Arizona Department of Transportation MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX Forecasting Process & Results FY 2006-2026 Financial Management Services November 2005 MARICOPA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION EXCISE TAX OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED VALUES as of November 2005 Introduction In 1985, the voters of Maricopa County approved Proposition 300 to establish a onehalf cent transportation excise (sales) tax for construction of a regional freeway system within the county. The half cent sales tax was approved for a period of 20 years and ends on December 31, 2005. On November 2, 2004, Maricopa County’s voters approved Proposition 400 which extends the one-half cent sales tax for another 20 years through December 31, 2025. The sales tax extension will be used for construction of new freeways, widening of existing freeways and highways, improvements to the arterial street system, regional bus service and other special transportation services, and high capacity transit services such as light rail, bus rapid transit and express buses. This document contains the official forecast of expected values for the Maricopa County Transportation Excise Tax for the period FY 2006-2026 developed by the Arizona Department of Transportation in cooperation with the Maricopa Association of Governments, Valley Metro and Valley Metro Rail. Background Since 1986, the Arizona Department of Transportation (the Department) has used a comprehensive regression-based econometric model to estimate Transportation Excise Tax revenues for Maricopa County. These revenues, which flow into the Regional Area Road Fund (RARF), are the major funding source for the Maricopa County Freeway Program. The revenue forecast is highly dependent on estimates of independent variables. In order to deal with variability between estimated and actual values, the Department introduced the Risk Analysis Process (RAP) in 1992. The RAP relies on probability analysis and the independent evaluation of the model’s variables by an expert panel of economists. The process results in a series of forecasts, with specified probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single or “best guess” estimate. Enhanced forecasting accuracy was achieved in July 1996, when Hickling Lewis Brod Inc. (HLB) working in conjunction with Dr. Dennis Hoffman of Arizona State University, incorporated economic data and independent variables which were not included in the 1986 model. November 2005 1 In September 2005, the Department had HDR/HLB re-examine the structure of the RARF modal and re-evaluate the set of explanatory variables used in the production of the RARF revenue forecasts. Three new variables (U. S. housing start, Sky Harbor passenger traffic and Maricopa County total non-farm employment growth) are added to the existing list of variables used in the RARF regression equations. The independent variables contained in the updated model are: • • • • • • • • Maricopa County real income growth per capita Maricopa County population growth Maricopa County construction employment growth U. S. housing start growth Sky Harbor passenger traffic growth Maricopa County total non- farm employment growth Phoenix Consumer Price Index (CPI) Prime interest rate. Risk Analysis Panel The Risk Analysis Process (RAP) relies heavily on the judgments of an expert panel of economists to provide information critical to the forecasting process. In September 2005, an expert panel of twelve economists representing public, private, and academic sectors provided their individual estimates of the model’s independent variables and comments on the future economic outlook. Model Results Based on the panel’s inputs, the RAP model produced a mean forecast of $14,438.5 million for the period FY 2006-2026. The average compound growth rate (CGR) associated with this forecast was 6.8 percent. The Official Forecast totals $14,397.9 million for the period FY 2006-2026 with an average compound growth rate of 6.9 percent. The Official Forecast incorporates the 50 percent confidence interval for each year of the forecast. The FY 2006 forecast of $339.6 million was developed independently of the econometric model using time series techniques, historical and projected growth rates from the model. The FY 2006 forecast is 7.2 percent over the FY 2005 collections. November 2005 2 Official Forecast Results (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Mean Forecast $344.0 365.5 387.4 412.3 439.3 467.8 500.1 534.4 571.3 610.4 653.0 699.5 748.4 801.1 857.6 918.0 983.4 1,053.6 1,127.8 1,208.7 754.9 Official Forecast $339.6 365.5 387.1 412.0 439.2 467.8 499.7 533.8 570.7 609.9 652.7 698.1 746.7 798.5 855.1 916.2 978.3 1,050.2 1,121.8 1,203.2 751.8 Total Average CGR $14,438.5 6.8% $14,397.9 6.9% Confidence Level N/A 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Note: Amount in current dollars. Totals may not add due to individual rounding. November 2005 3 For comparison purposes, the November 2004 and 2005 Official Forecasts are shown below: FY 2006 Comparative Forecast (Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Nov. 04 Official Forecast $329.0 352.4 377.3 404.6 433.3 465.0 497.7 532.8 570.7 612.3 655.6 702.8 752.6 807.9 865.2 929.8 998.4 1,070.1 1,145.8 1,232.5 770.5 Nov. 05 Official Forecast $339.6 365.5 387.1 412.0 439.2 467.8 499.7 533.8 570.7 609.9 652.7 698.1 746.7 798.5 855.1 916.2 978.3 1,050.2 