Arizona Department of Transportation MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX Forecasting Process & Results FY 2011-2026 Financial Management Services October 2010 MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES Introduction In 1985, the voters of Maricopa County approved Proposition 300 to establish a onehalf cent transportation excise (sales) tax for construction of a regional freeway system within the county. The half cent sales tax was approved for a period of 20 years and ended on December 31, 2005. On November 2, 2004, Maricopa County’s voters approved Proposition 400 which extended the one-half cent sales tax for another 20 years through December 31, 2025. The sales tax extension will be used for construction of new freeways, widening of existing freeways and highways, improvements to the arterial street system, regional bus service and other special transportation services, and high capacity transit services such as light rail, bus rapid transit and express buses. This document contains the official forecast of expected values for the Maricopa County Transportation Excise Tax for the period FY 2011–2026 as developed by the Arizona Department of Transportation in cooperation with the Maricopa Association of Governments, Valley Metro and Valley Metro Rail. Background Since 1986, the Arizona Department of Transportation (the Department) has used a comprehensive regression-based econometric model to estimate Transportation Excise Tax revenues for Maricopa County. These revenues, which flow into the Regional Area Road Fund (RARF), are the major funding source for the Maricopa County Freeway Program. The revenue forecast is highly dependent on estimates of independent variables. In order to deal with variability between estimated and actual values, the Department introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies on probability analysis and the independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. The process results in a series of forecasts, with specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate. Enhanced forecasting accuracy was achieved in July 1996, when Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB) working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State University, incorporated economic data and independent variables which were not included in the 1986 model. October 2010 1 In September 2005, the Department had HDR Decision Economics re-examine the structure of the RARF modal and re-evaluate the set of explanatory variables used in the production of the RARF revenue forecasts. Three new variables (U. S. Housing Starts, Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic and Maricopa County Total NonFarm Employment Growth) were added to the existing list of variables used in the RARF regression equations. The independent variables contained in the updated model are: • • • • • • • • Maricopa County real income growth per capita Maricopa County population growth Maricopa County construction employment growth Phoenix Consumer Price Index (CPI) U. S. housing start growth Sky Harbor passenger traffic growth Maricopa County total non-farm employment growth Prime Interest Rate Risk Analysis Panel The Risk Analysis Process (RAP) relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economists to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In August 2010, an expert panel of fifteen economists representing public, private, and academic sectors submitted their individual estimates of the model’s independent variables and comments on the future economic outlook. Based on the panelists’ input, the model produced a series of forecasts with associated probabilities of occurrence. The panelists’ inputs are reflected in the attached tables at the back of this report. Model Results This year’s panel inputs produced a mean forecast of $7,932.3 million for the period FY 2011-2026 with a compound growth rate (CGR) of 6.4 percent. The Department’s Official Forecast for FY 2011-2026 totals $7,337.8 million with a compound growth rate of 5.8 percent. The forecast result is $2,208.8 million lower than last year’s forecast due mainly to the lower revenue base of $299.0 million in FY 2010 and slower economic activity in FY 2011-2015. For the remaining years, FY 2016-2026, the estimated revenue growth rates are projected to be comparable with last year’s forecast. The Official Forecast incorporates the 50 percent confidence interval for each year of the forecast. The FY 2011 forecast of $301.0 million was developed by ADOT staff independently of the econometric model using time series techniques, and historical and projected growth rates from the model. October 2010 2 FY 2011 Official Forecast Results (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026/1 Total Average CGR Mean Forecast $305.8 321.8 343.9 371.3 401.1 430.3 459.8 489.6 520.4 552.0 584.3 618.4 654.6 692.8 733.3 452.9 $7,932.3 6.4% Official Forecast $301.0 310.4 327.3 349.2 374.2 401.1 427.5 451.6 479.4 508.8 535.5 565.4 598.0 630.9 666.0 411.5 $7,337.8 5.8% Confidence Level N/A 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Note: Amount in current dollars Totals may not add due to individual rounding /1. Relects the end of the one-half cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025 October 2010 3 For comparison purposes, the September 2009 and October 2010 Official Forecasts are shown below: FY 2011 Comparative Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026/1 Sept. 09 Official Forecast $321.9 347.0 379.1 435.0 492.2 524.1 557.3 594.8 633.1 671.1 711.2 759.4 803.6 851.9 905.0 559.9 Oct. 10 Official Forecast $301.0 310.4 327.3 349.2 374.2 401.1 427.5 451.6 479.4 508.8 535.5 565.4 598.0 630.9 666.0 411.5 Total Average CGR $9,546.6 7.6% $7,337.8 5.8% Difference ($20.9) (36.6) (51.8) (85.8) (118.0) (123.0) (129.8) (143.2) (153.7) (162.3) (175.7) (194.0) (205.6) (221.0) (239.0) (148.4) ($2,208.8) Note: Amount in current dollars. Totals may not add due to individual rounding. /1 Reflects the end of the one-half cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025 October 2010 4 Summary The official forecast for FY 2011-2026 totals $7,337.8 million, a decrease of $2,208.8 million from the September 2009 Official Forecast. Compared to last year, the Risk Analysis Process panel members forecasted lower growth for FY 2011-2014 and then returned to growth rates similar to the September 2009 panel during FY 2015-2026 for all of the independent variables, except for