Arizona Department of Transportation

ARIZONA HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND
Forecasting Process & Results
FY 2008-2017

Financial Management Services
September 2007

ARIZONA HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND
OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE
RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES
Introduction
This document presents the forecast of expected values for the Arizona Highway User
Revenue Fund for the period FY 2008-2017, as prepared by the Arizona Department of
Transportation.
Background
The State of Arizona taxes motor fuels and collects a variety of fees relating to the
registration and operation of motor vehicles in the state. These collections include gasoline
and use fuel taxes, motor carrier fees, vehicle license taxes, motor vehicle registration fees,
and other miscellaneous fees. These revenues are deposited in the Arizona Highway User
Revenue Fund (HURF) and are then distributed to the cities, towns and counties of the State
and to the State Highway Fund, which is administered by the Department. These taxes and
fees represent the primary source of revenues available to the state for highway
construction, improvements and other related expenses.
Since 1986, the Department has estimated Highway Revenues for the State using a
comprehensive regression-based econometric model. In 1989, the model was updated by
Dr. Alberta Charney of the University of Arizona. The model relied on the estimates of
certain “independent variables” to predict future tax revenues. The model’s revenue
forecast was highly dependent on estimates of the independent variables. Any variability
between estimated and actual values could lead to variances in the tax forecast. In order to
deal with this variability, the Department introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in
1992. The RAP relies upon probability analysis and the independent evaluation of the
model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. This results in a series of forecasts with
specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate.
In 1997, Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB), working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman
of Arizona State University, developed a new forecasting model to incorporate certain
economic data generated over the past ten years and evaluate the inclusion of independent
variables absent from the 1989 model, to enhance the model’s forecasting accuracy. HLB
also eliminated independent variables that were either not significant to the model or were
not readily available. The new model also took into consideration 1997 legislation which
eliminated the weight distance tax on motor carriers, increased weight and use fees for use
class vehicles, and changed the point of taxation on fuel. In September 2000 and 2003,
HLB reviewed the model and updated the equations. The independent variables contained
in the model in 2003 included Arizona Real Income Growth Per Capita, Population Growth,
Wage & Salary Employment Growth and Fleet Fuel Efficiency.
In 2005, HDR\HLB developed a new forecasting model to incorporate additional economic
data that would enhance the model’s forecasting accuracy. The Arizona Real Gross State
Product independent variable was added to the model to incorporate the impact of the
Arizona economy on the commercial registration activities. The independent variables
contained in the updated model now include:
September 2007

1

•
•
•
•
•

Arizona real income growth per capita
Arizona population growth
Arizona wage & salary employment growth
Arizona real gross state product
Arizona fleet fuel efficiency
Risk Analysis Panel

The Risk Analysis Process relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economic
and financial participants to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In
August 2007, a panel of twelve economic and finance experts representing public, private,
and academic sectors submitted their individual estimates of the model’s independent
variables and comments on the future economic outlook.
The information gathered from the panelists was input into the model to produce a series of
forecasts with associated probabilities of occurrence. The panelists’ inputs are reflected in
the attached tables at the back of this report.
Model Results
This year’s panel inputs produced a mean forecast of $18,605.1 million for the period FY
2008-2017 with a compound growth rate of 5.4 percent.
The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2008-2017 totals $18,159.5 million with a
compound growth rate of 5.1 percent. The Official Forecast incorporates the 50 percent
confidence interval for each year of the forecast. The FY 2008 forecast of $1,440.2 million
was developed in July 2007 by ADOT staff using time-series techniques, historical and
projected growth rates from the model, and recent legislative changes.