1,121.8 1,203.2 751.8 Total Average CGR $14,506.3 7.2% $14,397.9 6.9% Difference $10.6 13.1 9.8 7.4 5.9 2.8 2.0 1.0 0.0 (2.4) (2.9) (4.7) (5.9) (9.4) (10.1) (13.6) (20.1) (19.9) (24.0) (29.3) (18.7) ($108.4) Note: Amount in current dollars. Totals may not add due to individual rounding. November 2005 4 Summary The Official Projected RARF Revenue Forecast for FY 2006-2026 totals $14,397.9 million, a decrease of $108.4 million from the November 2004 Official Forecast. The decrease in revenue was a result of the RAP panel members estimating lower growth rates for Maricopa County real per capita income along with higher growth rates for prime rate and Phoenix CPI. Maricopa County construction employment is estimated to be highe r than last year’s inputs while Maricopa County population estimates are higher for FY 2006-2011 and then taper off below last year’s estimates for the FY 2021-2026 time period. U. S. housing starts are expected to see negative growth for FY 2006-2008 and then increase thereafter. The Department expects RARF revenues will continue to increase in FY 2006 due to job, population and personal income growth. However, the impact of the softening housing market could slow the RARF revenues growth over the next couple of years. Supplementary Information The remainder of this report presents supplementary information on the RAP model, the values of the independent variables forecast by the expert panel, and detailed results of the Risk Analysis Process. November 2005 5 RARF Official Revenue Forecast With Category Detail by Fiscal Year (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2006 Retail $170.5 Rental Rental Contracting Utilities Restaurant/ Real Personal Other Bar Property Property $56.8 $22.1 $29.3 $31.2 $12.7 $17.0 Total $339.6 2007 2008 182.3 59.1 21.9 30.1 36.6 16.1 19.4 365.5 195.2 58.1 22.7 32.0 40.4 17.9 20.8 387.1 2009 2010 208.7 223.8 59.4 60.8 23.5 24.4 34.1 36.3 44.3 48.5 19.7 21.7 22.3 23.7 412.0 439.2 2011 239.1 62.0 25.3 38.6 53.6 24.0 25.2 467.8 2012 255.8 64.2 26.3 41.1 59.2 26.4 26.7 499.7 2013 2014 273.0 67.1 27.3 43.6 65.3 29.1 28.4 533.8 292.4 69.5 28.3 46.5 72.0 31.9 30.1 570.7 72.1 $629.1 29.4 $251.2 49.5 $381.1 79.2 $530.3 35.0 $234.5 31.9 $245.5 609.9 $4,625.3 2015 312.8 Total: 06-15 $2,353.6 Note: Totals may not add due to individual rounding. November 2005 6 November 2005 RARF TOTAL TAX REVENUE RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year Mean 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 $344.0 $365.5 $387.4 $412.3 $439.3 $467.8 $500.1 $534.4 $571.3 $610.4 $653.0 $699.5 $748.4 $801.1 $857.6 $918.0 $983.4 $1,053.6 $1,127.8 $1,208.7 $1,294.1 $347.5 $371.3 $396.2 $424.3 $453.6 $484.3 $520.2 $558.5 $599.4 $640.7 $688.8 $740.3 $792.7 $851.9 $916.2 $985.3 $1,058.8 $1,134.7 $1,220.4 $1,312.2 $1,409.8 $346.2 $369.2 $393.1 $420.5 $448.3 $478.3 $513.2 $548.7 $588.5 $630.6 $675.9 $726.8 $778.1 $836.4 $894.9 $959.2 $1,031.4 $1,103.6 $1,186.4 $1,274.1 $1,366.1 $345.4 $367.7 $391.0 $416.8 $444.7 $473.8 $508.4 $542.8 $581.9 $622.1 $668.1 $716.6 $766.2 $821.5 $880.4 $943.7 $1,012.5 $1,085.4 $1,162.3 $1,245.7 $1,334.4 $344.7 $366.5 $389.2 $414.4 $442.0 $470.7 $503.6 $537.7 $576.1 $615.8 $658.8 $706.2 $757.5 $809.0 $868.2 $929.5 $993.6 $1,064.5 $1,139.5 $1,224.7 $1,311.2 $343.9 $365.5 $387.1 $412.0 $439.2 $467.8 $499.7 $533.8 $570.7 $609.9 $652.7 $698.1 $746.7 $798.5 $855.1 $916.2 $978.3 $1,050.2 $1,121.8 $1,203.2 $1,288.8 $343.3 $364.6 $385.5 $409.5 $436.2 $464.4 $495.0 $529.8 $565.0 $604.1 $645.4 $690.5 $737.3 $788.7 $843.0 $901.9 $966.0 $1,034.3 $1,106.9 $1,182.6 $1,267.5 $342.5 $363.3 $383.5 $407.2 $433.1 $460.4 $491.4 $524.4 $560.1 $597.6 $638.1 $681.8 $729.0 $777.9 $830.4 $887.5 $952.6 $1,017.7 $1,088.4 $1,162.2 $1,245.3 $341.6 $361.8 $381.3 $404.4 $429.9 $456.2 $487.1 $518.8 $552.9 $589.1 $629.0 $671.8 $717.3 $766.7 $818.8 $873.9 $935.8 $1,001.8 $1,066.9 $1,142.3 $1,217.0 $340.4 $359.9 $378.9 $401.1 $424.6 $451.4 $480.3 $512.3 $544.5 $579.4 $615.6 $658.0 $703.7 $751.2 $801.1 $855.9 $912.9 $977.1 $1,043.5 $1,114.7 $1,188.6 7 RARF Official Revenue Forecast Revenue Distribution (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year 2006 /2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 /3 TOTALS Regional Area Road Fund (RARF) /1 Freeways Arterial Streets (56.2%) (10.5 %) $277.6 $14.9 205.4 38.4 217.6 40.6 231.6 43.3 246.8 46.1 262.9 49.1 280.9 52.5 300.0 56.0 320.7 59.9 342.7 64.0 366.8 68.5 392.4 73.3 419.6 78.4 448.8 83.8 480.5 90.9 514.9 96.2 549.8 102.7 590.2 110.3 630.5 117.8 676.2 126.3 422.5 78.9 $8,178.4 $1,492.0 Public Transportation Fund (33.3%) $47.1 121.7 128.9 137.2 146.3 155.8 166.4 177.8 190.1 203.1 217.3 232.5 248.6 265.9 283.6 305.1 325.8 349.7 373.6 400.7 250.3 $4,727.5 Total $339.6 365.5 387.1 412.0 439.2 467.8 499.7 533.8 570.7 609.9 652.7 698.1 746.7 798.5 855.1 916.2 978.3 1,050.2 1,121.8 1,203.2 751.8 $14,397.9 Note: 1/ In FY 2005, $7.7 million was transferred from RARF to the RPTA for transit costs. This transfer amount is adjusted annually by the GDP price deflator. Beginning July 1, 2005, this transfer from RARF will be divided equally between MAG and the Public Transportation Fund for planning and administrating the regional transportation plan. 2/ Reflects the current one-half cent transportation excise tax and the extension which begins on January 1, 2006. 