MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX Forecasting Process & Results FY 2015-2026 Financial Management Services September 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 1 Background 1 Risk Analysis Panel 2 Model Results 2 Summary 3 Supplementary Information 1. RARF Official Revenue Forecast 2. RARF Revenue Risk Analysis Results by Probability 3. RARF Official Revenue Forecast Distribution 4. Panelist Data Values 6. Panel Members Inputs by Independent Variable 7. Independent Variable Historical Values 4 5 6 7-11 12-18 19-25 MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES Introduction In 1985, the voters of Maricopa County approved Proposition 300 to establish a ½ cent transportation excise (sales) tax for construction of a regional freeway system within the county. The ½ cent sales tax was approved for a period of 20 years and ended on December 31, 2005. On November 2, 2004, Maricopa County’s voters approved Proposition 400 which extended the ½ cent sales tax for another 20 years through December 31, 2025. The sales tax extension is used for construction of new freeways, widening of existing freeways and highways, improvements to the arterial street system, regional bus service and other special transportation services, and high capacity transit services such as light rail, bus rapid transit and express buses. This document contains the official forecast of expected values for the Maricopa County Transportation Excise Tax for the period FY 2015–2026 as developed by the Arizona Department of Transportation (the Department) in cooperation with the Maricopa Association of Governments and Valley Metro. Background Since 1986, the Arizona Department of Transportation (the Department) has used a comprehensive regression-based econometric model to estimate Transportation Excise Tax revenues for Maricopa County. These revenues, which flow into the Regional Area Road Fund (RARF), are the major funding source for the Maricopa County Freeway Program. The revenue forecast is highly dependent on estimates of independent variables. In order to deal with variability between estimated and actual values, the Department introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies on probability analysis and the independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. The process results in a series of forecasts, with specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate. Enhanced forecasting accuracy was achieved in July 1996, when Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB) working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State University, incorporated economic data and independent variables which were not included in the 1986 model. In September 2005, the Department had HDR Decision Economics re-examine the structure of the RARF model and re-evaluate the set of explanatory variables used in the production of the RARF revenue forecasts. Three new variables (U. S. Housing Starts, Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic and Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment Growth) were added to the existing list of variables used in the RARF regression equations. The September 2010 panel members requested the Maricopa County per capita personal income variable to be in nominal dollars instead of real dollars. In September 2011, the prime interest rate variable was replaced by the 30 year mortgage rate variable and the U.S. housing starts variable was removed from the model. In September 2014, Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Passenger Traffic was combined with Phoenix Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic to form a Phoenix Sky Harbor/Gateway airports passenger traffic variable. September 2014 1 The independent variables contained in the current model are: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Maricopa County nominal personal income growth Maricopa County population growth Maricopa County construction employment growth Phoenix consumer price index (CPI) Phoenix Sky Harbor/Gateway airports passenger traffic growth Maricopa County total non-farm employment growth 30 year mortgage rate Risk Analysis Panel The Risk Analysis Process (RAP) relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economists to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In August 2014, a panel of eleven economic and financial experts representing public, private, and academic sectors submitted their individual estimates of the model’s independent variables and comments on the future economic outlook. The information gathered from the panelists was input into the forecasting model to produce a series of forecasts with associated probabilities of occurrence. The panelists’ inputs are reflected in the attached tables in this report. Model Results This year’s panel inputs produced a mean forecast of $5,639.3 