Arizona Department of Transportation

ARIZONA HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND
Forecasting Process & Results
FY 2006-2015

Financial Management Services
November 2005

ARIZONA HIGHWAY USER REVENUE FUND
OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE
RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES
as of November 2005
Introduction
This document presents the Arizona Department of Transportation’s (Department) forecast of
expected values for the Arizona Highway User Revenue Fund for the period FY 2006-2015.
Background
The State of Arizona taxes motor fuels and collects a variety of fees relating to the registration and
operation of motor vehicles in the state. These collections include gasoline and use fuel taxes,
motor carrier fees, vehicle license taxes, motor vehicle registration fees, and other miscellaneous
fees. These revenues are deposited in the Arizona Highway User Revenue Fund (HURF) and are
then distributed to the cities, towns and counties of the State and to the State Highway Fund, which
is administered by the Department. These taxes and fees represent the primary source of revenues
available to the state for highway construction, improvements and other related expenses.
Since 1986, the Department has estimated Highway Revenues for the State using a comprehensive
regression-based econometric model. In 1989, the model was updated by Dr. Alberta Charney of
the University of Arizona. The model relied on the estimates of certain “independent variables” to
predict future tax revenues. The model’s revenue forecast was highly dependent on estimates of
the independent variables. Any variability between estimated and actual values could lead to
variances in the tax forecast. In order to deal with this variability, the Department introduced the
Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies upon probability analysis and the
independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. This results in a
series of forecasts with specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess”
estimate.
In 1997, Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB), working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of
Arizona State University, developed a new forecasting model to incorporate certain economic data
generated over the past ten years and evaluate the inclusion of independent variables absent from
the 1989 model, to enhance the model’s forecasting accuracy. HLB also eliminated independent
variables that were either not significant to the model or were not readily available. The new model
also took into consideration 1997 legislation (SB 1144 and SB 1398) which eliminated the weight
distance tax on motor carriers, increased weight and use fees for use class vehicles, and changed
the point of taxation on fuel. In September 2000 and 2003, HLB reviewed the model and updated
the equations. The independent variables contained in the model included Arizona real income
growth per capita, population growth, wage & salary employment growth and fleet fuel efficiency.
In 2005, HDR\HLB developed a new forecasting model to incorporate additional economic data
that would enhance the model’s forecasting accuracy. The Arizona real gross state product
independent variable was added to the model to incorporate the impact of the Arizona economy on
the commercial registration activities. The independent variables contained in the updated model
include:
November 2005

1

•
•
•
•
•

Arizona real income growth per capita
Arizona population growth
Arizona wage & salary employment growth
Arizona real gross state product
Arizona fleet fuel efficiency
Risk Analysis Panel

The Risk Analysis Process relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economic and
financial participants to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In September 2005,
a panel of twelve economic and finance experts representing public, private, and academic sectors
submitted their individual estimates of the model’s independent variables and comments on the
future economic outlook.
The information gathered from the panelists was input into the updated model to produce a series
of forecasts with associated probabilities of occurrence. The panelists’ inputs are reflected in the
attached tables at the back of this report.
Model Results
This year’s panel inputs produced a mean forecast of $16,527.5 million for the period FY 20062015 with a compound growth rate of 5.0 percent.
The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2006-2015 totals $16,395.6 million with a compound
growth rate of 5.0 percent. The Official Forecast incorporates the 50 percent confidence interval
for each year of the forecast. The FY 2006 forecast of $1,306.3 million was developed in July
2005 by ADOT staff using time-series techniques, historical and projected growth rates from the
model, and recent legislative changes.

