% 4.6% 2.8% 2.7% 3.4% 3.7% 4.8% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 3.9% 2.6% 2.8% 2.7% 3.3% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 2.9% 2.5% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1.7% 2.8% 3.4% 3.8% 4.4% 4.4% 3.5% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 3.0% 2.2% 2.3% 2.6% 3.1% 3.5% 3.2% 2.6% 1.5% 0.3% 2010 2011 2012 2013 * 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0.2% 0.6% 0.9% 1.1% BEA FY 1970‐2000. FY 2001‐2033 from ADOA Office of Employment and Population Statistics. * FY 2013 Estimated. HISTORICAL DATA ‐ GRAPHED 7.0% 7.0% 7% Percent Change 6.0% 6.0% 6% 5.0% 5.0% 5% 4.0% 4% 4.0% 3.0% 3% 3.0% 2.0% 2% 2.0% 1.0% 1% 1.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0% 70 69 71 72 71 73 74 73 75 76 75 77 78 77 79 80 79 81 82 81 83 84 83 85 86 85 87 88 87 89 90 89 91 92 91 93 Fiscal Year 94 93 95 96 95 97 98 97 99 00 99 01 02 01 03 04 03 05 06 05 07 08 07 09 10 09 11 HISTORICAL DATA ‐ ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2013 Historical Min. Max. 0.2% 1.1% 0.2% 3.5% 0.2% 5.9% Mean 0.6% 1.7% 3.1% Std. Dev. 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 80% Range Lower Upper 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 3.3% 1.2% 4.6% 17 11 12 13 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA TOTAL NON‐FARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 4.0% 9.6% 10.9% 8.6% ‐0.5% 1.4% 4.8% 9.0% 10.9% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 6.6% 2.3% 1.1% 0.0% 9.0% 8.9% 6.4% 3.7% 3.3% 2.2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2.3% 1.1% 1.1% 3.1% 5.7% 6.4% 5.7% 5.2% 4.7% 4.4% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 4.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.7% 2.6% 4.6% 5.2% 3.2% ‐0.3% ‐4.7% 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ‐4.7% ‐0.4% 1.6% 2.0% Bureau of Labor Statistics for FY 1971‐2012, ADOA, Office of Employment & Population Statistics, Employment Forecast Report, on May 9, 2013 for estimates in 2013* and 2014 and ADOT staff estimates for FY 2015‐2033. HISTORICAL DATA ‐ GRAPHED 14.0% 14% 12.0% 12% Percent Change 10.0% 10% 8.0% 8% 6.0% 6% 4.0% 4% 2.0% 2% 0.0% 0% -2.0% -2% -4.0% -4% -6.0% -6% -8.0% -8% 71 72 73 73 74 74 74 75 75 75 76 76 7677 77 7778 78 7879 79 7980 80 8081 81 8182 82 82 83 83 83 84 84 84 85 85 85 86 86 86 87 87 87 88 88 88 89 89 89 90 9090 919191 929293 9293 94 93 94 95 94 95 96 95 96 97 96 97 98 97 98 99 98 99 00 99 00 01 00 01 0201 02 0302 03 0403 04 0504 05 0605 06 0706 07 08 07 08 09 08 09 10 09 10 11 10 11 12 12 11 13 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA ‐ ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2013 Historical Min. Max. ‐4.7% 2.0% ‐4.7% 5.2% ‐4.7% 10.9% Mean ‐1.2% 0.9% 3.7% Std. Dev. 3.3% 3.5% 3.6% 80% Range Lower Upper ‐4.7% 1.8% ‐4.7% 4.6% ‐0.3% 9.0% 18 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA NOMINAL GAS PRICE GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 ‐0.3% ‐9.2% ‐25.2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 13.8% ‐16.0% 14.2% ‐3.3% ‐0.5% 7.2% 9.0% ‐10.3% ‐16.8% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 37.2% 20.2% ‐21.9% 25.4% 21.6% 17.4% 32.1% 0.5% 20.2% ‐19.3% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 4.7% 20.1% 16.1% ‐0.5% U.S. Department of Energy (EIA Administration) for FY 1985‐2011, AAA Arizona for FY 2012 and 2013 and Global Insight, 1st Quarter 2013, Trend Forecast report for FY 2014‐33 HISTORICAL DATA ‐ GRAPHED 50.0% 50% 40.0% 40% Percent Change 30.0% 30% 20.0% 20% 10.0% 10% 0.0% 0% -10.0% -10% -20.0% -20% -30.0% -30% -40.0% -40% -50.0% -50% 91 92 92 92 93 93 93 94 94 94 95 95 95 96 96 96 97 9797989898999999 000000 0101 02 01 0203 020304 0304050405060506 07 06 07 08 07 08 09 08 09 10 09 10 11 Fiscal Year 10 11 12 HISTORICAL DATA ‐ ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2013 Historical Min. Max. ‐19.3% 20.1% ‐19.3% 32.1% ‐21.9% 37.2% Mean 4.2% 11.3% 7.4% Std. Dev. 15.6% 14.9% 16.6% 80% Range Lower Upper ‐11.7% 18.5% ‐2.3% 22.6% ‐16.6% 24.6% 19 12 13 11 HISTORICAL DATA WEST COAST NO. 2 NOMINAL DIESEL PRICE GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 2.7% 6.4% 43.3% 31.4% 5.8% 10.0% 9.1% 22.4% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 48.1% 30.2% 4.3% ‐8.0% ‐6.8% 0.1% ‐4.0% 2.1% 2.3% 1.2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 14.2% 4.6% ‐3.2% 3.1% 2.7% ‐3.4% 4.9% 5.8% ‐11.8% ‐5.9% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 25.0% 16.4% ‐16.4% 12.4% 13.6% 27.8% 25.5% 2.7% 25.8% ‐17.2% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ‐3.4% 23.5% 14.2% 0.0% U.S. Department of Energy (EIA Administration) for FY 1972‐2013 and Global Insight, 1st Quarter 2013, Trend Forecast report for FY 2014‐33 HISTORICAL DATA ‐ GRAPHED 50.0% 50% 40.0% 40% Percent Change 30.0% 30% 20.0% 20% 10.0% 10% 0.0% 0% -10.0% -10% -20.0% -20% -30.0% -30% -40.0% -40% -50.0% -50% 72 73 74 7475 75 7576 76 7677 77 7778 78 7879 79 7980 80 8081 81 81 82 82 82 83 83 83 84 84 84 85 85 85 86 86 86 87 87 87 88 88 88 89 89 89 90 90 90 91 91 91 92 92 93 92 93 94 93 94 95 94 95 96 95 96 97 96 97 98 97 98 99 98 99 00 99 00 01 00 01 02 01 02 03 02 03 0403 04 0504 05 0605 06 0706 07 0807 08 0908 09 1009 10 11 10 11 12 13 11 12 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA ‐ ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2013 Historical Min. Max. ‐17.2% 23.5% ‐17.2% 27.8% ‐17.2% 48.1% Mean 3.4% 11.3% 8.6% Std. Dev. 15.8% 15.2% 14.9% 80% Range Lower Upper ‐11.7% 19.8% ‐4.8% 26.0% ‐6.7% 27.6% 20