Arizona Department of Transportation ARIZONA HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND Forecasting Process & Results FY 2012-2021 Financial Management Services October 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 1 Background 1 Risk Analysis Panel 2 Model Results 2 Summary 3 Supplementary Information 1. HURF Official Revenue Forecast 2. HURF Revenue Risk Analysis Results by Probability 3. HURF Official Revenue Forecast Distribution 4. Official Forecast Results (Official, Mean, 80%, 20%) 5. Panel Mean Data Values 6. Panel Members Inputs by Independent Variable 7. Independent Variable Historical Values 4 5 6 7-10 11 12-17 18-23 ARIZONA HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES Introduction This document presents the forecast of expected values for the Arizona Highway User Revenue Fund for the period FY 2012-2021, as prepared by the Arizona Department of Transportation. Background The State of Arizona taxes motor fuels and collects a variety of fees relating to the registration and operation of motor vehicles in the state. These collections include gasoline and use fuel taxes, motor carrier fees, vehicle license taxes, motor vehicle registration fees, and other miscellaneous fees. These revenues are deposited in the Arizona Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) and are then distributed to the cities, towns and counties of the State and to the State Highway Fund, which is administered by the Department. These taxes and fees represent a source of revenues available to the state for highway related expenses. Since 1986, the Department has estimated Highway Revenues using a comprehensive regression-based econometric model. In 1989, the model was updated by Dr. Alberta Charney of the University of Arizona. The model relied on the estimates of certain “independent variables” to predict future tax revenues. Any variability between estimated and actual values could lead to variances in the tax forecast. In order to deal with this variability, the Department introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies upon probability analysis and the independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. This results in a series of forecasts with specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate. In 1997, Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB), working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State University, developed a new forecasting model to incorporate certain economic data generated over the past ten years and evaluate the inclusion of independent variables absent from the 1989 model, to enhance the model’s forecasting accuracy. The new model also took into consideration 1997 legislation which eliminated the weight distance tax on motor carriers, increased weight and use fees for use class vehicles, and changed the point of taxation on fuel. In September 2000 and 2003, HLB reviewed the model and updated the equations. The independent variables contained in the model in 2003 included Arizona Real Income Growth Per Capita, Population Growth, Wage & Salary Employment Growth and Fleet Fuel Efficiency. In 2005, HDR\HLB developed a new forecasting model to incorporate additional economic data that would enhance the model’s forecasting accuracy. The Arizona Real Gross Domestic Product Growth independent variable was added to the model to incorporate the impact of the Arizona economy on the commercial registration activities. In September 2008, HDR\HLB reviewed the forecasting model and added the Arizona Real Gas Price Growth independent variable to improve the model’s forecasting accuracy for changes in Arizona gasoline consumption. In September 2009, HDR\HLB reviewed the forecasting model and added the West Coast No. 2 Real Diesel Price Growth independent variable to improve the model’s forecasting accuracy for changes in Arizona use fuel (diesel) consumption. In September 2011, the income, gross October 2011 1 domestic product, gas price and diesel price variables were converted to nominal dollars at the request of the panel members from the August 2010 RAP panel meeting. The updated model now includes:        Arizona nominal personal income Arizona population Arizona non-farm employment Arizona nominal gross domestic product Arizona fleet fuel efficiency (Not part of RAP Process) Arizona nominal gas price West Coast No. 2 nominal diesel price Risk Analysis Panel The Risk Analysis Process relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economic