Arizona Department of Transportation MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX Forecasting Process & Results FY 2009-2026 Financial Management Services September 2008 MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES Introduction In 1985, the voters of Maricopa County approved Proposition 300 to establish a onehalf cent transportation excise (sales) tax for construction of a regional freeway system within the county. The half cent sales tax was approved for a period of 20 years and ended on December 31, 2005. On November 2, 2004, Maricopa County’s voters approved Proposition 400 which extended the one-half cent sales tax for another 20 years through December 31, 2025. The sales tax extension will be used for construction of new freeways, widening of existing freeways and highways, improvements to the arterial street system, regional bus service and other special transportation services, and high capacity transit services such as light rail, bus rapid transit and express buses. This document contains the official forecast of expected values for the Maricopa County Transportation Excise Tax for the period FY 2009-2026 developed by the Arizona Department of Transportation in cooperation with the Maricopa Association of Governments, Valley Metro and Valley Metro Rail. Background Since 1986, the Arizona Department of Transportation (the Department) has used a comprehensive regression-based econometric model to estimate Transportation Excise Tax revenues for Maricopa County. These revenues, which flow into the Regional Area Road Fund (RARF), are the major funding source for the Maricopa County Freeway Program. The revenue forecast is highly dependent on estimates of independent variables. In order to deal with variability between estimated and actual values, the Department introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies on probability analysis and the independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. The process results in a series of forecasts, with specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate. Enhanced forecasting accuracy was achieved in July 1996, when Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB) working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State University, incorporated economic data and independent variables which were not included in the 1986 model. September 2008 1 In September 2005, the Department had HDR Decision Economics re-examine the structure of the RARF modal and re-evaluate the set of explanatory variables used in the production of the RARF revenue forecasts. Three new variables (U. S. Housing Starts, Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic and Maricopa County Total NonFarm Employment Growth) were added to the existing list of variables used in the RARF regression equations. The independent variables contained in the updated model are: • • • • • • • • Maricopa County real income growth per capita Maricopa County population growth Maricopa County construction employment growth U. S. housing start growth Sky Harbor passenger traffic growth Maricopa County total non-farm employment growth Phoenix Consumer Price Index (CPI) Prime interest rate. Risk Analysis Panel The Risk Analysis Process (RAP) relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economists to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In August 2008, an expert panel of thirteen economists representing public, private, and academic sectors provided their individual estimates of the model’s independent variables and comments on the future economic outlook. Model Results The model results from the panelists inputs produced a mean forecast of $12,722.2 million for the period FY 2009-2026 with a mean forecast average compound growth rate (CGR) of 7.0 percent. The FY 2009-2026 Official Forecast totals $12,497.7 million with an average compound growth rate of 6.9 percent. The forecast result is $1,131.2 million lower than last year’s forecast due mainly to the lower revenue base of $380.1 million in FY 2008 and slower revenue growth in FY 2009 and FY 2010. However, the model forecasts higher growth rates in FY 2011-2017 as the economy recovers from the housing and financial uncertainty. For the remaining years, FY 20182026, the estimated revenue growth rates are projected to be about even. The Official Forecast incorporates the 50 percent confidence interval for each year of the forecast except for FY 2009. The FY 2009 forecast of $380.5 million was developed by ADOT staff independently of the econometric model using time series techniques, historical and projected growth rates from the model. September 2008 2 Official Forecast Results (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026/1 Total Average CGR Mean Forecast $379.5 400.1 437.0 475.7 514.8 554.9 596.1 638.4 682.2 728.1 776.0 826.7 880.1 937.0 997.7 1,062.6 1,131.8 703.5 $12,722.2 7.0% Official Forecast $380.5 396.8 431.5 467.9 505.3 544.9 585.6 626.8 670.6 715.0 759.4 809.9 862.1 918.1 978.8 1,043.7 1,112.2 688.6 $12,497.7 6.9% Confidence Level N/A 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Note: Amount in current dollars Totals may not add due to individual rounding /1. Relects the end of the one-half cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025 September 2008 3 For comparison purposes, the September 2007 and September 