million for the period FY 2015-2026 with a compound growth rate (CGR) of 4.9 percent. The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 20152026 totals $5,646.4 million with a compound growth rate of 4.5 percent. This year’s official forecast is $120.3 million lower than last year’s official forecast. The Official Forecast result incorporates the 50 percent confidence interval growth rate amount for each year of the forecast except for FY 2015. The FY 2015 forecast of $378.4 million was developed by ADOT staff independently of the econometric model using time series techniques and historical and projected growth rates from the model. FY 2015 Official Forecast Results (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026/1 Mean Forecast $366.8 394.0 416.0 438.2 459.0 480.0 498.5 520.7 542.6 568.4 593.4 361.7 Official Forecast $378.4 402.0 421.0 441.8 460.1 479.1 498.3 519.2 540.4 563.0 586.6 356.5 Total Average CGR $5,639.3 4.9% $5,646.4 4.5% Confidence Level 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Note: /1. Relects the end of the one-half cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025 September 2014 2 For comparison purposes, the November 2013 and September 2014 Official Forecasts are shown below: FY 2015-2026 Comparative Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Nov. 13 Sep. 14 Fiscal Official Official Year Forecast Forecast Difference 2015 $383.4 $378.4 ($5.0) 2016 405.1 402.0 (3.1) 2017 426.7 421.0 (5.7) 2018 448.2 441.8 (6.4) 2019 469.3 460.1 (9.2) 2020 488.8 479.1 (9.7) 2021 510.7 498.3 (12.4) 2022 533.5 519.2 (14.3) 2023 555.0 540.4 (14.6) 2024 578.0 563.0 (15.0) 2025 602.2 586.6 (15.6) 2026/1 365.8 356.5 (9.3) Total Average CGR $5,766.7 4.6% $5,646.4 4.5% ($120.3) Note: /1 Reflects the end of the one-half cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025 Summary The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2015-2026 totals $5,646.4 million, which is $120.3 million less than the November 2013 Official Forecast. The RAP results reflect the panel members’ continued pessimism regarding Maricopa County’s population and job growth with concern that the growth rates may not return to the levels experienced prior to the Great Recession. Compared to last year, the panel inputs for Construction Employment, Non-Farm Employment, Phoenix CPI, and the 30 Year Mortgage Rate were lower in the first few years and then came in higher for the remainder of the forecast period. This year’s panel inputs for Phoenix Sky Harbor/Gateway Airports Traffic were lower than last year’s panel inputs for Phoenix Sky Harbor Traffic for all years in the forecast period except for FY 2018. Maricopa County Population Growth and Nominal Personal Income Growth both saw lower expected growth rates through the entire forecast period compared to last year’s panel inputs. Supplementary Information The remainder of this report presents supplementary information on the detailed results of the RAP model and Risk Analysis Process. While the Official Forecast period is FY 2015-2026, panel inputs were requested for FY 2015-2019, 2024 and 2026. Data displayed for other than the requested years has been extrapolated. September 2014 3 September 2014 $186.4 37.2 31.3 38.5 38.6 12.1 21.5 $365.6 Retail Sales Contracting Utilties Restaurant and Bar Rental of Real Property Rental of Personal Property Other Total $378.4 19.0 12.2 39.8 41.2 31.6 38.9 $195.7 2015 50% $402.0 19.9 12.9 41.6 43.5 32.7 32.8 $218.6 2016 50% $421.0 20.7 13.5 43.6 45.8 33.6 35.2 $228.6 2017 50% $441.8 21.8 14.1 45.7 48.1 34.7 37.5 $239.9 2018 50% $460.1 22.6 15.0 47.3 50.5 35.4 39.1 $250.2 2019 50% Note: /1 FY 2026 totals reflect the transporttion excise tax extension expires on December 31, 2025 2014 Actual Fiscal Year Percentile $479.1 23.6 15.8 49.1 53.1 36.4 41.1 $260.0 2020 50% $498.3 24.6 16.5 50.7 55.3 37.2 42.9 $271.1 2021 50% $519.2 25.8 17.3 53.1 57.9 38.2 44.6 $282.3 2022 50% RARF Official Revenue Forecast With Category Detail and Confidence Interval by Fiscal Year (Current Dollars in Millions) $540.4 26.9 18.0 55.6 60.1 39.4 46.0 $294.4 2023 50% $563.0 28.2 18.8 57.6 63.2 40.8 47.8 $306.6 2024 50% $586.6 29.6 19.6 60.2 66.4 42.1 49.8 $318.9 2025 50% $356.5 18.1 12.0 36.5 40.3 25.4 30.0 $194.2 2026 50% September 2014 $366.8 394.0 416.0 438.2 459.0 480.0 498.5 520.7 542.6 568.4 593.4 361.7 $5,639.3 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026/1 Total $7,914.4 531.2 867.2 827.4 780.4 747.3 711.6 681.0 643.3 603.3 559.8 510.5 $451.4 10% $6,858.6 451.3 736.8 704.4 671.5 643.4 611.7 586.2 557.5 526.8 494.2 458.9 $415.9 20% $6,259.1 404.7 664.4 637.0 606.6 580.5 553.7 533.4 509.7 485.3 456.1 428.7 $399.0 30% $5,903.8 372.3 614.3 587.9 572.2 546.7 524.3 504.7 483.2 459.1 436.2 415.0 $387.9 40% $5,646.4 356.5 586.6 563.0 540.4 519.2 498.3 479.1 460.1 441.8 421.0 402.0 $378.4 50% 358.9 348.3 338.2 $327.4 70% 