and financial participants to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In September 2011, a panel of fifteen economic and finance experts representing public, private, and academic sectors submitted their individual estimates of the model’s independent variables and comments on the future economic outlook. The information gathered from the panelists was input into the model to produce a series of forecasts with associated probabilities of occurrence. The panelists’ inputs are reflected in the attached tables at the back of this report. Model Results This year’s panel inputs produced a mean forecast of $14,359.2 million for the period FY 2012-2021 with a compound growth rate of 3.4 percent. The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2012-2021 amounts to $13,938.3 million with a compound growth rate of 3.1 percent. The Official Forecast incorporates the 50 percent confidence interval for FY 2013-2021. The FY 2012 forecast of $1,216.3 million was developed in July 2011 by ADOT staff using time-series techniques, historical and projected growth rates from the model, and recent legislative changes. FY 2012 Official Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total Ave. CGR October 2011 Mean Forecast $1,234.1 1,267.9 1,307.1 1,351.9 1,402.1 1,453.6 1,506.0 1,558.8 1,612.1 1,665.6 $14,359.2 3.4% Official Forecast $1,216.3 1,241.9 1,274.9 1,314.8 1,360.4 1,408.7 1,457.2 1,502.9 1,556.0 1,605.2 $13,938.3 3.1% Confidence Level N/A 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 2 For comparison purposes, the October 2010 Official Forecast and the October 2011 Official Forecast are shown below: FY 2012-2021 Comparative Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total Ave. CGR Oct. 10 Official Forecast $1,220.7 1,250.6 1,293.5 1,343.5 1,397.5 1,452.0 1,508.2 1,565.1 1,624.9 1,688.7 $14,344.7 3.7% Oct. 11 Official Forecast $1,216.3 1,241.9 1,274.9 1,314.8 1,360.4 1,408.7 1,457.2 1,502.9 1,556.0 1,605.2 $13,938.3 3.1% Difference ($4.4) (8.7) (18.6) (28.7) (37.1) (43.2) (51.0) (62.2) (68.9) (83.5) ($406.4) Summary The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2012-2021 totals $13,938.3 million, a decrease of $406.4 million from the October 2010 Official Forecast. The Risk Analysis Process panel members remained pessimistic not only in the short term but also for the longer term in Arizona. For four years now, the panel has voiced concern over the future growth in population, personal income and employment. The panel does not expect the Arizona economic activity to rebound to historical averages and they remain concerned about the short term growth due to the continuing weakness of the real estate market, lack of employment growth and the uncertainty in the global economy. Supplementary Information The remaining pages of this report present supplementary information on the detailed results of the Risk Analysis Process, the Department’s model and the values of the independent variables forecast by the expert panel. While the Official Forecast period is FY 2012-2021 panel inputs were requested for FY 2012-2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031. Data displayed for other than the requested years, has been extrapolated. October 2011 3 October 2011 HURF OFFICIAL REVENUE FORECAST With Category Detail and Confidence Interval By Fiscal Year (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year Percentile 2011 Actual 2012 N/A 2013 50% 2014 50% 2015 50% 2016 50% 2017 50% 2018 50% 2019 50% 2020 50% 2021 50% Gasoline Tax $456.3 $459.0 $461.7 $466.1 $474.0 $484.3 $494.3 $503.3 $512.8 $522.8 $531.6 Use Fuel Tax 178.7 184.1 189.4 193.6 199.0 203.9 209.6 216.3 222.3 229.6 235.8 36.3 37.0 39.0 40.4 41.8 43.3 44.9 46.3 47.6 49.4 50.7 Vehicle License Tax 322.0 321.5 330.6 347.3 365.8 387.2 410.6 434.9 456.8 483.2 509.3 Registration 156.1 159.9 160.9 165.5 170.2 175.3 180.7 185.5 190.2 195.3 199.8 55.6 54.8 60.3 62.0 64.0 66.4 68.6 70.9 73.2 75.7 78.0 Motor Carrier Fee Other Total $1,205.1 $1,216.3 $1,241.9 $1,274.9 $1,314.8 $1,360.4 $1,408.7 $1,457.2 $1,502.9 $1,556.0 $1,605.2 4 October 2011 HURF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year Mean 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2012 $1,234.1 $1,437.5 $1,360.1 $1,301.0 $1,257.0 $1,219.5 $1,183.6 $1,147.0 $1,103.5 $1,051.9 2013 1,267.9 1,556.5 1,444.0 1,359.4 1,295.9 1,241.9 1,192.2 1,140.8 1,085.2 1,015.9 2014 1,307.1 1,642.5 1,511.0 1,412.2 1,336.3 1,274.9 1,216.5 1,155.9 1,094.8 1,014.1 2015 