real per capita income, Phoenix CPI and prime interest rate. They predicted lower real per capita income growth from FY 2011-2015 but then higher growth rates from FY 20162026. When compared to the September 2009 forecast, the panel expects the growth rate for the prime interest rate and Phoenix CPI to be lower throughout the forecast period. From FY 20112014, the panel members were concerned with the continued depressed real estate market, slower job growth and lower population growth in Maricopa County, but expect the economic conditions to improve and return to a near normal growth from FY 2015-2026. Supplementary Information The remainder of this report presents supplementary information on the RAP model, the values of the independent variables forecast by the expert panel, and detailed results of the Risk Analysis Process. While the Official Forecast period is FY 2011-2026, panel inputs were requested for FY 2011-2016, 2021 and 2026. Data displayed for other than the requested years, has been extrapolated. October 2010 5 RARF Official Revenue Forecast With Category Detail by Fiscal Year (Dollars in Millions) Retail Rental Contracting Utilities Restaurant/ Real Bar Property $27.5 $29.7 $31.5 $36.2 Rental Personal Property $12.0 Other Total $17.9 $301.0 35.9 37.1 39.0 41.6 44.3 46.9 49.3 52.5 55.0 57.9 61.2 64.6 12.7 13.5 14.3 15.4 16.5 17.6 18.7 20.0 21.2 22.6 24.0 25.6 19.6 20.3 21.1 21.9 22.9 24.1 25.2 26.3 27.6 28.9 30.4 31.8 310.4 327.3 349.2 374.2 401.1 427.5 451.6 479.4 508.8 535.5 565.4 598.0 61.7 65.5 40.2 68.4 73.2 45.2 27.0 28.6 17.5 32.9 34.4 20.8 630.9 666.0 411.5 $725.1 $808.3 $307.2 $406.1 $7,337.8 Fiscal Year 2011 $146.2 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 150.6 160.0 171.4 184.8 199.8 214.2 226.6 240.8 257.1 270.3 286.3 303.4 29.8 32.5 36.6 40.5 44.3 48.1 51.7 56.0 60.2 64.3 68.1 72.4 29.9 30.6 31.6 32.6 33.6 34.7 35.8 36.8 38.0 39.2 40.4 41.7 31.9 33.3 35.2 37.4 39.7 41.9 44.3 47.0 49.7 52.3 55.0 58.5 2024 2025 2026/1 320.4 337.8 210.0 77.5 82.4 51.3 43.0 44.1 26.5 Total: 11-26 $3,679.7 $843.2 $568.2 Note: Amount in current dollars. Totals may not add due to individual rounding. /1 Reflects the end of the one-half cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025 October 2010 6 October 2010 RARF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year Mean 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2011 $305.8 $356.0 $335.1 $321.3 $309.8 $300.4 2012 321.8 406.8 369.4 344.9 326.0 310.4 2013 343.9 458.1 406.2 373.7 348.8 327.3 2014 371.3 512.5 447.3 408.1 375.8 349.2 2015 401.1 565.7 490.0 443.1 405.6 374.2 2016 430.3 615.2 532.8 476.5 434.5 401.1 2017 459.8 664.9 570.9 511.2 463.5 427.5 2018 489.6 711.5 610.8 544.6 493.4 451.6 2019 520.4 759.8 651.0 578.8 524.7 479.4 2020 552.0 810.4 691.6 613.0 557.2 508.8 2021 584.3 867.2 733.9 650.9 590.1 535.5 2022 618.4 921.8 774.6 686.7 623.2 565.4 2023 654.6 978.2 822.6 727.3 660.5 598.0 2024 692.8 1,040.2 873.4 773.5 699.4 630.9 2025 733.3 1,103.4 926.1 819.5 738.6 666.0 2026/1 776.4 1,171.6 983.9 866.1 780.0 705.5 /1 Totals reflect the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026, but the transportation excise tax expires December 31, 2025. 60% 70% 80% 90% $291.6 295.4 307.5 326.5 349.0 370.8 392.4 415.9 440.5 466.5 489.5 518.7 547.6 579.2 609.5 643.8 $282.9 281.8 289.8 304.1 322.4 341.1 362.7 383.0 405.5 426.5 450.9 476.6 501.8 527.4 555.9 586.7 $273.6 267.6 271.3 281.8 296.8 314.4 331.9 352.5 371.6 390.7 410.5 432.9 453.9 476.3 500.8 527.2 $262.8 250.2 248.7 255.5 264.9 278.4 293.4 310.6 327.5 345.4 360.1 378.3 398.6 420.4 439.3 464.2 7 RARF Official Revenue Forecast Revenue Distribution (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 /2 TOTALS Regional Area Road Fund (RARF) /1 Freeways Arterial Streets (56.2%) (10.5 %) $169.2 $31.6 174.4 32.6 183.9 34.4 196.2 36.7 210.3 39.3 225.4 42.1 240.2 44.9 253.8 47.4 269.5 50.3 286.0 53.4 301.0 56.2 317.7 59.4 336.1 62.8 354.6 66.2 374.3 69.9 231.3 43.2 $4,123.9 $770.5 Public Transportation Fund (33.3%) $100.2 103.4 109.0 116.3 124.6 133.6 142.4 150.4 159.6 169.4 178.3 188.3 199.1 210.1 221.8 137.0 $2,443.5 Total $301.0 310.4 327.3 349.2 374.2 401.1 427.5 451.6 479.4 508.8 535.5 565.4 598.0 630.9 666.0 411.5 $7,337.8 Note: 1/ The Regional Public Transportation Authority received a portion of the excise tax funds for transit cost which is adjusted annually by the GDP price deflator. Beginning July 1, 2005, this transfer from RARF is divided equally between MAG and the Public Transportation Fund for planning and administering the regional transportation plan. 2/ Reflects the end of the one-half cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025. Totals may not add due to rounding. Distribution Per Laws 2004, Chapter 2 (HB 2456), the sales tax extension will be distributed as follows: 1. 56.2 percent to the Regional Area Road (RARF) fund for freeways and other routes in the state highway systems, including capital expense and maintenance. 2. 10.5 percent to the RARF fund for major arterial streets and intersection improvements, including capital expenses and implementation studies. 3. 33.3 percent to the Public Transportation Fund for: (a). Capital costs, maintenance and operation of public transportation classifications. (b). Capital costs and utility relocation costs associated with a light rail public transit system. October 2010 8 Official Forecast Results (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 /1 Total Mean Forecast $305.8 321.8 343.9 371.3 401.1 430.3 459.8 489.6 520.4 552.0 584.3 618.4 654.6 692.8 733.3 452.9 $7,932.3 Official Forecast $301.0 310.4 327.3 349.2 374.2 401.1 427.5 451.6 479.4 508.8 535.5 565.4 598.0 630.9 666.0 411.5 $7,337.8 80% Conf. Interval $273.6 267.6 271.3 281.8 296.8 314.4 331.9 352.5 371.6 390.7 410.5 432.9 453.9 476.3 500.8 307.5 $5,734.2 20% Conf. Interval $335.1 369.4 406.2 447.3 490.0 532.8 570.9 610.8 651.0 691.6 733.9 774.6 822.6 873.4 926.1 573.9 $9,809.5 Note: 1/ FY 2026 totals are adjusted to reflect the transportation excise tax extension expires on December 31, 2025. Totals may not add due to individual rounding. $1,600 Millions of Current Dollars $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Mean Fcst October 2010 Official Fcst 80% Conf. Interval 20% Conf. Interval 9 Maricopa County Real Per Capita Income 6.0% 4.0% Growth Rate 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Maricopa County Population 4.0% Growth Rate 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median October 2010 Lower 10% Upper 10% 10 Maricopa County Construction Employment 20.0% 15.0% Growth Rate 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Prime Interest Rate 14.0% 12.0% Rate 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median October 2010 Lower 10% Upper 10% 11 Phoenix CPI 6.0% 5.