Arizona Department of Transportation MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX Forecasting Process & Results FY 2008-2026 Financial Management Services September 2007 MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES Introduction In 1985, the voters of Maricopa County approved Proposition 300 to establish a onehalf cent transportation excise (sales) tax for construction of a regional freeway system within the county. The half cent sales tax was approved for a period of 20 years and ended on December 31, 2005. On November 2, 2004, Maricopa County’s voters approved Proposition 400 which extended the one-half cent sales tax for another 20 years through December 31, 2025. The sales tax extension will be used for construction of new freeways, widening of existing freeways and highways, improvements to the arterial street system, regional bus service and other special transportation services, and high capacity transit services such as light rail, bus rapid transit and express buses. This document contains the official forecast of expected values for the Maricopa County Transportation Excise Tax for the period FY 2007-2026 developed by the Arizona Department of Transportation in cooperation with the Maricopa Association of Governments, Valley Metro and Valley Metro Rail. Background Since 1986, the Arizona Department of Transportation (the Department) has used a comprehensive regression-based econometric model to estimate Transportation Excise Tax revenues for Maricopa County. These revenues, which flow into the Regional Area Road Fund (RARF), are the major funding source for the Maricopa County Freeway Program. The revenue forecast is highly dependent on estimates of independent variables. In order to deal with variability between estimated and actual values, the Department introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies on probability analysis and the independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. The process results in a series of forecasts, with specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate. Enhanced forecasting accuracy was achieved in July 1996, when Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB) working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State University, incorporated economic data and independent variables which were not included in the 1986 model. September 2007 1 In September 2005, the Department had HDR/HLB re-examine the structure of the RARF modal and re-evaluate the set of explanatory variables used in the production of the RARF revenue forecasts. Three new variables (U. S. Housing Starts, Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic and Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment Growth) were added to the existing list of variables used in the RARF regression equations. The independent variables contained in the updated model are: • • • • • • • • Maricopa County real income growth per capita Maricopa County population growth Maricopa County construction employment growth U. S. housing start growth Sky Harbor passenger traffic growth Maricopa County total non-farm employment growth Phoenix Consumer Price Index (CPI) Prime interest rate. Risk Analysis Panel The Risk Analysis Process (RAP) relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economists to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In August 2007, an expert panel of twelve economists representing public, private, and academic sectors provided their individual estimates of the model’s independent variables and comments on the future economic outlook. Model Results Based on the panel’s inputs, the RAP model produced a mean forecast of $14,067.3 million for the period FY 2008-2026. The mean forecast average compound growth rate (CGR) was 6.6 percent. The Official Forecast for the period FY 2008-2026 totals $14,037.6 million with an average compound growth rate of 6.6 percent. The Official Forecast is $408.4 million lower than last year’s forecast, due mainly to the panel members less optimistic near term view of several inputs variables. Compared to last year’s forecast, the RAP panel members expect slower growth in the Maricopa County economy in FY 2008 through FY 2010 before returning to a more normal growth in FY 2011. The Official Forecast incorporates the 50 percent confidence interval for each year of the forecast except for FY 2008. The FY 2008 forecast of $408.7 million was developed by ADOT staff independently of the econometric model using time series techniques, historical and projected growth rates from the model. September 2007 2 Official Forecast Results (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Total Average CGR Mean Forecast $408.2 429.4 455.8 486.2 519.0 554.5 592.1 632.7 675.8 721.9 770.9 823.2 878.4 937.3 1,000.0 1,067.8 1,139.6 1,216.8 757.7 $14,067.3 6.6% Official Forecast $408.7 429.5 455.9 485.8 518.8 554.2 591.3 630.7 674.1 719.6 768.9 820.3 876.4 936.3 997.8 1,066.4 1,137.8 1,211.0 754.1 $14,037.6 6.6% Confidence Level N/A 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Note: Amount in current dollars. Totals may not add due to individual rounding. September 2007 3 For comparison purposes, the November 2006 and September 2007 Official Forecasts are shown below: FY 2008 Comparative Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Nov. 06 Official Forecast $418.7 $444.6 $473.6 $505.4 $539.3 $576.3 $614.7 $655.0 $698.2 $745.4 $793.5 $846.0 $902.2 $960.6 $1,022.1 $1,088.8 $1,159.7 $1,234.8 $767.1 