MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX Forecasting Process & Results FY 2013-2026 Financial Management Services October 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 1 Background 1 Risk Analysis Panel 2 Model Results 2 Summary 3 Supplementary Information 1. RARF Official Revenue Forecast 2. RARF Revenue Risk Analysis Results by Probability 3. RARF Official Revenue Forecast Distribution 4. Panelist Data Values 6. Panel Members Inputs by Independent Variable 7. Independent Variable Historical Values 4 5 6 7-11 12-18 19-25 MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES Introduction In 1985, the voters of Maricopa County approved Proposition 300 to establish a ½ cent transportation excise (sales) tax for construction of a regional freeway system within the county. The ½ cent sales tax was approved for a period of 20 years and ended on December 31, 2005. On November 2, 2004, Maricopa County’s voters approved Proposition 400 which extended the ½ cent sales tax for another 20 years through December 31, 2025. The sales tax extension is used for construction of new freeways, widening of existing freeways and highways, improvements to the arterial street system, regional bus service and other special transportation services, and high capacity transit services such as light rail, bus rapid transit and express buses. This document contains the official forecast of expected values for the Maricopa County Transportation Excise Tax for the period FY 2013–2026 as developed by the Arizona Department of Transportation (the Department) in cooperation with the Maricopa Association of Governments, Valley Metro and Valley Metro Rail. Background Since 1986, the Arizona Department of Transportation (the Department) has used a comprehensive regression-based econometric model to estimate Transportation Excise Tax revenues for Maricopa County. These revenues, which flow into the Regional Area Road Fund (RARF), are the major funding source for the Maricopa County Freeway Program. The revenue forecast is highly dependent on estimates of independent variables. In order to deal with variability between estimated and actual values, the Department introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies on probability analysis and the independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. The process results in a series of forecasts, with specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate. Enhanced forecasting accuracy was achieved in July 1997 when Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB) working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State University, incorporated economic data and independent variables which were not included in the 1986 model. In September 2005, the Department had HDR Decision Economics re-examine the structure of the RARF model and re-evaluate the set of explanatory variables used in the production of the RARF revenue forecasts. Three new variables (U. S. Housing Starts, Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic and Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment Growth) were added to the existing list of variables used in the RARF regression equations. The September 2010 panel members requested the Maricopa County per capita personal income variable to be in nominal dollars instead of real dollars. In September 2011, the prime interest rate variable was replaced by the 30 year mortgage rate variable and the U.S. housing starts variable was removed from the model. October 2012 1 The independent variables contained in the current model are: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Maricopa County nominal personal income growth Maricopa County population growth Maricopa County construction employment growth Phoenix consumer price index (CPI) Sky Harbor passenger traffic growth Maricopa County total non-farm employment growth 30 year mortgage rate Risk Analysis Panel The Risk Analysis Process relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economic and financial participants to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In August 2012, a panel of fourteen economic and financial experts representing public, private, and academic sectors submitted their individual estimates of the model’s independent variables and comments on the future economic outlook. The information gathered from the panelists was input into the model to produce a series of forecasts with associated probabilities of occurrence. The panelists’ inputs are reflected in the attached tables at the back of this report. Model Results This year ‘s panel inputs produced a mean forecast of $6,851.7 million for the period FY 2013-2026 with a compound growth rate (CGR) of 5.4 percent. The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 20132026 totals $6,446.8 million with a compound growth rate of 4.9 percent. This year’s Official Forecast is $47.4 million lower than last year’s Official Forecast. The Department’s Official Forecast result incorporates the 50 percent confidence interval growth