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% U.S. Housing Start 40.0% 30.0% Growth Rate 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median October 2010 Lower 10% Upper 10% 12 Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic 8.0% Growth Rate 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment 8.0% 6.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Fiscal Year Median October 2010 Lower 10% Upper 10% 13 Mean Panelist Data Values FY 2011 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2012 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2013 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2014 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2015 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2016 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2021 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2026 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Real Income Growth /1 Population Growth /1 Const. Employment Growth /1 Prime U. S. Interest Phoenix Housing Start Rate CPI Growth Growth Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic Growth Total Non-Farm Employment Growth /1 0.78% -2.21% -0.87% 1.81% 0.17% 0.92% 2.76% -9.05% -3.11% 5.04% 2.64% 3.68% 2.27% 0.05% 1.17% 22.95% -0.07% 11.82% 2.59% -1.49% 0.71% 1.39% -1.98% -0.27% 1.58% -1.43% 0.01% 2.29% 0.68% 1.48% 8.47% -4.13% 2.56% 5.89% 3.15% 4.36% 2.60% 0.21% 1.51% 27.73% 2.78% 15.88% 3.23% -0.94% 1.35% 2.91% -0.26% 1.55% 2.21% -0.89% 0.93% 2.78% 1.09% 1.94% 14.79% 0.50% 8.22% 6.74% 3.70% 5.20% 3.23% 0.63% 1.90% 19.50% 1.77% 10.73% 3.70% -0.38% 1.78% 3.89% 0.65% 2.34% 2.66% -0.22% 1.48% 3.16% 1.44% 2.31% 16.96% 2.50% 9.73% 7.35% 4.02% 5.69% 3.70% 0.89% 2.34% 13.78% -2.18% 5.80% 4.08% 0.04% 2.02% 4.69% 1.19% 2.89% 3.17% 0.16% 1.82% 3.28% 1.52% 2.49% 15.61% 1.57% 7.64% 8.07% 4.46% 6.14% 3.88% 1.01% 2.52% 13.07% -4.05% 5.00% 4.29% 0.14% 2.14% 5.03% 1.38% 3.11% 3.17% -0.02% 1.88% 3.33% 1.43% 2.40% 13.37% -0.53% 5.90% 8.47% 4.64% 6.43% 3.78% 0.93% 2.51% 11.55% -5.57% 3.43% 4.56% 0.11% 2.28% 4.99% 1.40% 3.21% 3.39% -0.56% 1.62% 3.04% 1.19% 2.07% 12.41% -5.91% 3.87% 8.61% 4.27% 6.28% 3.99% 0.65% 2.44% 10.21% -8.63% 2.16% 4.69% -0.71% 2.19% 5.05% 0.23% 2.77% 3.34% -0.62% 1.46% 2.92% 0.98% 1.85% 12.42% -5.93% 3.65% 8.71% 4.27% 6.36% 4.21% 0.59% 2.37% 10.59% -8.82% 1.98% 4.96% -0.49% 2.21% 5.01% 0.24% 2.71% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates with the exception of prime rates which are nominal rates. /1 Data for Maricopa County October 2010 14 Per Capita Income Growth Rate 2011 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 0.50% Lower 10% -2.00% Median -1.00% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 0.00% Lower 10% -2.00% Median -0.50% Panelist 3 Upper 10% -0.50% Lower 10% -1.50% Median -1.00% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 0.00% Lower 10% -2.00% Median -1.00% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 1.00% Lower 10% -2.00% Median -0.50% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 0.50% Lower 10% -3.00% Median -1.00% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 3.00% Lower 10% -1.50% Median -0.30% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 0.70% Lower 10% -1.40% Median -0.20% Panelist 9 Upper 10% 0.50% Lower 10% -2.50% Median -1.50% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 0.50% Lower 10% -2.70% Median -1.10% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 1.00% Lower 10% -2.00% Median -1.00% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 1.00% Lower 10% -3.00% Median -1.00% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 1.00% Lower 10% -2.40% Median -1.00% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 0.50% Lower 10% -2.20% Median -1.00% Panelist 15 Upper 10% 2.00% Lower 10% -3.00% Median -1.00% All data in the above table N/A means not available October 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 0.50% -2.00% -0.50% 1.50% -2.00% 0.00% 1.50% -2.00% 0.50% 2.00% -2.00% 0.50% 1.50% 0.00% 1.00% 1.50% 0.00% 1.00% 1.50% 0.00% 1.00% 0.00% -2.00% 0.00% 0.50% -1.50% 0.50% 0.50% -1.00% 0.50% 1.00% -1.00% 1.00% 1.00% -1.00% 1.00% 1.50% -1.00% 1.00% 1.50% -1.00% 1.00% 0.50% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% -1.00% 0.20% 1.00% -0.50% 0.50% 1.50% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 0.25% 1.25% 2.25% 0.25% 1.30% 2.25% 0.50% 1.30% 1.00% -1.00% 0.00% 2.50% -1.00% 1.50% 3.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 1.80% 2.80% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 0.00% 1.70% 2.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.50% 0.50% 2.00% 3.00% 1.50% 2.00% 3.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 1.00% 1.50% 1.90% -1.60% 0.00% 2.70% -1.00% 1.60% 4.00% 1.00% 2.20% 4.50% 1.60% 2.50% 4.00% 0.50% 1.90% 6.00% -1.80% 1.50% 5.00% -2.00% 1.20% 3.00% -1.50% -0.80% 3.00% -1.50% N/A 3.00% -1.50% N/A 3.00% -1.50% N/A 3.00% -1.50% N/A 3.00% -1.50% N/A 3.00% -1.50% N/A 1.20% -1.00% 0.30% 1.70% -0.20% 1.20% 3.00% 0.80% 2.00% 3.20% 1.30% 2.20% 3.00% 0.50% 1.80% 3.20% -1.20% 1.80% 3.20% -1.30% 1.60% 1.50% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% -1.50% 1.00% 3.00% -1.00% 2.00% 3.50% -1.00% 2.50% 3.50% -1.00% 3.00% 3.50% -1.00% 2.50% 3.50% -1.00% 2.00% 1.60% -2.00% -0.70% 2.20% -0.70% 0.40% 3.80% 0.90% 2.20% 4.20% 1.20% 2.70% 5.00% 1.50% 2.90% 5.50% 0.70% 2.00% 5.30% 0.50% 1.90% 1.50% -1.00% 0.00% 2.00% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.50% 0.50% 1.50% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.50% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 1.70% 2.00% -2.00% 0.00% 3.20% -0.80% 1.20% 3.50% -0.50% 0.20% 3.50% -0.50% 0.20% 4.50% -0.50% 2.00% 4.00% -1.00% 0.20% 4.00% -1.00% 0.20% 3.00% -1.40% 0.50% 3.00% -0.60% 1.00% 3.50% -0.60% 1.99% 4.00% -0.50% 2.30% 4.00% -0.50% 2.30% 4.00% -0.50% 2.30% 4.50% -0.50% 2.30% 1.50% -1.50% 0.40% 2.30% -1.00% 0.90% 3.10% -0.40% 1.60% 3.60% 0.00% 1.80% 3.50% -1.00% 1.60% 4.20% -1.40% 1.60% 4.90% -2.00% 1.60% 3.00% 4.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 2.50% growth rates. 