Arizona Department of Transportation MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX Forecasting Process & Results FY 2007-2026 Financial Management Services November 2006 MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES Introduction In 1985, the voters of Maricopa County approved Proposition 300 to establish a onehalf cent transportation excise (sales) tax for construction of a regional freeway system within the county. The half cent sales tax was approved for a period of 20 years and ended on December 31, 2005. On November 2, 2004, Maricopa County’s voters approved Proposition 400 which extended the one-half cent sales tax for another 20 years through December 31, 2025. The sales tax extension will be used for construction of new freeways, widening of existing freeways and highways, improvements to the arterial street system, regional bus service and other special transportation services, and high capacity transit services such as light rail, bus rapid transit and express buses. This document contains the official forecast of expected values for the Maricopa County Transportation Excise Tax for the period FY 2007-2026 developed by the Arizona Department of Transportation in cooperation with the Maricopa Association of Governments, Valley Metro and Valley Metro Rail. Background Since 1986, the Arizona Department of Transportation (the Department) has used a comprehensive regression-based econometric model to estimate Transportation Excise Tax revenues for Maricopa County. These revenues, which flow into the Regional Area Road Fund (RARF), are the major funding source for the Maricopa County Freeway Program. The revenue forecast is highly dependent on estimates of independent variables. In order to deal with variability between estimated and actual values, the Department introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies on probability analysis and the independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. The process results in a series of forecasts, with specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate. Enhanced forecasting accuracy was achieved in July 1996, when Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB) working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State University, incorporated economic data and independent variables which were not included in the 1986 model. November 2006 1 In September 2005, the Department had HDR/HLB re-examine the structure of the RARF modal and re-evaluate the set of explanatory variables used in the production of the RARF revenue forecasts. Three new variables (U. S. Housing Starts, Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic and Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment Growth) were added to the existing list of variables used in the RARF regression equations. The independent variables contained in the updated model are: • • • • • • • • Maricopa County real income growth per capita Maricopa County population growth Maricopa County construction employment growth U. S. housing start growth Sky Harbor passenger traffic growth Maricopa County total non- farm employment growth Phoenix Consumer Price Index (CPI) Prime interest rate. Risk Analysis Panel The Risk Analysis Process (RAP) relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economists to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In September 2006, an expert panel of thirteen economists represent ing public, private, and academic sectors provided their individual estimates of the model’s independent variables and comments on the future economic outlook. Model Results The September 2006 RAP panel inputs produced a mean forecast of $14,994.5 million for the period FY 2007-2026 with a compound growth rate (CGR) of 6.6 percent. The FY 2007-2026 Official Forecast totals $14,843.0 million with a compound growth rate of 6.5 percent. The FY 2007-2026 Official Forecast is $784.7 million higher than last year’s forecast, due mainly to the higher revenue base produced by a 16.0 percent growth in the tax in FY 2006. Because of this higher base, the average compound growth rate for the new forecast is slightly lower than last year. The FY 2007-2026 Official Forecast incorporates the 50 percent confidence interval for each year of the forecast. The FY 2007 forecast of $397.1 million was developed in July 2006 independently of the econometric model us ing time series techniques, historical and projected growth rates from the model. November 2006 2 Official Forecast Results (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Mean Forecast $397.8 421.2 447.8 477.7 509.8 544.3 581.0 620.1 661.6 705.7 752.5 802.4 855.2 911.2 970.8 1,034.2 1,101.6 1,173.3 1,249.9 776.7 Official Forecast $397.1 418.7 444.6 473.6 505.4 539.3 576.3 614.7 655.0 698.2 745.4 793.5 846.0 902.2 960.6 1,022.1 1,088.8 1,159.7 1,234.8 767.1 Total Average CGR $14,994.5 6.6% $14,843.0 6.5% Confidence Level N/A 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Note: Amount in current dollars. Totals may not add due to individual rounding. November 2006 3 For comparison purposes, the November 2005 and 2006 Official Forecasts are shown below: FY 2007 Comparative Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Nov. 05 Official Forecast $365.5 387.1 412.0 439.2 467.8 499.7 533.8 570.7 609.9 652.7 698.1 746.7 798.5 855.1 916.2 978.3 1,050.2 1,121.8 1,203.2 751.8 Nov. 06 Official Forecast $397.1 $418.7 $444.6 $473.6 $505.4 $539.3 $576.3 $614.7 $655.0 $698.2 $745.4 $793.5 $846.0 $902.2 $960.6 $1,022.1 $1,088.8 $1,159.7 $1,234.8 $767.1 Total Average CGR $14,058.3 6.9% $14,843.0 6.5% Difference $31.6 31.6 32.6 34.4 37.6 39.6 42.5 44.0 45.1 45.5 47.3 46.8 47.5 47.1 44.4 43.8 38.6 37.9 31.6 15.3 $784.7 Note: Amount in current dollars. Totals may not add due to individual rounding. November 2006 4 Summary The FY 2007-2026 Official Forecast totals $14,843.0 million, an increase of $784.7 million over last year’s forecast. The $784.7 million increase in revenue reflects the RAP panel members more optimistic view of Maricopa County Real Per Capita Income, Population, NonFarm Employment and Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic growth along with lower growth for the Phoenix CPI compared to last year panel’s forecast. However, the RAP panel members forecasted lower Construction Employment Growth and Housing Starts until FY 2010 and then increases thereafter. The prime rate estimate for the FY 2007-2026 forecast period is expected to be higher than last year’s forecast. FY 2007 revenues are expected to continue to increase due to the strength in Maricopa County employment and population growth. Furthermore, the continued growth in the commercial construction will help offset the slower residential housing market. Supplementary Information The remainder of this report presents supplementary information on the RAP model, the values of the independent variables forecast by the expert panel, and detailed results of the Risk Analysis Process. November 2006 5 RARF Official Revenue Forecast With Category Detail by Fiscal Year (Current Dollars in Millions) Rental Rental Contracting Utilities Restaurant/ Real Personal Bar Property Property $71.9 $25.7 $32.8 $35.2 $14.8 Fiscal Year Retail 2007 $196.0 2008 211.0 226.3 241.8 66.8 66.5 68.7 26.0 27.1 28.1 35.2 37.8 40.5 40.9 45.2 50.0 50.0 258.5 276.0 295.2 314.7 334.6 356.4 $2,710.5 71.7 75.4 75.4 79.7 84.1 89.1 89.1 93.9 $932.3 29.2 30.3 31.5 32.8 34.0 35.3 $300.0 43.5 46.6 50.0 49.9 53.5 57.4 61.3 $508.5 54.8 60.0 65.5 71.4 77.8 84.9 $635.7 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total: 07-16 Other Total $20.7 $397.1 16.4 17.7 19.0 22.4 24.0 25.5 418.7 444.6 473.6 20.5 21.9 23.5 25.2 26.9 28.8 $214.7 27.2 29.1 31.0 33.0 35.2 35.2 37.6 $320.9 505.4 539.3 576.3 614.7 655.0 698.2 $5,322.9 Note: Totals may not add due to individual rounding. November 2006 6 November 2006 RARF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year Mean 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 $397.8 $421.2 $447.8 $477.7 $509.8 $544.3 $581.0 $620.1 $661.6 $705.7 $752.5 $802.4 $855.2 $911.2 $970.8 $1,034.2 $1,101.6 $1,173.3 $1,249.9 $1,331.5 $419.0 $455.8 $493.0 $530.9 $571.9 $614.2 $658.6 $706.3 $755.8 $808.8 $863.8 $925.5 $988.2 $1,054.7 $1,127.4 $1,201.9 $1,280.6 $1,367.2 $1,459.4 $1,561.1 $411.0 $443.0 $476.1 $512.2 $549.3 $589.0 $630.6 $674.3 $720.2 $770.2 $823.1 $878.0 $937.0 $1,000.2 $1,064.7 $1,137.4 $1,211.4 $1,290.3 $1,378.0 $1,471.5 $405.4 $433.7 $464.4 $497.4 $532.1 $569.7 $608.2 $649.2 $693.4 $741.2 $790.9 $845.0 $902.0 $959.3 $1,023.7 $1,090.5 $1,162.1 $1,237.5 $1,319.9 $1,404.7 $400.8 $425.6 $453.4 $484.6 $517.7 $552.3 $590.1 $631.0 $674.6 $719.8 $766.8 $816.6 $871.9 $928.8 $989.1 $1,053.1 $1,122.3 $1,193.3 $1,272.1 $1,355.5 $396.6 $418.7 $444.6 $473.6 $505.4 $539.3 $576.3 $614.7 $655.0 $698.2 $745.4 $793.5 $846.0 $902.2 $960.6 $1,022.1 $1,088.8 $1,159.7 $1,234.8 $1,315.0 $392.6 $412.3 $436.4 $464.2 $494.0 $525.8 $560.1 $597.6 $636.3 $678.6 $723.4 $770.4 $821.4 $873.7 $931.5 $991.6 $1,056.8 $1,125.4 $1,197.9 $1,274.8 $388.5 $406.0 $427.8 $453.1 $481.8 $513.1 $546.0 $581.8 $618.8 $658.7 $701.5 $747.6 $797.1 $848.4 $903.5 $962.7 $1,022.9 $1,089.9 $1,159.4 $1,233.2 $384.2 $398.8 $418.5 $443.1 $469.6 $499.9 $531.2 $565.6 $601.5 $639.9 $681.0 $724.9 $770.8 $821.4 $872.9 $927.0 $987.2 $1,050.4 $1,117.0 $1,190.5 $378.7 $390.0 $407.7 $429.4 $453.9 $480.8 $510.9 $542.2 $576.4 $614.3 $652.6 $694.3 $738.0 $785.3 $835.7 $886.1 $942.5 $1,003.9 $1,066.0 $1,133.3 7 RARF Official Revenue Forecast Revenue Distribution (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 /2 TOTALS Regional Area Road Fund (RARF) /1 Freeways Arterial Streets (56.2%) (10.5 %) $223.2 $41.7 235.3 44.0 249.9 46.7 266.2 49.7 284.0 53.1 303.1 56.6 323.9 56.0 345.5 59.9 368.1 68.8 392.4 73.3 418.9 78.3 445.9 83.3 475.5 88.8 507.0 90.9 539.8 100.9 574.4 107.3 611.9 114.3 651.7 121.8 694.0 129.7 431.1 80.5 $8,341.8 $1,545.5 Public Transportation Fund (33.3%) $132.2 139.4 148.1 157.7 168.3 179.6 196.4 209.3 218.1 232.5 248.2 264.2 281.7 304.3 319.9 340.4 362.6 386.2 411.2 255.4 $4,955.7 Total $397.1 418.7 444.6 473.6 505.4 539.3 576.3 614.7 655.0 698.2 745.4 793.5 846.0 902.2 960.6 1,022.1 1,088.8 1,159.7 1,234.8 767.1 $14,843.0 Note: 1/ In FY 2005, $7.7 million was transferred from RARF to the RPTA for transit costs. This transfer amount is adjusted annually by the GDP price deflator. Beginning July 1, 2005, this transfer from RARF will be divided equally between MAG and the Public Transportation Fund for planning and administrating the regional transportation plan. 2/ Reflects the end of the one-half cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025. Totals may not add due to rounding. Distribution Per Laws 2004, Chapter 2 (HB 2456), the sales tax extension will be distributed as follows: 1. 