rate amount for each year of the forecast except for FY 2013. The FY 2013 forecast of $340.5 million was developed by ADOT staff using time series techniques, historical and projected growth rates and recent legislative changes. FY 2013 Official Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026/1 Total Mean Forecast $344.4 372.5 397.8 422.7 446.6 470.7 495.4 519.9 544.2 569.7 596.1 623.2 651.5 397.0 $6,851.7 Official Forecast $340.5 361.1 381.4 401.8 422.9 443.0 464.3 487.9 509.3 532.4 554.0 578.0 602.3 367.9 $6,446.8 Confidence Level 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Average CGR 5.4% 4.9% Note: /1. FY 2026 totals reflect the transportation excise tax extension expires on December 31, 2025 October 2012 2 For comparison purposes, the October 2011 Official Forecast and the October 2012 Official Forecast are shown below: FY 2013-2026 Comparative Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Oct. 11 Oct. 12 Fiscal Official Official Year Forecast Forecast Difference 2013 $344.2 $340.5 ($3.7) 2014 364.8 361.1 (3.7) 2015 385.4 381.4 (4.0) 2016 405.9 401.8 (4.1) 2017 426.5 422.9 (3.6) 2018 447.2 443.0 (4.2) 2019 470.2 464.3 (5.9) 2020 489.9 487.9 (2.0) 2021 511.6 509.3 (2.3) 2022 534.6 532.4 (2.2) 2023 557.0 554.0 (3.0) 2024 580.0 578.0 (2.0) 2025 607.1 602.3 (4.8) 2026/1 Total 369.8 $6,494.2 367.9 $6,446.8 (1.9) ($47.4) Average CGR 4.8% 4.9% Note: /1 FY 2026 totals reflect the transportation excise tax extension expires on December 31, 2025 Summary The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2013-2026 totals $6,446.8 million, a decrease of $47.4 million from the October 2011 Official Forecast. The RAP results reflect the panel members’ continued concern with Maricopa County’s slower population and job growth going forward and the global economic uncertainty. Compared to last year, the panel inputs were very different for the construction employment and 30-year mortgage rate independent variables. The construction employment growth rates for fiscal years 2013 to 2017 were significantly higher while the 30-year mortgage rates were lower for fiscal years 2013 to 2016 but were higher for fiscal years 2021 to 2026. The remainder of the RAP panel inputs were similar as last year. Supplementary Information The remainder of this report presents supplementary information on the detailed results of the Risk Analysis Process, the Department’s model and the values of the independent variables forecast by the expert panel. While the Official Forecast period is FY 2013-2026, panel inputs were requested for FY 2013-2017, 2021 and 2026. Data displayed for other than the requested years, has been extrapolated. October 2012 3 October 2012 RARF Official Revenue Forecast With Category Detail and Confidence Interval by Fiscal Year (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year Percentile 2012 Actual 2013 50% 2014 50% 2015 50% 2016 50% 2017 50% 2018 50% 2019 50% 2020 50% 2021 50% 2022 50% 2023 50% 2024 50% 2025 50% 2026 50% Total 50% Retail Sales $162.4 $171.3 $180.6 $189.5 $199.2 $209.6 $219.4 $229.5 $242.3 $253.1 $265.6 $276.3 $287.7 $300.5 $183.8 $3,208.4 Contracting 30.5 32.9 37.8 42.4 45.8 49.0 51.2 54.3 57.2 59.1 61.1 63.4 66.1 68.5 41.8 730.6 Utilties 30.2 30.9 31.8 32.9 34.0 35.1 36.3 37.6 38.8 40.0 41.3 42.7 44.1 45.6 27.5 518.6 Restaurant and Bar 34.3 36.4 38.5 40.7 43.1 45.3 47.7 50.5 53.0 55.8 58.1 61.0 64.2 66.7 40.9 701.9 Rental of Real Property 36.4 37.7 39.3 41.2 43.3 45.6 47.7 49.9 51.9 54.5 57.3 59.3 62.1 64.7 39.2 693.7 Rental of Personal Property 12.0 12.4 13.3 14.0 14.8 15.5 16.7 17.6 18.6 19.3 20.3 21.2 22.1 23.1 14.2 243.1 Other 18.4 18.9 19.8 20.7 21.6 22.8 24.0 24.9 26.1 27.5 28.7 30.1 31.7 33.2 20.5 350.5 Total $324.2 $340.5 $361.1 $381.4 $401.8 $422.9 $443.0 $464.3 $487.9 $509.3 $532.4 $554.0 $578.0 $602.3 $367.9 $6,446.8 Note: /1 FY 2026 totals reflect the transporttion excise tax extension expires on December 31, 2025 October 2012 RARF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year Mean 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2013 $344.4 $392.5 $372.4 $359.3 $349.3 $340.5 $331.2 $322.5 $313.3 $301.0 2014 372.5 458.0 420.7 397.7 379.8 361.1 347.7 333.2 316.7 295.4 2015 397.8 515.9 462.8 431.2 405.0 381.4 363.1 342.2 320.5 292.5 2016 422.7 569.0 501.9 462.2 430.4 401.8 378.4 354.8 328.0 295.4 2017 446.6 615.2 536.8 492.9 455.2 422.9 395.5 366.7 336.1 300.5 2018 470.7 660.7 571.9 522.3 481.9 443.0 412.4 381.6 346.9 306.4 2019 495.4 703.9 605.5 550.4 507.3 464.3 430.8 397.9 360.9 315.7 2020 519.9 744.0 638.9 577.7 532.3 487.9 450.5 413.9 375.3 324.2 2021 544.2 783.4 673.7 607.1 556.0 509.3 471.1 431.6 389.5 336.0 2022 569.7 822.8 706.9 637.4 582.4 532.4 491.1 449.0 406.0 349.2 2023 596.1 871.5 740.5 669.0 612.3 554.0 508.9 469.3 418.5 359.4 2024 623.2 915.4 776.2 698.9 638.1 578.0 532.6 487.3 435.6 374.3 2025 651.5 963.0 815.9 731.3 665.1 602.3 552.5 504.6 452.2 387.4 2026/1 397.0 588.1 498.0 445.4 405.9 367.9 336.0 306.2 274.2 234.9 Total $6,851.7 $9,603.4 $8,322.1 $7,582.8 $7,001.0 $6,446.8 $6,001.8 $5,560.8 $5,073.7 $4,472.3 Note: /1 FY 2026 totals reflect the transportation excise tax extension expires on December 31, 2025. RARF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESU RARF OFFICIAL REVENUE FORECAST DISTRIBUTION (Current Dollars in Millions) Regional Area Road Fund (RARF) /1 Public Transportation Fiscal Freeways Arterial Streets Fund Year (56.2%) (10.5 %) (33.3%) Total 2013 $191.4 $35.7 $113.4 $340.5 2014 202.9 37.9 120.3 361.1 2015 214.3 40.1 127.0 381.4 2016 225.8 42.2 133.8 401.8 2017 237.7 44.4 140.8 422.9 2018 249.0 46.5 147.5 443.0 2019 260.9 48.8 154.6 464.3 2020 274.2 51.2 162.5 487.9 2021 286.2 53.5 169.6 509.3 2022 299.2 55.9 177.3 532.4 2023 311.3 58.2 184.5 554.0 2024 324.8 60.7 192.5 578.0 2025 338.5 63.2 200.6 602.3 2026 /2 206.8 38.6 122.5 367.9 TOTALS $3,623.0 $676.9 $2,146.9 $6,446.8 Note: 1/ The Regional Public Transportation Authority receives a portion of the excise tax funds for transit costs which is adjusted annually by the GDP price deflator. Beginning July 1, 2005, this transfer from RARF is divided equally between MAG and the Public Transportation Fund for planning and administering the regional transportation plan. 2/ FY 2026 totals reflect the transportatio n excise tax extension expires on December 31, 2025 Distribution Per Laws 2004, Chapter 2 (HB 2456), the sales tax extension are distributed as follows: / 1. 56.2 percent to the Regional Area Road (RARF) fund for freeways and other routes in the state highway systems, including capital expense and maintenance. / 2. 10.5 percent to the RARF fund for major arterial streets and intersection improvements, including capital expenses and implementation studies. / 3. 33.3 percent to the Public Transportation Fund for: (a) Capital costs, maintenance and operation of public transportation classifications. (b) Capital costs and utility relocation costs associated with a light rail public transit system. October 2012 6 PANELIST DATA VALUES Nominal Construction 30 Year Sky Harbor Mortgage Phoenix CPI Passenger Rate Growth/1 Traffic Growth Total Non-Farm Pers. Inc. Growth /1 Population Growth /1 Employment Growth /1 Employment Growth /1 Upper 10% 6.74% 2.14% 14.14% 4.74% 2.74% 4.26% 3.55% Lower 10% 2.94% 0.99% 4.16% 3.66% 1.00% 1.25% 1.25% Median 5.17% 1.63% 8.21% 4.19% 1.87% 2.93% 2.53% Upper 10% 7.83% 2.69% 16.45% 5.18% 3.21% 4.38% 3.83% Lower 10% 3.52% 1.30% 5.22% 3.84% 1.42% 1.31% 1.38% Median 5.85% 2.06% 10.53% 4.53% 2.28% 2.95% 2.89% Upper 10% 8.10% 3.02% 16.67% 5.74% 3.61% 4.57% 4.43% Lower 10% 3.86% 1.44% 4.41% 4.08% 1.39% 0.93% 1.35% Median 6.25% 2.34% 10.56% 4.91% 2.40% 2.78% 3.18% Upper 10% 8.21% 3.01% 13.68% 6.44% 3.79% 4.49% 4.62% Lower 10% 3.86% 1.42% 2.88% 4.58% 1.41% 0.73% 1.42% Median 6.15% 2.34% 8.15% 5.55% 2.37% 2.64% 3.33% Upper 10% 8.24% 2.97% 12.34% 7.13% 4.01% 4.47% 4.63% Lower 10% 3.50% 1.33% 0.90% 4.94% 1.21% 0.50% 1.20% Median 5.92% 2.22% 6.20% 5.94% 2.28% 2.45% 3.31% Upper 10% 8.59% 3.10% 10.46% 7.78% 4.26% 5.03% 5.30% Lower 10% 2.01% 0.79% -4.81% 5.10% 0.87% -0.18% 0.12% Median 5.24% 1.96% 3.64% 6.37% 2.32% 2.26% 2.77% Upper 10% 8.45% 3.00% 10.43% 7.91% 4.70% 5.06% 5.19% Lower 10% Median 1.66% 4.86% 0.67% 1.74% -5.62% 3.54% 5.15% 6.45% 0.92% 2.38% -0.31% 2.19% -0.41% 2.58% FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2021 FY 2026 All data in the above table are percentage growth rates except 30 year mortgage rate. Personal income and 30 year mortage rate are nominal rates. /1 Data for Maricopa County October 2012 7 Maricopa County Nominal Personal Income 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% Growth Rate 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2023 2024 2025 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Maricopa County Population 4.0% Growth Rate 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2026 Fiscal Year Median October 2012 Lower 10% Upper 10% 8 Maricopa County Construction Employment 20.0% 15.0% Growth Rate 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% 30 Year Mortgage Rate 10.0% 8.0% Rate 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Median October 2012 2019 2020 Fiscal Year Lower 10% 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Upper 10% 9 Phoenix CPI 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% Growth Rate 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic 8.0% Growth Rate 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Median October 2012 2019 2020 Fiscal Year 2021 Lower 10% 2022 2023 Upper 10% 10 Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment Growth 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% Growth Rate 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median October 2012 Lower 10% Upper 10% 11 Maricopa County Nominal Personal Income Growth Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2021 2026 7.67% 3.33% 5.50% 8.20% 4.20% 6.20% 8.61% 4.79% 6.70% 8.54% 4.66% 6.60% 8.57% 4.43% 6.50% 9.53% 0.47% 5.00% 9.60% 0.00% 4.80% 7.00% 3.50% 5.00% 8.00% 4.00% 5.50% 8.00% 4.50% 6.00% 8.00% 4.50% 6.50% 8.