Arizona Department of Transportation MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX Forecasting Process & Results FY 2010-2026 Financial Management Services September 2009 MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES Introduction In 1985, the voters of Maricopa County approved Proposition 300 to establish a onehalf cent transportation excise (sales) tax for construction of a regional freeway system within the county. The half cent sales tax was approved for a period of 20 years and ended on December 31, 2005. On November 2, 2004, Maricopa County’s voters approved Proposition 400 which extended the one-half cent sales tax for another 20 years through December 31, 2025. The sales tax extension will be used for construction of new freeways, widening of existing freeways and highways, improvements to the arterial street system, regional bus service and other special transportation services, and high capacity transit services such as light rail, bus rapid transit and express buses. This document contains the official forecast of expected values for the Maricopa County Transportation Excise Tax for the period FY 2009-2026 developed by the Arizona Department of Transportation in cooperation with the Maricopa Association of Governments, Valley Metro and Valley Metro Rail. Background Since 1986, the Arizona Department of Transportation (the Department) has used a comprehensive regression-based econometric model to estimate Transportation Excise Tax revenues for Maricopa County. These revenues, which flow into the Regional Area Road Fund (RARF), are the major funding source for the Maricopa County Freeway Program. The revenue forecast is highly dependent on estimates of independent variables. In order to deal with the variability between estimated and actual values, the Department introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies on probability analysis and the independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. The process results in a series of forecasts, with specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate. Enhanced forecasting accuracy was achieved in July 1996, when Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB) working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State University, incorporated economic data and independent variables which were not included in the 1986 model. September 2009 1 In September 2005, the Department had HDR Decision Economics re-examine the structure of the RARF modal and re-evaluate the set of explanatory variables used in the production of the RARF revenue forecasts. Three new variables (U. S. Housing Starts, Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic and Maricopa County Total NonFarm Employment Growth) were added to the existing list of variables used in the RARF regression equations. The independent variables contained in the updated model are: • • • • • • • • Maricopa County real income growth per capita Maricopa County population growth Maricopa County construction employment growth U. S. housing start growth Sky Harbor passenger traffic growth Maricopa County total non-farm employment growth Phoenix Consumer Price Index (CPI) Prime interest rate. Risk Analysis Panel The Risk Analysis Process (RAP) relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economists to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In August 2009, an expert panel of fifteen economists representing public, private, and academic sectors provided their individual estimates of the model’s independent variables and comments on the future economic outlook. Model Results The September 2009 RARF model produced a mean forecast of $11,055.0 million with an average compound growth rate (CGR) of 7.8 percent for the period FY 2010-2026. The Official Forecast for FY 2010-2026 totals $9,861.9 million with an average compound growth rate of 7.2 percent. The forecast is $2,255.3 million lower than last year’s forecast due to the lower revenue base of $328.2 million in FY 2009 and the higher confidence levels used in FY 2011-2014 to account for the continued economic uncertainty in Maricopa County. However, the model forecasts higher growth rates in FY 2014-2015 as the economy recovers from the housing and financial uncertainty. For the remaining years, FY 2016-2026, the estimated revenue growth is expected to return to normal growth patterns. The Official Forecast incorporates the 60 percent confidence interval for FY 20112013, 55 percent confidence interval in FY 2014 and the remaining years with 50 percent confidence interval. The forecast for FY 2010 was developed by ADOT staff after considering the historical growth rates, legislative changes and current economic environment. The result of the forecast model is based on the expert panel inputs and econometric modeling using time series techniques, historical and projected growth rates. September 2009 2 Official Forecast Results (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026/1 Total Average CGR Mean Forecast $327.2 357.6 407.2 460.7 508.0 547.9 584.6 621.0 659.4 700.7 744.9 792.5 843.1 897.0 955.0 1,016.7 631.5 $11,055.0 7.8% Official Forecast $315.3 321.9 347.0 379.1 435.0 492.2 524.1 557.3 594.8 633.1 671.1 711.2 759.4 803.6 851.9 905.0 559.9 $9,861.9 7.2% Confidence Level N/A 60% 60% 60% 55% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Note: Amount in current dollars Totals may not add due to individual rounding /1. Relects the end of the one-half cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025 September 2009 3 The table below provides the September 2008 and September 2009 Official Forecasts comparison. FY 2010 Comparative Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026/1 Sept. 08 Official Forecast $396.8 431.5 467.9 505.3 544.9 585.6 626.8 670.6 715.0 759.4 809.9 862.1 918.1 978.8 1,043.7 1,112.2 688.6 Sept. 09 Official Forecast $315.3 321.9 347.0 379.1 435.0 492.2 524.1 557.3 594.8 633.1 671.1 711.2 759.4 803.6 851.9 905.0 559.9 Total Average CGR $12,117.2 7.1% $9,861.9 7.2% Difference ($81.5) (109.6) (120.9) (126.2) (109.9) (93.4) (102.7) (113.3) (120.2) (126.3) (138.8) (150.9) (158.7) (175.2) (191.8) (207.2) (128.7) ($2,255.3) Note: Amount in current dollars. Totals may not add due to individual rounding. /1 Reflects the end of the one-half cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025 September 2009 4 Summary The Official Forecast for FY 2010-2026 totals $9,861.9 million, a decrease of $2,255.3 million from the September 2008 Official Forecast. The Risk Analysis Process panel members forecasted lower growth rates for population, construction employment, non-farm employment and Phoenix CPI for FY 2010-2014 but expect a rebound in FY 2015-2026. The panel also believes the growth rates for real income, Sky Harbor Traffic and prime interest rate for FY 2010-2026 period will be lower than last year. However, compared to last year, they believe the U.S. Housing growth rates will be higher for FY 2010-2026 due mainly to a lower base in FY 2009. Supplementary Information The remainder of this report presents supplementary information on the RAP model, the values of the independent variables forecast by the expert panel, and detailed results of the Risk Analysis Process. September 2009 5 RARF Official Revenue Forecast With Category Detail by Fiscal Year (Current Dollars in Millions) Retail Rental Contracting Utilities Restaurant/ Real Bar Property $40.8 $28.5 $30.2 $36.5 Rental Personal Property $13.0 Other Total $16.4 $315.3 Fiscal Year 2010 $149.9 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 156.2 170.0 188.0 221.7 255.8 271.8 287.1 306.2 324.9 40.0 46.3 53.4 61.8 69.1 74.9 82.9 90.0 97.9 28.1 28.8 29.8 31.6 33.6 34.9 36.2 37.6 39.1 30.8 32.2 34.1 37.7 41.8 44.6 47.3 50.3 53.8 37.6 39.5 42.1 47.0 52.7 56.5 60.4 64.8 68.9 13.4 13.9 14.7 15.9 17.3 18.5 19.6 20.7 21.9 15.8 16.3 17.0 19.3 21.9 22.9 23.8 25.2 26.6 321.9 347.0 379.1 435.0 492.2 524.1 557.3 594.8 633.1 Total: 10-19 $2,331.6 $657.1 $328.2 $402.8 $506.0 $168.9 $205.2 $4,599.8 Note: Totals may not add due to individual rounding. September 2009 6 September 2009 RARF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year Mean 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2010 $327.2 $392.6 $365.1 $347.6 $334.5 $323.1 2011 357.6 486.3 424.8 390.8 366.3 343.7 2012 407.2 603.8 503.7 449.7 411.6 379.0 2013 460.7 716.3 584.6 512.1 460.8 418.9 2014 508.0 804.5 653.7 564.9 504.9 457.8 2015 547.9 882.8 713.1 615.1 545.7 492.2 2016 584.6 943.7 763.1 656.8 584.2 524.1 2017 621.0 1,004.0 812.6 696.0 619.2 557.3 2018 659.4 1,059.8 859.9 740.0 659.0 594.8 2019 700.7 1,117.9 920.2 788.0 700.2 633.1 2020 744.9 1,194.7 977.4 836.9 746.0 671.1 2021 792.5 1,270.1 1,039.4 889.3 793.2 711.2 2022 843.1 1,370.3 1,105.0 951.0 845.3 759.4 2023 897.0 1,467.3 1,173.3 1,012.3 897.3 803.6 2024 955.0 1,560.6 1,256.7 1,076.0 952.1 851.9 2025 1,016.7 1,669.2 1,338.6 1,141.6 1,020.0 905.0 2026/1 1,082.5 1,767.5 1,421.2 1,220.7 1,084.2 959.8 /1 Totals reflect the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026, but the transportation excise tax expires December 31, 2025. 60% 70% 80% 90% $311.0 321.9 347.0 379.1 412.2 441.9 469.4 502.5 532.8 564.5 599.6 637.9 674.5 715.6 763.0 810.1 860.6 $298.4 298.4 315.3 339.1 364.9 391.7 417.4 445.3 472.6 501.5 534.4 568.5 601.1 637.9 676.6 718.4 758.8 $285.7 276.6 285.1 303.7 323.0 343.6 365.6 389.8 412.7 435.6 464.0 493.0 524.4 557.2 590.0 626.2 663.5 $268.3 246.7 245.8 253.8 266.9 284.9 305.0 324.9 345.6 366.2 387.3 410.5 434.6 461.7 490.8 521.0 550.3 7 RARF Official Revenue Forecast Revenue Distribution (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 /2 TOTALS Regional Area Road Fund (RARF) /1 Freeways Arterial Streets (56.2%) (10.5 %) $177.2 $33.1 180.9 33.8 195.0 36.4 213.1 39.8 244.5 45.7 276.6 51.7 294.5 55.0 313.2 58.5 334.3 62.5 355.8 66.5 377.2 70.5 399.7 74.7 426.8 79.7 451.6 84.4 478.8 89.4 508.6 95.0 314.7 58.8 $5,542.4 $1,035.5 Public Transportation Fund (33.3%) $105.0 107.2 115.6 126.2 144.9 163.9 174.5 185.6 198.1 210.8 223.5 236.8 252.9 267.6 283.7 301.4 186.4 $3,284.0 Total $315.3 321.9 347.0 379.1 435.0 492.2 524.1 557.3 594.8 633.1 671.1 711.2 759.4 803.6 851.9 905.0 559.9 $9,861.9 Note: 1/ The Regional Public Transportation Authority received a portion of the excise tax funds for transit cost which is adjusted annually by the GDP price deflator. Beginning July 1, 2005, this transfer from RARF is divided equally between MAG and the Public Transportation Fund for planning and administering the regional transportation plan. 2/ Reflects the end of the one-half cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025. Totals may not add due to rounding. Distribution Per Laws 2004, Chapter 2 (HB 2456), the sales tax extension will be distributed as follows: 1. 56.2 percent to the Regional Area Road (RARF) fund for freeways and other routes in the state highway systems, including capital expense and maintenance. 2. 10.5 percent to the RARF fund for major arterial streets and intersection improvements, including capital expense and implementation studies. 3. 33.3 percent to the Public Transportation Fund for: (a). Capital costs, maintenance and operation of public transportation classifications. (b). Capital costs and utility relocations costs associated with a light rail public transit system. September 2009 8 Official Forecast Results (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 /1 Total Mean Forecast $327.2 357.6 407.2 460.7 508.0 547.9 584.6 621.0 659.4 700.7 744.9 792.5 843.1 897.0 955.0 1,016.7 631.5 $11,055.0 Official Forecast $315.3 321.9 347.0 379.1 435.0 492.2 524.1 557.3 594.8 633.1 671.1 711.2 759.4 803.6 851.9 905.0 559.9 $9,861.9 80% Conf. Interval $285.7 276.6 285.1 303.7 323.0 343.6 365.6 389.8 412.7 435.6 464.0 493.0 524.4 557.2 590.0 626.2 387.0 $7,063.4 20% Conf. Interval $365.1 424.8 503.7 584.6 653.7 713.1 763.1 812.6 859.9 920.2 977.4 1,039.4 1,105.0 1,173.3 1,256.7 1,338.6 829.1 $14,320.1 Note: 1/ FY 2026 totals are adjusted to reflect the transportation excise tax extension expiration on December 31, 2025. Totals may not add due to individual rounding. $1,600 Millions of Current Dollars $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 2010 2012 2014 2016 2020 2018 2022 2024 2026 Fiscal Year Mean Fcst September 2009 Official Fcst 80% Conf. Interval 20% Conf. Interval 9 Maricopa County Real Income 4.0% 3.0% Growth Rate 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2024 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Maricopa County Population 4.0% Growth Rate 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Fiscal Year Median September 2009 Lower 10% Upper 10% 10 Maricopa County Construction Employment 20.0% 15.0% Growth Rate 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Prime Interest Rate 14.0% 12.0% Rate 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2010 2012 2014 2016 Median September 2009 2018 2020 Fiscal Year Lower 10% 2022 2024 2026 Upper 10% 11 Phoenix CPI 6.0% 5.