Arizona Department of Transportation MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX Forecasting Process & Results FY 2012-2026 Financial Management Services October 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 1 Background 1 Risk Analysis Panel 2 Model Results 2 Summary 3 Supplementary Information 1. RARF Official Revenue Forecast 2. RARF Revenue Risk Analysis Results by Probability 3. RARF Official Revenue Forecast Distribution 4. Official Forecast Results (Official, Mean, 80%, 20%) 5. Panel Mean Data Values 6. Panel Members Inputs by Independent Variable 7. Independent Variable Historical Values 4 7 8 9-13 14 15-21 22-28 MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES Introduction In 1985, the voters of Maricopa County approved Proposition 300 to establish a ½ cent transportation excise (sales) tax for construction of a regional freeway system within the county. The ½ cent sales tax was approved for a period of 20 years and ended on December 31, 2005. On November 2, 2004, Maricopa County’s voters approved Proposition 400 which extended the ½ cent sales tax for another 20 years through December 31, 2025. The sales tax extension is used for construction of new freeways, widening of existing freeways and highways, improvements to the arterial street system, regional bus service and other special transportation services, and high capacity transit services such as light rail, bus rapid transit and express buses. This document contains the official forecast of expected values for the Maricopa County Transportation Excise Tax for the period FY 2012–2026 as developed by the Arizona Department of Transportation (the Department) in cooperation with the Maricopa Association of Governments, Valley Metro and Valley Metro Rail. Background Since 1986, the Arizona Department of Transportation (the Department) has used a comprehensive regression-based econometric model to estimate Transportation Excise Tax revenues for Maricopa County. These revenues, which flow into the Regional Area Road Fund (RARF), are the major funding source for the Maricopa County Freeway Program. The revenue forecast is highly dependent on estimates of independent variables. In order to deal with variability between estimated and actual values, the Department introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies on probability analysis and the independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. The process results in a series of forecasts, with specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate. Enhanced forecasting accuracy was achieved in July 1996, when Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB) working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State University, incorporated economic data and independent variables which were not included in the 1986 model. October 2011 1 In September 2005, the Department had HDR Decision Economics re-examine the structure of the RARF modal and re-evaluate the set of explanatory variables used in the production of the RARF revenue forecasts. Three new variables (U. S. Housing Starts, Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic and Maricopa County Total NonFarm Employment Growth) were added to the existing list of variables used in the RARF regression equations. In the September 2011, the prime interest rate variable was replaced by the 30 year mortgage rate variable and the U. S. housing starts variable was removed from the model. At the request of the last year’s panel, the Maricopa County real per capita personal income variable was replaced by Maricopa County nominal personal income variable. The independent variables contained in the updated model are: • • • • • • • Maricopa County nominal personal income growth Maricopa County population growth Maricopa County construction employment growth Phoenix consumer price index (CPI) Sky Harbor passenger traffic growth Maricopa County total non-farm employment growth 30 year mortgage rate Risk Analysis Panel The Risk Analysis Process (RAP) relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economists to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In September 2011, a panel of fifteen economic and financial experts representing public, private, and academic sectors submitted their individual estimates of the model’s independent variables and comments on the future economic outlook. Based on the panelists’ input, the model produced a series of forecasts with associated probabilities of occurrence. Model Results This year’s panel inputs produced a mean forecast of $7,260.8 million for the period FY 2012-2026 with a compound growth rate (CGR) of 5.4 percent. The FY 2012-2026 Official Forecast totals $6,815.8 million with a compound growth rate of 5.0 percent. Compared to last year’s official forecast, the estimated revenues for FY 2012-2016 decreased by $221.0 million. The Official Forecast result incorporates the 50 percent confidence interval for each year of the forecast except for FY 2012. The FY 2012 forecast of $321.6 million was developed by ADOT staff independently of the econometric model using time series techniques, and historical and projected growth rates from the model. October 2011 2 Summary The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2012-2026 totals $6,815.8 million, a decrease of $221.0 million from the October 2010 Official Forecast. The panel members were more pessimistic in their estimates for both the short