MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX Forecasting Process & Results FY 2014‐2026 Financial Management Services November 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 1 Background 1 Risk Analysis Panel 2 Model Results 2 Summary 3 Supplementary Information 1. RARF Official Revenue Forecast 2. RARF Revenue Risk Analysis Results by Probability 3. RARF Official Revenue Forecast Distribution 4. Panelist Data Values 6. Panel Members Inputs by Independent Variable 7. Independent Variable Historical Values 4 5 6 7‐11 12‐18 19‐25 MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES Introduction In 1985, the voters of Maricopa County approved Proposition 300 to establish a ½ cent transportation excise (sales) tax for construction of a regional freeway system within the county. The ½ cent sales tax was approved for a period of 20 years and ended on December 31, 2005. On November 2, 2004, Maricopa County’s voters approved Proposition 400 which extended the ½ cent sales tax for another 20 years through December 31, 2025. The sales tax extension is used for construction of new freeways, widening of existing freeways and highways, improvements to the arterial street system, regional bus service and other special transportation services, and high capacity transit services such as light rail, bus rapid transit and express buses. This document contains the official forecast of expected values for the Maricopa County Transportation Excise Tax for the period FY 2014–2026 as developed by the Arizona Department of Transportation (the Department) in cooperation with the Maricopa Association of Governments and Valley Metro. Background Since 1986, the Arizona Department of Transportation (the Department) has used a comprehensive regression‐based econometric model to estimate Transportation Excise Tax revenues for Maricopa County. These revenues, which flow into the Regional Area Road Fund (RARF), are the major funding source for the Maricopa County Freeway Program. The revenue forecast is highly dependent on estimates of independent variables. In order to deal with variability between estimated and actual values, the Department introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies on probability analysis and the independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. The process results in a series of forecasts, with specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate. Enhanced forecasting accuracy was achieved in July 1996, when Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB) working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State University, incorporated economic data and independent variables which were not included in the 1986 model. In September 2005, the Department had HDR Decision Economics re‐examine the structure of the RARF modal and re‐evaluate the set of explanatory variables used in the production of the RARF revenue forecasts. Three new variables (U. S. Housing Starts, Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic and Maricopa County Total Non‐Farm Employment Growth) were added to the existing list of variables used in the RARF regression equations. The September 2010 panel members requested the Maricopa County per capita personal income variable to be in nominal dollars instead of real dollars. In September 2011, the prime interest rate variable was replaced by the 30 year mortgage rate variable and the U.S. housing starts variable was removed from the model. November 2013 1 The independent variables contained in the current model are: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Maricopa County nominal personal income growth Maricopa County population growth Maricopa County construction employment growth Phoenix consumer price index (CPI) Sky Harbor passenger traffic growth Maricopa County total non‐farm employment growth 30 year mortgage rate Risk Analysis Panel The Risk Analysis Process (RAP) relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economists to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In August 2013, a panel of fourteen economic and financial experts representing public, private, and academic sectors submitted their individual estimates of the model’s independent variables and comments on the future economic outlook. The information gathered from the panelists was input into the forecasting model to produce a series of forecasts with associated probabilities of occurrence. The panelists’ inputs are reflected in the attached tables in this report. Model Results This year‘s panel inputs produced a mean forecast of $6,130.6 million for the period FY 2014‐2026 with a compound growth rate (CGR) of 4.7 percent. The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2014‐ 2026 totals $6,128.6 million with a