1,351.9 1,717.5 1,576.3 1,465.9 1,381.8 1,314.8 1,251.2 1,185.7 1,118.8 1,031.2 2016 1,402.1 1,798.8 1,644.6 1,525.6 1,434.3 1,360.4 1,290.4 1,220.6 1,151.0 1,059.5 2017 1,453.6 1,876.3 1,711.3 1,585.8 1,483.8 1,408.7 1,337.6 1,260.3 1,184.7 1,087.5 2018 1,506.0 1,954.0 1,779.4 1,644.1 1,538.6 1,457.2 1,379.1 1,299.9 1,222.4 1,119.2 2019 1,558.8 2,031.4 1,846.1 1,701.7 1,592.0 1,502.9 1,423.0 1,340.3 1,259.2 1,150.8 2020 1,612.1 2,108.5 1,915.9 1,762.9 1,645.4 1,556.0 1,468.6 1,381.4 1,298.6 1,180.4 2021 1,665.6 2,183.1 1,983.3 1,819.1 1,702.7 1,605.2 1,514.3 1,424.8 1,337.7 1,213.1 5 October 2011 HURF OFFICIAL REVENUE FORECAST DISTRIBUTION (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total HURF $1,216.3 1,241.9 1,274.9 1,314.8 1,360.4 1,408.7 1,457.2 1,502.9 1,556.0 1,605.2 $13,938.3 DPS/ ESP /1 $208.6 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 $307.6 Net HURF $1,007.7 1,230.9 1,263.9 1,303.8 1,349.4 1,397.7 1,446.2 1,491.9 1,545.0 1,594.2 $13,630.7 DPS Parity Comp. Fund /2 ($2.4) (2.5) (2.6) (2.8) (3.0) (3.1) (3.3) (3.5) (3.7) (3.9) ($30.8) ADOT 50.5% /3,4 $395.8 619.1 635.6 655.6 678.5 702.7 727.0 749.9 776.6 801.2 $6,742.0 Cities/Towns 27.5% $277.1 338.5 347.6 358.5 371.1 384.4 397.7 410.3 424.9 438.4 $3,748.4 Cities +300K 3% $30.2 36.9 37.9 39.1 40.5 41.9 43.4 44.8 46.4 47.8 $408.9 Counties 19% /4 $195.6 233.9 240.1 247.7 256.4 265.6 274.8 283.5 293.6 302.9 $2,593.9 6 NOTES: FY 2012 HURF estimate based on July 2011 Forecast. FY 2013-2021 HURF estimate based on October 2011 Official Forecast. /1. The DPS/ESP includes $1 million for Economic Strength Project (ESP) each year. The DPS transfer in FY 2012 is $120.7 million per Laws 2011, 1st Regular Session, Chapter 24, (SB 1612) and $10 million each year thereafter, which is subject to change. FY 2012 also includes a $624,800 appropriation to MVD for the registration compliance program and $86.3 million for MVD operations per Laws 2011, 1st Regular Session, Chapter 24 (SB 1612). /2. Per Laws 2005, Chapter 306 (SB 1119), 1.51 percent of the state highway fund share of HURF VLT is transferred to the DPS Parity Compensation Fund. /3 Net of the DPS Parity Compensation Fund. FY 2012 net of a $105.8 million transfer from the state highway fund share of HURF VLT to the state general fund per Laws 2011, 1st Regular Session, Chapter 24 (SB 1612). In addition to the DPS Parity Compensation Fund, FY 2013-2021 includes transfers per Laws 2011, 1st Regular Session, Chapter 28 (SB 1616) which transfers the state highway fund share of HURF VLT difference between the two-year registration and the five-year registration to the state general fund. Laws 2010, 7th Special Session, Chapter 12 (HB 2012) an amount equal to 90 percent of the fees collected under 28-4802 (A) and 60 percent of the fees collected under 28-4802 (B) shall be transferred from the state highway fund share of HURF VLT to the state general fund. /4. Per Laws 2011, 1st Regular Session, Chapter 28 (SB 1616), $4.1 million is distributed from the state highway fund share of HURF to the 10 least populated counties in FY 2012. OFFICIAL FORECAST RESULTS (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Official Mean 80% Conf. 20% Conf. Year Forecast Forecast Interval Interval 2012 $1,216.3 $1,234.1 $1,103.5 $1,360.1 2013 1,241.9 1,267.9 1,085.2 1,444.0 2014 1,274.9 1,307.1 1,094.8 1,511.0 2015 1,314.8 1,351.9 1,118.8 1,576.3 2016 1,360.4 1,402.1 1,151.0 1,644.6 2017 1,408.7 1,453.6 1,184.7 1,711.3 2018 1,457.2 1,506.0 1,222.4 1,779.4 2019 1,502.9 1,558.8 1,259.2 1,846.1 2020 1,556.0 1,612.1 1,298.6 1,915.9 2021 1,605.2 1,665.6 1,337.7 1,983.3 $2,300 $2,200 $2,100 Millions of Current Dollars $2,000 $1,900 $1,800 $1,700 $1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 2012 October 2011 2013 2014 Official 2015 2016 Mean 2017 2018 80% Conf. 2019 2020 2021 20% Conf. 7 ARIZONA NOMINAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH 10.0% Growth Rate 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH 6.0% 5.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Fiscal Year Median October 2011 Lower 10% Upper 10% 8 ARIZONA NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 8.0% 6.