and long term trends for Maricopa County compared to last year’s panel. Except for Sky Harbor passenger traffic variable, the panel members predicted lower growth rates for all the independent variables for FY 2012-2026. They continue to be concerned with the depressed real estate market, slower population and job growth and the uncertainty in the global economy. Supplementary Information The remainder of this report presents supplementary information on the detail results of the RAP model and Risk Analysis Process. While the Official Forecast period is FY 2012-2026, panel inputs were requested for FY 2012-2016, 2021 and 2026. Data displayed for other than the requested years were extrapolated. October 2011 3 FY 2012 Official Forecast Results (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026/1 Total Average CGR Mean Forecast $329.6 354.2 379.7 404.5 428.8 452.8 477.3 501.5 525.6 549.4 574.4 600.3 627.5 655.7 399.5 $7,260.8 5.4% Official Forecast $321.6 344.2 364.8 385.4 405.9 426.5 447.2 470.2 489.9 511.6 534.6 557.0 580.0 607.1 369.8 $6,815.8 5.0% Confidence Level N/A 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Note: Amount in current dollars Totals may not add due to individual rounding /1. Relects the end of the 1/2 cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025 October 2011 4 For comparison purposes, the October 2010 and October 2011 Official Forecasts are shown below: FY 2012 Comparative Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026/1 Oct. 10 Official Forecast $310.4 327.3 349.2 374.2 401.1 427.5 451.6 479.4 508.8 535.5 565.4 598.0 630.9 666.0 411.5 Oct. 11 Official Forecast $321.6 344.2 364.8 385.4 405.9 426.5 447.2 470.2 489.9 511.6 534.6 557.0 580.0 607.1 369.8 Total Average CGR $7,036.8 6.0% $6,815.8 5.0% Difference $11.2 16.9 15.6 11.2 4.8 (1.0) (4.4) (9.2) (18.9) (23.9) (30.8) (41.0) (50.9) (58.9) (41.7) ($221.0) Note: Amount in current dollars. Totals may not add due to individual rounding. /1 Reflects the end of the 1/2 cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025 October 2011 5 RARF Official Revenue Forecast With Category Detail by Fiscal Year (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Retail Rental Real Rental Personal Bar Property Property Contracting Utilities Restaurant/ Year Other Total 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 $159.6 174.0 185.9 196.5 206.9 217.2 226.3 238.7 247.6 257.7 268.2 278.6 $30.5 32.0 34.0 36.9 39.9 43.1 47.0 50.3 53.7 57.0 61.3 64.8 $29.8 30.4 31.1 32.1 33.0 34.0 35.1 36.1 37.2 38.4 39.5 40.6 $32.8 34.6 36.5 38.6 40.7 42.8 45.1 47.3 49.3 51.6 53.9 56.3 $36.1 38.4 40.5 42.5 44.3 46.4 48.4 50.4 52.4 54.6 56.7 59.2 $11.7 12.8 13.8 14.5 15.3 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.3 20.3 21.2 $21.1 22.0 23.0 24.3 25.8 26.9 28.4 29.7 31.2 33.0 34.7 36.3 $321.6 344.2 364.8 385.4 405.9 426.5 447.2 470.2 489.9 511.6 534.6 557.0 2024 2025 2026/1 290.1 303.1 184.5 68.2 72.0 44.8 41.8 43.0 25.8 58.8 61.5 37.6 61.3 64.1 38.6 21.8 22.9 13.9 38.0 40.5 24.6 580.0 607.1 369.8 Total: 12-26 $3,434.9 $735.5 $527.9 $687.4 $733.9 $256.7 $439.5 $6,815.8 Note: Amount in current dollars. Totals may not add due to individual rounding. /1 Reflects the end of the 1/2 cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025 October 2011 6 October 2011 RARF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year Mean 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2012 $329.6 $375.7 $355.9 $343.5 $333.8 $325.1 2013 354.2 436.2 399.8 376.8 359.3 344.2 2014 379.7 492.2 441.4 408.7 384.8 364.8 2015 404.5 546.0 478.8 439.6 409.1 385.4 2016 428.8 590.1 513.9 468.4 432.9 405.9 2017 452.8 630.9 546.5 497.5 457.4 426.5 2018 477.3 671.2 581.2 525.0 482.4 447.2 2019 501.5 710.0 614.2 551.1 505.8 470.2 2020 525.6 749.5 646.9 579.4 530.2 489.9 2021 549.4 786.7 677.7 605.2 553.7 511.6 2022 574.4 826.8 711.5 636.3 579.2 534.6 2023 600.3 868.4 746.9 668.7 604.6 557.0 2024 627.5 911.5 780.7 698.4 632.8 580.0 2025 655.7 960.0 817.2 728.4 659.4 607.1 2026/1 684.9 1,004.2 852.7 759.3 689.0 634.0 /1 Totals reflect the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026, but the transportation excise tax expires December 31, 2025. 60% 70% 80% 90% $317.4 330.9 346.1 363.1 381.6 400.5 420.4 438.1 457.0 476.1 495.1 514.5 535.8 557.8 582.8 $309.9 317.2 328.1 342.0 355.5 370.7 386.3 403.6 421.2 437.5 455.2 475.6 493.6 516.7 538.1 $300.8 303.0 309.5 317.8 329.1 341.5 354.3 368.8 383.4 399.0 413.9 429.9 446.5 464.7 484.9 $290.0 284.9 285.3 288.7 296.7 305.8 317.2 329.2 342.3 355.2 367.7 383.7 396.7 411.5 425.8 7 RARF Official Revenue Forecast Revenue Distribution (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 /2 TOTALS Regional Area Road Fund (RARF) /1 Freeways Arterial Streets (56.2%) (10.5 %) $180.7 $33.8 193.4 36.2 205.0 38.3 216.6 40.5 228.1 42.6 239.7 44.8 251.3 47.0 264.2 49.4 275.3 51.5 287.6 53.7 300.4 56.1 313.0 58.5 326.0 60.9 341.2 63.7 207.9 38.8 $3,830.5 $715.7 Public Transportation Fund (33.3%) $107.1 114.6 121.5 128.3 135.2 142.0 148.9 156.6 163.1 170.3 178.1 185.5 193.1 202.2 123.1 $2,269.6 Total $321.6 344.2 364.8 385.4 405.9 426.5 447.2 470.2 489.9 511.6 534.6 557.0 580.0 607.1 369.8 $6,815.8 Note: 1/ The Regional Public Transportation Authority received a portion of the excise tax funds for transit cost which is adjusted annually by the GDP price deflator. Beginning July 1, 2005, this transfer from RARF is divided equally between MAG and the Public Transportation Fund for planning and administering the regional transportation plan. 2/ Reflects the end of the 1/2 cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025. Totals may not add due to rounding. Distribution Per Laws 2004, Chapter 2 (HB 2456), the sales tax extension will be distributed as follows: 1. 