FY 2008 Official Forecast
(Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal
Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total
Ave. CGR

September 2007

Mean
Forecast
$1,450.1
$1,532.3
$1,615.6
$1,702.8
$1,794.2
$1,890.1
$1,990.8
$2,096.4
$2,207.6
$2,325.1
$18,605.1
5.4%

Official
Forecast
$1,440.2
$1,509.8
$1,582.5
$1,663.7
$1,748.0
$1,839.5
$1,937.0
$2,038.3
$2,144.0
$2,256.5
$18,159.5
5.1%

Confidence
Level
N/A
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%

2

For comparison purposes, the November 2006 Official Forecast and the September 2007
Official Forecast are shown below:

FY 2008 Comparative Forecast
(Dollars in Millions)

Fiscal
Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total
Ave. CGR

Nov. 06
Official
Forecast
$1,458.1
$1,533.2
$1,608.7
$1,687.5
$1,773.9
$1,865.8
$1,954.5
$2,048.9
$2,158.3
$2,271.0
$18,359.9
5.0%

Sep. 07
Official
Forecast
$1,440.2
$1,509.8
$1,582.5
$1,663.7
$1,748.0
$1,839.5
$1,937.0
$2,038.3
$2,144.0
$2,256.5
$18,159.5
5.1%

Difference
($17.9)
($23.3)
($26.2)
($23.9)
($25.8)
($26.3)
($17.5)
($10.6)
($14.3)
($14.5)
($200.4)

Summary
The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2008-2017 totals $18,159.5 million, a decrease
of $200.4 million from the November 2006 Official Forecast. The Risk Analysis Process
panel members forecasted lower growth in Arizona Real Per Capita Personal Income and
Arizona Wage and Salary Employment throughout the forecast period compared to their
September 2006 inputs. The RAP panel members became concerned with the housing and
credit markets in the short term. However, the panel does expect to see continued economic
growth in Arizona, but in the short term, at a somewhat slower pace.
Supplementary Information
The remaining pages of this report present supplementary information on the detailed results
of the Risk Analysis Process, the Department’s model and the values of the independent
variables forecast by the expert panel. While the Official Forecast period is FY 2008-2017,
panel inputs were requested for FY 2008-2012, 2016, 2021 and 2026. Data displayed for
other than the requested years, has been extrapolated.

September 2007

3

September 2007

HURF OFFICIAL REVENUE FORECAST
With Category Detail and Confidence Interval By Fiscal Year
(Current Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal Year
Percentile

2007
Actual

2008
50%

2009
50%

2010
50%

2011
50%

2012
50%

2013
50%

2014
50%

2015
50%

2016
50%

2017
50%

Gasoline Tax

$497.7

$505.2

$526.6

$541.8

$557.5

$573.7

$591.3

$608.0

$625.3

$643.2

$660.4

Use Fuel Tax

210.3

212.4

226.2

234.1

242.0

249.6

256.8

264.8

273.2

281.6

290.5

45.2

48.1

47.7

50.4

53.2

56.5

59.9

63.6

67.3

71.2

75.4

Vehicle License Tax

393.5

422.2

460.2

496.6

540.6

585.9

636.9

693.2

752.2

814.6

882.5

Registration

177.8

189.4

184.9

192.3

199.9

208.4

217.0

226.3

235.6

245.1

255.4

58.0

62.9

64.2

67.3

70.5

73.9

77.6

81.1

84.7

88.3

92.3

Motor Carrier Fee

Other

Total

$1,382.5 $1,440.2 $1,509.8 $1,582.5 $1,663.7 $1,748.0 $1,839.5 $1,937.0 $2,038.3 $2,144.0 $2,256.5

4

September 2007

HURF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS
(Current Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal Year