329.1 322.0 316.6 $311.2 80% 294.2 289.9 289.0 $290.3 90% $4,927.1 307.9 507.4 485.4 467.5 450.6 431.4 416.7 $4,563.1 282.0 465.5 448.3 428.3 413.1 396.5 385.0 $4,158.7 253.3 416.8 400.7 387.9 373.5 360.2 349.6 $3,654.9 217.4 358.6 344.2 333.6 322.1 311.1 306.0 RARF371.6 TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RES 401.3 337.8 298.5 387.2 371.4 358.8 $341.5 60% /1 Totals reflect the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026, but the transportation excise tax expires December 31, 2025. Mean Year Fiscal (Current Dollars in Millions) RARF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS RARF OFFICIAL REVENUE FORECAST DISTRIBUTION (Current Dollars in Millions) Regional Area Road Fund (RARF) /1 Public Transportation Fiscal Freeways Arterial Streets Fund Year (56.2%) (10.5 %) (33.3%) Total 2015 $212.7 $39.7 $126.0 $378.4 2016 225.9 42.2 133.9 402.0 2017 236.6 44.2 140.2 421.0 2018 248.3 46.4 147.1 441.8 2019 258.6 48.3 153.2 460.1 2020 269.3 50.3 159.5 479.1 2021 280.1 52.3 165.9 498.3 2022 291.8 54.5 172.9 519.2 2023 303.7 56.7 180.0 540.4 2024 316.4 59.1 187.5 563.0 2025 329.7 61.6 195.3 586.6 2026 /2 200.4 37.4 118.7 356.5 TOTALS $3,173.5 $592.7 $1,880.2 $5,646.4 Note: 1/ The Regional Public Transportation Authority received a portion of the excise tax funds for transit cost which is adjusted annually by the GDP price deflator. Beginning July 1, 2005, this transfer from RARF is divided equally between MAG and the Public Transportation Fund for planning and administering the regional transportation plan. 2/ Reflects the end of the one-half cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025. Totals may not add due to rounding. Distribution Per Laws 2004, Chapter 2 (HB 2456), the sales tax extension will be distributed as follows: 1. 56.2 percent to the Regional Area Road (RARF) fund for freeways and other routes in the state highway systems, including capital expense and maintenance. 2. 10.5 percent to the RARF fund for major arterial streets and intersection improvements, including capital expenses and implementation studies. 3. 33.3 percent to the Public Transportation Fund for: (a) Capital costs, maintenance and operation of public transportation classifications. (b) Capital costs and utility relocation costs associated with a light rail public transit system. September 2014 6 PANELIST DATA VALUES Nominal Construction 30 Year Sky Harbor/Gateway Total Non-Farm Pers. Inc. Growth /1 Population Growth /1 Employment Growth /1 Mortgage Rate Phoenix CPI Growth/1 Passenger Traffic Growth Employment Growth /1 FY 2015 Median 4.66% 1.82% 4.84% 4.49% 1.86% 1.86% 2.48% Lower 10% 3.47% 1.21% 1.02% 3.86% 1.08% 0.79% 1.57% Upper 10% 6.42% 2.26% 8.07% 5.07% 2.63% 2.99% 3.40% FY 2016 Median 4.83% 2.01% 7.19% 5.02% 1.79% 1.94% 2.64% Lower 10% 4.01% 1.27% 2.27% 4.30% 1.02% 0.79% 1.80% Upper 10% 6.74% 2.53% 11.46% 5.76% 2.65% 3.16% 3.80% FY 2017 Median 4.90% 2.11% 6.98% 5.64% 2.10% 2.06% 2.55% Lower 10% 4.11% 1.36% 0.50% 4.83% 1.30% 0.91% 1.61% Upper 10% 6.85% 2.70% 11.37% 6.55% 3.00% 3.30% 4.28% Median 4.83% 2.13% 6.34% 5.87% 2.39% 2.26% 2.53% Lower 10% 3.86% 1.36% 0.26% 5.08% 1.52% 0.98% 1.38% Upper 10% 6.79% 2.80% 10.92% 6.73% 3.30% 3.47% 4.43% FY 2018 FY 2019 Median 5.13% 2.04% 5.78% 6.02% 2.49% 1.68% 2.85% Lower 10% 3.77% 1.21% 0.25% 4.95% 1.58% 0.27% 1.45% Upper 10% 7.39% 2.75% 11.13% 7.00% 3.58% 3.04% 4.43% Median Lower 10% 4.58% 2.88% 1.70% 0.82% 3.67% -3.06% 6.06% 4.81% 2.34% 1.24% 1.77% -0.06% 2.69% 1.02% Upper 10% 6.98% 2.58% 10.13% 7.30% 3.56% 3.68% 4.31% Median 4.45% 1.59% 3.58% 6.03% 2.20% 1.72% 2.54% Lower 10% Upper 10% 2.74% 6.98% 0.67% 2.55% -3.43% 10.21% 4.61% 7.43% 0.94% 3.58% -0.43% 3.97% 0.78% 4.25% FY 2024 FY 2026 All data in the above table are percentage growth rates except 30 year mortgage rate. Personal income and 30 year mortage rate are nominal rates. /1 Data for Maricopa County September 2014 7 Maricopa County Nominal Personal Income Growth 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% Growth Rate 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Maricopa County Population Growth 5.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Fiscal Year Median September 2014 Lower 10% Upper 10% 8 Maricopa County Construction Employment Growth 20.0% Growth Rate 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% 30 Year Mortgage Rate 10.0% Rate 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Fiscal Year Median September 2014 Lower 10% Upper 10% 9 Phoenix CPI Growth 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% Growth Rate 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Phoenix Sky Harbor/Gateway Airports Passenger Traffic Growth 8.0% Growth Rate 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median September 2014 Lower 10% Upper 10% 10 Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment Growth 6.0% 5.