56.2 percent to the Regional Area Road (RARF) fund for freeways and other routes in the state highway systems, including capital expense and maintenance. 2. 10.5 percent to the RARF fund for major arterial streets and intersection improvements, including capital expense and implementation studies. 3. 33.3 percent to the public transportation fund for: (a). Capital costs, maintenance and operation of public transportation classifications. (b). Capital costs and utility relocation costs associated with a light rail public transit system. November 2006 8 Official Forecast Results (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 /1 Total Mean Forecast $397.8 421.2 447.8 477.7 509.8 544.3 581.0 620.1 661.6 705.7 752.5 802.4 855.2 911.2 970.8 1,034.2 1,101.6 1,173.3 1,249.9 776.7 $14,994.5 Official Forecast $397.1 418.7 444.6 473.6 505.4 539.3 576.3 614.7 655.0 698.2 745.4 793.5 846.0 902.2 960.6 1,022.1 1,088.8 1,159.7 1,234.8 767.1 $14,843.0 80% Conf. 20% Conf. Interval Interval $384.2 $411.0 398.8 443.0 418.5 476.1 443.1 512.2 469.6 549.3 499.9 589.0 531.2 630.6 565.6 674.3 601.5 720.2 639.9 770.2 681.0 823.1 724.9 878.0 770.8 937.0 821.4 1,000.2 872.9 1,064.7 927.0 1,137.4 987.2 1,211.4 1,050.4 1,290.3 1,117.0 1,378.0 694.4 858.4 $13,599.6 $16,354.2 Note: 1/ FY 2026 totals are adjusted to reflect the transportation excise tax expiration on December 31, 2025. Totals may not add due to individual rounding. Millions of Current Dollars $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Fiscal Year Mean Fcst November 2006 Official Fcst 80% Conf. Interval 20% Conf. Interval 9 Maricopa County Real Income 3.0% Growth Rate 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Maricopa County Population 4.0% Growth Rate 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 3 2.0% 1.5% 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Fiscal Year Median November 2006 Lower 10% Upper 10% 10 Maricopa County Construction Employment 8.0% Growth Rate 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2023 2025 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Prime Interest Rate 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% Rate 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Fiscal Year Median November 2006 Lower 10% Upper 10% 11 Phoenix CPI 5.0% Growth Rate 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% U.S. Housing Start 3.0% Growth Rate 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Fiscal Year Median November 2006 Lower 10% Upper 10% 12 Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic 8.0% 7.0% Growth Rate 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2023 2025 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment 6.0% Growth Rate 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Fiscal Year Median November 2006 Lower 10% Upper 10% 13 Mean Panelist Data Values Real Construction Prime U. S. Sky Harbor Total Non-Farm Income Population Employment Interest Phoenix Housing Passenger Employment Growth /1 Growth /1 Growth /1 Rate CPI Growth Start Growth Traffic Growth Growth /1 FY 2007 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2008 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2009 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2010 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2011 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2016 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2021 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2026 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2.72% 1.26% 1.98% 3.50% 2.69% 3.08% 5.64% -0.90% 2.89% 8.45% 6.65% 7.58% 3.64% 2.17% 2.96% 0.73% -8.92% -4.00% 5.99% 2.33% 4.27% 5.33% 2.55% 4.00% 2.53% 0.85% 1.65% 3.61% 2.59% 3.10% 4.77% -3.26% 0.77% 8.59% 6.45% 7.54% 3.60% 1.99% 2.86% 0.82% -7.45% -3.44% 6.22% 2.10% 4.20% 5.20% 2.22% 3.64% 2.65% 0.79% 1.62% 3.40% 2.48% 2.97% 5.32% -2.25% 2.41% 8.75% 6.31% 7.55% 3.63% 1.93% 2.81% 2.84% -4.77% -0.05% 6.29% 2.08% 4.21% 5.19% 1.92% 3.51% 2.67% 0.76% 1.59% 3.35% 2.35% 2.92% 6.26% -0.88% 3.18% 8.93% 6.13% 7.43% 3.62% 1.84% 2.68% 4.70% -3.15% 1.19% 6.32% 1.98% 4.22% 5.16% 1.75% 3.47% 2.70% 0.55% 1.55% 3.29% 2.27% 2.81% 6.33% -0.73% 3.30% 8.95% 6.02% 7.43% 3.65% 1.83% 2.63% 5.15% -2.47% 2.04% 6.43% 1.96% 4.18% 5.33% 1.65% 3.52% 2.69% 0.39% 1.56% 3.19% 1.96% 2.58% 6.46% -1.17% 3.04% 9.14% 5.70% 7.38% 3.80% 1.66% 2.58% 5.60% -2.01% 2.11% 6.55% 1.81% 4.13% 5.48% 1.44% 3.49% 2.70% 0.31% 1.44% 3.05% 1.69% 2.36% 6.77% -1.51% 3.01% 9.42% 5.56% 7.46% 4.10% 1.53% 2.56% 5.65% -2.37% 2.00% 6.73% 1.63% 4.08% 5.45% 1.21% 3.40% 2.79% 0.31% 1.47% 3.04% 1.54% 2.22% 7.20% -1.41% 2.96% 9.82% 5.23% 7.39% 4.45% 1.47% 2.58% 6.31% -2.58% 2.21% 7.04% 1.41% 4.06% 5.44% 0.98% 3.31% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates with the exception of prime rates which are nominal rates. /1 Data for Maricopa County November 2006 14 Per Capita Income Growth Rate 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 1.90% 1.10% 1.70% 2.10% 1.00% 1.60% 2.20% 1.00% 1.50% 2.50% 1.00% 1.70% 2.60% 1.00% 2.00% 2.80% 0.90% 2.10% 3.00% 0.90% 2.10% 3.10% 0.80% 2.20% 3.60% 1.90% 2.40% 3.00% 1.10% 1.70% 3.50% 1.40% 2.10% 3.70% 1.60% 2.30% 3.70% 1.30% 2.10% 3.50% 1.00% 1.80% 3.20% 0.50% 1.30% 3.40% 0.70% 1.50% 2.90% 1.30% 2.20% 3.10% 1.40% 2.40% 3.20% 1.50% 2.20% 3.10% 1.40% 2.20% 2.80% 1.30% 2.10% 2.80% 1.00% 1.80% 2.50% 0.50% 1.60% 2.50% 0.50% 1.50% 3.30% 1.80% 2.70% 3.30% 1.40% 2.40% 3.30% 1.00% 2.20% 3.30% 0.80% 1.80% 3.50% 0.60% 1.50% 3.50% 