Mean

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2008

$1,450.1

$1,669.8

$1,585.6

$1,530.9

$1,485.1

$1,440.2

$1,398.1

$1,354.6

$1,301.6

$1,238.5

2009

1,532.3

1,864.9

1,733.1

1,646.4

1,576.6

1,509.8

1,448.1

1,385.2

1,311.2

1,225.7

2010

1,615.6

2,019.3

1,855.2

1,748.3

1,666.8

1,582.5

1,513.1

1,438.7

1,350.1

1,249.3

2011

1,702.8

2,153.8

1,971.4

1,849.4

1,756.8

1,663.7

1,587.1

1,503.2

1,406.3

1,293.8

2012

1,794.2

2,290.3

2,087.6

1,950.3

1,851.0

1,748.0

1,668.7

1,577.3

1,467.4

1,345.0

2013

1,890.1

2,427.0

2,204.5

2,060.0

1,952.2

1,839.5

1,752.4

592.5

1,534.8

1,403.1

2014

1,990.8

2,574.0

2,326.6

2,174.2

2,055.7

1,937.0

1,840.9

1,736.8

1,608.3

1,464.1

2015

2,096.4

2,718.0

2,465.0

2,291.4

2,163.6

2,038.3

1,935.7

1,826.0

1,684.9

1,533.4

2016

2,207.6

2,880.8

2,598.7

2,419.7

2,278.2

2,144.0

2,034.4

1,915.0

1,765.3

1,609.0

2017

2,325.1

3,038.2

2,747.7

2,550.5

2,398.2

2,256.5

2,139.2

2,002.3

1,854.7

1,680.8

5

September 2007

HURF OFFICIAL REVENUE FORECAST DISTRIBUTION
(Current Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal Year
HURF
$1,440.2
2008
1,509.8
2009
1,582.5
2010
1,663.7
2011
1,748.0
2012
1,839.5
2013
1,937.0
2014
2,038.3
2015
2,144.0
2016
2,256.5
2017
$18,159.5
Total

DPS/
ESP /1
$18.5
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0
$117.5

DPS Parity
Net HURF Comp. Fund /2
$1,421.7
($3.2)
1,498.8
(3.5)
1,571.5
(3.8)
1,652.7
(4.1)
1,737.0
(4.5)
1,828.5
(4.9)
1,926.0
(5.3)
2,027.3
(5.7)
2,133.0
(6.2)
2,245.5
(6.7)
$18,042.0
($47.9)

ADOT
50.5% /3
$714.8
753.4
789.8
830.5
872.7
918.5
967.4
1,018.0
1,070.9
1,127.3
$9,063.3

Cities/Towns Cities +300K
27.5%
3%
$391.0
$42.7
412.2
45.0
432.2
47.1
454.5
49.6
477.7
52.1
502.8
54.9
529.7
57.8
557.5
60.8
586.6
64.0
617.5
67.4
$4,961.6
$541.3

Counties
19%
$270.1
284.8
298.6
314.0
330.0
347.4
365.9
385.2
405.3
426.7
$3,428.0

6

NOTES:
FY 2008 HURF estimate based on July 2007 Forecast.
FY 2009-2017 HURF estimate based on September 2007 Official Forecast.
/1. The DPS/ESP includes $1 million for Economic Strength Project (ESP) each year.
The DPS transfers are assumed at $10 million each year, but are subject to change.
FY 2008 includes a $150,000 appropriation to ADOA for a statewide highway hazards assessment
study and $617,000 appropriation (includes ERE) to MVD for the registration compliance program and third party program
per Laws 2007, Chapter 255 (HB 2781).
FY 2008 also includes a $6.7 million appropriation to ADOT/MVD for two new customer service centers
and one multipurpose facility per Laws 2007, Chapter 257 (HB 2783).
/2. Per Laws 2005, Chapter 306 (SB 1119), 1.51 percent of the state highway fund share of HURF VLT is
transferred to the DPS Parity Compensation Fund.
/3 Net of the DPS Parity Compensation Fund.

OFFICIAL FORECAST RESULTS

Millions of Current Dollars

(Current Dollars in Millions)

Fiscal

Official

Mean

80% Conf.

20% Conf.

Year

Forecast

Forecast

Interval

Interval

2008

$1,440.2

$1,450.1

$1,301.6

$1,585.6

2009

1,509.8

1,532.3

1,311.2

1,733.1

2010

1,582.5

1,615.6

1,350.1

1,855.2

2011

1,663.7

1,702.8

1,406.3

1,971.4

2012

1,748.0

1,794.2

1,467.4

2,087.6

2013

1,839.5

1,890.1

1,534.8

2,204.5

2014

1,937.0

1,990.8

1,608.3

2,326.6

2015

2,038.3

2,096.4

1,684.9

2,465.0

2016

2,144.0

2,207.6

1,765.3

2,598.7

2017

2,256.5

2,325.1

1,854.7

2,747.7

Total

$18,159.5

$18,605.1

$15,284.6

$21,575.5

$2,800
$2,700
$2,600
$2,500
$2,400
$2,300
$2,200
$2,100
$2,000
$1,900
$1,800
$1,700
$1,600
$1,500
$1,400
$1,300
$1,200
$1,100
$1,000
$900
2008

2009

2010

Official

September 2007

2011

2012

Mean

2013

2014

80% Conf.