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median September 2014 Lower 10% Upper 10% 11 Maricopa County Nominal Personal Income Growth 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2024 2026 5.2% 4.3% 7.6% 5.1% 4.5% 7.5% 5.2% 4.6% 7.4% 5.9% 4.5% 7.8% 6.4% 4.3% 8.6% 5.2% 2.9% 7.5% 5.2% 2.7% 7.7% 5.0% 4.0% 6.0% 5.5% 4.2% 6.5% 6.0% 4.5% 6.5% 6.0% 4.5% 6.8% 6.2% 4.5% 7.0% 5.3% 4.0% 6.0% 5.2% 4.0% 6.0% 5.2% 3.2% 7.2% 5.7% 3.7% 7.7% 6.4% 4.4% 8.4% 6.0% 4.0% 8.0% 5.8% 2.3% 9.3% 5.3% 1.8% 8.8% 5.3% 1.8% 8.8% 5.0% 4.3% 6.3% 5.2% 4.9% 6.6% 5.5% 4.5% 6.8% 6.0% 4.3% 7.0% 6.1% 3.8% 8.5% 5.2% 2.3% 8.5% 5.0% 1.7% 8.5% 4.1% 3.6% 6.2% 4.1% 3.6% 6.2% 3.6% 3.1% 5.7% 3.1% 2.6% 5.2% 4.1% 3.6% 6.2% 4.1% 3.6% 6.2% 4.0% 3.5% 6.1% 4.1% 3.6% 6.2% 4.1% 3.6% 6.2% 3.6% 3.1% 5.7% 3.1% 2.6% 5.2% 4.1% 3.6% 6.2% 4.1% 3.6% 6.2% 4.0% 3.5% 6.1% 5.5% 3.5% 6.5% 6.0% 4.5% 7.0% 6.5% 5.0% 7.5% 6.5% 5.0% 7.5% 6.2% 4.5% 7.5% 5.5% 2.5% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 7.5% 4.1% 2.3% 6.1% 3.2% 0.0% 6.2% 2.3% 0.0% 6.3% 2.4% 0.0% 6.4% 2.4% 0.0% 6.4% 2.2% 0.0% 6.2% 2.2% 0.0% 6.2% 5.0% 3.4% 6.5% 5.5% 4.3% 7.5% 6.0% 5.1% 8.3% 6.0% 5.0% 8.5% 6.0% 4.3% 8.6% 5.5% 2.9% 7.5% 5.2% 2.7% 7.7% 4.1% 3.6% 6.2% 4.1% 3.6% 6.2% 3.6% 3.1% 5.7% 3.1% 2.6% 5.2% 4.1% 3.6% 6.2% 4.1% 3.6% 6.2% 4.0% 3.5% 6.1% 4.0% 2.4% 5.8% 4.6% 3.1% 6.5% 5.2% 3.7% 7.1% 5.1% 3.5% 7.1% 5.0% 3.2% 6.8% 3.9% 1.7% 6.1% 3.8% 1.6% 6.0% Panelist 1 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 2 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 3 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 4 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 5 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 6 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 7 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 8 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 9 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 10 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 11 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% All data in the above table are in nominal growth rates. September 2014 12 Maricopa County Population Growth 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2024 2026 1.9% 1.0% 2.3% 2.2% 1.2% 2.8% 2.5% 1.3% 3.2% 2.6% 1.5% 3.4% 2.1% 1.3% 2.8% 1.8% 0.8% 2.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.8% 2.0% 1.5% 2.5% 2.2% 1.5% 2.8% 2.4% 1.6% 2.8% 2.5% 1.6% 2.7% 2.4% 1.4% 2.6% 2.0% 1.2% 2.5% 1.9% 1.0% 2.4% 1.8% 1.0% 2.6% 2.0% 0.8% 3.2% 2.2% 0.9% 3.5% 2.2% 0.9% 3.5% 2.1% 0.8% 3.4% 1.9% 0.3% 3.6% 1.7% 0.1% 3.4% 1.9% 0.9% 2.3% 2.0% 1.3% 2.5% 2.1% 1.6% 2.6% 2.2% 1.6% 2.8% 2.2% 1.6% 2.8% 1.9% 0.9% 2.9% 1.7% 0.6% 2.8% 1.6% 1.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.2% 2.2% 1.8% 1.2% 2.4% 1.8% 1.0% 2.5% 1.2% 0.6% 2.0% 1.1% 0.5% 2.0% 1.6% 1.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.2% 2.2% 1.8% 1.2% 2.4% 1.8% 1.0% 2.5% 1.2% 0.6% 2.0% 1.1% 0.5% 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% 2.0% 1.9% 1.5% 2.3% 2.0% 1.6% 2.5% 2.1% 1.7% 2.6% 2.0% 1.5% 2.6% 1.8% 1.0% 2.5% 1.6% 0.8% 2.5% 2.3% 0.8% 3.3% 2.2% 0.8% 3.3% 2.2% 0.8% 3.3% 2.2% 0.8% 3.3% 2.1% 0.8% 3.3% 2.2% 0.8% 3.3% 2.2% 0.8% 3.3% 1.8% 1.4% 2.3% 2.1% 1.7% 2.5% 2.2% 1.8% 2.6% 2.2% 1.6% 2.7% 2.1% 1.3% 2.8% 1.8% 0.8% 2.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.8% 1.6% 1.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.2% 2.2% 1.8% 1.2% 2.4% 1.8% 1.0% 2.5% 1.2% 0.6% 2.0% 1.1% 0.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.6% 2.5% 2.2% 1.7% 2.6% 2.2% 1.6% 2.6% 2.1% 1.5% 2.5% 1.8% 1.3% 2.1% 1.7% 1.3% 2.1% Panelist 1 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 2 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 3 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 4 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 5 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 6 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 7 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 8 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 9 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 10 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 11 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. September 2014 13 Maricopa County Construction Employment Growth 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2024 2026 4.4% 2.0% 9.5% 9.7% 4.5% 12.9% 10.8% 4.5% 13.4% 7.9% 3.9% 10.5% 7.3% 3.5% 12.3% 2.8% -5.5% 11.0% 2.7% -6.5% 12.0% 4.9% 0.0% 8.0% 9.5% 4.0% 15.0% 9.5% 5.0% 15.0% 9.0% 5.0% 13.0% 8.5% 5.0% 12.0% 4.0% 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 6.0% 5.0% 0.0% 10.0% 8.0% 3.0% 13.0% 9.0% 4.0% 14.0% 8.0% 3.0% 13.0% 6.0% -0.5% 12.5% 3.0% -12.0% 18.0% 3.0% -12.0% 18.0% 6.0% 4.0% 10.0% 7.0% 5.5% 12.0% 4.5% 3.2% 12.0% 4.5% 2.5% 13.0% 4.5% -5.0% 14.0% 4.5% -7.3% 11.0% 3.5% -8.0% 10.0% 4.0% 0.0% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 10.0% 5.0% -5.0% 10.0% 4.0% -5.0% 10.0% 4.0% 0.0% 10.0% 4.0% 0.0% 10.0% 4.0% 0.0% 10.0% 4.0% 0.0% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 10.0% 5.0% -5.0% 10.0% 4.0% -5.0% 10.0% 4.0% 0.0% 10.0% 4.0% 0.0% 10.0% 4.0% 0.0% 10.0% 5.0% 3.0% 9.0% 7.5% 5.0% 12.0% 9.0% 5.0% 12.0% 9.0% 4.5% 12.0% 7.0% 0.0% 12.0% 2.5% -5.0% 10.0% 2.5% -7.0% 10.0% 5.2% -0.8% 6.2% 3.7% -2.3% 4.7% 1.3% -4.7% 2.3% 1.7% -4.3% 2.7% 2.5% -3.5% 3.5% 3.2% -2.8% 4.2% 3.2% -2.8% 4.2% 5.0% 2.0% 10.0% 10.0% 3.0% 15.0% 12.0% 3.0% 15.0% 12.0% 3.0% 15.0% 10.0% 3.0% 15.0% 2.8% 0.0% 11.0% 2.7% 0.0% 12.0% 4.0% 0.0% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 10.0% 5.0% -5.0% 10.0% 4.0% -5.0% 10.0% 4.0% 0.0% 10.0% 4.0% 0.0% 10.0% 4.0% 0.0% 10.