Arizona Department of Transportation

ARIZONA HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND
Forecasting Process & Results
FY 2007-2016

Financial Management Services
November 2006

ARIZONA HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND
OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE
RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES
Introduction
This document presents the forecast of expected values for the Arizona Highway User Revenue
Fund for the period FY 2007-2016, as prepared by the Arizona Department of Transportation.
Background
The State of Arizona taxes motor fuels and collects a variety of fees relating to the registration and
operation of motor vehicles in the state. These collections include gasoline and use fuel taxes,
motor carrier fees, vehicle license taxes, motor vehicle registration fees, and other miscellaneous
fees. These revenues are deposited in the Arizona Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) and are
then distributed to the cities, towns and counties of the State and to the State Highway Fund, which
is administered by the Department. These taxes and fees represent the primary source of revenues
available to the state for highway construction, improvements and other related expenses.
Since 1986, the Department has estimated Highway Revenues for the State using a comprehensive
regression-based econometric model. In 1989, the model was updated by Dr. Alberta Charney of
the University of Arizona. The model relied on the estimates of certain “independent variables” to
predict future tax revenues. The model’s revenue forecast was highly dependent on estimates of
the independent variables. Any variability between estimated and actual values could lead to
variances in the tax forecast. In order to deal with this variability, the Department introduced the
Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies upon probability analysis and the
independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. This results in a
series of forecasts with specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess”
estimate.
In 1997, Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB), working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of
Arizona State University, developed a new forecasting model to incorporate certain economic data
generated over the past ten years and evaluate the inclusion of independent variables absent from
the 1989 model, to enhance the model’s forecasting accuracy. HLB also eliminated independent
variables that were either not significant to the model or were not readily available. The new model
also took into consideration 1997 legislation which eliminated the weight distance tax on motor
carriers, increased weight and use fees for use class vehicles, and changed the point of taxation on
fuel. In September 2000 and 2003, HLB reviewed the model and updated the equations. The
independent variables contained in the model in 2003 included Arizona Real Income Growth Per
Capita, Population Growth, Wage & Salary Employment Growth and Fleet Fuel Efficiency.
In 2005, HDR\HLB developed a new forecasting model to incorporate additional economic data
that would enhance the model’s forecasting accuracy. The Arizona Real Gross State Product
independent variable was added to the model to incorporate the impact of the Arizona economy on
the commercial registration activities. The independent variables contained in the updated model
now include:
November 2006

1

•
•
•
•
•

Arizona real income growth per capita
Arizona population growth
Arizona wage & salary employment growth
Arizona real gross state product
Arizona fleet fuel efficiency
Risk Analysis Panel

The Risk Analysis Process relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economic and
financial participants to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In September 2006,
a panel of thirteen economic and finance experts representing public, private, and academic sectors
submitted their individual estimates of the model’s independent variables and comments on the
future economic outlook.
The information gathered from the panelists was input into the model to produce a series of
forecasts with associated probabilities of occurrence. The panelists’ inputs are reflected in the
attached tables at the back of this report.
Model Results
This year’s panel inputs produced a mean forecast of $17,904.7 million for the period FY 20072016 with a compound growth rate of 5.2 percent.
The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2007-2016 totals $17,487.7 million with a compound
growth rate of 4.9 percent. The Official Forecast incorporates the 50 percent confidence interval
for each year of the forecast. The FY 2007 forecast of $1,398.8 million was developed in July
2006 by ADOT staff using time-series techniques, historical and projected growth rates from the
model, and recent legislative changes.
FY 2007 Official Forecast
(Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal
Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Total
Avg. CGR

Mean
Forecast
$1,401.7
$1,484.2
$1,566.1
$1,648.1
$1,732.0
$1,819.9
$1,912.1
$2,009.1
$2,111.6
$2,219.9
$17,904.7
5.2%

Official
Forecast
$1,398.8
$1,458.1
$1,533.2
$1,608.7
$1,687.5
$1,773.9
$1,865.8
$1,954.5
$2,048.9
$2,158.3
$17,487.7
4.9%