2008 Official Forecasts are shown below: FY 2009 Comparative Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026/1 Sept. 07 Official Forecast $429.5 455.9 485.8 518.8 554.2 591.3 630.7 674.1 719.6 768.9 820.3 876.4 936.3 997.8 1,066.4 1,137.8 1,211.0 754.1 Sept. 08 Official Forecast $380.5 396.8 431.5 467.9 505.3 544.9 585.6 626.8 670.6 715.0 759.4 809.9 862.1 918.1 978.8 1,043.7 1,112.2 688.6 Total Average CGR $13,628.9 6.7% $12,497.7 6.9% Difference ($49.0) (59.1) (54.3) (50.9) (48.9) (46.4) (45.1) (47.3) (49.0) (53.9) (60.9) (66.5) (74.2) (79.7) (87.6) (94.1) (98.8) (65.5) ($1,131.2) Note: Amount in current dollars. Totals may not add due to individual rounding. /1 Reflects the end of the one-half cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025 September 2008 4 Summary The Official Forecast for FY 2009-2026 totals $12,497.7 million, a decrease of $1,131.2 million from the September 2007 Official Forecast. Compared to last year, the Risk Analysis Process panel forecasted significantly lower growth rates for all the independent variables and higher inflation rates for FY 2009-2010. However, the RAP panel members expect higher real income, construction and non-farm employment and U.S. housing start growth rates for FY 2011-2016 period. For the remaining of the period, FY 2017-2026, the growth rates for the independent variables, with the exception of Shy Harbor Traffic, remained almost with last year’s estimates. The panel also believes the Maricopa County’s population, prime interest rate and Sky Harbor Traffic growth rates for FY 2009-2026 period will be lower than last year’s forecast. Supplementary Information The remainder of this report presents supplementary information on the RAP model, the values of the independent variables forecast by the expert panel, and detailed results of the Risk Analysis Process. September 2008 5 RARF Official Revenue Forecast With Category Detail by Fiscal Year (Current Dollars in Millions) Retail Rental Contracting Utilities Restaurant/ Real Bar Property $54.2 $30.6 $34.7 $40.9 Rental Personal Property $15.8 Other Total $22.0 $380.5 Fiscal Year 2009 $182.3 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 190.4 208.3 227.3 247.9 268.8 290.0 311.5 333.2 354.8 53.8 60.3 66.8 72.1 78.7 85.2 91.2 98.9 106.0 31.0 31.9 33.0 34.2 35.4 36.7 38.1 39.5 41.0 37.4 40.2 43.1 46.3 49.5 53.0 56.7 60.6 64.9 44.0 47.8 51.8 55.9 60.6 65.6 70.6 76.1 82.3 16.8 18.1 19.4 20.7 22.1 23.6 25.2 26.9 28.6 23.4 24.9 26.5 28.2 29.8 31.5 33.5 35.4 37.4 396.8 431.5 467.9 505.3 544.9 585.6 626.8 670.6 715.0 Total: 09-18 $2,614.5 $767.2 $351.4 $486.4 $595.6 $217.2 $292.6 $5,324.9 Note: Totals may not add due to individual rounding. September 2008 6 September 2008 RARF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year Mean 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2009 $379.5 $402.6 $393.7 $387.8 $382.7 $377.7 2010 400.1 442.2 425.9 414.3 405.0 396.8 2011 437.0 498.4 474.6 457.1 443.6 431.5 2012 475.7 555.5 524.1 501.5 483.8 467.9 2013 514.8 608.0 571.3 546.1 524.6 505.3 2014 554.9 664.0 620.2 590.0 566.0 544.9 2015 596.1 717.6 668.7 635.8 609.8 585.6 2016 638.4 772.9 719.7 682.5 653.5 626.8 2017 682.2 828.4 769.6 731.2 698.2 670.6 2018 728.1 887.2 822.1 779.7 744.7 715.0 2019 776.0 947.1 877.4 833.3 794.8 759.4 2020 826.7 1,010.5 937.5 886.7 849.8 809.9 2021 880.1 1,080.6 997.2 946.2 901.6 862.1 2022 937.0 1,145.5 1,064.8 1,006.9 960.1 918.1 2023 997.7 1,227.0 1,135.2 1,069.3 1,023.2 978.8 2024 1,062.6 1,307.9 1,207.9 1,140.2 1,086.8 1,043.7 2025 1,131.8 1,393.5 1,286.6 1,214.2 1,159.0 1,112.2 2026/1 1,206.0 1,489.0 1,375.6 1,295.6 1,234.9 1,180.5 /1 Totals reflect the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026, but the transportation excise tax expires December 31, 2025. 60% 70% 80% 90% $373.9 389.9 421.4 454.5 489.5 525.2 562.1 601.5 641.6 684.4 729.4 776.9 826.2 879.8 937.2 997.6 1,062.5 1,132.4 $369.5 382.6 410.4 440.8 472.3 505.8 540.7 577.6 617.5 657.2 699.9 744.1 793.0 841.5 896.8 956.3 1,015.0 1,081.0 $364.6 373.7 398.3 425.3 454.2 485.4 518.3 551.7 587.8 625.5 666.6 707.9 753.2 799.7 849.1 901.8 959.4 1,022.3 $359.0 363.4 382.7 406.1 431.6 459.4 489.4 520.4 553.2 586.4 623.2 660.9 703.9 747.9 791.1 841.0 893.9 948.8 7 RARF Official Revenue Forecast Revenue Distribution (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 /2 TOTALS Regional Area Road Fund (RARF) /1 Freeways Arterial Streets (56.2%) (10.5 %) $213.8 $40.0 223.0 41.7 242.5 45.3 263.0 49.1 284.0 53.1 306.2 57.2 329.1 61.5 352.3 65.8 376.9 70.4 401.8 75.1 426.8 79.7 455.2 85.0 484.5 90.5 516.0 96.4 550.1 102.8 586.6 109.6 625.1 116.8 387.0 72.3 $7,023.7 $1,312.3 Public Transportation Fund (33.3%) $126.7 132.1 143.7 155.8 168.3 181.5 195.0 208.7 223.3 238.1 252.9 269.7 287.1 305.7 325.9 347.6 370.4 229.3 $4,161.7 Total $380.5 396.8 431.5 467.9 505.3 544.9 585.6 626.8 670.6 715.0 759.4 809.9 862.1 918.1 978.8 1,043.7 1,112.2 688.6 $12,497.7 Note: 1/ The Regional Public Transportation Authority received a portion of the excise tax funds for transit cost which is adjusted annually by the GDP price deflator. Beginning July 1, 2005, this transfer from RARF is divided equally between MAG and the Public Transportation Fund for planning and administering the regional transportation plan. 2/ Reflects the end of the one-half cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025. Totals may not add due to rounding. Distribution Per Laws 2004, Chapter 2 (HB 2456), the sales tax extension will be distributed as follows: 1. 