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% Panelist 1 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 2 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 3 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 4 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 5 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 6 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 7 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 8 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 9 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 10 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 11 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. September 2014 14 30 Year Mortgage 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2024 2026 4.1% 3.7% 4.7% 4.8% 4.2% 5.8% 5.1% 4.3% 6.4% 5.1% 4.4% 6.6% 5.3% 4.2% 6.8% 5.4% 4.2% 6.8% 5.3% 3.9% 7.3% 4.5% 4.0% 5.0% 4.6% 4.2% 5.5% 5.0% 4.3% 5.7% 5.0% 4.5% 6.0% 5.5% 4.5% 6.0% 5.5% 4.5% 6.5% 5.5% 4.5% 6.5% 4.6% 3.6% 5.6% 5.3% 3.8% 6.8% 6.5% 5.0% 8.5% 6.6% 5.6% 8.1% 6.6% 5.1% 8.1% 6.7% 4.7% 8.7% 6.5% 4.5% 8.5% 4.2% 3.3% 4.2% 4.5% 3.9% 4.8% 4.8% 4.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 5.5% 6.0% 4.5% 7.5% 6.0% 4.5% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 8.0% 4.8% 4.4% 5.2% 5.4% 5.0% 5.8% 6.1% 5.6% 6.7% 6.6% 6.0% 7.2% 6.7% 5.9% 7.4% 6.6% 5.6% 7.7% 6.6% 5.3% 7.9% 4.8% 4.4% 5.2% 5.4% 5.0% 5.8% 6.1% 5.6% 6.7% 6.6% 6.0% 7.2% 6.7% 5.9% 7.4% 6.6% 5.6% 7.7% 6.6% 5.3% 7.9% 4.8% 4.4% 5.2% 5.3% 4.7% 5.9% 6.0% 5.2% 6.5% 6.2% 5.4% 6.5% 6.2% 5.4% 6.7% 6.2% 5.4% 7.0% 6.2% 5.2% 7.0% 4.1% 2.9% 5.3% 4.3% 3.1% 5.5% 4.0% 2.8% 5.2% 3.8% 2.6% 5.0% 3.5% 2.3% 4.7% 3.5% 2.3% 4.7% 3.5% 2.3% 4.7% 4.0% 3.0% 5.0% 5.0% 3.5% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 7.5% 6.5% 5.0% 7.5% 6.5% 5.0% 7.5% 7.0% 5.0% 8.0% 7.0% 5.0% 8.0% 4.8% 4.4% 5.2% 5.4% 5.0% 5.8% 6.1% 5.6% 6.7% 6.6% 6.0% 7.2% 6.7% 5.9% 7.4% 6.6% 5.6% 7.7% 6.6% 5.3% 7.9% 4.8% 4.4% 5.2% 5.4% 5.0% 5.8% 6.1% 5.6% 6.7% 6.6% 6.0% 7.2% 6.7% 5.9% 7.4% 6.5% 5.6% 7.7% 6.5% 5.3% 7.9% Panelist 1 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 2 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 3 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 4 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 5 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 6 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 7 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 8 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 9 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 10 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 11 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% All data in the above table are in nominal rates. September 2014 15 Phoenix CPI Growth 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2024 2026 2.0% 0.9% 3.2% 2.1% 0.8% 3.4% 2.3% 1.1% 3.4% 2.6% 1.2% 3.2% 2.8% 1.8% 3.8% 2.5% 1.3% 3.7% 2.3% 1.0% 3.7% 1.8% 1.0% 2.3% 1.6% 0.8% 2.3% 2.2% 1.4% 2.8% 2.7% 1.6% 3.3% 2.8% 1.8% 3.5% 2.5% 1.5% 3.5% 2.3% 1.5% 3.5% 1.6% 1.0% 2.2% 1.8% 1.0% 2.6% 1.9% 1.0% 2.8% 2.1% 1.0% 3.2% 2.5% 1.0% 4.0% 2.6% 1.0% 4.2% 2.2% 0.5% 3.9% 2.0% 1.2% 2.8% 2.1% 1.7% 3.2% 2.5% 1.5% 3.6% 2.5% 1.2% 3.7% 2.6% 1.4% 3.9% 2.6% 1.4% 4.0% 2.6% 0.6% 4.5% 1.8% 1.0% 2.6% 1.6% 0.8% 2.4% 2.2% 1.4% 3.0% 2.7% 1.9% 3.5% 2.8% 1.9% 3.8% 2.5% 1.3% 3.7% 2.3% 1.0% 3.7% 1.8% 1.0% 2.6% 1.6% 0.8% 2.4% 2.2% 1.4% 3.0% 2.7% 1.9% 3.5% 2.8% 1.9% 3.8% 2.5% 1.3% 3.7% 2.3% 1.0% 3.7% 2.0% 1.5% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 2.7% 2.0% 1.