Confidence
Level
N/A
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%

For comparison purposes, the November 2005 Official Forecast and the November 2006 Official
Forecast are shown below:
November 2006

2

FY 2007 Comparative Forecast
(Dollars in Millions)

Fiscal
Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Total
Avg. CGR

Nov. 05
Official
Forecast
$1,375.1
$1,443.3
$1,513.3
$1,584.8
$1,660.6
$1,742.0
$1,827.9
$1,920.5
$2,021.7
$2,116.6
$17,205.8
4.9%

Nov. 06
Official
Forecast
$1,398.8
$1,458.1
$1,533.2
$1,608.7
$1,687.5
$1,773.9
$1,865.8
$1,954.5
$2,048.9
$2,158.3
$17,487.7
4.9%

Difference
$23.7
$14.8
$19.9
$23.8
$27.0
$31.9
$37.9
$34.0
$27.2
$41.8
$281.9

Summary
The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2007-2016 totals $17,487.7 million, an increase of
$281.9 million over the November 2005 Official Forecast. The Risk Analysis Process panel
members forecasted higher growth in Arizona Real Per Capita Personal Income and Arizona Gross
State Product for the FY 2007-2016 time period compared to their September 2005 inputs. The
panel inputs from September 2005 may have been impacted by timing since the RAP panel session
was held three weeks after hurricane Katrina, which resulted in significantly higher fuel prices and
worries of higher inflation. Overall, the panel members anticipate continued strength in the Arizona
economy even with the current housing market slowdown.
Supplementary Information
The remaining pages of this report present supplementary information on the detailed results of the
Risk Analysis Process, the Department’s model and the values of the independent variables
forecast by the expert panel. While the Official Forecast period is FY 2007-2016, panel inputs
were requested for FY 2007-2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026. Data displayed for other than the
requested years, has been extrapolated.

November 2006

3

November 2006

HURF OFFICIAL REVENUE FORECAST
With Category Detail and Confidence Interval By Fiscal Year
(Current Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal Year
Percentile

2006
Actual

2007
50%

2008
50%

2009
50%

2010
50%

2011
50%

2012
50%

2013
50%

2014
50%

2015
50%

2016
50%

Gasoline Tax

$489.1

$501.3

$525.5

$542.6

$560.7

$578.3

$596.6

$614.7

$632.8

$651.0

$670.6

Use Fuel Tax

213.5

230.6

232.7

241.5

250.5

259.9

269.6

279.1

288.2

297.6

308.0

40.5

43.1

42.3

44.3

46.2

48.2

50.4

52.6

54.8

57.1

59.8

Vehicle License Tax

373.9

399.7

424.4

462.1

499.4

539.7

586.2

638.1

687.5

741.8

807.4

Registration

158.8

165.2

170.9

177.2

183.2

189.5

195.9

202.5

208.9

215.4

222.7

55.9

58.9

62.3

65.5

68.7

71.9

75.2

78.8

82.3

86.0

89.8

Motor Carrier Fee

Other

Total

$1,331.6 $1,398.8 $1,458.1 $1,533.2 $1,608.7 $1,687.5 $1,773.9 $1,865.8 $1,954.5 $2,048.9 $2,158.3

4

November 2006

HURF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS
(Current Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal Year