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.50% 0.00% 5.00% 8.50% 0.00% 5.00% 6.50% 2.50% 4.60% 7.00% 2.40% 5.00% 7.50% 3.00% 5.50% 8.00% 3.50% 6.00% 8.10% 3.40% 6.00% 9.00% 1.00% 5.00% 9.50% 0.00% 5.00% 7.00% 3.00% 5.00% 8.20% 4.20% 6.20% 8.70% 4.70% 6.70% 8.50% 4.50% 6.50% 8.20% 4.20% 6.20% 10.00% 1.00% 5.50% 10.00% 1.00% 5.00% 8.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 0.00% 6.10% 10.00% 1.00% 6.90% 10.00% 2.00% 6.70% 10.00% 2.00% 6.20% 10.00% 2.00% 5.74% 10.00% 2.00% 5.20% 6.40% 4.20% 5.70% 6.80% 3.80% 6.20% 7.20% 3.60% 6.70% 8.20% 3.10% 6.70% 8.50% 2.60% 6.70% 8.30% 0.80% 5.70% 8.30% 0.80% 4.80% 7.50% 2.70% 6.00% 8.10% 3.50% 5.80% 7.80% 3.20% 5.50% 7.30% 2.70% 5.00% 6.80% 2.20% 4.50% 6.70% 2.10% 4.40% 6.30% 1.70% 4.00% Not Provided Not Provided 5.00% 6.00% 6.00% 5.00% 5.00% 4.00% 4.00% 5.00% 2.50% 4.76% 7.10% 4.10% 5.30% 7.90% 4.20% 6.50% 8.50% 4.40% 6.40% 7.70% 4.20% 6.20% 8.00% 3.70% 5.80% 6.90% 2.90% 5.40% 6.80% 3.50% 5.50% 7.50% 4.50% 6.20% 8.00% 4.80% 6.80% 7.50% 5.00% 6.60% 7.50% 4.50% 6.10% 6.50% 4.50% 5.50% 5.80% 3.50% 5.00% 6.00% 4.00% 5.00% 9.00% 5.00% 6.00% 9.00% 5.50% 7.00% 8.00% 6.00% 7.50% 8.00% 5.00% 7.00% 8.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 3.50% 5.00% 6.00% 4.00% 5.10% 6.50% 4.00% 5.50% 6.50% 4.00% 5.00% 7.00% 3.00% 4.50% 7.50% 2.50% 4.50% 7.50% 1.50% 4.50% 7.50% 1.50% 4.00% 7.00% 2.00% 5.00% 7.50% 2.50% 6.00% 8.00% 3.00% 6.00% 9.00% 3.00% 6.00% 10.00% 3.00% 6.00% 11.00% 3.00% 6.00% 11.00% 3.00% 6.00% All data in the above table are in nominal growth rates. October 2012 12 Maricopa County Population Growth Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2021 2026 1.7% 0.7% 1.2% 2.4% 1.4% 1.9% 2.7% 1.5% 2.1% 2.8% 1.6% 2.2% 2.7% 1.5% 2.1% 3.3% 0.5% 1.9% 3.0% 0.2% 1.6% 2.0% 1.2% 1.6% 2.5% 1.5% 1.8% 3.0% 1.7% 2.0% 3.0% 1.7% 2.2% 3.0% 1.5% 2.1% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.5% 1.5% 2.2% 0.9% 1.6% 2.4% 1.4% 1.7% 2.7% 1.5% 2.0% 2.8% 1.5% 2.2% 2.9% 1.4% 2.1% 3.0% 0.5% 1.8% 3.4% 0.2% 1.6% 2.2% 1.0% 1.6% 2.6% 1.4% 2.0% 2.8% 1.5% 2.1% 2.8% 1.3% 2.2% 2.7% 1.2% 2.3% 2.8% 0.5% 1.9% 2.8% 0.5% 1.7% 2.0% 1.0% 1.7% 2.4% 0.5% 2.0% 2.8% 0.5% 2.1% 3.0% 0.5% 2.2% 3.0% 0.5% 2.1% 3.2% 0.0% 1.9% 3.2% 0.0% 1.6% 2.0% 0.8% 1.5% 2.5% 1.1% 1.9% 2.9% 1.4% 2.4% 3.2% 1.5% 2.6% 3.2% 1.3% 2.7% 3.0% 0.4% 2.2% 2.7% 0.2% 1.7% 2.2% 0.8% 1.5% 2.7% 1.3% 2.0% 2.9% 1.5% 2.2% 2.8% 1.4% 2.1% 2.8% 1.4% 2.1% 2.7% 1.3% 2.0% 2.7% 1.3% 2.0% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% 2.4% 1.2% 1.8% 2.7% 1.5% 2.1% 2.8% 1.6% 2.2% 2.9% 1.7% 2.3% 3.3% 0.5% 1.9% 3.1% 0.2% 1.7% Not Provided 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 2.3% 0.8% 1.7% 2.7% 0.8% 2.1% 3.0% 1.1% 2.5% 3.1% 1.2% 2.5% 3.4% 1.3% 2.6% 3.5% 1.0% 2.1% 3.3% 1.0% 1.8% 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 3.0% 1.8% 2.5% 3.5% 2.0% 3.0% 3.5% 1.7% 2.5% 3.0% 1.6% 2.2% 2.8% 1.5% 2.1% 2.6% 1.5% 2.2% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.7% 2.5% 3.0% 1.5% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.3% 1.1% 1.7% 3.0% 1.0% 2.2% 2.9% 1.0% 2.1% 2.8% 1.0% 2.1% 2.7% 1.0% 2.0% 3.3% 1.0% 1.9% 3.0% 1.0% 1.6% 2.5% 1.3% 1.8% 3.2% 1.5% 2.0% 3.4% 1.6% 2.2% 3.4% 1.7% 2.3% 3.2% 1.4% 2.0% 3.5% 1.0% 1.8% 3.3% 1.0% 1.8% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. October 2012 13 Maricopa County Construction Employment Growth 2013 2014 2015 2016 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 7.8% 17.2% 18.7% 16.0% Lower 10% 3.2% 8.8% 7.3% 4.0% Median 5.5% 13.0% 13.0% 10.0% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 15.0% 20.0% 20.0% 15.0% Lower 10% 5.0% 7.0% 8.0% 7.0% Median 10.0% 13.0% 13.0% 10.0% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 12.0% 15.0% 18.0% 16.0% Lower 10% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% Median 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 8.0% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 19.0% 20.0% 19.0% 16.0% Lower 10% 5.0% 8.0% 7.0% 4.0% Median 12.0% 14.0% 13.0% 10.0% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% Lower 10% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Median 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 12.0% 14.0% 15.0% 12.0% Lower 10% 6.5% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% Median 9.0% 10.5% 10.0% 8.0% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 7.2% 8.2% 6.5% 6.5% Lower 10% -2.8% -1.8% -3.5% -3.5% Median 2.2% 3.2% 1.5% 1.5% Panelist 8 Upper 10% Not Provided Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Not Provided Lower 10% Median 8.0% 12.0% 12.0% 8.0% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 15.8% 16.8% 20.7% 17.5% Lower 10% 3.5% 4.6% 5.8% 5.7% Median 7.6% 8.4% 11.2% 8.8% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 20.0% 16.0% 15.0% 9.0% Lower 10% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 3.0% Median 10.0% 12.0% 10.0% 7.5% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 15.0% 20.0% 15.0% 8.0% Lower 10% 3.