Arizona Department of Transportation ARIZONA HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND Forecasting Process & Results FY 2011-2020 Financial Management Services October 2010 ARIZONA HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES Introduction This document presents the forecast of expected values for the Arizona Highway User Revenue Fund for the period FY 2011-2020, as prepared by the Arizona Department of Transportation. Background The State of Arizona taxes motor fuels and collects a variety of fees relating to the registration and operation of motor vehicles in the state. These collections include gasoline and use fuel taxes, motor carrier fees, vehicle license taxes, motor vehicle registration fees, and other miscellaneous fees. These revenues are deposited in the Arizona Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) and are then distributed to the cities, towns and counties of the State and to the State Highway Fund, which is administered by the Department. These taxes and fees represent the primary source of revenues available to the state for highway construction, improvements and other related expenses. Since 1986, the Department has estimated Highway Revenues using a comprehensive regression-based econometric model. In 1989, the model was updated by Dr. Alberta Charney of the University of Arizona. The model relied on the estimates of certain “independent variables” to predict future tax revenues. Any variability between estimated and actual values could lead to variances in the tax forecast. In order to deal with this variability, the Department introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies upon probability analysis and the independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. This results in a series of forecasts with specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate. In 1997, Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB), working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State University, developed a new forecasting model to incorporate certain economic data generated over the past ten years and evaluate the inclusion of independent variables absent from the 1989 model, to enhance the model’s forecasting accuracy. The new model also took into consideration 1997 legislation which eliminated the weight distance tax on motor carriers, increased weight and use fees for use class vehicles, and changed the point of taxation on fuel. In September 2000 and 2003, HLB reviewed the model and updated the equations. The independent variables contained in the model in 2003 included Arizona Real Income Growth Per Capita, Population Growth, Wage & Salary Employment Growth and Fleet Fuel Efficiency. In 2005, HDR\HLB developed a new forecasting model to incorporate additional economic data that would enhance the model’s forecasting accuracy. The Arizona Real Gross Domestic Product Growth independent variable was added to the model to incorporate the impact of the Arizona economy on the commercial registration activities. In September 2008, HDR\HLB reviewed the forecasting model and added the Arizona Real Gas Price Growth independent variable to improve the model’s forecasting accuracy for changes in Arizona gasoline consumption. In September 2009, HDR\HLB reviewed the forecasting model and added the West Coast No. 2 Real Diesel Price Growth independent variable to improve the model’s forecasting accuracy for changes in Arizona use fuel (diesel) consumption. The updated model now includes: October 2010 1 • • • • • • • Arizona real income growth per capita Arizona population Arizona non-farm employment Arizona real gross domestic product Arizona fleet fuel efficiency (Not part of RAP Process) Arizona real gas price growth West Coast No. 2 real diesel price growth Risk Analysis Panel The Risk Analysis Process relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economic and financial participants to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In August 2010, a panel of fifteen economic and finance experts representing public, private, and academic sectors submitted their individual estimates of the model’s independent variables and comments on the future economic outlook. The information gathered from the panelists was input into the model to produce a series of forecasts with associated probabilities of occurrence. The panelists’ inputs are reflected in the attached tables at the back of this report. Model Results This year’s panel inputs produced a mean forecast of $14,373.4 million for the period FY 2011-2020 with a compound growth rate of 3.8 percent. The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2011-2020 totals $13,861.5 million with a compound growth rate of 3.4 percent. The Official Forecast incorporates the 50 percent confidence interval for FY 20122020. The FY 2011 forecast of $1,205.5 million was developed in July 2010 by ADOT staff using