ARIZONA HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND Forecasting Process & Results FY 2013-2022 Financial Management Services October 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 1 Background 1 Risk Analysis Panel 2 Model Results 2 Summary 3 Supplementary Information 1. HURF Official Revenue Forecast 2. HURF Revenue Risk Analysis Results by Probability 3. HURF Official Revenue Forecast Distribution 4. Panel Data Values 5. Panel Members Inputs by Independent Variable 6. Independent Variable Historical Values 4 5 6 7-10 11-15 16-20 ARIZONA HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES Introduction This document presents the forecast of expected values for the Arizona Highway User Revenue Fund for the period FY 2013-2022, as prepared by the Arizona Department of Transportation. Background The State of Arizona taxes motor fuels and collects a variety of fees relating to the registration and operation of motor vehicles in the state. These collections include gasoline and use fuel taxes, motor carrier fees, vehicle license taxes, motor vehicle registration fees, and other miscellaneous fees. These revenues are deposited in the Arizona Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) and are then distributed to the cities, towns and counties of the State and to the State Highway Fund, which is administered by the Department. These taxes and fees represent a source of revenues available to the state for highway related expenses. Since 1986, the Department has estimated Highway Revenues using a comprehensive regressionbased econometric model. In 1989, the model was updated by Dr. Alberta Charney of the University of Arizona. The model relied on the estimates of certain “independent variables” to predict future tax revenues. Any variability between estimated and actual values could lead to variances in the tax forecast. In order to deal with this variability, the Department introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies upon probability analysis and the independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. This results in a series of forecasts with specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate. In 1997, Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB), working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State University, developed a new forecasting model to incorporate certain economic data generated over the past ten years and evaluate the inclusion of independent variables absent from the 1989 model, to enhance the model’s forecasting accuracy. The new model also took into consideration 1997 legislation which eliminated the weight distance tax on motor carriers, increased weight and use fees for use class vehicles, and changed the point of taxation on fuel. In September 2000 and 2003, HLB reviewed the model and updated the equations. The independent variables contained in the model in 2003 included Arizona Real Income Growth Per Capita, Population Growth, Wage & Salary Employment Growth and Fleet Fuel Efficiency. In 2005, HDR\HLB developed a new forecasting model to incorporate additional economic data that would enhance the model’s forecasting accuracy. The Arizona Real Gross Domestic Product Growth independent variable was added to the model to incorporate the impact of the Arizona economy on the commercial registration activities. In September 2008, HDR\HLB reviewed the forecasting model and added the Arizona Real Gas Price Growth independent variable to improve the model’s forecasting accuracy for changes in Arizona gasoline consumption. In September 2009, HDR\HLB reviewed the forecasting model and added October 2012 1 the West Coast No. 2 Real Diesel Price Growth independent variable to improve the model’s forecasting accuracy for changes in Arizona use fuel (diesel) consumption. In September 2011, the income, gross domestic product, gas price and diesel price variables were converted to nominal dollars at the request of the panel members from the August 2010 RAP panel meeting. The September 2011 RAP panel recommended the Arizona nominal Gross Domestic Product independent variable be eliminated from the model. The current model includes: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Arizona