compound growth rate of 4.7 percent. This year’s official forecast is $22.4 million higher than last year’s official forecast. The Official Forecast result incorporates the 50 percent confidence interval growth rate amount for each year of the forecast except for FY 2014. The FY 2014 forecast of $362.0 million was developed by ADOT staff independently of the econometric model using time series techniques, and historical and projected growth rates from the model. FY 2014 Official Forecast Results (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Mean Forecast $365.9 371.9 397.1 421.9 444.7 468.5 489.9 511.2 535.5 557.9 584.3 610.1 Official Forecast $362.0 383.4 405.1 426.7 448.2 469.3 488.8 510.7 533.5 555.0 578.0 602.2 Confidence Level 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 2026/1 371.8 365.8 Total $6,130.6 $6,128.6 Average CGR 4.7% 4.7% Note: /1. Relects the end of the one‐half cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025 November 2013 2 For comparison purposes, the October 2012 and November 2013 Official Forecasts are shown below: FY 2014‐2026 Comparative Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Oct. 12 Nov. 13 Fiscal Official Official Year Forecast Forecast Difference 2014 $361.1 $362.0 $0.9 2015 381.4 383.4 2.0 2016 401.8 405.1 3.3 2017 422.9 426.7 3.8 2018 443.0 448.2 5.2 2019 464.3 469.3 4.9 2020 487.9 488.8 0.9 2021 509.3 510.7 1.4 2022 532.4 533.5 1.1 2023 554.0 555.0 1.0 2024 578.0 578.0 (0.0) 2025 602.3 602.2 (0.0) 2026/1 367.9 365.8 (2.1) Total $6,106.3 $6,128.6 $22.4 Average CGR 4.8% 4.7% Note: /1 Reflects the end of the one‐half cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025 Summary The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2014‐2026 totals $6,128.6 million, an increase of $22.4 million above the October 2012 Official Forecast. The RAP results reflect the panel members’ continued concern with Maricopa County’s slower population and job growth and that the growth rates may not return to the levels experienced before the Great Recession. Compared to last year, the panel inputs for personal income, population and employment were lower in the first few years and then came in higher in FY 2017 through FY 2022 before ending below for the last few years. The 30 Year Mortgage Rate, Phoenix CPI and Sky Harbor Traffic Growth all saw lower expected growth rates through the forecast period compared to last year’s panel inputs. Supplementary Information The remainder of this report presents supplementary information on the detail results of the RAP model and Risk Analysis Process. While the Official Forecast period is FY 2014‐2026, panel inputs were requested for FY 2014‐2018, 2022 and 2026. Data displayed for other than the requested years has been extrapolated. November 2013 3 November 2013 $172.9 32.7 31.0 36.4 38.1 12.1 18.3 $341.6 Retail Sales Contracting Utilties Restaurant and Bar Rental of Real Property Rental of Personal Property Other Total $362.0 18.7 12.6 39.7 38.6 32.0 36.6 $183.8 2014 50% $383.4 19.4 13.5 41.3 40.8 32.9 42.0 $193.5 2015 50% $405.1 20.4 14.3 43.3 43.0 34.0 47.1 $203.0 2016 50% $426.7 21.4 15.0 45.5 45.5 35.1 50.9 $213.3 2017 50% $448.2 22.4 15.7 47.8 47.8 36.3 54.3 $223.9 2018 50% Note: /1 FY 2026 totals reflect the transporttion excise tax extension expires on December 31, 2025 2013 Actual Fiscal Year Percentile $469.3 23.6 16.8 50.0 50.4 37.5 56.7 $234.3 2019 50% $488.8 24.4 17.7 52.0 53.0 38.5 59.7 $243.5 2020 50% $510.7 25.4 18.6 53.8 55.3 39.5 62.5 $255.6 2021 50% RARF Official Revenue Forecast With Category Detail and Confidence Interval by Fiscal Year (Current Dollars in Millions) $533.5 26.7 19.3 56.5 58.3 40.7 64.7 $267.3 2022 50% $555.0 27.8 20.2 59.1 60.4 41.9 66.6 $279.0 2023 50% $578.0 29.2 21.0 61.2 63.4 43.4 69.2 $290.6 2024 50% $602.2 30.7 22.0 64.0 66.6 44.7 72.0 $302.2 2025 50% $365.8 18.8 13.4 38.8 40.4 26.9 43.5 $184.0 2026 50% November 2013 $365.9 371.9 397.1 421.9 444.7 468.5 489.9 511.2 535.5 557.9 584.3 610.1 371.8 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026/1 549.5 896.1 854.3 805.7 771.0 731.6 696.1 657.6 612.5 567.8 515.0 458.2 $415.8 10% 465.6 759.9 725.9 692.2 662.9 628.2 598.8 569.2 534.4 500.9 462.7 422.0 $395.1 20% 416.8 684.2 655.8 624.2 597.5 568.1 544.3 519.8 492.7 462.7 432.4 404.7 $381.5 30% 383.1 632.6 605.2 588.3 562.1 537.4 514.8 492.7 466.2 442.4 418.3 393.2 $371.1 40% 365.8 602.2 578.0 555.0 533.5 510.7 488.8 469.3 448.2 426.7 405.1 383.4 $362.0 50% 315.3 520.1 497.6 479.6 462.4 441.8 424.9 409.4 392.7 376.5 361.4 346.1 $352.4 60% Total $6,130.6 $8,531.3 $7,417.9 $6,784.6 $6,407.4 $6,128.6 $5,380.1 /1 Totals reflect the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026, but the transportation excise tax expires December 31, 2025. Mean Year Fiscal (Current