3/ Reflects the end of the one-half cent transportation excise tax extension on December 31, 2025. Total may not add due to rounding. Distribution Per Laws 2004, Chapter 2 (HB 2456), the sales tax extension will be distributed as follows: 1. 56.2 percent to the Regional Area Road (RARF) fund for freeways and other routes in the state highway systems, including capital expense and maintenance. 2. 10.5 percent to the RARF fund for major arterial streets and intersection improvements, including capital expense and implementation studies. 3. 33.3 percent to the public transportation fund for: (a). Capital costs, maintenance and operation of public transportation classifications. (b). Capital costs and utility relocation costs associated with a light rail public transit system. November 2005 8 Official Forecast Results (Current Dollars in Millions) Fiscal Year Mean Forecast 2006 2007 2008 80% Conf. Interval 20% Conf. Interval $344.0 365.5 $339.6 365.5 $341.6 361.8 $346.2 369.2 387.4 412.3 439.3 387.1 412.0 439.2 381.3 404.4 429.9 393.1 420.5 448.3 467.8 500.1 467.8 499.7 456.2 487.1 478.3 513.2 534.4 571.3 610.4 533.8 570.7 609.9 518.8 552.9 589.1 548.7 588.5 630.6 653.0 699.5 652.7 698.1 629.0 671.8 675.9 726.8 748.4 801.1 857.6 746.7 798.5 855.1 717.3 766.7 818.8 778.2 836.4 894.9 918.0 983.4 916.2 978.3 873.9 935.8 959.2 1,031.4 1,053.6 1,127.8 1,208.7 1,050.2 1,121.8 1,203.2 1,001.8 1,066.9 1,142.3 1,103.6 1,186.4 1,274.1 754.9 751.8 709.9 796.9 $14,438.6 $14,397.9 $13,857.3 $15,000.4 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 /1 Total Official Forecast Note: 1/ FY 2026 totals are adjusted to reflect the transportation excise tax ends on December 31, 2025. Totals may not add due to individual rounding. Millions of Current Dollars $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Fiscal Year Mean Fcst November 2005 Official Fcst 80% Conf. Interval 20% Conf. Interval 9 Maricopa County Real Income 3.0% 2.5% Growth Rate 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Maricopa County Population 4.0% Growth Rate 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Fiscal Year Median November 2005 Lower 10% Upper 10% 10 Maricopa County Construction Employment 8.0% Growth Rate 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Prime Interest Rate 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% Rate 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Fiscal Year Median November 2005 Lower 10% Upper 10% 11 Phoenix CPI 5.0% Growth Rate 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2024 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% U.S. Housing Start 8.0% 6.0% Growth Rate 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Fiscal Year Median November 2005 Lower 10% Upper 10% 12 Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic 8.0% 7.0% Growth Rate 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2022 2024 2026 Fiscal Year Median Lower 10% Upper 10% Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Fiscal Year Median November 2005 Lower 10% Upper 10% 13 Mean Panelist Data Values Real Income Population Growth /1 Growth /1 FY 2006 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2007 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2008 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2009 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2010 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2011 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2016 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2021 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median FY 2026 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Construction Employment Growth /1 Prime Interest Phoenix Rate CPI Growth U. S. Housing Start Growth Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic Growth Total Non-Farm Employment Growth /1 2.47% 0.77% 1.69% 3.53% 2.85% 3.20% 5.63% 0.96% 3.68% 7.99% 4.61% 6.32% 3.94% 2.16% 2.97% 2.43% -6.18% -1.21% 6.34% 1.76% 4.28% 5.02% 2.73% 3.98% 2.42% 0.48% 1.41% 3.48% 2.75% 3.09% 5.17% -0.07% 2.63% 8.47% 4.41% 6.51% 4.18% 2.19% 3.16% 2.23% -7.33% -2.34% 6.37% 1.49% 4.15% 4.74% 2.07% 3.56% 2.36% 0.31% 1.28% 3.38% 2.62% 2.97% 5.37% -0.75% 2.15% 8.93% 4.45% 6.74% 4.17% 2.03% 2.99% 3.54% -5.46% -0.53% 6.36% 1.44% 4.03% 4.78% 1.75% 3.46% 2.33% 0.18% 1.17% 3.33% 2.51% 2.88% 5.32% -0.55% 2.73% 9.20% 4.38% 6.92% 4.16% 1.89% 2.91% 4.31% -3.96% 0.80% 6.34% 1.29% 3.90% 4.73% 1.56% 3.40% 2.41% 0.14% 1.14% 3.28% 2.46% 2.83% 5.88% -0.78% 2.80% 9.19% 4.37% 7.03% 4.06% 1.84% 2.87% 5.16% -3.37% 1.39% 6.38% 1.26% 3.90% 4.69% 1.34% 3.23% 2.35% 0.05% 1.10% 3.18% 2.36% 2.79% 6.00% -1.46% 2.61% 9.56% 4.47% 6.95% 4.18% 1.77% 2.88% 5.31% -3.77% 1.53% 6.46% 1.17% 3.87% 4.69% 1.18% 3.14% 2.37% -0.03% 0.98% 3.13% 2.06% 2.63% 6.00% -1.63% 2.48% 9.77% 4.60% 7.05% 4.51% 1.73% 2.94% 5.40% -3.42% 1.48% 6.69% 1.01% 3.78% 4.73% 1.08% 2.86% 2.28% -0.14% 0.90% 3.07% 1.80% 2.42% 6.08% -1.75% 2.50% 10.00% 4.55% 7.09% 4.64% 1.73% 2.97% 5.45% -4.45% 1.13% 6.95% 0.92% 3.78% 4.62% 0.88% 2.78% 2.26% -0.16% 0.88% 3.03% 1.58% 2.30% 6.21% -1.79% 2.43% 10.04% 4.53% 7.09% 4.79% 1.69% 2.94% 6.06% -4.69% 1.38% 7.30% 0.54% 3.78% 4.54% 0.80% 2.77% All data in the above table are percentage growth rates with the exception of prime rates which are nominal rates. /1 data are for Maricopa County November 2005 14 Per Capita Income Growth Rate 2006 Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median November 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 2.00% 2.50% 0.20% 0.40% 1.00% 0.80% 2.50% 0.00% 0.80% 3.00% 0.30% 1.00% 4.00% 0.50% 1.50% 4.00% 0.30% 1.80% 4.30% 0.20% 1.50% 3.50% 0.00% 1.00% 3.50% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 1.90% 0.75% 0.