3.00% 0.50% 2.00% 2.70% -2.00% 2.00% 2.50% -2.00% 1.50% 2.50% 3.00% -1.50% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% are in percentage 15 Maricopa County Population Growth Rate 2011 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 1.5% Lower 10% 0.5% Median 1.0% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 2.0% Lower 10% 0.8% Median 1.2% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 1.5% Lower 10% 1.0% Median 1.3% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 2.4% Lower 10% 0.8% Median 1.0% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 1.5% Lower 10% 0.5% Median 1.0% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 2.2% Lower 10% 0.9% Median 1.8% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 2.2% Lower 10% 0.0% Median 0.7% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 1.7% Lower 10% 1.0% Median 1.3% Panelist 9 Upper 10% 2.0% Lower 10% 1.0% Median 1.5% Panelist 10 Upper 10% -0.1% Lower 10% -2.5% Median -1.1% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 1.5% Lower 10% -0.5% Median 0.5% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 3.0% Lower 10% 0.5% Median 2.0% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 2.4% Lower 10% -0.5% Median 0.0% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 1.9% Lower 10% 0.6% Median 1.2% Panelist 15 Upper 10% 1.5% Lower 10% -1.5% Median 0.5% All data in the above table October 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 2.0% 0.5% 1.5% 3.0% 0.5% 2.0% 3.0% 0.5% 2.5% 3.0% 0.5% 2.5% 2.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.0% 0.8% 1.2% 2.2% 0.8% 1.4% 2.2% 0.8% 1.7% 2.2% 0.5% 1.7% 2.7% 0.5% 1.7% 2.7% 0.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.3% 1.5% 2.3% 1.5% 1.8% 2.5% 1.8% 2.0% 2.5% 1.8% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.8% 2.0% 2.3% 2.6% 1.8% 2.0% 2.5% 1.5% 1.8% 3.0% 2.0% 2.1% 3.0% 2.0% 2.3% 3.1% 2.1% 2.4% 3.1% 2.1% 2.5% 3.0% 1.5% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.7% 2.5% 1.0% 1.5% 3.0% 1.5% 2.0% 3.0% 1.5% 2.5% 3.0% 1.5% 2.5% 3.0% 1.5% 2.0% 3.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.7% 1.6% 2.1% 3.2% 2.0% 2.6% 3.8% 2.4% 2.8% 2.8% 1.9% 2.3% 2.6% 1.4% 2.2% 2.6% 0.7% 1.8% 2.6% 0.4% 1.5% 2.7% 0.5% 1.5% 2.7% 0.5% 2.2% 3.7% 2.0% 3.2% 3.7% 2.0% 3.2% 3.7% 2.0% 3.2% 3.7% 2.0% 3.2% 3.7% 2.0% 3.2% 2.2% 1.2% 1.8% 2.8% 1.5% 2.2% 3.4% 1.6% 2.5% 3.5% 1.9% 2.7% 3.4% 1.9% 2.7% 3.0% 1.7% 2.3% 2.8% 1.3% 2.0% 2.5% 1.2% 2.0% 3.0% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 2.0% 3.0% 3.5% 2.2% 3.5% 3.5% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.5% 2.5% 3.0% 1.5% 2.5% 2.0% 0.0% 0.8% 3.4% 1.5% 2.2% 3.7% 1.5% 2.7% 4.1% 1.9% 3.3% 4.2% 1.8% 3.0% 4.0% 1.4% 2.7% 3.8% 1.3% 2.4% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.5% 0.5% 1.5% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.5% 1.0% 2.0% 2.5% 1.0% 2.0% 3.2% 0.7% 2.2% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.7% 1.5% 2.6% 3.7% 1.5% 2.6% 3.7% 1.5% 2.6% 3.4% 1.0% 2.2% 3.2% 0.8% 2.0% 2.7% 0.0% 1.5% 3.2% 0.0% 1.5% 3.3% 1.0% 1.5% 3.3% 1.5% 1.5% 3.3% 1.0% 1.5% 3.3% 0.7% 1.5% 3.3% 0.7% 1.0% 2.4% 0.9% 1.8% 2.9% 1.1% 2.1% 3.1% 1.5% 2.3% 3.2% 1.5% 2.1% 3.2% 1.3% 2.1% 3.0% 0.9% 1.6% 3.0% 0.5% 1.4% 4.5% 1.0% 2.5% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.5% 0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 4.5% -1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 3.0% are in percentage growth rates. 16 Maricopa County Construction Employment Growth Rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 0.0% 4.0% 6.0% 11.0% 13.0% Lower 10% -5.0% -1.0% -1.0% 0.0% 2.0% Median -1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 8.0% 10.0% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% Lower 10% -10.0% -10.0% -5.0% -5.0% -5.0% Median -5.0% -5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 20.0% 25.0% Lower 10% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% Median -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 15.0% 20.0% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% Lower 10% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 0.0% Median -8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 15.0% Lower 10% -10.0% -5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Median -5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 10.0% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 0.0% 14.0% 30.0% 25.0% 18.0% Lower 10% -12.0% 0.0% 10.0% 9.0% 0.0% Median -6.0% 8.0% 20.0% 16.0% 6.0% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 10.0% 10.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% Lower 10% -5.0% -5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Median 2.0% 2.0% 15.0% 6.0% 6.0% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 5.0% 15.0% 20.0% 20.0% 15.0% Lower 10% -5.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% 0.0% Median -2.0% 5.0% 12.5% 15.0% 8.0% Panelist 9 Upper 10% 1.0% 4.0% 10.0% 15.0% 15.0% Lower 10% -10.0% -4.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% Median -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 7.0% 6.0% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 1.0% 7.8% 13.3% 15.4% 16.1% Lower 10% -7.7% 1.0% 2.5% 2.5% 3.1% Median -2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 7.0% 8.2% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 25.0% 15.0% Lower 10% -7.0% -2.0% 0.0% 7.0% 7.0% Median -5.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 10.0% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 5.0% 13.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% Lower 10% -10.0% -3.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% Median 0.0% 5.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 2.5% 11.7% 21.5% 20.0% 15.0% Lower 10% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% Median -2.7% 6.5% 16.2% 13.5% 6.4% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 1.9% 3.5% 16.0% 17.0% 14.0% Lower 10% -9.0% -5.0% -1.0% 0.0% -1.5% Median -1.5% 2.9% 6.0% 7.5% 4.0% Panelist 15 Upper 10% 5.0% 12.0% 15.0% 15.0% 20.0% Lower 10% -10.0% -8.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.0% Median 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 8.0% 8.0% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. October 2010 2016 2021 2026 11.0% 2.0% 9.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.0% 10.0% -5.0% 2.0% 10.0% 0.0% 3.0% 10.0% 0.0% 3.0% 15.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 4.0% 5.0% 10.0% 4.0% 5.0% 12.0% 5.0% 8.0% 10.0% -10.0% 5.0% 10.0% -10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 0.0% 5.0% 5.0% -5.0% 3.0% 5.0% -5.0% 2.5% 12.0% -2.0% 4.0% 20.0% -15.0% 3.0% 20.0% -15.0% 3.0% 20.0% 0.0% 6.0% 20.0% 0.0% 6.0% 20.0% 0.0% 6.0% 15.0% -5.0% 3.0% 15.0% -10.0% 3.0% 15.0% -10.0% 2.5% 12.0% -2.0% 6.0% 11.0% -3.0% 5.0% 11.0% -5.0% 5.0% 12.5% 1.0% 5.0% 12.2% -0.7% 5.0% 10.8% -1.5% 4.8% 10.0% 5.0% 7.0% 6.