timeseries techniques, historical and projected growth rates from the model, and recent legislative changes. FY 2011 Official Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total Ave. CGR Mean Forecast $1,219.1 1,252.2 1,292.9 1,341.2 1,395.1 1,452.7 1,512.3 1,573.3 1,635.7 1,698.8 $14,373.4 3.8% Official Forecast $1,205.5 1,220.7 1,250.6 1,293.5 1,343.5 1,397.5 1,452.0 1,508.2 1,565.1 1,624.9 $13,861.5 3.4% Confidence Level N/A 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% For comparison purposes, the September 2009 Official Forecast and the October 2010 Official Forecast are shown below: October 2010 2 FY 2011-2020 Comparative Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total Ave. CGR Sep. 09 Official Forecast $1,264.6 1,298.0 1,346.5 1,398.4 1,458.0 1,516.5 1,575.9 1,642.3 1,710.8 1,780.1 $14,991.1 3.9% Oct. 10 Official Forecast $1,205.5 1,220.7 1,250.6 1,293.5 1,343.5 1,397.5 1,452.0 1,508.2 1,565.1 1,624.9 $13,861.5 3.4% Difference ($59.1) (77.3) (95.9) (104.9) (114.5) (119.0) (123.9) (134.1) (145.7) (155.2) ($1,129.6) Summary The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2011-2020 totals $13,861.5 million, a decrease of $1,129.6 million from the September 2009 Official Forecast. The Risk Analysis Process panel members overall forecasted lower growth for all the independent variables through FY 2015 when compared to their September 2009 inputs. The panel for three years in a row has voiced concern over the Arizona economy due mainly to the uncertainty in the real estate market, negative job growth and slower population growth in the first few years of the forecast period. The panel does not expect Arizona to return to normal growth patterns until FY 2015 and those growth rates will be lower than their estimates during the FY 2003-2007 real estate bubble in Arizona. Supplementary Information The remaining pages of this report present supplementary information on the detailed results of the Risk Analysis Process, the Department’s model and the values of the independent variables forecast by the expert panel. While the Official Forecast period is FY 2011-2020, panel inputs were requested for FY 2011-2016, 2021 and 2026. Data displayed for other than the requested years, has been extrapolated. October 2010 3 October 2010 HURF OFFICIAL REVENUE FORECAST With Category Detail and Confidence Interval By Fiscal Year (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year Percentile 2010 Actual 2011 N/A 2012 50% 2013 50% 2014 50% 2015 50% 2016 50% 2017 50% 2018 50% 2019 50% 2020 50% Gasoline Tax $455.4 $461.3 $467.1 $474.6 $484.4 $495.9 $507.0 $515.3 $526.1 $537.9 $548.4 Use Fuel Tax 171.3 178.2 171.1 171.8 174.2 178.2 183.1 188.5 194.4 200.5 207.3 35.8 36.3 38.3 39.4 40.6 41.9 43.3 44.7 46.1 47.4 49.1 Vehicle License Tax 329.9 325.0 336.9 351.8 375.3 401.4 430.9 463.4 494.7 525.6 559.1 Registration 152.2 154.4 156.1 160.3 164.6 169.5 174.4 179.1 183.7 188.4 193.6 49.7 50.3 51.2 52.7 54.4 56.6 58.8 61.0 63.2 65.3 67.4 Motor Carrier Fee Other Total $1,194.4 $1,205.5 $1,220.7 $1,250.6 $1,293.5 $1,343.5 $1,397.5 $1,452.0 $1,508.2 $1,565.1 $1,624.9 4 October 2010 HURF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year Mean 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2011 $1,219.1 $1,452.4 $1,361.0 $1,301.3 $1,247.6 $1,201.3 $1,160.2 $1,117.9 $1,067.0 $1,008.1 2012 1,252.2 1,588.0 1,451.0 1,359.6 1,285.8 1,220.7 1,162.2 1,103.0 1,035.5 958.0 2013 1,292.9 1,682.5 1,520.2 1,416.6 1,328.1 1,250.6 1,185.3 1,121.4 1,042.5 953.9 2014 1,341.2 1,764.5 1,592.9 1,477.0 1,376.5 1,293.5 1,223.2 1,152.2 1,069.6 969.5 2015 1,395.1 1,852.1 1,661.7 1,538.3 1,434.2 1,343.5 1,265.2 1,191.9 1,102.6 995.2 2016 1,452.7 1,937.1 1,734.3 1,602.2 1,494.5 1,397.5 1,312.3 1,235.0 1,142.3 1,030.6 2017 1,512.3 2,027.6 1,810.6 1,670.1 1,552.9 1,452.0 1,365.9 1,281.3 1,181.3 1,068.3 2018 1,573.3 2,112.1 1,884.1 1,737.8 1,612.7 1,508.2 1,418.7 1,329.6 1,228.2 1,110.5 2019 1,635.7 2,203.1 1,967.1 1,812.3 1,680.3 1,565.1 1,473.6 1,378.2 1,270.6 1,146.5 2020 1,698.8 2,295.8 2,043.9 1,884.7 1,740.8 1,624.9 1,528.4 1,429.5 1,313.4 1,186.1 5 October 2010 HURF OFFICIAL REVENUE FORECAST DISTRIBUTION (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total HURF $1,205.5 1,220.7 1,250.6 1,293.5 1,343.5 1,397.5 1,452.0 1,508.2 1,565.1 1,624.9 $13,861.5 DPS/ ESP /1 $80.2 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 $179.2 Net HURF $1,125.3 1,209.7 1,239.6 1,282.5 1,332.5 1,386.5 1,441.0 1,497.2 1,554.1 1,613.9 $13,682.2 DPS Parity Comp. Fund /2 ($2.5) (2.6) (2.7) (2.9) (3.1) (3.3) (3.5) (3.8) (4.0) (4.3) ($32.5) ADOT 50.5% /3 $522.2 608.3 623.3 644.8 669.8 696.9 724.2 752.3 780.8 810.8 $6,833.4 Cities/Towns Cities +300K 27.5% 3% $309.4 $33.8 332.7 36.3 340.9 37.2 352.7 38.5 366.4 40.0 381.3 41.6 396.3 43.2 411.7 44.9 427.4 46.6 443.8 48.4 $3,762.6 $410.5 Counties 19% $213.8 229.8 235.5 243.7 253.2 263.4 273.8 284.5 295.3 306.6 $2,599.6 NOTES: FY 2011 HURF estimate based on July 2010 Forecast. FY 2012-2020 HURF estimate based on October 2010 Official Forecast. /1. The DPS/ESP includes $1 million for Economic Strength Project (ESP) each year. The DPS transfer in FY 2011 is $78.6 million per Laws 2010, 7th Special Session, Chapter 1, (HB 2001) and $10 million each year thereafter, which is subject to change. FY 2011 includes a $620,400 appropriation to MVD for the registration compliance program per Laws 2010, 7th Special Session, Chapter 1 (HB 2001). /2. Per Laws 2005, Chapter 306 (SB 1119), 1.51 percent of the state highway fund share of HURF VLT is transferred to the DPS Parity Compensation Fund. /3 Net of the DPS Parity Compensation Fund. FY 2011 net of a $43.6 million transfer from the state highway fund share of HURF VLT to the state general fund per Laws 2010, 7th Special Session, Chapter 1 (HB 2001). 6 OFFICIAL FORECAST RESULTS (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Official Mean 80% Conf. 20% Conf. Year Forecast Forecast Interval Interval 2011 $1,205.5 $1,219.1 $1,067.0 $1,361.0 2012 1,220.7 1,252.2 1,035.5 1,451.0 2013 1,250.6 1,292.9 1,042.5 1,520.2 2014 1,293.5 1,341.2 1,069.6 1,592.9 2015 1,343.5 1,395.1 1,102.6 1,661.7 2016 1,397.5 1,452.7 1,142.3 1,734.3 2017 1,452.0 1,512.3 1,181.3 1,810.6 2018 1,508.2 1,573.3 1,228.2 1,884.1 2019 1,565.1 1,635.7 1,270.6 1,967.1 2020 1,624.9 1,698.8 1,313.4 2,043.9 Total $13,861.5 $14,373.4 $11,453.1 $17,026.8 $2,300 $2,200 $2,100 Millions of Current Dollars $2,000 $1,900 $1,800 $1,700 $1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 2011 October 2010 2012 2013 Official 2014 2015 Mean 2016 2017 80% Conf. 2018 2019 2020 20% Conf. 7 ARIZONA REAL INCOME PER CAPITA 6.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH 6.0% 5.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Fiscal Year Median October 2010 Lower 10% Upper 10% 8 ARIZONA NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT 8.0% 6.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% ARIZONA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 8.0% 6.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Fiscal Year Median October 2010 Lower 10% Upper 10% 9 ARIZONA NOMINAL GAS PRICE 30.0% 20.0% Growth Rate 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% WEST COAST NO. 2 NOMINAL DIESEL PRICE 30.0% Growth Rate 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Fiscal Year Median October 2010 Lower 10% Upper 10% 10 PANELIST MEAN DATA VALUES Income Growth FY 2011 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2012 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2013 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2014 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2015 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2016 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2021 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2026 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Population Non-Farm Growth Employ. Growth AZ GDP Growth AZ Nominal Gas West Coast Nominal Price Growth Diesel Price Growth 0.79 -1.74 -0.55 1.72 0.27 1.00 1.39 -1.89 -0.43 3.33 -0.23 1.59 14.33 -3.12 5.49 13.41 -3.48 5.17 1.26 -1.27 0.16 2.15 0.75 1.45 2.87 -0.34 1.39 4.03 0.43 2.22 14.61 -3.72 5.61 13.53 -4.05 5.22 1.78 -0.64 0.72 2.56 1.11 1.88 4.01 0.93 2.41 4.52 0.96 2.69 15.26 -4.55 5.80 14.23 -5.14 5.24 2.35 -0.16 1.24 2.95 1.38 2.26 4.36 1.21 2.87 4.75 1.12 2.85 15.06 -5.39 4.97 14.05 -5.69 4.61 2.83 0.21 1.48 3.02 1.39 2.28 4.61 1.26 3.07 4.94 1.16 3.07 14.89 -5.43 4.84 13.83 -5.95 4.41 2.87 0.22 1.49 3.03 1.30 2.28 4.65 1.17 3.04 4.87 0.94 2.99 15.08 -7.02 4.47 14.61 -7.29 4.00 3.04 -0.34 1.33 2.82 1.09 1.93 4.63 -0.01 2.56 4.99 0.42 2.83 19.70 -10.99 3.88 19.40 -11.59 3.88 3.06 -0.48 1.20 2.74 0.98 1.83 4.64 -0.05 2.52 5.07 0.33 2.77 20.88 -11.80 4.17 20.44 -12.06 4.10 All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. October 2010 11 ARIZONA REAL PER CAPITA INCOME GROWTH 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.50 1.50 Lower 10% -2.00 -2.00 -2.00 -2.00 -2.00 0.00 0.00 Median -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 Panelist 2 Upper 10% 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 Lower 10% -1.50 -1.00 -1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.00 Median -0.50 0.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 Panelist 3 Upper 10% -0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.25 Lower 10% -1.50 -1.00 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.25 0.50 Median -1.00 0.00 0.20 0.50 1.00 1.25 1.30 Panelist 4 Upper 10% 1.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 Lower 10% -2.00 -2.00 -0.50 0.00 1.50 1.50 1.00 Median -1.20 -0.80 1.20 1.80 2.60 2.40 2.40 Panelist 5 Upper 10% 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 Lower 10% -1.00 -1.