Dollars in Millions) RARF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS $4,993.9 288.0 475.7 458.8 438.5 423.5 405.8 392.4 378.7 364.0 353.0 340.6 331.7 $343.2 70% $4,566.3 258.0 425.1 409.0 396.4 382.2 367.9 355.8 344.2 333.6 326.3 318.9 315.2 $333.7 80% $4,038.4 221.1 365.2 351.2 340.8 329.6 317.7 311.2 303.9 298.1 293.8 291.0 294.0 $320.8 90% RARF OFFICIAL REVENUE FORECAST DISTRIBUTION (Current Dollars in Millions) Regional Area Road Fund (RARF) /1 Public Transportation Fiscal Freeways Arterial Streets Fund Year (56.2%) (10.5 %) (33.3%) Total 2014 $203.4 $38.0 $120.6 $362.0 2015 215.5 40.2 127.7 383.4 2016 227.7 42.5 134.9 405.1 2017 239.8 44.8 142.1 426.7 2018 251.9 47.1 149.2 448.2 2019 263.7 49.3 156.3 469.3 2020 274.7 51.3 162.8 488.8 2021 287.0 53.6 170.1 510.7 2022 299.8 56.0 177.7 533.5 2023 311.9 58.3 184.8 555.0 2024 324.8 60.7 192.5 578.0 2025 338.5 63.2 200.5 602.2 2026 /2 205.6 38.4 121.8 365.8 TOTALS $3,444.3 $643.3 $2,041.0 $6,128.6 Note: 1/ The Regional Public Transportation Authority received a portion of the excise tax funds for transit cost which is adjusted annually by the GDP price deflator. Beginning July 1, 2005, this transfer from RARF is divided equally between MAG and the Public Transportation Fund for planning and administering the regional transportation plan. 2/ Reflects the end of the one‐half cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025. Totals may not add due to rounding. Distribution Per Laws 2004, Chapter 2 (HB 2456), the sales tax extension will be distributed as follows: 1. 56.2 percent to the Regional Area Road (RARF) fund for freeways and other routes in the state highway systems, including capital expense and maintenance. 2. 10.5 percent to the RARF fund for major arterial streets and intersection improvements, including capital expenses and implementation studies. 3. 33.3 percent to the Public Transportation Fund for: (a) Capital costs, maintenance and operation of public transportation classifications. (b) Capital costs and utility relocation costs associated with a light rail public transit system. November 2013 6 PANELIST DATA VALUES Nominal Construction 30 Year Mortgage Rate Phoenix CPI Growth/1 Sky Harbor Total Non‐Farm Passenger Traffic Growth Employment Growth /1 Pers. Inc. Growth /1 Population Growth /1 Employment Growth /1 Upper 10% 7.17% 2.01% 13.79% 4.95% 2.80% 3.64% 3.47% Lower 10% 4.03% 0.91% 4.52% 3.61% 1.16% 1.01% 1.24% Median 5.50% 1.57% 8.98% 4.22% 1.95% 2.18% 2.48% Upper 10% 7.72% 2.41% 14.50% 5.62% 2.91% 3.82% 3.88% Lower 10% 4.24% 1.13% 4.54% 3.89% 1.09% 0.57% 1.54% Median 5.94% 1.90% 9.30% 4.70% 1.89% 2.18% 2.83% Upper 10% 8.08% 2.70% 14.81% 6.39% 3.10% 3.92% 4.73% Lower 10% 4.28% 1.21% 4.12% 4.16% 1.10% 0.50% 1.56% Median 6.13% 2.15% 9.34% 5.25% 1.95% 2.15% 3.23% Upper 10% 8.07% 2.86% 13.92% 7.09% 3.23% 4.06% 4.98% Lower 10% 3.99% 1.31% 2.17% 4.44% 1.15% 0.17% 1.67% Median 6.27% 2.29% 8.11% 5.63% 2.03% 2.11% 3.39% Upper 10% 8.02% 2.94% 12.35% 7.41% 3.36% 4.24% 4.82% Lower 10% 3.93% 1.31% 0.62% 4.59% 1.16% ‐0.25% 1.24% Median 6.29% 2.33% 6.12% 5.89% 2.12% 2.09% 3.14% FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2022 Upper 10% 7.66% 3.02% 11.36% 7.60% 3.66% 4.53% 4.74% Lower 10% 2.52% 0.89% ‐4.35% 4.49% 1.02% ‐1.01% 0.34% Median 5.20% 2.05% 3.26% 5.98% 2.11% 1.92% 2.57% Upper 10% 7.62% 2.89% 11.63% 7.75% 3.96% 4.78% 4.79% Lower 10% Median 2.01% 4.83% 0.64% 1.81% ‐5.51% 2.95% 4.40% 5.96% 0.88% 2.01% ‐1.53% 1.88% ‐0.14% 2.37% FY 2026 All data in the above table are percentage growth rates except 30 year mortgage rate. Personal income and 30 year mortage rate are nominal rates. /1 Data for Maricopa County November 2013 7 Maricopa County Nominal Personal Income Growth 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% Growth Rate 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Maricopa County Population Growth 5.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Fiscal Year Median November 2013 Lower 10% Upper 10% 8 Maricopa County Construction Employment Growth 20.0% Growth Rate 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% ‐5.0% ‐10.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% 30 Year Mortgage Rate 10.0% Rate 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Fiscal Year Median November 2013 Lower 10% Upper 10% 9 Phoenix CPI Growth 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% Growth Rate 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic Growth 8.0% Growth Rate 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% ‐2.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median November 2013 Lower 10% Upper 10% 10 Maricopa County Total Non‐Farm Employment Growth 6.0% 5.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% ‐1.0% ‐2.