56.2 percent to the Regional Area Road (RARF) fund for freeways and other routes in the state highway systems, including capital expense and maintenance. 2. 10.5 percent to the RARF fund for major arterial streets and intersection improvements, including capital expenses and implementation studies. 3. 33.3 percent to the Public Transportation Fund for: (a). Capital costs, maintenance and operation of public transportation classifications. (b). Capital costs and utility relocation costs associated with a light rail public transit system. October 2011 8 Official Forecast Results (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 /1 Total Mean Forecast $329.6 354.2 379.7 404.5 428.8 452.8 477.3 501.5 525.6 549.4 574.4 600.3 627.5 655.7 399.5 $7,260.8 Official Forecast $321.6 344.2 364.8 385.4 405.9 426.5 447.2 470.2 489.9 511.6 534.6 557.0 580.0 607.1 369.8 $6,815.8 80% Conf. Interval $300.8 303.0 309.5 317.8 329.1 341.5 354.3 368.8 383.4 399.0 413.9 429.9 446.5 464.7 282.8 $5,444.9 20% Conf. Interval $355.9 399.8 441.4 478.8 513.9 546.5 581.2 614.2 646.9 677.7 711.5 746.9 780.7 817.2 497.4 $8,809.9 Note: 1/ FY 2026 totals are adjusted to reflect the end of the transportation excise tax on December 31, 2025. Totals may not add due to individual rounding. $1,600 Millions of Current Dollars $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Mean Fcst October 2011 Official Fcst 80% Conf. Interval 20% Conf. Interval 9 10.0% Maricopa County Nominal Personal Income 9.0% 8.0% Growth Rate 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Maricopa County Population 4.0% Growth Rate 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median October 2011 Lower 10% Upper 10% 10 Maricopa County Construction Employment 20.0% 15.0% Growth Rate 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% 30 Year Mortgage Rate 10.0% 8.0% Rate 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median October 2011 Lower 10% Upper 10% 11 Phoenix CPI 5.0% 4.5% Growth Rate 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic 8.0% Growth Rate 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Fiscal Year Median October 2011 Lower 10% Upper 10% 12 2026 Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% Growth Rate 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median October 2011 Lower 10% Upper 10% 13 Mean Panelist Data Values FY 2012 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2013 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2014 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2015 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2016 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2021 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2026 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Nominal Personal Income Growth /1 Phoenix CPI Growth/1 Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic Growth Total Non-Farm Employment Growth /1 5.05% 3.78% 4.36% 2.51% 0.88% 1.69% 4.84% 1.73% 3.27% 2.56% 0.39% 1.53% 8.15% -0.16% 2.82% 5.82% 4.02% 4.77% 2.84% 1.03% 1.89% 5.36% 1.67% 3.51% 3.17% 0.87% 2.00% 2.60% 1.36% 2.03% 10.48% 0.26% 4.29% 6.28% 4.22% 5.19% 3.29% 1.22% 2.23% 5.50% 1.41% 3.18% 3.81% 1.12% 2.51% 7.65% 3.32% 5.56% 2.87% 1.49% 2.26% 12.30% 0.26% 5.17% 6.95% 4.40% 5.55% 3.49% 1.24% 2.34% 5.39% 1.19% 3.04% 4.17% 1.36% 2.75% 7.88% 3.27% 5.56% 2.97% 1.50% 2.34% 13.16% -0.19% 5.46% 7.43% 4.67% 5.94% 3.66% 1.25% 2.34% 5.40% 0.96% 2.82% 4.45% 1.52% 3.06% 7.40% 2.43% 5.04% 2.82% 1.19% 2.09% 10.92% -3.35% 3.25% 7.99% 4.75% 6.14% 3.73% 1.12% 2.33% 5.20% 0.49% 2.51% 4.28% 0.88% 2.68% 7.24% 2.02% 4.70% 2.69% 0.88% 1.85% 10.60% -5.19% 2.88% 8.24% 4.80% 6.28% 4.01% 1.13% 2.44% 5.15% 0.36% 2.42% 4.18% 0.58% 2.48% Population Growth /1 Construction Employment Growth /1 30 Year Mortgage Rate 5.04% 1.99% 3.65% 1.89% 0.95% 1.41% 6.40% -0.28% 2.39% 5.99% 2.89% 4.52% 2.22% 1.12% 1.69% 7.29% 3.11% 5.09% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates in nominal term except the 30 year mortgage rate. /1 Data for Maricopa County October 2011 14 Maricopa County Nominal Personal Income Growth Rate 2012 2013 2014 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 4.00% 4.00% 4.50% Lower 10% 1.50% 1.50% 2.00% Median 3.00% 3.00% 3.50% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 5.80% 6.20% 8.00% Lower 10% 3.60% 4.60% 4.40% Median 4.70% 5.40% 6.20% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 4.50% 5.50% 7.00% Lower 10% 2.50% 2.50% 3.00% Median 3.50% 4.50% 5.00% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 5.00% 5.80% 7.00% Lower 10% -1.30% 1.50% 1.30% Median 2.80% 4.20% 4.20% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 4.90% 5.90% 7.80% Lower 10% 3.10% 4.50% 4.60% Median 3.80% 5.20% 5.70% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 6.00% 7.00% 7.50% Lower 10% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% Median 4.00% 5.00% 5.50% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 4.80% 5.80% 8.40% Lower 10% 2.80% 3.50% 4.40% Median 3.80% 4.80% 6.40% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 7.90% 9.60% 9.90% Lower 10% -0.90% 0.80% 1.10% Median 3.50% 5.20% 5.50% Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Not