FY 2006 Official Forecast
(Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal
Year
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Total

November 2005

Mean
Official
Confidence
Forecast
Forecast
Level
$1,311.7
$1,306.3
N/A
$1,384.1 $1,375.1
50%
$1,454.9
$1,443.3
50%
$1,524.9
$1,513.3
50%
$1,597.4
$1,584.8
50%
$1,674.5
$1,660.6
50%
$1,756.8
$1,742.0
50%
$1,844.7
$1,827.9
50%
$1,938.9
$1,920.5
50%
$2,039.6
$2,021.7
50%
$16,527.5
$16,395.6

2

Avg. CGR

5.0%

5.0%

For comparison purposes, the November 2004 Official Forecast and the November 2005 Official
Forecast are shown below:

FY 2006 Comparative Forecast
(Dollars in Millions)

Fiscal
Year
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Total
Avg. CGR

Nov. 04
Official
Forecast
$1,303.1
$1,378.1
$1,443.4
$1,511.8
$1,574.4
$1,645.5
$1,715.4
$1,794.3
$1,871.7
$1,952.5
$16,190.3
4.6%

Nov. 05
Official
Forecast
Difference
$1,306.3
$3.2
$1,375.1
($3.0)
$1,443.3
($0.1)
$1,513.3
$1.5
$1,584.8
$10.4
$1,660.6
$15.0
$1,742.0 $26.6
$1,827.9 $33.6
$1,920.5 $48.8
$2,021.7
$69.2
$16,395.6
$205.3
5.0%

Summary
The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2006-2015 totals $16,395.6 million, an increase of
$205.3 million over the November 2004 Official Forecast. This reflects the panel members’
positive outlook for Arizona’s future economic picture. The Risk Analysis Process panel members
forecasted slightly lower growth in Arizona real per capita personal income for FY 2006-2010
compared to their September 2004 inputs. This could have been due to timing since the RAP panel
session was held three weeks after hurricane Katrina, which caused fuel prices to skyrocket and
increase fear of inflation. The panel members provided slightly higher growth for Arizona wage &
salary employment and population growth over the FY 2006-2015 period. Overall, the panel
members varied only modestly from their inputs from last year’s RAP panel session.
Supplementary Information
The remaining pages of this report present supplementary information on the detailed results of the
Risk Analysis Process, the Department’s model and the values of the independent variables
forecast by the expert panel. While the Official Forecast period is FY 2006-2015, panel inputs
were requested for FY 2006-2010, 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026. Data displayed for other than
the requested years, has been extrapolated.

November 2005

3

November 2005

HURF OFFICIAL REVENUE FORECAST
With Category Detail and Confidence Interval By Fiscal Year
(Current Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal Year
Percentile

2005
Actual

2006
50%

2007
50%

2008
50%

2009
50%

2010
50%

2011
50%

2012
50%

2013
50%

2014
50%

2015
50%

Gasoline Tax

$481.3

$497.2

$528.8

$550.5

$572.3

$594.6

$616.4

$639.7

$663.9

$689.8

$717.8

Use Fuel Tax

194.4

205.0

211.0

218.9

226.7

234.2

241.9

249.8

258.3

267.1

276.8

38.0

40.3

39.7

40.8

42.0

43.3

45.0

46.9

48.9

51.3

53.6

Vehicle License Tax

328.2

350.3

378.9

409.3

441.5

474.5

510.9

550.4

592.5

637.9

688.7

Registration

154.1

160.3

162.3

167.1

171.8

176.9

182.7

189.0

195.4

202.7

210.2

49.6

53.2

54.4

56.7

59.0

61.3

63.7

66.2

68.9

71.7

74.6

Motor Carrier Fee

Other

Total

$1,245.6 $1,306.3 $1,375.1 $1,443.3 $1,513.3 $1,584.8 $1,660.6 $1,742.0 $1,827.9 $1,920.5 $2,021.7

4

November 2005

HURF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS
(Current Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal Year