Sept. 07 Official Forecast $408.7 429.5 455.9 485.8 518.8 554.2 591.3 630.7 674.1 719.6 768.9 820.3 876.4 936.3 997.8 1,066.4 1,137.8 1,211.0 754.1 Total Average CGR $14,446.0 6.6% $14,037.6 6.6% Difference ($10.0) (15.1) (17.7) (19.6) (20.5) (22.1) (23.4) (24.3) (24.1) (25.8) (24.6) (25.7) (25.8) (24.3) (24.3) (22.4) (21.9) (23.8) (13.0) ($408.4) Note: Amount in current dollars. Totals may not add due to individual rounding. September 2007 4 Summary The FY 2008-2026 Official Forecast totals $14,037.6 million, a decrease of $408.4 million over last year’s forecast. The $408.4 million decrease in revenue reflects the RAP panel members less optimistic view of the growth in Maricopa County Real Per Capita Income, Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic and Total Non-Farm Employment. In addition, the panel was concerned about a higher Prime Rate and Phoenix CPI. Construction Employment growth rate is expected to be lower until FY 2012 and then remain flat thereafter. The panel estimates the Population growth rate to be slightly lower every year except in FY 2011. In the near term, the FY 2008 RARF revenues are expected to continue to grow but at a slower rate in spite of housing and credit market concerns. Supplementary Information The remainder of this report presents supplementary information on the RAP model, the values of the independent variables forecast by the expert panel, and detailed results of the Risk Analysis Process. September 2007 5 RARF Official Revenue Forecast With Category Detail by Fiscal Year (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year Retail 2008 $193.4 2009 211.8 225.8 241.1 257.8 275.5 294.2 315.0 336.8 359.3 $2,710.7 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total: 08-17 Rental Rental Contracting Utilities Restaurant/ Real Personal Bar Property Property $73.9 $29.1 $35.7 $39.7 $16.2 64.6 66.5 69.6 73.8 78.7 83.5 87.6 93.8 100.4 $792.4 32.3 33.7 35.1 36.6 38.0 39.6 41.1 42.7 44.3 $372.5 37.4 40.0 42.9 45.9 49.2 52.6 56.4 60.2 64.4 $484.7 43.7 47.7 52.2 57.1 62.3 67.8 73.6 80.4 87.3 $611.8 17.2 18.4 19.7 21.0 22.4 23.9 25.6 27.2 28.9 $220.5 Other Total $20.7 $408.7 22.5 23.8 25.2 26.6 28.1 29.7 31.4 33.0 35.0 $276.0 429.5 455.9 485.8 518.8 554.2 591.3 630.7 674.1 719.6 $5,468.6 Note: Totals may not add due to individual rounding. September 2007 6 September 2007 RARF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year Mean 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 $408.2 429.4 455.8 486.2 519.0 554.5 592.1 632.7 675.8 721.9 770.9 823.2 878.4 937.3 1,000.0 1,067.8 1,139.6 1,216.8 1,299.0 $430.9 464.5 501.2 541.4 582.8 624.7 670.9 720.2 772.8 830.8 888.9 952.6 1,018.4 1,086.2 1,162.3 1,245.4 1,329.0 1,420.7 1,523.1 $424.8 456.0 490.2 526.7 566.1 607.6 650.5 698.3 745.9 798.0 853.9 913.1 975.3 1,038.8 1,110.6 1,188.9 1,271.3 1,361.0 1,455.7 $418.1 445.8 476.4 510.3 545.9 585.6 626.3 670.3 716.1 765.2 817.7 874.2 932.6 996.1 1,063.4 1,135.5 1,214.8 1,299.3 1,387.3 $412.7 436.4 465.1 497.3 531.3 567.9 606.4 648.2 692.7 740.5 789.9 844.1 901.5 963.1 1,027.8 1,096.4 1,170.2 1,250.3 1,334.4 $407.5 429.5 455.9 485.8 518.8 554.2 591.3 630.7 674.1 719.6 768.9 820.3 876.4 936.3 997.8 1,066.4 1,137.8 1,211.0 1,292.7 $402.5 420.5 444.2 473.4 503.9 537.1 572.9 611.2 653.3 697.1 743.8 793.6 846.9 903.4 962.0 1,028.0 1,096.0 1,167.2 1,247.2 $397.5 412.7 434.5 460.2 489.9 523.3 556.7 593.4 633.3 674.9 718.7 767.4 818.0 872.4 930.1 991.8 1,058.3 1,129.0 1,204.7 $392.7 405.0 424.3 448.3 475.1 505.7 539.0 574.5 611.4 651.4 695.4 740.4 788.8 840.8 897.5 953.0 1,016.7 1,083.3 1,155.0 $386.7 395.4 412.0 433.7 458.6 485.6 516.7 549.1 584.3 621.7 663.5 705.3 750.6 801.3 851.5 907.9 965.7 1,032.9 1,094.4 7 RARF Official Revenue Forecast Revenue Distribution (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 /2 TOTALS Regional Area Road Fund (RARF) /1 Freeways Arterial Streets (56.2%) (10.5 %) $229.7 $42.9 241.4 45.1 256.2 47.9 273.0 51.0 291.5 54.5 311.5 58.2 332.3 62.1 354.5 66.2 378.8 70.8 404.4 75.6 432.1 80.7 461.0 86.1 492.5 92.0 526.2 98.3 560.8 104.8 599.3 112.0 639.4 119.5 680.6 127.2 423.8 79.2 $7,889.1 $1,474.0 Public Transportation Fund (33.3%) $136.1 143.0 151.8 161.8 172.8 184.5 196.9 210.0 224.5 239.6 256.0 273.2 291.8 311.8 332.2 355.1 378.9 403.2 251.1 $4,674.5 Total $408.7 429.5 455.9 485.8 518.8 554.2 591.3 630.7 674.1 719.6 768.9 820.3 876.4 936.3 $997.8 1,066.4 1,137.8 $1,211.0 754.1 $14,037.6 Note: 1/ The Regional Public Transportation Authority received a portion of the excise tax funds for transit cost which is adjusted annually by the GDP price deflator. Beginning July 1, 2005, this transfer from RARF is divided equally between MAG and the Public Transportation Fund for planning and administering the regional transportation plan. 2/ Reflects the end of the one-half cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025. Totals may not add due to rounding. Distribution Per Laws 2004, Chapter 2 (HB 2456), the sales tax extension will be distributed as follows: 1. 56.2 percent to the Regional Area Road (RARF) fund for freeways and other routes in the state highway systems, including capital expense and maintenance. 2. 10.5 percent to the RARF fund for major arterial streets and intersection improvements, including capital expense and implementation studies. 3. 