56.2 percent to the Regional Area Road (RARF) fund for freeways and other routes in the state highway systems, including capital expense and maintenance. 2. 10.5 percent to the RARF fund for major arterial streets and intersection improvements, including capital expense and implementation studies. 3. 33.3 percent to the Public Transportation Fund for: (a). Capital costs, maintenance and operation of public transportation classifications. (b). Capital costs and utility relocations costs associated with a light rail public transit system. September 2008 8 Official Forecast Results (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 /1 Total Mean Forecast $379.5 400.1 437.0 475.7 514.8 554.9 596.1 638.4 682.2 728.1 776.0 826.7 880.1 937.0 997.7 1,062.6 1,131.8 703.5 $12,722.2 Official Forecast $380.5 396.8 431.5 467.9 505.3 544.9 585.6 626.8 670.6 715.0 759.4 809.9 862.1 918.1 978.8 1,043.7 1,112.2 688.6 $12,497.7 80% Conf. Interval $364.6 373.7 398.3 425.3 454.2 485.4 518.3 551.7 587.8 625.5 666.6 707.9 753.2 799.7 849.1 901.8 959.4 596.3 $11,018.8 20% Conf. Interval $393.7 425.9 474.6 524.1 571.3 620.2 668.7 719.7 769.6 822.1 877.4 937.5 997.2 1,064.8 1,135.2 1,207.9 1,286.6 802.4 $14,299.1 Note: 1/ FY 2026 totals are adjusted to reflect the transportation excise tax extension expiration on December 31, 2025. Totals may not add due to individual rounding. $1,600 Millions of Current Dollars $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Fiscal Year Mean Fcst September 2008 Official Fcst 80% Conf. Interval 20% Conf. Interval 9 Maricopa County Real Income 4.0% 3.0% Growth Rate 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Maricopa County Population 4.0% 3.5% Growth Rate 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Fiscal Year Median September 2008 Lower 10% Upper 10% 10 Maricopa County Construction Employment 20.0% 15.0% Growth Rate 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2023 2025 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Prime Interest Rate 14.0% 12.0% Rate 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Fiscal Year Median September 2008 Lower 10% Upper 10% 11 Phoenix CPI 8.0% 7.0% Growth Rate 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% U.S. Housing Start 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% Growth Rate 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% -30.0% 2009 2011 2013 2015 Median September 2008 2017 2019 Fiscal Year Lower 10% 2021 2023 2025 Upper 10% 12 Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic 6.0% 5.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% G r o w th R a te Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Fiscal Year Median September 2008 Low er 10% Upper 10% 13 Mean Panelist Data Values FY 2009 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2010 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2011 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2012 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2013 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2016 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2021 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2026 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Real Income Growth /1 Population Growth /1 Const. Employment Growth /1 Prime Interest Phoenix Rate CPI Growth U. S. Housing Start Growth Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic Growth Total Non-Farm Employment Growth /1 0.68% -2.15% -0.90% 2.83% 1.34% 2.16% -2.03% -15.98% -8.90% 7.10% 4.07% 5.58% 4.62% 2.44% 3.47% -2.27% -19.45% -10.79% 3.48% -0.42% 1.61% 3.16% -1.10% 0.86% 2.36% -0.68% 0.87% 3.29% 1.65% 2.47% 9.28% -4.60% 2.76% 8.10% 4.53% 6.35% 4.33% 2.01% 3.06% 19.51% -1.04% 7.19% 4.10% -0.39% 2.05% 5.12% 0.36% 2.39% 3.17% 0.22% 1.68% 3.45% 1.72% 2.68% 15.47% -0.05% 8.78% 8.90% 5.10% 7.03% 4.31% 1.84% 2.90% 20.41% 4.12% 11.24% 4.47% 0.03% 2.26% 6.11% 1.68% 4.02% 2.84% 0.30% 1.67% 3.51% 1.83% 2.74% 12.86% 1.51% 7.63% 9.21% 5.33% 7.24% 4.23% 1.66% 2.73% 14.02% 1.15% 6.92% 4.65% 0.25% 2.55% 5.75% 1.42% 3.80% 3.10% 0.35% 1.72% 3.42% 1.75% 2.61% 11.28% 1.03% 6.13% 9.27% 5.36% 7.12% 4.16% 1.58% 2.67% 10.19% -3.45% 3.16% 4.60% 0.12% 2.45% 5.40% 0.90% 3.40% 3.13% 0.30% 1.67% 3.20% 1.55% 2.38% 10.05% -1.23% 4.04% 9.48% 5.22% 7.12% 4.21% 1.56% 2.62% 10.81% -6.30% 2.16% 4.74% -0.03% 2.43% 5.06% 0.50% 2.85% 3.19% 0.25% 1.71% 3.08% 1.25% 2.17% 10.26% -2.07% 3.46% 9.66% 5.18% 7.15% 4.27% 1.54% 2.68% 10.34% -7.30% 1.54% 4.84% -0.16% 2.41% 5.00% 0.21% 2.64% 3.27% 0.14% 1.65% 2.92% 1.05% 1.97% 10.53% -2.35% 3.43% 9.82% 5.10% 7.15% 4.50% 1.50% 2.64% 11.79% -8.02% 1.72% 5.00% -0.38% 2.40% 5.02% 0.18% 2.60% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates with the exception of prime rates which are nominal rates. /1 Data for Maricopa County September 2008 14 Per Capita Income Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2016 2021 2026 1.5% -3.5% -2.0% 1.5% -3.0% 0.0% 1.8% -1.0% 1.0% 1.9% -0.5% 1.2% 2.0% -0.5% 1.3% 2.1% -0.5% 1.3% 2.1% -0.5% 1.3% 2.1% -0.5% 1.3% 1.0% -1.5% 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 1.8% 3.8% 0.7% 2.4% 3.8% 0.7% 2.4% 3.4% 0.8% 2.2% 3.4% 0.8% 2.2% 3.2% 0.5% 2.0% 3.2% -0.1% 2.0% 0.5% -1.5% -1.0% 0.5% -1.0% -0.5% 2.5% 0.5% 1.5% 3.5% 1.0% 2.0% 3.5% 1.0% 2.5% 3.0% 1.0% 2.3% 2.5% 1.0% 2.0% 2.5% 1.0% 2.0% -1.0% -3.5% -2.0% 3.5% -1.0% 1.0% 4.0% -0.5% 1.5% 3.5% -0.5% 2.0% 3.5% 0.0% 2.2% 3.5% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.5% 2.1% 4.0% 0.5% 2.1% 1.5% -2.0% -1.0% 2.5% -1.5% 1.3% 2.5% -1.5% 1.5% 2.5% -1.5% 1.8% 2.5% -1.5% 1.8% 3.0% -1.5% 1.6% 3.5% -1.5% 1.6% 4.0% -1.5% 1.6% 0.5% -2.0% -0.5% 0.8% -1.7% -0.2% 1.0% -1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.5% 1.5% 3.5% 1.0% 2.0% 3.3% 0.8% 1.8% 3.1% 0.6% 1.6% 1.8% -1.0% 1.0% 3.1% -0.5% 1.8% 3.8% 0.5% 2.0% 3.5% 0.4% 1.8% 3.5% 0.2% 1.8% 3.6% -0.3% 1.7% 3.9% -1.0% 1.2% 4.4% -1.5% 1.2% 0.0% -2.0% -1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.8% 0.8% 1.8% 2.7% 0.7% 1.7% 2.6% 0.6% 1.6% 2.