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% U.S. Housing Start 40.0% 30.0% Growth Rate 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% 2010 2012 2014 2016 Median September 2009 2018 Fiscal Year Lower 10% 2020 2022 2024 2026 Upper 10% 12 Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% Growth Rate 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment 8.0% G ro w t h R a t e 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Fiscal Year M edian September 2009 Lower 10% Upper 10% 13 Mean Panelist Data Values FY 2010 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2011 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2012 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2013 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2014 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2016 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2021 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2026 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Real Income Growth /1 Population Growth /1 Const. Employment Growth /1 Prime U. S. Interest Phoenix Housing Start Rate CPI Growth Growth Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic Growth Total Non-Farm Employment Growth /1 0.36% -2.63% -1.40% 1.82% -0.10% 0.91% 0.50% -12.09% -5.96% 5.18% 2.18% 3.40% 1.64% -0.69% 0.45% 5.96% -8.87% -1.77% 1.29% -8.22% -4.17% 0.47% -4.29% -2.14% 0.66% -2.36% -0.83% 2.56% 0.60% 1.64% 6.41% -7.15% 0.57% 6.04% 2.56% 4.04% 2.95% 0.39% 1.64% 32.05% 8.47% 22.81% 5.54% -3.51% 1.18% 3.23% -1.94% 1.05% 1.61% -1.13% 0.48% 3.04% 1.20% 2.22% 12.16% -1.73% 6.12% 7.41% 3.32% 5.20% 4.08% 1.14% 2.34% 32.49% 9.87% 22.36% 6.05% -2.14% 2.16% 5.53% 0.91% 3.13% 2.52% -0.45% 1.08% 3.38% 1.55% 2.47% 13.26% 0.27% 6.90% 8.32% 4.11% 6.10% 4.41% 1.37% 2.83% 22.88% 5.57% 13.56% 5.96% -1.85% 1.93% 5.78% 1.39% 3.77% 2.79% 0.01% 1.33% 3.38% 1.49% 2.46% 11.86% -0.30% 5.81% 8.67% 4.37% 6.44% 4.47% 1.39% 2.99% 15.71% -1.10% 6.13% 5.99% -1.78% 2.02% 5.41% 1.05% 3.45% 2.91% -0.16% 1.34% 3.25% 1.39% 2.42% 11.33% -0.77% 5.16% 9.03% 4.63% 6.74% 4.44% 1.33% 2.98% 13.46% -3.07% 5.26% 6.15% -1.90% 2.25% 5.62% 0.51% 3.40% 2.89% -0.36% 1.18% 3.11% 1.18% 2.21% 10.23% -2.07% 3.93% 9.37% 4.55% 6.93% 4.59% 1.21% 2.89% 9.21% -5.37% 2.39% 6.39% -2.03% 2.31% 5.62% 0.45% 3.28% 2.98% -0.36% 1.23% 2.97% 1.02% 2.07% 10.10% -2.28% 3.83% 9.53% 4.55% 6.95% 4.93% 1.12% 2.86% 9.87% -5.83% 2.15% 6.69% -2.13% 2.21% 5.63% 0.21% 3.11% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates with the exception of prime rates which are nominal rates. /1 Data for Maricopa County September 2009 14 Per Capita Income Growth Rate 2010 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 1.00% Lower 10% -2.00% Median -0.50% Panelist 2 Upper 10% -2.24% Lower 10% -4.44% Median -3.34% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 1.00% Lower 10% -3.00% Median -2.50% Panelist 4 Upper 10% -0.60% Lower 10% -1.20% Median -0.80% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 0.00% Lower 10% -2.50% Median -1.50% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 1.50% Lower 10% -1.40% Median -1.00% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 0.00% Lower 10% -6.00% Median -4.00% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 1.20% Lower 10% -1.90% Median -0.50% Panelist 9 Upper 10% 0.80% Lower 10% -3.20% Median -1.20% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 0.00% Lower 10% -3.00% Median -2.00% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 0.30% Lower 10% -1.60% Median -1.20% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 0.50% Lower 10% -1.50% Median 0.00% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 1.49% Lower 10% -2.00% Median -0.50% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 0.90% Lower 10% -2.00% Median -0.40% Panelist 15 Upper 10% -0.50% Lower 10% -3.70% Median -1.50% All data in the above table September 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2021 2026 1.00% -2.00% -0.50% 1.00% -2.00% 0.00% 1.50% -1.50% 0.00% 1.50% -1.50% 0.50% 1.50% -1.00% 0.50% 1.50% -1.00% 0.50% 2.00% 0.00% 0.80% -1.74% -3.45% -2.60% 0.80% -0.60% 0.26% 3.20% 1.20% 2.30% 3.00% 1.20% 2.21% 2.40% 0.00% 1.37% 2.20% 0.00% 1.40% 2.20% 0.00% 1.40% 1.00% -3.00% -2.50% 1.00% -3.00% 0.00% 1.00% -3.00% -2.00% 1.00% -3.00% -2.00% 1.00% -3.00% -2.00% 1.00% -3.00% -2.00% 1.00% -3.00% -2.00% -1.00% -1.90% -1.50% 0.60% -0.80% -0.30% 2.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.40% 1.60% 1.80% 2.90% 1.90% 2.50% 2.80% 1.20% 2.20% 2.50% 1.00% 2.00% 2.00% -2.50% 0.50% 2.50% -1.00% 1.00% 3.00% 0.00% 1.50% 3.50% 0.50% 2.00% 3.00% 0.50% 1.50% 2.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% -1.00% -0.80% 2.50% 0.00% 1.40% 3.00% 0.40% 1.80% 3.20% 0.60% 2.10% 3.50% 0.80% 2.20% 4.00% 1.00% 2.00% 4.00% 1.00% 2.00% 0.00% -3.00% -1.00% 2.50% 0.00% 1.50% 2.50% 0.50% 1.75% 3.00% 1.00% 1.75% 3.50% 1.00% 2.00% 3.50% 1.00% 2.00% 3.50% 1.25% 2.00% 1.40% -2.50% -0.10% 2.00% -1.50% 0.80% 2.70% -0.80% 1.60% 3.00% -0.80% 1.70% 3.60% -1.00% 1.70% 3.70% -0.50% 1.50% 4.30% -1.50% 1.50% 1.00% -3.00% -1.00% 2.00% -2.00% 0.00% 3.20% -0.80% 1.20% 3.50% -0.50% 0.20% 4.50% -0.50% 2.00% 4.00% -1.00% 0.20% 4.00% -1.00% 0.20% 1.