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.3% 3.0% 2.0% 1.1% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.8% 1.2% 2.8% 1.6% 1.0% 2.6% 1.5% 1.0% 2.5% 1.6% 1.1% 2.6% 1.5% 1.0% 2.5% 1.5% 1.0% 2.5% 1.5% 1.0% 2.5% 1.8% 1.0% 2.6% 2.0% 1.0% 2.5% 2.2% 1.4% 3.0% 2.7% 1.9% 3.5% 2.8% 1.9% 3.8% 2.5% 1.3% 3.7% 2.3% 1.0% 3.7% 1.8% 1.0% 2.6% 1.6% 0.8% 2.4% 2.2% 1.4% 3.0% 2.7% 1.9% 3.5% 2.8% 1.9% 3.8% 2.5% 1.3% 3.7% 2.3% 1.0% 3.7% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% Panelist 1 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 2 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 3 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 4 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 5 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 6 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 7 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 8 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 9 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 10 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 11 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. September 2014 16 Sky Harbor/Gateway Airports Passenger Traffic Growth 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2024 2026 1.2% 0.0% 3.0% 1.5% 0.3% 3.2% 2.0% 0.8% 3.6% 2.7% 0.8% 3.9% 1.8% 0.2% 3.3% 2.0% 0.0% 4.1% 2.0% -0.6% 4.6% 1.3% 0.5% 2.0% 1.4% 0.5% 2.2% 1.5% 0.8% 2.3% 2.0% 1.3% 2.5% 2.2% 1.5% 2.5% 1.8% 1.3% 2.5% 1.5% 1.0% 2.5% 2.1% 0.6% 3.6% 2.3% 0.8% 3.8% 2.4% 0.9% 3.9% 2.6% 1.1% 4.1% 1.8% 0.3% 3.3% 1.7% -0.3% 3.7% 1.7% -0.3% 3.7% 2.3% 1.3% 3.3% 2.0% 0.5% 3.5% 2.0% 0.4% 3.6% 2.0% -0.1% 4.0% 2.0% -0.1% 4.0% 2.0% -1.2% 6.0% 2.0% -1.6% 6.5% 2.3% 1.0% 3.6% 2.4% 1.1% 3.7% 2.6% 1.3% 3.8% 2.7% 1.4% 4.0% 1.8% 0.2% 3.3% 2.0% 0.0% 4.1% 2.0% -0.6% 4.6% 2.3% 1.0% 3.6% 2.4% 1.1% 3.7% 2.6% 1.3% 3.8% 1.8% 0.2% 3.3% 2.0% 0.0% 4.1% 2.0% -0.6% 4.6% 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% -0.3% 4.0% 2.0% -0.5% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 1.4% 4.0% 1.8% 0.2% 3.3% 2.0% 0.0% 4.1% 2.0% -0.6% 4.6% 2.7% 1.4% 4.0% 1.8% 0.2% 3.3% 2.0% 0.0% 4.1% 2.0% -0.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Panelist 1 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 2 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 3 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 4 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 5 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 6 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 7 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 8 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 9 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 10 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 11 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Sky Harbour Passenger Traffic Growth 2014 2015 2016 2017 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 2.80% 3.00% 3.20% 3.60% Lower 10% 0.40% 0.00% 0.30% 0.80% Median 1.70% 2.00% 2.10% 2.40% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 3.26% 3.47% 3.37% 3.94% Lower 10% 1.34% 0.53% 0.43% -0.14% Median 2.30% 2.00% 1.90% 1.90% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 2.70% 3.50% 2.40% 2.40% Lower 10% 1.30% 0.50% 0.00% 0.00% Median 2.00% 2.00% 1.20% 1.20% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Lower 10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -1.00% Median 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 3.26% 3.81% 3.72% 4.15% Lower 10% 1.34% 0.59% 0.48% -0.15% Median 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 3.26% 3.47% 3.37% 3.94% Lower 10% 1.34% 0.53% 0.43% -0.14% Median 2.50% 2.50% 2.00% 1.90% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 4.00% 4.20% 4.50% 4.60% Lower 10% 0.80% 0.60% 0.00% -0.50% Median 2.50% 2.50% 2.20% 2.00% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.50% Lower 10% 1.50% 1.30% 1.00% 1.00% Median 2.00% 2.10% 2.20% 2.00% Panelist 9 Upper 10% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% Lower 10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Median 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 3.50% 3.50% 4.00% 4.00% Lower 10% 1.50% 0.53% 0.00% -0.50% Median 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 9.56% 9.18% 9.84% 8.59% Lower 10% 1.56% 1.18% 1.84% 0.59% Median 4.56% 4.18% 4.84% 3.59% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Lower 10% 1.50% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% Median 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 2.00% 2.50% 3.50% 4.00% Lower 10% 0.50% 0.70% 1.00% 1.20% Median 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 1.10% 1.07% 1.09% 1.50% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. 2.3% 1.3% 3.5% 2.4% 1.2% 4.0% 2.5% 1.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 1.0% 3.6% 2.4% 1.1% 3.7% 2.6% 1.3% 3.8% 2.3% 1.0% 3.6% 2.4% 1.1% 3.7% 2.6% 1.3% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2018 3.90% 0.80% 2.70% 3.94% -0.14% 1.90% 2.40% 0.00% 1.20% 4.00% -5.00% 2.00% 3.94% 0.14% 1.90% 3.94% -0.14% 1.90% 4.70% -1.00% 2.00% 4.00% 1.00% 1.80% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.50% -0.50% 2.00% 8.32% 0.32% 3.32% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 4.50% 0.50% 2.50% 2.02% 2022 2026 3.90% 0.20% 2.80% 4.20% -0.40% 3.00% 4.96% -1.16% 1.90% 5.53% -1.61% 1.96% 3.40% -1.00% 1.20% 3.50% -1.60% 1.50% 4.00% -5.00% 2.00% 4.00% -5.00% 2.00% 5.48% -1.28% 2.10% 6.49% -1.89% 2.30% 4.96% -1.16% 1.90% 5.53% -3.00% 1.96% 5.00% -1.50% 2.00% 5.70% -2.00% 2.00% 4.00% 1.00% 1.80% 4.00% 1.00% 