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.00 0.00 Median 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 Panelist 6 Upper 10% 0.20 1.00 2.00 3.20 3.80 2.80 4.00 Lower 10% -2.00 -1.00 0.00 0.80 1.40 0.50 -1.50 Median -0.50 0.00 1.40 2.10 2.40 2.00 1.60 Panelist 7 Upper 10% 2.50 1.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Lower 10% -1.00 -1.30 -1.50 -1.50 -1.50 -1.50 -1.50 Median 1.50 1.30 -0.70 -1.50 -1.50 -1.50 -1.50 Panelist 8 Upper 10% 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.80 3.00 2.80 3.00 Lower 10% -1.50 -0.90 -0.20 0.70 1.20 0.40 -1.30 Median -0.34 0.23 0.95 1.90 2.10 1.61 1.58 Panelist 9 Upper 10% 0.50 1.00 1.30 1.80 2.50 2.00 2.00 Lower 10% -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.20 0.30 0.20 0.20 Median -0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.20 0.80 0.50 Panelist 10 Upper 10% 0.60 1.50 2.10 3.40 3.80 3.90 5.00 Lower 10% -2.10 -1.40 -0.50 0.80 1.20 1.00 -0.20 Median -0.70 -0.40 0.70 2.00 2.50 2.20 1.80 Panelist 11 Upper 10% 1.00 1.50 2.00 1.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 Lower 10% -2.00 -1.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.00 Median -1.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 Panelist 12 Upper 10% 1.50 1.80 2.80 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.40 Lower 10% -2.50 -1.80 -0.80 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.60 Median -0.50 0.00 1.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.40 Panelist 13 Upper 10% 1.00 3.00 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 Lower 10% -2.40 -1.40 -0.60 -0.60 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 Median -1.00 0.50 1.00 2.57 2.30 2.30 2.30 Panelist 14 Upper 10% 0.60 1.30 2.00 2.80 3.30 3.50 4.00 Lower 10% -1.80 -1.50 -1.00 -0.30 0.00 -1.00 -1.20 Median -1.00 0.10 0.80 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.50 Panelist 15 Upper 10% 1.50 1.80 2.50 3.20 3.50 4.00 3.00 Lower 10% -1.80 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 0.00 Median -0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.20 2.80 1.50 All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. October 2010 2026 1.50 0.00 1.00 2.00 -1.00 1.00 2.25 0.50 1.30 4.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 0.00 1.50 4.20 -1.70 1.30 1.00 -1.50 -1.50 3.00 -1.50 1.37 2.00 0.20 0.50 4.80 -0.50 1.60 3.00 1.00 1.70 3.30 -0.70 1.30 4.50 -0.50 2.30 4.50 -1.50 1.50 2.80 -1.00 1.20 12 ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 Panelist 1 1.50 1.50 1.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 Upper 10% 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Lower 10% 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.50 Median Panelist 2 1.80 1.80 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.50 2.30 Upper 10% 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Lower 10% 1.00 1.00 1.20 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 Median Panelist 3 1.25 1.75 2.00 2.50 2.50 2.75 2.50 Upper 10% 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 Lower 10% 1.00 1.25 1.50 2.00 2.20 2.20 2.00 Median Panelist 4 2.50 2.60 3.00 3.40 4.00 4.00 4.00 Upper 10% 1.00 1.50 1.80 1.80 2.00 2.00 1.00 Lower 10% 1.30 2.00 2.20 2.40 2.60 2.80 2.00 Median Panelist 5 1.70 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.00 2.50 2.50 Upper 10% 0.50 1.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.00 Lower 10% 1.00 1.20 2.00 2.30 2.20 2.20 1.50 Median Panelist 6 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 2.80 2.70 2.60 Upper 10% 0.80 1.20 1.60 2.00 1.60 1.50 0.90 Lower 10% 1.60 1.90 2.40 2.80 2.30 2.20 1.80 Median Panelist 7 2.20 2.70 2.70 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 Upper 10% 0.70 1.20 1.20 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Lower 10% 1.70 2.20 2.20 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 Median Panelist 8 1.50 2.00 2.60 3.20 3.30 3.20 2.80 Upper 10% 0.80 1.00 1.30 1.50 1.70 1.70 1.50 Lower 10% 1.20 1.60 2.00 2.40 2.50 2.50 2.10 Median Panelist 9 1.80 2.00 2.40 2.70 3.00 3.00 2.70 Upper 10% 0.50 0.80 1.00 1.00 1.20 1.00 0.80 Lower 10% 1.20 1.50 2.00 2.20 2.50 2.20 2.00 Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% -0.30 1.80 3.10 3.30 3.40 3.50 3.40 Lower 10% -2.30 0.20 1.80 2.20 2.10 1.90 1.80 -0.90 1.00 2.50 2.90 2.70 2.60 2.50 Median Panelist 11 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.50 Upper 10% Lower 10% -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Median Panelist 12 2.80 3.10 3.40 3.20 3.20 2.80 2.70 Upper 10% 0.80 1.10 1.40 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.10 Lower 10% 1.80 2.10 2.40 2.20 2.20 2.00 1.90 Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 1.80 2.20 2.50 3.00 3.10 3.00 3.00 Upper 10% 0.50 0.80 1.00 1.30 1.20 1.10 0.80 Lower 10% 1.10 1.50 1.90 2.20 2.00 2.00 1.50 Median Panelist 15 2.00 2.20 2.60 3.00 3.50 4.00 3.00 Upper 10% Lower 10% -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.20 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 2.00 Median All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. October 2010 2026 2.50 0.50 1.50 2.30 0.50 1.50 2.50 1.50 1.75 4.00 1.20 1.80 2.50 1.00 1.50 2.50 0.60 1.50 3.00 2.00 2.70 2.60 1.20 1.80 2.70 0.80 2.00 3.20 1.80 2.60 2.50 1.00 2.00 2.40 1.20 1.80 2.90 0.40 1.30 2.80 0.00 1.80 13 ARIZONA NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 15 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 0.00 1.00 2.00 2.50 4.00 4.00 3.00 3.00 -2.