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median November 2013 Lower 10% Upper 10% 11 Maricopa County Nominal Personal Income Growth Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2026 7.40% 5.20% 6.50% 8.60% 5.30% 7.20% 8.50% 5.50% 7.10% 8.40% 5.60% 7.20% 8.80% 5.50% 7.50% 8.50% 5.00% 6.90% 8.80% 4.40% 6.70% 7.50% 4.00% 6.00% 7.70% 4.50% 6.50% 8.00% 5.10% 6.80% 8.10% 5.30% 7.00% 7.50% 5.30% 6.80% 7.00% 5.20% 6.00% 6.50% 4.50% 5.50% 8.40% 4.00% 6.20% 9.00% 4.00% 6.50% 9.80% 4.00% 6.90% 9.00% 2.00% 7.30% 9.00% 2.00% 6.90% 9.00% 2.00% 5.40% 9.00% 2.00% 5.20% 7.00% 3.70% 5.60% 7.20% 4.20% 6.20% 8.00% 4.20% 6.60% 8.50% 4.00% 6.90% 8.40% 3.80% 6.80% 7.40% 2.60% 5.60% 7.20% 2.30% 5.00% 6.86% 3.84% 5.35% 7.34% 4.34% 5.84% 7.59% 4.63% 6.11% 8.08% 4.97% 6.53% 8.33% 5.00% 6.67% 8.42% 2.25% 5.34% 8.88% 1.72% 5.30% 7.70% 4.30% 5.70% 8.30% 3.50% 6.00% 8.70% 2.00% 5.50% 8.80% 0.00% 5.50% 8.50% 0.00% 5.50% 8.52% 0.00% 4.50% 8.71% 0.00% 4.00% 7.30% 2.50% 5.50% 8.10% 2.80% 6.20% 8.40% 3.50% 6.70% 8.70% 3.50% 6.70% 8.90% 4.00% 6.90% 8.70% 1.40% 5.30% 8.80% 0.50% 5.30% 7.00% 5.00% 5.50% 7.50% 5.00% 5.70% 8.00% 5.00% 6.00% 8.50% 5.00% 6.50% 8.50% 5.00% 7.00% 8.00% 4.50% 6.00% 8.00% 4.00% 5.00% 7.00% 4.30% 5.00% 8.30% 4.90% 5.70% 8.70% 5.30% 6.20% 8.80% 5.40% 6.70% 8.50% 5.10% 6.70% 8.50% 2.30% 5.00% 8.70% 1.70% 4.70% 7.50% 4.50% 6.20% 8.00% 5.20% 6.40% 8.50% 5.50% 6.60% 8.50% 5.50% 6.50% 8.50% 5.00% 6.50% 8.50% 2.50% 5.50% 8.00% 1.00% 5.00% 6.10% 2.60% 4.60% 5.87% 2.37% 4.37% 4.86% 1.36% 3.36% 3.60% 0.60% 2.10% 3.37% 0.37% 1.87% 3.00% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 0.00% 1.50% 6.50% 3.97% 5.00% 7.00% 4.00% 5.00% 8.03% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 4.00% 6.50% 8.01% 4.00% 6.50% 7.00% 3.00% 5.00% 6.50% 2.00% 4.80% 7.00% 4.50% 5.50% 7.50% 5.00% 6.50% 8.00% 5.50% 6.80% 8.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 6.00% 7.00% 7.00% 2.00% 6.00% 7.00% 2.00% 5.00% 4.30% 5.00% 5.20% 5.30% 5.40% 4.80% 4.60% All data in the above table are in nominal growth rates. November 2013 12 Maricopa County Population Growth Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2026 2.10% 0.85% 1.60% 2.30% 1.04% 1.90% 2.80% 1.20% 2.20% 3.15% 1.34% 2.45% 3.35% 1.50% 2.60% 3.00% 1.00% 2.20% 3.00% 1.00% 1.95% 1.80% 1.30% 1.60% 2.20% 1.30% 1.80% 2.30% 1.40% 2.00% 2.30% 1.50% 2.00% 2.40% 1.40% 2.10% 2.30% 1.30% 2.00% 2.10% 1.20% 1.80% 2.00% 1.00% 1.50% 2.60% 1.00% 1.80% 3.40% 1.00% 2.20% 3.60% 1.00% 2.30% 3.60% 1.00% 2.30% 3.80% 0.50% 1.90% 3.40% 0.50% 1.70% 1.70% 0.90% 1.50% 2.40% 1.10% 2.00% 2.60% 1.30% 2.30% 2.80% 1.50% 2.50% 2.80% 1.50% 2.50% 2.70% 0.60% 2.20% 2.60% 0.50% 1.60% 1.42% 0.70% 1.06% 1.60% 0.93% 1.26% 1.76% 1.10% 1.43% 2.35% 1.35% 1.85% 2.64% 1.51% 2.08% 2.95% 0.97% 1.96% 2.93% 0.66% 1.79% 1.88% 0.92% 1.40% 2.28% 1.50% 1.80% 2.58% 1.00% 2.10% 2.80% 1.00% 2.20% 2.80% 1.00% 2.00% 2.86% 0.94% 1.90% 2.78% 0.62% 1.70% 2.20% 0.90% 1.60% 2.70% 1.00% 1.90% 2.90% 1.50% 2.30% 3.10% 1.50% 2.30% 3.20% 1.60% 2.40% 3.80% 1.00% 2.20% 3.90% 0.50% 1.90% 2.20% 1.00% 1.80% 2.40% 1.00% 2.00% 2.60% 1.00% 2.20% 2.60% 1.00% 2.20% 2.60% 1.00% 2.20% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 2.10% 0.90% 1.50% 2.50% 1.30% 2.00% 2.80% 1.60% 2.30% 3.00% 1.60% 2.50% 3.10% 1.60% 2.60% 3.50% 0.90% 2.40% 3.50% 0.40% 2.00% 1.80% 1.00% 1.50% 2.30% 1.30% 1.80% 2.60% 1.50% 2.20% 2.60% 1.50% 2.20% 2.60% 1.50% 2.20% 2.60% 1.30% 2.00% 2.20% 0.50% 1.50% 2.93% 0.63% 2.43% 3.28% 0.98% 2.78% 3.15% 0.85% 2.65% 3.13% 0.83% 2.63% 3.16% 0.86% 2.66% 2.70% 0.40% 2.20% 2.70% 0.40% 2.20% 2.00% 0.73% 1.50% 2.50% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.30% 3.00% 1.53% 2.50% 3.00% 1.00% 2.50% 3.00% 0.67% 1.80% 2.70% 0.29% 1.60% 2.00% 1.00% 1.50% 2.30% 1.20% 1.70% 2.60% 1.30% 1.90% 2.80% 1.40% 2.20% 3.00% 1.50% 2.30% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 2.80% 0.80% 1.80% 1.43% 1.85% 2.08% 2.21% 2.16% 1.87% 1.73% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. November 2013 13 Maricopa County Construction Employment Growth 2014 Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2026 11.80% 12.90% 13.40% 10.50% 12.30% 15.30% 15.40% 4.10% 4.50% 4.50% 3.90% 3.50% ‐1.00% ‐1.80% 8.20% 9.70% 10.80% 7.90% 7.30% 6.30% 6.10% 15.00% 12.50% 12.00% 11.00% 10.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 5.00% 4.00% 12.50% 10.00% 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 4.00% 1.00% 3.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.50% 22.00% 15.80% 18.00% 20.00% 16.60% 18.60% 18.60% 4.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% ‐2.00% ‐12.00% ‐12.00% 13.00% 10.40% 11.00% 11.50% 7.30% 3.30% 3.30% 12.00% 15.00% 15.00% 18.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 4.00% 0.00% 0.00% ‐5.00% ‐5.00% ‐5.00% ‐5.