0.00% 1.50% 3.50% 0.00% 1.50% 3.50% 0.00% 1.50% 2.00% 1.30% 1.70% 2.20% 1.40% 1.80% 2.20% 1.40% 1.80% 2.20% 1.40% 1.80% 1.90% 1.20% 1.60% 1.90% 1.20% 1.60% 1.90% 1.10% 1.50% 1.90% 1.10% 1.50% 3.18% 1.62% 2.40% 2.48% 0.92% 1.70% 2.88% 1.32% 2.10% 3.08% 1.52% 2.30% 3.70% 0.50% 2.10% 3.40% 0.20% 1.80% 2.90% 3.10% -0.30% -0.10% 1.30% 1.50% 2.60% 0.90% 1.80% 2.70% 0.40% 1.60% 2.70% 0.00% 1.50% 2.80% 2.80% 3.00% 3.30% 3.50% -0.30% -0.50% -1.00% -1.30% -1.50% 1.40% 1.20% 1.10% 1.00% 1.00% 1.70% 1.30% 1.50% 2.00% 1.40% 1.70% 2.20% 1.20% 1.70% 2.20% 1.20% 1.70% 2.20% 1.20% 1.70% 2.20% 1.20% 1.70% 2.20% 1.20% 1.70% 2.20% 1.20% 1.70% 2.50% 0.50% 1.50% 3.00% 0.50% 1.50% 3.50% 0.70% 1.80% 3.50% 1.00% 2.00% 3.50% 0.50% 1.90% 3.00% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 0.00% 1.50% Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9/1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2.50% 1.60% 2.00% 2.30% 1.20% 1.80% 2.30% 0.50% 1.20% 2.00% 0.00% 0.50% 2.00% 0.00% 0.50% 2.50% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.50% 2.00% 3.00% 1.50% 2.00% Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 3.10% 0.90% 2.00% 3.00% 0.80% 1.90% 2.95% 0.75% 1.85% 3.00% 0.80% 1.90% 3.00% 0.80% 1.90% 3.00% 0.60% 1.80% 3.15% 0.35% 1.75% 3.30% 0.10% 1.70% 3.39% 1.16% 0.90% 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% 0.74% 0.94% 0.89% -1.34% -1.34% -1.34% -1.34% -1.37% -0.76% -0.56% 1.80% -0.25% -0.50% -0.50% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. /1 Not Available November 2006 15 Maricopa County Population Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 /1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 3.50% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 2.00% 2.90% 3.40% 2.00% 2.90% 3.30% 1.90% 2.80% 3.30% 1.90% 2.80% 3.50% 1.80% 2.70% 3.50% 1.80% 2.70% 3.50% 1.80% 2.70% 3.30% 2.80% 3.00% 3.30% 2.80% 3.50% 3.30% 2.80% 2.80% 3.30% 2.80% 2.70% 3.30% 2.80% 2.60% 3.30% 2.80% 2.20% 3.30% 2.80% 1.90% 3.30% 2.80% 1.60% 3.70% 2.60% 3.10% 3.60% 2.80% 3.30% 3.60% 2.80% 3.30% 3.60% 2.50% 3.30% 3.60% 2.40% 3.30% 3.50% 2.00% 2.90% 3.00% 1.50% 2.50% 3.00% 1.00% 2.20% 3.60% 2.80% 3.20% 3.60% 2.70% 3.10% 3.40% 2.60% 3.00% 3.40% 2.40% 3.00% 3.40% 2.40% 3.00% 3.30% 2.00% 2.80% 3.00% 1.80% 2.60% 3.00% 1.50% 2.40% 3.30% 2.70% 3.00% 3.30% 2.70% 3.00% 3.30% 2.70% 3.00% 3.30% 2.70% 3.00% 3.30% 2.70% 3.00% 3.30% 2.70% 3.00% 3.30% 2.70% 3.00% 3.30% 2.70% 3.00% 3.74% 2.26% 3.00% 3.64% 2.16% 2.90% 3.54% 2.06% 2.80% 3.44% 1.96% 2.70% 3.34% 1.86% 2.60% 2.94% 1.46% 2.20% 2.64% 1.16% 1.90% 2.34% 0.86% 1.60% 3.60% 2.90% 3.30% 3.80% 2.70% 3.00% 3.50% 2.50% 2.90% 3.30% 2.20% 2.70% 3.20% 2.10% 2.60% 3.30% 1.80% 2.50% 3.30% 1.50% 2.40% 3.40% 1.40% 2.20% 3.30% 2.70% 3.00% 3.50% 2.50% 3.00% 3.40% 2.40% 2.90% 3.40% 2.40% 2.90% 3.40% 2.40% 2.80% 3.00% 2.00% 2.50% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 3.44% 2.80% 3.00% 3.94% 2.80% 3.00% 3.50% 2.80% 3.10% 3.50% 2.26% 3.10% 3.30% 2.16% 2.70% 3.20% 1.48% 2.50% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.44% 2.84% 3.00% 4.00% 2.75% 3.25% 3.02% 2.42% 3.00% 2.93% 2.33% 3.00% 3.00% 1.94% 2.75% 3.00% 1.94% 2.75% 3.00% 1.94% 2.75% 3.00% 1.93% 2.75% 3.50% 2.56% 3.20% 3.50% 2.40% 3.00% 3.30% 2.00% 2.80% 3.20% 2.00% 2.70% 3.00% 2.00% 2.60% 2.50% 1.48% 2.20% 2.50% 1.00% 2.00% 2.50% 0.80% 1.80% 3.60% 2.80% 3.20% 3.60% 2.80% 3.20% 3.50% 2.70% 3.10% 3.50% 2.70% 3.10% 3.40% 2.60% 3.00% 3.45% 2.05% 2.75% 3.60% 1.60% 2.60% 3.60% 1.20% 2.40% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. /1 Not Available November 2006 16 Maricopa County Construction Employment Growth Rate 2007 2008 2009 2010 Panelist 1 Upper 10% 5.00% 5.00% 6.00% 6.00% Lower 10% -0.50% -0.50% -1.00% -1.00% Median 2.50% 2.00% 2.10% 2.10% Panelist 2 Upper 10% 3.70% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% Lower 10% -0.80% -2.10% -2.30% -2.00% Median 2.70% 1.50% 1.50% 2.00% Panelist 3 Upper 10% 9.00% 9.00% 8.00% 12.00% Lower 10% 3.00% 1.50% 0.00% 3.00% Median 7.50% 6.50% 5.00% 9.00% Panelist 4 Upper 10% 8.00% 5.00% 8.00% 10.00% Lower 10% -5.00% -10.00% -5.00% -5.00% Median 3.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% Panelist 5 Upper 10% 9.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% Lower 10% 2.00% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% Median 6.00% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% Panelist 6 Upper 10% 5.00% 6.00% 5.00% 5.00% Lower 10% -10.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% Median -5.00% -7.00% 5.00% 2.50% Panelist 7 Upper 10% 6.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.50% Lower 10% 2.00% 1.80% 1.50% 1.30% Median 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.00% Panelist 8 Upper 10% 5.00% 6.00% 4.00% 4.00% Lower 10% -2.00% -3.00% 0.00% 0.00% Median 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% Panelist 9 /1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% 4.50% 2.00% 5.00% 4.98% Lower 10% 1.00% -2.50% -2.50% -0.98% Median 3.50% -0.50% 2.00% 3.00% Panelist 11 Upper 10% 7.69% 5.70% 4.80% 6.08% Lower 10% -2.31% -4.30% -5.20% -3.92% Median 2.69% 0.70% -0.20% 1.08% Panelist 12 Upper 10% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% Lower 10% 1.00% -0.50% -1.00% 2.50% Median 3.00% 0.00% 2.00% 3.00% Panelist 13 Upper 10% 0.80% 0.00% 3.00% 5.00% Lower 10% 0.80% -6.00% -3.00% -1.00% Median 3.80% -3.00% 0.00% 2.00% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. /1 Not Available November 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 6.00% -1.00% 2.10% 7.00% -1.00% 2.40% 8.00% -4.00% 2.40% 9.00% -6.00% 2.40% 4.20% -2.10% 2.00% 4.50% -2.20% 2.00% 5.00% -2.30% 2.00% 5.00% -2.40% 2.00% 10.00% 2.00% 7.00% 8.00% 2.00% 6.00% 8.00% 1.50% 6.00% 7.00% 1.50% 5.00% 10.00% -5.00% 3.00% 10.00% -5.00% 3.00% 10.00% -5.00% 3.00% 10.00% -5.00% 3.00% 7.00% 1.50% 5.50% 7.00% 1.50% 5.50% 7.00% 1.50% 5.50% 7.00% 1.50% 5.50% 6.00% -5.00% 2.00% 7.00% -5.00% 2.00% 8.00% -5.00% 2.