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 0.00 0.50 1.50 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 -0.50 0.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.50 -3.00 -2.00 1.00 -1.00 0.00 2.00 3.00 3.50 3.20 3.00 3.00 1.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 2.50 3.00 2.80 2.50 2.50 1.00 3.00 -1.50 0.00 -0.80 1.20 4.00 1.00 2.00 4.20 4.70 5.00 5.00 5.00 1.20 1.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 2.50 2.70 3.30 2.40 2.40 1.00 3.00 -1.50 0.00 -0.50 1.50 5.00 2.00 3.50 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 -2.00 -2.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.50 2.50 0.50 3.00 -2.00 0.90 -0.60 2.00 5.00 2.60 3.70 5.50 4.00 4.00 6.00 6.80 2.80 2.20 1.80 -1.60 -1.80 3.90 3.30 2.90 2.40 2.20 2.30 2.50 -1.70 0.00 0.30 1.90 2.50 0.30 2.30 3.00 3.50 3.50 4.00 4.00 0.30 0.90 1.20 1.50 1.90 2.60 2.90 3.20 3.50 3.90 0.80 2.80 -1.30 0.50 0.20 1.60 4.00 1.50 2.60 4.80 5.20 4.50 5.00 5.00 1.80 1.80 1.50 1.00 1.00 3.10 3.80 3.10 2.40 2.20 0.50 2.50 4.00 -3.00 -1.00 0.00 -2.00 1.00 3.00 5.00 6.00 5.50 5.50 5.50 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 4.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 3.00 0.30 2.80 -2.70 0.00 -0.90 1.70 4.60 2.50 3.50 5.40 5.80 5.70 6.90 6.60 2.70 1.80 1.70 0.00 0.10 3.80 4.10 4.00 3.70 3.60 2.50 3.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 4.00 2.00 3.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.00 4.00 2.50 3.00 2.50 1.50 1.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.50 4.00 5.50 -1.00 0.50 0.20 3.00 6.00 1.00 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.00 5.00 0.50 0.50 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 -2.00 -1.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 0.00 2.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 0.90 3.00 -1.60 0.00 0.20 1.50 5.00 0.80 2.20 5.30 5.40 5.80 6.50 6.70 0.90 0.70 0.00 -1.50 -2.00 2.60 2.80 2.80 2.50 2.50 2.00 4.00 5.00 -4.00 -1.00 0.70 -2.00 1.00 2.00 5.20 6.00 6.50 4.00 3.50 1.60 2.00 2.30 0.50 0.00 3.00 3.50 4.00 2.50 2.00 All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. October 2010 14 ARIZONA GROSS STATE PRODUCT GROWTH 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 Panelist 1 3.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 5.00 5.00 Upper 10% 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 0.00 0.00 Lower 10% 1.00 1.00 2.00 3.50 4.00 3.50 3.50 Median Panelist 2 2.00 3.00 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 Upper 10% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 Lower 10% 0.50 1.00 1.70 2.00 2.50 2.50 2.50 Median Panelist 3 0.00 1.00 2.50 2.50 3.00 3.50 3.50 Upper 10% -3.00 -2.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 1.50 Lower 10% -1.00 0.00 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 2.50 Median Panelist 4 2.30 3.00 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 Upper 10% -1.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.00 0.00 Lower 10% 0.00 1.00 1.50 1.60 2.00 2.20 1.80 Median Panelist 5 3.50 5.00 5.50 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.50 Upper 10% 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 1.50 -0.50 Lower 10% 2.50 3.00 3.50 3.00 3.00 2.50 2.50 Median Panelist 6 4.80 5.20 6.20 6.50 4.90 4.00 7.00 Upper 10% 0.80 2.00 2.40 2.60 2.00 1.20 -0.20 Lower 10% 2.00 3.50 4.00 4.20 3.80 3.60 3.40 Median Panelist 7 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Upper 10% -1.50 -1.50 -1.50 -1.50 -1.50 -1.50 -1.50 Lower 10% 1.60 0.80 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Median Panelist 8 4.00 5.00 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.00 5.00 Upper 10% 1.00 1.20 1.50 1.80 1.50 1.00 0.00 Lower 10% 2.20 2.80 3.50 4.00 4.50 3.56 3.00 Median Panelist 9 2.20 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 Upper 10% 1.20 1.50 1.70 2.00 2.30 1.50 1.50 Lower 10% 1.50 2.00 2.20 2.50 3.00 3.20 3.20 Median Panelist 10 4.10 5.10 5.60 5.50 5.80 5.90 6.00 Upper 10% 0.40 0.80 1.40 1.60 1.10 1.20 1.00 Lower 10% 2.40 3.70 4.20 4.00 4.50 4.40 4.30 Median Panelist 11 3.50 4.00 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Upper 10% 1.50 2.00 3.00 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 Lower 10% 2.50 3.00 4.00 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 Median Panelist 12 5.50 6.50 6.50 6.80 6.80 6.70 6.50 Upper 10% -0.50 0.50 0.50 -0.20 -0.20 -0.30 -0.50 Lower 10% 2.50 3.50 3.50 3.30 3.30 3.20 3.00 Median Panelist 13 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 Upper 10% -2.00 -1.00 1.