nominal personal income Arizona population Arizona non-farm employment Arizona fleet fuel efficiency (Not part of RAP Process) Arizona nominal gas price West Coast No. 2 nominal diesel price Risk Analysis Panel The Risk Analysis Process relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economic and financial participants to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In August 2012, a panel of fourteen economic and finance experts representing public, private, and academic sectors submitted their individual estimates of the model’s independent variables and comments on the future economic outlook. The information gathered from the panelists was input into the model to produce a series of forecasts with associated probabilities of occurrence. The panelists’ inputs are reflected in the attached tables at the back of this report. Model Results This year’s panel inputs produced a mean forecast of $14,654.6 million for the period FY 2013-2022 with a compound growth rate of 3.8 percent. The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2013-2022 amounts to $14,144.6 million with a compound growth rate of 3.4 percent. The Official Forecast incorporates the 50 percent confidence interval for all revenue categories except the vehicle license tax revenue category, which applies the 55 percent confidence interval. The FY 2013 forecast of $1,218.7 million was developed in July 2012 by ADOT staff using time-series techniques, historical and projected growth rates, and recent legislative changes. FY 2013 Official Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total Ave. CGR October 2012 Mean Forecast $1,232.6 1,276.7 1,325.5 1,377.2 1,431.8 1,487.9 1,544.0 1,602.2 1,659.5 1,717.2 $14,654.6 3.8% Official Forecast $1,218.7 1,244.9 1,283.8 1,330.6 1,377.4 1,429.3 1,484.0 1,537.8 1,592.8 1,645.3 $14,144.6 3.4% Confidence Level N/A 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 2 For comparison purposes, the October 2011 Official Forecast and the October 2012 Official Forecast are shown below: FY 2013-2022 Comparative Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total Ave. CGR Oct. 11 Official Forecast $1,241.9 1,274.9 1,314.8 1,360.4 1,408.7 1,457.2 1,502.9 1,556.0 1,605.2 1,655.3 $14,377.3 3.2% Oct. 12 Official Forecast $1,218.7 1,244.9 1,283.8 1,330.6 1,377.4 1,429.3 1,484.0 1,537.8 1,592.8 1,645.3 $14,144.6 3.4% Difference ($23.2) (30.0) (31.0) (29.8) (31.3) (27.9) (18.9) (18.2) (12.4) (10.0) ($232.7) Summary The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2013-2022 totals $14,144.6 million, a decrease of $232.7 million from the October 2011 Official Forecast. The Risk Analysis Process panel members became more optimistic over the entire forecast period compared to their inputs during the RAP session last year. However, the panel voiced concern over the future growth in population, the U.S. fiscal cliff, higher Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards and consumer spending habits. Supplementary Information The remaining pages of this report present supplementary information on the detailed results of the Risk Analysis Process, the Department’s model and the values of the independent variables forecast by the expert panel. While the Official Forecast period is FY 2013-2022 panel inputs were requested for FY 2013-2017, 2022, 2027 and 2032. Data displayed for other than the requested years, has been extrapolated. October 2012 3 HURF OFFICIAL REVENUE FORECAST With Category Detail and Confidence Interval By Fiscal Year (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year Percentile 2012 Actual 2013 N/A 2014 50% 2015 50% 2016 50% 2017 50% 2018 50% 2019 50% 2020 50% 2021 50% 2022 50% Gasoline Tax $454.8 $455.6 $462.6 $471.9 $481.9 $491.6 $501.9 $513.4 $523.3 $532.6 $542.4 Use Fuel Tax 180.2 181.5 184.8 188.9 193.9 200.2 207.6 215.3 222.7 230.8 238.7 37.3 38.1 40.8 42.1 43.7 45.4 47.5 49.3 51.2 53.2 55.1 Vehicle License Tax /1 321.0 323.5 331.5 349.3 372.3 393.6 417.9 443.6 470.4 497.8 523.1 Registration 158.1 161.3 163.7 168.0 172.7 178.0 183.8 189.4 194.8 200.6 206.0 59.1 58.7 61.5 63.6 66.1 68.6 70.6 73.0 75.4 77.8 80.0 $1,210.6 $1,218.7 $1,244.9 $1,283.8 $1,330.6 $1,377.4 $1,429.3 $1,484.0 $1,537.8 $1,592.8 $1,645.3 Motor Carrier Fee Other Total Note: 1. Vehicle license tax estimates based on 55% confidence level in FY 2014-2022. HURF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year Mean 10% 2013 $1,232.6 $1,435.8 2014 1,276.7 2015 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% $1,359.2 $1,301.2 $1,258.9 $1,218.7 $1,177.9 $1,141.2 $1,098.4 $1,049.3 1,566.3 1,454.3 1,368.9 1,307.0 1,244.9 1,195.3 1,143.1 1,086.9 1,019.7 1,325.5 1,661.7 1,526.1 1,431.3 1,354.4 1,283.8 1,229.7 1,172.1 1,108.4 1,030.7 2016 1,377.2 1,746.8 1,598.4 1,494.2 1,409.4 1,330.6 1,269.9 1,205.6 1,139.9 1,051.3 2017 1,431.8 1,836.1 1,667.6 1,555.6 1,465.3 1,377.4 1,314.0 1,248.0 1,174.6 1,082.2 2018 1,487.9 1,920.5 1,740.8 1,622.6 1,522.3 1,429.3 1,359.7 1,290.6 1,210.4 1,112.3 2019 1,544.0 2,007.3 1,818.5 1,688.4 1,580.8 1,484.0 1,407.2 1,331.3 1,249.0 1,146.5 2020 1,602.2 2,090.3 1,892.1 1,752.3 1,639.5 1,537.8 1,458.8 1,376.5 1,286.4 1,183.9 2021 1,659.5 2,171.9 1,961.4 1,818.1 1,693.4 1,592.8 1,505.5 1,422.9 1,324.3 1,215.5 2022 1,717.2 2,258.3 2,036.5 1,884.6 1,755.5 1,645.3 1,550.8 1,467.3 1,362.0 1,250.4 Total $14,654.6 $18,695.0 20% $17,054.9 $15,917.2 $14,986.5 $14,144.6 $13,468.8 $12,798.7 80% 90% $12,040.2 $11,141.7 HURF OFFICIAL REVENUE FORECAST DISTRIBUTION (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total HURF $1,218.7 1,244.9 1,283.8 1,330.6 1,377.4 1,429.3 1,484.0 1,537.8 1,592.8 1,645.3 $14,144.6 DPS/ ESP /1 $121.6 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 $220.6 Net HURF $1,097.1 1,233.9 1,272.8 1,319.6 1,366.4 1,418.3 1,473.0 1,526.8 1,581.8 1,634.3 $13,924.0 DPS Parity Comp. Fund /2 ($2.5) (2.5) (2.7) (2.8) (3.0) (3.2) (3.4) (3.6) (3.8) (4.0) ($31.4) ADOT 50.5% /3 $548.7 617.7 637.2 660.7 684.1 710.2 737.6 764.5 792.1 818.4 $6,971.2 Cities/Towns 27.5% $301.7 339.3 350.0 362.9 375.8 390.0 405.1 419.9 435.0 449.4 $3,829.1 Cities +300K 3% $32.9 37.0 38.2 39.6 41.0 42.5 44.2 45.8 47.5 49.0 $417.7 Counties 19% $208.5 234.4 241.8 250.7 259.6 269.5 279.9 290.1 300.5 310.5 $2,645.6 NOTES: FY 2013 HURF estimate based on July 2012 Forecast. FY 2014-2022 HURF estimate based on October 2012 Official Forecast. /1. The DPS/ESP includes $1 million for Economic Strength Project (ESP) each year. The DPS transfer in FY 2013 is $120.0 million per Laws 2012, 2nd Regular Session, Chapter 294, (SB 1523) and $10 million each year thereafter, which is subject to change. FY 2013 also includes a $624,800 appropriation to MVD for the registration compliance program per Laws 2012, 2nd Regular Session, Chapter 294 (SB 1523). /2. Per Laws 2005, Chapter 306 (SB 1119), 1.51 percent of the state highway fund share of HURF VLT is transferred to the DPS Parity Compensation Fund. /3 Net of the DPS Parity Compensation Fund transfer and includes transfers per Laws 2011. 1st Regular Session, Chapter 28 (SB 1616) which transfers the state highway fund share of HURF VLT difference between the two-year registration and the five-year registration to the state general fund. Laws 2010, 7th Special Session, Chapter 12, (HB 2012) an amount equal to 90 percent of the fees collected under 28-4802 (A) and 60 percent of the fees collected under 28-4802 (B) shall be transferred from the state highway fund share of HURF VLT to the state general fund. PANELIST DATA VALUES FY 2013 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2014 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2015 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2016 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2017 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2022 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2027 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2032 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median AZ Nominal Income Growth Arizona Population Growth Arizona Non-Farm Employ. Growth AZ Nominal Gas Price Growth West Coast Nominal Diesel Price Growth 6.58% 3.43% 5.22% 2.09% 0.70% 1.30% 3.52% 0.79% 2.34% 14.36% -7.97% 1.88% 14.05% -9.16% 1.16% 7.37% 3.76% 5.79% 2.48% 0.97% 1.69% 3.87% 0.88% 2.70% 14.34% -9.19% 3.05% 13.25% -10.58% 1.93% 7.94% 3.81% 6.02% 2.90% 1.26% 2.13% 4.40% 1.06% 3.05% 14.08% -8.13% 3.86% 