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5% -2.0% -0.7% 3.5% 0.5% 1.5% 3.5% 0.5% 1.0% 3.5% 0.5% 1.0% 3.5% 0.5% 1.0% 3.5% 0.5% 1.0% 4.0% 0.5% 1.5% 4.0% 0.5% 1.5% 1.0% -2.0% -1.5% 1.2% -1.8% -1.3% 1.8% -0.7% -0.2% 1.8% -0.7% -0.2% 2.5% -0.5% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.5% 2.5% 0.5% 1.0% 2.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% -2.5% -1.0% 3.5% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 1.5% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.0% 1.0% 2.5% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.6% -2.0% -0.7% 2.8% 0.2% 1.5% 4.5% 1.9% 3.2% 3.1% 0.5% 1.8% 3.0% 0.4% 1.7% 3.2% 0.0% 1.6% 3.8% 0.2% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 3.0% 2.2% 1.7% 1.5% percentage growth rates. 3.2% 0.8% 1.7% 3.2% 0.8% 1.7% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 0.0% 2.5% Lower 10% -2.5% 0.0% Median -1.3% 1.5% All data in the above table are in September 2008 15 Maricopa County Population Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2016 2021 2026 2.5% 0.5% 1.8% 2.8% 0.6% 1.9% 3.0% 0.8% 2.5% 3.5% 1.0% 2.5% 3.5% 1.0% 2.5% 3.2% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.8% 1.8% 2.8% 0.8% 1.8% 3.0% 1.9% 2.7% 3.5% 2.1% 2.8% 3.4% 2.0% 2.9% 3.3% 1.9% 2.9% 3.2% 1.8% 2.5% 3.0% 1.5% 2.2% 2.9% 1.0% 1.9% 2.6% 0.8% 1.6% 1.8% 1.0% 1.5% 2.8% 1.5% 2.0% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 1.5% 2.8% 3.4% 1.5% 2.5% 3.0% 1.3% 2.3% 2.8% 1.2% 2.1% 2.6% 1.0% 2.0% 2.8% 1.2% 1.9% 3.3% 1.3% 2.3% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 4.2% 2.5% 3.5% 4.1% 2.4% 3.3% 4.0% 2.1% 3.0% 3.5% 1.2% 2.7% 3.2% 1.0% 2.5% 2.9% 1.0% 2.5% 3.3% 1.3% 2.1% 3.3% 1.3% 2.2% 3.3% 1.3% 2.2% 3.3% 1.3% 2.2% 3.3% 1.3% 2.2% 3.3% 1.3% 2.2% 3.3% 1.3% 2.2% 3.4% 1.4% 2.4% 3.6% 1.6% 2.6% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.2% 1.8% 2.5% 3.2% 1.8% 2.5% 2.2% 1.5% 2.2% 3.0% 1.3% 2.0% 2.5% 0.8% 1.5% 3.4% 1.8% 2.5% 3.7% 1.9% 2.9% 3.5% 1.8% 2.6% 3.6% 1.7% 2.4% 3.7% 1.7% 2.4% 3.9% 1.4% 2.4% 3.8% 1.0% 2.2% 3.8% 0.9% 2.1% 2.5% 0.5% 1.5% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.2% 1.2% 2.2% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.9% 0.9% 1.9% 2.6% 0.6% 1.6% 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.5% 2.5% 3.3% 4.0% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 3.0% 3.5% 3.5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.2% 1.2% 2.2% 3.2% 1.2% 2.2% 3.2% 1.0% 2.0% 3.2% 1.0% 2.0% 3.2% 1.0% 2.0% 3.2% 1.0% 2.0% 3.2% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.5% 2.5% 3.0% 4.0% 2.5% 3.5% 4.0% 2.5% 3.5% 3.5% 2.0% 3.0% 3.2% 2.0% 2.7% 3.0% 1.5% 2.5% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.2% 1.6% 2.4% 3.6% 2.0% 2.8% 3.4% 1.8% 2.6% 3.3% 1.7% 2.5% 3.2% 1.6% 2.4% 3.1% 1.3% 2.2% 2.8% 1.0% 1.9% 2.6% 0.6% 1.6% 2.8% 2.0% 2.4% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.4% 2.9% 3.0% 2.4% 2.9% 3.0% 2.2% 2.7% 2.8% 2.0% 2.5% 2.7% 1.8% 2.2% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. September 2008 16 Maricopa County Construction Employment Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2016 2021 2026 -3.0% -15.0% -10.0% 2.0% -10.0% -3.0% 5.0% -5.0% 1.0% 8.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 2.0% 6.0% 10.0% 1.0% 4.0% 12.0% 1.0% 3.0% 14.0% 1.0% 3.0% -6.0% -16.0% -10.0% 8.0% -8.0% -4.0% 12.0% 2.0% 8.0% 10.0% 2.0% 7.0% 15.0% 2.5% 10.0% 10.0% -2.0% 4.0% 10.5% -2.0% 4.0% 11.6% -2.0% 4.0% 0.0% -15.0% -7.5% 10.0% -10.0% 0.0% 15.0% -5.0% 5.0% 15.0% 5.0% 10.0% 12.0% 5.0% 7.5% 8.0% 4.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% -2.0% -15.0% -8.0% 13.0% -8.0% 5.0% 20.0% -5.0% 10.0% 16.0% 0.0% 10.0% 12.0% -5.0% 6.0% 15.0% -8.0% 4.0% 15.0% -8.0% 3.5% 15.0% -8.0% 3.5% 5.0% -20.0% -7.3% 12.8% -5.0% 6.1% 19.0% -5.0% 12.3% 15.7% -5.0% 9.0% 12.7% 0.0% 6.0% 11.8% -5.0% 4.0% 13.8% -5.0% 3.5% 14.0% -7.0% 3.5% -5.0% -15.0% -10.0% 5.0% -5.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% 5.0% 14.0% 6.0% 10.0% 12.0% 4.0% 8.0% 9.0% 1.0% 5.0% 8.5% -3.5% 2.5% 8.2% -3.7% 2.2% 0.4% -12.5% -5.5% 11.0% -1.0% 5.0% 16.0% -2.0% 5.0% 17.0% -2.2% 5.5% 18.0% -2.5% 6.0% 18.0% -5.0% 3.5% 18.0% -6.0% 3.5% 18.0% -7.0% 3.5% -7.0% -13.0% -10.0% 8.0% 2.0% 5.0% 11.0% 5.0% 8.0% 11.0% 5.0% 8.0% 8.0% 2.0% 5.0% 7.0% 1.0% 4.0% 6.5% 0.5% 3.5% 6.5% 0.5% 3.5% 0.0% -15.0% -5.0% 15.0% -0.5% 10.0% 20.0% 5.0% 15.0% 10.0% 2.0% 5.0% 10.0% 2.0% 5.0% 7.0% 2.0% 4.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% -15.0% -10.0% 5.0% -5.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 5.