2015

2016

2017

20% Conf.

7

ARIZONA REAL INCOME PER CAPITA
5.0%
4.5%

Growth Rate

4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Fiscal Year
Median

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH
6.0%
5.0%

Growth Rate

4.0%

3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Fiscal Year
Median

September 2007

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

8

ARIZONA WAGE & SALARY EMPLOYMENT
8.0%
7.0%

5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Fiscal Year
Median

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

ARIZONA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
Growth Rate

Growth Rate

6.0%

5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Fiscal Year
Median

September 2007

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

9

PANELIST MEAN DATA VALUES

Income
Growth
FY 2008
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2009
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2010
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2011
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2012
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2016
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2021
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2026
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

Population Wage & Salary
Growth
Employ. Growth

AZ GDP
Growth

2.29
0.52
1.46

3.44
2.50
2.99

4.45
1.24
3.04

5.59
3.04
4.33

2.18
0.23
1.17

3.43
2.37
2.88

4.66
0.96
2.93

5.72
3.00
4.34

2.18
0.25
1.12

3.43
2.25
2.83

4.67
0.82
2.83

5.88
2.93
4.26

2.22
0.40
1.26

3.41
2.19
2.81

5.01
0.98
3.04

5.86
2.94
4.29

2.33
0.52
1.36

3.37
2.08
2.76

4.90
0.90
3.01

5.93
2.94
4.32

2.30
0.47
1.33

3.21
1.79
2.53

4.95
0.87
2.87

5.88
2.73
4.14

2.31
0.50
1.35

3.08
1.57
2.34

4.93
0.81
2.76

5.92
2.51
3.93

2.35
0.42
1.35

3.00
1.45
2.22

4.95
0.71
2.66

6.29
2.15
3.90

All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.

September 2007

10

ARIZONA REAL PER CAPITA INCOME GROWTH

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2016 2021
Panelist 1
Upper 10% 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80
Lower 10% 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Median 1.40 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20
Panelist 2
Upper 10% 1.80 1.50 1.50 1.30 1.80 2.20 2.02
Lower 10% -0.51 -0.90 0.00 0.34 0.34 0.11 0.38
Median 1.20 1.00 0.90 0.90 1.10 1.00 1.00
Panelist 3
Upper 10% 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.80 2.50
Lower 10% 0.30 0.54 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.80
Median 1.00 1.50 1.80 2.00 1.90 1.80 1.70
Panelist 4
Upper 10% 2.96 2.80 2.90 3.00 2.80 2.50 3.00
Lower 10% 0.90 0.70 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.30 0.30
Median 2.00 1.90 1.90 1.80 1.80 1.50 1.60
Panelist 5
Upper 10% 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96
Lower 10% 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Median 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10
Panelist 6
Upper 10% 2.60 2.50 2.40
Lower 10% 0.80 0.70 0.60
Median 1.70 1.60 1.50
Panelist 7
Upper 10% 2.00 1.90 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.50 1.80
Lower 10% 1.60 1.50 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.10 1.40
Median 1.80 1.70 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.30 1.60
Panelist 8
Upper 10% 1.90 2.40 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.60
Lower 10% 0.20 0.50 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.60 0.50
Median 1.50 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.60
Panelist 9
Upper 10% 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.50 1.50 1.50
Lower 10% -0.50 -2.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 0.50 0.50
Median 1.00 -1.70 -1.00 -0.50 0.10 0.60 0.50
Panelist 10
Upper 10% 2.50 2.00 1.50 2.50 3.00 3.00 3.00
Lower 10% 1.00 0.00 -0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00
Median 1.40 0.90 0.00 1.40 1.90 1.90 1.90
Panelist 11
Upper 10% 2.10 2.00 1.90 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80
Lower 10% 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.20 0.10 0.10 0.10
Median 1.70 1.60 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40
Panelist 12
Upper 10% 2.90 2.80 2.66 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.40
Lower 10% 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 0.00
Median 1.70 1.60 1.50 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.20
All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.