13.07% -9.60% 2.78% 8.10% 3.38% 6.05% 2.98% 1.32% 2.14% 4.62% 1.31% 3.18% 14.94% -8.32% 4.22% 14.59% -9.37% 3.36% 8.15% 3.05% 5.89% 3.06% 1.30% 2.16% 4.71% 1.07% 3.10% 14.71% -11.06% 2.21% 15.02% -12.12% 1.38% 7.93% 1.93% 5.02% 3.04% 0.84% 1.91% 4.40% 0.68% 2.70% 20.43% -11.63% 4.48% 18.76% -11.54% 4.83% 7.54% 1.60% 4.64% 2.92% 0.67% 1.74% 4.72% -0.24% 2.50% 22.42% -13.89% 2.32% 19.09% -14.89% 2.13% 7.55% 1.38% 4.52% 2.86% 0.56% 1.63% 4.80% -0.68% 2.36% 24.38% -13.73% 3.82% 21.17% -14.60% 3.78% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. October 2012 7 Arizona Nominal Personal Income Growth 10.0% 8.0% Growth Rate 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2021 2022 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Arizona Population Growth 6.0% 5.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Fiscal Year Median October 2012 Lower 10% Upper 10% 8 Arizona Non-Farm Employment Growth 8.0% 6.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2021 2022 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Arizona Nominal Gas Price Growth 30.0% 20.0% Growth Rate 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Fiscal Year Median October 2012 Lower 10% Upper 10% 9 West Coast No. 2 Nominal Diesel Price Growth 30.0% 20.0% Growth Rate 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Fiscal Year Median October 2012 Lower 10% Upper 10% 10 Arizona Nominal Personal Income Growth 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 5.46% 7.16% 8.09% 7.94% 7.92% Lower 10% 3.54% 4.84% 4.91% 4.86% 4.68% Median 4.50% 6.00% 6.50% 6.40% 6.30% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 6.60% 7.00% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% Lower 10% 4.50% 4.80% 5.00% 4.80% 4.60% Median 5.50% 5.80% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 5.40% 6.10% 7.00% 7.30% 7.60% Lower 10% 1.50% 1.70% 1.60% 1.50% 0.90% Median 4.10% 4.40% 4.60% 4.80% 4.50% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 6.00% 6.80% 8.60% 8.60% 8.40% Lower 10% 4.00% 4.60% 4.70% 4.90% 4.60% Median 5.00% 5.70% 6.30% 6.50% 6.30% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 7.00% 9.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% Lower 10% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 1.00% -1.00% Median 5.40% 6.00% 6.50% 6.60% 6.10% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 6.20% 6.60% 7.00% 8.00% 8.50% Lower 10% 4.40% 4.00% 3.80% 3.30% 2.80% Median 5.50% 6.00% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 8.55% 8.15% 7.56% 7.37% 7.30% Lower 10% 2.55% 2.15% 1.56% 1.37% 1.30% Median 5.50% 5.15% 4.56% 4.37% 4.30% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 6.30% 6.70% 7.40% 7.60% 7.60% Lower 10% 4.10% 4.30% 4.20% 4.40% 4.60% Median 5.20% 5.50% 5.80% 6.00% 6.10% Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 5.50% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 6.90% 7.75% 8.10% 8.54% 8.40% Lower 10% 3.00% 3.48% 4.10% 4.28% 4.31% Median 4.80% 5.70% 6.10% 6.30% 5.50% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 6.60% 7.10% 8.00% 8.20% 7.70% Lower 10% 4.00% 4.80% 4.90% 5.00% 4.60% Median 5.50% 6.00% 6.50% 6.60% 6.10% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 6.50% 8.50% 8.50% 8.00% 8.00% Lower 10% 5.00% 5.50% 5.50% 2.00% 2.00% Median 6.00% 7.50% 7.50% 7.00% 7.00% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 6.00% 6.50% 6.50% 7.00% 7.50% Lower 10% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.50% Median 5.10% 5.50% 5.20% 5.00% 5.00% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 8.00% 8.50% 9.00% 9.20% 9.50% Lower 10% 3.00% 3.20% 3.30% 3.50% 3.80% Median 5.50% 5.80% 6.20% 6.60% 6.80% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. October 2012 2022 2027 2032 8.48% 8.27% 8.13% 1.12% 0.93% 0.87% 4.80% 4.60% 4.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 5.00% 4.70% 4.50% 8.10% 8.20% 8.40% 0.80% 0.50% 0.00% 4.70% 4.50% 4.50% 8.50% 8.60% 8.60% 3.40% 3.00% 2.00% 5.00% 4.80% 4.70% 9.00% 8.00% 8.00% -2.00% -2.00% -2.00% 5.00% 4.80% 4.70% 8.50% 8.00% 8.00% 1.50% 1.00% 1.00% 5.50% 5.00% 4.50% 7.51% 7.13% 6.20% 1.51% 1.13% 0.20% 4.51% 4.13% 3.20% 9.30% 8.80% 8.80% 1.70% 1.20% 1.20% 5.50% 5.00% 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 4.00% 8.70% 6.20% 6.