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% ARIZONA NOMINAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH 10.0% Growth Rate 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Fiscal Year Median October 2011 Lower 10% Upper 10% 9 ARIZONA NOMINAL GAS PRICE GROWTH 30.0% 20.0% Growth Rate 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% WEST COAST NO. 2 NOMINAL DIESEL PRICE GROWTH 30.0% Growth Rate 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Fiscal Year Median October 2011 Lower 10% Upper 10% 10 PANELIST MEAN DATA VALUES FY 2012 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2013 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2014 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2015 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2016 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2021 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2026 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2031 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median October 2011 AZ Nominal Income Growth Arizona Population Growth Arizona Non-Farm Employ. Growth AZ Nominal GDP Growth AZ Nominal Gas Price Growth West Coast Nominal Diesel Price Growth 4.96 2.08 3.34 1.68 0.55 1.14 2.15 0.22 1.11 5.80 2.32 4.05 11.12 -2.54 3.38 10.26 -1.51 4.04 5.71 2.81 4.19 1.95 0.84 1.41 2.81 0.68 1.69 6.25 2.54 4.49 12.18 -2.96 3.18 11.04 -2.17 3.75 6.65 3.13 4.75 2.34 1.10 1.77 3.47 1.06 2.31 6.68 2.79 4.94 13.91 -3.42 4.70 12.23 -3.50 4.38 7.12 3.58 5.34 2.69 1.33 2.05 3.94 1.40 2.59 7.00 3.01 5.30 13.04 -3.09 4.20 11.84 -3.63 4.41 7.24 3.64 5.49 2.79 1.32 2.20 4.33 1.48 2.85 7.01 2.92 5.29 13.38 -3.33 4.95 12.33 -4.48 4.18 7.00 2.76 4.73 2.72 1.13 2.00 4.12 0.86 2.51 6.80 2.76 4.79 14.49 -6.31 3.69 14.17 -7.01 3.70 6.87 2.38 4.43 2.64 0.98 1.78 4.09 0.58 2.33 6.98 2.38 4.64 15.16 -8.74 2.61 16.08 -7.70 2.83 6.89 2.21 4.33 2.52 0.85 1.63 3.98 0.35 2.39 7.14 2.15 4.64 15.96 -9.28 2.50 -16.83 -8.20 2.71 11 ARIZONA NOMINAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH 2012 2013 2014 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 3.00 3.50 3.50 Lower 10% 1.50 1.00 1.00 Median 2.00 2.50 2.80 Panelist 2 Upper 10% 5.50 6.10 7.30 Lower 10% 3.50 4.30 4.70 Median 4.50 5.20 6.00 Panelist 3 Upper 10% 5.00 5.50 6.00 Lower 10% 2.50 3.00 3.50 Median 3.00 4.50 5.00 Panelist 4 Upper 10% 4.80 5.20 6.40 Lower 10% -1.50 1.00 0.80 Median 2.00 3.50 3.50 Panelist 5 Upper 10% 4.60 5.60 6.90 Lower 10% 3.00 4.00 4.20 Median 3.60 4.50 5.50 Panelist 6 Upper 10% 5.00 6.00 6.50 Lower 10% 1.00 2.00 2.00 Median 3.00 4.00 4.50 Panelist 7 Upper 10% 4.80 5.40 6.40 Lower 10% 2.80 3.20 3.60 Median 3.60 4.00 4.80 Panelist 8 Upper 10% 7.60 8.60 9.20 Lower 10% 1.20 2.20 2.80 Median 3.20 4.20 4.80 Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Not Provided Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% 4.50 6.00 6.50 Lower 10% 3.00 3.50 3.80 Median 4.00 5.00 5.50 Panelist 11 Upper 10% 4.85 5.85 7.07 Lower 10% 2.75 4.00 4.24 Median 3.40 4.80 5.60 Panelist 12 Upper 10% 3.50 4.00 5.50 Lower 10% 1.00 2.00 3.00 Median 2.50 3.50 4.50 Panelist 13 Upper 10% 6.50 7.00 10.00 Lower 10% 4.00 4.50 5.00 Median 6.00 6.50 7.00 Panelist 14 Upper 10% 5.00 6.00 6.30 Lower 10% 1.50 1.70 2.00 Median 2.50 2.50 2.50 Panelist 15 Upper 10% 4.80 5.20 5.60 Lower 10% 2.90 3.00 3.20 Median 3.50 4.00 4.50 October 2011 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 4.00 4.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 1.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 7.80 7.60 7.00 7.00 7.00 5.20 5.20 2.60 2.20 2.00 6.50 6.40 4.80 4.60 4.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 5.50 5.50 3.50 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.50 5.50 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.50 6.90 7.10 7.30 7.40 7.60 1.50 2.00 1.50 0.50 0.00 3.70 4.00 4.20 4.20 4.20 7.50 7.90 7.60 7.50 7.70 5.10 5.30 3.00 2.50 2.30 6.40 6.60 5.10 4.60 4.60 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 5.50 5.50 5.00 5.00 5.00 7.20 7.80 7.50 7.50 7.50 4.20 4.20 3.80 3.50 3.50 6.00 6.50 5.50 5.00 5.00 9.10 8.70 8.40 7.70 7.40 3.70 3.30 2.00 1.30 1.00 4.70 4.30 4.00 3.30 3.00 7.50 8.00 7.80 7.50 7.20 4.30 4.70 4.50 4.00 3.50 6.00 7.00 6.00 5.50 5.50 7.67 7.77 7.47 7.34 7.50 5.13 5.23 2.73 2.26 2.10 6.40 6.50 5.10 4.80 4.80 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 9.00 9.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.00 2.50 8.00 8.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 6.50 6.80 7.00 7.30 7.