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 Lower 10% 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 Median Panelist 14 4.00 4.90 5.50 6.00 6.60 7.00 7.40 Upper 10% -0.30 0.50 0.70 0.50 0.40 0.50 0.00 Lower 10% 1.90 3.00 3.50 3.60 3.70 3.20 3.40 Median Panelist 15 3.50 4.20 4.50 5.00 6.00 7.00 5.50 Upper 10% -1.00 1.00 1.20 1.50 1.80 1.50 0.00 Lower 10% 1.80 2.50 2.80 3.00 3.30 4.00 2.90 Median All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. October 2010 2026 6.00 0.00 3.50 4.00 1.00 2.50 3.50 1.50 2.50 4.00 0.00 1.80 4.50 -0.50 2.50 7.00 -0.60 3.20 2.00 -1.50 0.50 5.00 0.00 3.00 4.50 1.50 3.20 6.40 1.10 4.00 4.50 2.50 3.50 6.50 -0.50 3.00 5.50 1.50 2.50 7.60 -0.50 3.40 5.00 -0.50 2.50 15 ARIZONA NOMINAL GAS PRICE GROWTH 2011 Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 15 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 12.00 12.00 15.00 15.00 12.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 7.00 7.00 8.00 8.00 7.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 1.00 2.00 7.00 0.00 2.00 7.00 0.00 2.00 9.00 0.00 2.00 11.00 12.00 20.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 15.00 10.00 10.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 -5.00 -2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 5.00 5.00 8.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 12.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 20.00 20.00 2.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 6.00 6.00 4.50 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.50 5.50 8.00 8.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 25.00 25.00 2.00 -5.00 -5.00 -5.00 -6.00 -6.00 -20.00 -25.00 9.00 5.00 5.00 3.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 10.00 15.00 15.00 17.00 14.00 12.00 20.00 20.00 1.00 -2.00 -4.00 -5.00 -5.00 -5.00 -20.00 -20.00 4.00 4.20 5.00 5.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 20.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 -10.00 -5.00 -5.00 -5.00 -5.00 -5.00 -5.00 -5.00 7.00 10.00 10.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 -20.00 -20.00 -20.00 -20.00 -20.00 -20.00 -20.00 -20.00 5.00 5.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 7.00 2.00 5.00 8.00 2.50 6.00 9.00 10.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 3.00 3.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 7.00 7.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 23.31 24.06 25.56 22.80 19.40 22.00 27.50 27.40 -5.00 -8.00 -11.60 -15.00 -13.00 -29.00 -24.10 -24.00 9.60 8.00 7.00 4.10 3.10 2.80 -0.80 1.50 3.00 0.00 2.50 6.00 0.00 4.00 5.00 0.00 3.50 5.00 0.00 3.00 5.00 0.00 3.00 5.00 0.00 3.00 5.00 0.00 3.00 5.00 0.00 3.00 25.00 24.00 28.00 27.00 27.00 30.00 27.00 32.00 -5.00 -6.00 -12.00 -13.00 -13.00 -20.00 -23.00 -28.00 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 7.00 5.00 2.00 2.00 17.70 13.10 12.30 11.10 11.00 11.20 27.00 29.80 1.20 -3.30 -4.10 -5.40 -5.40 -5.30 -28.80 -26.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 15.00 18.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 30.00 35.00 -10.00 -5.00 -10.00 -15.00 -17.00 -17.00 -25.00 -30.00 3.80 4.00 3.50 3.00 3.00 2.70 1.00 1.00 10.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 15.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 -1.00 -5.00 -5.00 -6.00 -6.00 -6.00 -10.00 -10.00 3.00 5.00 4.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.00 6.00 All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. October 2010 16 WEST COAST NO. 2 NOMINAL DIESEL PRICE GROWTH 2011 Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 15 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 12.00 12.00 15.00 15.00 12.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 7.00 7.00 8.00 8.00 7.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 1.00 2.00 7.00 0.00 2.00 7.00 0.00 2.00 9.00 0.00 2.00 11.00 12.00 20.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 15.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 -5.00 -2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 6.00 6.00 8.00 -2.00 -1.80 -1.00 -0.50 1.00 1.50 8.00 0.00 2.00 10.00 15.00 25.50 25.50 1.00 2.00 8.00 8.00 2.50 3.00 10.00 10.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 25.00 25.00 2.00 -5.00 -5.00 -5.00 -6.00 -6.00 -20.00 -20.00 9.00 5.00 5.00 3.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 10.00 15.00 15.00 17.00 14.00 12.00 20.00 20.00 1.00 -2.00 -4.00 -5.00 -5.00 -5.00 -20.00 -20.00 4.00 4.20 5.00 5.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 20.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 -10.00 -5.00 -5.00 -5.00 -5.00 -5.00 -5.00 -5.00 7.00 10.00 10.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 -20.00 -20.00 -20.00 -20.00 -20.00 -20.00 -20.00 -20.00 5.00 5.