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2.0% 4.0% 15.0% -5.0% 5.0% 19.0% -11.0% 4.0% 18.5% -11.5% 3.5% 10.0% -5.0% 4.5% 15.0% -15.0% 3.0% 15.0% -10.0% 2.5% 16.0% -5.0% 4.0% 14.0% -15.0% 2.0% 16.0% -17.0% 2.0% 20.0% 3.0% 10.0% 15.0% -10.0% 5.0% 15.0% -10.0% 4.0% 17 Prime Interest Rate 2011 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 5.0% Lower 10% 0.5% Median 3.5% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 4.0% Lower 10% 2.5% Median 3.0% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 3.5% Lower 10% 2.5% Median 3.0% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 4.0% Lower 10% 2.8% Median 3.3% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 4.0% Lower 10% 3.3% Median 3.5% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 5.0% Lower 10% 3.0% Median 3.8% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 9.3% Lower 10% 3.3% Median 5.3% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 5.4% Lower 10% 2.6% Median 4.0% Panelist 9 Upper 10% 3.5% Lower 10% 3.0% Median 3.2% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 4.9% Lower 10% 2.2% Median 3.5% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 4.5% Lower 10% 3.5% Median 4.0% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 6.0% Lower 10% 2.0% Median 4.0% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 5.5% Lower 10% 2.6% Median 4.0% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 5.0% Lower 10% 3.3% Median 3.5% Panelist 15 Upper 10% 6.0% Lower 10% 2.5% Median 3.5% All data in the above table October 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 5.0% 0.5% 3.5% 6.0% 2.0% 4.0% 7.0% 2.5% 5.0% 9.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 3.0% 6.0% 7.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.0% 2.5% 5.0% 4.0% 2.5% 3.0% 4.0% 2.5% 3.0% 5.0% 2.5% 3.0% 5.0% 2.5% 3.0% 7.0% 3.0% 4.0% 7.0% 3.0% 4.0% 7.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.5% 2.5% 3.3% 3.8% 3.0% 3.5% 4.5% 3.5% 4.0% 5.0% 3.5% 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 4.3% 3.1% 3.6% 4.6% 3.4% 3.8% 5.0% 3.6% 4.2% 5.8% 4.2% 4.8% 6.0% 4.5% 5.2% 6.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2.0% 4.0% 5.0% 3.5% 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 7.0% 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 5.0% 7.0% 8.0% 5.0% 7.0% 7.0% 4.0% 5.0% 8.0% 5.0% 6.5% 8.5% 5.5% 7.5% 9.0% 6.5% 7.5% 9.0% 6.5% 7.8% 10.2% 11.0% 11.0% 4.2% 7.0% 7.0% 6.2% 9.0% 9.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.5% 5.5% 7.8% 7.8% 11.5% 11.3% 11.0% 11.0% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 7.0% 9.5% 9.3% 9.0% 9.0% 7.0% 4.1% 5.5% 7.9% 5.0% 6.4% 8.5% 5.6% 7.1% 9.1% 6.2% 7.7% 9.2% 6.3% 7.8% 3.7% 3.0% 3.3% 4.5% 3.2% 4.0% 5.0% 3.2% 4.0% 6.5% 3.5% 5.0% 7.5% 4.0% 6.0% 7.5% 4.0% 6.0% 7.5% 4.0% 6.0% 6.1% 3.6% 4.8% 7.8% 4.1% 5.7% 8.2% 4.8% 6.3% 8.7% 5.0% 6.7% 8.6% 4.8% 6.4% 8.5% 4.9% 6.1% 9.1% 4.9% 7.4% 5.0% 3.5% 4.5% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.5% 7.0% 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% 5.5% 7.0% 9.0% 5.5% 7.0% 9.0% 5.5% 7.0% 7.0% 3.0% 5.0% 8.5% 2.5% 5.5% 9.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.5% 3.5% 6.5% 9.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 3.0% 6.0% 7.0% 4.1% 4.5% 8.0% 3.5% 5.5% 8.5% 3.5% 5.5% 9.0% 4.0% 5.5% 9.0% 4.0% 5.5% 10.0% 10.0% 4.0% 4.0% 5.5% 5.5% 6.5% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 3.3% 6.0% 8.0% 3.3% 6.3% 8.5% 3.3% 6.5% 9.0% 3.3% 6.0% 10.0% 11.0% 3.3% 3.3% 6.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 2.7% 3.0% 3.4% 4.2% 5.0% 6.0% are in nominal rates. 10.1% 10.1% 5.4% 5.4% 7.8% 7.8% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 3.8% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 7.0% 7.0% 8.0% 8.0% 18 Phoenix CPI Growth Rate 2011 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 3.0% Lower 10% 0.0% Median 0.5% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 0.3% Lower 10% -0.5% Median 0.0% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 1.5% Lower 10% 0.0% Median 1.0% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 1.0% Lower 10% 0.0% Median 0.5% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 2.0% Lower 10% 0.5% Median 1.0% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 2.4% Lower 10% 0.0% Median 1.4% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 5.0% Lower 10% 0.0% Median 3.6% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 2.7% Lower 10% 0.6% Median 1.6% Panelist 9 Upper 10% 2.0% Lower 10% 0.1% Median 1.0% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 2.1% Lower 10% -0.5% Median 0.9% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 1.0% Lower 10% -1.0% Median 0.0% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 2.5% Lower 10% 0.5% Median 1.5% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 2.5% Lower 10% 0.7% Median 1.5% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 0.9% Lower 10% -0.6% Median 0.1% Panelist 15 Upper 10% 2.5% Lower 10% 0.5% Median 1.5% All data in the above table October 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 3.0% 0.0% 0.5% 4.0% 0.5% 2.0% 6.0% 1.0% 4.0% 7.0% 1.0% 4.5% 5.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% 0.0% 4.0% 6.0% 0.0% 4.0% 2.9% 1.4% 2.1% 3.4% 1.7% 2.4% 3.1% 1.6% 2.2% 3.1% 1.6% 2.2% 3.1% 1.6% 2.2% 3.1% 1.5% 2.2% 3.1% 1.5% 2.2% 2.0% 0.5% 1.3% 3.0% 1.0% 1.5% 3.5% 1.3% 1.8% 4.0% 1.5% 2.0% 4.0% 1.5% 2.0% 4.0% 1.5% 2.0% 4.0% 1.5% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 1.2% 1.6% 0.6% 1.3% 1.6% 0.6% 1.4% 1.7% 0.7% 1.5% 3.0% 0.5% 2.0% 3.0% 0.5% 2.0% 2.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.7% 1.2% 1.7% 3.0% 1.5% 2.0% 3.0% 1.5% 2.0% 3.0% 1.5% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.5% 0.4% 1.8% 3.0% 0.9% 2.2% 3.2% 1.2% 2.6% 3.0% 1.0% 2.4% 2.9% 0.5% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% -1.0% 3.7% 7.0% 1.0% 3.9% 7.0% 2.0% 4.1% 7.0% 2.0% 4.5% 7.0% 2.0% 4.5% 7.0% 2.0% 4.5% 7.0% 2.0% 4.5% 2.8% 0.6% 1.8% 3.0% 0.8% 2.0% 3.2% 0.8% 2.2% 3.2% 1.0% 2.2% 3.0% 1.0% 2.2% 3.5% 0.5% 2.0% 3.5% 0.5% 2.0% 2.5% 0.5% 1.2% 3.0% 0.7% 1.5% 3.5% 0.8% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.5% 4.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.8% -0.2% 1.6% 3.1% 0.4% 1.8% 3.5% 0.9% 2.0% 3.7% 0.8% 2.2% 3.9% 1.0% 2.5% 3.9% 0.8% 2.8% 3.6% 0.8% 2.6% 1.7% 0.0% 1.0% 2.