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2.00% 8.00% 1.10% 3.75% 8.50% -1.00% 3.50% 9.00% -1.00% 3.50% 10.00% -1.50% 3.50% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.98% -0.98% 2.50% 5.00% -1.00% 2.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2.00% 5.33% -1.67% 3.33% 5.38% -1.62% 3.38% 5.10% -1.90% 3.10% 5.66% -1.34% 3.66% 5.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 1.00% 2.50% 5.00% 1.00% 2.50% 5.00% 1.00% 2.50% 5.40% -0.60% 2.40% 6.10% -1.70% 2.20% 7.10% -2.90% 2.10% 8.70% -4.70% 2.00% 17 Prime Interest Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 /1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 8.80% 6.50% 7.50% 9.00% 6.50% 7.50% 9.20% 6.30% 7.50% 9.50% 6.00% 7.50% 9.60% 6.00% 7.50% 9.70% 5.00% 7.50% 10.00% 5.00% 7.50% 10.00% 5.00% 7.50% 8.20% 7.20% 7.80% 8.30% 7.10% 7.80% 8.60% 7.20% 8.00% 8.80% 7.20% 8.20% 8.90% 7.30% 8.30% 9.10% 6.80% 8.30% 9.30% 6.30% 8.30% 10.00% 5.80% 8.30% 8.50% 6.50% 7.80% 8.50% 6.50% 7.50% 8.00% 6.00% 7.00% 9.00% 5.50% 6.50% 9.00% 5.50% 6.50% 8.50% 5.50% 7.00% 8.50% 5.50% 7.00% 8.50% 5.50% 7.00% 8.00% 7.00% 7.60% 8.50% 6.25% 7.50% 9.00% 6.00% 7.50% 9.00% 6.00% 7.50% 9.00% 5.50% 7.50% 10.00% 5.50% 7.50% 10.00% 5.00% 7.50% 12.00% 5.00% 7.50% 8.00% 7.00% 7.50% 7.50% 6.50% 7.00% 7.50% 6.50% 7.00% 7.50% 6.50% 7.00% 7.50% 6.50% 7.00% 7.50% 6.50% 7.00% 7.50% 6.50% 7.00% 7.50% 6.50% 7.00% 9.22% 6.38% 7.80% 9.22% 6.38% 7.80% 9.42% 6.58% 8.00% 9.62% 6.78% 8.20% 9.72% 6.88% 8.30% 10.20% 6.40% 8.30% 10.66% 5.94% 8.30% 11.48% 5.12% 8.30% 8.50% 7.50% 8.00% 9.00% 6.00% 7.50% 9.50% 4.75% 7.00% 9.75% 4.50% 6.50% 10.00% 4.25% 6.50% 10.50% 4.00% 6.00% 11.00% 3.75% 6.00% 11.50% 3.50% 6.00% 8.00% 7.00% 7.50% 7.50% 6.50% 7.00% 7.50% 6.50% 7.00% 7.50% 6.50% 7.00% 7.50% 6.50% 7.00% 7.50% 6.50% 7.00% 7.50% 6.50% 7.00% 7.50% 6.50% 7.00% 6.50% 5.50% 6.00% 7.50% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 6.00% 7.50% 9.00% 5.50% 7.50% 9.00% 5.00% 7.50% 9.00% 5.00% 7.50% 9.00% 5.00% 7.50% 9.00% 5.00% 7.50% 9.24% 6.44% 7.84% 9.56% 6.76% 8.16% 9.45% 6.65% 8.05% 8.44% 5.64% 7.04% 8.01% 5.21% 6.61% 7.43% 4.63% 6.03% 8.20% 5.40% 6.80% 7.40% 4.60% 6.00% 9.22% 6.38% 7.80% 9.22% 6.38% 7.80% 9.42% 6.58% 8.00% 9.62% 6.78% 8.20% 9.72% 6.88% 8.30% 10.20% 6.40% 8.30% 10.66% 5.94% 8.30% 11.48% 5.12% 8.30% 9.20% 6.40% 7.80% 9.30% 6.50% 7.90% 9.40% 6.60% 8.00% 9.40% 6.60% 8.00% 9.50% 6.70% 8.10% 10.00% 6.20% 8.10% 10.70% 5.90% 8.30% 11.50% 5.10% 8.30% All data in the above table are in nominal rates. /1 Not Available November 2006 18 U. S. Housing Start Growth Rate 2007 Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 /1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2008 2009 -1.00% 0.00% 2.00% -12.00% -10.00% -9.00% -6.00% -4.00% -5.00% 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 2.00% -5.00% -1.00% 4.00% -5.00% 1.00% 6.00% -1.00% 2.00% 6.00% -1.00% 2.00% 6.00% -1.00% 2.00% -1.30% -8.50% -4.90% -0.20% -7.40% -3.80% -1.40% -8.60% -5.00% 1.40% -5.80% -2.20% 2.70% -4.50% -0.90% 5.11% -2.91% 1.10% 3.23% -6.23% -1.50% 8.29% -6.09% 1.10% 1.00% -10.00% -4.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2.00% 8.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 2.00% 7.00% 7.50% 0.00% 5.00% 7.50% 0.00% 4.00% 7.00% 0.00% 4.00% 6.50% 0.00% 4.00% -2.00% -8.50% -5.00% 0.50% 3.00% -10.00% -5.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% -5.00% 0.50% 5.00% -5.00% 1.00% 5.00% -5.00% 1.00% 5.00% -5.00% 1.00% 5.00% -5.00% 1.10% 1.00% -2.50% -2.00% 0.50% -1.50% -1.00% 0.50% -0.50% 0.00% 2.00% 0.50% 1.00% 3.00% 1.50% 2.00% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.50% 2.50% 3.50% 4.50% 2.50% 3.50% 0.43% -6.43% -3.00% -0.57% -7.43% -4.00% 3.43% -3.43% 0.00% 4.43% -2.43% 1.00% 4.93% -1.93% 1.50% 4.43% -2.43% 1.00% 4.43% -2.43% 1.00% 4.43% -2.43% 1.00% 2.00% -5.00% -1.60% 3.00% -3.00% -0.50% 4.00% -2.00% 1.00% 5.00% -2.50% 1.50% 5.20% -3.00% 1.50% 5.50% -3.50% 0.50% 6.00% -4.00% 1.00% 7.00% -5.00% 1.00% 5.00% 5.00% 10.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% -5.00% 5.00% 10.00% -5.00% 5.00% 10.00% -5.00% 5.00% 10.00% -5.00% 5.00% 10.00% -5.00% 5.00% -2.00% -9.00% -5.00% 1.00% -5.00% -2.00% 2.00% -5.00% 0.00% 2.50% -5.00% 1.00% 3.00% -5.00% 1.00% 4.00% -5.00% 0.50% 5.00% -5.00% 0.50% 5.00% -5.00% 0.50% 6.05% -2.45% 2.55% 2.00% 2.00% -11.50% -2.15% -8.00% 1.35% 2.00% -6.50% -3.00% 7.86% 0.86% 4.36% 7.67% 0.67% 4.17% 7.46% 0.46% 3.96% 7.26% 0.26% 3.76% 0.00% -5.00% 0.00% 10.00% -20.00% -15.00% -10.00% 2.00% -10.00% -10.00% 0.00% 5.00% 6.00% 2.00% 4.