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 7.50% 2.00% 2.00% 14.79% 17.68% 17.16% 12.71% 4.34% 5.86% 4.88% 3.31% 9.56% 11.77% 11.02% 8.01% 7.18% 1.28% 4.23% 5.74% 10.28% ‐3.40% ‐6.27% 1.17% 2.00% 15.77% 16.67% 15.57% 15.07% 13.57% 12.26% 13.85% 4.63% 5.53% 4.43% ‐3.00% ‐2.50% ‐7.26% ‐8.45% 10.20% 8.00% 7.00% 7.00% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 16.00% 18.00% 19.00% 16.00% 15.00% 17.00% 18.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 0.00% ‐10.00% ‐18.00% 9.00% 10.00% 10.00% 9.00% 7.00% 4.00% 3.50% 12.00% 4.00% 8.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 10.00% 4.50% 5.00% 4.50% 0.00% 9.00% 10.00% 9.00% 5.00% 8.00% 1.00% 4.00% 6.00% 1.00% 3.00% 15.80% 16.70% 15.60% 15.10% 13.60% 12.30% 13.80% 4.60% 5.50% 4.40% 3.90% 2.40% ‐7.30% ‐8.40% 10.20% 11.10% 10.00% 9.50% 8.00% 2.50% 2.70% 16.00% 17.00% 18.00% 16.00% 15.00% 12.00% 12.00% 8.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% ‐10.00% ‐10.00% 12.00% 15.00% 15.00% 12.00% 10.00% 2.50% 2.50% 9.56% ‐0.44% 4.56% 8.32% ‐1.68% 3.32% 7.43% ‐2.57% 2.43% 6.25% ‐3.75% 1.25% 10.00% 12.00% 13.00% 13.00% 10.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 8.00% 10.00% 10.00% 7.50% 6.50% 5.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 8.50% 4.50% 7.50% 5.00% 9.18% ‐0.82% 4.18% 9.84% ‐0.16% 4.84% 8.59% ‐1.41% 3.59% 10.00% 11.00% 10.00% 5.00% 5.00% 4.00% 8.00% 8.50% 7.00% 5.00% 4.54% 4.54% 9.00% 3.00% 5.00% 4.54% 10.00% 10.00% ‐2.00% ‐2.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.50% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. November 2013 14 30 Year Mortgage Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2026 4.30% 3.30% 3.80% 4.70% 3.70% 4.10% 5.80% 4.20% 4.80% 6.40% 4.30% 5.10% 6.60% 4.40% 5.10% 6.80% 4.20% 5.40% 7.30% 3.90% 5.30% 4.50% 3.75% 4.00% 5.00% 4.00% 4.30% 6.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 4.50% 5.25% 6.50% 4.50% 5.50% 6.50% 4.50% 5.50% 6.50% 4.50% 5.50% 6.00% 4.00% 5.00% 8.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 4.00% 6.50% 8.00% 4.00% 6.50% 7.30% 5.90% 6.60% 7.60% 5.80% 6.70% 9.00% 5.00% 6.50% 5.00% 3.50% 4.00% 6.00% 4.00% 4.50% 6.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.50% 4.00% 5.50% 7.00% 4.00% 5.50% 7.50% 4.00% 5.50% 7.00% 4.00% 5.50% 4.25% 3.41% 3.83% 4.97% 4.11% 4.54% 5.93% 5.07% 5.50% 6.82% 5.59% 6.21% 7.01% 5.65% 6.33% 7.19% 5.47% 6.33% 7.29% 5.38% 6.33% 5.50% 3.75% 4.50% 6.00% 3.90% 4.75% 7.00% 4.00% 5.00% 8.00% 4.50% 5.50% 9.00% 4.00% 6.50% 9.00% 3.50% 6.50% 9.00% 3.50% 6.50% 5.00% 3.50% 4.50% 5.90% 3.40% 4.70% 6.80% 3.30% 5.00% 7.50% 3.30% 5.00% 8.00% 3.40% 5.10% 8.50% 3.30% 5.30% 9.00% 3.20% 5.30% 5.00% 3.50% 4.00% 5.00% 3.50% 4.20% 6.00% 3.50% 4.60% 6.50% 3.50% 4.60% 7.00% 3.50% 4.60% 8.00% 3.50% 5.50% 8.00% 4.00% 6.00% 4.50% 3.30% 4.00% 5.00% 3.90% 4.50% 5.60% 4.00% 5.00% 6.50% 4.50% 5.50% 7.00% 4.50% 6.00% 7.50% 4.50% 6.00% 8.00% 4.50% 6.00% 4.20% 3.50% 3.70% 4.70% 3.90% 4.20% 5.60% 4.70% 5.00% 6.50% 5.50% 6.00% 7.00% 5.60% 6.50% 7.20% 5.60% 6.50% 7.20% 5.70% 6.50% 6.01% 3.61% 4.81% 6.41% 4.01% 5.21% 6.90% 4.50% 5.70% 7.48% 5.08% 6.28% 8.08% 5.68% 6.88% 7.20% 4.80% 6.00% 7.20% 4.80% 6.00% 5.00% 3.50% 4.00% 6.00% 3.50% 5.00% 7.50% 4.00% 5.50% 5.10% 4.30% 4.70% 5.40% 4.70% 5.10% 5.90% 4.80% 5.60% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 4.00% 4.00% 5.00% 5.00% 6.00% 6.50% 7.50% 7.50% 6.00% 4.90% 5.70% 5.90% 4.50% 5.50% 5.80% 4.20% 5.00% 5.30% 3.70% 4.50% Not Provided All data in the above table are in nominal rates. November 2013 15 Phoenix CPI Growth Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2026 2.90% 0.40% 1.90% 3.20% 0.90% 2.00% 3.40% 0.80% 2.10% 3.40% 1.10% 2.30% 3.20% 1.20% 2.60% 3.50% 1.10% 2.40% 3.70% 1.00% 2.30% 2.60% 1.20% 2.00% 2.60% 1.00% 2.00% 2.60% 1.00% 2.00% 2.80% 1.00% 2.10% 3.00% 1.00% 2.20% 3.20% 1.00% 2.30% 3.20% 1.00% 2.30% 2.60% 1.00% 1.80% 2.20% 1.00% 1.60% 2.60% 1.00% 1.80% 2.80% 1.00% 1.90% 3.20% 1.00% 2.10% 4.20% 1.00% 2.60% 3.40% 1.00% 2.20% 3.00% 1.50% 2.20% 3.00% 1.40% 1.80% 3.00% 1.40% 1.90% 3.00% 1.50% 2.20% 3.20% 1.50% 2.50% 3.50% 1.20% 2.50% 4.00% 1.20% 2.20% 1.67% 0.70% 1.19% 2.28% 0.75% 1.52% 2.85% 1.01% 1.93% 2.82% 1.19% 2.01% 2.85% 1.31% 2.08% 3.10% 1.13% 2.11% 3.63% 0.55% 2.09% 2.81% 1.19% 2.00% 3.00% 0.79% 1.60% 3.00% 0.89% 1.70% 3.50% 1.19% 2.00% 3.50% 1.39% 2.20% 4.00% 1.38% 2.60% 4.50% 0.58% 2.20% 2.90% 1.40% 2.00% 2.70% 0.80% 1.80% 3.00% 0.90% 1.80% 3.40% 0.80% 1.90% 3.80% 0.60% 2.00% 4.40% 0.40% 1.60% 6.50% 0.20% 1.60% 3.00% 1.50% 2.00% 4.00% 1.50% 2.00% 5.00% 1.50% 2.00% 5.00% 1.50% 2.20% 5.00% 1.50% 2.20% 6.00% 1.50% 2.50% 6.00% 1.50% 2.50% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.50% 1.00% 2.00% 3.50% 1.00% 2.00% 4.00% 1.00% 2.00% 4.00% 1.00% 2.00% 2.50% 1.00% 1.70% 2.50% 1.00% 1.70% 2.51% 1.00% 1.70% 2.70% 1.20% 1.80% 2.90% 1.20% 1.90% 3.20% 1.00% 2.00% 3.50% 1.00% 2.00% 3.96% 1.66% 2.66% 3.81% 1.51% 2.51% 3.59% 1.29% 2.29% 3.30% 1.00% 2.00% 3.20% 0.90% 1.90% 2.30% 0.00% 1.00% 2.30% 0.00% 1.