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.10 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 6.50 6.80 6.50 6.50 6.50 3.50 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 5.00 5.50 5.00 5.00 5.00 12 ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 15 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median October 2011 1.00 1.00 1.50 1.50 2.00 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.70 1.90 2.20 2.40 2.40 2.60 2.40 2.40 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.60 1.60 1.00 0.60 0.40 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.00 1.80 1.50 1.40 1.50 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.25 2.00 -0.50 0.50 1.00 1.30 1.30 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.80 1.50 1.50 1.80 1.90 2.30 2.70 2.90 3.00 3.20 3.30 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.20 1.20 0.80 0.60 0.40 1.20 1.50 1.60 1.80 2.00 1.70 1.50 1.30 1.80 2.10 2.60 3.00 2.80 2.90 2.60 2.50 0.50 1.00 1.40 1.70 1.80 1.20 1.00 0.60 1.20 1.50 2.00 2.20 2.40 2.00 1.90 1.40 0.80 1.00 1.60 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 0.20 0.50 0.80 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.70 1.20 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.30 1.80 2.40 2.80 2.80 2.50 2.40 2.10 0.80 0.90 0.90 0.80 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.50 1.10 1.30 1.30 1.50 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.40 3.00 3.20 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.20 3.10 3.10 1.20 1.40 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.70 1.30 1.30 2.10 2.30 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.60 2.20 2.20 0.80 1.00 1.40 2.50 3.00 2.90 2.30 1.80 0.30 0.30 0.40 1.00 1.20 1.20 0.80 0.40 0.50 0.70 0.90 1.80 2.40 2.20 1.90 1.10 1.70 2.00 2.20 2.50 2.80 2.70 2.60 2.50 0.90 1.10 1.20 1.50 1.60 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.30 1.50 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.10 1.90 1.80 1.80 2.22 2.80 3.15 3.10 2.97 3.10 3.05 0.26 0.81 1.25 1.85 1.54 1.28 1.25 1.42 1.10 1.70 2.10 2.50 2.34 2.50 1.91 1.79 1.30 1.50 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.70 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.40 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.00 1.20 1.60 2.00 2.20 2.20 2.00 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.50 2.50 2.50 2.00 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 1.50 1.00 2.20 2.50 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 0.90 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.50 1.70 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.20 2.30 2.50 2.50 2.40 2.40 2.40 0.50 0.80 1.10 1.30 1.30 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.20 1.50 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.00 2.00 2.00 13 ARIZONA NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 15 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 1.50 2.00 0.50 0.00 1.00 1.50 2.50 0.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.80 2.90 0.20 1.10 1.50 2.00 3.70 1.30 2.50 4.30 5.00 4.80 5.10 5.60 1.70 2.00 0.80 0.10 -0.80 3.00 3.50 2.80 2.60 2.40 2.00 3.00 0.00 1.00 0.70 1.70 4.00 1.30 2.10 4.50 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 1.80 1.80 0.50 0.00 -0.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00 3.00 0.30 0.70 1.00 1.40 3.60 1.00 2.00 4.20 4.30 4.80 5.00 5.30 1.10 1.10 0.60 0.00 -2.00 2.60 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.50 3.10 0.70 1.30 1.60 2.20 4.40 1.60 3.00 4.90 5.00 4.80 4.60 4.60 2.00 2.20 1.00 0.00 -0.50 3.40 3.60 2.80 2.60 2.00 2.00 2.50 0.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 3.00 1.00 2.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.90 1.90 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.30 2.30 1.50 2.30 0.90 0.50 1.20 1.80 3.20 0.30 2.40 4.50 5.10 2.40 2.40 2.40 0.30 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 2.80 1.70 1.50 1.50 2.50 3.40 0.50 1.40 1.50 2.40 3.70 1.70 2.70 3.60 3.30 2.70 2.50 2.50 1.60 1.30 0.70 0.50 0.50 2.60 2.30 1.70 1.50 1.50 1.00 2.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 1.50 2.80 1.00 2.00 3.40 4.00 3.80 3.70 3.60 1.30 1.70 1.00 0.50 0.00 2.60 2.80 2.50 2.20 2.00 2.80 3.15 0.00 0.95 1.00 1.70 3.44 1.60 2.60 3.78 3.94 4.84 5.01 4.80 1.80 1.70 0.00 0.10 1.40 2.90 3.40 3.70 3.60 3.75 1.50 2.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.50 2.50 0.50 2.00 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.00 3.00 1.50 2.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 2.50 3.00 2.50 2.30 2.10 2.50 3.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 4.50 2.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 5.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.50 3.50 3.00 2.50 4.00 Not Provided 3.50 4.00 4.