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.8% 1.0% 2.0% 2.8% 1.0% 2.0% 2.9% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 4.5% 1.5% 3.0% 4.5% 1.5% 3.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.5% 3.9% 0.9% 2.4% 3.7% 0.7% 2.2% 2.7% 0.7% 1.5% 2.8% 0.8% 2.0% 2.8% 0.8% 2.0% 2.8% 0.8% 2.5% 2.9% 0.9% 2.5% 3.1% 0.0% 1.5% 3.3% 0.2% 1.5% 1.5% -0.3% 0.8% 2.3% 0.0% 1.1% 2.9% 0.3% 1.5% 3.0% 0.5% 1.8% 3.1% 0.8% 2.0% 3.9% 0.1% 1.6% 7.0% -0.5% 1.8% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 3.6% 3.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 2.0% are in percentage growth rates. 2.5% 0.5% 1.8% 2.5% 0.2% 1.5% 19 U. S. Housing Start Growth Rate 2011 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 0.0% Lower 10% -15.0% Median -5.0% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 10.0% Lower 10% -5.0% Median 5.0% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 5.0% Lower 10% -10.0% Median 0.0% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 5.0% Lower 10% -5.0% Median 0.0% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 60.0% Lower 10% 20.0% Median 40.0% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 40.0% Lower 10% 10.0% Median 20.0% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 7.0% Lower 10% -15.0% Median -4.0% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 60.0% Lower 10% 20.0% Median 40.0% Panelist 9 Upper 10% 2.0% Lower 10% -5.0% Median 0.0% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 22.2% Lower 10% -1.0% Median 10.8% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 10.0% Lower 10% 0.0% Median 5.0% Panelist 12 25.0% Upper 10% Lower 10% 20.0% Median 22.5% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 50.0% Lower 10% -10.0% Median 20.0% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 18.0% Lower 10% 5.0% Median 8.0% Panelist 15 Upper 10% 30.0% Lower 10% -10.0% Median 15.0% All data in the above table October 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 0.0% -10.0% -2.5% 2.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% -2.5% 2.5% 10.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 0.0% 5.0% 5.0% -2.5% 2.5% 5.0% -2.5% 2.5% 10.0% -5.0% 5.0% 10.0% -5.0% 5.0% 5.0% -5.0% 2.0% 5.0% -5.0% 2.0% 5.0% -5.0% 2.0% 5.0% -5.0% 2.0% 5.0% -5.0% 2.0% 10.0% 0.0% 5.0% 12.0% 5.0% 10.0% 18.0% 5.0% 15.0% 25.0% 10.0% 20.0% 12.0% 7.0% 10.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 8.0% 0.0% 2.0% 9.0% 2.0% 4.0% 9.0% 3.0% 6.0% 10.0% 5.0% 8.0% 10.0% 5.0% 8.0% 6.0% 1.0% 3.0% 6.0% 1.0% 3.0% 60.0% 20.0% 40.0% 30.0% 10.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% -5.0% -10.0% -10.0% -10.0% -10.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70.0% 20.0% 50.0% 30.0% 10.0% 20.0% 20.0% 14.0% 12.0% 20.0% 20.0% -8.0% -10.0% -10.0% -20.0% -20.0% 4.0% 4.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 15.0% 20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 5.0% 15.0% 16.0% 0.0% 6.0% 10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 10.0% -5.0% 1.0% 10.0% -5.0% 2.0% 10.0% -5.0% 2.0% 50.0% 10.0% 30.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 15.0% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% -10.0% -15.0% -15.0% -20.0% -20.0% 12.0% 5.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% -3.0% 0.0% 7.0% -3.0% 1.0% 8.0% -2.0% 3.0% 10.0% -2.0% 4.0% 8.0% -5.0% 2.0% 7.0% -5.0% 2.0% 7.0% -5.0% 2.0% 28.0% 8.7% 16.7% 32.5% 6.4% 15.0% 15.7% 5.8% 8.5% 12.1% 2.2% 5.0% 15.3% 1.4% 4.7% 12.2% 1.0% 4.0% 8.8% 0.2% 1.2% 15.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 7.0% 10.0% 7.0% 5.0% 5.0% 7.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 3.0% 5.0% 40.0% 10.0% 25.0% 30.0% 20.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 15.0% 0.0% -10.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -15.0% 15.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% -0.5% 0.0% 40.0% 30.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% -10.0% -5.0% -10.0% -12.0% -15.0% -20.0% -20.0% 25.0% 15.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 25.0% 6.0% 12.0% 20.0% 3.0% 7.0% 15.0% 18.0% 19.0% 20.0% 25.0% -2.0% -12.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.5% 1.0% 1.0% 40.0% 25.0% 15.0% 10.0% 0.0% 3.2% 1.0% -2.0% 15.0% 12.0% 5.0% 3.0% are in percentage growth rates. 10.0% 6.0% 5.0% -5.0% -10.0% -12.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 20 Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic Growth Rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Lower 10% -2.0% -2.0% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% Median -0.5% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.5% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% Lower 10% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Median 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 2.0% 2.5% 3.5% 5.0% 5.0% Lower 10% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% Median 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 1.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.8% 4.0% Lower 10% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% Median 0.0% 0.8% 1.2% 2.0% 2.3% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 2.5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 3.5% Lower 10% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Median 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 2.7% 3.0% 3.3% 3.5% 3.4% Lower 10% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% Median 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% 2.2% 2.0% Panelist 7 Upper 10% N/A Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% 2.6% 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% Lower 10% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 1.0% 0.8% Median 1.8% 2.0% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% Panelist 9 Upper 10% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Lower 10% -1.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% Median -1.0% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 3.3% 3.6% Lower 10% -4.4% -3.0% -1.4% 0.4% 0.8% Median -1.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 1.5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 3.5% Lower 10% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% Median 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 5.0% 6.0% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% Lower 10% -5.0% -4.0% -4.5% -4.5% -4.5% Median 0.0% 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Lower 10% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% Median 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 4.0% 6.