Mean

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2006

$1,311.7

$1,428.3

$1,385.0

$1,354.5

$1,329.1

$1,306.7

$1,284.5

$1,261.5

$1,236.6

$1,202.3

2007

1,384.1

1,548.4

1,486.3

1,441.6

1,407.2

1,375.1

1,344.2

1,312.0

1,279.0

1,233.0

2008

1,454.9

1,643.3

1,571.2

1,520.4

1,480.2

1,443.3

1,409.0

1,372.7

1,333.8

1,281.9

2009

1,524.9

1,728.9

1,652.2

1,596.2

1,552.1

1,513.3

1,475.4

1,436.0

1,393.0

1,338.0

2010

1,597.4

1,814.7

1,732.0

1,674.1

1,626.7

1,584.8

1,544.8

1,501.7

1,455.9

1,397.1

2011

1,674.5

1,905.8

1,818.5

1,756.4

1,704.0

1,660.6

1,617.9

592.5

1,525.2

1,460.8

2012

1,756.8

2,002.0

1,910.1

1,842.7

1,788.9

1,742.0

1,697.0

1,650.4

1,596.8

1,529.1

2013

1,844.7

2,105.1

2,007.5

1,936.4

1,879.3

1,827.9

1,780.6

1,731.7

1,675.4

1,602.6

2014

1,938.9

2,214.2

2,109.3

2,037.8

1,974.3

1,920.5

1,871.5

1,820.6

1,759.1

1,682.6

2015

2,039.6

2,335.7

2,221.8

2,141.4

2,075.4

2,021.7

1,969.2

1,915.8

1,848.0

1,767.6

5

OFFICIAL FORECAST RESULTS
(Current Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal

Official

Mean

80% Conf.

20% Conf.

Year

Forecast

Forecast

Interval

Interval

2006

$1,306.3

$1,311.7

$1,236.6

$1,385.0

2007

1,375.1

1,384.1

1,279.0

1,486.3

2008

1,443.3

1,454.9

1,333.8

1,571.2

2009

1,513.3

1,524.9

1,393.0

1,652.2

2010

1,584.8

1,597.4

1,455.9

1,732.0

2011

1,660.6

1,674.5

1,525.2

1,818.5

2012

1,742.0

1,756.8

1,596.8

1,910.1

2013

1,827.9

1,844.7

1,675.4

2,007.5

2014

1,920.5

1,938.9

1,759.1

2,109.3

2015

2,021.7

2,039.6

1,848.0

2,221.8

Total

$16,395.6

$16,527.5

$15,102.9

$17,893.8

$2,300
$2,200

Millions of Current Dollars

$2,100
$2,000
$1,900
$1,800
$1,700
$1,600
$1,500
$1,400
$1,300
$1,200
$1,100
$1,000
$900
$800
2006

2007

2008

Official

November 2005

2009

2010

Mean

2011

2012

80% Conf.

2013

2014

2015

20% Conf.

6

ARIZONA REAL INCOME PER CAPITA
5.0%

Growth Rate

4.0%
3.0%

2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Fiscal Year
Median

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH
6.0%

Growth Rate

5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%

1.0%
0.0%
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Fiscal Year
Median

November 2005

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

7

ARIZONA WAGE & SALARY EMPLOYMENT
8.0%
7.0%

Growth Rate

6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Fiscal Year
Median

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

ARIZONA GROSS STATE PRODUCT
8.0%
7.0%

Growth Rate

6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Fiscal Year
Median

November 2005

Lower 10%

Upper 10%

8

2015

PANELIST MEAN DATA VALUES
Income
Growth
FY 2006
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2007
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2008
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2009
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2010
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2011
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2016
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2021
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
FY 2026
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

Population Wage & Salary
Gross State
Growth
Employ. Growth Product Growth

2.38
0.73
1.62

3.45
2.73
3.10

5.03
2.63
3.93

5.47
3.09
4.34

2.28
0.55
1.42

3.37
2.62
2.98

4.73
1.96
3.55

5.29
2.77
4.12

2.12
0.26
1.23

3.29
2.49
2.86

4.75
1.64
3.38

5.48
2.55
4.02

2.11
0.13
1.09

3.22
2.38
2.78

4.64
1.50
3.24

5.54
2.56
4.03

2.10
0.05
1.07

3.19
2.31
2.71

4.59
1.21
3.08

5.60
2.49
4.12

2.08
-0.06
1.01

3.11
2.20
2.66

4.55
1.10
3.04

5.60
2.38
4.07

2.10
-0.12
0.88

3.04
1.94
2.42

4.41
0.88
2.83

5.56
2.21
3.91

2.18
-0.24
0.85

2.99
1.70
2.29

4.40
0.72
2.60

5.59
2.11
3.83

2.18
-0.25
0.83

2.94
1.47
2.15

4.42
0.43
2.49

5.63
2.01
3.76

All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.