Mean

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2007

$1,401.7

$1,589.3

$1,532.9

$1,484.3

$1,445.8

$1,389.4

$1,334.1

$1,306.6

$1,272.2

$1,226.0

2008

1,484.2

1,773.9

1,685.0

1,613.4

1,546.1

1,458.1

1,377.9

1,335.8

1,279.1

1,207.7

2009

1,566.1

1,918.5

1,803.0

1,717.6

1,634.3

1,533.2

1,440.9

1,387.4

1,321.0

1,238.8

2010

1,648.1

2,043.1

1,914.2

1,816.3

1,719.2

1,608.7

1,509.9

1,449.1

1,375.4

1,285.2

2011

1,732.0

2,160.1

2,021.5

1,914.4

1,805.6

1,687.5

1,581.3

1,511.5

1,436.3

1,338.7

2012

1,819.9

2,286.0

2,129.3

2,014.8

1,901.6

1,773.9

1,660.9

592.5

1,500.3

1,396.1

2013

1,912.1

2,412.9

2,243.6

2,119.7

1,997.9

1,865.8

1,740.4

1,655.5

1,569.8

1,458.4

2014

2,009.1

2,545.6

2,360.5

2,231.6

2,094.6

1,954.5

1,826.7

1,734.4

1,642.0

1,524.3

2015

2,111.6

2,686.8

2,486.0

2,344.3

2,204.6

2,048.9

1,916.5

1,819.4

1,720.0

1,598.3

2016

2,219.9

2,832.9

2,620.1

2,472.4

2,316.6

2,158.3

2,016.7

1,904.1

1,801.2

1,670.1

5

OFFICIAL FORECAST RESULTS

Millions of Current Dollars

(Current Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal

Official

Mean

80% Conf.

20% Conf.

Year

Forecast

Forecast

Interval

Interval

2007

$1,398.8

$1,401.7

$1,272.2

$1,532.9

2008

1,458.1

1,484.2

1,279.1

1,685.0

2009

1,533.2

1,566.1

1,321.0

1,803.0

2010

1,608.7

1,648.1

1,375.4

1,914.2

2011

1,687.5

1,732.0

1,436.3

2,021.5

2012

1,773.9

1,819.9

1,500.3

2,129.3

2013

1,865.8

1,912.1

1,569.8

2,243.6

2014

1,954.5

2,009.1

1,642.0

2,360.5

2015

2,048.9

2,111.6

1,720.0

2,486.0

2016

2,158.3

2,219.9

1,801.2

2,620.1

Total

$17,487.7

$17,904.7

$14,917.4

$20,796.1

$2,800
$2,700
$2,600
$2,500
$2,400
$2,300
$2,200
$2,100
$2,000
$1,900
$1,800
$1,700
$1,600
$1,500
$1,400
$1,300
$1,200
$1,100
$1,000
$900
2007

2008

2009

Official

November 2006

2010

2011

Mean

2012

2013

80% Conf.

2014

2015

2016

20% Conf.

6

ARIZONA REAL INCOME PER CAPITA
5.0%
4.5%

Growth Rate

4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Fiscal Year
Median

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH
6.0%

Growth Rate

5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%

0.0%
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Fiscal Year
Median

November 2006

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

7

ARIZONA WAGE & SALARY EMPLOYMENT
8.0%
7.0%

Growth Rate

6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Fiscal Year
Median

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

ARIZONA GROSS STATE PRODUCT
8.0%
7.0%

Growth Rate

6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Fiscal Year
Median

November 2006

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

8

2016

PANELIST MEAN DATA VALUES
Income
Growth
FY 2007
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2008
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2009
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2010
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2011
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2016
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2021
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2026
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

Population Wage & Salary
Gross State
Growth Employ. Growth Product Growth

2.89
1.35
2.14

3.32
2.67
3.00

5.06
2.80
3.96

6.05
3.79
4.84

2.62
1.03
1.86

3.33
2.64
3.00

4.77
2.35
3.59

5.84
3.57
4.54

2.47
0.67
1.60

3.26
2.51
2.92

4.43
2.04
3.34

5.79
3.49
4.51

2.33
0.51
1.45

3.21
2.43
2.86

4.65
1.86
3.28

5.76
3.39
4.50

2.37
0.43
1.47

3.16
2.34
2.81

4.68
1.78
3.22

5.77
3.25
4.43

2.48
0.28
1.42

3.04
1.98
2.56

4.59
1.55
3.05

5.77
3.24
4.41

2.48
0.19
1.35

2.91
1.66
2.31

4.48
1.30
2.88

5.61
2.93
4.18

2.50
0.10
1.38

2.85
1.44
2.17

4.44
1.01
2.74

5.63
2.84
4.13

All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.