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 5.84% 4.64% 5.70% 6.00% 5.80% 5.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.50% 5.00% 4.80% 4.50% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 4.00% 3.00% 3.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 5.00% 4.00% 3.50% 8.00% 8.00% 9.00% 2.00% 1.50% 1.20% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 11 Arizona Population Growth 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2022 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 1.76% 2.45% 2.59% 2.58% 2.47% 3.01% Lower 10% 0.64% 1.15% 1.41% 1.42% 1.33% 0.59% Median 1.20% 1.80% 2.00% 2.00% 1.90% 1.80% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 2.00% 2.30% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.30% Lower 10% 1.00% 1.10% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.00% Median 1.20% 1.40% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 1.80% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 2.10% 2.30% 2.70% 2.90% 2.90% 3.00% Lower 10% 0.70% 0.80% 1.10% 1.20% 1.20% 0.60% Median 1.30% 1.40% 1.90% 2.00% 1.90% 1.70% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 1.90% 2.20% 2.40% 2.70% 2.80% 2.70% Lower 10% 0.50% 0.90% 1.10% 1.50% 1.50% 0.60% Median 1.20% 1.60% 1.90% 2.00% 2.10% 1.80% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 2.50% 2.70% 2.90% 3.10% 3.30% 2.50% Lower 10% 1.00% 1.10% 1.20% 1.20% 1.20% 1.10% Median 1.40% 1.80% 2.20% 2.20% 2.20% 1.80% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 1.80% 2.40% 2.80% 3.00% 3.00% 2.80% Lower 10% 0.90% 1.20% 1.50% 1.60% 1.40% 0.50% Median 1.40% 1.80% 2.20% 2.30% 2.40% 2.00% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 2.29% 2.92% 3.46% 3.45% 3.43% 3.46% Lower 10% -0.31% 0.32% 0.86% 0.85% 0.83% 0.86% Median 0.99% 1.62% 2.16% 2.15% 2.13% 2.16% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 1.90% 2.30% 2.60% 2.70% 2.80% 3.00% Lower 10% 0.50% 0.90% 1.20% 1.30% 1.40% 0.60% Median 1.20% 1.60% 1.90% 2.00% 2.10% 1.80% Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2.00% 2.00% 1.80% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 2.05% 2.57% 3.00% 3.10% 3.40% 3.75% Lower 10% 0.45% 0.60% 0.90% 0.80% 0.90% 1.10% Median 1.30% 1.70% 2.10% 2.05% 2.15% 2.35% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 2.30% 2.50% 2.90% 3.00% 2.80% 2.50% Lower 10% 1.00% 1.20% 1.50% 1.60% 1.70% 1.50% Median 1.50% 2.00% 2.40% 2.40% 2.30% 2.00% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 2.00% 2.45% 4.00% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% Lower 10% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 1.00% Median 1.50% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 2.00% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 2.05% 2.30% 2.60% 2.70% 2.82% 3.00% Lower 10% 0.75% 0.70% 0.80% 0.80% 0.50% 0.30% Median 1.10% 1.40% 1.50% 1.60% 1.70% 1.80% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 2.50% 2.80% 3.30% 3.50% 4.00% 4.00% Lower 10% 1.00% 1.20% 1.30% 1.40% 1.40% 1.20% Median 1.40% 1.60% 2.00% 2.20% 2.30% 2.00% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. October 2012 2027 2032 2.67% 2.66% 0.33% 0.14% 1.50% 1.40% 2.30% 2.30% 0.50% 0.50% 1.60% 1.40% 3.10% 3.20% 0.50% 0.40% 1.50% 1.30% 2.70% 2.70% 0.30% 0.10% 1.60% 1.40% 2.00% 2.00% 0.70% 0.30% 1.60% 1.40% 2.60% 2.50% 0.40% 0.30% 1.60% 1.50% 3.47% 3.44% 0.87% 0.84% 2.17% 2.14% 2.80% 2.70% 0.40% 0.30% 1.60% 1.50% 1.40% 1.40% 3.90% 3.80% 1.20% 1.10% 2.40% 2.20% 2.40% 2.40% 1.20% 1.00% 1.80% 1.80% 3.00% 2.50% 1.00% 1.00% 2.00% 1.80% 3.00% 3.00% 0.30% 0.30% 1.80% 1.80% 4.00% 4.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.80% 1.80% 12 Arizona Non-Farm Employment Growth 2013 Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2014 2015 2016 2017 2022 2027 2032 3.50% 3.58% 4.32% 4.98% 4.93% 4.30% 5.94% 5.85% 1.10% 1.42% 1.68% 2.02% 1.87% 1.30% -0.74% -1.05% 2.30% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 3.40% 2.80% 2.60% 2.40% 3.30% 3.70% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 1.20% 1.50% 1.80% 1.80% 1.80% 1.00% -0.70% -0.90% 2.20% 2.50% 3.20% 3.30% 3.10% 2.50% 2.30% 2.20% 3.00% 3.50% 4.20% 4.40% 4.50% 4.80% 5.00% 5.30% 0.80% 1.00% 1.10% 1.00% 0.90% 0.60% 0.00% -2.00% 2.00% 2.20% 2.60% 2.80% 2.80% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.50% 4.10% 4.80% 5.00% 4.80% 4.50% 6.00% 6.00% 0.80% 1.30% 1.40% 1.60% 1.50% 1.00% -1.00% -1.00% 2.20% 2.70% 3.10% 3.30% 3.00% 2.50% 2.30% 2.10% 4.00% 4.50% 5.00% 5.50% 5.