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 2.0% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 3.5% -1.8% -15.2% -8.5% 13.7% 0.3% 7.0% 17.7% 4.3% 11.0% 14.7% 1.3% 8.0% 11.7% -1.7% 5.0% 10.8% -4.8% 3.0% 13.8% -6.8% 3.5% 14.0% -7.0% 3.5% -5.0% -25.0% -15.0% 8.0% -5.0% 2.0% 30.0% 5.0% 15.0% 13.0% 4.0% 9.0% 9.0% 1.0% 5.0% 9.0% -2.0% 3.0% 9.0% -2.0% 3.0% 9.0% -2.0% 3.0% N/A All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. N/A means not available September 2008 17 Prime Interest Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2009 2010 2011 2012 8.0% 4.5% 6.0% 9.0% 4.5% 7.0% 9.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 10.0% 10.5% 11.0% 11.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 7.3% 2.9% 5.1% 8.3% 4.0% 6.1% 9.6% 5.3% 7.4% 10.0% 10.0% 10.3% 10.5% 10.7% 5.3% 5.2% 4.9% 4.7% 4.5% 7.9% 7.9% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 6.5% 4.8% 5.5% 7.0% 5.3% 6.0% 7.5% 5.3% 6.0% 7.5% 5.0% 5.8% 9.0% 4.5% 6.7% 9.5% 5.0% 7.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.6% 5.5% 5.0% 5.0% 4.8% 7.2% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.3% 2.9% 6.5% 8.3% 3.9% 6.0% 9.6% 5.2% 6.5% 10.0% 10.0% 10.3% 10.5% 10.7% 5.6% 5.6% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 7.5% 3.5% 5.5% 8.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.2% 4.2% 6.2% 8.3% 4.3% 6.3% 8.4% 4.4% 6.4% 8.3% 4.0% 6.0% 9.0% 4.5% 6.5% 9.3% 4.3% 6.5% 9.5% 4.0% 6.5% 9.8% 4.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 7.0% 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% 6.0% 7.0% 9.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 7.0% 8.0% 6.5% 4.5% 5.5% 8.0% 5.0% 6.5% 8.5% 5.5% 7.0% 8.5% 5.5% 7.5% 8.5% 5.5% 7.5% 9.0% 5.5% 7.5% 9.0% 5.5% 7.5% 9.0% 5.5% 7.5% 7.2% 5.0% 5.7% 9.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 5.0% 8.5% 9.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 5.0% 5.5% 9.0% 5.0% 5.5% 9.0% 5.0% 5.5% 9.0% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 5.0% 5.5% 6.5% 5.0% 6.0% 7.5% 5.5% 7.0% 8.0% 6.0% 7.5% 8.5% 6.0% 7.5% 8.5% 6.0% 7.5% 8.5% 6.0% 7.5% 8.5% 6.0% 7.5% 7.2% 2.8% 5.0% 8.2% 3.8% 6.0% 9.5% 5.1% 7.3% 9.9% 5.5% 7.7% 9.9% 5.5% 7.7% 7.0% 4.0% 5.5% 8.0% 4.5% 6.8% 7.5% 5.5% 6.5% 2013 7.5% 6.0% 6.5% 2016 7.5% 6.0% 6.5% 9.0% 4.0% 6.5% 2021 7.5% 6.0% 6.5% 9.5% 4.5% 7.0% 2026 7.5% 6.0% 6.5% 9.5% 4.5% 7.0% 10.0% 10.5% 11.5% 4.0% 3.8% 3.5% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 10.2% 10.5% 10.7% 5.2% 4.9% 4.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% All data in the above table are in nominal rates. September 2008 18 U. S. Housing Start Growth Rate 2009 Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2010 2011 0.0% 25.0% 25.0% -25.0% -10.0% -5.0% -10.0% 5.0% 10.0% -2.1% 15.4% -17.9% -0.4% -10.0% 2.0% 25.0% 0.0% 10.0% 2013 2016 2021 2026 15.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% -5.0% -10.0% -10.0% -10.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 8.0% 0.0% 4.5% 7.0% -5.5% -0.9% 8.3% -7.0% 2.5% 7.9% -7.5% 3.0% 10.5% -8.5% 3.3% 0.0% 10.0% 15.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% -15.0% 0.0% 10.0% 17.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 3.0% 5.0% 8.0% 3.0% 4.0% 7.0% 2.0% 3.0% -8.0% 35.0% -22.0% 10.0% -15.0% 20.0% 30.0% 5.0% 20.0% 15.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% -5.0% -20.0% -20.0% -20.0% -20.0% 10.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 5.0% 36.2% -23.4% 10.0% -10.0% 15.0% 34.8% 16.6% 20.0% 18.7% 0.5% 10.0% 10.4% 12.6% 12.9% 16.8% -7.8% -10.8% -16.3% -15.2% 1.3% 0.9% -1.7% 0.8% 0.0% 20.0% 20.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% -10.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 5.0% 8.0% -2.0% 3.0% -3.0% 21.0% -20.0% -1.0% -6.8% 7.5% 25.0% 1.5% 9.5% 17.0% 1.6% 4.0% 12.0% 14.0% 12.0% 18.0% -0.5% -10.0% -12.0% -15.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% -10.0% 10.0% -20.0% 0.0% -15.0% 5.0% 15.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 5.0% 6.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% -10.0% -2.0% 10.0% 2.0% 4.0% 7.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% 0.5% 2.5% 4.0% 0.5% 2.0% 4.0% 0.5% 2.0% 0.0% 10.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% 10.0% 0.0% 1.1% 15.0% 5.0% 6.5% 10.0% 0.0% 2.2% 10.0% 0.0% 2.2% 10.0% 0.0% 2.2% 10.0% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 15.0% -15.0% 0.0% -10.0% 10.0% 12.0% 7.5% 10.0% 7.5% 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% -6.4% 29.1% -24.6% 10.9% -15.5% 20.0% 29.1% 10.9% 20.0% 17.1% -1.1% 8.0% 11.1% 12.7% 15.6% 17.0% -7.1% -10.7% -13.6% -15.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% -5.0% 20.0% -25.0% -5.0% -15.0% 5.0% 30.0% 10.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% -5.0% -10.0% -10.0% -10.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 7.0% 0.0% 3.0% 9.5% 0.0% 1.5% 2012 11.0% 10.0% 16.0% -9.0% -10.0% -14.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. September 2008 19 Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2016 2021 2026 3.5% -1.0% 1.8% 4.0% -2.0% 1.9% 4.0% -2.0% 2.5% 4.0% -2.0% 2.5% 4.0% -2.0% 2.5% 4.0% -2.0% 2.0% 4.0% -2.0% 1.8% 4.0% -2.0% 1.8% 2.4% -0.4% 2.0% 2.6% -0.4% 2.2% 3.2% -0.4% 2.4% 3.9% -0.4% 2.6% 4.0% -0.4% 2.8% 4.3% -0.9% 3.0% 4.6% -1.5% 3.0% 4.0% -2.0% 3.0% 2.0% -2.5% 0.0% 4.0% -2.5% 2.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 0.0% 1.5% 4.5% -0.5% 1.8% 4.5% -0.5% 2.0% 5.0% -0.8% 2.2% 6.0% -1.0% 2.5% 6.0% -1.0% 2.5% 6.0% -1.0% 2.5% 6.0% -1.5% 2.3% 4.5% -0.5% 2.0% 4.5% -0.5% 2.0% 4.5% -0.5% 2.0% 4.9% -0.1% 2.4% 4.9% -0.1% 2.4% 5.0% -0.2% 2.4% 5.4% -0.6% 2.4% 5.9% -1.1% 2.4% 3.9% -0.1% 1.9% 3.9% -0.1% 1.9% 4.