Provided Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% 3.80% 4.50% 5.00% Lower 10% 2.80% 3.00% 3.20% Median 3.50% 3.80% 4.00% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 4.85% 6.57% 8.76% Lower 10% 2.82% 4.31% 4.54% Median 3.81% 5.42% 6.60% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 3.50% 4.00% 5.00% Lower 10% 1.00% 2.00% 2.00% Median 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 6.50% 7.00% 10.00% Lower 10% 4.00% 4.50% 5.00% Median 6.00% 6.50% 7.00% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 5.00% 6.00% 6.25% Lower 10% 1.50% 1.70% 2.00% Median 2.50% 3.00% 3.10% Panelist 15 Upper 10% 4.00% 6.00% 7.00% Lower 10% 2.50% 3.00% 3.00% Median 3.20% 3.80% 4.60% All data in the above table are in nominal growth rates. October 2011 2015 2016 2021 2026 4.50% 2.00% 4.00% 5.00% 2.00% 4.00% 5.00% 2.00% 4.50% 5.00% 2.00% 4.50% 8.60% 4.80% 6.70% 8.50% 4.70% 6.60% 7.10% 2.90% 5.00% 7.40% 2.20% 4.80% 7.00% 3.00% 5.50% 7.00% 3.00% 5.50% 7.00% 2.00% 5.00% 7.00% 2.00% 5.00% 7.50% 1.80% 4.40% 8.00% 2.50% 4.80% 8.50% 1.50% 5.00% 8.80% 0.50% 5.00% 8.90% 5.10% 6.80% 8.90% 5.40% 6.80% 8.00% 3.00% 5.60% 7.50% 2.60% 4.80% 8.00% 4.00% 6.50% 8.00% 4.00% 6.50% 8.00% 3.00% 6.00% 8.00% 3.00% 6.00% 8.80% 4.80% 6.80% 9.00% 4.50% 7.00% 8.50% 3.50% 6.00% 8.00% 3.00% 5.50% 9.50% 0.70% 5.10% 8.90% 0.10% 4.50% 8.40% -0.40% 4.00% 7.70% -1.10% 3.30% 6.00% 3.30% 4.20% 7.00% 3.00% 4.10% 6.50% 2.70% 4.00% 6.50% 2.20% 3.80% 8.87% 4.54% 6.50% 8.70% 4.58% 6.46% 8.15% 3.33% 5.74% 7.68% 2.32% 5.00% 5.00% 2.50% 5.00% 5.50% 2.50% 5.00% 5.50% 2.50% 4.50% 5.50% 2.50% 4.50% 9.00% 5.00% 8.00% 9.00% 4.50% 8.00% 7.00% 4.00% 6.00% 7.00% 3.00% 5.00% 6.50% 2.00% 3.10% 6.75% 2.00% 3.20% 7.00% 2.00% 3.20% 7.25% 2.00% 3.20% 9.00% 3.00% 5.20% 10.00% 3.00% 5.40% 9.00% 2.00% 6.00% 8.00% 2.00% 5.40% 15 Maricopa County Population Growth Rate 2012 2013 2014 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Lower 10% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% Median 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 1.8% 2.0% 2.3% Lower 10% 1.2% 1.4% 1.5% Median 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 2.2% 2.6% 2.7% Lower 10% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% Median 1.8% 2.0% 2.2% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 2.1% 2.4% 2.7% Lower 10% 1.1% 1.4% 1.3% Median 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 2.0% 2.4% 2.8% Lower 10% 1.0% 1.5% 1.9% Median 1.5% 1.9% 2.3% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 1.3% 1.5% 3.0% Lower 10% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% Median 1.0% 1.2% 2.5% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 1.4% 1.8% 2.2% Lower 10% 0.9% 0.9% 1.2% Median 1.2% 1.4% 1.7% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 3.1% 3.3% 3.9% Lower 10% 1.1% 1.3% 1.9% Median 2.1% 2.3% 2.9% Panelist 9 Upper 10% 0.6% 0.9% 1.6% Lower 10% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% Median 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% Lower 10% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Median 1.7% 1.8% 2.0% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 1.7% 2.7% 2.9% Lower 10% 0.0% 0.6% 1.2% Median 0.8% 1.9% 2.2% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 1.7% 2.2% 2.3% Lower 10% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% Median 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% Lower 10% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% Median 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% Lower 10% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% Median 1.5% 2.0% 2.2% Panelist 15 Upper 10% 2.2% 2.5% 2.8% Lower 10% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% Median 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. October 2011 2015 2016 2021 2026 1.8% 1.0% 1.5% 1.8% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 2.6% 1.6% 2.1% 2.7% 1.7% 2.2% 2.6% 1.2% 1.9% 2.5% 0.7% 1.6% 2.8% 1.5% 2.3% 2.8% 1.5% 2.2% 2.5% 1.0% 1.9% 2.2% 0.5% 1.5% 2.8% 1.4% 2.3% 3.0% 1.4% 2.5% 3.1% 1.1% 2.1% 3.4% 0.6% 1.9% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.2% 2.0% 2.6% 2.8% 1.6% 2.2% 2.7% 1.2% 2.1% 4.0% 1.0% 2.5% 4.0% 1.0% 2.5% 4.0% 1.0% 2.5% 4.0% 1.0% 2.5% 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 2.6% 1.5% 2.0% 2.7% 1.0% 1.8% 2.3% 0.6% 1.5% 3.9% 1.9% 2.9% 3.9% 1.9% 2.9% 3.6% 1.6% 2.6% 3.2% 1.2% 2.2% 2.5% 1.2% 1.9% 2.8% 1.5% 2.5% 2.9% 1.5% 2.3% 2.4% 1.0% 2.0% 2.5% 1.7% 2.1% 2.5% 1.7% 2.1% 2.4% 1.2% 1.8% 2.3% 0.5% 1.7% 3.2% 1.7% 2.5% 3.5% 1.6% 2.4% 3.5% 1.0% 2.1% 3.3% 1.0% 1.8% 2.5% 1.5% 2.1% 2.8% 1.7% 2.4% 2.5% 1.6% 2.2% 2.3% 1.5% 2.0% 3.5% 2.0% 3.0% 3.5% 1.5% 3.0% 2.5% 1.0% 2.0% 2.