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% -3.00% -1.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% 2.20% 2.60% 3.20% 3.30% 3.10% 2.60% 2.30% 2.10% 2.80% 3.20% 3.50% 4.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 3.00% 1.50% 1.20% 0.50% 0.30% 0.20% 0.00% -0.50% -0.50% 2.40% 3.00% 3.00% 3.20% 3.50% 2.00% 1.70% 1.50% 6.81% 6.59% 6.14% 6.06% 5.90% 5.95% 5.68% 5.37% 0.01% -0.21% -0.66% -0.74% -0.90% -0.85% -1.12% -1.43% 3.21% 2.99% 2.54% 2.46% 2.30% 2.35% 2.08% 1.77% 3.48% 3.60% 4.00% 4.20% 4.40% 3.80% 5.20% 5.20% 1.08% 1.20% 1.20% 1.40% 1.60% 1.00% -0.80% -0.80% 2.28% 2.40% 2.60% 2.80% 3.00% 2.40% 2.20% 2.20% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 2.45% 3.16% 3.48% 4.10% 4.50% 4.85% 5.10% 4.90% 0.90% 1.20% 1.45% 1.67% 1.84% 1.10% 0.90% 1.20% 1.75% 2.55% 2.90% 3.40% 3.75% 3.50% 3.65% 3.75% 3.00% 3.50% 3.80% 4.00% 3.80% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 1.50% 1.80% 2.20% 2.50% 2.00% 1.80% 1.80% 1.80% 2.50% 3.00% 3.40% 3.50% 3.20% 3.00% 2.80% 2.50% 3.50% 3.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 2.00% 3.00% 2.00% 2.00% 1.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 3.50% 3.40% 3.00% 2.50% 3.28% 3.73% 4.00% 4.20% 4.50% 4.50% 5.00% 5.00% 1.03% -0.50% 0.00% 1.00% -0.10% -0.10% -0.50% -0.50% 2.15% 2.40% 2.40% 2.50% 2.70% 2.60% 2.20% 2.00% 3.10% 3.60% 5.50% 5.60% 5.40% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 1.40% 1.60% 2.00% 1.50% 1.20% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 2.10% 2.50% 3.30% 3.40% 3.20% 2.50% 2.40% 2.20% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. October 2012 13 Arizona Nominal Gas Price Growth 2013 Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 18.88% -8.88% 5.00% 2014 5.50% 2015 3.50% 2016 3.50% 2017 2022 2027 2032 28.76% 30.12% 41.92% -21.76% -23.12% -34.92% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 15.00% 15.00% 25.00% 30.00% 30.00% -5.00% -10.00% -10.00% -11.00% -15.00% -20.00% -20.00% -20.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 10.00% -4.00% 2.50% 8.00% 10.00% 11.00% 11.00% 12.00% 20.00% 25.00% -5.00% -7.00% -8.00% -9.00% -12.00% -15.00% -20.00% 2.70% 2.70% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 8.00% -1.00% 2.70% 7.00% -4.00% 2.20% 8.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 15.00% 15.00% -7.00% -8.00% -8.00% -8.00% -10.00% -10.00% 2.20% 2.30% 2.40% 2.60% 3.60% 3.60% 20.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 30.00% 40.00% 40.00% -20.00% -20.00% -20.00% -20.00% -20.00% -20.00% -20.00% -20.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 1.00% 0.00% 0.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% -10.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 15.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 15.00% 30.00% 20.00% 20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% -25.00% 10.00% -20.00% 0.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% -15.00% 20.00% -10.00% 10.00% Not Provided 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 14.50% 15.56% 12.80% 2.10% -4.80% -2.45% 8.50% 6.70% 5.84% 9.40% 12.50% 15.80% 12.50% 17.20% -4.30% -3.40% -6.40% 0.70% 0.60% 3.10% 2.85% -0.84% 1.50% 1.50% 20.00% 20.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -10.00% 0.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 15.00% 15.00% 3.00% 0.00% 5.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 10.25% -4.82% 2.71% 6.57% 8.19% 8.84% 8.05% 29.05% 28.87% 27.84% -8.50% -11.15% -10.50% -11.29% -21.98% -22.16% -23.19% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% -5.00% -8.00% -10.00% -12.00% -15.00% -25.00% -25.00% -25.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. October 2012 14 West Coast No. 2 Nominal Diesel Price Growth 2013 Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 17.86% -7.86% 5.00% 2014 6.00% 2015 4.60% 2016 3.40% 2017 2022 2027 2032 24.61% 24.15% 33.53% -18.21% -18.15% -27.53% 3.30% 3.20% 3.00% 3.