November 2006

9

ARIZONA REAL PER CAPITA INCOME GROWTH
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021
Panelist 1
Upper 10% 3.30 2.20 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.20 2.20
Lower 10% 1.50 0.50 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 -0.50
Median 2.40 1.50 1.40 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20
Panelist 2
Upper 10% 3.41 2.75 2.30 2.41 2.30 2.20 2.60
Lower 10% 1.71 1.00 0.55 0.61 0.45 0.25 0.40
Median 2.41 1.75 1.30 1.41 1.30 1.10 1.30
Panelist 3
Upper 10% 2.90 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.80 2.80 2.40
Lower 10% 1.30 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.30 1.00 0.50
Median 2.10 2.20 2.10 2.00 2.00 1.70 1.50
Panelist 4
Upper 10% 3.50 3.40 3.40 3.00 3.00 2.80 2.80
Lower 10% 1.53 1.00 0.80 0.40 0.20 0.00 -0.50
Median 2.80 2.40 2.00 1.80 1.80 1.60 1.50
Panelist 5
Upper 10% 2.30 2.10 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90
Lower 10% 1.70 1.50 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40
Median 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.60
Panelist 6
Upper 10% 3.12 2.72 2.82 2.72 2.62 2.52 2.42
Lower 10% 1.08 1.18 1.08 0.98 0.88 0.78 0.68
Median 2.30 1.90 2.00 1.90 1.80 1.70 1.60
Panelist 7
Upper 10% 2.40 2.30 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.20 2.30
Lower 10% 0.70 0.60 0.30 0.10 -0.50 -1.00 -1.30
Median 1.50 1.40 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80
Panelist 8
Upper 10% 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30
Lower 10% 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70
Median 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Panelist 9
Upper 10% 2.80 3.00 3.20 3.00 3.00 2.60 2.40
Lower 10% 1.50 1.10 0.00 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 -1.50
Median 2.20 2.10 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.00 0.70
Panelist 10
Upper 10% 2.50 2.70 2.50 2.20 2.18 2.20 2.20
Lower 10% 0.80 0.80 0.50 0.30 0.20 0.00 0.02
Median 1.50 2.00 1.50 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10
Panelist 11
Upper 10% 3.47 2.67 1.96 2.31 2.34 2.97 3.07
Lower 10% 1.07 0.27 -0.04 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Median 2.27 1.47 0.96 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Panelist 12
Upper 10% 2.50 2.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 3.00
Lower 10% 1.50 1.00 0.00 -0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00
Median 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 2.00
Panelist 13
Upper 10% 3.10 2.90 2.60 2.40 2.30 2.50 2.60
Lower 10% 1.50 1.30 1.00 0.80 0.70 0.30 0.00
Median 2.30 2.10 1.80 1.60 1.50 1.40 1.30
All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.

November 2006

2026
2.20
-0.50
1.20
3.00
0.60
1.50
2.30
0.50
1.50
2.80
-0.50
1.50
1.90
1.40
1.60
2.32
-0.82
1.50
2.40
-1.50
0.80
2.30
1.70
2.00
2.40
-1.10
0.80
2.20
0.00
1.10
2.73
0.50
1.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
2.90
0.00
1.40