November 2005

9

ARIZONA REAL PER CAPITA INCOME GROWTH
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026
Panelist 1
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 2
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 3
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 4
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 5
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 6
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 7
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 8
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 9
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 10
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 11
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 12
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

2.00 2.50 2.40 2.90 3.60 3.70 3.50 3.50 3.50
0.20 -0.50 -0.20 0.00 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00
1.00 0.70 0.60 0.90 1.40 1.70 1.40 0.90 0.80
1.80 1.80 1.80 1.50 1.25 1.00 1.00 0.90 0.80
0.75 0.50 0.00 0.00 -0.50 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00
1.50 1.50 1.40 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50
1.70 1.80 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
0.70 0.60 0.60 0.50 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.10 0.10
1.30 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.50 0.50 0.50
3.00 3.20 3.20 3.30 3.30 3.20 3.10 3.00 3.00
0.50 0.40 0.00 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00
1.60 1.50 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.00 1.00 1.00
2.60 2.50 2.30 2.40 2.60 2.70 2.90 3.00 3.00
0.40 0.30 0.00 -0.20 -0.50 -0.60 -1.00 -1.20 -1.20
1.40 1.20 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90
2.40 2.30 2.20 2.10 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.00 0.00
1.80 1.70 1.60 1.50 1.40 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.20
2.10 0.90 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80
0.30 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00 -0.05 -0.05
1.30 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.50 -0.50 0.00 0.00
3.00 2.80 2.60 2.40 2.00 2.00 2.00 3.00 3.00
0.70 0.90 0.60 0.20 0.00 -0.50 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00
2.00 1.80 1.60 1.20 1.00 1.00 0.80 0.80 0.80
2.90 2.70 2.40 2.20 2.20 2.10 2.00 2.00 2.00
0.70 0.50 0.50 0.40 0.40 0.30 0.30 0.20 0.20
2.00 2.00 1.80 1.30 1.20 1.10 0.90 0.80 0.80
2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50
1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
1.00 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.50 1.50 1.50
0.80 0.80 0.60 0.00 -0.20 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50
1.50 1.50 1.40 1.00 0.70 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.

November 2005

10

ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026
Panelist 1
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 2
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 3
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 4
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 5
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 6
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 7
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 8
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 9
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 10
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 11
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 12
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

3.50 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.40
2.60 2.30 2.00 1.90 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80
3.10 2.70 2.70 2.50 2.40 2.60 2.80 2.80 2.90
3.30 3.40 3.30 3.30 3.20 3.20 2.90 2.80 2.80
2.90 2.80 2.80 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.25 2.00 1.80
3.10 3.10 3.00 3.00 2.90 2.90 2.50 2.40 2.20
3.30 3.20 3.20 3.10 3.00 3.00 2.80 2.50 2.50
2.80 2.70 2.50 2.30 2.20 2.00 1.70 1.40 1.00
3.10 3.00 2.90 2.80 2.70 2.50 2.00 2.00 1.50
3.70 3.70 3.80 3.80 3.80 3.80 4.00 4.00 4.00
2.20 2.20 2.10 2.10 2.00 1.90 1.50 1.50 1.50
3.00 2.90 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.20 2.20 2.20
3.50 3.30 3.20 3.10 3.10 3.00 3.00 3.20 3.20
2.70 2.50 2.40 2.30 2.30 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.30
3.10 2.90 2.80 2.70 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.50 2.20
3.60 3.50 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.30 3.30 3.20
2.70 2.70 2.50 2.50 2.40 2.40 2.20 2.20 2.00
3.00 3.00 2.80 2.80 2.70 2.70 2.60 2.60 2.50
3.60 3.60 3.10 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
3.00 3.00 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.00 2.00 2.00
3.40 3.40 2.90 2.80 2.70 2.60 2.20 2.20 2.20
3.30 3.20 3.10 3.00 3.00 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.70
2.70 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.40 2.20 1.90 1.60 1.30
3.00 2.90 2.80 2.80 2.70 2.70 2.40 2.20 2.00
3.50 3.40 3.40 3.30 3.30 3.00 2.80 2.60 2.50
2.90 2.80 2.70 2.40 2.30 2.10 2.00 1.80 1.50
3.20 3.10 3.00 2.80 2.80 2.70 2.60 2.40 2.20
3.30 3.20 3.20 3.10 3.00 3.00 2.90 2.70 2.50
2.70 2.60 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.40 2.00 1.50 1.00
3.00 2.90 2.90 2.80 2.70 2.70 2.50 2.00 2.00
3.34 3..14 3.14 3.04 3.04 2.83 2.72 2.80 2.81
2.66 2.46 2.46 2.36 2.36 2.17 1.88 1.20 0.99
3.00 2.80 2.80 2.70 2.70 2.50 2.30 2.00 1.90
3.50 3.40 3.20 3.10 3.00 2.90 2.60 2.60 2.70
2.90 2.80 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.30 2.00 1.60 1.50
3.20 3.10 2.90 2.80 2.70 2.60 2.40 2.20 2.00