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 1.0% 2.2% 2.6% 0.9% 2.2% 2.7% 0.8% 2.0% 2.8% 0.7% 2.0% 3.0% 1.3% 2.0% 3.0% 1.5% 2.1% 2.5% 1.3% 2.0% 2.4% 1.2% 1.9% 16 Maricopa County Construction Employment Growth Rate 2012 2013 2014 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Lower 10% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Median 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 6.8% 9.6% 12.8% Lower 10% -0.8% 0.0% 1.8% Median 3.0% 3.3% 6.0% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 4.5% 6.0% 10.0% Lower 10% -1.0% -1.0% 2.0% Median 2.6% 3.0% 7.0% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 5.0% 8.0% 12.0% Lower 10% -1.0% -0.5% 1.0% Median 2.0% 3.0% 5.0% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 6.2% 9.0% 20.0% Lower 10% 0.0% 0.2% 2.9% Median 2.8% 3.2% 7.0% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 5.0% 7.0% 8.0% Lower 10% -0.5% 0.0% 1.0% Median 2.6% 3.0% 4.0% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% Lower 10% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% Median 2.5% 2.8% 3.0% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 33.0% 30.0% 23.0% Lower 10% 7.0% 4.0% -3.0% Median 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Panelist 9 Upper 10% Not Provided Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% Lower 10% -4.0% -2.0% -1.0% Median -2.0% -2.0% 1.0% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 7.8% 13.3% 15.4% Lower 10% 1.0% 2.5% 2.5% Median 3.5% 4.7% 5.3% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 3.0% 5.0% 6.0% Lower 10% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% Median 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Lower 10% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% Median 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 5.8% 8.8% 12.0% Lower 10% -0.6% -3.0% -3.0% Median 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% Panelist 15 Upper 10% 3.0% 5.0% 10.0% Lower 10% -6.0% -5.0% -5.0% Median 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. October 2011 2015 2016 2021 2026 2.0% 0.5% 1.2% 2.5% 1.0% 1.5% 3.0% 1.0% 1.5% 3.0% 1.0% 1.5% 13.9% 2.8% 7.0% 20.8% 3.3% 10.0% 12.7% -6.7% 3.0% 16.6% -10.6% 3.0% 12.5% 2.0% 8.0% 12.5% 2.0% 7.2% 10.0% -5.0% 3.0% 10.0% -10.0% 2.5% 14.0% 0.8% 5.5% 16.0% 0.0% 6.0% 17.0% -10.0% 4.0% 18.0% -18.0% 3.5% 25.0% 3.5% 10.0% 22.0% 2.0% 8.0% 14.0% -2.0% 4.0% 12.0% -4.0% 3.0% 8.0% 2.0% 5.0% 9.0% 1.5% 5.0% 9.0% 0.0% 3.0% 9.0% 0.0% 2.5% 8.0% -2.0% 3.5% 10.0% -2.5% 3.2% 10.0% -2.5% 2.0% 10.0% -2.5% 2.0% 18.0% -8.0% 5.0% 17.0% -9.0% 4.0% 15.0% -11.0% 2.0% 15.0% -11.0% 2.0% 10.0% 0.0% 3.0% 12.0% 0.0% 5.0% 9.0% -2.0% 4.0% 6.0% -3.0% 2.0% 16.1% 3.1% 8.2% 12.5% 1.0% 5.0% 12.2% -0.7% 5.0% 10.8% -1.5% 4.8% 7.8% 4.0% 5.0% 8.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 4.0% 5.0% 7.0% 4.0% 5.0% 10.0% 4.0% 6.0% 10.0% 5.0% 8.0% 6.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 12.0% -3.0% 2.0% 12.0% -3.0% 2.5% 12.0% -3.0% 3.0% 12.0% -3.0% 3.5% 15.0% -6.0% 3.0% 20.0% -8.0% 5.0% 15.0% -10.0% 3.0% 15.0% -15.0% 3.0% 17 30 Year Mortgage Rate 2012 2013 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 4.5% 4.5% Lower 10% 4.0% 3.5% Median 4.0% 4.0% Panelist 2 Upper 10% Not Provided Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% 5.5% 6.0% Lower 10% 4.0% 4.5% Median 4.5% 5.0% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 5.0% 6.0% Lower 10% 3.8% 4.2% Median 4.2% 5.0% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 4.6% 5.4% Lower 10% 3.8% 4.2% Median 4.2% 4.8% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 6.0% 7.0% Lower 10% 3.0% 3.0% Median 5.0% 5.5% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 4.8% 5.5% Lower 10% 4.2% 4.2% Median 4.3% 4.5% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 5.4% 5.4% Lower 10% 2.6% 2.6% Median 4.0% 4.0% Panelist 9 Upper 10% Not Provided Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% 4.5% 4.8% Lower 10% 4.1% 4.1% Median 4.3% 4.3% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 5.5% 6.1% Lower 10% 4.4% 5.0% Median 4.9% 5.6% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 4.5% 6.0% Lower 10% 3.5% 4.5% Median 4.0% 5.0% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 5.5% 6.5% Lower 10% 4.5% 4.5% Median 5.0% 5.5% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 5.5% 6.5% Lower 10% 3.8% 4.2% Median 4.5% 4.8% Panelist 15 Upper 10% 4.5% 6.0% Lower 10% 3.5% 3.7% Median 3.8% 4.1% All data in the above table are in nominal rates. October 2011 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 4.5% 3.5% 4.0% 5.0% 3.5% 5.0% 5.0% 3.5% 5.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.5% 4.5% 5.5% 7.5% 4.5% 6.0% 7.5% 5.0% 6.5% 8.0% 5.0% 7.0% 8.0% 5.0% 7.0% 6.5% 4.5% 5.5% 7.2% 4.7% 6.0% 8.0% 4.5% 6.0% 8.5% 4.4% 6.5% 9.0% 4.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.2% 5.8% 7.0% 6.0% 6.5% 8.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 6.0% 7.0% 7.5% 3.0% 6.0% 8.0% 4.0% 6.5% 9.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 5.0% 7.0% 6.0% 4.2% 4.8% 7.5% 4.5% 5.0% 8.5% 4.5% 6.0% 9.0% 4.5% 5.5% 9.0% 4.5% 5.5% 5.4% 2.6% 4.0% 4.3% 1.5% 2.9% 4.5% 1.7% 3.1% 5.4% 2.6% 4.0% 6.4% 3.6% 5.0% 5.2% 4.2% 4.5% 5.8% 4.4% 5.0% 6.3% 4.6% 5.5% 7.2% 4.4% 6.0% 7.2% 4.4% 6.0% 6.8% 5.4% 6.1% 7.3% 5.9% 6.6% 7.8% 6.4% 7.1% 8.3% 5.9% 7.1% 8.5% 5.7% 7.1% 6.5% 4.5% 5.5% 7.5% 4.5% 6.0% 7.5% 5.0% 6.0% 7.5% 5.0% 6.0% 7.5% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% 5.0% 6.5% 8.0% 6.0% 7.5% 8.5% 6.0% 7.5% 9.0% 6.0% 7.5% 7.5% 4.2% 5.0% 8.5% 4.2% 5.3% 9.5% 4.2% 5.5% 10.5% 4.2% 5.8% 11.5% 4.2% 6.0% 6.2% 4.0% 4.8% 6.8% 4.5% 4.9% 7.0% 4.3% 5.0% 8.0% 4.8% 5.5% 8.0% 5.0% 6.0% 18 Phoenix CPI Growth Rate 2012 2013 2014 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% Lower 10% 1.0% 1.0% 1.5% Median 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 2.4% 2.8% 3.5% Lower 10% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% Median 1.5% 1.8% 2.2% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 2.5% 2.7% 3.2% Lower 10% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Median 1.7% 2.0% 2.2% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 2.1% 2.5% 2.7% Lower 10% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% Median 0.9% 1.3% 1.7% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 