10

ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021
Panelist 1
Upper 10%
3.30 3.50 3.60 3.60 3.60 3.50 3.50
Lower 10%
2.50 2.40 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.00 1.50
Median
2.90 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.50 2.20
Panelist 2
Upper 10%
3.20 3.27 3.16 3.15 3.06 2.62 2.50
Lower 10%
2.70 2.72 2.56 2.40 2.31 1.75 1.40
Median
2.90 2.97 2.86 2.75 2.66 2.20 1.90
Panelist 3
Upper 10%
3.50 3.60 3.60 3.60 3.60 3.50 3.00
Lower 10%
2.40 2.60 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.00 1.60
Median
3.10 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.00 2.60
Panelist 4
Upper 10%
3.40 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.20 3.00 3.00
Lower 10%
2.80 2.64 2.53 2.42 2.33 1.90 1.21
Median
3.10 2.97 3.00 2.90 2.90 2.70 2.30
Panelist 5
Upper 10%
3.40 3.50 3.50 3.40 3.30 3.30 3.30
Lower 10%
2.70 2.80 2.80 2.70 2.50 2.50 2.50
Median
3.00 3.10 3.10 3.00 2.90 2.90 2.90
Panelist 6
Upper 10%
3.23 3.20 3.19 3.09 2.99 2.90 2.80
Lower 10%
2.40 2.40 2.25 2.10 1.95 1.20 0.80
Median
2.90 2.80 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.00
Panelist 7
Upper 10%
3.40 3.40 3.30 3.20 3.20 3.10 3.00
Lower 10%
2.60 2.50 2.40 2.30 2.20 1.90 1.70
Median
2.90 2.90 2.80 2.70 2.70 2.40 2.20
Panelist 8
Upper 10%
3.10 3.10 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.80 2.60
Lower 10%
2.70 2.70 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.20 2.00
Median
2.90 2.90 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.50 2.30
Panelist 9
Upper 10%
3.30 3.35 3.40 3.30 3.25 3.10 3.00
Lower 10%
2.80 2.75 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.30 2.10
Median
3.10 3.05 3.00 2.95 2.90 2.80 2.70
Panelist 10
Upper 10%
3.40 3.40 3.30 3.20 3.20 3.10 3.00
Lower 10%
2.80 2.70 2.50 2.42 2.33 2.00 1.50
Median
3.10 3.10 3.00 2.90 2.80 2.50 2.20
Panelist 11
Upper 10%
3.14 3.10 2.79 2.73 2.39 2.44 2.44
Lower 10%
2.84 2.75 2.42 2.33 1.94 1.94 1.94
Median
3.14 3.05 2.72 2.63 2.24 2.24 2.24
Panelist 12
Upper 10%
3.50 3.30 3.00 3.00 3.20 3.00 2.50
Lower 10%
2.70 2.60 2.30 2.30 2.50 2.00 1.50
Median
3.00 2.80 2.70 2.80 3.00 2.50 2.00
Panelist 13
Upper 10%
6.60 6.50 6.30 6.50 6.40 6.30 6.40
Lower 10%
2.70 2.70 2.65 2.60 2.50 2.10 1.80
Median
3.00 3.00 2.95 2.90 2.80 2.60 2.50
All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.

November 2006

2026
3.50
1.00
2.20
2.60
1.00
1.60
2.75
1.30
2.30
2.70
1.20
2.20
3.30
2.50
2.90
2.70
0.80
1.60
3.00
1.40
2.10
2.30
1.70
2.00
2.90
1.90
2.60
2.80
1.00
2.00
2.43
1.93
2.23
2.50
1.50
2.00
6.70
1.50
2.50

11

ARIZONA WAGE & SALARY EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026
Panelist 1
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 2
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 3
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 4
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 5
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 6
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 7
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 8
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 9
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 10
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 11
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 12
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 13
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