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.80% 0.25% 1.40% 1.50% 0.20% 1.25% 1.50% 0.20% 1.00% 1.00% 0.10% 0.80% 1.00% 0.10% 0.70% 0.90% 0.00% 0.60% 0.80% 0.00% 0.50% 1.80% 1.80% 0.80% 0.50% 1.30% 1.00% 2.00% 0.50% 0.90% 2.00% 0.50% 0.80% 2.00% 0.40% 0.70% 2.00% 0.40% 0.70% 2.00% 0.30% 0.50% 2.00% 0.10% 0.50% 2.00% 0.10% 0.50% 2.80% 2.60% 1.00% 0.50% 2.00% 1.80% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 0.00% -0.80% -0.80% -0.80% -0.80% -0.80% -0.80% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 2.70% 2.60% 0.50% 0.40% 1.50% 1.30% 2.30% 2.40% 2.60% 2.70% 2.90% 3.00% 3.00% 0.00% -0.20% -0.50% -0.60% -1.00% -1.20% -1.20% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 0.90% 0.90% 0.90% 0.90% 2.70% 2.60% 1.40% 1.20% 2.00% 2.00% 2.50% 1.00% 2.00% 2.30% 1.00% 1.90% 2.10% 1.00% 1.80% 2.00% 1.00% 1.70% 2.00% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 0.80% 1.50% 2.00% 0.80% 1.50% 2.10% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 0.30% -0.80% -0.80% -0.80% -0.80% -0.80% -0.80% -0.80% -0.80% 1.50% -0.50% -0.50% -0.50% -0.50% -0.50% -0.50% -0.50% -0.50% 3.20% 3.20% 0.40% 0.40% 1.80% 1.80% 3.10% 0.30% 1.80% 3.00% 0.20% 1.60% 2.90% 0.10% 1.50% 2.80% 2.60% 2.40% 2.20% 0.00% -0.20% -0.60% -0.80% 1.40% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 3.20% 3.20% 0.40% 0.40% 1.80% 1.80% 3.10% 0.30% 1.80% 3.00% 0.20% 1.60% 2.90% 0.10% 1.50% 2.80% 2.60% 2.40% 2.20% 0.00% -0.20% -0.60% -0.80% 1.40% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 2.50% 2.50% 1.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 1.00% 0.00% 2.00% 1.50% 3.00% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 0.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.00% 0.80% 0.80% 1.60% 1.60% 2.00% 0.60% 1.50% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 0.00% -0.20% -0.50% -0.50% -0.50% -0.50% 1.00% 0.80% 0.70% 0.70% 0.60% 0.60% 15 Maricopa County Population Growth Rate 2006 Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median November 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 3.50% 3.40% 2.80% 2.50% 3.20% 2.80% 3.50% 2.30% 2.70% 3.40% 2.20% 2.60% 3.30% 2.00% 2.50% 3.30% 1.90% 2.70% 3.40% 1.80% 2.90% 3.50% 1.70% 2.90% 3.50% 1.80% 3.00% 3.40% 3.40% 3.00% 2.90% 3.20% 3.20% 3.30% 2.90% 3.10% 3.30% 2.80% 3.00% 3.30% 2.80% 3.00% 3.20% 2.75% 2.90% 2.80% 2.20% 2.50% 2.80% 2.00% 2.40% 2.70% 2.00% 2.20% 3.40% 3.50% 2.70% 2.60% 3.00% 2.80% 3.50% 2.50% 2.70% 3.60% 2.30% 2.60% 3.60% 2.30% 2.50% 3.50% 2.10% 2.50% 3.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.30% 1.60% 2.00% 3.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.60% 3.60% 2.50% 2.40% 3.00% 3.00% 3.60% 2.30% 3.00% 3.60% 2.30% 3.00% 3.60% 2.30% 3.00% 3.60% 2.30% 3.00% 3.40% 2.20% 2.80% 3.20% 1.80% 2.60% 3.20% 1.80% 2.60% 3.70% 3.50% 2.90% 2.70% 3.30% 3.10% 3.40% 2.60% 3.00% 3.30% 2.50% 2.90% 3.30% 2.50% 2.90% 3.20% 2.40% 2.80% 3.20% 2.20% 2.70% 3.40% 2.00% 2.70% 3.70% 1.50% 2.50% 3.60% 3.60% 2.60% 2.60% 3.20% 3.20% 3.50% 2.50% 3.10% 3.50% 2.50% 3.10% 3.50% 2.50% 3.10% 3.30% 2.30% 3.00% 3.30% 2.20% 3.00% 3.30% 2.00% 2.80% 3.20% 2.00% 2.50% 3.90% 3.90% 3.40% 3.40% 3.70% 3.70% 3.40% 3.00% 3.20% 3.20% 2.80% 3.00% 3.10% 2.70% 2.90% 2.80% 2.60% 2.80% 2.80% 2.00% 2.40% 2.80% 2.00% 2.40% 2.80% 2.00% 2.40% 3.30% 3.20% 2.90% 2.80% 3.20% 3.10% 3.10% 2.60% 2.90% 3.00% 2.50% 2.80% 2.90% 2.50% 2.70% 2.80% 2.40% 2.70% 2.80% 2.00% 2.40% 2.60% 1.50% 2.00% 2.60% 1.00% 1.90% 3.70% 3.60% 3.00% 2.90% 3.40% 3.20% 3.50% 2.80% 3.20% 3.50% 2.50% 3.00% 3.40% 2.40% 3.00% 3.30% 2.20% 2.90% 3.10% 2.10% 2.80% 2.80% 1.90% 2.50% 2.70% 1.60% 2.30% 3.50% 3.50% 2.80% 2.80% 3.00% 3.00% 3.40% 2.70% 2.90% 3.40% 2.70% 2.90% 3.30% 2.60% 2.80% 3.20% 2.60% 2.80% 3.20% 2.00% 2.60% 3.20% 2.00% 2.20% 3.20% 1.50% 2.00% 3.25% 3.15% 2.75% 2.65% 3.00% 2.90% 3.15% 2.65% 2.90% 3.05% 2.55% 2.80% 3.05% 2.55% 2.80% 2.92% 2.48% 2.70% 3.02% 1.98% 2.50% 3.07% 1.33% 2.20% 3.09% 0.91% 2.00% 3.50% 3.40% 2.90% 2.80% 3.20% 3.10% 3.20% 2.60% 2.90% 3.10% 2.50% 2.80% 3.00% 2.40% 2.80% 3.00% 2.30% 2.70% 3.00% 2.00% 2.50% 2.90% 1.80% 2.30% 2.70% 1.80% 2.20% 16 Maricopa County Construction Employment Growth Rate 2006 Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median November 2005 3.00% -5.00% 0.00% 2007 2008 2.00% 2.50% -10.00% -10.00% -5.00% -5.00% 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 6.00% 0.00% 4.00% 6.00% -1.00% 2.00% 6.00% -1.00% 3.00% 6.00% -1.50% 2.50% 6.00% -1.00% 2.00% 5.00% 2.50% 4.00% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% -1.00% 1.50% 3.00% -1.00% 1.50% 3.00% 0.50% 1.75% 2.50% 0.00% 2.00% 2.50% 0.50% 2.00% 2.50% 0.50% 1.75% 2.50% 0.50% 1.50% 3.50% 2.50% 3.00% 3.00% 1.50% 2.50% 3.50% 0.50% 2.50% 3.00% -5.00% 2.00% 3.50% -5.00% 2.00% 4.00% -5.00% 2.00% 4.00% -5.00% 2.00% 4.50% -5.00% 2.00% 5.00% -5.00% 2.00% 5.00% -5.00% 2.00% 4.00% -5.00% 1.00% 6.00% -5.00% 0.00% 7.00% -5.00% 1.50% 10.00% -5.00% 1.50% 10.00% -5.00% 1.50% 10.00% -5.00% 2.00% 10.00% -5.00% 2.00% 10.00% -5.00% 2.00% 4.00% -1.00% 1.50% 4.50% -1.30% 1.80% 5.00% -1.90% 2.20% 5.30% -2.30% 2.50% 6.00% -3.00% 2.60% 6.50% -3.50% 2.80% 7.50% -4.50% 3.00% 8.00% -5.00% 3.00% 9.00% -6.00% 3.00% 10.00% 3.00% 5.00% 10.00% 3.00% 5.00% 10.00% 2.50% 5.00% 8.00% 2.00% 4.00% 8.00% 1.50% 4.00% 8.00% 0.00% 3.50% 8.00% 0.00% 3.50% 8.00% 0.00% 3.50% 8.00% 0.00% 3.50% 10.00% 5.00% 8.00% 8.00% 3.00% 6.00% 6.40% 1.40% 4.40% 6.50% 1.50% 4.50% 5.