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% Median 8.0% 12.0% 12.0% 7.0% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 15.0% 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% Lower 10% 4.5% 3.5% -3.5% -3.5% Median 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 16.0% 20.0% 20.0% 17.0% Lower 10% 4.0% 5.5% 7.0% 4.0% Median 10.0% 12.0% 12.0% 10.0% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. October 2012 2017 2021 2026 16.6% 1.4% 9.0% 16.0% -10.0% 3.0% 16.0% -10.0% 3.0% 10.0% 0.0% 5.0% 7.5% -10.0% 2.5% 7.5% -10.0% 2.5% 15.0% 0.0% 7.0% 17.0% -10.0% 4.0% 18.0% -18.0% 3.5% 12.0% 0.0% 8.0% 15.0% -10.0% 3.0% 15.0% -10.0% 3.0% 16.0% 2.0% 5.0% 7.0% 1.0% 4.0% 6.0% 0.0% 3.0% 10.0% -0.5% 5.0% 10.0% -5.0% 2.5% 10.0% -5.0% 2.5% 7.3% -2.7% 2.3% 7.3% -2.7% 2.3% 8.1% -1.9% 3.1% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 16.1% 4.5% 7.9% 12.5% 3.1% 6.2% 12.2% 3.2% 6.5% 7.0% 2.0% 5.0% 5.0% 1.0% 4.0% 5.0% 1.0% 4.0% 8.0% 3.0% 5.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 10.0% -3.5% 5.5% 10.0% -9.0% 5.5% 10.0% -9.0% 5.5% 15.0% 1.0% 8.0% 10.0% -5.0% 3.0% 10.0% -5.0% 3.0% 14 30 Year Mortgage 2013 2014 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 3.9% 4.1% Lower 10% 3.3% 3.5% Median 3.6% 3.8% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 4.8% 5.0% Lower 10% 3.5% 3.8% Median 4.2% 4.5% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 5.0% 5.7% Lower 10% 3.4% 3.6% Median 4.2% 4.5% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 4.5% 5.0% Lower 10% 3.5% 3.7% Median 4.0% 4.2% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 4.6% 5.1% Lower 10% 3.8% 4.3% Median 4.2% 4.7% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 4.6% 5.2% Lower 10% 3.9% 3.8% Median 4.3% 4.7% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 5.5% 5.2% Lower 10% 3.9% 3.6% Median 4.7% 4.4% Panelist 8 Upper 10% Not Provided Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Not Provided Lower 10% Median 4.5% 5.0% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 5.0% 5.4% Lower 10% 4.4% 4.7% Median 4.8% 5.1% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 4.6% 5.1% Lower 10% 3.8% 4.3% Median 4.2% 4.7% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 5.5% 5.5% Lower 10% 4.0% 4.0% Median 4.5% 5.0% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 4.5% 5.5% Lower 10% 3.2% 3.2% Median 3.8% 4.5% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 4.5% 5.5% Lower 10% 3.2% 3.5% Median 3.5% 3.8% All data in the above table are in nominal rates. October 2012 2015 2016 2017 2021 2026 4.7% 3.7% 4.2% 5.5% 4.5% 5.0% 5.8% 4.8% 5.3% 8.9% 6.1% 7.5% 8.9% 6.1% 7.5% 5.5% 4.3% 5.0% 6.5% 5.0% 6.0% 7.5% 5.3% 6.3% 7.5% 5.5% 6.5% 7.5% 5.5% 6.5% 6.5% 3.5% 5.0% 7.2% 3.4% 5.0% 8.0% 3.3% 5.0% 8.5% 3.5% 5.5% 9.0% 3.3% 5.5% 6.0% 4.0% 4.8% 6.9% 4.5% 5.8% 7.5% 5.0% 6.5% 8.0% 5.5% 6.5% 8.0% 5.5% 6.5% 6.0% 4.6% 5.3% 6.8% 5.4% 6.1% 7.3% 5.9% 6.6% 7.9% 5.5% 6.7% 7.9% 5.5% 6.7% 6.0% 4.0% 5.1% 6.5% 4.0% 5.8% 7.0% 4.5% 6.0% 7.0% 4.2% 6.0% 7.0% 4.2% 6.0% 4.2% 2.6% 3.4% 4.8% 3.2% 4.0% 5.7% 4.1% 4.9% 6.4% 4.8% 5.6% 6.9% 5.3% 6.1% 5.5% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.1% 5.2% 5.8% 6.4% 5.3% 6.1% 6.5% 5.4% 6.1% 6.8% 5.2% 6.4% 7.3% 4.9% 6.4% 6.0% 4.6% 5.3% 6.8% 5.4% 6.1% 7.3% 5.9% 6.6% 7.9% 5.5% 6.7% 7.9% 5.5% 6.7% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.5% 7.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.5% 5.0% 6.5% 7.5% 5.0% 7.0% 6.0% 4.6% 5.2% 7.0% 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% 5.0% 6.0% 9.0% 5.0% 6.0% 9.0% 5.0% 6.0% 6.0% 3.7% 4.2% 7.0% 4.2% 4.8% 8.0% 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% 5.5% 7.0% 8.0% 6.0% 7.0% 15 Phoenix CPI Growth 2013 2014 2015 2016 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 2.6% 2.9% 3.4% 3.9% Lower 10% 1.0% 1.5% 1.8% 2.1% Median 1.8% 2.2% 2.6% 3.0% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 2.5% 3.2% 3.5% 3.5% Lower 10% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Median 2.0% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 2.1% 2.6% 2.7% 3.3% Lower 10% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% Median 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 2.0% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% Lower 10% 0.4% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% Median 1.2% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% 4.5% Lower 10% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Median 1.6% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Lower 10% 0.