6.00 5.50 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
2.80 1.70 1.60 1.50 1.40 1.00 0.50 0.50
4.30 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
4.69 3.99 3.80 4.00 4.25 4.40 4.40 4.70
3.09 2.29 1.70 1.80 1.75 1.60 1.50 1.50
4.19 3.39 3.00 3.00 2.95 2.70 2.50 2.50
6.00 6.00 3.25 7.00 7.00 6.00 5.50 5.50
3.30 3.30 3.50 3.75 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.00
4.50 4.25 4.80 5.50 5.25 4.30 4.00 3.50
5.50 5.10 4.80 4.50 4.52 4.50 4.00 4.00
3.20 2.40 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.80 0.50 0.00
4.30 3.80 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.00 2.60 2.40
5.50 5.50 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
4.50 4.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
5.00 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50
5.60 5.30 5.05 4.80 4.55 4.05 3.55 3.05
2.00 1.70 1.45 1.20 0.95 0.45 -0.05 -0.55
3.80 3.50 3.25 3.00 2.75 2.25 1.75 1.25
4.80 4.90 5.00 5.10 5.20 5.30 5.40 5.50
2.50 2.30 1.80 1.50 1.20 1.00 0.70 0.00
4.00 3.80 3.50 3.30 3.20 3.10 2.90 2.80
5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50
3.00 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50
4.00 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
4.50 4.20 4.10 4.00 3.80 3.50 3.40 3.20
3.60 3.50 3.30 3.10 2.50 2.20 2.00 1.60
4.20 4.00 3.80 3.50 3.00 2.80 2.60 2.40
4.00 4.50 4.70 4.80 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
2.50 2.20 2.00 1.70 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.50
3.00 3.30 3.10 3.00 2.90 2.70 2.50 2.50
4.26 3.69 3.70 3.80 3.58 3.83 3.88 3.60
0.16 -0.41 -0.40 -0.20 0.58 0.83 0.88 0.60
2.26 1.69 1.70 1.80 2.08 2.33 2.38 2.10
4.20 3.50 3.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.00
3.30 2.50 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
3.80 3.20 2.50 2.00 2.20 2.50 2.50 2.50
5.70 5.30 5.20 5.00 4.90 4.60 4.60 4.70
2.50 2.10 2.00 1.80 1.70 1.20 0.80 0.50
4.10 3.70 3.60 3.40 3.30 2.90 2.70 2.60

All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.

November 2006

12

ARIZONA GROSS STATE PRODUCT GROWTH
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021
Panelist 1
Upper 10%
6.50 6.60 6.70 6.80 6.90 6.00 6.00
Lower 10%
3.80 3.70 3.60 3.50 3.50 3.20 3.00
Median
5.00 5.00 5.00 5.10 5.10 5.00 4.50
Panelist 2
Upper 10%
6.42 6.36 6.73 6.86 6.54 6.50 6.30
Lower 10%
4.02 3.76 3.93 3.96 3.64 3.40 3.10
Median
5.02 4.86 5.13 5.26 4.94 4.80 4.60
Panelist 3
Upper 10%
6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00
Lower 10%
3.50 3.30 3.50 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.00
Median
4.75 4.50 4.80 5.00 4.94 4.80 4.50
Panelist 4
Upper 10%
6.50 6.50 6.48 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50
Lower 10%
4.00 3.80 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.00 2.50
Median
5.20 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.60 4.50
Panelist 5
Upper 10%
6.20 6.00 5.60 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50
Lower 10%
5.40 5.20 4.70 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50
Median
5.80 5.60 5.10 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Panelist 6
Upper 10%
6.00 5.80 6.05 5.85 5.70 5.60 4.50
Lower 10%
4.00 3.80 4.05 3.85 3.70 3.60 2.50
Median
5.00 4.80 5.05 4.85 4.70 4.60 3.50
Panelist 7
Upper 10%
5.80 5.70 5.70 5.80 5.80 6.00 6.30
Lower 10%
3.00 2.80 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.20 2.10
Median
5.20 4.60 4.40 4.30 4.30 4.20 4.10
Panelist 8
Upper 10%
6.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Lower 10%
5.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
Median
5.50 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Panelist 9
Upper 10%
6.30 6.00 5.80 5.70 5.50 5.80 6.00
Lower 10%
4.90 4.50 4.20 3.90 3.30 3.50 3.70
Median
5.20 4.80 4.50 4.30 4.00 4.10 4.20
Panelist 10
Upper 10%
5.50 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.50 5.50
Lower 10%
3.50 3.50 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.00 2.50
Median
4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 3.50 3.50
Panelist 11
Upper 10%
5.27 4.47 3.96 4.31 4.14 4.77 3.47
Lower 10%
0.80 0.80 1.46 1.81 1.84 2.47 1.17
Median
2.00 1.50 2.46 2.81 2.84 3.47 2.17
Panelist 12
Upper 10%
5.50 5.00 5.00 4.00 5.00 5.50 5.50
Lower 10%
3.50 3.50 3.00 2.00 2.00 3.00 3.00
Median
5.00 4.50 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.50 4.00
Panelist 13
Upper 10%
6.60 6.50 6.30 6.50 6.40 6.30 6.40
Lower 10%
3.80 3.70 3.50 3.70 3.60 3.30 3.00
Median
5.20 5.10 4.90 5.10 5.00 4.80 4.70
All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.