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.1% 0.1% 2.1% 4.2% 0.2% 2.2% 4.3% 0.3% 2.3% 5.5% 1.4% 2.6% 6.5% 1.6% 3.1% 6.8% 1.5% 3.5% 7.2% 1.0% 3.6% 7.5% 0.6% 3.4% 8.0% 0.0% 3.3% 8.1% -0.3% 3.2% 9.0% -1.0% 3.2% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% -1.0% 2.0% 3.5% -0.5% 2.0% 4.5% 0.0% 2.0% 4.5% 0.0% 2.5% 4.5% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% -0.5% 2.5% 5.0% -0.5% 2.5% 5.5% -0.5% 2.5% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.5% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 1.5% 2.5% 4.0% 1.5% 2.5% 4.0% 1.5% 2.5% 4.0% 1.5% 2.5% 4.0% 1.5% 2.5% 4.0% -1.0% 1.5% 4.2% -0.8% 1.7% 4.2% -0.8% 1.7% 4.8% -0.2% 2.3% 4.8% -0.2% 2.3% 4.9% -0.3% 2.3% 5.3% -0.7% 2.3% 5.8% -1.2% 2.3% 5.0% -1.0% 1.0% 5.0% -1.0% 2.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.5% 0.0% 2.0% 5.5% 0.0% 2.0% 5.5% 0.0% 2.0% 5.5% 0.0% 2.0% 5.5% 0.0% 2.0% N/A All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. N/A means available September 2008 20 Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2016 2021 2026 4.0% -1.0% 1.2% 7.0% 0.0% 2.5% 9.0% 2.0% 4.0% 8.0% 2.0% 5.5% 6.0% 1.5% 5.0% 5.5% 0.5% 2.5% 5.0% 0.5% 2.5% 5.0% 0.5% 2.5% 4.4% -1.0% 1.5% 5.1% 0.8% 2.8% 5.4% 0.2% 3.1% 5.1% 0.1% 2.6% 5.0% 0.0% 2.5% 5.3% -0.1% 2.6% 5.5% -0.3% 2.6% 5.5% -0.3% 2.6% 3.0% -1.0% 0.5% 4.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 2.0% 4.0% 5.0% 2.0% 4.0% 5.0% 2.0% 3.5% 5.0% 2.5% 3.8% 4.0% 2.0% 2.7% 4.0% 2.0% 2.7% 1.0% -2.8% -1.2% 4.4% -1.0% 1.2% 6.2% 0.2% 3.2% 6.5% 1.8% 4.8% 6.6% 1.1% 4.5% 5.5% 0.0% 3.5% 5.5% -0.5% 3.0% 5.0% -0.5% 2.8% 4.7% -1.1% 1.8% 5.0% 1.6% 3.5% 5.5% 2.1% 3.5% 5.5% 0.6% 3.5% 5.5% 0.2% 3.0% 5.5% -0.1% 2.5% 5.5% -0.3% 2.5% 5.5% -0.4% 2.5% 4.5% -1.5% 1.5% 5.5% -0.5% 2.5% 7.5% 2.0% 5.0% 6.5% 2.0% 4.0% 5.5% 0.0% 3.5% 5.0% -0.5% 3.0% 4.5% -1.0% 2.5% 4.5% -1.0% 2.5% 4.9% 1.0% 3.5% 6.0% 0.8% 3.0% 6.2% 0.7% 3.3% 6.5% 0.5% 3.3% 6.8% 0.2% 3.2% 7.0% -0.2% 3.0% 7.3% -0.4% 2.8% 8.0% -0.6% 2.5% 2.5% -0.5% 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.5% 5.0% 2.0% 3.5% 5.5% 2.5% 4.0% 4.5% 1.5% 3.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.5% 4.0% 1.0% 2.5% 4.0% 1.0% 2.5% 2.0% -1.5% -0.8% 5.0% -1.0% 0.5% 7.0% 2.0% 5.0% 7.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.0% 2.5% 5.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 0.0% 2.5% 2.8% -1.0% 0.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.8% 3.0% 0.0% 1.6% 3.0% 0.0% 1.9% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 3.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.5% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.3% -1.5% 1.4% 6.7% 0.9% 3.8% 7.4% 1.6% 4.5% 6.2% 0.4% 3.3% 5.3% 0.7% 3.0% 5.0% 0.4% 2.7% 5.7% -0.3% 2.7% 5.8% -0.4% 2.7% 1.0% -2.5% -1.0% 6.0% 1.0% 3.0% 7.2% 4.0% 6.5% 6.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 0.0% 3.0% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. September 2008 21 Phoenix CPI Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2016 2021 2026 6.5% 2.8% 4.5% 6.3% 2.8% 4.3% 6.2% 2.8% 4.2% 6.4% 2.6% 4.0% 6.5% 2.6% 4.0% 7.0% 2.5% 4.0% 7.5% 2.5% 5.0% 8.0% 2.5% 5.0% 4.2% 2.2% 3.3% 3.2% 1.3% 2.6% 3.2% 1.1% 2.3% 3.2% 1.1% 2.3% 3.3% 1.1% 2.3% 3.3% 1.1% 2.1% 3.4% 0.9% 2.1% 3.5% 1.0% 2.2% 5.0% 2.5% 4.0% 5.5% 3.0% 4.0% 5.5% 3.0% 3.9% 5.0% 2.8% 3.8% 4.5% 2.7% 3.8% 4.0% 2.5% 3.5% 3.5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 2.5% 3.0% 5.2% 2.8% 3.8% 5.0% 1.8% 2.5% 5.0% 1.5% 2.3% 5.2% 1.3% 2.2% 5.2% 1.2% 2.1% 5.2% 1.2% 2.1% 5.4% 1.2% 2.1% 5.4% 1.2% 2.1% 6.0% 2.1% 3.5% 5.5% 0.8% 2.8% 5.5% 0.8% 2.6% 5.5% 1.0% 2.6% 5.5% 1.0% 2.6% 5.5% 1.0% 2.6% 5.5% 0.9% 2.6% 5.5% 0.8% 2.6% 4.3% 2.3% 3.3% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.2% 1.2% 2.2% 3.0% 1.5% 2.5% 3.9% 1.6% 2.6% 3.3% 1.8% 2.8% 3.2% 1.6% 2.5% 3.9% 1.9% 2.5% 3.3% 1.0% 2.3% 3.9% 1.0% 2.2% 3.8% 1.0% 2.2% 3.8% 0.8% 2.2% 4.5% 0.7% 2.2% 5.5% 0.6% 2.2% 8.0% 0.5% 2.0% 4.6% 1.6% 3.1% 4.5% 1.5% 3.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.5% 3.5% 0.5% 2.0% 3.5% 0.5% 2.0% 3.5% 0.5% 2.0% 3.5% 0.5% 2.0% 3.5% 0.5% 2.0% 3.0% 2.2% 2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.5% 2.0% 3.0% 4.5% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.6% 2.6% 3.1% 4.0% 3.0% 3.5% 4.2% 3.2% 3.7% 4.2% 3.2% 3.7% 4.2% 3.2% 3.7% 4.2% 3.2% 3.4% 4.2% 3.2% 3.4% 4.2% 3.2% 3.4% 5.0% 3.5% 4.5% 4.5% 3.5% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 1.5% 2.0% 3.0% 1.5% 2.0% 3.0% 1.5% 2.0% 3.0% 1.5% 2.0% 4.2% 2.2% 3.2% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.2% 1.0% 2.1% 3.3% 0.9% 2.1% 3.2% 0.8% 2.0% 4.6% 3.0% 3.8% 4.0% 2.0% 2.8% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. September 2008 22 HISTORICAL DATA GROWTH IN REAL INCOME PER CAPITA Using Phoenix CPI to Measure Inflation (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 3.0% 1.0% -4.6% -3.0% 1.6% 4.2% 3.0% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -0.6% -1.2% -2.5% 0.0% 4.7% 3.1% 2.0% 1.1% 1.3% 0.4% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 0.1% -3.3% -1.9% -0.6% -0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 1.5% 1.1% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009 2.3% 1.5% -0.9% -0.5% 1.