33.3 percent to the public transportation fund for: (a). Capital costs, maintenance and operation of public transportation classifications. (b). Capital costs and utility relocation costs associated with a light rail public transit system. September 2007 8 Official Forecast Results (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 /1 Total Mean Forecast $408.2 429.4 455.8 486.2 519.0 554.5 592.1 632.7 675.8 721.9 770.9 823.2 878.4 937.3 1,000.0 1,067.8 1,139.6 1,216.8 757.7 $14,067.3 Official Forecast $408.7 429.5 455.9 485.8 518.8 554.2 591.3 630.7 674.1 719.6 768.9 820.3 876.4 936.3 997.8 1,066.4 1,137.8 1,211.0 754.1 $14,037.6 80% Conf. Interval $392.7 405.0 424.3 448.3 475.1 505.7 539.0 574.5 611.4 651.4 695.4 740.4 788.8 840.8 897.5 953.0 1,016.7 1,083.3 673.8 $12,717.3 20% Conf. Interval $424.8 456.0 490.2 526.7 566.1 607.6 650.5 698.3 745.9 798.0 853.9 913.1 975.3 1,038.8 1,110.6 1,188.9 1,271.3 1,361.0 849.2 $15,526.2 Note: 1/ FY 2026 totals are adjusted to reflect the transportation excise tax expiration on December 31, 2025. Totals may not add due to individual rounding. $1,600 Millions of Current Dollars $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Fiscal Year Mean Fcst September 2007 Official Fcst 80% Conf. Interval 20% Conf. Interval 9 Maricopa County Real Income 4.0% 3.5% Growth Rate 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Maricopa County Population 4.0% 3.5% Growth Rate 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Fiscal Year Median September 2007 Lower 10% Upper 10% 10 Maricopa County Construction Employment 15.0% Growth Rate 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Prime Interest Rate 14.0% 12.0% Rate 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Fiscal Year Median September 2007 Lower 10% Upper 10% 11 Phoenix CPI 8.0% 7.0% Growth Rate 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2024 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% U.S. Housing Start 20.0% 15.0% Growth Rate 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% 2008 2010 2012 2014 Median September 2007 2016 2018 Fiscal Year Lower 10% 2020 2022 Upper 10% 12 Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% Growth Rate 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2024 2026 Fiscal Year Median Low er 10% Upper 10% Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment 8.0% Growth Rate 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Fiscal Year Median September 2007 Lower 10% Upper 10% 13 Mean Panelist Data Values Real Construction Prime U. S. Sky Harbor Income Population Employment Interest Phoenix Housing Passenger Growth /1 Growth /1 Growth /1 Rate CPI Growth Start Growth Traffic Growth FY 2008 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2009 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2010 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2011 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2012 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2016 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2021 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2026 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Total Non-Farm Employment Growth /1 2.43% 0.58% 1.51% 3.59% 2.49% 3.03% 1.95% -8.52% -3.96% 9.44% 6.05% 7.99% 3.55% 1.72% 2.71% 0.44% -16.07% -9.36% 4.97% 0.83% 2.81% 4.29% 0.68% 2.63% 2.54% 0.35% 1.43% 3.61% 2.38% 2.91% 5.12% -5.44% -0.75% 9.52% 5.79% 7.87% 3.74% 1.77% 2.85% 8.08% -5.66% 1.45% 5.04% 0.72% 2.84% 4.81% 0.84% 2.91% 2.60% 0.33% 1.29% 3.57% 2.30% 2.88% 7.40% -3.23% 1.75% 9.51% 5.51% 7.73% 3.68% 1.71% 2.82% 10.19% -3.40% 3.76% 5.00% 0.70% 2.82% 4.83% 0.66% 2.84% 2.71% 0.36% 1.39% 3.53% 2.22% 2.84% 8.20% -2.72% 2.98% 9.58% 5.49% 7.69% 3.68% 1.66% 2.75% 8.87% -3.16% 3.83% 5.27% 1.00% 3.05% 5.03% 0.71% 2.89% 2.75% 0.47% 1.45% 3.47% 2.08% 2.80% 8.32% -2.33% 2.83% 9.54% 5.35% 7.60% 3.66% 1.60% 2.66% 7.62% -4.08% 2.13% 5.56% 1.26% 3.38% 4.97% 0.64% 2.94% 2.82% 0.36% 1.53% 3.22% 1.81% 2.45% 8.58% -1.79% 3.40% 9.65% 5.27% 7.55% 3.73% 1.50% 2.54% 8.52% -3.88% 2.42% 5.69% 1.02% 3.30% 4.99% 0.43% 2.77% 2.79% 0.25% 1.46% 3.07% 1.54% 2.20% 8.85% -1.97% 3.40% 9.85% 5.27% 7.63% 3.94% 1.47% 2.57% 8.14% -5.03% 1.63% 5.76% 0.46% 3.12% 5.06% 0.29% 2.68% 2.86% 0.06% 1.43% 2.93% 1.28% 1.97% 8.83% -2.08% 3.44% 10.03% 5.22% 7.66% 4.12% 1.46% 2.56% 8.54% -4.87% 1.81% 5.95% 0.28% 3.12% 5.22% 0.24% 2.63% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates with the exception of prime rates which are nominal rates. /1 Data for Maricopa County September 2007 14 Per Capita Income Growth Rate 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 2.50% 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% Lower 10% 0.60% 0.50% 0.30% 0.10% 0.10% Median 1.50% 1.30% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 3.00% 3.50% 3.70% 3.70% 3.50% Lower 10% 1.10% 1.10% 1.00% 0.80% 0.70% Median 1.90% 2.10% 2.30% 2.10% 2.10% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 2.50% 3.10% 3.20% 3.32% 3.42% Lower 10% 0.90% 0.90% 1.00% 1.00% 0.90% Median 1.70% 2.20% 2.20% 2.10% 2.10% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 3.00% 3.20% 3.40% 3.50% 3.50% Lower 10% 0.80% 0.78% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% Median 1.80% 2.00% 2.20% 2.20% 2.10% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 2.80% 3.42% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% Lower 10% -0.50% -1.00% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% Median 1.10% 1.70% 1.30% 1.20% 1.20% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 2.70% 2.90% 2.90% 3.00% 3.10% Lower 10% 0.90% 0.50% 0.40% 0.30% 0.00% Median 1.80% 1.60% 1.50% 1.50% 1.40% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% 1.50% Lower 