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 1.00 3.00 7.00 1.50 4.00 8.00 1.50 5.00 9.00 2.00 5.00 10.00 9.00 2.50 2.00 6.00 5.00 8.00 3.00 6.00 8.00 3.00 6.00 19.50 19.80 20.20 19.70 17.50 20.00 21.50 21.30 -4.40 -7.20 -10.00 -12.50 -11.40 -21.00 -19.00 -18.90 9.60 8.00 7.00 4.10 3.10 2.80 -0.80 1.50 3.00 0.00 2.50 6.00 0.00 4.00 5.00 0.00 3.50 5.00 0.00 3.00 5.00 0.00 3.00 5.00 0.00 3.00 5.00 0.00 3.00 5.00 0.00 3.00 25.00 24.00 28.00 27.00 27.00 30.00 27.00 32.00 -5.00 -6.00 -12.00 -13.00 -13.00 -20.00 -23.00 -28.00 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 7.00 5.00 2.00 2.00 17.70 13.10 12.30 11.10 11.00 11.20 27.00 29.80 1.20 -3.30 -4.10 -5.40 -5.40 -5.30 -28.80 -26.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 15.00 18.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 30.00 35.00 -10.00 -5.00 -10.00 -12.00 -17.00 -17.00 -25.00 -30.00 3.90 4.10 3.60 3.00 3.00 2.70 1.00 1.00 8.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 15.00 22.00 25.00 -2.00 -5.00 -10.00 -12.00 -12.00 -15.00 -25.00 -25.00 5.00 5.00 4.00 4.00 3.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 All data in the above table are percentage growth rates. October 2010 17 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA REAL PER CAPITA INCOME GROWTH Using Phoenix CPI to Measure Inflation (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 3.4% 1.6% -7.2% -4.5% 2.3% 2.4% 0.4% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -2.0% -0.4% -0.8% 1.5% 4.4% 2.4% 2.5% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 -1.0% -1.7% -0.2% -0.4% 0.5% 0.5% -0.1% 0.3% 1.9% 1.6% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2.0% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 2.1% 3.5% 3.4% 1.6% -1.7% -2.7% 2010 * 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -1.5% * Estimate HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 0.06 0.06 10.0% 10.0% 0.06 0.1 0.1 Percent Percent PercentChange Change Change Percent Change 8.0% 8.0% 0.08 0.08 0.04 0.04 0.04 6.0% 0.06 6.0% 0.06 4.0% 0.04 4.0% 0.04 0.02 0.02 2.0% 0.02 2.0% 0.02 0.0% 0.0% 00 -2.0% -0.02 -2.0% -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -4.0% -0.04 -4.0% -0.04 -6.0% -0.06 -0.06 -6.0% -0.04 -0.04 -8.0% -0.08 -0.08 -8.0% -10.0% -0.1 -10.0% -0.06 -0.1 -0.06 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 0105 02 03 04 05 06 73 74 74 74 75 75 75 76 76 76 77 77 77 78 78 78 7979 79 79 8080 80 81 81 81 82 82 82 83 83 83 84 84 85 84 84 85 86 85 86 87 86 87 88 87 88 89 88 89 90 89 90 9193 90 92 91 91 93 92 92 94 93 93 95 94 96 94 95 97 95 96 98 96 97 99 97 98 0098 99 01 99 00 02 00 01 03 01 02 04 02 03 05 03 04 06 05 04 07 74 7374 75 7476 75 78 77 79 78 80 79 79 80 81 81 82 81 82 83 83 83 84 84 85 85 85 86 86 87 87 8788 88 89 90 90 91 91 91 92 92 93 93 9490 94 9595 96 97 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 99 01 00 01 02 01 03 02 03 04 03 04 05 06 05 07 06 07 0801 07 09 03 08 09 10 73 74 7577 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 02 73 75 76 77 78 80 81 82 83 84 85 8689 87 88 89 90 91 9296 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 Fiscal Year Fiscal FiscalYear Year Year Fiscal HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2010 Historical Min. Max. Mean -2.7% 3.4% -0.2% -2.7% 3.5% 0.7% -7.2% 4.4% 0.5% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 2.6% -2.3% 2.7% 2.2% -1.8% 3.4% 2.3% -1.8% 2.8% 18 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 3.3% 5.6% 5.9% 5.8% 4.6% 2.8% 2.7% 3.4% 3.7% 4.8% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 3.9% 2.6% 2.8% 2.7% 3.3% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 2.9% 2.5% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1.7% 2.8% 3.4% 3.8% 4.4% 4.4% 3.5% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.6% 3.0% 3.7% 3.6% 2.7% 2.2% 1.5% 2010 * 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1.2% BEA FY 1970-2009. FY 2010 * and FY 2011 based on June 2010 Arizona Blue Chip estimate w hile FY 2012-14 from ADOT staff. FY 2015-2026 based on ADOC Arizona Population Projections 2006-2055 grow th rates dated March 31, 2006. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 7.0% 0.07 Percent PercentChange Change 0.06 6.0% 0.05 5.0% 0.05 0.04 4.0% 0.04 0.03 3.0% 0.03 0.02 2.0% 0.02 0.01 1.0% 0.01 0 0.0% 0 62 63 63 62 62 63 70 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 65 69 717872 73 80 7576 85 87 89 8991 97 99 01 64 65 65 64 72 66 67 67 6674 68 69 69 68767071 70 73 73 72 74 75 75 74 82 77 77 767778 79 84 79 787980 81 86 81 8081 82 8383 88 8283 84 8585 84 9086 8787 86 9288 89 88 94 90 91 9092 96 939193 9294 95 989395 9496 97009597 96 98 9902 99 98 00 01 04 00 01 02 03 06 03 02 04 05 02 03 08 05 04 07 06 04 05 09 08 07 06 10 Fiscal Fiscal Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2010 Historical Min. Max. 1.2% 3.6% 1.2% 3.7% 1.2% 5.9% Mean 2.2% 2.6% 3.3% Std. Dev. 