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 0.00% 1.00% 3.00% 0.00% 1.47% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 0.70% -0.50% -0.40% 1.30% -0.30% 0.50% 2.00% 0.10% 1.20% 2.80% 0.50% 1.60% 2.50% 0.80% 1.50% 2.20% 0.50% 1.10% 2.20% 0.60% 1.20% 1.00% -1.80% 0.00% 1.50% -1.20% 0.50% 3.10% -1.20% 1.00% 3.20% -0.60% 1.50% 3.50% -1.50% 0.50% 3.50% -4.00% 0.50% 3.50% -4.00% 0.50% 1.09% -2.29% -0.60% 1.99% -1.39% 0.50% 2.99% -0.39% 1.00% 3.25% 0.21% 1.30% 3.30% -0.70% 1.50% 3.50% -0.45% 1.50% 3.50% -0.51% 2.00% 0.70% -3.00% -0.70% 1.40% -1.00% 0.00% 2.60% 0.00% 1.40% 3.00% 0.60% 1.80% 3.00% 0.00% 1.40% 3.50% 0.00% 1.80% 4.00% 0.00% 1.80% -0.21% 1.00% 2.00% 2.50% -3.41% -2.20% -1.20% -0.70% -1.21% 0.00% 1.00% 1.50% are in percentage growth rates. 2.50% -0.70% 1.50% 3.00% -0.20% 2.00% 3.00% -0.20% 2.00% 15 Maricopa County Population Growth Rate 2010 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 1.0% Lower 10% -0.5% Median 0.5% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 1.6% Lower 10% 1.0% Median 1.4% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 2.4% Lower 10% 0.4% Median 1.4% Panelist 4 Upper 10% -2.0% Lower 10% -5.1% Median -4.2% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 2.5% Lower 10% 1.0% Median 1.5% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 1.0% Lower 10% -0.5% Median 0.5% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 1.0% Lower 10% -0.5% Median 0.5% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 2.9% Lower 10% 0.7% Median 1.7% Panelist 9 Upper 10% 2.6% Lower 10% 0.1% Median 1.6% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 3.0% Lower 10% 0.0% Median 1.5% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 2.4% Lower 10% 1.0% Median 1.8% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 2.5% Lower 10% 1.0% Median 1.7% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 2.0% Lower 10% -0.1% Median 1.0% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 2.8% Lower 10% 0.0% Median 1.8% Panelist 15 Upper 10% 1.5% Lower 10% 0.0% Median 1.0% All data in the above table September 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2021 2026 1.5% -0.5% 0.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.8% 1.5% 0.0% 1.2% 1.5% 0.0% 1.2% 2.5% 0.5% 2.0% 2.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.4% 1.4% 2.0% 3.0% 1.8% 2.5% 3.4% 2.0% 2.8% 3.4% 2.0% 2.9% 3.3% 1.9% 2.7% 3.0% 1.8% 2.5% 2.9% 1.7% 2.4% 2.4% 0.4% 1.4% 2.6% 0.4% 1.4% 2.8% 0.4% 1.4% 2.9% 0.4% 1.4% 3.0% 0.6% 1.6% 3.0% 1.0% 1.8% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.2% -2.7% -1.1% 2.4% 0.3% 1.4% 3.9% 1.9% 2.4% 4.1% 2.3% 2.9% 4.1% 2.6% 3.3% 4.0% 2.2% 3.0% 4.0% 2.2% 3.0% 3.0% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 2.0% 3.0% 3.5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.2% 1.2% 2.0% 0.4% 1.4% 2.2% 0.8% 1.6% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 2.8% 1.5% 2.3% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.5% 2.0% 2.7% 3.0% 1.8% 2.5% 2.8% 1.8% 2.3% 2.8% 1.8% 2.1% 3.3% 1.0% 1.9% 3.5% 1.3% 2.3% 3.8% 1.5% 2.4% 3.9% 1.3% 2.4% 3.8% 1.0% 2.3% 3.8% 0.6% 2.2% 3.8% 0.1% 2.1% 3.0% 0.5% 2.0% 3.2% 0.7% 2.2% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.7% 1.5% 2.6% 3.7% 1.5% 2.6% 3.4% 1.0% 2.2% 3.2% 0.8% 2.0% 3.5% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 1.5% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.5% 2.5% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 1.5% 2.6% 1.2% 2.2% 3.0% 1.5% 2.4% 3.6% 1.6% 2.8% 4.0% 1.6% 3.2% 3.7% 1.4% 3.0% 3.2% 1.0% 2.4% 3.0% 0.5% 1.8% 3.0% 1.2% 1.9% 3.2% 1.7% 2.3% 4.0% 1.8% 2.5% 4.0% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 1.4% 2.4% 3.2% 1.3% 2.3% 3.2% 1.2% 2.2% 3.5% 1.5% 3.0% 3.5% 1.5% 2.7% 3.5% 1.5% 2.7% 3.5% 1.5% 2.7% 3.3% 1.5% 2.5% 3.3% 1.5% 2.5% 3.2% 1.5% 2.5% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.9% 1.7% 2.8% 4.5% 2.0% 3.2% 3.5% 1.4% 2.4% 3.2% 1.0% 2.2% 3.0% 0.0% 1.9% 3.0% 0.0% 1.9% 2.7% 1.2% 2.2% 2.5% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.5% 1.5% 2.0% 3.5% 3.7% 3.0% 0.5% 2.0% 2.2% 1.5% 1.5% 3.0% 3.2% 2.5% are in percentage growth rates. 16 Maricopa County Construction Employment Growth Rate 2010 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 0.0% Lower 10% -10.0% Median -5.0% Panelist 2 Upper 10% -6.0% Lower 10% -20.4% Median -12.0% Panelist 3 Upper 10% -1.0% Lower 10% -7.0% Median -1.5% Panelist 4 Upper 10% -3.0% Lower 10% -15.0% Median -6.0% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 15.0% Lower 10% -5.0% Median 0.0% Panelist 6 Upper 10% -5.0% Lower 10% -13.0% Median -10.0% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 0.0% Lower 10% -10.0% Median -5.0% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 3.5% Lower 10% -14.0% Median -5.0% Panelist 9 Upper 10% -1.0% Lower 10% -16.0% Median -6.0% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 5.0% Lower 10% -5.0% Median 0.0% Panelist 11 Upper 10% -2.0% Lower 10% -16.0% Median -14.0% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 0.0% Lower 10% -10.0% Median -5.0% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 4.0% Lower 10% -15.0% Median -4.9% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 2.0% Lower 10% -15.0% Median -8.0% Panelist 15 Upper 10% -4.0% Lower 10% -10.0% Median -7.0% All data in the above table September 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2021 2026 5.0% -10.0% -5.0% 5.0% -10.0% 0.0% 5.0% -5.0% 2.0% 5.0% 0.0% 4.0% 6.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% -1.3% -4.3% -2.5% 19.5% 4.5% 15.0% 19.5% 4.5% 15.0% 13.0% 1.0% 10.0% 6.5% 0.5% 5.0% 2.6% 0.2% 2.0% 2.6% 0.2% 2.0% 0.0% -7.0% -1.0% 6.0% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% 3.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.5% -7.5% -2.5% 8.5% 1.0% 5.0% 9.0% 2.5% 7.5% 10.0% 2.5% 7.0% 12.0% 2.5% 5.0% 12.5% 2.5% 5.0% 12.0% 2.5% 5.0% 25.0% -5.0% 15.0% 25.0% 0.0% 15.0% 20.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 2.0% 5.0% 10.0% 2.0% 5.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% -10.0% -5.0% 5.0% -5.0% 0.5% 6.0% -4.0% 1.0% 6.0% 0.0% 2.0% 7.0% 1.0% 3.0% 8.0% 2.0% 5.0% 8.0% 2.0% 5.0% 5.0% -10.0% 0.0% 5.0% -2.5% 2.0% 7.5% 2.0% 5.0% 15.