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% -0.1% *Estimate 0.0% 0 -0.02 -2.0% -0.02 -0.04 -4.0% -0.04 -0.06 -6.0% -0.06 2008 0 2006 2004 2002 2003 2007 2006 2005 2.0% 0.02 1976 1972 1974 1975 1973 1973 1974 1978 1975 1976 1974 1975 1977 1976 0.02 2004 2001 2000 2002 2004 2003 2005 4.0% 0.04 2002 1999 1998 2000 2002 2001 2003 0.04 1980 1977 1978 1977 1976 1978 1979 1979 1982 1980 1979 1978 1980 1981 1981 1981 1984 1982 1981 1980 1982 1983 1983 1983 1984 1986 1983 1982 1984 1985 1985 1986 1985 1988 1984 1986 1987 1987 1987 1988 1987 1990 1986 1989 1988 1990 1989 1992 1991 1988 1990 1992 1991 1991 1994 1993 1990 1992 1994 1993 1993 1995 1996 1992 1994 1996 1995 1997 1995 1998 1994 1996 1998 1997 1999 1997 2000 1996 1998 2000 1999 2001 6.0% 0.06 Percent Change 0.06 1974 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Year Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2008 Historical Min. Max. Mean -0.1% 1.9% 1.3% -0.9% 2.3% 1.0% -4.6% 4.7% 0.6% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 0.9% 0.4% 1.9% 1.1% -0.5% 1.9% 2.0% -2.2% 3.0% 23 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 5.9% 6.4% 5.2% 3.0% 2.1% 3.9% 4.4% 4.9% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 4.4% 3.0% 2.9% 3.2% 4.4% 5.3% 4.2% 4.5% 2.9% 2.6% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1.4% 3.1% 3.4% 3.8% 4.9% 5.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009 3.1% 3.3% 3.1% 2.8% 3.3% 4.1% 3.6% 2.7% 2.5% FY 2007 and prior from U. S. Census Bureau. * FY 2008 to 2009 based on Phoenix Blue Chip Forecast, 2nd Qtr 2008. FY 2010-2026 based on Department of Commerce Population Projections 2006-2055 growth rates dated March 31, 2006. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 0.07 7.0% 0.07 Percent Change 0.06 6.0% 0.06 5.0% 0.05 0.05 4.0% 0.04 0.04 3.0% 0.03 0.03 2.0% 0.02 0.02 1.0% 0.01 0.01 2008 2007 2005 2006 2003 2006 2005 2004 2001 2004 2003 2002 1999 2002 2001 2000 1997 2000 1999 1998 1995 1998 1997 1996 1993 1996 1995 1994 1988 1986 1987 1987 1990 1988 1989 1989 1992 1991 1990 1991 1994 1993 1992 1986 1984 1985 1985 1984 1982 1983 1983 1982 1980 1981 1981 1980 1978 1979 1979 1978 1976 1977 1976 1974 1975 1974 1973 1972 1973 1971 1972 1970 1971 0.0% 00 Fiscal Fiscal Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2008 Historical Min. Max. Mean 2.5% 4.1% 3.2% 2.5% 4.1% 3.2% 1.4% 6.4% 3.7% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 0.6% 2.6% 3.9% 0.5% 2.7% 3.7% 1.1% 2.7% 5.1% 24 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY GROWTH IN CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 18.9% 16.1% 0.2% -16.4% -12.4% 13.7% 34.0% 29.7% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 5.5% -4.9% -4.5% 6.1% 22.3% 20.0% 8.8% -4.0% -7.3% -7.0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 -7.1% -5.6% -1.4% 7.0% 14.5% 15.4% 9.6% 6.0% 8.1% 9.3% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009 5.8% 5.7% 2.8% 1.1% 5.9% 11.3% 11.6% -5.7% -15.9% FY 2006 and prior from Bureau of Economic Analysis. * FY 2007 to 2009 based on Phoenix Blue Chip forecast, 2nd Qtr 2008. FY 2010 and after ADOT staff estimates. 2003 2004 2005 2002 2007 2008 2006 70.0% 0.7 0.4 40.0% 60.0% 0.6 0.3 30.0% 50.0% 0.5 0.4 40.0% 20.0% 0.2 0.3 30.0% 0.2 20.0% 10.0% 0.1 0.1 10.0% 0.0% 0 0 0.0% -0.1 -10.0% -10.0% -0.1 -0.2 -20.0% -0.3 -20.0% -30.0% -0.2 1973 1962 1963 1972 1962 1973 1964 1965 1974 1975 1964 1975 1967 1966 1976 1976 1977 1966 1977 1969 1968 1978 1968 1978 1979 1970 1971 1979 1970 1980 1980 1973 1981 1972 1981 1972 1982 1982 1975 1974 1974 1983 1983 1984 1977 1976 1984 1976 1985 1986 1979 1978 1986 1987 1988 1980 1981 1988 1989 1982 1983 1989 1982 1990 1990 1984 1991 1985 1984 1992 1991 1986 1992 1987 1986 1993 1994 1993 1988 1994 1989 1988 1995 1996 1990 1995 1991 1990 1996 1997 1998 1992 1993 1997 1992 1998 1994 1999 2000 1995 1994 1999 1996 2000 2001 2002 1997 1996 1998 2001 2002 2003 2004 1999 1998 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2001 2000 2002 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal FiscalYear Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2008 Historical Min. Max. Mean -15.9% 11.6% 1.4% -15.9% 11.6% 3.2% -16.4% 34.0% 5.3% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 12.0% -11.8% 11.5% 8.4% -6.8% 11.3% 11.7% -7.2% 19.3% 25 HISTORICAL DATA PRIME INTEREST RATE HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 4.5% 4.5% 5.1% 5.6% 6.0% 7.1% 7.9% 6.8% 5.5% 6.6% 9.4% 9.3% 7.4% 6.8% 7.9% 10.9% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 14.0% 17.1% 16.9% 12.8% 11.4% 11.0% 9.1% 8.3% 8.8% 10.1% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 10.4% 9.2% 7.4% 6.1% 6.6% 8.0% 8.6% 8.4% 8.4% 8.2% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009 8.6% 8.1% 5.8% 4.4% 4.2% 5.3% 7.1% 8.0% 6.6% FY 2007 and prior from Federal Reserve. FY 2008 and after based on Global Insight, May 2008, Trend Forecast. 