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% Median 1.7% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 5.1% 5.4% 4.7% 4.7% Lower 10% 1.7% 2.0% 1.3% 1.3% Median 3.4% 3.7% 3.0% 3.0% Panelist 8 Upper 10% Not Provided Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Not Provided Lower 10% Median 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 2.9% 3.2% 4.4% 4.7% Lower 10% 0.4% 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% Median 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% 3.5% Lower 10% 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% Median 1.6% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 3.0% Lower 10% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Median 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2.5% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 2.2% 2.9% 3.5% 4.0% Lower 10% 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% Median 1.6% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% 3.4% Lower 10% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% Median 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. October 2012 2017 2021 2026 3.9% 1.9% 2.9% 4.4% 0.6% 2.5% 4.4% 0.6% 2.5% 3.5% 1.2% 2.2% 3.5% 1.0% 2.2% 3.5% 1.0% 2.2% 3.9% 0.6% 1.7% 4.2% 0.2% 1.5% 6.0% -0.3% 1.5% 3.2% 1.0% 2.2% 3.5% 0.8% 2.4% 4.5% 0.8% 2.4% 4.5% 1.0% 1.8% 4.5% 0.5% 2.2% 4.5% 0.5% 2.3% 4.3% 1.0% 2.3% 4.5% 0.8% 2.2% 4.5% 0.8% 2.2% 5.2% 1.8% 3.5% 5.4% 2.0% 3.7% 6.2% 2.8% 4.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 5.2% 1.2% 2.1% 5.5% 1.1% 2.3% 6.4% 1.0% 2.4% 3.5% 1.1% 1.8% 3.5% 0.5% 2.2% 3.5% 0.6% 2.3% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.5% 1.1% 1.8% 5.0% 0.5% 2.2% 6.0% 0.6% 2.3% 3.4% 1.6% 2.3% 4.0% 1.5% 2.2% 4.0% 1.6% 2.3% 16 Sky Harbour Passenger Traffic Growth Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median All data in the above table October 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2021 2026 4.4% 1.6% 3.0% 5.4% 1.6% 3.5% 5.3% 0.7% 3.0% 5.5% 0.5% 3.0% 5.7% 0.3% 3.0% 7.5% -1.5% 3.0% 7.5% -1.5% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.8% 2.0% 2.5% 4.0% 1.5% 2.5% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.5% 0.5% 2.0% 4.0% -1.0% 1.8% 4.5% -1.0% 1.8% 4.0% 0.6% 2.5% 4.2% 0.5% 2.5% 4.4% -0.2% 2.0% 4.5% -0.4% 2.0% 4.2% -0.8% 2.0% 5.0% -1.5% 1.5% 5.4% -2.0% 1.5% 3.8% 0.6% 2.0% 3.6% 0.0% 1.8% 5.0% -1.0% 1.8% 5.0% -1.0% 1.8% 3.6% 0.2% 1.9% 4.9% -1.0% 1.9% 4.9% -1.0% 2.0% 3.5% 1.0% 2.2% 3.5% 1.0% 2.0% 3.5% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.2% 0.8% 2.4% 5.5% 0.9% 2.6% 6.4% 1.2% 2.8% 5.8% 1.4% 3.0% 4.2% 1.4% 2.8% 4.0% 3.8% 1.0% 0.6% Sky Harbour Passenger 2.0% Traffic Growth 2.5% Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 14 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median All data in the above table 4.2% 1.4% 2.8% 3.5% 1.5% 2.8% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2021 2026 4.4% 1.6% 3.0% 5.4% 1.6% 3.5% 5.3% 0.7% 3.0% 5.5% 0.5% 3.0% 5.7% 0.3% 3.0% 7.5% -1.5% 3.0% 7.5% -1.5% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.8% 2.0% 2.5% 4.0% 1.5% 2.5% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.5% 0.5% 2.0% 4.0% -1.0% 1.8% 4.5% -1.0% 1.8% 4.0% 0.6% 2.5% 4.2% 0.5% 2.5% 4.4% -0.2% 2.0% 4.5% -0.4% 2.0% 4.2% -0.8% 2.0% 5.0% -1.5% 1.5% 5.4% -2.0% 1.5% 3.9% 1.1% 2.5% 3.5% 1.0% 2.5% 4.0% 1.0% 2.2% 4.0% 1.0% 2.5% 3.8% 0.6% 2.0% 3.8% 0.6% 2.0% 3.6% 0.0% 1.8% 5.0% -1.0% 1.8% 5.0% -1.0% 1.8% 4.2% 1.4% 2.8% 3.9% 1.1% 2.5% 4.0% 0.6% 2.3% 3.8% 0.4% 2.1% 3.6% 0.2% 1.9% 4.9% -1.0% 1.9% 4.9% -1.0% 2.0% 3.5% 1.5% 2.8% 3.5% 1.0% 2.5% 4.0% 1.0% 2.3% 4.0% 1.0% 2.2% 3.5% 1.0% 2.2% 3.5% 1.0% 2.0% 3.5% 1.0% 2.0% Not Provided Not Provided Not Provided Not Provided 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.2% -2.5% 1.5% 3.4% -1.4% 1.8% 3.7% -0.1% 2.0% 4.2% 0.8% 2.4% 5.5% 0.9% 2.6% 6.4% 1.2% 2.8% 5.8% 1.4% 3.0% Not Provided Not Provided 3.2% -2.5% 1.5% 4.0% 1.0% 2.3% 3.8% 0.4% 2.1% 4.2% 1.4% 2.8% Not Provided 3.0% 4.0% 0.6% 2.3% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.5% 3.0% 4.0% 4.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.2% 1.4% 2.8% 3.9% 1.1% 2.5% 4.0% -0.5% 2.5% 4.0% -1.0% 2.3% 4.0% -1.0% 2.0% 4.0% -1.0% 2.0% 4.0% -1.0% 2.0% 7.0% 7.3% 8.0% 7.1% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% 2.4% 5.0% 5.2% 5.5% 5.0% are in percentage growth rates. 7.0% 2.0% 4.5% 6.0% 1.0% 3.0% 6.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.4% -1.4% 1.8% 3.0% 3.7% -0.1% 2.0% 3.0% Not Provided 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.5% 3.0% 4.0% 4.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.2% 1.4% 2.8% 3.9% 1.1% 2.5% 4.0% -0.5% 2.5% 4.0% -1.0% 2.3% 4.0% -1.0% 2.0% 4.0% -1.0% 2.0% 4.0% -1.0% 2.0% 7.0% 7.3% 8.0% 7.1% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% 2.4% 5.0% 5.2% 5.5% 5.0% are in percentage growth rates. 7.0% 2.0% 4.5% 6.0% 1.0% 3.0% 6.0% 0.0% 2.0% 17 Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment Growth 2013 2014 2015 2016 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 3.5% 3.8% 4.6% 5.3% Lower 10% 1.1% 1.6% 1.8% 2.1% Median 2.3% 2.7% 3.2% 3.7% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% Lower 10% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Median 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 3.2% 3.7% 4.5% 4.6% Lower 10% 1.0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.5% Median 2.2% 2.4% 3.0% 3.2% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 4.