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% 0.00% 2.50% 2.50% -0.50% 0.00% 2.50% -0.50% 1.00% 2.50% -0.50% 1.00% 4.00% -2.00% 1.70% 4.50% -2.50% 1.50% 5.00% -2.50% 1.20% 5.50% -2.80% 1.70% 7.00% -3.40% 1.90% 8.00% -4.00% 2.00% 10.00% -5.00% 2.00% 10.00% -5.00% 2.00% 10.00% -5.00% 2.00% 8.00% 4.50% 6.00% 8.00% 2.50% 4.50% 10.00% 0.00% 3.50% 10.00% -1.00% 3.50% 10.00% -3.00% 3.00% 10.00% -5.00% 3.00% 10.00% -5.00% 2.50% 10.00% -5.00% 2.50% 10.00% -5.00% 2.50% 7.00% 0.00% 5.00% 6.00% 2.50% 4.50% 5.00% 2.50% 4.00% 4.00% 2.50% 3.00% 4.00% 2.50% 3.00% 4.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.00% 2.50% 2.70% 3.00% 2.50% 2.70% 3.00% 2.50% 2.70% 4.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 8.00% 6.00% 3.00% 7.00% 5.00% 3.00% 7.00% 5.00% 3.00% 7.00% 5.00% 3.00% 7.00% 5.00% 3.00% 7.00% 5.00% 3.00% 7.00% 5.00% 3.00% 7.00% 5.00% 4.00% -1.00% 2.00% 4.00% -2.50% 1.80% 4.00% -2.50% 1.50% 4.50% -2.50% 1.50% 5.00% -3.00% 1.80% 5.50% -3.50% 2.00% 5.50% -3.50% 2.00% 5.50% -4.00% 2.00% 5.50% -4.00% 2.00% 17 Prime Interest Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median November 2005 2006 2007 2008 9.17% 3.43% 6.30% 9.67% 3.93% 6.80% 10.17% 4.43% 7.30% 7.00% 4.50% 5.50% 8.50% 3.00% 6.00% 6.50% 4.50% 6.00% 7.50% 4.00% 7.00% 2011 2016 2021 2026 10.47% 10.87% 4.73% 5.13% 7.60% 8.00% 11.39% 5.21% 8.30% 11.60% 5.10% 8.30% 12.00% 4.50% 8.30% 12.00% 4.50% 8.30% 8.50% 3.50% 6.50% 9.00% 4.50% 7.00% 9.00% 5.00% 7.00% 9.00% 5.00% 7.00% 9.00% 5.00% 7.00% 9.00% 5.00% 7.00% 9.00% 4.50% 7.50% 10.00% 10.00% 4.00% 4.00% 7.50% 8.00% 11.00% 3.70% 7.00% 12.00% 3.70% 7.00% 12.00% 3.50% 7.00% 12.00% 3.50% 7.00% 10.00% 10.00% 4.50% 5.00% 6.50% 7.00% 10.00% 10.00% 4.50% 4.80% 7.50% 7.50% 10.00% 4.80% 7.50% 10.00% 4.80% 7.50% 10.00% 4.80% 7.50% 10.00% 4.80% 7.50% 8.50% 5.50% 7.50% 9.00% 4.50% 6.00% 9.25% 4.25% 6.00% 9.75% 4.50% 6.25% 10.00% 4.25% 6.25% 10.25% 4.00% 6.25% 10.50% 4.00% 6.00% 11.00% 3.75% 6.00% 11.50% 3.50% 6.00% 6.50% 3.00% 5.00% 6.50% 3.00% 5.20% 7.00% 3.00% 5.50% 7.00% 3.00% 5.50% 7.00% 3.00% 5.60% 8.00% 3.50% 5.70% 9.00% 3.50% 6.00% 10.00% 4.00% 6.50% 10.00% 4.00% 6.50% 9.00% 5.00% 7.00% 9.50% 5.50% 7.50% 10.30% 6.30% 8.30% 9.70% 5.60% 7.60% 8.60% 4.60% 6.60% 8.20% 4.20% 6.20% 7.50% 3.50% 5.50% 7.50% 3.50% 5.50% 7.50% 3.50% 5.50% 9.00% 4.00% 7.00% 9.00% 4.00% 7.00% 10.00% 3.50% 6.50% 10.00% 10.00% 4.00% 4.00% 7.00% 7.50% 11.00% 5.00% 7.50% 11.00% 5.00% 8.00% 11.00% 5.00% 8.00% 11.00% 5.00% 8.00% 6.60% 6.00% 6.40% 6.80% 5.50% 6.40% 6.80% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 4.50% 5.50% 7.00% 4.00% 5.50% 7.50% 4.00% 5.00% 7.50% 4.00% 5.00% 8.00% 4.00% 5.00% 8.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 5.50% 5.80% 7.00% 5.00% 5.90% 7.50% 4.50% 6.00% 8.00% 4.00% 6.50% 8.00% 4.00% 6.90% 8.00% 4.50% 7.20% 8.50% 7.00% 8.00% 8.50% 7.50% 8.00% 8.50% 7.50% 8.00% 9.17% 3.43% 6.30% 9.67% 3.93% 6.80% 10.17% 4.43% 7.30% 10.47% 10.87% 4.73% 5.13% 7.60% 8.00% 11.39% 5.21% 8.30% 11.60% 5.10% 8.30% 12.00% 4.50% 8.30% 12.00% 4.50% 8.30% 8.50% 6.50% 7.00% 8.50% 6.00% 7.00% 8.50% 5.00% 7.00% 9.00% 4.50% 7.50% 9.00% 4.50% 7.50% 9.00% 4.50% 8.00% 9.00% 4.50% 8.00% 9.00% 4.50% 8.00% 10.00% 4.00% 6.00% 2009 2010 9.00% 5.00% 7.00% 9.00% 4.50% 7.50% 18 U. S. Housing Start Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median November 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 -0.33% -12.67% -6.50% -0.20% -8.40% -4.30% 2.40% -5.00% -1.30% 5.77% -6.57% -0.40% 6.87% -5.47% 0.70% 6.89% -5.29% 0.80% 5.74% 5.37% 9.25% -3.54% -11.37% -9.25% 1.10% -3.00% 0.00% 3.50% -1.00% 2.00% 3.50% -1.00% 1.00% 4.00% 0.00% 1.00% 3.50% -2.00% 0.00% 4.00% -1.00% 1.00% 4.00% -1.00% 1.00% 4.00% -1.00% 1.00% 4.00% -1.00% 1.00% 4.00% -1.00% 1.00% 2.00% -10.00% 1.50% 2.00% -5.00% 1.00% 3.00% -6.00% 1.00% 3.50% -5.00% 1.00% 4.00% -5.00% 1.00% 4.00% -5.00% 1.00% 4.50% -5.00% 1.00% 5.00% -5.00% 1.00% 5.50% -5.00% 1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 5.00% -15.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% -5.00% 3.00% 5.00% -5.00% 3.00% 6.00% -5.00% 3.00% 6.00% -5.00% 2.00% 6.00% -5.00% 1.00% 6.00% -5.00% 1.00% 6.00% -5.00% 1.00% 2.00% -6.50% 0.00% 3.00% -8.00% 0.20% 3.10% -5.50% 0.50% 3.50% -6.00% 0.50% 4.00% -6.00% 0.50% 4.80% -7.00% 0.50% 5.50% 6.00% 8.00% -7.50% -10.00% -12.00% 0.20% 0.10% 0.00% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.00% 0.00% 2.50% 4.00% 0.00% 2.50% 4.50% 0.00% 2.50% 4.50% -2.00% 2.50% 5.00% -2.00% 2.50% 5.00% -2.00% 2.50% 6.00% -5.00% 2.50% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% -5.00% -15.00% -5.00% -0.50% -10.00% -5.00% 5.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 0.00% 1.50% 5.00% 0.00% 2.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2.00% -1.00% -10.00% -6.00% -0.50% -8.00% -3.00% 2.00% -6.00% 0.00% 4.00% -5.00% 0.00% 6.00% -5.00% 2.00% 6.00% -6.00% 1.00% 6.00% -6.00% 1.00% 6.00% -8.00% 1.00% 6.00% -8.00% 1.00% 1.00% -3.00% -1.00% 1.00% 3.00% -6.00% -10.00% -3.00% -5.00% 3.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% -5.00% 1.00% 5.00% -8.00% 1.00% 5.00% -5.00% 1.00% 5.00% -5.00% 1.00% 5.00% -5.00% 1.00% 5.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -10.00% -10.00% -5.00% -5.00% 3.