10% 1.20% 1.20% 1.20% 1.20% 1.10% Median 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.30% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 1.90% 2.50% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Lower 10% 0.20% 0.50% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% Median 1.60% 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% Panelist 9 Upper 10% 1.70% 1.00% 1.30% 1.30% 1.50% Lower 10% -0.30% -1.20% -2.00% -2.00% -0.50% Median 0.70% -1.00% -1.00% -0.90% -0.10% Panelist 10 Upper 10% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 2.50% 3.00% Lower 10% 1.00% 0.00% -0.50% 0.50% 1.00% Median N/A 1.00% 0.00% 1.50% 2.00% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 2.00% 2.00% 1.80% 1.70% 1.80% Lower 10% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.20% Median 1.50% 1.40% 1.20% 1.10% 1.00% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 2.80% 2.90% 2.90% 3.00% 2.90% Lower 10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% 0.30% Median 1.50% 1.60% 1.60% 1.70% 1.60% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. N/A means Not Available September 2007 2016 2021 2026 2.30% 0.10% 1.00% 2.30% 0.10% 1.00% 2.30% 0.10% 1.00% 3.50% 0.50% 1.80% 3.20% 3.40% 0.50% -0.11% 1.30% 1.50% 3.40% 0.82% 2.20% 3.40% 3.40% 0.50% -0.11% 2.00% 1.70% 3.58% 0.50% 2.10% 3.60% 0.30% 2.00% 3.80% 0.20% 1.80% 3.50% 0.20% 1.20% 3.50% 0.20% 1.20% 3.50% 0.20% 1.20% 3.30% -1.00% 1.10% 3.40% 3.50% -1.30% -1.50% 1.00% 1.00% 1.50% 1.10% 1.30% 1.50% 1.10% 1.30% 1.50% 1.10% 1.30% 3.00% 0.70% 1.70% 2.70% 0.50% 1.70% 2.70% 0.00% 1.60% 2.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 0.00% 1.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 1.80% 0.20% 1.30% 1.80% 0.00% 1.40% 1.80% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 0.20% 1.60% 3.10% 3.40% 0.10% -0.20% 1.60% 1.60% 15 Maricopa County Population Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2016 2021 2026 3.80% 2.80% 3.20% 3.70% 2.80% 3.10% 3.80% 2.80% 3.20% 3.70% 2.50% 3.20% 3.70% 2.50% 3.20% 3.60% 2.40% 3.00% 3.50% 2.20% 2.80% 3.50% 2.00% 2.80% 3.67% 2.80% 3.30% 3.47% 2.70% 3.00% 3.37% 2.40% 2.80% 3.27% 2.20% 2.70% 3.17% 1.90% 2.50% 2.95% 1.60% 2.20% 2.76% 1.20% 1.90% 2.63% 1.00% 1.60% 3.20% 2.00% 2.80% 3.30% 2.00% 2.80% 3.40% 2.20% 3.00% 3.50% 2.20% 3.00% 3.40% 2.00% 2.80% 3.00% 1.80% 2.40% 2.90% 1.80% 2.30% 2.90% 1.80% 2.20% 3.60% 2.90% 3.30% 3.70% 2.70% 3.20% 3.80% 2.70% 3.30% 3.80% 2.60% 3.20% 3.80% 2.50% 3.10% 3.40% 2.00% 2.70% 3.20% 1.70% 2.40% 3.00% 1.50% 2.20% 3.67% 2.33% 2.80% 3.47% 2.13% 2.55% 3.37% 2.03% 2.30% 3.27% 1.93% 2.05% 3.17% 1.83% N/A 2.95% 1.45% 1.55% 2.76% 1.04% 1.30% 2.63% 0.57% 1.05% 3.60% 2.40% 3.00% 3.80% 2.10% 3.00% 3.60% 2.00% 2.90% 3.40% 1.90% 2.70% 3.40% 1.80% 2.60% 3.30% 1.50% 2.50% 3.30% 1.40% 2.30% 3.40% 1.00% 2.10% 3.50% 2.50% 3.00% 3.30% 2.30% 2.80% 3.20% 2.20% 2.70% 3.10% 2.10% 2.60% 3.00% 2.00% 2.50% 2.70% 1.70% 2.20% 2.40% 1.40% 1.90% 2.10% 1.10% 1.60% 3.50% 2.50% 3.00% 3.80% 2.60% 3.10% 3.80% 2.50% 3.30% 3.80% 2.50% 3.40% 3.80% 2.30% 3.30% 3.50% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 1.50% 2.50% 2.50% 1.00% 2.00% 4.00% 2.40% 3.00% 4.00% 2.40% 2.90% 3.80% 2.40% 2.70% 3.80% 2.40% 2.50% 3.80% 2.20% 2.40% 3.50% 2.00% 2.40% 3.50% 2.00% 2.40% 3.50% 2.00% 2.40% 3.67% 2.50% 3.20% 3.47% 2.00% 2.70% 3.37% 1.70% 2.50% 3.27% 1.70% 2.70% 3.17% 1.70% 2.50% 2.95% 1.45% 2.00% 2.76% 1.04% 1.70% 2.63% 1.00% 1.50% 3.40% 2.60% 2.90% 3.60% 2.50% 2.80% 3.70% 2.40% 2.90% 4.00% 2.50% 3.20% 4.00% 2.30% 3.30% 3.80% 2.20% 3.10% 3.80% 2.10% 2.90% 3.80% 2.00% 2.70% 3.50% 2.10% 2.80% 3.70% 2.30% 3.00% 3.70% 2.30% 3.00% 3.50% 2.10% 2.80% 3.30% 1.90% 2.60% 3.00% 1.60% 2.30% 2.90% 1.10% 2.00% 2.60% 0.40% 1.50% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. N/A means not available September 2007 16 Maricopa County Construction Employment Growth Rate 2008 2009 2010 2011 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 0.00% 5.00% 6.00% 9.00% Lower 10% -8.00% -7.00% -6.00% -6.00% Median -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 0.00% Panelist 2 Upper 10% -3.00% 0.00% 9.45% 9.45% Lower 10% -12.00% -10.00% -5.45% -4.00% Median -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 2.00% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 2.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.50% Lower 10% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.00% Median 1.00% 2.50% 3.50% 3.50% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 1.50% 5.50% 8.50% 9.00% Lower 10% -10.50% -6.50% -5.50% -6.00% Median -5.50% 1.50% 2.50% 2.50% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 7.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% Lower 10% -15.00% -6.00% -6.00% -6.00% Median -5.00% 0.00% 2.00% 2.00% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 5.50% 6.00% 6.50% 7.00% Lower 10% -6.50% -6.00% -5.00% -5.50% Median -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.80% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 0.00% 3.00% 6.00% 9.00% Lower 10% -6.00% -3.00% 0.00% 3.00% Median -3.00% 0.00% 3.00% 6.00% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 5.00% 5.00% 9.00% 9.00% Lower 10% -10.00% -5.00% -2.00% -2.00% Median -3.00% 0.00% 5.00% 5.00% Panelist 9 Upper 10% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 4.00% Lower 10% -10.