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.50% 1.00% 2.00% 3.50% 1.00% 2.00% 4.00% 1.00% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.60% 1.50% 1.90% 2.70% 1.50% 2.00% 2.80% 1.50% 2.10% 2.80% 1.50% 2.20% 2.70% 1.50% 2.10% 2.70% 1.40% 1.80% 1.80% 2.05% 2.12% 1.92% 1.85% 1.89% 1.89% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. November 2013 16 Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic Growth Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2026 2.80% 0.40% 1.70% 3.00% 0.00% 2.00% 3.20% 0.30% 2.10% 3.60% 0.80% 2.40% 3.90% 0.80% 2.70% 3.90% 0.20% 2.80% 4.20% ‐0.40% 3.00% 3.26% 1.34% 2.30% 3.47% 0.53% 2.00% 3.37% 0.43% 1.90% 3.94% ‐0.14% 1.90% 3.94% ‐0.14% 1.90% 4.96% ‐1.16% 1.90% 5.53% ‐1.61% 1.96% 2.70% 1.30% 2.00% 3.50% 0.50% 2.00% 2.40% 0.00% 1.20% 2.40% 0.00% 1.20% 2.40% 0.00% 1.20% 3.40% ‐1.00% 1.20% 3.50% ‐1.60% 1.50% 3.00% 0.00% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Sky Harbour Passenger Traffic Growth ‐1.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 4.00% ‐5.00% 2.00% 4.00% ‐5.00% 2.00% 4.00% ‐5.00% 2.00% 3.26% 1.34% 2.30% 3.81% 0.59% 2.20% 3.72% 0.48% 2.10% 3.94% 0.14% 1.90% 5.48% ‐1.28% 2.10% 6.49% ‐1.89% 2.30% 3.26% 1.34% 2.50% 3.47% 0.53% 2.50% 3.37% 0.43% 2.00% 3.94% ‐0.14% 1.90% 3.94% ‐0.14% 1.90% 4.96% ‐1.16% 1.90% 5.53% ‐3.00% 1.96% 4.00% 0.80% 2.50% 4.20% 0.60% 2.50% 4.50% 0.00% 2.20% 4.60% ‐0.50% 2.00% 4.70% ‐1.00% 2.00% 5.00% ‐1.50% 2.00% 5.70% ‐2.00% 2.00% 4.00% 1.00% 1.80% 4.00% 1.00% 1.80% 4.00% 1.00% 1.80% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 2014 2015 2016 2017 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 2.80% 3.00% 3.20% 3.60% Lower 10% 0.40% 0.00% 0.30% 0.80% Median 1.70% 2.00% 2.10% 2.40% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 3.26% 3.47% 3.37% 3.94% Lower 10% 1.34% 0.53% 0.43% ‐0.14% Median 2.30% 2.00% 1.90% 1.90% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 2.70% 3.50% 2.40% 2.40% Lower 10% 1.30% 0.50% 0.00% 0.00% Median 2.00% 2.00% 1.20% 1.20% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Lower 10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% ‐1.00% Median 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 3.26% 3.81% 3.72% 4.15% Lower 10% 1.34% 0.59% 0.48% ‐0.15% Median 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 3.26% 3.47% 3.37% 3.94% Lower 10% 1.34% 0.53% 0.43% ‐0.14% Median 2.50% 2.50% 2.00% 1.90% Panelist 7 4.00% 4.20% 4.50% 4.60% Upper 10% Lower 10% 0.80% 0.60% 0.00% ‐0.50% Median 2.50% 2.50% 2.20% 2.00% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.50% Lower 10% 1.50% 1.30% 1.00% 1.00% Median 2.00% 2.10% 2.20% 2.00% Panelist 9 Upper 10% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% Lower 10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Median 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 3.50% 3.50% 4.00% 4.00% Lower 10% 1.50% 0.53% 0.00% ‐0.50% Median 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 9.56% 9.18% 9.84% 8.59% Lower 10% 1.56% 1.18% 1.84% 0.59% Median 4.56% 4.18% 4.84% 3.59% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Lower 10% 1.50% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% Median 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 2.00% 2.50% 3.50% 4.00% Lower 10% 0.50% 0.70% 1.00% 1.20% Median 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 1.10% 1.07% 1.09% 1.50% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. 2018 2022 2026 3.90% 0.80% 2.70% 3.90% 0.20% 2.80% 4.20% ‐0.40% 3.00% 4.15% ‐0.15% 2.00% 3.94% ‐0.14% 1.90% 4.96% ‐1.16% 1.90% 5.53% ‐1.61% 1.96% 2.40% 0.00% 1.20% 3.40% ‐1.00% 1.20% 3.50% ‐1.60% 1.50% 4.00% ‐5.00% 2.00% 4.00% ‐5.00% 2.00% 4.00% ‐5.00% 2.00% 3.94% 0.14% 1.90% 5.48% ‐1.28% 2.10% 6.49% ‐1.89% 2.30% 4.96% ‐1.16% 1.90% 5.53% ‐3.00% 1.96% 3.94% ‐0.14% 1.90% 4.70% ‐1.00% 2.00% 5.00% ‐1.50% 2.00% 5.70% ‐2.00% 2.00% 4.00% 1.00% 1.80% 4.00% 1.00% 1.80% 4.00% 1.00% 1.80% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 5.00% ‐1.50% 2.00% 5.50% ‐2.00% 1.96% 6.21% ‐1.79% 1.21% 5.63% ‐2.37% 0.63% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 5.00% ‐1.00% 2.00% 5.00% ‐2.00% 1.50% 1.90% 1.77% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.50% 2.00% 3.00% 1.30% 2.10% 3.00% 1.00% 2.20% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 3.50% 1.50% 2.00% 3.50% 0.53% 2.00% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% ‐0.50% 2.00% 4.50% ‐0.50% 2.00% 5.00% ‐1.50% 2.00% 5.50% ‐2.00% 1.96% 9.56% 1.56% 4.56% 9.18% 1.18% 4.18% 9.84% 1.84% 4.84% 8.59% 0.59% 3.59% 8.32% 0.32% 3.32% 6.21% ‐1.79% 1.21% 5.63% ‐2.37% 0.63% 3.00% 1.50% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 2.00% 0.50% 1.50% 2.50% 0.70% 2.00% 3.50% 1.00% 2.50% 