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1964 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2008 Historical Min. Max. 4.2% 8.0% 4.2% 8.6% 4.2% 17.1% Mean 6.2% 6.6% 8.2% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 1.5% 4.6% 7.6% 1.6% 4.4% 8.2% 2.9% 5.2% 11.2% 26 HISTORICAL DATA PHOENIX CPI GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 6.1% 1982 5.6% 1983 7.6% 1984 11.7% 1985 11.1% 1986 7.7% 1987 7.7% 1988 10.7% 1989 13.7% 13.6% 10.0% 5.5% 3.5% 4.6% 4.2% 2.9% 3.4% 4.3% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 4.9% 4.7% 3.4% 3.1% 3.6% 4.0% 4.6% 4.9% 4.4% 3.9% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009 3.4% 2.4% 1.8% 1.7% 2.4% 3.3% 3.6% 3.3% 3.6% * Estimate 2007 2005 2008 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006 2001 2002 2003 2004 0.16 16.0% 0.14 14.0% 0.12 12.0% 10.0% 0.1 0.08 8.0% 0.06 6.0% 0.04 4.0% 0.02 2.0% 0.0% 0 1972 1973 1973 1974 1975 1975 1976 1976 1977 1977 1978 1978 1979 1979 1980 1980 1981 1981 1982 1982 1983 1984 1984 1985 1986 1986 1987 1987 1988 1988 1989 1989 1990 1990 1991 1992 1991 1992 1993 1994 1993 1994 1995 1996 1995 1996 1997 1998 1997 1998 1999 2000 1999 2000 2001 2002 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal FiscalYear Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2008 Historical Min. Max. Mean 2.4% 3.6% 3.2% 1.7% 3.9% 2.9% 1.7% 13.7% 5.4% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 0.5% 2.7% 3.6% 0.8% 1.8% 3.6% 3.2% 2.7% 10.8% 27 HISTORICAL DATA US HOUSING START GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1.1% 1.6% -3.4% -9.3% -7.9% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 -10.3% -14.1% 0.3% 12.4% 10.3% 2.4% 0.7% 4.2% 4.7% 5.4% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009 -1.5% -1.2% 4.3% 7.4% 7.1% 5.8% -3.8% -18.4% -28.9% FY 2007 and prior from U.S. Bureau of Census. * FY 2008 estimate and after based on Global Insight, May 2008, Trend Forecast. 2006 2004 2005 2008 2007 15.0% 0.15 0.16 0.1 0.14 0.1 10.0% 0.05 0.12 5.0% 0.05 0 0.1 -0.05 0.0% 0 -0.1 0.08 -5.0% -0.05 -0.15 0.06 -0.2 -10.0% -0.1 0.04 -0.25 -15.0% -0.15 0.02 -0.3 -20.0% -0.35 -0.2 0 1972 1985 1986 1985 1986 1974 1986 1988 1987 1987 1976 1988 1988 1988 1978 1990 1989 1989 1990 1980 1990 1992 1991 1991 1991 1982 1992 1992 1994 1984 1993 1993 1994 1986 1994 1996 1995 1995 1988 1995 1996 1996 1998 1996 1997 1990 1997 1997 1998 1998 1992 2000 1999 1998 1999 1994 2000 1999 2000 2002 2001 1996 2000 2001 2002 2001 2002 1998 2004 2003 2002 2003 2004 2000 2003 2004 2006 2005 2002 2004 2005 2006 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Fiscal FiscalYear Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2008 Historical Min. Max. Mean -28.9% 7.1% -7.7% -28.9% 7.4% -2.4% -28.9% 12.4% -1.3% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 15.6% -24.7% 6.6% 12.1% -19.5% 7.1% 9.6% -13.0% 7.3% 28 HISTORICAL DATA SKY HARBOR PASSENGER TRAFFIC GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 3.6% 8.4% 12.2% 8.4% 2.4% 5.7% 12.2% 16.1% 18.7% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 5.0% -2.8% 6.8% 13.9% 20.6% 24.8% 19.6% 14.8% 10.9% 8.1% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 6.4% 3.4% 0.9% 3.3% 7.7% 8.6% 8.9% 4.8% 2.2% 4.6% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009 6.5% 2.7% -0.7% 2.8% 5.4% 4.9% 2.4% 2.0% 2.0% * Historical data FY 2007 and prior obtained from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport and Phx-Mesa GatewayAirport. FY 2008 and after staff estimates. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Percent Percent Change Change 0.3 0.16 30.0% 0.3 0.3 0.16 0.25 0.14 0.14 25.0% 0.25 0.25 0.12 0.12 0.2 20.0% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.15 15.0% 0.15 0.15 0.08 0.08 10.0% 0.1 0.1 0.06 0.06 5.0% 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0 0.0% 0.02 0.02 2008 2006 2004 2006 2007 2005 2004 2002 2004 2003 2005 2002 2000 2002 2001 2000 2003 1979 1980 1980 1980 1981 1982 1982 1982 1983 1983 1984 1984 1984 1985 1985 1986 1986 1986 1987 1987 1988 1988 1988 1989 1989 1990 1990 1991 1990 1991 1992 1993 1992 1992 1993 1994 1995 1994 1994 1995 1996 1997 1996 1996 1998 1997 1999 1998 1998 2000 1999 2001 1977 1978 1978 1976 1975 1975 1976 1972 1971 1972 1971 1974 1973 1974 1973 -5.0% -0.05 00 -0.05 Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Year Year Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2008 Historical Min. Max. Mean 1.2% 5.4% 3.2% -0.7% 6.5% 3.2% -2.8% 24.8% 7.6% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 1.9% 1.4% 5.2% 2.2% 1.0% 5.5% 6.3% 1.6% 16.9% 29 HISTORICAL DATA - MARICOPA COUNTY TOTAL NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 5.5% 5.5% 4.9% 6.8% 5.8% 5.1% 8.6% 7.8% 5.9% 8.5% 11.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.5% 6.9% 11.1% 11.8% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 6.9% 3.4% 1.5% 2.9% 8.6% 10.2% 6.9% 4.1% 4.7% 4.1% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 3.0% 5.8% 6.9% 7.2% 6.3% 5.4% 5.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009 4.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.7% 2.7% 5.1% 6.1% 3.3% 1.2% FY 2007 and prior from Bureau of Labor Statistics. FY 2008 and after ADOT staff estimates. 0.16 14.0%0.14 0.14 12.0%0.12 0.12 10.0% 0.1 0.18.0%0.08 0.086.0%0.06 0.064.0%0.04 0.042.0%0.02 0.020.0% 0 0-2.0% -0.02 1992 1993 1994 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1998 2000 2001 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2002 2006 2007 2008 2004 1982 1983 1988 1984 1985 1986 1987 1990 1988 1989 1992 1990 1991 1976 1977 1984 1978 1979 1980 1981 1986 1970 1971 1980 1972 1973 1974 1975 1982 1963 1974 1964 1965 1976 1966 1967 1968 1969 1978 1972 Percent Change Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Year Fiscal Fiscal Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2008 Historical Min. Max. 1.2% 6.1% 0.6% 6.1% 0.0% 11.8% Mean 3.7% 3.1% 5.1% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 1.9% 1.8% 5.7% 1.9% 0.7% 5.2% 3.0% 0.8% 8.6% 30