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% Lower 10% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -3.0% -3.0% Median 0.0% 1.5% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% Panelist 15 Upper 10% 4.0% 4.0% 4.5% 4.0% 4.0% Lower 10% 0.5% 0.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% Median 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. N/A means not available October 2010 2016 2021 2026 5.0% 0.0% 2.5% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.5% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.5% 4.0% 2.0% 2.5% 4.0% 2.0% 2.5% 4.5% 1.5% 2.7% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.5% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 0.0% 2.5% 3.4% 0.4% 2.0% 5.0% -1.0% 2.0% 5.0% -1.0% 2.0% 3.6% 0.8% 2.4% 5.0% -1.0% 2.0% 5.0% -1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.5% 3.0% -2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.5% 1.0% 2.4% 5.1% 1.1% 2.6% 4.9% 1.1% 2.7% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 8.0% -4.0% 2.0% 8.0% -4.0% 2.0% 8.0% -4.0% 2.0% 5.0% -0.5% 1.5% 5.0% -0.5% 1.5% 5.0% -0.5% 1.5% 6.8% -4.0% 2.4% 7.0% -7.0% 2.0% 10.0% -8.0% 1.8% 4.0% 0.8% 2.5% 4.5% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.5% 21 Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 0.0% -3.0% -1.5% 0.0% -2.5% -1.0% 0.0% -2.0% -0.5% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.5% 0.5% 1.5% 5.0% 1.0% 2.5% 5.0% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.5% 1.0% 3.0% 4.5% 1.0% 3.0% 4.5% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% -2.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.5% 4.0% 1.0% 2.5% 4.5% 1.5% 3.0% 6.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 2.5% 3.5% 4.0% 2.5% 3.0% 4.0% 2.5% 3.0% 0.8% -2.0% -1.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.8% 1.2% 1.8% 4.2% 1.8% 2.4% 4.6% 2.2% 2.8% 4.5% 2.8% 3.4% 4.5% 0.5% 2.5% 4.5% 0.5% 2.5% 1.0% -1.5% -0.5% 3.5% 0.0% 2.5% 5.5% 2.5% 4.0% 5.5% 2.5% 4.0% 4.5% 2.0% 3.0% 4.5% 2.0% 3.0% 4.5% -2.0% 2.5% 4.5% -2.0% 2.5% 0.8% -2.0% -0.8% 3.5% 0.9% 2.2% 5.5% 2.7% 3.9% 6.0% 2.9% 4.1% 5.0% 2.2% 3.3% 4.0% 1.6% 2.8% 7.0% -2.0% 2.2% 7.0% -2.0% 2.0% 2.3% -1.7% -0.2% 2.5% 0.0% 1.7% 2.5% -0.3% 2.3% 3.0% 0.6% 2.6% 3.5% 0.9% 2.9% 3.5% 1.2% 3.2% 4.0% 1.5% 3.5% 4.0% 1.9% 3.9% 1.0% -1.2% 0.4% 3.0% 0.6% 1.8% 4.2% 1.6% 2.8% 5.0% 1.9% 3.3% 5.4% 1.9% 4.0% 4.7% 1.6% 3.3% 5.2% 1.1% 2.6% 5.2% 1.1% 2.4% 0.0% -4.0% -2.0% 1.0% -2.0% -1.0% 2.0% -1.5% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.5% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 1.5% 4.0% 4.0% 0.5% 2.0% 4.0% 0.5% 2.0% 0.0% -3.7% -1.2% 2.4% -0.6% 1.4% 4.3% 2.5% 3.3% 5.7% 2.7% 3.7% 7.4% 1.6% 5.0% 7.5% 1.7% 5.2% 7.2% 1.4% 4.8% 6.9% 1.8% 4.7% 2.5% 1.0% 2.0% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 5.0% 2.5% 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.5% 5.0% 2.5% 3.0% 4.0% 1.5% 2.5% 4.0% 1.5% 2.5% 4.5% -1.5% 1.5% 6.5% 0.5% 3.5% 6.5% -0.5% 3.0% 6.0% -1.0% 2.5% 6.0% -1.0% 2.5% 5.8% -1.2% 2.3% 6.2% -1.8% 2.2% 6.2% -1.8% 2.2% 3.0% -2.0% 0.0% 3.5% -1.5% 2.5% 4.0% -0.5% 3.0% 4.0% -0.5% 3.0% 4.0% -0.5% 3.0% 4.0% -0.5% 3.0% 4.0% -0.5% 3.0% 4.0% -0.5% 3.0% 5.4% 1.5% 2.9% 5.6% 1.9% 3.0% 5.9% 1.8% 3.0% 6.6% -1.4% 2.7% 6.8% -1.9% 2.7% 5.0% 6.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.8% 2.2% growth rates. 6.0% 1.5% 3.0% 5.0% 1.2% 2.5% 4.0% 1.0% 2.3% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 0.9% 3.2% 5.0% Lower 10% -1.6% 0.2% 1.0% Median 0.2% 1.6% 2.5% Panelist 15 Upper 10% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% Lower 10% -2.5% -1.0% 0.0% Median -1.0% 1.0% 1.5% All data in the above table are in percentage October 2010 22 HISTORICAL DATA GROWTH IN REAL INCOME PER CAPITA Using Phoenix CPI to Measure Inflation (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 3.0% 1.5% -7.7% -4.1% 2.6% 2.6% 1.4% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -1.8% -0.5% -0.7% 1.6% 4.2% 2.0% 3.0% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 -0.8% -2.3% -0.6% -0.7% 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 2.1% 1.7% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2.4% 2010* -2.0% 2.1% 2011 -0.1% 2012 -0.1% 2013 1.8% 2014 3.3% 2015 3.8% 2016 1.8% 2017 -2.5% 2018 -3.4% 2019 *Estimate HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 6.0% Percent Change 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 -10.0% Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2010 Historical Std. Min. Max. Mean Dev. -3.4% 3.8% -0.4% 3.1% -3.4% 3.8% 0.5% 2.5% -7.7% 4.2% 0.5% 2.4% 80% Range Lower Upper -3.0% 3.0% -2.6% 3.3% -2.4% 3.0% 23 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 6.4% 5.2% 3.0% 2.1% 3.9% 4.4% 4.9% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 4.4% 3.0% 2.9% 3.2% 4.4% 5.3% 4.2% 4.5% 2.9% 2.6% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1.4% 3.1% 3.4% 3.8% 4.9% 5.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 3.1% 3.3% 3.0% 2.7% 3.2% 4.0% 3.6% 2.6% 2.3% 1.7% 2010* 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1.5% FY 2009 and prior from U. S. Census Bureau. * FY 2010 to 2011 based on Phoenix Blue Chip estimate, 1st Quarter 2010 while FY 2012-2014 based on staff forecast. FY 2015-2026 based on AZ Dept of Commerce Population Projections 2006-2055 growth rates dated March 31, 2006. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 0.07 6.0% Percent Change Percent Change 0.06 5.0% 0.05 4.0% 0.04 3.0% 0.03 2.0% 0.02 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 FiscalYear Year Fiscal 1996 1995 1994 1993 1991 1992 1989 1990 1987 1988 1985 1986 1983 1984 1981 1982 1979 1980 1977 1978 1975 1976 0.0% 0 1973 1974 1.0% 0.01 HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2010 Historical Min. Max. 1.5% 3.6% 1.5% 4.0% 1.4% 6.4% Mean 2.3% 2.8% 3.5% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 0.8% 1.6% 3.2% 0.8% 1.7% 3.6% 1.1% 2.2% 4.9% 24 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY GROWTH IN CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 16.1% 0.2% -16.4% -12.4% 13.7% 34.0% 29.7% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 5.5% -4.9% -4.5% 6.1% 22.3% 20.0% 8.8% -4.0% -7.3% -7.0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 -7.1% -5.6% -1.4% 7.0% 14.5% 15.4% 9.6% 6.0% 8.1% 9.3% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 5.8% 5.5% 2.9% 1.4% 6.8% 12.3% 11.8% 1.8% -9.5% -22.4% 2010* 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -21.2% FY 2008 and prior from BEA. * FY 2009 to 2011 based on Phoenix Blue Chip Forecast, 1st Quarter 2010 . FY 2012 based on ADOT estimates. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Percent PercentChange Change 40.0% 0.4 30.0% 0.3 20.0% 0.2 10.0% 0.1 0.0% 0 -10.0% -0.1 -20.0% 2010 2009 2007 2008 2005 2006 2003 2004 2001 2002 1999 2000 1997 1998 1995 1996 1993 1994 1991 1992 1989 1990 1987 1988 1985 1986 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 -0.2 -30.0% Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2010 Historical Min. Max. Mean -22.4% 11.8% -7.9% -22.4% 12.3% -1.1% -22.4% 34.0% 4.0% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 14.8% -21.9% 7.8% 12.5% -21.4% 11.8% 12.6% -10.4% 17.2% 25 HISTORICAL DATA PRIME INTEREST RATE HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 7.9% 6.8% 5.5% 6.6% 9.4% 9.3% 7.4% 6.8% 7.9% 10.9% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 14.0% 17.1% 16.9% 12.8% 11.4% 11.0% 9.1% 8.3% 8.8% 10.1% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 10.4% 9.2% 7.4% 6.1% 6.6% 8.0% 8.5% 8.3% 8.4% 8.2% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 8.6% 8.1% 5.8% 4.4% 4.2% 5.3% 7.1% 8.0% 6.6% 4.2% 2010* 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 3.3% FY 2009 and prior from Federal Reserve. FY 2010 and after based on Global Insight, 1st Quarter 2010, Trend Forecast. * Estimate 2009 2010 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 1974 1973 1972 1971 1970 1969 18.0% 18.0% 16.0% 16.0% 14.0% 14.0% 12.0% 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1968 1967 Percent PercentChange Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Year Fiscal Fiscal Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2010 Historical Min. Max. 3.3% 8.0% 3.3% 8.1% 3.3% 17.1% Mean 5.8% 5.7% 8.2% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 2.0% 3.6% 7.6% 1.7% 4.1% 8.0% 2.9% 5.2% 11.2% 26 HISTORICAL DATA PHOENIX CPI GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 5.6% 7.6% 15.3% 12.2% 6.5% 8.9% 12.4% 14.9% 12.5% 7.7% 3.4% 3.7% 5.4% 3.1% 2.7% 4.1% 4.5% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 5.2% 4.1% 2.7% 3.4% 3.7% 4.2% 5.1% 4.8% 4.0% 3.6% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 3.2% 2.4% 1.5% 1.6% 2.0% 2.4% 3.0% 3.2% 3.4% 1.0% 2010* 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0.2% * Estimate 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1974 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2010 Historical Min. Max. 0.2% 3.4% 0.2% 3.4% 0.2% 15.3% Mean 2.1% 2.1% 5.1% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 1.5% 0.5% 3.3% 1.0% 0.9% 3.2% 3.8% 1.9% 12.3% 27 HISTORICAL DATA US HOUSING START GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1.1% 1.6% -3.4% -9.3% -7.9% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 -10.3% -14.1% 0.3% 12.4% 10.3% 2.4% 0.7% 4.2% 4.7% 5.4% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -1.5% -1.2% 4.3% 7.4% 7.1% 5.8% -3.8% -18.4% -28.4% -35.4% 2010* 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -10.4% FY 2009 and prior from U.S. Bureau of Census. * FY 2010 estimate and after based on Global Insight, 1st Quarter 2010, Trend Forecast. 2009 2010 2004 1998 2005 2006 2000 2007 2008 2002 2003 1996 2004 1990 1999 2000 1992 2001 2002 1994 1997 1988 1998 1991 1980 1992 1982 1993 1994 1984 1995 1996 1986 1988 1976 1989 1978 1990 20.0% 0.18 0.2 0.16 10.0% 0.1 0.14 0.0% 0.12 0 0.1 -10.0% -0.1 0.08 -20.0% 0.06 -0.2 0.04 -30.0% -0.3 0.02 -40.0% -0.40 1985 1986 1974 1987 Percent PercentChange Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Fiscal Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2010 Historical Min. Max. Mean -35.4% -3.8% -19.3% -35.4% 7.4% -7.3% -35.4% 12.4% -2.9% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 12.8% -32.6% -6.5% 15.4% -29.1% 7.1% 11.4% -16.3% 7.2% 28 HISTORICAL DATA SKY HARBOR PASSENGER TRAFFIC GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 3.6% 8.4% 12.2% 8.4% 2.4% 5.7% 12.2% 16.1% 18.7% 5.0% -2.8% 6.8% 13.9% 20.6% 24.8% 19.6% 14.8% 10.9% 8.1% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 6.4% 3.4% 0.9% 3.3% 7.7% 8.6% 8.9% 4.8% 2.2% 4.6% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 6.5% 2.7% -0.7% 2.8% 5.4% 4.9% 2.4% 1.2% -1.4% -5.0% 2010* 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -1.9% * Historical data FY 2009 and prior obtained from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport and Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport. FY 2010 and after ADOT staff estimates. 2009 2004 2010 2002 2007 2008 1992 1993 1990 1994 1995 1992 1996 1997 1994 1998 1999 2000 1996 2001 2002 1998 2003 2004 2000 2005 2006 1990 1988 1991 1986 1988 1989 1981 1980 1980 1983 1982 1982 1984 1985 1984 1986 1987 1979 1978 0.18 0.3 30.0% 0.16 0.25 25.0% 0.14 0.2 20.0% 0.12 0.15 15.0% 0.1 0.1 10.0% 0.08 0.05 5.0% 0.06 0 0.0% 0.04 -0.05 -5.0% 0.02 -0.1 -10.0% 0 1973 1972 1974 1975 1974 1977 1976 1976 Percent PercentChange Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Year Fiscal Fiscal Year Year Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2010 Historical Min. Max. Mean -5.0% 2.4% -0.9% -5.0% 5.4% 1.0% -5.0% 24.8% 6.9% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 2.9% -3.8% 1.9% 3.3% -2.2% 5.0% 6.7% -0.8% 16.4% 29 HISTORICAL DATA - MARICOPA COUNTY TOTAL NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 7.8% 5.9% 8.5% 11.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.5% 6.9% 11.1% 11.8% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 6.9% 3.4% 1.5% 2.9% 8.6% 10.2% 6.9% 4.1% 4.7% 4.1% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 3.0% 5.8% 6.9% 7.2% 6.3% 5.4% 5.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 4.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.7% 2.7% 5.1% 5.8% 3.5% -0.5% -5.2% 2010* 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -5.2% FY 2009 and prior from Bureau of Labor Statistics. FY 2010- 11 ADOC estimates. 18.0% 13.0% 16.0% 8.0% 14.0% 2004 2010 2006 2002 2008 2004 2000 1998 1996 2000 1998 2002 1992 1992 1994 1994 1996 1986 1988 1988 1990 1990 1986 1984 1980 1984 1982 1978 1982 1972 1978 1974 1980 1976 1966 1974 1968 1976 1970 12.0% 3.0% 10.0% 8.0% -2.0% 6.0% 4.0% -7.0% 2.0% -12.0% 0.0% 1964 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Fiscal Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period October 2010 Historical Min. Max. -5.2% 5.8% -5.2% 5.8% -5.2% 11.8% Mean -0.3% 1.0% 4.7% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 5.0% -5.2% 4.8% 3.8% -5.2% 5.2% 3.7% 0.5% 8.6% 30