4.00% 1.20% 3.00% 4.50% 0.50% 2.50% 5.00% ‐1.00% 2.00% 5.00% ‐2.00% 1.50% 1.10% 1.07% 1.09% 1.50% 2.02% 1.90% 1.77% 4.50% ‐0.50% 2.00% 8.32% 0.32% 3.32% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 4.50% 0.50% 2.50% 2.02% 3.50% 1.00% 2.00% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. November 2013 17 Maricopa County Total Non‐Farm Employment Growth Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2022 2026 3.10% 1.00% 2.40% 3.70% 1.30% 3.10% 4.20% 1.50% 3.20% 5.30% 1.70% 3.30% 5.85% 1.70% 3.60% 6.00% 0.90% 3.40% 6.40% 0.80% 3.50% 3.50% 1.40% 2.40% 4.00% 1.80% 2.80% 4.50% 2.00% 3.50% 4.00% 2.00% 3.80% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 3.70% 1.80% 2.70% 3.50% 1.50% 2.50% 4.80% 1.00% 2.90% 4.40% 1.00% 3.00% 4.50% 1.00% 3.00% 4.50% 1.00% 3.20% 4.50% 1.00% 3.20% 4.50% 0.50% 2.80% 4.50% 0.50% 2.70% 3.40% 1.50% 2.60% 4.00% 1.90% 3.20% 4.70% 2.10% 3.70% 5.00% 2.00% 4.00% 4.30% 1.50% 3.80% 4.00% 1.00% 2.90% 4.00% 0.20% 2.60% 3.91% 1.65% 2.78% 4.45% 2.26% 3.35% 5.53% 1.77% 3.65% 4.89% 1.73% 3.31% 4.30% 1.42% 2.86% 4.06% ‐0.10% 1.98% 4.49% ‐0.53% 1.98% 3.38% 1.42% 2.40% 3.98% 2.02% 3.00% 5.50% 1.84% 3.50% 6.00% 2.14% 4.00% 6.00% 1.94% 3.50% 6.00% ‐0.14% 2.50% 6.00% ‐0.73% 2.20% 3.00% 1.20% 2.40% 4.20% 1.60% 2.80% 5.10% 1.40% 3.50% 5.30% 1.80% 3.80% 5.60% 1.60% 3.50% 5.80% 1.00% 3.10% 5.90% ‐0.40% 2.80% 3.00% 2.00% 2.40% 3.20% 2.00% 2.60% 3.00% 2.00% 2.80% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 2.00% 2.80% 4.00% 1.50% 2.50% 4.00% 1.50% 2.50% 3.40% 1.40% 2.40% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 5.80% 1.80% 3.50% 6.10% 2.10% 3.60% 5.90% 1.90% 3.70% 5.70% ‐0.10% 3.00% 6.10% ‐0.70% 3.00% 3.50% 1.50% 2.50% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 5.50% 2.00% 3.50% 6.00% 2.00% 4.00% 5.50% ‐1.50% 4.00% 5.50% ‐0.50% 3.00% 5.00% ‐1.00% 2.50% 4.18% ‐0.62% 2.68% 3.59% ‐1.21% 2.09% 3.92% ‐0.88% 2.42% 3.29% ‐0.71% 1.79% 3.16% ‐0.84% 1.66% 2.71% ‐0.79% 1.21% 2.13% ‐0.77% 0.63% 2.95% 1.05% 2.00% 3.55% 1.65% 2.60% 4.70% 1.90% 3.30% 5.00% 2.20% 3.60% 4.60% 1.80% 3.20% 4.60% 0.40% 2.50% 4.75% ‐0.15% 2.30% 3.00% 1.60% 2.40% 3.40% 1.70% 2.60% 4.50% 1.80% 3.00% 5.30% 1.80% 3.50% 5.00% 1.60% 3.00% 5.00% ‐1.00% 2.40% 5.50% ‐2.00% 2.20% 2.40% 2.50% 2.60% 2.50% 2.08% 1.92% 1.80% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. November 2013 18 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY NOMINAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 15.6% 14.9% 9.7% 9.8% 13.5% 16.7% 19.5% 17.7% 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 15.3% 10.1% 8.4% 12.8% 13.1% 10.7% 9.0% 8.0% 7.4% 5.9% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 4.8% 5.6% 6.7% 9.1% 10.4% 9.7% 9.5% 10.1% 8.8% 10.8% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 8.0% 4.5% 4.4% 7.1% 10.0% 10.7% 7.7% 3.8% ‐2.2% 2.0% 2011 2012 2013* 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3.7% 4.8% 4.9% FY 1973‐2011 data from BEA; FY 2012‐2013 data from Phoenix Blue Chip. FY 2014‐2026, ADOT staff estimates. Data include inflation rate. HISTORICAL DATA ‐ GRAPHED 25.0% Percent Change 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 -5.0% 1973 0.0% Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA ‐ ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2013 Historical Min. Max. ‐2.2% 4.9% ‐2.2% 10.7% ‐2.2% 19.5% Mean 2.6% 5.3% 9.2% Std. Dev. 3.0% 3.9% 4.5% 80% Range Lower Upper ‐0.5% 4.9% 1.6% 10.1% 4.3% 15.4% 19 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 6.4% 5.2% 3.0% 2.1% 3.9% 4.4% 4.9% 4.4% 3.0% 2.9% 3.2% 4.4% 5.3% 4.2% 4.5% 2.9% 2.6% 1.4% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 3.1% 3.4% 3.8% 4.9% 5.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% 2.9% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.4% 3.2% 2.4% 2.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0.5% 1.1% 1.3% FY 1973‐2011 from U. S. Census Bureau. FY 2012 and after from ADOA Office of Employment and Population Statistics estimates. HISTORICAL DATA ‐ GRAPHED 7.0% Percent Change 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 -1.0% 1973 0.0% Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA ‐ ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2013 Historical Min. Max. 0.1% 1.3% 0.1% 3.4% 0.1% 6.4% Mean 0.6% 1.6% 3.2% Std. Dev. 0.5% 1.2% 1.4% 80% Range Lower Upper 0.2% 1.2% 0.3% 3.2% 1.3% 4.9% 20 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 0.4% ‐19.3% ‐16.5% 14.8% 38.9% 32.7% 5.2% ‐6.7% ‐6.5% 5.4% 23.4% 20.3% 7.9% ‐5.8% ‐9.0% ‐8.4% ‐7.5% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 ‐4.9% ‐0.5% 9.0% 16.8% 18.2% 12.2% 6.9% 7.5% 8.4% 5.8% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 4.1% 1.1% 0.4% 6.1% 12.8% 12.6% 1.6% ‐11.6% ‐23.8% ‐24.2% 2011 2012 2013* 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ‐7.2% 