All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.

November 2005

11

ARIZONA WAGE & SALARY EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026
Panelist 1
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 2
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 3
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 4
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 5
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 6
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 7
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 8
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 9
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 10
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 11
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 12
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

3.50 3.50 4.50 5.50 5.80 5.80 5.50 5.70 5.60
1.90 0.80 0.80 0.80 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
2.70 2.00 3.40 4.10 3.80 3.80 3.00 3.40 3.90
6.00 5.50 5.50 5.00 4.00 4.00 3.50 3.00 3.00
3.00 2.75 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.50 1.00
4.50 4.20 4.00 3.60 3.50 3.40 3.00 2.50 2.00
4.00 3.70 3.70 3.60 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
3.00 1.50 1.20 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
3.60 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.50 1.00
4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80
2.50 2.50 2.40 2.20 2.20 2.20 1.40 1.20 1.00
4.00 4.20 4.00 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.50
5.10 4.80 4.90 4.00 4.80 4.60 4.40 5.00 5.30
2.20 1.60 1.20 1.00 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 -0.50
4.10 3.60 3.40 3.30 3.00 2.90 2.70 2.50 2.40
6.00 5.90 5.80 5.70 5.30 5.20 5.00 5.00 5.00
2.00 1.90 1.80 1.70 1.60 1.50 1.20 1.20 1.00
3.80 3.70 3.60 3.50 3.50 3.40 3.20 3.20 3.00
5.50 4.30 3.70 3.70 3.80 3.80 3.50 3.30 3.30
3.20 2.30 1.40 1.40 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.70 0.70
4.10 3.30 2.40 2.40 2.50 2.80 3.00 2.00 2.00
6.00 5.80 5.40 5.20 5.00 5.00 5.20 5.20 5.20
2.00 1.50 1.00 0.80 0.80 0.50 0.00 -0.30 -0.30
4.00 3.50 3.30 3.00 2.80 2.80 2.60 2.60 2.60
4.70 4.80 5.20 5.10 5.20 5.10 5.00 4.80 4.50
3.70 3.20 3.00 2.60 2.20 1.60 1.20 0.80 0.80
4.20 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.00 2.70 2.70 2.50 2.50
5.00 4.50 4.50 4.30 4.30 4.20 4.00 4.00 4.00
2.00 2.00 1.90 1.90 1.70 1.70 1.50 2.00 0.00
4.00 3.90 3.80 3.80 3.70 3.70 3.20 3.00 2.50
5.50 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
2.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
4.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
4.30 4.10 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.60 3.50 3.50 3.50
3.50 2.50 1.50 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.50 0.50 0.50
4.10 3.90 3.00 2.80 2.60 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50

All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.