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 15.00% 15.00% 25.00% 30.00% 30.00% -5.00% -10.00% -10.00% -11.00% -15.00% -20.00% -20.00% -20.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 10.00% 10.00% 11.00% 12.00% 13.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% -2.00% -5.00% -8.00% -9.00% -11.00% -15.00% -20.00% -22.00% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 2.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.00% 1.50% 8.00% -2.00% 3.00% 7.00% -5.00% 2.50% 8.00% 10.00% 10.00% 14.00% 14.00% 18.00% -5.00% -8.00% -8.00% -8.00% -10.00% -10.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.60% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 35.00% 35.00% 40.00% -10.00% -20.00% -20.00% -20.00% -20.00% -25.00% -25.00% -25.00% 2.70% -1.00% -1.50% -0.80% -1.60% 3.50% 3.40% 2.30% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% -10.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 5.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 15.00% 20.00% 15.00% 15.00% -20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% -30.00% 5.00% -25.00% -5.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% -20.00% 15.00% -15.00% 5.00% Not Provided 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% -15.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 12.75% 11.80% 12.80% 10.50% 12.20% 11.50% 10.90% 12.50% -2.00% -3.35% -5.60% -4.10% -2.30% -4.30% -2.50% -2.70% 8.00% 6.70% 6.80% 5.70% 8.20% 7.70% 6.20% 8.00% 20.00% 20.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -10.00% 0.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% Not Provided 10.00% -10.00% 2.71% 5.00% -8.00% 0.50% 5.00% -5.00% 0.50% 5.00% -3.00% 0.50% 5.00% -3.00% 0.50% 5.00% -3.00% 0.50% 5.00% -3.00% 0.50% 5.00% -3.00% 0.50% 10.00% 12.00% 12.00% 18.00% 20.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% -6.00% -10.00% -12.00% -13.00% -14.00% -20.00% -25.00% -30.00% 2.50% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. October 2012 15 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA NOMINAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 15.4% 14.4% 10.0% 10.0% 12.7% 15.6% 18.3% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 16.9% 15.0% 9.8% 7.8% 11.9% 12.0% 9.9% 8.6% 7.8% 7.3% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 6.0% 5.3% 6.0% 6.9% 8.8% 9.4% 8.6% 8.5% 9.3% 8.2% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 8.3% 7.5% 4.5% 4.4% 7.2% 10.0% 10.3% 7.7% 4.6% -0.7% 2010 2011 2012* 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -1.1% 3.9% 5.0% BEA for FY 1973-2011, Western Blue Chip, June 2012 for FY 2012* and FY 2013, and ADOT staff for FY 2014-32. Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 22.0% 22% 20.0% 20% 18.0% 18% 16.0% 16% 14.0% 14% 12.0% 12% 10.0% 10% 8.0% 8% 6.0% 6% 4.0% 4% 2.0% 2% 0.0% 0% -2.0% -2% -4.0% -4% -6.0% -6% 73 7374 7475 7576 7677 7778 78 7979 8080 8181 8282 8383 8484 8585 8686 8787 8888 8989 9090 9191 9292 9393 9494 9595 9696 9797 9898 9999 0000 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 12 11 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2012 Historical Min. Max. -1.1% 5.0% -1.1% 10.3% -1.1% 18.3% Mean 2.3% 5.1% 8.8% Std. Dev. 3.0% 3.9% 4.2% 80% Range Lower Upper -1.0% 4.8% -0.8% 10.0% 4.5% 15.1% 16 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 3.3% 5.6% 5.9% 5.8% 4.6% 2.8% 2.7% 3.4% 3.7% 4.8% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 3.9% 2.6% 2.8% 2.7% 3.3% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 2.9% 2.5% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1.7% 2.8% 3.4% 3.8% 4.4% 4.4% 3.5% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 3.0% 2.2% 2.3% 2.6% 3.1% 3.5% 3.2% 2.6% 1.5% 0.3% 2010 2011 2012* 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0.2% 0.6% 1.2% BEA FY 1970-2000. FY 2001-2011 from ADOA Office of Employment and Population Statistics. FY 2012* and FY 2013 based on June 2012 Western Blue Chip (Arizona) while FY 2014-2015 from ADOT staff. FY 2016-2032 based on DES/ADOA Arizona Population Projections 2006-2055 growth rates dated March 31, 2006. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 7.0% 7% Percent Change 6.0% 6% 5.0% 5% 4.0% 4% 3.0% 3% 2.0% 2% 1.0% 1% 0.0% 0% 70 69 72 71 74 73 76 75 78 77 80 79 82 81 84 83 86 85 88 87 90 89 92 91 94 93 96 95 98 97 00 99 02 01 04 03 06 05 08 07 10 09 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2012 Historical Min. Max. 0.2% 1.5% 0.2% 3.5% 0.2% 5.9% Mean 0.8% 1.9% 3.1% Std. Dev. 0.6% 1.3% 1.3% 80% Range Lower Upper 0.2% 1.4% 0.3% 3.3% 1.5% 4.6% 17 11 12 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA TOTAL NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 4.0% 9.6% 10.9% 8.6% -0.5% 1.4% 4.8% 9.0% 10.9% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 6.6% 2.3% 1.1% 0.0% 9.0% 8.9% 6.4% 3.7% 3.3% 2.2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2.3% 1.1% 1.1% 3.1% 5.6% 6.4% 5.7% 5.2% 4.7% 4.4% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 4.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.7% 2.5% 4.5% 5.2% 3.2% -0.3% -4.7% 2010 2011 2012* 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -4.7% -0.5% 1.5% Bureau of Labor Statistics for FY 1971-2011, ADOA, Arizona's Workforce Report, May 4, 2012 for FY 2012* and 2013, and ADOT staff estimates for FY 2014-2032. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 14.0% 14% 12.0% 12% Percent Change 10.0% 10% 8.0% 8% 6.0% 6% 4.0% 4% 2.0% 2% 0.0% 0% -2.0% -2% -4.0% -4% -6.0% -6% -8.0% -8% 71 72 73 74 74 75 75 76 76 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 8182 8283 8384 8485 8586 8687 8788 88898990909191929293939494 9595 9696 9797 9898 9999 0000 0101 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 12 11 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2012 Historical Min. Max. -4.7% 1.5% -4.7% 5.2% -4.7% 10.9% Mean -1.7% 0.8% 3.7% Std. Dev. 2.8% 3.4% 3.7% 80% Range Lower Upper -4.7% 0.8% -4.7% 4.6% -0.3% 9.0% 18 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA NOMINAL GAS PRICE GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -0.3% -9.2% -25.2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 13.8% -16.0% 14.2% -3.3% -0.5% 7.2% 9.0% -10.3% -16.8% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 37.2% 20.2% -21.9% 25.4% 21.6% 17.4% 32.1% 0.5% 20.2% -19.3% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 4.7% 20.1% 16.1% U.S. Department of Energy (EIA Administration) for FY 1985-2011, AAA Arizona for FY 2012 and Global Insight, 2nd Quarter 2012, Trend Forecast report for FY 2013-32 HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 50.0% 50% 40.0% 40% Percent Change 30.0% 30% 20.0% 20% 10.0% 10% 0.0% 0% -10.0% -10% -20.0% -20% -30.0% -30% -40.0% -40% -50.0% -50% 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 9797 9898 9999 0000 01 01 02 0203 0304 0405 0506 06 07 07 08 Fiscal Year 08 09 09 10 10 11 HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2012 Historical Min. Max. -19.3% 20.2% -19.3% 32.1% -21.9% 37.2% Mean 8.4% 13.9% 7.8% Std. Dev. 16.7% 14.8% 16.9% 80% Range Lower Upper -9.7% 20.2% -1.4% 26.0% -16.7% 25.0% 19 11 12 HISTORICAL DATA WEST COAST NO. 2 NOMINAL DIESEL PRICE GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 2.7% 6.4% 43.3% 31.4% 5.8% 10.0% 9.1% 22.4% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 48.1% 30.2% 4.3% -8.0% -6.8% 0.1% -4.0% 2.1% 2.3% 1.2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 14.2% 4.6% -3.2% 3.1% 2.7% -3.4% 4.9% 5.8% -11.8% -5.9% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 25.0% 16.4% -16.4% 12.4% 13.6% 27.8% 25.5% 2.7% 25.8% -17.2% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -3.4% 23.5% 14.2% U.S. Department of Energy (EIA Administration) for FY 1972-2012 and Global Insight, 2nd Quarter 2012, Trend Forecast report for FY 2013-32 HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 50.0% 50% 40.0% 40% Percent Change 30.0% 30% 20.0% 20% 10.0% 10% 0.0% 0% -10.0% -10% -20.0% -20% -30.0% -30% -40.0% -40% -50.0% -50% 72 73 74 75 75 76 7677 7778 7879 7980 8081 8182 8283 8384 8485 8586 8687 8788 8889 8990 9091 91 92 92 9393 9494 9595 9696 9797 9898 9999 0000 0101 0202 0303 0404 0505 0606 0707 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 12 11 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2012 Historical Min. Max. -17.2% 25.8% -17.2% 27.8% -17.2% 48.1% Mean 8.6% 12.5% 8.8% Std. Dev. 18.4% 14.7% 15.0% 80% Range Lower Upper -11.7% 24.9% -4.8% 26.0% -6.8% 27.8% 20