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% Median -5.00% -4.30% -3.00% 1.00% Panelist 10 Upper 10% -5.00% 3.00% 5.00% 5.00% Lower 10% -15.00% -5.00% 0.00% 0.00% Median -10.00% 0.00% 3.00% 3.00% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 3.00% 5.00% 7.00% 8.00% Lower 10% 0.20% 0.10% 0.60% 1.00% Median 1.00% 0.00% 3.00% 7.00% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 5.40% 7.40% 9.40% 9.40% Lower 10% -9.40% -7.40% -5.40% -5.40% Median -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 2.00% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. September 2007 2012 2016 2021 2026 10.00% -6.00% 0.00% 12.00% 3.00% 6.00% 12.00% 12.00% 3.00% 3.00% 7.00% 7.00% 9.45% 0.00% 3.00% 10.50% 0.00% 5.00% 11.55% 10.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.00% 5.00% 4.50% 1.00% 3.25% 4.00% 1.00% 3.00% 4.00% 1.00% 3.00% 10.00% -6.50% 3.00% 10.50% -7.00% 3.00% 11.00% 11.00% -7.50% -8.00% 3.00% 3.00% 15.00% -6.00% 2.00% 15.00% -6.00% 2.00% 15.00% 15.00% -6.00% -6.00% 2.00% 2.00% 7.50% -4.00% 2.50% 8.50% -5.00% 3.00% 9.00% 10.00% -5.50% -6.00% 3.00% 3.50% 7.00% 1.00% 4.00% 7.00% 1.00% 4.00% 7.00% 1.00% 4.00% 9.00% -5.00% 5.00% 9.00% -5.00% 2.00% 9.00% 9.00% -5.00% -5.00% 2.00% 2.00% 4.00% 0.00% 1.20% 4.00% 0.00% 1.80% 4.00% 0.00% 1.80% 4.00% 0.00% 2.80% 5.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 9.00% 1.00% 5.00% 8.00% 1.00% 6.00% 8.00% 1.00% 5.00% 8.00% 1.00% 4.00% 9.40% -5.40% 2.00% 10.50% -6.50% 2.00% 11.60% 12.00% -7.60% -8.00% 2.00% 2.00% 4.00% 1.00% 3.00% 7.00% 1.00% 4.00% 17 Prime Interest Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2016 2021 2026 9.50% 7.00% 8.50% 9.00% 6.00% 8.20% 9.00% 5.00% 8.00% 9.00% 5.00% 7.80% 9.00% 5.00% 7.80% 9.00% 4.50% 7.50% 9.00% 4.50% 7.50% 9.00% 4.50% 7.50% 10.78% 10.70% 10.70% 10.70% 10.58% 10.65% 10.85% 11.04% 5.38% 5.30% 5.30% 5.30% 5.18% 4.85% 4.65% 4.46% 8.08% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 7.88% 7.75% 7.75% 7.75% 8.50% 6.00% 7.50% 8.00% 5.50% 7.00% 8.00% 5.50% 7.00% 8.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 6.00% 7.00% 9.00% 6.00% 7.80% 9.50% 10.00% 10.50% 10.50% 10.50% 10.80% 11.04% 5.50% 5.50% 5.30% 5.00% 4.80% 4.50% 4.46% 7.50% 7.80% 8.00% 8.00% 7.75% 7.75% 7.75% 10.00% 10.25% 10.50% 10.75% 11.00% 11.25% 11.50% 11.75% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.75% 6.00% 7.50% 9.00% 4.75% 7.00% 9.00% 4.50% 6.50% 9.50% 4.50% 6.50% 9.75% 10.00% 10.50% 11.50% 4.25% 4.00% 3.75% 3.50% 6.50% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 9.08% 7.08% 8.08% 9.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 7.00% 8.00% 8.88% 6.88% 7.88% 8.75% 6.75% 7.75% 8.75% 6.75% 7.75% 8.75% 6.75% 7.75% 9.00% 7.00% 8.25% 9.50% 7.00% 8.25% 9.50% 6.00% 8.00% 9.50% 6.00% 8.00% 9.50% 6.00% 8.00% 9.50% 6.00% 8.00% 9.50% 6.00% 8.00% 9.50% 6.00% 8.00% 9.38% 7.38% 8.38% 9.68% 7.68% 8.68% 8.68% 6.68% 7.68% 8.25% 6.25% 7.25% 7.68% 5.68% 6.68% 8.44% 6.44% 7.44% 9.37% 7.37% 8.37% 9.72% 7.72% 8.72% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.80% 6.60% 8.00% 8.90% 6.50% 7.80% 9.00% 6.40% 7.80% 9.00% 6.20% 7.70% 9.00% 6.00% 7.60% 9.00% 6.00% 7.60% 9.00% 6.00% 7.60% 9.00% 5.80% 7.60% 10.50% 10.70% 10.70% 10.70% 10.60% 10.70% 10.90% 11.00% 5.10% 5.30% 5.30% 5.30% 5.20% 4.90% 4.70% 4.50% 7.80% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 7.90% 7.80% 7.80% 7.80% All data in the above table are in nominal rates. September 2007 18 U. S. Housing Start Growth Rate 2008 Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2009 2010 2011 2012 2016 2021 2026 0.00% 8.00% 15.00% -16.00% -12.00% -8.00% -10.00% 2.00% 1.00% 12.00% -8.00% 1.00% 12.00% -8.00% 1.00% 12.00% -8.00% 1.00% 12.00% -8.00% 1.00% 12.00% -8.00% 1.00% -2.11% 5.00% -17.89% -8.00% -10.00% -4.00% 15.39% -0.39% 2.00% 9.39% -6.39% 1.50% 6.99% -8.79% -0.90% 9.30% 7.90% 10.52% -7.90% -10.30% -8.72% 0.70% -1.20% 0.90% 5.00% 15.00% -15.00% 0.00% -10.00% 10.00% 12.00% 2.00% 8.00% 10.00% 2.00% 7.50% 10.00% 2.00% 7.50% 10.00% 2.00% 6.00% 0.00% 8.00% -15.00% -3.00% -5.00% 2.50% 12.00% -5.00% 5.00% 9.00% -7.00% 1.00% 8.00% -7.50% 0.50% 9.00% 10.00% 10.00% -8.00% -10.00% -10.00% 0.80% 1.00% 1.00% 10.00% 7.00% 7.50% -25.00% -10.00% -8.50% -20.00% 0.00% 4.00% 8.00% -2.00% 3.50% 8.50% -2.00% 3.00% 9.00% -2.00% 2.50% 9.50% -2.00% 2.00% 10.00% -2.00% 1.50% -1.50% 5.00% -16.00% -4.00% -9.00% 2.00% 6.50% -2.00% 2.80% 7.00% -2.50% 3.00% 8.00% -3.00% 3.20% 10.00% -6.00% 3.00% 10.00% -8.00% 2.00% 11.00% -9.00% 1.50% -5.00% 11.00% -15.00% 1.00% -10.00% 6.00% 11.00% 1.00% 6.00% 9.00% -1.00% 4.00% 9.00% -1.00% 4.00% 9.00% -1.00% 4.00% 9.00% -1.00% 4.00% 9.00% -1.00% 4.00% 5.00% 15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 3.50% 15.00% -2.00% 10.00% 10.00% -2.00% 5.00% 5.00% -5.00% 2.00% 5.00% -5.00% 2.00% 5.00% -5.00% 2.00% 5.00% -5.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 5.00% -15.00% -10.00% -10.00% -2.00% -10.30% -8.60% -5.70% 2.40% 5.00% -2.00% 2.20% 5.00% -2.00% 2.00% 5.00% -2.00% 1.80% 5.00% -2.00% 1.80% -5.00% 5.00% -15.00% -5.00% -10.00% 0.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% n/a 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 2.00% 6.00% -12.00% -6.00% -5.00% 2.00% 7.00% -6.00% 4.00% 7.20% -6.00% 7.00% 7.20% -6.00% 1.00% 7.20% -6.00% 0.00% 7.20% -6.00% 0.00% 7.20% -6.00% 0.00% -5.10% 9.90% -20.90% -5.90% -13.00% 2.00% 13.90% -1.90% 6.00% 15.90% 0.10% 8.00% 8.70% -8.70% 0.00% 13.70% 9.10% 9.70% -3.70% -11.10% -9.70% 5.00% -1.00% 0.00% 10.00% 2.00% 6.00% 10.00% 2.00% 6.00% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. September 2007 19 Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2016 2021 2026 5.00% 1.00% 3.50% 5.50% 1.00% 3.50% 6.00% 1.00% 3.50% 6.00% 1.00% 3.50% 6.00% 1.00% 3.50% 6.00% 1.00% 3.50% 6.00% 1.00% 3.50% 6.00% 1.00% 3.50% 5.38% 0.62% 3.00% 5.60% 0.62% 3.20% 5.80% 0.62% 3.40% 6.00% 0.62% 3.60% 6.00% 0.62% 3.80% 6.30% 0.10% 4.00% 6.64% -0.64% 4.00% 7.00% -1.00% 4.00% 4.50% 1.00% 3.00% 4.50% 1.25% 3.50% 4.00% 1.50% 3.50% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 3.