3.3% 6.9% FY 2012 and prior from BEA. FY 2013 and 2014 from Phoenix Blue Chip. 2015 and after based on ADOT staff estimates. HISTORICAL DATA ‐ GRAPHED 50.0% 0.5 Percent Change 40.0% 0.4 30.0% 0.3 20.0% 0.2 10.0% 0.1 0.0% 0 -10.0% -0.1 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 -30.0% -0.3 1975 -20.0% -0.2 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA ‐ ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2013 Historical Min. Max. ‐24.2% 6.9% ‐24.2% 12.8% ‐24.2% 38.9% Mean ‐9.0% ‐2.4% 3.3% Std. Dev. 14.6% 13.8% 13.7% 80% Range Lower Upper ‐24.0% 5.4% ‐23.8% 12.6% ‐12.1% 18.4% 21 HISTORICAL DATA 30 YEAR MORTGAGE RATE HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 7.5% 7.5% 8.6% 9.4% 8.9% 8.8% 9.1% 10.3% 12.9% 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 14.6% 17.3% 14.0% 13.6% 13.5% 11.2% 9.8% 10.5% 10.6% 10.1% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 9.8% 8.8% 7.9% 7.5% 8.6% 7.6% 7.9% 7.2% 6.9% 8.1% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 7.5% 6.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.8% 6.2% 6.3% 6.2% 5.6% 4.9% 2011 2012 2013* 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4.6% 4.0% 3.5% FY 1973‐2012 data from Federal Reserve. FY 2013*‐2026 based on Global Insight, 1st Quarter 2013, Trend Forecast. * Estimate 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1973 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA ‐ GRAPHED Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA ‐ ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2013 Historical Min. Max. 3.5% 5.6% 3.5% 6.3% 3.5% 17.3% Mean 4.5% 5.3% 8.6% Std. Dev. 0.8% 1.0% 3.0% 80% Range Lower Upper 3.7% 5.3% 4.0% 6.2% 5.6% 13.4% 22 HISTORICAL DATA PHOENIX CPI GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 12.1% 11.1% 1.9% 3.7% 4.8% 3.9% 3.0% 4.2% 4.8% 5.0% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 5.6% 3.8% 3.3% 2.2% 2.2% 1.9% 2.7% 2.3% 2.5% 3.7% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 3.2% 0.6% 0.8% 2.1% 1.8% 3.3% 3.1% 3.5% 1.9% ‐0.8% 2011 2012 2013* 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1.0% 2.9% 2.2% FY 1981‐2012 from BLS. FY 2013‐2026 from Moody's Analytics. 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 1981 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA ‐ GRAPHED Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA ‐ ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2013 Historical Min. Max. ‐0.8% 2.9% ‐0.8% 3.5% ‐0.8% 12.1% Mean 1.4% 2.1% 3.3% Std. Dev. 1.5% 1.3% 2.5% 80% Range Lower Upper ‐0.1% 2.6% 0.8% 3.3% 1.2% 5.0% 23 HISTORICAL DATA SKY HARBOR PASSENGER TRAFFIC GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 8.4% 12.2% 8.4% 2.4% 5.7% 12.2% 16.1% 18.7% 5.0% 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 ‐2.8% 6.8% 13.9% 20.6% 24.8% 19.6% 14.8% 10.9% 8.1% 6.4% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 3.4% 0.9% 3.3% 7.7% 8.6% 8.9% 4.8% 2.2% 4.6% 6.5% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2.7% ‐0.7% 2.8% 5.4% 4.9% 2.4% 1.2% ‐1.8% ‐5.3% ‐1.7% 2011 2012 2013* 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3.6% 2.4% 1.0% FY 1972‐2012 data obtained from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. FY 2013*‐2026 estimates are from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport staff. HISTORICAL DATA ‐ GRAPHED 30.0% Percent Change 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 -10.0% Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA ‐ ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2013 Historical Min. Max. ‐5.3% 3.6% ‐5.3% 5.4% ‐5.3% 24.8% Mean 0.0% 1.2% Std. Dev. 3.6% 3.3% 80% Range Lower Upper ‐3.9% 3.1% ‐2.2% 5.0% 6.7% 6.7% ‐0.5% 16.0% 24 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY TOTAL NON‐FARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 8.5% 11.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.5% 6.9% 11.1% 11.8% 6.9% 3.4% 1.5% 2.9% 8.6% 10.2% 6.9% 4.1% 4.7% 4.1% 2.3% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 0.9% 0.4% 3.0% 5.8% 6.9% 7.2% 6.3% 5.4% 5.0% 4.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2.4% 0.6% 6.0% 7.5% 4.6% 5.3% 3.2% ‐0.4% ‐4.8% ‐4.6% 2011 2012 2013* 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ‐0.2% 1.8% 2.3% FY 1972‐2012 data from Bureau of Labor Statistics. FY 2013‐2014 from ADOA, Arizona Workforce dated May 9, 2013. FY 2015‐2026 ADOT staff estimates. HISTORICAL DATA ‐ GRAPHED Percent Change 13.0% 8.0% 3.0% -2.0% -7.0% 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 -12.0% Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA ‐ ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2013 Historical Min. Max. ‐4.8% 2.3% ‐4.8% 7.5% ‐4.8% 11.8% Mean ‐1.1% 1.5% 4.3% Std. Dev. 3.4% 4.0% 3.8% 80% Range Lower Upper ‐4.7% 2.1% ‐4.6% 5.5% 0.0% 8.6% 25