2.5% 2.7% 3.4% Lower 10% 0.5% 0.8% 1.0% Median 1.5% 1.7% 2.2% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 2.5% 2.7% 3.2% Lower 10% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% Median 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 2.2% 3.0% 3.2% Lower 10% 1.1% 1.0% 1.5% Median 1.6% 1.8% 2.2% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 3.8% 3.9% 4.2% Lower 10% 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% Median 2.7% 2.8% 3.1% Panelist 9 Upper 10% Not Provided Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% 2.3% 2.5% 2.7% Lower 10% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% Median 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 2.8% 3.1% 3.5% Lower 10% -0.2% 0.4% 0.9% Median 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 2.5% 2.7% 3.2% Lower 10% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% Median 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% Lower 10% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Median 1.8% 1.9% 2.4% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% Lower 10% 1.3% 1.8% 2.3% Median 2.0% 2.6% 3.2% Panelist 15 Upper 10% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% Lower 10% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% Median 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. October 2011 2015 2016 2021 2026 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 3.0% 1.5% 2.0% 3.0% 1.5% 2.5% 3.0% 1.5% 2.5% 4.1% 1.1% 2.6% 4.8% 1.2% 3.0% 4.5% 0.5% 2.5% 4.6% 0.4% 2.5% 3.2% 1.0% 2.2% 3.0% 0.8% 2.2% 3.0% 0.8% 2.0% 3.0% 0.8% 2.0% 3.2% 0.4% 1.7% 3.8% 0.3% 1.7% 4.1% 0.2% 1.5% 6.0% -0.3% 1.5% 3.5% 1.0% 2.3% 3.4% 1.2% 2.4% 3.4% 0.6% 1.9% 3.4% 0.5% 2.0% 3.2% 0.8% 2.0% 3.1% 0.8% 1.9% 3.1% 0.4% 1.7% 3.4% 0.3% 1.8% 3.5% 1.5% 2.6% 3.5% 1.0% 2.1% 3.5% 1.0% 2.1% 3.5% 1.0% 2.1% 4.1% 1.9% 3.0% 4.2% 2.0% 3.1% 4.6% 2.4% 3.5% 5.1% 2.9% 4.0% 2.8% 1.0% 2.0% 2.9% 1.0% 2.0% 2.8% 0.8% 1.9% 2.8% 0.8% 1.9% 3.7% 0.8% 2.0% 3.9% 1.0% 1.9% 3.9% 0.8% 2.3% 3.6% 0.8% 2.4% 3.2% 0.8% 2.0% 3.1% 0.8% 1.9% 3.1% 0.4% 1.7% 3.4% 0.3% 1.8% 3.5% 1.0% 2.4% 3.3% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.5% 2.8% 3.8% 6.5% 3.3% 4.4% 7.5% 3.8% 5.0% 8.5% 4.3% 5.6% 2.8% 1.7% 2.2% 2.8% 1.7% 2.2% 2.7% 1.5% 2.0% 2.8% 1.5% 2.0% 19 Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic Growth Rate 2012 2013 2014 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 6.0% 6.0% 7.5% Lower 10% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Median 5.0% 4.5% 4.5% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 3.5% 5.2% 7.1% Lower 10% 1.7% 1.9% 1.3% Median 2.6% 3.0% 3.5% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 3.5% 4.5% 4.5% Lower 10% 1.7% 1.7% 1.0% Median 2.8% 2.8% 2.5% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% Lower 10% 0.6% 0.0% -0.4% Median 2.0% 2.5% 2.2% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% Lower 10% 2.0% 2.0% 1.2% Median 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% Lower 10% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% Median 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 4.0% 4.0% 4.5% Lower 10% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% Median 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 7.8% 7.7% 7.4% Lower 10% 1.2% 1.1% 0.8% Median 4.5% 4.4% 4.1% Panelist 9 Upper 10% Not Provided Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% 3.0% 3.1% 3.4% Lower 10% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% Median 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 3.0% 3.1% 3.3% Lower 10% -3.0% -1.4% 0.4% Median 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 6.0% 7.5% 7.5% Lower 10% 4.0% 4.5% 4.5% Median 5.0% 6.0% 6.0% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 4.0% 4.5% 4.0% Lower 10% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Median 3.0% 3.5% 3.0% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Lower 10% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Median 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% Panelist 15 Upper 10% 9.0% 10.0% 7.0% Lower 10% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% Median 6.0% 7.0% 4.0% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. October 2011 2015 2016 2021 2026 7.5% 3.0% 4.5% 7.5% 3.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2.0% 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 3.0% 6.3% 1.0% 3.0% 6.7% 0.7% 3.0% 6.2% -0.2% 3.0% 7.0% -1.0% 3.0% 4.5% 0.8% 2.5% 4.5% 0.5% 2.5% 4.0% -1.0% 2.0% 4.0% -1.0% 2.0% 5.1% -0.8% 2.0% 5.2% -1.0% 1.8% 5.3% -1.5% 1.5% 5.4% -2.0% 1.5% 4.8% 1.0% 2.6% 4.8% 0.5% 2.4% 4.4% 0.0% 2.2% 4.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.5% 1.5% 3.0% 7.0% 1.0% 3.0% 7.0% 0.5% 3.0% 7.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.5% 0.0% 3.0% 4.5% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 0.0% 2.0% 7.1% 0.5% 3.8% 6.9% 0.3% 3.6% 6.3% 0.0% 3.0% 6.3% 0.0% 3.0% 3.6% 1.8% 3.0% 3.5% 1.5% 2.7% 3.5% 1.0% 2.4% 3.5% 1.0% 2.0% 3.6% 0.8% 2.0% 4.5% 1.0% 2.4% 5.1% 1.1% 2.6% 4.9% 1.1% 2.7% 7.5% 4.5% 6.5% 7.0% 3.5% 5.5% 7.0% 3.0% 4.0% 7.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% 0.0% 1.1% 5.0% 0.0% 1.1% 5.0% 0.0% 1.1% 5.0% 0.0% 1.1% 6.