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 7.5% 7.5% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 12.0% -7.5% 2.5% 16.0% -3.0% 5.8% 18.0% -6.0% 6.0% 20.0% -10.0% 6.2% 22.0% -12.0% 4.0% 23.0% -14.0% 3.5% 24.0% -15.0% 3.5% 5.0% -10.0% 0.0% 13.0% -3.0% 5.0% 15.0% -1.0% 7.0% 15.0% -1.0% 7.0% 15.0% -5.0% 5.0% 19.0% -11.0% 4.0% 18.5% -11.5% 3.5% 15.0% 0.0% 10.0% 25.0% 5.0% 20.0% 20.0% 10.0% -15.0% 10.0% 3.0% 5.0% 10.0% 3.0% 5.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.5% 5.0% 3.0% 3.5% 3.0% -8.0% -4.0% 6.0% -3.0% 2.0% 9.0% 1.0% 6.0% 10.0% 2.0% 8.0% 12.0% 3.0% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 6.0% 10.0% 0.0% 6.0% 5.0% -5.0% 0.0% 10.0% -3.0% 0.0% 15.0% -1.0% 1.5% 15.0% 0.0% 2.0% 12.0% 2.0% 5.0% 12.0% -5.0% 5.0% 12.0% -5.0% 5.0% 11.0% -10.0% 3.0% 14.4% -6.0% 6.5% 17.9% -5.9% 6.0% 16.9% -6.9% 5.0% 18.5% -8.5% 5.0% 16.8% -9.8% 3.5% 17.4% -10.4% 3.5% 8.0% -8.0% 0.0% 16.0% -3.0% 6.0% 18.0% -6.0% 6.5% 18.0% -8.0% 6.0% 16.0% -10.0% 5.0% 16.0% -10.0% 3.5% 16.0% -10.0% 3.5% 8.0% 2.0% 5.0% 7.0% 1.0% 4.0% 7.0% 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 8.0% 11.0% 9.0% -5.0% 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% -2.0% 5.0% 8.0% 6.0% are in percentage growth rates. 17 Prime Interest Rate 2010 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 4.0% Lower 10% 2.0% Median 3.0% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 4.0% Lower 10% 2.7% Median 3.3% Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% 5.5% Lower 10% 1.0% Median 3.3% Panelist 5 3.5% Upper 10% Lower 10% 3.0% Median 3.3% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 6.0% Lower 10% 1.0% Median 4.0% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 6.0% Lower 10% 3.0% Median 4.0% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 6.0% Lower 10% 3.3% Median 3.8% Panelist 9 Upper 10% 5.0% Lower 10% 1.0% Median 3.0% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 4.5% Lower 10% 3.5% Median 3.5% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 5.0% Lower 10% 3.0% Median 3.8% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 6.0% Lower 10% 2.0% Median 3.0% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 5.5% Lower 10% 1.0% Median 3.3% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 6.0% Lower 10% 1.5% Median 3.4% Panelist 15 Upper 10% 5.5% Lower 10% 2.5% Median 3.0% All data in the above table N/A means not available September 2009 2011 2012 6.0% 2.0% 3.0% 8.0% 2.0% 3.0% 5.2% 3.5% 4.4% 7.4% 4.9% 6.1% 2013 2014 2016 2021 2026 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 12.0% 12.0% 4.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.7% 5.8% 7.3% 9.0% 6.0% 7.5% 8.7% 5.8% 7.2% 8.4% 5.6% 7.0% 8.4% 5.6% 7.0% N/A 6.2% 1.8% 4.0% 7.8% 3.3% 5.5% 8.7% 4.2% 6.4% 9.3% 4.8% 7.1% 10.5% 11.1% 11.4% 5.1% 4.5% 4.2% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 4.0% 3.3% 3.5% 6.5% 4.0% 5.0% 7.0% 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% 5.5% 7.0% 8.5% 6.0% 7.5% 8.5% 6.0% 7.5% 8.5% 6.0% 7.5% 6.0% 1.0% 4.2% 6.0% 1.0% 5.0% 6.5% 1.5% 5.0% 7.0% 2.0% 5.5% 7.0% 2.0% 5.5% 7.0% 2.0% 5.5% 7.0% 2.0% 5.5% 7.0% 3.3% 4.0% 8.0% 4.5% 5.5% 8.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.5% 5.0% 6.5% 7.5% 5.0% 6.5% 7.5% 5.0% 6.5% 7.5% 5.0% 6.5% 8.0% 3.0% 5.0% 9.0% 3.5% 6.0% 9.5% 3.8% 6.5% 9.8% 3.3% 6.0% 6.0% 2.0% 4.0% 7.0% 3.0% 5.0% 8.5% 2.5% 5.5% 9.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.5% 3.5% 6.5% 9.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 3.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.5% 4.0% 7.0% 4.0% 6.0% 9.0% 6.0% 8.0% 8.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 5.0% 7.0% 5.4% 3.3% 4.0% 5.6% 3.5% 4.6% 6.0% 4.0% 5.2% 7.5% 4.4% 6.0% 9.0% 4.2% 7.0% 8.0% 4.0% 6.4% 8.2% 4.0% 6.2% 6.5% 2.0% 4.0% 8.0% 2.0% 4.5% 8.0% 2.0% 5.0% 8.0% 2.5% 5.5% 8.0% 3.5% 6.0% 9.0% 4.0% 6.5% 10.0% 4.5% 7.0% 6.2% 1.8% 4.0% 7.8% 3.3% 5.5% 8.7% 4.2% 6.4% 9.3% 4.8% 7.1% 10.5% 11.1% 11.4% 5.1% 4.5% 4.2% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 6.5% 2.0% 4.5% 8.2% 3.5% 6.0% 9.4% 4.5% 7.0% 9.5% 4.8% 7.0% 10.0% 12.0% 12.0% 5.4% 5.0% 5.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.0% 6.5% 7.5% 8.5% 3.5% 4.0% 5.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% are in nominal rates. 9.5% 6.0% 7.0% 10.3% 10.5% 11.0% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 8.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 6.0% 7.0% 18 U. S. Housing Start Growth Rate 2010 Panelist 1 0.0% Upper 10% Lower 10% -5.0% Median 0.0% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 5.0% Lower 10% -12.0% Median -2.5% Panelist 3 8.0% Upper 10% Lower 10% -5.0% Median 0.0% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 1.0% Lower 10% -8.0% Median -2.0% Panelist 5 25.0% Upper 10% Lower 10% 0.0% Median 15.0% Panelist 6 0.0% Upper 10% Lower 10% -12.0% Median -9.0% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 10.0% Lower 10% -5.0% Median 0.0% Panelist 8 6.0% Upper 10% Lower 10% -6.0% Median -2.0% Panelist 9 Upper 10% 5.0% Lower 10% -15.0% Median 0.0% Panelist 10 10.0% Upper 10% Lower 10% -5.0% Median 0.0% Panelist 11 Upper 10% -4.0% Lower 10% -32.0% Median -22.0% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 8.0% Lower 10% -10.0% Median -2.0% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 5.3% Lower 10% -5.0% Median -2.0% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 5.0% Lower 10% -8.0% Median 0.0% Panelist 15 5.0% Upper 10% Lower 10% -5.0% Median 0.0% All data in the above table September 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2021 2026 5.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 55.0% 20.0% 41.7% 65.0% 20.0% 53.5% 40.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% -10.0% -10.0% -10.0% -10.0% 30.0% 0.9% -0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 12.0% 0.0% 8.0% 20.0% 0.0% 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 4.0% 6.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% 0.0% 1.0% 12.5% 0.0% 10.0% 35.0% 10.0% 25.0% 30.0% 10.0% 20.0% 23.0% 4.5% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 5.0% 8.0% -1.5% 4.0% 4.0% -5.5% 0.0% 60.0% 20.0% 45.0% 50.0% 25.0% 40.0% 40.0% 20.0% 30.0% 20.0% 5.0% 10.0% 7.5% 2.