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 0.50% 2.00% 3.00% 0.50% 2.00% 2.60% -4.60% -1.00% 5.00% -3.00% 1.00% 6.20% -3.20% 1.50% 8.70% -4.70% 1.50% -0.40% -7.60% -4.00% -1.40% -8.60% -5.00% 0.60% -6.60% -3.00% 2.10% -5.10% -1.50% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. /1 Not Available November 2006 19 Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 6.20% 2.00% 4.50% 6.20% 1.90% 4.40% 6.20% 1.90% 4.30% 6.10% 1.90% 4.20% 6.10% 1.80% 4.10% 6.00% 1.70% 4.00% 6.00% 1.70% 4.00% 6.00% 1.70% 4.00% 6.37% 2.23% 4.30% 6.37% 2.23% 4.30% 6.37% 2.23% 4.30% 6.37% 2.23% 4.30% 6.27% 2.13% 4.20% 6.46% 2.20% 4.10% 6.93% 2.20% 4.00% 7.82% 2.30% 4.00% 6.00% 3.00% 5.00% 6.00% 3.00% 5.00% 6.00% 2.50% 4.50% 6.00% 2.50% 4.50% 6.00% 2.50% 4.30% 6.00% 2.50% 4.10% 6.00% 2.50% 4.00% 6.00% 2.50% 4.00% 4.00% 2.80% 3.50% 4.20% 2.30% 3.40% 4.20% 2.23% 3.20% 4.20% 2.00% 3.00% 4.20% 1.80% 3.00% 4.50% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% 1.00% 3.00% 4.50% 0.00% 3.00% 8.00% 1.00% 5.00% 9.00% 2.00% 6.00% 10.00% 3.00% 7.00% 10.00% 3.00% 7.00% 10.00% 3.00% 7.00% 10.00% 3.00% 7.00% 10.00% 3.00% 7.00% 10.00% 3.00% 7.00% 6.37% 2.23% 4.60% 6.37% 2.23% 4.40% 6.37% 2.23% 4.20% 6.37% 2.23% 4.00% 6.27% 2.13% 3.80% 6.46% 1.74% 3.60% 6.93% 1.07% 3.40% 7.82% 0.18% 3.20% 6.00% 2.00% 4.00% 7.00% 1.75% 4.00% 7.30% 1.50% 4.00% 7.50% 1.30% 3.90% 7.50% 1.00% 3.80% 8.00% 0.70% 3.50% 9.00% 0.50% 3.50% 10.00% 0.50% 3.50% 5.50% 3.50% 4.50% 7.00% 3.00% 5.00% 7.00% 3.00% 5.00% 7.00% 3.00% 5.00% 7.00% 3.00% 5.00% 7.00% 3.00% 5.00% 7.00% 3.00% 5.00% 7.00% 3.00% 5.00% 6.50% 3.50% 4.50% 6.50% 3.00% 4.50% 6.50% 2.50% 4.50% 6.50% 2.00% 4.50% 7.00% 2.00% 4.25% 7.00% 2.00% 4.00% 7.00% 2.00% 4.00% 7.00% 2.00% 4.00% 5.50% 0.50% 3.00% 4.50% -0.50% 2.00% 5.00% 0.50% 3.00% 5.50% 1.50% 4.00% 5.50% 1.00% 3.50% 5.30% 0.80% 3.30% 5.00% 0.50% 3.00% 5.00% 0.50% 3.00% 5.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 1.00% 2.00% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 5.00% 1.00% 3.00% 5.50% 1.00% 4.00% 5.50% 1.00% 4.00% 5.50% 1.00% 4.00% 6.40% 2.20% 4.30% 6.50% 2.30% 4.40% 6.60% 2.40% 4.50% 6.30% 2.10% 4.20% 6.30% 2.10% 4.20% 6.40% 1.60% 4.00% 6.90% 1.10% 4.00% 7.80% 0.20% 4.00% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. /1 Not Available November 2006 20 Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 /1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 5.60% 1.60% 3.50% 5.50% 1.60% 3.50% 5.60% 1.30% 3.60% 5.70% 1.20% 3.60% 5.70% 1.20% 3.60% 5.70% 0.80% 3.40% 5.50% 0.80% 3.30% 5.30% 0.70% 3.20% 4.20% 2.60% 3.70% 4.10% 2.40% 3.50% 4.00% 1.90% 3.20% 4.00% 1.80% 3.00% 4.10% 1.60% 2.80% 4.90% 2.10% 3.20% 4.90% 2.00% 3.00% 5.30% 2.10% 3.10% 6.00% 3.50% 5.00% 6.00% 3.50% 4.50% 6.50% 3.50% 5.00% 7.50% 3.50% 6.00% 7.50% 3.00% 5.50% 6.00% 2.50% 4.50% 5.50% 2.00% 4.00% 5.50% 1.00% 3.50% 5.50% 3.00% 4.20% 5.50% 1.47% 3.80% 5.50% 1.17% 3.50% 5.50% 1.20% 3.20% 5.00% 1.00% 3.20% 5.52% 0.50% 3.00% 5.50% 0.00% 3.00% 5.50% -0.03% 3.00% 6.00% 4.50% 5.00% 6.40% 4.90% 5.40% 6.30% 4.80% 5.30% 6.20% 4.70% 5.20% 6.00% 4.50% 5.00% 6.00% 4.50% 5.00% 6.00% 4.50% 5.00% 6.00% 4.50% 5.00% 5.50% 1.67% 3.60% 5.53% 1.47% 3.30% 5.23% 1.17% 3.10% 5.03% 0.97% 2.90% 4.83% 0.77% 2.80% 5.50% 0.88% 3.00% 5.00% 0.41% 2.70% 4.50% -0.03% 2.50% 6.50% 4.00% 5.00% 5.70% 3.00% 4.00% 6.00% 2.00% 3.50% 6.00% 1.50% 3.50% 6.30% 1.00% 3.40% 6.50% -0.50% 3.00% 7.00% -1.00% 2.90% 7.00% -1.50% 2.80% 5.00% 3.00% 4.00% 4.50% 2.50% 3.50% 4.50% 2.50% 3.50% 4.50% 2.50% 3.50% 4.50% 2.50% 3.50% 4.50% 2.50% 3.50% 4.50% 2.50% 3.50% 4.50% 2.50% 3.50% 4.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% 1.50% 3.00% 5.00% 1.50% 3.00% 5.00% 1.00% 3.00% 5.00% 1.00% 3.00% 6.00% 0.00% 3.00% 6.00% 0.00% 3.00% 6.00% 0.00% 3.00% 5.46% 1.06% 3.26% 4.89% 0.49% 2.69% 4.90% 0.50% 2.70% 5.00% 0.60% 2.80% 5.08% 0.88% 3.08% 4.83% 1.83% 3.33% 4.88% 1.88% 3.38% 4.60% 1.60% 3.10% 4.00% 2.00% 3.50% 4.00% 2.00% 2.70% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 2.00% 0.50% 1.50% 4.50% 1.00% 3.00% 5.00% 1.50% 4.00% 5.00% 1.00% 4.00% 5.00% 1.00% 4.00% 6.20% 2.20% 4.20% 5.80% 1.80% 3.80% 5.70% 1.70% 3.70% 5.50% 1.50% 3.50% 5.40% 1.40% 3.40% 5.30% 0.70% 3.00% 5.60% 0.40% 3.00% 6.10% -0.10% 3.00% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. /1 Not Available November 2006 21 Phoenix CPI Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 /1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 13 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 3.00% 1.60% 2.20% 3.00% 1.40% 2.20% 3.00% 1.40% 2.10% 3.00% 1.40% 2.10% 3.00% 1.40% 2.10% 3.20% 1.30% 2.20% 3.20% 1.30% 2.20% 3.20% 1.30% 2.20% 3.05% 2.00% 2.30% 2.85% 1.70% 2.10% 2.85% 1.60% 2.10% 2.75% 1.50% 2.00% 2.85% 1.60% 2.10% 3.07% 1.60% 2.20% 3.46% 1.70% 2.30% 3.76% 1.60% 2.40% 4.50% 2.50% 4.00% 4.50% 2.25% 3.80% 4.70% 2.00% 3.80% 4.80% 2.00% 3.50% 5.00% 2.00% 3.00% 5.00% 2.00% 3.00% 5.00% 2.00% 3.00% 5.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 1.80% 2.70% 4.00% 1.50% 2.50% 4.00% 1.20% 2.40% 4.00% 1.10% 2.20% 4.00% 1.00% 2.20% 4.20% 0.80% 2.20% 4.50% 0.40% 2.20% 5.00% 0.20% 2.20% 3.60% 2.80% 3.20% 3.60% 2.80% 3.20% 3.70% 2.90% 3.30% 3.70% 2.90% 3.30% 3.80% 3.00% 3.40% 3.80% 3.00% 3.40% 3.80% 3.00% 3.40% 3.80% 3.00% 3.40% 3.05% 1.55% 2.30% 2.85% 1.35% 2.40% 2.85% 1.35% 2.20% 2.75% 1.25% 2.00% 2.85% 1.35% 2.10% 3.10% 1.33% 2.20% 3.50% 1.14% 2.30% 4.00% 1.04% 2.40% 3.60% 2.60% 3.20% 4.00% 2.40% 3.00% 4.00% 2.10% 2.90% 4.20% 1.80% 2.80% 4.80% 1.80% 2.70% 5.50% 1.50% 2.50% 7.50% 1.00% 2.30% 9.50% 1.00% 2.00% 3.50% 2.50% 3.00% 3.30% 2.30% 2.80% 3.30% 2.30% 2.80% 3.30% 2.30% 2.50% 3.00% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 2.00% 2.50% 3.50% 2.00% 3.00% 3.30% 1.80% 2.80% 3.20% 1.80% 2.50% 3.30% 1.80% 2.50% 3.30% 1.80% 2.50% 3.50% 1.80% 2.50% 3.50% 1.80% 2.50% 3.76% 1.80% 2.50% 4.59% 2.89% 3.59% 4.74% 3.04% 3.74% 5.26% 3.56% 4.26% 5.09% 3.39% 4.09% 4.95% 3.25% 3.95% 5.10% 2.00% 3.60% 5.50% 2.00% 3.40% 