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.50% 2.00% 2.50% 4.50% 1.50% 3.20% 5.00% 1.20% 3.10% 5.20% 1.00% 3.00% 5.20% 1.00% 3.00% 5.38% 0.80% 3.00% 5.50% 0.50% 2.80% 6.00% 0.00% 2.80% 6.50% 0.00% 2.80% 6.00% 0.62% 2.00% 6.00% 0.62% 2.00% 6.00% 0.62% 2.00% 6.00% 0.62% 2.00% 6.00% 0.62% 2.00% 6.00% 0.10% 2.00% 6.00% -0.64% 2.00% 6.00% -1.00% 2.00% 5.38% 0.62% 3.00% 5.38% 0.62% 3.00% 5.38% 0.62% 3.00% 5.38% 0.62% 3.00% 5.38% 0.62% 3.00% 5.90% 0.10% 3.00% 6.64% -0.64% 3.00% 7.00% -1.00% 3.00% 5.50% 0.50% 3.00% 5.50% 0.50% 3.00% 5.50% 0.50% 3.00% 5.50% 0.50% 3.00% 5.50% 0.50% 3.00% 6.00% 0.20% 3.00% 6.50% -0.50% 3.00% 7.00% -1.00% 3.00% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 0.00% 2.50% 6.00% 2.00% 4.00% 8.00% 4.00% 6.40% 8.00% 4.00% 6.00% 6.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 2.00% 4.00% 3.50% 1.00% 2.50% 3.00% 0.00% 2.00% 2.00% 0.00% 1.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 5.00% 1.20% 2.20% 5.10% 1.00% 2.40% 5.20% 0.80% 2.60% 5.00% 0.60% 3.00% 5.00% 0.60% 3.00% 5.00% 0.60% 3.00% 5.00% 0.60% 3.00% 5.00% 0.60% 3.00% 5.90% 1.10% 3.50% 5.90% 1.10% 3.50% 5.90% 1.10% 3.50% 5.90% 1.10% 3.50% 5.90% 1.10% 3.50% 6.40% 0.60% 3.50% 7.10% -0.10% 3.50% 7.50% -0.50% 3.50% N/A All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. N/A means available September 2007 20 Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2016 2021 2026 5.60% 0.50% 3.00% 5.70% 1.00% 3.10% 5.70% 1.00% 3.20% 5.70% 1.00% 3.20% 5.70% 1.00% 3.20% 5.50% 0.00% 3.00% 5.00% -0.50% 2.80% 5.00% -0.50% 2.80% 4.40% -1.00% 1.50% 5.10% 0.80% 2.80% 5.40% 0.20% 3.10% 5.10% 0.10% 2.60% 5.00% 0.00% 2.50% 5.33% -0.13% 2.60% 5.52% -0.32% 2.60% 5.53% -0.33% 2.60% 3.00% 0.50% 2.50% 4.00% 1.00% 3.00% 4.00% 1.00% 3.00% 4.50% 1.50% 3.50% 4.50% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% 1.25% 2.75% 4.50% 1.25% 2.50% 4.50% 1.25% 2.50% 5.00% 1.10% 3.20% 5.40% 0.90% 3.20% 5.70% 0.70% 3.40% 5.70% 0.50% 3.30% 5.60% 0.50% 3.20% 5.70% 0.20% 3.00% 5.60% -0.10% 2.80% 5.50% -0.20% 2.60% 5.50% -0.50% 2.50% 5.50% -0.50% 2.50% 5.50% -0.50% 2.50% 5.50% -0.50% 2.50% 5.50% -0.50% 2.50% 5.50% -0.50% 2.50% 5.50% -0.50% 2.50% 5.50% -0.50% 2.50% 4.50% 1.10% 2.70% 5.50% 1.00% 2.90% 6.00% 1.00% 3.00% 6.10% 0.80% 3.20% 6.50% 0.70% 3.30% 7.00% -0.50% 3.00% 8.00% -1.00% 2.80% 10.00% -1.50% 2.50% 3.00% 2.00% 2.50% 3.50% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 2.50% 3.00% 3.30% 2.30% 2.80% 3.30% 2.30% 2.80% 3.00% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 0.50% 2.00% 5.50% 1.00% 3.50% 5.50% 1.00% 3.50% 5.50% 0.50% 3.50% 5.50% 0.00% 3.30% 5.50% -0.50% 2.50% 5.50% -0.50% 2.50% 5.50% -0.50% 2.50% 3.50% 0.50% 3.10% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% -0.30% 2.20% 4.00% 1.00% 2.00% 4.00% 1.00% 3.70% 3.50% 1.00% 3.50% 3.50% 1.00% 3.25% 3.50% 1.00% 3.25% 4.50% 2.50% 3.20% 3.00% 0.50% 2.50% 2.50% 0.00% 1.00% N/A N/A 2.90% 4.00% N/A 2.80% 4.00% 2.00% 2.70% 4.00% 2.00% 2.70% 4.00% 2.00% 2.60% 4.20% 0.40% 2.80% 4.70% 0.90% 3.30% 4.60% 0.70% 3.10% 4.80% 0.50% 2.60% 5.00% 0.50% 2.50% 5.10% 0.50% 2.60% 5.10% 0.50% 2.60% 5.10% 0.50% 2.60% 5.30% 0.50% 2.60% 5.80% 1.00% 3.10% 5.60% 0.60% 3.10% 5.10% 0.10% 2.60% 5.00% 0.00% 2.50% 5.30% -0.10% 2.60% 5.50% -0.30% 2.60% 5.50% -0.30% 2.60% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. N/A means not available September 2007 21 Phoenix CPI Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2016 2021 2026 3.60% 2.10% 3.20% 3.70% 2.30% 3.40% 3.70% 2.20% 3.30% 3.70% 2.20% 3.30% 3.70% 2.20% 3.20% 3.50% 2.10% 2.90% 3.50% 2.00% 2.80% 3.50% 2.00% 2.80% 3.90% 1.80% 2.60% 4.10% 2.10% 3.00% 3.19% 1.30% 2.40% 3.19% 1.10% 2.30% 3.19% 1.10% 2.30% 3.32% 1.10% 2.10% 3.39% 0.81% 2.10% 3.50% 0.90% 2.20% 4.00% 2.50% 3.50% 4.50% 2.50% 3.50% 4.25% 2.40% 3.50% 4.00% 2.50% 3.00% 4.00% 2.50% 3.03% 4.00% 2.50% 2.80% 4.00% 2.50% 2.80% 4.00% 2.50% 2.80% 3.50% 1.50% 2.40% 3.30% 1.40% 2.20% 3.19% 1.40% 2.20% 3.30% 1.20% 2.20% 3.19% 1.20% 2.20% 3.50% 1.00% 2.20% 3.50% 1.00% 2.20% 3.50% 1.00% 2.20% 3.30% 1.01% 2.50% 3.40% 0.91% 2.50% 3.50% 1.01% 2.50% 3.60% 1.01% 2.50% 3.70% 1.01% 2.50% 3.80% 0.88% 2.50% 3.90% 0.81% 2.50% 4.00% 0.90% 2.50% 3.05% 1.55% 2.30% 2.85% 1.35% 2.40% 2.85% 1.35% 2.20% 2.75% 1.25% 2.00% 2.85% 1.35% 2.10% 3.10% 1.33% 2.20% 3.50% 1.14% 2.30% 4.00% 1.04% 2.40% 3.50% 1.50% 2.50% 3.50% 1.50% 2.50% 3.50% 1.50% 2.50% 3.50% 1.50% 2.50% 3.50% 1.50% 2.50% 3.50% 1.50% 2.50% 3.50% 1.50% 2.50% 3.50% 1.50% 2.50% 3.80% 2.00% 3.20% 3.50% 1.50% 3.00% 3.20% 1.50% 2.80% 3.20% 1.50% 2.80% 3.20% 1.50% 2.50% 3.20% 1.50% 2.50% 3.20% 1.50% 2.50% 3.20% 1.50% 2.50% 2.31% 0.91% 1.61% 4.15% 2.45% 3.45% 4.68% 2.98% 3.98% 4.55% 3.15% 3.85% 4.20% 2.80% 3.50% 4.01% 2.61% 3.31% 4.48% 3.08% 3.78% 4.37% 2.97% 3.67% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.60% 2.40% 3.10% 3.70% 2.20% 3.10% 3.80% 2.00% 3.20% 3.90% 1.90% 3.30% 4.00% 1.80% 3.20% 4.00% 1.80% 3.10% 4.00% 1.80% 3.30% 4.00% 1.80% 3.30% 4.80% 2.00% 3.40% 4.50% 1.70% 3.10% 4.40% 1.60% 3.00% 4.20% 1.40% 2.80% 4.00% 1.20% 2.60% 3.90% 0.90% 2.40% 3.80% 0.60% 2.20% 3.90% 0.50% 2.20% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. September 2007 22 HISTORICAL DATA GROWTH IN REAL INCOME PER CAPITA Using Phoenix CPI to Measure Inflation (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 3.0% 1.0% -4.6% -3.0% 1.6% 4.2% 3.0% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -0.6% -1.2% -2.5% 0.0% 4.7% 3.1% 2.0% 1.1% 1.3% 0.4% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 0.1% -3.3% -1.9% -0.6% -0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 1.5% 1.1% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008 2009 2.3% 1.5% -0.9% -0.5% 1.