1.80% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 5.00% -1.50% 2.00% 5.50% -2.00% 1.96% 2.7% 1.4% 4.0% 2.5% 1.2% 4.2% 6.21% -1.79% 1.21% 5.63% -2.37% 0.63% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 5.00% -1.00% 2.00% 5.00% -2.00% 1.50% 1.90% 1.77% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. September 2014 17 Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment Growth 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2024 2026 2.3% 1.3% 3.7% 2.5% 1.5% 4.2% 2.5% 1.7% 5.3% 3.1% 1.7% 5.9% 3.6% 1.5% 5.7% 2.8% 0.3% 5.3% 2.7% -0.1% 5.5% 2.5% 1.7% 3.0% 2.9% 1.7% 3.5% 3.1% 1.9% 3.5% 3.1% 2.0% 3.5% 3.1% 2.0% 3.5% 2.7% 2.0% 3.2% 2.5% 1.8% 3.0% 2.4% 0.9% 3.9% 2.5% 1.0% 4.0% 2.8% 1.3% 4.3% 2.6% 1.1% 4.1% 3.1% 1.6% 4.6% 2.8% 0.3% 5.3% 2.7% 0.2% 4.2% 2.4% 1.4% 3.4% 2.6% 2.0% 4.0% 2.7% 1.8% 5.5% 3.0% 2.1% 5.5% 3.3% 1.9% 5.6% 3.3% -0.1% 5.6% 3.3% -0.7% 6.0% 2.5% 2.3% 2.7% 2.8% 2.5% 3.1% 2.2% 1.9% 3.5% 1.7% 1.3% 3.5% 2.5% 2.0% 3.5% 2.8% 2.3% 3.3% 2.7% 2.2% 3.2% 2.5% 2.3% 2.7% 2.8% 2.5% 3.1% 2.2% 1.9% 3.5% 1.7% 1.3% 3.5% 2.5% 2.0% 3.5% 2.8% 2.3% 3.3% 2.7% 2.2% 3.2% 2.8% 1.7% 3.2% 2.9% 1.7% 3.5% 3.0% 1.7% 4.0% 3.0% 1.5% 4.5% 3.0% 0.0% 4.0% 2.5% 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% -0.5% 4.0% 2.2% 0.5% 5.5% 1.7% 0.5% 5.0% 1.4% 0.5% 4.2% 1.6% 0.5% 4.4% 1.8% 0.5% 4.6% 2.1% 0.5% 4.9% 2.1% 0.5% 4.9% 2.5% 1.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.2% 3.5% 1.0% 4.2% 3.8% 0.0% 4.5% 3.5% 1.0% 4.5% 2.5% 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 2.5% 2.3% 2.7% 2.8% 2.5% 3.1% 2.2% 1.9% 3.5% 1.7% 1.3% 3.5% 2.5% 2.0% 3.5% 2.8% 2.3% 3.3% 2.7% 2.2% 3.2% 2.6% 1.4% 3.6% 2.5% 1.9% 4.1% 2.5% 2.0% 5.6% 2.5% 2.4% 5.9% 2.5% 1.5% 5.7% 2.5% 0.3% 5.3% 2.5% -0.1% 5.5% Panelist 1 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 2 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 3 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 4 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 5 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 6 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 7 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 8 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 9 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 10 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Panelist 11 Median Lower 10% Upper 10% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. September 2014 18 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY NOMINAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 15.4% 14.6% 9.7% 9.5% 12.9% 16.4% 19.1% 17.3% 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 15.1% 10.1% 8.5% 12.7% 13.3% 11.1% 9.3% 8.2% 7.7% 6.0% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 4.5% 5.4% 6.9% 8.9% 10.2% 9.7% 9.5% 10.0% 8.5% 10.8% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 7.4% 4.3% 4.4% 7.0% 10.0% 11.3% 8.1% 2.6% -2.2% 2.0% 2011 2012 2013* 2014* 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3.6% 5.1% 4.5% 4.7% FY 1973-2012 data from BEA; FY 2013*-2015 data from Phoenix Blue Chip. FY 2016-2026, ADOT staff estimates. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 25.0% Percent Change 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -5.0% Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2014 Historical Min. Max. 2.0% 5.1% -2.2% 11.3% -2.2% 19.1% Mean 4.0% 5.0% 8.9% Std. Dev. 1.2% 4.0% 4.4% 80% Range Lower Upper 2.7% 4.9% 1.6% 10.1% 4.3% 15.0% 19 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 5.7% 5.9% 6.4% 5.2% 3.0% 2.1% 3.9% 4.4% 4.9% 4.4% 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 3.0% 2.9% 3.2% 4.4% 5.3% 4.2% 4.5% 2.9% 2.6% 1.4% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 3.1% 3.4% 3.8% 4.9% 5.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% 2.9% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.4% 3.2% 2.4% 2.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0.5% 1.1% 1.5% 1.1% FY 1999 and prior: from U. S. Census Bureau. FY 2000-2013 ADOA Office of Employment and Population Statistics (EPS) estimates. *FY 2014 and after ADOA EPS projections Medium Series. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 7.0% Percent Change 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0.0% -1.0% Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2014 Historical Min. Max. 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 3.2% 0.1% 6.4% Mean 0.9% 1.4% 3.3% Std. Dev. 0.6% 1.0% 1.5% 80% Range Lower Upper 0.2% 1.4% 0.3% 2.5% 1.2% 5.2% 20 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 24.9% 21.3% 0.4% -19.3% -16.5% 14.8% 38.9% 32.7% 5.2% -6.7% -6.5% 5.4% 23.4% 20.3% 7.9% -5.8% -9.0% -8.4% -6.7% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -4.8% -1.5% 9.0% 16.8% 18.2% 12.2% 6.9% 7.5% 8.4% 5.8% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 4.1% 1.1% 0.4% 6.1% 12.8% 12.6% 1.6% -11.6% -23.8% -24.2% 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -7.2% 3.5% 5.7% 2.6% FY 1989 and prior BLS SIC not seas adj, 1990-2013 BLS NAICS not seas adj. *FY 2014 ADOT staff estimate. FY 2015 from Phx Blue Chip forecast (1st qtr 2014). FY 2016 and beyond based on ADOT staff estimates. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 50.0% 0.5 Percent Change 40.0% 0.4 30.0% 0.3 20.0% 0.2 10.0% 0.1 0.0% 0 -10.0% -0.1 2013 2014 2011 2012 2009 2010 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1996 1997 1994 1995 1993 1992 1991 1990 1978 1981 1980 1983 1982 1985 1984 1987 1986 1989 1988 1976 1979 1974 1977 -30.0% -0.3 1975 1972 -20.0% -0.2 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2014 Historical Min. Max. -24.2% 5.7% -24.2% 12.8% -24.2% 38.9% Mean -3.9% -2.8% 4.2% Std. Dev. 12.4% 13.5% 13.8% 80% Range Lower Upper -17.4% 4.8% -23.8% 12.6% -11.1% 21.1% 21 HISTORICAL DATA 30 YEAR MORTGAGE RATE HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 7.5% 7.5% 8.6% 9.4% 8.9% 8.8% 9.1% 10.3% 12.9% 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 14.6% 17.3% 14.0% 13.6% 13.5% 11.2% 9.8% 10.5% 10.6% 10.1% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 9.8% 8.8% 7.9% 7.5% 8.6% 7.6% 7.9% 7.2% 6.9% 8.1% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 7.5% 6.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.8% 6.2% 6.3% 6.2% 5.6% 4.9% 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4.6% 4.0% 3.5% 4.3% FY 1972-2013 data from Federal Reserve. FY 2014*-2026 based on Global Insight, 1st Quarter 2014, Trend Forecast. 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1972 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2014 Historical Min. Max. 3.5% 4.9% 3.5% 6.3% 3.5% 17.3% Mean 4.3% 5.1% 8.5% Std. Dev. 0.5% 1.0% 3.0% 80% Range Lower Upper 3.7% 4.8% 4.0% 6.2% 5.1% 13.4% 22 HISTORICAL DATA PHOENIX CPI GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 12.1% 11.1% 1.9% 3.7% 4.8% 3.9% 3.0% 4.2% 4.8% 5.0% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 5.6% 3.8% 3.3% 2.2% 2.2% 1.9% 2.7% 2.3% 2.5% 3.7% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 3.2% 0.6% 0.8% 2.1% 1.8% 3.3% 3.1% 3.5% 1.9% -0.8% 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1.0% 2.9% 1.8% 1.6% FY 1981-2013 from BLS. FY 2014-2026 from Moody's Analytics. *FY 2014 is an estimate. 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2014 Historical Min. Max. -0.8% 2.9% -0.8% 3.5% -0.8% 12.1% Mean 1.3% 2.0% 3.3% Std. Dev. 1.4% 1.3% 2.5% 80% Range Lower Upper -0.1% 2.5% 0.8% 3.3% 1.2% 5.0% 23 HISTORICAL DATA PHOENIX SKY HARBOR/GATEWAY AIRPORTS PASSENGER TRAFFIC GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 3.6% 8.4% 12.2% 8.4% 2.4% 5.7% 12.2% 16.1% 18.7% 5.0% 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 -2.8% 6.8% 13.9% 20.6% 24.8% 19.6% 14.8% 10.9% 8.1% 6.4% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 3.4% 0.9% 3.3% 7.7% 8.6% 8.9% 4.8% 2.2% 4.6% 6.5% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2.7% -0.7% 2.8% 5.4% 4.9% 2.4% 1.3% -1.4% -4.7% -1.1% 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4.0% 3.1% 0.2% 1.0% FY 1971-2013 data obtained from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport and combined w ith data obtained from Gatew ay Airport (FY 2004-2013). FY 2014*-2026 estimates are from Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport staff as w ell as Gateway Airport staff. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 30.0% Percent Change 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -10.0% Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2014 Historical Min. Max. -1.1% 4.0% -4.7% 4.9% Mean 1.4% 1.0% Std. Dev. 2.1% 2.9% 80% Range Lower Upper -0.6% 3.6% -1.7% 4.1% -4.7% 6.5% 6.5% -0.4% 24.8% 15.8% 24 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY TOTAL NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 5.8% 8.5% 11.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.5% 6.9% 11.1% 11.8% 6.9% 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 3.4% 1.5% 2.9% 8.6% 10.2% 6.9% 4.1% 4.7% 4.1% 2.3% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 0.9% 0.4% 3.0% 5.8% 6.9% 7.2% 6.3% 5.4% 5.0% 4.1% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2.4% 0.6% 0.8% 2.7% 5.1% 5.8% 3.5% -0.4% -5.1% -5.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -0.2% 2.0% 2.7% 2.6% FY 1971-1989 Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) SIC not seas adj , FY 1990-2013 seas adj data from BLS (NAICS). *FY 2014-2015 from ADOA EPS forecast May 2014. FY 2016-2026 ADOT staff estimates. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Percent Change 13.0% 8.0% 3.0% -2.0% -7.0% 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -12.0% Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2014 Historical Min. Max. -5.0% 2.7% -5.1% 5.8% -5.1% 11.8% Mean 0.4% 1.1% 4.1% Std. Dev. 3.2% 3.8% 3.8% 80% Range Lower Upper -3.1% 2.7% -5.0% 5.2% 0.1% 8.6% 25