6.00% 2.00% 3.87% 3.50% 1.55% 3.00% 3.50% 1.35% 3.00% 3.50% 1.35% 3.00% 3.50% 1.25% 3.00% 3.20% 1.35% 2.80% 3.00% 1.33% 2.50% 3.00% 1.14% 2.50% 3.00% 1.04% 2.50% 3.80% 2.20% 3.00% 3.60% 2.00% 2.80% 3.20% 1.60% 2.40% 3.00% 1.40% 2.20% 3.00% 1.40% 2.20% 3.10% 1.30% 2.20% 3.30% 0.90% 2.10% 3.40% 0.60% 2.00% All data in the above table are in percentage growth rates. /1 Not Available November 2006 22 HISTORICAL DATA GROWTH IN REAL INCOME PER CAPITA Using Phoenix CPI to Measure Inflation (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1.0% -4.6% -3.0% 1.6% 4.2% 3.0% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -0.6% -1.2% -2.5% 0.0% 4.7% 3.1% 2.0% 1.1% 1.3% 0.4% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 0.1% -3.3% -1.9% -0.6% -0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 1.5% 1.1% 2000 2.4% 2001 1.6% 2002 -0.9% 2003 -0.1% 2004 1.3% 2005 1.7% 2006* 2.1% 2007 2008 2009 *Estimate HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Percent Change 6.0% 0.06 0.06 4.0% 0.04 0.04 2.0% 0.02 0.02 0.0% 0 -0.02 -2.0% -0.02 -0.04 -4.0% -0.04 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2001 2002 2000 2003 2004 1999 1998 2000 2001 2002 1979 1980 1978 1980 1981 1981 1982 1980 1982 1983 1983 1984 1982 1984 1985 1986 1985 1984 1986 1987 1988 1987 1986 1988 1989 1990 1988 1990 1991 1992 1991 1990 1992 1993 1994 1993 1992 1994 1996 1995 1995 1994 1996 1997 1998 1997 1996 1998 1999 2000 1978 1977 1976 1978 1979 1975 1976 1974 1977 1976 1972 1975 1973 1974 1974 -0.06 -6.0% -0.06 Fiscal Fiscal Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2006 Historical Min. Max. Mean -0.9% 2.1% 0.8% -0.9% 2.4% 1.1% -4.6% 4.7% 0.5% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 1.3% -0.6% 2.0% 1.0% -0.2% 2.2% 2.1% -2.4% 2.9% 23 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 3.6% 4.7% 5.9% 6.4% 5.2% 3.0% 2.1% 3.9% 4.4% 4.9% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 4.4% 3.0% 2.9% 3.2% 4.4% 5.3% 4.2% 4.5% 2.9% 2.6% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1.4% 3.1% 3.4% 3.8% 4.9% 5.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* 2007 2008 2009 3.1% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 3.2% 3.8% 3.2% FY 2004 and prior from Bureau of Economic Analysis. * FY 2005 to 2006 from Greater Phoenix Blue Chip. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 0.07 Percent Change 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 2005 2006 2003 2004 2001 2002 1999 2000 1997 1998 1995 1996 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1980 1981 1978 1979 1976 1977 1974 1975 1972 1973 1971 1970 0 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2006 Historical Min. Max. Mean 2.9% 3.8% 3.2% 2.9% 3.8% 3.3% 1.4% 6.4% 3.8% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 0.3% 3.0% 3.6% 0.3% 3.1% 3.8% 1.0% 2.9% 5.1% 24 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY GROWTH IN CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 17.3% 17.3% 7.5% -8.1% -14.6% -0.2% 24.5% 31.5% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 16.1% 0.2% -4.7% 0.7% 14.5% 21.0% 13.9% 2.1% -5.6% -7.2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 -7.1% -6.4% -3.6% 2.8% 10.9% 15.0% 7.4% 2.9% 7.5% 8.4% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* 2007 2008 2009 5.8% 4.1% 1.1% 0.4% 6.1% 12.8% 9.8% FY 2004 and prior from Bureau of Economic Analysis. * FY 2005 and 2006 from Greater Phoenix Blue Chip. 1962 1963 1973 1972 1962 1964 1965 1974 1975 1964 1966 1967 1976 1977 1966 1968 1969 1968 1978 1979 1970 1971 1970 1980 1972 1973 1981 1972 1982 1974 1975 1974 1983 -0.1 -10.0% -0.1 -0.2 -20.0% -0.3 -30.0% -0.2 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 0.4 0.7 70.0% 0.6 60.0% 0.3 0.5 50.0% 0.4 40.0% 0.2 0.3 30.0% 0.2 0.1 20.0% 0.1 10.0% 0 0.0% 0 1977 1976 1984 1985 1979 1978 1986 1987 1980 1981 1988 1982 1982 1983 1989 1990 1984 1984 1985 1991 1986 1992 1987 1986 1993 1988 1994 1988 1989 1990 1995 1990 1991 1996 1992 1992 1993 1997 1998 1994 1994 1995 1999 1996 2000 1997 1996 1998 2001 2002 1998 1999 2000 2003 2004 2000 2001 2002 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal FiscalYear Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2006 Historical Min. Max. 0.4% 12.8% 0.4% 12.8% -14.6% 31.5% Mean 6.0% 5.9% 5.8% Std. Dev. 5.4% 3.9% 10.2% 80% Range Lower Upper 0.7% 11.6% 1.0% 10.1% -6.8% 17.3% 25 HISTORICAL DATA PRIME INTEREST RATE HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.8% 5.9% 6.9% 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 8.4% 6.7% 5.4% 6.1% 9.6% 9.8% 7.2% 6.6% 7.7% 10.9% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 15.0% 16.6% 17.5% 12.0% 11.3% 11.4% 9.2% 7.7% 15.0% 10.6% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 10.3% 9.5% 7.2% 6.0% 6.2% 8.4% 8.5% 8.3% 8.5% 8.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* 2007 2008 2009 8.6% 8.7% 5.3% 4.4% 4.0% 5.2% 7.7% FY 2005 and prior from Federal Reserve. FY 2006 and after from Global Insight, First Quarter 2005, Trend Forecast. 