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 80% Range Lower Upper 1.3% 3.3% 1.5% 3.6% 2.5% 4.6% 19 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA TOTAL NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 4.0% 9.6% 10.9% 8.6% -0.5% 1.4% 4.8% 9.0% 10.9% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 6.6% 2.3% 1.1% 0.0% 9.0% 8.9% 6.4% 3.7% 3.3% 2.2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2.3% 1.1% 1.1% 3.1% 5.6% 6.4% 5.7% 5.2% 4.7% 4.4% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 4.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.7% 2.5% 4.5% 5.2% 3.2% -0.3% -4.7% 2010 * 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -4.8% * Estimate based on April 29, 2010, Arizona's Workforce Report, ADOC HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 14.0% 16.0% Percent Change 12.0% 14.0% 10.0% 12.0% 8.0% 10.0% 6.0% 8.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.0% -2.0% 0.0% -4.0% -2.0% -6.0% -4.0% -8.0% 71 72 72 73 73 74 74 75 75 76 76 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 8182 8283 8384 8485 8586 8687878888898990909191929293939494 9595 9696 9797 9898 9999 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2010 Historical Min. Max. Mean -4.8% 5.2% -0.3% -4.8% 5.2% 0.9% -4.8% 10.9% 3.9% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 4.5% -4.7% 4.4% 3.4% -4.7% 4.6% 3.7% -0.1% 9.0% 20 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH Using Phoenix CPI to Measure Inflation (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 5.6% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -0.1% -1.3% -0.5% 4.0% 9.8% 7.6% 7.1% 5.8% 3.2% 1.3% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 -0.8% 0.2% 4.5% 4.9% 5.5% 6.0% 3.7% 5.7% 5.9% 4.3% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 4.0% 3.0% 2.6% 3.2% 4.0% 6.3% 7.3% 3.5% -0.8% -1.6% 2010 * 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1.0% * Estimate HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 16.0% 0.16 16.0% 14.0% 0.14 14.0% Percent Percent Change PercentChange Change 12.0% 12.0% 0.12 10.0% 10.0% 0.1 8.0% 0.08 8.0% 6.0% 0.06 6.0% 4.0% 0.04 4.0% 2.0% 0.02 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 -2.0% -0.02 -2.0% -4.0% -0.04 -4.0% 7980 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 84 87 88 89 90 92 93 9494 95 96 97 98 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 08 09 79 79 80 808081 81 8181 82 82 8282 83 83 83 84 8484 85 85 8585 86 86 8687 86 8788 87 88 89 89 88 89 90 90 89 90 9191 91 90 92 91 92 93 91 92 93 94 93 92 95 94 9395 96 95 94 96 9795 96 95 98 9796 97 99 96 9899 98 00 99 97 01 99 00 98 02 00 01 99 03 01 02 04 00 02 03 05 01 03 04 0602 04 05 0703 05 06 08 04 06 07 09 10 07 05 Fiscal FiscalYear Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2010 Historical Min. Max. Mean -1.6% 7.3% 1.9% -1.6% 7.3% 2.9% -1.6% 9.8% 3.6% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 3.6% -1.3% 5.8% 2.8% -0.9% 6.4% 2.9% -0.8% 7.0% 21 HISTORICAL DATA ARIZONA NOMINAL GAS PRICE GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -0.3% -9.2% -25.2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 13.8% -16.0% 14.2% -3.3% -0.5% 7.2% 9.0% -10.3% -16.8% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 37.2% 2010 * 20.2% 2011 -21.9% 2012 25.4% 2013 21.6% 2014 17.4% 2015 32.1% 2016 0.5% 2017 20.2% 2018 -19.3% 2019 4.5% * Estimate ** Data not available for June 1987-December 1988. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 50.0% 40.0% Percent Change 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% 91 92 93 93 94 94 9595 9696 9797 9898 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 0203 0304 0405 0506 Fiscal Year 06 07 07 08 08 09 10 09 HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2010 Historical Min. Max. Mean -19.3% 32.1% 7.6% -21.9% 32.1% 10.1% -21.9% 37.2% 6.8% Std. Dev. 19.6% 18.6% 17.4% 80% Range Lower Upper -11.3% 27.3% -19.5% 26.0% -17.0% 26.0% 22 HISTORICAL DATA WEST COAST NO. 2 NOMINAL DIESEL PRICE GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 2.7% 6.4% 43.3% 31.4% 5.8% 10.0% 9.1% 22.4% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 48.1% 30.2% 4.3% -8.0% -6.8% 0.1% -4.0% 2.1% 2.3% 1.2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 14.2% 4.6% -3.2% 3.1% 2.7% -3.4% 4.9% 5.8% -11.8% -5.9% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 25.0% 2010 * 16.4% 2011 -16.4% 2012 12.4% 2013 13.6% 2014 27.8% 2015 25.5% 2016 2.7% 2017 25.8% 2018 -17.2% 2019 -3.9% * Estimate HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 50.0% 40.0% Percent Change 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% 91 73 74 72 92 75 76 93 77 78 94 79 80 95 81 82 96 83 84 97 85 86 98 87 88 99 89 90 00 91 92 01 93 94 02 95 96 03 97 98 04 99 00 05 01 02 06 03 04 07 05 06 08 07 08 09 09 10 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2010 Historical Min. Max. Mean -17.2% 25.8% 6.6% -17.2% 27.8% 8.7% -17.2% 48.1% 8.3% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 18.8% -11.9% 25.7% 16.8% -16.5% 26.0% 15.2% -7.1% 28.3% 23