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% Lower 10% 1.2% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% Median 2.4% 3.0% 3.5% 3.5% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 2.8% 3.5% 4.5% 4.5% Lower 10% 0.7% 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% Median 2.2% 2.4% 3.0% 3.0% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 3.1% 3.5% 3.8% 4.4% Lower 10% 1.8% 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% Median 2.7% 3.2% 3.2% 3.4% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 5.4% 4.4% 4.7% 4.7% Lower 10% 1.0% 0.0% -0.7% -0.7% Median 4.2% 3.2% 2.5% 2.5% Panelist 8 Upper 10% Not Provided Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Not Provided Lower 10% Median 2.5% 3.5% 4.0% 3.5% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 2.5% 3.2% 3.5% 4.1% Lower 10% 0.9% 1.2% 1.5% 1.7% Median 1.8% 2.6% 2.9% 3.4% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 3.5% 4.0% 4.0% 4.2% Lower 10% 1.5% 1.8% 2.2% 2.5% Median 2.6% 3.2% 3.5% 3.6% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 3.5% 3.5% 4.0% 3.5% Lower 10% 2.0% N/P N/P 3.0% Median 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 3.5% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 3.6% 4.2% 5.0% 5.0% Lower 10% 1.2% 1.8% 0.7% -1.0% Median 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 4.0% 4.2% 5.0% 5.2% Lower 10% 1.1% 1.3% 1.5% 2.0% Median 2.2% 2.4% 2.8% 3.2% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. N/P: Not Provided October 2012 2017 2021 2026 5.2% 2.0% 3.6% 7.4% -1.4% 3.0% 7.1% -1.5% 2.8% 5.0% 1.5% 3.5% 5.0% -1.0% 2.5% 5.0% -1.5% 2.5% 4.6% 1.3% 3.3% 4.9% 0.7% 3.1% 5.5% -0.5% 3.1% 5.0% 1.8% 3.4% 8.0% -2.0% 2.8% 8.0% -2.0% 2.7% 4.5% 1.5% 3.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.5% 3.5% 0.5% 2.0% 4.4% 0.3% 3.6% 4.2% 0.0% 2.2% 3.2% -0.5% 1.8% 4.5% -0.9% 2.3% 4.5% -0.9% 2.3% 4.3% -1.1% 2.1% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.5% 1.8% 3.8% 6.8% 1.0% 4.1% 6.6% -0.7% 4.7% 4.0% 2.0% 3.4% 3.5% 1.8% 3.0% 3.5% 1.8% 2.7% 3.5% 2.0% 3.4% 3.5% 2.0% 3.0% 3.5% 1.0% 2.5% 4.9% -1.0% 3.3% 5.8% -1.3% 2.6% 6.1% -1.4% 2.3% 5.4% 2.1% 3.5% 6.0% 1.5% 2.8% 6.0% 1.0% 2.4% 18 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY NOMINAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 14.9% 9.7% 9.8% 13.5% 16.7% 19.5% 17.7% 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 15.3% 10.1% 8.4% 12.8% 13.1% 10.7% 9.0% 8.0% 7.4% 5.9% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 4.8% 5.6% 6.7% 9.1% 10.4% 9.7% 9.5% 10.1% 8.8% 10.8% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 8.0% 4.5% 4.4% 7.1% 10.0% 10.7% 7.7% 3.8% -1.7% 2.0% 2011 2012* 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3.0% 4.0% FY 1973-2010 data from BEA; FY 2011-2013 data from Phoenix Blue Chip. FY 2014-2026, ADOT staff estimates. Data include inflation rate. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 25% Percent Change 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 -5% Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2012 Historical Min. Max. Mean -1.7% 4.0% 2.2% -1.7% 10.7% 5.1% -1.7% 19.5% 9.0% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 2.3% -0.2% 3.9% 3.8% 1.6% 10.1% 4.4% 3.9% 15.0% 19 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 5.2% 3.0% 2.1% 3.9% 4.4% 4.9% 4.4% 3.0% 2.9% 3.2% 4.4% 5.3% 4.2% 4.5% 2.9% 2.6% 1.4% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 3.1% 3.4% 3.8% 4.9% 5.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% 2.9% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.4% 3.2% 2.4% 2.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 2011 2012* 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0.5% 1.6% FY 1974-1999 from U. S. Census Bureau. FY 2000-2011 from ADOA Office of Employment and Population Statistics. FY 2012*-2013 based on Phoenix Blue Chip 2nd quarter 2012 growth rate estimates. FY 2014-2015 from ADOT staff. FY 2016-2026 based on DES/ADOC, Arizona Population Projections FY 2006-2055 growth rates dated March 31, 2006. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 6% Percent Change 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 -1% Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2012 Historical Min. Max. Mean 0.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.1% 3.4% 1.8% 0.1% 5.3% 3.2% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 0.7% 0.2% 1.6% 1.2% 0.3% 3.2% 1.3% 1.5% 4.9% 20 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 0.2% -16.4% -12.4% 13.7% 34.0% 29.7% 5.5% 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 -4.9% -4.5% 6.1% 22.3% 20.0% 8.8% -4.0% -7.3% -7.0% -7.1% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -5.6% -1.4% 7.0% 14.5% 15.4% 9.6% 6.0% 8.1% 9.3% -1.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -2.8% 1.2% 0.5% 6.1% 12.8% 12.6% 1.6% -11.6% -23.8% -24.2% 2011 2012* 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -7.3% 4.8% FY 2011and prior from BEA. FY 2012 and after based on ADOT staff estimates. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 40% Percent Change 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 -30% Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2012 Historical Min. Max. Mean -24.2% 4.8% -12.4% -24.2% 12.8% -2.9% -24.2% 34.0% 2.8% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 12.2% -24.0% -0.1% 13.5% -23.8% 12.6% 12.7% -11.8% 16.4% 21 HISTORICAL DATA 30 YEAR MORTGAGE RATE HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 7.5% 7.5% 8.6% 9.4% 8.9% 8.8% 9.1% 10.3% 12.9% 14.6% 17.3% 14.0% 13.6% 13.5% 11.2% 9.8% 10.5% 10.6% 10.1% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 9.8% 8.8% 7.9% 7.5% 8.6% 7.6% 7.9% 7.2% 6.9% 8.1% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 7.5% 6.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.8% 6.2% 6.3% 6.2% 5.6% 4.9% 2011 2012* 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4.6% 4.3% FY 1973-2011 data from Federal Reserve. FY 2012*-2026 based on Global Insight, 2nd Quarter 2012, Trend Forecast. * Estimate 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1972 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period Historical Min. Max. 5 Years 4.3% 10 Years Full Period October 2012 Mean Std. Dev. 80% Range Lower Upper 6.2% 5.1% 0.8% 4.4% 5.9% 4.3% 6.3% 5.6% 0.7% 4.6% 6.2% 4.3% 17.3% 8.7% 2.9% 5.8% 13.5% 22 HISTORICAL DATA PHOENIX CPI GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1971 1981 12.5% 1972 1982 7.7% 1973 1983 3.4% 1974 7.6% 1984 3.7% 1975 15.3% 1985 5.4% 1976 12.2% 1986 3.1% 1977 6.5% 1987 2.7% 1978 8.9% 1988 4.1% 1979 12.4% 1989 4.5% 1980 14.9% 1990 5.2% 1 through June 30) 1991 4.1% 2001 1992 2.7% 2002 1993 3.4% 2003 1994 3.7% 2004 1995 4.2% 2005 1996 5.1% 2006 1997 4.8% 2007 1998 4.0% 2008 1999 3.6% 2009 2000 3.2% 2010 2.4% 1.0% 1.9% 2.3% 1.6% 2.9% 2.5% 4.3% -0.3% 1.5% 2011 2012* 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2.9% 2.0% FY 1974-1999 Phoenix CPI data from ASU. FY 2000-2001 regressed from U.S CPI and FY 2002-2011 data derived from Phoenix Mesa CPI (BLS). FY 2012* -2026 estimates regressed from U.S. CPI based on Global Insight, 2nd Quarter 2012, Trend Forecast. 2012 2010 2008 2010 2006 2008 2004 2006 1986 1986 1988 1988 1990 1990 1992 1992 1994 1994 1996 1996 1998 1998 2000 2000 2002 2002 2004 1984 1984 1982 1982 1980 1980 1978 1978 1976 1976 0.18 18% 16% 0.16 14% 0.14 12% 0.12 10% 0.1 8% 0.08 6% 0.06 4% 0.04 2% 0.02 0% -2% 0 1974 1974 Change Percent PercentChange HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2012 Historical Min. Max. -0.3% 4.3% -0.3% 4.3% -0.3% 15.3% Mean 2.1% 2.2% 5.0% Std. Dev. 1.7% 1.2% 3.8% 80% Range Lower Upper 0.4% 3.7% 1.3% 3.1% 1.8% 12.2% 23 HISTORICAL DATA SKY HARBOR PASSENGER TRAFFIC GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR 1971 1981 -2.8% 1972 8.4% 1982 6.8% 1973 12.2% 1983 13.9% 1974 8.4% 1984 20.6% 1975 2.4% 1985 24.8% 1976 5.7% 1986 19.6% 1977 12.2% 1987 14.8% 1978 16.1% 1988 10.9% 1979 18.7% 1989 8.1% 1980 5.0% 1990 6.4% (July 1 through June 30) 1991 3.4% 2001 1992 0.9% 2002 1993 3.3% 2003 1994 7.7% 2004 1995 8.6% 2005 1996 8.9% 2006 1997 4.8% 2007 1998 2.2% 2008 1999 4.6% 2009 2000 6.5% 2010 2.7% -0.7% 2.8% 5.4% 4.9% 2.4% 1.2% -1.8% -5.3% -1.7% 2011 2012* 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2.4% 3.0% FY 1972-2011 data obtained from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. FY 2012*-2026 estimates are from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport staff. 2012 2005 2004 1999 2006 2001 2008 2003 2010 1997 2002 1994 1991 1996 1993 1998 1995 2000 1984 1983 1986 1985 1988 1987 1990 1989 1992 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 30% 0.18 0.16 25% 0.14 20% 0.12 15% 0.1 10% 0.08 5% 0.06 0% 0.04 -5% 0.02 -10% 0 1972 Percent PercentChange Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Fiscal Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2012 Historical Min. Max. Mean -5.3% 3.0% -0.7% -5.3% 5.4% 1.3% -5.3% 24.8% 6.8% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 3.4% -3.9% 2.7% 3.3% -2.2% 5.0% 6.7% -0.7% 16.1% 24 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY TOTAL NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1971 1981 3.4% 1991 0.9% 2001 1972 8.5% 1982 1.5% 1992 0.4% 2002 1973 11.6% 1983 2.9% 1993 3.0% 2003 1974 7.6% 1984 8.6% 1994 5.8% 2004 1975 0.0% 1985 10.2% 1995 6.9% 2005 1976 0.5% 1986 6.9% 1996 7.2% 2006 1977 6.9% 1987 4.1% 1997 6.3% 2007 1978 11.1% 1988 4.7% 1998 5.4% 2008 1979 11.8% 1989 4.1% 1999 5.0% 2009 1980 6.9% 1990 2.3% 2000 4.0% 2010 2.4% 0.6% 0.7% 2.7% 5.1% 5.8% 3.5% -0.4% -5.2% -5.1% 2011 2012* 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -0.3% 1.9% FY 1972-2011 data from Bureau of Labor Statistics. ADOA, Arizona's Workforce Report, May 4, 2012 for FY 2012* and 2013. FY 2014-2026 ADOT staff estimates. 2012 2005 2004 1999 2006 2001 2008 2003 2010 1997 2002 1994 1991 1996 1993 1998 1995 2000 1989 1992 1986 1985 1988 1987 1990 1984 1983 1981 1982 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1974 1975 15.0% 0.18 0.16 10.0% 0.14 0.12 5.0% 0.1 0.08 0.0% 0.06 0.04 -5.0% 0.02 -10.0% 0 1972 Change Change Percent Percent HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal FiscalYear Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2012 Historical Min. Max. -5.2% 1.9% -5.2% 5.8% -5.2% 11.8% Mean -1.8% 0.9% 4.2% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 3.2% -5.1% 1.0% 3.8% -5.1% 5.2% 3.9% 0.0% 8.6% 25