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 9.00% -3.00% 3.00% 9.00% -3.00% 3.00% 9.00% -3.00% 3.00% 9.00% -3.00% 3.00% 9.00% -3.00% 3.00% 9.00% -3.00% 3.00% 9.00% -3.00% 3.00% 9.00% -3.00% 3.00% 9.00% -3.00% 3.00% -1.00% -1.00% 2.00% -10.00% -10.00% -5.00% -5.00% -6.00% -1.00% 2.50% -5.00% 0.00% 3.50% -5.00% 0.50% 4.50% -5.00% 0.50% 5.00% -5.00% 1.00% 5.00% -5.00% 1.00% 5.00% -5.00% 1.00% 19 Sky Harbor Passenger Traffic Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median November 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 6.91% -1.71% 2.60% 7.81% -0.81% 3.50% 7.81% -0.81% 3.50% 7.81% -0.81% 3.50% 7.63% 0.37% 4.00% 7.79% 0.21% 4.00% 7.80% 0.20% 4.00% 8.00% 0.10% 4.00% 10.35% -2.35% 4.00% 6.00% 4.00% 5.50% 6.00% 3.50% 5.00% 5.50% 3.50% 4.75% 5.50% 3.00% 4.50% 5.00% 2.50% 4.00% 5.00% 2.00% 4.00% 5.00% 1.75% 4.00% 5.00% 1.50% 4.00% 5.00% 1.50% 4.00% 4.50% -0.10% 3.00% 4.50% -0.10% 3.50% 4.50% -0.10% 3.50% 4.50% -0.20% 3.50% 5.00% -0.20% 3.50% 5.50% -0.20% 3.50% 6.00% -0.20% 3.50% 6.50% -0.20% 3.50% 6.50% -0.20% 3.50% 9.00% 2.00% 6.00% 9.00% 2.00% 4.50% 8.60% 2.00% 4.50% 8.00% 2.00% 4.50% 8.00% 2.00% 4.50% 8.00% 2.00% 4.50% 8.00% 2.00% 4.50% 8.00% 2.00% 4.50% 8.00% 2.00% 4.50% 5.60% 1.00% 4.00% 5.90% 0.80% 4.20% 6.50% 0.70% 4.30% 7.00% 0.60% 4.30% 7.50% 0.50% 4.30% 7.80% 0.40% 4.30% 8.30% 0.30% 4.40% 8.50% 0.20% 4.50% 10.00% 0.00% 4.60% 6.00% 3.00% 4.50% 6.20% 2.50% 4.30% 6.40% 2.50% 4.30% 6.80% 2.30% 4.20% 7.00% 2.00% 4.20% 7.00% 2.00% 4.00% 8.00% 1.50% 3.50% 10.00% 1.00% 3.50% 10.00% 0.00% 3.50% 6.50% 1.50% 4.00% 6.00% 1.00% 3.50% 5.50% 0.50% 3.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2.50% 5.00% 0.00% 2.50% 5.00% 0.00% 2.50% 4.50% -0.50% 2.00% 4.50% -0.50% 2.00% 4.50% -0.50% 2.00% 6.50% 0.50% 3.50% 7.00% 0.50% 4.00% 7.00% 0.50% 4.00% 7.00% 0.50% 4.00% 7.00% 0.00% 4.00% 7.00% 0.00% 4.00% 8.00% 0.00% 4.00% 8.00% 0.00% 4.00% 8.00% 0.00% 4.00% 4.20% 3.20% 3.50% 4.20% 3.00% 3.60% 4.10% 3.00% 3.50% 4.10% 2.80% 3.40% 4.00% 2.70% 3.40% 4.00% 2.50% 3.30% 4.00% 2.10% 3.20% 4.00% 2.00% 3.10% 4.00% 1.50% 3.00% 9.00% 3.00% 6.00% 8.00% 2.00% 5.00% 8.00% 2.00% 5.00% 8.00% 2.00% 5.00% 8.00% 2.00% 5.00% 8.00% 2.00% 5.00% 8.00% 2.00% 5.00% 8.00% 2.00% 5.00% 8.00% 2.00% 5.00% 5.50% 3.00% 4.50% 5.50% 2.00% 4.50% 6.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 2.00% 3.50% 6.00% 2.00% 3.50% 6.00% 2.00% 3.50% 6.00% 2.00% 3.50% 6.00% 2.00% 3.50% 6.00% 2.00% 3.50% 20 Maricopa County Total Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median November 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 3.50% 2.00% 2.80% 3.50% 1.00% 2.00% 4.50% 1.00% 3.50% 5.50% 1.00% 4.30% 6.00% 1.00% 4.00% 6.00% 1.00% 4.00% 6.00% 1.00% 3.00% 6.00% 1.00% 3.50% 6.00% 1.00% 4.00% 5.50% 3.50% 4.50% 5.50% 2.50% 4.00% 5.00% 2.00% 4.00% 4.00% 2.00% 3.50% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 2.00% 3.00% 3.25% 1.75% 2.75% 3.00% 1.50% 2.50% 2.50% 1.50% 2.25% 4.00% 3.00% 3.80% 3.70% 1.00% 3.50% 3.70% 1.00% 3.00% 3.50% 0.50% 3.00% 3.30% 0.50% 3.00% 3.30% 0.00% 3.00% 3.00% 0.00% 3.00% 2.50% 0.00% 3.00% 2.00% 0.00% 3.00% 5.80% 2.00% 3.80% 5.20% 1.80% 3.70% 5.80% 1.60% 3.60% 6.00% 1.00% 3.50% 6.20% 0.50% 3.40% 6.40% 0.50% 3.30% 7.00% 0.50% 2.50% 7.00% 0.50% 2.50% 7.00% 0.50% 2.50% 5.10% 2.20% 4.10% 4.80% 1.60% 3.60% 5.00% 1.30% 3.50% 5.10% 1.10% 3.40% 5.00% 0.80% 3.20% 4.80% 0.60% 3.00% 4.60% 0.40% 2.90% 5.20% 0.20% 2.70% 5.50% -0.20% 2.60% 5.00% 2.00% 4.00% 5.00% 2.00% 4.00% 4.80% 1.50% 3.80% 4.80% 1.50% 3.70% 4.60% 1.20% 3.50% 4.50% 1.00% 3.30% 5.00% 1.00% 3.00% 5.00% 0.50% 3.00% 5.00% 0.50% 3.00% 5.50% 3.20% 4.30% 3.50% 2.30% 2.90% 3.70% 1.40% 2.70% 3.70% 1.40% 2.70% 3.80% 1.40% 2.70% 3.60% 1.30% 2.60% 3.90% 1.60% 2.90% 2.90% 1.00% 1.90% 2.90% 1.00% 1.90% 6.50% 2.00% 4.10% 6.00% 1.70% 3.80% 5.80% 1.50% 3.60% 5.50% 1.30% 3.40% 5.00% 1.00% 3.00% 5.50% 0.50% 2.80% 6.00% 0.20% 2.60% 6.00% -0.40% 2.60% 6.00% -0.60% 2.60% 5.10% 3.40% 4.30% 5.20% 3.00% 3.80% 5.40% 2.30% 3.20% 5.20% 2.10% 3.00% 5.10% 1.50% 2.90% 5.00% 1.20% 2.80% 4.80% 1.00% 2.50% 4.60% 0.80% 2.40% 4.40% 0.40% 2.20% 4.20% 3.50% 4.00% 4.20% 3.40% 3.90% 4.10% 3.40% 3.90% 4.00% 3.30% 3.80% 4.00% 3.20% 3.70% 4.00% 3.00% 3.60% 4.00% 2.50% 3.00% 4.00% 2.50% 3.00% 4.00% 2.50% 3.00% 5.50% 2.50% 4.00% 6.00% 2.00% 3.50% 6.00% 2.00% 3.50% 6.00% 2.00% 3.50% 6.00% 2.00% 3.50% 6.00% 2.00% 3.50% 6.00% 2.00% 3.50% 6.00% 2.00% 3.50% 6.00% 2.00% 3.50% 4.50% 3.50% 4.10% 4.30% 2.50% 4.00% 3.50% 2.00% 3.20% 3.40% 1.50% 3.00% 3.30% 1.00% 2.80% 3.20% 1.00% 2.80% 3.20% 1.00% 2.70% 3.20% 1.00% 2.70% 3.20% 1.00% 2.70% 21 Phoenix CPI Growth Rate Panelist 1 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 2 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 3 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 4 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 5 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 6 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 7 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 8 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 9 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 10 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 11 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median Panelist 12 Upper 10% Lower 10% Median November 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 4.00% 2.60% 3.30% 5.50% 2.80% 4.50% 4.40% 2.00% 3.10% 3.90% 1.40% 2.60% 3.08% 1.72% 2.40% 3.61% 1.79% 2.70% 4.20% 1.60% 2.90% 4.29% 1.51% 2.90% 4.21% 1.59% 2.90% 4.00% 2.50% 3.00% 4.00% 2.25% 3.00% 3.75% 2.00% 2.80% 3.75% 2.00% 2.80% 4.00% 2.00% 2.90% 4.00% 2.00% 2.90% 4.00% 2.00% 2.90% 4.00% 2.00% 2.90% 4.00% 2.00% 2.90% 3.10% 2.00% 2.70% 3.50% 1.80% 2.80% 4.00% 1.70% 2.90% 4.50% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% 1.50% 3.00% 5.00% 1.20% 3.00% 7.00% 1.20% 3.00% 8.00% 1.00% 3.00% 10.00% 1.00% 3.00% 5.00% 1.70% 3.20% 5.20% 1.70% 3.20% 5.50% 1.80% 3.20% 5.50% 2.00% 3.20% 5.50% 2.00% 3.20% 5.50% 2.00% 3.20% 5.50% 2.00% 3.20% 5.50% 2.00% 3.20% 5.50% 2.00% 3.20% 3.40% 2.00% 2.80% 3.50% 1.90% 2.80% 3.60% 1.70% 2.70% 3.70% 1.60% 2.60% 3.80% 1.50% 2.60% 3.90% 1.40% 2.50% 4.00% 1.30% 2.50% 4.50% 1.20% 2.50% 4.80% 1.00% 2.50% 3.50% 2.00% 2.70% 3.40% 2.00% 2.80% 3.40% 2.00% 2.80% 3.50% 1.80% 2.80% 3.50% 1.80% 2.80% 3.50% 1.60% 2.80% 4.00% 1.50% 2.90% 4.00% 1.50% 2.90% 4.00% 1.50% 2.90% 6.00% 2.50% 3.50% 6.10% 3.10% 4.10% 6.40% 3.40% 4.40% 6.