September 2007

2026
1.80
0.00
1.20
2.30
0.06
1.00
2.50
0.80
1.70
3.20
0.20
1.60
2.96
0.50
1.10

1.90
1.50
1.70
2.50
0.00
1.50
1.50
0.50
0.50
3.00
1.00
1.90
1.80
0.10
1.40
2.40
0.00
1.20

11

ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2016 2021
Panelist 1
4.00 3.80 3.80 3.80 3.80 3.80 3.50
Upper 10%
2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00
Lower 10%
3.00 3.10 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
Median
Panelist 2
3.28 3.16 3.15 3.15 3.00 2.95 3.00
Upper 10%
2.72 2.56 2.40 2.30 2.00 1.40 1.00
Lower 10%
3.00 2.90 2.86 2.75 2.66 2.20 1.90
Median
Panelist 3
3.20 3.30 3.40 3.30 3.30 3.00 2.90
Upper 10%
2.00 2.00 2.20 2.20 2.00 2.00 2.00
Lower 10%
2.80 2.80 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.80 2.75
Median
Panelist 4
3.40 3.50 3.60 3.60 3.60 3.20 3.00
Upper 10%
2.70 2.50 2.50 2.40 2.30 1.80 1.50
Lower 10%
3.10 3.00 3.10 3.00 2.90 2.50 2.20
Median
Panelist 5
3.30 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
Upper 10%
2.20 1.95 1.70 1.45 1.20 0.95 0.70
Lower 10%
3.00 2.80 2.75 2.70 2.65 3.60 2.55
Median
Panelist 6
3.40 3.50 3.60 3.50 3.30 3.30 3.20
Upper 10%
2.50 2.20 2.10 2.10 2.00 1.80 1.70
Lower 10%
2.90 2.80 2.70 2.70 2.60 2.40 2.20
Median
Panelist 7
3.20 3.10 3.00 2.90 2.80 2.40 2.10
Upper 10%
2.80 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.00 1.70
Lower 10%
3.00 2.90 2.80 2.70 2.60 2.20 1.90
Median
Panelist 8
3.50 3.50 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.50 3.20
Upper 10%
2.70 2.80 2.70 2.50 2.50 2.00 1.50
Lower 10%
3.10 3.10 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.00 2.50
Median
Panelist 9
3.50 3.50 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
Upper 10%
2.50 2.50 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90
Lower 10%
2.90 2.70 2.40 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20
Median
Panelist 10
3.67 3.47 3.37 3.27 3.17 2.95 2.76
Upper 10%
2.50 2.00 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.45 1.04
Lower 10%
3.20 2.70 2.50 2.70 2.50 2.00 1.70
Median
Panelist 11
3.10 3.20 3.20 3.30 3.50 3.50 3.50
Upper 10%
2.60 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.40 2.40 2.40
Lower 10%
2.90 2.80 2.80 2.90 3.00 3.00 3.00
Median
Panelist 12
3.69 3.59 3.60 3.60 3.50 3.20 3.00
Upper 10%
2.31 2.31 2.20 2.20 2.10 1.80 1.40
Lower 10%
3.00 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.80 2.50 2.20
Median
All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.

September 2007

2026
3.50
2.00
3.00
3.00
1.00
1.60
2.90
2.00
2.75
2.80
1.30
2.00
3.50
0.45
2.50
3.20
1.30
2.10
1.80
1.40
1.60
3.20
1.50
2.50
3.25
1.90
2.20
2.63
1.00
1.50
3.50
2.40
3.00
2.70
1.10
1.90

12

ARIZONA WAGE & SALARY EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2016 2021 2026
Panelist 1
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 2
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 3
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 4
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 5
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 6
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 7
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 8
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 9
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 10
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 11
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 12
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