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 1.0% 2.5% 5.0% 1.0% 2.8% 5.0% 1.0% 2.6% 20 Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.5% 1.0% 2.0% 2.5% 1.0% 2.5% 3.0% 1.0% 2.5% 3.5% 1.0% 2.5% 3.4% 0.0% 1.7% 3.4% 1.0% 2.2% 4.1% 1.3% 2.7% 4.6% 1.8% 3.2% 5.4% 2.0% 3.7% 5.3% 0.7% 3.0% 5.7% -0.1% 2.8% 2.5% 1.0% 1.5% 3.3% 1.0% 2.2% 4.0% 1.5% 3.0% 4.5% 2.0% 3.2% 4.5% 2.0% 3.2% 4.5% 1.0% 2.5% 4.0% 0.0% 2.2% 2.1% -0.2% 0.9% 2.7% 0.5% 1.8% 3.9% 0.9% 2.3% 4.1% 1.3% 2.8% 4.5% 1.5% 3.0% 4.8% -0.5% 2.5% 5.1% -1.0% 2.5% 2.7% 1.0% 1.8% 3.2% 1.5% 2.4% 4.6% 2.0% 3.2% 5.1% 2.2% 3.6% 5.4% 2.4% 3.8% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.6% 0.0% 2.6% 2.5% 0.5% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.5% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 4.5% 2.5% 3.0% 4.5% 2.5% 3.0% 4.5% 2.0% 2.5% 4.5% 2.0% 2.5% 1.8% 1.2% 1.5% 2.8% 1.0% 2.0% 3.8% 0.5% 2.8% 4.3% 0.5% 3.2% 4.4% 0.0% 3.0% 3.5% -0.5% 2.0% 3.5% -0.5% 1.8% 4.1% 2.1% 3.1% 4.1% 2.1% 3.1% 4.2% 2.2% 3.2% 3.4% 1.4% 2.4% 3.2% 1.2% 2.2% 2.8% 0.8% 1.8% 2.5% 0.5% 1.5% 1.8% 0.0% 1.5% 2.0% 0.2% 1.8% 2.5% 0.5% 2.0% 3.0% 0.8% 2.1% 3.5% 1.0% 2.2% 3.0% 0.5% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.8% 2.4% -0.6% 1.4% 3.3% 1.4% 2.1% 3.7% 1.2% 2.2% 4.8% 1.6% 3.6% 6.5% 1.7% 3.2% 7.2% 1.4% 4.8% 6.9% 1.8% 4.7% 2.0% 0.0% 1.5% 4.0% 0.5% 2.0% 4.5% 0.5% 3.0% 4.5% 1.0% 3.5% 5.0% 1.5% 3.5% 4.0% 2.0% 2.8% 3.5% 1.8% 2.8% 2.5% 1.0% 2.0% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 4.5% 2.0% 3.5% 4.0% 2.0% 2.5% 4.5% 2.0% 3.5% 4.5% 1.0% 3.0% 4.5% 1.0% 2.5% 4.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.5% 1.0% 2.5% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% Not Provided Panelist 14 Upper 10% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% Lower 10% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% Median 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% Panelist 15 Upper 10% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Lower 10% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% Median 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. October 2011 5.5% 0.0% 0.8% 3.5% 1.0% 2.5% 21 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY NOMINAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 15.6% 14.9% 9.7% 9.8% 13.5% 16.7% 19.5% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 17.7% 15.3% 10.1% 8.4% 12.8% 13.1% 10.7% 9.0% 8.0% 7.4% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 5.9% 4.8% 5.6% 6.7% 9.1% 10.4% 9.7% 9.5% 10.1% 8.8% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 10.8% 2010 8.0% 2011* 4.5% 2012 4.4% 2013 7.1% 2014 10.0% 2015 10.7% 2016 7.7% 2017 3.2% 2018 -0.9% 2019 2.0% 2.7% FY 1973-2009 data from BEA; FY 2010-2012 data from Phoenix Blue Chip. FY 2013-2026, ADOT staff estimates. Data include inflation rate. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Percent Change 25.00% 0.06 0.04 20.00% 0.02 15.00% 0 10.00% -0.02 -0.04 5.00% -0.06 0.00% -0.08 2010 2011 2008 2009 2006 2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1991 1992 1993 1994 1989 1990 1987 1988 1986 1985 1984 1983 1974 1973 1976 1975 1978 1977 1980 1979 1982 1981 -5.00% -0.1 Fiscal FiscalYear Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2011 80% Range Historical Std. Min. Max. Mean Dev. Lower Upper -0.9% 7.7% 2.9% 3.1% 0.3% 5.9% -0.9% 10.7% 5.1% 3.7% 1.7% 10.1% -0.9% 19.5% 9.3% 4.4% 4.1% 15.4% 22 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 6.4% 5.2% 3.0% 2.1% 3.9% 4.4% 4.9% 4.4% 3.0% 2.9% 3.2% 4.4% 5.3% 4.2% 4.5% 2.9% 2.6% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1.4% 3.1% 3.4% 3.8% 4.9% 5.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2.9% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 3.4% 3.2% 2.4% 2.4% 1.5% 0.3% 2010 2011* 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0.1% 1.5% FY 1973-2009 from U. S. Census Bureau. FY 2000-2010 interim re-benchmark figures from ADOA Office of Employment and Population Statistics. FY 2011*-2012 based on Phoenix Blue Chip growth rate estimates while FY 2013-2015 ADOT staff estimates. FY 2016-2026 based on ADOC, Arizona Population Projections FY 2006-2055 growth rates dated March 31, 2006. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 7.0% Percent Change 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 0.0% Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2011 Historical Min. Max. 0.1% 2.4% 0.1% 3.4% 0.1% 6.4% Mean 1.2% 2.0% 3.3% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 1.0% 0.2% 2.1% 1.2% 0.3% 3.2% 1.3% 1.5% 4.9% 23 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 16.1% 0.2% -16.4% -12.4% 13.7% 34.0% 29.7% 5.5% -4.9% -4.5% 6.1% 22.3% 20.0% 8.8% -4.0% -7.3% -7.0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 -7.1% -5.6% -1.4% 7.0% 14.5% 15.4% 9.6% 6.0% 8.1% 9.3% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -1.0% -2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 6.3% 12.9% 12.4% 1.5% -11.7% -23.7% 2010 2011* 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -24.3% -8.3% FY 2008 and prior from BEA. FY 2009-2011* based on Phoenix Blue Chip Forecast, 1st Quarter 2011. FY 2012-2026 based on ADOT estimates. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 40.0% Percent Change 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 -30.0% Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2011 Historical Min. Max. Mean -24.3% 1.5% -13.3% -24.3% 12.9% -3.3% -24.3% 34.0% 3.0% Std. Dev. 10.9% 13.4% 12.9% 80% Range Lower Upper -24.0% -2.4% -23.8% 12.5% -11.9% 16.8% 24 HISTORICAL DATA 30 YEAR MORTGAGE RATE HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1972 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 7.5% 7.5% 8.6% 9.4% 8.9% 8.8% 9.1% 10.3% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 12.9% 14.6% 17.3% 14.0% 13.6% 13.5% 11.2% 9.8% 10.5% 10.6% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 10.1% 9.8% 8.8% 7.9% 7.5% 8.6% 7.6% 7.9% 7.2% 6.9% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 8.1% 7.5% 6.