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% -5.0% -2.0% 5.0% -5.0% 0.5% 15.0% 0.0% 10.0% 30.0% 0.0% 20.0% 48.0% 1.0% 30.0% 8.0% 1.0% 5.0% 8.0% 1.0% 5.0% 25.0% 5.0% 15.0% 35.0% 10.0% 25.0% 15.0% 5.0% 10.0% 7.5% 3.0% 5.0% 7.5% 2.0% 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 3.0% 40.0% 12.0% 28.0% 35.0% 8.0% 15.0% 18.0% 3.0% 6.0% 15.0% -5.0% 3.0% 50.0% 20.0% 35.0% 40.0% 10.0% 25.0% 30.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 15.0% 0.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -15.0% 15.0% 5.0% 0.0% -0.5% 0.0% 20.0% 0.0% 15.0% 30.0% 15.0% 25.0% 30.0% 20.0% 25.0% 10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 6.0% 10.0% -20.0% -10.0% -4.0% 2.0% 9.0% -2.0% 6.0% 19.0% 0.0% 8.0% 11.0% 2.0% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 6.0% 10.0% 0.0% 6.0% 15.0% -5.0% 5.0% 30.0% 0.0% 10.0% 40.0% 2.0% 8.0% 40.0% 0.0% 5.0% 25.0% -1.0% 3.0% 10.0% -5.0% 2.0% 10.0% -8.0% 2.0% 60.3% 10.0% 53.5% 37.3% 15.0% 30.4% 19.2% 5.6% 12.4% 10.1% -5.0% 5.0% 13.9% 15.1% 18.1% -10.0% -15.0% -15.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 55.0% 30.0% 40.0% 40.0% 20.0% 30.0% 20.0% 0.0% 10.0% 10.0% -3.0% 3.0% 12.0% -6.0% 3.0% 14.0% -6.0% 1.0% 14.0% -6.0% 1.0% 60.0% 50.0% 20.0% 5.0% 40.0% 30.0% 10.0% -1.0% 50.0% 40.0% 15.0% 4.0% are in percentage growth rates. 5.0% -1.0% 4.0% 5.0% -1.0% 4.0% 5.0% -1.0% 4.0% 16.0% 19.0% 25.0% -10.0% -20.0% -25.0% 3.0% 2.3% 2.1% 19 Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic Growth Rate 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 5.0% Lower 10% -10.0% -5.0% -5.0% -5.0% -3.0% Median -5.0% -2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 1.2% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% Lower 10% -10.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -3.0% Median -5.0% 1.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% N/A Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% 0.4% 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.5% Lower 10% -10.0% -5.0% -5.0% -4.0% -4.0% Median -4.4% 1.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 2.0% 2.5% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Lower 10% -3.0% -1.0% -1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Median -1.0% 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Lower 10% -8.0% -2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Median -5.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.4% 1.6% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 2.0% 7.5% 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% Lower 10% -6.0% 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.5% Median -3.0% 5.0% 7.5% 4.0% 3.0% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 2.0% 6.0% 6.5% 6.6% 6.8% Lower 10% -10.0% -6.0% -4.0% -4.2% -4.5% Median -4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% Panelist 9 Upper 10% 0.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.5% 7.5% Lower 10% -10.0% -5.0% -4.0% -4.5% -4.5% Median -5.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 1.0% 7.0% 7.0% 5.0% 5.0% Lower 10% -5.0% 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% Median -3.0% 5.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% Lower 10% -6.0% -4.5% -3.5% -1.0% -0.5% Median -3.0% -2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 5.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% Lower 10% -10.0% -5.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% Median -5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 5.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Lower 10% -9.6% -4.2% -3.9% -3.7% -3.4% Median -5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 0.0% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% Lower 10% -10.0% -5.0% -5.0% -3.0% -3.0% Median -5.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.9% Panelist 15 Upper 10% -1.5% 4.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% Lower 10% -7.5% -1.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% Median -5.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. N/A means not available September 2009 2016 2021 2026 6.0% -3.0% 1.5% 6.0% -3.0% 1.5% 5.0% -3.0% 1.5% 4.0% -3.0% 2.2% 4.0% -3.0% 2.2% 4.0% -3.0% 2.0% 4.0% -5.0% 2.0% 4.5% -5.0% 2.5% 4.7% -5.0% 2.5% 7.0% 0.0% 2.5% 7.0% 0.0% 2.5% 7.0% 0.0% 2.5% 6.0% 1.0% 2.0% 6.0% 1.0% 2.0% 6.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% 1.5% 3.0% 5.0% 1.5% 3.0% 5.0% 1.5% 3.0% 7.5% -5.0% 2.6% 9.0% -7.0% 2.4% 15.0% -8.0% 2.3% 8.0% -4.0% 2.0% 8.0% -4.0% 2.0% 8.0% -4.0% 2.0% 5.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.5% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 8.0% -2.0% 2.0% 8.0% -2.0% 3.0% 8.0% -2.0% 3.0% 8.0% -4.0% 2.5% 9.0% -4.0% 2.5% 8.0% -4.3% 2.5% 9.0% -4.0% 2.2% 10.0% -4.0% 2.2% 10.0% -4.0% 2.2% 5.5% -0.5% 2.0% 6.0% 0.0% 2.5% 6.0% 0.0% 2.5% 20 Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2021 2026 1.0% -5.0% -3.0% 1.0% -5.0% -1.0% 2.0% -3.0% 1.0% 2.5% -2.0% 1.5% 3.0% 0.0% 2.2% 3.0% 0.0% 2.4% 3.0% 1.5% 2.5% 3.0% 1.5% 2.5% -3.0% -8.0% -6.0% 0.8% -3.0% 0.3% 4.5% 1.0% 2.5% 6.0% 2.0% 5.0% 6.5% 2.0% 5.2% 5.0% 2.0% 3.8% 4.5% 1.5% 2.8% 4.5% 1.5% 2.6% 1.0% -1.4% -0.3% 2.5% -0.1% 0.9% 4.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 0.6% 2.4% 4.0% 1.0% 2.7% 4.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.6% 5.0% 1.0% 4.1% -1.0% -7.0% -3.5% 1.6% -3.7% 0.0% 3.1% -0.6% 2.5% 4.7% 2.5% 3.3% 4.7% 2.7% 3.7% 7.5% -1.0% 5.0% 7.3% -1.3% 4.8% 7.4% -1.4% 4.7% 0.0% -5.0% -3.0% 3.0% -1.5% 1.0% 6.5% 2.0% 5.0% 6.5% 2.5% 5.5% 6.5% 3.0% 5.5% 6.0% 2.5% 5.0% 5.0% 2.0% 4.0% 5.0% 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% -1.0% 0.5% 2.0% -1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 6.0% 1.0% 4.5% 6.0% 1.0% 5.0% 6.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% -5.0% -3.0% 2.5% -3.0% 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 4.0% 7.5% 2.5% 5.0% 5.0% 2.5% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.4% -3.0% 1.2% 5.5% -2.0% 2.0% 6.9% 0.8% 3.3% 7.0% 0.0% 3.2% 7.5% -1.0% 3.2% 8.5% -1.5% 3.0% 9.0% -1.8% 2.8% 10.0% -3.0% 2.5% 1.5% -4.5% -1.5% 4.5% -1.5% 1.5% 6.5% 0.5% 3.5% 6.5% -0.5% 3.0% 6.0% -1.0% 2.5% 5.8% -1.2% 2.3% 6.2% -1.8% 2.2% 6.2% -1.8% 2.2% 1.0% -1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.5% 2.5% 4.0% 2.0% 3.5% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.5% 2.0% 3.5% 4.0% 2.0% 3.5% 4.0% 2.0% 3.5% 4.0% 2.0% 3.5% 0.5% -2.6% -1.5% 1.5% -1.8% -0.5% 3.0% 0.0% 1.2% 4.5% 0.2% 2.6% 7.0% 1.0% 3.7% 6.0% 1.2% 3.5% 5.5% 1.0% 3.2% 5.0% 0.8% 3.1% 2.0% -3.0% -1.0% 9.0% -3.0% 4.0% 10.