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% *Estimate HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 0.06 6.0% Percent Change 0.04 4.0% 0.02 2.0% 0.0% 0 -2.0% -0.02 -4.0% -0.04 2007 2003 2005 2004 2002 2006 1977 1978 1977 1976 1978 1979 1979 1980 1979 1978 1980 1981 1981 1981 1982 1981 1980 1982 1983 1983 1983 1984 1983 1982 1984 1985 1986 1985 1984 1986 1987 1987 1988 1987 1986 1989 1988 1990 1989 1988 1991 1990 1992 1991 1991 1993 1990 1992 1994 1993 1993 1995 1992 1994 1995 1996 1997 1995 1994 1996 1998 1997 1999 1997 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 1999 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2001 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 1976 1975 1974 1977 1976 1972 1974 1973 1975 1973 1974 -6.0% -0.06 Fiscal Fiscal Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2007 Historical Std. Min. Max. Mean Dev. -0.5% 1.6% 1.1% 0.9% -0.9% 2.3% 1.1% 1.0% -4.6% 4.7% 0.6% 2.0% 80% Range Lower Upper 0.1% 1.6% -0.5% 1.7% -2.3% 3.0% 23 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 3.6% 4.7% 5.9% 6.4% 5.2% 3.0% 2.1% 3.9% 4.4% 4.9% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 4.4% 3.0% 2.9% 3.2% 4.4% 5.3% 4.2% 4.5% 2.9% 2.6% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1.4% 3.1% 3.4% 3.8% 4.9% 5.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008 2009 3.1% 3.3% 3.1% 2.8% 3.2% 4.0% 3.5% 3.1% FY 2006 and prior from Bureau of Economic Analysis. * FY 2007 to 2008 from Greater Phoenix Blue Chip. FY 2009 and after DES estimates of growth rate. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 0.07 0.07 7.0% Percent Change 0.06 0.06 6.0% 5.0% 0.05 0.05 4.0% 0.04 0.04 0.03 3.0% 0.03 0.02 2.0% 0.02 1.0% 0.01 0.01 2007 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2001 2002 2003 1999 2000 2001 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981 1982 1983 1983 1984 1985 1985 1986 1987 1987 1988 1989 1989 1990 1991 1991 1992 1993 1993 1994 1995 1995 1996 1997 1997 1998 1999 1976 1977 1974 1975 1972 1973 1973 1970 1971 1971 0.0% 00 Fiscal Fiscal Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2007 Historical Min. Max. 2.8% 4.0% 2.8% 4.0% 1.4% 6.4% Std. 80% Range Mean Dev. Lower Upper 3.3% 0.5% 2.9% 3.8% 3.3% 0.3% 3.0% 3.7% 3.8% 1.0% 2.8% 5.1% 24 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY GROWTH IN CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 18.9% 16.1% 0.2% -16.4% -12.4% 13.7% 34.0% 29.7% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 5.5% -4.9% -4.5% 6.1% 22.3% 20.0% 8.8% -4.0% -7.3% -7.0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 -7.1% -5.6% -1.4% 7.0% 14.5% 15.4% 9.6% 6.0% 8.1% 9.3% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008 2009 5.8% 5.7% 2.8% 1.1% 6.1% 11.6% 13.6% 5.1% FY 2005 and prior from Bureau of Economic Analysis. * FY 2006 to 2007 from Greater Phoenix Blue Chip. FY 2008 and after ADOT staff estimates. 2004 2003 2005 2002 2006 2007 70.0% 0.7 0.4 40.0% 60.0% 0.6 0.3 30.0% 50.0% 0.5 0.4 40.0% 0.2 20.0% 0.3 30.0% 0.2 20.0% 0.1 10.0% 0.1 10.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% -0.1 -10.0% -10.0% -0.1 -0.2 -20.0% -0.3 -20.0% -30.0% -0.2 1973 1962 1963 1972 1962 1973 1964 1965 1974 1975 1964 1975 1967 1966 1976 1977 1966 1977 1969 1968 1968 1978 1979 1970 1971 1979 1970 1980 1973 1981 1972 1981 1972 1982 1975 1974 1974 1983 1983 1977 1976 1984 1976 1985 1979 1978 1986 1987 1980 1981 1988 1989 1982 1983 1989 1982 1990 1984 1991 1985 1984 1991 1986 1992 1987 1986 1993 1993 1988 1994 1989 1988 1995 1990 1995 1991 1990 1996 1997 1992 1993 1997 1992 1998 1994 1999 1995 1994 1999 1996 2000 2001 1997 1996 1998 2001 2002 2003 1999 1998 2000 2003 2004 2005 2001 2000 2002 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal FiscalYear Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2007 Historical Min. Max. Mean 1.1% 13.6% 7.5% 1.1% 13.6% 6.9% -16.4% 34.0% 6.3% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 5.0% 2.7% 12.8% 3.8% 2.6% 11.8% 11.2% -7.1% 19.4% 25 HISTORICAL DATA PRIME INTEREST RATE HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.8% 5.9% 6.9% 8.4% 6.7% 5.4% 6.1% 9.6% 9.8% 7.2% 6.6% 7.7% 10.9% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 15.0% 16.6% 17.5% 12.0% 11.3% 11.4% 9.2% 7.7% 15.0% 10.6% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 10.3% 9.5% 7.2% 6.0% 6.2% 8.4% 8.5% 8.3% 8.5% 8.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 8.6% 8.7% 5.3% 4.4% 4.0% 5.2% 7.2% 8.3% FY 2007 and prior from Federal Reserve. FY 2008 and after from Global Insight, Second Quarter 2008, Trend Forecast. 