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 2.50% 3.50% 4.90% 2.40% 3.40% 5.00% 2.50% 3.50% 4.80% 2.80% 3.80% 4.50% 2.50% 3.50% 3.30% 1.90% 2.60% 3.00% 1.80% 2.70% 3.00% 1.60% 2.80% 3.20% 1.50% 2.90% 3.40% 1.50% 2.90% 3.60% 1.50% 2.90% 4.20% 1.50% 3.00% 4.10% 1.60% 3.00% 4.00% 1.60% 3.00% 3.40% 2.70% 3.10% 3.60% 2.40% 2.80% 3.80% 2.00% 2.40% 4.00% 1.80% 2.30% 4.00% 1.60% 2.40% 4.20% 1.40% 2.40% 4.20% 1.00% 2.40% 4.50% 1.00% 2.40% 4.50% 1.00% 2.40% 2.90% 2.60% 2.80% 3.00% 2.50% 2.70% 3.00% 2.40% 2.60% 2.90% 2.40% 2.50% 2.90% 2.30% 2.50% 2.70% 2.30% 2.50% 2.70% 2.30% 2.50% 2.70% 2.30% 2.50% 2.70% 2.30% 2.50% 5.00% 1.00% 3.00% 6.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 2.00% 4.00% 3.70% 2.40% 2.90% 3.40% 2.00% 2.50% 3.20% 1.80% 2.20% 3.00% 1.70% 2.20% 3.00% 1.70% 2.20% 3.20% 1.70% 2.20% 3.30% 1.80% 2.50% 3.30% 1.80% 2.50% 3.30% 1.80% 2.50% 22 HISTORICAL DATA GROWTH IN REAL INCOME PER CAPITA Using Phoenix CPI to Measure Inflation (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 3.0% 1.0% -4.6% -3.0% 1.6% 4.2% 3.0% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -0.6% -1.2% -2.5% 0.0% 4.7% 3.1% 2.0% 1.1% 1.3% 0.4% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 0.1% -3.3% -1.9% -0.6% -0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 1.5% 1.1% 2000 2.4% 2001 1.6% 2002 -0.6% 2003 -0.1% 2004 0.0% 2005* 1.2% 2006 2007 2008 2009 *Estimate HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Percent Change 6.0% 0.06 4.0% 0.04 2.0% 0.02 0.0% 0 -2.0% -0.02 -4.0% -0.04 2002 2003 2004 2005 2001 2002 2000 2003 1999 1998 2000 2001 1997 1996 1998 1999 1979 1978 1980 1981 1981 1980 1982 1983 1983 1982 1984 1985 1985 1984 1986 1987 1987 1986 1988 1989 1988 1990 1991 1991 1990 1992 1993 1993 1992 1994 1995 1995 1994 1996 1997 1977 1976 1979 1978 1975 1974 1977 1976 1972 1975 1973 1974 -6.0% -0.06 Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2005 Historical Min. Max. Mean -0.6% 1.6% 0.4% -0.6% 2.4% 0.8% -4.6% 4.7% 0.5% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 0.9% -0.4% 1.4% 0.9% -0.2% 1.7% 2.1% -2.4% 3.0% 23 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 3.6% 4.7% 5.9% 6.4% 5.2% 3.0% 2.1% 3.9% 4.4% 4.9% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 4.4% 3.0% 2.9% 3.2% 4.4% 5.3% 4.2% 4.5% 2.9% 2.6% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1.4% 3.1% 3.4% 3.8% 4.9% 5.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* 2006 2007 2008 2009 3.0% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9% 3.3% 3.1% FY 2004 and prior from Bureau of Economic Analysis. * FY 2005 and 2006 from Greater Phoenix Blue Chip. FY 2007 and after ADOT staff estimates. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED 0.07 Percent Change 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 0 Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2005 Historical Min. Max. Mean 2.9% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 4.0% 3.3% 1.4% 6.4% 3.8% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 0.2% 3.0% 3.3% 0.4% 3.0% 3.8% 1.1% 2.9% 5.1% 24 HISTORICAL DATA MARICOPA COUNTY GROWTH IN CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 17.3% 17.3% 7.5% -8.1% -14.6% -0.2% 24.5% 31.5% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 16.1% 0.2% -4.7% 0.7% 14.5% 21.0% 13.9% 2.1% -5.6% -7.2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 -7.1% -6.4% -3.6% 2.8% 10.9% 15.0% 12.3% 7.7% 7.1% 8.7% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* 2006 2007 2008 2009 7.4% 7.7% 3.7% 0.4% 4.6% 4.0% FY 2004 and prior from Bureau of Economic Analysis. * FY 2005 and 2006 from Greater Phoenix Blue Chip. FY 2007 and after ADOT staff estimates. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2003 2000 2001 2002 1997 1996 1998 2001 1998 1999 2000 1984 1984 1985 1991 1986 1986 1987 1993 1988 1988 1989 1990 1995 1990 1991 1992 1992 1993 1997 1994 1994 1995 1999 1996 1982 1982 1983 1989 1987 1980 1981 1976 1977 1976 1985 1979 1978 1974 1975 1974 1983 1981 1972 1973 1972 1962 1964 1965 1975 1964 1966 1967 1977 1966 1968 1969 1968 1979 1970 1971 1970 0.4 0.7 70.0% 0.6 60.0% 0.3 0.5 50.0% 0.4 40.0% 0.2 0.3 30.0% 0.2 20.0% 0.1 0.1 10.0% 0 0 0.0% -0.1 -10.0% -0.1 -0.2 -20.0% -0.3 -30.0% -0.2 1962 1963 1973 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Fiscal Year Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2005 Historical Min. Max. 0.4% 7.7% 0.4% 12.3% -14.6% 31.5% Mean 4.1% 6.4% 5.9% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 2.6% 1.7% 6.4% 3.3% 3.3% 9.1% 10.3% -6.9% 17.3% 25 HISTORICAL DATA PRIME INTEREST RATE HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.8% 5.9% 6.9% 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 8.4% 6.7% 5.4% 6.1% 9.6% 9.8% 7.2% 6.6% 7.7% 10.9% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 15.0% 16.6% 17.5% 12.0% 11.3% 11.4% 9.2% 7.7% 15.0% 10.6% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 10.3% 9.5% 7.2% 6.0% 6.2% 8.4% 8.5% 8.3% 8.5% 8.