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.1% -4.8% -3.0% 6.0% -1.0% 2.0% 7.0% 2.0% 3.5% 7.0% 2.0% 3.5% 7.0% -0.5% 3.5% 8.0% -1.4% 3.0% 9.0% -1.6% 3.0% 9.0% -2.4% 3.0% 8.0% 2.0% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 3.0% 7.0% -2.0% 3.0% 7.0% -2.0% 3.0% 7.0% -2.0% 3.0% 7.5% 4.5% 5.0% 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% growth rates. 4.5% 2.0% 3.0% 4.8% 2.3% 3.3% 4.4% 1.9% 2.9% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 2.0% 5.0% 8.0% Lower 10% -6.0% -2.0% 2.0% Median -2.0% 2.0% 5.0% Panelist 15 Upper 10% -4.5% 0.5% 7.5% Lower 10% -7.0% -2.0% 5.0% Median -6.0% -1.0% 6.0% All data in the above table are in percentage September 2009 21 Phoenix CPI Growth Rate 2010 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 2.0% Lower 10% -2.0% Median 0.0% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 0.3% Lower 10% -0.5% Median 0.0% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 1.5% Lower 10% -1.0% Median -0.4% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 0.8% Lower 10% -1.2% Median 0.2% Panelist 5 1.0% Upper 10% Lower 10% -1.5% Median 0.0% Panelist 6 2.2% Upper 10% Lower 10% -1.0% Median 1.0% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 1.0% Lower 10% -1.0% Median 0.0% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 1.5% Lower 10% -1.0% Median 0.2% Panelist 9 2.0% Upper 10% Lower 10% 0.0% Median 1.0% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 2.0% Lower 10% 0.5% Median 1.5% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 1.8% Lower 10% 0.8% Median 1.2% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 1.0% Lower 10% 0.0% Median 0.5% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 2.5% Lower 10% -1.5% Median 1.0% Panelist 14 Upper 10% 1.5% Lower 10% -1.0% Median 0.0% Panelist 15 Upper 10% 3.5% Lower 10% 0.0% Median 0.5% All data in the above table September 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2021 2026 4.0% 0.0% 1.5% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 6.0% 1.5% 3.0% 6.0% 2.0% 3.0% 7.0% 2.0% 3.0% 8.0% 2.0% 3.0% 10.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.9% 1.4% 2.1% 3.4% 1.7% 2.4% 3.1% 1.6% 2.2% 3.1% 1.6% 2.2% 3.1% 1.6% 2.2% 3.1% 1.5% 2.2% 3.1% 1.5% 2.2% 1.8% 0.0% 0.8% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.8% 8.6% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 2.0% -1.0% 1.6% 3.5% -0.6% 2.0% 3.8% 0.4% 2.2% 3.7% 0.9% 2.5% 3.9% 1.2% 2.8% 3.8% 1.0% 2.6% 3.8% 0.8% 2.4% 3.0% 0.0% 1.5% 3.5% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 1.5% 2.0% 4.0% 1.5% 2.0% 4.0% 1.5% 2.0% 4.5% 1.0% 2.0% 4.5% 1.0% 2.0% 2.5% -1.0% 1.5% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.1% 4.0% 0.0% 2.1% 4.0% 0.0% 2.1% 2.5% 0.0% 2.0% 3.5% 2.0% 2.5% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.9% -0.5% 1.1% 3.4% 0.0% 1.5% 3.7% 0.4% 1.9% 3.9% 0.3% 2.0% 4.3% 0.2% 2.1% 5.0% 0.0% 2.1% 8.0% -0.5% 2.1% 2.5% 0.5% 1.5% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 4.5% 1.5% 3.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.5% 3.9% 0.9% 2.4% 3.7% 0.7% 2.2% 3.0% 1.5% 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.5% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.8% 1.4% 2.1% 3.5% 1.8% 3.2% 3.7% 2.0% 3.4% 3.7% 1.8% 3.3% 3.6% 1.8% 3.6% 3.5% 1.2% 3.2% 3.4% 1.0% 3.1% 3.0% 0.5% 1.0% 3.2% 1.0% 1.5% 3.5% 1.0% 1.8% 3.5% 1.0% 2.0% 3.5% 1.0% 2.0% 3.5% 1.0% 2.0% 3.5% 1.0% 2.0% 3.3% 0.6% 2.0% 3.7% 1.0% 2.5% 3.7% 1.0% 3.0% 3.6% 0.9% 3.0% 3.2% 0.8% 3.0% 3.0% 0.6% 2.5% 3.4% 0.4% 2.5% 3.0% 0.8% 2.0% 4.0% 1.2% 2.4% 4.0% 1.2% 2.6% 4.0% 0.9% 2.2% 3.5% 0.9% 2.0% 3.0% 0.9% 2.0% 3.0% 0.9% 2.0% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.0% 5.5% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% are in percentage growth rates. 5.5% 2.0% 2.5% 5.5% 2.0% 2.5% 22 HISTORICAL DATA GROWTH IN REAL INCOME PER CAPITA Using Phoenix CPI to Measure Inflation (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 2.9% 1.4% -7.7% -4.2% 2.6% 2.6% 1.3% -1.7% -0.4% -0.6% 1.6% 4.4% 2.3% 3.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 -0.4% -2.8% -1.2% -0.9% -0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 1.8% 1.5% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2.5% 1.6% -0.5% -0.2% 1.8% 3.5% 3.4% 1.0% -2.5% -0.9% *Estimate HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 6.0% Percent Change 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 -10.0% Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2009 Historical Min. Max. Mean -2.5% 3.5% 0.9% -2.5% 3.5% 1.0% -7.7% 4.4% 0.5% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 2.6% -1.8% 3.5% 1.9% -1.0% 3.4% 2.3% -2.0% 3.0% 23 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 6.4% 5.2% 3.0% 2.1% 3.9% 4.4% 4.9% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 4.4% 3.0% 2.9% 3.2% 4.4% 5.3% 4.2% 4.5% 2.9% 2.6% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1.4% 3.1% 3.4% 3.8% 4.9% 5.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 3.1% 3.3% 3.0% 2.7% 3.2% 4.0% 3.6% 2.6% 2.3% 1.7% FY 2008 and prior from U. S. Census Bureau. * FY 2009 to 2010 based on May 2009 Phoenix Blue Chip Forecast estimate while FY 2011-2013 based on ADOT forecast. FY 2014-2026 based on AZ Dept of Commerce Population Projections 2006-2055 growth rates dated March 31, 2006. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 7.0% Percent Change 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 0.0% Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2009 Historical Min. Max. Mean 1.7% 4.0% 2.8% 1.7% 4.0% 3.0% 1.4% 6.4% 3.6% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 0.9% 1.9% 3.8% 0.7% 2.3% 3.6% 1.1% 2.5% 4.9% 24 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY GROWTH IN CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 16.1% 0.2% -16.4% -12.4% 13.7% 34.0% 29.7% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 5.5% -4.9% -4.5% 6.1% 22.3% 20.0% 8.8% -4.0% -7.3% -7.0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 -7.1% -5.6% -1.4% 7.0% 14.5% 15.4% 9.6% 6.0% 8.1% 9.3% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 5.8% 5.7% 2.8% 1.1% 5.9% 11.6% 12.0% 2.6% -9.5% -12.4% FY 2007 and prior from Bureau of Economic Analysis. * FY 2008 to 2010 based on May 2009 Phoenix Blue Chip Forecat. FY 2011 based on ADOT estimates. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 40.0% Percent Change 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 -20.0% Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2009 Historical Min. Max. Mean -12.4% 12.0% 0.9% -12.4% 12.0% 2.6% -16.4% 34.0% 4.9% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 11.5% -11.2% 11.9% 8.0% -9.8% 11.7% 11.5% -8.2% 17.6% 25 HISTORICAL DATA PRIME INTEREST RATE HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 5.1% 5.6% 6.0% 7.1% 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 7.9% 6.8% 5.5% 6.6% 9.4% 9.3% 7.4% 6.8% 7.9% 10.9% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 14.0% 17.1% 16.9% 12.8% 11.4% 11.0% 9.1% 8.3% 8.8% 10.1% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 10.4% 9.2% 7.4% 6.1% 6.6% 8.0% 8.5% 8.3% 8.4% 8.2% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 8.6% 8.1% 5.8% 4.4% 4.2% 5.3% 7.1% 8.0% 6.6% 4.2% FY 2008 and prior from Federal Reserve. FY 2009 and after based on May 2009 Global Insight Trend Forecast. * Estimate 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 1969 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1967 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2009 Historical Min. Max. 4.2% 8.0% 4.2% 8.6% 4.2% 17.1% Std. 80% Range Mean Dev. Lower Upper 6.2% 1.5% 4.6% 7.6% 6.2% 1.7% 4.2% 8.1% 8.3% 2.9% 5.3% 11.3% 26 HISTORICAL DATA PHOENIX CPI GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 5.6% 7.6% 15.3% 12.2% 6.5% 8.9% 12.4% 14.9% 12.5% 7.7% 3.4% 3.7% 5.4% 3.1% 2.7% 4.1% 4.5% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 5.2% 4.1% 2.7% 3.4% 3.7% 4.2% 5.1% 4.8% 4.0% 3.6% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 3.2% 2.4% 1.5% 1.6% 2.0% 2.4% 3.0% 3.2% 3.4% 1.1% * Estimate HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 Percent Change 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2009 Historical Min. Max. Mean 1.1% 3.4% 2.6% 1.1% 3.4% 2.4% 1.1% 15.3% 5.3% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 0.9% 1.6% 3.3% 0.8% 1.5% 3.3% 3.7% 2.2% 12.3% 27 HISTORICAL DATA US HOUSING START GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1.1% 1.6% -3.4% -9.3% -7.9% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 -10.3% -14.1% 0.3% 12.4% 10.3% 2.4% 0.7% 4.2% 4.7% 5.4% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* -1.5% -1.2% 4.3% 7.4% 7.1% 5.8% -3.8% -18.4% -28.4% -36.3% FY 2008 and prior from U.S. Bureau of Census. * FY 2009 estimate and after based on Global Insight, May 2009, Trend Forecast. 2009 2004 2007 2002 1998 2005 2000 1996 2003 2001 1994 1990 1999 1992 1988 1997 1995 1986 1982 1993 1984 1980 1991 1989 1978 1974 1987 1976 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 10.0% 14.0% 0.0% 12.0% 10.0% -10.0% 8.0% -20.0% 6.0% 4.0% -30.0% 2.0% -40.0% 0.0% 1985 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Fiscal Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2009 Historical Min. Max. -36.3% 5.8% -36.3% 7.4% -36.3% 12.4% Mean -16.2% -6.5% -2.7% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 17.3% -33.1% 1.9% 15.7% -29.2% 7.1% 11.7% -16.7% 7.3% 28 HISTORICAL DATA SKY HARBOR PASSENGER TRAFFIC GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 3.6% 8.4% 12.2% 8.4% 2.4% 5.7% 12.2% 16.1% 18.7% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 5.0% -2.8% 6.8% 13.9% 20.6% 24.8% 19.6% 14.8% 10.9% 8.1% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 6.4% 3.4% 0.9% 3.3% 7.7% 8.6% 8.9% 4.8% 2.2% 4.6% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 6.5% 2.7% -0.7% 2.8% 5.4% 4.9% 2.4% 1.2% -1.4% -7.0% * Historical data FY 2008 and prior obtained from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport and Phoenix-Mesa GatewayAirport. FY 2009 Phoenix Sky Harbor staff estimate. FY 2010 and after ADOT staff estimates. 2009 2004 2002 2007 1997 1994 1999 1996 2001 1998 2003 2000 2005 1995 1992 1993 1990 1988 1991 1979 1978 1981 1980 1983 1982 1985 1984 1987 1986 1989 1977 1976 1974 1975 18.0% 30.0% 16.0% 25.0% 14.0% 20.0% 12.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 5.0% 6.0% 0.0% 4.0% -5.0% 2.0% -10.0% 0.0% 1973 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Fiscal Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2009 Historical Min. Max. -7.0% 4.9% -7.0% 6.5% -2.8% 24.8% Mean 0.0% 1.7% 8.4% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 4.5% -4.7% 3.9% 4.0% -2.0% 5.5% 6.5% 2.2% 18.4% 29 HISTORICAL DATA - MARICOPA COUNTY TOTAL NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 5.5% 5.5% 4.9% 6.8% 5.8% 5.1% 8.6% 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 7.8% 5.9% 8.5% 11.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.5% 6.9% 11.1% 11.8% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 6.9% 3.4% 1.5% 2.9% 8.6% 10.2% 6.9% 4.1% 4.7% 4.1% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 3.0% 5.8% 6.9% 7.2% 6.3% 5.4% 5.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 4.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.7% 2.7% 5.1% 5.8% 3.5% -0.4% -2.9% FY 2008 and prior from Bureau of Labor Statistics. FY 2009 and after ADOT staff estimates. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 2009 2004 2003 2000 2005 2002 2007 1997 1996 1999 1998 2001 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1983 1986 1985 1988 1987 1990 1989 1977 1982 1979 1984 1981 1971 1978 1973 1980 1975 1965 1974 1967 1976 1969 1963 Percent Change 18.0% 14.0% 16.0% 12.0% 14.0% 10.0% 12.0% 8.0% 10.0% 6.0% 8.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0% -2.0% 2.0% -4.0% 0.0% Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2009 Historical Min. Max. Mean -2.9% 5.8% 2.2% -2.9% 5.8% 2.1% -2.9% 11.8% 4.9% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 3.7% -1.9% 5.5% 2.7% -0.7% 5.2% 3.3% 0.5% 8.6% 30