2002 2003 2005 2007 2006 2000 2001 2003 2005 2004 1998 1999 2001 2003 2002 1996 1997 1999 2001 2000 1994 1995 1997 1999 1998 1975 1974 1973 1975 1972 1977 1976 1975 1977 1974 1979 1978 1977 1979 1976 1981 1980 1979 1981 1978 1983 1982 1981 1983 1980 1985 1984 1983 1985 1982 1987 1986 1985 1987 1984 1989 1988 1987 1989 1986 1991 1990 1989 1991 1988 1993 1992 1991 1993 1990 1995 1994 1993 1995 1992 1997 1996 1973 1972 1971 1973 1970 1971 1970 1969 1971 1968 1969 1968 1967 1966 1967 1965 1966 1964 20.0% 20.0% 18.0% 18.0% 16.0% 16.0% 14.0% 14.0% 12.0% 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1965 1963 1962 1964 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2007 Historical Min. Max. 4.0% 8.3% 4.0% 8.7% 4.0% 17.5% Mean 5.8% 6.8% 8.4% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 1.8% 4.2% 7.8% 1.9% 4.4% 8.6% 3.2% 5.0% 11.8% 26 HISTORICAL DATA PHOENIX CPI GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 6.1% 1982 5.6% 1983 7.6% 1984 11.7% 1985 11.1% 1986 7.7% 1987 7.7% 1988 10.7% 1989 13.7% 13.6% 10.0% 5.5% 3.5% 4.6% 4.2% 2.9% 3.4% 4.3% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 4.9% 4.7% 3.4% 3.1% 3.6% 4.0% 4.6% 4.9% 4.4% 3.9% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008 2009 3.4% 2.4% 1.8% 1.7% 2.4% 3.3% 3.6% 3.0% * Estimate 2006 2007 2005 2003 2004 2005 2001 2002 2003 1980 1981 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1987 1988 1989 1989 1990 1991 1991 1992 1993 1993 1994 1995 1995 1996 1997 1997 1998 1999 1999 2000 2001 0.16 16.0% 0.14 14.0% 0.12 12.0% 0.1 10.0% 0.08 8.0% 0.06 6.0% 0.04 4.0% 0.02 2.0% 0 0.0% 1973 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975 1976 1977 1977 1978 1979 1979 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal FiscalYear Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2007 Historical Min. Max. Mean 1.7% 3.6% 2.8% 1.7% 4.4% 3.0% 1.7% 13.7% 5.5% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 0.7% 2.0% 3.5% 0.9% 1.8% 3.9% 3.3% 2.7% 10.9% 27 HISTORICAL DATA US HOUSING START GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1.1% 1.6% -3.4% -9.3% -7.9% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 -10.3% -14.1% 0.3% 12.4% 10.3% 2.4% 0.7% 4.2% 4.7% 5.4% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008 2009 -1.5% -1.2% 4.3% 7.4% 7.1% 5.8% -3.8% -17.1% FY 2006 and prior from U.S. Bureau of Census. * FY 2007 estimate and after from Global Insight, Second Quarter 2007, Trend Forecast. 2004 2006 2007 2005 0.16 15.0% 0.15 0.14 10.0% 0.1 0.12 5.0% 0.05 0.1 0.0% 0 0.08 -5.0% -0.05 0.06 -10.0% -0.1 0.04 -15.0% -0.15 0.02 -20.0% -0.2 0 1972 1985 1985 1986 1974 1986 1987 1987 1976 1988 1988 1988 1978 1989 1989 1990 1980 1990 1991 1991 1991 1982 1992 1992 1984 1993 1993 1994 1986 1994 1995 1995 1988 1995 1996 1996 1996 1997 1990 1997 1997 1998 1998 1992 1999 1998 1999 1994 2000 1999 2000 2001 1996 2000 2001 2002 2001 2002 1998 2003 2002 2003 2004 2000 2003 2004 2005 2002 2004 2005 2006 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Fiscal FiscalYear Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2007 Historical Min. Max. Mean -17.1% 7.4% -0.1% -17.1% 7.4% 1.1% -17.1% 12.4% 0.0% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 10.5% -11.8% 7.3% 7.5% -5.2% 7.1% 7.6% -10.1% 7.3% 28 HISTORICAL DATA SKY HARBOR PASSENGER TRAFFIC GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 3.6% 8.4% 12.2% 8.4% 2.4% 5.7% 12.2% 16.1% 18.7% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 5.0% -2.8% 6.8% 13.9% 20.6% 24.8% 19.6% 14.8% 10.9% 8.1% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 6.4% 3.4% 0.9% 3.3% 7.7% 8.6% 8.9% 4.8% 2.2% 4.6% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008 2009 6.5% 2.7% -0.7% 2.8% 5.4% 4.9% 2.4% 1.8% * Historical data FY 2006 and prior obtained from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. FY 2007 and after ADOT staff estimates. Fiscal Fiscal Year Year 2004 2006 20072007 2004 2005 19791990 1980 1980 1980 1991 19811982 1982 1982 1992 1983 1983 1984 1984 19841993 19851994 1985 1986 19861986 19871995 1987 1988 1988 1996 19891988 1989 1990 1997 1990 19911990 19911998 1992 19931992 1992 19931999 1994 19952000 1994 1994 1995 1996 19972001 19961996 19972002 1998 1999 1998 1998 2003 1999 2000 2001 2004 2000 2000 2002 2001 2003 2005 2002 2004 2003 20052002 2006 -5.0% -0.05 0 19771989 1978 1978 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.1 0.16 30.0% 0.3 0.12 0.05 0.14 25.0% 0.25 0.1 0.12 0 20.0% 0.2 0.08 0.1 -0.05 15.0% 0.15 0.06 0.08 -0.1 10.0% 0.1 0.04 0.06 -0.15 0.02 5.0% 0.05 0.04 -0.2 00 0.0% 0.02 1972 1972 19711985 1972 1971 19741986 1974 1973 1974 1973 1987 1975 1976 19751976 1988 Percent Percent Change Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Fiscal FiscalYear Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2007 Historical Min. Max. Mean 1.8% 5.4% 3.5% -0.7% 6.5% 3.3% -2.8% 24.8% 7.7% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 1.6% 2.0% 5.2% 2.1% 1.5% 5.5% 6.3% 2.0% 17.2% 29 HISTORICAL DATA - MARICOPA COUNTY TOTAL NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 5.5% 5.5% 4.9% 6.8% 5.8% 5.1% 8.6% 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 7.8% 5.9% 8.5% 11.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.5% 6.9% 11.1% 11.8% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 6.9% 3.4% 1.5% 2.9% 8.6% 10.2% 6.9% 4.1% 4.7% 4.1% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 3.0% 5.8% 6.9% 7.2% 6.3% 5.4% 5.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008 2009 4.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.7% 2.7% 5.1% 6.1% 2.1% FY 2006 and prior from Bureau of Labor Statistics. FY 07 and after ADOT staff estimates. 2005 2007 1999 2001 2003 1995 1997 1989 1991 1993 1983 1985 1987 1977 1979 1981 1973 1975 1967 1969 1971 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 1963 1965 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period September 2007 Historical Min. Max. Mean 0.7% 6.1% 3.3% 0.6% 6.1% 3.4% 0.0% 11.8% 5.2% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 2.2% 1.3% 5.7% 2.0% 0.7% 5.5% 3.0% 0.8% 8.6% 30