November 2005

12

ARIZONA GROSS STATE PRODUCT GROWTH
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026
Panelist 1
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 2
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 3
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 4
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 5
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 6
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 7
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 8
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 9
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 10
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 11
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median
Panelist 12
Upper 10%
Lower 10%
Median

4.50 4.00 5.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50
2.00 1.70 2.20 2.80 2.60 2.00 1.70 2.00 2.00
3.50 3.00 3.90 4.40 4.80 4.00 3.50 3.60 3.80
6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.75 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
4.50 3.00 2.75 2.75 2.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 1.50
5.00 4.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 3.75 3.75 3.50 3.00
5.30 5.00 5.50 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.50 5.50
3.00 2.50 2.50 2.40 2.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 3.70 3.50 3.00
6.50 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00
2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
5.30 5.50 5.80 6.10 6.20 6.30 6.50 6.60 7.00
2.90 2.80 2.70 2.30 2.00 1.80 1.50 1.00 0.50
4.20 4.30 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.30 4.30 4.30
5.70 5.80 5.80 5.90 5.90 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00
3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.80 2.80 2.50 2.30
4.20 4.30 4.30 4.40 4.40 4.50 4.30 4.30 4.20
4.70 4.00 3.00 2.70 3.30 4.00 3.50 3.30 3.30
2.50 2.50 1.00 0.70 1.30 2.00 1.50 1.30 1.30
3.70 3.00 2.00 1.70 2.30 3.00 2.50 2.30 2.30
5.50 6.20 6.40 6.50 6.50 6.40 6.20 6.20 6.80
2.50 2.90 3.00 3.20 3.20 3.40 3.00 3.00 2.50
4.50 4.80 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50
5.60 5.50 5.70 5.80 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.50
4.00 3.80 3.50 3.50 3.00 3.00 2.50 2.50 2.50
5.20 4.80 4.80 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.20 4.00 4.00
5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
2.50 2.50 2.50 2.60 2.80 2.60 2.50 2.50 2.50
4.00 4.20 4.30 4.50 4.50 4.20 4.20 4.00 4.00
6.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
4.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
5.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
5.50 5.50 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00
4.00 3.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50
4.80 4.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00

All data in the above table are percentage growth rates.

November 2005

13

HISTORICAL DATA
ARIZONA REAL PER CAPITA INCOME GROWTH
Using Phoenix CPI to Measure Inflation
(Annual Percent Change)

HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

3.4%
1.7%
-4.5%
-3.7%
1.4%
3.7%
2.3%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

-0.7%
-1.6%
-3.1%
-0.7%
4.6%
3.8%
1.5%
1.7%
1.6%
0.5%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

-0.2%
-2.5%
-1.9%
-0.9%
0.1%
0.4%
0.0%
-0.1%
1.3%
1.1%

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005*
2006
2007
2008
2009

1.8%
2.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.7%
1.5%

* Estimate

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.1

Percent Change
Percent Change

0.08
0.04
0.04
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.02
0.02
0 00
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
-0.04
-0.04
-0.04
-0.08
-0.06
-0.1
-0.06
-0.06
73 74 75
75 76
76 77
77 78
78 79
79 80
80 81
81 82
82 83
838484858586868787888889899090
91919292
9393
9494
95 95
96 96
97 97
98 98
99 99
00 00
01 01
02 02
03 01
03
04 02
04
05
7373 74747575767677777878797980808181828283838484858586 8687 8788 88
89 89
90 90
91 91
92 92
93 93
94 94
95 95
96 96
97 97
98 98
99 99
00 00
01 02
03
FiscalYear
Year
Fiscal

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

November 2005

Historical
Min.
Max.
0.1%
2.0%
-0.1%
2.0%
-4.5%
4.6%

Mean
0.9%
0.9%
0.5%

Std.
Dev.
0.8%
0.8%
2.1%

80% Range
Lower Upper
0.2%
1.8%
0.0%
1.8%
-2.4%
3.2%

14

HISTORICAL DATA
ARIZONA POPULATION GROWTH
(Annual Percent Change)

HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

4.5%
3.4%
2.3%
1.8%
1.9%
2.0%
2.2%
3.3%

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

3.3%
5.6%
5.9%
5.8%
4.7%
2.8%
2.7%
3.4%
3.7%
4.8%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

3.8%
2.6%
2.8%
2.7%
3.3%
3.8%
3.9%
3.9%
2.9%
2.5%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

1.7%
2.8%
3.4%
3.8%
4.4%
4.4%
3.5%
3.3%
3.1%
2.9%

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 *
2006
2007
2008
2009

2.8%
2.5%
2.7%
2.6%
3.0%
3.1%

BEA FY 1962-2004. FY 2005 and FY 2006 based on Arizona Blue Chip estimate, June 2005.
FY 2007-2026 based on staff estimate.