5.70 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50
1.50 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.00 1.00 1.00
3.60 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
4.10 3.80 3.80 4.10 4.20 4.60 4.60 4.60
1.00 0.70 0.70 1.50 1.50 1.60 1.60 1.50
3.40 3.00 3.00 2.90 2.90 2.70 2.50 2.50
3.00 4.00 4.00 4.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
0.50 1.00 1.00 1.50 1.50 1.25 1.25 1.25
2.40 2.90 2.90 3.30 2.80 2.75 2.50 2.50
4.80 5.20 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.60 5.40 5.20
1.00 0.80 0.60 0.50 0.50 0.30 0.00 0.00
3.00 3.00 3.20 3.10 3.00 2.90 2.70 2.50
5.00 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50
0.62 0.42 0.22 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00
3.00 2.90 2.80 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.30
4.90 5.00 5.10 5.30 5.50 5.80 6.00 7.00
2.50 2.30 1.80 1.40 1.20 0.80 0.60 0.00
3.80 3.50 3.30 3.20 3.10 2.90 2.80 2.70
4.00 4.00 4.00 3.90 3.90 3.70 3.50 3.50
2.00 2.00 2.00 1.90 1.90 1.70 1.50 1.50
3.00 3.00 3.00 2.90 2.90 2.70 2.50 2.50
3.00 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50
0.50 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50
2.10 3.40 3.50 3.50 3.30 2.50 2.50 2.50
3.00 3.25 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 3.50
-0.50 -1.00 -0.80 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.00
2.10 1.00 1.20 2.00 2.70 3.00 3.00 2.50
4.50 3.00 2.50
4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
2.50 0.50 0.00
2.00 2.00 2.00
3.30 2.70 1.20 3.00 2.90 2.84 2.70 2.60
5.40 5.40 5.40 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.60
2.80 2.40 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.80 1.80 1.80
3.60 3.30 3.40 3.50 3.50 3.30 3.30 3.30
6.00 5.80 5.70 5.70 5.60 5.60 5.50 5.50
0.40 0.20 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
3.20 3.00 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.80 2.70 2.50

All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.

September 2007

13

ARIZONA GROSS STATE PRODUCT GROWTH

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2016 2021
Panelist 1
6.00 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.80
Upper 10%
3.20 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
Lower 10%
4.80 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.40 4.40 4.40
Median
Panelist 2
6.20 6.80 7.20 6.90 6.90 6.20 6.20
Upper 10%
3.76 3.93 3.96 6.64 3.50 3.10 2.90
Lower 10%
4.60 5.00 5.10 4.90 4.60 4.40 4.30
Median
Panelist 3
5.00
6.54 6.34 6.04 5.90 5.85
Upper 10%
2.50 3.00 3.50 3.46 3.16 2.50 2.50
Lower 10%
3.50 4.50 4.00 5.00 4.80 4.50 4.30
Median
Panelist 4
5.60 6.00 6.54 6.50 6.30 6.00 6.00
Upper 10%
3.50 3.50 3.50 3.46 3.30 3.00 2.50
Lower 10%
4.80 5.20 5.00 5.00 4.80 4.50 4.40
Median
Panelist 5
7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00
Upper 10%
2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50
Lower 10%
4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.00
Median
Panelist 6
5.80 5.90 6.00 6.00 6.20 7.00 8.00
Upper 10%
3.00 2.80 2.60 2.40 2.20 2.00 1.80
Lower 10%
4.60 4.80 4.70 4.60 4.50 4.30 4.20
Median
Panelist 7
5.50 6.00 6.10 5.90 5.60 5.40 5.30
Upper 10%
3.50 4.00 4.10 3.90 3.60 3.40 3.30
Lower 10%
4.50 5.00 5.10 4.90 4.60 4.40 4.30
Median
Panelist 8
6.00 6.50 6.54 6.50 6.30 6.50 6.50
Upper 10%
3.00 3.50 3.50 3.46 3.16 3.00 2.75
Lower 10%
4.60 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.80 4.60 4.40
Median
Panelist 9
3.50 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 3.75
Upper 10%
2.00 1.00 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.50
Lower 10%
2.50 1.90 1.60 2.00 2.50 2.60 1.90
Median
Panelist 10
5.50 4.50 4.00 4.50 6.04 5.50 5.50
Upper 10%
3.00 2.50 1.50 2.00 3.50 3.00 2.50
Lower 10%
4.50 3.00 2.50 3.50 5.00 4.50 4.00
Median
Panelist 11
5.20 5.00 5.00 5.20 5.40 5.60 5.60
Upper 10%
3.50 3.20 3.00 3.00 2.80 2.80 2.80
Lower 10%
4.60 4.40 4.20 4.00 4.20 4.20 4.20
Median
Panelist 12
5.80 5.90 5.80 5.70 5.60 5.60 5.50
Upper 10%
3.00 3.10 3.00 2.90 2.60 2.40 2.10
Lower 10%
4.40 4.50 4.40 4.30 4.10 4.00 3.80
Median
All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.