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 0.50 1.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 2.00 2.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 3.50 4.50 3.50 3.00 3.00 1.50 1.80 1.50 1.00 1.00 2.60 3.00 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.70 1.00 2.00 All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. October 2011 14 ARIZONA NOMINAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 Panelist 1 3.00 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.50 4.00 3.50 Upper 10% 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Lower 10% 1.50 1.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Median Panelist 2 6.60 7.10 7.00 7.60 7.20 6.80 7.60 Upper 10% 2.30 2.60 2.90 3.20 2.90 3.20 2.40 Lower 10% 4.70 5.10 5.40 5.90 5.60 5.00 5.00 Median Panelist 3 6.50 6.50 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.50 Upper 10% 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.50 2.50 2.00 Lower 10% 4.50 4.80 5.00 5.50 5.00 5.00 5.00 Median Panelist 4 6.00 6.80 7.00 7.10 7.20 7.40 7.60 Upper 10% 2.00 2.10 2.60 2.70 2.50 1.80 1.00 Lower 10% 3.90 4.50 4.80 5.20 5.00 4.50 4.50 Median Panelist 5 6.00 7.00 7.70 9.00 9.00 7.50 7.80 Upper 10% 1.50 2.50 3.40 5.00 5.00 3.90 2.50 Lower 10% 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 Median Panelist 6 7.00 7.10 7.40 7.40 7.00 7.00 7.70 Upper 10% 2.50 2.50 2.70 2.70 2.80 3.20 2.50 Lower 10% 4.50 5.00 5.50 5.60 5.40 5.10 5.10 Median Panelist 7 5.30 5.90 6.90 7.70 8.30 8.00 8.00 Upper 10% 3.30 3.70 4.10 4.70 4.70 4.30 4.00 Lower 10% 4.10 4.50 5.30 6.50 7.00 6.00 5.50 Median Panelist 8 6.70 6.60 6.30 6.00 5.80 6.00 6.00 Upper 10% 2.30 2.20 1.90 1.60 1.40 1.50 1.50 Lower 10% 4.50 4.70 5.10 4.60 4.30 4.00 3.50 Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Not Provided Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 6.20 6.00 5.80 Upper 10% 2.50 2.80 3.10 3.20 3.10 3.00 2.80 Lower 10% 4.00 4.50 4.50 5.00 4.80 4.60 4.20 Median Panelist 11 6.04 6.71 6.83 6.74 6.96 6.98 7.71 Upper 10% 2.35 2.46 3.04 3.14 2.84 3.22 2.49 Lower 10% 4.50 4.80 5.60 5.70 5.40 5.10 5.10 Median Panelist 12 5.00 6.00 6.50 6.50 7.00 6.50 6.00 Upper 10% 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 Lower 10% 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.00 5.50 5.00 5.00 Median Panelist 13 5.50 6.00 7.00 8.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 Upper 10% 2.50 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.56 Lower 10% 4.00 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.00 5.00 5.00 Median Panelist 14 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 Upper 10% 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50 2.60 Lower 10% 3.50 3.80 4.00 4.30 4.50 4.80 5.00 Median Panelist 15 7.00 7.30 7.90 8.00 8.50 7.00 7.00 Upper 10% 3.20 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.20 3.00 3.00 Lower 10% 5.00 5.20 5.50 6.00 6.50 5.00 5.00 Median All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. October 2011 2031 3.50 0.00 2.00 8.10 1.90 5.00 7.50 2.00 5.00 8.00 0.00 4.50 8.00 2.00 5.00 8.20 2.00 5.10 8.00 4.00 5.50 6.00 1.50 3.50 5.50 2.50 4.00 8.23 1.97 5.10 6.00 4.00 5.00 7.00 2.56 5.00 9.00 2.70 5.30 7.00 3.00 5.00 15 ARIZONA NOMINAL GAS PRICE GROWTH Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 15 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 5.00 1.50 2.00 5.00 1.50 2.50 5.00 1.00 3.00 7.50 1.00 3.00 7.50 1.00 3.00 7.50 1.00 3.00 6.60 1.40 4.00 13.40 19.40 12.60 13.30 13.30 14.80 16.00 -3.40 -8.40 -5.60 -6.30 -6.30 -7.00 -8.00 5.00 5.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 5.00 1.00 2.50 7.50 1.00 3.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 0.00 -2.50 -5.00 -5.00 -5.00 -10.00 -15.00 -15.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 2.50 2.50 10.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 14.00 20.00 25.00 -1.00 -2.00 -4.00 -5.00 -5.50 -10.00 -15.00 -20.00 3.80 2.50 2.70 2.70 2.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 10.00 10.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 12.00 20.00 20.00 2.00 -2.00 -2.00 -3.00 -3.00 -9.00 -9.00 -10.00 5.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 10.00 10.00 8.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 5.00 3.00 5.00 8.00 1.00 3.00 6.00 2.00 5.00 5.00 1.00 3.00 5.00 1.00 3.00 5.00 1.00 3.00 15.00 15.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 2.00 -2.00 -5.00 -5.00 -5.00 -10.00 -10.00 -10.00 7.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 10.00 15.00 35.