2002 2006 2003 2005 2000 2001 2003 2004 1998 1999 2001 2002 1997 1999 1996 2000 1995 1997 1994 1998 1980 1979 1981 1978 1982 1981 1983 1980 1984 1983 1985 1982 1986 1985 1987 1984 1988 1987 1989 1986 1990 1989 1991 1988 1992 1991 1993 1990 1994 1993 1995 1992 1996 1978 1977 1979 1976 1976 1975 1977 1974 1974 1973 1975 1972 1972 1971 1973 1970 1970 1969 1971 1968 1968 1967 1969 1966 1965 1967 1964 1966 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1963 1965 1962 1964 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2006 Historical Min. Max. 4.0% 7.7% 4.0% 8.7% 4.0% 17.5% Mean 5.3% 6.9% 8.4% Std. Dev. 1.4% 1.9% 3.2% 80% Range Lower Upper 4.2% 6.7% 4.4% 8.6% 5.0% 11.9% 26 HISTORICAL DATA PHOENIX CPI GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 6.1% 5.6% 7.6% 11.7% 11.1% 7.7% 7.7% 10.7% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 13.7% 13.6% 10.0% 5.5% 3.5% 4.6% 4.2% 2.9% 3.4% 4.3% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 4.9% 4.7% 3.4% 3.1% 3.6% 4.0% 4.6% 4.9% 4.4% 3.9% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* 2007 2008 2009 3.4% 2.4% 1.8% 1.7% 2.4% 3.3% 3.2% Data were regressed from the U.S. CPI for 1972 through 2005. FY 2006 estimate was regressed from U.S. CPI based on Global Insight, First Quarter 2006, Trend Forecast 2005 2006 2003 2004 2001 2002 1999 2000 1997 1998 1995 1996 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1982 1983 1980 1981 1978 1979 1976 1977 1974 1975 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 1973 1972 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2006 Historical Min. Max. 1.7% 3.3% 1.7% 4.9% 1.7% 13.7% Mean 2.5% 3.1% 5.5% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 0.7% 1.8% 3.3% 1.1% 1.8% 4.4% 3.3% 2.6% 10.9% 27 HISTORICAL DATA US HOUSING START GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1.1% 1.6% -3.4% -9.3% -7.9% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 -10.3% -14.1% 0.3% 12.4% 10.3% 2.4% 0.7% 4.2% 4.7% 5.4% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* 2007 2008 2009 -1.5% -1.2% 4.3% 7.4% 7.1% 5.8% -1.4% FY 2005 and prior from U.S. Bureau of Census. * FY 2006 estimate and after from Global Insight, First Quarter 2006, Trend Forecast. 2004 2006 2005 1991 1991 1982 1992 1992 1984 1993 1993 1994 1986 1994 1995 1988 1995 1996 1996 1990 1997 1997 1998 1992 1998 1999 1994 1999 2000 1996 2000 2001 2001 2002 1998 2002 2003 2000 2003 2004 2002 2004 2005 1990 1980 1990 1986 1974 1974 1987 1976 1976 1988 1978 1989 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.1 0.1 0.12 0.12 0.05 0.05 0.1 0.1 00 0.08 0.08 -0.05 -0.05 0.06 0.06 -0.1 -0.1 0.04 0.04 -0.15 -0.15 0.02 0.02 -0.2 00 -0.2 1972 1972 1985 1985 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Fiscal Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2006 Historical Min. Max. -1.4% 7.4% -1.5% 7.4% -14.1% 12.4% Mean 4.6% 3.5% 0.9% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 3.6% 0.9% 7.3% 3.5% -1.4% 7.1% 6.7% -9.1% 7.4% 28 HISTORICAL DATA SKY HARBOR PASSENGER TRAFFIC GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 3.6% 8.4% 12.2% 8.4% 2.4% 5.7% 12.2% 16.1% 18.7% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 5.0% -2.8% 6.8% 13.9% 20.6% 24.8% 19.6% 14.8% 10.9% 8.1% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 6.4% 3.4% 0.9% 3.3% 7.7% 8.6% 8.9% 4.8% 2.2% 4.6% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* 2007 2008 2009 6.5% 2.7% -0.7% 2.8% 5.4% 4.9% 4.3% * Historical data and FY 2005 estimate obtained from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. FY 2006 and after ADOT staff estimates. 2004 2006 2005 2002 2004 2003 2000 2001 2002 1998 1999 2000 1985 1986 1986 1986 1987 1988 1988 1989 1990 1990 1991 1992 1992 1993 1994 1994 1995 1996 1996 1997 1998 1983 1984 1984 1984 1981 1982 1982 1979 1980 1980 1977 1978 1978 1972 1972 1971 1972 -0.05 00 -0.05 1976 1975 1976 0.16 0.16 0.3 0.3 0.14 0.14 0.25 0.25 0.12 0.12 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.15 0.15 0.08 0.08 0.1 0.1 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 00 0.02 0.02 1974 1973 1974 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Fiscal Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2006 Historical Min. Max. -0.7% 5.4% -0.7% 6.5% -2.8% 24.8% Mean 3.3% 3.8% 8.0% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 2.5% 0.7% 5.2% 2.1% 1.9% 5.5% 6.3% 2.3% 17.4% 29 HISTORICAL DATA - MARICOPA COUNTY TOTAL NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 5.5% 5.5% 4.9% 6.8% 5.8% 5.1% 8.6% 7.8% 5.9% 8.5% 11.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.5% 6.9% 11.1% 11.8% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 6.9% 3.4% 1.5% 2.9% 8.6% 10.2% 6.9% 4.1% 4.7% 4.1% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 3.0% 5.8% 7.0% 7.2% 6.2% 5.4% 5.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* 2007 2008 2009 4.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.7% 2.7% 5.1% 5.1% FY 2005 and prior from Bureau of Labor Statistics. FY 06 ADOT staff estimates. 2004 2006 2005 2001 2002 2002 2003 2004 1974 1975 1984 1976 1977 1978 1979 1986 1980 1981 1988 1982 1983 1984 1990 1985 1986 1987 1992 1988 1989 1990 1994 1991 1992 1993 1996 1994 1995 1996 1998 1997 1998 1999 2000 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.1 0.1 0.08 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02 00 -0.02 -0.02 1974 1974 1963 1962 1976 1976 1965 1964 1967 1966 1978 1968 1969 1980 1970 1971 1972 1973 1982 0.16 0.16 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.1 0.1 0.08 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02 00 1972 1972 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Fiscal YearYear HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2006 Historical Min. Max. 0.6% 5.1% 0.6% 6.2% 0.0% 11.8% Mean 2.8% 3.7% 5.2% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 2.2% 0.6% 5.1% 2.0% 0.7% 5.5% 3.0% 0.7% 8.6% 30