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 8.6% 8.7% 5.3% 4.4% 4.0% 5.2% FY 2005 and prior from Federal Reserve, July 2004. FY 2006 and after from Global Insight, First Quarter 2005, Trend Forecast. 2003 2005 2002 2000 2003 2001 1999 2001 1998 1997 1999 1996 1994 1997 1995 1993 1995 1992 1991 1993 1990 1989 1991 1988 1987 1989 1986 1985 1987 1984 1985 1983 1982 1981 1983 1980 1981 1979 1978 1979 1977 1976 1975 1977 1974 1975 1973 1972 1973 1971 1970 1971 1969 1968 1969 1967 1966 1967 1965 1964 20.0% 20.0% 18.0% 18.0% 16.0% 16.0% 14.0% 14.0% 12.0% 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1965 1963 1962 Percent Change Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Fiscal Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2005 Historical Min. Max. 4.0% 8.7% 4.0% 8.7% 4.0% 17.5% Mean 5.5% 7.0% 8.4% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 1.9% 4.2% 7.4% 2.0% 4.4% 8.6% 3.3% 4.9% 12.0% 26 HISTORICAL DATA PHOENIX CPI GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 6.1% 5.6% 7.6% 11.7% 11.1% 7.7% 7.7% 10.7% 13.7% 13.6% 10.0% 5.5% 3.5% 4.6% 4.2% 2.9% 3.4% 4.3% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 4.9% 4.7% 3.4% 3.1% 3.6% 4.0% 4.6% 4.9% 4.4% 3.9% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* 2006 2007 2008 2009 3.4% 2.4% 1.8% 1.7% 2.4% 2.8% * Estimate 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 1973 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2005 Historical Min. Max. 1.7% 2.8% 1.7% 4.9% 1.7% 13.7% Mean 2.2% 3.2% 5.6% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 0.4% 1.8% 2.6% 1.2% 1.8% 4.6% 3.3% 2.5% 11.0% 27 HISTORICAL DATA US HOUSING START GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1.1% 1.6% -3.4% -9.3% -7.9% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 -10.3% -14.1% 0.3% 12.4% 10.3% 2.4% 0.7% 4.2% 4.7% 5.4% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* 2006 2007 2008 2009 -1.5% -1.2% 4.3% 7.4% 7.1% -0.3% FY 2004 and prior from U.S. Bureau of Census. * FY 2005 estimate from Global Insight, First Quarter 2005, Trend Forecast. HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Percent Change 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.1 0.12 0.05 0.1 0 0.08 -0.05 0.06 -0.1 0.04 -0.15 0.02 2004 2005 2002 2000 2003 2002 2004 2001 1998 1996 2000 1997 1992 1998 1994 1999 1996 1990 1988 1995 1992 1984 1993 1986 1994 1991 1982 1980 1990 1987 1976 1988 1978 1989 1986 1974 1972 1985 -0.2 0 Fiscal Fiscal Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2005 Historical Min. Max. -1.2% 7.4% -1.5% 7.4% -14.1% 12.4% Mean 3.5% 3.1% 0.7% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 4.0% -0.8% 7.3% 3.4% -1.2% 7.1% 6.8% -9.3% 7.4% 28 HISTORICAL DATA SKY HARBOR PASSENGER TRAFFIC GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 3.6% 8.4% 12.2% 8.4% 2.4% 5.7% 12.2% 16.1% 18.7% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 5.0% -2.8% 6.8% 13.9% 20.6% 24.8% 19.6% 14.8% 10.9% 8.1% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 6.4% 3.4% 0.9% 3.3% 7.7% 8.6% 8.9% 4.8% 2.2% 4.6% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* 2006 2007 2008 2009 6.5% 2.7% -0.7% 2.8% 5.4% 4.6% * Historical data and FY 2005 estimate obtained from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. FY 2006 and after ADOT staff estimates. 2004 2005 2002 2003 2000 2001 1998 1999 1996 1997 1994 1995 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1985 1986 1983 1984 1981 1982 1979 1980 1977 1978 1976 1975 1974 1973 0.16 0.3 0.14 0.25 0.12 0.2 0.1 0.15 0.08 0.1 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.020 -0.05 0 1972 1971 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Fiscal Year Year HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2005 Historical Min. Max. -0.7% 5.4% -0.7% 8.9% -2.8% 24.8% Mean 3.0% 4.2% 8.1% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 2.4% 0.7% 5.1% 2.6% 1.9% 6.8% 6.3% 2.3% 17.7% 29 HISTORICAL DATA - MARICOPA COUNTY TOTAL NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATE (Annual Percent Change) HISTORICAL DATA BY FISCAL YEAR (July 1 through June 30) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 5.5% 5.5% 4.9% 6.8% 5.8% 5.1% 8.6% 7.8% 5.9% 8.5% 11.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.5% 6.9% 11.1% 11.8% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 6.9% 3.4% 1.5% 2.9% 8.6% 10.2% 6.9% 4.1% 4.7% 4.1% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 3.0% 5.8% 7.0% 7.2% 6.2% 5.4% 5.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* 2006 2007 2008 2009 4.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.7% 2.4% 3.8% FY 1963 to FY 2004 from Bureau of Labor Statistics. * FY 2005 and after ADOT staff estimates. 2004 2005 2001 2002 2003 1999 2000 1993 1996 1995 1998 1997 1987 1992 1989 1994 1991 1981 1988 1983 1990 1985 1986 1979 1975 1984 1977 1973 1982 1967 1978 1969 1980 1971 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 -0.02 1974 1963 1976 1965 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 1972 Percent Change HISTORICAL DATA - GRAPHED Fiscal Fiscal YearYear HISTORICAL DATA - ANALYSIS Period 5 Years 10 Years Full Period November 2005 Historical Min. Max. 0.6% 4.0% 0.6% 7.2% 0.0% 11.8% Mean 2.0% 4.1% 5.2% Std. 80% Range Dev. Lower Upper 1.4% 0.6% 3.4% 2.5% 0.7% 7.0% 3.1% 0.7% 8.6% 30