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 15.00 15.00 -30.00 -20.00 -10.00 -10.00 -10.00 -20.00 -35.00 -35.00 -20.00 -10.00 10.00 5.00 15.00 5.00 -10.00 -10.00 Not Provided 8.00 3.00 6.00 10.00 12.00 13.00 12.00 11.00 10.00 10.00 -2.00 -5.00 -6.00 -6.00 -8.00 -10.00 -10.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 7.50 7.00 7.00 7.00 14.06 15.56 12.80 9.40 12.00 17.50 17.40 17.40 -8.00 -5.60 -6.50 -4.68 -4.88 -10.10 -13.35 -13.95 8.00 7.00 4.10 3.10 2.80 -0.80 1.50 1.50 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 -10.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 20.00 25.00 5.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 15.00 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 -2.50 -2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 12.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 0.00 -5.00 -7.00 -8.00 -10.00 -12.00 -15.00 -15.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. October 2011 16 WEST COAST NO. 2 NOMINAL DIESEL PRICE GROWTH Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 15 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 5.00 1.50 2.00 5.00 1.50 2.50 5.00 1.00 2.50 5.00 1.00 3.00 7.50 1.00 3.00 7.50 1.00 3.00 7.50 1.00 3.00 7.50 1.00 3.00 6.10 1.90 4.00 11.90 20.00 15.70 12.50 14.00 18.00 20.00 -1.90 -8.00 -6.50 -5.70 -10.00 -16.00 -18.00 5.00 6.00 4.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 3.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 0.00 -2.50 -5.00 -5.00 -5.00 -10.00 -15.00 -15.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 2.50 2.50 10.00 9.00 11.00 12.00 14.00 15.00 16.00 18.00 1.00 -2.00 -4.50 -5.00 -7.00 -12.00 -13.00 -15.00 4.00 3.00 3.00 2.70 2.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 10.00 10.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 12.00 20.00 20.00 3.00 -3.00 -3.00 -4.00 -4.00 -10.00 -10.00 -12.00 5.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 Not Provided 15.00 15.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 2.00 -2.00 -5.00 -5.00 -5.00 -10.00 -10.00 -10.00 7.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 -10.00 -10.00 -10.00 -10.00 -10.00 -20.00 -20.00 -20.00 -5.00 -3.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 -5.00 -5.00 Not Provided 8.00 3.00 7.00 11.00 13.00 14.00 15.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 -1.00 -4.00 -8.00 -12.00 -13.00 -12.00 -12.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 8.50 8.00 8.00 8.00 14.06 15.56 12.80 9.40 12.00 17.50 17.40 17.40 -8.00 -5.60 -6.50 -8.00 -12.00 -5.10 -2.40 -2.40 8.00 7.00 4.10 3.10 2.80 -0.80 1.50 1.50 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 -10.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 20.00 25.00 0.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 -2.50 -2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 Not Provided All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. October 2011 17 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA NOMINAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 15.4% 14.4% 10.0% 10.0% 12.7% 15.6% 18.3% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 16.9% 15.0% 9.8% 7.8% 11.9% 12.0% 9.9% 8.6% 7.8% 7.3% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 6.0% 5.3% 6.0% 6.9% 8.8% 9.4% 8.6% 8.5% 9.3% 8.2% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 8.3% 7.5% 4.5% 4.4% 7.2% 10.0% 10.3% 7.7% 4.0% 0.1% 2010 2011* 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -0.1% 2.8% BEA for FY 1973-2000, Western Blue Chip, June 2011 for FY 2011* and FY 2012, and ADOT staff for FY 2013-31. Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 22.0% 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2011 Historical Min. Max. Mean -0.1% 7.7% 2.9% -0.1% 10.3% 5.1% -0.1% 18.3% 8.9% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 3.2% 0.0% 6.2% 3.7% 0.1% 10.0% 4.1% 4.3% 15.1% 18 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 3.3% 5.6% 5.9% 5.8% 4.6% 2.8% 2.7% 3.4% 3.7% 4.8% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 3.9% 2.6% 2.8% 2.7% 3.3% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 2.9% 2.5% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1.7% 2.8% 3.4% 3.8% 4.4% 4.4% 3.5% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 3.0% 2.2% 2.3% 2.6% 3.1% 3.5% 3.2% 2.6% 1.5% 0.3% 2010 2011* 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0.2% 1.1% BEA FY 1970-2000. FY 2001-2010 interim re-benchmark figures from ADOA Office of Employment and Population Statistics. FY 2011 * and FY 2012 based on June 2011 Western Blue Chip (Arizona) w hile FY 2013-2015 from ADOT staff. FY 2016-2031 based on ADOC Arizona Population Projections 2006-2055 grow th rates dated March 31, 2006. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 7.0% Percent Change 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2011 Historical Min. Max. 0.2% 2.6% 0.2% 3.5% 0.2% 5.9% Mean 1.1% 2.0% 3.2% Std. Dev. 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 80% Range Lower Upper 0.2% 2.2% 0.3% 3.3% 1.8% 4.6% 19 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA TOTAL NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 4.0% 9.6% 10.9% 8.6% -0.5% 1.4% 4.8% 9.0% 10.9% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 6.6% 2.3% 1.1% 0.0% 9.0% 8.9% 6.4% 3.7% 3.3% 2.2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2.3% 1.1% 1.1% 3.1% 5.6% 6.4% 5.7% 5.2% 4.7% 4.4% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 4.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.7% 2.6% 4.5% 5.2% 3.2% -0.3% -4.7% 2010 2011 * 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -4.8% -0.7% Bureau of Labor Statistics for FY 1971-2010, ADOC, Arizona's Workforce Report, April 28, 2011 for FY 2011* and 2012, and ADOT staff estimates for FY 2013-2031. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% Percent Change 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2011 Historical Min. Max. Mean -4.8% 3.2% -1.5% -4.8% 5.2% 0.6% -4.8% 10.9% 3.8% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 3.4% -4.7% 1.8% 3.4% -4.7% 4.6% 3.7% -0.3% 9.0% 20 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA NOMINAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 18.4% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 14.7% 11.6% 7.7% 7.9% 13.7% 12.7% 10.1% 8.8% 7.8% 6.3% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 4.3% 3.9% 8.4% 10.2% 10.3% 10.9% 9.1% 7.9% 8.0% 8.6% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 7.8% 6.1% 4.6% 5.5% 6.6% 8.7% 10.7% 7.9% 2.7% -2.0% 2010 2011* 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -1.3% 3.4% BEA for FY 1979-2010 and then regressed from U.S. Nominal GDP, Global Insight, 1st Quarter, Trend Forecast report for FY 2011*-3 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 22.0% 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2011 Historical Min. Max. Mean -2.0% 7.9% 2.1% -2.0% 10.7% 4.7% -2.0% 18.4% 7.9% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 4.0% -1.7% 6.1% 4.1% -1.4% 8.9% 4.1% 3.5% 12.5% 21 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA NOMINAL GAS PRICE GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -0.3% -9.2% -25.2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 13.8% -16.0% 14.2% -3.3% -0.5% 7.2% 9.0% -10.3% -16.8% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 37.2% 20.2% -21.9% 25.4% 21.6% 17.4% 32.1% 0.5% 20.2% -19.3% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 4.7% 20.1% U.S. Department of Energy (EIA Administration) for FY 1985-2011, and Global Insight, 1st Quarter 2011, Trend Forecast report for FY 2012-31 HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 50.0% 40.0% Percent Change 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 Fiscal Year 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2011 Historical Min. Max. Mean -19.3% 20.2% 5.3% -21.9% 32.1% 10.1% -21.9% 37.2% 7.4% Std. Dev. 16.3% 18.6% 17.2% 80% Range Lower Upper -11.3% 20.2% -19.5% 26.0% -16.8% 25.4% 22 HISTORICAL DATA WEST COAST NO. 2 NOMINAL DIESEL PRICE GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 2.7% 6.4% 43.3% 31.4% 5.8% 10.0% 9.1% 22.4% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 48.1% 30.2% 4.3% -8.0% -6.8% 0.1% -4.0% 2.1% 2.3% 1.2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 14.2% 4.6% -3.2% 3.1% 2.7% -3.4% 4.9% 5.8% -11.8% -5.9% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 25.0% 16.4% -16.4% 12.4% 13.6% 27.8% 25.5% 2.7% 25.8% -17.2% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -3.4% 23.5% U.S. Department of Energy (EIA Administration) for FY 1972-2011, and Global Insight, 1st Quarter 2011, Trend Forecast report for FY 2012-31 HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 50.0% 40.0% Percent Change 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2011 Historical Min. Max. Mean -17.2% 25.8% 6.3% -17.2% 27.8% 9.4% -17.2% 48.1% 8.7% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 18.3% -11.7% 24.9% 17.2% -16.5% 26.0% 15.1% -6.9% 28.1% 23