November 2006

2026
6.00
3.00
4.50
6.60
3.20
4.70
6.00
3.00
4.50
6.50
2.50
4.50
5.50
4.50
5.00
4.00
2.00
3.00
6.50
1.90
4.00
5.00
4.00
5.00
6.20
3.80
4.40
5.50
2.50
3.50
3.13
0.83
1.83
5.50
3.00
4.00
6.70
2.70
4.70

13

HISTORICAL DATA
ARIZONA REAL PER CAPITA INCOME GROWTH
Using Phoenix CPI to Measure Inflation
(Annual Percent Change)

HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

3.4%
1.7%
-4.5%
-3.7%
1.4%
3.7%
2.3%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

-0.7%
-1.6%
-3.1%
-0.7%
4.6%
3.8%
1.5%
1.7%
1.6%
0.5%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

-0.2%
-2.5%
-1.9%
-0.9%
0.1%
0.4%
0.0%
-0.1%
1.3%
1.1%

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 *
2007
2008
2009

1.8%
2.0%
-0.2%
0.2%
1.4%
1.9%
2.2%

* Estimate

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.1
0.1

Percent Change
Percent Change

0.08
0.08
0.04
0.04
0.06
0.06
0.04
0.04
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0 000
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.04
-0.04
-0.06
-0.06
-0.04
-0.04
-0.04
-0.08
-0.08
-0.06
-0.1
-0.1
-0.06
-0.06
73
74
75
75
76
76
77
77
78
787879
79 80
80
80 81
81
8182
82
8283
83
83 83
84
8485
8585
86
86
87
87
8887
88
8989
9090
9191
92929394
939495
94
9596
95
96
97
97
989698
999799
00 00
01 01
02 02
03
03
04
04
05
737474
7475
75
76
77
86
87
88
89
90
9796
98
04 01
05 03
06
74
7576
7677
7778
85
86
89
90
95
02
7373
7979
8080
8181
82828384
848485
86
87
88 88
89 91
9092
919391
92 92
93 93
94 94
95
96 99
97 00
980198
990299
000300
01
02
FiscalYear
Year
Fiscal

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

November 2006

Historical
Min.
Max.
Mean
-0.2%
2.2%
1.1%
-0.2%
2.2%
1.2%
-4.5%
4.6%
0.5%

Std.
80% Range
Dev.
Lower
Upper
1.1% -0.1%
2.1%
0.9% -0.1%
2.0%
2.1% -2.3%
3.1%

14

HISTORICAL DATA
ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH
(Annual Percent Change)

HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

4.5%
3.4%
2.3%
1.8%
1.9%
2.0%
2.2%
3.3%

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

3.3%
5.6%
5.9%
5.8%
4.7%
2.8%
2.7%
3.4%
3.7%
4.8%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

3.8%
2.6%
2.8%
2.7%
3.3%
3.8%
3.9%
3.9%
2.9%
2.5%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

1.7%
2.8%
3.4%
3.8%
4.4%
4.4%
3.5%
3.3%
3.1%
2.9%

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

2.8%
2.5%
2.7%
2.6%
3.0%
3.4%
3.1%

BEA FY 1962-2005. FY 2006 and FY 2007 based on Arizona Blue Chip estimate, June 2006.
FY 2008-2026 based on DES Arizona Population Projections 2006-2055 growth rates dated March 31, 2006.