September 2007

2026
5.80
3.00
4.40
6.10
2.80
4.40
6.89
2.50
4.40
6.00
1.50
4.40
7.00
2.50
2.75
9.00
1.20
4.10
5.40
3.40
4.40
6.50
1.60
4.40
3.50
1.50
1.50
5.50
2.50
4.00
5.60
2.80
4.20
7.60
1.00
3.80

14

HISTORICAL DATA
ARIZONA REAL PER CAPITA INCOME GROWTH
Using Phoenix CPI to Measure Inflation
(Annual Percent Change)

HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

3.4%
1.7%
-4.5%
-3.7%
1.4%
3.7%
2.3%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

-0.7%
-1.6%
-3.1%
-0.7%
4.6%
3.8%
1.5%
1.7%
1.6%
0.5%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

-0.2%
-2.5%
-1.9%
-0.9%
0.1%
0.4%
0.0%
-0.1%
1.3%
1.1%

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 *
2008
2009

1.8%
1.9%
-0.3%
-0.2%
1.3%
1.8%
1.3%
1.7%

* Estimate

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED
0.06
0.06
10.0%
0.1
0.06

Percent
PercentChange
Change
Change
Percent

0.08
8.0%
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.06
6.0%
0.04
4.0%
0.02
0.02
0.02
2.0%
0.0%
00
-0.02
-2.0%
-0.02
-0.02
-4.0%
-0.04
-0.06
-6.0%
-0.04
-0.04
-0.08
-8.0%
-0.06
-10.0%
-0.1
-0.06
73
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04 01
05 02
06
7374
74
74
75
75
75
76
76
76
77
77
77
78
78
78
7979
79
8080
80
81
82
82
82
8382
83
83
8483
84
85
84
86
85
87
86
88
87
88
89
88
90
8988
89
91
9090
92
9191
93
92 92
94
93
95
94
96
94
95
97
95
96
98
96
97
99
97
98
00
98
99
01
99
00
02
00
01
0399
01
02
0400
02
03
05
03
04
06
07
05
04
73
7474
7575
7676
77
78
79
8081
81
84
85
86
87
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
73
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
8485
8586
8687
87
88
89
90
91
9293
9395
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
FiscalYear
Year
Fiscal

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

September 2007

Historical
Min.
Max.
Mean
-0.2%
1.8%
1.2%
-0.3%
1.9%
1.2%
-4.5%
4.6%
0.5%

Std.
80% Range
Dev.
Lower Upper
0.8%
0.4%
1.8%
0.8% -0.2%
1.8%
2.1% -2.3%
3.0%

15

HISTORICAL DATA
ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH
(Annual Percent Change)

HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

4.5%
3.4%
2.3%
1.8%
1.9%
2.0%
2.2%
3.3%

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

3.3%
5.6%
5.9%
5.8%
4.7%
2.8%
2.7%
3.4%
3.7%
4.8%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

3.8%
2.6%
2.8%
2.7%
3.3%
3.8%
3.9%
3.9%
2.9%
2.5%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

1.7%
2.8%
3.4%
3.8%
4.4%
4.4%
3.5%
3.3%
3.1%
2.9%

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

2.8%
2.6%
2.7%
2.5%
2.9%
3.6%
3.6%
3.0%

BEA FY 1962-2006. FY 2007 and FY 2008 based on Arizona Blue Chip estimate, June 2007.
FY 2009-2026 based on DES Arizona Population Projections 2006-2055 grow th rates dated March 31, 2006.

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED

7.0%
0.07
Percent
PercentChange
Change

6.0%
0.06
0.05
5.0%
0.05
0.04
4.0%
0.04
0.03
3.0%
0.03
0.02
2.0%
0.02
0.01
1.0%
0.01
0
0.0%
0

62

63
62

64

65
65
64

66

67
67
66

68

69
68
69

70 73
72 7474
76 7879
78 81
80 8283
82 85
84 86 87
8689
88 91 90
9294 94
96
72
73 75
75 77
76
77 79
8081 83
84 85 87
88 89 90
9193
92 9395
9597
96 97
99
98
Fiscal
Fiscal Year
Year