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.8% 6.2% 6.3% 6.2% 5.6% 2010 2011* 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 4.9% 4.6% FY 1972-2010 data from Federal Reserve. FY 2011*-2026 based on Global Insight, 1st Quarter 2011, Trend Forecast. * Estimate 2009 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2007 2006 2005 1994 1993 1997 1996 1995 1999 1998 1997 2001 2000 1999 2003 2002 2001 2005 2004 2003 1992 1991 1995 1990 1989 1993 1991 1988 1987 1989 1986 1985 1987 1984 1983 1974 1973 1979 1976 1975 1981 1978 1977 1983 1980 1979 1985 1982 1981 1972 1971 1977 1970 1969 1975 18.0% 20.0% 18.0% 18.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1968 1967 1973 Percent PercentChange Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Year Fiscal HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2011 Historical Min. Max. 4.6% 6.3% 4.6% 6.9% 4.6% 17.3% Mean 5.5% 5.8% 8.9% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 0.8% 4.7% 6.3% 0.7% 4.9% 6.4% 2.9% 5.9% 13.5% 25 HISTORICAL DATA PHOENIX CPI GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 5.6% 7.6% 15.3% 12.2% 6.5% 8.9% 12.4% 14.9% 12.5% 7.7% 3.4% 3.7% 5.4% 3.1% 2.7% 4.1% 4.5% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 5.2% 4.1% 2.7% 3.4% 3.7% 4.2% 5.1% 4.8% 4.0% 3.6% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 3.2% 2.4% 1.0% 1.7% 2.4% 2.3% 2.8% 2.6% 4.6% -0.3% 2010 2011* 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1.5% 1.7% FY 1972-1999 from ASU and FY 2000-2010 regressed from U.S. and Phoenix Mesa, AZ CPI (2002-2010) data from BLS. FY 2011*-2026 estimates regressed from U.S. CPI based on Global Insight, 1st Quarter 2011, Trend Forecast. 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 1973 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2011 Historical Min. Max. -0.3% 4.6% -0.3% 4.6% -0.3% 15.3% Mean 2.0% 2.0% 5.1% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 1.8% 0.4% 3.8% 1.3% 0.9% 3.0% 3.8% 1.7% 12.2% 26 HISTORICAL DATA SKY HARBOR PASSENGER TRAFFIC GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 3.6% 8.4% 12.2% 8.4% 2.4% 5.7% 12.2% 16.1% 18.7% 5.0% -2.8% 6.8% 13.9% 20.6% 24.8% 19.6% 14.8% 10.9% 8.1% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 6.4% 3.4% 0.9% 3.3% 7.7% 8.6% 8.9% 4.8% 2.2% 4.6% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 6.6% 2.7% -0.7% 2.8% 5.4% 4.9% 2.4% 1.2% -1.8% -5.3% 2010 2011* 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -1.7% 2.4% FY 1971-2009 data obtained from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. FY 2011*-2026 estimates are from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport staff. 2011 2009 2010 2004 0.18 18.0% 30.0% 0.3 0.16 16.0% 25.0% 0.25 0.14 14.0% 20.0% 0.2 0.12 12.0% 0.15 15.0% 0.1 10.0% 0.1 10.0% 8.0% 0.08 5.0% 0.05 6.0% 0.06 0.0% 0 4.0% 0.04 -0.05 -5.0% 2.0% 0.02 -0.1 0.0% -10.0% 0 1973 1972 1971 1974 1975 1973 1974 1977 1976 1975 1976 1976 1979 1977 1978 1978 1979 1981 1980 1980 1980 1981 1983 1982 1982 1983 1982 1984 1985 1985 1984 1986 1984 1987 1987 1986 1988 1989 1986 1989 1990 1988 1991 1988 1991 1992 1990 1993 1990 1994 1995 1992 1992 1996 1997 1997 1994 1998 1994 1999 1999 2000 1996 1996 2001 2001 2002 2003 1998 2003 2004 2005 2000 2005 2006 2007 2002 2007 2008 2009 Percent PercentChange Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Year Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Year Year Year Year Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2011 Historical Min. Max. Mean -5.3% 2.4% -1.1% -5.3% 5.4% 1.0% -5.3% 24.8% 6.8% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 3.0% -3.9% 1.9% 3.3% -2.2% 5.0% 6.7% -0.7% 16.1% 27 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY TOTAL NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 7.8% 5.9% 8.5% 11.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.5% 6.9% 11.1% 11.8% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 6.9% 3.4% 1.5% 2.9% 8.6% 10.2% 6.9% 4.1% 4.7% 4.1% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 3.0% 5.8% 6.9% 7.2% 6.3% 5.4% 5.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 4.0% 2.4% 0.6% 0.7% 2.7% 5.1% 5.8% 3.5% -0.4% -5.2% 2010 2011* 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -5.1% -0.6% FY 1970-2010 data from Bureau of Labor Statistics. FY 2011*-2012 Arizona Workforce growth rate estimates. FY 2013-2026 ADOT staff estimates. 2004 2011 2010 2006 2007 2002 2008 2009 2004 2005 2000 1992 1993 1992 1992 1994 1995 1994 1994 1996 1997 1998 1999 1996 1996 2000 2001 1998 2002 2003 18.0% 0.18 0.13 13.0% 16.0% 0.16 0.08 8.0% 14.0% 0.14 12.0% 0.12 0.03 3.0% 10.0% 0.1 0.08 8.0% -0.02 -2.0% 0.06 6.0% 0.04 4.0% -0.07 -7.0% 0.02 2.0% -0.12 -12.0% 0.0% 0 1964 1965 1966 1974 1967 1974 1968 1969 1976 1970 1976 1971 1972 1978 1973 1978 1974 1975 1980 1980 1976 1977 1978 1982 1979 1982 1980 1981 1984 1984 1982 1983 1986 1984 1986 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988 1988 1989 1990 1990 1991 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Fiscal FiscalYear Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2011 Historical Min. Max. -5.2% 3.5% -5.2% 5.8% -5.2% 11.8% Mean -1.6% 0.7% 4.6% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 3.6% -5.1% 1.9% 3.8% -5.1% 5.2% 3.7% 0.3% 8.6% 28