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED

0.07
0.07
Percent
PercentChange
Change

0.06
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0
0
62
63
64 65
65 66
66 67
67 6869
6869
69
81
85
86
87
88
89
90
63
62 64
63 64
65
66
67
68
70 7070
717171
727272
737373
747474
757575
767676
7777 77
7878 78
79
79 79
80
80 80
81
81 82
82 82
83
83 83
84 84
85
85 86
86 87
87 88
88 89
89 90
90 91
91 9291
92 9392
939493
949594
959695
969796
979897
989998
9900 99
00
01 00
01
02 01
02
03 02
03
04 03
04
05 04
06
05
Fiscal Year

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

November 2006

Historical
Min.
Max.
2.6%
3.4%
2.5%
3.4%
1.7%
5.9%

Mean
2.9%
2.9%
3.3%

Std.
Dev.
0.3%
0.3%
1.0%

80% Range
Lower
Upper
2.6%
3.3%
2.6%
3.3%
2.2%
4.6%

15

HISTORICAL DATA
ARIZONA WAGE & SALARY EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
(Annual Percent Change)

HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

6.0%
8.8%
10.8%
7.3%
1.0%
0.9%
5.4%
8.7%
10.0%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

6.3%
3.0%
0.8%
1.8%
7.2%
8.9%
6.3%
4.1%
3.0%
2.4%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

2.2%
1.2%
1.1%
3.1%
5.6%
6.4%
5.7%
5.1%
4.7%
4.4%

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 *
2007
2008
2009

4.0%
2.3%
0.5%
0.7%
2.5%
4.5%
4.9%

* Estimate

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED
0.12
0.16
0.12

Percent
Percent
Percent Change
Change
Change

0.14
0.10.1
0.12
0.1
0.1
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.02
0.02
00
0.02
0.02
-0.02
-0.02
0
-0.04
0
-0.04
7374
7473
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
91
92
93
94
98
01
02
73
73
71 74
74
72 75
7575
74
76
7676
75
77
77
7776
78
78
7877
79
79
79
7880
80
80
79 81
81
80
8182
82
81
8283
82
83
8384
83
84
8484
85
85
85
85
86
86
86
8787
87
87
8888
88
88
8989
8990
8990
90
91
90
91
9190
92
91
92
9293
92
939394
94
939495
94
95
96
96
95
96
97
9795
96
98
97
9896
97
99
98
9997
00
98
99
0001
99
00
010299
00
01
020300
01
02
03
04 02
04
03
05 05
03
04
06
Fiscal
Fiscal
FiscalYear
Year
Year

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

November 2006

Historical
Min.
Max.
Mean
0.5%
4.9%
2.6%
0.5%
5.1%
3.4%
0.5% 10.8%
4.5%

Std.
80% Range
Dev.
Lower
Upper
2.1%
0.6%
4.8%
1.7%
0.7%
4.9%
2.8%
0.9%
8.7%

16

HISTORICAL DATA
ARIZONA REAL GROSS STATE PRODUCT GROWTH
Using Phoenix CPI to Measure Inflation
(Annual Percent Change)

HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

7.2%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

0.9%
-2.2%
-2.6%
1.9%
10.0%
8.4%
5.9%
5.6%
3.9%
1.5%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

-0.5%
-0.3%
3.8%
5.2%
5.7%
6.2%
4.2%
5.6%
5.5%
4.0%

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 *
2007
2008
2009

3.8%
3.0%
2.3%
3.3%
3.8%
5.4%
6.1%

* Estimate

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED
0.16
0.14

Percent Change

0.12
0.1
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
00
-0.02
-0.04
79
79 80 81 82
82 83
83 84
84 85
85 86
86 87
87 8888 8989 9090 9191 92929393949495 9596 9697 9798 9899 99
00 00
01 01
02 02
03 03
04 04
05 05
06
Fiscal Year

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

November 2006

Historical
Min.
Max.
Mean
2.3%
6.1%
4.2%
2.3%
6.1%
4.3%
-2.6% 10.0%
3.8%

Std.
80% Range
Dev.
Lower
Upper
1.6%
2.7%
5.8%
1.3%
2.9%
5.6%
3.0% -0.4%
6.5%

17