71
70
71

98
99
00
01

00
01
03
02

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

September 2007

Historical
Min.
Max.
2.5%
3.6%
2.5%
3.6%
1.7%
5.9%

Mean
3.1%
3.0%
3.3%

Std.
Dev.
0.5%
0.4%
1.0%

80% Range
Lower Upper
2.7%
3.6%
2.6%
3.6%
2.2%
4.6%

16

02
03
04
05

04

06
07
05

HISTORICAL DATA
ARIZONA WAGE & SALARY EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
(Annual Percent Change)

HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

6.0%
8.8%
10.8%
7.3%
1.0%
0.9%
5.4%
8.7%
10.0%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

6.3%
3.0%
0.8%
1.8%
7.2%
8.9%
6.3%
4.1%
3.0%
2.4%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

2.2%
1.2%
1.1%
3.1%
5.6%
6.4%
5.7%
5.1%
4.7%
4.4%

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 *
2008
2009

4.0%
2.3%
0.5%
0.7%
2.5%
4.5%
5.4%
4.4%

* Estimate

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED

Percent
Percent
Percent
PercentChange
Change
Change
Change

0.16
0.12
0.12
16.0%
0.14
14.0%
0.10.1
0.12
12.0%
0.1
0.08
10.0%
0.08
0.08
8.0%
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
6.0%
0.04
0.04
4.0%
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.02
0.02
2.0%
0
0.02
0
0.0%
0.02
0.02
-0.02
-2.0%
-0.02
0
-0.04
0
-4.0%
-0.04
0
7374
7475
7576767777
78
79
80
818283
82
83
84
85
868887
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
959896
97
98
99
00
01
02
73
7473
75
79
80
81
82
84
86
87
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
9900
0001
01
02
03
04
05
73
78
79
8080
8181
83
84
85
86
90
9192
92
93
94
95
97
98
99
00
71
7474
767678
77
83
84
85
86
8787
88
89
909091
9191
92
93
94
95
97
98
02
03
04
05
06
717274
72
73
77 78
78 79
79
80
81
8283
83
8485
86
87
88
89
90
92
93
94
95
9696
97
9896
9999
00
01
02
03
0401
0502
06 03
07
73
75
76757577
78
79
80
81
8282
84
85
86
87
8888
8989
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
FiscalYear
Year
Fiscal
Fiscal
Year

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

September 2007

Historical
Min.
Max.
Mean
0.7%
5.4%
3.5%
0.5%
5.4%
3.3%
0.5% 10.8%
4.5%

Std.
80% Range
Dev.
Lower Upper
1.9%
1.4%
5.0%
1.7%
0.7%
4.8%
2.8%
0.9%
8.7%

17

HISTORICAL DATA
ARIZONA REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH
Using Phoenix CPI to Measure Inflation
(Annual Percent Change)

HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

7.2%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

0.9%
-2.2%
-2.6%
1.9%
10.0%
8.4%
5.9%
5.6%
3.9%
1.5%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

-0.5%
-0.3%
3.8%
5.2%
5.7%
6.2%
4.2%
5.6%
5.5%
4.0%

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 *
2008
2009

3.8%
3.0%
2.3%
3.1%
3.8%
4.6%
5.6%
4.9%

* Estimate

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED
0.16
16.0%
0.14
14.0%

Percent
PercentChange
Change

0.12
12.0%
0.1
10.0%
8.0%
0.08
6.0%
0.06
0.04
4.0%
2.0%
0.02
0.0%
0
-2.0%
-0.02
-4.0%
-0.04
838484
848585
858686
86
01
02
03
04
05 07
06
7979808081
818182
828283
83
87 8788 88
89 89
90 90
90
91 91
91
92 92
93
92 93
94
93 94
95
94 95
96
9596
97
9697
989798
999899
009900
01 00
02 01
03 02
04 03
05 04
06
05
Fiscal Year

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

September 2007

Historical
Min.
Max.
Mean
3.1%
5.6%
4.4%
2.3%
5.6%
4.1%
-2.6% 10.0%
3.8%

Std.
80% Range
Dev.
Lower Upper
1.0%
3.4%
5.3%
1.1%
2.9%
5.5%
2.9% -0.4%
6.4%

18