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED

0.07
Percent
Percent Change
Change

0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
0
0
62
63 63
64 64
65 65
66 66
67 67
68 68
69 69
70 70
71 71
72 72
73 73
74 74
75 75
76 76
77 77
78 78
79 79
80 80
81 81
82 82
83 83
84 84
85 85
86 86
87 87
88 88
89 89
90 90
91 91
92 92
93 93
94 94
95 95
96 96
97 97
98 98
99 99
00 00
01 01
02 02
03 03
04 04
05
Fiscal Year

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

November 2005

Historical
Min.
Max.
2.5%
3.1%
2.5%
3.5%
1.7%
5.9%

Mean
2.8%
2.9%
3.3%

Std.
Dev.
0.2%
0.3%
1.0%

80% Range
Lower Upper
2.6%
3.0%
2.6%
3.3%
2.2%
4.6%

15

HISTORICAL DATA
ARIZONA WAGE & SALARY EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
(Annual Percent Change)

HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

10.8%
7.3%
1.0%
0.9%
5.4%
8.7%
10.0%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

6.3%
3.0%
0.8%
1.8%
7.2%
8.9%
6.3%
4.1%
3.0%
2.4%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

2.2%
1.2%
1.1%
3.1%
5.6%
6.4%
5.7%
5.1%
4.7%
4.4%

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 *
2006
2007
2008
2009

4.0%
2.3%
0.5%
0.7%
2.4%
3.7%

* Estimate

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED
0.12
0.16
0.12

Percent
Percent
Percent Change
Change

0.14
0.10.1
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.02
0
0.02
0.02
-0.02
-0.04
0 0
73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
73
73 74
74
74 75
75 76
76
76 77
77
77 78
78 79
79
79 80
80
80 81
81
8182
82
8283
838384
84
8485
8585
86
8686
878787
888888
898989
909090
919192
919293
929394
9394
9594
95
9695
96
9796
97
9897
98
9998
99
00 99
00
01 00
01
02 01
02
03 02
03
04 03
05
04
Fiscal
Fiscal
FiscalYear
Year
Year

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

November 2005

Historical
Min.
Max.
0.5%
3.7%
0.5%
5.7%
0.5% 10.8%

Mean
1.9%
3.4%
4.3%

Std.
Dev.
1.3%
1.8%
2.9%

80% Range
Lower Upper
0.6%
3.2%
0.7%
5.2%
0.9%
8.4%

16

HISTORICAL DATA
ARIZONA REAL GROSS STATE PRODUCT GROWTH
Using Phoenix CPI to Measure Inflation
(Annual Percent Change)

HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

7.2%

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

0.9%
-2.2%
-2.6%
1.9%
10.0%
8.4%
5.9%
5.6%
3.9%
1.5%

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

-0.5%
-0.3%
3.8%
5.2%
5.7%
6.2%
4.2%
5.6%
5.3%
3.8%

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 *
2006
2007
2008
2009

97 98 99

00 01 02

3.7%
2.9%
3.0%
3.8%
5.0%
4.8%

* Estimate

HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED
0.16
0.14

Percent Change

0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
-0.02
-0.04
79 80

81 82 83

84 85 86

87 88 89

90 91 92 93 94 95 96
Fiscal Year

HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS

Period
5 Years
10 Years
Full Period

November 2005

Historical
Min.
Max.
2.9%
5.0%
2.9%
5.6%
-2.6% 10.0%

Mean
3.9%
4.2%
3.8%

Std.
Dev.
1.0%
0.9%
3.0%

80% Range
Lower Upper
2.9%
4.9%
3.0%
5.4%
-0.4%
6.6%

17

03 04 05